MLB JSON Audit Report

Generated 2026-08-27 22:37:38. This single HTML file audits only the selected game date. The default view focuses on actionable problems first; detailed checks, passed checks, batting, pitching, pitch counts, and the rule catalog stay available in collapsible sections.

0Critical
0Error
0Warn
100Pass
8Info

20260827_ARI@SF

20260827_ARI@SF.json • 2026-08-27

ARI 3 - SF 4
PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentARICURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentSFCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONSF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaARICURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXARI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (HR: current=0, sim=1).New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaARICURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=5).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaARICURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: AB current=3 box=5, BB current=1 box=0; Max Kepler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Corbin Carroll: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jose Fernandez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ildemaro Vargas: AB current=4 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSFCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=34; 2B: current=2, sim=3; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=11, sim=6).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSFCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXSF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drew Gilbert: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Turner Hill: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Rafael Devers: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Christian Koss: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Drew Cavanaugh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentARIBATTING_REALISMcurrent:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentSFBATTING_REALISMcurrent:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationARIBATTING_REALISMsimulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationSFBATTING_REALISMsimulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentARIBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentSFBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationARIBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationSFBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationARIBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:ARI batting walks match SF pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationARIBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:ARI batting home runs match SF pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationARIBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:ARI batting hits match SF pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationARIBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:ARI batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationARIPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:ARI PA=38 matches SF BF=38.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationARIRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSFBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:SF batting walks match ARI pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSFBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:SF batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSFBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:SF batting hits match ARI pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSFBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:SF batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSFPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:SF PA=38 matches ARI BF=38.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSFRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.512 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 321, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.514, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.51205, 'published_confidence': 0.533671, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaSFCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentARICURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentARICURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentARICURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTARI current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentARICURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSFCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPESF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSFCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKSF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSFCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTSF current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSFCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDSF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.466.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.434/0.600.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: ARI 8, SF 7.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: ARI 3 - SF 4.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SF.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for SF; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SF', 'opponent_team': 'ARI', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-06-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-06-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ARI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260701', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260701_SF@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260630', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260630_SF@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260629', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260629_SF@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SF', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ARI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SF', 'output_opponent_team': 'ARI', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SF', 'final_score_winner': 'SF', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SF', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 3 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 3 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0112, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.398, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SF', 'model_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SF', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.5724, 'winner': 'SF', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-27.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260827_ARI@SF.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: ARI@SF.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0462, 'away_run_delta': 0.0462, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0322607461437228}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03129474001843414}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.030684649662007495}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.029765837697963586}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02811965109147994}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06528284252847538, '1': 0.10927490252539514, '2': 0.15249899758293103, '3': 0.17743477481085523, '4': 0.17212172102893422, '5': 0.1392059535848404, '6': 0.09386531219065847, '7': 0.05276885098310299, '8': 0.02473291677033184, '9': 0.009664919116555273, '10': 0.0031488088779198548}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06861026102874256, '1': 0.11452201721175621, '2': 0.15847880507896706, '3': 0.1818174942206939, '4': 0.17293481334037936, '5': 0.1363676863286106, '6': 0.08915029735628174, '7': 0.04831882906946134, '8': 0.02171162292460532, '9': 0.008088173440502147}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.7795, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.188, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.5724}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 3 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 3 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0112, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.398, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SF', 'model_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SF', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.5724, 'winner': 