MLB Prediction System

Metric Evolution & Audit

Every number that moved, the stage that moved it, the input it used, and the arithmetic that proves it

Slate 20261011Games 1Checks 150Schema metric_evolution_report_v1Built 2026-10-12 09:15Z

Verdict across the slate

150 invariants checked across 1 games: NO DEFECT FOUND

How to read this, and what a defect looks like

Every figure below is shown with the arithmetic that produced it and a verdict beside it, so a disagreement can be pointed at a specific line rather than at the system as a whole.

Stage chain. Each game lists every stage that touched the score, the score after it, and whether it changed the target. Most stages move nothing on most games; a chain that showed only movement would misrepresent it. A stage reporting a delta while changed_target is false computed an adjustment and did not apply it, which is normal and is stated.
Blend arithmetic. The KPI blend must satisfy blended = baseline + weight x (kpi_only - baseline) for all three targets. A FAIL here means the layer reported a number it did not compute.
Rounding. Published integers must be the rounding of the blended runs under the documented tie rule. A FAIL means the published score and the continuous line describe different games.
Log5 additivity. For every player metric, own skill plus opponent plus the Log5 remainder must equal the total against the league, exactly. A FAIL means the decomposition is not a decomposition.
Direction. A green delta helps the subject, a red one hurts him. Strikeouts invert for a hitter. If an elite arm's opponent shows green strikeouts, the orientation is wrong and the whole player section is suspect.
Measured versus published. The KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The per-player metric adjustments here are a measurement of the same catalog at player level, not what the pipeline published; the one club-wide ratio the pipeline actually applied to hitter lines is printed beside them.
Integer versus continuous. The integer player line is a simulation draw reconciled to the box score. The continuous expected_* beside it is the model's own view and is the rankable quantity. Judging the model by the integer is how a working model looks broken.

Slate overview

Game	Published	p(home)	Stages	Stages that moved it	KPI applied	Δ away runs	Δ home runs	Simulation draw chosen on	0-out starter
20261011_LAD@MIL	2 - 4	0.5482	8	3	no	-0.6301	+1.0124	-	no

KPI model in force. candidate 20261012T091527Z_e6f3fdba, 48 features built from 40 registered KPIs, blend weights {"home_runs": 0.38, "away_runs": 0.34, "home_win": 0.0}, frozen evaluation ends 2026-09-27. A target whose weight is zero contributes nothing by construction: the winner probability carries weight zero while its walk-forward verdict is inconclusive, so every win-probability movement below is expected to be exactly zero.

Per game

20261011_LAD@MIL — published 2-4, 150 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20261011_LAD@MIL__20261012T023902Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-10-12T02:39:02, first pitch 2026-10-12T00:00:00.
Published 2 - 4 with p(home) 0.548241. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; ? of ? draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.160308109584837 - 4.808204291274732	0	0	0	0	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 5	-0.1603	+0.1918	-0.1603	+0.1918	yes	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	3 - 4	-1.0000	-1.0000	-1.1603	-0.8082	yes	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
4. `kpi_layer`	3.0 - 4.0	0	0	-1.1603	-0.8082	no	away -0.6301; home +1.0124 Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
5. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	2 - 4	-1.0000	0	-2.1603	-0.8082	yes	away -0.5653; home -0.2672 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	2 - 4	0	0	-2.1603	-0.8082	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
7. `capped_target`	2 - 4	0	0	-2.1603	-0.8082	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8. `simulation_result`	2 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

A stage reporting its own adjustment while Changed target reads no computed a movement that a later reconciliation absorbed, or that rounded away at the integer score. That is recorded rather than hidden.

KPI layer withheld. values_fresh. The published score is the pre-KPI baseline.

