Every player, club and KPI on the settled card scored against the real lines. Expectations are rescaled to the plate appearances or batters faced each player really had. Gain is how much closer the KPI line was than the line before it: positive, the KPI helped. Rolling ledger over 20 slates in 21 days.
| Reason | Hitter metric rows | Pitchers |
|---|---|---|
| playing time off the projection | 0 | 0 |
| KPI moved the wrong way | 0 | 0 |
| KPI gave no signal | 0 | 0 |
| surprise beyond the expectation | 0 | 0 |
| ordinary variance | 0 | 0 |
| workload off the projection | 0 | 0 |
| projected, did not pitch | 0 | 0 |
| pitched, not projected | 0 | 0 |
| Game | Club | Actual | Baseline | KPI alone | Blend | Pub | KPI run effect | Cause | Hitter gain H/SO/BB/HR | Opp. pitching gain | Card wrong | SP outs err | Pen share err | Wrong-way features |
|---|
| Game | Club | Hitter | PA | PA err | Metric | Before KPI | KPI | Actual | Gain | Direction | Why | Driver | Own KPI | Opp. SP KPI | SP mult | Pen mult |
|---|
| Game | Club | Pitcher | Role | Listed as | P(pitch) | Pitched | Proj BF | Actual BF | Workload err | KPI line/actual (gain) | Gain | Why |
|---|
| Metric | Side | KPI | Band | Rows | Days | Mean gain | Interval | Right way | Misleading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SO | pitcher | pitcher_strikeout_rate | elite | 180 | 9 | -0.0270 | (-0.05321, 0.01146) | 0.46 | no |
| BB | pitcher | pitcher_walk_rate | poor | 61 | 5 | -0.0181 | - | 0.28 | no |
| HR | pitcher | pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed | poor | 200 | 9 | -0.0151 | (-0.01922, -0.01174) | 0.18 | yes |
| SO | batter | batter_strikeout_rate | average | 798 | 11 | -0.0089 | (-0.01814, -0.00122) | 0.50 | yes |
| HR | pitcher | pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed | weak | 248 | 7 | -0.0058 | (-0.00747, -0.00414) | 0.16 | yes |
| BB | pitcher | pitcher_walk_rate | weak | 110 | 5 | -0.0056 | - | 0.40 | no |
| SO | pitcher | pitcher_strikeout_rate | strong | 211 | 7 | -0.0048 | (-0.02328, 0.01208) | 0.55 | no |
| H | batter | derived_batter_hit_rate | poor | 118 | 10 | -0.0047 | - | 0.47 | no |
| SO | pitcher | pitcher_strikeout_rate | average | 723 | 11 | -0.0041 | (-0.00728, -0.00157) | 0.48 | yes |
| H | pitcher | derived_pitcher_hit_rate_allowed | weak | 313 | 7 | -0.0033 | (-0.00856, -0.00018) | 0.50 | yes |
| SO | batter | batter_strikeout_rate | strong | 299 | 11 | -0.0033 | (-0.01103, 0.00302) | 0.54 | no |
| H | batter | derived_batter_hit_rate | elite | 175 | 10 | -0.0032 | (-0.01119, 0.00335) | 0.46 | no |
| SO | batter | batter_strikeout_rate | weak | 243 | 9 | -0.0027 | (-0.01038, 0.00742) | 0.48 | no |
| H | pitcher | derived_pitcher_hit_rate_allowed | strong | 293 | 9 | -0.0022 | (-0.00688, 0.00286) | 0.50 | no |
| BB | pitcher | pitcher_walk_rate | average | 762 | 11 | -0.0004 | (-0.00102, 0.00023) | 0.42 | no |
| H | batter | derived_batter_hit_rate | strong | 303 | 11 | +0.0003 | (-0.00485, 0.00439) | 0.51 | no |
| H | batter | derived_batter_hit_rate | average | 772 | 11 | +0.0003 | (-0.0016, 0.00258) | 0.53 | no |
| BB | batter | batter_walk_rate | average | 756 | 11 | +0.0003 | (-0.00167, 0.00158) | 0.51 | no |
| H | pitcher | derived_pitcher_hit_rate_allowed | average | 704 | 11 | +0.0006 | (-0.00042, 0.00186) | 0.52 | no |
| HR | batter | batter_home_run_rate | poor | 116 | 11 | +0.0008 | - | 0.56 | no |
| BB | batter | batter_walk_rate | elite | 159 | 10 | +0.0009 | (-0.00276, 0.00482) | 0.51 | no |
| SO | batter | batter_strikeout_rate | poor | 98 | 10 | +0.0014 | - | 0.54 | no |
| BB | batter | batter_walk_rate | poor | 119 | 10 | +0.0018 | - | 0.54 | no |
| HR | batter | batter_home_run_rate | weak | 194 | 11 | +0.0022 | (0.00031, 0.00436) | 0.61 | no |
| BB | batter | batter_walk_rate | weak | 251 | 11 | +0.0022 | (0.00065, 0.00395) | 0.60 | no |
| H | batter | derived_batter_hit_rate | weak | 207 | 11 | +0.0023 | (-0.0035, 0.00817) | 0.55 | no |
