MLB JSON Audit Report

20260907_ARI@KC

20260907_ARI@KC.json • 2026-09-07

ARI 3 - KC 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ketel Marte: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Ildemaro Vargas: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, SF current=0 box=1; Corbin Carroll: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jordan Lawlar: SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Vinnie Pasquantino: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match KC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=35 matches KC BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match ARI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=36 matches ARI BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.701 -> 0.627 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.701405, 'sample_size': 349, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.553, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.627202, 'published_confidence': 0.579623, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.571/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 7, KC 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 3 - KC 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: KC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for KC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.579623, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_ARI@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@KC.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.024796298914922542}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023975247411384248}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023912389140402546}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023120605530909725}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022829969867408397}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.036093479551014086, '1': 0.060224654613772056, '2': 0.08922251605273478, '3': 0.11736245780474185, '4': 0.1370687674624764, '5': 0.14213544744288809, '6': 0.1308642065231323, '7': 0.10697786672137474, '8': 0.07764644418985628, '9': 0.050038443571601005, '10': 0.028631268849733545, '11': 0.014545611347400062, '12': 0.00656111946086078, '13': 0.002627716408413938}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06839984491955205, '1': 0.11109171525129279, '2': 0.15178357836832293, '3': 0.1744554181312584, '4': 0.1686788752750634, '5': 0.1371998039480956, '6': 0.09387778731128459, '7': 0.05403669247835809, '8': 0.026165632176479856, '9': 0.0106583570604965, '10': 0.003652295079795883}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.7292, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.204, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4026}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 3 - 5 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 3 - 5 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0608, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.204, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'KC', 'model_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'KC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'KC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.4026, 'winner': 'KC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 3 - 5 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 3 - 5 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: KC wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=KC, simulation=KC, published=KC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): KC wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: KC wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: KC wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match KC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=35 matches KC BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match ARI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=36 matches ARI BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.701 -> 0.627 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.701405, 'sample_size': 349, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.553, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.627202, 'published_confidence': 0.579623, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.571/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 7, KC 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 3 - KC 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: KC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for KC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.579623, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_ARI@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@KC.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.024796298914922542}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023975247411384248}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023912389140402546}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023120605530909725}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022829969867408397}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.036093479551014086, '1': 0.060224654613772056, '2': 0.08922251605273478, '3': 0.11736245780474185, '4': 0.1370687674624764, '5': 0.14213544744288809, '6': 0.1308642065231323, '7': 0.10697786672137474, '8': 0.07764644418985628, '9': 0.050038443571601005, '10': 0.028631268849733545, '11': 0.014545611347400062, '12': 0.00656111946086078, '13': 0.002627716408413938}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06839984491955205, '1': 0.11109171525129279, '2': 0.15178357836832293, '3': 0.1744554181312584, '4': 0.1686788752750634, '5': 0.1371998039480956, '6': 0.09387778731128459, '7': 0.05403669247835809, '8': 0.026165632176479856, '9': 0.0106583570604965, '10': 0.003652295079795883}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.7292, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.204, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4026}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 3 - 5 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 3 - 5 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0608, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.204, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'KC', 'model_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'KC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'KC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.4026, 'winner': 'KC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 3 - 5 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 3 - 5 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: KC wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=KC, simulation=KC, published=KC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): KC wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: KC wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: KC wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ketel Marte: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Ildemaro Vargas: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, SF current=0 box=1; Corbin Carroll: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jordan Lawlar: SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Vinnie Pasquantino: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.384379104758524	5.080996603961905		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	5	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	3	7
KC	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	5	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ARI	batting	36	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		9			1		5	2	7					8.0	5	0	0
current	KC	batting	35	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		7			0		3	1	7					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	ARI	batting	33	7	2	0	0	3	3	1	7	1	0
simulation	ARI	pitching		9			1		5	2	7					8.0	5	36	160
simulation	KC	batting	33	9	3	0	1	5	5	2	7	0	1
simulation	KC	pitching		7			0		3	1	7					9.0	3	35	146

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	ARI		DH	Ketel Marte	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		C	Gabriel Moreno	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	ARI		2B	Ildemaro Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		3B	Nolan Arenado	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		RF	Corbin Carroll	0	5	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.200
current	ARI		SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		LF	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		CF	Jordan Lawlar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		1B	Tim Tawa	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	KC		C	Carter Jensen	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		RF	Jac Caglianone	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		DH	Salvador Perez	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	KC		1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	KC		3B	Nick Loftin	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	KC		2B	Michael Massey	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	KC		CF	Kyle Isbel	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	1	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	2	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	ARI	3	C	Gabriel Moreno	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	ARI	4	DH	Ketel Marte	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	5	3B	Nolan Arenado	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	6	2B	Ildemaro Vargas	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	7	LF	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	8	1B	Tim Tawa	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	9	CF	Jordan Lawlar	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	KC	1	C	Carter Jensen	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	KC	3	RF	Jac Caglianone	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	KC	4	DH	Salvador Perez	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	5	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	KC	6	3B	Nick Loftin	4	4	3	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	KC	7	2B	Michael Massey	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	8	LF	Isaac Collins	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	9	CF	Kyle Isbel	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ARI	1	Jose Cabrera	Starter	4.2	3	2	2	1	5	1	0	0	3.86	4.88	1.33
current	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.74	0.68
current	ARI	3	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	18.00	2.80	1.11
current	ARI	4	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00	2.54	0.98
current	KC	1	Noah Cameron	Starter	6.0	2	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	1.50	4.08	1.22
current	KC	2	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	4	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	18.00	3.80	1.20
current	KC	3	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.19	1.16
current	KC	4	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.27	1.23
simulation	ARI	1	Jose Cabrera	Starter	4.2	3	2	2	1	5	1	19	84	3.86	4.88	1.33
simulation	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	0	6	35	0.00	1.74	0.68
simulation	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	0	5	19	9.00	2.54	0.98
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	6	22	18.00	2.80	1.11
simulation	KC	1	Noah Cameron	Starter	6.0	2	1	1	1	4	0	21	92	1.50	4.08	1.22
simulation	KC	2	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	4.27	1.23
simulation	KC	3	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	2.19	1.16
simulation	KC	4	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	4	2	2	0	0	0	7	25	18.00	3.80	1.20

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ARI	Jose Cabrera	Starter	4.2	2	3	1	5	19	84
ARI	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	1.1	0	1	1	0	6	35
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	3	0	0	6	22
ARI	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	1	2	0	2	5	19
KC	Noah Cameron	Starter	6.0	1	2	1	4	21	92
KC	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	4	0	0	7	25
KC	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
KC	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260907_ATL@PHI

20260907_ATL@PHI.json • 2026-09-07

ATL 3 - PHI 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (HR: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ronald Acuña Jr.: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Lane Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Drake Baldwin: AB current=6 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ha-Seong Kim: SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Luis Arraez: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; J.T. Realmuto: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match PHI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=35 matches PHI BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=30 matches ATL BF=30.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.535 -> 0.544 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.534761, 'sample_size': 334, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5539, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.544331, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.754/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 8, PHI 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 3 - PHI 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260906', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.550646, 'artifact': '20260906_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260905', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.537979, 'artifact': '20260905_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5599339999999999, 'artifact': '20260904_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1125, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.03, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.39, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_ATL@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@PHI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0173, 'away_run_delta': 0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0340912473441638}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03155680192017258}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.031077585947288856}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03087801992773876}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030598623509534753}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07576952819658792, '1': 0.12229745052577544, '2': 0.16400206436731454, '3': 0.18272177961068692, '4': 0.1691376952994651, '5': 0.13007672416401203, '6': 0.08311279057536743, '7': 0.0441209878946299, '8': 0.01945950022427745, '9': 0.0071306189142583114, '10': 0.0021708602276249837}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07956068927924816, '1': 0.12801836622042634, '2': 0.1700814539651693, '3': 0.1865746240913357, '4': 0.1689892687862853, '5': 0.12637949461235076, '6': 0.07803780365952655, '7': 0.03978729348670852, '8': 0.016749224089926868, '9': 0.005821781809022664}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6538, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.1, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.39}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1125, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.03, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.39, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 3 - 4 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 3 - 4 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match PHI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=35 matches PHI BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=30 matches ATL BF=30.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.535 -> 0.544 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.534761, 'sample_size': 334, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5539, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.544331, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.754/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 8, PHI 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 3 - PHI 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260906', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.550646, 'artifact': '20260906_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260905', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.537979, 'artifact': '20260905_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5599339999999999, 'artifact': '20260904_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1125, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.03, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.39, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_ATL@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@PHI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0173, 'away_run_delta': 0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0340912473441638}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03155680192017258}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.031077585947288856}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03087801992773876}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030598623509534753}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07576952819658792, '1': 0.12229745052577544, '2': 0.16400206436731454, '3': 0.18272177961068692, '4': 0.1691376952994651, '5': 0.13007672416401203, '6': 0.08311279057536743, '7': 0.0441209878946299, '8': 0.01945950022427745, '9': 0.0071306189142583114, '10': 0.0021708602276249837}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07956068927924816, '1': 0.12801836622042634, '2': 0.1700814539651693, '3': 0.1865746240913357, '4': 0.1689892687862853, '5': 0.12637949461235076, '6': 0.07803780365952655, '7': 0.03978729348670852, '8': 0.016749224089926868, '9': 0.005821781809022664}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6538, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.1, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.39}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1125, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.03, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.39, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 3 - 4 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 3 - 4 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (HR: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ronald Acuña Jr.: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Lane Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Drake Baldwin: AB current=6 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ha-Seong Kim: SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Luis Arraez: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; J.T. Realmuto: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.6087731717341067	5.641923515322539		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	3	8
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	4	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	38	9	2	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		5			0		4	1	7					8.0	4	0	0
current	PHI	batting	35	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		8			1		3	0	5					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	35	8	2	0	1	3	3	0	5	0	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		5			1		4	1	7					8.0	4	30	131
simulation	PHI	batting	29	5	2	0	1	4	4	1	7	0	0
simulation	PHI	pitching		8			1		3	0	5					9.0	3	35	141

