MLB JSON Audit Report

20260903_BOS@BAL

20260903_BOS@BAL.json • 2026-09-03

BOS 5 - BAL 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=7, sim=5; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=11; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Blaze Alexander: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=2; Luis Robert Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Pete Alonso: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Dylan Beavers: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=6 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Eli White: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Nick Sogard: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Caleb Durbin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match BOS pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=39 matches BOS BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=40 matches BAL BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.522 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 377, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5332, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.52165, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.660/0.868.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 4, BAL 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 5 - BAL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-20', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260722', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260722_BAL@BOS_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260720', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260720_BAL@BOS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BOS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BOS', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BOS 5 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BOS 5 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0592, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.61, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2541, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_BOS@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@BAL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.0058, 'away_run_delta': 0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02714234027747738}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02583438647155788}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025469233119157882}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.024772560491870273}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024323286044803112}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05238170882705646, '1': 0.08868524045314105, '2': 0.12807042515676886, '3': 0.15775101864735297, '4': 0.16573770125948473, '5': 0.14852387358387512, '6': 0.11352644575648756, '7': 0.07401566287647009, '8': 0.041160064086544906, '9': 0.01952334681676674, '10': 0.00789874900842958, '11': 0.002725763527621829}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05010180784258782, '1': 0.08499791372421883, '2': 0.12349669055516775, '3': 0.15367193418039726, '4': 0.1637668440627301, '5': 0.1494684691751908, '6': 0.11683295943832683, '7': 0.07821199309897493, '8': 0.04484081662751839, '9': 0.022017391132197063, '10': 0.009258707973879987, '11': 0.003334472188810219}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.7571, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.68, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.2541}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BOS 5 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BOS 5 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0592, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.61, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2541, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 5 - 4 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 5 - 4 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BOS wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match BOS pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=39 matches BOS BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=40 matches BAL BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.522 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 377, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5332, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.52165, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.660/0.868.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 4, BAL 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 5 - BAL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-20', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260722', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260722_BAL@BOS_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260720', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260720_BAL@BOS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BOS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BOS', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BOS 5 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BOS 5 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0592, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.61, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2541, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_BOS@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@BAL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.0058, 'away_run_delta': 0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02714234027747738}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02583438647155788}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025469233119157882}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.024772560491870273}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024323286044803112}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05238170882705646, '1': 0.08868524045314105, '2': 0.12807042515676886, '3': 0.15775101864735297, '4': 0.16573770125948473, '5': 0.14852387358387512, '6': 0.11352644575648756, '7': 0.07401566287647009, '8': 0.041160064086544906, '9': 0.01952334681676674, '10': 0.00789874900842958, '11': 0.002725763527621829}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05010180784258782, '1': 0.08499791372421883, '2': 0.12349669055516775, '3': 0.15367193418039726, '4': 0.1637668440627301, '5': 0.1494684691751908, '6': 0.11683295943832683, '7': 0.07821199309897493, '8': 0.04484081662751839, '9': 0.022017391132197063, '10': 0.009258707973879987, '11': 0.003334472188810219}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.7571, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.68, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.2541}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BOS 5 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BOS 5 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0592, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.61, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2541, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 5 - 4 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 5 - 4 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BOS wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=7, sim=5; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=11; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Blaze Alexander: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=2; Luis Robert Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Pete Alonso: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Dylan Beavers: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=6 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Eli White: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Nick Sogard: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Caleb Durbin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.417132654312412	4.14659838549456		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	5	4
BAL	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	4	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BOS	batting	35	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		5			1		4	3	11					9.0	4	0	0
current	BAL	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		4			2		5	4	7					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	BOS	batting	34	4	1	0	2	5	5	4	7	0	2
simulation	BOS	pitching		5			1		4	3	11					10.0	4	39	156
simulation	BAL	batting	34	5	1	0	1	4	4	3	11	1	1
simulation	BAL	pitching		4			2		5	4	7					10.0	5	40	162

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	BOS		DH	Roman Anthony	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		1B	Mickey Gasper	0	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.333
current	BOS		C	Adley Rutschman	0	6	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.167
current	BOS		LF	Jarren Duran	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		CF	Eli White	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.000
current	BOS		SS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	BOS		2B	Nick Sogard	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		2B	Blaze Alexander	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		DH	Coby Mayo	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		CF	Luis Robert Jr.	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	BAL		RF	Leody Taveras	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		SS	Gunnar Henderson	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	BAL		3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	BAL		LF	Dylan Beavers	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		C	Carlos Narváez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	1	DH	Roman Anthony	5	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	2	1B	Mickey Gasper	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	BOS	3	C	Adley Rutschman	5	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0.333
simulation	BOS	4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	5	2B	Nick Sogard	4	4	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	6	3B	Caleb Durbin	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	7	LF	Jarren Duran	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	8	CF	Eli White	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	9	SS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	1	2B	Blaze Alexander	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	2	DH	Coby Mayo	5	5	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	BAL	3	CF	Luis Robert Jr.	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	4	1B	Pete Alonso	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	5	SS	Gunnar Henderson	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	6	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4	4	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.750
simulation	BAL	7	RF	Leody Taveras	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	8	LF	Dylan Beavers	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	9	C	Carlos Narváez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BOS	1	Jake Bennett	Starter	5.2	4	3	3	3	7	1	0	0	4.76	3.27	1.04
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.18	1.05
current	BOS	3	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.05	1.20
current	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.00	0.87
current	BOS	7	Jovani Morán	Reliever	0.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0
current	BAL	1	Brandon Young	Starter	5.2	3	4	4	3	5	2	0	0	6.35	3.38	1.34
current	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.27	1.39
current	BAL	3	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.56	0.89
current	BAL	5	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	9.00	2.23	0.88
simulation	BOS	1	Jake Bennett	Starter	5.2	4	3	3	3	7	1	25	98	4.76	3.27	1.04
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	1.18	1.05
simulation	BOS	3	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.05	1.20
simulation	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.00	0.87
simulation	BOS	5	Jovani Morán	Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	0	3	11	13.50	3.39	1.10
simulation	BAL	1	Brandon Young	Starter	5.2	3	4	4	3	5	2	25	100	6.35	3.38	1.34
simulation	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.27	1.39
simulation	BAL	3	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.56	0.89
simulation	BAL	4	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	8	32	4.50	2.23	0.88

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BOS	Jake Bennett	Starter	5.2	3	4	3	7	25	98
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
BOS	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
BOS	Jovani Morán	Reliever	0.2	1	1	0	1	3	11
BAL	Brandon Young	Starter	5.2	4	3	3	5	25	100
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
BAL	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
BAL	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	1	1	1	1	8	32

