20260916_ATL@CHC
20260916_ATL@CHC.json • 2026-09-16
ATL 5 - CHC 7
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Harris II: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Mauricio Dubón: R current=0 box=1; Ha-Seong Kim: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=5, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Busch: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: BB current=1 box=0; Pedro Ramirez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting walks match CHC pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting hits match CHC pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ATL PA=38 matches CHC BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting walks match ATL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting hits match ATL pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHC PA=32 matches ATL BF=32. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.493 -> 0.527 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.493133, 'sample_size': 334, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5599, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.526516, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ATL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.540/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 7, CHC 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 5 - CHC 7. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-05-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.535473, 'artifact': '20260915_ATL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.523824, 'artifact': '20260914_ATL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1456, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.078, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0678, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_ATL@CHC. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@CHC. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0173, 'away_run_delta': 0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01737043610542093}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016742445737479395}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016560547227566086}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016454432702909614}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016308021753123}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03518278940067432, '1': 0.055891370196939134, '2': 0.08034483858400907, '3': 0.10451291153191407, '4': 0.12302139531280097, '5': 0.13103583740753313, '6': 0.12629852147328305, '7': 0.11015524543926061, '8': 0.08693823850259473, '9': 0.06208908053687597, '10': 0.040125306107591394, '11': 0.023464982065993886, '12': 0.012417118698916877, '13': 0.005945935267137071, '14': 0.002576429474475707}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.036487417335731714, '1': 0.0579063671474223, '2': 0.08299380351999093, '3': 0.10742396305597975, '4': 0.12557200402920968, '5': 0.13256248404318066, '6': 0.12638181702965204, '7': 0.10881398358144803, '8': 0.08460986021980967, '9': 0.059414630230255255, '10': 0.03767922598599815, '11': 0.02157976446814746, '12': 0.011161628946813726, '13': 0.005213682914026966, '14': 0.002199367492333698}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.1086, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.008, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0678} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1456, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.078, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0678, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 5 - 7 CHC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 5 - 7 CHC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 5-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-7, final 5-7 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 12. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CHC wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting walks match CHC pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting hits match CHC pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ATL PA=38 matches CHC BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting walks match ATL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting hits match ATL pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHC PA=32 matches ATL BF=32. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.493 -> 0.527 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.493133, 'sample_size': 334, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5599, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.526516, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ATL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.540/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 7, CHC 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 5 - CHC 7. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-05-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.535473, 'artifact': '20260915_ATL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.523824, 'artifact': '20260914_ATL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1456, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.078, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0678, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_ATL@CHC. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@CHC. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0173, 'away_run_delta': 0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01737043610542093}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016742445737479395}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016560547227566086}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016454432702909614}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016308021753123}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03518278940067432, '1': 0.055891370196939134, '2': 0.08034483858400907, '3': 0.10451291153191407, '4': 0.12302139531280097, '5': 0.13103583740753313, '6': 0.12629852147328305, '7': 0.11015524543926061, '8': 0.08693823850259473, '9': 0.06208908053687597, '10': 0.040125306107591394, '11': 0.023464982065993886, '12': 0.012417118698916877, '13': 0.005945935267137071, '14': 0.002576429474475707}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.036487417335731714, '1': 0.0579063671474223, '2': 0.08299380351999093, '3': 0.10742396305597975, '4': 0.12557200402920968, '5': 0.13256248404318066, '6': 0.12638181702965204, '7': 0.10881398358144803, '8': 0.08460986021980967, '9': 0.059414630230255255, '10': 0.03767922598599815, '11': 0.02157976446814746, '12': 0.011161628946813726, '13': 0.005213682914026966, '14': 0.002199367492333698}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.1086, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.008, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0678} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1456, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.078, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0678, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 5 - 7 CHC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 5 - 7 CHC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 5-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-7, final 5-7 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 12. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CHC wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Harris II: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Mauricio Dubón: R current=0 box=1; Ha-Seong Kim: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=5, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Busch: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: BB current=1 box=0; Pedro Ramirez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.7715445393139193 | 5.679446048976188 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 6 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 6 | 0.530 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 7 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 7 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 7 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 5 | 7 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | ATL | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | ATL | pitching | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | CHC | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CHC | pitching | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | ATL | batting | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | ATL | pitching | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 7 | 32 | 145 | |||||||||
| simulation | CHC | batting | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2 | |||||||
| simulation | CHC | pitching | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 9.0 | 5 | 38 | 159 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | ATL | DH | Drake Baldwin | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | RF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | 2B | Ozzie Albies | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | 1B | Matt Olson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | CF | Michael Harris II | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | C | Sean Murphy | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ATL | LF | Mauricio Dubón | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | SS | Ha-Seong Kim | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | ATL | 3B | Austin Riley | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHC | 1B | Michael Busch | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | RF | Seiya Suzuki | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | SS | Nico Hoerner | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | 3B | Alex Bregman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | CF | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | LF | Ian Happ | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | 2B | Pedro Ramirez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHC | DH | Michael Conforto | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | CHC | C | Carson Kelly | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | ATL | 1 | RF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ATL | 2 | DH | Drake Baldwin | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ATL | 3 | 1B | Matt Olson | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 |
| simulation | ATL | 4 | 2B | Ozzie Albies | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | ATL | 5 | CF | Michael Harris II | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ATL | 6 | LF | Mauricio Dubón | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ATL | 7 | 3B | Austin Riley | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ATL | 8 | C | Sean Murphy | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ATL | 9 | SS | Ha-Seong Kim | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | CHC | 1 | CF | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHC | 2 | RF | Seiya Suzuki | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 |
| simulation | CHC | 3 | 1B | Michael Busch | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHC | 4 | 3B | Alex Bregman | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHC | 5 | LF | Ian Happ | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHC | 6 | SS | Nico Hoerner | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHC | 7 | DH | Michael Conforto | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | CHC | 8 | 2B | Pedro Ramirez | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHC | 9 | C | Carson Kelly | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | ATL | 1 | JR Ritchie | Starter | 4.1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8.31 | 4.50 | 1.43 |
| current | ATL | 2 | Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.23 | 1.05 |
| current | ATL | 4 | Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 2.73 | 1.14 |
| current | ATL | 5 | Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.81 | 0.89 |
| current | CHC | 1 | Shota Imanaga | Starter | 5.1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8.44 | 3.88 | 1.12 |
| current | CHC | 2 | Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.91 | 1.26 |
| current | CHC | 3 | Jacob Webb | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.53 | 1.27 |
| current | CHC | 4 | Ryan Zeferjahn | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.09 | 1.29 |
| current | CHC | 5 | Caleb Thielbar | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.63 | 1.29 |
| simulation | ATL | 1 | JR Ritchie | Starter | 4.1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 80 | 10.38 | 4.50 | 1.43 |
| simulation | ATL | 2 | Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 13.50 | 2.73 | 1.14 |
| simulation | ATL | 3 | Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 2.81 | 0.89 |
| simulation | ATL | 4 | Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 0.00 | 2.23 | 1.05 |
| simulation | CHC | 1 | Shota Imanaga | Starter | 5.1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 91 | 8.44 | 3.88 | 1.12 |
| simulation | CHC | 2 | Jacob Webb | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 3.53 | 1.27 |
| simulation | CHC | 3 | Ryan Zeferjahn | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 4.09 | 1.29 |
| simulation | CHC | 4 | Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0.00 | 3.91 | 1.26 |
| simulation | CHC | 5 | Caleb Thielbar | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0.00 | 4.63 | 1.29 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | JR Ritchie | Starter | 4.1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 80 |
| ATL | Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 33 |
| ATL | Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 24 |
| ATL | Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| CHC | Shota Imanaga | Starter | 5.1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 91 |
| CHC | Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| CHC | Jacob Webb | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 21 |
| CHC | Ryan Zeferjahn | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| CHC | Caleb Thielbar | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260916_BAL@NYM
20260916_BAL@NYM.json • 2026-09-16
BAL 5 - NYM 7
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: 3B current=0 box=1; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: HR current=0 box=1; Dylan Beavers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Rece Hinds: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; 2B: current=1, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: H current=1 box=0; Jared Young: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brett Baty: SO current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting walks match NYM pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting home runs match NYM pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting hits match NYM pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BAL PA=37 matches NYM BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting walks match BAL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting home runs match BAL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting hits match BAL pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYM PA=34 matches BAL BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.605 -> 0.582 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.605469, 'sample_size': 364, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5577, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.581584, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BAL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYM current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.540/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 7, NYM 8. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 5 - NYM 7. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'BAL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260915_BAL@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.627507, 'artifact': '20260914_BAL@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYM', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 7 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 7 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0324, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.038, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0576, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_BAL@NYM. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@NYM. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.5, 'home_run_delta': -0.0225, 'away_run_delta': 0.0225, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0163164121749971}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01578524042146223}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015621518701873508}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015456737592015225}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015354445877736916}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02694014743182345, '1': 0.04307000645250115, '2': 0.0631058477248246, '3': 0.08473912457840053, '4': 0.10428408636235428, '5': 0.11761746307801073, '6': 0.121575278888312, '7': 0.1151697544348803, '8': 0.09998878859987387, '9': 0.07955800282421185, '10': 0.05801444441051379, '11': 0.03877109816022502, '12': 0.023746508673353355, '13': 0.0133294162575533, '14': 0.006857127016388197, '15': 0.0032329051067732833}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03804985247619366, '1': 0.06031455515576007, '2': 0.08613890496984228, '3': 0.1108369661593198, '4': 0.12849255905244178, '5': 0.1342083055387153, '6': 0.126295789885398, '7': 0.10707952090717714, '8': 0.08179599337432726, '9': 0.05629446659713662, '10': 0.03490659213415397, '11': 0.01950101697254575, '12': 0.009815561189427115, '13': 0.004451240655057202, '14': 0.0018186749325042138}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.0793, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.312, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0576} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 7 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 7 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0324, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.038, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0576, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 5 - 7 NYM. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 5 - 7 NYM. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYM, simulation=NYM, published=NYM. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYM wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 5-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-7, final 5-7 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 12. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYM wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BAL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYM wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting walks match NYM pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting home runs match NYM pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting hits match NYM pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BAL PA=37 matches NYM BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting walks match BAL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting home runs match BAL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting hits match BAL pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYM PA=34 matches BAL BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.605 -> 0.582 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.605469, 'sample_size': 364, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5577, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.581584, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BAL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYM current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.540/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 7, NYM 8. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 5 - NYM 7. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'BAL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260915_BAL@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.627507, 'artifact': '20260914_BAL@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYM', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 7 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 7 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0324, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.038, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0576, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_BAL@NYM. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@NYM. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.5, 'home_run_delta': -0.0225, 'away_run_delta': 0.0225, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0163164121749971}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01578524042146223}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015621518701873508}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015456737592015225}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015354445877736916}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02694014743182345, '1': 0.04307000645250115, '2': 0.0631058477248246, '3': 0.08473912457840053, '4': 0.10428408636235428, '5': 0.11761746307801073, '6': 0.121575278888312, '7': 0.1151697544348803, '8': 0.09998878859987387, '9': 0.07955800282421185, '10': 0.05801444441051379, '11': 0.03877109816022502, '12': 0.023746508673353355, '13': 0.0133294162575533, '14': 0.006857127016388197, '15': 0.0032329051067732833}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03804985247619366, '1': 0.06031455515576007, '2': 0.08613890496984228, '3': 0.1108369661593198, '4': 0.12849255905244178, '5': 0.1342083055387153, '6': 0.126295789885398, '7': 0.10707952090717714, '8': 0.08179599337432726, '9': 0.05629446659713662, '10': 0.03490659213415397, '11': 0.01950101697254575, '12': 0.009815561189427115, '13': 0.004451240655057202, '14': 0.0018186749325042138}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.0793, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.312, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0576} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 7 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 7 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0324, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.038, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0576, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 5 - 7 NYM. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 5 - 7 NYM. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYM, simulation=NYM, published=NYM. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYM wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 5-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-7, final 5-7 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 12. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYM wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BAL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYM wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: 3B current=0 box=1; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: HR current=0 box=1; Dylan Beavers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Rece Hinds: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; 2B: current=1, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: H current=1 box=0; Jared Young: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brett Baty: SO current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.036866082537121 | 4.930136276270159 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 6 | 0.530 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 7 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 7 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 7 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 5 | 7 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| NYM | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | BAL | batting | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | BAL | pitching | 8 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 8.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | NYM | batting | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | NYM | pitching | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | BAL | batting | 34 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | BAL | pitching | 8 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 8.1 | 7 | 34 | 131 | |||||||||
| simulation | NYM | batting | 33 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | NYM | pitching | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 9.0 | 5 | 37 | 158 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | BAL | DH | Coby Mayo | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | 1B | Pete Alonso | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | 3B | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | LF | Dylan Beavers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | SS | Gunnar Henderson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | C | Samuel Basallo | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | BAL | 2B | Jeremiah Jackson | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | BAL | RF | Rece Hinds | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | BAL | CF | Colton Cowser | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | NYM | RF | Carson Benge | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | 1B | Jared Young | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | LF | Juan Soto | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | CF | A.J. Ewing | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | 3B | Bo Bichette | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | DH | Brett Baty | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | NYM | SS | Francisco Lindor | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | 2B | Marcus Semien | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | C | Luis Torrens | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | BAL | 1 | LF | Dylan Beavers | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 2 | 1B | Pete Alonso | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 3 | SS | Gunnar Henderson | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 4 | DH | Coby Mayo | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BAL | 5 | 3B | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BAL | 6 | C | Samuel Basallo | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | BAL | 7 | 2B | Jeremiah Jackson | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 8 | RF | Rece Hinds | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | BAL | 9 | CF | Colton Cowser | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 |
| simulation | NYM | 1 | SS | Francisco Lindor | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYM | 2 | LF | Juan Soto | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | NYM | 3 | 3B | Bo Bichette | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | NYM | 4 | RF | Carson Benge | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 5 | 1B | Jared Young | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 6 | 2B | Marcus Semien | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 7 | CF | A.J. Ewing | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | NYM | 8 | DH | Brett Baty | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 9 | C | Luis Torrens | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | BAL | 1 | Chris Bassitt | Starter | 5.0 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.20 | 4.88 | 1.59 |
| current | BAL | 3 | Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.38 | 0.90 |
| current | BAL | 4 | Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.35 | 0.91 |
| current | BAL | 6 | Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.66 | 1.39 |
| current | NYM | 1 | Xzavion Curry | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.80 | 3.44 | 1.31 |
| current | NYM | 2 | Daniel Duarte | Setup Man | 1.1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20.25 | 2.12 | 0.81 |
| current | NYM | 4 | Kodai Senga | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 7.05 | 1.60 |
| current | NYM | 5 | Nathan Lavender | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.59 | 0.88 |
| simulation | BAL | 1 | Chris Bassitt | Starter | 5.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 86 | 9.00 | 4.88 | 1.59 |
| simulation | BAL | 2 | Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.66 | 1.39 |
| simulation | BAL | 3 | Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 2.38 | 0.90 |
| simulation | BAL | 4 | Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 6.75 | 2.35 | 0.91 |
| simulation | NYM | 1 | Xzavion Curry | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 91 | 1.80 | 3.44 | 1.31 |
| simulation | NYM | 2 | Kodai Senga | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 7.05 | 1.60 |
| simulation | NYM | 3 | Daniel Duarte | Setup Man | 1.1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 20.25 | 2.12 | 0.81 |
| simulation | NYM | 4 | Nathan Lavender | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 0.00 | 1.59 | 0.88 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Chris Bassitt | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 86 |
| BAL | Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| BAL | Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| BAL | Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| NYM | Xzavion Curry | Starter | 5.0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 91 |
| NYM | Daniel Duarte | Setup Man | 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 27 |
| NYM | Kodai Senga | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| NYM | Nathan Lavender | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 24 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260916_BOS@TEX
20260916_BOS@TEX.json • 2026-09-16
