20260912_BAL@TOR
20260912_BAL@TOR.json • 2026-09-12
BAL 3 - TOR 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=10, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Jackson Holliday: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Pete Alonso: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Dylan Beavers: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Kirk: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brett Bateman: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; George Springer: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting walks match TOR pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting hits match TOR pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BAL PA=34 matches TOR BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting walks match BAL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting hits match BAL pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TOR PA=33 matches BAL BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.556 -> 0.557 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.556469, 'sample_size': 267, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5581, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.557284, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BAL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TOR current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.558/0.749. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 6, TOR 6. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 3 - TOR 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for TOR; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-06-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-06-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'TOR'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260911_BAL@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TOR', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TOR', 'final_score_winner': 'TOR', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BAL 3 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BAL 3 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1431, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.33, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0675, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_BAL@TOR. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@TOR. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.075, 'away_run_delta': 0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02814368161577459}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02799103666295569}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.026972662100078943}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02682636849180564}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02485948017581114}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06361886010728458, '1': 0.10119075165981788, '2': 0.1381332053457018, '3': 0.16182949781812683, '4': 0.16271201090103263, '5': 0.140405418229331, '6': 0.10398015289843637, '7': 0.06608750633705607, '8': 0.03604878299420232, '9': 0.016875792591799627, '10': 0.00678016214345879, '11': 0.0023378589737520702}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07231973217162954, '1': 0.11424510509163316, '2': 0.15278208435965787, '3': 0.17296622087039784, '4': 0.1657693365764172, '5': 0.1344934514732819, '6': 0.09237450309669457, '7': 0.05371024437209634, '8': 0.02643724393288973, '9': 0.011016135391846458, '10': 0.0038859426634553175}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1115, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.4, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0675} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BAL 3 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BAL 3 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1431, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.33, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0675, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 3 - 4 TOR. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 3 - 4 TOR. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=TOR, simulation=TOR, published=TOR. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TOR wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: TOR wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BAL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TOR wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting walks match TOR pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting hits match TOR pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BAL PA=34 matches TOR BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting walks match BAL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting hits match BAL pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TOR PA=33 matches BAL BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.556 -> 0.557 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.556469, 'sample_size': 267, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5581, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.557284, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BAL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TOR current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.558/0.749. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 6, TOR 6. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 3 - TOR 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for TOR; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-06-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-06-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'TOR'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260911_BAL@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TOR', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TOR', 'final_score_winner': 'TOR', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BAL 3 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BAL 3 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1431, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.33, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0675, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_BAL@TOR. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@TOR. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.075, 'away_run_delta': 0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02814368161577459}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02799103666295569}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.026972662100078943}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02682636849180564}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02485948017581114}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06361886010728458, '1': 0.10119075165981788, '2': 0.1381332053457018, '3': 0.16182949781812683, '4': 0.16271201090103263, '5': 0.140405418229331, '6': 0.10398015289843637, '7': 0.06608750633705607, '8': 0.03604878299420232, '9': 0.016875792591799627, '10': 0.00678016214345879, '11': 0.0023378589737520702}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07231973217162954, '1': 0.11424510509163316, '2': 0.15278208435965787, '3': 0.17296622087039784, '4': 0.1657693365764172, '5': 0.1344934514732819, '6': 0.09237450309669457, '7': 0.05371024437209634, '8': 0.02643724393288973, '9': 0.011016135391846458, '10': 0.0038859426634553175}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1115, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.4, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0675} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BAL 3 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BAL 3 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1431, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.33, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0675, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 3 - 4 TOR. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 3 - 4 TOR. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=TOR, simulation=TOR, published=TOR. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TOR wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: TOR wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BAL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TOR wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=10, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Jackson Holliday: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Pete Alonso: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Dylan Beavers: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Kirk: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brett Bateman: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; George Springer: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.234862132692605 | 5.508212066451755 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 3 | 6 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 3 | 4 | 0.530 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 3 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 3 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 3 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 3 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| TOR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | BAL | batting | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | BAL | pitching | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | TOR | batting | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | TOR | pitching | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | BAL | batting | 33 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | BAL | pitching | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8.0 | 4 | 33 | 135 | |||||||||
| simulation | TOR | batting | 30 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | TOR | pitching | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 3 | 34 | 132 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | BAL | DH | Coby Mayo | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | 2B | Jackson Holliday | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | C | Samuel Basallo | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | SS | Gunnar Henderson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | 1B | Pete Alonso | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | RF | Leody Taveras | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | BAL | 3B | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | LF | Dylan Beavers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | CF | Colton Cowser | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | TOR | C | Alejandro Kirk | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | CF | Brett Bateman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | 1B | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | DH | George Springer | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | RF | Nathan Lukes | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | LF | Myles Straw | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | TOR | 3B | Kazuma Okamoto | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | 2B | Ernie Clement | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | SS | Andrés Giménez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | BAL | 1 | 2B | Jackson Holliday | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 2 | 1B | Pete Alonso | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BAL | 3 | SS | Gunnar Henderson | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | BAL | 4 | DH | Coby Mayo | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BAL | 5 | C | Samuel Basallo | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 6 | 3B | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 7 | LF | Dylan Beavers | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 8 | CF | Colton Cowser | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | BAL | 9 | RF | Leody Taveras | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | TOR | 1 | CF | Brett Bateman | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TOR | 2 | DH | George Springer | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | TOR | 3 | 1B | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TOR | 4 | C | Alejandro Kirk | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | TOR | 5 | RF | Nathan Lukes | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TOR | 6 | 3B | Kazuma Okamoto | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TOR | 7 | SS | Andrés Giménez | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | TOR | 8 | 2B | Ernie Clement | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TOR | 9 | LF | Myles Straw | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | BAL | 1 | Kyle Bradish | Starter | 5.1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 3.91 | 1.42 |
| current | BAL | 3 | Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.44 | 0.89 |
| current | BAL | 6 | Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.74 | 1.40 |
| current | TOR | 1 | Spencer Miles | Starter | 5.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.60 | 2.77 | 1.05 |
| current | TOR | 2 | Louis Varland | Closer | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.24 | 1.01 |
| current | TOR | 3 | Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 1.78 | 1.17 |
| current | TOR | 5 | Mason Fluharty | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.83 | 1.17 |
| simulation | BAL | 1 | Kyle Bradish | Starter | 5.1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 101 | 6.75 | 3.91 | 1.42 |
| simulation | BAL | 2 | Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 3.74 | 1.40 |
| simulation | BAL | 3 | Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.44 | 0.89 |
| simulation | TOR | 1 | Spencer Miles | Starter | 5.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 66 | 3.60 | 2.77 | 1.05 |
| simulation | TOR | 2 | Louis Varland | Closer | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 0.00 | 1.24 | 1.01 |
| simulation | TOR | 3 | Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 9.00 | 1.78 | 1.17 |
| simulation | TOR | 4 | Mason Fluharty | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 0.00 | 2.83 | 1.17 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Kyle Bradish | Starter | 5.1 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 101 |
| BAL | Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| BAL | Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| TOR | Spencer Miles | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 66 |
| TOR | Louis Varland | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 24 |
| TOR | Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| TOR | Mason Fluharty | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260912_CHW@STL
20260912_CHW@STL.json • 2026-09-12
CHW 3 - STL 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=7). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Braden Montgomery: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Colson Montgomery: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Kyle Teel: H current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Fermín: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Joshua Baez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ramón Urías: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Masyn Winn: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | STL | BATTING_REALISM | current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | STL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting walks match STL pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting home runs match STL pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting hits match STL pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHW PA=41 matches STL BF=41. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:STL batting walks match CHW pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:STL batting home runs match CHW pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:STL batting hits match CHW pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:STL batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:STL PA=33 matches CHW BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.672 -> 0.611 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.6725, 'sample_size': 229, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5502, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.61135, 'published_confidence': 0.590795, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHW current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | STL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | STL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.409. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.591. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.591. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.682/0.893. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 8, STL 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 3 - STL 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL. | {'winner_confidence': 0.5907952999999999, 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.598363, 'artifact': '20260911_CHW@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_CHW@STL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@STL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0333, 'away_run_delta': -0.0333, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.027928944858143016}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.027168213788814136}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.026443181342905978}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.025722919631565984}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025305519434942955}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04669114737357224, '1': 0.07526134283976403, '2': 0.10692436129844282, '3': 0.13389015729677436, '4': 0.14777056166751376, '5': 0.14374557404397018, '6': 0.12324472050720071, '7': 0.0931342565659159, '8': 0.062032297338705016, '9': 0.03641611096590143, '10': 0.018842414242789953, '11': 0.008593039658998007, '12': 0.0034540162004513667}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08954237107363834, '1': 0.139501788164755, '2': 0.17894755927370418, '3': 0.18900208906956453, '4': 0.16436231527001516, '5': 0.11768814471770611, '6': 0.06938378749591735, '7': 0.0336804674553617, '8': 0.01346148706521941, '9': 0.004429990414118371}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3176, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.484, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.037} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHW 3 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHW 3 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0338, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.834, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'STL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.037, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 3 - 4 STL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 3 - 4 STL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=STL, simulation=STL, published=STL. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.591. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): STL wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: STL wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHW wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | STL | BATTING_REALISM | current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | STL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting walks match STL pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting home runs match STL pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting hits match STL pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHW PA=41 matches STL BF=41. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:STL batting walks match CHW pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:STL batting home runs match CHW pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:STL batting hits match CHW pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:STL batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:STL PA=33 matches CHW BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.672 -> 0.611 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.6725, 'sample_size': 229, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5502, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.61135, 'published_confidence': 0.590795, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHW current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | STL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | STL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.409. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.591. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.591. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.682/0.893. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 8, STL 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 3 - STL 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL. | {'winner_confidence': 0.5907952999999999, 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.598363, 'artifact': '20260911_CHW@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_CHW@STL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@STL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0333, 'away_run_delta': -0.0333, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.027928944858143016}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.027168213788814136}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.026443181342905978}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.025722919631565984}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025305519434942955}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04669114737357224, '1': 0.07526134283976403, '2': 0.10692436129844282, '3': 0.13389015729677436, '4': 0.14777056166751376, '5': 0.14374557404397018, '6': 0.12324472050720071, '7': 0.0931342565659159, '8': 0.062032297338705016, '9': 0.03641611096590143, '10': 0.018842414242789953, '11': 0.008593039658998007, '12': 0.0034540162004513667}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08954237107363834, '1': 0.139501788164755, '2': 0.17894755927370418, '3': 0.18900208906956453, '4': 0.16436231527001516, '5': 0.11768814471770611, '6': 0.06938378749591735, '7': 0.0336804674553617, '8': 0.01346148706521941, '9': 0.004429990414118371}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3176, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.484, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.037} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHW 3 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHW 3 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0338, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.834, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'STL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.037, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 3 - 4 STL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 3 - 4 STL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=STL, simulation=STL, published=STL. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.591. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): STL wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: STL wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHW wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=7). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Braden Montgomery: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Colson Montgomery: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Kyle Teel: H current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Fermín: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Joshua Baez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ramón Urías: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Masyn Winn: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.622814655927683 | 4.682492709043651 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 3 | 4 | 0.591 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 3 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 3 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 3 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 3 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CHW | batting | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CHW | pitching | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | STL | batting | 34 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | STL | pitching | 8 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | CHW | batting | 35 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | CHW | pitching | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8.0 | 4 | 33 | 146 | |||||||||
| simulation | STL | batting | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | |||||||
| simulation | STL | pitching | 8 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9.0 | 3 | 41 | 170 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CHW | LF | Sam Antonacci | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | 1B | Munetaka Murakami | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | RF | Braden Montgomery | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | CF | Tristan Peters | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHW | 3B | Miguel Vargas | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | SS | Colson Montgomery | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | DH | Andrew Benintendi | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHW | C | Kyle Teel | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | CHW | 2B | Chase Meidroth | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | STL | CF | José Fermín | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | LF | Joshua Baez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | C | Leonardo Bernal | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | 1B | Alec Burleson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | 2B | Thomas Saggese | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | STL | RF | Jordan Walker | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | DH | Iván Herrera | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | 3B | Ramón Urías | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | STL | SS | Masyn Winn | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | CHW | 1 | LF | Sam Antonacci | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHW | 2 | 3B | Miguel Vargas | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHW | 3 | 1B | Munetaka Murakami | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHW | 4 | DH | Andrew Benintendi | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | CHW | 5 | SS | Colson Montgomery | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | CHW | 6 | RF | Braden Montgomery | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHW | 7 | CF | Tristan Peters | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHW | 8 | 2B | Chase Meidroth | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHW | 9 | C | Kyle Teel | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | STL | 1 | CF | José Fermín | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 2 | DH | Iván Herrera | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 3 | RF | Jordan Walker | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | STL | 4 | 1B | Alec Burleson | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 5 | LF | Joshua Baez | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 6 | C | Leonardo Bernal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 |
| simulation | STL | 7 | SS | Masyn Winn | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | STL | 8 | 2B | Thomas Saggese | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | STL | 9 | 3B | Ramón Urías | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CHW | 1 | Sean Newcomb | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.60 | 2.71 | 1.11 |
| current | CHW | 2 | Grant Taylor | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.40 | 1.03 |
| current | CHW | 3 | Bryan Hudson | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.58 | 1.16 |
| current | CHW | 5 | Jordan Hicks | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 3.83 | 1.50 |
| current | STL | 1 | Kyle Leahy | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.41 | 1.33 |
| current | STL | 2 | Justin Bruihl | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 3.62 | 1.35 |
| current | STL | 3 | Riley O'Brien | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.97 | 1.25 |
| current | STL | 4 | Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.19 | 1.34 |
| current | STL | 5 | George Soriano | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.50 | 1.39 |
| simulation | CHW | 1 | Sean Newcomb | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 88 | 3.60 | 2.71 | 1.11 |
| simulation | CHW | 2 | Grant Taylor | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 0.00 | 2.40 | 1.03 |
| simulation | CHW | 3 | Bryan Hudson | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 2.58 | 1.16 |
| simulation | CHW | 4 | Jordan Hicks | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 18.00 | 3.83 | 1.50 |
| simulation | STL | 1 | Kyle Leahy | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 97 | 0.00 | 3.41 | 1.33 |
| simulation | STL | 2 | Riley O'Brien | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0.00 | 3.97 | 1.25 |
| simulation | STL | 3 | George Soriano | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 4.50 | 1.39 |
| simulation | STL | 4 | Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0.00 | 4.19 | 1.34 |
| simulation | STL | 5 | Justin Bruihl | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 27.00 | 3.62 | 1.35 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | Sean Newcomb | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 88 |
| CHW | Grant Taylor | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 31 |
| CHW | Bryan Hudson | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| CHW | Jordan Hicks | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 |
| STL | Kyle Leahy | Starter | 5.0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 97 |
| STL | Justin Bruihl | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 26 |
| STL | Riley O'Brien | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 |
| STL | Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| STL | George Soriano | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260912_CIN@MIL
20260912_CIN@MIL.json • 2026-09-12
CIN 6 - MIL 10
