MLB JSON Audit Report

20260814_COL@SF

20260814_COL@SF.json • 2026-08-14

COL 3 - SF 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=8; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake McCarthy: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Willi Castro: AB current=4 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Troy Johnston: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Connor Norby: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Zac Veen: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=2 box=1; Brett Sullivan: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=5; R: current=0, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Rafael Devers: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Victor Bericoto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Osleivis Basabe: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Buddy Kennedy: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=2 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match SF pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match SF pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=36 matches SF BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match COL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=36 matches COL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.512 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 216, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5139, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.512, 'published_confidence': 0.512, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.488.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.458/0.630.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 6, SF 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 3 - SF 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SF.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SF; cap=0.54, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SF', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-07-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-07-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'COL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260712', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260712_COL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260711', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.57277, 'artifact': '20260711_COL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260709', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'COL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260709_COL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260705', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'COL', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260705_SF@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260704', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260704_SF@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SF', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SF', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SF', 'final_score_winner': 'SF', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SF', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'COL 3 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'COL 3 - 5 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0572, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.192, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SF', 'model_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2624, 'winner': 'SF', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260814_COL@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@SF.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.0462, 'away_run_delta': -0.0462, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.032422865369631355}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03138195393157536}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.030765845584114538}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02977813150625994}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.0283088434014781}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06564041643141513, '1': 0.10983844178513388, '2': 0.15313903853093588, '3': 0.1778959194108848, '4': 0.17218470619184223, '5': 0.13885824716425973, '6': 0.0933033637235609, '7': 0.0522361837034074, '8': 0.02436655306070365, '9': 0.009470333468301138, '10': 0.0030667965295551702}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0689861953394831, '1': 0.11511053402999259, '2': 0.1591314938264176, '3': 0.182257499087118, '4': 0.1729429527444916, '5': 0.13595917751321487, '6': 0.08855281748286269, '7': 0.047784212682179535, '8': 0.02136262819124919, '9': 0.007912489102990944}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5071, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.192, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2624}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'COL 3 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'COL 3 - 5 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0572, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.192, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SF', 'model_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2624, 'winner': 'SF', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 4 - 5 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 3 - 5 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SF wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SF, simulation=SF, published=SF.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.512.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SF wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SF wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 3-5 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SF wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match SF pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match SF pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=36 matches SF BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match COL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=36 matches COL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.512 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 216, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5139, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.512, 'published_confidence': 0.512, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.488.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.458/0.630.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 6, SF 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 3 - SF 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SF.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SF; cap=0.54, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SF', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-07-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-07-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'COL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260712', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260712_COL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260711', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.57277, 'artifact': '20260711_COL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260709', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'COL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260709_COL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260705', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'COL', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260705_SF@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260704', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260704_SF@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SF', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SF', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SF', 'final_score_winner': 'SF', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SF', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'COL 3 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'COL 3 - 5 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0572, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.192, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SF', 'model_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2624, 'winner': 'SF', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260814_COL@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@SF.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.0462, 'away_run_delta': -0.0462, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.032422865369631355}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03138195393157536}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.030765845584114538}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02977813150625994}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.0283088434014781}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06564041643141513, '1': 0.10983844178513388, '2': 0.15313903853093588, '3': 0.1778959194108848, '4': 0.17218470619184223, '5': 0.13885824716425973, '6': 0.0933033637235609, '7': 0.0522361837034074, '8': 0.02436655306070365, '9': 0.009470333468301138, '10': 0.0030667965295551702}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0689861953394831, '1': 0.11511053402999259, '2': 0.1591314938264176, '3': 0.182257499087118, '4': 0.1729429527444916, '5': 0.13595917751321487, '6': 0.08855281748286269, '7': 0.047784212682179535, '8': 0.02136262819124919, '9': 0.007912489102990944}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5071, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.192, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2624}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'COL 3 - 4 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'COL 3 - 5 SF', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0572, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.192, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SF', 'model_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner': 'SF', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2624, 'winner': 'SF', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 4 - 5 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 3 - 5 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SF wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SF, simulation=SF, published=SF.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.512.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SF wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SF wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 3-5 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SF wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=8; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake McCarthy: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Willi Castro: AB current=4 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Troy Johnston: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Connor Norby: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Zac Veen: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=2 box=1; Brett Sullivan: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=5; R: current=0, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Rafael Devers: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Victor Bericoto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Osleivis Basabe: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Buddy Kennedy: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=2 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.393302917480469	5.410855293273926		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.512	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	3	6
SF	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	5	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	COL	batting	30	9	0	0	1	5	3	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		9			2		5	3	6					8.0	5	0	0
current	SF	batting	31	8	0	0	0	1	0	1	10	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		6			0		3	3	8					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	COL	batting	32	6	2	0	0	3	3	3	8	1	0
simulation	COL	pitching		9			2		5	3	6					8.0	5	36	148
simulation	SF	batting	33	9	1	0	2	5	5	3	6	0	0
simulation	SF	pitching		6			0		3	3	8					9.0	3	36	152