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	ATL		DH	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		RF	Lane Thomas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	ATL		C	Drake Baldwin	0	6	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.167
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	5	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	ATL		SS	Ha-Seong Kim	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		LF	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	PHI		RF	Bryce Harper	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	PHI		1B	Alec Bohm	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	PHI		3B	Bryson Stott	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	PHI		LF	Brandon Marsh	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	0	5	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	PHI		2B	Luis Arraez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	PHI		C	J.T. Realmuto	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	PHI		CF	Justin Crawford	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	1	DH	Ronald Acuña Jr.	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	ATL	2	C	Drake Baldwin	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	ATL	3	2B	Ozzie Albies	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	ATL	4	1B	Matt Olson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	5	RF	Lane Thomas	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	ATL	6	CF	Michael Harris II	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	7	LF	Mauricio Dubón	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	8	3B	Austin Riley	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	ATL	9	SS	Ha-Seong Kim	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	PHI	1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	PHI	2	SS	Trea Turner	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0.250
simulation	PHI	3	RF	Bryce Harper	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	PHI	4	2B	Luis Arraez	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	PHI	5	1B	Alec Bohm	3	3	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0.333
simulation	PHI	6	3B	Bryson Stott	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	7	LF	Brandon Marsh	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	PHI	8	C	J.T. Realmuto	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	PHI	9	CF	Justin Crawford	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Grant Holmes	Starter	4.2	2	2	2	1	6	0	0	0	3.86	3.77	1.34
current	ATL	4	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.32	0.82
current	ATL	5	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.2	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	10.80	2.72	1.15
current	PHI	1	Jesús Luzardo	Starter	6.1	5	2	2	0	5	1	0	0	2.84	3.02	1.12
current	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.38	0.99
current	PHI	3	Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.06	0.98
current	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13.50	4.12	1.30
simulation	ATL	1	Grant Holmes	Starter	4.2	2	2	2	1	6	0	17	80	3.86	3.77	1.34
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.2	2	2	2	0	0	0	7	27	10.80	2.72	1.15
simulation	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	1	6	24	0.00	2.32	0.82
simulation	PHI	1	Jesús Luzardo	Starter	6.1	5	2	2	0	5	1	24	98	2.84	3.02	1.12
simulation	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.38	0.99
simulation	PHI	3	Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	3.06	0.98
simulation	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	0	4	14	13.50	4.12	1.30

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Grant Holmes	Starter	4.2	2	2	1	6	17	80
ATL	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.2	0	1	0	1	6	24
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.2	2	2	0	0	7	27
PHI	Jesús Luzardo	Starter	6.1	2	5	0	5	24	98
PHI	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
PHI	Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
PHI	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	2	0	0	4	14

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260907_CHC@MIL

20260907_CHC@MIL.json • 2026-09-07

CHC 5 - MIL 7

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: H current=1 box=0; Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Tyrone Taylor: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; BJ Murray Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Matt Shaw: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carson Kelly: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; H: current=9, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: William Contreras: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Joey Ortiz: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match MIL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=36 matches MIL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match CHC pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=39 matches CHC BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.524 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 398, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5377, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5239, 'published_confidence': 0.506818, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.493.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.507.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.507.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.571/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 8, MIL 12.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 5 - MIL 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'CHC', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-09-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-09-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 7, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 4, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 2, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260903', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.533686, 'artifact': '20260903_MIL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260902', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5396270000000001, 'artifact': '20260902_MIL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.698612, 'artifact': '20260901_MIL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260831', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 14, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260831_MIL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260628', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260628_CHC@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 7 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 7 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0785, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.346, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1133, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_CHC@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@MIL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -14.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01761534432505743}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017494199794390396}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017305559625265872}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017186545550942556}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016109205541609713}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0281787986523683, '1': 0.04734319217480396, '2': 0.0716021688431654, '3': 0.09748288950079621, '4': 0.11947146421769282, '5': 0.13180550681520795, '6': 0.13089905185368073, '7': 0.11702348370811154, '8': 0.09417662460305636, '9': 0.06822551071026271, '10': 0.04449221694955567, '11': 0.02611889945136033, '12': 0.013802548350916707, '13': 0.006565945252147213, '14': 0.0028116989168742047}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.029285152260871552, '1': 0.04915350713520482, '2': 0.07412061805240833, '3': 0.10041556841879996, '4': 0.12221951821933288, '5': 0.13364649740889992, '6': 0.1312961805877228, '7': 0.11588416648734888, '8': 0.09189113326985521, '9': 0.06546370954507161, '10': 0.04189914032838918, '11': 0.024092790871117323, '12': 0.012446481756929407, '13': 0.005776750363315139, '14': 0.0024087852947330467}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.3229, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.276, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1133}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 7 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 7 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0785, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.346, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1133, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 5 - 7 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 5 - 7 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 7-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.507.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 5-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-7, final 5-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 12.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 7-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match MIL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=36 matches MIL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match CHC pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=39 matches CHC BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.524 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 398, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5377, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5239, 'published_confidence': 0.506818, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.493.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.507.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.507.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.571/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 8, MIL 12.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 5 - MIL 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'CHC', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-09-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-09-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 7, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 4, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 2, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260903', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.533686, 'artifact': '20260903_MIL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260902', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5396270000000001, 'artifact': '20260902_MIL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.698612, 'artifact': '20260901_MIL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260831', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 14, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260831_MIL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260628', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260628_CHC@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 7 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 7 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0785, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.346, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1133, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_CHC@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@MIL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -14.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01761534432505743}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017494199794390396}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017305559625265872}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017186545550942556}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016109205541609713}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0281787986523683, '1': 0.04734319217480396, '2': 0.0716021688431654, '3': 0.09748288950079621, '4': 0.11947146421769282, '5': 0.13180550681520795, '6': 0.13089905185368073, '7': 0.11702348370811154, '8': 0.09417662460305636, '9': 0.06822551071026271, '10': 0.04449221694955567, '11': 0.02611889945136033, '12': 0.013802548350916707, '13': 0.006565945252147213, '14': 0.0028116989168742047}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.029285152260871552, '1': 0.04915350713520482, '2': 0.07412061805240833, '3': 0.10041556841879996, '4': 0.12221951821933288, '5': 0.13364649740889992, '6': 0.1312961805877228, '7': 0.11588416648734888, '8': 0.09189113326985521, '9': 0.06546370954507161, '10': 0.04189914032838918, '11': 0.024092790871117323, '12': 0.012446481756929407, '13': 0.005776750363315139, '14': 0.0024087852947330467}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.3229, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.276, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1133}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 7 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 7 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0785, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.346, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1133, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 5 - 7 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 5 - 7 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 7-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.507.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 5-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-7, final 5-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 12.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 7-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: H current=1 box=0; Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Tyrone Taylor: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; BJ Murray Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Matt Shaw: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carson Kelly: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; H: current=9, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: William Contreras: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Joey Ortiz: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.480735857593602	4.525667720881253		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	6	0.507	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	7		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	7		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	7		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	7		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	5	8
MIL	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	3	0	7	12

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHC	batting	33	8	2	0	1	5	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		12			2		7	3	6					8.0	7	0	0
current	MIL	batting	34	9	2	0	1	5	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		8			1		5	1	6					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	CHC	batting	35	8	3	0	1	5	5	1	6	0	0
simulation	CHC	pitching		12			2		7	3	6					8.0	7	39	169
simulation	MIL	batting	36	12	3	1	2	7	7	3	6	0	0
simulation	MIL	pitching		8			1		5	1	6					9.0	5	36	136

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CHC		DH	Seiya Suzuki	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		SS	Nico Hoerner	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		3B	Alex Bregman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		LF	Tyrone Taylor	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	CHC		1B	BJ Murray Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHC		RF	Matt Shaw	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	CHC		C	Carson Kelly	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		2B	Pedro Ramirez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIL		C	William Contreras	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	MIL		2B	Brice Turang	0	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	MIL		RF	Luis Lara	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	MIL		1B	Andrew Vaughn	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		3B	Joey Ortiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIL		SS	Cooper Pratt	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	MIL		DH	Christian Yelich	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	CHC	1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	2	DH	Seiya Suzuki	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHC	3	3B	Alex Bregman	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHC	4	LF	Tyrone Taylor	4	4	3	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0.750
simulation	CHC	5	SS	Nico Hoerner	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	6	RF	Matt Shaw	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CHC	7	C	Carson Kelly	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CHC	8	1B	BJ Murray Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	9	2B	Pedro Ramirez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIL	1	LF	Jackson Chourio	5	5	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.600
simulation	MIL	2	2B	Brice Turang	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIL	3	C	William Contreras	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.400
simulation	MIL	4	1B	Andrew Vaughn	4	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	MIL	5	DH	Christian Yelich	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	6	RF	Luis Lara	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	MIL	7	SS	Cooper Pratt	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIL	8	CF	Garrett Mitchell	4	4	3	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.750
simulation	MIL	9	3B	Joey Ortiz	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHC	1	Matthew Boyd	Starter	5.2	7	4	4	2	4	1	0	0	6.35	4.05	1.23
current	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.15	1.23
current	CHC	3	Trent Thornton	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.35	1.20
current	CHC	4	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	5	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	81.00	4.06	1.24
current	MIL	1	Robert Gasser	Starter	5.0	5	4	4	0	5	1	0	0	7.20	4.57	1.29
current	MIL	2	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.19	1.35
current	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	1.95	0.99
current	MIL	5	Trevor Megill	Closer	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.49	0.79
simulation	CHC	1	Matthew Boyd	Starter	5.2	7	4	4	2	4	1	26	112	6.35	4.05	1.23
simulation	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	21	0.00	3.15	1.23
simulation	CHC	3	Trent Thornton	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.35	1.20
simulation	CHC	4	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	5	3	3	1	1	1	7	23	81.00	4.06	1.24
simulation	MIL	1	Robert Gasser	Starter	5.0	5	4	4	0	5	1	20	78	7.20	4.57	1.29
simulation	MIL	2	Trevor Megill	Closer	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	19	0.00	1.49	0.79
simulation	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	0	6	23	9.00	1.95	0.99
simulation	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	3.19	1.35

