MLB JSON Audit Report

20260811_COL@ARI

20260811_COL@ARI.json • 2026-08-11

COL 3 - ARI 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=33; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=6, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gabriel Moreno: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Lars Nootbaar: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Ildemaro Vargas: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Nolan Arenado: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Ketel Marte: AB current=5 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; James McCann: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Carrigg: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Willi Castro: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Beck: AB current=3 box=4; Connor Norby: BB current=0 box=1; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Hunter Goodman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Tovar: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match COL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match COL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=35 matches COL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match ARI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match ARI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=38 matches ARI BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.855 -> 0.741 at weight 0.420.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.855345, 'sample_size': 84, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5833, 'empirical_weight': 0.42, 'blended_confidence': 0.741086, 'published_confidence': 0.66, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.443/0.615.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 6, ARI 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 3 - ARI 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ARI.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 18, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260810', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5693, 'artifact': '20260810_COL@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-11.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260811_COL@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@ARI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 18.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 18.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.1038, 'away_run_delta': -0.1038, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.033523636853903215}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.03194819087500459}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.031074966490638248}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029949008773540058}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028541552725441875}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03290328699947106, '1': 0.05669247337465325, '2': 0.08629114036868621, '3': 0.11602770349985043, '4': 0.13781988050599778, '5': 0.14461612688517345, '6': 0.1340529166494481, '7': 0.10977172615825424, '8': 0.07940711250375432, '9': 0.05074380142632844, '10': 0.02864582129426384, '11': 0.014285460415995311, '12': 0.006293350073337883, '13': 0.00244919984478586}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.12259106238437643, '1': 0.19463999973609766, '2': 0.23181119267923206, '3': 0.20709314665382964, '4': 0.13877974079993685, '5': 0.06976143998006423, '6': 0.02630472830551817, '7': 0.007440141990197478, '8': 0.0015785474707473465}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.1836, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.392, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.9065}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'COL 2 - 6 ARI', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'COL 3 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0917, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.567, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9065, 'winner': 'ARI', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 3 - 5 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 3 - 5 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ARI, simulation=ARI, published=ARI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match COL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match COL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=35 matches COL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match ARI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match ARI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=38 matches ARI BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.855 -> 0.741 at weight 0.420.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.855345, 'sample_size': 84, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5833, 'empirical_weight': 0.42, 'blended_confidence': 0.741086, 'published_confidence': 0.66, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.443/0.615.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 6, ARI 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 3 - ARI 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ARI.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 18, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260810', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5693, 'artifact': '20260810_COL@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-11.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260811_COL@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@ARI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 18.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 18.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.1038, 'away_run_delta': -0.1038, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.033523636853903215}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.03194819087500459}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.031074966490638248}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029949008773540058}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028541552725441875}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03290328699947106, '1': 0.05669247337465325, '2': 0.08629114036868621, '3': 0.11602770349985043, '4': 0.13781988050599778, '5': 0.14461612688517345, '6': 0.1340529166494481, '7': 0.10977172615825424, '8': 0.07940711250375432, '9': 0.05074380142632844, '10': 0.02864582129426384, '11': 0.014285460415995311, '12': 0.006293350073337883, '13': 0.00244919984478586}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.12259106238437643, '1': 0.19463999973609766, '2': 0.23181119267923206, '3': 0.20709314665382964, '4': 0.13877974079993685, '5': 0.06976143998006423, '6': 0.02630472830551817, '7': 0.007440141990197478, '8': 0.0015785474707473465}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.1836, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.392, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.9065}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'COL 2 - 6 ARI', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'COL 3 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0917, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.567, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9065, 'winner': 'ARI', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 3 - 5 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 3 - 5 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ARI, simulation=ARI, published=ARI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=33; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=6, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gabriel Moreno: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Lars Nootbaar: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Ildemaro Vargas: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Nolan Arenado: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Ketel Marte: AB current=5 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; James McCann: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Carrigg: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Willi Castro: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Beck: AB current=3 box=4; Connor Norby: BB current=0 box=1; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Hunter Goodman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Tovar: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.835237979888916	5.177890777587891		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	2	5	0.660	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	2	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	3	6
ARI	0	0	3	0	0	2	0	0	0	5	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	COL	batting	31	9	0	0	0	4	4	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		9			0		5	2	12					8.0	5	0	0
current	ARI	batting	36	9	0	0	0	6	5	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		6			1		3	5	5					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	COL	batting	32	6	1	0	1	3	3	5	5	1	0
simulation	COL	pitching		9			0		5	2	12					8.0	5	35	152
simulation	ARI	batting	33	9	2	1	0	5	5	2	12	0	0
simulation	ARI	pitching		6			1		3	5	5					9.0	3	38	154

