MLB JSON Audit Report

20260812_KC@LAD

20260812_KC@LAD.json • 2026-08-12

KC 3 - LAD 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=41; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=5, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Carter Jensen: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Tyler Tolbert: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Starling Marte: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=39; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Mookie Betts: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=2; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Hunter Feduccia: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match LAD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=47 matches LAD BF=47.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match KC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match KC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=45 matches KC BF=45.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.673 -> 0.610 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.673038, 'sample_size': 236, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5466, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.609819, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.642/0.847.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 11 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 8, LAD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 3 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-08-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260811', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260811_KC@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260810', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260810_KC@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1791, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.342, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5413, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-12.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260812_KC@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': 2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.015, 'away_run_delta': -0.015, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025951058611837816}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025073741840545113}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02493875323911879}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024095659059452885}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023811384910048708}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03389994214368121, '1': 0.058355574919962676, '2': 0.08857577961484926, '3': 0.11854871513822154, '4': 0.13990329899332274, '5': 0.1455822060290564, '6': 0.1335789031061181, '7': 0.10807287032836592, '8': 0.07709828822317288, '9': 0.04849779815422098, '10': 0.02689976859322363, '11': 0.013156013263025767, '12': 0.005673476987769148, '13': 0.002157364505009872}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06592271314156996, '1': 0.11028308137466614, '2': 0.15364300590544608, '3': 0.17825707769985508, '4': 0.1722308139467313, '5': 0.13858142082556885, '6': 0.0928601219148528, '7': 0.051818349216861063, '8': 0.02408063758882396, '9': 0.009319282437007003, '10': 0.00300349594861771}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 2.3755, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.008, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.5413}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1791, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.342, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5413, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 194.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 206.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 194.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 206.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 3 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 3-5 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match LAD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=47 matches LAD BF=47.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match KC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match KC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=45 matches KC BF=45.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.673 -> 0.610 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.673038, 'sample_size': 236, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5466, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.609819, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.642/0.847.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 11 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 8, LAD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 3 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-08-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260811', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260811_KC@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260810', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260810_KC@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1791, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.342, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5413, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-12.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260812_KC@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': 2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.015, 'away_run_delta': -0.015, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025951058611837816}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025073741840545113}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02493875323911879}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024095659059452885}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023811384910048708}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03389994214368121, '1': 0.058355574919962676, '2': 0.08857577961484926, '3': 0.11854871513822154, '4': 0.13990329899332274, '5': 0.1455822060290564, '6': 0.1335789031061181, '7': 0.10807287032836592, '8': 0.07709828822317288, '9': 0.04849779815422098, '10': 0.02689976859322363, '11': 0.013156013263025767, '12': 0.005673476987769148, '13': 0.002157364505009872}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06592271314156996, '1': 0.11028308137466614, '2': 0.15364300590544608, '3': 0.17825707769985508, '4': 0.1722308139467313, '5': 0.13858142082556885, '6': 0.0928601219148528, '7': 0.051818349216861063, '8': 0.02408063758882396, '9': 0.009319282437007003, '10': 0.00300349594861771}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 2.3755, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.008, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.5413}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1791, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.342, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5413, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 194.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 206.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 194.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 206.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 3 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 3-5 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=41; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=5, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Carter Jensen: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Tyler Tolbert: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Starling Marte: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=39; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Mookie Betts: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=2; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Hunter Feduccia: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.389464855194092	4.54222297668457		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	5	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R	H
KC	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	8
LAD	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	KC	batting	32	9	0	0	0	1	1	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		6			3		5	6	12					11.0	5	0	0
current	LAD	batting	35	9	0	0	0	4	6	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		8			0		3	5	12					11.0	3	0	0
simulation	KC	batting	41	8	3	1	0	3	3	5	12	0	1
simulation	KC	pitching		6			3		5	6	12					11.0	5	45	194
simulation	LAD	batting	39	6	2	0	3	5	5	6	12	0	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		8			0		3	5	12					11.0	3	47	206

