Odds impact on the published slate · 2026-10-10

For every priced player: the model line before the market blend, the expectation the cross-book no-vig price implies, the line we published, and how far the blend moved it. Published = model × m^w, where m prices the model at the market and w is fitted per stat on settled props strictly before this slate. Club score, winner and win probability are never moved by the blend. Generated 2026-10-10 23:39 UTC.

Games

1 with the blend applied

Players priced

161 player-stat lines

Lines moved

145

published differs from the model

Mean absolute move

0.065

per player-stat, in stat units

Per game

Game	Published score	Home win	Odds requested	Blend	Hitters moved	Starters moved	Reason
20261010_CHW@CLE	CHW 5 - 6 CLE	0.527	yes	applied	15	2

Blend weights in force

w = 0 keeps the model, w = 1 publishes the market. Each weight is shrunk toward 0.5 with strength 100 player-games, so a thin ledger stays near the prior.

Stat	Weight used	Evidence optimum	Settled rows	Dates	Source
batter:1B	0.818	1.000	174	5	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:2B	0.182	0.000	174	5	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:3B	0.463	0.000	8	5	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:BB	0.813	1.000	168	5	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:H	0.722	0.850	174	5	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:HR	0.183	0.000	173	5	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:R	0.818	1.000	174	5	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:RBI	0.722	0.850	174	5	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:SO	0.500	–	0	0	prior_only
pitcher:BB	0.580	1.000	19	4	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
pitcher:ER	0.518	0.610	20	4	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
pitcher:H	0.553	0.820	20	4	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
pitcher:OUTS	0.547	0.780	20	4	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
pitcher:SO	0.583	1.000	20	4	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior

Average movement by stat

Role	Stat	Lines	Model	Market implied	Published	Published minus model
batter	1B	15	0.515	0.492	0.475	-0.040
batter	2B	15	0.163	0.182	0.166	+0.003
batter	3B	2	0.008	0.033	0.008	+0.000
batter	BB	15	0.401	0.419	0.414	+0.013
batter	H	15	0.797	0.722	0.762	-0.035
batter	HR	15	0.109	0.117	0.110	+0.001
batter	HRR	15	1.718	1.311	1.584	-0.134
batter	R	15	0.486	0.436	0.443	-0.042
batter	RBI	15	0.435	0.361	0.379	-0.056
batter	SB	14	0.062	0.105	0.062	+0.000
batter	TB	15	1.307	1.190	1.279	-0.028
pitcher	BB	2	2.053	1.740	1.863	-0.191
pitcher	ER	2	2.062	1.444	1.714	-0.348
pitcher	H	2	3.973	3.334	3.605	-0.368
pitcher	OUTS	2	14.104	13.636	13.719	-0.386
pitcher	SO	2	6.373	5.421	5.795	-0.577