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	COL		CF	Cole Carrigg	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	COL		1B	Willi Castro	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		DH	Mickey Moniak	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		RF	Jordan Beck	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		2B	Connor Norby	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		LF	Jake McCarthy	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		C	Hunter Goodman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		3B	Kyle Karros	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ARI		DH	Gabriel Moreno	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		RF	Corbin Carroll	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	ARI		LF	Lars Nootbaar	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	ARI		1B	Tim Tawa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ARI		SS	Ildemaro Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		3B	Nolan Arenado	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		2B	Ketel Marte	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	ARI		C	James McCann	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	COL	1	LF	Jake McCarthy	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.400
simulation	COL	2	3B	Kyle Karros	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.500
simulation	COL	3	CF	Cole Carrigg	4	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	4	C	Hunter Goodman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	COL	5	1B	Willi Castro	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	COL	6	DH	Mickey Moniak	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	COL	7	RF	Jordan Beck	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	COL	8	2B	Connor Norby	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	COL	9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	1	LF	Lars Nootbaar	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	ARI	2	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	ARI	3	DH	Gabriel Moreno	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	ARI	4	2B	Ketel Marte	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	ARI	5	3B	Nolan Arenado	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	2	0.250
simulation	ARI	6	C	James McCann	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ARI	7	1B	Tim Tawa	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	ARI	8	SS	Ildemaro Vargas	4	4	2	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	ARI	9	CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	3	2	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	COL	1	Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	2	9	0	0	0	4.76	4.51	1.26
current	COL	2	Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.64	1.17
current	COL	3	Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	18.00	5.09	1.58
current	COL	4	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.29	1.57
current	ARI	1	Mitch Bratt	Starter	4.2	4	2	2	4	4	1	0	0	3.86	3.90	1.52
current	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.74	0.68
current	ARI	3	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.80	1.11
current	ARI	4	Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.54	0.98
current	ARI	5	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	3.04	1.12
simulation	COL	1	Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	2	9	0	25	100	4.76	4.51	1.26
simulation	COL	2	Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	6	22	18.00	5.09	1.58
simulation	COL	3	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	15	0.00	5.29	1.57
simulation	COL	4	Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	15	0.00	2.64	1.17
simulation	ARI	1	Mitch Bratt	Starter	4.2	4	2	2	4	4	1	22	87	3.86	3.90	1.52
simulation	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	19	0.00	1.74	0.68
simulation	ARI	3	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4	16	9.00	3.04	1.12
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	2.80	1.11
simulation	ARI	5	Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.54	0.98

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	5.2	3	6	2	9	25	100
COL	Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	15
COL	Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	0	0	6	22
COL	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	15
ARI	Mitch Bratt	Starter	4.2	2	4	4	4	22	87
ARI	Brandyn Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	1	5	19
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
ARI	Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
ARI	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260811_HOU@SF

20260811_HOU@SF.json • 2026-08-11

HOU 7 - SF 2

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=35; H: current=10, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=1, sim=3; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeremy Peña: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nelson Velázquez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Yordan Alvarez: H current=2 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Daulton Varsho: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=2; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Rafael Devers: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Victor Bericoto: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Osleivis Basabe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Cavanaugh: H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Willy Adames: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Drew Gilbert: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match SF pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=40 matches SF BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match HOU pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match HOU pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=36 matches HOU BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.831 -> 0.727 at weight 0.420.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.831063, 'sample_size': 84, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5833, 'empirical_weight': 0.42, 'blended_confidence': 0.727002, 'published_confidence': 0.66, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.487/0.666.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 9, SF 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 7 - SF 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for HOU.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260810', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.611, 'artifact': '20260810_HOU@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-11.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260811_HOU@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@SF.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.025, 'away_run_delta': 0.025, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.025936014970504167}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.02548655373974317}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.023625761892874683}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023564533822280548}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.023315340304958465}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0754619937460957, '1': 0.12518364554336373, '2': 0.17005444926402175, '3': 0.18916879120029495, '4': 0.17231856256806513, '5': 0.12853923851674806, '6': 0.07851641599950542, '7': 0.03927410500811559, '8': 0.016086931465878352, '9': 0.005395866687911472}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.027319106395670697, '1': 0.047321336490698765, '2': 0.07318313083327302, '3': 0.1010481667975234, '4': 0.1245688238147594, '5': 0.13710514723881012, '6': 0.13472916741724908, '7': 0.11820421504125073, '8': 0.09259078613941231, '9': 0.06475391792612623, '10': 0.04043223979554312, '11': 0.022539953769719304, '12': 0.011218678760161993, '13': 0.004985329579801725}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3782, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.952, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.579}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'HOU 5 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'HOU 7 - 2 SF', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.141, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.302, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner_supported', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner_supported', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.579, 'winner': 'HOU', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 7 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 7 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 7-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=HOU, simulation=HOU, published=HOU.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: HOU wins 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: HOU wins 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-2, final 7-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: HOU wins 7-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match SF pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=40 matches SF BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match HOU pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match HOU pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=36 matches HOU BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.831 -> 0.727 at weight 0.420.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.831063, 'sample_size': 84, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5833, 'empirical_weight': 0.42, 'blended_confidence': 0.727002, 'published_confidence': 0.66, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.487/0.666.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 9, SF 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 7 - SF 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for HOU.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260810', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.611, 'artifact': '20260810_HOU@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-11.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260811_HOU@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@SF.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.025, 'away_run_delta': 0.025, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.025936014970504167}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.02548655373974317}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.023625761892874683}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023564533822280548}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.023315340304958465}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0754619937460957, '1': 0.12518364554336373, '2': 0.17005444926402175, '3': 0.18916879120029495, '4': 0.17231856256806513, '5': 0.12853923851674806, '6': 0.07851641599950542, '7': 0.03927410500811559, '8': 0.016086931465878352, '9': 0.005395866687911472}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.027319106395670697, '1': 0.047321336490698765, '2': 0.07318313083327302, '3': 0.1010481667975234, '4': 0.1245688238147594, '5': 0.13710514723881012, '6': 0.13472916741724908, '7': 0.11820421504125073, '8': 0.09259078613941231, '9': 0.06475391792612623, '10': 0.04043223979554312, '11': 0.022539953769719304, '12': 0.011218678760161993, '13': 0.004985329579801725}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3782, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.952, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.579}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'HOU 5 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'HOU 7 - 2 SF', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.141, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.302, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner_supported', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner_supported', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.579, 'winner': 'HOU', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 7 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 7 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 7-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=HOU, simulation=HOU, published=HOU.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: HOU wins 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: HOU wins 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-2, final 7-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: HOU wins 7-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=35; H: current=10, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=1, sim=3; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeremy Peña: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nelson Velázquez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Yordan Alvarez: H current=2 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Daulton Varsho: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=2; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Rafael Devers: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Victor Bericoto: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Osleivis Basabe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Cavanaugh: H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Willy Adames: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Drew Gilbert: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.912042617797852	3.9717018604278564		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	3	0.660	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	1	0	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	7	9
SF	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	HOU	batting	38	10	0	0	0	5	5	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		5			0		2	4	3					9.0	2	0	0
current	SF	batting	32	8	0	0	0	3	0	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		9			3		7	3	9					9.0	7	0	0
simulation	HOU	batting	35	9	3	0	3	7	7	3	9	1	1
simulation	HOU	pitching		5			0		2	4	3					9.0	2	36	162
simulation	SF	batting	32	5	1	0	0	2	2	4	3	0	0
simulation	SF	pitching		9			3		7	3	9					9.0	7	40	156