BOS 6 - TEX 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jahmai Jones: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Willson Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Trevor Story: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Nate Eaton: BB current=0 box=1; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Corey Seager: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Josh Jung: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Elias Díaz: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brandon Nimmo: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Wyatt Langford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting walks match TEX pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting home runs match TEX pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting hits match TEX pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BOS PA=40 matches TEX BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting walks match BOS pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting hits match BOS pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TEX PA=37 matches BOS BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.478 -> 0.514 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.478051, 'sample_size': 665, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5504, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.514225, 'published_confidence': 0.527872, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BOS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TEX current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.528. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.528. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.472. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.491/0.674. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 6, TEX 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 6 - TEX 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for BOS. | {'winner_confidence': 0.52787235, 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.515162, 'artifact': '20260915_BOS@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_BOS@TEX. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@TEX. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': -8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.05, 'away_run_delta': 0.05, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023566633917082327}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022829896822194707}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02211650941330357}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022093126195061784}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021425105925154116}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0540389966879564, '1': 0.0846470289694046, '2': 0.11665270351162603, '3': 0.141434885750081, '4': 0.15086792815774264, '5': 0.14158457949515343, '6': 0.11689976308107533, '7': 0.0849160830959147, '8': 0.054268138212894654, '9': 0.03051255239319142, '10': 0.015093529245242427, '11': 0.006568734516687378, '12': 0.0025150768830298703}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06030801558289463, '1': 0.09402519158291643, '2': 0.12776784064832203, '3': 0.15132372467078956, '4': 0.1562070494693996, '5': 0.14054078515921678, '6': 0.1102077817626688, '7': 0.07532346431769224, '8': 0.04487003936293158, '9': 0.02329650405422261, '10': 0.01054224724827715, '11': 0.0041579932517526895, '12': 0.0014293628889158712}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.9172, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.124, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.6396} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 6 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 6 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0576, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.124, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6396, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 181. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 181. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 6 - 5 TEX. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 6 - 5 TEX. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.528. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BOS wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: BOS wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BOS wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TEX wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting walks match TEX pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting home runs match TEX pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting hits match TEX pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BOS PA=40 matches TEX BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting walks match BOS pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting hits match BOS pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TEX PA=37 matches BOS BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.478 -> 0.514 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.478051, 'sample_size': 665, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5504, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.514225, 'published_confidence': 0.527872, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BOS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TEX current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.528. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.528. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.472. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.491/0.674. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 6, TEX 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 6 - TEX 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for BOS. | {'winner_confidence': 0.52787235, 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.515162, 'artifact': '20260915_BOS@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_BOS@TEX. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@TEX. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': -8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.05, 'away_run_delta': 0.05, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023566633917082327}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022829896822194707}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02211650941330357}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022093126195061784}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021425105925154116}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0540389966879564, '1': 0.0846470289694046, '2': 0.11665270351162603, '3': 0.141434885750081, '4': 0.15086792815774264, '5': 0.14158457949515343, '6': 0.11689976308107533, '7': 0.0849160830959147, '8': 0.054268138212894654, '9': 0.03051255239319142, '10': 0.015093529245242427, '11': 0.006568734516687378, '12': 0.0025150768830298703}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06030801558289463, '1': 0.09402519158291643, '2': 0.12776784064832203, '3': 0.15132372467078956, '4': 0.1562070494693996, '5': 0.14054078515921678, '6': 0.1102077817626688, '7': 0.07532346431769224, '8': 0.04487003936293158, '9': 0.02329650405422261, '10': 0.01054224724827715, '11': 0.0041579932517526895, '12': 0.0014293628889158712}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.9172, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.124, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.6396} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 6 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 6 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0576, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.124, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6396, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 181. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 181. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 6 - 5 TEX. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 6 - 5 TEX. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.528. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BOS wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: BOS wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BOS wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TEX wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jahmai Jones: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Willson Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Trevor Story: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Nate Eaton: BB current=0 box=1; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Corey Seager: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Josh Jung: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Elias Díaz: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brandon Nimmo: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Wyatt Langford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.162640013783492 | 4.179941725854382 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.528 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 6 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 6 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 6 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | BOS | batting | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | BOS | pitching | 7 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | TEX | batting | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | TEX | pitching | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | BOS | batting | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | BOS | pitching | 7 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 9.0 | 5 | 37 | 170 | |||||||||
| simulation | TEX | batting | 34 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | TEX | pitching | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9.0 | 6 | 40 | 181 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | BOS | LF | Roman Anthony | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | DH | Jahmai Jones | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | BOS | 1B | Willson Contreras | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | RF | Wilyer Abreu | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | SS | Trevor Story | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | CF | Nate Eaton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | BOS | C | Adley Rutschman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | 2B | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | BOS | 3B | Caleb Durbin | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TEX | 2B | Justin Foscue | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TEX | SS | Corey Seager | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | 1B | Jake Burger | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | CF | Ezequiel Duran | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | 3B | Josh Jung | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | DH | Elias Díaz | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TEX | RF | Brandon Nimmo | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | LF | Wyatt Langford | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TEX | C | Danny Jansen | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | BOS | 1 | LF | Roman Anthony | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BOS | 2 | DH | Jahmai Jones | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BOS | 3 | RF | Wilyer Abreu | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 4 | 1B | Willson Contreras | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | BOS | 5 | C | Adley Rutschman | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | BOS | 6 | 3B | Caleb Durbin | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BOS | 7 | SS | Trevor Story | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | BOS | 8 | 2B | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 9 | CF | Nate Eaton | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TEX | 1 | 2B | Justin Foscue | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | TEX | 2 | SS | Corey Seager | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TEX | 3 | 3B | Josh Jung | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TEX | 4 | 1B | Jake Burger | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TEX | 5 | RF | Brandon Nimmo | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TEX | 6 | LF | Wyatt Langford | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TEX | 7 | CF | Ezequiel Duran | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | TEX | 8 | DH | Elias Díaz | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | TEX | 9 | C | Danny Jansen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | BOS | 1 | Jake Bennett | Starter | 5.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.76 | 3.69 | 1.07 |
| current | BOS | 2 | Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.42 | 1.07 |
| current | BOS | 3 | Erik Miller | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.09 | 1.25 |
| current | BOS | 4 | Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 1.81 | 0.83 |
| current | TEX | 1 | MacKenzie Gore | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 4.62 | 1.35 |
| current | TEX | 2 | Jacob Latz | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.60 | 0.76 |
| current | TEX | 3 | Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.21 | 1.43 |
| current | TEX | 4 | Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.68 | 1.17 |
| current | TEX | 5 | Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40.50 | 3.37 | 1.27 |
| simulation | BOS | 1 | Jake Bennett | Starter | 5.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 21 | 95 | 4.76 | 3.69 | 1.07 |
| simulation | BOS | 2 | Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 0.00 | 1.42 | 1.07 |
| simulation | BOS | 3 | Erik Miller | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0.00 | 2.09 | 1.25 |
| simulation | BOS | 4 | Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 18.00 | 1.81 | 0.83 |
| simulation | TEX | 1 | MacKenzie Gore | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 100 | 5.40 | 4.62 | 1.35 |
| simulation | TEX | 2 | Jacob Latz | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 0.00 | 1.60 | 0.76 |
| simulation | TEX | 3 | Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.68 | 1.17 |
| simulation | TEX | 4 | Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0.00 | 3.21 | 1.43 |
| simulation | TEX | 5 | Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 40.50 | 3.37 | 1.27 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | Jake Bennett | Starter | 5.2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 95 |
| BOS | Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 28 |
| BOS | Erik Miller | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 20 |
| BOS | Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 27 |
| TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 100 |
| TEX | Jacob Latz | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 29 |
| TEX | Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| TEX | Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| TEX | Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260916_CHW@CLE
20260916_CHW@CLE.json • 2026-09-16
CHW 4 - CLE 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randal Grichuk: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tommy Pham: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2; Colson Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Kyle Teel: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brenton Doyle: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: 2B current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Travis Bazzana: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; David Fry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Angel Genao: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; José Ramírez: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Austin Hedges: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brayan Rocchio: H current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting walks match CLE pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting home runs match CLE pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting hits match CLE pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHW PA=40 matches CLE BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting walks match CHW pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting home runs match CHW pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting hits match CHW pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CLE PA=33 matches CHW BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.565 -> 0.567 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.56508, 'sample_size': 334, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5689, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.56699, 'published_confidence': 0.556513, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHW current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CLE current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.443. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.557. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.557. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.549/0.741. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 9, CLE 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 4 - CLE 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 10, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544573, 'artifact': '20260915_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505654, 'artifact': '20260914_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260809', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260809_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260808', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.7, 'artifact': '20260808_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260807', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.517443, 'artifact': '20260807_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0454, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.202, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1101, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_CHW@CLE. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@CLE. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0115, 'away_run_delta': 0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02096912506082598}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020789023710197366}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019718257295206917}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01960158258485394}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01954889950080167}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04325311790650724, '1': 0.06829716236690934, '2': 0.09641134558534721, '3': 0.12167290362016003, '4': 0.1372776524784499, '5': 0.13846692865452961, '6': 0.12486264144885746, '7': 0.10066053184604958, '8': 0.07254812070305423, '9': 0.046744805463985, '10': 0.026926554823326995, '11': 0.01386655144821223, '12': 0.0063840515923426246, '13': 0.002627632062268433}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05462373661868563, '1': 0.08552558380705494, '2': 0.11770901774525712, '3': 0.1424040923475909, '4': 0.1514377856473097, '5': 0.14156147446412448, '6': 0.11632014917778986, '7': 0.08401636151839258, '8': 0.05334231198060195, '9': 0.029770000826462382, '10': 0.014604439854759765, '11': 0.006297816588318595, '12': 0.002387229423652174}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3159, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.272, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1101} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0454, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.202, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1101, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 121. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 121. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 4 - 5 CLE. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 4 - 5 CLE. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.557. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CLE wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHW wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CLE wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting walks match CLE pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting home runs match CLE pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting hits match CLE pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHW PA=40 matches CLE BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting walks match CHW pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting home runs match CHW pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting hits match CHW pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CLE PA=33 matches CHW BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.565 -> 0.567 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.56508, 'sample_size': 334, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5689, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.56699, 'published_confidence': 0.556513, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHW current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CLE current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.443. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.557. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.557. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.549/0.741. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 9, CLE 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 4 - CLE 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 10, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544573, 'artifact': '20260915_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505654, 'artifact': '20260914_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260809', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260809_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260808', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.7, 'artifact': '20260808_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260807', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.517443, 'artifact': '20260807_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0454, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.202, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1101, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_CHW@CLE. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@CLE. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0115, 'away_run_delta': 0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02096912506082598}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020789023710197366}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019718257295206917}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01960158258485394}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01954889950080167}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04325311790650724, '1': 0.06829716236690934, '2': 0.09641134558534721, '3': 0.12167290362016003, '4': 0.1372776524784499, '5': 0.13846692865452961, '6': 0.12486264144885746, '7': 0.10066053184604958, '8': 0.07254812070305423, '9': 0.046744805463985, '10': 0.026926554823326995, '11': 0.01386655144821223, '12': 0.0063840515923426246, '13': 0.002627632062268433}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05462373661868563, '1': 0.08552558380705494, '2': 0.11770901774525712, '3': 0.1424040923475909, '4': 0.1514377856473097, '5': 0.14156147446412448, '6': 0.11632014917778986, '7': 0.08401636151839258, '8': 0.05334231198060195, '9': 0.029770000826462382, '10': 0.014604439854759765, '11': 0.006297816588318595, '12': 0.002387229423652174}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3159, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.272, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1101} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0454, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.202, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1101, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 121. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 121. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 4 - 5 CLE. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 4 - 5 CLE. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.557. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CLE wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHW wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CLE wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randal Grichuk: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tommy Pham: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2; Colson Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Kyle Teel: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brenton Doyle: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: 2B current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Travis Bazzana: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; David Fry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Angel Genao: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; José Ramírez: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Austin Hedges: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brayan Rocchio: H current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.830711205926704 | 5.338968034018156 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.557 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CHW | batting | 31 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CHW | pitching | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 8.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | CLE | batting | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CLE | pitching | 9 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | CHW | batting | 36 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | CHW | pitching | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 8.0 | 5 | 33 | 121 | |||||||||
| simulation | CLE | batting | 31 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | CLE | pitching | 9 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 40 | 171 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CHW | LF | Randal Grichuk | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | 1B | Miguel Vargas | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | DH | Tommy Pham | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | CHW | 3B | Colson Montgomery | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHW | C | Kyle Teel | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | RF | Tristan Peters | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHW | CF | Brenton Doyle | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHW | 2B | Chase Meidroth | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | SS | Luisangel Acuña | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | CLE | DH | Travis Bazzana | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | 1B | David Fry | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | CLE | 2B | Angel Genao | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | 3B | José Ramírez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | C | Austin Hedges | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CLE | RF | Jo Adell | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | LF | Steven Kwan | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | SS | Brayan Rocchio | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CLE | CF | Petey Halpin | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | CHW | 1 | 2B | Chase Meidroth | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHW | 2 | LF | Randal Grichuk | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHW | 3 | 1B | Miguel Vargas | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHW | 4 | DH | Tommy Pham | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.600 |
| simulation | CHW | 5 | C | Kyle Teel | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHW | 6 | CF | Brenton Doyle | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 |
| simulation | CHW | 7 | 3B | Colson Montgomery | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHW | 8 | SS | Luisangel Acuña | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHW | 9 | RF | Tristan Peters | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CLE | 1 | LF | Steven Kwan | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CLE | 2 | 3B | José Ramírez | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CLE | 3 | RF | Jo Adell | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CLE | 4 | DH | Travis Bazzana | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | CLE | 5 | 1B | David Fry | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CLE | 6 | 2B | Angel Genao | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CLE | 7 | C | Austin Hedges | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CLE | 8 | CF | Petey Halpin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CLE | 9 | SS | Brayan Rocchio | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CHW | 1 | Anthony Kay | Starter | 4.2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.64 | 4.53 | 1.37 |
| current | CHW | 2 | Grant Taylor | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.40 | 1.03 |
| current | CHW | 4 | Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.77 | 1.11 |
| current | CLE | 1 | Parker Messick | Starter | 6.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | 2.51 | 1.03 |
| current | CLE | 2 | Cade Smith | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.13 | 1.02 |
| current | CLE | 3 | Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 2.63 | 1.15 |
| current | CLE | 4 | Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.62 | 1.03 |
| simulation | CHW | 1 | Anthony Kay | Starter | 4.2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 23 | 88 | 9.64 | 4.53 | 1.37 |
| simulation | CHW | 2 | Grant Taylor | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0.00 | 2.40 | 1.03 |
| simulation | CHW | 3 | Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 2.77 | 1.11 |
| simulation | CLE | 1 | Parker Messick | Starter | 6.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 3.00 | 2.51 | 1.03 |
| simulation | CLE | 2 | Cade Smith | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 0.00 | 2.13 | 1.02 |
| simulation | CLE | 3 | Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 18.00 | 2.63 | 1.15 |
| simulation | CLE | 4 | Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 2.62 | 1.03 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | Anthony Kay | Starter | 4.2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 88 |
| CHW | Grant Taylor | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| CHW | Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21 |
| CLE | Parker Messick | Starter | 6.0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 114 |
| CLE | Cade Smith | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 27 |
| CLE | Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 22 |
| CLE | Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260916_DET@TOR
20260916_DET@TOR.json • 2026-09-16