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260903_CHW@HOU

20260903_CHW@HOU.json • 2026-09-03

CHW 4 - HOU 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=11, sim=13).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4; Jake Rogers: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=13; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SF current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=4; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Daulton Varsho: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; LaMonte Wade Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match HOU pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match HOU pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=41 matches HOU BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match CHW pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=40 matches CHW BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.579 -> 0.569 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.579311, 'sample_size': 304, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5592, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.569255, 'published_confidence': 0.559116, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.441.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.559.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.559.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.517/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 8, HOU 13.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 4 - HOU 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for HOU; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-09-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260902', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260902_CHW@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260901_CHW@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260831', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260831_CHW@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260726', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260726_HOU@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260725', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260725_HOU@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'HOU', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'HOU', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0402, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.066, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'HOU', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.4151, 'winner': 'HOU', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_CHW@HOU.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@HOU.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0288, 'away_run_delta': 0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021739545488447597}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02103023122964983}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020992345252162637}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020307410517861165}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02000697287056929}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.028797959261630764, '1': 0.049811858468562155, '2': 0.07670581505422976, '3': 0.10515945909816596, '4': 0.1283491241089631, '5': 0.13946395789208735, '6': 0.13491355117020823, '7': 0.11619131657604029, '8': 0.08908739968106671, '9': 0.060811176238448825, '10': 0.03695515566340423, '11': 0.01999360828635625, '12': 0.009630122985042159, '13': 0.004129495515794185}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04314034715999286, '1': 0.07364771394722171, '2': 0.10903567642034916, '3': 0.13999473083795558, '4': 0.15587930973010924, '5': 0.15052165139616808, '6': 0.12605009900858688, '7': 0.09154215336813866, '8': 0.057654442054079436, '9': 0.03149039725920637, '10': 0.014916166466242789, '11': 0.006127312351949447}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6364, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.004, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4151}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0402, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.066, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'HOU', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.4151, 'winner': 'HOU', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 4 - 5 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 4 - 5 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=HOU, simulation=HOU, published=HOU.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.559.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): HOU wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: HOU wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: HOU wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match HOU pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match HOU pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=41 matches HOU BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match CHW pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=40 matches CHW BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.579 -> 0.569 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.579311, 'sample_size': 304, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5592, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.569255, 'published_confidence': 0.559116, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.441.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.559.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.559.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.517/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 8, HOU 13.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 4 - HOU 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for HOU; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-09-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260902', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260902_CHW@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260901_CHW@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260831', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260831_CHW@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260726', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260726_HOU@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260725', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260725_HOU@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'HOU', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'HOU', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0402, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.066, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'HOU', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.4151, 'winner': 'HOU', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_CHW@HOU.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@HOU.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0288, 'away_run_delta': 0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021739545488447597}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02103023122964983}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020992345252162637}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020307410517861165}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02000697287056929}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.028797959261630764, '1': 0.049811858468562155, '2': 0.07670581505422976, '3': 0.10515945909816596, '4': 0.1283491241089631, '5': 0.13946395789208735, '6': 0.13491355117020823, '7': 0.11619131657604029, '8': 0.08908739968106671, '9': 0.060811176238448825, '10': 0.03695515566340423, '11': 0.01999360828635625, '12': 0.009630122985042159, '13': 0.004129495515794185}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04314034715999286, '1': 0.07364771394722171, '2': 0.10903567642034916, '3': 0.13999473083795558, '4': 0.15587930973010924, '5': 0.15052165139616808, '6': 0.12605009900858688, '7': 0.09154215336813866, '8': 0.057654442054079436, '9': 0.03149039725920637, '10': 0.014916166466242789, '11': 0.006127312351949447}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6364, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.004, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4151}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0402, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.066, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'HOU', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.4151, 'winner': 'HOU', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 4 - 5 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 4 - 5 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=HOU, simulation=HOU, published=HOU.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.559.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): HOU wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: HOU wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: HOU wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=11, sim=13).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4; Jake Rogers: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=13; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SF current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=4; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Daulton Varsho: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; LaMonte Wade Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.180573788353939	5.2177704234137785		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.559	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	4	8
HOU	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	1	5	13

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHW	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	5	4	9	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		11			1		5	1	12					8.0	5	0	0
current	HOU	batting	35	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		8			2		4	6	7					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	CHW	batting	35	8	3	0	2	4	4	6	7	0	0
simulation	CHW	pitching		13			1		5	1	12					8.2	5	40	166
simulation	HOU	batting	37	13	3	1	1	5	5	1	12	2	0
simulation	HOU	pitching		8			2		4	6	7					9.0	4	41	183

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CHW		1B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	0.250
current	CHW		LF	Sam Antonacci	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		RF	Braden Montgomery	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		DH	Andrew Benintendi	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		CF	Tristan Peters	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	CHW		C	Jake Rogers	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CHW		3B	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		2B	Chase Meidroth	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		SS	Colson Montgomery	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	HOU		2B	Jose Altuve	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		DH	Yordan Alvarez	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	HOU		SS	Jeremy Peña	0	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	HOU		RF	Taylor Trammell	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	HOU		C	Yainer Diaz	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	HOU		CF	Daulton Varsho	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		LF	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	HOU		1B	Christian Walker	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	1	LF	Sam Antonacci	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	CHW	2	1B	Munetaka Murakami	5	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0.333
simulation	CHW	3	3B	Miguel Vargas	5	3	2	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	0.667
simulation	CHW	4	DH	Andrew Benintendi	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.500
simulation	CHW	5	RF	Braden Montgomery	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	CHW	6	SS	Colson Montgomery	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHW	7	2B	Chase Meidroth	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	8	CF	Tristan Peters	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHW	9	C	Jake Rogers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	HOU	1	SS	Jeremy Peña	5	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.750
simulation	HOU	2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.400
simulation	HOU	3	3B	Isaac Paredes	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	HOU	4	2B	Jose Altuve	5	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.750
simulation	HOU	5	CF	Daulton Varsho	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	HOU	6	1B	Christian Walker	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	HOU	7	RF	Taylor Trammell	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0.000
simulation	HOU	8	C	Yainer Diaz	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
simulation	HOU	9	LF	LaMonte Wade Jr.	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHW	1	Luis Castillo	Starter	4.2	7	4	4	1	6	1	0	0	7.71	5.31	1.44
current	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.40	1.03
current	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	2.44	1.07
current	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13.50	2.89	1.26
current	HOU	1	Hunter Brown	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	4	3	2	0	0	4.76	3.33	1.30
current	HOU	2	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.93	1.39
current	HOU	3	Josh Hader	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.48	0.59
current	HOU	4	Steven Okert	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	9.00	2.13	0.87
current	HOU	5	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.06	1.17
simulation	CHW	1	Luis Castillo	Starter	4.2	7	3	3	1	6	1	24	96	5.79	5.31	1.44
simulation	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	5	30	0.00	2.40	1.03
simulation	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	2	0	0	0	3	0	6	23	0.00	2.44	1.07
simulation	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	3	2	2	0	1	0	5	17	13.50	2.89	1.26
simulation	HOU	1	Hunter Brown	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	4	3	2	27	117	4.76	3.33	1.30
simulation	HOU	2	Josh Hader	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	0.48	0.59
simulation	HOU	3	Steven Okert	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	5	20	9.00	2.13	0.87
simulation	HOU	4	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	22	0.00	3.93	1.39
simulation	HOU	5	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	3	11	0.00	3.06	1.17

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHW	Luis Castillo	Starter	4.2	3	7	1	6	24	96
CHW	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	0	1	0	2	5	30
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	0	2	0	3	6	23
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	3	0	1	5	17
HOU	Hunter Brown	Starter	5.2	3	6	4	3	27	117
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	22
HOU	Josh Hader	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
HOU	Steven Okert	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	1	5	20
HOU	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	1	1	1	3	11

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260903_MIA@KC

20260903_MIA@KC.json • 2026-09-03

MIA 5 - KC 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Michael Massey: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=1; Jac Caglianone: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Rojas: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Griffin Conine: AB current=3 box=5; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Kyle Stowers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Agustín Ramírez: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Graham Pauley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=36 matches MIA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match KC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match KC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=41 matches KC BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.484 -> 0.509 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.48373, 'sample_size': 471, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.535, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.509365, 'published_confidence': 0.547642, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.452.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.660/0.868.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 10, KC 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 5 - KC 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.54764165, 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260902', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'KC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.555608, 'artifact': '20260902_MIA@KC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'KC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.646375, 'artifact': '20260901_MIA@KC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_MIA@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@KC.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.045, 'away_run_delta': 0.045, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.027260982179708917}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.026524350437002697}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025297850532083055}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.025238907199931746}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.024614265487299142}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05591586175212937, '1': 0.09437176553934942, '2': 0.1350037086479908, '3': 0.16369894458657835, '4': 0.16824517613771023, '5': 0.14656690741763548, '6': 0.10822455002434812, '7': 0.06773485643834136, '8': 0.03593314268607091, '9': 0.016157521801431714, '10': 0.0061581584709058884, '11': 0.001989406497508194}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04832750777898342, '1': 0.08211807534705659, '2': 0.11988208728302248, '3': 0.15036300661230567, '4': 0.16203128556503488, '5': 0.15001266472729932, '6': 0.11932409382093014, '7': 0.0815454127873725, '8': 0.04787867215891133, '9': 0.024152151857891668, '10': 0.01046744614840718, '11': 0.0038975959127848063}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8607, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.216, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4839}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0209, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.134, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIA', 'model_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'MIA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4839, 'winner': 'MIA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 5 - 4 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 5 - 4 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIA, simulation=MIA, published=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.548.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=36 matches MIA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match KC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match KC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=41 matches KC BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.484 -> 0.509 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.48373, 'sample_size': 471, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.535, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.509365, 'published_confidence': 0.547642, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.452.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.660/0.868.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 10, KC 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 5 - KC 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.54764165, 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260902', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'KC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.555608, 'artifact': '20260902_MIA@KC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'KC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.646375, 'artifact': '20260901_MIA@KC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_MIA@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@KC.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.045, 'away_run_delta': 0.045, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.027260982179708917}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.026524350437002697}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025297850532083055}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.025238907199931746}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.024614265487299142}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05591586175212937, '1': 0.09437176553934942, '2': 0.1350037086479908, '3': 0.16369894458657835, '4': 0.16824517613771023, '5': 0.14656690741763548, '6': 0.10822455002434812, '7': 0.06773485643834136, '8': 0.03593314268607091, '9': 0.016157521801431714, '10': 0.0061581584709058884, '11': 0.001989406497508194}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04832750777898342, '1': 0.08211807534705659, '2': 0.11988208728302248, '3': 0.15036300661230567, '4': 0.16203128556503488, '5': 0.15001266472729932, '6': 0.11932409382093014, '7': 0.0815454127873725, '8': 0.04787867215891133, '9': 0.024152151857891668, '10': 0.01046744614840718, '11': 0.0038975959127848063}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8607, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.216, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4839}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0209, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.134, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIA', 'model_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'MIA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4839, 'winner': 'MIA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 5 - 4 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 5 - 4 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIA, simulation=MIA, published=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.548.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Michael Massey: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=1; Jac Caglianone: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Rojas: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Griffin Conine: AB current=3 box=5; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Kyle Stowers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Agustín Ramírez: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Graham Pauley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.948586990366661	4.032766840899002		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.548	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	5	10
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	4	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIA	batting	32	8	2	0	1	5	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		5			1		4	3	5					9.0	4	0	0
current	KC	batting	35	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		10			1		5	4	5					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	MIA	batting	37	10	3	0	1	5	5	4	5	0	0
simulation	MIA	pitching		5			1		4	3	5					9.0	4	36	155
simulation	KC	batting	32	5	1	0	1	4	4	3	5	0	1
simulation	KC	pitching		10			1		5	4	5					9.0	5	41	167