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	HOU		SS	Jeremy Peña	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	HOU		2B	Jose Altuve	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		LF	Nelson Velázquez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	HOU		DH	Yordan Alvarez	0	5	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.400
current	HOU		RF	Cam Smith	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		1B	Christian Walker	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		CF	Daulton Varsho	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		C	Yainer Diaz	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		DH	Rafael Devers	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		1B	Bryce Eldridge	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SF		LF	Victor Bericoto	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		2B	Osleivis Basabe	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		C	Drew Cavanaugh	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		SS	Willy Adames	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.200
current	SF		CF	Drew Gilbert	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		3B	Christian Koss	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	1	SS	Jeremy Peña	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	HOU	3	3B	Isaac Paredes	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	4	2B	Jose Altuve	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	HOU	5	1B	Christian Walker	4	4	2	0	2	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	HOU	6	LF	Nelson Velázquez	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	7	CF	Daulton Varsho	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	8	RF	Cam Smith	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.000
simulation	HOU	9	C	Yainer Diaz	4	4	2	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	SF	1	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SF	2	SS	Willy Adames	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SF	3	1B	Bryce Eldridge	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	SF	4	DH	Rafael Devers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SF	5	LF	Victor Bericoto	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	SF	6	CF	Drew Gilbert	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	7	2B	Osleivis Basabe	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	8	C	Drew Cavanaugh	4	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	SF	9	3B	Christian Koss	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	HOU	1	Hunter Brown	Starter	5.2	3	2	2	3	2	0	0	0	3.18	3.53	1.24
current	HOU	2	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.29	1.36
current	HOU	3	Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.67	0.63
current	HOU	4	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.16	0.87
current	SF	1	Carson Whisenhunt	Starter	4.1	7	5	5	1	6	2	0	0	10.38	7.25	1.84
current	SF	2	JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	6.75	3.40	1.20
current	SF	3	Dylan Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	9.00	3.09	1.29
current	SF	4	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.88	1.16
current	SF	5	Sam Hentges	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.60	1.55
current	SF	6	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.62	1.50
simulation	HOU	1	Hunter Brown	Starter	5.2	3	2	2	3	2	0	23	104	3.18	3.53	1.24
simulation	HOU	2	Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	0	6	23	0.00	0.67	0.63
simulation	HOU	3	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	17	0.00	2.16	0.87
simulation	HOU	4	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	18	0.00	4.29	1.36
simulation	SF	1	Carson Whisenhunt	Starter	4.1	7	5	5	1	6	2	21	80	10.38	7.25	1.84
simulation	SF	2	Dylan Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	5	20	9.00	3.09	1.29
simulation	SF	3	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	2.88	1.16
simulation	SF	4	JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	5	10	6.75	3.40	1.20
simulation	SF	5	Sam Hentges	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	2.60	1.55
simulation	SF	6	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	16	0.00	5.62	1.50

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
HOU	Hunter Brown	Starter	5.2	2	3	3	2	23	104
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	18
HOU	Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	2	0	0	6	23
HOU	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
SF	Carson Whisenhunt	Starter	4.1	5	7	1	6	21	80
SF	JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	0	1	5	10
SF	Dylan Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	5	20
SF	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	14
SF	Sam Hentges	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
SF	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	1	0	3	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260811_KC@LAD

