MLB JSON Audit Report

20260901_NYY@LAA

20260901_NYY@LAA.json • 2026-09-01

NYY 6 - LAA 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=7, sim=11; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Moore: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Oswald Peraza: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=13).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Trent Grisham: AB current=4 box=2, BB current=1 box=2; Luis García Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan McMahon: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match NYY pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=44 matches NYY BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match LAA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=40 matches LAA BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.583 -> 0.560 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.583135, 'sample_size': 478, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5377, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.560417, 'published_confidence': 0.54, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.547/0.731.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 6, LAA 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 6 - LAA 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.54, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': -15, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -9, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-04-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-04-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'NYY'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260831', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.550872, 'artifact': '20260831_NYY@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0343, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.49, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2252, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-01.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260901_NYY@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@LAA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 20.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 20.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.1154, 'away_run_delta': -0.1154, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025217161301521428}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02459364430907633}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023626899130469187}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023060348349182722}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02304270280041894}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.049859578885098274, '1': 0.08460528289125067, '2': 0.1230060735098216, '3': 0.1532271863877888, '4': 0.16354049059007547, '5': 0.14955294281977113, '6': 0.11717766190612068, '7': 0.07866379434456688, '8': 0.04524651675357213, '9': 0.02229849794842803, '10': 0.009415562391720748, '11': 0.003406411571785577}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04192690782806928, '1': 0.07165525494872209, '2': 0.10643785829558673, '3': 0.1374159291714286, '4': 0.15419521618490084, '5': 0.1503826007879715, '6': 0.12747269056532406, '7': 0.09391383674344635, '8': 0.06013604806185587, '9': 0.03346825389942364, '10': 0.01618915180807428, '11': 0.006806251705196752}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.5833, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.56, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.2252}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0343, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.49, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2252, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 187.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 195.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 195.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 187.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 6 - 4 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 6 - 4 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match NYY pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=44 matches NYY BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match LAA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=40 matches LAA BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.583 -> 0.560 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.583135, 'sample_size': 478, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5377, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.560417, 'published_confidence': 0.54, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.547/0.731.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 6, LAA 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 6 - LAA 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.54, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': -15, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -9, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-04-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-04-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'NYY'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260831', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.550872, 'artifact': '20260831_NYY@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0343, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.49, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2252, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-01.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260901_NYY@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@LAA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 20.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 20.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.1154, 'away_run_delta': -0.1154, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025217161301521428}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02459364430907633}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023626899130469187}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023060348349182722}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02304270280041894}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.049859578885098274, '1': 0.08460528289125067, '2': 0.1230060735098216, '3': 0.1532271863877888, '4': 0.16354049059007547, '5': 0.14955294281977113, '6': 0.11717766190612068, '7': 0.07866379434456688, '8': 0.04524651675357213, '9': 0.02229849794842803, '10': 0.009415562391720748, '11': 0.003406411571785577}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04192690782806928, '1': 0.07165525494872209, '2': 0.10643785829558673, '3': 0.1374159291714286, '4': 0.15419521618490084, '5': 0.1503826007879715, '6': 0.12747269056532406, '7': 0.09391383674344635, '8': 0.06013604806185587, '9': 0.03346825389942364, '10': 0.01618915180807428, '11': 0.006806251705196752}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.5833, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.56, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.2252}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0343, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.49, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2252, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 187.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 195.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 195.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 187.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 6 - 4 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 6 - 4 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=7, sim=11; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Moore: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Oswald Peraza: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=13).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Trent Grisham: AB current=4 box=2, BB current=1 box=2; Luis García Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan McMahon: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.301503398733531	2.9775424557496057		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	3		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.540	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	2	6	6
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	4	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYY	batting	32	8	1	0	1	5	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		11			1		4	6	6					9.0	4	0	0
current	LAA	batting	32	7	1	0	1	4	3	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		6			1		6	7	13					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	NYY	batting	33	6	2	0	1	6	6	7	13	0	0
simulation	NYY	pitching		11			1		4	6	6					9.0	4	44	187
simulation	LAA	batting	38	11	1	0	1	4	4	6	6	0	0
simulation	LAA	pitching		6			1		6	7	13					9.0	6	40	195