| HR | batter | batter_home_run_rate | average | 824 | 11 | +0.0027 | (0.00093, 0.00491) | 0.63 | no |
| H | pitcher | derived_pitcher_hit_rate_allowed | poor | 163 | 6 | +0.0027 | (-0.0054, 0.00978) | 0.53 | no |
| SO | pitcher | pitcher_strikeout_rate | weak | 337 | 9 | +0.0035 | (-0.00339, 0.01226) | 0.55 | no |
| HR | pitcher | pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed | average | 767 | 11 | +0.0046 | (0.00338, 0.00591) | 0.74 | no |
| HR | batter | batter_home_run_rate | strong | 282 | 11 | +0.0049 | (0.00092, 0.00987) | 0.63 | no |
| H | pitcher | derived_pitcher_hit_rate_allowed | elite | 102 | 7 | +0.0050 | - | 0.55 | no |
| BB | pitcher | pitcher_walk_rate | strong | 358 | 9 | +0.0054 | (0.0033, 0.00779) | 0.74 | no |
| BB | batter | batter_walk_rate | strong | 290 | 11 | +0.0056 | (0.00294, 0.00925) | 0.57 | no |
| HR | batter | batter_home_run_rate | elite | 159 | 10 | +0.0056 | (0.00173, 0.01026) | 0.60 | no |
| SO | pitcher | pitcher_strikeout_rate | poor | 124 | 6 | +0.0059 | - | 0.58 | no |
| BB | pitcher | pitcher_walk_rate | elite | 284 | 9 | +0.0102 | (0.00482, 0.01544) | 0.72 | no |
| SO | batter | batter_strikeout_rate | elite | 137 | 10 | +0.0118 | - | 0.56 | no |
| HR | pitcher | pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed | strong | 224 | 8 | +0.0132 | (0.01097, 0.01649) | 0.92 | no |
| HR | pitcher | pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed | elite | 136 | 9 | +0.0224 | - | 0.92 | no |
| Club | Games | MAE baseline | MAE blend | Run bias | Causes | Card wrong / game | SP outs err | Pen share err | Recurring wrong-way features | Chronic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 6 | 3.33 | 3.67 | +0.92 | variance 2, kpi_direction 3, outlier_game 1 | 0.50 | -0.8 | +0.025 | home_sp_suppress x3, home_pen_minus_sp x2, home_off_ground x2, home_off_discipline x2 | yes |
| CLE | 7 | 4.14 | 3.38 | -0.24 | lineup 1, outlier_game 3, variance 2, layer_refused 1 | 0.71 | +0.1 | +0.009 | away_off_discipline x3, away_off_contact x3, away_x_fastball x2, away_off_power_spread x2 | no |
| NYY | 7 | 3.43 | 3.38 | -0.75 | variance 2, lineup 2, starter_length 1, outlier_game 1, bullpen_exposure 1 | 1.43 | +1.1 | -0.035 | home_off_discipline x3, home_off_worst3_discipline x3, away_off_contact x3, away_x_suppress x2 | no |
| HOU | 7 | 2.14 | 3.18 | -2.51 | variance 3, kpi_direction 3, layer_refused 1 | 0.57 | +0.9 | -0.080 | away_off_contact_spread x4, away_off_worst3_discipline x4, away_off_power x3, home_platoon_whiff x3 | yes |
| KC | 6 | 3.17 | 3.15 | -1.43 | outlier_game 1, variance 2, starter_length 1, kpi_direction 1, layer_refused 1 | 0.67 | +4.7 | -0.103 | away_off_discipline_spread x4, away_sp_velocity x3, home_off_discipline x2, home_off_top3_contact x2 | no |
| ARI | 6 | 3.00 | 3.10 | -1.50 | lineup 1, variance 1, outlier_game 2, kpi_direction 2 | 1.17 | +1.7 | -0.016 | home_off_top3_contact x4, away_platoon_whiff x3, home_off_qualified_share x3, home_sp_suppress x3 | yes |
| CHC | 7 | 3.14 | 2.98 | +2.42 | variance 3, starter_length 1, lineup 1, bullpen_exposure 1, kpi_direction 1 | 1.00 | +1.4 | -0.066 | home_off_power x4, home_off_ground x3, home_x_fastball x3, home_off_qualified_share x3 | no |
| OAK | 6 | 2.80 | 2.75 | +0.67 | layer_refused 2, starter_length 2, variance 2 | 2.00 | +3.3 | -0.114 | away_sp_velocity x3, home_off_ground x3, home_pen_minus_sp x2, home_sp_ground x2 | no |
| CHW | 8 | 2.88 | 2.72 | -1.29 | lineup 5, variance 2, starter_length 1 | 3.50 | +4.2 | -0.119 | home_off_qualified_share x5, home_platoon_whiff x4, away_off_worst3_discipline x4, home_off_top3_contact x2 | no |
| TB | 7 | 2.86 | 2.71 | +0.14 | lineup 2, starter_length 2, variance 2, kpi_direction 1 | 1.29 | +3.0 | -0.054 | away_off_discipline x4, away_off_contact x3, away_off_power_spread x3, away_off_contact_spread x2 | no |