20260811_KC@LAD.json • 2026-08-11

KC 5 - LAD 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=39; H: current=9, sim=13; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Tyler Tolbert: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; John Rave: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=33; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Andy Pages: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Tommy Edman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ben Rortvedt: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match LAD pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=40 matches LAD BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match KC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=36 matches KC BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.675 -> 0.616 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.674737, 'sample_size': 192, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5573, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.616019, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.487/0.666.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 13, LAD 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 5 - LAD 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'KC', 'opponent_team': 'LAD', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260810', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260810_KC@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'KC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.082, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.19, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4819, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-11.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260811_KC@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0083, 'away_run_delta': -0.0083, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026382473312983348}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02604154646442631}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025494108814579516}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02516466183393394}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023427647422982506}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03713116075327945, '1': 0.06372788722337766, '2': 0.09587049077924242, '3': 0.12641680680476775, '4': 0.14611308726768835, '5': 0.1480259488730143, '6': 0.13144710499689163, '7': 0.10231248498080721, '8': 0.06980245154977183, '9': 0.04174237488984506, '10': 0.021880037799918976, '11': 0.010052716086539747, '12': 0.004048398002243703, '13': 0.0014290499926121441}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06590046395865194, '1': 0.11024804555951828, '2': 0.15360332838786384, '3': 0.17822870593868542, '4': 0.17222729534029146, '5': 0.13860331239068588, '6': 0.0928950424187363, '7': 0.05185119449105373, '8': 0.024103066230000258, '9': 0.00933110599601657, '10': 0.0030084392884963517}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 2.366, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.16, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.4819}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.082, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.19, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4819, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 5 - 6 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 5 - 6 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match LAD pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=40 matches LAD BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match KC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=36 matches KC BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.675 -> 0.616 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.674737, 'sample_size': 192, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5573, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.616019, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.487/0.666.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 13, LAD 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 5 - LAD 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'KC', 'opponent_team': 'LAD', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260810', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260810_KC@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'KC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.082, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.19, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4819, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-11.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260811_KC@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0083, 'away_run_delta': -0.0083, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026382473312983348}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02604154646442631}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025494108814579516}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02516466183393394}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023427647422982506}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03713116075327945, '1': 0.06372788722337766, '2': 0.09587049077924242, '3': 0.12641680680476775, '4': 0.14611308726768835, '5': 0.1480259488730143, '6': 0.13144710499689163, '7': 0.10231248498080721, '8': 0.06980245154977183, '9': 0.04174237488984506, '10': 0.021880037799918976, '11': 0.010052716086539747, '12': 0.004048398002243703, '13': 0.0014290499926121441}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06590046395865194, '1': 0.11024804555951828, '2': 0.15360332838786384, '3': 0.17822870593868542, '4': 0.17222729534029146, '5': 0.13860331239068588, '6': 0.0928950424187363, '7': 0.05185119449105373, '8': 0.024103066230000258, '9': 0.00933110599601657, '10': 0.0030084392884963517}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 2.366, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.16, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.4819}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.082, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.19, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4819, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 5 - 6 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 5 - 6 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=39; H: current=9, sim=13; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Tyler Tolbert: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; John Rave: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=33; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Andy Pages: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Tommy Edman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ben Rortvedt: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.295497417449951	4.466613292694092		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	5	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	13
LAD	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	6	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	KC	batting	33	9	0	0	0	2	3	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		9			3		6	2	6					8.0	6	0	0
current	LAD	batting	35	9	0	0	0	5	5	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		13			0		5	0	4					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	KC	batting	39	13	3	0	0	5	5	0	4	1	0
simulation	KC	pitching		9			3		6	2	6					8.0	6	36	144
simulation	LAD	batting	33	9	1	0	3	6	6	2	6	0	1
simulation	LAD	pitching		13			0		5	0	4					9.0	5	40	146

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	KC		1B	Jac Caglianone	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		3B	Nick Loftin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		LF	Tyler Tolbert	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		C	Carter Jensen	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		DH	Salvador Perez	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	KC		2B	Michael Massey	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		RF	John Rave	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		CF	Kyle Isbel	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		CF	Andy Pages	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	LAD		2B	Tommy Edman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		C	Ben Rortvedt	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		LF	Alex Call	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	KC	1	3B	Nick Loftin	5	5	3	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	KC	3	1B	Jac Caglianone	5	4	2	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	KC	4	DH	Salvador Perez	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	KC	5	C	Carter Jensen	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	6	2B	Michael Massey	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	KC	7	LF	Tyler Tolbert	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	8	RF	John Rave	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	KC	9	CF	Kyle Isbel	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	0.667
simulation	LAD	2	1B	Freddie Freeman	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	3	CF	Andy Pages	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	4	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	LAD	5	3B	Max Muncy	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	6	SS	Mookie Betts	4	3	2	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	LAD	7	2B	Tommy Edman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	8	LF	Alex Call	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	9	C	Ben Rortvedt	4	4	2	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	KC	1	Michael Wacha	Starter	6.0	7	4	4	2	3	2	0	0	6.00	3.44	1.15
current	KC	2	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.19	1.21
current	KC	3	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	9.00	3.77	1.42
current	KC	5	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		6.17	1.56
current	LAD	1	Blake Snell	Starter	3.0	11	4	4	0	2	0	0	0	12.00	12.00	2.67
current	LAD	2	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.88	1.18
current	LAD	3	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	7.36	1.91
current	LAD	4	Jack Dreyer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.19	1.02
current	LAD	5	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	2.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.27	0.92
current	LAD	6	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.22	1.12
simulation	KC	1	Michael Wacha	Starter	6.0	7	4	4	2	3	2	27	105	6.00	3.44	1.15
simulation	KC	2	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	7		6.17	1.56
simulation	KC	3	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	4.19	1.21
simulation	KC	4	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	4	16	9.00	3.77	1.42
simulation	LAD	1	Blake Snell	Starter	3.0	11	4	4	0	2	0	20	77	12.00	12.00	2.67
simulation	LAD	2	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	4	20	9.00	7.36	1.91
simulation	LAD	3	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	2.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	7	8	0.00	2.27	0.92
simulation	LAD	4	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	4.22	1.12
simulation	LAD	5	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	14	0.00	2.88	1.18
simulation	LAD	6	Jack Dreyer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	14	0.00	3.19	1.02

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
KC	Michael Wacha	Starter	6.0	4	7	2	3	27	105
KC	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	4	16
KC	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	2	4	16
KC	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	1	0	0	1	7
LAD	Blake Snell	Starter	3.0	4	11	0	2	20	77
LAD	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
LAD	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	20
LAD	Jack Dreyer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
LAD	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	1	0	0	7	8
LAD	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260811_MIL@SD