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	MIA		RF	Griffin Conine	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIA		2B	Javier Sanoja	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIA		1B	Kyle Stowers	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		LF	Heriberto Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		DH	Agustín Ramírez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		CF	Jakob Marsee	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		3B	Graham Pauley	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		C	Joe Mack	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	KC		1B	Salvador Perez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		DH	Vinnie Pasquantino	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	KC		C	Carter Jensen	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	KC		2B	Michael Massey	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	KC		RF	Jac Caglianone	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	5	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.200
current	KC		3B	Josh Rojas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		CF	Kyle Isbel	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	1	LF	Heriberto Hernández	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	MIA	2	1B	Kyle Stowers	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	3	SS	Otto Lopez	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	4	RF	Griffin Conine	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	MIA	5	2B	Javier Sanoja	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	MIA	6	CF	Jakob Marsee	4	3	2	2	0	1	2	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	MIA	7	DH	Agustín Ramírez	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	8	C	Joe Mack	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIA	9	3B	Graham Pauley	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	KC	1	C	Carter Jensen	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	KC	3	RF	Jac Caglianone	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	4	1B	Salvador Perez	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	KC	5	DH	Vinnie Pasquantino	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	6	2B	Michael Massey	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	KC	7	3B	Josh Rojas	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	KC	8	LF	Isaac Collins	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	KC	9	CF	Kyle Isbel	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIA	1	Sandy Alcantara	Starter	6.1	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	1.42	3.46	1.19
current	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.77	1.31
current	MIA	3	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	3.98	1.29
current	MIA	4	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	3	2	2	1	2	1	0	0	27.00	3.30	1.13
current	KC	1	Michael Wacha	Starter	6.1	8	3	3	2	5	0	0	0	4.26	3.32	1.10
current	KC	2	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.27	1.21
current	KC	3	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	18.00	4.35	1.26
current	KC	4	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.95	1.20
simulation	MIA	1	Sandy Alcantara	Starter	6.1	0	1	1	1	2	0	21	96	1.42	3.46	1.19
simulation	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	19	0.00	3.77	1.31
simulation	MIA	3	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	5	19	9.00	3.98	1.29
simulation	MIA	4	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	3	2	2	1	2	1	6	21	27.00	3.30	1.13
simulation	KC	1	Michael Wacha	Starter	6.1	8	3	3	2	5	0	29	119	4.26	3.32	1.10
simulation	KC	2	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	1	6	23	18.00	4.35	1.26
simulation	KC	3	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.27	1.21
simulation	KC	4	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.00	3.95	1.20

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIA	Sandy Alcantara	Starter	6.1	1	0	1	2	21	96
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	19
MIA	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	19
MIA	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	2	3	1	2	6	21
KC	Michael Wacha	Starter	6.1	3	8	2	5	29	119
KC	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
KC	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.0	2	2	1	0	6	23
KC	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260903_MIL@CHC

20260903_MIL@CHC.json • 2026-09-03

MIL 7 - CHC 6

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 98INFO 9

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Pitch count summary differs by pitcher Pitch-count rows disagree with individual pitching box-score rows. Recalculate pitch_count_summary from the same final pitcher ledger used by box_score.pitching.	0C / 0E / 1W	MIL	MIL pitch_count row for Logan Henderson differs from pitching box score: hits_allowed/H: summary=3, box=2.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	Logan Henderson	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count row for Logan Henderson differs from pitching box score: hits_allowed/H: summary=3, box=2.

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	Logan Henderson	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count row for Logan Henderson differs from pitching box score: hits_allowed/H: summary=3, box=2.
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC		CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL		CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC		CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=11; BB: current=4, sim=5).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC		CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=2, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC		CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=2; Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Pete Crow-Armstrong: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ian Happ: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL		CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=5).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL		CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL		CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Jackson Chourio: AB current=6 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brice Turang: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; William Contreras: AB current=5 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Joey Ortiz: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation				RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHC		BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL		BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC		BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL		BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC		BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL		BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC		BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL		BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC		BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC		BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match MIL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC		BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match MIL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC		BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC		PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=38 matches MIL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC		RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL		BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match CHC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL		BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL		BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match CHC pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL		BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL		PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=43 matches CHC BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL		RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration				CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.563 -> 0.548 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.562857, 'sample_size': 377, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5332, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.548029, 'published_confidence': 0.533686, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC		CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC		CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC		CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC		CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL		CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL		CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL		CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL		CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage				H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction				CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction				CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction				CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction				CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.466.
PASS	enhanced_prediction				LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 13.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction				LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction				LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.500/0.682.
PASS	final_decision				FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings				INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings				INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings				INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings				INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 11, CHC 5.
PASS	innings				INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 7 - CHC 6.
PASS	matchup_recency				GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency				MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'CHC', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-09-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-08-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 17, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -14, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 2, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260902', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5396270000000001, 'artifact': '20260902_MIL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.698612, 'artifact': '20260901_MIL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260831', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 14, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260831_MIL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260628', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260628_CHC@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260627', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260627_CHC@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1494, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.29, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1714, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata				DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata				FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_MIL@CHC.
PASS	metadata				FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@CHC.
PASS	optimization_roadmap				OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 12.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 12.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0692, 'away_run_delta': -0.0692, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 14.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap				OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016595942361042865}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.015948176447924622}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01577957211742411}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01577740258156771}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015636480565280633}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02101147029384995, '1': 0.03662087084259193, '2': 0.05769361948650552, '3': 0.0821587453228049, '4': 0.10575641127810086, '5': 0.12305138495476428, '6': 0.12941755815424041, '7': 0.12303446660046087, '8': 0.10572733234597598, '9': 0.0821248619253515, '10': 0.05766189681025891, '11': 0.03659570271777473, '12': 0.020994143028460914, '13': 0.010886621064862014, '14': 0.005102875301404302, '15': 0.002162039872592937}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.02020804740059175, '1': 0.03524976545949336, '2': 0.055671678719714957, '3': 0.07960834739759462, '4': 0.10306924751902813, '5': 0.12082194091967804, '6': 0.12823563199410506, '7': 0.12323039219236015, '8': 0.10721934518451497, '9': 0.08446458958698219, '10': 0.0602451940403348, '11': 0.03890597869072451, '12': 0.022748694968078503, '13': 0.01204322599007133, '14': 0.005772652173083409, '15': 0.002505267763644007}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap				OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3821, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.22, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1714}
PASS	optimization_roadmap				OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1494, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.29, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1714, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline				PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch				PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count				PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count				PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 199.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC		PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC		PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 199.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL		PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength				PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching				PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC		PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC		STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL		PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL		STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC		PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC		STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL		PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL		STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison				PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 7 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison				PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 7 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison				PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 7-6.
PASS	prediction_comparison				SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability				CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.534.
PASS	recent_form				RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form				RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report				REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema				SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score				GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 7-6.
PASS	score				SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 7-6.
PASS	score				SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-6.
PASS	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score				TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-6, final 7-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score				TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 13.
PASS	score				WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 7-6.
PASS	score	cross-schema			CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC		RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC		TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL		RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL		TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match MIL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match MIL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=38 matches MIL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match CHC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match CHC pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=43 matches CHC BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.563 -> 0.548 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.562857, 'sample_size': 377, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5332, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.548029, 'published_confidence': 0.533686, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.466.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 13.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.500/0.682.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 11, CHC 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 7 - CHC 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'CHC', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-09-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-08-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 17, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -14, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 2, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260902', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5396270000000001, 'artifact': '20260902_MIL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.698612, 'artifact': '20260901_MIL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260831', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 14, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260831_MIL@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260628', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260628_CHC@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260627', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260627_CHC@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1494, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.29, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1714, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_MIL@CHC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@CHC.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 12.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 12.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0692, 'away_run_delta': -0.0692, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 14.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016595942361042865}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.015948176447924622}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01577957211742411}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01577740258156771}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015636480565280633}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02101147029384995, '1': 0.03662087084259193, '2': 0.05769361948650552, '3': 0.0821587453228049, '4': 0.10575641127810086, '5': 0.12305138495476428, '6': 0.12941755815424041, '7': 0.12303446660046087, '8': 0.10572733234597598, '9': 0.0821248619253515, '10': 0.05766189681025891, '11': 0.03659570271777473, '12': 0.020994143028460914, '13': 0.010886621064862014, '14': 0.005102875301404302, '15': 0.002162039872592937}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.02020804740059175, '1': 0.03524976545949336, '2': 0.055671678719714957, '3': 0.07960834739759462, '4': 0.10306924751902813, '5': 0.12082194091967804, '6': 0.12823563199410506, '7': 0.12323039219236015, '8': 0.10721934518451497, '9': 0.08446458958698219, '10': 0.0602451940403348, '11': 0.03890597869072451, '12': 0.022748694968078503, '13': 0.01204322599007133, '14': 0.005772652173083409, '15': 0.002505267763644007}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3821, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.22, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1714}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1494, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.29, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1714, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 199.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 199.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 7 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 7 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 7-6.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.534.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 7-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 7-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-6, final 7-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 13.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 7-6.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=11; BB: current=4, sim=5).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=2, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=2; Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Pete Crow-Armstrong: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ian Happ: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=5).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Jackson Chourio: AB current=6 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brice Turang: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; William Contreras: AB current=5 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Joey Ortiz: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.819299747290443	4.036387910226504		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7	6	0.534	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	7	11
CHC	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	6	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIL	batting	36	9	2	0	1	5	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		6			4		6	3	11					9.0	6	0	0
current	CHC	batting	36	9	2	0	2	6	5	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		9			0		7	4	9					9.0	7	0	0
simulation	MIL	batting	38	11	4	0	0	7	7	5	9	0	0
simulation	MIL	pitching		5			4		6	3	11					9.0	6	38	162
simulation	CHC	batting	32	5	1	0	4	6	6	3	11	0	3
simulation	CHC	pitching		11			0		7	5	9					9.0	7	43	199