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	COL		CF	Jake McCarthy	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		3B	Willi Castro	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		DH	Troy Johnston	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		2B	Connor Norby	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		RF	Zac Veen	0	3	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.333
current	COL		C	Brett Sullivan	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	COL		LF	Mickey Moniak	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		1B	TJ Rumfield	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	COL		SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SF		DH	Rafael Devers	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SF		1B	Bryce Eldridge	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	SF		LF	Victor Bericoto	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SF		2B	Osleivis Basabe	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	SF		3B	Buddy Kennedy	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SF		SS	Christian Koss	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SF		C	Andrew Knizner	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SF		CF	Jonah Cox	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.333
current	SF		RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	COL	1	CF	Jake McCarthy	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	COL	2	LF	Mickey Moniak	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	3	3B	Willi Castro	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	COL	4	1B	TJ Rumfield	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	COL	5	DH	Troy Johnston	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	COL	6	2B	Connor Norby	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	COL	7	RF	Zac Veen	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	COL	8	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	COL	9	C	Brett Sullivan	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SF	1	CF	Jonah Cox	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SF	2	DH	Rafael Devers	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	SF	3	1B	Bryce Eldridge	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.667
simulation	SF	4	LF	Victor Bericoto	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.500
simulation	SF	5	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	SF	6	2B	Osleivis Basabe	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	SF	7	3B	Buddy Kennedy	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SF	8	C	Andrew Knizner	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SF	9	SS	Christian Koss	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	COL	1	Kyle Freeland	Starter	4.2	7	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	9.64	6.63	1.50
current	COL	2	Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.72	1.19
current	COL	3	Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.58	1.53
current	COL	4	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	5.44	1.60
current	SF	1	Landen Roupp	Starter	5.1	6	3	3	2	7	0	0	0	5.06	4.22	1.29
current	SF	2	JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.34	1.18
current	SF	3	Dylan Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.09	1.29
current	SF	4	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.98	1.13
simulation	COL	1	Kyle Freeland	Starter	4.2	7	5	5	2	1	2	23	94	9.64	6.63	1.50
simulation	COL	2	Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	20	0.00	4.58	1.53
simulation	COL	3	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	4	17	0.00	5.44	1.60
simulation	COL	4	Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.72	1.19
simulation	SF	1	Landen Roupp	Starter	5.1	6	3	3	2	7	0	24	96	5.06	4.22	1.29
simulation	SF	2	Dylan Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	17	0.00	3.09	1.29
simulation	SF	3	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	21	0.00	2.98	1.13
simulation	SF	4	JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	18	0.00	3.34	1.18

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
COL	Kyle Freeland	Starter	4.2	5	7	2	1	23	94
COL	Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
COL	Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	20
COL	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	3	4	17
SF	Landen Roupp	Starter	5.1	3	6	2	7	24	96
SF	JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	18
SF	Dylan Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	17
SF	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	0	5	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260814_KC@LAA