20260811_MIL@SD.json • 2026-08-11

MIL 4 - SD 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=11, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brice Turang: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jackson Chourio: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Bauers: RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jihwan Bae: AB current=3 box=4, H current=3 box=0; William Contreras: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; David Hamilton: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luis Rengifo: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ty France: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1; Austin Hays: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Campusano: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=3 box=4		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match SD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match SD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=39 matches SD BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=36 matches MIL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.507 -> 0.513 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.507321, 'sample_size': 197, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5178, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.51256, 'published_confidence': 0.51256, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.513.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.513.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.487.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.487/0.666.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 8, SD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 4 - SD 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-05-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260810', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260810_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'SD', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.2123, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.156, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8802, 'winner': 'MIL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-11.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260811_MIL@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.25, 'home_run_delta': -0.0312, 'away_run_delta': 0.0312, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0326287273403024}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03149122104592194}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03086740048977113}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02979129776648447}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028550384966603615}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06946743412080568, '1': 0.11586330501880768, '2': 0.15996402495789847, '3': 0.18281443702822006, '4': 0.17294595600398965, '5': 0.1354322485615313, '6': 0.087790095704756, '7': 0.04710648634921644, '8': 0.020923178325489598, '9': 0.007692833929285211}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06609799289276999, '1': 0.11055904430742812, '2': 0.15395533167950606, '3': 0.1784800362088782, '4': 0.17225784548438486, '5': 0.13840852181892901, '6': 0.09258510083192606, '7': 0.051560109522943605, '8': 0.02390457421069032, '9': 0.009226620277900164, '10': 0.002964822764643663}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.4381, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.156, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.8802}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.2123, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.156, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8802, 'winner': 'MIL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 4 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 4 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.513.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match SD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match SD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=39 matches SD BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=36 matches MIL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.507 -> 0.513 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.507321, 'sample_size': 197, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5178, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.51256, 'published_confidence': 0.51256, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.513.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.513.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.487.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.487/0.666.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 8, SD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 4 - SD 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-05-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260810', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260810_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'SD', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.2123, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.156, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8802, 'winner': 'MIL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-11.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260811_MIL@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.25, 'home_run_delta': -0.0312, 'away_run_delta': 0.0312, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0326287273403024}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03149122104592194}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03086740048977113}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02979129776648447}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028550384966603615}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06946743412080568, '1': 0.11586330501880768, '2': 0.15996402495789847, '3': 0.18281443702822006, '4': 0.17294595600398965, '5': 0.1354322485615313, '6': 0.087790095704756, '7': 0.04710648634921644, '8': 0.020923178325489598, '9': 0.007692833929285211}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06609799289276999, '1': 0.11055904430742812, '2': 0.15395533167950606, '3': 0.1784800362088782, '4': 0.17225784548438486, '5': 0.13840852181892901, '6': 0.09258510083192606, '7': 0.051560109522943605, '8': 0.02390457421069032, '9': 0.009226620277900164, '10': 0.002964822764643663}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.4381, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.156, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.8802}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.2123, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.156, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8802, 'winner': 'MIL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 4 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 4 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.513.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=11, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brice Turang: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jackson Chourio: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Bauers: RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jihwan Bae: AB current=3 box=4, H current=3 box=0; William Contreras: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; David Hamilton: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luis Rengifo: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ty France: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1; Austin Hays: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Campusano: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=3 box=4	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.632017612457275	3.4299988746643066		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	3		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.513	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	8
SD	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIL	batting	33	11	0	0	0	4	5	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		6			2		3	3	9					9.0	3	0	0
current	SD	batting	32	9	0	0	0	2	2	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		8			2		4	4	7					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	MIL	batting	35	8	1	0	2	4	4	4	7	0	0
simulation	MIL	pitching		6			2		3	3	9					9.0	3	36	144
simulation	SD	batting	33	6	1	0	2	3	3	3	9	0	0
simulation	SD	pitching		8			2		4	4	7					9.0	4	39	152

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	MIL		SS	Brice Turang	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	MIL		RF	Luis Lara	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIL		1B	Jake Bauers	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	MIL		2B	Jihwan Bae	0	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.000
current	MIL		C	William Contreras	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		3B	David Hamilton	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIL		DH	Christian Yelich	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SD		DH	Luis Rengifo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	SD		1B	Ty France	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	SD		RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	SD		LF	Austin Hays	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		C	Luis Campusano	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		2B	Jake Cronenworth	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	MIL	1	SS	Brice Turang	5	4	3	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.750
simulation	MIL	2	LF	Jackson Chourio	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	MIL	3	CF	Garrett Mitchell	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIL	4	1B	Jake Bauers	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIL	5	C	William Contreras	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	6	DH	Christian Yelich	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIL	7	RF	Luis Lara	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	MIL	8	3B	David Hamilton	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	MIL	9	2B	Jihwan Bae	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SD	1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	SD	2	DH	Luis Rengifo	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	4	1B	Ty France	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	SD	5	CF	Jackson Merrill	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	SD	6	LF	Austin Hays	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	SD	7	C	Luis Campusano	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	SD	8	SS	Xander Bogaerts	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	SD	9	2B	Jake Cronenworth	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIL	1	Kyle Harrison	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	2	7	2	0	0	4.76	2.84	1.04
current	MIL	2	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.56	1.42
current	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.05	1.03
current	MIL	4	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.79	0.82
current	SD	1	Walker Buehler	Starter	4.2	5	2	2	4	6	0	0	0	3.86	5.07	1.46
current	SD	2	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	6.75	2.84	1.06
current	SD	4	Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	5.40	3.42	1.14
current	SD	5	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.89	0.81
simulation	MIL	1	Kyle Harrison	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	2	7	2	24	94	4.76	2.84	1.04
simulation	MIL	2	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.79	0.82
simulation	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	18	0.00	2.05	1.03
simulation	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	19	0.00	3.56	1.42
simulation	SD	1	Walker Buehler	Starter	4.2	5	2	2	4	6	0	23	90	3.86	5.07	1.46
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	18	0.00	0.89	0.81
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	1	6	23	6.75	2.84	1.06
simulation	SD	4	Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	6	21	5.40	3.42	1.14