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	MIL		RF	Jake Bauers	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	6	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.167
current	MIL		1B	Andrew Vaughn	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		2B	Brice Turang	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		C	William Contreras	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		DH	Christian Yelich	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		SS	Joey Ortiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIL		3B	David Hamilton	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		3B	Alex Bregman	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		SS	Nico Hoerner	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	CHC		RF	Seiya Suzuki	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		LF	Ian Happ	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		DH	Michael Conforto	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		2B	Pedro Ramirez	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		C	Carson Kelly	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	1	LF	Jackson Chourio	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	MIL	2	2B	Brice Turang	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	MIL	3	C	William Contreras	5	3	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIL	4	RF	Jake Bauers	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	5	1B	Andrew Vaughn	5	5	1	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	MIL	6	DH	Christian Yelich	5	5	2	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	MIL	7	CF	Garrett Mitchell	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	8	SS	Joey Ortiz	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIL	9	3B	David Hamilton	4	4	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	CHC	1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	5	5	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	5	4	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	3	1B	Michael Busch	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0.667
simulation	CHC	4	3B	Alex Bregman	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	5	LF	Ian Happ	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	6	SS	Nico Hoerner	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	CHC	7	2B	Pedro Ramirez	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	8	DH	Michael Conforto	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	9	C	Carson Kelly	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIL	1	Logan Henderson	Starter	6.0	3	3	3	2	7	2	0	0	4.50	2.48	0.83
current	MIL	2	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	9.00	3.16	1.34
current	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	18.00	1.97	0.99
current	MIL	4	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.52	0.81
current	CHC	1	Kevin Gausman	Starter	5.2	6	5	5	4	7	0	0	0	7.94	4.52	1.27
current	CHC	2	Colin Rea	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.75	4.45	1.35
current	CHC	3	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	3.15	1.23
current	CHC	4	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.20	1.20
simulation	MIL	1	Logan Henderson	Starter	6.0	2	3	3	2	7	2	25	105	4.50	2.48	0.83
simulation	MIL	2	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	1.52	0.81
simulation	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	1	6	23	18.00	1.97	0.99
simulation	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	1	4	21	9.00	3.16	1.34
simulation	CHC	1	Kevin Gausman	Starter	5.2	6	4	4	4	7	0	27	117	6.35	4.52	1.27
simulation	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	21	0.00	3.15	1.23
simulation	CHC	3	Colin Rea	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	29	0.00	4.45	1.35
simulation	CHC	4	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	5	3	3	1	1	0	9	32	27.00	3.20	1.20

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIL	Logan Henderson	Starter	6.0	3	3	2	7	25	105
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	0	3	4	21
MIL	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	1	0	6	23
MIL	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
CHC	Kevin Gausman	Starter	5.2	4	6	4	7	27	117
CHC	Colin Rea	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	29
CHC	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	21
CHC	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	5	1	1	9	32

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	0	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	0	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	0	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	0	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	0	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	warning	1	1	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260903_OAK@SEA

20260903_OAK@SEA.json • 2026-09-03

OAK 4 - SEA 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jonah Heim: AB current=3 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brian Serven: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=2; Michael Stefanic: AB current=3 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=40, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=7, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=3; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cal Raleigh: AB current=5 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Lazaro Montes: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Brock Rodden: H current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cole Young: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match SEA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match SEA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=40 matches SEA BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match OAK pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match OAK pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match OAK pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=37 matches OAK BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.687 -> 0.623 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.687401, 'sample_size': 295, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5593, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.62335, 'published_confidence': 0.637251, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.363.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.637.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.637.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.479/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 7, SEA 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 4 - SEA 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SEA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.637251, 'h2h_net_margin': 18, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_OAK@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@SEA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 16.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 16.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0923, 'away_run_delta': -0.0923, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020447278715208243}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02019291488747933}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019992054664378967}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019743353816729505}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01858678745342786}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02444420167438076, '1': 0.04245714548091117, '2': 0.06620000760561866, '3': 0.09266113177571135, '4': 0.11643122725339444, '5': 0.13133293915991798, '6': 0.1329872990825817, '7': 0.12088682785034431, '8': 0.09864614339475646, '9': 0.07226259513964617, '10': 0.047520315019035586, '11': 0.028052875317363276, '12': 0.014866466810807935, '13': 0.007072459407170474, '14': 0.0030204070478722245, '15': 0.0011579579804874263}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.041619822375117986, '1': 0.07115036389874542, '2': 0.10577676518182272, '3': 0.13675389036949498, '4': 0.15375362050560187, '5': 0.15033055639369303, '6': 0.12782194780653505, '7': 0.09451480665351664, '8': 0.06077577728247079, '9': 0.033985795995658714, '10': 0.016527251011072653, '11': 0.006989402526270365}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.05, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.204, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6111}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 6 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 6 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0394, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.006, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6111, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 172.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 172.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 4 - 6 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 4 - 6 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.637.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match SEA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match SEA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=40 matches SEA BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match OAK pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match OAK pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match OAK pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=37 matches OAK BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.687 -> 0.623 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.687401, 'sample_size': 295, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5593, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.62335, 'published_confidence': 0.637251, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.363.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.637.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.637.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.479/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 7, SEA 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 4 - SEA 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SEA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.637251, 'h2h_net_margin': 18, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_OAK@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@SEA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 16.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 16.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0923, 'away_run_delta': -0.0923, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020447278715208243}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02019291488747933}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019992054664378967}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019743353816729505}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01858678745342786}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02444420167438076, '1': 0.04245714548091117, '2': 0.06620000760561866, '3': 0.09266113177571135, '4': 0.11643122725339444, '5': 0.13133293915991798, '6': 0.1329872990825817, '7': 0.12088682785034431, '8': 0.09864614339475646, '9': 0.07226259513964617, '10': 0.047520315019035586, '11': 0.028052875317363276, '12': 0.014866466810807935, '13': 0.007072459407170474, '14': 0.0030204070478722245, '15': 0.0011579579804874263}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.041619822375117986, '1': 0.07115036389874542, '2': 0.10577676518182272, '3': 0.13675389036949498, '4': 0.15375362050560187, '5': 0.15033055639369303, '6': 0.12782194780653505, '7': 0.09451480665351664, '8': 0.06077577728247079, '9': 0.033985795995658714, '10': 0.016527251011072653, '11': 0.006989402526270365}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.05, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.204, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6111}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 6 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 6 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0394, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.006, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6111, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 172.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 172.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 4 - 6 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 4 - 6 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.637.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jonah Heim: AB current=3 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brian Serven: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=2; Michael Stefanic: AB current=3 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=40, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=7, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=3; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cal Raleigh: AB current=5 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Lazaro Montes: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Brock Rodden: H current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cole Young: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.015792775827129	5.036467105188155		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	6	0.637	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	0	4	7
SEA	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	6	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	OAK	batting	33	9	2	0	1	4	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		8			3		6	4	3					8.0	6	0	0
current	SEA	batting	40	9	1	0	2	5	7	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		7			2		4	6	8					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	OAK	batting	34	7	2	0	2	4	4	6	8	0	0
simulation	OAK	pitching		8			3		6	4	3					8.0	6	37	141
simulation	SEA	batting	32	8	1	0	3	6	6	4	3	0	1
simulation	SEA	pitching		7			2		4	6	8					9.0	4	40	172