Per-player metric movement

LAD against Brock Stewart (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to LAD hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 18.853 of 36.905 projected batters (51.1%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 48.9%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Mookie Betts	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.789 → 0.674	-0.115	0.2169	0.2268n=523 Good	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1761	+0.042	-0.207	-0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.7762 at 0.511 share (log5 0.1761 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.935 at 0.489 share (log5 0.2121 vs pen 0.2026) = x0.8539 \| starter alone would have been -0.177
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.770 → 1.124	+0.354	0.2212	0.1168n=523 Very good	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.2070	-0.442	+0.584	-0.202 ok
		split	starter x1.7724 at 0.511 share (log5 0.2070 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1319 at 0.489 share (log5 0.1322 vs pen 0.2465) = x1.4591 \| starter alone would have been +0.595
		Walkswhole staff	0.349 → 0.323	-0.026	0.0889	0.0866n=523 Average	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0708	-0.010	-0.069	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8176 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0708 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0385 at 0.489 share (log5 0.0899 vs pen 0.0923) = x0.9256 \| starter alone would have been -0.064
		Home runswhole staff	0.149 → 0.122	-0.027	0.0304	0.0394n=523 Good	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0306	+0.038	-0.029	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.7761 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0306 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8597 at 0.489 share (log5 0.0339 vs pen 0.0261) = x0.817 \| starter alone would have been -0.033
Freddie Freeman	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.817 → 0.699	-0.118	0.2169	0.2394n=652 Very good	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1865	+0.099	-0.214	-0.017 ok
		split	starter x0.7791 at 0.511 share (log5 0.1865 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.936 at 0.489 share (log5 0.2241 vs pen 0.2026) = x0.8558 \| starter alone would have been -0.180
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.122 → 1.580	+0.458	0.2212	0.1781n=652 Good	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.2996	-0.189	+0.603	-0.072 ok
		split	starter x1.6823 at 0.511 share (log5 0.2996 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1216 at 0.489 share (log5 0.1997 vs pen 0.2465) = x1.4081 \| starter alone would have been +0.766
		Walkswhole staff	0.435 → 0.403	-0.032	0.0889	0.0993n=652 Average	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0814	+0.045	-0.071	-0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.8197 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0814 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.038 at 0.489 share (log5 0.1031 vs pen 0.0923) = x0.9265 \| starter alone would have been -0.078
		Home runswhole staff	0.110 → 0.090	-0.020	0.0304	0.0262n=652 Average	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0203	-0.018	-0.030	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.7737 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0203 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.858 at 0.489 share (log5 0.0225 vs pen 0.0261) = x0.8149 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
Will Smith	C	Hitswhole staff	0.748 → 0.638	-0.110	0.2169	0.2185n=276 Average	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1692	+0.007	-0.203	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.7744 at 0.511 share (log5 0.1692 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.9344 at 0.489 share (log5 0.2041 vs pen 0.2026) = x0.8527 \| starter alone would have been -0.169
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.063 → 1.502	+0.439	0.2212	0.1718n=276 Good	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.2905	-0.205	+0.572	-0.080 ok
		split	starter x1.6911 at 0.511 share (log5 0.2905 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1226 at 0.489 share (log5 0.1928 vs pen 0.2465) = x1.413 \| starter alone would have been +0.735
		Walkswhole staff	0.400 → 0.371	-0.029	0.0889	0.1129n=276 Good	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0928	+0.099	-0.067	-0.016 ok
		split	starter x0.8219 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0928 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0374 at 0.489 share (log5 0.1171 vs pen 0.0923) = x0.9273 \| starter alone would have been -0.071
		Home runswhole staff	0.128 → 0.104	-0.024	0.0304	0.0334n=276 Average	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0259	+0.012	-0.028	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.775 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0259 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8589 at 0.489 share (log5 0.0287 vs pen 0.0261) = x0.816 \| starter alone would have been -0.029
Shohei Ohtani	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.779 → 0.665	-0.114	0.2169	0.2255n=613 Good	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1750	+0.037	-0.210	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.7759 at 0.511 share (log5 0.1750 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.9349 at 0.489 share (log5 0.2108 vs pen 0.2026) = x0.8537 \| starter alone would have been -0.175
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.402 → 1.904	+0.502	0.2212	0.2445n=613 Average	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.3898	+0.100	+0.592	+0.031 ok
		split	starter x1.5944 at 0.511 share (log5 0.3898 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1107 at 0.489 share (log5 0.2715 vs pen 0.2465) = x1.3578 \| starter alone would have been +0.833
		Walkswhole staff	0.523 → 0.485	-0.038	0.0889	0.1251n=613 Very good	0.0727n=640 Good	0.1031	+0.155	-0.069	-0.025 ok
		split	starter x0.8239 at 0.511 share (log5 0.1031 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0368 at 0.489 share (log5 0.1297 vs pen 0.0923) = x0.928 \| starter alone would have been -0.092
		Home runswhole staff	0.186 → 0.152	-0.034	0.0304	0.0434n=613 Very good	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0337	+0.056	-0.029	-0.012 ok
		split	starter x0.7768 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0337 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8601 at 0.489 share (log5 0.0373 vs pen 0.0261) = x0.8175 \| starter alone would have been -0.042