DET 7 - TOR 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Max Clark: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; John Peck: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=6, sim=4). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brett Bateman: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; George Springer: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: SO current=0 box=1; Myles Straw: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Josh Smith: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | DET | BATTING_REALISM | current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | DET | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:DET batting walks match TOR pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:DET batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:DET batting hits match TOR pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:DET batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:DET PA=39 matches TOR BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting walks match DET pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting home runs match DET pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting hits match DET pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TOR PA=38 matches DET BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.754 -> 0.656 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.753922, 'sample_size': 271, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5572, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.655561, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | DET current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | DET current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TOR current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.584/0.781. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: DET 10, TOR 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: DET 7 - TOR 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for DET; cap=0.58, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'DET', 'opponent_team': 'TOR', 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 9, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-05-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TOR'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.562215, 'artifact': '20260915_DET@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505654, 'artifact': '20260914_DET@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'DET', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'output_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'simulation_score_winner': 'DET', 'final_score_winner': 'DET', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 7 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 7 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.015, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.07, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6, 'draw_majority_team': 'DET', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8535, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_DET@TOR. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@TOR. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017624688071098158}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.017161487913340826}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016719212558420984}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01665883451177642}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016384933125405027}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.052439092515736606, '1': 0.08223924092372004, '2': 0.1137419402416088, '3': 0.138733002345789, '4': 0.14923014166717985, '5': 0.14156338248892464, '6': 0.11843032588506962, '7': 0.08737607483308418, '8': 0.05685121510405944, '9': 0.03262154945948508, '10': 0.01650771767507126, '11': 0.007366939335701419, '12': 0.0028993775245701285}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.024252362114450286, '1': 0.038855052489601055, '2': 0.05729248105190064, '3': 0.07775072251691481, '4': 0.09711088480734281, '5': 0.11163183473302427, '6': 0.11810407652366621, '7': 0.11500014488772108, '8': 0.1030596256972612, '9': 0.08500322597396684, '10': 0.0645266218472363, '11': 0.045081579541158046, '12': 0.028987849184751207, '13': 0.017154953137314424, '14': 0.009343718648790206, '15': 0.004683889528601243, '16': 0.0021609773162993575}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.7746, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.0, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.8535} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 7 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 7 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.015, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.07, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6, 'draw_majority_team': 'DET', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8535, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | current:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 7 - 4 TOR. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 7 - 4 TOR. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=DET, simulation=DET, published=DET. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): DET wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: DET wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | DET wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TOR wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | DET | BATTING_REALISM | current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | DET | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:DET batting walks match TOR pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:DET batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:DET batting hits match TOR pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:DET batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:DET PA=39 matches TOR BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting walks match DET pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting home runs match DET pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting hits match DET pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TOR PA=38 matches DET BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.754 -> 0.656 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.753922, 'sample_size': 271, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5572, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.655561, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | DET current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | DET current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TOR current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.584/0.781. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: DET 10, TOR 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: DET 7 - TOR 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for DET; cap=0.58, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'DET', 'opponent_team': 'TOR', 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 9, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-05-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TOR'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.562215, 'artifact': '20260915_DET@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505654, 'artifact': '20260914_DET@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'DET', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'output_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'simulation_score_winner': 'DET', 'final_score_winner': 'DET', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 7 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 7 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.015, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.07, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6, 'draw_majority_team': 'DET', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8535, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_DET@TOR. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@TOR. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017624688071098158}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.017161487913340826}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016719212558420984}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01665883451177642}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016384933125405027}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.052439092515736606, '1': 0.08223924092372004, '2': 0.1137419402416088, '3': 0.138733002345789, '4': 0.14923014166717985, '5': 0.14156338248892464, '6': 0.11843032588506962, '7': 0.08737607483308418, '8': 0.05685121510405944, '9': 0.03262154945948508, '10': 0.01650771767507126, '11': 0.007366939335701419, '12': 0.0028993775245701285}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.024252362114450286, '1': 0.038855052489601055, '2': 0.05729248105190064, '3': 0.07775072251691481, '4': 0.09711088480734281, '5': 0.11163183473302427, '6': 0.11810407652366621, '7': 0.11500014488772108, '8': 0.1030596256972612, '9': 0.08500322597396684, '10': 0.0645266218472363, '11': 0.045081579541158046, '12': 0.028987849184751207, '13': 0.017154953137314424, '14': 0.009343718648790206, '15': 0.004683889528601243, '16': 0.0021609773162993575}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.7746, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.0, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.8535} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 7 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 7 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.015, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.07, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6, 'draw_majority_team': 'DET', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8535, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | current:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 7 - 4 TOR. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 7 - 4 TOR. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=DET, simulation=DET, published=DET. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): DET wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: DET wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | DET wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TOR wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Max Clark: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; John Peck: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=6, sim=4). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brett Bateman: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; George Springer: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: SO current=0 box=1; Myles Straw: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Josh Smith: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.749045808427526 | 3.5738166866842787 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 6 | 4 | 0.580 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 7 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 7 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 7 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 7 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | DET | batting | 31 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | DET | pitching | 7 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | TOR | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | TOR | pitching | 10 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | DET | batting | 37 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | DET | pitching | 7 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9.0 | 4 | 38 | 160 | |||||||||
| simulation | TOR | batting | 34 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | TOR | pitching | 10 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 9.0 | 7 | 39 | 157 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | DET | DH | Colt Keith | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | DET | 3B | Kevin McGonigle | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | 2B | Hao-Yu Lee | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | LF | Riley Greene | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | RF | Brett Callahan | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | DET | C | Dillon Dingler | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | CF | Max Clark | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | DET | SS | John Peck | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | DET | 1B | Spencer Torkelson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | TOR | CF | Brett Bateman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | RF | Nathan Lukes | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | DH | George Springer | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | SS | Ernie Clement | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | 1B | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | LF | Myles Straw | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | TOR | 3B | Kazuma Okamoto | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | 2B | Josh Smith | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TOR | C | Brandon Valenzuela | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | DET | 1 | 3B | Kevin McGonigle | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 2 | 2B | Hao-Yu Lee | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | DET | 3 | DH | Colt Keith | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 4 | LF | Riley Greene | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | DET | 5 | C | Dillon Dingler | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | DET | 6 | CF | Max Clark | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 7 | 1B | Spencer Torkelson | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | DET | 8 | RF | Brett Callahan | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | DET | 9 | SS | John Peck | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TOR | 1 | CF | Brett Bateman | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TOR | 2 | RF | Nathan Lukes | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | TOR | 3 | 1B | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TOR | 4 | DH | George Springer | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | TOR | 5 | 3B | Kazuma Okamoto | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TOR | 6 | 2B | Josh Smith | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | TOR | 7 | SS | Ernie Clement | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TOR | 8 | C | Brandon Valenzuela | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TOR | 9 | LF | Myles Straw | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | DET | 1 | Keider Montero | Starter | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.76 | 3.55 | 1.03 |
| current | DET | 2 | Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.69 | 1.21 |
| current | DET | 3 | Kenley Jansen | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 1.07 |
| current | DET | 4 | Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.71 | 1.52 |
| current | TOR | 1 | Max Scherzer | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 6.38 | 1.37 |
| current | TOR | 2 | Spencer Miles | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.71 | 1.06 |
| current | TOR | 3 | Louis Varland | Closer | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 1.32 | 1.01 |
| current | TOR | 4 | Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 1.73 | 1.15 |
| simulation | DET | 1 | Keider Montero | Starter | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 102 | 4.76 | 3.55 | 1.03 |
| simulation | DET | 2 | Kenley Jansen | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 1.07 |
| simulation | DET | 3 | Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 2.69 | 1.21 |
| simulation | DET | 4 | Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 9.00 | 3.71 | 1.52 |
| simulation | TOR | 1 | Max Scherzer | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 87 | 7.20 | 6.38 | 1.37 |
| simulation | TOR | 2 | Louis Varland | Closer | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 6.75 | 1.32 | 1.01 |
| simulation | TOR | 3 | Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 18.00 | 1.73 | 1.15 |
| simulation | TOR | 4 | Spencer Miles | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 2.71 | 1.06 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Keider Montero | Starter | 5.2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 102 |
| DET | Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 |
| DET | Kenley Jansen | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| DET | Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 |
| TOR | Max Scherzer | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 87 |
| TOR | Spencer Miles | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| TOR | Louis Varland | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 30 |
| TOR | Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260916_KC@HOU
20260916_KC@HOU.json • 2026-09-16
KC 5 - HOU 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=46; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=12). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Jose Altuve: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Yainer Diaz: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Jorge Barrosa: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Walker: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: AB current=3 box=5, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=45; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=12). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vinnie Pasquantino: AB current=4 box=6, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: AB current=4 box=6, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; John Rave: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2; Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Michael Massey: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | KC | BATTING_REALISM | current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | KC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting walks match KC pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting home runs match KC pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting hits match KC pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:HOU PA=52 matches KC BF=52. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:KC batting walks match HOU pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:KC batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:KC batting hits match HOU pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:KC batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:KC PA=49 matches HOU BF=49. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.536 -> 0.539 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.535585, 'sample_size': 464, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5431, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.539342, 'published_confidence': 0.505512, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | HOU current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | KC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | KC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.506. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.506. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.494. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.491/0.674. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 12 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: KC 9, HOU 10. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: KC 5 - HOU 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: KC. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for KC; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'KC', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-06-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-06-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260915_KC@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'KC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'output_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'simulation_score_winner': 'KC', 'final_score_winner': 'KC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0982, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.267, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'KC', 'model_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'KC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'KC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2905, 'winner': 'KC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_KC@HOU. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@HOU. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.25, 'home_run_delta': 0.0062, 'away_run_delta': -0.0062, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0202017037955472}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020061796836167163}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019822955207144156}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019685671272233207}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018293161652810846}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04742541086274814, '1': 0.07465635939282286, '2': 0.10442480844391046, '3': 0.12978417490198282, '4': 0.14332467555254366, '5': 0.1406375745486761, '6': 0.12262046033021466, '7': 0.09499608122578175, '8': 0.06539275157375699, '9': 0.039997671315591794, '10': 0.021738069668992378, '11': 0.01049756129340601, '12': 0.004504400889572444}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04565729549716513, '1': 0.07196872765705406, '2': 0.10106819596817156, '3': 0.12645099453098038, '4': 0.1409506333620908, '5': 0.13997447933389803, '6': 0.12384193707069342, '7': 0.09761659589112029, '8': 0.0685514472215108, '9': 0.04288907142032627, '10': 0.02390637380641219, '11': 0.011871833991435678, '12': 0.005252414249141331}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.3974, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.092, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2905} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0982, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.267, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'KC', 'model_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'KC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'KC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2905, 'winner': 'KC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 213. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 197. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 197. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 213. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 13 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | current:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 12.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 12.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 5 - 4 HOU. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 5 - 4 HOU. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: KC wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 12). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=KC, simulation=KC, published=KC. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.506. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): KC wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: KC wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: KC wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 12). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | HOU wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | KC wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | KC | BATTING_REALISM | current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | KC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting walks match KC pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting home runs match KC pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting hits match KC pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:HOU PA=52 matches KC BF=52. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:KC batting walks match HOU pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:KC batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:KC batting hits match HOU pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:KC batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:KC PA=49 matches HOU BF=49. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.536 -> 0.539 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.535585, 'sample_size': 464, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5431, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.539342, 'published_confidence': 0.505512, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | HOU current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | KC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | KC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.506. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.506. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.494. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.491/0.674. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 12 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: KC 9, HOU 10. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: KC 5 - HOU 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: KC. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for KC; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'KC', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-06-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-06-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260915_KC@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'KC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'output_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'simulation_score_winner': 'KC', 'final_score_winner': 'KC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0982, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.267, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'KC', 'model_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'KC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'KC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2905, 'winner': 'KC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_KC@HOU. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@HOU. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.25, 'home_run_delta': 0.0062, 'away_run_delta': -0.0062, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0202017037955472}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020061796836167163}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019822955207144156}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019685671272233207}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018293161652810846}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04742541086274814, '1': 0.07465635939282286, '2': 0.10442480844391046, '3': 0.12978417490198282, '4': 0.14332467555254366, '5': 0.1406375745486761, '6': 0.12262046033021466, '7': 0.09499608122578175, '8': 0.06539275157375699, '9': 0.039997671315591794, '10': 0.021738069668992378, '11': 0.01049756129340601, '12': 0.004504400889572444}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04565729549716513, '1': 0.07196872765705406, '2': 0.10106819596817156, '3': 0.12645099453098038, '4': 0.1409506333620908, '5': 0.13997447933389803, '6': 0.12384193707069342, '7': 0.09761659589112029, '8': 0.0685514472215108, '9': 0.04288907142032627, '10': 0.02390637380641219, '11': 0.011871833991435678, '12': 0.005252414249141331}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.3974, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.092, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2905} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0982, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.267, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'KC', 'model_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'KC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'KC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2905, 'winner': 'KC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 213. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 197. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 197. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 213. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 13 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | current:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 12.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 12.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 5 - 4 HOU. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 5 - 4 HOU. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: KC wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 12). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=KC, simulation=KC, published=KC. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.506. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): KC wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: KC wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: KC wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 12). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | HOU wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | KC wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=46; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=12). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Jose Altuve: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Yainer Diaz: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Jorge Barrosa: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Walker: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: AB current=3 box=5, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=45; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=12). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vinnie Pasquantino: AB current=4 box=6, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: AB current=4 box=6, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; John Rave: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2; Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Michael Massey: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.565164516182108 | 4.514306147326073 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 4 | 0.506 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 5 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | KC | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | KC | pitching | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | HOU | batting | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | HOU | pitching | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | KC | batting | 45 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | KC | pitching | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 12.0 | 4 | 52 | 213 | |||||||||
| simulation | HOU | batting | 46 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | HOU | pitching | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 12.0 | 5 | 49 | 197 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | KC | 1B | Vinnie Pasquantino | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | C | Carter Jensen | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | RF | Nick Loftin | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | CF | John Rave | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | KC | SS | Bobby Witt Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | DH | Salvador Perez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | 2B | Michael Massey | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | 3B | Josh Rojas | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | KC | LF | Isaac Collins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | HOU | SS | Jeremy Peña | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | DH | Yordan Alvarez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | 3B | Isaac Paredes | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | 2B | Jose Altuve | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | C | Yainer Diaz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | LF | Jorge Barrosa | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | HOU | 1B | Christian Walker | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | RF | Cam Smith | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | HOU | CF | Daulton Varsho | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | KC | 1 | C | Carter Jensen | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.167 |
| simulation | KC | 2 | SS | Bobby Witt Jr. | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | KC | 3 | 1B | Vinnie Pasquantino | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.167 |