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHC	Matthew Boyd	Starter	5.2	4	7	2	4	26	112
CHC	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	21
CHC	Trent Thornton	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
CHC	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	3	5	1	1	7	23
MIL	Robert Gasser	Starter	5.0	4	5	0	5	20	78
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
MIL	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	1	2	1	0	6	23
MIL	Trevor Megill	Closer	2.0	0	0	0	0	6	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260907_CIN@LAD

20260907_CIN@LAD.json • 2026-09-07

CIN 5 - LAD 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=10; HR: current=2, sim=4).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=2, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; JJ Bleday: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Tyler Stephenson: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Matt McLain: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ke'Bryan Hayes: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tommy Edman: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=2; Freddie Freeman: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Teoscar Hernández: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alex Call: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Alex Freeland: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match LAD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=35 matches LAD BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match CIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match CIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match CIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=40 matches CIN BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.593 -> 0.565 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.592676, 'sample_size': 550, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5382, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.565438, 'published_confidence': 0.532561, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.467.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.533.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.533.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.529/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 6, LAD 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 5 - LAD 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for LAD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5325606185, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_CIN@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018122102775898048}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0175996200395061}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017367646598822693}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016908396978817433}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016866915771288165}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02451095594575769, '1': 0.04131643102678156, '2': 0.0631064716508667, '3': 0.08734007246828296, '4': 0.10953218374556704, '5': 0.12446822437534345, '6': 0.1281633324696942, '7': 0.11957974912314574, '8': 0.10109741102471125, '9': 0.07744813774001598, '10': 0.053761388211292546, '11': 0.03381571065335981, '12': 0.01927325699890065, '13': 0.009953601644025405, '14': 0.004657940625986459, '15': 0.0019751322962687176}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0352907435681597, '1': 0.05892597657736703, '2': 0.08747987979518458, '3': 0.1154688858541653, '4': 0.13551182123740024, '5': 0.14139849851503544, '6': 0.13118005916300982, '7': 0.10820473257893103, '8': 0.0793560602711087, '9': 0.05174511424289078, '10': 0.02999949959788974, '11': 0.015463723655621807, '12': 0.007087116280569878, '13': 0.0028878886626659216}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.9755, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.108, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.2463}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'CIN 5 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'CIN 5 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.076, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.108, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2463, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 5 - 6 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 5 - 6 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.533.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match LAD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=35 matches LAD BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match CIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match CIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match CIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=40 matches CIN BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.593 -> 0.565 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.592676, 'sample_size': 550, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5382, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.565438, 'published_confidence': 0.532561, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.467.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.533.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.533.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.529/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 6, LAD 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 5 - LAD 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for LAD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5325606185, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_CIN@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018122102775898048}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0175996200395061}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017367646598822693}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016908396978817433}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016866915771288165}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02451095594575769, '1': 0.04131643102678156, '2': 0.0631064716508667, '3': 0.08734007246828296, '4': 0.10953218374556704, '5': 0.12446822437534345, '6': 0.1281633324696942, '7': 0.11957974912314574, '8': 0.10109741102471125, '9': 0.07744813774001598, '10': 0.053761388211292546, '11': 0.03381571065335981, '12': 0.01927325699890065, '13': 0.009953601644025405, '14': 0.004657940625986459, '15': 0.0019751322962687176}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0352907435681597, '1': 0.05892597657736703, '2': 0.08747987979518458, '3': 0.1154688858541653, '4': 0.13551182123740024, '5': 0.14139849851503544, '6': 0.13118005916300982, '7': 0.10820473257893103, '8': 0.0793560602711087, '9': 0.05174511424289078, '10': 0.02999949959788974, '11': 0.015463723655621807, '12': 0.007087116280569878, '13': 0.0028878886626659216}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.9755, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.108, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.2463}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'CIN 5 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'CIN 5 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.076, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.108, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2463, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 5 - 6 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 5 - 6 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.533.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=10; HR: current=2, sim=4).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=2, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; JJ Bleday: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Tyler Stephenson: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Matt McLain: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ke'Bryan Hayes: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tommy Edman: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=2; Freddie Freeman: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Teoscar Hernández: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alex Call: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Alex Freeland: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.23859906220732	3.664200065147538		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	6	0.533	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, season_quality_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	0	5	6
LAD	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	1	6	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CIN	batting	33	8	1	0	2	5	4	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		8			2		6	4	10					8.0	6	0	0
current	LAD	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	5	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		6			3		5	2	8					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	CIN	batting	33	6	0	1	3	5	5	2	8	0	0
simulation	CIN	pitching		10			4		6	4	10					8.2	6	40	167
simulation	LAD	batting	36	10	1	1	4	6	6	4	10	0	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		6			3		5	2	8					9.0	5	35	144

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CIN		RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		SS	Elly De La Cruz	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	0.200
current	CIN		LF	JJ Bleday	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	CIN		C	Tyler Stephenson	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	CIN		1B	Sal Stewart	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		DH	Eugenio Suárez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		2B	Matt McLain	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
current	CIN		3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		CF	Carlos Jorge	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		2B	Tommy Edman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		CF	Alex Call	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	LAD		SS	Alex Freeland	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		C	Hunter Feduccia	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	1	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	CIN	2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0.500
simulation	CIN	3	1B	Sal Stewart	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	4	LF	JJ Bleday	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	5	C	Tyler Stephenson	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CIN	6	DH	Eugenio Suárez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	7	2B	Matt McLain	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CIN	8	CF	Carlos Jorge	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	3	0.250
simulation	CIN	9	3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	5	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	LAD	2	1B	Freddie Freeman	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.250
simulation	LAD	3	2B	Tommy Edman	5	3	1	0	1	0	1	2	2	1	0.333
simulation	LAD	4	3B	Max Muncy	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.200
simulation	LAD	5	LF	Teoscar Hernández	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	6	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	LAD	7	C	Hunter Feduccia	4	4	2	0	0	2	1	2	0	1	0.500
simulation	LAD	8	CF	Alex Call	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	9	SS	Alex Freeland	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CIN	1	Chase Burns	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	3	8	0	0	0	4.76	2.79	1.16
current	CIN	2	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.81	1.42
current	CIN	3	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	3	3	0	2	2	0	0	27.00	2.50	1.30
current	LAD	1	Emmet Sheehan	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	1	5	1	0	0	3.60	5.29	1.29
current	LAD	3	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.49	0.97
current	LAD	4	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	18.00	2.65	0.95
current	LAD	5	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	5.40	2.67	0.98
simulation	CIN	1	Chase Burns	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	3	8	1	28	113	4.76	2.79	1.16
simulation	CIN	2	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	0	6	32	0.00	3.81	1.42
simulation	CIN	3	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	3	3	3	0	2	3	6	22	16.20	2.50	1.30
simulation	LAD	1	Emmet Sheehan	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	1	5	1	20	83	3.60	5.29	1.29
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	6	24	5.40	2.67	0.98
simulation	LAD	3	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	1	5	20	18.00	2.65	0.95
simulation	LAD	4	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.49	0.97

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CIN	Chase Burns	Starter	5.2	3	6	3	8	28	113
CIN	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.1	0	1	1	0	6	32
CIN	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	3	3	0	2	6	22
LAD	Emmet Sheehan	Starter	5.0	2	4	1	5	20	83
LAD	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17
LAD	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	5	20
LAD	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.2	1	1	0	1	6	24