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=9, sim=10). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=47; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=11, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Dane Myers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Tyler Stephenson: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Juan Brito: AB current=3 box=5, SO current=1 box=2; Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1; JJ Bleday: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=48; H: current=8, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=10; R: current=6, sim=10; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=6, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Sal Frelick: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=7; Jackson Chourio: AB current=4 box=6, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Bauers: AB current=4 box=6, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; William Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Garrett Mitchell: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting walks match MIL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting home runs match MIL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting hits match MIL pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CIN PA=49 matches MIL BF=49. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting walks match CIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting hits match CIN pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIL PA=49 matches CIN BF=49. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 10. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.748 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 125, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.576, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.748, 'published_confidence': 0.54, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 16 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 16.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.441/0.613. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 12 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 11, MIL 12. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 6 - MIL 10. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.54, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 8 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 8 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 20, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 20, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-09-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 8, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 8, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 20, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260911_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260906', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260906_MIL@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260905', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260905_MIL@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260904_MIL@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260702', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260702_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 10 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 10 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0567, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.126, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 2.0382, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_CIN@MIL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@MIL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 12.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 12.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0692, 'away_run_delta': -0.0692, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 20.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 9, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01208794515854878}, {'home_runs': 10, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.011868997278945009}, {'home_runs': 9, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.011614233708347143}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.011607652063304207}, {'home_runs': 9, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01148652360663459}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.008160488736207517, '1': 0.01360494118653776, '2': 0.02138605196358424, '3': 0.03169698956011475, '4': 0.04429542428174206, '5': 0.05836509073836732, '6': 0.07251050239885164, '7': 0.08493801618886568, '8': 0.09381164741394023, '9': 0.09769331842377992, '10': 0.09592380800329166, '11': 0.08880581626053316, '12': 0.07751930310818321, '13': 0.06380162779134757, '14': 0.049511616813534075, '15': 0.036227295033016374, '16': 0.024992986662574886, '17': 0.01625750352752913, '18': 0.009971098498792198, '19': 0.0057661456195935755, '20': 0.0031439936161368138, '21': 0.0016163341734763297}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.02485588462127266, '1': 0.04077745362542798, '2': 0.06107805364192307, '3': 0.08352653854334653, '4': 0.1042888761375214, '5': 0.11888462686840287, '6': 0.12373359154525766, '7': 0.11757737163566971, '8': 0.10200796516746648, '9': 0.08080135238007473, '10': 0.05843558326926079, '11': 0.03858427508850934, '12': 0.02326041803660356, '13': 0.012802621154014617, '14': 0.006433606306435078, '15': 0.002951781978813315}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 2.4916, 'recent_quality_edge': 1.196, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 2.0382} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 10 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 10 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0567, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.126, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 2.0382, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 174. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 189. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 174. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 189. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 12.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 12.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 6 - 10 MIL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 6 - 10 MIL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 10-6 (Extra Innings - 12). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 10-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 6-10. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-10. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-10, final 6-10 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 16. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: MIL wins 10-6 (Extra Innings - 12). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIL wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting walks match MIL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting home runs match MIL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting hits match MIL pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CIN PA=49 matches MIL BF=49. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting walks match CIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting hits match CIN pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIL PA=49 matches CIN BF=49. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 10. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.748 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 125, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.576, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.748, 'published_confidence': 0.54, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 16 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 16.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.441/0.613. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 12 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 11, MIL 12. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 6 - MIL 10. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.54, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 8 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 8 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 20, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 20, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-09-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 8, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 8, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 20, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260911_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260906', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260906_MIL@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260905', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260905_MIL@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260904_MIL@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260702', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260702_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 10 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 10 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0567, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.126, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 2.0382, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_CIN@MIL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@MIL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 12.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 12.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0692, 'away_run_delta': -0.0692, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 20.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 9, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01208794515854878}, {'home_runs': 10, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.011868997278945009}, {'home_runs': 9, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.011614233708347143}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.011607652063304207}, {'home_runs': 9, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01148652360663459}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.008160488736207517, '1': 0.01360494118653776, '2': 0.02138605196358424, '3': 0.03169698956011475, '4': 0.04429542428174206, '5': 0.05836509073836732, '6': 0.07251050239885164, '7': 0.08493801618886568, '8': 0.09381164741394023, '9': 0.09769331842377992, '10': 0.09592380800329166, '11': 0.08880581626053316, '12': 0.07751930310818321, '13': 0.06380162779134757, '14': 0.049511616813534075, '15': 0.036227295033016374, '16': 0.024992986662574886, '17': 0.01625750352752913, '18': 0.009971098498792198, '19': 0.0057661456195935755, '20': 0.0031439936161368138, '21': 0.0016163341734763297}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.02485588462127266, '1': 0.04077745362542798, '2': 0.06107805364192307, '3': 0.08352653854334653, '4': 0.1042888761375214, '5': 0.11888462686840287, '6': 0.12373359154525766, '7': 0.11757737163566971, '8': 0.10200796516746648, '9': 0.08080135238007473, '10': 0.05843558326926079, '11': 0.03858427508850934, '12': 0.02326041803660356, '13': 0.012802621154014617, '14': 0.006433606306435078, '15': 0.002951781978813315}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 2.4916, 'recent_quality_edge': 1.196, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 2.0382} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 10 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 10 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0567, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.126, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 2.0382, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 10, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 174. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 189. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 174. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 189. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 12.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 12.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 6 - 10 MIL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 6 - 10 MIL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 10-6 (Extra Innings - 12). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 10-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 6-10. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-10. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-10, final 6-10 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 16. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: MIL wins 10-6 (Extra Innings - 12). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIL wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=9, sim=10). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=47; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=11, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Dane Myers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Tyler Stephenson: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Juan Brito: AB current=3 box=5, SO current=1 box=2; Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1; JJ Bleday: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=48; H: current=8, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=10; R: current=6, sim=10; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=6, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Sal Frelick: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=7; Jackson Chourio: AB current=4 box=6, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Bauers: AB current=4 box=6, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; William Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Garrett Mitchell: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.9974696840822146 | 5.551311165286171 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 6 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 6 | 9 | 0.540 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 6 | 10 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 6 | 10 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 6 | 10 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 6 | 10 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CIN | batting | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CIN | pitching | 12 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 8.0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | MIL | batting | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | MIL | pitching | 11 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | CIN | batting | 47 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | CIN | pitching | 12 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 12.0 | 10 | 49 | 174 | |||||||||
| simulation | MIL | batting | 48 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | MIL | pitching | 11 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 12.0 | 6 | 49 | 189 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CIN | 1B | Sal Stewart | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | CF | Dane Myers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | SS | Elly De La Cruz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | C | Tyler Stephenson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | 3B | Juan Brito | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CIN | RF | Héctor Rodríguez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CIN | DH | Eugenio Suárez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CIN | LF | JJ Bleday | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | 2B | Matt McLain | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIL | DH | Christian Yelich | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | RF | Sal Frelick | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | LF | Jackson Chourio | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | 1B | Jake Bauers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | C | William Contreras | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | 2B | Brice Turang | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | SS | Cooper Pratt | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIL | CF | Garrett Mitchell | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIL | 3B | David Hamilton | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | CIN | 1 | CF | Dane Myers | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CIN | 2 | SS | Elly De La Cruz | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | CIN | 3 | 1B | Sal Stewart | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | CIN | 4 | C | Tyler Stephenson | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | CIN | 5 | DH | Eugenio Suárez | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CIN | 6 | LF | JJ Bleday | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CIN | 7 | 2B | Matt McLain | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | CIN | 8 | 3B | Juan Brito | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | CIN | 9 | RF | Héctor Rodríguez | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | MIL | 1 | RF | Sal Frelick | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | MIL | 2 | 1B | Jake Bauers | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.167 |
| simulation | MIL | 3 | LF | Jackson Chourio | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.167 |
| simulation | MIL | 4 | DH | Christian Yelich | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.167 |
| simulation | MIL | 5 | C | William Contreras | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | MIL | 6 | 2B | Brice Turang | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | MIL | 7 | CF | Garrett Mitchell | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 |
| simulation | MIL | 8 | SS | Cooper Pratt | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | MIL | 9 | 3B | David Hamilton | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CIN | 1 | Brady Singer | Starter | 5.0 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.80 | 5.03 | 1.47 |
| current | CIN | 2 | Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.47 | 1.28 |
| current | CIN | 3 | Emilio Pagán | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.93 | 1.06 |
| current | CIN | 5 | Luis Mey | Setup Man | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.59 | 1.74 | |
| current | CIN | 7 | Graham Ashcraft | Reliever | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||
| current | MIL | 1 | Shane Drohan | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.60 | 4.09 | 1.31 |
| current | MIL | 2 | Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.25 | 1.37 |
| current | MIL | 3 | Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.06 | 0.99 |
| current | MIL | 4 | Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 2.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 4.12 | 1.36 |
| current | MIL | 5 | Trevor Megill | Closer | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.94 | 0.86 | |
| current | MIL | 6 | JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.35 | 1.32 | |
| simulation | CIN | 1 | Brady Singer | Starter | 5.0 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 91 | 12.60 | 5.03 | 1.47 |
| simulation | CIN | 2 | Emilio Pagán | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 3.93 | 1.06 |
| simulation | CIN | 3 | Luis Mey | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0.00 | 6.59 | 1.74 |
| simulation | CIN | 4 | Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 2.47 | 1.28 |
| simulation | CIN | 5 | Graham Ashcraft | Reliever | 3.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 9.00 | 2.17 | 1.14 |
| simulation | MIL | 1 | Shane Drohan | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 79 | 3.60 | 4.09 | 1.31 |
| simulation | MIL | 2 | Trevor Megill | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 1.94 | 0.86 |
| simulation | MIL | 3 | Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 2.06 | 0.99 |
| simulation | MIL | 4 | Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 9.00 | 3.25 | 1.37 |
| simulation | MIL | 5 | Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 2.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 11.57 | 4.12 | 1.36 |
| simulation | MIL | 6 | JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 3.35 | 1.32 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Brady Singer | Starter | 5.0 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 91 |
| CIN | Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21 |
| CIN | Emilio Pagán | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| CIN | Luis Mey | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| CIN | Graham Ashcraft | Reliever | 3.0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| MIL | Shane Drohan | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 79 |
| MIL | Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 |
| MIL | Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| MIL | Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 2.1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 37 |
| MIL | Trevor Megill | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| MIL | JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260912_CLE@MIN
20260912_CLE@MIN.json • 2026-09-12
CLE 6 - MIN 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=10; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=1; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Angel Genao: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Nathaniel Lowe: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Travis Bazzana: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Patrick Bailey: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ryan Jeffers: BB current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Kaelen Culpepper: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0; Walker Jenkins: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting walks match MIN pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting home runs match MIN pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting hits match MIN pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CLE PA=41 matches MIN BF=41. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting walks match CLE pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting hits match CLE pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIN PA=37 matches CLE BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.546 -> 0.550 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.54569, 'sample_size': 366, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5546, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.550145, 'published_confidence': 0.541168, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CLE current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.541. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.541. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.459. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.517/0.701. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 10, MIN 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 6 - MIN 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-07-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505263, 'artifact': '20260911_CLE@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260723', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260723_MIN@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260722', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260722_MIN@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260721', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260721_MIN@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260708', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.63, 'artifact': '20260708_CLE@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0668, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.066, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1794, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_CLE@MIN. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@MIN. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0519, 'away_run_delta': 0.0519, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01939845187970958}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01903002947097228}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01861877171910503}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01826515727775584}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.018087341242166415}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04008033394786587, '1': 0.0649421470682584, '2': 0.09371411951899622, '3': 0.1204388195910175, '4': 0.137851350921735, '5': 0.14052016059603142, '6': 0.12757022553428932, '7': 0.10314378967689793, '8': 0.07427111087348773, '9': 0.04762991760512913, '10': 0.027203376709743144, '11': 0.013837220956150547, '12': 0.006268418895623424, '13': 0.0025290081047744735}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03705649747630836, '1': 0.06018855956878148, '2': 0.08748934144213327, '3': 0.11381197524749294, '4': 0.13249893566966833, '5': 0.1380474644878639, '6': 0.12871705501507402, '7': 0.10740768862732722, '8': 0.08020958375966401, '9': 0.05360542827349914, '10': 0.03206143033156638, '11': 0.017161238704761075, '12': 0.008220646755249715, '13': 0.003524154640610289}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3492, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.136, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1794} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0668, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.066, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1794, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 6 - 4 MIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 6 - 4 MIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.541. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 10. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CLE wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting walks match MIN pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting home runs match MIN pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting hits match MIN pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CLE PA=41 matches MIN BF=41. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting walks match CLE pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting hits match CLE pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIN PA=37 matches CLE BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.546 -> 0.550 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.54569, 'sample_size': 366, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5546, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.550145, 'published_confidence': 0.541168, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CLE current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.541. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.541. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.459. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.517/0.701. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 10, MIN 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 6 - MIN 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-07-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505263, 'artifact': '20260911_CLE@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260723', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260723_MIN@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260722', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260722_MIN@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260721', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260721_MIN@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260708', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.63, 'artifact': '20260708_CLE@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0668, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.066, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1794, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_CLE@MIN. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@MIN. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0519, 'away_run_delta': 0.0519, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01939845187970958}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01903002947097228}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01861877171910503}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01826515727775584}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.018087341242166415}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04008033394786587, '1': 0.0649421470682584, '2': 0.09371411951899622, '3': 0.1204388195910175, '4': 0.137851350921735, '5': 0.14052016059603142, '6': 0.12757022553428932, '7': 0.10314378967689793, '8': 0.07427111087348773, '9': 0.04762991760512913, '10': 0.027203376709743144, '11': 0.013837220956150547, '12': 0.006268418895623424, '13': 0.0025290081047744735}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03705649747630836, '1': 0.06018855956878148, '2': 0.08748934144213327, '3': 0.11381197524749294, '4': 0.13249893566966833, '5': 0.1380474644878639, '6': 0.12871705501507402, '7': 0.10740768862732722, '8': 0.08020958375966401, '9': 0.05360542827349914, '10': 0.03206143033156638, '11': 0.017161238704761075, '12': 0.008220646755249715, '13': 0.003524154640610289}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3492, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.136, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1794} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0668, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.066, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1794, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 6 - 4 MIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 6 - 4 MIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.541. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 10. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CLE wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=10; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=1; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Angel Genao: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Nathaniel Lowe: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Travis Bazzana: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Patrick Bailey: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ryan Jeffers: BB current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Kaelen Culpepper: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0; Walker Jenkins: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 5.288544170994121 | 3.0127152108345348 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 3 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 6 | 5 | 0.541 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 6 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 6 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 6 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 6 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| MIN | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CLE | batting | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CLE | pitching | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | MIN | batting | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | MIN | pitching | 10 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | CLE | batting | 36 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | CLE | pitching | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 9.0 | 4 | 37 | 170 | |||||||||