Teoscar Hernández	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.775 → 0.662	-0.113	0.2169	0.2292n=487 Good	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1780	+0.049	-0.196	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.7768 at 0.511 share (log5 0.1780 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.9352 at 0.489 share (log5 0.2143 vs pen 0.2026) = x0.8543 \| starter alone would have been -0.173
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.526 → 2.046	+0.520	0.2212	0.2684n=487 Below average	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.4200	+0.189	+0.553	+0.054 ok
		split	starter x1.5649 at 0.511 share (log5 0.4200 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1068 at 0.489 share (log5 0.2970 vs pen 0.2465) = x1.3408 \| starter alone would have been +0.862
		Walkswhole staff	0.315 → 0.291	-0.023	0.0889	0.0868n=487 Average	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0709	-0.009	-0.065	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8176 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0709 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0385 at 0.489 share (log5 0.0901 vs pen 0.0923) = x0.9256 \| starter alone would have been -0.057
		Home runswhole staff	0.126 → 0.103	-0.023	0.0304	0.0320n=487 Average	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0248	+0.006	-0.028	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.7747 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0248 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8587 at 0.489 share (log5 0.0275 vs pen 0.0261) = x0.8158 \| starter alone would have been -0.028
Max Muncy	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.721 → 0.615	-0.106	0.2169	0.2173n=556 Average	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1682	+0.002	-0.198	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.7741 at 0.511 share (log5 0.1682 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.9343 at 0.489 share (log5 0.2030 vs pen 0.2026) = x0.8525 \| starter alone would have been -0.163
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.318 → 1.785	+0.467	0.2212	0.2493n=556 Below average	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.3960	+0.113	+0.556	+0.035 ok
		split	starter x1.5883 at 0.511 share (log5 0.3960 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1099 at 0.489 share (log5 0.2767 vs pen 0.2465) = x1.3543 \| starter alone would have been +0.775
		Walkswhole staff	0.432 → 0.401	-0.032	0.0889	0.1105n=556 Good	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0908	+0.087	-0.065	-0.014 ok
		split	starter x0.8215 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0908 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0375 at 0.489 share (log5 0.1146 vs pen 0.0923) = x0.9271 \| starter alone would have been -0.077
		Home runswhole staff	0.183 → 0.150	-0.033	0.0304	0.0451n=556 Very good	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0351	+0.059	-0.028	-0.013 ok
		split	starter x0.7771 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0351 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8604 at 0.489 share (log5 0.0388 vs pen 0.0261) = x0.8178 \| starter alone would have been -0.041
Andy Pages	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.715 → 0.611	-0.104	0.2169	0.2323n=569 Good	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1806	+0.058	-0.183	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.7775 at 0.511 share (log5 0.1806 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.9355 at 0.489 share (log5 0.2173 vs pen 0.2026) = x0.8548 \| starter alone would have been -0.159
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.028 → 1.432	+0.404	0.2212	0.1971n=569 Average	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.3265	-0.090	+0.515	-0.033 ok
		split	starter x1.656 at 0.511 share (log5 0.3265 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1184 at 0.489 share (log5 0.2205 vs pen 0.2465) = x1.3931 \| starter alone would have been +0.674
		Walkswhole staff	0.304 → 0.281	-0.023	0.0889	0.0866n=569 Average	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0708	-0.009	-0.060	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8176 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0708 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0385 at 0.489 share (log5 0.0899 vs pen 0.0923) = x0.9256 \| starter alone would have been -0.055
		Home runswhole staff	0.125 → 0.102	-0.023	0.0304	0.0372n=569 Good	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0289	+0.026	-0.026	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.7757 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0289 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8594 at 0.489 share (log5 0.0320 vs pen 0.0261) = x0.8166 \| starter alone would have been -0.028
Kyle Tucker	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.671 → 0.571	-0.100	0.2169	0.2076n=622 Below average	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1602	-0.036	-0.190	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.7719 at 0.511 share (log5 0.1602 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.9335 at 0.489 share (log5 0.1938 vs pen 0.2026) = x0.8509 \| starter alone would have been -0.153
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.885 → 1.252	+0.366	0.2212	0.1711n=622 Good	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.2895	-0.195	+0.536	-0.076 ok
		split	starter x1.692 at 0.511 share (log5 0.2895 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1227 at 0.489 share (log5 0.1921 vs pen 0.2465) = x1.4136 \| starter alone would have been +0.613
		Walkswhole staff	0.430 → 0.399	-0.031	0.0889	0.1195n=622 Very good	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0984	+0.119	-0.063	-0.019 ok
		split	starter x0.823 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0984 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0371 at 0.489 share (log5 0.1240 vs pen 0.0923) = x0.9277 \| starter alone would have been -0.076
		Home runswhole staff	0.106 → 0.086	-0.020	0.0304	0.0282n=622 Average	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0219	-0.008	-0.027	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.7741 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0219 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8583 at 0.489 share (log5 0.0242 vs pen 0.0261) = x0.8153 \| starter alone would have been -0.024
Enrique Hernández	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.621 → 0.529	-0.092	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1679	0	-0.164	0 ok