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260907_CLE@BAL

20260907_CLE@BAL.json • 2026-09-07

CLE 3 - BAL 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=39; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=10, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Blaze Alexander: AB current=3 box=5, R current=0 box=1; Jackson Holliday: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Rece Hinds: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=1; Gunnar Henderson: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jo Adell: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; David Fry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Angel Genao: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Petey Halpin: SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Austin Hedges: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match CLE pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match CLE pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=39 matches CLE BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match BAL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match BAL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=42 matches BAL BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.530 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 477, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5493, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5297, 'published_confidence': 0.507765, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.492.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.508.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.508.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.571/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 7, BAL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 3 - BAL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BAL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BAL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'CLE', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-04-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-04-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'BAL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BAL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BAL', 'final_score_winner': 'BAL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0245, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.235, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1158, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_CLE@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@BAL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': -6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.5, 'home_run_delta': -0.0375, 'away_run_delta': 0.0375, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0282262521866831}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02809506682398304}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02789314878419516}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.027763511565059573}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.024178570472246353}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06178393357798275, '1': 0.10089746168895171, '2': 0.14013859117656097, '3': 0.1655419529651718, '4': 0.1663149242941908, '5': 0.14211083499014004, '6': 0.10327518478719701, '7': 0.06383187343967343, '8': 0.03355459659939616, '9': 0.015001658461214066, '10': 0.00570426044486288, '11': 0.001844727574658231}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06470225090796573, '1': 0.10541405728406923, '2': 0.14537823694930355, '3': 0.16971569031745043, '4': 0.167712842984888, '5': 0.14029182850878563, '6': 0.09933908585119162, '7': 0.05954285729628326, '8': 0.030210708634162683, '9': 0.012975194661121122, '10': 0.004717246604778899}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1458, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.06, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1158}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0245, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.235, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1158, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 3 - 4 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 3 - 4 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BAL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BAL, simulation=BAL, published=BAL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.508.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BAL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BAL wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BAL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match CLE pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match CLE pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=39 matches CLE BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match BAL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match BAL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=42 matches BAL BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.530 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 477, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5493, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5297, 'published_confidence': 0.507765, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.492.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.508.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.508.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.571/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 7, BAL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 3 - BAL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BAL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BAL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'CLE', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-04-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-04-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'BAL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BAL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BAL', 'final_score_winner': 'BAL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0245, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.235, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1158, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_CLE@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@BAL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': -6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.5, 'home_run_delta': -0.0375, 'away_run_delta': 0.0375, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0282262521866831}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02809506682398304}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02789314878419516}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.027763511565059573}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.024178570472246353}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06178393357798275, '1': 0.10089746168895171, '2': 0.14013859117656097, '3': 0.1655419529651718, '4': 0.1663149242941908, '5': 0.14211083499014004, '6': 0.10327518478719701, '7': 0.06383187343967343, '8': 0.03355459659939616, '9': 0.015001658461214066, '10': 0.00570426044486288, '11': 0.001844727574658231}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06470225090796573, '1': 0.10541405728406923, '2': 0.14537823694930355, '3': 0.16971569031745043, '4': 0.167712842984888, '5': 0.14029182850878563, '6': 0.09933908585119162, '7': 0.05954285729628326, '8': 0.030210708634162683, '9': 0.012975194661121122, '10': 0.004717246604778899}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1458, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.06, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1158}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0245, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.235, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1158, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 3 - 4 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 3 - 4 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BAL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BAL, simulation=BAL, published=BAL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.508.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BAL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BAL wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BAL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=39; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=10, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Blaze Alexander: AB current=3 box=5, R current=0 box=1; Jackson Holliday: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Rece Hinds: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=1; Gunnar Henderson: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jo Adell: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; David Fry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Angel Genao: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Petey Halpin: SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Austin Hedges: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.210411898746637	4.242162013408794		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.508	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
CLE	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7
BAL	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CLE	batting	33	8	1	0	1	3	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		9			2		4	0	12					8.0	4	0	0
current	BAL	batting	31	7	2	0	1	4	4	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		6			1		3	4	8					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	CLE	batting	37	7	1	0	1	3	3	4	8	0	1
simulation	CLE	pitching		9			2		4	0	12					10.0	4	39	171
simulation	BAL	batting	39	9	0	0	2	4	4	0	12	0	0
simulation	BAL	pitching		7			1		3	4	8					10.0	3	42	183

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CLE		DH	Jo Adell	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		RF	Angel Martínez	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		1B	David Fry	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		2B	Angel Genao	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		3B	José Ramírez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	CLE		CF	Petey Halpin	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CLE		C	Austin Hedges	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		LF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		RF	Blaze Alexander	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		2B	Jackson Holliday	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		DH	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		3B	Coby Mayo	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		CF	Rece Hinds	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	BAL		SS	Gunnar Henderson	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		C	Samuel Basallo	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		LF	Dylan Beavers	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	1	LF	Steven Kwan	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	CLE	2	DH	Jo Adell	5	4	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	CLE	3	3B	José Ramírez	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	4	RF	Angel Martínez	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	CLE	5	1B	David Fry	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	6	2B	Angel Genao	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	CLE	7	C	Austin Hedges	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	8	CF	Petey Halpin	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	1	RF	Blaze Alexander	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	BAL	2	1B	Pete Alonso	5	5	2	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	0.400
simulation	BAL	3	2B	Jackson Holliday	5	5	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	BAL	4	3B	Coby Mayo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	5	SS	Gunnar Henderson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	6	DH	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	7	C	Samuel Basallo	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	8	CF	Rece Hinds	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	9	LF	Dylan Beavers	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CLE	1	Joey Cantillo	Starter	4.2	2	2	2	0	6	1	0	0	3.86	3.81	1.48
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.25	1.05
current	CLE	3	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.55	1.06
current	CLE	4	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.66	1.14
current	CLE	5	Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		3.08	1.25
current	CLE	7	Daniel Espino	Reliever	0.0	1	2	2	0	1	1	0	0
current	BAL	1	Trevor Rogers	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	3	3	1	0	0	4.76	4.30	1.23
current	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.27	1.39
current	BAL	3	Josh Walker	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.05	1.32
current	BAL	4	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.55	0.90
current	BAL	5	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0		2.42	0.90
simulation	CLE	1	Joey Cantillo	Starter	4.2	2	2	2	0	6	1	16	77	3.86	3.81	1.48
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	5	20	0.00	2.25	1.05
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	2.66	1.14
simulation	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	0	0	0	2	0	6	22	0.00	2.55	1.06
simulation	CLE	5	Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	7	0.00	3.08	1.25
simulation	CLE	6	Daniel Espino	Reliever	1.2	1	2	2	0	1	1	6	29	10.80	3.38	1.25
simulation	BAL	1	Trevor Rogers	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	3	3	1	27	113	4.76	4.30	1.23
simulation	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.27	1.39
simulation	BAL	3	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	29	0.00	2.55	0.90
simulation	BAL	4	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	12	0.00	2.42	0.90
simulation	BAL	5	Josh Walker	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	16	0.00	2.05	1.32

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CLE	Joey Cantillo	Starter	4.2	2	2	0	6	16	77
CLE	Cade Smith	Closer	1.1	0	1	0	2	5	20
CLE	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	3	0	2	6	22
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
CLE	Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	1	0	0	2	7
CLE	Daniel Espino	Reliever	1.2	2	1	0	1	6	29
BAL	Trevor Rogers	Starter	5.2	3	6	3	3	27	113
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
BAL	Josh Walker	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	16
BAL	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	29
BAL	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	1	2	3	12

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260907_LAA@BOS

20260907_LAA@BOS.json • 2026-09-07

LAA 3 - BOS 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=4; Trevor Story: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=5 box=4; Caleb Durbin: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Eli White: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Kyren Paris: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Zach Neto: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Moore: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match LAA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match LAA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match LAA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=30 matches LAA BF=30.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match BOS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match BOS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=38 matches BOS BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.776 -> 0.667 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.775922, 'sample_size': 269, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5576, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.666761, 'published_confidence': 0.62315, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.377.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.623.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.623.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.571/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 9, BOS 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 3 - BOS 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for BOS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.6231496, 'h2h_net_margin': 12, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260704', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260704_BOS@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_LAA@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@BOS.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 12.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 12.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0818, 'away_run_delta': -0.0818, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02848451497061568}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028063643605635177}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02774660131814158}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02733663295524747}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0255482826090971}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03887396343934308, '1': 0.0647099631449925, '2': 0.09518567489107813, '3': 0.123725764215555, '4': 0.14211398149999196, '5': 0.14424526944738827, '6': 0.1293762211738156, '7': 0.10254050580125491, '8': 0.07181655344967486, '9': 0.04444693041591734, '10': 0.024307880787255397, '11': 0.011747366892563393, '12': 0.005016745598100301, '13': 0.0018931792430691412}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.09488270477310329, '1': 0.150661221316622, '2': 0.19235709721670852, '3': 0.1974727842357774, '4': 0.16300412244320447, '5': 0.1081887817174226, '6': 0.05773752674741574, '7': 0.02477572810394622, '8': 0.008548442206900129, '9': 0.0023715912388995643}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.3922, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.308, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.0127}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0198, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.658, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0127, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 129.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 129.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 3 - 5 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 3 - 5 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.623.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BOS wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match LAA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match LAA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match LAA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=30 matches LAA BF=30.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match BOS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match BOS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=38 matches BOS BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.776 -> 0.667 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.775922, 'sample_size': 269, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5576, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.666761, 'published_confidence': 0.62315, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.377.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.623.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.623.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.571/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 9, BOS 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 3 - BOS 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for BOS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.6231496, 'h2h_net_margin': 12, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260704', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260704_BOS@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_LAA@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@BOS.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 12.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 12.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0818, 'away_run_delta': -0.0818, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02848451497061568}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028063643605635177}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02774660131814158}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02733663295524747}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0255482826090971}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03887396343934308, '1': 0.0647099631449925, '2': 0.09518567489107813, '3': 0.123725764215555, '4': 0.14211398149999196, '5': 0.14424526944738827, '6': 0.1293762211738156, '7': 0.10254050580125491, '8': 0.07181655344967486, '9': 0.04444693041591734, '10': 0.024307880787255397, '11': 0.011747366892563393, '12': 0.005016745598100301, '13': 0.0018931792430691412}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.09488270477310329, '1': 0.150661221316622, '2': 0.19235709721670852, '3': 0.1974727842357774, '4': 0.16300412244320447, '5': 0.1081887817174226, '6': 0.05773752674741574, '7': 0.02477572810394622, '8': 0.008548442206900129, '9': 0.0023715912388995643}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.3922, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.308, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.0127}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0198, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.658, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0127, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 129.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 129.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 3 - 5 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 3 - 5 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.623.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BOS wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=4; Trevor Story: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=5 box=4; Caleb Durbin: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Eli White: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Kyren Paris: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Zach Neto: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Moore: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.256027074589859	4.907730266989098		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	5	0.623	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	3	9
BOS	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	5	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	LAA	batting	31	7	1	0	1	3	3	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		6			3		5	0	8					8.0	5	0	0
current	BOS	batting	34	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		9			1		3	2	6					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	LAA	batting	35	9	2	2	1	3	3	2	6	1	0
simulation	LAA	pitching		6			3		5	0	8					8.0	5	30	129
simulation	BOS	batting	30	6	0	0	3	5	5	0	8	0	0
simulation	BOS	pitching		9			1		3	2	6					9.0	3	38	135