Every player and stat

Game	Club	Player	Stat	Model	Market implied	Market minus model	Published	Moved	Books
CHW@CLE	CHW	Andrew Benintendi	1B	0.459	0.334	-0.125	0.336	-0.123	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Andrew Benintendi	2B	0.163	0.135	-0.029	0.158	-0.006	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Andrew Benintendi	BB	0.318	0.278	-0.040	0.285	-0.033	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Andrew Benintendi	H	0.722	0.527	-0.195	0.593	-0.128	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Andrew Benintendi	HR	0.090	0.092	+0.002	0.090	+0.000	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Andrew Benintendi	HRR	1.614	0.723	-0.891	1.255	-0.358	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Andrew Benintendi	R	0.397	0.311	-0.086	0.325	-0.072	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Andrew Benintendi	RBI	0.495	0.291	-0.204	0.337	-0.158	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Andrew Benintendi	TB	1.174	0.902	-0.271	1.041	-0.133	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Chase Meidroth	1B	0.592	0.563	-0.029	0.547	-0.045	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Chase Meidroth	2B	0.161	0.180	+0.019	0.165	+0.003	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Chase Meidroth	BB	0.355	0.403	+0.048	0.394	+0.039	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Chase Meidroth	H	0.848	0.758	-0.090	0.803	-0.045	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Chase Meidroth	HR	0.089	0.073	-0.016	0.086	-0.003	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Chase Meidroth	HRR	1.847	1.449	-0.398	1.531	-0.316	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Chase Meidroth	R	0.626	0.382	-0.244	0.418	-0.208	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Chase Meidroth	RBI	0.372	0.288	-0.084	0.310	-0.063	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Chase Meidroth	SB	0.025	0.075	+0.050	0.025	+0.000	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Chase Meidroth	TB	1.288	1.120	-0.168	1.237	-0.051	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Colson Montgomery	1B	0.337	0.266	-0.071	0.250	-0.087	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Colson Montgomery	2B	0.139	0.126	-0.013	0.136	-0.003	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Colson Montgomery	BB	0.324	0.315	-0.009	0.317	-0.007	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Colson Montgomery	H	0.614	0.462	-0.152	0.528	-0.086	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Colson Montgomery	HR	0.132	0.152	+0.020	0.135	+0.004	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Colson Montgomery	HRR	1.432	0.779	-0.654	1.222	-0.210	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Colson Montgomery	R	0.411	0.352	-0.058	0.362	-0.048	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Colson Montgomery	RBI	0.408	0.307	-0.101	0.332	-0.076	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Colson Montgomery	SB	0.006	–	–	0.006	+0.000	1
CHW@CLE	CHW	Colson Montgomery	TB	1.160	0.912	-0.248	1.082	-0.078	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Kyle Teel	1B	0.476	0.468	-0.008	0.449	-0.027	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Kyle Teel	2B	0.152	0.176	+0.024	0.157	+0.004	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Kyle Teel	BB	0.440	0.512	+0.071	0.498	+0.057	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Kyle Teel	H	0.742	0.688	-0.055	0.723	-0.019	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Kyle Teel	HR	0.104	0.128	+0.024	0.108	+0.004	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Kyle Teel	HRR	1.773	1.453	-0.320	1.528	-0.245	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Kyle Teel	R	0.543	0.446	-0.097	0.463	-0.081	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Kyle Teel	RBI	0.488	0.299	-0.188	0.343	-0.145	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Kyle Teel	SB	0.000	–	–	0.000	+0.000	1
CHW@CLE	CHW	Kyle Teel	TB	1.226	1.108	-0.117	1.223	-0.003	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Miguel Vargas	1B	0.522	0.471	-0.051	0.472	-0.050	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Miguel Vargas	2B	0.151	0.219	+0.068	0.162	+0.011	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Miguel Vargas	3B	0.007	0.036	+0.029	0.007	-0.000	1
CHW@CLE	CHW	Miguel Vargas	BB	0.555	0.762	+0.207	0.718	+0.163	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Miguel Vargas	H	0.837	0.773	-0.065	0.798	-0.039	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Miguel Vargas	HR	0.157	0.159	+0.002	0.157	+0.000	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Miguel Vargas	HRR	2.078	1.631	-0.448	1.792	-0.286	5