		split	starter x0.774 at 0.511 share (log5 0.1679 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.9343 at 0.489 share (log5 0.2026 vs pen 0.2026) = x0.8524 \| starter alone would have been -0.140
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.278 → 1.758	+0.479	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.3593	0	+0.463	0 ok
		split	starter x1.6241 at 0.511 share (log5 0.3593 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1145 at 0.489 share (log5 0.2465 vs pen 0.2465) = x1.3749 \| starter alone would have been +0.798
		Walkswhole staff	0.239 → 0.221	-0.018	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0727	0	-0.054	0 ok
		split	starter x0.818 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0727 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0384 at 0.489 share (log5 0.0923 vs pen 0.0923) = x0.9258 \| starter alone would have been -0.043
		Home runswhole staff	0.116 → 0.095	-0.021	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0235	0	-0.023	0 ok
		split	starter x0.7745 at 0.511 share (log5 0.0235 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8585 at 0.489 share (log5 0.0261 vs pen 0.0261) = x0.8156 \| starter alone would have been -0.026
STARTER Tarik Skubal22.3814 BF	Starter	Hits	3.924 → 4.130	+0.206	0.2169	0.2076n=620 Average	0.22819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2185	-0.207	+0.252	-0.008 ok
		Strikeouts	6.300 → 6.300	+0.001	0.2212	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.22129/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2910	+1.562	+0.001	+0.000 ok
		Walks	1.186 → 1.388	+0.202	0.0889	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0617	-0.810	+0.324	-0.123 ok
		Home runs	0.537 → 0.504	-0.033	0.0304	0.0259n=620 Good	0.02859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0243	-0.102	-0.041	+0.006 ok
RELIEVER Edgardo Henriquez2.5917 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.487 → 0.513	+0.026	0.2169	0.1880n=242 Very good	0.22819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1981	-0.075	+0.029	-0.003 ok
		Strikeouts	0.714 → 0.714	+0.000	0.2212	0.2754n=242 Good	0.22129/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2754	+0.141	+0.000	0 ok
		Walks	0.253 → 0.294	+0.041	0.0889	0.0976n=242 Average	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1133	+0.023	+0.037	+0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.055 → 0.051	-0.003	0.0304	0.0212n=242 Very good	0.02859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0199	-0.024	-0.005	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Tanner Scott2.5303 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.519 → 0.546	+0.027	0.2169	0.2051n=251 Good	0.22819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2159	-0.030	+0.029	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.762 → 0.762	+0.000	0.2212	0.3011n=251 Very good	0.22129/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3012	+0.202	+0.000	0 ok
		Walks	0.180 → 0.210	+0.030	0.0889	0.0710n=251 Good	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0828	-0.045	+0.037	-0.007 ok
		Home runs	0.064 → 0.060	-0.004	0.0304	0.0252n=251 Good	0.02859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0237	-0.013	-0.005	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Alex Vesia2.0677 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.458 → 0.483	+0.025	0.2169	0.1766n=237 Very good	0.22819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1863	-0.083	+0.023	-0.003 ok
		Strikeouts	1.244 → 1.244	+0.000	0.2212	0.2892n=237 Very good	0.22129/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2892	+0.141	0	0 ok
		Walks	0.482 → 0.558	+0.076	0.0889	0.1166n=237 Poor	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1349	+0.057	+0.030	+0.008 ok
		Home runs	0.053 → 0.050	-0.003	0.0304	0.0257n=237 Good	0.02859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0241	-0.010	-0.004	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Edwin Díaz2.0464 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.444 → 0.467	+0.023	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2281	0	+0.023	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.453 → 0.453	0	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22129/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2212	0	0	0 ok
		Walks	0.182 → 0.212	+0.030	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1034	0	+0.030	0 ok
		Home runs	0.062 → 0.058	-0.004	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.02859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0285	0	-0.004	0 ok
RELIEVER Evan Phillips1.4078 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.305 → 0.321	+0.016	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2281	0	+0.016	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.311 → 0.311	0	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22129/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2212	0	0	0 ok
		Walks	0.125 → 0.146	+0.020	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1034	0	+0.020	0 ok
		Home runs	0.043 → 0.040	-0.003	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.02859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0285	0	-0.003	0 ok
RELIEVER Roki Sasaki1.3478 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.292 → 0.307	+0.015	0.2169	0.2166n=522 Average	0.22819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2279	-0.000	+0.015	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.315 → 0.315	0	0.2212	0.2337n=522 Average	0.22129/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2337	+0.017	0	0 ok
		Walks	0.123 → 0.143	+0.020	0.0889	0.0913n=522 Average	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1061	+0.003	+0.019	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.050 → 0.046	-0.003	0.0304	0.0367n=522 Poor	0.02859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0345	+0.009	-0.003	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Brock Stewart1.3385 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.290 → 0.305	+0.015	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2281	0	+0.015	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.296 → 0.296	0	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22129/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2212	0	0	0 ok
		Walks	0.119 → 0.138	+0.019	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1034	0	+0.019	0 ok
		Home runs	0.041 → 0.038	-0.003	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.02859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0285	0	-0.003	0 ok