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	NYY		RF	Spencer Jones	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		DH	Ben Rice	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	NYY		CF	Trent Grisham	0	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.000
current	NYY		1B	Luis García Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		LF	Cody Bellinger	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		3B	Ryan McMahon	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		SS	José Caballero	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		C	Austin Wells	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	LAA		LF	Wade Meckler	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	LAA		1B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		DH	Moisés Ballesteros	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		RF	Josh Lowe	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	LAA		2B	Christian Moore	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		3B	Oswald Peraza	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAA		CF	Mike Trout	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAA		C	Tyler Heineman	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	1	DH	Ben Rice	5	5	2	0	1	1	3	0	3	0.400
simulation	NYY	2	LF	Cody Bellinger	5	3	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	3	1B	Luis García Jr.	5	5	1	0	0	1	2	0	2	0.200
simulation	NYY	4	RF	Spencer Jones	5	5	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	NYY	5	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	NYY	6	CF	Trent Grisham	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	7	3B	Ryan McMahon	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	NYY	8	SS	José Caballero	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	NYY	9	C	Austin Wells	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	LAA	1	SS	Zach Neto	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	LAA	2	CF	Mike Trout	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0.333
simulation	LAA	3	LF	Wade Meckler	5	4	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	5	DH	Moisés Ballesteros	5	5	3	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.600
simulation	LAA	6	2B	Christian Moore	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	7	RF	Josh Lowe	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.400
simulation	LAA	8	3B	Oswald Peraza	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	LAA	9	C	Tyler Heineman	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYY	1	Gerrit Cole	Starter	6.0	9	1	1	0	6	1	0	0	1.50	3.19	1.07
current	NYY	2	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.97	1.21
current	NYY	3	David Bednar	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	9.00	2.73	1.03
current	NYY	4	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	2	4	0	0	0	0	18.00	1.64	1.03
current	LAA	1	Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	3	8	0	0	0	5.40	6.03	1.52
current	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	9.00	3.24	0.96
current	LAA	3	José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.28	1.31
current	LAA	4	Ryan Watson	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.38	1.32
current	LAA	5	Luke Murphy	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	18.00	1.46	1.05
simulation	NYY	1	Gerrit Cole	Starter	6.0	9	1	1	0	6	1	27	115	1.50	3.19	1.07
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	0	6	24	9.00	2.73	1.03
simulation	NYY	3	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	1.97	1.21
simulation	NYY	4	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	2	4	0	0	8	32	18.00	1.64	1.03
simulation	LAA	1	Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	3	8	0	22	99	5.40	6.03	1.52
simulation	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	5	32	9.00	3.24	0.96
simulation	LAA	3	Ryan Watson	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	4.38	1.32
simulation	LAA	4	José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	27	0.00	3.28	1.31
simulation	LAA	5	Luke Murphy	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	2	2	1	1	6	24	18.00	1.46	1.05

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYY	Gerrit Cole	Starter	6.0	1	9	0	6	27	115
NYY	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
NYY	David Bednar	Closer	1.0	1	1	2	0	6	24
NYY	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	4	0	8	32
LAA	Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	5.0	3	4	3	8	22	99
LAA	Ben Joyce	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	1	5	32
LAA	José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	27
LAA	Ryan Watson	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
LAA	Luke Murphy	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	2	1	6	24

