MLB JSON Audit Report

Generated 2026-08-26 21:36:36. This single HTML file audits only the selected game date. The default view focuses on actionable problems first; detailed checks, passed checks, batting, pitching, pitch counts, and the rule catalog stay available in collapsible sections.

1Critical
0Error
0Warn
99Pass
8Info

20260826_MIN@OAK

20260826_MIN@OAK.json • 2026-08-26

MIN 4 - OAK 3
CRITICAL

Final simulation needs review: critical box-score inconsistencies remain. Risk score: 100.

CRITICAL 1ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 99INFO 8
Action summary - what to fix first
LevelProblem group / fixCountTeamsExample
CRITICALBoxscore Crosscheck
Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.
1C / 0E / 0WMINsimulation:MIN runs mismatch: batting R=4, final=4, opponent pitching R=3.
Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
CRITICALboxscore_crosschecksimulationMINRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:MIN runs mismatch: batting R=4, final=4, opponent pitching R=3.
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
CRITICALboxscore_crosschecksimulationMINRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:MIN runs mismatch: batting R=4, final=4, opponent pitching R=3.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentMINCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONMIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentOAKCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONOAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMINCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=6).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMINCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXMIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kaelen Culpepper: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Trevor Larnach: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaOAKCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXOAK model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=3; ER: current=4, sim=3).New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaOAKCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXOAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=28; H: current=8, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaOAKCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXOAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Tommy White: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brian Serven: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Darell Hernaiz: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Michael Stefanic: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentMINBATTING_REALISMcurrent:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentOAKBATTING_REALISMcurrent:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationMINBATTING_REALISMsimulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationOAKBATTING_REALISMsimulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentMINBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentOAKBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationMINBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationOAKBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMINBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:MIN batting walks match OAK pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMINBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:MIN batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMINBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:MIN batting hits match OAK pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMINBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:MIN batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMINPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:MIN PA=39 matches OAK BF=39.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationOAKBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:OAK batting walks match MIN pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationOAKBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:OAK batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationOAKBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:OAK batting hits match MIN pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationOAKBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:OAK batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationOAKPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:OAK PA=33 matches MIN BF=33.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationOAKRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.511 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 312, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5128, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.51145, 'published_confidence': 0.526935, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaMINCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMINCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEMIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMINCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKMIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMINCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTMIN current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMINCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDMIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentOAKCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEOAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentOAKCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKOAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentOAKCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTOAK current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentOAKCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDOAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.527.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.527.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.473.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.448/0.615.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: MIN 7, OAK 1.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: MIN 4 - OAK 3.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-08-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260825', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.548657, 'artifact': '20260825_MIN@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260824', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.526931, 'artifact': '20260824_MIN@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260726', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260726_OAK@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260725', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260725_OAK@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260724', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260724_OAK@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIN', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0903, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.006, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7253, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-26.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260826_MIN@OAK.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: MIN@OAK.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0231, 'away_run_delta': 0.0231, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.032358662066091726}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03134753668359645}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030733817405583}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02977346426068818}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028233811637898485}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06883699935819837, '1': 0.11487702001886163, '2': 0.15887270795335368, '3': 0.18208339469428103, '4': 0.17294033337017484, '5': 0.13612163241797245, '6': 0.08878976615107197, '7': 0.04799583839128159, '8': 0.02150052967817517, '9': 0.007981777966629262}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06549852019699431, '1': 0.10961485662692945, '2': 0.15288527628514967, '3': 0.1777134159895365, '4': 0.1721603265153812, '5': 0.1389966235377002, '6': 0.0935262957613954, '7': 0.05244710578519303, '8': 0.024511372555891624, '9': 0.009547112604132149, '10': 0.003099094141696441}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.1504, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.064, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.7253}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0903, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.006, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7253, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 172.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMINPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHMIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMINPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHMIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASSpitch_countsimulationOAKPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHOAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationOAKPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHOAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 172.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingcurrentMINPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentMINSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentOAKPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentOAKSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationMINPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationMINSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationOAKPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationOAKSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentOAKPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentOAKPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationOAKPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationOAKPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 4 - 3 OAK.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: MIN 4 - 3 OAK.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 4-3.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=MIN, simulation=MIN, published=MIN.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.527.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIN wins 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: MIN wins 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: MIN wins 4-3.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMINRECENT_FORM_RANGEMIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMINTEAM_RECENT_RECORDMIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentOAKRECENT_FORM_RANGEOAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentOAKTEAM_RECENT_RECORDOAK wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentMINBATTING_REALISMcurrent:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentOAKBATTING_REALISMcurrent:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationMINBATTING_REALISMsimulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationOAKBATTING_REALISMsimulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentMINBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentOAKBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationMINBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationOAKBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMINBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:MIN batting walks match OAK pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMINBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:MIN batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMINBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:MIN batting hits match OAK pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMINBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:MIN batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMINPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:MIN PA=39 matches OAK BF=39.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationOAKBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:OAK batting walks match MIN pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationOAKBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:OAK batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationOAKBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:OAK batting hits match MIN pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationOAKBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:OAK batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationOAKPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:OAK PA=33 matches MIN BF=33.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationOAKRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.511 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 312, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5128, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.51145, 'published_confidence': 0.526935, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaMINCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMINCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEMIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMINCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKMIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMINCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTMIN current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMINCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDMIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentOAKCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEOAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentOAKCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKOAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentOAKCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTOAK current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentOAKCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDOAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.527.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.527.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.473.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.448/0.615.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: MIN 7, OAK 1.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: MIN 4 - OAK 3.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-08-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260825', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.548657, 'artifact': '20260825_MIN@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260824', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.526931, 'artifact': '20260824_MIN@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260726', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260726_OAK@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260725', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260725_OAK@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260724', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260724_OAK@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIN', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0903, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.006, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7253, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-26.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260826_MIN@OAK.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: MIN@OAK.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0231, 'away_run_delta': 0.0231, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.032358662066091726}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03134753668359645}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030733817405583}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02977346426068818}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028233811637898485}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06883699935819837, '1': 0.11487702001886163, '2': 0.15887270795335368, '3': 0.18208339469428103, '4': 0.17294033337017484, '5': 0.13612163241797245, '6': 0.08878976615107197, '7': 0.04799583839128159, '8': 0.02150052967817517, '9': 0.007981777966629262}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06549852019699431, '1': 0.10961485662692945, '2': 0.15288527628514967, '3': 0.1777134159895365, '4': 0.1721603265153812, '5': 0.1389966235377002, '6': 0.0935262957613954, '7': 0.05244710578519303, '8': 0.024511372555891624, '9': 0.009547112604132149, '10': 0.003099094141696441}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.1504, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.064, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.7253}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0903, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.006, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7253, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 172.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMINPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHMIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMINPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHMIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASSpitch_countsimulationOAKPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHOAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationOAKPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHOAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 172.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingcurrentMINPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentMINSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentOAKPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentOAKSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationMINPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationMINSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationOAKPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationOAKSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentOAKPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentOAKPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationOAKPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationOAKPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 4 - 3 OAK.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: MIN 4 - 3 OAK.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 4-3.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=MIN, simulation=MIN, published=MIN.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.527.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIN wins 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: MIN wins 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: MIN wins 4-3.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMINRECENT_FORM_RANGEMIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMINTEAM_RECENT_RECORDMIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentOAKRECENT_FORM_RANGEOAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentOAKTEAM_RECENT_RECORDOAK wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentMINCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONMIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentOAKCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONOAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMINCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=6).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMINCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXMIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kaelen Culpepper: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Trevor Larnach: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaOAKCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXOAK model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=3; ER: current=4, sim=3).New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaOAKCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXOAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=28; H: current=8, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaOAKCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXOAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Tommy White: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brian Serven: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Darell Hernaiz: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Michael Stefanic: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml5.78011773701173855.705244873940792Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied66Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction430.527Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment43Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review43Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target43Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result43Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
MIN00130000047
OAK03000000031
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentMINbatting35820154370000
currentMINpitching103579.0300
currentOAKbatting31810145280000
currentOAKpitching624569.0400
simulationMINbatting347102445600
simulationMINpitching103579.0333153
simulationOAKbatting281100335700
simulationOAKpitching723569.0339172
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentMINCFLuke Keaschall041100001100.250
currentMIN2BKody Clemens041000110100.250
currentMIN3BBrooks Lee051001110100.200
currentMINCRyan Jeffers041100111100.250
currentMIN1BRoyce Lewis041000000100.250
currentMINDHJosh Bell041000110100.250
currentMINSSKaelen Culpepper041000010100.250
currentMINLFTrevor Larnach030000000000.000
currentMINRFAlan Roden031000001000.333
currentOAKCFHenry Bolte041000101100.250
currentOAK1BTommy White041000000100.250
currentOAKLFZack Gelof041000110100.250
currentOAKDHBrian Serven031001110100.333
currentOAKSSAlika Williams031100000100.333
currentOAK3BDarell Hernaiz031000000100.333
currentOAKRFLawrence Butler031000111100.333
currentOAK2BMichael Stefanic030000100000.000
currentOAKCJonah Heim041000010100.250
simulationMIN1CFLuke Keaschall542001111000.500
simulationMIN23BBrooks Lee540000111100.000
simulationMIN3DHJosh Bell551000100000.200
simulationMIN4CRyan Jeffers420000002100.000
simulationMIN52BKody Clemens441000000100.250
simulationMIN61BRoyce Lewis440000000100.000
simulationMIN7LFTrevor Larnach440000000100.000
simulationMIN8SSKaelen Culpepper443101120100.750
simulationMIN9RFAlan Roden430000001000.000
simulationOAK1CFHenry Bolte420000102100.000
simulationOAK2LFZack Gelof440000000000.000
simulationOAK3RFLawrence Butler430000101100.000
simulationOAK4CJonah Heim430000001100.000
simulationOAK51BTommy White440000000000.000
simulationOAK62BMichael Stefanic440000000200.000
simulationOAK7DHBrian Serven330000000100.000
simulationOAK8SSAlika Williams331100130000.333
simulationOAK93BDarell Hernaiz320000001100.000
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentMIN1Connor PrielippStarter5.0133560005.405.571.40
currentMIN2Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.0000000000.003.411.32
currentMIN3Jeff HoffmanSetup Man1.0000010000.004.041.44
currentMIN4Yoendrys GómezCloser1.0000000000.003.791.39
currentMIN5A.J. MinterMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.0000000000.001.870.92
currentOAK1J.T. GinnStarter5.2533441004.763.601.23
currentOAK2Luis MedinaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.1000010000.003.341.40
currentOAK3Elvis AlvaradoSetup Man1.0111101009.004.191.16
currentOAK4Hogan HarrisCloser1.0000010000.003.611.53
simulationMIN1Connor PrielippStarter5.013356021985.405.571.40
simulationMIN2Yoendrys GómezCloser1.00000003130.003.791.39
simulationMIN3Jeff HoffmanSetup Man1.00000103130.004.041.44
simulationMIN4Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.00000003160.003.411.32
simulationMIN5A.J. MinterMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.00000003130.001.870.92
simulationOAK1J.T. GinnStarter5.2522441261143.183.601.23
simulationOAK2Hogan HarrisCloser1.00000103130.003.611.53
simulationOAK3Elvis AlvaradoSetup Man1.01111015209.004.191.16
simulationOAK4Luis MedinaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.11000105250.003.341.40
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
MINConnor PrielippStarter5.031562198
MINAndrew MorrisMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.00000316
MINJeff HoffmanSetup Man1.00001313
MINYoendrys GómezCloser1.00000313
MINA.J. MinterMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.00000313
OAKJ.T. GinnStarter5.2254426114
OAKLuis MedinaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.10101525
OAKElvis AlvaradoSetup Man1.01110520
OAKHogan HarrisCloser1.00001313
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXinfo0001Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONinfo0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXinfo0000Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSnot triggered0000Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTgood0001Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALcritical1001Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.