MIL against Chad Patrick (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to MIL hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 22.3814 of 35.713 projected batters (62.7%) and the 1 projected relievers for the remaining 37.3%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Jackson Chourio	LF	Hitswhole staff	1.070 → 1.017	-0.053	0.2169	0.2457n=567 Very good	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2356	+0.128	-0.041	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9588 at 0.627 share (log5 0.2356 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9371 at 0.373 share (log5 0.2303 vs pen 0.2027) = x0.9507 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.338 → 1.679	+0.341	0.2212	0.2351n=567 Average	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.3076	+0.062	+0.310	+0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.308 at 0.627 share (log5 0.3076 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.1661 at 0.373 share (log5 0.2742 vs pen 0.2587) = x1.255 \| starter alone would have been +0.412
		Walkswhole staff	0.357 → 0.270	-0.087	0.0889	0.0839n=567 Average	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0497	-0.022	-0.161	+0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.5918 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0497 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.0319 at 0.373 share (log5 0.0866 vs pen 0.0917) = x0.7561 \| starter alone would have been -0.146
		Home runswhole staff	0.163 → 0.142	-0.021	0.0304	0.0397n=567 Good	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0338	+0.042	-0.020	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.8519 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0338 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.9065 at 0.373 share (log5 0.0360 vs pen 0.0275) = x0.8723 \| starter alone would have been -0.024
Brice Turang	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.955 → 0.907	-0.048	0.2169	0.2264n=666 Good	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2169	+0.041	-0.039	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9578 at 0.627 share (log5 0.2169 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9356 at 0.373 share (log5 0.2118 vs pen 0.2027) = x0.9495 \| starter alone would have been -0.040
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.472 → 1.840	+0.368	0.2212	0.2473n=666 Below average	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.3219	+0.111	+0.297	+0.021 ok
		split	starter x1.3016 at 0.627 share (log5 0.3219 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.163 at 0.373 share (log5 0.2877 vs pen 0.2587) = x1.2499 \| starter alone would have been +0.444
		Walkswhole staff	0.424 → 0.323	-0.101	0.0889	0.1243n=666 Very good	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0749	+0.151	-0.154	-0.056 ok
		split	starter x0.6027 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0749 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.0305 at 0.373 share (log5 0.1281 vs pen 0.0917) = x0.7624 \| starter alone would have been -0.168
		Home runswhole staff	0.113 → 0.099	-0.015	0.0304	0.0312n=666 Average	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0266	+0.004	-0.019	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8508 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0266 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.9057 at 0.373 share (log5 0.0283 vs pen 0.0275) = x0.8713 \| starter alone would have been -0.017
William Contreras	C	Hitswhole staff	0.964 → 0.915	-0.048	0.2169	0.2303n=630 Good	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2206	+0.057	-0.039	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.958 at 0.627 share (log5 0.2206 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9359 at 0.373 share (log5 0.2155 vs pen 0.2027) = x0.9498 \| starter alone would have been -0.040
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.762 → 0.984	+0.222	0.2212	0.1529n=630 Good	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.2068	-0.289	+0.295	-0.067 ok
		split	starter x1.3528 at 0.627 share (log5 0.2068 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.1873 at 0.373 share (log5 0.1815 vs pen 0.2587) = x1.291 \| starter alone would have been +0.269
		Walkswhole staff	0.381 → 0.289	-0.092	0.0889	0.0942n=630 Average	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0560	+0.022	-0.153	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.5946 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0560 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.0316 at 0.373 share (log5 0.0972 vs pen 0.0917) = x0.7577 \| starter alone would have been -0.154
		Home runswhole staff	0.117 → 0.102	-0.015	0.0304	0.0291n=630 Average	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0248	-0.005	-0.019	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8505 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0248 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.9056 at 0.373 share (log5 0.0264 vs pen 0.0275) = x0.8711 \| starter alone would have been -0.017
Jake Bauers	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.861 → 0.817	-0.044	0.2169	0.2179n=567 Average	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2086	+0.004	-0.038	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9574 at 0.627 share (log5 0.2086 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.935 at 0.373 share (log5 0.2037 vs pen 0.2027) = x0.949 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.454 → 1.806	+0.351	0.2212	0.2676n=567 Below average	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.3455	+0.190	+0.285	+0.033 ok