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260901_PHI@ARI

20260901_PHI@ARI.json • 2026-09-01

PHI 4 - ARI 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=12; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ketel Marte: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Gabriel Moreno: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ildemaro Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Ryan Waldschmidt: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nolan Arenado: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jordan Lawlar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=36; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=6, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Kyle Schwarber: BB current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match PHI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match PHI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=41 matches PHI BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match ARI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=39 matches ARI BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.610 -> 0.588 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.61, 'sample_size': 277, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5668, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5884, 'published_confidence': 0.560194, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.722/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 9, ARI 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 4 - ARI 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'ARI', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-04-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-04-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260831', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5269429999999999, 'artifact': '20260831_PHI@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ARI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'ARI', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ARI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ARI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0855, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.648, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3931, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-01.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260901_PHI@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@ARI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': -0.0, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02768891486168602}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02690734616804246}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02667468045270427}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0259217403227309}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02474496350475786}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06639192477448155, '1': 0.11102161439286562, '2': 0.15447806491672555, '3': 0.17885171402068673, '4': 0.17230044383291387, '5': 0.1381168577779269, '6': 0.09212425446224992, '7': 0.05112911631821361, '8': 0.02361182690695031, '9': 0.00907314598380667, '10': 0.0029010366131793676}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04236539179590195, '1': 0.0723757221317681, '2': 0.10737925947664011, '3': 0.1383546343978328, '4': 0.15481492594744384, '5': 0.15044500029186328, '6': 0.12696631102275352, '7': 0.09305614457062347, '8': 0.05923077577114307, '9': 0.032741275805793245, '10': 0.015717721434588633, '11': 0.006552837353647976}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2559, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.648, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.3931}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ARI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ARI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0855, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.648, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3931, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 174.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 174.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 4 - 3 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 4 - 3 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match PHI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match PHI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=41 matches PHI BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match ARI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=39 matches ARI BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.610 -> 0.588 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.61, 'sample_size': 277, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5668, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5884, 'published_confidence': 0.560194, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.722/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 9, ARI 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 4 - ARI 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'ARI', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-04-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-04-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260831', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5269429999999999, 'artifact': '20260831_PHI@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ARI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'ARI', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ARI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ARI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0855, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.648, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3931, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-01.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260901_PHI@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@ARI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': -0.0, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02768891486168602}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02690734616804246}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02667468045270427}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0259217403227309}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02474496350475786}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06639192477448155, '1': 0.11102161439286562, '2': 0.15447806491672555, '3': 0.17885171402068673, '4': 0.17230044383291387, '5': 0.1381168577779269, '6': 0.09212425446224992, '7': 0.05112911631821361, '8': 0.02361182690695031, '9': 0.00907314598380667, '10': 0.0029010366131793676}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04236539179590195, '1': 0.0723757221317681, '2': 0.10737925947664011, '3': 0.1383546343978328, '4': 0.15481492594744384, '5': 0.15044500029186328, '6': 0.12696631102275352, '7': 0.09305614457062347, '8': 0.05923077577114307, '9': 0.032741275805793245, '10': 0.015717721434588633, '11': 0.006552837353647976}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2559, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.648, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.3931}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ARI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 ARI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0855, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.648, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3931, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 174.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 174.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 4 - 3 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 4 - 3 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=12; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ketel Marte: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Gabriel Moreno: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ildemaro Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Ryan Waldschmidt: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nolan Arenado: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jordan Lawlar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=36; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=6, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Kyle Schwarber: BB current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.976429667891942	3.777059012654999		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	9
ARI	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	3	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	PHI	batting	37	9	2	0	1	6	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		8			0		3	5	12					9.0	3	0	0
current	ARI	batting	35	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		9			2		4	2	4					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	PHI	batting	36	9	3	0	2	4	4	2	4	0	1
simulation	PHI	pitching		8			0		3	5	12					9.0	3	41	174
simulation	ARI	batting	35	8	3	0	0	3	3	5	12	0	1
simulation	ARI	pitching		9			2		4	2	4					9.0	4	39	155