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	LAA		LF	Wade Meckler	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAA		3B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		DH	Mike Trout	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAA		1B	Moisés Ballesteros	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	LAA		RF	Josh Lowe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	LAA		CF	Kyren Paris	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAA		2B	Christian Moore	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		C	Tyler Heineman	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	BOS		DH	Roman Anthony	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	BOS		1B	Mickey Gasper	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
current	BOS		SS	Trevor Story	0	5	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.200
current	BOS		C	Adley Rutschman	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	BOS		CF	Eli White	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	BOS		LF	Jarren Duran	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		2B	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	1	SS	Zach Neto	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	2	DH	Mike Trout	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAA	3	LF	Wade Meckler	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	LAA	4	3B	Vaughn Grissom	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	5	1B	Moisés Ballesteros	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.500
simulation	LAA	6	2B	Christian Moore	4	4	2	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	7	RF	Josh Lowe	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	LAA	8	CF	Kyren Paris	4	3	1	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	LAA	9	C	Tyler Heineman	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	1	DH	Roman Anthony	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0.250
simulation	BOS	2	1B	Mickey Gasper	4	4	2	0	0	2	1	4	0	0	0.500
simulation	BOS	3	C	Adley Rutschman	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	BOS	4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	5	SS	Trevor Story	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	6	3B	Caleb Durbin	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	7	LF	Jarren Duran	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	BOS	8	2B	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	9	CF	Eli White	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	LAA	1	Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	0	5	2	0	0	5.40	6.03	1.52
current	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Closer	2.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.89	0.86
current	LAA	6	Ryan Watson	Setup Man	0.2	2	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	27.00	4.25	1.29
current	BOS	1	Brayan Bello	Starter	4.1	4	2	2	2	4	1	0	0	4.15	5.07	1.46
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	6.75	1.48	1.05
current	BOS	3	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.96	1.20
current	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.91	0.85
current	BOS	5	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.54	1.20
simulation	LAA	1	Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	0	5	2	19	86	5.40	6.03	1.52
simulation	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Closer	2.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	7	29	0.00	2.89	0.86
simulation	LAA	3	Ryan Watson	Setup Man	0.2	2	2	2	0	1	1	4	14	27.00	4.25	1.29
simulation	BOS	1	Brayan Bello	Starter	4.1	4	2	2	2	4	1	19	75	4.15	5.07	1.46
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	0	6	8	6.75	1.48	1.05
simulation	BOS	3	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.96	1.20
simulation	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	20	0.00	1.91	0.85
simulation	BOS	5	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	19	0.00	3.54	1.20

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
LAA	Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	5.0	3	4	0	5	19	86
LAA	Ben Joyce	Closer	2.1	0	0	0	2	7	29
LAA	Ryan Watson	Setup Man	0.2	2	2	0	1	4	14
BOS	Brayan Bello	Starter	4.1	2	4	2	4	19	75
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.1	1	2	0	1	6	8
BOS	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	1	0	0	5	20
BOS	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260907_MIN@DET

20260907_MIN@DET.json • 2026-09-07

MIN 5 - DET 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Kevin McGonigle: BB current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Gleyber Torres: AB current=5 box=4, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Zach McKinstry: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; John Peck: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Max Clark: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Trevor Larnach: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kaelen Culpepper: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=37 matches MIN BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match DET pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match DET pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=36 matches DET BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.624 -> 0.582 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.624052, 'sample_size': 516, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5407, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.582376, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.571/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 6, DET 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 5 - DET 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': 18, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-09-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 15, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 13, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-08-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 10, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260902', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.559116, 'artifact': '20260902_DET@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 13, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260901_DET@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260831', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 10, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260831_DET@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIN', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.046, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.55, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'DET', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.257, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_MIN@DET.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@DET.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0519, 'away_run_delta': 0.0519, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -13.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02160016427891228}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020550872171370346}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020442296481901948}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.02034947051893916}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019775587296834814}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.047436626766995255, '1': 0.07839797476894789, '2': 0.11286035932877554, '3': 0.14152186824935384, '4': 0.15457925761496322, '5': 0.14707011125335787, '6': 0.12188300814155364, '7': 0.08798475870144247, '8': 0.05532447099528128, '9': 0.03030209338227005, '10': 0.01445684531323322, '11': 0.006007862377299019, '12': 0.0021747631065268877}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.033678741917511155, '1': 0.05631297599317734, '2': 0.08395175639818028, '3': 0.11158858796483583, '4': 0.13224475778516834, '5': 0.13973520517685156, '6': 0.1316442505476837, '7': 0.11057746866949959, '8': 0.08281329777393343, '9': 0.05529708053240537, '10': 0.03292099966910919, '11': 0.017474812071461204, '12': 0.008270289295514138, '13': 0.003489776204669071}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.6538, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.48, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.257}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.046, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.55, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'DET', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.257, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 5 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 5 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIN, simulation=MIN, published=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=37 matches MIN BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match DET pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match DET pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=36 matches DET BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.624 -> 0.582 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.624052, 'sample_size': 516, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5407, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.582376, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.571/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 6, DET 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 5 - DET 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': 18, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-09-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 15, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 13, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-08-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 10, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260902', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.559116, 'artifact': '20260902_DET@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 13, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260901_DET@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260831', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 10, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260831_DET@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIN', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.046, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.55, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'DET', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.257, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_MIN@DET.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@DET.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0519, 'away_run_delta': 0.0519, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -13.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02160016427891228}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020550872171370346}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020442296481901948}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.02034947051893916}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019775587296834814}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.047436626766995255, '1': 0.07839797476894789, '2': 0.11286035932877554, '3': 0.14152186824935384, '4': 0.15457925761496322, '5': 0.14707011125335787, '6': 0.12188300814155364, '7': 0.08798475870144247, '8': 0.05532447099528128, '9': 0.03030209338227005, '10': 0.01445684531323322, '11': 0.006007862377299019, '12': 0.0021747631065268877}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.033678741917511155, '1': 0.05631297599317734, '2': 0.08395175639818028, '3': 0.11158858796483583, '4': 0.13224475778516834, '5': 0.13973520517685156, '6': 0.1316442505476837, '7': 0.11057746866949959, '8': 0.08281329777393343, '9': 0.05529708053240537, '10': 0.03292099966910919, '11': 0.017474812071461204, '12': 0.008270289295514138, '13': 0.003489776204669071}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.6538, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.48, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.257}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.046, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.55, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'DET', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.257, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 5 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 5 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIN, simulation=MIN, published=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Kevin McGonigle: BB current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Gleyber Torres: AB current=5 box=4, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Zach McKinstry: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; John Peck: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Max Clark: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Trevor Larnach: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kaelen Culpepper: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.384264863525414	4.3812499123067745		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	6
DET	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	4	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIN	batting	34	8	2	0	1	5	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		7			0		4	2	9					9.0	4	0	0
current	DET	batting	36	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		6			1		5	3	5					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	MIN	batting	33	6	0	0	1	5	5	3	5	0	0
simulation	MIN	pitching		7			0		4	2	9					9.0	4	37	158
simulation	DET	batting	34	7	3	0	0	4	4	2	9	0	1
simulation	DET	pitching		6			1		5	3	5					9.0	5	36	139

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	MIN		RF	Luke Keaschall	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	MIN		2B	Kody Clemens	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		3B	Brooks Lee	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	MIN		1B	Royce Lewis	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		DH	Josh Bell	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		C	Ryan Jeffers	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		LF	Trevor Larnach	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		CF	Walker Jenkins	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	DET		DH	Colt Keith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		3B	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	DET		LF	Riley Greene	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		2B	Gleyber Torres	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.200
current	DET		RF	Zach McKinstry	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		C	Dillon Dingler	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	DET		SS	John Peck	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		CF	Max Clark	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		1B	Spencer Torkelson	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	1	RF	Luke Keaschall	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	2	3B	Brooks Lee	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	3	2B	Kody Clemens	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	4	C	Ryan Jeffers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	5	DH	Josh Bell	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	6	1B	Royce Lewis	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	MIN	7	LF	Trevor Larnach	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	8	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	9	CF	Walker Jenkins	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	DET	1	DH	Colt Keith	5	4	1	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	DET	2	3B	Kevin McGonigle	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	DET	3	2B	Gleyber Torres	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	DET	4	LF	Riley Greene	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	DET	5	C	Dillon Dingler	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	DET	6	RF	Zach McKinstry	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	DET	7	1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	DET	8	CF	Max Clark	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	DET	9	SS	John Peck	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIN	1	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.2	7	4	4	1	6	0	0	0	6.35	3.65	1.14
current	MIN	2	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.72	0.95
current	MIN	3	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.81	1.39
current	MIN	4	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.56	1.35
current	DET	1	Troy Melton	Starter	6.0	3	2	2	2	5	1	0	0	3.00	2.20	1.03
current	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	3.26	1.11
current	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	3.24	1.46
current	DET	4	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	2.82	1.27
simulation	MIN	1	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.2	7	4	4	1	6	0	26	108	6.35	3.65	1.14
simulation	MIN	2	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.56	1.35
simulation	MIN	3	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	20	0.00	3.81	1.39
simulation	MIN	4	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	1.72	0.95
simulation	DET	1	Troy Melton	Starter	6.0	3	2	2	2	5	1	23	93	3.00	2.20	1.03
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4	16	9.00	3.26	1.11
simulation	DET	3	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	0	5	14	9.00	2.82	1.27
simulation	DET	4	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4	16	9.00	3.24	1.46

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIN	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.2	4	7	1	6	26	108
MIN	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
MIN	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	20
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
DET	Troy Melton	Starter	6.0	2	3	2	5	23	93
DET	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
DET	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
DET	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	0	5	14