		split	starter x1.2911 at 0.627 share (log5 0.3455 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.1579 at 0.373 share (log5 0.3099 vs pen 0.2587) = x1.2414 \| starter alone would have been +0.423
		Walkswhole staff	0.477 → 0.365	-0.111	0.0889	0.1510n=567 Very good	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0921	+0.254	-0.148	-0.093 ok
		split	starter x0.6101 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0921 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.0295 at 0.373 share (log5 0.1554 vs pen 0.0917) = x0.7667 \| starter alone would have been -0.186
		Home runswhole staff	0.142 → 0.124	-0.018	0.0304	0.0397n=567 Good	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0338	+0.038	-0.019	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8519 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0338 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.9065 at 0.373 share (log5 0.0360 vs pen 0.0275) = x0.8723 \| starter alone would have been -0.021
Andrew Vaughn	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.845 → 0.803	-0.042	0.2169	0.2385n=329 Very good	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2286	+0.080	-0.034	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9585 at 0.627 share (log5 0.2286 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9366 at 0.373 share (log5 0.2234 vs pen 0.2027) = x0.9503 \| starter alone would have been -0.035
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.880 → 1.130	+0.250	0.2212	0.1688n=329 Good	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.2269	-0.194	+0.259	-0.043 ok
		split	starter x1.3439 at 0.627 share (log5 0.2269 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.1831 at 0.373 share (log5 0.1998 vs pen 0.2587) = x1.2839 \| starter alone would have been +0.303
		Walkswhole staff	0.338 → 0.256	-0.081	0.0889	0.1017n=329 Good	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0607	+0.048	-0.134	-0.018 ok
		split	starter x0.5966 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0607 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.0313 at 0.373 share (log5 0.1049 vs pen 0.0917) = x0.7589 \| starter alone would have been -0.136
		Home runswhole staff	0.076 → 0.066	-0.010	0.0304	0.0237n=329 Below average	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0201	-0.025	-0.017	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8498 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0201 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.9051 at 0.373 share (log5 0.0214 vs pen 0.0275) = x0.8704 \| starter alone would have been -0.011
Garrett Mitchell	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.862 → 0.818	-0.044	0.2169	0.2215n=519 Average	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2121	+0.018	-0.036	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9576 at 0.627 share (log5 0.2121 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9352 at 0.373 share (log5 0.2072 vs pen 0.2027) = x0.9492 \| starter alone would have been -0.036
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.631 → 2.000	+0.368	0.2212	0.3061n=519 Poor	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.3893	+0.329	+0.270	+0.052 ok
		split	starter x1.2717 at 0.627 share (log5 0.3893 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.1484 at 0.373 share (log5 0.3515 vs pen 0.2587) = x1.2257 \| starter alone would have been +0.443
		Walkswhole staff	0.326 → 0.248	-0.078	0.0889	0.1091n=519 Good	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0653	+0.078	-0.140	-0.029 ok
		split	starter x0.5985 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0653 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.031 at 0.373 share (log5 0.1124 vs pen 0.0917) = x0.76 \| starter alone would have been -0.131
		Home runswhole staff	0.081 → 0.070	-0.011	0.0304	0.0243n=519 Below average	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0206	-0.024	-0.018	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8499 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0206 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.9051 at 0.373 share (log5 0.0220 vs pen 0.0275) = x0.8705 \| starter alone would have been -0.012
Cooper Pratt	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.821 → 0.779	-0.041	0.2169	0.2255n=258 Good	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2160	+0.032	-0.034	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9578 at 0.627 share (log5 0.2160 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9356 at 0.373 share (log5 0.2110 vs pen 0.2027) = x0.9495 \| starter alone would have been -0.035
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.879 → 1.122	+0.243	0.2212	0.1851n=258 Good	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.2471	-0.134	+0.260	-0.029 ok
		split	starter x1.3349 at 0.627 share (log5 0.2471 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.1789 at 0.373 share (log5 0.2182 vs pen 0.2587) = x1.2767 \| starter alone would have been +0.294
		Walkswhole staff	0.318 → 0.241	-0.077	0.0889	0.0917n=258 Average	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0545	+0.010	-0.135	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.5939 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0545 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.0316 at 0.373 share (log5 0.0946 vs pen 0.0917) = x0.7573 \| starter alone would have been -0.129