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIL	Kyle Harrison	Starter	5.2	3	5	2	7	24	94
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	19
MIL	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	1	5	18
MIL	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
SD	Walker Buehler	Starter	4.2	2	5	4	6	23	90
SD	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	2	0	0	6	23
SD	Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	1	0	1	6	21
SD	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	18

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260811_TB@OAK

20260811_TB@OAK.json • 2026-08-11

TB 5 - OAK 1

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Zack Gelof: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Carlos Cortes: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Henry Bolte: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Wilson: AB current=5 box=3, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jonah Heim: SO current=1 box=0; Lawrence Butler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=11, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Junior Caminero: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=2 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Cedric Mullins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Taylor Walls: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match TB pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=35 matches TB BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match OAK pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=39 matches OAK BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.733 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 473, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5455, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.73275, 'published_confidence': 0.66, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.458/0.632.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 9, OAK 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 5 - OAK 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TB.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260810', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260810_TB@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-11.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260811_TB@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@OAK.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': -4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': -4.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0333, 'away_run_delta': 0.0333, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 1, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.03869751561216095}, {'home_runs': 1, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.038248244110378686}, {'home_runs': 1, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03499261662894579}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.034023730543496826}, {'home_runs': 1, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.03378793685077707}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.22468992024445653, '1': 0.2841892869547914, '2': 0.2498656456297085, '3': 0.15271444861875913, '4': 0.06488262951177581, '5': 0.019162470090058836, '6': 0.003934135116488656, '7': 0.0005614638339611592}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0267768561101868, '1': 0.046406545230515024, '2': 0.07188208151595554, '3': 0.0995139131150904, '4': 0.12313137136134335, '5': 0.1361681012919988, '6': 0.13458721305164184, '7': 0.11889236646753693, '8': 0.0938698006998822, '9': 0.06623988550645894, '10': 0.04177678387710678, '11': 0.023548984656301016, '12': 0.01186399959000385, '13': 0.005342097525978607}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.0958, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.2, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.7823}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 1 OAK', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 1 OAK', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.148, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.55, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.7823, 'winner': 'TB', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 5 - 1 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 5 - 1 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-1, final 5-1 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match TB pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=35 matches TB BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match OAK pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=39 matches OAK BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.733 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 473, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5455, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.73275, 'published_confidence': 0.66, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.458/0.632.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 9, OAK 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 5 - OAK 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TB.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260810', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260810_TB@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-11.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260811_TB@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@OAK.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': -4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': -4.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0333, 'away_run_delta': 0.0333, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 1, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.03869751561216095}, {'home_runs': 1, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.038248244110378686}, {'home_runs': 1, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03499261662894579}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.034023730543496826}, {'home_runs': 1, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.03378793685077707}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.22468992024445653, '1': 0.2841892869547914, '2': 0.2498656456297085, '3': 0.15271444861875913, '4': 0.06488262951177581, '5': 0.019162470090058836, '6': 0.003934135116488656, '7': 0.0005614638339611592}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0267768561101868, '1': 0.046406545230515024, '2': 0.07188208151595554, '3': 0.0995139131150904, '4': 0.12313137136134335, '5': 0.1361681012919988, '6': 0.13458721305164184, '7': 0.11889236646753693, '8': 0.0938698006998822, '9': 0.06623988550645894, '10': 0.04177678387710678, '11': 0.023548984656301016, '12': 0.01186399959000385, '13': 0.005342097525978607}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.0958, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.2, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.7823}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 1 OAK', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 1 OAK', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.148, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.55, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.7823, 'winner': 'TB', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 5 - 1 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 5 - 1 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-1, final 5-1 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Zack Gelof: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Carlos Cortes: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Henry Bolte: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Wilson: AB current=5 box=3, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jonah Heim: SO current=1 box=0; Lawrence Butler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=11, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Junior Caminero: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=2 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Cedric Mullins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Taylor Walls: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	6.026363372802734	4.019290447235107		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	1	0.660	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	1		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	1		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	1		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	1		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5	9
OAK	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	4

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TB	batting	36	11	0	0	0	3	6	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		4			1		1	3	5					9.0	1	0	0
current	OAK	batting	33	9	0	0	0	0	1	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		9			1		5	2	10					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	TB	batting	36	9	1	0	1	5	5	2	10	0	1
simulation	TB	pitching		4			1		1	3	5					9.0	1	35	137
simulation	OAK	batting	31	4	0	0	1	1	1	3	5	0	1
simulation	OAK	pitching		9			1		5	2	10					9.0	5	39	174