| simulation | MIN | batting | 34 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | MIN | pitching | 10 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 9.0 | 6 | 41 | 164 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CLE | DH | José Ramírez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | CF | Steven Kwan | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | LF | Jo Adell | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | 3B | Angel Genao | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | RF | Chase DeLauter | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | 1B | Nathaniel Lowe | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | 2B | Travis Bazzana | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CLE | C | Patrick Bailey | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | CLE | SS | Brayan Rocchio | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIN | RF | Luke Keaschall | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | 2B | Kody Clemens | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | C | Ryan Jeffers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | 3B | Brooks Lee | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | DH | Josh Bell | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | SS | Kaelen Culpepper | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIN | 1B | Royce Lewis | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | CF | Walker Jenkins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIN | LF | Trevor Larnach | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | CLE | 1 | CF | Steven Kwan | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | CLE | 2 | RF | Chase DeLauter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CLE | 3 | DH | José Ramírez | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CLE | 4 | LF | Jo Adell | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CLE | 5 | 1B | Nathaniel Lowe | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CLE | 6 | 3B | Angel Genao | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | CLE | 7 | 2B | Travis Bazzana | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | CLE | 8 | C | Patrick Bailey | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | CLE | 9 | SS | Brayan Rocchio | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | MIN | 1 | RF | Luke Keaschall | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | MIN | 2 | 3B | Brooks Lee | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | MIN | 3 | 2B | Kody Clemens | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIN | 4 | C | Ryan Jeffers | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIN | 5 | DH | Josh Bell | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIN | 6 | 1B | Royce Lewis | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIN | 7 | LF | Trevor Larnach | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIN | 8 | SS | Kaelen Culpepper | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIN | 9 | CF | Walker Jenkins | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CLE | 1 | Daniel Espino | Starter | 3.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.70 | 1.30 |
| current | CLE | 2 | Cade Smith | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.18 | 1.05 |
| current | CLE | 4 | Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.72 | 1.05 |
| current | CLE | 5 | Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 2.55 | 1.13 |
| current | CLE | 6 | Tim Herrin | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.96 | 1.22 |
| current | MIN | 1 | Connor Prielipp | Starter | 5.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.20 | 5.25 | 1.36 |
| current | MIN | 2 | A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.06 | 0.99 |
| current | MIN | 3 | Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.71 | 1.35 |
| current | MIN | 4 | Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 3.92 | 1.39 |
| current | MIN | 5 | Andrew Morris | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.07 | 1.37 |
| current | MIN | 6 | Kody Funderburk | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.97 | 1.36 |
| simulation | CLE | 1 | Daniel Espino | Starter | 3.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 73 | 9.00 | 2.70 | 1.30 |
| simulation | CLE | 2 | Cade Smith | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.18 | 1.05 |
| simulation | CLE | 3 | Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 6.75 | 2.55 | 1.13 |
| simulation | CLE | 4 | Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 0.00 | 2.72 | 1.05 |
| simulation | CLE | 5 | Tim Herrin | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0.00 | 2.96 | 1.22 |
| simulation | MIN | 1 | Connor Prielipp | Starter | 5.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 104 | 7.20 | 5.25 | 1.36 |
| simulation | MIN | 2 | Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 18.00 | 3.92 | 1.39 |
| simulation | MIN | 3 | Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.71 | 1.35 |
| simulation | MIN | 4 | A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.06 | 0.99 |
| simulation | MIN | 5 | Andrew Morris | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0.00 | 4.07 | 1.37 |
| simulation | MIN | 6 | Kody Funderburk | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.00 | 3.97 | 1.36 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Daniel Espino | Starter | 3.0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 73 |
| CLE | Cade Smith | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| CLE | Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 36 |
| CLE | Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 24 |
| CLE | Tim Herrin | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 20 |
| MIN | Connor Prielipp | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 104 |
| MIN | A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| MIN | Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| MIN | Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 |
| MIN | Andrew Morris | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| MIN | Kody Funderburk | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260912_COL@DET
20260912_COL@DET.json • 2026-09-12
COL 4 - DET 7
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cole Carrigg: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; TJ Rumfield: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Jordan Beck: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Hunter Goodman: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Karros: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=11; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=3, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Hao-Yu Lee: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Callahan: HBP current=0 box=1; Eduardo Valencia: SO current=1 box=2; Max Clark: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; John Peck: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | COL | BATTING_REALISM | current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | DET | BATTING_REALISM | current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | COL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | DET | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:COL batting walks match DET pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:COL batting home runs match DET pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:COL batting hits match DET pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:COL batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:COL PA=35 matches DET BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:DET batting walks match COL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:DET batting home runs match COL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:DET batting hits match COL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:DET batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:DET PA=35 matches COL BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.887 -> 0.717 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.886528, 'sample_size': 199, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5477, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.717114, 'published_confidence': 0.5989, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | COL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | COL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | DET current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | DET current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.401. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.599. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.599. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.558/0.749. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: COL 3, DET 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: COL 4 - DET 7. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for DET. | {'winner_confidence': 0.5989, 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.541169, 'artifact': '20260911_COL@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_COL@DET. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@DET. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0333, 'away_run_delta': -0.0333, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019053025008002624}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019038475939250676}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019026391609159653}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019011862877921077}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017553430978819274}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02045109470955263, '1': 0.03367949881194017, '2': 0.05102761292945757, '3': 0.07112715818365478, '4': 0.0912128937891921, '5': 0.10761370491391122, '6': 0.11680717082618355, '7': 0.11664389113873098, '8': 0.10716304983427115, '9': 0.09057716082469351, '10': 0.07043409100323927, '11': 0.0503892271189493, '12': 0.03316523297024711, '13': 0.020082555687367314, '14': 0.011187820239633472, '15': 0.0057340642096122205, '16': 0.002703772809363638}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06446160093542892, '1': 0.10246274860027468, '2': 0.13958964331555127, '3': 0.1629906435075046, '4': 0.16311519980528189, '5': 0.13990990819154075, '6': 0.10285485397223766, '7': 0.06480722018656629, '8': 0.034998084552489206, '9': 0.016198971443320435, '10': 0.006426179978961621, '11': 0.002184945510842688}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.6088, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.464, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.2081} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'COL 4 - 7 DET', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'COL 4 - 7 DET', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0571, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.814, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'DET', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2081, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | current:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 4 - 7 DET. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 4 - 7 DET. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=DET, simulation=DET, published=DET. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.599. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): DET wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 4-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-7, final 4-7 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: DET wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | COL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | DET wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | COL | BATTING_REALISM | current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | DET | BATTING_REALISM | current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | COL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | DET | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:COL batting walks match DET pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:COL batting home runs match DET pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:COL batting hits match DET pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:COL batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:COL PA=35 matches DET BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:DET batting walks match COL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:DET batting home runs match COL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:DET batting hits match COL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:DET batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:DET PA=35 matches COL BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.887 -> 0.717 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.886528, 'sample_size': 199, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5477, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.717114, 'published_confidence': 0.5989, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | COL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | COL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | DET current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | DET current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.401. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.599. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.599. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.558/0.749. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: COL 3, DET 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: COL 4 - DET 7. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for DET. | {'winner_confidence': 0.5989, 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.541169, 'artifact': '20260911_COL@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_COL@DET. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@DET. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0333, 'away_run_delta': -0.0333, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019053025008002624}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019038475939250676}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019026391609159653}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019011862877921077}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017553430978819274}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02045109470955263, '1': 0.03367949881194017, '2': 0.05102761292945757, '3': 0.07112715818365478, '4': 0.0912128937891921, '5': 0.10761370491391122, '6': 0.11680717082618355, '7': 0.11664389113873098, '8': 0.10716304983427115, '9': 0.09057716082469351, '10': 0.07043409100323927, '11': 0.0503892271189493, '12': 0.03316523297024711, '13': 0.020082555687367314, '14': 0.011187820239633472, '15': 0.0057340642096122205, '16': 0.002703772809363638}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06446160093542892, '1': 0.10246274860027468, '2': 0.13958964331555127, '3': 0.1629906435075046, '4': 0.16311519980528189, '5': 0.13990990819154075, '6': 0.10285485397223766, '7': 0.06480722018656629, '8': 0.034998084552489206, '9': 0.016198971443320435, '10': 0.006426179978961621, '11': 0.002184945510842688}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.6088, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.464, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.2081} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'COL 4 - 7 DET', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'COL 4 - 7 DET', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0571, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.814, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'DET', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2081, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | current:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 4 - 7 DET. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 4 - 7 DET. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=DET, simulation=DET, published=DET. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.599. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): DET wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 4-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-7, final 4-7 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: DET wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | COL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | DET wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cole Carrigg: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; TJ Rumfield: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Jordan Beck: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Hunter Goodman: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Karros: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=11; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=3, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Hao-Yu Lee: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Callahan: HBP current=0 box=1; Eduardo Valencia: SO current=1 box=2; Max Clark: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; John Peck: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.8018027724041086 | 5.884321014126111 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 6 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 6 | 0.599 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 7 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 7 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 7 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 7 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | COL | batting | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | COL | pitching | 7 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 8.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | DET | batting | 31 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | DET | pitching | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | COL | batting | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | COL | pitching | 7 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 8.0 | 7 | 35 | 160 | |||||||||
| simulation | DET | batting | 30 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | DET | pitching | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 9.0 | 4 | 35 | 164 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | COL | 2B | Connor Norby | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | CF | Cole Carrigg | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | 1B | TJ Rumfield | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | RF | Jordan Beck | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | COL | LF | Jake McCarthy | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | DH | Adael Amador | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | COL | C | Hunter Goodman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | 3B | Kyle Karros | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | COL | SS | Ezequiel Tovar | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | DET | 3B | Kevin McGonigle | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | DH | Colt Keith | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | DET | 2B | Hao-Yu Lee | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | LF | Riley Greene | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | RF | Brett Callahan | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | DET | C | Eduardo Valencia | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | CF | Max Clark | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | DET | SS | John Peck | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | DET | 1B | Spencer Torkelson | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | COL | 1 | LF | Jake McCarthy | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | COL | 2 | 2B | Connor Norby | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | COL | 3 | C | Hunter Goodman | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | COL | 4 | 1B | TJ Rumfield | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | COL | 5 | CF | Cole Carrigg | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | COL | 6 | 3B | Kyle Karros | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | COL | 7 | RF | Jordan Beck | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | COL | 8 | DH | Adael Amador | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | COL | 9 | SS | Ezequiel Tovar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 1 | 3B | Kevin McGonigle | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | DET | 2 | 2B | Hao-Yu Lee | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | DET | 3 | DH | Colt Keith | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 4 | LF | Riley Greene | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 5 | C | Eduardo Valencia | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | DET | 6 | CF | Max Clark | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 7 | 1B | Spencer Torkelson | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | DET | 8 | RF | Brett Callahan | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 9 | SS | John Peck | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | COL | 1 | Tanner Gordon | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 1.43 |
| current | COL | 3 | Jordan Romano | Closer | 1.2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16.20 | 3.90 | 1.23 |
| current | COL | 4 | Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.51 | 1.12 |
| current | DET | 1 | Andrew Sears | Starter | 4.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 4.38 | 1.22 |
| current | DET | 2 | Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.74 | 1.23 |
| current | DET | 3 | Kenley Jansen | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.15 | 1.10 |
| current | DET | 4 | Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.19 | 1.45 |
| current | DET | 5 | Drew Sommers | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 2.91 | 1.09 |
| simulation | COL | 1 | Tanner Gordon | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 22 | 94 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 1.43 |
| simulation | COL | 2 | Jordan Romano | Closer | 1.2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 21.60 | 3.90 | 1.23 |
| simulation | COL | 3 | Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 0.00 | 2.51 | 1.12 |
| simulation | DET | 1 | Andrew Sears | Starter | 4.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 19 | 88 | 6.75 | 4.38 | 1.22 |
| simulation | DET | 2 | Kenley Jansen | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.15 | 1.10 |
| simulation | DET | 3 | Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.74 | 1.23 |
| simulation | DET | 4 | Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.19 | 1.45 |
| simulation | DET | 5 | Drew Sommers | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 5.40 | 2.91 | 1.09 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | Tanner Gordon | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 94 |
| COL | Jordan Romano | Closer | 1.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 47 |
| COL | Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| DET | Andrew Sears | Starter | 4.0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 88 |
| DET | Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| DET | Kenley Jansen | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| DET | Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| DET | Drew Sommers | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 33 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260912_HOU@TB
20260912_HOU@TB.json • 2026-09-12
HOU 4 - TB 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: 2B current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nelson Velázquez: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Daulton Varsho: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Yainer Diaz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=6, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=3; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2; Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Richie Palacios: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cedric Mullins: SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TB | BATTING_REALISM | current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TB | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting walks match TB pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting home runs match TB pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting hits match TB pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:HOU PA=38 matches TB BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TB batting walks match HOU pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TB batting home runs match HOU pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TB batting hits match HOU pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TB batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TB PA=33 matches HOU BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.467 -> 0.514 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.466795, 'sample_size': 546, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5604, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.513598, 'published_confidence': 0.531548, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | HOU current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TB current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TB current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.468. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.532. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.532. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.517/0.701. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 6, TB 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 4 - TB 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260911_HOU@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260704', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260704_TB@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0225, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.24, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TB', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6145, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_HOU@TB. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@TB. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': -0.0, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024123186067378302}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022914088084304486}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02266017364824277}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022459521435884765}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022083852862229615}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.051603676197253666, '1': 0.08285745977708037, '2': 0.11635283948860817, '3': 0.1428949090671041, '4': 0.15347969409531906, '5': 0.14417152485434875, '6': 0.11844110684003867, '7': 0.08509809165912094, '8': 0.05347263471778216, '9': 0.02938581525914217, '10': 0.014123368903943589, '11': 0.005936538116696451, '12': 0.00218234102356163}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.055322771278611425, '1': 0.08857511930558833, '2': 0.12331833565939342, '3': 0.1492971967358341, '4': 0.15717509869674695, '5': 0.14388778263080435, '6': 0.11454395859199036, '7': 0.0792918491369276, '8': 0.04773017138042922, '9': 0.02498420480653115, '10': 0.011372243725866645, '11': 0.004501268051276489}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.8162, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.24, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6145} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0225, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.24, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TB', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6145, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 174. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 174. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | current:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 4 - 5 TB. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 4 - 5 TB. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.532. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | HOU wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TB wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TB | BATTING_REALISM | current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TB | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting walks match TB pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting home runs match TB pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting hits match TB pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:HOU PA=38 matches TB BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TB batting walks match HOU pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TB batting home runs match HOU pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TB batting hits match HOU pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TB batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TB PA=33 matches HOU BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.467 -> 0.514 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.466795, 'sample_size': 546, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5604, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.513598, 'published_confidence': 0.531548, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | HOU current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TB current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TB current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.468. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.532. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.532. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.517/0.701. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 6, TB 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 4 - TB 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260911_HOU@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260704', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260704_TB@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0225, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.24, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TB', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6145, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_HOU@TB. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@TB. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': -0.0, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024123186067378302}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022914088084304486}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02266017364824277}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022459521435884765}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022083852862229615}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.051603676197253666, '1': 0.08285745977708037, '2': 0.11635283948860817, '3': 0.1428949090671041, '4': 0.15347969409531906, '5': 0.14417152485434875, '6': 0.11844110684003867, '7': 0.08509809165912094, '8': 0.05347263471778216, '9': 0.02938581525914217, '10': 0.014123368903943589, '11': 0.005936538116696451, '12': 0.00218234102356163}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.055322771278611425, '1': 0.08857511930558833, '2': 0.12331833565939342, '3': 0.1492971967358341, '4': 0.15717509869674695, '5': 0.14388778263080435, '6': 0.11454395859199036, '7': 0.0792918491369276, '8': 0.04773017138042922, '9': 0.02498420480653115, '10': 0.011372243725866645, '11': 0.004501268051276489}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.8162, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.24, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6145} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0225, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.24, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TB', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6145, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 174. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 174. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | current:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 4 - 5 TB. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 4 - 5 TB. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.532. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | HOU wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TB wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: 2B current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nelson Velázquez: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Daulton Varsho: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Yainer Diaz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=6, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=3; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2; Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Richie Palacios: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cedric Mullins: SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.843805920249509 | 4.709822669071942 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.532 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | HOU | batting | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | HOU | pitching | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | TB | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | TB | pitching | 6 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | HOU | batting | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | HOU | pitching | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8.0 | 5 | 33 | 146 | |||||||||