20260814_KC@LAA.json • 2026-08-14

KC 3 - LAA 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; John Rave: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=1, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=3 box=4; Mike Trout: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4; Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Zach Neto: RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Schanuel: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Denzer Guzman: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match LAA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=38 matches LAA BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match KC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=38 matches KC BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.501 -> 0.508 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.501305, 'sample_size': 212, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5142, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.507752, 'published_confidence': 0.51, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.432/0.600.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 10, LAA 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 3 - LAA 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': -16, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-04-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -11, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-04-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 5 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.058, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.142, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1838, 'winner': 'LAA', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260814_KC@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@LAA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -16.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 16.0, 'home_average_margin': -5.333, 'home_run_delta': -0.1091, 'away_run_delta': 0.1091, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03216911941238339}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030952376757721826}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.030873160271001406}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02970543508386216}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.027860726719903688}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06659072966082875, '1': 0.11133433761145567, '2': 0.15483090192487153, '3': 0.1791015382126667, '4': 0.17232732477321017, '5': 0.137918375904867, '6': 0.09181281026877412, '7': 0.05083906858190828, '8': 0.023415586913778208, '9': 0.008970686272664034, '10': 0.0028586398749752395}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06700160502200164, '1': 0.11198028651541711, '2': 0.15555827715349727, '3': 0.17961386447829109, '4': 0.17237797385269998, '5': 0.137505119718549, '6': 0.0911698305454988, '7': 0.05024335235732458, '8': 0.023014484539859593, '9': 0.008762319364138479, '10': 0.0027728864527223505}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.1708, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.208, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1838}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 5 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.058, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.142, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1838, 'winner': 'LAA', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 4 - 5 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 3 - 5 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAA, simulation=LAA, published=LAA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAA wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 3-5 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAA wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match LAA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=38 matches LAA BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match KC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=38 matches KC BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.501 -> 0.508 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.501305, 'sample_size': 212, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5142, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.507752, 'published_confidence': 0.51, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.432/0.600.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 10, LAA 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 3 - LAA 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': -16, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-04-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -11, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-04-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 5 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.058, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.142, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1838, 'winner': 'LAA', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260814_KC@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@LAA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -16.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 16.0, 'home_average_margin': -5.333, 'home_run_delta': -0.1091, 'away_run_delta': 0.1091, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03216911941238339}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030952376757721826}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.030873160271001406}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02970543508386216}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.027860726719903688}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06659072966082875, '1': 0.11133433761145567, '2': 0.15483090192487153, '3': 0.1791015382126667, '4': 0.17232732477321017, '5': 0.137918375904867, '6': 0.09181281026877412, '7': 0.05083906858190828, '8': 0.023415586913778208, '9': 0.008970686272664034, '10': 0.0028586398749752395}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06700160502200164, '1': 0.11198028651541711, '2': 0.15555827715349727, '3': 0.17961386447829109, '4': 0.17237797385269998, '5': 0.137505119718549, '6': 0.0911698305454988, '7': 0.05024335235732458, '8': 0.023014484539859593, '9': 0.008762319364138479, '10': 0.0027728864527223505}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.1708, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.208, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1838}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 5 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.058, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.142, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1838, 'winner': 'LAA', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 4 - 5 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 3 - 5 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAA, simulation=LAA, published=LAA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAA wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 3-5 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAA wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; John Rave: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=1, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=3 box=4; Mike Trout: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4; Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Zach Neto: RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Schanuel: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Denzer Guzman: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.125767230987549	4.503369331359863		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	10
LAA	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	KC	batting	32	9	0	0	0	1	2	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		10			0		5	3	9					8.0	5	0	0
current	LAA	batting	33	9	0	0	0	1	2	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		10			1		3	1	10					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	KC	batting	37	10	2	0	1	3	3	1	10	0	0
simulation	KC	pitching		10			0		5	3	9					8.0	5	38	157
simulation	LAA	batting	34	10	3	0	0	5	5	3	9	0	1
simulation	LAA	pitching		10			1		3	1	10					9.0	3	38	155