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260907_NYM@MIA

20260907_NYM@MIA.json • 2026-09-07

NYM 4 - MIA 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Griffin Conine: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Heriberto Hernández: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Otto Lopez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Owen Caissie: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Graham Pauley: AB current=3 box=4		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=4; Carson Benge: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Morabito: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Francisco Alvarez: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match NYM pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match NYM pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=40 matches NYM BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match MIA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match MIA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=37 matches MIA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.462 -> 0.512 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.461518, 'sample_size': 336, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5625, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.512009, 'published_confidence': 0.520771, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.479.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.521.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.521.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.571/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 9, MIA 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 4 - MIA 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5207706, 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260802', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260802_MIA@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260801', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260801_MIA@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260731', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.524732, 'artifact': '20260731_MIA@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260730', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.526346, 'artifact': '20260730_MIA@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_NYM@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@MIA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0115, 'away_run_delta': 0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025644923384405213}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02438330309633987}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024020053169706564}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023694401979561134}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02324153082725313}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05140482370348403, '1': 0.08467995171778815, '2': 0.1207186121833006, '3': 0.1489308852341302, '4': 0.15900552402680518, '5': 0.14691175897811204, '6': 0.11746752254510605, '7': 0.08128229636930945, '8': 0.0486733260819321, '9': 0.025223362955271156, '10': 0.011311803661439841, '11': 0.0043901325433212575}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0539610572326909, '1': 0.08870047652598081, '2': 0.1256394166395915, '3': 0.1533487798337706, '4': 0.16128322296577563, '5': 0.14616807164092657, '6': 0.11414852307648647, '7': 0.07681438028970734, '8': 0.044541949469848616, '9': 0.02225616671678045, '10': 0.009582657501715166, '11': 0.00355529810672585}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.508, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.112, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.291}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0386, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.042, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIA', 'model_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.291, 'winner': 'MIA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 4 - 5 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 4 - 5 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIA, simulation=MIA, published=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.521.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match NYM pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match NYM pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=40 matches NYM BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match MIA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match MIA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=37 matches MIA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.462 -> 0.512 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.461518, 'sample_size': 336, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5625, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.512009, 'published_confidence': 0.520771, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.479.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.521.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.521.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.571/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 9, MIA 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 4 - MIA 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5207706, 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260802', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260802_MIA@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260801', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260801_MIA@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260731', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.524732, 'artifact': '20260731_MIA@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260730', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.526346, 'artifact': '20260730_MIA@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_NYM@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@MIA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0115, 'away_run_delta': 0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025644923384405213}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02438330309633987}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024020053169706564}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023694401979561134}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02324153082725313}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05140482370348403, '1': 0.08467995171778815, '2': 0.1207186121833006, '3': 0.1489308852341302, '4': 0.15900552402680518, '5': 0.14691175897811204, '6': 0.11746752254510605, '7': 0.08128229636930945, '8': 0.0486733260819321, '9': 0.025223362955271156, '10': 0.011311803661439841, '11': 0.0043901325433212575}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0539610572326909, '1': 0.08870047652598081, '2': 0.1256394166395915, '3': 0.1533487798337706, '4': 0.16128322296577563, '5': 0.14616807164092657, '6': 0.11414852307648647, '7': 0.07681438028970734, '8': 0.044541949469848616, '9': 0.02225616671678045, '10': 0.009582657501715166, '11': 0.00355529810672585}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.508, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.112, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.291}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0386, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.042, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIA', 'model_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.291, 'winner': 'MIA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 4 - 5 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 4 - 5 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIA, simulation=MIA, published=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.521.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Griffin Conine: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Heriberto Hernández: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Otto Lopez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Owen Caissie: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Graham Pauley: AB current=3 box=4	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=4; Carson Benge: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Morabito: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Francisco Alvarez: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.495955470301921	4.81010339358365		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.521	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	4	9
MIA	0	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	5	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYM	batting	36	8	1	0	1	5	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		11			2		5	5	5					8.0	5	0	0
current	MIA	batting	32	8	2	0	1	5	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		9			2		4	1	2					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	NYM	batting	36	9	1	0	2	4	4	1	2	0	0
simulation	NYM	pitching		11			2		5	5	5					8.0	5	40	150
simulation	MIA	batting	35	11	2	0	2	5	5	5	5	0	0
simulation	MIA	pitching		9			2		4	1	2					9.0	4	37	144

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	NYM		DH	Juan Soto	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	NYM		RF	Carson Benge	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		CF	A.J. Ewing	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	NYM		1B	Brett Baty	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	NYM		LF	Nick Morabito	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	NYM		C	Francisco Alvarez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		3B	Bo Bichette	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	NYM		SS	Francisco Lindor	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	MIA		DH	Kyle Stowers	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	2	0.250
current	MIA		1B	Griffin Conine	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	MIA		2B	Javier Sanoja	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIA		LF	Heriberto Hernández	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	MIA		CF	Jakob Marsee	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	MIA		RF	Owen Caissie	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		3B	Graham Pauley	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	MIA		C	Joe Mack	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
simulation	NYM	1	SS	Francisco Lindor	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	NYM	2	DH	Juan Soto	4	3	2	0	2	1	4	1	0	0.667
simulation	NYM	3	3B	Bo Bichette	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	4	RF	Carson Benge	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	5	2B	Marcus Semien	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	6	CF	A.J. Ewing	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	NYM	7	C	Francisco Alvarez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	8	1B	Brett Baty	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	9	LF	Nick Morabito	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	MIA	1	DH	Kyle Stowers	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	MIA	2	LF	Heriberto Hernández	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0.250
simulation	MIA	3	1B	Griffin Conine	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.400
simulation	MIA	4	SS	Otto Lopez	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.400
simulation	MIA	5	CF	Jakob Marsee	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIA	6	2B	Javier Sanoja	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	7	RF	Owen Caissie	4	3	2	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.667
simulation	MIA	8	3B	Graham Pauley	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	9	C	Joe Mack	4	3	2	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.667

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYM	1	Jonah Tong	Starter	3.1	8	3	3	1	5	1	0	0	8.10	3.60	1.50
current	NYM	3	Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	2.0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.08	0.77
current	NYM	4	Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.62
current	NYM	6	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	18.00	7.11	1.60
current	MIA	1	Eury Pérez	Starter	5.1	7	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	5.06	3.72	1.18
current	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	6.75	3.73	1.33
current	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.30	1.13
current	MIA	4	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.36	1.36
simulation	NYM	1	Jonah Tong	Starter	3.1	8	3	3	1	5	1	19	70	8.10	3.60	1.50
simulation	NYM	2	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	1	7	26	18.00	7.11	1.60
simulation	NYM	3	Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	2.0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9	33	0.00	2.08	0.77
simulation	NYM	4	Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	0.00	0.62
simulation	MIA	1	Eury Pérez	Starter	5.1	7	3	3	1	1	1	24	92	5.06	3.72	1.18
simulation	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	5	19	6.75	3.73	1.33
simulation	MIA	3	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	4.36	1.36
simulation	MIA	4	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	20	0.00	3.30	1.13

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYM	Jonah Tong	Starter	3.1	3	8	1	5	19	70
NYM	Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	2.0	0	0	3	0	9	33
NYM	Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	21
NYM	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.0	2	3	1	0	7	26
MIA	Eury Pérez	Starter	5.1	3	7	1	1	24	92
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.1	1	1	0	1	5	19
MIA	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	1	0	0	5	20
MIA	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260907_STL@SF

20260907_STL@SF.json • 2026-09-07

STL 7 - SF 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=2, sim=3).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Turner Hill: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Rafael Devers: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Osleivis Basabe: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=5 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jonah Cox: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Iván Herrera: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Bryan Torres: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Joshua Baez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match STL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match STL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=40 matches STL BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match SF pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=41 matches SF BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.685 -> 0.613 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.685068, 'sample_size': 563, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.54, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.612534, 'published_confidence': 0.626764, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.627.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.627.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.373.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.481/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 10, SF 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 7 - SF 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.626764, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_STL@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@SF.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.016519689084748566}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016356539945526997}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.015639194152050426}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01557194506866104}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015484740817551433}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.033170191698412704, '1': 0.05548722487586384, '2': 0.0828307366312896, '3': 0.11034268266669738, '4': 0.13117438866296743, '5': 0.13915796048852336, '6': 0.13174087906367535, '7': 0.11129779356902565, '8': 0.08390851752658857, '9': 0.05645196158689171, '10': 0.033892649646278195, '11': 0.018158731326664034, '12': 0.008681983964081097, '13': 0.0037042982930410033}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.018049799341649367, '1': 0.030611341182716537, '2': 0.047618503853986034, '3': 0.0679442239626119, '4': 0.08892272187980846, '5': 0.10674716784686576, '6': 0.11753937674931615, '7': 0.11871177923817718, '8': 0.10997340029884758, '9': 0.09344690049138706, '10': 0.0728325569564927, '11': 0.052067847213663435, '12': 0.03414263969129913, '13': 0.020535627435899866, '14': 0.011329278862417488, '15': 0.005732973911259181, '16': 0.0026609767050578344, '17': 0.0011328843785441275}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.5938, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.372, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.5161}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 7 - 5 SF', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 7 - 5 SF', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1027, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.372, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'STL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5161, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 184.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 184.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 7 - 5 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 7 - 5 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 7-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=STL, simulation=STL, published=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.627.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): STL wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-5, final 7-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 12.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 7-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match STL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match STL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=40 matches STL BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match SF pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=41 matches SF BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.685 -> 0.613 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.685068, 'sample_size': 563, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.54, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.612534, 'published_confidence': 0.626764, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.627.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.627.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.373.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.481/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 10, SF 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 7 - SF 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.626764, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_STL@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@SF.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.016519689084748566}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016356539945526997}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.015639194152050426}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01557194506866104}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015484740817551433}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.033170191698412704, '1': 0.05548722487586384, '2': 0.0828307366312896, '3': 0.11034268266669738, '4': 0.13117438866296743, '5': 0.13915796048852336, '6': 0.13174087906367535, '7': 0.11129779356902565, '8': 0.08390851752658857, '9': 0.05645196158689171, '10': 0.033892649646278195, '11': 0.018158731326664034, '12': 0.008681983964081097, '13': 0.0037042982930410033}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.018049799341649367, '1': 0.030611341182716537, '2': 0.047618503853986034, '3': 0.0679442239626119, '4': 0.08892272187980846, '5': 0.10674716784686576, '6': 0.11753937674931615, '7': 0.11871177923817718, '8': 0.10997340029884758, '9': 0.09344690049138706, '10': 0.0728325569564927, '11': 0.052067847213663435, '12': 0.03414263969129913, '13': 0.020535627435899866, '14': 0.011329278862417488, '15': 0.005732973911259181, '16': 0.0026609767050578344, '17': 0.0011328843785441275}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.5938, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.372, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.5161}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 7 - 5 SF', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 7 - 5 SF', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1027, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.372, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'STL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5161, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 184.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 184.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 7 - 5 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 7 - 5 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 7-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=STL, simulation=STL, published=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.627.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): STL wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-5, final 7-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 12.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 7-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=2, sim=3).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Turner Hill: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Rafael Devers: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Osleivis Basabe: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=5 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jonah Cox: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Iván Herrera: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Bryan Torres: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Joshua Baez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.260435939235608	4.775023119703036		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7	5	0.627	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	7	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	0	2	2	0	0	3	0	0	7	10
SF	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	5	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	STL	batting	33	9	2	0	1	5	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		6			2		5	6	5					9.0	5	0	0
current	SF	batting	31	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		10			3		7	2	8					9.0	7	0	0
simulation	STL	batting	37	10	1	0	3	7	7	3	8	0	1
simulation	STL	pitching		6			2		5	6	5					9.0	5	40	165
simulation	SF	batting	33	6	2	1	2	5	5	6	5	0	1
simulation	SF	pitching		10			3		7	3	8					9.0	7	41	184