| simulation | KC | 4 | DH | Salvador Perez | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | KC | 5 | 2B | Michael Massey | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | KC | 6 | RF | Nick Loftin | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | KC | 7 | CF | John Rave | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | KC | 8 | 3B | Josh Rojas | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | KC | 9 | LF | Isaac Collins | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | HOU | 1 | SS | Jeremy Peña | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | HOU | 2 | DH | Yordan Alvarez | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | HOU | 3 | 3B | Isaac Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | HOU | 4 | 2B | Jose Altuve | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | HOU | 5 | C | Yainer Diaz | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | HOU | 6 | 1B | Christian Walker | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | HOU | 7 | RF | Cam Smith | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | HOU | 8 | CF | Daulton Varsho | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | HOU | 9 | LF | Jorge Barrosa | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.400 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | KC | 1 | Daniel Lynch IV | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.80 | 3.52 | 1.10 |
| current | KC | 2 | Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.36 | 1.17 |
| current | KC | 3 | Craig Kimbrel | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.60 | 1.36 |
| current | KC | 4 | Steven Cruz | Closer | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.04 | 1.24 |
| current | KC | 5 | Alex Lange | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.04 | 1.57 | |
| current | KC | 7 | Nolan Hoffman | Reliever | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| current | HOU | 1 | Cristian Javier | Starter | 4.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.86 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| current | HOU | 2 | AJ Blubaugh | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.26 | 1.21 |
| current | HOU | 3 | Bryan Abreu | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.79 | 1.31 |
| current | HOU | 4 | Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 4.50 | 1.22 |
| current | HOU | 5 | Josh Hader | Closer | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| current | HOU | 6 | Bennett Sousa | Middle Reliever | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.19 | 1.58 | |
| current | HOU | 7 | Ronel Blanco | Reliever | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| simulation | KC | 1 | Daniel Lynch IV | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 89 | 1.80 | 3.52 | 1.10 |
| simulation | KC | 2 | Steven Cruz | Closer | 2.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 0.00 | 4.04 | 1.24 |
| simulation | KC | 3 | Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.36 | 1.17 |
| simulation | KC | 4 | Craig Kimbrel | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0.00 | 4.60 | 1.36 |
| simulation | KC | 5 | Alex Lange | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 10.80 | 6.04 | 1.57 |
| simulation | KC | 6 | Nolan Hoffman | Reliever | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 13.50 | 4.50 | 1.40 |
| simulation | HOU | 1 | Cristian Javier | Starter | 4.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 88 | 3.86 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| simulation | HOU | 2 | Josh Hader | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| simulation | HOU | 3 | Bryan Abreu | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.79 | 1.31 |
| simulation | HOU | 4 | AJ Blubaugh | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 3.26 | 1.21 |
| simulation | HOU | 5 | Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 9.00 | 4.50 | 1.22 |
| simulation | HOU | 6 | Bennett Sousa | Middle Reliever | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 4.50 | 5.19 | 1.58 |
| simulation | HOU | 7 | Ronel Blanco | Reliever | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27.00 | 7.11 | 1.42 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Daniel Lynch IV | Starter | 5.0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 89 |
| KC | Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| KC | Craig Kimbrel | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| KC | Steven Cruz | Closer | 2.1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 40 |
| KC | Alex Lange | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 33 |
| KC | Nolan Hoffman | Reliever | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| HOU | Cristian Javier | Starter | 4.2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 88 |
| HOU | AJ Blubaugh | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21 |
| HOU | Bryan Abreu | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| HOU | Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 23 |
| HOU | Josh Hader | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| HOU | Bennett Sousa | Middle Reliever | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 28 |
| HOU | Ronel Blanco | Reliever | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260916_LAD@CIN
20260916_LAD@CIN.json • 2026-09-16
LAD 8 - CIN 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=11, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Juan Brito: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Dane Myers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jose Trevino: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt McLain: H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=40; H: current=8, sim=13; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Mookie Betts: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Enrique Hernández: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Tucker: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting walks match LAD pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting hits match LAD pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CIN PA=40 matches LAD BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting walks match CIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting home runs match CIN pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting hits match CIN pitching: 13. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAD PA=41 matches CIN BF=41. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.736 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 205, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5512, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.7356, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.508/0.693. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 13, CIN 10. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 8 - CIN 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 20, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 13, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5800000000000001, 'artifact': '20260915_LAD@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5800000000000001, 'artifact': '20260914_LAD@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260909', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 13, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260909_CIN@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260908', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.671836, 'artifact': '20260908_CIN@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260907', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.532561, 'artifact': '20260907_CIN@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1008, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.758, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 2.0511, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_LAD@CIN. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@CIN. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -24.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 24.0, 'home_average_margin': -4.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.1385, 'away_run_delta': 0.1385, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -13.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.014990204262441135}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.014663280713003053}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.014623747419239157}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 9, 'probability': 0.014353752621905167}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.014304815980502037}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04828695460303552, '1': 0.07596341685600415, '2': 0.10604697368110867, '3': 0.13137453150273878, '4': 0.1444252719764926, '5': 0.14089459098506002, '6': 0.12197323994793176, '7': 0.09370308991549565, '8': 0.06387962783577628, '9': 0.038644701324985604, '10': 0.0207461085410764, '11': 0.009883310717629048, '12': 0.004178182112665742}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.01392628453401847, '1': 0.022508219167328192, '2': 0.03407442303341306, '3': 0.048316714042417, '4': 0.06417232512603054, '5': 0.07983248791783921, '6': 0.0930235816812997, '7': 0.10152849644894367, '8': 0.10379211378519002, '9': 0.09938532519600488, '10': 0.08913775131674453, '11': 0.07488288863817887, '12': 0.05892302149291993, '13': 0.04342791036949304, '14': 0.029980188647215054, '15': 0.01938569136411501, '16': 0.011741125532234317, '17': 0.006660696928852158, '18': 0.0035392490094329453, '19': 0.0017615057683292605}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.3974, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.408, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -2.0511} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1008, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.758, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 2.0511, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 190. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 190. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 8 - 4 CIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 8 - 4 CIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 8-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 8-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 8-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 8-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 8-4, final 8-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 12. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: LAD wins 8-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting walks match LAD pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting hits match LAD pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CIN PA=40 matches LAD BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting walks match CIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting home runs match CIN pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting hits match CIN pitching: 13. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAD PA=41 matches CIN BF=41. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.736 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 205, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5512, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.7356, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.508/0.693. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 13, CIN 10. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 8 - CIN 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 20, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 13, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5800000000000001, 'artifact': '20260915_LAD@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5800000000000001, 'artifact': '20260914_LAD@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260909', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 13, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260909_CIN@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260908', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.671836, 'artifact': '20260908_CIN@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260907', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.532561, 'artifact': '20260907_CIN@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1008, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.758, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 2.0511, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_LAD@CIN. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@CIN. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -24.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 24.0, 'home_average_margin': -4.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.1385, 'away_run_delta': 0.1385, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -13.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.014990204262441135}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.014663280713003053}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.014623747419239157}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 9, 'probability': 0.014353752621905167}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.014304815980502037}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04828695460303552, '1': 0.07596341685600415, '2': 0.10604697368110867, '3': 0.13137453150273878, '4': 0.1444252719764926, '5': 0.14089459098506002, '6': 0.12197323994793176, '7': 0.09370308991549565, '8': 0.06387962783577628, '9': 0.038644701324985604, '10': 0.0207461085410764, '11': 0.009883310717629048, '12': 0.004178182112665742}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.01392628453401847, '1': 0.022508219167328192, '2': 0.03407442303341306, '3': 0.048316714042417, '4': 0.06417232512603054, '5': 0.07983248791783921, '6': 0.0930235816812997, '7': 0.10152849644894367, '8': 0.10379211378519002, '9': 0.09938532519600488, '10': 0.08913775131674453, '11': 0.07488288863817887, '12': 0.05892302149291993, '13': 0.04342791036949304, '14': 0.029980188647215054, '15': 0.01938569136411501, '16': 0.011741125532234317, '17': 0.006660696928852158, '18': 0.0035392490094329453, '19': 0.0017615057683292605}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.3974, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.408, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -2.0511} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1008, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.758, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 2.0511, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 190. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 190. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 8 - 4 CIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 8 - 4 CIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 8-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 8-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 8-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 8-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 8-4, final 8-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 12. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: LAD wins 8-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=11, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Juan Brito: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Dane Myers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jose Trevino: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt McLain: H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=40; H: current=8, sim=13; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Mookie Betts: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Enrique Hernández: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Tucker: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 5.173611335159206 | 2.651285471589556 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 3 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 8 | 4 | 0.580 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 8 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 8 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 8 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 8 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAD | batting | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | LAD | pitching | 10 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | CIN | batting | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CIN | pitching | 13 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 9.0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | LAD | batting | 40 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | LAD | pitching | 10 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 9.0 | 4 | 40 | 190 | |||||||||
| simulation | CIN | batting | 37 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | CIN | pitching | 13 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 9.0 | 8 | 41 | 171 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAD | CF | Tommy Edman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | DH | Teoscar Hernández | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | 2B | Miguel Rojas | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | LAD | 1B | Freddie Freeman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | SS | Mookie Betts | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | C | Will Smith | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | 3B | Enrique Hernández | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | LAD | RF | Kyle Tucker | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | LAD | LF | Alex Call | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | CIN | DH | Tyler Stephenson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | 3B | Eugenio Suárez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CIN | RF | Juan Brito | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CIN | 1B | Sal Stewart | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | LF | JJ Bleday | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | CIN | SS | Elly De La Cruz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | CF | Dane Myers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | C | Jose Trevino | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CIN | 2B | Matt McLain | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | LAD | 1 | CF | Tommy Edman | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | LAD | 2 | SS | Mookie Betts | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAD | 3 | C | Will Smith | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | LAD | 4 | 1B | Freddie Freeman | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | LAD | 5 | DH | Teoscar Hernández | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | LAD | 6 | 2B | Miguel Rojas | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | LAD | 7 | RF | Kyle Tucker | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAD | 8 | 3B | Enrique Hernández | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAD | 9 | LF | Alex Call | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | CIN | 1 | CF | Dane Myers | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | CIN | 2 | SS | Elly De La Cruz | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CIN | 3 | 1B | Sal Stewart | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | CIN | 4 | DH | Tyler Stephenson | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CIN | 5 | 3B | Eugenio Suárez | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | CIN | 6 | RF | Juan Brito | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CIN | 7 | LF | JJ Bleday | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CIN | 8 | C | Jose Trevino | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CIN | 9 | 2B | Matt McLain | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAD | 1 | Blake Snell | Starter | 6.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.91 | 1.09 |
| current | LAD | 2 | Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 2.87 | 1.12 |
| current | LAD | 3 | Brock Stewart | Setup Man | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.28 | 1.01 |
| current | LAD | 4 | Tanner Scott | Closer | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 2.87 | 1.02 |
| current | LAD | 5 | Jack Dreyer | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.93 | 1.06 |
| current | CIN | 1 | Andrew Abbott | Starter | 4.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.08 | 4.78 | 1.46 |
| current | CIN | 2 | Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10.80 | 2.43 | 1.28 |
| current | CIN | 3 | Emilio Pagán | Closer | 2.0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.72 | 1.03 |
| current | CIN | 4 | Luis Mey | Setup Man | 1.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 6.37 | 1.69 |
| simulation | LAD | 1 | Blake Snell | Starter | 6.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 24 | 109 | 0.00 | 1.91 | 1.09 |
| simulation | LAD | 2 | Tanner Scott | Closer | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 13.50 | 2.87 | 1.02 |
| simulation | LAD | 3 | Brock Stewart | Setup Man | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 9.00 | 2.28 | 1.01 |
| simulation | LAD | 4 | Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 18.00 | 2.87 | 1.12 |
| simulation | LAD | 5 | Jack Dreyer | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.00 | 2.93 | 1.06 |
| simulation | CIN | 1 | Andrew Abbott | Starter | 4.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 17 | 80 | 2.08 | 4.78 | 1.46 |
| simulation | CIN | 2 | Emilio Pagán | Closer | 2.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 39 | 13.50 | 3.72 | 1.03 |
| simulation | CIN | 3 | Luis Mey | Setup Man | 1.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 18.00 | 6.37 | 1.69 |
| simulation | CIN | 4 | Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 10.80 | 2.43 | 1.28 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | Blake Snell | Starter | 6.0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 109 |
| LAD | Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 34 |
| LAD | Brock Stewart | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 32 |
| LAD | Tanner Scott | Closer | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| LAD | Jack Dreyer | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| CIN | Andrew Abbott | Starter | 4.1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 80 |
| CIN | Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 27 |
| CIN | Emilio Pagán | Closer | 2.0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 39 |
| CIN | Luis Mey | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260916_MIA@ARI
20260916_MIA@ARI.json • 2026-09-16
MIA 7 - ARI 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=6, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Jesús Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Corbin Carroll: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Pavin Smith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Griffin Conine: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Stowers: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jakob Marsee: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Joe Mack: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Xavier Edwards: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting walks match MIA pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting hits match MIA pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ARI PA=37 matches MIA BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting walks match ARI pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting home runs match ARI pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting hits match ARI pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIA PA=39 matches ARI BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.514 -> 0.537 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5136, 'sample_size': 391, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5601, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53685, 'published_confidence': 0.554548, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ARI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.555. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.555. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.445. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.540/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 9, ARI 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 7 - ARI 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIA; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'opponent_team': 'ARI', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-06-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'MIA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.546737, 'artifact': '20260915_MIA@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5174259999999999, 'artifact': '20260914_MIA@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ARI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'output_opponent_team': 'ARI', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIA', 'final_score_winner': 'MIA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIA 7 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIA 7 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0289, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.002, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIA', 'model_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0806, 'winner': 'MIA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_MIA@ARI. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@ARI. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -15.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 15.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0865, 'away_run_delta': 0.0865, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016685410950520462}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016641786908014523}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015958233724344784}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01591651088824713}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015721616869690955}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03789732452427711, '1': 0.060079703001456236, '2': 0.08583318307800701, '3': 0.11050727623298659, '4': 0.12821379225033652, '5': 0.1340561775303461, '6': 0.12631273322528708, '7': 0.10725453111720196, '8': 0.08207150159179998, '9': 0.05659490367877319, '10': 0.03516984754506155, '11': 0.019695719985997256, '12': 0.009939887102965079, '13': 0.004520633063345537, '14': 0.0018527860721591137}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.030473636028181213, '1': 0.04858429724569103, '2': 0.0705960878102848, '3': 0.09349285119420321, '4': 0.11284679641737555, '5': 0.12414039557593193, '6': 0.12446581170601713, '7': 0.1137365595018295, '8': 0.09472468250221901, '9': 0.07190172175004984, '10': 0.049742600056752975, '11': 0.031363948687071895, '12': 0.018023787044809655, '13': 0.009440052739061337, '14': 0.004506255935104961, '15': 0.0019605158054160597}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0099, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.212, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0806} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIA 7 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIA 7 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0289, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.002, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIA', 'model_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0806, 'winner': 'MIA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 7 - 5 ARI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 7 - 5 ARI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIA, simulation=MIA, published=MIA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.555. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIA wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-5, final 7-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 12. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: MIA wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ARI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting walks match MIA pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting hits match MIA pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ARI PA=37 matches MIA BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting walks match ARI pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting home runs match ARI pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting hits match ARI pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIA PA=39 matches ARI BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.514 -> 0.537 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5136, 'sample_size': 391, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5601, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53685, 'published_confidence': 0.554548, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ARI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.555. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.555. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.445. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.540/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 9, ARI 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 7 - ARI 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIA; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'opponent_team': 'ARI', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-06-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'MIA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.546737, 'artifact': '20260915_MIA@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5174259999999999, 'artifact': '20260914_MIA@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ARI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'output_opponent_team': 'ARI', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIA', 'final_score_winner': 'MIA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIA 7 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIA 7 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0289, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.002, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIA', 'model_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0806, 'winner': 'MIA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_MIA@ARI. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@ARI. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -15.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 15.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0865, 'away_run_delta': 0.0865, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016685410950520462}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016641786908014523}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015958233724344784}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01591651088824713}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015721616869690955}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03789732452427711, '1': 0.060079703001456236, '2': 0.08583318307800701, '3': 0.11050727623298659, '4': 0.12821379225033652, '5': 0.1340561775303461, '6': 0.12631273322528708, '7': 0.10725453111720196, '8': 0.08207150159179998, '9': 0.05659490367877319, '10': 0.03516984754506155, '11': 0.019695719985997256, '12': 0.009939887102965079, '13': 0.004520633063345537, '14': 0.0018527860721591137}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.030473636028181213, '1': 0.04858429724569103, '2': 0.0705960878102848, '3': 0.09349285119420321, '4': 0.11284679641737555, '5': 0.12414039557593193, '6': 0.12446581170601713, '7': 0.1137365595018295, '8': 0.09472468250221901, '9': 0.07190172175004984, '10': 0.049742600056752975, '11': 0.031363948687071895, '12': 0.018023787044809655, '13': 0.009440052739061337, '14': 0.004506255935104961, '15': 0.0019605158054160597}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0099, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.212, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0806} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIA 7 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIA 7 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0289, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.002, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIA', 'model_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0806, 'winner': 'MIA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 7 - 5 ARI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 7 - 5 ARI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIA, simulation=MIA, published=MIA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.555. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIA wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-5, final 7-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 12. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: MIA wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ARI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=6, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Jesús Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Corbin Carroll: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Pavin Smith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Griffin Conine: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Stowers: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jakob Marsee: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Joe Mack: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Xavier Edwards: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.830342007698904 | 3.701380862085342 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 6 | 5 | 0.555 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 7 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 7 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 7 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 7 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | MIA | batting | 34 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | MIA | pitching | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | ARI | batting | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | ARI | pitching | 9 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | MIA | batting | 36 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | MIA | pitching | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 9.0 | 5 | 37 | 163 | |||||||||