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	KC		1B	Jac Caglianone	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		2B	Michael Massey	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		C	Carter Jensen	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	KC		3B	Nick Loftin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		DH	Josh Rojas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		RF	John Rave	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	KC		CF	Kyle Isbel	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		LF	Wade Meckler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		DH	Moisés Ballesteros	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		CF	Mike Trout	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	LAA		RF	Josh Lowe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		2B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		1B	Nolan Schanuel	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		3B	Denzer Guzman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		C	Tyler Heineman	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	KC	1	C	Carter Jensen	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	5	5	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.600
simulation	KC	3	1B	Jac Caglianone	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	4	3B	Nick Loftin	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	KC	5	2B	Michael Massey	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	KC	6	LF	Isaac Collins	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	KC	7	RF	John Rave	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	KC	8	DH	Josh Rojas	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	KC	9	CF	Kyle Isbel	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	1	LF	Wade Meckler	5	4	3	2	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.750
simulation	LAA	2	CF	Mike Trout	5	5	1	1	0	1	0	0	3	0	0.200
simulation	LAA	3	1B	Nolan Schanuel	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	LAA	4	SS	Zach Neto	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	5	DH	Moisés Ballesteros	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	6	2B	Vaughn Grissom	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	LAA	7	RF	Josh Lowe	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	8	3B	Denzer Guzman	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	9	C	Tyler Heineman	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	KC	1	Seth Lugo	Starter	6.0	6	4	4	2	6	0	0	0	6.00	4.41	1.37
current	KC	2	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	4.26	1.22
current	KC	3	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.77	1.42
current	KC	4	Nate Pearson	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.70	1.24
current	KC	5	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		6.17	1.56
current	LAA	1	Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	4.2	8	3	3	0	4	1	0	0	5.79	7.20	1.62
current	LAA	2	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.00	0.81
current	LAA	3	Ben Joyce	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.50
current	LAA	4	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.05	1.26
current	LAA	5	Luke Murphy	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.38	1.69
simulation	KC	1	Seth Lugo	Starter	6.0	6	4	4	2	6	0	26	102	6.00	4.41	1.37
simulation	KC	2	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6		6.17	1.56
simulation	KC	3	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	5	19	9.00	4.26	1.22
simulation	KC	4	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	3.77	1.42
simulation	KC	5	Nate Pearson	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	3	14	0.00	2.70	1.24
simulation	LAA	1	Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	4.2	8	3	3	0	4	1	22	84	5.79	7.20	1.62
simulation	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	16	0.00	0.00	0.50
simulation	LAA	3	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	0	5	17	0.00	2.00	0.81
simulation	LAA	4	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	18	0.00	3.05	1.26
simulation	LAA	5	Luke Murphy	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	20	0.00	3.38	1.69

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
KC	Seth Lugo	Starter	6.0	4	6	2	6	26	102
KC	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	19
KC	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	2	0	1	4	16
KC	Nate Pearson	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	1	1	3	14
KC	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
LAA	Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	4.2	3	8	0	4	22	84
LAA	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	2	5	17
LAA	Ben Joyce	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	16
LAA	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	18
LAA	Luke Murphy	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	20

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260814_MIL@LAD

20260814_MIL@LAD.json • 2026-08-14

MIL 2 - LAD 5

ERROR

Final simulation is close, but errors remain. Risk score: 40.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 1WARN 0PASS 99INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
ERROR	Boxscore Crosscheck Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 1E / 0W	LAD	simulation:LAD PA=40 != MIL BF=42.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
ERROR	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD		PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=40 != MIL BF=42.	40	42