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	TB		DH	Yandy Díaz	0	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
current	TB		C	Liam Hicks	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TB		1B	Jonathan Aranda	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	TB		LF	Chandler Simpson	0	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
current	TB		RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		CF	Cedric Mullins	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		SS	Taylor Walls	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		2B	Richie Palacios	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		LF	Zack Gelof	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		DH	Carlos Cortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		1B	Jeff McNeil	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		2B	Donovan Walton	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		SS	Jacob Wilson	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	OAK		C	Jonah Heim	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		RF	Lawrence Butler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		3B	Tommy White	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TB	1	DH	Yandy Díaz	5	4	3	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.750
simulation	TB	2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	3	3B	Junior Caminero	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	TB	4	C	Liam Hicks	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	1	0.333
simulation	TB	5	LF	Chandler Simpson	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TB	6	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TB	7	CF	Cedric Mullins	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	8	2B	Richie Palacios	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TB	9	SS	Taylor Walls	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	1	1B	Jeff McNeil	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	2	LF	Zack Gelof	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	3	SS	Jacob Wilson	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	OAK	4	DH	Carlos Cortes	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	OAK	5	RF	Lawrence Butler	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	6	C	Jonah Heim	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	7	CF	Henry Bolte	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	8	2B	Donovan Walton	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	9	3B	Tommy White	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TB	1	Nick Martinez	Starter	6.0	3	1	1	3	4	1	0	0	1.50	2.65	1.10
current	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.55	0.84
current	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.96	0.82
current	TB	4	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.28	1.23
current	OAK	1	Mason Barnett	Starter	4.1	8	5	5	1	6	1	0	0	10.38	5.56	1.38
current	OAK	2	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.42	1.37
current	OAK	3	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.46	1.21
current	OAK	4	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.63	1.58
current	OAK	5	José Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.22	1.50
simulation	TB	1	Nick Martinez	Starter	6.0	3	1	1	3	4	1	24	97	1.50	2.65	1.10
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	11	0.00	1.55	0.84
simulation	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	1.96	0.82
simulation	TB	4	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.28	1.23
simulation	OAK	1	Mason Barnett	Starter	4.1	8	5	5	1	6	1	22	95	10.38	5.56	1.38
simulation	OAK	2	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	6	24	0.00	3.63	1.58
simulation	OAK	3	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	15	0.00	4.46	1.21
simulation	OAK	4	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	27	0.00	3.42	1.37
simulation	OAK	5	José Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	5.22	1.50

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TB	Nick Martinez	Starter	6.0	1	3	3	4	24	97
TB	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	11
TB	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
TB	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	3	13
OAK	Mason Barnett	Starter	4.1	5	8	1	6	22	95
OAK	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	27
OAK	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	4	15
OAK	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	1	6	24
OAK	José Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260811_TEX@LAA

20260811_TEX@LAA.json • 2026-08-11

TEX 7 - LAA 2

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 99INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 5-4, final 7-2 (delta 4).

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 5-4, final 7-2 (delta 4).

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 5-4, final 7-2 (delta 4).
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vaughn Grissom: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nolan Schanuel: H current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: H current=1 box=0; Jose Siri: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Wade Meckler: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Oswald Peraza: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=7; R: current=3, sim=7; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Joc Pederson: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Evan Carter: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Wynns: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match TEX pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match TEX pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=32 matches TEX BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match LAA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match LAA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match LAA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=39 matches LAA BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.553 -> 0.535 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.553156, 'sample_size': 197, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5178, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.535478, 'published_confidence': 0.535478, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.535.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.535.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.465.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.516/0.700.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 9, LAA 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 7 - LAA 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TEX; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': -8, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-07-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 13, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -12, 'winner': 'LAA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260810', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51795, 'artifact': '20260810_TEX@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260709', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260709_LAA@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260708', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 12, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5, 'artifact': '20260708_LAA@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260707', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.63, 'artifact': '20260707_LAA@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TEX', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'TEX', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 3 LAA', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'TEX 7 - 2 LAA', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1032, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.394, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 3, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5906, 'winner': 'TEX', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-11.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260811_TEX@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@LAA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.8, 'home_run_delta': 0.0231, 'away_run_delta': -0.0231, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 12.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03274336710667906}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03155134092433702}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03092319087504303}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02979742842536837}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028685537915928472}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06973735224165313, '1': 0.11628522662025803, '2': 0.16042951026652008, '3': 0.18312371777014935, '4': 0.17294402435474435, '5': 0.13513478324690123, '6': 0.08736336689347944, '7': 0.04672961482968799, '8': 0.02068024428801111, '9': 0.007572159488595337}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06635456191657986, '1': 0.11096282919505585, '2': 0.15441168875225794, '3': 0.17880462184465595, '4': 0.17229521827390587, '5': 0.13815405133956937, '6': 0.09218280984443805, '7': 0.05118375865530312, '8': 0.023648866213236624, '9': 0.009092522620855461, '10': 0.0029090713441421536}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6695, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.444, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.5906}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 3 LAA', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'TEX 7 - 2 LAA', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1032, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.394, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 3, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5906, 'winner': 'TEX', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 5 - 4 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 7 - 2 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 7-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.535.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TEX wins 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 7-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match TEX pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match TEX pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=32 matches TEX BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match LAA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match LAA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match LAA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=39 matches LAA BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.553 -> 0.535 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.553156, 'sample_size': 197, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5178, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.535478, 'published_confidence': 0.535478, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.535.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.535.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.465.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.516/0.700.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 9, LAA 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 7 - LAA 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TEX; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': -8, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-07-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 13, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -12, 'winner': 'LAA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260810', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51795, 'artifact': '20260810_TEX@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260709', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260709_LAA@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260708', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 12, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5, 'artifact': '20260708_LAA@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260707', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.63, 'artifact': '20260707_LAA@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TEX', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'TEX', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 3 LAA', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'TEX 7 - 2 LAA', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1032, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.394, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 3, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5906, 'winner': 'TEX', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-11.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260811_TEX@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@LAA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.8, 'home_run_delta': 0.0231, 'away_run_delta': -0.0231, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 12.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03274336710667906}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03155134092433702}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03092319087504303}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02979742842536837}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028685537915928472}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06973735224165313, '1': 0.11628522662025803, '2': 0.16042951026652008, '3': 0.18312371777014935, '4': 0.17294402435474435, '5': 0.13513478324690123, '6': 0.08736336689347944, '7': 0.04672961482968799, '8': 0.02068024428801111, '9': 0.007572159488595337}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06635456191657986, '1': 0.11096282919505585, '2': 0.15441168875225794, '3': 0.17880462184465595, '4': 0.17229521827390587, '5': 0.13815405133956937, '6': 0.09218280984443805, '7': 0.05118375865530312, '8': 0.023648866213236624, '9': 0.009092522620855461, '10': 0.0029090713441421536}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6695, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.444, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.5906}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 3 LAA', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'TEX 7 - 2 LAA', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1032, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.394, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 3, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5906, 'winner': 'TEX', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 5 - 4 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 7 - 2 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 7-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.535.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TEX wins 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 7-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vaughn Grissom: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nolan Schanuel: H current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: H current=1 box=0; Jose Siri: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Wade Meckler: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Oswald Peraza: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=7; R: current=3, sim=7; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Joc Pederson: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Evan Carter: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Wynns: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.838784217834473	4.2914814949035645		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.535	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	2	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	7	9
LAA	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TEX	batting	33	9	0	0	0	3	3	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		5			1		2	0	7					9.0	2	0	0
current	LAA	batting	32	8	0	0	0	2	2	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		9			2		7	3	4					9.0	7	0	0
simulation	TEX	batting	36	9	2	0	2	7	7	3	4	0	0
simulation	TEX	pitching		5			1		2	0	7					9.0	2	32	132
simulation	LAA	batting	31	5	1	0	1	2	2	0	7	1	0
simulation	LAA	pitching		9			2		7	3	4					9.0	7	39	149