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	OAK		DH	Jonah Heim	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		LF	Zack Gelof	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	OAK		1B	Jeff McNeil	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		SS	Alika Williams	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		RF	Lawrence Butler	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	OAK		C	Brian Serven	0	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		2B	Michael Stefanic	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		3B	Max Muncy	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SEA		C	Cal Raleigh	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	SEA		DH	Dominic Canzone	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	SEA		LF	Randy Arozarena	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	SEA		RF	Lazaro Montes	0	5	1	0	1	2	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	SEA		3B	Brock Rodden	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
current	SEA		2B	Cole Young	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		SS	J.P. Crawford	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	1	CF	Henry Bolte	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	2	LF	Zack Gelof	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	3	RF	Lawrence Butler	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	4	DH	Jonah Heim	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	OAK	5	1B	Jeff McNeil	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	6	2B	Michael Stefanic	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	7	C	Brian Serven	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	8	SS	Alika Williams	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	OAK	9	3B	Max Muncy	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.333
simulation	SEA	1	LF	Randy Arozarena	5	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	SEA	2	DH	Dominic Canzone	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	4	C	Cal Raleigh	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	SEA	5	1B	Josh Naylor	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	SEA	6	2B	Cole Young	4	4	1	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	7	RF	Lazaro Montes	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	SEA	8	SS	J.P. Crawford	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	9	3B	Brock Rodden	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	OAK	1	Jack Perkins	Starter	4.0	5	3	3	1	2	2	0	0	6.75	6.42	1.49
current	OAK	3	Hogan Harris	Setup Man	1.0	3	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	27.00	3.49	1.50
current	OAK	4	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.32	1.36
current	OAK	6	Elvis Alvarado	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.00	1.18
current	SEA	1	Kade Anderson	Starter	4.1	5	3	3	0	4	2	0	0	6.23	4.50	1.30
current	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.93	1.15
current	SEA	3	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.25	1.36
current	SEA	4	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.58	1.10
current	SEA	6	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	0.2	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	13.50	3.72	1.38
simulation	OAK	1	Jack Perkins	Starter	4.0	5	3	3	1	2	2	19	69	6.75	6.42	1.49
simulation	OAK	2	Elvis Alvarado	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	2	1	0	6	25	0.00	4.00	1.18
simulation	OAK	3	Hogan Harris	Setup Man	1.0	3	3	3	1	0	1	7	26	27.00	3.49	1.50
simulation	OAK	4	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	3.32	1.36
simulation	SEA	1	Kade Anderson	Starter	4.1	5	3	3	0	4	2	18	82	6.23	4.50	1.30
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	3.93	1.15
simulation	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	0.2	0	1	1	4	1	0	6	24	13.50	3.72	1.38
simulation	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	0	6	23	0.00	3.25	1.36
simulation	SEA	5	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	6	26	0.00	2.58	1.10

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
OAK	Jack Perkins	Starter	4.0	3	5	1	2	19	69
OAK	Hogan Harris	Setup Man	1.0	3	3	1	0	7	26
OAK	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	21
OAK	Elvis Alvarado	Closer	1.1	0	0	2	1	6	25
SEA	Kade Anderson	Starter	4.1	3	5	0	4	18	82
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17
SEA	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	2	1	1	6	23
SEA	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	1	0	6	26
SEA	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	0.2	1	0	4	1	6	24

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260903_SF@PIT

20260903_SF@PIT.json • 2026-09-03

SF 5 - PIT 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Lowe: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Rafael Flores Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Spencer Horwitz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Oneil Cruz: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 3B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Eldridge: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Rafael Devers: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Drew Gilbert: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Turner Hill: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Nate Furman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Koss: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Andrew Knizner: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match SF pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=36 matches SF BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match PIT pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=37 matches PIT BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.546 -> 0.539 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.545736, 'sample_size': 377, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5332, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.539468, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.569/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 6, PIT 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 5 - PIT 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-09-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 13, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-05-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260902', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54559, 'artifact': '20260902_SF@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544522, 'artifact': '20260901_SF@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PIT', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PIT', 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 5 - 6 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 5 - 6 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0199, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.438, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3866, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_SF@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@PIT.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0346, 'away_run_delta': -0.0346, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020147338760299952}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019250620856780924}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.019002153255212584}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0189302144560362}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018730070592930716}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.029974937146815754, '1': 0.05178946762385955, '2': 0.07948284237396337, '3': 0.10835628567336764, '4': 0.13121503687548505, '5': 0.141143824592601, '6': 0.13486179419696723, '7': 0.11446290459340484, '8': 0.08629574226574059, '9': 0.05779133836783208, '10': 0.03437834084562707, '11': 0.018165855330130667, '12': 0.008526593653708083, '13': 0.0035550364604968808}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.031223009565874427, '1': 0.053882163508622564, '2': 0.08240209656743477, '3': 0.11167461674784873, '4': 0.13412003331124522, '5': 0.14274332453760155, '6': 0.13462971766607995, '7': 0.11252500360356228, '8': 0.08334510707440496, '9': 0.054705898463765654, '10': 0.031820805875320775, '11': 0.016402542286615356, '12': 0.007492627308427081, '13': 0.0030330534831965517}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.7929, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.368, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3866}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 5 - 6 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 5 - 6 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0199, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.438, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3866, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 5 - 6 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 5 - 6 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match SF pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=36 matches SF BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match PIT pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=37 matches PIT BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.546 -> 0.539 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.545736, 'sample_size': 377, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5332, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.539468, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.569/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 6, PIT 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 5 - PIT 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-09-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 13, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-05-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260902', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54559, 'artifact': '20260902_SF@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544522, 'artifact': '20260901_SF@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PIT', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PIT', 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 5 - 6 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 5 - 6 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0199, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.438, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3866, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_SF@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@PIT.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0346, 'away_run_delta': -0.0346, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020147338760299952}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019250620856780924}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.019002153255212584}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0189302144560362}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018730070592930716}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.029974937146815754, '1': 0.05178946762385955, '2': 0.07948284237396337, '3': 0.10835628567336764, '4': 0.13121503687548505, '5': 0.141143824592601, '6': 0.13486179419696723, '7': 0.11446290459340484, '8': 0.08629574226574059, '9': 0.05779133836783208, '10': 0.03437834084562707, '11': 0.018165855330130667, '12': 0.008526593653708083, '13': 0.0035550364604968808}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.031223009565874427, '1': 0.053882163508622564, '2': 0.08240209656743477, '3': 0.11167461674784873, '4': 0.13412003331124522, '5': 0.14274332453760155, '6': 0.13462971766607995, '7': 0.11252500360356228, '8': 0.08334510707440496, '9': 0.054705898463765654, '10': 0.031820805875320775, '11': 0.016402542286615356, '12': 0.007492627308427081, '13': 0.0030330534831965517}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.7929, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.368, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3866}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 5 - 6 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 5 - 6 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0199, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.438, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3866, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 5 - 6 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 5 - 6 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Lowe: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Rafael Flores Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Spencer Horwitz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Oneil Cruz: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 3B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Eldridge: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Rafael Devers: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Drew Gilbert: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Turner Hill: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Nate Furman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Koss: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Andrew Knizner: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.422238759121611	6.086484887635507		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	6	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	5	6
PIT	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	3	0	6	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SF	batting	38	8	2	0	1	5	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		11			2		6	1	12					8.0	6	0	0
current	PIT	batting	36	9	2	0	1	5	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		6			1		5	4	7					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	SF	batting	33	6	2	1	1	5	5	4	7	0	0
simulation	SF	pitching		11			2		6	1	12					8.0	6	36	168
simulation	PIT	batting	34	11	3	0	2	6	6	1	12	1	0
simulation	PIT	pitching		6			1		5	4	7					9.0	5	37	146