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
ERROR	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=40 != MIL BF=42.	40	42
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=14).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=4; Andy Pages: AB current=5 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Tommy Edman: H current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Enrique Hernández: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Hunter Feduccia: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=40; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=3, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=12; HBP: current=0, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=4; Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: AB current=5 box=4, R current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Luis Lara: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; David Hamilton: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; William Contreras: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 14.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match LAD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=46 matches LAD BF=46.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.547 -> 0.530 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.546742, 'sample_size': 216, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5139, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.530321, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.475/0.650.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 11 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 7, LAD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 2 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'MIL', 'h2h_net_margin': 11, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-05-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-05-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260813', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51095, 'artifact': '20260813_MIL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 2 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.2051, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.276, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0402, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260814_MIL@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.75, 'home_run_delta': 0.0437, 'away_run_delta': -0.0437, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02814152510980911}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.027473893103385882}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02705012314382783}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02640838365323376}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02490185014940545}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05396038290222342, '1': 0.09122977433681508, '2': 0.13119092081165565, '3': 0.16046361129059664, '4': 0.16693789977718984, '5': 0.14771987475046428, '6': 0.11118047315970758, '7': 0.0711743823547288, '8': 0.03875471058957695, '9': 0.017948612887669226, '10': 0.007070382114305686, '11': 0.002368975025066809}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05646034430237763, '1': 0.09524466914938882, '2': 0.13605502601866537, '3': 0.1645755286250455, '4': 0.16857481223478485, '5': 0.14621666274713666, '6': 0.10739345312659213, '7': 0.0667937002575508, '8': 0.03517790377139687, '9': 0.015688490774399787, '10': 0.005924737776313463, '11': 0.0018946712163481266}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0868, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.276, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.0402}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 2 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.2051, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.276, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0402, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 196.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 196.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 3 - 4 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 2 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 2-5 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 14.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match LAD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=46 matches LAD BF=46.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.547 -> 0.530 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.546742, 'sample_size': 216, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5139, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.530321, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.475/0.650.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 11 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 7, LAD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 2 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'MIL', 'h2h_net_margin': 11, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-05-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-05-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260813', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51095, 'artifact': '20260813_MIL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 2 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.2051, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.276, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0402, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260814_MIL@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.75, 'home_run_delta': 0.0437, 'away_run_delta': -0.0437, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02814152510980911}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.027473893103385882}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02705012314382783}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02640838365323376}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02490185014940545}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05396038290222342, '1': 0.09122977433681508, '2': 0.13119092081165565, '3': 0.16046361129059664, '4': 0.16693789977718984, '5': 0.14771987475046428, '6': 0.11118047315970758, '7': 0.0711743823547288, '8': 0.03875471058957695, '9': 0.017948612887669226, '10': 0.007070382114305686, '11': 0.002368975025066809}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05646034430237763, '1': 0.09524466914938882, '2': 0.13605502601866537, '3': 0.1645755286250455, '4': 0.16857481223478485, '5': 0.14621666274713666, '6': 0.10739345312659213, '7': 0.0667937002575508, '8': 0.03517790377139687, '9': 0.015688490774399787, '10': 0.005924737776313463, '11': 0.0018946712163481266}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0868, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.276, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.0402}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 2 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.2051, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.276, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0402, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 196.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 196.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 3 - 4 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 2 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 2-5 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=14).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=4; Andy Pages: AB current=5 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Tommy Edman: H current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Enrique Hernández: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Hunter Feduccia: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=40; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=3, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=12; HBP: current=0, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=4; Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: AB current=5 box=4, R current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Luis Lara: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; David Hamilton: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; William Contreras: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.0854082107543945	4.960665225982666		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R	H
MIL	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7
LAD	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	5	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIL	batting	34	9	0	0	0	3	3	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		6			2		5	3	14					11.0	5	0	0
current	LAD	batting	34	9	0	0	0	2	4	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		7			0		2	3	12					11.0	2	0	0
simulation	MIL	batting	40	7	3	0	0	2	2	3	12	0	3
simulation	MIL	pitching		6			2		5	3	14					11.0	5	42	176
simulation	LAD	batting	37	6	1	0	2	5	5	3	14	0	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		7			0		2	3	12					11.0	2	46	196

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	MIL		3B	Andrew Vaughn	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		1B	Jake Bauers	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		DH	Christian Yelich	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		RF	Luis Lara	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		2B	David Hamilton	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		C	William Contreras	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		SS	Joey Ortiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	LAD		CF	Andy Pages	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		2B	Tommy Edman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Enrique Hernández	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		C	Hunter Feduccia	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIL	1	CF	Garrett Mitchell	6	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	0.250
simulation	MIL	2	LF	Jackson Chourio	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	MIL	3	1B	Jake Bauers	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	4	3B	Andrew Vaughn	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	5	DH	Christian Yelich	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	MIL	6	C	William Contreras	5	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	MIL	7	RF	Luis Lara	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	8	2B	David Hamilton	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	9	SS	Joey Ortiz	5	5	3	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.600
simulation	LAD	1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	2	CF	Andy Pages	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	3	LF	Teoscar Hernández	5	5	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	LAD	4	SS	Mookie Betts	5	5	2	0	2	1	4	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	LAD	5	2B	Tommy Edman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	6	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	7	3B	Max Muncy	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	8	1B	Enrique Hernández	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	9	C	Hunter Feduccia	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIL	1	Robert Gasser	Starter	5.2	5	2	2	1	7	1	0	0	3.18	4.57	1.22
current	MIL	2	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.53	1.43
current	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.05	1.03
current	MIL	4	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.69	0.79
current	MIL	7	Chad Patrick	Reliever	0.1	1	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	81.00
current	MIL	8	JoJo Romero	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00
current	LAD	1	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Starter	6.2	4	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	1.35	2.65	0.89
current	LAD	2	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00	9.26	2.14
current	LAD	3	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	5.73	1.45
current	LAD	4	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.25	0.92
current	LAD	5	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.79	1.21
simulation	MIL	1	Robert Gasser	Starter	5.2	5	2	2	1	7	1	23	90	3.18	4.57	1.22
simulation	MIL	2	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	1.69	0.79
simulation	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	17	0.00	2.05	1.03
simulation	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	16	0.00	3.53	1.43
simulation	MIL	5	Chad Patrick	Reliever	0.1	1	3	3	1	0	1	3	19	81.00	3.09	1.17
simulation	MIL	6	JoJo Romero	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	3.35	1.30
simulation	LAD	1	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Starter	6.2	4	1	1	2	6	0	26	115	1.35	2.65	0.89
simulation	LAD	2	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	0	5	19	9.00	9.26	2.14
simulation	LAD	3	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	2.25	0.92
simulation	LAD	4	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	1	2	0	8	33	0.00	5.73	1.45
simulation	LAD	5	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	15	0.00	2.79	1.21