| simulation | TB | batting | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | TB | pitching | 6 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 38 | 174 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | HOU | 2B | Jose Altuve | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | SS | Jeremy Peña | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | LF | Nelson Velázquez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | HOU | 3B | Isaac Paredes | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | DH | Yordan Alvarez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | 1B | Christian Walker | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | CF | Daulton Varsho | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | C | Yainer Diaz | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | HOU | RF | Cam Smith | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | TB | 3B | Junior Caminero | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | C | Liam Hicks | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | 1B | Jonathan Aranda | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | DH | Yandy Díaz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | LF | Chandler Simpson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | 2B | Richie Palacios | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TB | RF | Victor Mesa Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | CF | Cedric Mullins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | TB | SS | Jorge Mateo | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | HOU | 1 | SS | Jeremy Peña | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | HOU | 2 | DH | Yordan Alvarez | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | HOU | 3 | 3B | Isaac Paredes | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | HOU | 4 | 2B | Jose Altuve | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | HOU | 5 | 1B | Christian Walker | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | HOU | 6 | LF | Nelson Velázquez | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | HOU | 7 | CF | Daulton Varsho | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | HOU | 8 | RF | Cam Smith | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | HOU | 9 | C | Yainer Diaz | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 1 | DH | Yandy Díaz | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 2 | 1B | Jonathan Aranda | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | TB | 3 | 3B | Junior Caminero | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | TB | 4 | C | Liam Hicks | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 5 | LF | Chandler Simpson | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 6 | RF | Victor Mesa Jr. | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 7 | CF | Cedric Mullins | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 8 | 2B | Richie Palacios | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | TB | 9 | SS | Jorge Mateo | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | HOU | 1 | Peter Lambert | Starter | 5.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.69 | 3.67 | 1.23 |
| current | HOU | 3 | Josh Hader | Closer | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10.80 | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| current | HOU | 4 | Bryan Abreu | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 3.86 | 1.34 |
| current | TB | 1 | Ian Seymour | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.60 | 3.95 | 1.12 |
| current | TB | 2 | Tyler Wells | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 2.41 | 0.90 |
| current | TB | 3 | Bryan Baker | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.42 | 0.86 |
| current | TB | 4 | Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.51 | 0.90 |
| current | TB | 5 | Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.27 | 0.84 |
| simulation | HOU | 1 | Peter Lambert | Starter | 5.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 85 | 1.69 | 3.67 | 1.23 |
| simulation | HOU | 2 | Josh Hader | Closer | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 10.80 | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| simulation | HOU | 3 | Bryan Abreu | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 18.00 | 3.86 | 1.34 |
| simulation | TB | 1 | Ian Seymour | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 93 | 3.60 | 3.95 | 1.12 |
| simulation | TB | 2 | Bryan Baker | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 0.00 | 1.42 | 0.86 |
| simulation | TB | 3 | Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.51 | 0.90 |
| simulation | TB | 4 | Tyler Wells | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 13.50 | 2.41 | 0.90 |
| simulation | TB | 5 | Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 2.27 | 0.84 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Peter Lambert | Starter | 5.1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 85 |
| HOU | Josh Hader | Closer | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 33 |
| HOU | Bryan Abreu | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 28 |
| TB | Ian Seymour | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 93 |
| TB | Tyler Wells | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 35 |
| TB | Bryan Baker | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 |
| TB | Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| TB | Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260912_KC@BOS
20260912_KC@BOS.json • 2026-09-12
KC 4 - BOS 6
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Trevor Story: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Wilyer Abreu: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nate Eaton: SO current=1 box=0; Nick Sogard: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=11). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Tyler Tolbert: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | KC | BATTING_REALISM | current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | KC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting walks match KC pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting home runs match KC pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting hits match KC pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BOS PA=33 matches KC BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:KC batting walks match BOS pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:KC batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:KC batting hits match BOS pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:KC batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:KC PA=34 matches BOS BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.491 -> 0.522 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.491185, 'sample_size': 378, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5529, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.522043, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BOS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | KC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | KC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.517/0.701. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: KC 6, BOS 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: KC 4 - BOS 6. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-05-20', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.652878, 'artifact': '20260911_KC@BOS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BOS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BOS', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 6 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 6 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0408, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.251, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8567, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_KC@BOS. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@BOS. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.05, 'away_run_delta': -0.05, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024701522779513485}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02363738376454623}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023339157514892343}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02276823465135078}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0223995674970163}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05427365033900339, '1': 0.08696136459770575, '2': 0.12134747368634027, '3': 0.14746950139714257, '4': 0.15607766671614648, '5': 0.14386209997449137, '6': 0.11548327895029342, '7': 0.08073445108549143, '8': 0.049154781134434444, '9': 0.026063918923964112, '10': 0.012035960250416143, '11': 0.004840484714098838, '12': 0.001695368230471866}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.056654601429077224, '1': 0.09061179942969617, '2': 0.12575518667495178, '3': 0.15144629120792016, '4': 0.15826430071150002, '5': 0.1435155199863007, '6': 0.11292922803788166, '7': 0.07710906459248738, '8': 0.04568736330536201, '9': 0.023489747039919618, '10': 0.010479780097341964, '11': 0.004057117487561459}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.277, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.076, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.8567} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 6 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 6 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0408, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.251, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8567, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 4 - 6 BOS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 4 - 6 BOS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BOS wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 10. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: BOS wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BOS wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | KC | BATTING_REALISM | current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | KC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting walks match KC pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting home runs match KC pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting hits match KC pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BOS PA=33 matches KC BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:KC batting walks match BOS pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:KC batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:KC batting hits match BOS pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:KC batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:KC PA=34 matches BOS BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.491 -> 0.522 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.491185, 'sample_size': 378, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5529, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.522043, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BOS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | KC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | KC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.517/0.701. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: KC 6, BOS 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: KC 4 - BOS 6. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-05-20', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.652878, 'artifact': '20260911_KC@BOS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BOS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BOS', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 6 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 6 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0408, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.251, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8567, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_KC@BOS. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@BOS. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.05, 'away_run_delta': -0.05, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024701522779513485}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02363738376454623}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023339157514892343}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02276823465135078}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0223995674970163}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05427365033900339, '1': 0.08696136459770575, '2': 0.12134747368634027, '3': 0.14746950139714257, '4': 0.15607766671614648, '5': 0.14386209997449137, '6': 0.11548327895029342, '7': 0.08073445108549143, '8': 0.049154781134434444, '9': 0.026063918923964112, '10': 0.012035960250416143, '11': 0.004840484714098838, '12': 0.001695368230471866}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.056654601429077224, '1': 0.09061179942969617, '2': 0.12575518667495178, '3': 0.15144629120792016, '4': 0.15826430071150002, '5': 0.1435155199863007, '6': 0.11292922803788166, '7': 0.07710906459248738, '8': 0.04568736330536201, '9': 0.023489747039919618, '10': 0.010479780097341964, '11': 0.004057117487561459}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.277, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.076, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.8567} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 6 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 6 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0408, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.251, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8567, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 4 - 6 BOS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 4 - 6 BOS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BOS wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 10. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: BOS wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BOS wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Trevor Story: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Wilyer Abreu: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nate Eaton: SO current=1 box=0; Nick Sogard: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=11). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Tyler Tolbert: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.8132730421480967 | 5.264775771217941 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.530 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 6 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 6 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 6 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 6 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| BOS | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | KC | batting | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | KC | pitching | 7 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 8.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | BOS | batting | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | BOS | pitching | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | KC | batting | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | KC | pitching | 7 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 8.0 | 6 | 33 | 131 | |||||||||
| simulation | BOS | batting | 31 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | BOS | pitching | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 9.0 | 4 | 34 | 142 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | KC | DH | Carter Jensen | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | C | Salvador Perez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | 3B | Nick Loftin | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | 2B | Isaac Collins | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | KC | LF | Tyler Tolbert | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | KC | 1B | Vinnie Pasquantino | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | RF | Jac Caglianone | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | SS | Bobby Witt Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | CF | Kyle Isbel | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | BOS | DH | Roman Anthony | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | 1B | Mickey Gasper | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | BOS | C | Adley Rutschman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | SS | Trevor Story | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | RF | Wilyer Abreu | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | CF | Nate Eaton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | BOS | 2B | Nick Sogard | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | LF | Jarren Duran | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | BOS | 3B | Caleb Durbin | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | KC | 1 | DH | Carter Jensen | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | KC | 2 | SS | Bobby Witt Jr. | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | KC | 3 | RF | Jac Caglianone | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | KC | 4 | C | Salvador Perez | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | KC | 5 | 3B | Nick Loftin | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | KC | 6 | 1B | Vinnie Pasquantino | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | KC | 7 | 2B | Isaac Collins | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | KC | 8 | LF | Tyler Tolbert | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | KC | 9 | CF | Kyle Isbel | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 1 | DH | Roman Anthony | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BOS | 2 | 1B | Mickey Gasper | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BOS | 3 | C | Adley Rutschman | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | BOS | 4 | RF | Wilyer Abreu | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BOS | 5 | SS | Trevor Story | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 6 | 2B | Nick Sogard | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | BOS | 7 | 3B | Caleb Durbin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 8 | LF | Jarren Duran | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | BOS | 9 | CF | Nate Eaton | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | KC | 1 | Randy Dobnak | Starter | 6.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 2.54 | 1.32 |
| current | KC | 2 | Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.98 | 1.12 |
| current | KC | 3 | Steven Cruz | Closer | 0.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 40.50 | 4.04 | 1.24 |
| current | BOS | 1 | Ranger Suarez | Starter | 5.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.06 | 3.44 | 1.22 |
| current | BOS | 2 | Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.48 | 1.05 |
| current | BOS | 3 | Erik Miller | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 1.91 | 1.21 |
| current | BOS | 4 | Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.88 | 0.83 |
| simulation | KC | 1 | Randy Dobnak | Starter | 6.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 23 | 93 | 4.50 | 2.54 | 1.32 |
| simulation | KC | 2 | Steven Cruz | Closer | 0.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 40.50 | 4.04 | 1.24 |
| simulation | KC | 3 | Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0.00 | 1.98 | 1.12 |
| simulation | BOS | 1 | Ranger Suarez | Starter | 5.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 22 | 92 | 5.06 | 3.44 | 1.22 |
| simulation | BOS | 2 | Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 1.48 | 1.05 |
| simulation | BOS | 3 | Erik Miller | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 1.91 | 1.21 |
| simulation | BOS | 4 | Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 1.88 | 0.83 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Randy Dobnak | Starter | 6.0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 93 |
| KC | Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 |
| KC | Steven Cruz | Closer | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| BOS | Ranger Suarez | Starter | 5.1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 92 |
| BOS | Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21 |
| BOS | Erik Miller | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| BOS | Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260912_LAA@WAS
20260912_LAA@WAS.json • 2026-09-12
LAA 4 - WAS 3
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Moore: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jose Siri: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Zach Neto: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Wade Meckler: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Denzer Guzman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=2; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brady House: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Abimelec Ortiz: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: BB current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Keibert Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting walks match WAS pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting hits match WAS pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAA PA=34 matches WAS BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting walks match LAA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting hits match LAA pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:WAS PA=35 matches LAA BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.528 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 430, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5465, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5283, 'published_confidence': 0.505648, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | WAS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.506. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.506. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.494. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.682/0.893. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 5, WAS 6. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 4 - WAS 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'WAS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'WAS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.575673, 'artifact': '20260911_LAA@WAS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 WAS', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 WAS', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0347, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.022, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2749, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_LAA@WAS. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@WAS. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0083, 'away_run_delta': -0.0083, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029331098996152067}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02858584371133114}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028090710483107573}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.027376971443030796}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02592148258101339}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07244615760448497, '1': 0.11443320856548671, '2': 0.15298705472630406, '3': 0.17311040883879605, '4': 0.16578970930959505, '5': 0.1343871821848224, '6': 0.09219853391866979, '7': 0.05353725160143299, '8': 0.026312009621017676, '9': 0.010945052670961937, '10': 0.0038534309584283243}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0693331534503768, '1': 0.10978972921583495, '2': 0.14788238541257537, '3': 0.1694357906777621, '4': 0.16513070417360554, '5': 0.13689402251198038, '6': 0.09653284595568369, '7': 0.057902819035545464, '8': 0.029543250647580146, '9': 0.012821853869944966, '10': 0.004733445049110887}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.6232, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.372, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2749} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 WAS', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 WAS', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0347, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.022, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2749, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 4 - 3 WAS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 4 - 3 WAS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAA, simulation=LAA, published=LAA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.506. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAA wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: LAA wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | WAS wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting walks match WAS pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting hits match WAS pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAA PA=34 matches WAS BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting walks match LAA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting hits match LAA pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:WAS PA=35 matches LAA BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.528 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 430, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5465, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5283, 'published_confidence': 0.505648, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | WAS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.506. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.506. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.494. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.682/0.893. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 5, WAS 6. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 4 - WAS 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'WAS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'WAS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.575673, 'artifact': '20260911_LAA@WAS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 WAS', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 WAS', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0347, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.022, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2749, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_LAA@WAS. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@WAS. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0083, 'away_run_delta': -0.0083, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029331098996152067}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02858584371133114}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028090710483107573}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.027376971443030796}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02592148258101339}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07244615760448497, '1': 0.11443320856548671, '2': 0.15298705472630406, '3': 0.17311040883879605, '4': 0.16578970930959505, '5': 0.1343871821848224, '6': 0.09219853391866979, '7': 0.05353725160143299, '8': 0.026312009621017676, '9': 0.010945052670961937, '10': 0.0038534309584283243}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0693331534503768, '1': 0.10978972921583495, '2': 0.14788238541257537, '3': 0.1694357906777621, '4': 0.16513070417360554, '5': 0.13689402251198038, '6': 0.09653284595568369, '7': 0.057902819035545464, '8': 0.029543250647580146, '9': 0.012821853869944966, '10': 0.004733445049110887}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.6232, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.372, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2749} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 WAS', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 WAS', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0347, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.022, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2749, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 4 - 3 WAS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 4 - 3 WAS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAA, simulation=LAA, published=LAA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.506. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAA wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: LAA wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | WAS wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Moore: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jose Siri: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Zach Neto: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Wade Meckler: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Denzer Guzman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=2; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brady House: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Abimelec Ortiz: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: BB current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Keibert Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.844709199232127 | 4.930302438505711 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 3 | 0.506 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 3 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 3 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 3 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 3 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAA | batting | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | LAA | pitching | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | WAS | batting | 33 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | WAS | pitching | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | LAA | batting | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | LAA | pitching | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9.0 | 3 | 35 | 142 | |||||||||