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	SF		1B	Bryce Eldridge	0	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	SF		DH	Rafael Devers	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	SF		RF	Drew Gilbert	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	SF		LF	Turner Hill	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SF		2B	Nate Furman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	SF		3B	Shay Whitcomb	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SF		SS	Christian Koss	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SF		C	Andrew Knizner	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SF		CF	Jonah Cox	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
current	PIT		RF	Bryan Reynolds	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	PIT		2B	Nick Gonzales	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		DH	Brandon Lowe	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		LF	Jake Mangum	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		3B	Jacob Gonzalez	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	PIT		C	Rafael Flores Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		1B	Spencer Horwitz	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.200
current	PIT		CF	Oneil Cruz	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	PIT		SS	Jared Triolo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	SF	1	RF	Drew Gilbert	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0.000
simulation	SF	2	DH	Rafael Devers	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	SF	3	1B	Bryce Eldridge	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	SF	4	CF	Jonah Cox	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	SF	5	LF	Turner Hill	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.250
simulation	SF	6	C	Andrew Knizner	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	SF	7	3B	Shay Whitcomb	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	SF	8	2B	Nate Furman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SF	9	SS	Christian Koss	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	1	1B	Spencer Horwitz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	PIT	2	DH	Brandon Lowe	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	PIT	3	RF	Bryan Reynolds	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	PIT	4	2B	Nick Gonzales	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.500
simulation	PIT	5	CF	Oneil Cruz	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	PIT	6	LF	Jake Mangum	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	7	C	Rafael Flores Jr.	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	0.333
simulation	PIT	8	3B	Jacob Gonzalez	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0.500
simulation	PIT	9	SS	Jared Triolo	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SF	1	Blade Tidwell	Starter	5.0	5	2	2	0	8	0	0	0	3.60	4.54	1.22
current	SF	2	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	6.75	3.75	1.42
current	SF	3	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.13	1.33
current	SF	4	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	3	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	81.00	4.50	1.50
current	PIT	1	Lake Bachar	Starter	5.0	1	1	1	1	5	0	0	0	1.80	3.11	1.01
current	PIT	2	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.72	1.02
current	PIT	3	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.58	0.96
current	PIT	4	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.2	4	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	21.60	2.70	1.04
simulation	SF	1	Blade Tidwell	Starter	5.0	5	2	2	0	8	0	20	90	3.60	4.54	1.22
simulation	SF	2	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	5	26	0.00	3.13	1.33
simulation	SF	3	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	1	6	35	6.75	3.75	1.42
simulation	SF	4	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	3	3	3	1	1	1	5	17	81.00	4.50	1.50
simulation	PIT	1	Lake Bachar	Starter	5.0	1	1	1	1	5	0	17	70	1.80	3.11	1.01
simulation	PIT	2	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.2	4	4	4	3	1	1	12	43	21.60	2.70	1.04
simulation	PIT	3	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.58	0.96
simulation	PIT	4	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	2.72	1.02

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SF	Blade Tidwell	Starter	5.0	2	5	0	8	20	90
SF	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.1	1	2	0	1	6	35
SF	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.1	0	1	0	2	5	26
SF	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	3	3	1	1	5	17
PIT	Lake Bachar	Starter	5.0	1	1	1	5	17	70
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
PIT	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.2	4	4	3	1	12	43

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260903_STL@LAD

20260903_STL@LAD.json • 2026-09-03

STL 4 - LAD 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Will Smith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Freddie Freeman: HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Enrique Hernández: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Alex Call: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Fermín: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Joshua Baez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=2 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jordan Walker: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Iván Herrera: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ramón Urías: H current=0 box=1; Nathan Church: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=42 matches STL BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match LAD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=40 matches LAD BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.646 -> 0.602 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.645781, 'sample_size': 304, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5592, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.60249, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.527/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 7, LAD 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 4 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick evidence cleared the reversal bar after a blowout miss and an opponent breakout; this guardrail caps confidence and shifts runs toward the opponent, it has no authority to change the winner'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-09-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 13, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-05-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260902', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260902_STL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260901_STL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0015, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.062, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8594, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_STL@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0577, 'away_run_delta': 0.0577, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022520811635456578}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021435678204623814}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02131522374916494}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02100270761274743}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020543646419573493}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03034411557066788, '1': 0.05240895257120917, '2': 0.080349081269395, '3': 0.10934546840910424, '4': 0.13208852854870085, '5': 0.14163606547778745, '6': 0.13481153214615607, '7': 0.11390024911762012, '8': 0.08542141126609729, '9': 0.056866074457768576, '10': 0.03360347533911043, '11': 0.0176262359794289, '12': 0.00820690495444402, '13': 0.0033919048925101884}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.045601619473145553, '1': 0.07767633369974655, '2': 0.11423429943932112, '3': 0.14504530572967178, '4': 0.1590047814409846, '5': 0.15049291066693582, '6': 0.12297625148618506, '7': 0.08676125215396897, '8': 0.052848141939747274, '9': 0.0277928437369217, '10': 0.012619309727989554, '11': 0.0049469505053820065}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.2424, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.148, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.8594}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0015, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.062, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8594, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 184.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 184.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=42 matches STL BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match LAD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=40 matches LAD BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.646 -> 0.602 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.645781, 'sample_size': 304, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5592, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.60249, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.527/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 7, LAD 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 4 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick evidence cleared the reversal bar after a blowout miss and an opponent breakout; this guardrail caps confidence and shifts runs toward the opponent, it has no authority to change the winner'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-09-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 13, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-05-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260902', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260902_STL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260901_STL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0015, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.062, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8594, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_STL@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0577, 'away_run_delta': 0.0577, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022520811635456578}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021435678204623814}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02131522374916494}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02100270761274743}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020543646419573493}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03034411557066788, '1': 0.05240895257120917, '2': 0.080349081269395, '3': 0.10934546840910424, '4': 0.13208852854870085, '5': 0.14163606547778745, '6': 0.13481153214615607, '7': 0.11390024911762012, '8': 0.08542141126609729, '9': 0.056866074457768576, '10': 0.03360347533911043, '11': 0.0176262359794289, '12': 0.00820690495444402, '13': 0.0033919048925101884}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.045601619473145553, '1': 0.07767633369974655, '2': 0.11423429943932112, '3': 0.14504530572967178, '4': 0.1590047814409846, '5': 0.15049291066693582, '6': 0.12297625148618506, '7': 0.08676125215396897, '8': 0.052848141939747274, '9': 0.0277928437369217, '10': 0.012619309727989554, '11': 0.0049469505053820065}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.2424, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.148, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.8594}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0015, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.062, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8594, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 184.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 184.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Will Smith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Freddie Freeman: HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Enrique Hernández: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Alex Call: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Fermín: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Joshua Baez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=2 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jordan Walker: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Iván Herrera: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ramón Urías: H current=0 box=1; Nathan Church: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.768648524906557	5.502578875957481		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	4	7
LAD	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	STL	batting	33	7	1	0	1	5	5	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		8			0		5	4	9					8.0	5	0	0
current	LAD	batting	33	8	2	0	1	5	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		7			2		4	3	11					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	STL	batting	37	7	2	0	2	4	4	3	11	0	0
simulation	STL	pitching		8			0		5	4	9					10.0	5	42	176
simulation	LAD	batting	37	8	2	0	0	5	5	4	9	1	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		7			2		4	3	11					10.0	4	40	184