| simulation | ARI | batting | 32 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | ARI | pitching | 9 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 9.0 | 7 | 39 | 169 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | MIA | DH | Griffin Conine | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | SS | Otto Lopez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | 3B | Javier Sanoja | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | LF | Heriberto Hernández | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | 1B | Kyle Stowers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | CF | Jakob Marsee | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | C | Joe Mack | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIA | 2B | Xavier Edwards | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | RF | Esteury Ruiz | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ARI | LF | Lars Nootbaar | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | C | Gabriel Moreno | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | 2B | Ketel Marte | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | DH | Jesús Sánchez | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | ARI | RF | Corbin Carroll | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | CF | Tim Tawa | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ARI | SS | Geraldo Perdomo | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | 1B | Pavin Smith | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ARI | 3B | Nolan Arenado | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | MIA | 1 | 1B | Kyle Stowers | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIA | 2 | LF | Heriberto Hernández | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIA | 3 | SS | Otto Lopez | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | MIA | 4 | DH | Griffin Conine | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIA | 5 | 3B | Javier Sanoja | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIA | 6 | CF | Jakob Marsee | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | MIA | 7 | 2B | Xavier Edwards | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIA | 8 | C | Joe Mack | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | MIA | 9 | RF | Esteury Ruiz | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ARI | 1 | LF | Lars Nootbaar | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ARI | 2 | 2B | Ketel Marte | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | ARI | 3 | C | Gabriel Moreno | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | ARI | 4 | SS | Geraldo Perdomo | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ARI | 5 | RF | Corbin Carroll | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ARI | 6 | 3B | Nolan Arenado | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ARI | 7 | DH | Jesús Sánchez | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ARI | 8 | 1B | Pavin Smith | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ARI | 9 | CF | Tim Tawa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | MIA | 1 | Ryan Gusto | Starter | 4.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.93 | 4.14 | 1.40 |
| current | MIA | 2 | Calvin Faucher | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.50 | 1.32 |
| current | MIA | 3 | Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 36.00 | 3.08 | 1.11 |
| current | MIA | 4 | Tyler Zuber | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5.02 | 1.38 |
| current | MIA | 5 | Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.86 | 1.58 |
| current | ARI | 1 | Merrill Kelly | Starter | 5.1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.06 | 4.97 | 1.46 |
| current | ARI | 2 | Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.74 | 0.68 |
| current | ARI | 3 | Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20.25 | 2.80 | 1.11 |
| current | ARI | 4 | Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.54 | 0.98 |
| simulation | MIA | 1 | Ryan Gusto | Starter | 4.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 19 | 90 | 1.93 | 4.14 | 1.40 |
| simulation | MIA | 2 | Calvin Faucher | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0.00 | 3.50 | 1.32 |
| simulation | MIA | 3 | Tyler Zuber | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 5.02 | 1.38 |
| simulation | MIA | 4 | Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 36.00 | 3.08 | 1.11 |
| simulation | MIA | 5 | Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 4.86 | 1.58 |
| simulation | ARI | 1 | Merrill Kelly | Starter | 5.1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 23 | 98 | 6.75 | 4.97 | 1.46 |
| simulation | ARI | 2 | Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 0.00 | 1.74 | 0.68 |
| simulation | ARI | 3 | Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.54 | 0.98 |
| simulation | ARI | 4 | Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 20.25 | 2.80 | 1.11 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Ryan Gusto | Starter | 4.2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 90 |
| MIA | Calvin Faucher | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 |
| MIA | Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 26 |
| MIA | Tyler Zuber | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| MIA | Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| ARI | Merrill Kelly | Starter | 5.1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 98 |
| ARI | Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 29 |
| ARI | Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 29 |
| ARI | Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260916_MIL@PIT
20260916_MIL@PIT.json • 2026-09-16
MIL 5 - PIT 3
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Bauers: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; William Contreras: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Joey Ortiz: R current=0 box=1; Brice Turang: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=7). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brandon Lowe: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jacob Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1; Konnor Griffin: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ronny Simon: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting walks match PIT pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting home runs match PIT pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting hits match PIT pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIL PA=35 matches PIT BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting walks match MIL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting hits match MIL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PIT PA=36 matches MIL BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.815 -> 0.690 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.814848, 'sample_size': 365, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5644, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.689624, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PIT current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.713/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 6, PIT 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 5 - PIT 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.56, reasons=local prediction memory shows 7 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 7 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'PIT', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-08-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-08-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 7, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 7, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260915_MIL@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260806', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260806_PIT@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260805', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260805_PIT@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260804', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260804_PIT@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260803', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260803_PIT@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 5 - 3 PIT', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 5 - 3 PIT', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.053, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.93, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1366, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_MIL@PIT. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@PIT. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0577, 'away_run_delta': 0.0577, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021890884073925188}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.021719854238353965}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02063156587481356}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.020470374882835794}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020070430749180773}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.077635436917013, '1': 0.11947658535186335, '2': 0.1561424413754446, '3': 0.17329039521547332, '4': 0.16332150827197936, '5': 0.13071566445346017, '6': 0.08884382557968173, '7': 0.05127931674180748, '8': 0.025134634375281913, '9': 0.010462085799637035, '10': 0.00369810591835804}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03175599649456203, '1': 0.05058064498671807, '2': 0.07328751198509659, '3': 0.0965967669306616, '4': 0.11581963746014158, '5': 0.12632485514679306, '6': 0.1253379000685352, '7': 0.11312615256610828, '8': 0.09288179873013172, '9': 0.06937215968189271, '10': 0.04713318743691264, '11': 0.029131000675217508, '12': 0.016378381906284028, '13': 0.00837671194841836, '14': 0.0038972939825266018}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.3609, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.72, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.1366} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 5 - 3 PIT', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 5 - 3 PIT', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.053, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.93, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1366, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 5 - 3 PIT. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 5 - 3 PIT. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 8. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIL wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PIT wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting walks match PIT pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting home runs match PIT pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting hits match PIT pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIL PA=35 matches PIT BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting walks match MIL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting hits match MIL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PIT PA=36 matches MIL BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.815 -> 0.690 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.814848, 'sample_size': 365, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5644, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.689624, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PIT current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.713/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 6, PIT 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 5 - PIT 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.56, reasons=local prediction memory shows 7 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 7 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'PIT', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-08-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-08-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 7, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 7, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260915_MIL@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260806', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260806_PIT@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260805', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260805_PIT@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260804', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260804_PIT@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260803', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260803_PIT@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 5 - 3 PIT', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 5 - 3 PIT', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.053, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.93, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1366, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_MIL@PIT. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@PIT. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0577, 'away_run_delta': 0.0577, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021890884073925188}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.021719854238353965}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02063156587481356}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.020470374882835794}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020070430749180773}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.077635436917013, '1': 0.11947658535186335, '2': 0.1561424413754446, '3': 0.17329039521547332, '4': 0.16332150827197936, '5': 0.13071566445346017, '6': 0.08884382557968173, '7': 0.05127931674180748, '8': 0.025134634375281913, '9': 0.010462085799637035, '10': 0.00369810591835804}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03175599649456203, '1': 0.05058064498671807, '2': 0.07328751198509659, '3': 0.0965967669306616, '4': 0.11581963746014158, '5': 0.12632485514679306, '6': 0.1253379000685352, '7': 0.11312615256610828, '8': 0.09288179873013172, '9': 0.06937215968189271, '10': 0.04713318743691264, '11': 0.029131000675217508, '12': 0.016378381906284028, '13': 0.00837671194841836, '14': 0.0038972939825266018}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.3609, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.72, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.1366} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 5 - 3 PIT', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 5 - 3 PIT', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.053, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.93, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1366, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 5 - 3 PIT. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 5 - 3 PIT. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 8. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIL wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PIT wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Bauers: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; William Contreras: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Joey Ortiz: R current=0 box=1; Brice Turang: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=7). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brandon Lowe: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jacob Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1; Konnor Griffin: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ronny Simon: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.967527790419078 | 4.355735198195982 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 3 | 0.560 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 3 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 3 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 3 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 5 | 3 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | MIL | batting | 34 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | MIL | pitching | 7 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | PIT | batting | 34 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | PIT | pitching | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | MIL | batting | 33 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | MIL | pitching | 7 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9.0 | 3 | 36 | 146 | |||||||||
| simulation | PIT | batting | 34 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | PIT | pitching | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 9.0 | 5 | 35 | 145 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | MIL | RF | Jake Bauers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | C | William Contreras | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | 3B | Joey Ortiz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | 2B | Brice Turang | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | LF | Jackson Chourio | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | DH | Christian Yelich | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | 1B | Andrew Vaughn | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIL | CF | Luis Lara | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | SS | Cooper Pratt | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | PIT | DH | Bryan Reynolds | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | CF | Oneil Cruz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | 1B | Ryan O'Hearn | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | 2B | Brandon Lowe | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | 3B | Jacob Gonzalez | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | PIT | SS | Konnor Griffin | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | LF | Jake Mangum | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PIT | RF | Ronny Simon | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | C | Rafael Flores Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | MIL | 1 | 2B | Brice Turang | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIL | 2 | LF | Jackson Chourio | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | MIL | 3 | RF | Jake Bauers | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | MIL | 4 | C | William Contreras | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIL | 5 | DH | Christian Yelich | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIL | 6 | 3B | Joey Ortiz | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIL | 7 | CF | Luis Lara | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIL | 8 | 1B | Andrew Vaughn | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIL | 9 | SS | Cooper Pratt | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | PIT | 1 | SS | Konnor Griffin | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PIT | 2 | 2B | Brandon Lowe | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | PIT | 3 | DH | Bryan Reynolds | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PIT | 4 | CF | Oneil Cruz | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | PIT | 5 | C | Rafael Flores Jr. | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PIT | 6 | 1B | Ryan O'Hearn | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | PIT | 7 | RF | Ronny Simon | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | PIT | 8 | 3B | Jacob Gonzalez | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PIT | 9 | LF | Jake Mangum | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | MIL | 1 | Logan Henderson | Starter | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.50 | 2.34 | 0.78 |
| current | MIL | 2 | Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.13 | 1.37 |
| current | MIL | 3 | Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.15 | 1.03 |
| current | MIL | 4 | Trevor Megill | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 1.91 | 0.88 |
| current | PIT | 1 | Jared Jones | Starter | 5.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 4.10 | 1.17 |
| current | PIT | 2 | Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.45 | 1.10 |
| current | PIT | 3 | Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.56 | 0.94 |
| current | PIT | 4 | Mason Montgomery | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.44 | 0.99 |
| current | PIT | 5 | Yohan Ramírez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.09 | 1.25 |
| simulation | MIL | 1 | Logan Henderson | Starter | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 23 | 94 | 1.50 | 2.34 | 0.78 |
| simulation | MIL | 2 | Trevor Megill | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 9.00 | 1.91 | 0.88 |
| simulation | MIL | 3 | Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.15 | 1.03 |
| simulation | MIL | 4 | Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 9.00 | 3.13 | 1.37 |
| simulation | PIT | 1 | Jared Jones | Starter | 5.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 93 | 9.00 | 4.10 | 1.17 |
| simulation | PIT | 2 | Mason Montgomery | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.44 | 0.99 |
| simulation | PIT | 3 | Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.56 | 0.94 |
| simulation | PIT | 4 | Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.45 | 1.10 |
| simulation | PIT | 5 | Yohan Ramírez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.09 | 1.25 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | Logan Henderson | Starter | 6.0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 94 |
| MIL | Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 |
| MIL | Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| MIL | Trevor Megill | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 |
| PIT | Jared Jones | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 93 |
| PIT | Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| PIT | Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| PIT | Mason Montgomery | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| PIT | Yohan Ramírez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260916_NYY@MIN
20260916_NYY@MIN.json • 2026-09-16
NYY 7 - MIN 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Martin: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ryan Kreidler: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1; Ben Ross: AB current=2 box=3, H current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Emmanuel Rodriguez: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Aaron Judge: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Spencer Jones: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Anthony Volpe: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Ryan McMahon: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting walks match NYY pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting hits match NYY pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIN PA=34 matches NYY BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting walks match MIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting home runs match MIN pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting hits match MIN pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYY PA=41 matches MIN BF=41. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.890 -> 0.713 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.889739, 'sample_size': 194, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5361, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.712919, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYY current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.584/0.781. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 12, MIN 6. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 7 - MIN 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 7, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5700000000000001, 'artifact': '20260915_NYY@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5700000000000001, 'artifact': '20260914_NYY@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260703', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260703_MIN@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 7 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 7 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0997, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.35, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4725, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_NYY@MIN. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@MIN. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0173, 'away_run_delta': 0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.018216357321529462}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.018029488080892362}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017787957550621767}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01760548297234584}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016981923031031014}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06190454908444986, '1': 0.0964045942404002, '2': 0.13055484479491067, '3': 0.15374760163363532, '4': 0.1574504122081498, '5': 0.14021657330763748, '6': 0.10858628921988579, '7': 0.07312581675582587, '8': 0.04282393418217393, '9': 0.02180833406522384, '10': 0.009657806830508764, '11': 0.0037192436771983236}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.022707932069490386, '1': 0.03642640406040151, '2': 0.05391408088424329, '3': 0.0736266942834935, '4': 0.09277171573657736, '5': 0.10785569115297632, '6': 0.11569583760407942, '7': 0.1145089925649565, '8': 0.1045703698026037, '9': 0.08810993578295657, '10': 0.06849964430984275, '11': 0.04913590267445211, '12': 0.032520465402021595, '13': 0.019859200307580392, '14': 0.01118958426673708, '15': 0.005817191180046321, '16': 0.0027903579175411228}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.5762, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.28, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.4725} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 7 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 7 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0997, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.35, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4725, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 7 - 4 MIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 7 - 4 MIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYY wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYY wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting walks match NYY pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting hits match NYY pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIN PA=34 matches NYY BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting walks match MIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting home runs match MIN pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting hits match MIN pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYY PA=41 matches MIN BF=41. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.890 -> 0.713 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.889739, 'sample_size': 194, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5361, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.712919, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYY current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.584/0.781. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 12, MIN 6. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 7 - MIN 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 7, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5700000000000001, 'artifact': '20260915_NYY@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5700000000000001, 'artifact': '20260914_NYY@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260703', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260703_MIN@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 7 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 7 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0997, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.35, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4725, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_NYY@MIN. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@MIN. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0173, 'away_run_delta': 0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.018216357321529462}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.018029488080892362}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017787957550621767}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01760548297234584}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016981923031031014}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06190454908444986, '1': 0.0964045942404002, '2': 0.13055484479491067, '3': 0.15374760163363532, '4': 0.1574504122081498, '5': 0.14021657330763748, '6': 0.10858628921988579, '7': 0.07312581675582587, '8': 0.04282393418217393, '9': 0.02180833406522384, '10': 0.009657806830508764, '11': 0.0037192436771983236}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.022707932069490386, '1': 0.03642640406040151, '2': 0.05391408088424329, '3': 0.0736266942834935, '4': 0.09277171573657736, '5': 0.10785569115297632, '6': 0.11569583760407942, '7': 0.1145089925649565, '8': 0.1045703698026037, '9': 0.08810993578295657, '10': 0.06849964430984275, '11': 0.04913590267445211, '12': 0.032520465402021595, '13': 0.019859200307580392, '14': 0.01118958426673708, '15': 0.005817191180046321, '16': 0.0027903579175411228}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.5762, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.28, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.4725} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 7 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 7 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0997, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.35, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4725, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 7 - 4 MIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 7 - 4 MIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYY wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYY wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Martin: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ryan Kreidler: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1; Ben Ross: AB current=2 box=3, H current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Emmanuel Rodriguez: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Aaron Judge: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Spencer Jones: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Anthony Volpe: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Ryan McMahon: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.882039928752512 | 3.3060144924302977 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 3 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 6 | 4 | 0.580 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 7 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 7 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 7 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 7 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | NYY | batting | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | NYY | pitching | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | MIN | batting | 32 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | MIN | pitching | 12 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | NYY | batting | 38 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | NYY | pitching | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 9.0 | 4 | 34 | 133 | |||||||||