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	KC		2B	Nick Loftin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		C	Salvador Perez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		1B	Jac Caglianone	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		DH	Carter Jensen	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	KC		CF	Tyler Tolbert	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		3B	Josh Rojas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	KC		RF	Starling Marte	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
current	LAD		CF	Andy Pages	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		C	Hunter Feduccia	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		2B	Miguel Rojas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	KC	1	2B	Nick Loftin	6	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	2	2	0	0.250
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	6	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	KC	3	1B	Jac Caglianone	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	KC	4	C	Salvador Perez	5	5	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	KC	5	RF	Starling Marte	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	6	DH	Carter Jensen	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	KC	7	LF	Isaac Collins	5	4	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	KC	8	CF	Tyler Tolbert	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	KC	9	3B	Josh Rojas	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	2	CF	Andy Pages	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	3	1B	Freddie Freeman	5	4	2	0	0	2	1	2	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAD	4	RF	Kyle Tucker	5	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	5	SS	Mookie Betts	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	6	3B	Max Muncy	5	5	2	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	LAD	7	LF	Teoscar Hernández	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	LAD	8	C	Hunter Feduccia	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	9	2B	Miguel Rojas	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	KC	1	Daniel Lynch IV	Starter	5.2	3	2	2	4	8	2	0	0	3.18	2.45	1.01
current	KC	2	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.26	1.22
current	KC	3	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.77	1.42
current	KC	4	Nate Pearson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.70	1.24
current	KC	5	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	6.17	1.56
current	KC	7	Craig Kimbrel	Reliever	0.1	1	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	54.00
current	KC	8	Jose Cuas	Reliever	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	27.00
current	LAD	1	Eric Lauer	Starter	5.1	6	1	1	3	6	0	0	0	1.69	4.89	1.26
current	LAD	2	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.81	1.18
current	LAD	3	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	2.1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	3.86	7.36	1.91
current	LAD	4	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.27	0.92
current	LAD	5	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.73	1.45
current	LAD	6	Jack Dreyer	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	27.00	3.14	1.01
simulation	KC	1	Daniel Lynch IV	Starter	5.2	3	2	2	4	8	2	24	96	3.18	2.45	1.01
simulation	KC	2	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	20	0.00	6.17	1.56
simulation	KC	3	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	5	21	0.00	4.26	1.22
simulation	KC	4	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	3.77	1.42
simulation	KC	5	Nate Pearson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	14	0.00	2.70	1.24
simulation	KC	6	Craig Kimbrel	Reliever	0.1	1	2	2	1	1	1	3	20	54.00	4.81	1.34
simulation	KC	7	Jose Cuas	Reliever	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	0	3	7	27.00	2.00	1.33
simulation	LAD	1	Eric Lauer	Starter	5.1	6	1	1	3	6	0	25	109	1.69	4.89	1.26
simulation	LAD	2	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	2.1	1	1	1	0	1	0	8	37	3.86	7.36	1.91
simulation	LAD	3	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	2.27	0.92
simulation	LAD	4	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	11	0.00	5.73	1.45
simulation	LAD	5	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	0	5	21	0.00	2.81	1.18
simulation	LAD	6	Jack Dreyer	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	1	1	1	1	0	3	13	27.00	3.14	1.01

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
KC	Daniel Lynch IV	Starter	5.2	2	3	4	8	24	96
KC	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	2	5	21
KC	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
KC	Nate Pearson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
KC	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	20
KC	Craig Kimbrel	Reliever	0.1	2	1	1	1	3	20
KC	Jose Cuas	Reliever	0.1	1	1	1	0	3	7
LAD	Eric Lauer	Starter	5.1	1	6	3	6	25	109
LAD	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	2	5	21
LAD	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	2.1	1	1	0	1	8	37
LAD	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15
LAD	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	3	11
LAD	Jack Dreyer	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	1	1	1	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260812_TEX@LAA

20260812_TEX@LAA.json • 2026-08-12

TEX 5 - LAA 3