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	STL		2B	José Fermín	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	STL		LF	Joshua Baez	0	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	STL		1B	Leonardo Bernal	0	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
current	STL		SS	Thomas Saggese	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	STL		DH	Iván Herrera	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.200
current	STL		3B	Ramón Urías	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	STL		CF	Nathan Church	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		C	Pedro Pagés	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	LAD		CF	Tommy Edman	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		C	Will Smith	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.000
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.200
current	LAD		3B	Enrique Hernández	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		DH	Alex Call	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		2B	Miguel Rojas	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
simulation	STL	1	2B	José Fermín	5	4	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	STL	2	DH	Iván Herrera	5	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	3	0.200
simulation	STL	3	RF	Jordan Walker	5	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.200
simulation	STL	4	LF	Joshua Baez	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	STL	5	1B	Leonardo Bernal	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	STL	6	3B	Ramón Urías	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	STL	7	SS	Thomas Saggese	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	STL	8	CF	Nathan Church	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	STL	9	C	Pedro Pagés	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	LAD	1	CF	Tommy Edman	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	2	SS	Mookie Betts	5	5	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.400
simulation	LAD	3	LF	Teoscar Hernández	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.200
simulation	LAD	4	1B	Freddie Freeman	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	5	C	Will Smith	5	4	1	1	0	1	2	1	3	0.250
simulation	LAD	6	2B	Miguel Rojas	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	LAD	7	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	8	DH	Alex Call	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	LAD	9	3B	Enrique Hernández	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	STL	1	Quinn Mathews	Starter	4.2	6	3	3	1	3	0	0	0	5.79	5.03	1.58
current	STL	2	Justin Bruihl	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	3.46	1.36
current	STL	3	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.88	1.20
current	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.14	1.36
current	STL	5	George Soriano	Setup Man	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		4.35	1.30
current	STL	7	Cade Winquest	Reliever	0.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0
current	LAD	1	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.0	3	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0.00	2.84	0.94
current	LAD	2	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	4	4	4	3	1	2	0	0	21.60	2.70	1.00
current	LAD	3	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.77	0.98
current	LAD	4	Tanner Scott	Closer	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.57	0.95
simulation	STL	1	Quinn Mathews	Starter	4.2	6	3	3	1	3	0	21	91	5.79	5.03	1.58
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	2	2	0	7	29	0.00	3.88	1.20
simulation	STL	3	George Soriano	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.00	4.35	1.30
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	0	5	21	0.00	4.14	1.36
simulation	STL	5	Justin Bruihl	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4	16	9.00	3.46	1.36
simulation	STL	6	Cade Winquest	Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	0	3	11	13.50	3.00	1.33
simulation	LAD	1	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.0	3	0	0	0	7	0	21	97	0.00	2.84	0.94
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.57	0.95
simulation	LAD	3	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	2.77	0.98
simulation	LAD	4	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	4	4	4	3	1	2	12	57	21.60	2.70	1.00

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
STL	Quinn Mathews	Starter	4.2	3	6	1	3	21	91
STL	Justin Bruihl	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
STL	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.2	0	0	2	2	7	29
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	1	2	5	21
STL	George Soriano	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8
STL	Cade Winquest	Reliever	0.2	1	1	0	2	3	11
LAD	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.0	0	3	0	7	21	97
LAD	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	4	4	3	1	12	57
LAD	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
LAD	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260903_TB@TEX

20260903_TB@TEX.json • 2026-09-03

TB 5 - TEX 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yandy Díaz: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=3 box=4; Jorge Mateo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Cedric Mullins: H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cody Freeman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Logan O'Hoppe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match TEX pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=36 matches TEX BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match TB pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=37 matches TB BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.460 -> 0.497 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.4601, 'sample_size': 377, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5332, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.49665, 'published_confidence': 0.533686, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.466.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.695/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 8, TEX 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 5 - TEX 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.56, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260730', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260730_TEX@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260728', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.59681, 'artifact': '20260728_TEX@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0494, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.3767, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.654, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_TB@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@TEX.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.333, 'home_run_delta': -0.0068, 'away_run_delta': 0.0068, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.027223704233712495}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025959738140226625}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025590422399952552}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.024790857482007805}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02440228775252032}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05267804640418735, '1': 0.0891634249415973, '2': 0.12865907761276, '3': 0.1582671326994166, '4': 0.16597307674109812, '5': 0.1483819809895756, '6': 0.11308924235272046, '7': 0.07347811961470686, '8': 0.04069971635035749, '9': 0.01921858199109978, '10': 0.007736560192715393, '11': 0.002655040109765078}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.050382292503534466, '1': 0.08545234508303325, '2': 0.12406366706609721, '3': 0.15418417795478434, '4': 0.16402482118337078, '5': 0.14936674049056242, '6': 0.11643211921701621, '7': 0.07769020514464703, '8': 0.04437458472034893, '9': 0.021695861650222827, '10': 0.00908017192123729, '11': 0.0032530130651455503}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8662, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.26, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.654}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0494, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.3767, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.654, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 123.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 123.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 5 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 5 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.534.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match TEX pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=36 matches TEX BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match TB pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=37 matches TB BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.460 -> 0.497 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.4601, 'sample_size': 377, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5332, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.49665, 'published_confidence': 0.533686, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.466.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.695/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 8, TEX 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 5 - TEX 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.56, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260730', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260730_TEX@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260728', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.59681, 'artifact': '20260728_TEX@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0494, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.3767, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.654, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_TB@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@TEX.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.333, 'home_run_delta': -0.0068, 'away_run_delta': 0.0068, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.027223704233712495}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025959738140226625}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025590422399952552}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.024790857482007805}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02440228775252032}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05267804640418735, '1': 0.0891634249415973, '2': 0.12865907761276, '3': 0.1582671326994166, '4': 0.16597307674109812, '5': 0.1483819809895756, '6': 0.11308924235272046, '7': 0.07347811961470686, '8': 0.04069971635035749, '9': 0.01921858199109978, '10': 0.007736560192715393, '11': 0.002655040109765078}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.050382292503534466, '1': 0.08545234508303325, '2': 0.12406366706609721, '3': 0.15418417795478434, '4': 0.16402482118337078, '5': 0.14936674049056242, '6': 0.11643211921701621, '7': 0.07769020514464703, '8': 0.04437458472034893, '9': 0.021695861650222827, '10': 0.00908017192123729, '11': 0.0032530130651455503}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8662, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.26, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.654}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0494, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.3767, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.654, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 123.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 123.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 5 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 5 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.534.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yandy Díaz: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=3 box=4; Jorge Mateo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Cedric Mullins: H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cody Freeman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Logan O'Hoppe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.563554110482263	3.633578830683273		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.534	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	1	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	5	8
TEX	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TB	batting	32	8	1	0	1	4	5	3	6	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		8			1		4	2	8					9.0	4	0	0
current	TEX	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		8			1		5	1	4					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	TB	batting	35	8	2	0	1	5	5	1	4	0	0
simulation	TB	pitching		8			1		4	2	8					9.0	4	37	148
simulation	TEX	batting	35	8	1	0	1	4	4	2	8	0	0
simulation	TEX	pitching		8			1		5	1	4					9.0	5	36	123

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	TB		DH	Yandy Díaz	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	TB		LF	Chandler Simpson	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	TB		1B	Jonathan Aranda	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	TB		RF	Jonny DeLuca	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	TB		SS	Jorge Mateo	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	TB		2B	Richie Palacios	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	TB		CF	Cedric Mullins	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	TB		C	Nick Fortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TEX		CF	Ezequiel Duran	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	TEX		SS	Corey Seager	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	TEX		LF	Wyatt Langford	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	TEX		RF	Brandon Nimmo	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	TEX		2B	Justin Foscue	0	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	TEX		3B	Cody Freeman	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TEX		DH	Logan O'Hoppe	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	TEX		C	Elias Díaz	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	TB	1	DH	Yandy Díaz	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	TB	2	LF	Chandler Simpson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TB	3	3B	Junior Caminero	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TB	4	1B	Jonathan Aranda	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TB	5	RF	Jonny DeLuca	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TB	6	CF	Cedric Mullins	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	TB	7	SS	Jorge Mateo	4	4	3	1	1	1	3	0	0	0.750
simulation	TB	8	2B	Richie Palacios	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	TB	9	C	Nick Fortes	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	1	CF	Ezequiel Duran	5	5	2	0	0	1	2	0	3	0.400
simulation	TEX	2	SS	Corey Seager	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	TEX	3	LF	Wyatt Langford	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	TEX	4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TEX	5	2B	Justin Foscue	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TEX	6	1B	Jake Burger	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	TEX	7	DH	Logan O'Hoppe	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	8	3B	Cody Freeman	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	9	C	Elias Díaz	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TB	1	Shane McClanahan	Starter	5.1	3	2	2	1	5	0	0	0	3.38	3.19	1.11
current	TB	2	Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.55	0.94
current	TB	3	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.47	0.87
current	TB	4	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	18.00	1.95	0.84
current	TEX	1	Cal Quantrill	Starter	5.2	3	3	3	1	4	1	0	0	4.76	3.01	1.10
current	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.1	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.75	1.19	0.68
current	TEX	3	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.72	1.12
current	TEX	4	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	2.92	1.43
simulation	TB	1	Shane McClanahan	Starter	5.1	3	2	2	1	5	0	20	82	3.38	3.19	1.11
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	20	0.00	1.47	0.87
simulation	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	1	5	19	18.00	1.95	0.84
simulation	TB	4	Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	0	0	1	2	0	7	27	0.00	2.55	0.94
simulation	TEX	1	Cal Quantrill	Starter	5.2	3	3	3	1	4	1	21	84	4.76	3.01	1.10
simulation	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.1	3	1	1	0	0	0	7	7	6.75	1.19	0.68
simulation	TEX	3	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.72	1.12
simulation	TEX	4	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	5	19	9.00	2.92	1.43