CHW@CLE	CHW	Miguel Vargas	R	0.724	0.513	-0.211	0.546	-0.178	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Miguel Vargas	RBI	0.517	0.424	-0.093	0.448	-0.069	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Miguel Vargas	SB	0.140	0.149	+0.009	0.140	+0.000	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Miguel Vargas	TB	1.474	1.339	-0.134	1.446	-0.027	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	1B	0.374	0.337	-0.037	0.328	-0.046	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	2B	0.150	0.138	-0.011	0.147	-0.002	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	BB	0.662	0.585	-0.077	0.599	-0.063	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	H	0.747	0.658	-0.088	0.697	-0.049	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	HR	0.214	0.209	-0.004	0.213	-0.001	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	HRR	1.869	1.604	-0.265	1.676	-0.193	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	R	0.597	0.491	-0.106	0.509	-0.088	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	RBI	0.526	0.450	-0.076	0.470	-0.056	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	SB	0.015	0.070	+0.055	0.015	+0.000	1
CHW@CLE	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	TB	1.556	1.310	-0.246	1.502	-0.054	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Sam Antonacci	1B	0.598	0.606	+0.008	0.593	-0.005	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Sam Antonacci	2B	0.173	0.230	+0.057	0.182	+0.009	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Sam Antonacci	BB	0.357	0.432	+0.075	0.417	+0.060	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Sam Antonacci	H	0.854	0.849	-0.005	0.862	+0.008	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Sam Antonacci	HR	0.067	0.086	+0.019	0.070	+0.003	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Sam Antonacci	HRR	1.784	1.564	-0.220	1.694	-0.091	5
CHW@CLE	CHW	Sam Antonacci	R	0.569	0.514	-0.056	0.524	-0.046	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Sam Antonacci	RBI	0.361	0.290	-0.070	0.308	-0.052	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Sam Antonacci	SB	0.138	0.141	+0.003	0.138	+0.000	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Sam Antonacci	TB	1.261	1.241	-0.020	1.287	+0.026	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Tristan Peters	1B	0.506	0.457	-0.049	0.440	-0.067	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Tristan Peters	2B	0.181	0.188	+0.007	0.182	+0.001	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Tristan Peters	BB	0.309	0.293	-0.016	0.296	-0.013	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Tristan Peters	H	0.787	0.670	-0.116	0.727	-0.060	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Tristan Peters	HR	0.085	0.119	+0.034	0.090	+0.005	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Tristan Peters	HRR	1.546	0.920	-0.626	1.421	-0.125	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Tristan Peters	R	0.372	0.351	-0.021	0.354	-0.017	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Tristan Peters	RBI	0.387	0.323	-0.065	0.339	-0.048	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Tristan Peters	SB	0.052	0.093	+0.040	0.052	+0.000	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Tristan Peters	TB	1.253	1.064	-0.189	1.210	-0.043	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Sean Burke	BB	1.868	1.404	-0.464	1.583	-0.285	2
CHW@CLE	CHW	Sean Burke	ER	2.191	1.570	-0.621	1.843	-0.348	3
CHW@CLE	CHW	Sean Burke	H	4.216	3.410	-0.806	3.749	-0.467	4
CHW@CLE	CHW	Sean Burke	OUTS	13.665	12.446	-1.219	12.984	-0.681	6
CHW@CLE	CHW	Sean Burke	SO	5.087	3.939	-1.148	4.382	-0.705	7
CHW@CLE	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	1B	0.501	0.505	+0.004	0.487	-0.013	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	2B	0.152	0.180	+0.028	0.157	+0.005	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	BB	0.265	0.306	+0.041	0.298	+0.033	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	H	0.741	0.709	-0.032	0.735	-0.007	4
CHW@CLE	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	HR	0.079	0.090	+0.011	0.081	+0.002	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	HRR	1.596	0.967	-0.629	1.502	-0.094	4
CHW@CLE	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	R	0.474	0.405	-0.069	0.416	-0.057	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	RBI	0.381	0.340	-0.041	0.351	-0.030	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	SB	0.137	0.123	-0.014	0.137	+0.000	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	TB	1.149	1.081	-0.068	1.154	+0.004	5
CHW@CLE	CLE	Chase DeLauter	1B	0.617	0.648	+0.031	0.608	-0.009	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Chase DeLauter	2B	0.193	0.208	+0.015	0.196	+0.003	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Chase DeLauter	BB	0.462	0.475	+0.013	0.473	+0.010	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Chase DeLauter	H	0.937	0.886	-0.051	0.934	-0.003	4