		Home runswhole staff	0.073 → 0.064	-0.009	0.0304	0.0211n=258 Below average	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0179	-0.035	-0.017	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8495 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0179 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.9049 at 0.373 share (log5 0.0191 vs pen 0.0275) = x0.8702 \| starter alone would have been -0.011
Luis Lara	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.814 → 0.772	-0.042	0.2169	0.2182n=208 Average	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2090	+0.005	-0.035	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9574 at 0.627 share (log5 0.2090 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.935 at 0.373 share (log5 0.2041 vs pen 0.2027) = x0.949 \| starter alone would have been -0.035
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.070 → 1.349	+0.279	0.2212	0.2212n=208 Average	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.2909	-0.000	+0.266	0 ok
		split	starter x1.3154 at 0.627 share (log5 0.2909 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.1697 at 0.373 share (log5 0.2587 vs pen 0.2587) = x1.261 \| starter alone would have been +0.337
		Walkswhole staff	0.307 → 0.232	-0.075	0.0889	0.0843n=208 Average	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0499	-0.017	-0.138	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.592 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0499 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.0319 at 0.373 share (log5 0.0870 vs pen 0.0917) = x0.7562 \| starter alone would have been -0.125
		Home runswhole staff	0.069 → 0.060	-0.009	0.0304	0.0191n=208 Poor	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0162	-0.043	-0.017	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.8492 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0162 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.9047 at 0.373 share (log5 0.0173 vs pen 0.0275) = x0.8699 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
Joey Ortiz	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.756 → 0.718	-0.038	0.2169	0.2271n=403 Good	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2175	+0.037	-0.034	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9579 at 0.627 share (log5 0.2175 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9357 at 0.373 share (log5 0.2125 vs pen 0.2027) = x0.9496 \| starter alone would have been -0.032
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.115 → 1.415	+0.301	0.2212	0.2010n=403 Average	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.2665	-0.074	+0.254	-0.015 ok
		split	starter x1.3263 at 0.627 share (log5 0.2665 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.1748 at 0.373 share (log5 0.2361 vs pen 0.2587) = x1.2697 \| starter alone would have been +0.364
		Walkswhole staff	0.295 → 0.223	-0.072	0.0889	0.0873n=403 Average	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0518	-0.006	-0.132	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.5927 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0518 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.0318 at 0.373 share (log5 0.0901 vs pen 0.0917) = x0.7566 \| starter alone would have been -0.120
		Home runswhole staff	0.083 → 0.072	-0.011	0.0304	0.0255n=403 Below average	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0217	-0.018	-0.017	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.85 at 0.627 share (log5 0.0217 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.9052 at 0.373 share (log5 0.0231 vs pen 0.0275) = x0.8706 \| starter alone would have been -0.012
STARTER Jacob Misiorowski18.853 BF	Starter	Hits	3.028 → 3.134	+0.106	0.2169	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.22408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1737	-0.924	+0.134	-0.024 ok
		Strikeouts	6.481 → 5.994	-0.488	0.2212	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.20138/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3322	+2.603	-0.375	-0.134 ok
		Walks	1.242 → 1.431	+0.189	0.0889	0.0727n=640 Good	0.10228/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0838	-0.305	+0.250	-0.041 ok
		Home runs	0.165 → 0.191	+0.026	0.0304	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.03518/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0272	-0.129	+0.089	-0.020 ok
RELIEVER JoJo Romero3.4172 BF	Long Reliever	Hits	1.008 → 1.041	+0.033	0.2169	0.2159n=233 Average	0.22408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2230	-0.003	+0.024	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.385 → 1.261	-0.124	0.2212	0.2259n=233 Average	0.20138/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2056	+0.016	-0.068	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.369 → 0.425	+0.056	0.0889	0.0794n=233 Average	0.10228/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0914	-0.033	+0.045	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.184 → 0.213	+0.029	0.0304	0.0303n=233 Average	0.03518/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	-0.000	+0.016	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Aaron Ashby3.262 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.995 → 1.028	+0.033	0.2169	0.2024n=372 Good	0.22408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2091	-0.047	+0.023	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.853 → 1.699	-0.154	0.2212	0.2869n=372 Very good	0.20138/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2631	+0.214	-0.065	-0.013 ok
		Walks	0.633 → 0.726	+0.093	0.0889	0.1039n=372 Below average	0.10228/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1191	+0.049	+0.043	+0.006 ok
		Home runs	0.094 → 0.109	+0.015	0.0304	0.0251n=372 Good	0.03518/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0291	-0.017	+0.015	-0.003 ok
RELIEVER DL Hall3.0923 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.537 → 0.556	+0.019	0.2169	0.1738n=234 Very good	0.22408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1798	-0.133	+0.022	-0.003 ok
		Strikeouts	0.785 → 0.717	-0.068	0.2212	0.2538n=234 Good	0.20138/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2318	+0.101	-0.062	-0.006 ok
		Walks	0.379 → 0.433	+0.054	0.0889	0.1226n=234 Poor	0.10228/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1401	+0.104	+0.041	+0.013 ok
		Home runs	0.084 → 0.098	+0.013	0.0304	0.0273n=234 Average	0.03518/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0316	-0.010	+0.015	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Antonio Senzatela2.8324 BF	Middle Reliever	Hits	1.033 → 1.066	+0.033	0.2169	0.2274n=303 Below average	0.22408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2348	+0.030	+0.020	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.768 → 0.697	-0.071	0.2212	0.1977n=303 Below average	0.20138/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1794	-0.067	-0.056	+0.005 ok
		Walks	0.412 → 0.474	+0.062	0.0889	0.0847n=303 Average	0.10228/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0974	-0.012	+0.038	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.059 → 0.068	+0.009	0.0304	0.0261n=303 Good	0.03518/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0302	-0.012	+0.013	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Abner Uribe2.4876 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.502 → 0.519	+0.017	0.2169	0.2018n=230 Good	0.22408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2086	-0.037	+0.018	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.631 → 0.577	-0.055	0.2212	0.2538n=230 Good	0.20138/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2319	+0.081	-0.050	-0.005 ok
		Walks	0.205 → 0.236	+0.031	0.0889	0.0826n=230 Average	0.10228/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0950	-0.016	+0.033	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.061 → 0.070	+0.010	0.0304	0.0245n=230 Very good	0.03518/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0283	-0.015	+0.012	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Trevor Megill2.4136 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.467 → 0.483	+0.016	0.2169	0.1936n=242 Very good	0.22408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2001	-0.056	+0.017	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.650 → 0.595	-0.055	0.2212	0.2692n=242 Good	0.20138/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2464	+0.116	-0.048	-0.007 ok
		Walks	0.175 → 0.202	+0.027	0.0889	0.0726n=242 Good	0.10228/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0837	-0.039	+0.032	-0.005 ok
		Home runs	0.051 → 0.059	+0.008	0.0304	0.0212n=242 Very good	0.03518/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0245	-0.022	+0.011	-0.003 ok
RELIEVER Chad Patrick0.5488 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.109 → 0.113	+0.004	0.2169	0.1991n=438 Good	0.22408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2058	-0.010	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.117 → 0.107	-0.011	0.2212	0.2137n=438 Average	0.20138/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1943	-0.004	-0.011	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.057 → 0.066	+0.008	0.0889	0.1041n=438 Below average	0.10228/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1194	+0.008	+0.007	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.015 → 0.018	+0.002	0.0304	0.0278n=438 Average	0.03518/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0321	-0.001	+0.003	-0.000 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Tarik Skubal	Starter	22.4	5.2	5.757	4 / 3.924	9 / 6.300	2 / 1.186	3 / 1.444	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	3.9	2.1	1.000	2 / 0.458	2 / 1.244	0 / 0.482	1 / 0.229	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	18.9	5.0	4.861	3 / 3.028	5 / 6.481	1 / 1.242	0 / 0.786	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
JoJo Romero	Long Reliever	5.4	1.1	1.336	0 / 1.008	1 / 1.385	1 / 0.369	0 / 0.413	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	4.5	1.0	1.002	0 / 1.033	1 / 0.768	0 / 0.412	0 / 0.377	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	6.6	1.2	1.671	0 / 0.995	2 / 1.853	1 / 0.633	0 / 0.340	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity136 checks	PASS	136 of 136 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 2
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.757
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Tarik Skubal projected 22.4 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Alex Vesia projected 3.9 batters faced; real relievers run p01-p99 1-19, median 4, mean 5.01
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.861
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Jacob Misiorowski projected 18.9 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

Provenance. Read only from published artifacts and stored KPI value documents. Nothing is recomputed, so this document cannot disagree with what was published. Per-player metric adjustments are a measurement of the catalog at player level and are labelled as such throughout; the pipeline itself moved team runs, the win probability, and hitter lines by one club-wide ratio.