| simulation | WAS | batting | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | WAS | pitching | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 9.0 | 4 | 34 | 161 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAA | 1B | Vaughn Grissom | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | 2B | Christian Moore | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | LF | Jose Siri | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | LAA | DH | Moisés Ballesteros | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | SS | Zach Neto | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | RF | Wade Meckler | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | LAA | CF | Mike Trout | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | 3B | Denzer Guzman | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | LAA | C | Travis d'Arnaud | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | WAS | DH | James Wood | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | 3B | Brady House | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | 1B | Abimelec Ortiz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | SS | CJ Abrams | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | RF | Dylan Crews | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | 2B | Jorbit Vivas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | WAS | LF | Daylen Lile | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | C | Keibert Ruiz | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | WAS | CF | Jacob Young | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | LAA | 1 | SS | Zach Neto | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAA | 2 | CF | Mike Trout | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAA | 3 | 1B | Vaughn Grissom | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAA | 4 | DH | Moisés Ballesteros | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAA | 5 | 2B | Christian Moore | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAA | 6 | LF | Jose Siri | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAA | 7 | 3B | Denzer Guzman | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAA | 8 | C | Travis d'Arnaud | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | LAA | 9 | RF | Wade Meckler | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 1 | DH | James Wood | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 2 | 1B | Abimelec Ortiz | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 3 | RF | Dylan Crews | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | WAS | 4 | SS | CJ Abrams | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 5 | 3B | Brady House | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | WAS | 6 | LF | Daylen Lile | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | WAS | 7 | C | Keibert Ruiz | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | WAS | 8 | CF | Jacob Young | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 9 | 2B | Jorbit Vivas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAA | 1 | Walbert Ureña | Starter | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.50 | 2.74 | 1.21 |
| current | LAA | 2 | Ben Joyce | Closer | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.18 | 0.97 |
| current | LAA | 3 | Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 4.12 | 1.27 |
| current | LAA | 4 | Tayler Saucedo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.24 | 1.08 |
| current | WAS | 1 | Andrew Alvarez | Starter | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.60 | 1.32 |
| current | WAS | 2 | Brad Lord | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 3.76 | 1.24 |
| current | WAS | 3 | Erik Tolman | Setup Man | 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 2.89 | 1.29 |
| current | WAS | 4 | Clayton Beeter | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.12 | 1.33 |
| simulation | LAA | 1 | Walbert Ureña | Starter | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 88 | 1.50 | 2.74 | 1.21 |
| simulation | LAA | 2 | Ben Joyce | Closer | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 9.00 | 3.18 | 0.97 |
| simulation | LAA | 3 | Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 6.75 | 4.12 | 1.27 |
| simulation | LAA | 4 | Tayler Saucedo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 3.24 | 1.08 |
| simulation | WAS | 1 | Andrew Alvarez | Starter | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 15 | 75 | 0.00 | 3.60 | 1.32 |
| simulation | WAS | 2 | Clayton Beeter | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 4.12 | 1.33 |
| simulation | WAS | 3 | Erik Tolman | Setup Man | 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 13.50 | 2.89 | 1.29 |
| simulation | WAS | 4 | Brad Lord | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 13.50 | 3.76 | 1.24 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | Walbert Ureña | Starter | 6.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 88 |
| LAA | Ben Joyce | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 22 |
| LAA | Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 24 |
| LAA | Tayler Saucedo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| WAS | Andrew Alvarez | Starter | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 75 |
| WAS | Brad Lord | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 43 |
| WAS | Erik Tolman | Setup Man | 1.1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 26 |
| WAS | Clayton Beeter | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260912_LAD@MIA
20260912_LAD@MIA.json • 2026-09-12
LAD 7 - MIA 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Will Smith: R current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Freddie Freeman: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josue De Paula: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=9; ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=10, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Griffin Conine: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Javier Sanoja: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3; Jakob Marsee: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Owen Caissie: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Graham Pauley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting walks match MIA pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting hits match MIA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAD PA=42 matches MIA BF=42. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting walks match LAD pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting hits match LAD pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIA PA=36 matches LAD BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.860 -> 0.708 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.85999, 'sample_size': 117, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5556, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.707795, 'published_confidence': 0.6, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.682/0.893. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 9, MIA 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 7 - MIA 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5800000000000001, 'artifact': '20260911_LAD@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 7 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 7 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0558, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.868, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1782, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_LAD@MIA. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@MIA. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.75, 'home_run_delta': -0.0187, 'away_run_delta': 0.0187, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01851210090965524}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.018422931324577563}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.017860726258653998}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017774694232497557}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.01713007763237887}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05813674494500982, '1': 0.09287324141940723, '2': 0.12844071929942968, '3': 0.15377547925533083, '4': 0.15938361901862613, '5': 0.14301201076713108, '6': 0.11108964437140441, '7': 0.07470451911790638, '8': 0.04349030034901345, '9': 0.021918466900478398, '10': 0.009563132548652447, '11': 0.0036121220076102316}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.01989173979834944, '1': 0.032774031505090194, '2': 0.049727154713462465, '3': 0.06948067046126788, '4': 0.08940072424232531, '5': 0.10593140194846061, '6': 0.11558861216738085, '7': 0.11614807734722005, '8': 0.10747702767608124, '9': 0.09158533028554515, '10': 0.07186920337771129, '11': 0.05193574819327053, '12': 0.03456181971222361, '13': 0.021180365719604587, '14': 0.011953000991583394, '15': 0.00621193786052733, '16': 0.002972924611532211, '17': 0.001310229388363642}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.3452, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.868, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.1782} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 7 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 7 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0558, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.868, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1782, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 178. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 178. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 7 - 4 MIA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 7 - 4 MIA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: LAD wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting walks match MIA pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting hits match MIA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAD PA=42 matches MIA BF=42. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting walks match LAD pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting hits match LAD pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIA PA=36 matches LAD BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.860 -> 0.708 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.85999, 'sample_size': 117, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5556, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.707795, 'published_confidence': 0.6, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.682/0.893. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 9, MIA 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 7 - MIA 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5800000000000001, 'artifact': '20260911_LAD@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 7 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 7 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0558, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.868, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1782, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_LAD@MIA. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@MIA. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.75, 'home_run_delta': -0.0187, 'away_run_delta': 0.0187, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01851210090965524}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.018422931324577563}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.017860726258653998}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017774694232497557}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.01713007763237887}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05813674494500982, '1': 0.09287324141940723, '2': 0.12844071929942968, '3': 0.15377547925533083, '4': 0.15938361901862613, '5': 0.14301201076713108, '6': 0.11108964437140441, '7': 0.07470451911790638, '8': 0.04349030034901345, '9': 0.021918466900478398, '10': 0.009563132548652447, '11': 0.0036121220076102316}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.01989173979834944, '1': 0.032774031505090194, '2': 0.049727154713462465, '3': 0.06948067046126788, '4': 0.08940072424232531, '5': 0.10593140194846061, '6': 0.11558861216738085, '7': 0.11614807734722005, '8': 0.10747702767608124, '9': 0.09158533028554515, '10': 0.07186920337771129, '11': 0.05193574819327053, '12': 0.03456181971222361, '13': 0.021180365719604587, '14': 0.011953000991583394, '15': 0.00621193786052733, '16': 0.002972924611532211, '17': 0.001310229388363642}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.3452, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.868, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.1782} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 7 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 7 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0558, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.868, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1782, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 178. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 178. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 7 - 4 MIA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 7 - 4 MIA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: LAD wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Will Smith: R current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Freddie Freeman: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josue De Paula: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=9; ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=10, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Griffin Conine: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Javier Sanoja: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3; Jakob Marsee: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Owen Caissie: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Graham Pauley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 5.082823033560203 | 2.9173109966003663 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 3 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 7 | 4 | 0.600 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 7 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 7 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 7 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 7 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAD | batting | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | LAD | pitching | 7 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | MIA | batting | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | MIA | pitching | 10 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | LAD | batting | 36 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | LAD | pitching | 7 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 36 | 146 | |||||||||
| simulation | MIA | batting | 34 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | MIA | pitching | 9 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 9.0 | 7 | 42 | 178 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAD | CF | Tommy Edman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | C | Will Smith | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | 3B | Max Muncy | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | 1B | Freddie Freeman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | DH | Josue De Paula | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | LAD | SS | Mookie Betts | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | LF | Teoscar Hernández | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | RF | Kyle Tucker | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | 2B | Alex Freeland | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIA | DH | Kyle Stowers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | 1B | Griffin Conine | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | 2B | Javier Sanoja | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | LF | Heriberto Hernández | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | CF | Jakob Marsee | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | SS | Otto Lopez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | RF | Owen Caissie | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIA | 3B | Graham Pauley | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIA | C | Joe Mack | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | LAD | 1 | CF | Tommy Edman | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAD | 2 | 1B | Freddie Freeman | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAD | 3 | SS | Mookie Betts | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | LAD | 4 | 3B | Max Muncy | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAD | 5 | C | Will Smith | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAD | 6 | LF | Teoscar Hernández | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | LAD | 7 | RF | Kyle Tucker | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAD | 8 | DH | Josue De Paula | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | LAD | 9 | 2B | Alex Freeland | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | MIA | 1 | DH | Kyle Stowers | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIA | 2 | LF | Heriberto Hernández | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | MIA | 3 | 1B | Griffin Conine | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIA | 4 | SS | Otto Lopez | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIA | 5 | CF | Jakob Marsee | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIA | 6 | 2B | Javier Sanoja | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIA | 7 | RF | Owen Caissie | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | MIA | 8 | 3B | Graham Pauley | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIA | 9 | C | Joe Mack | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAD | 1 | Tyler Glasnow | Starter | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 0.88 |
| current | LAD | 2 | Brock Stewart | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.38 | 1.01 |
| current | LAD | 3 | Edgardo Henriquez | Setup Man | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 2.58 | 0.98 |
| current | LAD | 4 | Tanner Scott | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.62 | 0.98 |
| current | MIA | 1 | Tyler Phillips | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 3.51 | 1.33 |
| current | MIA | 2 | Calvin Faucher | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 3.67 | 1.34 |
| current | MIA | 3 | Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.24 | 1.11 |
| current | MIA | 4 | Tyler Zuber | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.93 | 1.41 |
| current | MIA | 5 | Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 4.94 | 1.55 |
| simulation | LAD | 1 | Tyler Glasnow | Starter | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 22 | 92 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 0.88 |
| simulation | LAD | 2 | Tanner Scott | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.62 | 0.98 |
| simulation | LAD | 3 | Edgardo Henriquez | Setup Man | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 27.00 | 2.58 | 0.98 |
| simulation | LAD | 4 | Brock Stewart | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 9.00 | 2.38 | 1.01 |
| simulation | MIA | 1 | Tyler Phillips | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 7.20 | 3.51 | 1.33 |
| simulation | MIA | 2 | Calvin Faucher | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 18.00 | 3.67 | 1.34 |
| simulation | MIA | 3 | Tyler Zuber | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 4.93 | 1.41 |
| simulation | MIA | 4 | Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0.00 | 3.24 | 1.11 |
| simulation | MIA | 5 | Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 9.00 | 4.94 | 1.55 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | Tyler Glasnow | Starter | 6.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 92 |
| LAD | Brock Stewart | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| LAD | Edgardo Henriquez | Setup Man | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 22 |
| LAD | Tanner Scott | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| MIA | Tyler Phillips | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 107 |
| MIA | Calvin Faucher | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| MIA | Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| MIA | Tyler Zuber | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| MIA | Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260912_NYM@NYY
20260912_NYM@NYY.json • 2026-09-12
NYM 5 - NYY 7
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=11; ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=3; HBP: current=0, sim=3). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; A.J. Ewing: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jared Young: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=41; H: current=8, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Aaron Judge: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Heliot Ramos: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Amed Rosario: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Anthony Volpe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting walks match NYY pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting home runs match NYY pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting hits match NYY pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYM PA=42 matches NYY BF=42. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting walks match NYM pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting home runs match NYM pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting hits match NYM pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYY PA=47 matches NYM BF=47. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.539 -> 0.545 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.539146, 'sample_size': 620, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.55, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.544573, 'published_confidence': 0.53918, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYM current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYY current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.736/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 8, NYY 11. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 5 - NYY 7. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYY. | {'winner_confidence': 0.53918, 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'NYM', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260911_NYM@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_NYM@NYY. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@NYY. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.25, 'home_run_delta': 0.0062, 'away_run_delta': -0.0062, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018447355535286487}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017867216869311794}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017804941369413175}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017245005561050245}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01716349365640124}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03273519545935881, '1': 0.05335386625176054, '2': 0.07836302993584919, '3': 0.1037172302638963, '4': 0.12370434896347127, '5': 0.13295766889156677, '6': 0.12877637122457514, '7': 0.11239664309627599, '8': 0.08840256470032629, '9': 0.0626571671512098, '10': 0.04001944056964128, '11': 0.023033802445421386, '12': 0.011946883501016256, '13': 0.005583904556648001, '14': 0.0023518829889828696}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.037825593900161186, '1': 0.06139968931845044, '2': 0.08908403495367617, '3': 0.11552789857393872, '4': 0.13391436175023452, '5': 0.13874608128344348, '6': 0.12848948367473276, '7': 0.10635740440254274, '8': 0.07869029332620153, '9': 0.05203887345741947, '10': 0.03076011087232894, '11': 0.016251789730965156, '12': 0.007674812618107923, '13': 0.0032395721377970893}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.3639, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.012, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.8824} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'NYM 5 - 7 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'NYM 5 - 7 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.014, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.012, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.75, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8824, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 201. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 201. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 5 - 7 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 5 - 7 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 7-5 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 5-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-7, final 5-7 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 12. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYY wins 7-5 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYM wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYY wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting walks match NYY pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting home runs match NYY pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting hits match NYY pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYM PA=42 matches NYY BF=42. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting walks match NYM pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting home runs match NYM pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting hits match NYM pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYY PA=47 matches NYM BF=47. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.539 -> 0.545 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.539146, 'sample_size': 620, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.55, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.544573, 'published_confidence': 0.53918, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYM current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYY current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.736/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 8, NYY 11. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 5 - NYY 7. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYY. | {'winner_confidence': 0.53918, 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'NYM', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260911_NYM@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_NYM@NYY. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@NYY. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.25, 'home_run_delta': 0.0062, 'away_run_delta': -0.0062, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018447355535286487}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017867216869311794}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017804941369413175}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017245005561050245}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01716349365640124}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03273519545935881, '1': 0.05335386625176054, '2': 0.07836302993584919, '3': 0.1037172302638963, '4': 0.12370434896347127, '5': 0.13295766889156677, '6': 0.12877637122457514, '7': 0.11239664309627599, '8': 0.08840256470032629, '9': 0.0626571671512098, '10': 0.04001944056964128, '11': 0.023033802445421386, '12': 0.011946883501016256, '13': 0.005583904556648001, '14': 0.0023518829889828696}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.037825593900161186, '1': 0.06139968931845044, '2': 0.08908403495367617, '3': 0.11552789857393872, '4': 0.13391436175023452, '5': 0.13874608128344348, '6': 0.12848948367473276, '7': 0.10635740440254274, '8': 0.07869029332620153, '9': 0.05203887345741947, '10': 0.03076011087232894, '11': 0.016251789730965156, '12': 0.007674812618107923, '13': 0.0032395721377970893}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.3639, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.012, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.8824} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'NYM 5 - 7 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'NYM 5 - 7 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.014, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.012, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.75, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8824, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 201. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 201. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 5 - 7 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 5 - 7 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 7-5 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 5-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-7. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-7, final 5-7 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 12. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYY wins 7-5 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYM wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYY wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=11; ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=3; HBP: current=0, sim=3). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; A.J. Ewing: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jared Young: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=41; H: current=8, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Aaron Judge: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Heliot Ramos: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Amed Rosario: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Anthony Volpe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.268987366152122 | 4.91846927432116 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 6 | 0.539 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 7 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 7 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 7 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 5 | 7 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | NYM | batting | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | NYM | pitching | 6 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 8.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | NYY | batting | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | NYY | pitching | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | NYM | batting | 38 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |||||||