| simulation | MIN | batting | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | MIN | pitching | 12 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 9.0 | 7 | 41 | 157 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | NYY | RF | Aaron Judge | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | LF | Cody Bellinger | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | DH | Ben Rice | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | 1B | Luis García Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | CF | Spencer Jones | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | 2B | Anthony Volpe | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | SS | George Lombard Jr. | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | 3B | Ryan McMahon | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | C | Austin Wells | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIN | RF | Luke Keaschall | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | LF | Austin Martin | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIN | 3B | Royce Lewis | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | 1B | Kody Clemens | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | 2B | Ryan Kreidler | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIN | SS | Ben Ross | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIN | C | Ryan Jeffers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | CF | Emmanuel Rodriguez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | DH | Josh Bell | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | NYY | 1 | DH | Ben Rice | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | NYY | 2 | LF | Cody Bellinger | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | NYY | 3 | RF | Aaron Judge | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | NYY | 4 | 1B | Luis García Jr. | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYY | 5 | CF | Spencer Jones | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | NYY | 6 | SS | George Lombard Jr. | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYY | 7 | 3B | Ryan McMahon | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | NYY | 8 | C | Austin Wells | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYY | 9 | 2B | Anthony Volpe | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIN | 1 | RF | Luke Keaschall | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIN | 2 | LF | Austin Martin | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIN | 3 | C | Ryan Jeffers | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIN | 4 | DH | Josh Bell | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | MIN | 5 | 1B | Kody Clemens | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIN | 6 | 3B | Royce Lewis | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIN | 7 | CF | Emmanuel Rodriguez | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIN | 8 | 2B | Ryan Kreidler | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | MIN | 9 | SS | Ben Ross | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | NYY | 1 | Carlos Rodón | Starter | 5.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.76 | 2.94 | 1.12 |
| current | NYY | 2 | Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.94 | 1.18 |
| current | NYY | 3 | David Bednar | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.66 | 1.03 |
| current | NYY | 4 | Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 1.07 |
| current | MIN | 1 | Zebby Matthews | Starter | 5.2 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4.76 | 4.98 | 1.27 |
| current | MIN | 2 | A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 2.01 | 0.97 |
| current | MIN | 3 | Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.59 | 1.32 |
| current | MIN | 4 | Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.86 | 1.38 |
| simulation | NYY | 1 | Carlos Rodón | Starter | 5.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 86 | 4.76 | 2.94 | 1.12 |
| simulation | NYY | 2 | David Bednar | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 2.66 | 1.03 |
| simulation | NYY | 3 | Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 1.94 | 1.18 |
| simulation | NYY | 4 | Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 1.07 |
| simulation | MIN | 1 | Zebby Matthews | Starter | 5.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 98 | 6.35 | 4.98 | 1.27 |
| simulation | MIN | 2 | Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 3.86 | 1.38 |
| simulation | MIN | 3 | Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 3.59 | 1.32 |
| simulation | MIN | 4 | A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 6.75 | 2.01 | 0.97 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | Carlos Rodón | Starter | 5.2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 86 |
| NYY | Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| NYY | David Bednar | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
| NYY | Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| MIN | Zebby Matthews | Starter | 5.2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 98 |
| MIN | A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 27 |
| MIN | Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
| MIN | Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260916_OAK@TB
20260916_OAK@TB.json • 2026-09-16
OAK 2 - TB 6
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Shea Langeliers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Tommy White: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0; Lawrence Butler: BB current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brian Serven: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=9, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=6, sim=4). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan Vilade: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Madrigal: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: H current=1 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nick Fortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TB | BATTING_REALISM | current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TB | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting walks match TB pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting home runs match TB pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting hits match TB pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:OAK PA=35 matches TB BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TB batting walks match OAK pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TB batting home runs match OAK pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TB batting hits match OAK pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TB batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TB PA=39 matches OAK BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.729 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 195, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5385, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.72925, 'published_confidence': 0.76686, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | OAK current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TB current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TB current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.233. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.767. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.767. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.713/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 6, TB 12. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 2 - TB 6. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TB. | {'winner_confidence': 0.76686, 'h2h_net_margin': 13, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.667434, 'artifact': '20260915_OAK@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260812', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260812_TB@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260811', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260811_TB@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260810', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260810_TB@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_OAK@TB. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@TB. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 17.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 17.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.25, 'home_run_delta': 0.1062, 'away_run_delta': -0.1062, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.0225791368566172}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02244943847670683}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02232899058574946}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02220072908831507}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.020968164945939397}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.022281650595237033, '1': 0.03575510815719501, '2': 0.05297611029105141, '3': 0.07247250519643149, '4': 0.091541434889928, '5': 0.10676118661300192, '6': 0.11496358645235859, '7': 0.11430321617309402, '8': 0.10493197136465009, '9': 0.08894231902044968, '10': 0.06960818349178717, '11': 0.050299467482961116, '12': 0.033559672114361276, '13': 0.020673940681311367, '14': 0.011759261756312745, '15': 0.006175726928155691, '16': 0.002994658791713424}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.10709260571583397, '1': 0.16105118763616624, '2': 0.19640250929344566, '3': 0.19422663536164722, '4': 0.1557575817477006, '5': 0.10129039368469415, '6': 0.0534153374884397, '7': 0.02284243241337851, '8': 0.0079213166586939}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 2.1217, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.724, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.6325} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 2 - 6 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 2 - 6 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0451, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.074, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TB', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6325, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | current:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 2 - 6 TB. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 2 - 6 TB. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 6-2. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.767. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 6-2. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 2-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 2-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-6, final 2-6 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 8. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: TB wins 6-2. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | OAK wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TB wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TB | BATTING_REALISM | current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TB | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting walks match TB pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting home runs match TB pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting hits match TB pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:OAK PA=35 matches TB BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TB batting walks match OAK pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TB batting home runs match OAK pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TB batting hits match OAK pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TB batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TB PA=39 matches OAK BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.729 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 195, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5385, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.72925, 'published_confidence': 0.76686, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | OAK current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TB current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TB current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.233. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.767. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.767. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.713/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 6, TB 12. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 2 - TB 6. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TB. | {'winner_confidence': 0.76686, 'h2h_net_margin': 13, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.667434, 'artifact': '20260915_OAK@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260812', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260812_TB@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260811', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260811_TB@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260810', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260810_TB@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_OAK@TB. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@TB. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 17.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 17.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.25, 'home_run_delta': 0.1062, 'away_run_delta': -0.1062, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.0225791368566172}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02244943847670683}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02232899058574946}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02220072908831507}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.020968164945939397}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.022281650595237033, '1': 0.03575510815719501, '2': 0.05297611029105141, '3': 0.07247250519643149, '4': 0.091541434889928, '5': 0.10676118661300192, '6': 0.11496358645235859, '7': 0.11430321617309402, '8': 0.10493197136465009, '9': 0.08894231902044968, '10': 0.06960818349178717, '11': 0.050299467482961116, '12': 0.033559672114361276, '13': 0.020673940681311367, '14': 0.011759261756312745, '15': 0.006175726928155691, '16': 0.002994658791713424}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.10709260571583397, '1': 0.16105118763616624, '2': 0.19640250929344566, '3': 0.19422663536164722, '4': 0.1557575817477006, '5': 0.10129039368469415, '6': 0.0534153374884397, '7': 0.02284243241337851, '8': 0.0079213166586939}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 2.1217, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.724, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.6325} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 2 - 6 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 2 - 6 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0451, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.074, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TB', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6325, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | current:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 2 - 6 TB. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 2 - 6 TB. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 6-2. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.767. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 6-2. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 2-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 2-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-6, final 2-6 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 8. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: TB wins 6-2. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | OAK wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TB wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Shea Langeliers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Tommy White: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0; Lawrence Butler: BB current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brian Serven: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=9, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=6, sim=4). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan Vilade: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Madrigal: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: H current=1 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nick Fortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.741061147358707 | 4.574834332750237 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 2 | 6 | 0.767 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 2 | 6 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 2 | 6 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 2 | 6 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 2 | 6 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| TB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | OAK | batting | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | OAK | pitching | 12 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | TB | batting | 33 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | TB | pitching | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | OAK | batting | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | OAK | pitching | 12 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8.0 | 6 | 39 | 154 | |||||||||
| simulation | TB | batting | 36 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | TB | pitching | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9.0 | 2 | 35 | 133 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | OAK | CF | Henry Bolte | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | DH | Shea Langeliers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | SS | Donovan Walton | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | OAK | 1B | Tommy White | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | LF | Carlos Cortes | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | OAK | RF | Lawrence Butler | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | 2B | Jeff McNeil | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | C | Brian Serven | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | OAK | 3B | Zack Gelof | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | 1B | Ryan Vilade | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | CF | Jonny DeLuca | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | 2B | Nick Madrigal | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TB | RF | Victor Mesa Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | 3B | Junior Caminero | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | LF | Chandler Simpson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | DH | Yandy Díaz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | C | Nick Fortes | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TB | SS | Jorge Mateo | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | OAK | 1 | CF | Henry Bolte | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | OAK | 2 | 2B | Jeff McNeil | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | OAK | 3 | DH | Shea Langeliers | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | OAK | 4 | RF | Lawrence Butler | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | OAK | 5 | 3B | Zack Gelof | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | OAK | 6 | SS | Donovan Walton | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | OAK | 7 | 1B | Tommy White | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | OAK | 8 | LF | Carlos Cortes | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | OAK | 9 | C | Brian Serven | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 |
| simulation | TB | 1 | DH | Yandy Díaz | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 2 | 1B | Ryan Vilade | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 |
| simulation | TB | 3 | 3B | Junior Caminero | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | TB | 4 | CF | Jonny DeLuca | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TB | 5 | LF | Chandler Simpson | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | TB | 6 | 2B | Nick Madrigal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | TB | 7 | RF | Victor Mesa Jr. | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | TB | 8 | SS | Jorge Mateo | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TB | 9 | C | Nick Fortes | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | OAK | 1 | Brady Basso | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.80 | 3.86 | 1.39 |
| current | OAK | 2 | Seth Johnson | Reliever | 1.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | ||
| current | OAK | 3 | Chris Roycroft | Reliever | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | ||
| current | OAK | 4 | Hogan Harris | Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| current | TB | 1 | Nick Martinez | Starter | 5.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.92 | 1.07 |
| current | TB | 2 | Bryan Baker | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.37 | 0.84 |
| current | TB | 3 | Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.19 | 0.81 |
| current | TB | 4 | Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 1.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 2.48 | 0.88 |
| simulation | OAK | 1 | Brady Basso | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 90 | 1.80 | 3.86 | 1.39 |
| simulation | OAK | 2 | Seth Johnson | Reliever | 1.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 18.00 | 5.40 | 1.68 |
| simulation | OAK | 3 | Chris Roycroft | Reliever | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 27.00 | 6.55 | 1.82 |
| simulation | OAK | 4 | Hogan Harris | Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.37 | 1.44 |
| simulation | TB | 1 | Nick Martinez | Starter | 5.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 77 | 0.00 | 2.92 | 1.07 |
| simulation | TB | 2 | Bryan Baker | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 1.37 | 0.84 |
| simulation | TB | 3 | Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 1.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 13.50 | 2.48 | 0.88 |
| simulation | TB | 4 | Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.19 | 0.81 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | Brady Basso | Starter | 5.0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 90 |
| OAK | Seth Johnson | Reliever | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 25 |
| OAK | Chris Roycroft | Reliever | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 26 |
| OAK | Hogan Harris | Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| TB | Nick Martinez | Starter | 5.2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 77 |
| TB | Bryan Baker | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| TB | Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| TB | Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 1.1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 26 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260916_PHI@WAS
20260916_PHI@WAS.json • 2026-09-16
PHI 5 - WAS 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Luis Arraez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Trea Turner: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; James Wood: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Abimelec Ortiz: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; José Tena: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting walks match WAS pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting hits match WAS pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PHI PA=38 matches WAS BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting walks match PHI pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting hits match PHI pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:WAS PA=37 matches PHI BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.537 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 362, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5635, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5368, 'published_confidence': 0.509833, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PHI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | WAS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.540/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 6, WAS 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 5 - WAS 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 6 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick evidence cleared the reversal bar after a blowout miss and an opponent breakout; this guardrail caps confidence and shifts runs toward the opponent, it has no authority to change the winner'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-08-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-08-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'WAS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 7, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 6, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'WAS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.533145, 'artifact': '20260915_PHI@WAS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260806', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260806_WAS@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260805', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.52661, 'artifact': '20260805_WAS@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260804', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260804_WAS@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260803', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260803_WAS@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 WAS', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 WAS', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0015, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.114, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1908, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_PHI@WAS. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@WAS. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0173, 'away_run_delta': 0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02010119433806332}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01999671237119218}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01976024391572105}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019657534140597965}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0181764121314904}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04715652114891833, '1': 0.07424808322079386, '2': 0.10391672996724131, '3': 0.12928330183819747, '4': 0.142973693384395, '5': 0.14054861652958658, '6': 0.12281566144934478, '7': 0.09539764764133617, '8': 0.06586858254932937, '9': 0.040427390318955855, '10': 0.022056156517830123, '11': 0.010696475486725, '12': 0.004611139947346247}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04540114621347763, '1': 0.07157878764799067, '2': 0.10057884948622847, '3': 0.1259603308504098, '4': 0.14059365651287906, '5': 0.13986287895235097, '6': 0.12400637298850357, '7': 0.09799193892045895, '8': 0.06901468352419375, '9': 0.04332089842570404, '10': 0.024235847602636456, '11': 0.012084363353796987, '12': 0.005370245521369767}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2698, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.044, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1908} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 WAS', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 WAS', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0015, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.114, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1908, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 5 - 4 WAS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 5 - 4 WAS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PHI wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: PHI wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | WAS wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting walks match WAS pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting hits match WAS pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PHI PA=38 matches WAS BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting walks match PHI pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting hits match PHI pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:WAS PA=37 matches PHI BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.537 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 362, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5635, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5368, 'published_confidence': 0.509833, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PHI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | WAS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.540/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 6, WAS 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 5 - WAS 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 6 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick evidence cleared the reversal bar after a blowout miss and an opponent breakout; this guardrail caps confidence and shifts runs toward the opponent, it has no authority to change the winner'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-08-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-08-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'WAS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 7, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 6, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'WAS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.533145, 'artifact': '20260915_PHI@WAS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260806', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260806_WAS@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260805', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.52661, 'artifact': '20260805_WAS@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260804', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260804_WAS@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260803', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260803_WAS@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 WAS', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 WAS', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0015, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.114, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1908, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_PHI@WAS. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@WAS. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0173, 'away_run_delta': 0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02010119433806332}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01999671237119218}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01976024391572105}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019657534140597965}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0181764121314904}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04715652114891833, '1': 0.07424808322079386, '2': 0.10391672996724131, '3': 0.12928330183819747, '4': 0.142973693384395, '5': 0.14054861652958658, '6': 0.12281566144934478, '7': 0.09539764764133617, '8': 0.06586858254932937, '9': 0.040427390318955855, '10': 0.022056156517830123, '11': 0.010696475486725, '12': 0.004611139947346247}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04540114621347763, '1': 0.07157878764799067, '2': 0.10057884948622847, '3': 0.1259603308504098, '4': 0.14059365651287906, '5': 0.13986287895235097, '6': 0.12400637298850357, '7': 0.09799193892045895, '8': 0.06901468352419375, '9': 0.04332089842570404, '10': 0.024235847602636456, '11': 0.012084363353796987, '12': 0.005370245521369767}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2698, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.044, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1908} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 WAS', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 WAS', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0015, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.114, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1908, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 5 - 4 WAS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 5 - 4 WAS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PHI wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: PHI wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | WAS wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Luis Arraez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Trea Turner: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; James Wood: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Abimelec Ortiz: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; José Tena: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 5.5499902260380045 | 3.4510801153902935 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 6 | 3 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 4 | 0.510 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 5 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | PHI | batting | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | PHI | pitching | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | WAS | batting | 32 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | WAS | pitching | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | PHI | batting | 33 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | |||||||