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	STL		C	Iván Herrera	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	STL		2B	Bryan Torres	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		DH	Leonardo Bernal	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	STL		LF	Joshua Baez	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		SS	Thomas Saggese	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	STL		3B	Nolan Gorman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		1B	Alec Burleson	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		CF	Nathan Church	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	5	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	SF		LF	Turner Hill	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	SF		DH	Rafael Devers	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SF		1B	Bryce Eldridge	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SF		2B	Osleivis Basabe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		C	Andrew Knizner	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		SS	Christian Koss	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	SF		CF	Jonah Cox	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		3B	Shay Whitcomb	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	STL	1	2B	Bryan Torres	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	STL	2	C	Iván Herrera	5	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	STL	3	1B	Alec Burleson	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	STL	4	RF	Jordan Walker	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	STL	5	DH	Leonardo Bernal	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	STL	6	3B	Nolan Gorman	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	STL	7	LF	Joshua Baez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	STL	8	SS	Thomas Saggese	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	STL	9	CF	Nathan Church	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	SF	1	LF	Turner Hill	5	5	2	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	SF	2	DH	Rafael Devers	5	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0.333
simulation	SF	3	1B	Bryce Eldridge	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	4	CF	Jonah Cox	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	SF	5	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SF	6	2B	Osleivis Basabe	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SF	7	C	Andrew Knizner	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SF	8	3B	Shay Whitcomb	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	SF	9	SS	Christian Koss	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	STL	1	Michael McGreevy	Starter	5.1	3	2	2	2	1	2	0	0	3.38	3.97	1.26
current	STL	2	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.0	1	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	18.00	4.26	1.34
current	STL	3	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.11	1.25
current	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	5.40	4.34	1.34
current	SF	1	Logan Webb	Starter	5.1	6	4	4	2	5	2	0	0	6.75	4.21	1.16
current	SF	2	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.21	1.21
current	SF	3	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	3	3	0	1	1	0	0	27.00	5.79	1.63
current	SF	4	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.13	1.33
current	SF	5	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.67	1.62
simulation	STL	1	Michael McGreevy	Starter	5.1	3	2	2	2	1	2	22	93	3.38	3.97	1.26
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	4.11	1.25
simulation	STL	3	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.0	1	2	2	2	1	0	6	24	18.00	4.26	1.34
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	2	1	1	1	1	0	8	31	5.40	4.34	1.34
simulation	SF	1	Logan Webb	Starter	5.1	6	4	4	2	5	2	25	105	6.75	4.21	1.16
simulation	SF	2	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.13	1.33
simulation	SF	3	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	5	32	0.00	3.21	1.21
simulation	SF	4	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	3	3	0	1	1	6	26	27.00	5.79	1.63
simulation	SF	5	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	8	0.00	4.67	1.62

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
STL	Michael McGreevy	Starter	5.1	2	3	2	1	22	93
STL	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	2	1	6	24
STL	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	1	2	1	1	8	31
SF	Logan Webb	Starter	5.1	4	6	2	5	25	105
SF	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.1	0	1	0	2	5	32
SF	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	3	0	1	6	26
SF	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
SF	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	0	1	0	2	8

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260907_TOR@OAK

20260907_TOR@OAK.json • 2026-09-07

TOR 6 - OAK 2

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jonah Heim: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Zack Gelof: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=6, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: George Springer: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Brett Bateman: BB current=1 box=0; Alejandro Kirk: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Nathan Lukes: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match TOR pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match TOR pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=35 matches TOR BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match OAK pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=36 matches OAK BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.859 -> 0.710 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.85877, 'sample_size': 114, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5614, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.710085, 'published_confidence': 0.699558, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.700.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.700.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.300.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.698/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 7, OAK 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 6 - OAK 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TOR.	{'winner_confidence': 0.699558, 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_TOR@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@OAK.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.667, 'home_run_delta': -0.0341, 'away_run_delta': 0.0341, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.024042100817421114}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.023414181318174784}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.022358057150424136}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.021982243234306125}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.021685311787564547}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08025585931245365, '1': 0.1290599374991828, '2': 0.17115870958913354, '3': 0.18719722586362975, '4': 0.16884673429530148, '5': 0.12559685766992407, '6': 0.07704735501342255, '7': 0.03897889708321656, '8': 0.016262758414920746, '9': 0.00559566525881485}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.024787661239238357, '1': 0.041772256219842215, '2': 0.06375415960145189, '3': 0.08812463446954337, '4': 0.11032002283453046, '5': 0.1250776084429352, '6': 0.12843192898026923, '7': 0.11943583590662626, '8': 0.1005922477334552, '9': 0.076729537929932, '10': 0.053006467711886565, '11': 0.03316372894916632, '12': 0.018791699576549494, '13': 0.009643550869353916, '14': 0.004482043857301176, '15': 0.0018866156779182644}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.1979, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.556, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.9732}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'TOR 6 - 2 OAK', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'TOR 6 - 2 OAK', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1731, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.906, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.75, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9732, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 130.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 130.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 6 - 2 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 6 - 2 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TOR, simulation=TOR, published=TOR.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.700.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TOR wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-2, final 6-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match TOR pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match TOR pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=35 matches TOR BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match OAK pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=36 matches OAK BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.859 -> 0.710 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.85877, 'sample_size': 114, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5614, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.710085, 'published_confidence': 0.699558, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.700.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.700.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.300.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.698/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 7, OAK 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 6 - OAK 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TOR.	{'winner_confidence': 0.699558, 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_TOR@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@OAK.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.667, 'home_run_delta': -0.0341, 'away_run_delta': 0.0341, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.024042100817421114}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.023414181318174784}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.022358057150424136}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.021982243234306125}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.021685311787564547}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08025585931245365, '1': 0.1290599374991828, '2': 0.17115870958913354, '3': 0.18719722586362975, '4': 0.16884673429530148, '5': 0.12559685766992407, '6': 0.07704735501342255, '7': 0.03897889708321656, '8': 0.016262758414920746, '9': 0.00559566525881485}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.024787661239238357, '1': 0.041772256219842215, '2': 0.06375415960145189, '3': 0.08812463446954337, '4': 0.11032002283453046, '5': 0.1250776084429352, '6': 0.12843192898026923, '7': 0.11943583590662626, '8': 0.1005922477334552, '9': 0.076729537929932, '10': 0.053006467711886565, '11': 0.03316372894916632, '12': 0.018791699576549494, '13': 0.009643550869353916, '14': 0.004482043857301176, '15': 0.0018866156779182644}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.1979, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.556, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.9732}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'TOR 6 - 2 OAK', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'TOR 6 - 2 OAK', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1731, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.906, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.75, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9732, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 130.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 130.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 6 - 2 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 6 - 2 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TOR, simulation=TOR, published=TOR.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.700.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TOR wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-2, final 6-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jonah Heim: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Zack Gelof: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=6, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: George Springer: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Brett Bateman: BB current=1 box=0; Alejandro Kirk: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Nathan Lukes: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.903081777352334	3.6374045653540557		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6	3	0.700	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	6	2		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	2		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	2		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	0	2	0	0	3	0	1	0	6	7
OAK	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	4

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TOR	batting	35	9	2	0	1	4	4	2	6	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		4			0		2	2	7					9.0	2	0	0
current	OAK	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		7			2		6	2	11					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	TOR	batting	34	7	3	0	2	6	6	2	11	0	0
simulation	TOR	pitching		4			0		2	2	7					9.0	2	35	130
simulation	OAK	batting	31	4	2	0	0	2	2	2	7	0	2
simulation	OAK	pitching		7			2		6	2	11					9.0	6	36	146