| LAD | 8 | 1.88 | 2.56 | +2.00 | variance 3, outlier_game 1, layer_refused 4 | 0.62 | +3.9 | -0.125 | home_off_ground x3, home_pen_minus_sp x2, away_off_discipline_spread x2, away_off_contact x2 | yes |
| ATL | 10 | 2.50 | 2.49 | +0.55 | outlier_game 1, starter_length 4, kpi_direction 2, variance 2, layer_refused 1 | 0.50 | +0.9 | -0.039 | home_sp_command x3, home_pen_minus_sp x3, home_platoon_barrel x3, home_off_ground_spread x3 | no |
| SEA | 6 | 2.33 | 2.39 | -0.34 | starter_length 2, variance 4 | 0.50 | +2.7 | -0.070 | home_off_ground x4, away_off_power_spread x3, home_off_contact_spread x3, home_off_ground_spread x2 | yes |
| MIN | 6 | 2.50 | 2.39 | -0.20 | variance 2, lineup 1, layer_refused 1, kpi_direction 1, starter_length 1 | 0.67 | +2.8 | -0.046 | home_off_qualified_share x2, home_sp_suppress x2, home_platoon_barrel x2, away_sp_ground x2 | no |
| PHI | 8 | 2.38 | 2.29 | +0.94 | starter_length 3, variance 2, outlier_game 1, bullpen_exposure 1, kpi_direction 1 | 0.25 | +4.7 | -0.085 | home_off_ground_spread x4, home_off_power x3, home_off_contact_spread x3, away_off_power_spread x3 | no |
| PIT | 6 | 2.50 | 2.23 | +0.67 | lineup 1, outlier_game 1, starter_length 1, kpi_direction 2, variance 1 | 0.50 | +0.6 | +0.006 | home_off_ground_spread x3, away_pen_share x3, home_off_power_spread x3, home_platoon_barrel x3 | no |
| BOS | 7 | 1.71 | 2.19 | +2.19 | lineup 2, variance 2, starter_length 2, kpi_direction 1 | 1.00 | +4.2 | -0.113 | away_off_ground x6, away_off_power_spread x4, away_x_suppress x3, away_off_top3_contact x3 | yes |
| SD | 9 | 2.44 | 2.18 | -1.50 | starter_length 2, kpi_direction 2, bullpen_exposure 1, outlier_game 2, layer_refused 1, variance 1 | 0.44 | +3.4 | -0.060 | home_off_qualified_share x4, home_off_discipline_spread x4, home_off_ground x4, home_platoon_barrel x3 | no |
| BAL | 4 | 2.25 | 2.16 | -1.12 | variance 2, kpi_direction 1, lineup 1 | 1.50 | +3.6 | -0.007 | home_off_discipline x2, away_off_contact x2, home_off_top3_contact x2, home_platoon_whiff x2 | no |
| DET | 5 | 2.00 | 2.10 | +0.46 | variance 1, starter_length 3, kpi_direction 1 | 0.60 | +6.4 | -0.216 | away_off_ground x3, away_off_top3_contact x3, away_off_contact_spread x3, home_sp_command x2 | no |
| NYM | 6 | 2.33 | 1.98 | +0.22 | variance 4, starter_length 1, kpi_direction 1 | 0.33 | +1.9 | -0.089 | home_sp_suppress x4, home_platoon_whiff x3, away_off_contact x3, away_off_contact_spread x3 | no |
| MIA | 6 | 1.83 | 1.89 | +0.61 | lineup 1, variance 3, kpi_direction 1, bullpen_exposure 1 | 1.00 | +0.5 | -0.034 | home_off_qualified_share x3, home_off_ground_spread x3, away_off_contact_spread x2, home_off_power_spread x2 | yes |
| STL | 6 | 1.67 | 1.88 | +0.92 | bullpen_exposure 1, starter_length 1, variance 1, kpi_direction 3 | 1.00 | +0.2 | -0.018 | home_off_power_spread x3, home_platoon_whiff x3, home_sp_suppress x3, away_sp_whiff x2 | yes |
| SF | 6 | 1.67 | 1.81 | +1.36 | lineup 2, layer_refused 4 | 1.67 | +1.9 | -0.060 | home_off_qualified_share x1, away_off_power_spread x1, home_off_ground_spread x1, away_off_ground_spread x1 | yes |
| TOR | 5 | 1.80 | 1.76 | +1.62 | kpi_direction 1, lineup 1, variance 2, starter_length 1 | 1.00 | -0.4 | +0.040 | home_platoon_whiff x2, away_sp_velocity x2, away_off_discipline x2, home_off_power_spread x2 | no |
| CIN | 6 | 2.17 | 1.74 | +0.44 | lineup 3, kpi_direction 1, starter_length 1, bullpen_exposure 1 | 1.50 | +2.9 | -0.072 | away_off_contact x4, away_sp_ground x4, home_platoon_barrel x3, home_off_top3_contact x3 | no |
| MIL | 8 | 1.38 | 1.65 | +0.20 | variance 4, kpi_direction 3, layer_refused 1 | 0.75 | +1.6 | -0.026 | home_off_power_spread x3, away_off_qualified_share x3, home_off_discipline x3, home_platoon_barrel x3 | yes |
| LAA | 6 | 1.80 | 1.61 | -0.45 | layer_refused 1, variance 3, starter_length 1, bullpen_exposure 1 | 1.17 | +2.9 | -0.105 | home_platoon_whiff x3, away_off_discipline x3, away_off_worst3_discipline x3, away_off_power_spread x3 | no |
| WAS | 5 | 1.80 | 1.59 | +0.20 | lineup 1, variance 2, starter_length 1, outlier_game 1 | 0.80 | +1.1 | -0.003 | away_off_contact_spread x3, home_off_power_spread x2, away_sp_ground x2, away_x_suppress x2 | no |
| TEX | 6 | 1.67 | 1.26 | +0.85 | lineup 1, variance 5 | 0.50 | -1.9 | +0.120 | away_off_contact_spread x5, home_off_discipline x3, home_off_power x2, away_off_contact x2 | no |
| Scope | Subject | Finding | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| kpi | pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed (poor) on HR | adjustments made HR worse over 200 hitter-games in 9 days, mean gain -0.0151, interval (-0.01922, -0.01174) | review this KPI's weight in the matchup multiplier; it is an operator change to the recipe |
| kpi | batter_strikeout_rate (average) on SO | adjustments made SO worse over 798 hitter-games in 11 days, mean gain -0.0089, interval (-0.01814, -0.00122) | review this KPI's weight in the matchup multiplier; it is an operator change to the recipe |
| kpi | pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed (weak) on HR | adjustments made HR worse over 248 hitter-games in 7 days, mean gain -0.0058, interval (-0.00747, -0.00414) | review this KPI's weight in the matchup multiplier; it is an operator change to the recipe |
| kpi | pitcher_strikeout_rate (average) on SO | adjustments made SO worse over 723 hitter-games in 11 days, mean gain -0.0041, interval (-0.00728, -0.00157) | review this KPI's weight in the matchup multiplier; it is an operator change to the recipe |
| kpi | derived_pitcher_hit_rate_allowed (weak) on H | adjustments made H worse over 313 hitter-games in 7 days, mean gain -0.0033, interval (-0.00856, -0.00018) | review this KPI's weight in the matchup multiplier; it is an operator change to the recipe |
| club | SF | KPI blend worse than the baseline over 6 games (MAE 1.813 vs 1.667, bias +1.357) | check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage |
| club | ARI | KPI blend worse than the baseline over 6 games (MAE 3.1 vs 3.0, bias -1.5) | check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage |
| club | COL | KPI blend worse than the baseline over 6 games (MAE 3.673 vs 3.333, bias +0.924) | check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage |
| club | BOS | KPI blend worse than the baseline over 7 games (MAE 2.185 vs 1.714, bias +2.185) | check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage |
| club | HOU | KPI blend worse than the baseline over 7 games (MAE 3.176 vs 2.143, bias -2.509) | check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage |
| club | SEA | KPI blend worse than the baseline over 6 games (MAE 2.39 vs 2.333, bias -0.345) | check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage |
| club | MIA | KPI blend worse than the baseline over 6 games (MAE 1.892 vs 1.833, bias +0.606) | check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage |
| club | MIL | KPI blend worse than the baseline over 8 games (MAE 1.645 vs 1.375, bias +0.201) | check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage |
| club | LAD | KPI blend worse than the baseline over 8 games (MAE 2.562 vs 1.875, bias +2.004) | check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage |
| club | STL | KPI blend worse than the baseline over 6 games (MAE 1.884 vs 1.667, bias +0.919) | check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage |
| player | Yuki Matsui (SD) | KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.12 over 6 games, bias +0.44), BB (gain -0.69 over 6 games, bias +0.63), HR (gain -0.02 over 6 games, bias +0.15) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Trea Turner (PHI) | KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.61 over 8 games, bias +0.34) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.58 over 8 games, bias +0.91), BB (gain -0.17 over 8 games, bias -0.25) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Jonny DeLuca (TB) | KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.55 over 6 games, bias +0.06) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Jordan Walker (STL) | KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.53 over 6 games, bias +0.18) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Gabriel Moreno (ARI) | KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.47 over 5 games, bias -0.20) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Christian Walker (HOU) | KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.45 over 7 games, bias +0.47) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Ketel Marte (ARI) | KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.42 over 6 games, bias +0.23) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Tim Tawa (ARI) | KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.40 over 6 games, bias -0.04) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Colson Montgomery (CHW) | KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.28 over 6 games, bias +0.64), SO (gain -0.40 over 6 games, bias -0.66) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Jac Caglianone (KC) | KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.13 over 5 games, bias -0.91), SO (gain -0.39 over 5 games, bias +0.20) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | George Lombard Jr. (NYY) | KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.15 over 6 games, bias -0.28), SO (gain -0.38 over 6 games, bias -0.12) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Drake Baldwin (ATL) | KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.38 over 9 games, bias +0.51), HR (gain -0.01 over 9 games, bias +0.05) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Yandy Díaz (TB) | KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.21 over 5 games, bias -0.52), SO (gain -0.38 over 5 games, bias +0.88) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Ozzie Albies (ATL) | KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.35 over 10 games, bias -0.34), BB (gain -0.19 over 10 games, bias -0.10) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Christian Moore (LAA) | KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.34 over 6 games, bias +0.22) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Heriberto Hernández (MIA) | KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.09 over 6 games, bias +0.09), SO (gain -0.34 over 6 games, bias +0.49) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Bryce Harper (PHI) | KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.33 over 8 games, bias +0.05) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Cam Smith (HOU) | KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.08 over 7 games, bias +0.05), SO (gain -0.32 over 7 games, bias -0.05), HR (gain -0.04 over 7 games, bias +0.05) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Corbin Carroll (ARI) | KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.32 over 6 games, bias +0.24) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Ty France (SD) | KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.31 over 9 games, bias +0.07) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Kody Clemens (MIN) | KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.31 over 5 games, bias +0.35) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Danny Jansen (TEX) | KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.29 over 6 games, bias +0.40) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Carson Benge (NYM) | KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.13 over 6 games, bias -0.64), SO (gain -0.28 over 6 games, bias +0.04) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |
| player | Taylor Trammell (HOU) | KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.10 over 5 games, bias +0.71), SO (gain -0.28 over 5 games, bias -0.42), HR (gain -0.03 over 5 games, bias +0.12) | his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change |