| simulation | PHI | pitching | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 9.0 | 4 | 37 | 157 | |||||||||
| simulation | WAS | batting | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | WAS | pitching | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 9.0 | 5 | 38 | 153 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | PHI | RF | Bryce Harper | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | 1B | Alec Bohm | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | 3B | Bryson Stott | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | 2B | Luis Arraez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | C | J.T. Realmuto | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PHI | SS | Trea Turner | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | DH | Kyle Schwarber | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | LF | Brandon Marsh | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PHI | CF | Justin Crawford | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | WAS | 2B | CJ Abrams | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | LF | Daylen Lile | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | RF | James Wood | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | CF | Dylan Crews | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | 1B | Abimelec Ortiz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | SS | Nasim Nuñez | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | WAS | DH | José Tena | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | WAS | 3B | Jorbit Vivas | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | WAS | C | Keibert Ruiz | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | PHI | 1 | DH | Kyle Schwarber | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | PHI | 2 | SS | Trea Turner | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 3 | RF | Bryce Harper | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 4 | 2B | Luis Arraez | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 5 | 1B | Alec Bohm | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PHI | 6 | 3B | Bryson Stott | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | PHI | 7 | C | J.T. Realmuto | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 8 | LF | Brandon Marsh | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | PHI | 9 | CF | Justin Crawford | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | WAS | 1 | RF | James Wood | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 2 | LF | Daylen Lile | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 3 | 1B | Abimelec Ortiz | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | WAS | 4 | 2B | CJ Abrams | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 5 | DH | José Tena | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 6 | 3B | Jorbit Vivas | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 7 | CF | Dylan Crews | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | WAS | 8 | C | Keibert Ruiz | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | WAS | 9 | SS | Nasim Nuñez | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | PHI | 1 | Zack Wheeler | Starter | 5.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.76 | 3.14 | 1.07 |
| current | PHI | 2 | Jhoan Duran | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.49 | 0.98 |
| current | PHI | 3 | Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.40 | 1.02 |
| current | PHI | 4 | Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 4.02 | 1.34 |
| current | WAS | 1 | Jared Simpson | Starter | 3.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| current | WAS | 2 | Brad Lord | Setup Man | 1.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.60 | 4.04 | 1.26 |
| current | WAS | 3 | Erik Tolman | Closer | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.38 | 1.15 |
| current | WAS | 5 | Yovanny Cruz | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.50 | 1.58 |
| current | WAS | 6 | Luis Perales | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 11.57 | 2.29 |
| simulation | PHI | 1 | Zack Wheeler | Starter | 5.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 4.76 | 3.14 | 1.07 |
| simulation | PHI | 2 | Jhoan Duran | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 1.49 | 0.98 |
| simulation | PHI | 3 | Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.40 | 1.02 |
| simulation | PHI | 4 | Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 6.75 | 4.02 | 1.34 |
| simulation | WAS | 1 | Jared Simpson | Starter | 3.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| simulation | WAS | 2 | Erik Tolman | Closer | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 0.00 | 2.38 | 1.15 |
| simulation | WAS | 3 | Brad Lord | Setup Man | 1.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 21.60 | 4.04 | 1.26 |
| simulation | WAS | 4 | Luis Perales | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 9.00 | 11.57 | 2.29 |
| simulation | WAS | 5 | Yovanny Cruz | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 4.50 | 1.58 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Zack Wheeler | Starter | 5.2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 107 |
| PHI | Jhoan Duran | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| PHI | Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| PHI | Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 |
| WAS | Jared Simpson | Starter | 3.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 58 |
| WAS | Brad Lord | Setup Man | 1.2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 33 |
| WAS | Erik Tolman | Closer | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 25 |
| WAS | Yovanny Cruz | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| WAS | Luis Perales | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260916_SD@COL
20260916_SD@COL.json • 2026-09-16
SD 7 - COL 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=12; ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Carrigg: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Troy Johnston: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Jordan Beck: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Braxton Fulford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jake McCarthy: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Kyle Karros: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=12; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Dustin Harris: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Ty France: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Cronenworth: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Samad Taylor: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | COL | BATTING_REALISM | current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SD | BATTING_REALISM | current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | COL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:COL batting walks match SD pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:COL batting home runs match SD pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:COL batting hits match SD pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:COL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:COL PA=36 matches SD BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SD batting walks match COL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SD batting home runs match COL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SD batting hits match COL pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SD batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SD PA=40 matches COL BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.718 -> 0.637 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.718209, 'sample_size': 365, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5562, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.637204, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | COL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | COL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.508/0.693. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: SD 12, COL 6. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: SD 7 - COL 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 4 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick evidence cleared the reversal bar after a blowout miss and an opponent breakout; this guardrail caps confidence and shifts runs toward the opponent, it has no authority to change the winner'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SD', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 4, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5800000000000001, 'artifact': '20260915_SD@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5800000000000001, 'artifact': '20260914_SD@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260729', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260729_COL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260728', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.57, 'artifact': '20260728_COL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SD', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 7 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 7 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0006, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.166, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2816, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_SD@COL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@COL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': -0.0, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.013694859057718525}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.013566519874610614}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.013448328509250993}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.01332229964778043}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.012992704899441838}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.031940430449542825, '1': 0.05086713965195095, '2': 0.07367102916272278, '3': 0.09703290278948101, '4': 0.11622623717525205, '5': 0.12660539103579638, '6': 0.12541892884629074, '7': 0.11298917636429641, '8': 0.09257068247711671, '9': 0.06897202158853304, '10': 0.046734253775067444, '11': 0.028797881264680497, '12': 0.016137959757805995, '13': 0.008224312175066638, '14': 0.0038116534863964564}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.01692026521197117, '1': 0.02727398892411904, '2': 0.04095839249156164, '3': 0.057304654280277055, '4': 0.07469467464851133, '5': 0.0907072776447142, '6': 0.10262363074071848, '7': 0.1081696359505453, '8': 0.10622240016184316, '9': 0.09718060588663753, '10': 0.08283156068028018, '11': 0.06577560264826661, '12': 0.0486616215993338, '13': 0.03353984632824205, '14': 0.021537153798611514, '15': 0.012884521666051587, '16': 0.00718126644653422, '17': 0.0037289497495791345, '18': 0.0018039511422020436}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.457, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.956, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.2816} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 7 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 7 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0006, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.166, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2816, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 7 - 5 COL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 7 - 5 COL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SD wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-5, final 7-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 12. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: SD wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | COL wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | COL | BATTING_REALISM | current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SD | BATTING_REALISM | current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | COL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:COL batting walks match SD pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:COL batting home runs match SD pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:COL batting hits match SD pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:COL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:COL PA=36 matches SD BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SD batting walks match COL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SD batting home runs match COL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SD batting hits match COL pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SD batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SD PA=40 matches COL BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.718 -> 0.637 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.718209, 'sample_size': 365, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5562, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.637204, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | COL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | COL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.508/0.693. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: SD 12, COL 6. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: SD 7 - COL 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 4 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick evidence cleared the reversal bar after a blowout miss and an opponent breakout; this guardrail caps confidence and shifts runs toward the opponent, it has no authority to change the winner'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SD', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 4, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5800000000000001, 'artifact': '20260915_SD@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5800000000000001, 'artifact': '20260914_SD@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260729', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260729_COL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260728', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.57, 'artifact': '20260728_COL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SD', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 7 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 7 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0006, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.166, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2816, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_SD@COL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@COL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': -0.0, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.013694859057718525}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.013566519874610614}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.013448328509250993}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.01332229964778043}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.012992704899441838}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.031940430449542825, '1': 0.05086713965195095, '2': 0.07367102916272278, '3': 0.09703290278948101, '4': 0.11622623717525205, '5': 0.12660539103579638, '6': 0.12541892884629074, '7': 0.11298917636429641, '8': 0.09257068247711671, '9': 0.06897202158853304, '10': 0.046734253775067444, '11': 0.028797881264680497, '12': 0.016137959757805995, '13': 0.008224312175066638, '14': 0.0038116534863964564}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.01692026521197117, '1': 0.02727398892411904, '2': 0.04095839249156164, '3': 0.057304654280277055, '4': 0.07469467464851133, '5': 0.0907072776447142, '6': 0.10262363074071848, '7': 0.1081696359505453, '8': 0.10622240016184316, '9': 0.09718060588663753, '10': 0.08283156068028018, '11': 0.06577560264826661, '12': 0.0486616215993338, '13': 0.03353984632824205, '14': 0.021537153798611514, '15': 0.012884521666051587, '16': 0.00718126644653422, '17': 0.0037289497495791345, '18': 0.0018039511422020436}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.457, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.956, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.2816} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 7 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 7 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0006, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.166, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2816, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 7 - 5 COL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 7 - 5 COL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SD wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-5, final 7-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 12. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: SD wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | COL wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=12; ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Carrigg: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Troy Johnston: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Jordan Beck: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Braxton Fulford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jake McCarthy: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Kyle Karros: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=12; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Dustin Harris: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Ty France: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Cronenworth: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Samad Taylor: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 5.532080903361251 | 4.866854319419893 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 6 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 7 | 5 | 0.530 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 7 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 7 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 7 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 7 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| COL | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SD | batting | 34 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | SD | pitching | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | COL | batting | 32 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | COL | pitching | 10 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | SD | batting | 38 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | SD | pitching | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 9.0 | 5 | 36 | 152 | |||||||||
| simulation | COL | batting | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | COL | pitching | 12 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 9.0 | 7 | 40 | 151 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SD | DH | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | RF | Dustin Harris | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | SS | Xander Bogaerts | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | CF | Jackson Merrill | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | 3B | Manny Machado | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | 1B | Ty France | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | 2B | Jake Cronenworth | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | LF | Samad Taylor | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SD | C | Ethan Salas | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | COL | CF | Cole Carrigg | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | DH | Adael Amador | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | 1B | Troy Johnston | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | COL | RF | Jordan Beck | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | COL | C | Braxton Fulford | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | COL | 2B | Connor Norby | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | LF | Jake McCarthy | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | 3B | Kyle Karros | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | SS | Ezequiel Tovar | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | SD | 1 | DH | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SD | 2 | RF | Dustin Harris | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SD | 3 | 3B | Manny Machado | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | SD | 4 | 1B | Ty France | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SD | 5 | CF | Jackson Merrill | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SD | 6 | SS | Xander Bogaerts | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SD | 7 | 2B | Jake Cronenworth | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SD | 8 | LF | Samad Taylor | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | SD | 9 | C | Ethan Salas | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | COL | 1 | LF | Jake McCarthy | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | COL | 2 | 2B | Connor Norby | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | COL | 3 | CF | Cole Carrigg | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | COL | 4 | 3B | Kyle Karros | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | COL | 5 | DH | Adael Amador | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | COL | 6 | 1B | Troy Johnston | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | COL | 7 | RF | Jordan Beck | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | COL | 8 | C | Braxton Fulford | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | COL | 9 | SS | Ezequiel Tovar | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SD | 1 | Robbie Ray | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.20 | 3.57 | 1.35 |
| current | SD | 2 | Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.87 | 1.07 |
| current | SD | 3 | Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.85 | 0.99 |
| current | SD | 4 | Mason Miller | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 1.12 | 0.85 |
| current | SD | 5 | Yuki Matsui | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.98 | 1.12 |
| current | COL | 1 | Mason Adams | Starter | 4.2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.64 | 3.38 | 1.45 |
| current | COL | 2 | Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.43 | 1.11 |
| current | COL | 3 | Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.54 | 1.49 |
| current | COL | 4 | Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6.00 | 1.52 |
| current | COL | 5 | Jordan Romano | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.25 | 1.25 |
| current | COL | 6 | Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5.48 | 1.75 |
| simulation | SD | 1 | Robbie Ray | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 97 | 7.20 | 3.57 | 1.35 |
| simulation | SD | 2 | Mason Miller | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 1.12 | 0.85 |
| simulation | SD | 3 | Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.87 | 1.07 |
| simulation | SD | 4 | Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 1.85 | 0.99 |
| simulation | SD | 5 | Yuki Matsui | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 1.98 | 1.12 |
| simulation | COL | 1 | Mason Adams | Starter | 4.2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 78 | 9.64 | 3.38 | 1.45 |
| simulation | COL | 2 | Jordan Romano | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 4.25 | 1.25 |
| simulation | COL | 3 | Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.43 | 1.11 |
| simulation | COL | 4 | Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 6.00 | 1.52 |
| simulation | COL | 5 | Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0.00 | 4.54 | 1.49 |
| simulation | COL | 6 | Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 54.00 | 5.48 | 1.75 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | Robbie Ray | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 97 |
| SD | Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| SD | Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| SD | Mason Miller | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| SD | Yuki Matsui | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| COL | Mason Adams | Starter | 4.2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 78 |
| COL | Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| COL | Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| COL | Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
| COL | Jordan Romano | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| COL | Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260916_SEA@LAA
20260916_SEA@LAA.json • 2026-09-16