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TB	Shane McClanahan	Starter	5.1	2	3	1	5	20	82
TB	Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	2	1	2	7	27
TB	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.1	0	1	0	0	5	20
TB	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	0	1	5	19
TEX	Cal Quantrill	Starter	5.2	3	3	1	4	21	84
TEX	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.1	1	3	0	0	7	7
TEX	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
TEX	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260903_TOR@CLE

20260903_TOR@CLE.json • 2026-09-03

TOR 4 - CLE 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 99INFO 9

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=11).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=40; H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=6, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Angel Genao: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Chase DeLauter: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Hedges: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=4, sim=5).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=43; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jesús Sánchez: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0; Sean Keys: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Smith: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nathan Lukes: AB current=5 box=6, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Brett Bateman: AB current=5 box=6, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Andrés Giménez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Ernie Clement: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match TOR pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match TOR pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=45 matches TOR BF=45.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match CLE pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match CLE pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=48 matches CLE BF=48.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.556 -> 0.546 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.555548, 'sample_size': 515, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5359, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.545724, 'published_confidence': 0.546553, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.453.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.569/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 11 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 11, CLE 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 4 - CLE 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TOR; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'opponent_team': 'CLE', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 11, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-09-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-04-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'TOR'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260902', 'away': 'TOR', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 11, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.583822, 'artifact': '20260902_TOR@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'TOR', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.555236, 'artifact': '20260901_TOR@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TOR', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'output_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TOR', 'final_score_winner': 'TOR', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 3 CLE', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 3 CLE', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0401, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.034, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2137, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_TOR@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0462, 'away_run_delta': 0.0462, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03154072689494335}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03088119834417032}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02916048667080535}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028550729845038734}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.028054972973027975}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07311135961949385, '1': 0.12154140447731583, '2': 0.16615938163492014, '3': 0.18680423189921336, '4': 0.17270693641560816, '5': 0.13130887390366466, '6': 0.0820993275261603, '7': 0.04221301279181738, '8': 0.017849017915035174, '9': 0.00620645381677103}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.056923641758514804, '1': 0.09598674816329716, '2': 0.13694605667031506, '3': 0.16531316250282638, '4': 0.16884374927844537, '5': 0.14590903692781934, '6': 0.10668393959429673, '7': 0.06599872551796739, '8': 0.03454551756540028, '9': 0.015299157258534729, '10': 0.005732749486292766, '11': 0.0018175152762900596}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2728, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.104, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2137}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 3 CLE', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 3 CLE', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0401, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.034, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2137, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 206.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 195.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 195.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 206.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 4 - 3 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 4 - 3 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TOR, simulation=TOR, published=TOR.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.547.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TOR wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match TOR pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match TOR pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=45 matches TOR BF=45.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match CLE pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match CLE pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=48 matches CLE BF=48.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.556 -> 0.546 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.555548, 'sample_size': 515, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5359, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.545724, 'published_confidence': 0.546553, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.453.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.569/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 11 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 11, CLE 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 4 - CLE 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TOR; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'opponent_team': 'CLE', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 11, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-09-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-04-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'TOR'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260902', 'away': 'TOR', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 11, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.583822, 'artifact': '20260902_TOR@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260901', 'away': 'TOR', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.555236, 'artifact': '20260901_TOR@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TOR', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'output_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TOR', 'final_score_winner': 'TOR', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 3 CLE', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 3 CLE', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0401, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.034, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2137, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260903_TOR@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0462, 'away_run_delta': 0.0462, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03154072689494335}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03088119834417032}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02916048667080535}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028550729845038734}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.028054972973027975}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07311135961949385, '1': 0.12154140447731583, '2': 0.16615938163492014, '3': 0.18680423189921336, '4': 0.17270693641560816, '5': 0.13130887390366466, '6': 0.0820993275261603, '7': 0.04221301279181738, '8': 0.017849017915035174, '9': 0.00620645381677103}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.056923641758514804, '1': 0.09598674816329716, '2': 0.13694605667031506, '3': 0.16531316250282638, '4': 0.16884374927844537, '5': 0.14590903692781934, '6': 0.10668393959429673, '7': 0.06599872551796739, '8': 0.03454551756540028, '9': 0.015299157258534729, '10': 0.005732749486292766, '11': 0.0018175152762900596}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2728, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.104, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2137}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 3 CLE', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 3 CLE', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0401, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.034, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2137, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 206.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 195.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 195.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 206.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 4 - 3 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 4 - 3 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TOR, simulation=TOR, published=TOR.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.547.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TOR wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=11).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=40; H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=6, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Angel Genao: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Chase DeLauter: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Hedges: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=4, sim=5).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=43; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jesús Sánchez: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0; Sean Keys: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Smith: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nathan Lukes: AB current=5 box=6, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Brett Bateman: AB current=5 box=6, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Andrés Giménez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Ernie Clement: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.504249914703886	3.6139526848856045		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.547	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R	H
TOR	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	11
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	3	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TOR	batting	33	8	1	0	1	4	4	2	7	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		7			0		3	4	12					9.0	3	0	0
current	CLE	batting	35	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	6	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		10			0		4	2	9					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	TOR	batting	43	11	2	0	0	4	4	2	9	1	2
simulation	TOR	pitching		7			0		3	5	12					11.0	3	45	206
simulation	CLE	batting	40	7	2	1	0	3	3	5	12	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		11			0		4	2	9					11.0	4	48	195

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TOR		LF	Jesús Sánchez	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		DH	Sean Keys	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		3B	Josh Smith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		RF	Nathan Lukes	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	TOR		1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		CF	Brett Bateman	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	TOR		SS	Andrés Giménez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		2B	Ernie Clement	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		C	Brandon Valenzuela	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CLE		DH	José Ramírez	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	CLE		CF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	CLE		LF	Jo Adell	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		3B	Angel Genao	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CLE		RF	Chase DeLauter	0	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	CLE		1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		C	Austin Hedges	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	1	CF	Brett Bateman	6	6	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	TOR	2	RF	Nathan Lukes	6	6	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	6	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	TOR	4	LF	Jesús Sánchez	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	TOR	5	DH	Sean Keys	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	6	3B	Josh Smith	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	7	SS	Andrés Giménez	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	TOR	8	2B	Ernie Clement	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	TOR	9	C	Brandon Valenzuela	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.250
simulation	CLE	1	CF	Steven Kwan	5	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.800
simulation	CLE	2	RF	Chase DeLauter	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	3	DH	José Ramírez	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	3	0	0.200
simulation	CLE	4	LF	Jo Adell	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	5	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	6	3B	Angel Genao	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	7	2B	Travis Bazzana	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	8	C	Austin Hedges	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	CLE	9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TOR	1	José Soriano	Starter	6.0	3	0	0	2	10	0	0	0.00	3.45	1.28
current	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.18	0.98
current	TOR	3	Michael Lorenzen	Setup Man	1.0	4	3	3	2	1	0	0	27.00	7.13	1.88
current	TOR	4	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	1.90	1.20
current	TOR	6	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		2.88	1.09
current	CLE	1	Tanner Bibee	Starter	6.0	7	3	3	1	9	0	0	4.50	3.88	1.16
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.36	1.08
current	CLE	3	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.75	1.14
current	CLE	4	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.85	1.20
current	CLE	5	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		2.06	0.92
simulation	TOR	1	José Soriano	Starter	6.0	3	0	0	2	10	23	105	0.00	3.45	1.28
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	4	18	0.00	1.18	0.98
simulation	TOR	3	Michael Lorenzen	Setup Man	1.0	4	3	3	2	1	9	33	27.00	7.13	1.88
simulation	TOR	4	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	13	0.00	1.90	1.20
simulation	TOR	5	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	6	37	0.00	2.88	1.09
simulation	CLE	1	Tanner Bibee	Starter	6.0	7	2	2	1	9	28	113	3.00	3.88	1.16
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.36	1.08
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	5	23	0.00	2.85	1.20
simulation	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.75	1.14
simulation	CLE	5	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	3	2	2	0	0	7	26	13.50	2.06	0.92

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TOR	José Soriano	Starter	6.0	0	3	2	10	23	105
TOR	Louis Varland	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	18
TOR	Michael Lorenzen	Setup Man	1.0	3	4	2	1	9	33
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
TOR	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	1	0	6	37
CLE	Tanner Bibee	Starter	6.0	2	7	1	9	28	113
CLE	Cade Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
CLE	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	23
CLE	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	3	0	0	7	26

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.