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	PHI		RF	Bryce Harper	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		1B	Alec Bohm	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	PHI		3B	Bryson Stott	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	PHI		LF	Edmundo Sosa	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		2B	Luis Arraez	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	PHI		C	J.T. Realmuto	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		CF	Derek Hill	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		DH	Ketel Marte	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		C	Gabriel Moreno	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	ARI		RF	Corbin Carroll	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	ARI		2B	Ildemaro Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		LF	Ryan Waldschmidt	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		3B	Nolan Arenado	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		CF	Jordan Lawlar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		1B	Tim Tawa	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	5	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	PHI	2	SS	Trea Turner	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	3	RF	Bryce Harper	5	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0.500
simulation	PHI	4	2B	Luis Arraez	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	PHI	5	1B	Alec Bohm	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	6	LF	Edmundo Sosa	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	7	3B	Bryson Stott	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	8	C	J.T. Realmuto	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	PHI	9	CF	Derek Hill	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	1	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	2	RF	Corbin Carroll	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	3	C	Gabriel Moreno	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	4	DH	Ketel Marte	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	5	3B	Nolan Arenado	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	6	2B	Ildemaro Vargas	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	ARI	7	1B	Tim Tawa	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	8	CF	Jordan Lawlar	4	4	2	2	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	ARI	9	LF	Ryan Waldschmidt	4	4	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.750

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	PHI	1	Jesús Luzardo	Starter	6.2	5	1	1	4	9	0	0	0	1.35	3.09	1.12
current	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.25	0.99
current	PHI	3	Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.90	1.01
current	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	2	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	54.00	3.86	1.29
current	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.0	5	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	1.50	2.50	1.19
current	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	1.74	0.68
current	ARI	3	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	18.00	2.80	1.11
current	ARI	4	Juan Morillo	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.54	0.98
simulation	PHI	1	Jesús Luzardo	Starter	6.2	5	1	1	4	9	0	30	127	1.35	3.09	1.12
simulation	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	20	0.00	1.25	0.99
simulation	PHI	3	Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.90	1.01
simulation	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	2	2	2	0	1	0	3	10	54.00	3.86	1.29
simulation	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.0	5	1	1	1	4	1	25	100	1.50	2.50	1.19
simulation	ARI	2	Juan Morillo	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.54	0.98
simulation	ARI	3	Brandyn Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	5	19	9.00	1.74	0.68
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	1	6	23	18.00	2.80	1.11

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
PHI	Jesús Luzardo	Starter	6.2	1	5	4	9	30	127
PHI	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	20
PHI	Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17
PHI	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	2	2	0	1	3	10
ARI	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.0	1	5	1	4	25	100
ARI	Brandyn Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	19
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	1	0	6	23
ARI	Juan Morillo	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260901_STL@LAD

20260901_STL@LAD.json • 2026-09-01

STL 5 - LAD 7

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 100INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Pitch count summary differs by pitcher Pitch-count rows disagree with individual pitching box-score rows. Recalculate pitch_count_summary from the same final pitcher ledger used by box_score.pitching.	0C / 0E / 1W	STL	STL pitch_count row for Michael McGreevy differs from pitching box score: batters_faced/BF: summary=24, box=23.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	pitch_count	simulation	STL	Michael McGreevy	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count row for Michael McGreevy differs from pitching box score: batters_faced/BF: summary=24, box=23.

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	pitch_count	simulation	STL	Michael McGreevy	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count row for Michael McGreevy differs from pitching box score: batters_faced/BF: summary=24, box=23.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD		CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL		CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD		CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=41; H: current=8, sim=12; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD		CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=5, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Tommy Edman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=5; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL		CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL		CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Fermín: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Joshua Baez: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=3 box=4; Ramón Urías: H current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Alec Burleson: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation				RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAD		BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL		BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD		BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL		BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD		BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL		BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD		BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL		BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD		BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD		BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD		BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match STL pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD		BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD		PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=45 matches STL BF=45.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD		RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL		BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL		BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL		BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match LAD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL		BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL		PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=39 matches LAD BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL		RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration				CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.755 -> 0.650 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.754809, 'sample_size': 198, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5455, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.650155, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD		CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL		CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD		CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD		CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD		CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD		CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL		CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL		CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL		CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL		CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage				H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction				CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction				CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction				CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction				CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction				LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction				LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction				LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.467/0.639.
PASS	final_decision				FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings				INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings				INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings				INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings				INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 7, LAD 12.
PASS	innings				INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 5 - LAD 7.
PASS	matchup_recency				GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency				MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-05-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 7 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 7 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0064, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.5433, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1307, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata				DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-01.
PASS	metadata				FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260901_STL@LAD.
PASS	metadata				FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap				OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0205, 'away_run_delta': 0.0205, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap				OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021262187165595556}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020226748171906637}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020201137422072378}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020012257076566675}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01933013860419212}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.021057391572666798, '1': 0.036699179821363934, '2': 0.0578088274517275, '3': 0.08230343846977002, '4': 0.10590776797286697, '5': 0.12317531111065871, '6': 0.12948084866418816, '7': 0.1230193487161205, '8': 0.10563974069077796, '9': 0.0819912006909776, '10': 0.05751659701467781, '11': 0.03646742819120519, '12': 0.020897922137586386, '13': 0.010823982808956785, '14': 0.005067072260712234, '15': 0.002143942425743533}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05058781839463154, '1': 0.08578518882461526, '2': 0.12447835485445108, '3': 0.15455766071219512, '4': 0.16421105812134099, '5': 0.1492895575184661, '6': 0.11613727447627727, '7': 0.07730881142089432, '8': 0.04403535790295446, '9': 0.02146294102824345, '10': 0.008951423443893856, '11': 0.0031945533020363752}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap				OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.3842, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.66, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.1307}
PASS	optimization_roadmap				OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 7 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 7 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0064, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.5433, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1307, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline				PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch				PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count				PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 191.
PASS	pitch_count				PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD		PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD		PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL		PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 191.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength				PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching				PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD		PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD		STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL		PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL		STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD		PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD		STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL		PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL		STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL		PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison				PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 5 - 7 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison				PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 5 - 7 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison				PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 7-5 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison				SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability				CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form				RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form				RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report				REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema				SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score				GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 7-5.
PASS	score				SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 5-7.
PASS	score				SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-7.
PASS	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score				TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-7, final 5-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score				TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 12.
PASS	score				WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 7-5 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema			CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD		RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD		TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL		RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL		TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match STL pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=45 matches STL BF=45.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match LAD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=39 matches LAD BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.755 -> 0.650 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.754809, 'sample_size': 198, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5455, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.650155, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.467/0.639.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 7, LAD 12.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 5 - LAD 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-05-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 7 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 7 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0064, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.5433, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1307, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-01.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260901_STL@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0205, 'away_run_delta': 0.0205, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021262187165595556}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020226748171906637}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020201137422072378}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020012257076566675}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01933013860419212}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.021057391572666798, '1': 0.036699179821363934, '2': 0.0578088274517275, '3': 0.08230343846977002, '4': 0.10590776797286697, '5': 0.12317531111065871, '6': 0.12948084866418816, '7': 0.1230193487161205, '8': 0.10563974069077796, '9': 0.0819912006909776, '10': 0.05751659701467781, '11': 0.03646742819120519, '12': 0.020897922137586386, '13': 0.010823982808956785, '14': 0.005067072260712234, '15': 0.002143942425743533}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05058781839463154, '1': 0.08578518882461526, '2': 0.12447835485445108, '3': 0.15455766071219512, '4': 0.16421105812134099, '5': 0.1492895575184661, '6': 0.11613727447627727, '7': 0.07730881142089432, '8': 0.04403535790295446, '9': 0.02146294102824345, '10': 0.008951423443893856, '11': 0.0031945533020363752}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.3842, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.66, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.1307}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 7 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 7 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0064, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.5433, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1307, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 191.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 191.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 5 - 7 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 5 - 7 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 7-5 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 5-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-7, final 5-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 12.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 7-5 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=41; H: current=8, sim=12; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=5, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Tommy Edman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=5; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Fermín: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Joshua Baez: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=3 box=4; Ramón Urías: H current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Alec Burleson: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.210663511484838	4.416198534782558		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	6	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	7		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	7		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	7		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	7		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
STL	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	7
LAD	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	4	7	12

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	STL	batting	32	7	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		12			1		7	4	11					8.0	7	0	0
current	LAD	batting	35	8	1	0	1	4	5	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		7			1		5	2	9					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	STL	batting	37	7	1	0	1	5	5	2	9	0	0
simulation	STL	pitching		12			1		7	4	11					9.2	7	45	191
simulation	LAD	batting	41	12	2	0	1	7	7	4	11	0	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		7			1		5	2	9					10.0	5	39	169

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	STL		2B	José Fermín	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	STL		LF	Joshua Baez	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
current	STL		C	Leonardo Bernal	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	STL		3B	Ramón Urías	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
current	STL		SS	Thomas Saggese	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	STL		1B	Alec Burleson	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	STL		DH	Iván Herrera	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	STL		CF	Nathan Church	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		C	Will Smith	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		CF	Tommy Edman	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.200
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		2B	Alex Freeland	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	STL	1	2B	José Fermín	5	5	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0.200
simulation	STL	2	DH	Iván Herrera	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	STL	3	RF	Jordan Walker	5	5	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	STL	4	1B	Alec Burleson	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	STL	5	LF	Joshua Baez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	STL	6	C	Leonardo Bernal	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	STL	7	3B	Ramón Urías	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	STL	8	SS	Thomas Saggese	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	STL	9	CF	Nathan Church	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	LAD	2	1B	Freddie Freeman	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	LAD	3	SS	Mookie Betts	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	4	3B	Max Muncy	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.200
simulation	LAD	5	C	Will Smith	5	3	2	0	0	1	0	2	1	0.667
simulation	LAD	6	RF	Kyle Tucker	5	4	3	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.750
simulation	LAD	7	CF	Tommy Edman	5	5	2	0	1	1	5	0	1	0.400
simulation	LAD	8	LF	Teoscar Hernández	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	LAD	9	2B	Alex Freeland	5	5	2	1	0	1	2	0	2	0.400

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	STL	1	Michael McGreevy	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	1	7	1	0	0	4.76	3.86	1.25
current	STL	2	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.12	1.27
current	STL	3	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.95	1.23
current	STL	6	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0		4.22	1.35
current	STL	7	Brycen Mautz	Reliever	0.0	4	4	4	2	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	1	Eric Lauer	Starter	5.1	6	5	5	2	2	1	0	0	8.44	4.78	1.26
current	LAD	2	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.89	0.89
current	LAD	3	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.77	0.98
current	LAD	4	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.45	0.95
current	LAD	5	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0		3.02	1.20
simulation	STL	1	Michael McGreevy	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	1	7	1	23	105	4.76	3.86	1.25
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	5	20	0.00	3.95	1.23
simulation	STL	3	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	6	25	0.00	4.12	1.27
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	4.22	1.35
simulation	STL	5	Brycen Mautz	Reliever	0.1	4	4	4	2	0	0	8	28	108.00	9.00	2.00
simulation	LAD	1	Eric Lauer	Starter	5.1	6	5	5	2	2	1	24	105	8.44	4.78	1.26
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.45	0.95
simulation	LAD	3	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.77	0.98
simulation	LAD	4	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	18	0.00	1.89	0.89
simulation	LAD	5	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	4	16	0.00	3.02	1.20

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
STL	Michael McGreevy	Starter	5.2	3	6	1	7	24	105
STL	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.1	0	1	1	1	6	25
STL	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.1	0	1	0	2	5	20
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
STL	Brycen Mautz	Reliever	0.1	4	4	2	0	8	28
LAD	Eric Lauer	Starter	5.1	5	6	2	2	24	105
LAD	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	18
LAD	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
LAD	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
LAD	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	3	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	0	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	0	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	0	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	0	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	0	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	warning	1	1	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.