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIL	Robert Gasser	Starter	5.2	2	5	1	7	23	90
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	5	16
MIL	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	17
MIL	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17
MIL	Chad Patrick	Reliever	0.1	3	1	1	0	3	19
MIL	JoJo Romero	Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17
LAD	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Starter	6.2	1	4	2	6	26	115
LAD	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	2	5	19
LAD	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	1	2	8	33
LAD	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	3	14
LAD	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	0	1	4	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	error	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	0	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	0	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	0	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	error	1	1	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	0	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260814_TEX@OAK

20260814_TEX@OAK.json • 2026-08-14

TEX 6 - OAK 1

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 99INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 4-3, final 6-1 (delta 4).

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 4-3, final 6-1 (delta 4).

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 4-3, final 6-1 (delta 4).
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; R: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeff McNeil: BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Jacob Wilson: AB current=4 box=5; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tyler Soderstrom: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Henry Bolte: AB current=3 box=4; Lawrence Butler: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jonah Heim: SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=3, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Justin Foscue: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cody Freeman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Elias Díaz: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match TEX pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match TEX pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=41 matches TEX BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match OAK pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match OAK pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match OAK pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=36 matches OAK BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.655 -> 0.603 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.654818, 'sample_size': 259, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5521, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.603459, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.406/0.630.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 6, OAK 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 6 - OAK 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TEX; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': -7, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-04-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-04-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'OAK'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TEX', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'TEX', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'TEX 6 - 1 OAK', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.614, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 1}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1214, 'winner': 'TEX', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260814_TEX@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@OAK.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0288, 'away_run_delta': -0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.028236351266589556}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02801558761304322}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02599620810372493}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.025792958830292076}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025191144829684386}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07377642674166654, '1': 0.12257355234771343, '2': 0.1672694720735183, '3': 0.18748967550213672, '4': 0.17261510085478188, '5': 0.13053319644969294, '6': 0.08107816619119604, '7': 0.04136448479326007, '8': 0.01733373206620095, '9': 0.0059661929798332765}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03971759887475355, '1': 0.0680091869093175, '2': 0.10160236580275596, '3': 0.13243162229678884, '4': 0.15060216617777314, '5': 0.14942469518927692, '6': 0.12934962658853064, '7': 0.09769213945298388, '8': 0.06437328957924851, '9': 0.037008665547081154, '10': 0.018563197664646074, '11': 0.0081236984356361, '12': 0.0031017474812079235}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.3678, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.664, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.1214}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'TEX 6 - 1 OAK', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.614, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 1}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1214, 'winner': 'TEX', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 4 - 3 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 6 - 1 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 6-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TEX wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 6-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match TEX pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match TEX pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=41 matches TEX BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match OAK pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match OAK pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match OAK pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=36 matches OAK BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.655 -> 0.603 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.654818, 'sample_size': 259, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5521, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.603459, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.406/0.630.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 6, OAK 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 6 - OAK 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TEX; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': -7, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-04-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-04-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'OAK'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TEX', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'TEX', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'TEX 6 - 1 OAK', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.614, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 1}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1214, 'winner': 'TEX', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260814_TEX@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@OAK.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0288, 'away_run_delta': -0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.028236351266589556}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02801558761304322}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02599620810372493}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.025792958830292076}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025191144829684386}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07377642674166654, '1': 0.12257355234771343, '2': 0.1672694720735183, '3': 0.18748967550213672, '4': 0.17261510085478188, '5': 0.13053319644969294, '6': 0.08107816619119604, '7': 0.04136448479326007, '8': 0.01733373206620095, '9': 0.0059661929798332765}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03971759887475355, '1': 0.0680091869093175, '2': 0.10160236580275596, '3': 0.13243162229678884, '4': 0.15060216617777314, '5': 0.14942469518927692, '6': 0.12934962658853064, '7': 0.09769213945298388, '8': 0.06437328957924851, '9': 0.037008665547081154, '10': 0.018563197664646074, '11': 0.0081236984356361, '12': 0.0031017474812079235}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.3678, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.664, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.1214}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'TEX 6 - 1 OAK', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.614, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 1}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1214, 'winner': 'TEX', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 4 - 3 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 6 - 1 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 6-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TEX wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 6-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; R: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeff McNeil: BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Jacob Wilson: AB current=4 box=5; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tyler Soderstrom: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Henry Bolte: AB current=3 box=4; Lawrence Butler: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jonah Heim: SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=3, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Justin Foscue: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cody Freeman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Elias Díaz: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.595421314239502	4.5631890296936035		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	1		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	2	0	0	4	0	0	0	6	6
OAK	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TEX	batting	32	9	0	0	0	3	3	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		10			0		1	3	8					9.0	1	0	0
current	OAK	batting	31	9	0	0	0	1	2	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		6			3		6	3	2					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	TEX	batting	33	6	1	0	3	6	6	3	2	0	0
simulation	TEX	pitching		10			0		1	3	8					9.0	1	41	165
simulation	OAK	batting	37	10	2	0	0	1	1	3	8	0	1
simulation	OAK	pitching		6			3		6	3	2					9.0	6	36	144