| simulation | NYM | pitching | 11 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 10.0 | 7 | 47 | 201 | |||||||||
| simulation | NYY | batting | 41 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | NYY | pitching | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10.0 | 5 | 42 | 167 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | NYM | DH | Juan Soto | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | RF | Carson Benge | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | SS | Francisco Lindor | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | CF | A.J. Ewing | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | LF | Brett Baty | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | NYM | 2B | Marcus Semien | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYM | 1B | Jared Young | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | 3B | Bo Bichette | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | C | Francisco Alvarez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | DH | Aaron Judge | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | RF | Heliot Ramos | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | 3B | Amed Rosario | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | CF | Spencer Jones | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | 2B | Anthony Volpe | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | 1B | Paul Goldschmidt | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | LF | Cody Bellinger | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | SS | George Lombard Jr. | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | C | Austin Wells | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | NYM | 1 | SS | Francisco Lindor | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | NYM | 2 | DH | Juan Soto | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | NYM | 3 | 3B | Bo Bichette | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 4 | RF | Carson Benge | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 5 | 1B | Jared Young | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYM | 6 | 2B | Marcus Semien | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYM | 7 | CF | A.J. Ewing | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYM | 8 | LF | Brett Baty | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYM | 9 | C | Francisco Alvarez | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 |
| simulation | NYY | 1 | 1B | Paul Goldschmidt | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | NYY | 2 | DH | Aaron Judge | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | NYY | 3 | LF | Cody Bellinger | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | NYY | 4 | RF | Heliot Ramos | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYY | 5 | 3B | Amed Rosario | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYY | 6 | CF | Spencer Jones | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | NYY | 7 | SS | George Lombard Jr. | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | NYY | 8 | 2B | Anthony Volpe | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | NYY | 9 | C | Austin Wells | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | NYM | 1 | Zac Thornton | Starter | 5.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.53 | 1.19 |
| current | NYM | 2 | Daniel Duarte | Setup Man | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| current | NYM | 3 | Nathan Lavender | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 1.88 | 0.98 |
| current | NYM | 4 | Kodai Senga | Closer | 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 54.00 | 7.14 | 1.60 |
| current | NYY | 1 | Gerrit Cole | Starter | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 3.41 | 1.09 |
| current | NYY | 2 | Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 1.96 | 1.20 |
| current | NYY | 3 | David Bednar | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 2.70 | 1.03 |
| current | NYY | 4 | Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.69 | 1.07 |
| simulation | NYM | 1 | Zac Thornton | Starter | 5.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 24 | 109 | 0.00 | 3.53 | 1.19 |
| simulation | NYM | 2 | Kodai Senga | Closer | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 3.86 | 7.14 | 1.60 |
| simulation | NYM | 3 | Daniel Duarte | Setup Man | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 6.75 | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| simulation | NYM | 4 | Nathan Lavender | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 45.00 | 1.88 | 0.98 |
| simulation | NYY | 1 | Gerrit Cole | Starter | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 110 | 4.50 | 3.41 | 1.09 |
| simulation | NYY | 2 | David Bednar | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 6.75 | 2.70 | 1.03 |
| simulation | NYY | 3 | Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 1.96 | 1.20 |
| simulation | NYY | 4 | Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 1.69 | 1.07 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | Zac Thornton | Starter | 5.1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 109 |
| NYM | Daniel Duarte | Setup Man | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 |
| NYM | Nathan Lavender | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 34 |
| NYM | Kodai Senga | Closer | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 38 |
| NYY | Gerrit Cole | Starter | 6.0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 110 |
| NYY | Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
| NYY | David Bednar | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 |
| NYY | Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 21 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260912_PHI@ATL
20260912_PHI@ATL.json • 2026-09-12
PHI 4 - ATL 3
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2; Drake Baldwin: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ozzie Albies: 2B current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brewer Hicklen: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ha-Seong Kim: H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=3 box=4; Luis Arraez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting walks match PHI pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting home runs match PHI pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting hits match PHI pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ATL PA=34 matches PHI BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting walks match ATL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting hits match ATL pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PHI PA=40 matches ATL BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.458 -> 0.502 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.458369, 'sample_size': 430, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5465, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.502435, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ATL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PHI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.682/0.893. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 10, ATL 6. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 4 - ATL 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-09-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-09-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.527156, 'artifact': '20260911_PHI@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260907', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260907_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260906', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.550646, 'artifact': '20260906_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260905', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.537979, 'artifact': '20260905_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5599339999999999, 'artifact': '20260904_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ATL', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ATL', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0123, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.078, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3651, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_PHI@ATL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@ATL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0115, 'away_run_delta': -0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03269274760285564}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.030284719901949527}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029952930296156022}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02976917917880518}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02958782904144647}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08138513719343321, '1': 0.12762934495722902, '2': 0.16697802245458396, '3': 0.18225162911797801, '4': 0.16595366864693656, '5': 0.1260682222655397, '6': 0.07989649592878628, '7': 0.04224284592484178, '8': 0.01863296372448566, '9': 0.0068566825095470315, '10': 0.0021049872766385866}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07835496050550522, '1': 0.12317914334113586, '2': 0.16234603325434863, '3': 0.17938247115306966, '4': 0.16616981723847934, '5': 0.12905002727662884, '6': 0.08402294082905962, '7': 0.04586395196508935, '8': 0.020988378554028353, '9': 0.008052303253080302, '10': 0.002589972629575009}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5574, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.008, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3651} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ATL', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ATL', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0123, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.078, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3651, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 4 - 3 ATL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 4 - 3 ATL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PHI wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: PHI wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting walks match PHI pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting home runs match PHI pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting hits match PHI pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ATL PA=34 matches PHI BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting walks match ATL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting hits match ATL pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PHI PA=40 matches ATL BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.458 -> 0.502 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.458369, 'sample_size': 430, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5465, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.502435, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ATL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PHI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.682/0.893. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 10, ATL 6. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 4 - ATL 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-09-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-09-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.527156, 'artifact': '20260911_PHI@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260907', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260907_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260906', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.550646, 'artifact': '20260906_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260905', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.537979, 'artifact': '20260905_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5599339999999999, 'artifact': '20260904_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ATL', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ATL', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0123, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.078, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3651, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_PHI@ATL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@ATL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0115, 'away_run_delta': -0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03269274760285564}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.030284719901949527}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029952930296156022}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02976917917880518}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02958782904144647}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08138513719343321, '1': 0.12762934495722902, '2': 0.16697802245458396, '3': 0.18225162911797801, '4': 0.16595366864693656, '5': 0.1260682222655397, '6': 0.07989649592878628, '7': 0.04224284592484178, '8': 0.01863296372448566, '9': 0.0068566825095470315, '10': 0.0021049872766385866}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07835496050550522, '1': 0.12317914334113586, '2': 0.16234603325434863, '3': 0.17938247115306966, '4': 0.16616981723847934, '5': 0.12905002727662884, '6': 0.08402294082905962, '7': 0.04586395196508935, '8': 0.020988378554028353, '9': 0.008052303253080302, '10': 0.002589972629575009}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5574, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.008, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3651} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ATL', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ATL', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0123, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.078, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3651, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 4 - 3 ATL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 4 - 3 ATL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PHI wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: PHI wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2; Drake Baldwin: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ozzie Albies: 2B current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brewer Hicklen: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ha-Seong Kim: H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=3 box=4; Luis Arraez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.7745893168687434 | 4.674722962200752 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 3 | 0.505 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 3 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 3 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 3 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 3 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| ATL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | PHI | batting | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | PHI | pitching | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | ATL | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | ATL | pitching | 10 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | PHI | batting | 37 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | PHI | pitching | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9.0 | 3 | 34 | 132 | |||||||||
| simulation | ATL | batting | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | ATL | pitching | 10 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9.0 | 4 | 40 | 169 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | PHI | RF | Bryce Harper | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | 1B | Alec Bohm | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | 3B | Bryson Stott | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PHI | DH | Kyle Schwarber | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | SS | Trea Turner | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | LF | Brandon Marsh | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PHI | 2B | Luis Arraez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | C | J.T. Realmuto | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PHI | CF | Justin Crawford | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | ATL | DH | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | C | Drake Baldwin | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | 2B | Ozzie Albies | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | 1B | Matt Olson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | LF | Mauricio Dubón | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | RF | Brewer Hicklen | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ATL | 3B | Austin Riley | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ATL | SS | Ha-Seong Kim | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | ATL | CF | Michael Harris II | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | PHI | 1 | DH | Kyle Schwarber | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PHI | 2 | SS | Trea Turner | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | PHI | 3 | RF | Bryce Harper | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | PHI | 4 | 2B | Luis Arraez | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | PHI | 5 | 1B | Alec Bohm | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 6 | 3B | Bryson Stott | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 7 | LF | Brandon Marsh | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PHI | 8 | C | J.T. Realmuto | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | PHI | 9 | CF | Justin Crawford | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ATL | 1 | DH | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | ATL | 2 | C | Drake Baldwin | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ATL | 3 | 2B | Ozzie Albies | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ATL | 4 | 1B | Matt Olson | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ATL | 5 | LF | Mauricio Dubón | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ATL | 6 | CF | Michael Harris II | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ATL | 7 | 3B | Austin Riley | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ATL | 8 | RF | Brewer Hicklen | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | ATL | 9 | SS | Ha-Seong Kim | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | PHI | 1 | Tim Mayza | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.80 | 3.23 | 1.06 |
| current | PHI | 2 | Jhoan Duran | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 1.49 | 0.98 |
| current | PHI | 3 | Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 1.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 3.27 | 1.02 |
| current | PHI | 4 | Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.12 | 1.30 |
| current | ATL | 1 | Tyler Mahle | Starter | 5.2 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.76 | 4.05 | 1.27 |
| current | ATL | 2 | Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.29 | 1.08 |
| current | ATL | 3 | Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.27 | 0.84 |
| current | ATL | 4 | Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.78 | 1.16 |
| simulation | PHI | 1 | Tim Mayza | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 18 | 73 | 1.80 | 3.23 | 1.06 |
| simulation | PHI | 2 | Jhoan Duran | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 6.75 | 1.49 | 0.98 |
| simulation | PHI | 3 | Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 1.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 5.40 | 3.27 | 1.02 |
| simulation | PHI | 4 | Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 4.12 | 1.30 |
| simulation | ATL | 1 | Tyler Mahle | Starter | 5.2 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 118 | 4.76 | 4.05 | 1.27 |
| simulation | ATL | 2 | Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 2.78 | 1.16 |
| simulation | ATL | 3 | Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.27 | 0.84 |
| simulation | ATL | 4 | Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 0.00 | 2.29 | 1.08 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Tim Mayza | Starter | 5.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 73 |
| PHI | Jhoan Duran | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 |
| PHI | Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 1.2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 26 |
| PHI | Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| ATL | Tyler Mahle | Starter | 5.2 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 118 |
| ATL | Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 22 |
| ATL | Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| ATL | Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260912_PIT@CHC
20260912_PIT@CHC.json • 2026-09-12
PIT 4 - CHC 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=2, sim=0; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Busch: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alex Bregman: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Pedro Ramirez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Carson Kelly: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; HR: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan O'Hearn: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Konnor Griffin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Esmerlyn Valdez: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Spencer Horwitz: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Rafael Flores Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting walks match PIT pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting home runs match PIT pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting hits match PIT pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHC PA=36 matches PIT BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting walks match CHC pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting hits match CHC pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PIT PA=38 matches CHC BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.525 -> 0.536 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.52508, 'sample_size': 430, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5465, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53579, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PIT current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.558/0.749. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 8, CHC 9. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 4 - CHC 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'CHC', 'h2h_net_margin': -20, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -10, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-07-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-07-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -11, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 10, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260911_PIT@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260724', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260724_CHC@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PIT', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 5 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 5 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0204, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.094, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4382, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_PIT@CHC. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@CHC. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 26.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 26.0, 'home_average_margin': 5.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.15, 'away_run_delta': -0.15, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020394143254844607}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019726669515074742}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019434329875388238}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01918343067513468}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018798269577107986}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.036069324384310056, '1': 0.0586319366651356, '2': 0.085430979822188, '3': 0.11157873955379874, '4': 0.13062684293969187, '5': 0.13707817891955712, '6': 0.128940436943943, '7': 0.10871635042853003, '8': 0.0821647442916292, '9': 0.055662289664676956, '10': 0.033800376818076856, '11': 0.01839784403117225, '12': 0.008976297532575788, '13': 0.003925658004714503}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.047484732024658007, '1': 0.07649239670326455, '2': 0.10846847953324244, '3': 0.13539724969264633, '4': 0.14877745980863005, '5': 0.14390816737251177, '6': 0.12253347562533232, '7': 0.09184279005696803, '8': 0.06059773495034556, '9': 0.03519562813123774, '10': 0.017994594152183716, '11': 0.008098720261852398, '12': 0.0032085716871269303}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.8378, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.304, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.4382} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 5 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 5 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0204, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.094, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4382, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 4 - 5 CHC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 4 - 5 CHC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CHC wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PIT wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting walks match PIT pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting home runs match PIT pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting hits match PIT pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHC PA=36 matches PIT BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting walks match CHC pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting hits match CHC pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PIT PA=38 matches CHC BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.525 -> 0.536 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.52508, 'sample_size': 430, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5465, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53579, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PIT current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.558/0.749. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 8, CHC 9. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 4 - CHC 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'CHC', 'h2h_net_margin': -20, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -10, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-07-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-07-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -11, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 10, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260911_PIT@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260724', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260724_CHC@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PIT', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 5 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 5 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0204, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.094, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4382, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_PIT@CHC. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@CHC. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 26.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 26.0, 'home_average_margin': 5.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.15, 'away_run_delta': -0.15, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020394143254844607}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019726669515074742}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019434329875388238}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01918343067513468}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018798269577107986}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.036069324384310056, '1': 0.0586319366651356, '2': 0.085430979822188, '3': 0.11157873955379874, '4': 0.13062684293969187, '5': 0.13707817891955712, '6': 0.128940436943943, '7': 0.10871635042853003, '8': 0.0821647442916292, '9': 0.055662289664676956, '10': 0.033800376818076856, '11': 0.01839784403117225, '12': 0.008976297532575788, '13': 0.003925658004714503}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.047484732024658007, '1': 0.07649239670326455, '2': 0.10846847953324244, '3': 0.13539724969264633, '4': 0.14877745980863005, '5': 0.14390816737251177, '6': 0.12253347562533232, '7': 0.09184279005696803, '8': 0.06059773495034556, '9': 0.03519562813123774, '10': 0.017994594152183716, '11': 0.008098720261852398, '12': 0.0032085716871269303}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.8378, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.304, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.4382} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 5 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 5 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0204, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.094, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4382, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 4 - 5 CHC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 4 - 5 CHC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CHC wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PIT wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=2, sim=0; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Busch: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alex Bregman: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Pedro Ramirez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Carson Kelly: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; HR: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan O'Hearn: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Konnor Griffin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Esmerlyn Valdez: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Spencer Horwitz: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Rafael Flores Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 5.022367509877458 | 4.063854306345057 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.530 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | PIT | batting | 35 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | PIT | pitching | 9 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 8.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | CHC | batting | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CHC | pitching | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | PIT | batting | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | PIT | pitching | 9 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 8.1 | 5 | 36 | 137 | |||||||||