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TOR		DH	George Springer	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		CF	Brett Bateman	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		C	Alejandro Kirk	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	TOR		3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		LF	Myles Straw	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TOR		RF	Nathan Lukes	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		2B	Ernie Clement	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		SS	Andrés Giménez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		1B	Jeff McNeil	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	OAK		LF	Carlos Cortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		DH	Max Muncy	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		SS	Alika Williams	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		2B	Donovan Walton	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	OAK		C	Jonah Heim	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		3B	Zack Gelof	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		RF	Lawrence Butler	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	1	CF	Brett Bateman	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	2	DH	George Springer	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	TOR	4	C	Alejandro Kirk	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	5	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	6	RF	Nathan Lukes	4	4	2	1	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	7	2B	Ernie Clement	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	8	SS	Andrés Giménez	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	9	LF	Myles Straw	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	1	CF	Henry Bolte	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	2	1B	Jeff McNeil	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	3	3B	Zack Gelof	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	4	RF	Lawrence Butler	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	5	LF	Carlos Cortes	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	6	DH	Max Muncy	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	7	2B	Donovan Walton	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	OAK	8	SS	Alika Williams	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	9	C	Jonah Heim	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TOR	1	Dylan Cease	Starter	6.0	3	2	2	1	7	0	0	0	3.00	2.25	1.04
current	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.15	0.98
current	TOR	3	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.84	1.07
current	TOR	4	Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.84	1.19
current	OAK	1	Jacob Lopez	Starter	5.0	6	5	5	2	8	1	0	0	9.00	4.71	1.46
current	OAK	2	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.25	1.37
current	OAK	3	Elvis Alvarado	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.21	1.26
current	OAK	4	Hogan Harris	Setup Man	1.2	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	5.40	3.38	1.47
simulation	TOR	1	Dylan Cease	Starter	6.0	3	2	2	1	7	0	24	89	3.00	2.25	1.04
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.15	0.98
simulation	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.84	1.19
simulation	TOR	4	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	5	15	0.00	2.84	1.07
simulation	OAK	1	Jacob Lopez	Starter	5.0	6	5	5	2	8	1	23	92	9.00	4.71	1.46
simulation	OAK	2	Elvis Alvarado	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	4.21	1.26
simulation	OAK	3	Hogan Harris	Setup Man	1.2	1	1	1	0	2	1	6	24	5.40	3.38	1.47
simulation	OAK	4	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	3.25	1.37

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TOR	Dylan Cease	Starter	6.0	2	3	1	7	24	89
TOR	Louis Varland	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
TOR	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	1	0	5	15
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
OAK	Jacob Lopez	Starter	5.0	5	6	2	8	23	92
OAK	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
OAK	Elvis Alvarado	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
OAK	Hogan Harris	Setup Man	1.2	1	1	0	2	6	24

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260907_WAS@SD

20260907_WAS@SD.json • 2026-09-07

WAS 5 - SD 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Cronenworth: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Luis Campusano: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ty France: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ethan Salas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Dustin Harris: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brady House: RBI current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: 3B current=0 box=1; Abimelec Ortiz: H current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; CJ Abrams: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; James Wood: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Keibert Ruiz: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=36 matches WAS BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=36 matches SD BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.485 -> 0.520 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.484966, 'sample_size': 304, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5559, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.520433, 'published_confidence': 0.529654, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.481/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 6, SD 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 5 - SD 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SD', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-05-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-05-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SD', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0934, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.3847, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0369, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_WAS@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.667, 'home_run_delta': -0.0341, 'away_run_delta': 0.0341, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02057457368927294}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020212009890828057}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019977521181426802}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01962547860341569}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01878510555160399}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03697977085944832, '1': 0.061656556465363714, '2': 0.0911355595426761, '3': 0.11942355964300466, '4': 0.1387348946009802, '5': 0.14288115559077177, '6': 0.13045410464602675, '7': 0.10559274785071389, '8': 0.07577116835648832, '9': 0.04820226267405913, '10': 0.027184691888482302, '11': 0.013591736739017044, '12': 0.006024472715986407, '13': 0.0023673184269814482}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.038496625245047, '1': 0.06410244709357427, '2': 0.09438302813147567, '3': 0.12287981625281505, '4': 0.14146029129773838, '5': 0.1439978113572997, '6': 0.12961181219322443, '7': 0.10315745588404844, '8': 0.07259789213463376, '9': 0.04517672537978854, '10': 0.02485838060786859, '11': 0.012094788180639585, '12': 0.005203445963228697, '13': 0.00197948027861759}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0875, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.268, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.0369}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0934, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.3847, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0369, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 5 - 6 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 5 - 6 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SD wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=36 matches WAS BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=36 matches SD BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.485 -> 0.520 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.484966, 'sample_size': 304, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5559, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.520433, 'published_confidence': 0.529654, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.481/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 6, SD 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 5 - SD 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SD', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-05-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-05-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SD', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0934, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.3847, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0369, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260907_WAS@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.667, 'home_run_delta': -0.0341, 'away_run_delta': 0.0341, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02057457368927294}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020212009890828057}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019977521181426802}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01962547860341569}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01878510555160399}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03697977085944832, '1': 0.061656556465363714, '2': 0.0911355595426761, '3': 0.11942355964300466, '4': 0.1387348946009802, '5': 0.14288115559077177, '6': 0.13045410464602675, '7': 0.10559274785071389, '8': 0.07577116835648832, '9': 0.04820226267405913, '10': 0.027184691888482302, '11': 0.013591736739017044, '12': 0.006024472715986407, '13': 0.0023673184269814482}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.038496625245047, '1': 0.06410244709357427, '2': 0.09438302813147567, '3': 0.12287981625281505, '4': 0.14146029129773838, '5': 0.1439978113572997, '6': 0.12961181219322443, '7': 0.10315745588404844, '8': 0.07259789213463376, '9': 0.04517672537978854, '10': 0.02485838060786859, '11': 0.012094788180639585, '12': 0.005203445963228697, '13': 0.00197948027861759}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.75, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0875, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.268, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.0369}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0934, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.3847, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0369, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 5 - 6 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 5 - 6 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SD wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Cronenworth: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Luis Campusano: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ty France: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ethan Salas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Dustin Harris: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brady House: RBI current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: 3B current=0 box=1; Abimelec Ortiz: H current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; CJ Abrams: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; James Wood: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Keibert Ruiz: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.153441881923439	5.65493665893173		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	6	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	5	6
SD	3	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	6	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	WAS	batting	34	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		7			2		6	5	6					8.0	6	0	0
current	SD	batting	33	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		6			3		5	2	10					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	WAS	batting	33	6	0	1	3	5	5	2	10	0	1
simulation	WAS	pitching		7			2		6	5	6					8.0	6	36	151
simulation	SD	batting	31	7	1	0	2	6	6	5	6	0	0
simulation	SD	pitching		6			3		5	2	10					9.0	5	36	152

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	WAS		LF	Dylan Crews	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		3B	Brady House	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		DH	Daylen Lile	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		1B	Abimelec Ortiz	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	WAS		2B	Jorbit Vivas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	WAS		SS	CJ Abrams	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	WAS		RF	James Wood	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		C	Keibert Ruiz	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		2B	Jake Cronenworth	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	SD		DH	Luis Campusano	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SD		1B	Ty France	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	SD		C	Ethan Salas	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	SD		LF	Dustin Harris	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	WAS	1	RF	James Wood	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	2	1B	Abimelec Ortiz	4	3	2	0	0	2	1	3	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	WAS	3	LF	Dylan Crews	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	4	SS	CJ Abrams	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	5	3B	Brady House	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	6	DH	Daylen Lile	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	7	C	Keibert Ruiz	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	8	2B	Jorbit Vivas	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.000
simulation	WAS	9	CF	Jacob Young	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	SD	2	2B	Jake Cronenworth	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	4	1B	Ty France	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	SD	5	CF	Jackson Merrill	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SD	6	DH	Luis Campusano	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	SD	7	LF	Dustin Harris	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0.250
simulation	SD	8	SS	Xander Bogaerts	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	9	C	Ethan Salas	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	WAS	1	Jake Irvin	Starter	4.2	3	3	3	4	3	1	0	0	5.79	5.57	1.40
current	WAS	2	Erik Tolman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.23	0.95
current	WAS	4	Orlando Ribalta	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.77	1.21
current	WAS	5	Clayton Beeter	Closer	0.2	4	3	3	0	1	1	0	0	40.50	4.11	1.35
current	SD	1	Nick Pivetta	Starter	5.0	3	4	4	0	7	3	0	0	7.20	4.50	1.12
current	SD	2	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.82	0.99
current	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.93	1.11
current	SD	4	Mason Miller	Closer	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	6.75	1.19	0.83
simulation	WAS	1	Jake Irvin	Starter	4.2	3	3	3	4	3	1	21	93	5.79	5.57	1.40
simulation	WAS	2	Clayton Beeter	Closer	0.2	4	3	3	0	1	1	6	20	40.50	4.11	1.35
simulation	WAS	3	Orlando Ribalta	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.77	1.21
simulation	WAS	4	Erik Tolman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	21	0.00	1.23	0.95
simulation	SD	1	Nick Pivetta	Starter	5.0	3	4	4	0	7	3	19	84	7.20	4.50	1.12
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Closer	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	0	6	23	6.75	1.19	0.83
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	20	0.00	2.93	1.11
simulation	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	0	6	25	0.00	1.82	0.99

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
WAS	Jake Irvin	Starter	4.2	3	3	4	3	21	93
WAS	Erik Tolman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	1	1	5	21
WAS	Orlando Ribalta	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
WAS	Clayton Beeter	Closer	0.2	3	4	0	1	6	20
SD	Nick Pivetta	Starter	5.0	4	3	0	7	19	84
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	1	1	6	25
SD	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	20
SD	Mason Miller	Closer	1.1	1	2	0	1	6	23

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.