'SF', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASSpitch_countsimulationARIPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationARIPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSFPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHSF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSFPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHSF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingcurrentARIPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentARISTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentSFPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentSFSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationARIPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationARISTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationSFPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationSFSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentARIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentARIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSFPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSFPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationARIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationARIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSFPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSFPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 3 - 4 SF.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: ARI 3 - 4 SF.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: SF wins 4-3.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=SF, simulation=SF, published=SF.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.534.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SF wins 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: SF wins 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: SF wins 4-3.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentARIRECENT_FORM_RANGEARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentARITEAM_RECENT_RECORDARI wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSFRECENT_FORM_RANGESF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSFTEAM_RECENT_RECORDSF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentARIBATTING_REALISMcurrent:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentSFBATTING_REALISMcurrent:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationARIBATTING_REALISMsimulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationSFBATTING_REALISMsimulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentARIBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentSFBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationARIBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationSFBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationARIBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:ARI batting walks match SF pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationARIBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:ARI batting home runs match SF pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationARIBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:ARI batting hits match SF pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationARIBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:ARI batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationARIPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:ARI PA=38 matches SF BF=38.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationARIRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSFBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:SF batting walks match ARI pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSFBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:SF batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSFBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:SF batting hits match ARI pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSFBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:SF batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSFPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:SF PA=38 matches ARI BF=38.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSFRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.512 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 321, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.514, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.51205, 'published_confidence': 0.533671, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaSFCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentARICURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentARICURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentARICURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTARI current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentARICURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSFCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPESF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSFCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKSF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSFCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTSF current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSFCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDSF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.466.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.434/0.600.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: ARI 8, SF 7.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: ARI 3 - SF 4.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SF.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for SF; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SF', 'opponent_team': 'ARI', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-06-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-06-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ARI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260701', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260701_SF@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260630', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260630_SF@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260629', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260629_SF@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SF', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ARI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SF', 'output_opponent_team': 'ARI', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SF', 'final_score_winner': 'SF', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SF', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 3 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 3 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0112, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.398, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SF', 'model_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SF', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.5724, 'winner': 'SF', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-27.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260827_ARI@SF.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: ARI@SF.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0462, 'away_run_delta': 0.0462, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0322607461437228}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03129474001843414}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.030684649662007495}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.029765837697963586}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02811965109147994}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06528284252847538, '1': 0.10927490252539514, '2': 0.15249899758293103, '3': 0.17743477481085523, '4': 0.17212172102893422, '5': 0.1392059535848404, '6': 0.09386531219065847, '7': 0.05276885098310299, '8': 0.02473291677033184, '9': 0.009664919116555273, '10': 0.0031488088779198548}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06861026102874256, '1': 0.11452201721175621, '2': 0.15847880507896706, '3': 0.1818174942206939, '4': 0.17293481334037936, '5': 0.1363676863286106, '6': 0.08915029735628174, '7': 0.04831882906946134, '8': 0.02171162292460532, '9': 0.008088173440502147}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.7795, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.188, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.5724}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 3 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 3 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0112, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.398, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SF', 'model_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SF', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.5724, 'winner': 'SF', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASSpitch_countsimulationARIPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationARIPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSFPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHSF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSFPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHSF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingcurrentARIPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentARISTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentSFPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentSFSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationARIPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationARISTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationSFPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationSFSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentARIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentARIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSFPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSFPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationARIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationARIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSFPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSFPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 3 - 4 SF.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: ARI 3 - 4 SF.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: SF wins 4-3.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=SF, simulation=SF, published=SF.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.534.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SF wins 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: SF wins 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: SF wins 4-3.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentARIRECENT_FORM_RANGEARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentARITEAM_RECENT_RECORDARI wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSFRECENT_FORM_RANGESF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSFTEAM_RECENT_RECORDSF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentARICURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentSFCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONSF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaARICURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXARI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (HR: current=0, sim=1).New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaARICURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=5).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaARICURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: AB current=3 box=5, BB current=1 box=0; Max Kepler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Corbin Carroll: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jose Fernandez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ildemaro Vargas: AB current=4 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSFCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=34; 2B: current=2, sim=3; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=11, sim=6).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSFCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXSF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drew Gilbert: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Turner Hill: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Rafael Devers: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Christian Koss: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Drew Cavanaugh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml3.97741637869830634.8667055936419255Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied45Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction340.534Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment34Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review34Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target34Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result34Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
ARI00001011038
SF01010010147
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentARIbatting31920144470000
currentARIpitching704468.0400
currentSFbatting387201433110000
currentSFpitching813259.0300
simulationARIbatting358111332501
simulationARIpitching714469.0438158
simulationSFbatting347301444600
simulationSFpitching813259.0338148
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentARIDHLars Nootbaar031000001100.333
currentARILFMax Kepler031000000100.333
currentARISSGeraldo Perdomo041000111000.250
currentARIRFCorbin Carroll041100101100.250
currentARI3BJose Fernandez031000000100.333
currentARICGabriel Moreno041001111100.250
currentARI2BIldemaro Vargas041000110000.250
currentARI1BTim Tawa031000000100.333
currentARICFRyan Waldschmidt031100010100.333
currentSFRFDrew Gilbert041100100100.250
currentSFLFTurner Hill041100000100.250
currentSF1BRafael Devers051001111100.200
currentSFCFJonah Cox041000010200.250
currentSFSSChristian Koss041000000100.250
currentSFDHBryce Eldridge051000111100.200
currentSF3BShay Whitcomb041000010200.250
currentSFCDrew Cavanaugh040000001100.000
currentSF2BNate Furman040000000100.000
simulationARI1DHLars Nootbaar551000000100.200
simulationARI2RFCorbin Carroll552000100100.400
simulationARI3CGabriel Moreno430000001000.000
simulationARI4SSGeraldo Perdomo442110120000.500
simulationARI5LFMax Kepler440000000000.000
simulationARI61BTim Tawa441000000100.250
simulationARI73BJose Fernandez441000000000.250
simulationARI82BIldemaro Vargas421001111010.500
simulationARI9CFRyan Waldschmidt440000000200.000
simulationSF1RFDrew Gilbert541001121000.250
simulationSF21BRafael Devers530000002300.000
simulationSF3DHBryce Eldridge440000000100.000
simulationSF4CFJonah Cox441000000000.250
simulationSF5LFTurner Hill442200100000.500
simulationSF63BShay Whitcomb441000000000.250
simulationSF7CDrew Cavanaugh431000111100.333
simulationSF8SSChristian Koss440000000000.000
simulationSF92BNate Furman441100110100.250
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentARI1Jose CabreraStarter4.1533240006.235.601.53
currentARI2Brandyn GarciaSetup Man1.0111210009.001.740.68
currentARI3Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.1000000000.002.801.11
currentARI4Juan MorilloCloser1.0000000000.002.540.98
currentARI6Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)0.1100010000.003.041.12
currentSF1Landen RouppStarter5.0511130001.804.341.31
currentSF2Dylan SmithCloser1.0000000000.003.451.36
currentSF3Jason FoleyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.0211110009.004.051.35
currentSF4Sam HentgesSetup Man1.0111001009.003.271.58
currentSF5Trent HarrisMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.0000010000.005.621.75
simulationARI1Jose CabreraStarter4.153324023906.235.601.53
simulationARI2Juan MorilloCloser1.00000003130.002.540.98
simulationARI3Brandyn GarciaSetup Man1.01112106249.001.740.68
simulationARI4Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.10000004240.002.801.11
simulationARI5Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.1100011270.003.041.12
simulationSF1Landen RouppStarter5.051113022831.804.341.31
simulationSF2Dylan SmithCloser1.00000003130.003.451.36
simulationSF3Sam HentgesSetup Man1.01110014169.003.271.58
simulationSF4Jason FoleyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.02111106239.004.051.35
simulationSF5Trent HarrisMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.00000103130.005.621.75
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
ARIJose CabreraStarter4.135242390
ARIBrandyn GarciaSetup Man1.01121624
ARIJonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.10000424
ARIJuan MorilloCloser1.00000313
ARIKevin GinkelMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.1010127
SFLanden RouppStarter5.015132283
SFDylan SmithCloser1.00000313
SFJason FoleyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.01211623
SFSam HentgesSetup Man1.01100416
SFTrent HarrisMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.00001313
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXinfo0001Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONinfo0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXinfo0000Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSnot triggered0000Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTgood0001Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.