| simulation | CHC | batting | 34 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | CHC | pitching | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 38 | 169 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | PIT | DH | Ryan O'Hearn | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | SS | Konnor Griffin | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | RF | Esmerlyn Valdez | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | PIT | CF | Oneil Cruz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | 2B | Brandon Lowe | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | LF | Bryan Reynolds | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | 1B | Spencer Horwitz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | C | Rafael Flores Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | 3B | Nick Gonzales | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHC | 1B | Michael Busch | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | CF | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | SS | Nico Hoerner | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | 3B | Alex Bregman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | RF | Seiya Suzuki | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | 2B | Pedro Ramirez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | LF | Ian Happ | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | C | Carson Kelly | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHC | DH | Michael Conforto | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | PIT | 1 | SS | Konnor Griffin | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PIT | 2 | 2B | Brandon Lowe | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PIT | 3 | LF | Bryan Reynolds | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PIT | 4 | DH | Ryan O'Hearn | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | PIT | 5 | CF | Oneil Cruz | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | PIT | 6 | RF | Esmerlyn Valdez | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PIT | 7 | 1B | Spencer Horwitz | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PIT | 8 | C | Rafael Flores Jr. | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PIT | 9 | 3B | Nick Gonzales | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | CHC | 1 | CF | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHC | 2 | RF | Seiya Suzuki | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 |
| simulation | CHC | 3 | 1B | Michael Busch | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHC | 4 | 3B | Alex Bregman | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHC | 5 | LF | Ian Happ | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHC | 6 | SS | Nico Hoerner | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHC | 7 | 2B | Pedro Ramirez | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | CHC | 8 | DH | Michael Conforto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHC | 9 | C | Carson Kelly | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | PIT | 1 | Paul Skenes | Starter | 5.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.06 | 3.83 | 1.15 |
| current | PIT | 2 | Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.60 | 0.96 |
| current | PIT | 3 | Mason Montgomery | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.48 | 1.01 |
| current | PIT | 4 | Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 2.64 | 1.01 |
| current | CHC | 1 | Clay Holmes | Starter | 5.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.18 | 2.83 | 1.12 |
| current | CHC | 2 | Jacob Webb | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.36 | 1.25 |
| current | CHC | 3 | Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 4.18 | 1.27 |
| current | CHC | 4 | Trent Thornton | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.17 | 1.18 |
| current | CHC | 5 | Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.12 | 1.29 |
| simulation | PIT | 1 | Paul Skenes | Starter | 5.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 91 | 5.06 | 3.83 | 1.15 |
| simulation | PIT | 2 | Mason Montgomery | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 9.00 | 2.48 | 1.01 |
| simulation | PIT | 3 | Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.60 | 0.96 |
| simulation | PIT | 4 | Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 9.00 | 2.64 | 1.01 |
| simulation | CHC | 1 | Clay Holmes | Starter | 5.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 25 | 110 | 3.18 | 2.83 | 1.12 |
| simulation | CHC | 2 | Jacob Webb | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0.00 | 3.36 | 1.25 |
| simulation | CHC | 3 | Trent Thornton | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 3.17 | 1.18 |
| simulation | CHC | 4 | Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 18.00 | 4.18 | 1.27 |
| simulation | CHC | 5 | Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.00 | 4.12 | 1.29 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Paul Skenes | Starter | 5.1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 91 |
| PIT | Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| PIT | Mason Montgomery | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| PIT | Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| CHC | Clay Holmes | Starter | 5.2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 110 |
| CHC | Jacob Webb | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 |
| CHC | Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 |
| CHC | Trent Thornton | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| CHC | Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260912_SD@SF
20260912_SD@SF.json • 2026-09-12
SD 5 - SF 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Luis Campusano: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Hays: H current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=4 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Samad Taylor: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Jackson Merrill: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Rafael Devers: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Turner Hill: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Osleivis Basabe: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Drew Cavanaugh: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Drew Gilbert: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jung Hoo Lee: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | SD | BATTING_REALISM | current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SF | BATTING_REALISM | current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SF | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SD batting walks match SF pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SD batting home runs match SF pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SD batting hits match SF pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SD batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SD PA=39 matches SF BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SF batting walks match SD pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SF batting home runs match SD pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SF batting hits match SD pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SF batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SF PA=38 matches SD BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.528 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 430, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5465, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5283, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SF current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SF current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.682/0.893. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: SD 7, SF 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: SD 5 - SF 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.56, reasons=local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SD', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-08-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-08-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260911_SD@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260802', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260802_SF@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260801', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260801_SF@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260731', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260731_SF@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260730', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260730_SF@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SD', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SD 5 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SD 5 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0164, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.518, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6323, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_SD@SF. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@SF. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0462, 'away_run_delta': 0.0462, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024060133301845605}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02274530911761823}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022508978450413112}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022471970592906173}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022161793503559776}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.054370712782920765, '1': 0.08711022691374375, '2': 0.12152732894590323, '3': 0.14763164171678822, '4': 0.15616569381002046, '5': 0.1438442511992374, '6': 0.11537190764679155, '7': 0.08057648655514356, '8': 0.049002390686120105, '9': 0.025949374844138923, '10': 0.011965675465062909, '11': 0.004804500344100516, '12': 0.0016798090900285495}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.052178335227108644, '1': 0.08374221330451448, '2': 0.11743553658799706, '3': 0.14389825348097193, '4': 0.15406798199299374, '5': 0.14413523163285694, '6': 0.11782265139058713, '7': 0.0841566264228886, '8': 0.052522903805856246, '9': 0.02864244083520041, '10': 0.013648100303954374, '11': 0.005682445399665142, '12': 0.0020672796154051765}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.807, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.308, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.6323} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SD 5 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SD 5 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0164, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.518, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6323, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 5 - 4 SF. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 5 - 4 SF. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SD wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: SD wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SD wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | SD | BATTING_REALISM | current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SF | BATTING_REALISM | current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SF | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SD batting walks match SF pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SD batting home runs match SF pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SD batting hits match SF pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SD batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SD PA=39 matches SF BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SF batting walks match SD pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SF batting home runs match SD pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SF batting hits match SD pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SF batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SF PA=38 matches SD BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.528 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 430, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5465, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5283, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SF current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SF current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.682/0.893. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: SD 7, SF 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: SD 5 - SF 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.56, reasons=local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SD', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-08-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-08-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260911_SD@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260802', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260802_SF@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260801', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260801_SF@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260731', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260731_SF@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260730', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260730_SF@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SD', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SD 5 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SD 5 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0164, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.518, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6323, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_SD@SF. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@SF. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0462, 'away_run_delta': 0.0462, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024060133301845605}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02274530911761823}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022508978450413112}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022471970592906173}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022161793503559776}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.054370712782920765, '1': 0.08711022691374375, '2': 0.12152732894590323, '3': 0.14763164171678822, '4': 0.15616569381002046, '5': 0.1438442511992374, '6': 0.11537190764679155, '7': 0.08057648655514356, '8': 0.049002390686120105, '9': 0.025949374844138923, '10': 0.011965675465062909, '11': 0.004804500344100516, '12': 0.0016798090900285495}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.052178335227108644, '1': 0.08374221330451448, '2': 0.11743553658799706, '3': 0.14389825348097193, '4': 0.15406798199299374, '5': 0.14413523163285694, '6': 0.11782265139058713, '7': 0.0841566264228886, '8': 0.052522903805856246, '9': 0.02864244083520041, '10': 0.013648100303954374, '11': 0.005682445399665142, '12': 0.0020672796154051765}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.807, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.308, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.6323} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SD 5 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SD 5 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0164, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.518, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6323, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 5 - 4 SF. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 5 - 4 SF. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SD wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: SD wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SD wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Luis Campusano: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Hays: H current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=4 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Samad Taylor: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Jackson Merrill: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Rafael Devers: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Turner Hill: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Osleivis Basabe: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Drew Cavanaugh: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Drew Gilbert: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jung Hoo Lee: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.405830143958976 | 4.973251099527946 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 4 | 0.505 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 5 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| SF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SD | batting | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | SD | pitching | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | SF | batting | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | SF | pitching | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | SD | batting | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 2 | |||||||
| simulation | SD | pitching | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 9.0 | 4 | 38 | 165 | |||||||||
| simulation | SF | batting | 34 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | SF | pitching | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 9.0 | 5 | 39 | 176 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SD | 2B | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | DH | Luis Campusano | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | RF | Austin Hays | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | 1B | Jake Cronenworth | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | LF | Samad Taylor | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SD | SS | Xander Bogaerts | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | CF | Jackson Merrill | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | 3B | Manny Machado | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | C | Freddy Fermin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | SF | DH | Rafael Devers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | LF | Turner Hill | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | 1B | Bryce Eldridge | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | 2B | Osleivis Basabe | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SF | 3B | Shay Whitcomb | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | SF | C | Drew Cavanaugh | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SF | CF | Drew Gilbert | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | RF | Jung Hoo Lee | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | SS | Christian Koss | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | SD | 1 | 2B | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SD | 2 | SS | Xander Bogaerts | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SD | 3 | 3B | Manny Machado | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | SD | 4 | DH | Luis Campusano | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SD | 5 | CF | Jackson Merrill | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SD | 6 | RF | Austin Hays | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SD | 7 | 1B | Jake Cronenworth | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SD | 8 | LF | Samad Taylor | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 |
| simulation | SD | 9 | C | Freddy Fermin | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SF | 1 | CF | Drew Gilbert | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 2 | DH | Rafael Devers | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | SF | 3 | 1B | Bryce Eldridge | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SF | 4 | LF | Turner Hill | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SF | 5 | RF | Jung Hoo Lee | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SF | 6 | 2B | Osleivis Basabe | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | SF | 7 | C | Drew Cavanaugh | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 8 | 3B | Shay Whitcomb | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 9 | SS | Christian Koss | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SD | 1 | Michael King | Starter | 6.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 3.00 | 1.17 |
| current | SD | 2 | Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.82 | 1.07 |
| current | SD | 3 | Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.76 | 0.98 |
| current | SD | 4 | Mason Miller | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.16 | 0.87 |
| current | SF | 1 | Cesar Perdomo | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.60 | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| current | SF | 2 | Carson Seymour | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 5.62 | 1.67 |
| current | SF | 3 | Dylan Smith | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.24 | 1.41 |
| current | SF | 4 | Trent Harris | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.81 | 1.25 |
| current | SF | 5 | Jason Foley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.19 | 1.55 |
| current | SF | 6 | Reiver Sanmartin | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.35 | 1.26 |
| simulation | SD | 1 | Michael King | Starter | 6.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 25 | 108 | 4.50 | 3.00 | 1.17 |
| simulation | SD | 2 | Mason Miller | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 1.16 | 0.87 |
| simulation | SD | 3 | Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 9.00 | 2.82 | 1.07 |
| simulation | SD | 4 | Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 1.76 | 0.98 |
| simulation | SF | 1 | Cesar Perdomo | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 23 | 94 | 3.60 | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| simulation | SF | 2 | Dylan Smith | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 9.00 | 3.24 | 1.41 |
| simulation | SF | 3 | Trent Harris | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.81 | 1.25 |
| simulation | SF | 4 | Carson Seymour | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 18.00 | 5.62 | 1.67 |
| simulation | SF | 5 | Jason Foley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 4.19 | 1.55 |
| simulation | SF | 6 | Reiver Sanmartin | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.00 | 4.35 | 1.26 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | Michael King | Starter | 6.0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 108 |
| SD | Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 24 |
| SD | Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| SD | Mason Miller | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| SF | Cesar Perdomo | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 94 |
| SF | Carson Seymour | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 32 |
| SF | Dylan Smith | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 21 |
| SF | Trent Harris | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| SF | Jason Foley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| SF | Reiver Sanmartin | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260912_SEA@OAK
20260912_SEA@OAK.json • 2026-09-12