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	TEX		SS	Corey Seager	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	TEX		3B	Ezequiel Duran	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	TEX		RF	Brandon Nimmo	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.200
current	TEX		DH	Joc Pederson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TEX		LF	Wyatt Langford	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	TEX		CF	Evan Carter	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	TEX		C	Austin Wynns	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TEX		2B	Nicky Lopez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAA		3B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		1B	Nolan Schanuel	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		DH	Moisés Ballesteros	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAA		LF	Jose Siri	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAA		RF	Wade Meckler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAA		2B	Oswald Peraza	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAA		CF	Mike Trout	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	LAA		C	Tyler Heineman	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TEX	1	DH	Joc Pederson	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	2	LF	Wyatt Langford	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.400
simulation	TEX	3	SS	Corey Seager	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TEX	4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	4	3	2	0	1	1	3	1	1	0.667
simulation	TEX	5	3B	Ezequiel Duran	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	6	CF	Evan Carter	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	7	1B	Jake Burger	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	8	C	Austin Wynns	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	9	2B	Nicky Lopez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAA	1	SS	Zach Neto	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	2	CF	Mike Trout	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	LAA	3	1B	Nolan Schanuel	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAA	4	3B	Vaughn Grissom	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	5	2B	Oswald Peraza	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	LAA	6	DH	Moisés Ballesteros	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAA	7	LF	Jose Siri	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	8	RF	Wade Meckler	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	LAA	9	C	Tyler Heineman	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TEX	1	Cody Bradford	Starter	4.1	5	2	2	0	4	1	0	0	4.15	0.00	1.62
current	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	2.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.33	0.67
current	TEX	3	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.84	1.49
current	TEX	4	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.30	1.21
current	LAA	1	Ryan Johnson	Starter	4.0	7	6	6	1	2	2	0	0	13.50	7.11	1.60
current	LAA	2	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.08	0.85
current	LAA	3	Ben Joyce	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	9.00	0.00	0.67
current	LAA	4	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.23	1.31
current	LAA	5	Luke Murphy	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.91	1.64
current	LAA	6	Blake Weiman	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1.50
simulation	TEX	1	Cody Bradford	Starter	4.1	5	2	2	0	4	1	18	70	4.15	0.00	1.62
simulation	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	2.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	8	31	0.00	1.33	0.67
simulation	TEX	3	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	3.30	1.21
simulation	TEX	4	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	15	0.00	2.84	1.49
simulation	LAA	1	Ryan Johnson	Starter	4.0	7	6	6	1	2	2	20	78	13.50	7.11	1.60
simulation	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	0	6	6	9.00	0.00	0.67
simulation	LAA	3	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	12	0.00	2.08	0.85
simulation	LAA	4	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	20	0.00	3.23	1.31
simulation	LAA	5	Luke Murphy	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	18	0.00	4.91	1.64
simulation	LAA	6	Blake Weiman	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15	0.00	0.00	1.50

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TEX	Cody Bradford	Starter	4.1	2	5	0	4	18	70
TEX	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	2.2	0	0	0	1	8	31
TEX	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	15
TEX	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
LAA	Ryan Johnson	Starter	4.0	6	7	1	2	20	78
LAA	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	1	5	12
LAA	Ben Joyce	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	2	0	6	6
LAA	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	20
LAA	Luke Murphy	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	18
LAA	Blake Weiman	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	0	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	0	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	0	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	0	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	warning	1	0	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.