SEA 5 - LAA 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Josh Lowe: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Moore: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Adam Frazier: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Denzer Guzman: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=11). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randy Arozarena: RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; J.P. Crawford: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Taylor Ward: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cole Young: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting walks match SEA pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting hits match SEA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAA PA=41 matches SEA BF=41. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting walks match LAA pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting hits match LAA pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SEA PA=35 matches LAA BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.527 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 474, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5443, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5272, 'published_confidence': 0.505216, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SEA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.491/0.674. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 5, LAA 9. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 5 - LAA 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-07-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'SEA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260915_SEA@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.527588, 'artifact': '20260914_SEA@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260702', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260702_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260630', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5445139999999999, 'artifact': '20260630_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260629', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5234, 'artifact': '20260629_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SEA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SEA', 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0746, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.014, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1083, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_SEA@LAA. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@LAA. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019831378612182787}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019819459703979327}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019589262852377887}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01957748945879407}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01786528528698756}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.046444128552184806, '1': 0.07316561983538139, '2': 0.1025664989446107, '3': 0.1279458618456783, '4': 0.1420264377178342, '5': 0.14029247662753902, '6': 0.12331667528347692, '7': 0.09645649353719196, '8': 0.06713722250550297, '9': 0.04158316180555431, '10': 0.022918906003842644, '11': 0.011240677717384781, '12': 0.004905839623818033}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04472243009908321, '1': 0.07054486033606605, '2': 0.0992784738304907, '3': 0.12465064694662582, '4': 0.13963159909412112, '5': 0.13954767874524115, '6': 0.12442603217290675, '7': 0.09898049416193765, '8': 0.07024860647707133, '9': 0.0444811021534266, '10': 0.025128299287230642, '11': 0.012664859687307515, '12': 0.005694917008491527}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1968, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.056, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1083} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0746, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.014, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1083, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 178. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 178. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 5 - 4 LAA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 5 - 4 LAA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: SEA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting walks match SEA pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting hits match SEA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAA PA=41 matches SEA BF=41. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting walks match LAA pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting hits match LAA pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SEA PA=35 matches LAA BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.527 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 474, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5443, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5272, 'published_confidence': 0.505216, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SEA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.491/0.674. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 5, LAA 9. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 5 - LAA 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-07-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'SEA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260915_SEA@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.527588, 'artifact': '20260914_SEA@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260702', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260702_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260630', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5445139999999999, 'artifact': '20260630_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260629', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5234, 'artifact': '20260629_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SEA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SEA', 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0746, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.014, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1083, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_SEA@LAA. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@LAA. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019831378612182787}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019819459703979327}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019589262852377887}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01957748945879407}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01786528528698756}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.046444128552184806, '1': 0.07316561983538139, '2': 0.1025664989446107, '3': 0.1279458618456783, '4': 0.1420264377178342, '5': 0.14029247662753902, '6': 0.12331667528347692, '7': 0.09645649353719196, '8': 0.06713722250550297, '9': 0.04158316180555431, '10': 0.022918906003842644, '11': 0.011240677717384781, '12': 0.004905839623818033}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04472243009908321, '1': 0.07054486033606605, '2': 0.0992784738304907, '3': 0.12465064694662582, '4': 0.13963159909412112, '5': 0.13954767874524115, '6': 0.12442603217290675, '7': 0.09898049416193765, '8': 0.07024860647707133, '9': 0.0444811021534266, '10': 0.025128299287230642, '11': 0.012664859687307515, '12': 0.005694917008491527}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1968, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.056, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1083} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0746, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.014, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1083, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 178. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 178. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 5 - 4 LAA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 5 - 4 LAA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: SEA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Josh Lowe: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Moore: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Adam Frazier: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Denzer Guzman: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=11). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randy Arozarena: RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; J.P. Crawford: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Taylor Ward: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cole Young: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.218378261730815 | 4.017284231972099 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 4 | 0.505 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 5 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SEA | batting | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | SEA | pitching | 9 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | LAA | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | LAA | pitching | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | SEA | batting | 32 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | SEA | pitching | 9 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 41 | 178 | |||||||||
| simulation | LAA | batting | 35 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | LAA | pitching | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 9.0 | 5 | 35 | 161 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SEA | LF | Randy Arozarena | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | C | Cal Raleigh | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | SS | J.P. Crawford | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | RF | Taylor Ward | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SEA | DH | Dominic Canzone | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | CF | Julio Rodríguez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | 2B | Cole Young | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | 1B | Josh Naylor | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | 3B | Weston Wilson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | LAA | LF | Wade Meckler | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | 1B | Vaughn Grissom | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | C | Moisés Ballesteros | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | RF | Josh Lowe | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | LAA | DH | Christian Moore | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | LAA | 2B | Adam Frazier | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | LAA | CF | Mike Trout | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | 3B | Denzer Guzman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | SS | Zach Neto | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | SEA | 1 | SS | J.P. Crawford | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SEA | 2 | LF | Randy Arozarena | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SEA | 3 | DH | Dominic Canzone | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SEA | 4 | C | Cal Raleigh | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SEA | 5 | CF | Julio Rodríguez | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SEA | 6 | 1B | Josh Naylor | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SEA | 7 | RF | Taylor Ward | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SEA | 8 | 2B | Cole Young | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SEA | 9 | 3B | Weston Wilson | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAA | 1 | SS | Zach Neto | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAA | 2 | CF | Mike Trout | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAA | 3 | LF | Wade Meckler | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | LAA | 4 | 1B | Vaughn Grissom | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAA | 5 | C | Moisés Ballesteros | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | LAA | 6 | 3B | Denzer Guzman | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAA | 7 | RF | Josh Lowe | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | LAA | 8 | DH | Christian Moore | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAA | 9 | 2B | Adam Frazier | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SEA | 1 | George Kirby | Starter | 5.2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.59 | 4.25 | 1.36 |
| current | SEA | 2 | Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.93 | 1.15 |
| current | SEA | 3 | Gabe Speier | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.95 | 1.10 |
| current | SEA | 4 | Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 3.84 | 1.44 |
| current | SEA | 5 | José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.75 | 1.42 |
| current | LAA | 1 | Yusei Kikuchi | Starter | 4.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.71 | 4.75 | 1.49 |
| current | LAA | 2 | Ben Joyce | Closer | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 3.38 | 1.12 |
| current | LAA | 3 | José Fermin | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 1.29 |
| current | LAA | 4 | Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.99 | 1.24 |
| current | LAA | 6 | Tayler Saucedo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.89 | 1.02 |
| simulation | SEA | 1 | George Kirby | Starter | 5.2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 25 | 105 | 1.59 | 4.25 | 1.36 |
| simulation | SEA | 2 | Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 0.00 | 3.93 | 1.15 |
| simulation | SEA | 3 | José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 3.75 | 1.42 |
| simulation | SEA | 4 | Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 27.00 | 3.84 | 1.44 |
| simulation | SEA | 5 | Gabe Speier | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 2.95 | 1.10 |
| simulation | LAA | 1 | Yusei Kikuchi | Starter | 4.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 20 | 91 | 7.71 | 4.75 | 1.49 |
| simulation | LAA | 2 | Ben Joyce | Closer | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 5.40 | 3.38 | 1.12 |
| simulation | LAA | 3 | Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.99 | 1.24 |
| simulation | LAA | 4 | Tayler Saucedo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 2.89 | 1.02 |
| simulation | LAA | 5 | José Fermin | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 1.29 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | George Kirby | Starter | 5.2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 105 |
| SEA | Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 27 |
| SEA | Gabe Speier | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| SEA | Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 22 |
| SEA | José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Starter | 4.2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 91 |
| LAA | Ben Joyce | Closer | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 36 |
| LAA | José Fermin | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| LAA | Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| LAA | Tayler Saucedo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260916_SF@STL
20260916_SF@STL.json • 2026-09-16
SF 5 - STL 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=5). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=12; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Eldridge: H current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Shay Whitcomb: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Turner Hill: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Scott Bandura: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=10; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Joshua Baez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Gorman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | SF | BATTING_REALISM | current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | STL | BATTING_REALISM | current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SF | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | STL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SF batting walks match STL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SF batting home runs match STL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SF batting hits match STL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SF batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SF PA=41 matches STL BF=41. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:STL batting walks match SF pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:STL batting home runs match SF pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:STL batting hits match SF pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:STL batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:STL PA=43 matches SF BF=43. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.563 -> 0.553 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.563347, 'sample_size': 464, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5431, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.553223, 'published_confidence': 0.51358, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SF current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SF current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | STL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | STL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.514. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.514. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.486. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.531/0.720. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: SF 7, STL 8. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: SF 5 - STL 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SF. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SF. | {'winner_confidence': 0.5135796, 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.553117, 'artifact': '20260915_SF@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260914_SF@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260909', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.521009, 'artifact': '20260909_STL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260908', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.526031, 'artifact': '20260908_STL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260907', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.626764, 'artifact': '20260907_STL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_SF@STL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@STL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0519, 'away_run_delta': 0.0519, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02102248847046888}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020880931942687444}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01994756416953203}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019813245726427498}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019539828026193758}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05240099549842188, '1': 0.08218183564017031, '2': 0.11367226127733278, '3': 0.13866776741881556, '4': 0.1491897235676727, '5': 0.14156133744496333, '6': 0.11846573873426837, '7': 0.0874345821344892, '8': 0.056913602017195045, '9': 0.03267316970099299, '10': 0.01654279264940553, '11': 0.007387011005175168, '12': 0.002909182911097082}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04562881214479516, '1': 0.07192537424324454, '2': 0.10101381990411144, '3': 0.126396531277778, '4': 0.14091110277399935, '5': 0.13996226712770748, '6': 0.12386038352181448, '7': 0.0976583920012971, '8': 0.06860289051830373, '9': 0.042936926844203006, '10': 0.02394281426250597, '11': 0.011895292694360108, '12': 0.00526539268587957}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.244, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2396} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SF 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SF 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0678, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.454, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SF', 'model_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SF', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'SF', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2396, 'winner': 'SF', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 193. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 193. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 5 - 4 STL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 5 - 4 STL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: SF wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=SF, simulation=SF, published=SF. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.514. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SF wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: SF wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: SF wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | STL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | SF | BATTING_REALISM | current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | STL | BATTING_REALISM | current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SF | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | STL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SF batting walks match STL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SF batting home runs match STL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SF batting hits match STL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SF batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SF PA=41 matches STL BF=41. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:STL batting walks match SF pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:STL batting home runs match SF pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:STL batting hits match SF pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:STL batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:STL PA=43 matches SF BF=43. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.563 -> 0.553 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.563347, 'sample_size': 464, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5431, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.553223, 'published_confidence': 0.51358, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SF current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SF current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | STL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | STL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.514. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.514. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.486. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.531/0.720. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: SF 7, STL 8. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: SF 5 - STL 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SF. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SF. | {'winner_confidence': 0.5135796, 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260915', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.553117, 'artifact': '20260915_SF@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260914_SF@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260909', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.521009, 'artifact': '20260909_STL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260908', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.526031, 'artifact': '20260908_STL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260907', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.626764, 'artifact': '20260907_STL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260916_SF@STL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@STL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0519, 'away_run_delta': 0.0519, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02102248847046888}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020880931942687444}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01994756416953203}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019813245726427498}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019539828026193758}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05240099549842188, '1': 0.08218183564017031, '2': 0.11367226127733278, '3': 0.13866776741881556, '4': 0.1491897235676727, '5': 0.14156133744496333, '6': 0.11846573873426837, '7': 0.0874345821344892, '8': 0.056913602017195045, '9': 0.03267316970099299, '10': 0.01654279264940553, '11': 0.007387011005175168, '12': 0.002909182911097082}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04562881214479516, '1': 0.07192537424324454, '2': 0.10101381990411144, '3': 0.126396531277778, '4': 0.14091110277399935, '5': 0.13996226712770748, '6': 0.12386038352181448, '7': 0.0976583920012971, '8': 0.06860289051830373, '9': 0.042936926844203006, '10': 0.02394281426250597, '11': 0.011895292694360108, '12': 0.00526539268587957}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.95, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.244, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2396} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SF 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SF 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0678, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.454, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SF', 'model_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SF', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'SF', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2396, 'winner': 'SF', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 193. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 193. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 5 - 4 STL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 5 - 4 STL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: SF wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=SF, simulation=SF, published=SF. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.514. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SF wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: SF wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: SF wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | STL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=5). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=12; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Eldridge: H current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Shay Whitcomb: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Turner Hill: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Scott Bandura: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=10; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Joshua Baez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Gorman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.8687612445370494 | 4.358401094119014 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 4 | 0.514 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 5 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SF | batting | 31 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | SF | pitching | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | STL | batting | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | STL | pitching | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | SF | batting | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | SF | pitching | 8 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 10.0 | 4 | 43 | 193 | |||||||||
| simulation | STL | batting | 37 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | STL | pitching | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 10.0 | 5 | 41 | 169 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SF | 1B | Bryce Eldridge | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | DH | Jung Hoo Lee | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | 2B | Shay Whitcomb | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | LF | Turner Hill | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SF | RF | Scott Bandura | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | SF | SS | Christian Koss | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SF | C | Andrew Knizner | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SF | CF | Jonah Cox | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | 3B | Brett Harris | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | STL | 2B | JJ Wetherholt | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | DH | Leonardo Bernal | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | LF | Joshua Baez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | SS | Thomas Saggese | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | STL | 3B | Nolan Gorman | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | STL | RF | Jordan Walker | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | 1B | Alec Burleson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | CF | Nathan Church | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | STL | C | Pedro Pagés | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | SF | 1 | CF | Jonah Cox | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 2 | 1B | Bryce Eldridge | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | SF | 3 | 3B | Brett Harris | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 4 | DH | Jung Hoo Lee | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | SF | 5 | 2B | Shay Whitcomb | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | SF | 6 | LF | Turner Hill | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SF | 7 | C | Andrew Knizner | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SF | 8 | RF | Scott Bandura | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 9 | SS | Christian Koss | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 1 | 2B | JJ Wetherholt | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 2 | DH | Leonardo Bernal | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | STL | 3 | 1B | Alec Burleson | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | STL | 4 | RF | Jordan Walker | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 5 | LF | Joshua Baez | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 6 | 3B | Nolan Gorman | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 7 | SS | Thomas Saggese | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | STL | 8 | CF | Nathan Church | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | STL | 9 | C | Pedro Pagés | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SF | 1 | Anthony Molina | Starter | 4.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.86 | 5.24 | 1.25 |
| current | SF | 2 | Jason Foley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 4.15 | 1.57 |
| current | SF | 3 | Carson Seymour | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 5.19 | 1.65 |
| current | SF | 4 | Dylan Smith | Closer | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.06 | 1.39 |
| current | SF | 5 | Trent Harris | Setup Man | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.50 | 1.11 | |
| current | STL | 1 | Matthew Liberatore | Starter | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.20 | 5.53 | 1.49 |
| current | STL | 2 | Justin Bruihl | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.58 | 1.33 |
| current | STL | 3 | Riley O'Brien | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 4.13 | 1.28 |
| current | STL | 4 | Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.05 | 1.33 |
| current | STL | 5 | George Soriano | Setup Man | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.36 | 1.42 |
| current | STL | 6 | Gordon Graceffo | Middle Reliever | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.61 | 1.04 | |
| simulation | SF | 1 | Anthony Molina | Starter | 4.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 21 | 95 | 3.86 | 5.24 | 1.25 |
| simulation | SF | 2 | Dylan Smith | Closer | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 0.00 | 3.06 | 1.39 |
| simulation | SF | 3 | Trent Harris | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 1.11 |
| simulation | SF | 4 | Carson Seymour | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 9.00 | 5.19 | 1.65 |
| simulation | SF | 5 | Jason Foley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 6.75 | 4.15 | 1.57 |
| simulation | STL | 1 | Matthew Liberatore | Starter | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 22 | 90 | 7.20 | 5.53 | 1.49 |
| simulation | STL | 2 | Riley O'Brien | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 4.13 | 1.28 |
| simulation | STL | 3 | George Soriano | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 4.36 | 1.42 |
| simulation | STL | 4 | Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 4.05 | 1.33 |
| simulation | STL | 5 | Justin Bruihl | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 3.58 | 1.33 |
| simulation | STL | 6 | Gordon Graceffo | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.00 | 2.61 | 1.04 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Anthony Molina | Starter | 4.2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 95 |
| SF | Jason Foley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 30 |
| SF | Carson Seymour | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 |
| SF | Dylan Smith | Closer | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| SF | Trent Harris | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| STL | Matthew Liberatore | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 90 |
| STL | Justin Bruihl | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| STL | Riley O'Brien | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
| STL | Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21 |
| STL | George Soriano | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| STL | Gordon Graceffo | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |