MLB JSON Audit Report

20260904_ARI@HOU

20260904_ARI@HOU.json • 2026-09-04

ARI 4 - HOU 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gabriel Moreno: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Lars Nootbaar: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Max Kepler: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Waldschmidt: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeremy Peña: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Taylor Trammell: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Yainer Diaz: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Walker: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match HOU pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match HOU pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match HOU pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=37 matches HOU BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match ARI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match ARI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=42 matches ARI BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.672 -> 0.615 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.6725, 'sample_size': 301, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5581, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.6153, 'published_confidence': 0.582503, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.417.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.583.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.583.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.479/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 5, HOU 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 4 - HOU 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for HOU.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5825032, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_ARI@HOU.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@HOU.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024339357162644664}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.024299854506829532}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022936748072765623}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022899521844538553}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02288460639968792}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03130352797720104, '1': 0.054017017997398616, '2': 0.08258953268693411, '3': 0.11188619289450308, '4': 0.1343028004769298, '5': 0.1428402906154408, '6': 0.134608804110708, '7': 0.11239663029362279, '8': 0.08315535090370892, '9': 0.05451100567257442, '10': 0.031661776039178156, '11': 0.01629458991581074, '12': 0.007430339917118373, '13': 0.0030021404988714094}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06006630543281374, '1': 0.10100415017863941, '2': 0.14290471615277575, '3': 0.1701190497592194, '4': 0.17039560097348067, '5': 0.14360278177411795, '6': 0.10182780235708246, '7': 0.06075316849939622, '8': 0.03049794231977182, '9': 0.012881640904909045, '10': 0.004577948280318913, '11': 0.0013688933674747556}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2837, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.444, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.029}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 6 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 6 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.038, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.444, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'HOU', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.029, 'winner': 'HOU', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 184.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 184.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 4 - 6 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 4 - 6 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=HOU, simulation=HOU, published=HOU.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.583.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): HOU wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: HOU wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: HOU wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match HOU pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match HOU pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match HOU pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=37 matches HOU BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match ARI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match ARI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=42 matches ARI BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.672 -> 0.615 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.6725, 'sample_size': 301, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5581, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.6153, 'published_confidence': 0.582503, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.417.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.583.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.583.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.479/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 5, HOU 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 4 - HOU 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for HOU.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5825032, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_ARI@HOU.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@HOU.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024339357162644664}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.024299854506829532}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022936748072765623}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022899521844538553}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02288460639968792}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03130352797720104, '1': 0.054017017997398616, '2': 0.08258953268693411, '3': 0.11188619289450308, '4': 0.1343028004769298, '5': 0.1428402906154408, '6': 0.134608804110708, '7': 0.11239663029362279, '8': 0.08315535090370892, '9': 0.05451100567257442, '10': 0.031661776039178156, '11': 0.01629458991581074, '12': 0.007430339917118373, '13': 0.0030021404988714094}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06006630543281374, '1': 0.10100415017863941, '2': 0.14290471615277575, '3': 0.1701190497592194, '4': 0.17039560097348067, '5': 0.14360278177411795, '6': 0.10182780235708246, '7': 0.06075316849939622, '8': 0.03049794231977182, '9': 0.012881640904909045, '10': 0.004577948280318913, '11': 0.0013688933674747556}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2837, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.444, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.029}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 6 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 6 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.038, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.444, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'HOU', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.029, 'winner': 'HOU', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 184.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 184.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 4 - 6 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 4 - 6 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=HOU, simulation=HOU, published=HOU.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.583.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): HOU wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: HOU wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: HOU wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gabriel Moreno: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Lars Nootbaar: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Max Kepler: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Waldschmidt: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeremy Peña: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Taylor Trammell: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Yainer Diaz: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Walker: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.329852233044903	4.703996342768581		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.583	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	5
HOU	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4	6	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ARI	batting	34	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		11			2		6	5	7					8.0	6	0	0
current	HOU	batting	35	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		5			1		4	3	7					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	ARI	batting	32	5	1	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	2
simulation	ARI	pitching		11			2		6	5	7					8.2	6	42	184
simulation	HOU	batting	37	11	2	0	2	6	6	5	7	0	0
simulation	HOU	pitching		5			1		4	3	7					9.0	4	37	163

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	ARI		C	Gabriel Moreno	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	ARI		SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		2B	Ketel Marte	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		DH	Lars Nootbaar	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		3B	Nolan Arenado	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		RF	Corbin Carroll	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		LF	Max Kepler	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		1B	Tim Tawa	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	HOU		SS	Jeremy Peña	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	HOU		DH	Yordan Alvarez	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	HOU		RF	Taylor Trammell	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	HOU		2B	Jose Altuve	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		LF	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	HOU		C	Yainer Diaz	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		CF	Daulton Varsho	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		1B	Christian Walker	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	1	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	ARI	2	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	3	C	Gabriel Moreno	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	4	2B	Ketel Marte	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	ARI	5	DH	Lars Nootbaar	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	6	3B	Nolan Arenado	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ARI	7	LF	Max Kepler	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	8	1B	Tim Tawa	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	9	CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	1	SS	Jeremy Peña	5	4	2	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	HOU	2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	5	5	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	HOU	3	3B	Isaac Paredes	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	4	2B	Jose Altuve	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	HOU	5	CF	Daulton Varsho	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	HOU	6	1B	Christian Walker	5	4	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	7	RF	Taylor Trammell	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	HOU	8	C	Yainer Diaz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	9	LF	LaMonte Wade Jr.	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ARI	1	Merrill Kelly	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	4	3	0	0	0	5.40	5.08	1.48
current	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.74	0.68
current	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.54	0.98
current	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	27.00	2.80	1.11
current	ARI	5	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	4	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	27.00	3.04	1.12
current	HOU	1	Cristian Javier	Starter	4.1	5	4	4	3	3	1	0	0	8.31	6.45	1.63
current	HOU	2	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.02	1.17
current	HOU	3	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.86	1.36
current	HOU	4	Josh Hader	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.48	0.59
current	HOU	5	Steven Okert	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.13	0.87
current	HOU	6	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.45	1.19
simulation	ARI	1	Merrill Kelly	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	4	3	0	26	106	5.40	5.08	1.48
simulation	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	29	0.00	1.74	0.68
simulation	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	19	0.00	2.54	0.98
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	2	1	1	0	1	0	3	10	27.00	2.80	1.11
simulation	ARI	5	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	4	2	2	0	0	2	6	20	13.50	3.04	1.12
simulation	HOU	1	Cristian Javier	Starter	4.1	5	4	4	3	3	1	23	94	8.31	6.45	1.63
simulation	HOU	2	Josh Hader	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	0.48	0.59
simulation	HOU	3	Steven Okert	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	2.13	0.87
simulation	HOU	4	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.86	1.36
simulation	HOU	5	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	26	0.00	3.02	1.17
simulation	HOU	6	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	0.00	4.45	1.19

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ARI	Merrill Kelly	Starter	5.0	3	5	4	3	26	106
ARI	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	29
ARI	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	19
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	1	2	0	1	3	10
ARI	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	4	0	0	6	20
HOU	Cristian Javier	Starter	4.1	4	5	3	3	23	94
HOU	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	26
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
HOU	Josh Hader	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
HOU	Steven Okert	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
HOU	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	4

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260904_ATL@PHI

20260904_ATL@PHI.json • 2026-09-04

ATL 4 - PHI 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Lane Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=11; HR: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryan De La Cruz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; J.T. Realmuto: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: AB current=5 box=4; Kyle Schwarber: RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=5 box=3, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match PHI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match PHI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=40 matches PHI BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match ATL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=36 matches ATL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.639 -> 0.601 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.638747, 'sample_size': 295, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5627, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.600724, 'published_confidence': 0.559934, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.695/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 11, PHI 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - PHI 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'PHI', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-04-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-04-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ATL', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 PHI', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 PHI', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1197, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.318, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4464, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_ATL@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@PHI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03168343348015209}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02973622806771055}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02909490111381691}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02890989274118782}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02801368389047813}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08017724460141717, '1': 0.13244062432161127, '2': 0.17762902924272772, '3': 0.19343243374982, '4': 0.17102802499697073, '5': 0.12278007541969124, '6': 0.07156672468220754, '7': 0.03387014208215237, '8': 0.013015040560804773, '9': 0.004060660342597352}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.050133126284396846, '1': 0.0850486658553936, '2': 0.12356005803823868, '3': 0.15372927637446024, '4': 0.1637958684898239, '5': 0.1494573178900238, '6': 0.1167882918301834, '7': 0.07815365788802499, '8': 0.04478856967654663, '9': 0.02198127898937394, '10': 0.009238609365816197, '11': 0.003325279317717913}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6286, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.108, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4464}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 PHI', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 PHI', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1197, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.318, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4464, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 4 - 3 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 3 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ATL, simulation=ATL, published=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match PHI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match PHI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=40 matches PHI BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match ATL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=36 matches ATL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.639 -> 0.601 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.638747, 'sample_size': 295, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5627, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.600724, 'published_confidence': 0.559934, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.695/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 11, PHI 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - PHI 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'PHI', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-04-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-04-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ATL', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 PHI', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 PHI', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1197, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.318, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4464, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_ATL@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@PHI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03168343348015209}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02973622806771055}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02909490111381691}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02890989274118782}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02801368389047813}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08017724460141717, '1': 0.13244062432161127, '2': 0.17762902924272772, '3': 0.19343243374982, '4': 0.17102802499697073, '5': 0.12278007541969124, '6': 0.07156672468220754, '7': 0.03387014208215237, '8': 0.013015040560804773, '9': 0.004060660342597352}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.050133126284396846, '1': 0.0850486658553936, '2': 0.12356005803823868, '3': 0.15372927637446024, '4': 0.1637958684898239, '5': 0.1494573178900238, '6': 0.1167882918301834, '7': 0.07815365788802499, '8': 0.04478856967654663, '9': 0.02198127898937394, '10': 0.009238609365816197, '11': 0.003325279317717913}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6286, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.108, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4464}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 PHI', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 PHI', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1197, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.318, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4464, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 4 - 3 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 3 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ATL, simulation=ATL, published=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Lane Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=11; HR: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryan De La Cruz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; J.T. Realmuto: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: AB current=5 box=4; Kyle Schwarber: RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=5 box=3, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.05442542462138	3.937692634252369		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	4	11
PHI	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	36	9	1	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		8			2		3	1	6					9.0	3	0	0
current	PHI	batting	35	8	2	0	1	5	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		10			0		4	2	9					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	38	11	1	0	1	4	4	2	9	0	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		8			2		3	1	6					9.0	3	36	131
simulation	PHI	batting	35	8	2	0	2	3	3	1	6	0	0
simulation	PHI	pitching		11			1		4	2	9					9.0	4	40	165

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	ATL		DH	Drake Baldwin	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	ATL		CF	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	ATL		C	Sean Murphy	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		LF	Lane Thomas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		SS	Ha-Seong Kim	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	PHI		RF	Bryce Harper	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	PHI		1B	Alec Bohm	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	PHI		3B	Edmundo Sosa	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	PHI		LF	Bryan De La Cruz	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	PHI		C	J.T. Realmuto	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	PHI		2B	Luis Arraez	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	PHI		CF	Derek Hill	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ATL	1	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	ATL	2	DH	Drake Baldwin	5	5	3	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.600
simulation	ATL	3	2B	Ozzie Albies	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.400
simulation	ATL	4	1B	Matt Olson	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	ATL	5	LF	Lane Thomas	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	ATL	6	CF	Mauricio Dubón	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ATL	7	C	Sean Murphy	4	4	2	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.500
simulation	ATL	8	3B	Austin Riley	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ATL	9	SS	Ha-Seong Kim	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	PHI	2	SS	Trea Turner	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	PHI	3	RF	Bryce Harper	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	4	2B	Luis Arraez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	PHI	5	1B	Alec Bohm	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	6	3B	Edmundo Sosa	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	PHI	7	LF	Bryan De La Cruz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	PHI	8	C	J.T. Realmuto	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	9	CF	Derek Hill	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Chris Sale	Starter	6.1	6	2	2	0	6	1	0	0	2.84	2.06	1.00
current	ATL	2	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.36	0.84
current	ATL	3	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	2.82	1.18
current	ATL	4	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.37	1.12
current	PHI	1	Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	6.1	8	3	3	1	7	0	0	0	4.26	2.52	1.19
current	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.25	0.99
current	PHI	3	Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.94	0.98
current	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13.50	3.86	1.29
simulation	ATL	1	Chris Sale	Starter	6.1	6	2	2	0	6	1	25	98	2.84	2.06	1.00
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	16	9.00	2.82	1.18
simulation	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	6	0.00	2.36	0.84
simulation	ATL	4	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	2.37	1.12
simulation	PHI	1	Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	6.1	8	2	2	1	7	0	28	118	2.84	2.52	1.19
simulation	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.25	0.99
simulation	PHI	3	Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.94	0.98
simulation	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	3	2	2	0	0	1	5	17	27.00	3.86	1.29

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Chris Sale	Starter	6.1	2	6	0	6	25	98
ATL	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	6
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
ATL	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	1	0	0	3	11
PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	6.1	2	8	1	7	28	118
PHI	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
PHI	Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17
PHI	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	2	3	0	0	5	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260904_BOS@BAL

20260904_BOS@BAL.json • 2026-09-04

BOS 4 - BAL 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=6; RBI: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: H current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Blaze Alexander: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Luis Robert Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: AB current=5 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jackson Holliday: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Mickey Gasper: H current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Caleb Durbin: AB current=3 box=4; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Eli White: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Sogard: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match BOS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match BOS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=35 matches BOS BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=36 matches BAL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.677 -> 0.620 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.676856, 'sample_size': 270, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.563, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.619928, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.500/0.682.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 4, BAL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 4 - BAL 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BAL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BAL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'BOS', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260903', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260903_BOS@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260722', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260722_BAL@BOS_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260720', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260720_BAL@BOS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BAL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'output_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BAL', 'final_score_winner': 'BAL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 6 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 6 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0092, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.642, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'BAL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2556, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_BOS@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@BAL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0288, 'away_run_delta': -0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021333319922350335}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02109727451443242}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020008280495755728}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019786896166052375}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01959871920357305}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.024572627090541702, '1': 0.042674808147469094, '2': 0.06651414084687673, '3': 0.09304195240859296, '4': 0.11680624573353324, '5': 0.13160601436194308, '6': 0.1330784792210065, '7': 0.12077091108718682, '8': 0.09836470117752491, '9': 0.07190161284701052, '10': 0.04716940614813817, '11': 0.02777183689304613, '12': 0.0146747673319437, '13': 0.006959215154288767, '14': 0.002961909085048822, '15': 0.001131372465848741}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04672518039287791, '1': 0.0795096874600494, '2': 0.11657614002683518, '3': 0.1472718903784962, '4': 0.1603063098348276, '5': 0.15034948259761458, '6': 0.12149931350665433, '7': 0.08459920378280018, '8': 0.05075505380454007, '9': 0.026236921426837475, '10': 0.011686030681498039, '11': 0.004484786106968953}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.7766, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.712, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.2556}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 6 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 6 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0092, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.642, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'BAL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2556, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 4 - 6 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 4 - 6 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BAL wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BAL, simulation=BAL, published=BAL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BAL wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BAL wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BAL wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match BOS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match BOS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=35 matches BOS BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=36 matches BAL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.677 -> 0.620 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.676856, 'sample_size': 270, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.563, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.619928, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.500/0.682.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 4, BAL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 4 - BAL 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BAL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BAL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'BOS', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260903', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260903_BOS@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260722', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260722_BAL@BOS_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260720', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260720_BAL@BOS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BAL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'output_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BAL', 'final_score_winner': 'BAL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 6 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 6 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0092, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.642, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'BAL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2556, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_BOS@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@BAL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0288, 'away_run_delta': -0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021333319922350335}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02109727451443242}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020008280495755728}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019786896166052375}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01959871920357305}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.024572627090541702, '1': 0.042674808147469094, '2': 0.06651414084687673, '3': 0.09304195240859296, '4': 0.11680624573353324, '5': 0.13160601436194308, '6': 0.1330784792210065, '7': 0.12077091108718682, '8': 0.09836470117752491, '9': 0.07190161284701052, '10': 0.04716940614813817, '11': 0.02777183689304613, '12': 0.0146747673319437, '13': 0.006959215154288767, '14': 0.002961909085048822, '15': 0.001131372465848741}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04672518039287791, '1': 0.0795096874600494, '2': 0.11657614002683518, '3': 0.1472718903784962, '4': 0.1603063098348276, '5': 0.15034948259761458, '6': 0.12149931350665433, '7': 0.08459920378280018, '8': 0.05075505380454007, '9': 0.026236921426837475, '10': 0.011686030681498039, '11': 0.004484786106968953}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.7766, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.712, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.2556}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 6 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 6 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0092, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.642, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'BAL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2556, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 4 - 6 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 4 - 6 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BAL wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BAL, simulation=BAL, published=BAL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BAL wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BAL wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BAL wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=6; RBI: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: H current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Blaze Alexander: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Luis Robert Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: AB current=5 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jackson Holliday: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Mickey Gasper: H current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Caleb Durbin: AB current=3 box=4; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Eli White: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Sogard: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.627737118209094	3.8936880678648325		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	6	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4
BAL	0	2	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	6	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BOS	batting	34	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		6			1		6	4	4					8.0	6	0	0
current	BAL	batting	33	8	1	0	1	5	6	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		4			0		4	4	6					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	BOS	batting	31	4	2	0	0	4	4	4	6	0	1
simulation	BOS	pitching		6			1		6	4	4					8.0	6	35	144
simulation	BAL	batting	29	6	1	0	1	6	6	4	4	1	1
simulation	BAL	pitching		4			0		4	4	6					9.0	4	36	160

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	BOS		DH	Roman Anthony	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		1B	Mickey Gasper	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		C	Adley Rutschman	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		CF	Eli White	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		2B	Nick Sogard	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		LF	Jarren Duran	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		SS	Trevor Story	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		DH	Coby Mayo	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		RF	Blaze Alexander	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		CF	Luis Robert Jr.	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	BAL		SS	Gunnar Henderson	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	BAL		LF	Leody Taveras	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	0.200
current	BAL		2B	Jackson Holliday	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		C	Carlos Narváez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	1	DH	Roman Anthony	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	2	1B	Mickey Gasper	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	3	C	Adley Rutschman	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	BOS	5	2B	Nick Sogard	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	6	3B	Caleb Durbin	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	7	LF	Jarren Duran	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	BOS	8	SS	Trevor Story	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	9	CF	Eli White	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	1	RF	Blaze Alexander	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	2	DH	Coby Mayo	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	3	1B	Pete Alonso	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	4	CF	Luis Robert Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	5	SS	Gunnar Henderson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	6	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4	4	2	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	BAL	7	2B	Jackson Holliday	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	BAL	8	C	Carlos Narváez	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	BAL	9	LF	Leody Taveras	3	3	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.667

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BOS	1	Ranger Suarez	Starter	5.0	2	3	3	2	2	0	0	0	5.40	3.64	1.24
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.54	1.07
current	BOS	3	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	18.00	2.00	1.22
current	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	1.96	0.85
current	BAL	1	Shane Baz	Starter	5.2	4	4	4	1	6	0	0	0	6.35	4.01	1.35
current	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.27	1.39
current	BAL	3	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.56	0.89
current	BAL	4	Josh Walker	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.14	1.29
current	BAL	5	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.42	0.90
simulation	BOS	1	Ranger Suarez	Starter	5.0	2	3	3	2	2	0	20	85	5.40	3.64	1.24
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	1.54	1.07
simulation	BOS	3	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	0	6	23	18.00	2.00	1.22
simulation	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	1	5	19	9.00	1.96	0.85
simulation	BAL	1	Shane Baz	Starter	5.2	4	4	4	1	6	0	23	99	6.35	4.01	1.35
simulation	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	24	0.00	3.27	1.39
simulation	BAL	3	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	21	0.00	2.56	0.89
simulation	BAL	4	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.00	2.42	0.90
simulation	BAL	5	Josh Walker	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.00	2.14	1.29

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BOS	Ranger Suarez	Starter	5.0	3	2	2	2	20	85
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
BOS	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	1	0	6	23
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	19
BAL	Shane Baz	Starter	5.2	4	4	1	6	23	99
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	24
BAL	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	2	0	5	21
BAL	Josh Walker	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8
BAL	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260904_CHC@MIA

20260904_CHC@MIA.json • 2026-09-04

CHC 6 - MIA 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=2, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Pedro Ramirez: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carson Kelly: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Griffin Conine: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Esteury Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Deyvison De Los Santos: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jared Serna: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Agustín Ramírez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match MIA pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=41 matches MIA BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match CHC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match CHC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match CHC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=37 matches CHC BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.857 -> 0.703 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.857211, 'sample_size': 111, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5495, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.703355, 'published_confidence': 0.724519, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.725.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.725.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.275.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.660/0.868.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 11, MIA 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 6 - MIA 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.724519, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_CHC@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@MIA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.02312688368709806}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.022176893559184067}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.0221450738289849}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021855713190081786}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.021235413807163695}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06713388413574281, '1': 0.1121881416861558, '2': 0.1557919234762703, '3': 0.17977766267401843, '4': 0.1723928802247061, '5': 0.1373712110259555, '6': 0.09096303317901182, '7': 0.05005263499542947, '8': 0.022886625495854667, '9': 0.008696197330423, '10': 0.0027458057764319765}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.020473251957149125, '1': 0.03570257577570827, '2': 0.05634042918247752, '3': 0.08045418417604404, '4': 0.10396448407464033, '5': 0.12157079397406353, '6': 0.12864158618544755, '7': 0.12318034120367569, '8': 0.10673560154444263, '9': 0.08369221929438736, '10': 0.05938390456928842, '11': 0.03812942867277999, '12': 0.022154386557317357, '13': 0.011648420591779854, '14': 0.005542200595112785, '15': 0.0023861916456856835}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.9291, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.408, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.7467}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 3 MIA', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 3 MIA', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0698, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.408, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7467, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 6 - 3 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 6 - 3 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.725.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-3, final 6-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match MIA pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=41 matches MIA BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match CHC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match CHC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match CHC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=37 matches CHC BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.857 -> 0.703 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.857211, 'sample_size': 111, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5495, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.703355, 'published_confidence': 0.724519, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.725.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.725.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.275.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.660/0.868.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 11, MIA 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 6 - MIA 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.724519, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_CHC@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@MIA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.02312688368709806}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.022176893559184067}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.0221450738289849}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021855713190081786}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.021235413807163695}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06713388413574281, '1': 0.1121881416861558, '2': 0.1557919234762703, '3': 0.17977766267401843, '4': 0.1723928802247061, '5': 0.1373712110259555, '6': 0.09096303317901182, '7': 0.05005263499542947, '8': 0.022886625495854667, '9': 0.008696197330423, '10': 0.0027458057764319765}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.020473251957149125, '1': 0.03570257577570827, '2': 0.05634042918247752, '3': 0.08045418417604404, '4': 0.10396448407464033, '5': 0.12157079397406353, '6': 0.12864158618544755, '7': 0.12318034120367569, '8': 0.10673560154444263, '9': 0.08369221929438736, '10': 0.05938390456928842, '11': 0.03812942867277999, '12': 0.022154386557317357, '13': 0.011648420591779854, '14': 0.005542200595112785, '15': 0.0023861916456856835}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.9291, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.408, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.7467}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 3 MIA', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 3 MIA', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0698, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.408, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7467, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 6 - 3 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 6 - 3 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.725.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-3, final 6-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=2, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Pedro Ramirez: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carson Kelly: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Griffin Conine: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Esteury Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Deyvison De Los Santos: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jared Serna: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Agustín Ramírez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.9205256249611455	3.1730099355983503		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	3		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6	3	0.725	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	6	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	1	0	1	0	2	0	2	0	0	6	11
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	4

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHC	batting	35	8	2	0	2	6	5	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		4			0		3	6	10					9.0	3	0	0
current	MIA	batting	32	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		11			1		6	3	8					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	CHC	batting	38	11	3	0	1	6	6	3	8	0	0
simulation	CHC	pitching		4			0		3	6	10					9.0	3	37	167
simulation	MIA	batting	31	4	3	0	0	3	3	6	10	0	0
simulation	MIA	pitching		11			1		6	3	8					9.0	6	41	157

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CHC		RF	Seiya Suzuki	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	CHC		SS	Nico Hoerner	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		3B	Alex Bregman	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		2B	Pedro Ramirez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHC		LF	Ian Happ	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		C	Carson Kelly	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		DH	Michael Conforto	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
current	MIA		RF	Griffin Conine	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		3B	Javier Sanoja	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	MIA		CF	Esteury Ruiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		1B	Deyvison De Los Santos	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		2B	Jared Serna	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
current	MIA		LF	Heriberto Hernández	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	MIA		DH	Agustín Ramírez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	MIA		C	Brian Navarreto	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.400
simulation	CHC	2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	5	5	3	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.600
simulation	CHC	3	1B	Michael Busch	5	4	2	1	0	1	2	1	0	0.500
simulation	CHC	4	3B	Alex Bregman	5	5	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0.200
simulation	CHC	5	LF	Ian Happ	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CHC	6	SS	Nico Hoerner	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHC	7	2B	Pedro Ramirez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	8	DH	Michael Conforto	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	CHC	9	C	Carson Kelly	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIA	1	LF	Heriberto Hernández	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	3	0.200
simulation	MIA	2	SS	Otto Lopez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	MIA	3	RF	Griffin Conine	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIA	4	3B	Javier Sanoja	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIA	5	DH	Agustín Ramírez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	6	CF	Esteury Ruiz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIA	7	1B	Deyvison De Los Santos	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	8	2B	Jared Serna	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	1	2	0.333
simulation	MIA	9	C	Brian Navarreto	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHC	1	Shota Imanaga	Starter	5.1	2	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	0.00	4.01	1.14
current	CHC	2	Colin Rea	Setup Man	1.1	2	3	3	2	2	0	0	0	20.25	4.45	1.35
current	CHC	3	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.15	1.23
current	CHC	4	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.20	1.20
current	MIA	1	Janson Junk	Starter	5.0	7	4	4	1	4	1	0	0	7.20	4.11	1.30
current	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.77	1.31
current	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.30	1.13
current	MIA	4	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	18.00	4.50	1.34
current	MIA	5	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.34	1.51
simulation	CHC	1	Shota Imanaga	Starter	5.1	2	0	0	3	5	0	21	97	0.00	4.01	1.14
simulation	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	21	0.00	3.15	1.23
simulation	CHC	3	Colin Rea	Setup Man	1.1	2	3	3	2	2	0	8	36	20.25	4.45	1.35
simulation	CHC	4	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	3.20	1.20
simulation	MIA	1	Janson Junk	Starter	5.0	7	4	4	1	4	1	23	88	7.20	4.11	1.30
simulation	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.77	1.31
simulation	MIA	3	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	6	19	18.00	4.50	1.34
simulation	MIA	4	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	20	0.00	3.30	1.13
simulation	MIA	5	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	4.34	1.51

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHC	Shota Imanaga	Starter	5.1	0	2	3	5	21	97
CHC	Colin Rea	Setup Man	1.1	3	2	2	2	8	36
CHC	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.1	0	0	1	1	5	21
CHC	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
MIA	Janson Junk	Starter	5.0	4	7	1	4	23	88
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
MIA	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	20
MIA	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.0	2	3	0	0	6	19
MIA	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260904_DET@CLE

20260904_DET@CLE.json • 2026-09-04

DET 3 - CLE 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Jo Adell: SO current=1 box=2; José Ramírez: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Travis Bazzana: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Genao: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Chase DeLauter: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1; Nathaniel Lowe: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Patrick Bailey: SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gleyber Torres: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ben Malgeri: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Max Clark: 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=3 box=4; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Torkelson: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match DET pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match DET pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match DET pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=34 matches DET BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match CLE pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match CLE pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=38 matches CLE BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.522 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 384, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5339, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.522, 'published_confidence': 0.525093, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.475.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.525.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.525.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.603/0.801.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 8, CLE 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 3 - CLE 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-08-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-08-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'DET'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260813', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260813_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260812', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260812_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260811', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260811_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0114, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.83, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0337, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_DET@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': -0.0, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0359929051038467}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.033039397542110195}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.03271955200007136}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03227801094124014}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03217917844818545}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07424592244263398, '1': 0.12330140312529564, '2': 0.16804929662260448, '3': 0.18796571813804844, '4': 0.17254161807537727, '5': 0.1299817421706361, '6': 0.08036077374580551, '7': 0.04077360719060456, '8': 0.01697803515765973, '9': 0.005801883331334281}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.077938227706582, '1': 0.12900289540024637, '2': 0.1740719122837123, '3': 0.1914865405265671, '4': 0.17172286128013015, '5': 0.12554467292752183, '6': 0.07482535282497477, '7': 0.036356290710265415, '8': 0.014400934393783857, '9': 0.00465031194621614}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3573, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.76, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0337}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0114, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.83, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0337, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 3 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 3 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.525.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match DET pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match DET pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match DET pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=34 matches DET BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match CLE pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match CLE pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=38 matches CLE BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.522 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 384, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5339, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.522, 'published_confidence': 0.525093, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.475.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.525.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.525.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.603/0.801.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 8, CLE 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 3 - CLE 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-08-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-08-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'DET'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260813', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260813_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260812', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260812_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260811', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260811_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0114, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.83, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0337, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_DET@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': -0.0, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0359929051038467}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.033039397542110195}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.03271955200007136}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03227801094124014}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03217917844818545}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07424592244263398, '1': 0.12330140312529564, '2': 0.16804929662260448, '3': 0.18796571813804844, '4': 0.17254161807537727, '5': 0.1299817421706361, '6': 0.08036077374580551, '7': 0.04077360719060456, '8': 0.01697803515765973, '9': 0.005801883331334281}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.077938227706582, '1': 0.12900289540024637, '2': 0.1740719122837123, '3': 0.1914865405265671, '4': 0.17172286128013015, '5': 0.12554467292752183, '6': 0.07482535282497477, '7': 0.036356290710265415, '8': 0.014400934393783857, '9': 0.00465031194621614}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3573, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.76, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0337}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0114, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.83, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0337, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 3 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 3 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.525.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Jo Adell: SO current=1 box=2; José Ramírez: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Travis Bazzana: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Genao: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Chase DeLauter: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1; Nathaniel Lowe: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Patrick Bailey: SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gleyber Torres: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ben Malgeri: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Max Clark: 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=3 box=4; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Torkelson: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.458831464831952	3.861756773297834		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.525	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	8
CLE	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	DET	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		8			2		4	2	8					8.0	4	0	0
current	CLE	batting	35	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	6	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		8			1		3	3	7					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	DET	batting	35	8	1	0	1	3	3	3	7	0	0
simulation	DET	pitching		8			2		4	2	8					8.0	4	34	144
simulation	CLE	batting	32	8	2	1	2	4	4	2	8	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		8			1		3	3	7					9.0	3	38	156

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	DET		DH	Gleyber Torres	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	DET		3B	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	DET		RF	Ben Malgeri	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		C	Dillon Dingler	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.200
current	DET		CF	Max Clark	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	DET		2B	Hao-Yu Lee	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		LF	Riley Greene	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	DET		1B	Spencer Torkelson	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		SS	Javier Báez	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.000
current	CLE		CF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		LF	Jo Adell	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		DH	José Ramírez	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	CLE		3B	Angel Genao	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		RF	Chase DeLauter	0	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	CLE		1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		C	Patrick Bailey	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	DET	1	DH	Gleyber Torres	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	DET	2	3B	Kevin McGonigle	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.400
simulation	DET	3	2B	Hao-Yu Lee	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	DET	4	C	Dillon Dingler	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	DET	5	LF	Riley Greene	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	DET	6	RF	Ben Malgeri	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	DET	7	1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	DET	8	CF	Max Clark	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	DET	9	SS	Javier Báez	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	1	CF	Steven Kwan	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	CLE	2	RF	Chase DeLauter	4	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	CLE	3	DH	José Ramírez	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	CLE	4	LF	Jo Adell	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	CLE	5	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.667
simulation	CLE	6	3B	Angel Genao	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	7	2B	Travis Bazzana	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	8	C	Patrick Bailey	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	DET	1	Keider Montero	Starter	6.0	5	2	2	2	7	1	0	0	3.00	3.24	0.99
current	DET	2	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	2.95	1.28
current	DET	6	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	3.50	1.17
current	CLE	1	Logan Allen	Starter	3.0	2	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0.00	3.77	1.47
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.36	1.08
current	CLE	3	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	13.50	2.05	0.95
current	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	2.75	1.14
current	CLE	5	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.83	1.20
simulation	DET	1	Keider Montero	Starter	6.0	5	2	2	2	7	1	25	109	3.00	3.24	0.99
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	5	19	9.00	3.50	1.17
simulation	DET	3	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	16	9.00	2.95	1.28
simulation	CLE	1	Logan Allen	Starter	3.0	2	0	0	2	3	0	13	58	0.00	3.77	1.47
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	21	0.00	2.36	1.08
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	7	28	0.00	2.83	1.20
simulation	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	1	5	19	9.00	2.75	1.14
simulation	CLE	5	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	3	2	2	1	1	0	8	30	13.50	2.05	0.95

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
DET	Keider Montero	Starter	6.0	2	5	2	7	25	109
DET	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
DET	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	19
CLE	Logan Allen	Starter	3.0	0	2	2	3	13	58
CLE	Cade Smith	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	1	5	21
CLE	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	3	1	1	8	30
CLE	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	19
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	2.0	0	1	0	1	7	28

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260904_DET@CLE_2

20260904_DET@CLE_2.json • 2026-09-04

DET 3 - CLE 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Angel Genao: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: AB current=5 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gleyber Torres: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Ben Malgeri: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Spencer Torkelson: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Max Clark: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match DET pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=36 matches DET BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match CLE pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match CLE pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=35 matches CLE BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.586 -> 0.564 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5864, 'sample_size': 472, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5424, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5644, 'published_confidence': 0.554402, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.446.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.554.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.554.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.530/0.717.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 4, CLE 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 3 - CLE 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.58, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-08-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-08-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'DET'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260813', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260813_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260812', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260812_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260811', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260811_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0588, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.83, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0337, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_DET@CLE_2.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': -0.0, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03126745227067852}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029661615570665698}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.028484904387846923}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02814037494480939}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02810623362151993}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0518468870072935, '1': 0.08782159243652142, '2': 0.12700464953131613, '3': 0.15681139688149193, '4': 0.16530093769873624, '5': 0.14876908822958834, '6': 0.11431146113669173, '7': 0.07499055039018318, '8': 0.04200132554036252, '9': 0.020084412979922254, '10': 0.00819964366446182, '11': 0.002858054503430896}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07544751279063107, '1': 0.12516125743220594, '2': 0.1700306968176068, '3': 0.18915471809158144, '4': 0.17232149305626532, '5': 0.12855653137070217, '6': 0.07853825903532265, '7': 0.03929170010873414, '8': 0.01609729110924141, '9': 0.005400540187708975}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3573, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.76, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0337}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0588, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.83, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0337, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 3 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 3 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.554.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match DET pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=36 matches DET BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match CLE pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match CLE pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=35 matches CLE BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.586 -> 0.564 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5864, 'sample_size': 472, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5424, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5644, 'published_confidence': 0.554402, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.446.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.554.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.554.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.530/0.717.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 4, CLE 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 3 - CLE 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.58, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-08-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-08-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'DET'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260813', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260813_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260812', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260812_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260811', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260811_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0588, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.83, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0337, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_DET@CLE_2.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': -0.0, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03126745227067852}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029661615570665698}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.028484904387846923}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02814037494480939}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02810623362151993}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0518468870072935, '1': 0.08782159243652142, '2': 0.12700464953131613, '3': 0.15681139688149193, '4': 0.16530093769873624, '5': 0.14876908822958834, '6': 0.11431146113669173, '7': 0.07499055039018318, '8': 0.04200132554036252, '9': 0.020084412979922254, '10': 0.00819964366446182, '11': 0.002858054503430896}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07544751279063107, '1': 0.12516125743220594, '2': 0.1700306968176068, '3': 0.18915471809158144, '4': 0.17232149305626532, '5': 0.12855653137070217, '6': 0.07853825903532265, '7': 0.03929170010873414, '8': 0.01609729110924141, '9': 0.005400540187708975}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3573, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.76, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0337}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0588, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.83, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0337, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 3 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 3 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.554.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Angel Genao: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: AB current=5 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gleyber Torres: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Ben Malgeri: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Spencer Torkelson: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Max Clark: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.013420160146383	4.7701981897733035		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.554	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	4
CLE	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	1	4	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	DET	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		7			2		4	5	8					8.0	4	0	0
current	CLE	batting	35	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		4			1		3	3	5					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	DET	batting	31	4	1	0	1	3	3	3	5	0	1
simulation	DET	pitching		7			2		4	5	8					8.0	4	36	163
simulation	CLE	batting	31	7	2	0	2	4	4	5	8	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		4			1		3	3	5					9.0	3	35	144

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	DET		DH	Gleyber Torres	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		3B	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		RF	Ben Malgeri	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		LF	Riley Greene	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		1B	Spencer Torkelson	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	DET		C	Dillon Dingler	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	DET		2B	Hao-Yu Lee	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		CF	Max Clark	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		SS	Javier Báez	0	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	CLE		CF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	CLE		DH	José Ramírez	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	CLE		LF	Jo Adell	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		3B	Angel Genao	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		RF	Chase DeLauter	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	CLE		C	Patrick Bailey	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	DET	1	DH	Gleyber Torres	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	DET	2	3B	Kevin McGonigle	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	DET	3	2B	Hao-Yu Lee	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	DET	4	C	Dillon Dingler	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	DET	5	LF	Riley Greene	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	DET	6	RF	Ben Malgeri	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	DET	7	1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	DET	8	CF	Max Clark	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	DET	9	SS	Javier Báez	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.500
simulation	CLE	1	CF	Steven Kwan	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	2	RF	Chase DeLauter	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	CLE	3	DH	José Ramírez	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	CLE	4	LF	Jo Adell	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	CLE	5	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	6	3B	Angel Genao	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	7	2B	Travis Bazzana	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	8	C	Patrick Bailey	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	DET	1	Andrew Sears	Starter	3.1	3	1	1	3	5	1	0	0	2.70	6.75	1.35
current	DET	2	Jacob Waguespack	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	6.75	2.60	0.92
current	DET	3	Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.07	1.12
current	DET	4	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.95	1.28
current	DET	5	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.30	1.48
current	DET	6	Kenley Jansen	Closer	0.2	3	2	2	0	2	0	0	0	27.00	3.50	1.17
current	CLE	1	Foster Griffin	Starter	5.2	4	3	3	3	5	1	0	0	4.76	3.21	1.12
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.36	1.08
current	CLE	3	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.75	1.14
current	CLE	5	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.83	1.20
simulation	DET	1	Andrew Sears	Starter	3.1	3	1	1	3	5	1	16	75	2.70	6.75	1.35
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Closer	0.2	3	2	2	0	2	0	5	17	27.00	3.50	1.17
simulation	DET	3	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.95	1.28
simulation	DET	4	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	12	0.00	3.30	1.48
simulation	DET	5	Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.07	1.12
simulation	DET	6	Jacob Waguespack	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	1	5	29	6.75	2.60	0.92
simulation	CLE	1	Foster Griffin	Starter	5.2	4	3	3	3	5	1	25	102	4.76	3.21	1.12
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	2.36	1.08
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.00	2.83	1.20
simulation	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.75	1.14

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
DET	Andrew Sears	Starter	3.1	1	3	3	5	16	75
DET	Jacob Waguespack	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	0	0	5	29
DET	Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
DET	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
DET	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	1	0	3	12
DET	Kenley Jansen	Closer	0.2	2	3	0	2	5	17
CLE	Foster Griffin	Starter	5.2	3	4	3	5	25	102
CLE	Cade Smith	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	21
CLE	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260904_LAA@PIT

20260904_LAA@PIT.json • 2026-09-04

LAA 5 - PIT 7

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=4; HR: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Jose Siri: BB current=0 box=1; Adam Frazier: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0; Oswald Peraza: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Moore: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Mike Trout: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Nick Gonzales: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Brandon Lowe: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jacob Gonzalez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Oneil Cruz: RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Spencer Horwitz: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Konnor Griffin: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match PIT pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match PIT pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=37 matches PIT BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=36 matches LAA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.740 -> 0.644 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.74, 'sample_size': 208, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5481, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.64405, 'published_confidence': 0.662027, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.338.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.662.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.662.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.479/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 9, PIT 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 5 - PIT 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PIT.	{'winner_confidence': 0.662027, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_LAA@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@PIT.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017916378441716497}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01763702861964745}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0175188051726075}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01724565426078956}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016620012552019656}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.01618171687122632, '1': 0.028347288993193005, '2': 0.045347649036739136, '3': 0.06624518767158927, '4': 0.08837108866119, '5': 0.10765207071895451, '6': 0.11975423568726495, '7': 0.12165100215244976, '8': 0.11284876512944325, '9': 0.09559479443219862, '10': 0.07394826495093677, '11': 0.05223697820318411, '12': 0.03369647067562004, '13': 0.019849386949195497, '14': 0.010677414260772967, '15': 0.005244950572702188, '16': 0.002352735033339792}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03598774468969303, '1': 0.06183022807907852, '2': 0.09330865900392879, '3': 0.12368525508415396, '4': 0.14400872054184483, '5': 0.1472768668133467, '6': 0.13229857382280927, '7': 0.10438802246870654, '8': 0.07234708877015485, '9': 0.044041928863661504, '10': 0.023549759918281, '11': 0.011060672124814009, '12': 0.00456301015018127, '13': 0.0016534696693457133}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.9433, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.648, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.8399}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'LAA 5 - 7 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'LAA 5 - 7 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0165, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.648, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8399, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 5 - 7 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 5 - 7 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 7-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.662.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 1/10 (0.100).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 5-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-7, final 5-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 12.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 7-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match PIT pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match PIT pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=37 matches PIT BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=36 matches LAA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.740 -> 0.644 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.74, 'sample_size': 208, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5481, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.64405, 'published_confidence': 0.662027, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.338.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.662.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.662.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.479/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 9, PIT 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 5 - PIT 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PIT.	{'winner_confidence': 0.662027, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_LAA@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@PIT.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017916378441716497}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01763702861964745}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0175188051726075}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01724565426078956}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016620012552019656}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.01618171687122632, '1': 0.028347288993193005, '2': 0.045347649036739136, '3': 0.06624518767158927, '4': 0.08837108866119, '5': 0.10765207071895451, '6': 0.11975423568726495, '7': 0.12165100215244976, '8': 0.11284876512944325, '9': 0.09559479443219862, '10': 0.07394826495093677, '11': 0.05223697820318411, '12': 0.03369647067562004, '13': 0.019849386949195497, '14': 0.010677414260772967, '15': 0.005244950572702188, '16': 0.002352735033339792}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03598774468969303, '1': 0.06183022807907852, '2': 0.09330865900392879, '3': 0.12368525508415396, '4': 0.14400872054184483, '5': 0.1472768668133467, '6': 0.13229857382280927, '7': 0.10438802246870654, '8': 0.07234708877015485, '9': 0.044041928863661504, '10': 0.023549759918281, '11': 0.011060672124814009, '12': 0.00456301015018127, '13': 0.0016534696693457133}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.9433, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.648, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.8399}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'LAA 5 - 7 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'LAA 5 - 7 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0165, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.648, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8399, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 5 - 7 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 5 - 7 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 7-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.662.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 1/10 (0.100).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 5-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-7, final 5-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 12.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 7-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=4; HR: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Jose Siri: BB current=0 box=1; Adam Frazier: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0; Oswald Peraza: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Moore: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Mike Trout: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Nick Gonzales: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Brandon Lowe: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jacob Gonzalez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Oneil Cruz: RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Spencer Horwitz: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Konnor Griffin: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.692339686389274	5.867464272293641		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	7	0.662	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	7		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	7		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	7		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	7		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	0	2	0	2	1	0	0	0	5	9
PIT	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	LAA	batting	32	7	2	0	1	4	4	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		6			0		7	3	7					8.0	7	0	0
current	PIT	batting	35	9	1	0	1	5	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		9			0		5	1	10					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	LAA	batting	36	9	4	0	0	5	5	1	10	0	0
simulation	LAA	pitching		7			1		7	4	7					8.0	7	36	147
simulation	PIT	batting	31	7	1	0	1	7	7	4	7	0	1
simulation	PIT	pitching		9			0		5	1	10					9.0	5	37	155

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	LAA		1B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		RF	Wade Meckler	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		C	Moisés Ballesteros	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	LAA		LF	Jose Siri	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	LAA		DH	Adam Frazier	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		3B	Oswald Peraza	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		2B	Christian Moore	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		CF	Mike Trout	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0.200
current	PIT		RF	Bryan Reynolds	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		DH	Nick Gonzales	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	PIT		LF	Jake Mangum	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		3B	Jacob Gonzalez	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	PIT		CF	Oneil Cruz	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		1B	Spencer Horwitz	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		SS	Konnor Griffin	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		C	Henry Davis	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	LAA	1	SS	Zach Neto	5	5	2	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	LAA	2	CF	Mike Trout	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	3	RF	Wade Meckler	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	5	C	Moisés Ballesteros	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	6	2B	Christian Moore	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	7	LF	Jose Siri	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	8	DH	Adam Frazier	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	9	3B	Oswald Peraza	4	4	2	2	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	1	1B	Spencer Horwitz	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	2	2B	Brandon Lowe	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	PIT	3	RF	Bryan Reynolds	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	4	DH	Nick Gonzales	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	5	CF	Oneil Cruz	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	6	SS	Konnor Griffin	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	7	LF	Jake Mangum	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	8	3B	Jacob Gonzalez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	PIT	9	C	Henry Davis	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	LAA	1	Ryan Johnson	Starter	5.0	6	7	7	3	6	0	0	0	12.60	5.47	1.42
current	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.89	0.86
current	LAA	3	José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.28	1.31
current	LAA	4	Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.45	1.09
current	PIT	1	Jared Jones	Starter	5.0	7	5	5	1	5	0	0	0	9.00	4.83	1.28
current	PIT	2	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.72	1.02
current	PIT	3	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.53	0.94
current	PIT	4	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.65	1.02
simulation	LAA	1	Ryan Johnson	Starter	5.0	6	6	6	3	6	0	25	101	10.80	5.47	1.42
simulation	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.89	0.86
simulation	LAA	3	Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.45	1.09
simulation	LAA	4	José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	1	5	20	9.00	3.28	1.31
simulation	PIT	1	Jared Jones	Starter	5.0	7	5	5	1	5	0	23	98	9.00	4.83	1.28
simulation	PIT	2	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.65	1.02
simulation	PIT	3	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.53	0.94
simulation	PIT	4	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	0	0	0	2	0	6	23	0.00	2.72	1.02

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
LAA	Ryan Johnson	Starter	5.0	6	6	3	6	25	101
LAA	Ben Joyce	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
LAA	José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	5	20
LAA	Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
PIT	Jared Jones	Starter	5.0	5	7	1	5	23	98
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	2	0	2	6	23
PIT	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260904_MIL@CIN

20260904_MIL@CIN.json • 2026-09-04

MIL 8 - CIN 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=41; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=7; SO: current=9, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dane Myers: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Edwin Arroyo: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Matt McLain: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=43; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Sal Frelick: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; William Contreras: 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match MIL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match MIL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=50 matches MIL BF=50.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match CIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=45 matches CIN BF=45.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.728 -> 0.639 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.728233, 'sample_size': 211, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5498, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.639016, 'published_confidence': 0.54, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 13.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.479/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 11 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 10, CIN 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 8 - CIN 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.54, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 4 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 4 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-06-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 4, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260702', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260702_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260701', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260701_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260629', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.598675, 'artifact': '20260629_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260624', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260624_MIL@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 8 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 8 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1662, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.654, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.4, 'draw_majority_team': 'CIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5801, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_MIL@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@CIN.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0288, 'away_run_delta': 0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.017977516053248533}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017827683498061277}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.017572982501457276}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017426521507477047}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.016535982064908545}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03594919653064385, '1': 0.06176618685772334, '2': 0.09322192036137342, '3': 0.12359216807319585, '4': 0.14393602601816446, '5': 0.1472494619605845, '6': 0.13232551007322724, '7': 0.10445737031323397, '8': 0.07243363019961276, '9': 0.0441211746432023, '10': 0.02360801825685046, '11': 0.011096286207250717, '12': 0.00458143383788557, '13': 0.0016616166670514472}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.01669586268392618, '1': 0.02923145344057419, '2': 0.046682864062476896, '3': 0.06800331956281183, '4': 0.09035834565876795, '5': 0.10951458610328962, '6': 0.12107129805902694, '7': 0.12208884035216866, '8': 0.11229910007640552, '9': 0.09421978757051577, '10': 0.07210634843790759, '11': 0.05033504049971417, '12': 0.032050357584853986, '13': 0.018614907118593486, '14': 0.009861759458145573, '15': 0.00476555487049834, '16': 0.002100574460323032}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.1919, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.444, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.5801}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 8 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 8 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1662, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.654, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.4, 'draw_majority_team': 'CIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5801, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 228.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 228.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 12 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 8 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 8 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 8-5 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 8-5, final 8-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 13.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 8-5 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match MIL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match MIL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=50 matches MIL BF=50.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match CIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=45 matches CIN BF=45.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.728 -> 0.639 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.728233, 'sample_size': 211, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5498, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.639016, 'published_confidence': 0.54, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 13.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.479/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 11 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 10, CIN 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 8 - CIN 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.54, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 4 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 4 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-06-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 4, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260702', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260702_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260701', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260701_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260629', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.598675, 'artifact': '20260629_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260624', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260624_MIL@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 8 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 8 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1662, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.654, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.4, 'draw_majority_team': 'CIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5801, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_MIL@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@CIN.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0288, 'away_run_delta': 0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.017977516053248533}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017827683498061277}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.017572982501457276}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017426521507477047}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.016535982064908545}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03594919653064385, '1': 0.06176618685772334, '2': 0.09322192036137342, '3': 0.12359216807319585, '4': 0.14393602601816446, '5': 0.1472494619605845, '6': 0.13232551007322724, '7': 0.10445737031323397, '8': 0.07243363019961276, '9': 0.0441211746432023, '10': 0.02360801825685046, '11': 0.011096286207250717, '12': 0.00458143383788557, '13': 0.0016616166670514472}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.01669586268392618, '1': 0.02923145344057419, '2': 0.046682864062476896, '3': 0.06800331956281183, '4': 0.09035834565876795, '5': 0.10951458610328962, '6': 0.12107129805902694, '7': 0.12208884035216866, '8': 0.11229910007640552, '9': 0.09421978757051577, '10': 0.07210634843790759, '11': 0.05033504049971417, '12': 0.032050357584853986, '13': 0.018614907118593486, '14': 0.009861759458145573, '15': 0.00476555487049834, '16': 0.002100574460323032}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.1919, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.444, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.5801}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 8 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 8 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1662, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.654, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.4, 'draw_majority_team': 'CIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5801, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 228.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 228.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 12 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 8 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 8 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 8-5 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 8-5, final 8-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 13.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 8-5 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=41; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=7; SO: current=9, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dane Myers: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Edwin Arroyo: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Matt McLain: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=43; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Sal Frelick: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; William Contreras: 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.2290568973460445	3.6120819160971145		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7	5	0.540	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	8	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	8	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	8	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R	H
MIL	0	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	8	10
CIN	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	1	5	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIL	batting	36	9	2	0	1	5	5	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		8			1		5	7	10					9.0	5	0	0
current	CIN	batting	32	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		10			1		8	2	10					9.0	8	0	0
simulation	MIL	batting	43	10	3	0	1	8	8	2	10	0	0
simulation	MIL	pitching		8			1		5	7	10					11.0	5	50	228
simulation	CIN	batting	41	8	2	0	1	5	5	7	10	0	2
simulation	CIN	pitching		10			1		8	2	10					11.0	8	45	183

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	MIL		1B	Jake Bauers	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		RF	Sal Frelick	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIL		DH	Christian Yelich	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		C	William Contreras	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		2B	Brice Turang	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		SS	Cooper Pratt	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		3B	David Hamilton	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		C	Tyler Stephenson	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		SS	Elly De La Cruz	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		1B	Sal Stewart	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		CF	Dane Myers	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		3B	Edwin Arroyo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		DH	Eugenio Suárez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		2B	Matt McLain	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CIN		LF	JJ Bleday	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	1	RF	Sal Frelick	5	5	2	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	MIL	2	1B	Jake Bauers	5	5	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	3	LF	Jackson Chourio	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	MIL	4	DH	Christian Yelich	5	5	2	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	MIL	5	C	William Contreras	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	MIL	6	2B	Brice Turang	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	7	CF	Garrett Mitchell	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	8	SS	Cooper Pratt	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	9	3B	David Hamilton	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	CIN	1	CF	Dane Myers	6	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	6	6	2	1	0	1	2	0	3	0	0.333
simulation	CIN	3	1B	Sal Stewart	6	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.200
simulation	CIN	4	C	Tyler Stephenson	6	4	2	1	0	1	0	2	1	0	0.500
simulation	CIN	5	DH	Eugenio Suárez	6	5	1	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	0.200
simulation	CIN	6	LF	JJ Bleday	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	CIN	7	2B	Matt McLain	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	8	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	9	3B	Edwin Arroyo	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIL	1	Shane Drohan	Starter	5.1	3	1	1	4	6	0	0	0	1.69	3.75	1.30
current	MIL	2	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	3.16	1.34
current	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.1	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	6.75	1.97	0.99
current	MIL	4	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.52	0.81
current	MIL	5	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		3.74	1.32
current	MIL	6	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0		3.22	1.30
current	MIL	7	DL Hall	Reliever	0.0	1	2	2	1	1	0	0	0
current	CIN	1	Rhett Lowder	Starter	5.0	7	5	5	1	5	0	0	0	9.00	5.14	1.46
current	CIN	2	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.75	1.42
current	CIN	3	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	2.58	1.33
current	CIN	4	Emilio Pagán	Closer	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.08	1.02
current	CIN	5	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.0	3	3	3	1	1	1	0	0		5.55	1.49
simulation	MIL	1	Shane Drohan	Starter	5.1	3	1	1	4	6	0	25	104	1.69	3.75	1.30
simulation	MIL	2	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	33	0.00	1.52	0.81
simulation	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.1	2	1	1	1	1	0	7	39	6.75	1.97	0.99
simulation	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	1	5	20	9.00	3.16	1.34
simulation	MIL	5	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.74	1.32
simulation	MIL	6	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	0.00	3.22	1.30
simulation	MIL	7	DL Hall	Reliever	0.2	1	2	2	1	1	0	4	15	27.00	2.25	1.04
simulation	CIN	1	Rhett Lowder	Starter	5.0	7	5	5	1	5	0	23	95	9.00	5.14	1.46
simulation	CIN	2	Emilio Pagán	Closer	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6	25	0.00	4.08	1.02
simulation	CIN	3	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	3.75	1.42
simulation	CIN	4	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	6	25	0.00	2.58	1.33
simulation	CIN	5	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	3	3	3	1	1	1	6	21	40.50	5.55	1.49

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIL	Shane Drohan	Starter	5.1	1	3	4	6	25	104
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	20
MIL	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.1	1	2	1	1	7	39
MIL	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.1	0	0	1	1	5	33
MIL	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
MIL	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	4
MIL	DL Hall	Reliever	0.2	2	1	1	1	4	15
CIN	Rhett Lowder	Starter	5.0	5	7	1	5	23	95
CIN	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
CIN	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	0	0	0	3	6	25
CIN	Emilio Pagán	Closer	2.0	0	0	0	1	6	25
CIN	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	3	3	1	1	6	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260904_MIN@CHW

20260904_MIN@CHW.json • 2026-09-04

MIN 6 - CHW 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Munetaka Murakami: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Braden Montgomery: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Kyle Teel: H current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: R current=0 box=1; Kaelen Culpepper: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Trevor Larnach: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Royce Lewis: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match MIN pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=35 matches MIN BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match CHW pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=40 matches CHW BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.526 -> 0.532 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.526105, 'sample_size': 469, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5373, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.531703, 'published_confidence': 0.538103, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.538.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.538.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.462.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.455/0.629.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 8, CHW 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 6 - CHW 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-08-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260830', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.686674, 'artifact': '20260830_CHW@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260829', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.570729, 'artifact': '20260829_CHW@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.526937, 'artifact': '20260828_CHW@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIN', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 6 - 5 CHW', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 6 - 5 CHW', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0323, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.046, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3587, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_MIN@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@CHW.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0346, 'away_run_delta': -0.0346, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020712988364982112}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019938111746993937}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.019641150706179757}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019376121413352845}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018966638921103587}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03409898933254442, '1': 0.05868738029577071, '2': 0.08903009160112488, '3': 0.11904681928071972, '4': 0.1403096858018939, '5': 0.14576269440094275, '6': 0.13347317847886198, '7': 0.1077284714031294, '8': 0.07664006634620281, '9': 0.04805849056235528, '10': 0.026562763774837753, '11': 0.012940923610608203, '12': 0.0055570738307222246, '13': 0.0021033712802859712}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0307043091621829, '1': 0.05301298193324477, '2': 0.0811920280532576, '3': 0.11030439024558761, '4': 0.13292922097101084, '5': 0.14210075115658774, '6': 0.1347474454070789, '7': 0.11334254494737715, '8': 0.0845694745168824, '9': 0.055973511975230636, '10': 0.03286243457568941, '11': 0.01711453739872489, '12': 0.007906401190405475, '13': 0.003239968466739713}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.6143, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.116, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3587}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 6 - 5 CHW', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 6 - 5 CHW', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0323, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.046, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3587, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 178.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 178.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 6 - 5 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 6 - 5 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIN, simulation=MIN, published=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.538.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match MIN pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=35 matches MIN BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match CHW pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=40 matches CHW BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.526 -> 0.532 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.526105, 'sample_size': 469, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5373, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.531703, 'published_confidence': 0.538103, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.538.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.538.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.462.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.455/0.629.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 8, CHW 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 6 - CHW 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-08-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260830', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.686674, 'artifact': '20260830_CHW@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260829', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.570729, 'artifact': '20260829_CHW@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.526937, 'artifact': '20260828_CHW@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIN', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 6 - 5 CHW', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 6 - 5 CHW', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0323, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.046, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3587, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_MIN@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@CHW.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0346, 'away_run_delta': -0.0346, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020712988364982112}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019938111746993937}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.019641150706179757}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019376121413352845}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018966638921103587}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03409898933254442, '1': 0.05868738029577071, '2': 0.08903009160112488, '3': 0.11904681928071972, '4': 0.1403096858018939, '5': 0.14576269440094275, '6': 0.13347317847886198, '7': 0.1077284714031294, '8': 0.07664006634620281, '9': 0.04805849056235528, '10': 0.026562763774837753, '11': 0.012940923610608203, '12': 0.0055570738307222246, '13': 0.0021033712802859712}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0307043091621829, '1': 0.05301298193324477, '2': 0.0811920280532576, '3': 0.11030439024558761, '4': 0.13292922097101084, '5': 0.14210075115658774, '6': 0.1347474454070789, '7': 0.11334254494737715, '8': 0.0845694745168824, '9': 0.055973511975230636, '10': 0.03286243457568941, '11': 0.01711453739872489, '12': 0.007906401190405475, '13': 0.003239968466739713}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.6143, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.116, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3587}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 6 - 5 CHW', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 6 - 5 CHW', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0323, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.046, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3587, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 178.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 178.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 6 - 5 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 6 - 5 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIN, simulation=MIN, published=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.538.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Munetaka Murakami: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Braden Montgomery: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Kyle Teel: H current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: R current=0 box=1; Kaelen Culpepper: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Trevor Larnach: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Royce Lewis: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.80662634179421	4.009642046852451		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6	5	0.538	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	6	8
CHW	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIN	batting	38	9	2	0	1	5	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		6			0		5	2	10					9.0	5	0	0
current	CHW	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	5	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		8			1		6	5	11					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	MIN	batting	35	8	1	0	1	6	6	5	11	0	0
simulation	MIN	pitching		6			0		5	2	10					9.0	5	35	153
simulation	CHW	batting	33	6	3	0	0	5	5	2	10	0	0
simulation	CHW	pitching		8			1		6	5	11					9.0	6	40	178

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	MIN		RF	Luke Keaschall	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		2B	Kody Clemens	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		DH	Josh Bell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		C	Ryan Jeffers	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	MIN		3B	Brooks Lee	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.200
current	MIN		SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	MIN		LF	Trevor Larnach	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIN		1B	Royce Lewis	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		CF	Walker Jenkins	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		1B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	0.250
current	CHW		LF	Sam Antonacci	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
current	CHW		RF	Braden Montgomery	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		3B	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		DH	Andrew Benintendi	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
current	CHW		C	Kyle Teel	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		SS	Colson Montgomery	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		CF	Tristan Peters	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	CHW		2B	Chase Meidroth	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	MIN	1	RF	Luke Keaschall	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.400
simulation	MIN	2	3B	Brooks Lee	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
simulation	MIN	3	2B	Kody Clemens	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	2	0.500
simulation	MIN	4	C	Ryan Jeffers	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIN	5	DH	Josh Bell	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIN	6	LF	Trevor Larnach	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	7	1B	Royce Lewis	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0.250
simulation	MIN	8	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIN	9	CF	Walker Jenkins	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	1	LF	Sam Antonacci	4	4	2	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.500
simulation	CHW	2	3B	Miguel Vargas	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	3	1B	Munetaka Murakami	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	CHW	4	DH	Andrew Benintendi	4	4	2	2	0	1	2	0	1	0.500
simulation	CHW	5	SS	Colson Montgomery	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	6	RF	Braden Montgomery	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHW	7	CF	Tristan Peters	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHW	8	2B	Chase Meidroth	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CHW	9	C	Kyle Teel	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIN	1	Zebby Matthews	Starter	6.0	4	4	4	1	6	0	0	0	6.00	4.58	1.26
current	MIN	2	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.75	0.94
current	MIN	3	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.62	1.37
current	MIN	4	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.90	1.40
current	MIN	5	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	27.00	3.90	1.35
current	CHW	1	Erick Fedde	Starter	4.2	3	5	5	5	7	1	0	0	9.64	4.16	1.37
current	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.40	1.03
current	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.44	1.07
current	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.89	1.26
current	CHW	5	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	3	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	13.50	3.83	1.50
simulation	MIN	1	Zebby Matthews	Starter	6.0	4	4	4	1	6	0	23	104	6.00	4.58	1.26
simulation	MIN	2	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	3.62	1.37
simulation	MIN	3	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.00	3.90	1.40
simulation	MIN	4	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	14	0.00	1.75	0.94
simulation	MIN	5	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	0	4	14	27.00	3.90	1.35
simulation	CHW	1	Erick Fedde	Starter	4.2	3	5	5	5	7	1	22	100	9.64	4.16	1.37
simulation	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	28	0.00	2.40	1.03
simulation	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	20	0.00	2.44	1.07
simulation	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.89	1.26
simulation	CHW	5	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	3	1	1	0	2	0	5	17	13.50	3.83	1.50

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIN	Zebby Matthews	Starter	6.0	4	4	1	6	23	104
MIN	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	14
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
MIN	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8
MIN	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	1	2	1	0	4	14
CHW	Erick Fedde	Starter	4.2	5	3	5	7	22	100
CHW	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	0	1	0	1	5	28
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	0	1	0	1	5	20
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
CHW	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	3	0	2	5	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260904_NYY@SD

20260904_NYY@SD.json • 2026-09-04

NYY 6 - SD 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Trent Grisham: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; George Lombard Jr.: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ryan McMahon: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Samad Taylor: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Hays: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Ty France: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Xander Bogaerts: 2B current=0 box=1; Luis Campusano: BB current=0 box=1; Jake Cronenworth: SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match SD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match SD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=36 matches SD BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match NYY pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=37 matches NYY BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.700 -> 0.629 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.699962, 'sample_size': 301, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5581, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.629031, 'published_confidence': 0.643445, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.643.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.643.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.357.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.527/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 7, SD 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 6 - SD 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYY.	{'winner_confidence': 0.643445, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_NYY@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02562985901029771}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02495732895755707}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02452483732071299}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023881303147148956}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.02364007288612113}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06467172211015669, '1': 0.10831091338200134, '2': 0.15140075539111503, '3': 0.17663708824852445, '4': 0.17200211346274807, '5': 0.13979244498477927, '6': 0.09482692103830807, '7': 0.05368804991168082, '8': 0.0253700685561761, '9': 0.010006073375370569, '10': 0.0032938495391394047}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03338789452889306, '1': 0.05750148569591238, '2': 0.0874040609396968, '3': 0.11725913026071906, '4': 0.13884307969460577, '5': 0.14509896683892948, '6': 0.13383414049975775, '7': 0.10895120062276913, '8': 0.07828159014291931, '9': 0.049642057085703926, '10': 0.027784488918396053, '11': 0.01372516479698539, '12': 0.005984050294746789, '13': 0.0023026896799651334}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.825, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.544, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.7267}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.007, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.544, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7267, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 6 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 6 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.643.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-3, final 6-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match SD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match SD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=36 matches SD BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match NYY pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=37 matches NYY BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.700 -> 0.629 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.699962, 'sample_size': 301, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5581, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.629031, 'published_confidence': 0.643445, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.643.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.643.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.357.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.527/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 7, SD 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 6 - SD 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYY.	{'winner_confidence': 0.643445, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_NYY@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02562985901029771}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02495732895755707}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02452483732071299}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023881303147148956}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.02364007288612113}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06467172211015669, '1': 0.10831091338200134, '2': 0.15140075539111503, '3': 0.17663708824852445, '4': 0.17200211346274807, '5': 0.13979244498477927, '6': 0.09482692103830807, '7': 0.05368804991168082, '8': 0.0253700685561761, '9': 0.010006073375370569, '10': 0.0032938495391394047}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03338789452889306, '1': 0.05750148569591238, '2': 0.0874040609396968, '3': 0.11725913026071906, '4': 0.13884307969460577, '5': 0.14509896683892948, '6': 0.13383414049975775, '7': 0.10895120062276913, '8': 0.07828159014291931, '9': 0.049642057085703926, '10': 0.027784488918396053, '11': 0.01372516479698539, '12': 0.005984050294746789, '13': 0.0023026896799651334}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.825, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.544, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.7267}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.007, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.544, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7267, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 6 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 6 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.643.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-3, final 6-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Trent Grisham: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; George Lombard Jr.: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ryan McMahon: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Samad Taylor: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Hays: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Ty France: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Xander Bogaerts: 2B current=0 box=1; Luis Campusano: BB current=0 box=1; Jake Cronenworth: SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.458104241105403	2.991556925567396		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	3		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	3	0.643	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	6	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	2	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	6	7
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYY	batting	33	8	1	0	1	5	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		8			0		3	2	8					9.0	3	0	0
current	SD	batting	34	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		7			4		6	2	5					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	NYY	batting	34	7	2	0	4	6	6	2	5	0	0
simulation	NYY	pitching		8			0		3	2	8					9.0	3	37	146
simulation	SD	batting	35	8	3	0	0	3	3	2	8	0	0
simulation	SD	pitching		7			4		6	2	5					9.0	6	36	147

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	NYY		RF	Spencer Jones	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		1B	Luis García Jr.	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		CF	Trent Grisham	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	NYY		LF	Cody Bellinger	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	NYY		DH	Ben Rice	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	NYY		2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		SS	George Lombard Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		3B	Ryan McMahon	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	NYY		C	Austin Wells	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	SD		LF	Samad Taylor	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	SD		DH	Austin Hays	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		1B	Ty France	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	SD		RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		C	Luis Campusano	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SD		2B	Jake Cronenworth	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
simulation	NYY	1	DH	Ben Rice	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	2	LF	Cody Bellinger	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0.250
simulation	NYY	3	1B	Luis García Jr.	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	4	RF	Spencer Jones	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	5	CF	Trent Grisham	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	NYY	6	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	7	SS	George Lombard Jr.	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	NYY	8	3B	Ryan McMahon	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYY	9	C	Austin Wells	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SD	1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	2	0.400
simulation	SD	2	LF	Samad Taylor	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SD	4	1B	Ty France	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	2	0.250
simulation	SD	5	CF	Jackson Merrill	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SD	6	DH	Austin Hays	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SD	7	SS	Xander Bogaerts	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	SD	8	C	Luis Campusano	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	SD	9	2B	Jake Cronenworth	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYY	1	Max Fried	Starter	5.2	2	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	0.00	2.80	1.00
current	NYY	2	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	4	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	27.00	1.93	1.19
current	NYY	3	David Bednar	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.69	1.03
current	NYY	4	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.62	1.03
current	SD	1	Walker Buehler	Starter	5.1	5	4	4	0	4	2	0	0	6.75	4.66	1.36
current	SD	2	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.77	1.08
current	SD	3	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	5.40	1.88	1.03
current	SD	4	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	1.26	0.84
simulation	NYY	1	Max Fried	Starter	5.2	2	0	0	2	6	0	21	85	0.00	2.80	1.00
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.69	1.03
simulation	NYY	3	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	4	3	3	0	0	0	7	25	27.00	1.93	1.19
simulation	NYY	4	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	5	20	0.00	1.62	1.03
simulation	SD	1	Walker Buehler	Starter	5.1	5	4	4	0	4	2	21	86	6.75	4.66	1.36
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	16	9.00	1.26	0.84
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.77	1.08
simulation	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	1	1	1	2	1	1	8	32	5.40	1.88	1.03

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYY	Max Fried	Starter	5.2	0	2	2	6	21	85
NYY	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	3	4	0	0	7	25
NYY	David Bednar	Closer	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
NYY	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	1	0	2	5	20
SD	Walker Buehler	Starter	5.1	4	5	0	4	21	86
SD	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	1	1	2	1	8	32
SD	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260904_OAK@SEA

20260904_OAK@SEA.json • 2026-09-04

OAK 5 - SEA 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Zack Gelof: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cal Raleigh: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=2; Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brock Rodden: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Lazaro Montes: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Cole Young: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match SEA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match SEA pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=44 matches SEA BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=35 matches OAK BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.626 -> 0.581 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.625747, 'sample_size': 550, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5364, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.581073, 'published_confidence': 0.548498, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.452.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.527/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 11, SEA 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 5 - SEA 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-05-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-05-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'SEA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260903', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.637251, 'artifact': '20260903_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SEA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SEA', 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 5 - 6 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 5 - 6 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0343, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.158, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6249, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_OAK@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@SEA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 16.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 16.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0923, 'away_run_delta': -0.0923, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018212549463208792}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017680512122611586}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017575137938342787}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017061721095289913}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017013736261517896}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02233648719422908, '1': 0.03887783977670049, '2': 0.061002316548922804, '3': 0.08628741915882314, '4': 0.11002859859182533, '5': 0.12647964369627937, '6': 0.1310667816655963, '7': 0.12243951130560288, '8': 0.10311159136783352, '9': 0.07827991432036074, '10': 0.05357351524875892, '11': 0.033052696501032625, '12': 0.018383178235222137, '13': 0.009217035285246932, '14': 0.004165996034753414, '15': 0.0016974750688121371}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.028464227897829885, '1': 0.04925037906535402, '2': 0.07591411481138466, '3': 0.10424092884320858, '4': 0.1275136854273463, '5': 0.13895625750295967, '6': 0.13489697311498527, '7': 0.1166619110193656, '8': 0.08987910785837717, '9': 0.06168665272447509, '10': 0.03771607079501602, '11': 0.0205430283205918, '12': 0.009967936731815669, '13': 0.004308725887290287}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.9894, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.052, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6249}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 5 - 6 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 5 - 6 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0343, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.158, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6249, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 134.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 185.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 134.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 185.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 5 - 6 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 5 - 6 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.548.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match SEA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match SEA pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=44 matches SEA BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=35 matches OAK BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.626 -> 0.581 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.625747, 'sample_size': 550, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5364, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.581073, 'published_confidence': 0.548498, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.452.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.527/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 11, SEA 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 5 - SEA 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-05-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-05-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'SEA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260903', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.637251, 'artifact': '20260903_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SEA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SEA', 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 5 - 6 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 5 - 6 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0343, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.158, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6249, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_OAK@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@SEA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 16.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 16.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0923, 'away_run_delta': -0.0923, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018212549463208792}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017680512122611586}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017575137938342787}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017061721095289913}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017013736261517896}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02233648719422908, '1': 0.03887783977670049, '2': 0.061002316548922804, '3': 0.08628741915882314, '4': 0.11002859859182533, '5': 0.12647964369627937, '6': 0.1310667816655963, '7': 0.12243951130560288, '8': 0.10311159136783352, '9': 0.07827991432036074, '10': 0.05357351524875892, '11': 0.033052696501032625, '12': 0.018383178235222137, '13': 0.009217035285246932, '14': 0.004165996034753414, '15': 0.0016974750688121371}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.028464227897829885, '1': 0.04925037906535402, '2': 0.07591411481138466, '3': 0.10424092884320858, '4': 0.1275136854273463, '5': 0.13895625750295967, '6': 0.13489697311498527, '7': 0.1166619110193656, '8': 0.08987910785837717, '9': 0.06168665272447509, '10': 0.03771607079501602, '11': 0.0205430283205918, '12': 0.009967936731815669, '13': 0.004308725887290287}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.9894, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.052, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6249}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 5 - 6 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 5 - 6 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0343, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.158, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6249, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 134.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 185.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 134.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 185.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 5 - 6 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 5 - 6 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.548.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Zack Gelof: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cal Raleigh: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=2; Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brock Rodden: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Lazaro Montes: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Cole Young: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.1619122721683492	6.1482199913348605		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	6	0.548	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	5	11
SEA	2	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	6	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	OAK	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		10			2		6	1	6					8.0	6	0	0
current	SEA	batting	37	8	1	0	1	5	6	4	9	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		11			2		5	5	10					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	OAK	batting	38	11	2	0	2	5	5	5	10	0	1
simulation	OAK	pitching		10			2		6	1	6					8.0	6	35	134
simulation	SEA	batting	34	10	4	0	2	6	6	1	6	0	0
simulation	SEA	pitching		11			2		5	5	10					9.0	5	44	185

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		1B	Jeff McNeil	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.333
current	OAK		LF	Carlos Cortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		DH	Max Muncy	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		RF	Lawrence Butler	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		SS	Alika Williams	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		2B	Donovan Walton	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	OAK		3B	Zack Gelof	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	OAK		C	Jonah Heim	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		C	Cal Raleigh	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		DH	Dominic Canzone	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		LF	Randy Arozarena	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	SEA		3B	Brock Rodden	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	SEA		RF	Lazaro Montes	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	0.200
current	SEA		2B	Cole Young	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		SS	J.P. Crawford	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	1	CF	Henry Bolte	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	OAK	2	1B	Jeff McNeil	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	OAK	3	3B	Zack Gelof	5	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	OAK	4	RF	Lawrence Butler	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	5	LF	Carlos Cortes	5	3	1	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0.333
simulation	OAK	6	C	Jonah Heim	5	4	3	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.750
simulation	OAK	7	DH	Max Muncy	5	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	OAK	8	2B	Donovan Walton	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	OAK	9	SS	Alika Williams	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	1	LF	Randy Arozarena	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	2	DH	Dominic Canzone	4	3	3	1	2	1	2	1	0	0	1.000
simulation	SEA	3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	4	4	2	2	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	SEA	4	C	Cal Raleigh	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	5	1B	Josh Naylor	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	SEA	6	2B	Cole Young	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	7	SS	J.P. Crawford	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	8	RF	Lazaro Montes	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	9	3B	Brock Rodden	3	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	OAK	1	Kade Morris	Starter	3.0	9	5	5	1	4	1	0	0	15.00	9.82	2.11
current	OAK	2	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	6.75	3.25	1.37
current	OAK	3	Hogan Harris	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.43	1.48
current	OAK	4	Scott Blewett	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.49	1.30
current	OAK	6	Elvis Alvarado	Closer	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.00	1.18
current	SEA	1	Logan Gilbert	Starter	5.2	4	1	1	5	6	0	0	0	1.59	3.42	1.04
current	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.93	1.15
current	SEA	3	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.34	1.40
current	SEA	4	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.52	1.07
current	SEA	5	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	0.2	5	4	4	0	0	2	0	0	54.00	3.72	1.38
simulation	OAK	1	Kade Morris	Starter	3.0	9	5	5	1	4	1	19	69	15.00	9.82	2.11
simulation	OAK	2	Elvis Alvarado	Closer	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	24	0.00	4.00	1.18
simulation	OAK	3	Hogan Harris	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.43	1.48
simulation	OAK	4	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	5	20	6.75	3.25	1.37
simulation	OAK	5	Scott Blewett	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.00	2.49	1.30
simulation	SEA	1	Logan Gilbert	Starter	5.2	4	1	1	5	6	0	27	115	1.59	3.42	1.04
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	23	0.00	3.93	1.15
simulation	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	0.2	5	4	4	0	0	2	7	23	54.00	3.72	1.38
simulation	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.34	1.40
simulation	SEA	5	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	0	3	11	0.00	2.52	1.07

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
OAK	Kade Morris	Starter	3.0	5	9	1	4	19	69
OAK	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	1	0	1	5	20
OAK	Hogan Harris	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
OAK	Scott Blewett	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8
OAK	Elvis Alvarado	Closer	2.0	0	0	0	0	6	24
SEA	Logan Gilbert	Starter	5.2	1	4	5	6	27	115
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	23
SEA	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
SEA	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	1	0	2	3	11
SEA	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	0.2	4	5	0	0	7	23

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260904_SF@NYM

20260904_SF@NYM.json • 2026-09-04

SF 4 - NYM 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mark Vientos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Carson Benge: R current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: AB current=5 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Bo Bichette: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christopher Morel: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Francisco Alvarez: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Turner Hill: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Rafael Devers: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Osleivis Basabe: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Drew Gilbert: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Drew Cavanaugh: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match SF pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match SF pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=36 matches SF BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=38 matches NYM BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.575 -> 0.556 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.575096, 'sample_size': 477, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5367, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.555898, 'published_confidence': 0.546831, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.453.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.500/0.682.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 8, NYM 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 4 - NYM 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYM.	{'winner_confidence': 0.54683075, 'h2h_net_margin': 19, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_SF@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@NYM.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 14.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 14.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.5, 'home_run_delta': 0.0875, 'away_run_delta': -0.0875, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022236256404474512}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021958094503432835}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02161752934421159}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021347107338419276}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02011638413555686}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03529001322171086, '1': 0.06067040770921267, '2': 0.0917349094746527, '3': 0.1219902133732975, '4': 0.14267503115497793, '5': 0.14675861079045915, '6': 0.13276751878375923, '7': 0.1056361870533857, '8': 0.07392072636276809, '9': 0.045493815858276346, '10': 0.02462471064881435, '11': 0.011722561978786092, '12': 0.004908022783004444, '13': 0.0018072708068949692}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04029664047521598, '1': 0.06896436644068829, '2': 0.10286672839734472, '3': 0.13372708289505195, '4': 0.15151585508139806, '5': 0.1496204848571675, '6': 0.12877106900521418, '7': 0.09659170028298397, '8': 0.0631474165158583, '9': 0.03598037045336386, '10': 0.017867752999529682, '11': 0.007733365143014863, '12': 0.0029171674531684785}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2186, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.36, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0161}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 5 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 5 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0755, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.185, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0161, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 4 - 5 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 4 - 5 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYM, simulation=NYM, published=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.547.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYM wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match SF pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match SF pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=36 matches SF BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=38 matches NYM BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.575 -> 0.556 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.575096, 'sample_size': 477, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5367, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.555898, 'published_confidence': 0.546831, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.453.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.500/0.682.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 8, NYM 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 4 - NYM 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYM.	{'winner_confidence': 0.54683075, 'h2h_net_margin': 19, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_SF@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@NYM.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 14.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 14.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.5, 'home_run_delta': 0.0875, 'away_run_delta': -0.0875, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022236256404474512}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021958094503432835}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02161752934421159}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021347107338419276}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02011638413555686}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03529001322171086, '1': 0.06067040770921267, '2': 0.0917349094746527, '3': 0.1219902133732975, '4': 0.14267503115497793, '5': 0.14675861079045915, '6': 0.13276751878375923, '7': 0.1056361870533857, '8': 0.07392072636276809, '9': 0.045493815858276346, '10': 0.02462471064881435, '11': 0.011722561978786092, '12': 0.004908022783004444, '13': 0.0018072708068949692}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04029664047521598, '1': 0.06896436644068829, '2': 0.10286672839734472, '3': 0.13372708289505195, '4': 0.15151585508139806, '5': 0.1496204848571675, '6': 0.12877106900521418, '7': 0.09659170028298397, '8': 0.0631474165158583, '9': 0.03598037045336386, '10': 0.017867752999529682, '11': 0.007733365143014863, '12': 0.0029171674531684785}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2186, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.36, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0161}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 5 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 5 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0755, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.185, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0161, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 4 - 5 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 4 - 5 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYM, simulation=NYM, published=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.547.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYM wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mark Vientos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Carson Benge: R current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: AB current=5 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Bo Bichette: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christopher Morel: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Francisco Alvarez: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Turner Hill: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Rafael Devers: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Osleivis Basabe: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Drew Gilbert: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Drew Cavanaugh: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.3934864974812324	5.686699898039637		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.547	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	8
NYM	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SF	batting	33	8	2	0	1	5	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		11			2		5	0	5					8.0	5	0	0
current	NYM	batting	36	8	1	0	1	4	3	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		9			2		4	3	11					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	SF	batting	35	8	5	0	2	4	4	3	11	0	0
simulation	SF	pitching		11			2		5	0	5					8.0	5	36	150
simulation	NYM	batting	35	11	2	0	2	5	5	0	5	0	1
simulation	NYM	pitching		8			2		4	3	11					9.0	4	38	159

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	SF		LF	Turner Hill	0	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	SF		RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
current	SF		1B	Rafael Devers	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	SF		3B	Osleivis Basabe	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		CF	Drew Gilbert	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		SS	Christian Koss	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		DH	Bryce Eldridge	0	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	SF		C	Drew Cavanaugh	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		2B	Nate Furman	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.000
current	NYM		DH	Mark Vientos	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		RF	Carson Benge	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		LF	Juan Soto	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.200
current	NYM		3B	Bo Bichette	0	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	NYM		SS	Francisco Lindor	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	NYM		1B	Christopher Morel	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	NYM		C	Francisco Alvarez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		CF	Nick Morabito	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.333
simulation	SF	1	CF	Drew Gilbert	5	5	2	2	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	SF	2	1B	Rafael Devers	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	SF	3	DH	Bryce Eldridge	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	SF	4	LF	Turner Hill	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	SF	5	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SF	6	C	Drew Cavanaugh	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	SF	7	3B	Osleivis Basabe	4	3	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	SF	8	2B	Nate Furman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	9	SS	Christian Koss	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	1	SS	Francisco Lindor	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	2	LF	Juan Soto	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	NYM	3	3B	Bo Bichette	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	4	DH	Mark Vientos	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	5	RF	Carson Benge	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	6	2B	Marcus Semien	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	7	1B	Christopher Morel	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	8	C	Francisco Alvarez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	9	CF	Nick Morabito	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SF	1	Matt Wilkinson	Starter	4.0	6	3	3	0	3	1	0	0	6.75	4.63	1.11
current	SF	2	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.75	3.46	1.38
current	SF	3	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.13	1.33
current	SF	5	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	9.00	4.50	1.50
current	NYM	1	Nolan McLean	Starter	6.0	5	2	2	3	8	2	0	0	3.00	3.06	1.12
current	NYM	2	Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	2.08	0.77
current	NYM	3	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00	7.36	1.64
current	NYM	4	Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.63
simulation	SF	1	Matt Wilkinson	Starter	4.0	6	3	3	0	3	1	19	80	6.75	4.63	1.11
simulation	SF	2	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	6	28	0.00	3.13	1.33
simulation	SF	3	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	0	6	23	6.75	3.46	1.38
simulation	SF	4	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	1	5	19	9.00	4.50	1.50
simulation	NYM	1	Nolan McLean	Starter	6.0	5	2	2	3	8	2	26	111	3.00	3.06	1.12
simulation	NYM	2	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.0	0	1	1	0	2	0	3	13	9.00	7.36	1.64
simulation	NYM	3	Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	5	19	9.00	2.08	0.77
simulation	NYM	4	Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	0.00	0.63

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SF	Matt Wilkinson	Starter	4.0	3	6	0	3	19	80
SF	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.1	1	2	0	0	6	23
SF	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.2	0	1	0	0	6	28
SF	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	0	2	5	19
NYM	Nolan McLean	Starter	6.0	2	5	3	8	26	111
NYM	Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	19
NYM	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	2	3	13
NYM	Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260904_STL@COL

20260904_STL@COL.json • 2026-09-04

STL 6 - COL 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Cole Carrigg: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Connor Norby: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Troy Johnston: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Hunter Goodman: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Zac Veen: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Torres: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=5 box=4, H current=2 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Joshua Baez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Iván Herrera: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match STL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match STL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=41 matches STL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match COL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=39 matches COL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.634 -> 0.585 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.634261, 'sample_size': 550, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5364, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.58533, 'published_confidence': 0.548498, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.452.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.527/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 11, COL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 6 - COL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for STL; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'STL', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-08-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-08-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260809', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260809_COL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260808', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.7, 'artifact': '20260808_COL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260807', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260807_COL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'STL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'STL', 'final_score_winner': 'STL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0341, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1127, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'STL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7151, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_STL@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@COL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.667, 'home_run_delta': -0.0136, 'away_run_delta': 0.0136, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017816092546895663}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017512161904962}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01702084471095254}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01684198861297657}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01673048046606348}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.027293351595102704, '1': 0.04727790679283166, '2': 0.07312145036909055, '3': 0.10097562285271097, '4': 0.12450118099407491, '5': 0.13706153399444432, '6': 0.13472335574903535, '7': 0.11823753916726569, '8': 0.09265162900101089, '9': 0.06482401454349147, '10': 0.04049523968952815, '11': 0.02258693027036317, '12': 0.011248526481049724, '13': 0.00500171850000052}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.021436414754794225, '1': 0.037345278935656534, '2': 0.05875824594848005, '3': 0.08349327505779516, '4': 0.10714791626706469, '5': 0.12418396478506119, '6': 0.12998608747234527, '7': 0.12287903193655522, '8': 0.10490791349705422, '9': 0.08088877837906464, '10': 0.056327160995386386, '11': 0.03542395171299848, '12': 0.02011989504020063, '13': 0.01032057687753887, '14': 0.0047811436741439515, '15': 0.0020003646658602616}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.1023, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.004, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.7151}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0341, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1127, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'STL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7151, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 6 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 6 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=STL, simulation=STL, published=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.548.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): STL wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match STL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match STL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=41 matches STL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match COL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=39 matches COL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.634 -> 0.585 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.634261, 'sample_size': 550, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5364, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.58533, 'published_confidence': 0.548498, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.452.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.527/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 11, COL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 6 - COL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for STL; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'STL', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-08-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-08-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260809', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260809_COL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260808', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.7, 'artifact': '20260808_COL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260807', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260807_COL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'STL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'STL', 'final_score_winner': 'STL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0341, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1127, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'STL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7151, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_STL@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@COL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.667, 'home_run_delta': -0.0136, 'away_run_delta': 0.0136, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017816092546895663}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017512161904962}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01702084471095254}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01684198861297657}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01673048046606348}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.027293351595102704, '1': 0.04727790679283166, '2': 0.07312145036909055, '3': 0.10097562285271097, '4': 0.12450118099407491, '5': 0.13706153399444432, '6': 0.13472335574903535, '7': 0.11823753916726569, '8': 0.09265162900101089, '9': 0.06482401454349147, '10': 0.04049523968952815, '11': 0.02258693027036317, '12': 0.011248526481049724, '13': 0.00500171850000052}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.021436414754794225, '1': 0.037345278935656534, '2': 0.05875824594848005, '3': 0.08349327505779516, '4': 0.10714791626706469, '5': 0.12418396478506119, '6': 0.12998608747234527, '7': 0.12287903193655522, '8': 0.10490791349705422, '9': 0.08088877837906464, '10': 0.056327160995386386, '11': 0.03542395171299848, '12': 0.02011989504020063, '13': 0.01032057687753887, '14': 0.0047811436741439515, '15': 0.0020003646658602616}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.1023, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.004, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.7151}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0341, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1127, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'STL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7151, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 6 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 6 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=STL, simulation=STL, published=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.548.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): STL wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Cole Carrigg: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Connor Norby: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Troy Johnston: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Hunter Goodman: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Zac Veen: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Torres: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=5 box=4, H current=2 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Joshua Baez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Iván Herrera: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.494453303214445	4.550625694694075		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6	5	0.548	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	2	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	6	11
COL	0	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	STL	batting	35	9	1	0	1	5	5	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		7			1		5	6	7					9.0	5	0	0
current	COL	batting	33	9	2	0	1	4	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		11			3		6	1	3					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	STL	batting	38	11	0	0	3	6	6	1	3	0	0
simulation	STL	pitching		7			1		5	6	7					9.0	5	41	170
simulation	COL	batting	34	7	3	0	1	5	5	6	7	0	1
simulation	COL	pitching		11			3		6	1	3					9.0	6	39	152

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	STL		2B	Bryan Torres	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	STL		C	Leonardo Bernal	0	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
current	STL		1B	Alec Burleson	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	STL		LF	Joshua Baez	0	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		SS	Thomas Saggese	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		DH	Iván Herrera	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	STL		3B	Nolan Gorman	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	STL		CF	Nathan Church	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		CF	Jake McCarthy	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		RF	Mickey Moniak	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		SS	Cole Carrigg	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	COL		3B	Connor Norby	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	COL		DH	Troy Johnston	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	COL		C	Hunter Goodman	0	5	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	COL		LF	Zac Veen	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	COL		1B	TJ Rumfield	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	COL		2B	Adael Amador	0	3	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	STL	1	2B	Bryan Torres	5	5	3	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	STL	2	DH	Iván Herrera	5	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	STL	3	1B	Alec Burleson	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	STL	4	RF	Jordan Walker	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	STL	5	C	Leonardo Bernal	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	STL	6	LF	Joshua Baez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	STL	7	3B	Nolan Gorman	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	STL	8	SS	Thomas Saggese	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	STL	9	CF	Nathan Church	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	1	CF	Jake McCarthy	5	5	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	COL	2	RF	Mickey Moniak	5	5	2	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	COL	3	C	Hunter Goodman	5	4	2	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	COL	4	1B	TJ Rumfield	5	3	1	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.333
simulation	COL	5	SS	Cole Carrigg	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	COL	6	3B	Connor Norby	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	7	DH	Troy Johnston	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	COL	8	2B	Adael Amador	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0.500
simulation	COL	9	LF	Zac Veen	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	STL	1	Andre Pallante	Starter	6.0	3	2	2	4	5	0	0	0	3.00	3.57	1.24
current	STL	2	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.28	1.33
current	STL	3	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	27.00	4.18	1.25
current	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.07	1.34
current	COL	1	Ryan Feltner	Starter	4.2	9	6	6	1	3	3	0	0	11.57	5.84	1.54
current	COL	2	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.77	1.51
current	COL	3	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.56	1.14
current	COL	4	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.46	1.23
current	COL	5	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.96	1.53
current	COL	6	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.40	1.68
simulation	STL	1	Andre Pallante	Starter	6.0	3	2	2	4	5	0	26	111	3.00	3.57	1.24
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	1	7	26	27.00	4.18	1.25
simulation	STL	3	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	4.28	1.33
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	4.07	1.34
simulation	COL	1	Ryan Feltner	Starter	4.2	9	6	6	1	3	3	24	91	11.57	5.84	1.54
simulation	COL	2	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	3.46	1.23
simulation	COL	3	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.56	1.14
simulation	COL	4	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	5.77	1.51
simulation	COL	5	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	0.00	4.96	1.53
simulation	COL	6	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	5.40	1.68

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
STL	Andre Pallante	Starter	6.0	2	3	4	5	26	111
STL	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
STL	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.0	3	3	1	1	7	26
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
COL	Ryan Feltner	Starter	4.2	6	9	1	3	24	91
COL	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
COL	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
COL	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
COL	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
COL	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	0	3	11

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260904_TB@TEX

20260904_TB@TEX.json • 2026-09-04

TB 3 - TEX 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=4, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Junior Caminero: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Yandy Díaz: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: SO current=0 box=2; Cedric Mullins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Richie Palacios: 3B current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Joc Pederson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Elias Díaz: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cody Freeman: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match TEX pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=37 matches TEX BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match TB pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=40 matches TB BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.560 -> 0.561 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.56, 'sample_size': 295, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5627, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.56135, 'published_confidence': 0.559934, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.527/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 7, TEX 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 3 - TEX 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TEX; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'opponent_team': 'TB', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-07-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260903', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.533686, 'artifact': '20260903_TB@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260730', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260730_TEX@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260728', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.59681, 'artifact': '20260728_TEX@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TEX', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TB', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'output_opponent_team': 'TB', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'TEX', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.041, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TEX', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.4965, 'winner': 'TEX', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_TB@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@TEX.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.25, 'home_run_delta': 0.0312, 'away_run_delta': -0.0312, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026086164695827814}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025874136971162993}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025812828640711643}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025603022584985542}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022944368879554623}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.039755689307271976, '1': 0.06807204966298863, '2': 0.10168570229204382, '3': 0.13251727071684286, '4': 0.1506629956617166, '5': 0.14943841042529626, '6': 0.1293121717708113, '7': 0.0976198413094223, '8': 0.06429220404463151, '9': 0.03694026926171009, '10': 0.018516688662863618, '11': 0.008097447063751572, '12': 0.0030892598206495665}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.062096948504769996, '1': 0.10423756630570548, '2': 0.1467130417435438, '3': 0.17314247988536643, '4': 0.17132825832475249, '5': 0.14214933116116868, '6': 0.09888970819120677, '7': 0.05768299800941348, '8': 0.028212073546078027, '9': 0.011569448162894317, '10': 0.003978146165100572}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.7639, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.0, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4965}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.041, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TEX', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.4965, 'winner': 'TEX', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 3 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 3 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TEX wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match TEX pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=37 matches TEX BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match TB pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=40 matches TB BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.560 -> 0.561 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.56, 'sample_size': 295, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5627, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.56135, 'published_confidence': 0.559934, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.527/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 7, TEX 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 3 - TEX 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TEX; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'opponent_team': 'TB', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-07-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260903', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.533686, 'artifact': '20260903_TB@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260730', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260730_TEX@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260728', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.59681, 'artifact': '20260728_TEX@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TEX', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TB', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'output_opponent_team': 'TB', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'TEX', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.041, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TEX', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.4965, 'winner': 'TEX', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_TB@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@TEX.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.25, 'home_run_delta': 0.0312, 'away_run_delta': -0.0312, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026086164695827814}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025874136971162993}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025812828640711643}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025603022584985542}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022944368879554623}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.039755689307271976, '1': 0.06807204966298863, '2': 0.10168570229204382, '3': 0.13251727071684286, '4': 0.1506629956617166, '5': 0.14943841042529626, '6': 0.1293121717708113, '7': 0.0976198413094223, '8': 0.06429220404463151, '9': 0.03694026926171009, '10': 0.018516688662863618, '11': 0.008097447063751572, '12': 0.0030892598206495665}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.062096948504769996, '1': 0.10423756630570548, '2': 0.1467130417435438, '3': 0.17314247988536643, '4': 0.17132825832475249, '5': 0.14214933116116868, '6': 0.09888970819120677, '7': 0.05768299800941348, '8': 0.028212073546078027, '9': 0.011569448162894317, '10': 0.003978146165100572}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.7639, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.0, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4965}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.041, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TEX', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.4965, 'winner': 'TEX', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 3 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 3 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TEX wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=4, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Junior Caminero: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Yandy Díaz: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: SO current=0 box=2; Cedric Mullins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Richie Palacios: 3B current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Joc Pederson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Elias Díaz: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cody Freeman: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.42869660030688	4.699247462980176		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	7
TEX	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	4	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TB	batting	34	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	6	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		4			1		4	6	8					8.0	4	0	0
current	TEX	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		7			1		3	1	9					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	TB	batting	34	7	1	1	1	3	3	1	9	0	2
simulation	TB	pitching		7			2		4	6	8					8.2	4	40	173
simulation	TEX	batting	33	7	3	0	2	4	4	6	8	0	1
simulation	TEX	pitching		7			1		3	1	9					9.0	3	37	163

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	TB		C	Liam Hicks	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	TB		RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	TB		DH	Yandy Díaz	0	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	TB		1B	Jonathan Aranda	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TB		LF	Chandler Simpson	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TB		CF	Cedric Mullins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		2B	Richie Palacios	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TB		SS	Taylor Walls	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		DH	Joc Pederson	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		2B	Ezequiel Duran	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		SS	Corey Seager	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		LF	Wyatt Langford	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		RF	Brandon Nimmo	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		C	Elias Díaz	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		3B	Cody Freeman	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TEX		CF	Evan Carter	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	1	DH	Yandy Díaz	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	TB	2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TB	3	3B	Junior Caminero	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	4	C	Liam Hicks	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	0.000
simulation	TB	5	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TB	6	LF	Chandler Simpson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	TB	7	CF	Cedric Mullins	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	8	2B	Richie Palacios	4	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	TB	9	SS	Taylor Walls	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	1	DH	Joc Pederson	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	2	SS	Corey Seager	5	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	3	LF	Wyatt Langford	5	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	5	2B	Ezequiel Duran	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	6	1B	Jake Burger	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	7	CF	Evan Carter	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	TEX	8	3B	Cody Freeman	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	TEX	9	C	Elias Díaz	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TB	1	Nick Martinez	Starter	6.0	2	2	2	6	6	1	0	0	3.00	2.99	1.10
current	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	1.47	0.87
current	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00	1.95	0.84
current	TEX	1	Trevor Williams	Starter	4.2	4	1	1	1	6	0	0	0	1.93	3.93	1.42
current	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.19	0.68
current	TEX	3	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.66	1.12
current	TEX	6	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	18.00	2.87	1.44
simulation	TB	1	Nick Martinez	Starter	6.0	2	1	1	6	6	1	29	118	1.50	2.99	1.10
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	25	0.00	1.47	0.87
simulation	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.2	5	3	3	0	2	1	8	30	16.20	1.95	0.84
simulation	TEX	1	Trevor Williams	Starter	4.2	4	1	1	1	6	0	21	87	1.93	3.93	1.42
simulation	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	33	0.00	1.19	0.68
simulation	TEX	3	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	21	0.00	2.66	1.12
simulation	TEX	4	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	1	6	22	18.00	2.87	1.44

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TB	Nick Martinez	Starter	6.0	1	2	6	6	29	118
TB	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	25
TB	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.2	3	5	0	2	8	30
TEX	Trevor Williams	Starter	4.2	1	4	1	6	21	87
TEX	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	1	5	33
TEX	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	1	5	21
TEX	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	3	0	1	6	22

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260904_TOR@KC

20260904_TOR@KC.json • 2026-09-04

TOR 5 - KC 7

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Jac Caglianone: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: BB current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=9).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Kirk: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brett Bateman: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; George Springer: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Charles McAdoo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kazuma Okamoto: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match TOR pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match TOR pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=37 matches TOR BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match KC pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=39 matches KC BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.604 -> 0.570 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.603659, 'sample_size': 550, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5364, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.57003, 'published_confidence': 0.557056, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.443.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.557.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.557.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.479/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 11, KC 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 5 - KC 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: KC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for KC; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'KC', 'opponent_team': 'TOR', 'h2h_net_margin': 10, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 13, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 11, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-08-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-08-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260827', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 11, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.548683, 'artifact': '20260827_KC@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260826', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.588213, 'artifact': '20260826_KC@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260825', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.588185, 'artifact': '20260825_KC@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'KC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'output_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'simulation_score_winner': 'KC', 'final_score_winner': 'KC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 7 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 7 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0392, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1647, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'KC', 'model_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'KC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2344, 'winner': 'KC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_TOR@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@KC.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.333, 'home_run_delta': 0.0682, 'away_run_delta': -0.0682, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018338544382535106}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017757053946565193}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017727685304520523}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01716556438361033}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017062671121326464}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.022643874718731773, '1': 0.03940067178539155, '2': 0.06176532380705291, '3': 0.087231638721694, '4': 0.11099196811659529, '5': 0.12723227312195823, '6': 0.13139874973400015, '7': 0.12225690358499398, '8': 0.10248109663706088, '9': 0.07739311887231565, '10': 0.05265615531466034, '11': 0.0322763306498047, '12': 0.017824090495636134, '13': 0.008867859706153697, '14': 0.003974829109376224, '15': 0.0016051156245746139}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.028864879719375194, '1': 0.0499244085675647, '2': 0.076864340368364, '3': 0.10534299937955036, '4': 0.12851542419935846, '5': 0.13956407058407427, '6': 0.13491517491915211, '7': 0.11609587070829994, '8': 0.08892861829248695, '9': 0.060636638230940725, '10': 0.03680420877599518, '11': 0.019885140096131248, '12': 0.009563759002369023, '13': 0.004094467156337835}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3865, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.048, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.2344}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 7 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 7 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0392, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1647, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'KC', 'model_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'KC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2344, 'winner': 'KC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 5 - 7 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 5 - 7 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: KC wins 7-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=KC, simulation=KC, published=KC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.557.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): KC wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: KC wins 5-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-7, final 5-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 12.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: KC wins 7-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match TOR pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match TOR pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=37 matches TOR BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match KC pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=39 matches KC BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.604 -> 0.570 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.603659, 'sample_size': 550, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5364, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.57003, 'published_confidence': 0.557056, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.443.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.557.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.557.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.479/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 11, KC 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 5 - KC 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: KC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for KC; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'KC', 'opponent_team': 'TOR', 'h2h_net_margin': 10, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 13, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 11, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-08-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-08-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260827', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 11, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.548683, 'artifact': '20260827_KC@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260826', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.588213, 'artifact': '20260826_KC@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260825', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.588185, 'artifact': '20260825_KC@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'KC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'output_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'simulation_score_winner': 'KC', 'final_score_winner': 'KC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 7 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 7 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0392, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1647, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'KC', 'model_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'KC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2344, 'winner': 'KC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_TOR@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@KC.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.333, 'home_run_delta': 0.0682, 'away_run_delta': -0.0682, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018338544382535106}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017757053946565193}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017727685304520523}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01716556438361033}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017062671121326464}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.022643874718731773, '1': 0.03940067178539155, '2': 0.06176532380705291, '3': 0.087231638721694, '4': 0.11099196811659529, '5': 0.12723227312195823, '6': 0.13139874973400015, '7': 0.12225690358499398, '8': 0.10248109663706088, '9': 0.07739311887231565, '10': 0.05265615531466034, '11': 0.0322763306498047, '12': 0.017824090495636134, '13': 0.008867859706153697, '14': 0.003974829109376224, '15': 0.0016051156245746139}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.028864879719375194, '1': 0.0499244085675647, '2': 0.076864340368364, '3': 0.10534299937955036, '4': 0.12851542419935846, '5': 0.13956407058407427, '6': 0.13491517491915211, '7': 0.11609587070829994, '8': 0.08892861829248695, '9': 0.060636638230940725, '10': 0.03680420877599518, '11': 0.019885140096131248, '12': 0.009563759002369023, '13': 0.004094467156337835}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3865, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.048, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.2344}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 7 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 7 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0392, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1647, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'KC', 'model_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'KC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2344, 'winner': 'KC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 5 - 7 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 5 - 7 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: KC wins 7-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=KC, simulation=KC, published=KC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.557.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): KC wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: KC wins 5-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-7, final 5-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 12.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: KC wins 7-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Jac Caglianone: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: BB current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=9).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Kirk: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brett Bateman: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; George Springer: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Charles McAdoo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kazuma Okamoto: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.612422541564724	5.803775993363978		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	6	0.557	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	7		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	7		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	7		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	7		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	5	11
KC	0	4	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	7	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TOR	batting	36	9	2	0	1	4	4	3	6	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		10			1		7	0	5					8.0	7	0	0
current	KC	batting	35	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		11			0		5	1	8					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	TOR	batting	38	11	6	0	0	5	5	1	8	0	0
simulation	TOR	pitching		9			1		7	0	5					9.0	7	37	147
simulation	KC	batting	36	9	4	1	1	7	7	0	5	0	1
simulation	KC	pitching		11			0		5	1	8					9.0	5	39	158

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TOR		C	Alejandro Kirk	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	TOR		CF	Brett Bateman	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.200
current	TOR		1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		SS	Ernie Clement	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		DH	George Springer	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		LF	Myles Straw	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TOR		2B	Charles McAdoo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		RF	Nathan Lukes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		C	Carter Jensen	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	KC		DH	Salvador Perez	0	5	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	KC		RF	Jac Caglianone	0	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	KC		3B	Nick Loftin	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	KC		1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	KC		2B	Michael Massey	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		CF	Kyle Isbel	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	TOR	1	CF	Brett Bateman	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	TOR	2	DH	George Springer	5	5	2	2	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	TOR	3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	TOR	4	C	Alejandro Kirk	4	3	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	TOR	5	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	6	2B	Charles McAdoo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	7	SS	Ernie Clement	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	8	RF	Nathan Lukes	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	9	LF	Myles Straw	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	KC	1	C	Carter Jensen	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	KC	3	RF	Jac Caglianone	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	4	DH	Salvador Perez	4	4	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	KC	5	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	KC	6	3B	Nick Loftin	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	KC	7	2B	Michael Massey	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	8	LF	Isaac Collins	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	KC	9	CF	Kyle Isbel	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TOR	1	Jameson Taillon	Starter	4.2	4	4	4	0	3	0	0	0	7.71	5.68	1.37
current	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Closer	1.1	4	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	13.50	1.16	0.99
current	TOR	4	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.87	1.18
current	TOR	5	Michael Lorenzen	Setup Man	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13.50	7.13	1.88
current	KC	1	Daniel Lynch IV	Starter	5.0	4	1	1	1	8	0	0	0	1.80	3.06	1.05
current	KC	2	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	18.00	3.89	1.18
current	KC	3	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.2	4	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	10.80	2.19	1.16
current	KC	4	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.27	1.23
simulation	TOR	1	Jameson Taillon	Starter	4.2	4	4	4	0	3	0	21	83	7.71	5.68	1.37
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Closer	1.1	4	2	2	0	1	1	9	36	13.50	1.16	0.99
simulation	TOR	3	Michael Lorenzen	Setup Man	0.2	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	8	13.50	7.13	1.88
simulation	TOR	4	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	20	0.00	1.87	1.18
simulation	KC	1	Daniel Lynch IV	Starter	5.0	4	1	1	1	8	0	20	86	1.80	3.06	1.05
simulation	KC	2	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	4.27	1.23
simulation	KC	3	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.2	4	2	2	0	0	0	9	33	10.80	2.19	1.16
simulation	KC	4	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	6	22	18.00	3.89	1.18

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TOR	Jameson Taillon	Starter	4.2	4	4	0	3	21	83
TOR	Louis Varland	Closer	1.1	2	4	0	1	9	36
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.1	0	1	0	0	5	20
TOR	Michael Lorenzen	Setup Man	0.2	1	0	0	1	2	8
KC	Daniel Lynch IV	Starter	5.0	1	4	1	8	20	86
KC	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	3	0	0	6	22
KC	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.2	2	4	0	0	9	33
KC	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260904_WAS@LAD

20260904_WAS@LAD.json • 2026-09-04

WAS 4 - LAD 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Alex Call: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: AB current=5 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Kyle Tucker: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Enrique Hernández: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Harry Ford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2; Jacob Young: H current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Yohandy Morales: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1; Brady House: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match WAS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match WAS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=35 matches WAS BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match LAD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match LAD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=38 matches LAD BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.571 -> 0.554 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.57066, 'sample_size': 480, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5375, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.55408, 'published_confidence': 0.561498, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.439.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.527/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 6, LAD 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 4 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for LAD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.56149835, 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_WAS@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 14.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 14.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.667, 'home_run_delta': 0.0955, 'away_run_delta': -0.0955, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022376452285274337}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021581205676461337}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02111901810618391}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020989378062139}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020368460005360415}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03175185194677971, '1': 0.05476754231493199, '2': 0.0836311894192476, '3': 0.11305873550223373, '4': 0.13531028337163362, '5': 0.1433667078814494, '6': 0.13447967510150333, '7': 0.11167496346935295, '8': 0.08210050270809788, '9': 0.05343510203256294, '10': 0.030789192507309205, '11': 0.0157058260981112, '12': 0.007092740965437356, '13': 0.0028356866813491503}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04328857026040023, '1': 0.07389081038064411, '2': 0.10935142282949087, '3': 0.14030568487475792, '4': 0.15607844119415457, '5': 0.15053150062082013, '6': 0.12587187000087913, '7': 0.09125292595618248, '8': 0.05735638010842711, '9': 0.031256006670246375, '10': 0.014767333017063759, '11': 0.006049054086933452}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.1329, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.308, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6286}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.021, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.042, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6286, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.561.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match WAS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match WAS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=35 matches WAS BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match LAD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match LAD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=38 matches LAD BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.571 -> 0.554 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.57066, 'sample_size': 480, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5375, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.55408, 'published_confidence': 0.561498, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.439.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.527/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 6, LAD 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 4 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for LAD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.56149835, 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260904_WAS@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 14.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 14.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.667, 'home_run_delta': 0.0955, 'away_run_delta': -0.0955, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022376452285274337}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021581205676461337}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02111901810618391}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020989378062139}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020368460005360415}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03175185194677971, '1': 0.05476754231493199, '2': 0.0836311894192476, '3': 0.11305873550223373, '4': 0.13531028337163362, '5': 0.1433667078814494, '6': 0.13447967510150333, '7': 0.11167496346935295, '8': 0.08210050270809788, '9': 0.05343510203256294, '10': 0.030789192507309205, '11': 0.0157058260981112, '12': 0.007092740965437356, '13': 0.0028356866813491503}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04328857026040023, '1': 0.07389081038064411, '2': 0.10935142282949087, '3': 0.14030568487475792, '4': 0.15607844119415457, '5': 0.15053150062082013, '6': 0.12587187000087913, '7': 0.09125292595618248, '8': 0.05735638010842711, '9': 0.031256006670246375, '10': 0.014767333017063759, '11': 0.006049054086933452}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.1329, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.308, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6286}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.021, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.042, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6286, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.561.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Alex Call: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: AB current=5 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Kyle Tucker: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Enrique Hernández: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Harry Ford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2; Jacob Young: H current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Yohandy Morales: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1; Brady House: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.2362226339363107	5.856983869023207		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.561	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	6
LAD	0	0	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	WAS	batting	33	7	2	0	1	5	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		7			0		5	4	5					8.0	5	0	0
current	LAD	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		6			0		4	5	12					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	WAS	batting	33	6	3	1	0	4	4	5	12	0	0
simulation	WAS	pitching		7			0		5	4	5					8.0	5	35	140
simulation	LAD	batting	31	7	3	0	0	5	5	4	5	0	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		6			0		4	5	12					9.0	4	38	162

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	WAS		LF	James Wood	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	WAS		DH	Andrés Chaparro	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.333
current	WAS		2B	CJ Abrams	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		C	Harry Ford	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
current	WAS		SS	Nasim Nuñez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	WAS		1B	Yohandy Morales	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		3B	Brady House	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		RF	Dylan Crews	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	LAD		CF	Tommy Edman	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		C	Will Smith	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	LAD		DH	Alex Call	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.200
current	LAD		2B	Miguel Rojas	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Enrique Hernández	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	WAS	1	LF	James Wood	5	4	1	1	0	0	1	2	1	1	0.250
simulation	WAS	2	DH	Andrés Chaparro	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	WAS	3	RF	Dylan Crews	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	WAS	4	2B	CJ Abrams	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	WAS	5	3B	Brady House	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	WAS	6	1B	Yohandy Morales	4	4	2	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	WAS	7	C	Harry Ford	4	4	2	2	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.500
simulation	WAS	8	CF	Jacob Young	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	WAS	9	SS	Nasim Nuñez	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	1	CF	Tommy Edman	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	LAD	2	SS	Mookie Betts	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	LAD	3	LF	Teoscar Hernández	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	LAD	4	C	Will Smith	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	5	3B	Max Muncy	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	6	2B	Miguel Rojas	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	LAD	7	DH	Alex Call	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAD	8	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	LAD	9	1B	Enrique Hernández	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	WAS	1	Jackson Kent	Starter	4.1	5	4	4	4	4	0	0	8.31	5.59	1.71
current	WAS	2	Erik Tolman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.75
current	WAS	3	Clayton Beeter	Closer	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	6.75	3.57	1.30
current	WAS	6	Orlando Ribalta	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	3.77	1.21
current	LAD	1	Blake Snell	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	1	10	0	0	3.38	2.42	1.08
current	LAD	2	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	2	1	1	2	1	0	0	5.40	2.61	0.97
current	LAD	3	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.75	0.97
current	LAD	4	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	9.00	2.57	0.95
simulation	WAS	1	Jackson Kent	Starter	4.1	5	4	4	4	4	22	87	8.31	5.59	1.71
simulation	WAS	2	Clayton Beeter	Closer	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	6	23	6.75	3.57	1.30
simulation	WAS	3	Orlando Ribalta	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	13	0.00	3.77	1.21
simulation	WAS	4	Erik Tolman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	0.00	0.75
simulation	LAD	1	Blake Snell	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	1	10	19	87	3.38	2.42	1.08
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	5	19	9.00	2.57	0.95
simulation	LAD	3	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	5	21	0.00	2.75	0.97
simulation	LAD	4	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	2	1	1	2	1	9	35	5.40	2.61	0.97

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
WAS	Jackson Kent	Starter	4.1	4	5	4	4	22	87
WAS	Erik Tolman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
WAS	Clayton Beeter	Closer	1.1	1	2	0	0	6	23
WAS	Orlando Ribalta	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
LAD	Blake Snell	Starter	5.1	2	2	1	10	19	87
LAD	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	1	2	2	1	9	35
LAD	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	2	0	5	21
LAD	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.