SEA 6 - OAK 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=39; H: current=8, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tommy White: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jonah Heim: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; 2B: current=2, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=14). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; J.P. Crawford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Taylor Ward: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Cole Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Arroyo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Randy Arozarena: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting walks match SEA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting home runs match SEA pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting hits match SEA pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:OAK PA=42 matches SEA BF=42. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting walks match OAK pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting home runs match OAK pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting hits match OAK pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 14. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SEA PA=39 matches OAK BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.562 -> 0.558 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.562242, 'sample_size': 639, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.554, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.558121, 'published_confidence': 0.524974, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | OAK current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SEA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.525. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.525. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.475. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.517/0.701. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 9, OAK 12. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 6 - OAK 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-09-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'OAK'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 4, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5058039999999999, 'artifact': '20260911_SEA@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260906', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5442, 'artifact': '20260906_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260905', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260905_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.548498, 'artifact': '20260904_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260903', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.637251, 'artifact': '20260903_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SEA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SEA', 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 6 - 5 OAK', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 6 - 5 OAK', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0215, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.586, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4152, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_SEA@OAK. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@OAK. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0404, 'away_run_delta': -0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01753918460570821}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017137125593205706}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016951413224470278}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01656282797294529}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016347029257228918}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03297267955111452, '1': 0.05373051361018157, '2': 0.07887033662720105, '3': 0.10428752223090881, '4': 0.12421583301900985, '5': 0.13327463920141988, '6': 0.12880835296700105, '7': 0.11214153358061411, '8': 0.08794576016774454, '9': 0.06212827214539121, '10': 0.03953571490386794, '11': 0.022662920189535016, '12': 0.011702215585343071, '13': 0.005443099487400116, '14': 0.0022806067332673497}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03176244370763886, '1': 0.051809672446337884, '2': 0.07627708947864976, '3': 0.10135932466927357, '4': 0.12156810074912627, '5': 0.13160181645062258, '6': 0.12858504585636973, '7': 0.1133979942271499, '8': 0.09026234455385547, '9': 0.06484764004345074, '10': 0.042050200392294956, '11': 0.024610945137217996, '12': 0.013000942670617292, '13': 0.006198801401680984, '14': 0.0026676382157140533}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8412, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.376, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4152} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 6 - 5 OAK', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 6 - 5 OAK', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0215, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.586, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4152, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 178. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 178. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | current:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 6 - 5 OAK. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 6 - 5 OAK. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.525. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: SEA wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | OAK wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SEA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting walks match SEA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting home runs match SEA pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting hits match SEA pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:OAK PA=42 matches SEA BF=42. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting walks match OAK pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting home runs match OAK pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting hits match OAK pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 14. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SEA PA=39 matches OAK BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.562 -> 0.558 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.562242, 'sample_size': 639, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.554, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.558121, 'published_confidence': 0.524974, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | OAK current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SEA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.525. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.525. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.475. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.517/0.701. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 9, OAK 12. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 6 - OAK 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-09-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'OAK'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 4, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5058039999999999, 'artifact': '20260911_SEA@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260906', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5442, 'artifact': '20260906_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260905', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260905_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.548498, 'artifact': '20260904_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260903', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.637251, 'artifact': '20260903_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SEA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SEA', 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 6 - 5 OAK', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 6 - 5 OAK', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0215, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.586, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4152, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_SEA@OAK. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@OAK. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0404, 'away_run_delta': -0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01753918460570821}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017137125593205706}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016951413224470278}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01656282797294529}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016347029257228918}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03297267955111452, '1': 0.05373051361018157, '2': 0.07887033662720105, '3': 0.10428752223090881, '4': 0.12421583301900985, '5': 0.13327463920141988, '6': 0.12880835296700105, '7': 0.11214153358061411, '8': 0.08794576016774454, '9': 0.06212827214539121, '10': 0.03953571490386794, '11': 0.022662920189535016, '12': 0.011702215585343071, '13': 0.005443099487400116, '14': 0.0022806067332673497}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03176244370763886, '1': 0.051809672446337884, '2': 0.07627708947864976, '3': 0.10135932466927357, '4': 0.12156810074912627, '5': 0.13160181645062258, '6': 0.12858504585636973, '7': 0.1133979942271499, '8': 0.09026234455385547, '9': 0.06484764004345074, '10': 0.042050200392294956, '11': 0.024610945137217996, '12': 0.013000942670617292, '13': 0.006198801401680984, '14': 0.0026676382157140533}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8412, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.376, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4152} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 6 - 5 OAK', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 6 - 5 OAK', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0215, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.586, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4152, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 178. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 178. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | current:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 6 - 5 OAK. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 6 - 5 OAK. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.525. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: SEA wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | OAK wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SEA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=39; H: current=8, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tommy White: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jonah Heim: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; 2B: current=2, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=14). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; J.P. Crawford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Taylor Ward: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Cole Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Arroyo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Randy Arozarena: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 5.542555763145537 | 4.584494251729947 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 6 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 6 | 5 | 0.525 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 6 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 6 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 6 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 6 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SEA | batting | 32 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | SEA | pitching | 12 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | OAK | batting | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | OAK | pitching | 9 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | SEA | batting | 36 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | SEA | pitching | 12 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 9.0 | 5 | 42 | 166 | |||||||||
| simulation | OAK | batting | 39 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | OAK | pitching | 9 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 9.0 | 6 | 39 | 178 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SEA | DH | Dominic Canzone | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | C | Cal Raleigh | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | 3B | J.P. Crawford | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SEA | RF | Taylor Ward | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SEA | SS | Cole Young | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SEA | 2B | Michael Arroyo | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SEA | LF | Randy Arozarena | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | CF | Julio Rodríguez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | 1B | Josh Naylor | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | CF | Henry Bolte | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | LF | Carlos Cortes | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | OAK | 1B | Tommy White | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | DH | Max Muncy | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | OAK | SS | Alika Williams | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | OAK | RF | Lawrence Butler | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | 3B | Zack Gelof | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | C | Jonah Heim | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | OAK | 2B | Jeff McNeil | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | SEA | 1 | LF | Randy Arozarena | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SEA | 2 | DH | Dominic Canzone | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | SEA | 3 | CF | Julio Rodríguez | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | SEA | 4 | C | Cal Raleigh | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SEA | 5 | 1B | Josh Naylor | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SEA | 6 | 3B | J.P. Crawford | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SEA | 7 | RF | Taylor Ward | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | SEA | 8 | SS | Cole Young | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SEA | 9 | 2B | Michael Arroyo | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | OAK | 1 | CF | Henry Bolte | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | OAK | 2 | 2B | Jeff McNeil | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 |
| simulation | OAK | 3 | 3B | Zack Gelof | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | OAK | 4 | RF | Lawrence Butler | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | OAK | 5 | LF | Carlos Cortes | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 |
| simulation | OAK | 6 | 1B | Tommy White | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | OAK | 7 | DH | Max Muncy | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | OAK | 8 | SS | Alika Williams | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | OAK | 9 | C | Jonah Heim | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SEA | 1 | Bryan Woo | Starter | 5.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.18 | 4.03 | 1.06 |
| current | SEA | 2 | Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.64 | 1.12 |
| current | SEA | 4 | Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 3.90 | 1.46 |
| current | SEA | 5 | José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.75 | 1.42 |
| current | OAK | 1 | Gage Jump | Starter | 4.1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8.31 | 5.12 | 1.49 |
| current | OAK | 2 | Luis Medina | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.07 | 1.32 |
| current | OAK | 3 | Elvis Alvarado | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.04 | 1.24 |
| current | OAK | 4 | Hogan Harris | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.34 | 1.44 |
| current | OAK | 5 | Scott Blewett | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 2.45 | 1.26 |
| simulation | SEA | 1 | Bryan Woo | Starter | 5.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 23 | 94 | 3.18 | 4.03 | 1.06 |
| simulation | SEA | 2 | Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 9.00 | 3.64 | 1.12 |
| simulation | SEA | 3 | José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 0.00 | 3.75 | 1.42 |
| simulation | SEA | 4 | Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 18.00 | 3.90 | 1.46 |
| simulation | OAK | 1 | Gage Jump | Starter | 4.1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 20 | 86 | 8.31 | 5.12 | 1.49 |
| simulation | OAK | 2 | Elvis Alvarado | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 4.04 | 1.24 |
| simulation | OAK | 3 | Hogan Harris | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 3.34 | 1.44 |
| simulation | OAK | 4 | Luis Medina | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 0.00 | 3.07 | 1.32 |
| simulation | OAK | 5 | Scott Blewett | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 6.75 | 2.45 | 1.26 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Bryan Woo | Starter | 5.2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 94 |
| SEA | Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 |
| SEA | Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 30 |
| SEA | José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 23 |
| OAK | Gage Jump | Starter | 4.1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 86 |
| OAK | Luis Medina | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 32 |
| OAK | Elvis Alvarado | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| OAK | Hogan Harris | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| OAK | Scott Blewett | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 31 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260912_TEX@ARI
20260912_TEX@ARI.json • 2026-09-12
TEX 4 - ARI 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=6, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Ildemaro Vargas: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Corbin Carroll: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2; Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Jordan Lawlar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=4, sim=6). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Joc Pederson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Evan Carter: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting walks match TEX pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting home runs match TEX pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting hits match TEX pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ARI PA=37 matches TEX BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting walks match ARI pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting hits match ARI pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TEX PA=37 matches ARI BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.616 -> 0.585 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.615883, 'sample_size': 379, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5541, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.584991, 'published_confidence': 0.558943, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ARI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TEX current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.441. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.559. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.559. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.517/0.701. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 7, ARI 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 4 - ARI 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for ARI; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.568012, 'artifact': '20260911_TEX@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ARI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'output_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ARI', 'final_score_winner': 'ARI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0711, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.216, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3677, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_TEX@ARI. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@ARI. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.25, 'home_run_delta': 0.0312, 'away_run_delta': -0.0312, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022509061214167174}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022030792512203686}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021902807990627913}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0214374208539827}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020492260298540694}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03976040059345447, '1': 0.06444023790685575, '2': 0.09306121930653795, '3': 0.1197527681960092, '4': 0.13731171888879767, '5': 0.14029263287638766, '6': 0.12772248133836328, '7': 0.10361080508587542, '8': 0.07489416254593917, '9': 0.04823875706391095, '10': 0.02768531497401748, '11': 0.01415820016834928, '12': 0.006451665566817519, '13': 0.002619635488684202}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05967389984153099, '1': 0.09521291959296325, '2': 0.13119664186726296, '3': 0.15612229624292928, '4': 0.1604436437799267, '5': 0.14239524191597544, '6': 0.10913996594007887, '7': 0.07224162809317429, '8': 0.04129586914522012, '9': 0.020386424916602953, '10': 0.008691423419434812, '11': 0.0032000452449002076}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.4493, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.216, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3677} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0711, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.216, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3677, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 4 - 5 ARI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 4 - 5 ARI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=ARI, simulation=ARI, published=ARI. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.559. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ARI wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: ARI wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ARI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TEX wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting walks match TEX pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting home runs match TEX pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting hits match TEX pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ARI PA=37 matches TEX BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting walks match ARI pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting hits match ARI pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TEX PA=37 matches ARI BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.616 -> 0.585 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.615883, 'sample_size': 379, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5541, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.584991, 'published_confidence': 0.558943, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ARI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TEX current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.441. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.559. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.559. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.517/0.701. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 7, ARI 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 4 - ARI 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for ARI; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260911', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.568012, 'artifact': '20260911_TEX@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ARI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'output_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ARI', 'final_score_winner': 'ARI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0711, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.216, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3677, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-12. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260912_TEX@ARI. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@ARI. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.25, 'home_run_delta': 0.0312, 'away_run_delta': -0.0312, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022509061214167174}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022030792512203686}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021902807990627913}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0214374208539827}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020492260298540694}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03976040059345447, '1': 0.06444023790685575, '2': 0.09306121930653795, '3': 0.1197527681960092, '4': 0.13731171888879767, '5': 0.14029263287638766, '6': 0.12772248133836328, '7': 0.10361080508587542, '8': 0.07489416254593917, '9': 0.04823875706391095, '10': 0.02768531497401748, '11': 0.01415820016834928, '12': 0.006451665566817519, '13': 0.002619635488684202}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05967389984153099, '1': 0.09521291959296325, '2': 0.13119664186726296, '3': 0.15612229624292928, '4': 0.1604436437799267, '5': 0.14239524191597544, '6': 0.10913996594007887, '7': 0.07224162809317429, '8': 0.04129586914522012, '9': 0.020386424916602953, '10': 0.008691423419434812, '11': 0.0032000452449002076}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.4493, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.216, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3677} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0711, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.216, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3677, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 4 - 5 ARI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 4 - 5 ARI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=ARI, simulation=ARI, published=ARI. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.559. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ARI wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: ARI wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ARI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TEX wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=6, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Ildemaro Vargas: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Corbin Carroll: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2; Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Jordan Lawlar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=4, sim=6). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Joc Pederson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Evan Carter: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.170590076542663 | 4.6950057713246265 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.559 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| ARI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TEX | batting | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | TEX | pitching | 7 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 8.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | ARI | batting | 34 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | ARI | pitching | 7 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | TEX | batting | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | |||||||
| simulation | TEX | pitching | 7 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 8.0 | 5 | 37 | 168 | |||||||||
| simulation | ARI | batting | 31 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | ARI | pitching | 7 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 9.0 | 4 | 37 | 149 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TEX | 3B | Ezequiel Duran | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | LF | Wyatt Langford | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | DH | Joc Pederson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | SS | Corey Seager | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | RF | Brandon Nimmo | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | 2B | Nicky Lopez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TEX | 1B | Jake Burger | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TEX | CF | Evan Carter | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | TEX | C | Elias Díaz | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ARI | DH | Ketel Marte | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | C | Gabriel Moreno | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | SS | Geraldo Perdomo | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | 2B | Ildemaro Vargas | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | 3B | Nolan Arenado | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | RF | Corbin Carroll | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | LF | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | CF | Jordan Lawlar | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | ARI | 1B | Tim Tawa | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | TEX | 1 | DH | Joc Pederson | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TEX | 2 | SS | Corey Seager | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TEX | 3 | 3B | Ezequiel Duran | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TEX | 4 | RF | Brandon Nimmo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 |
| simulation | TEX | 5 | LF | Wyatt Langford | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TEX | 6 | 1B | Jake Burger | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | TEX | 7 | CF | Evan Carter | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TEX | 8 | 2B | Nicky Lopez | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TEX | 9 | C | Elias Díaz | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ARI | 1 | SS | Geraldo Perdomo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ARI | 2 | RF | Corbin Carroll | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | ARI | 3 | C | Gabriel Moreno | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | ARI | 4 | DH | Ketel Marte | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | ARI | 5 | 3B | Nolan Arenado | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | ARI | 6 | 2B | Ildemaro Vargas | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ARI | 7 | LF | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ARI | 8 | 1B | Tim Tawa | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ARI | 9 | CF | Jordan Lawlar | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TEX | 1 | Kumar Rocker | Starter | 4.2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.64 | 4.61 | 1.44 |
| current | TEX | 2 | Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 1.27 |
| current | TEX | 3 | Jacob Latz | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.42 | 0.71 |
| current | TEX | 4 | Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.68 | 1.17 |
| current | ARI | 1 | Brandon Pfaadt | Starter | 6.1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.68 | 3.53 | 1.15 |
| current | ARI | 2 | Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.74 | 0.68 |
| current | ARI | 3 | Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.54 | 0.98 |
| current | ARI | 4 | Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.80 | 1.11 |
| simulation | TEX | 1 | Kumar Rocker | Starter | 4.2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 108 | 9.64 | 4.61 | 1.44 |
| simulation | TEX | 2 | Jacob Latz | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 1.42 | 0.71 |
| simulation | TEX | 3 | Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 2.68 | 1.17 |
| simulation | TEX | 4 | Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 1.27 |
| simulation | ARI | 1 | Brandon Pfaadt | Starter | 6.1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 112 | 5.68 | 3.53 | 1.15 |
| simulation | ARI | 2 | Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 1.74 | 0.68 |
| simulation | ARI | 3 | Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 2.54 | 0.98 |
| simulation | ARI | 4 | Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 2.80 | 1.11 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | Kumar Rocker | Starter | 4.2 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 108 |
| TEX | Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 26 |
| TEX | Jacob Latz | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| TEX | Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 21 |
| ARI | Brandon Pfaadt | Starter | 6.1 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 112 |
| ARI | Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| ARI | Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| ARI | Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |