MLB JSON Audit Report

Generated 2026-08-16 19:42:17. This single HTML file audits only the selected game date. The default view focuses on actionable problems first; detailed checks, passed checks, batting, pitching, pitch counts, and the rule catalog stay available in collapsible sections.

0Critical
0Error
0Warn
101Pass
7Info

20260816_SEA@HOU

20260816_SEA@HOU.json • 2026-08-16

SEA 1 - HOU 4
PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONHOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentSEACURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONSEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaHOUCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXHOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaHOUCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXHOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yordan Alvarez: BB current=1 box=0; Jose Altuve: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; LaMonte Wade Jr.: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nick Allen: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSEACURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSEACURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXSEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dominic Canzone: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Brendan Donovan: RBI current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Weston Wilson: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Brock Rodden: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1; Cole Young: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentHOUBATTING_REALISMcurrent:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentSEABATTING_REALISMcurrent:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationHOUBATTING_REALISMsimulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationSEABATTING_REALISMsimulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentHOUBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentSEABATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationHOUBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationSEABATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting walks match SEA pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting home runs match SEA pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting hits match SEA pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:HOU PA=36 matches SEA BF=36.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOURUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSEABAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:SEA batting walks match HOU pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSEABAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:SEA batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSEABAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:SEA batting hits match HOU pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSEABAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:SEA batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSEAPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:SEA PA=36 matches HOU BF=36.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSEARUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.512 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 235, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5149, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5125, 'published_confidence': 0.5125, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaHOUCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXHOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaSEACURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEHOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKHOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTHOU current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDHOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSEACURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPESEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSEACURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKSEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSEACURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTSEA current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSEACURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDSEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.488.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 5 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.402/0.635.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: SEA 5, HOU 8.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: SEA 1 - HOU 4.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for HOU; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick reversal condition was suppressed after a blowout miss and opponent breakout'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'opponent_team': 'SEA', 'h2h_net_margin': -7, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-08-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-05-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'SEA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260815', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.55645, 'artifact': '20260815_SEA@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260814', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.512, 'artifact': '20260814_SEA@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'HOU', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'output_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'HOU', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 3 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 1 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0514, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.27, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1811, 'winner': 'HOU', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-16.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260816_SEA@HOU.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: SEA@HOU.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -14.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 14.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0808, 'away_run_delta': 0.0808, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}]}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029770637172967022}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029755465663159578}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.029260468925557163}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02924555740422508}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02534823101322394}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.060245934222594055, '1': 0.10129007480633515, '2': 0.1432408151459135, '3': 0.17038345442901837, '4': 0.17047032835931267, '5': 0.14346003077073574, '6': 0.10154856365802671, '7': 0.060461287852184575, '8': 0.030279015172838427, '9': 0.012754599935023233, '10': 0.00451910757510192, '11': 0.0013467880729156859}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06317946554616279, '1': 0.1059524647252683, '2': 0.14869585374292021, '3': 0.17463823446281684, '4': 0.17164552451546145, '5': 0.14118166997964898, '6': 0.0971799841361954, '7': 0.05597937064826163, '8': 0.0269855875265104, '9': 0.010886503657671598, '10': 0.003675341059082541}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0202, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.48, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1811}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 3 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 1 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0514, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.27, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1811, 'winner': 'HOU', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASSpitch_countsimulationHOUPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHHOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationHOUPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHHOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSEAPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHSEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSEAPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHSEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingcurrentHOUPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentHOUSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentSEAPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentSEASTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationHOUPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationHOUSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationSEAPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationSEASTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSEAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSEAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSEAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSEAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 2 - 3 HOU.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: SEA 1 - 4 HOU.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 4-1.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=HOU, simulation=HOU, published=HOU.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.512.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary is consistent: HOU wins 4-1.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: HOU wins 1-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 1-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 2-3, final 1-4 (delta 2).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: HOU wins 4-1.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentHOURECENT_FORM_RANGEHOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentHOUTEAM_RECENT_RECORDHOU wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSEARECENT_FORM_RANGESEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSEATEAM_RECENT_RECORDSEA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentHOUBATTING_REALISMcurrent:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentSEABATTING_REALISMcurrent:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationHOUBATTING_REALISMsimulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationSEABATTING_REALISMsimulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentHOUBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentSEABATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationHOUBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationSEABATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting walks match SEA pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting home runs match SEA pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting hits match SEA pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:HOU PA=36 matches SEA BF=36.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOURUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSEABAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:SEA batting walks match HOU pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSEABAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:SEA batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSEABAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:SEA batting hits match HOU pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSEABAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:SEA batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSEAPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:SEA PA=36 matches HOU BF=36.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSEARUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.512 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 235, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5149, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5125, 'published_confidence': 0.5125, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaHOUCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXHOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaSEACURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEHOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKHOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTHOU current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDHOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSEACURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPESEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSEACURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKSEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSEACURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTSEA current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSEACURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDSEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.488.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 5 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.402/0.635.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: SEA 5, HOU 8.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: SEA 1 - HOU 4.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for HOU; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick reversal condition was suppressed after a blowout miss and opponent breakout'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'opponent_team': 'SEA', 'h2h_net_margin': -7, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-08-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-05-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'SEA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260815', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.55645, 'artifact': '20260815_SEA@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260814', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.512, 'artifact': '20260814_SEA@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'HOU', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'output_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'HOU', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 3 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 1 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0514, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.27, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1811, 'winner': 'HOU', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-16.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260816_SEA@HOU.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: SEA@HOU.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -14.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 14.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0808, 'away_run_delta': 0.0808, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}]}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029770637172967022}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029755465663159578}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.029260468925557163}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02924555740422508}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02534823101322394}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.060245934222594055, '1': 0.10129007480633515, '2': 0.1432408151459135, '3': 0.17038345442901837, '4': 0.17047032835931267, '5': 0.14346003077073574, '6': 0.10154856365802671, '7': 0.060461287852184575, '8': 0.030279015172838427, '9': 0.012754599935023233, '10': 0.00451910757510192, '11': 0.0013467880729156859}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06317946554616279, '1': 0.1059524647252683, '2': 0.14869585374292021, '3': 0.17463823446281684, '4': 0.17164552451546145, '5': 0.14118166997964898, '6': 0.0971799841361954, '7': 0.05597937064826163, '8': 0.0269855875265104, '9': 0.010886503657671598, '10': 0.003675341059082541}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0202, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.48, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1811}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 3 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 1 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0514, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.27, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1811, 'winner': 'HOU', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASSpitch_countsimulationHOUPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHHOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationHOUPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHHOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSEAPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHSEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSEAPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHSEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingcurrentHOUPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentHOUSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentSEAPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentSEASTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationHOUPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationHOUSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationSEAPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationSEASTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSEAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSEAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSEAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSEAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 2 - 3 HOU.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: SEA 1 - 4 HOU.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 4-1.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=HOU, simulation=HOU, published=HOU.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.512.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary is consistent: HOU wins 4-1.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: HOU wins 1-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 1-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 2-3, final 1-4 (delta 2).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: HOU wins 4-1.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentHOURECENT_FORM_RANGEHOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentHOUTEAM_RECENT_RECORDHOU wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSEARECENT_FORM_RANGESEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSEATEAM_RECENT_RECORDSEA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONHOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentSEACURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONSEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaHOUCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXHOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaHOUCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXHOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yordan Alvarez: BB current=1 box=0; Jose Altuve: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; LaMonte Wade Jr.: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nick Allen: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSEACURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSEACURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXSEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dominic Canzone: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Brendan Donovan: RBI current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Weston Wilson: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Brock Rodden: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1; Cole Young: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml3.77436423301696784.264793872833252Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied44Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction340.512Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment34Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review34Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target34Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result14Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
SEA10000000015
HOU01030000048
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentSEAbatting368100321100000
currentSEApitching804448.0400
currentHOUbatting35900054190000
currentHOUpitching501399.0100
simulationSEAbatting325200113901
simulationSEApitching804448.0436147
simulationHOUbatting318100444410
simulationHOUpitching501399.0136165
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentSEARFDominic Canzone031000000100.333
currentSEA3BBrendan Donovan041000010100.250
currentSEACFJulio Rodríguez051000100100.200
currentSEA1BJosh Naylor041000000100.250
currentSEALFRandy Arozarena041000100100.250
currentSEADHWeston Wilson031000000100.333
currentSEASSBrock Rodden041100010200.250
currentSEA2BCole Young051000010100.200
currentSEACCal Raleigh040000001100.000
currentHOULFYordan Alvarez041000111100.250
currentHOUDHJose Altuve041000100100.250
currentHOU3BIsaac Paredes041000010100.250
currentHOURFLaMonte Wade Jr.031000010100.333
currentHOUSSJeremy Peña051000110100.200
currentHOU2BNick Allen031000000100.333
currentHOUCFDaulton Varsho041000000100.250
currentHOU1BChristian Walker041000110100.250
currentHOUCYainer Diaz041000000100.250
simulationSEA13BBrendan Donovan441000000100.250
simulationSEA2LFRandy Arozarena441100000200.250
simulationSEA3RFDominic Canzone442100110000.500
simulationSEA4CFJulio Rodríguez441000000100.250
simulationSEA51BJosh Naylor430000001000.000
simulationSEA62BCole Young430000001100.000
simulationSEA7CCal Raleigh440000000200.000
simulationSEA8DHWeston Wilson420000001110.000
simulationSEA9SSBrock Rodden440000000100.000
simulationHOU1SSJeremy Peña440000000200.000
simulationHOU2LFYordan Alvarez441000110100.250
simulationHOU33BIsaac Paredes420000111000.000
simulationHOU4DHJose Altuve432000001000.667
simulationHOU5CFDaulton Varsho440000000000.000
simulationHOU61BChristian Walker442000000000.500
simulationHOU7RFLaMonte Wade Jr.431000001000.333
simulationHOU8CYainer Diaz441100110100.250
simulationHOU92BNick Allen431000111000.333
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentSEA1Bryan WooStarter5.2733440004.764.151.10
currentSEA2Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever1.0000000000.003.111.27
currentSEA3José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever1.0111000009.003.711.33
currentSEA4Gabe SpeierMiddle Reliever0.1000000000.002.841.17
currentSEA5Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever0.0000000004.061.20
currentHOU1Hunter BrownStarter5.2411170001.593.681.27
currentHOU2Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever1.1100010000.004.501.39
currentHOU3Josh HaderMiddle Reliever1.0000000000.000.620.66
currentHOU4Steven OkertMiddle Reliever1.0000210000.002.080.86
simulationSEA1Bryan WooStarter5.2733440281084.764.151.10
simulationSEA2Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever0.0000000064.061.20
simulationSEA3José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever1.0111000449.003.711.33
simulationSEA4Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever1.00000003150.003.111.27
simulationSEA5Gabe SpeierMiddle Reliever0.10000001140.002.841.17
simulationHOU1Hunter BrownStarter5.2411170231051.593.681.27
simulationHOU2Josh HaderMiddle Reliever1.00000003140.000.620.66
simulationHOU3Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever1.11000105250.004.501.39
simulationHOU4Steven OkertMiddle Reliever1.00002105210.002.080.86
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
SEABryan WooStarter5.2374428108
SEAEduard BazardoMiddle Reliever1.00000315
SEAJosé A. FerrerMiddle Reliever1.0110044
SEAGabe SpeierMiddle Reliever0.10000114
SEAAndrés MuñozMiddle Reliever0.0000006
HOUHunter BrownStarter5.2141723105
HOUBryan AbreuMiddle Reliever1.10101525
HOUJosh HaderMiddle Reliever1.00000314
HOUSteven OkertMiddle Reliever1.00021521
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXinfo0002Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONinfo0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXinfo0000Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSgood0001Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.