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TEX		3B	Ezequiel Duran	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		RF	Brandon Nimmo	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		DH	Justin Foscue	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		2B	Cody Freeman	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		LF	Wyatt Langford	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		C	Elias Díaz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		SS	Corey Seager	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		CF	Evan Carter	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		1B	Jeff McNeil	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	OAK		SS	Jacob Wilson	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	OAK		DH	Carlos Cortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		LF	Tyler Soderstrom	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		3B	Zack Gelof	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		RF	Lawrence Butler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		C	Jonah Heim	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		2B	Donovan Walton	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	TEX	1	LF	Wyatt Langford	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	2	RF	Brandon Nimmo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	3	SS	Corey Seager	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	TEX	4	3B	Ezequiel Duran	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	5	1B	Jake Burger	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	6	DH	Justin Foscue	4	3	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	TEX	7	2B	Cody Freeman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	8	C	Elias Díaz	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	9	CF	Evan Carter	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	1	1B	Jeff McNeil	5	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
simulation	OAK	2	SS	Jacob Wilson	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	OAK	3	LF	Tyler Soderstrom	5	4	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	4	3B	Zack Gelof	5	5	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	OAK	5	RF	Lawrence Butler	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	6	DH	Carlos Cortes	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	7	2B	Donovan Walton	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	8	C	Jonah Heim	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	9	CF	Henry Bolte	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TEX	1	Kumar Rocker	Starter	5.0	6	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	0.00	4.46	1.38
current	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.33	0.67
current	TEX	3	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.78	1.46
current	TEX	4	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.19	1.19
current	TEX	5	Robby Ahlstrom	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13.50	4.10	1.06
current	OAK	1	Gage Jump	Starter	4.2	3	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	3.86	4.46	1.46
current	OAK	2	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.42	1.37
current	OAK	3	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.82	1.23
current	OAK	4	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	4	4	1	0	2	0	0	36.00	3.63	1.58
current	OAK	5	Scott Blewett	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.31	1.37
simulation	TEX	1	Kumar Rocker	Starter	5.0	6	0	0	3	3	0	24	96	0.00	4.46	1.38
simulation	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	5	21	0.00	1.33	0.67
simulation	TEX	3	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	19	0.00	3.19	1.19
simulation	TEX	4	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	2.78	1.46
simulation	TEX	5	Robby Ahlstrom	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	0	3	13	13.50	4.10	1.06
simulation	OAK	1	Gage Jump	Starter	4.2	3	2	2	2	2	1	19	91	3.86	4.46	1.46
simulation	OAK	2	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	4	4	1	0	2	7	15	36.00	3.63	1.58
simulation	OAK	3	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	15	0.00	4.82	1.23
simulation	OAK	4	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	20	0.00	3.42	1.37
simulation	OAK	5	Scott Blewett	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	0.00	2.31	1.37

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TEX	Kumar Rocker	Starter	5.0	0	6	3	3	24	96
TEX	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	5	21
TEX	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
TEX	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	19
TEX	Robby Ahlstrom	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	0	1	3	13
OAK	Gage Jump	Starter	4.2	2	3	2	2	19	91
OAK	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	20
OAK	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
OAK	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	3	1	0	7	15
OAK	Scott Blewett	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	3

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	0	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	0	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	0	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	0	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	warning	1	0	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.