CHW@CLE	CLE	Chase DeLauter	HR	0.111	0.132	+0.021	0.115	+0.003	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Chase DeLauter	HRR	1.882	1.780	-0.102	1.932	+0.050	5
CHW@CLE	CLE	Chase DeLauter	R	0.474	0.506	+0.032	0.500	+0.026	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Chase DeLauter	RBI	0.471	0.509	+0.037	0.498	+0.027	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Chase DeLauter	SB	0.076	0.095	+0.019	0.076	+0.000	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Chase DeLauter	TB	1.493	1.546	+0.053	1.503	+0.010	6
CHW@CLE	CLE	Jo Adell	1B	0.571	0.518	-0.052	0.517	-0.053	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Jo Adell	2B	0.167	0.205	+0.038	0.173	+0.006	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Jo Adell	BB	0.253	0.388	+0.135	0.358	+0.105	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Jo Adell	H	0.876	0.804	-0.073	0.833	-0.043	4
CHW@CLE	CLE	Jo Adell	HR	0.125	0.150	+0.025	0.130	+0.004	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Jo Adell	HRR	1.847	1.668	-0.179	1.828	-0.019	5
CHW@CLE	CLE	Jo Adell	R	0.408	0.481	+0.073	0.466	+0.058	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Jo Adell	RBI	0.563	0.515	-0.048	0.528	-0.035	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Jo Adell	SB	0.031	0.096	+0.065	0.031	+0.000	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Jo Adell	TB	1.445	1.300	-0.145	1.421	-0.024	4
CHW@CLE	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	1B	0.489	0.487	-0.001	0.459	-0.030	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	2B	0.175	0.171	-0.003	0.174	-0.001	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	3B	0.008	0.030	+0.023	0.008	+0.000	1
CHW@CLE	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	BB	0.377	0.359	-0.018	0.362	-0.015	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	H	0.791	0.714	-0.078	0.763	-0.028	4
CHW@CLE	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	HR	0.120	0.131	+0.011	0.122	+0.002	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	HRR	1.556	1.489	-0.067	1.551	-0.005	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	R	0.279	0.411	+0.132	0.383	+0.104	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	RBI	0.486	0.377	-0.108	0.405	-0.081	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	SB	0.000	–	–	0.000	+0.000	1
CHW@CLE	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	TB	1.342	1.235	-0.107	1.319	-0.023	4
CHW@CLE	CLE	Patrick Bailey	1B	0.493	0.479	-0.014	0.454	-0.039	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Patrick Bailey	2B	0.144	0.159	+0.015	0.147	+0.003	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Patrick Bailey	BB	0.324	0.328	+0.004	0.327	+0.004	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Patrick Bailey	H	0.756	0.667	-0.089	0.719	-0.038	4
CHW@CLE	CLE	Patrick Bailey	HR	0.108	0.102	-0.006	0.107	-0.001	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Patrick Bailey	HRR	1.527	0.985	-0.542	1.459	-0.068	4
CHW@CLE	CLE	Patrick Bailey	R	0.364	0.394	+0.031	0.389	+0.025	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Patrick Bailey	RBI	0.407	0.332	-0.075	0.352	-0.055	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Patrick Bailey	SB	0.029	0.061	+0.032	0.029	+0.000	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Patrick Bailey	TB	1.247	1.069	-0.178	1.208	-0.038	4
CHW@CLE	CLE	Steven Kwan	1B	0.702	0.728	+0.026	0.709	+0.007	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Steven Kwan	2B	0.170	0.220	+0.050	0.178	+0.008	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Steven Kwan	BB	0.586	0.466	-0.120	0.487	-0.100	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Steven Kwan	H	0.934	0.936	+0.002	0.949	+0.015	4
CHW@CLE	CLE	Steven Kwan	HR	0.047	0.046	-0.001	0.047	-0.000	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Steven Kwan	HRR	1.778	1.652	-0.126	1.790	+0.012	5
CHW@CLE	CLE	Steven Kwan	R	0.569	0.543	-0.026	0.548	-0.021	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Steven Kwan	RBI	0.275	0.300	+0.025	0.293	+0.018	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Steven Kwan	SB	0.060	0.115	+0.055	0.060	+0.000	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Steven Kwan	TB	1.274	1.403	+0.129	1.297	+0.023	6
CHW@CLE	CLE	Travis Bazzana	1B	0.489	0.505	+0.017	0.478	-0.011	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Travis Bazzana	2B	0.167	0.190	+0.023	0.171	+0.004	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Travis Bazzana	BB	0.432	0.378	-0.054	0.388	-0.045	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Travis Bazzana	H	0.769	0.724	-0.045	0.761	-0.008	5
CHW@CLE	CLE	Travis Bazzana	HR	0.101	0.092	-0.009	0.100	-0.002	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Travis Bazzana	HRR	1.640	0.995	-0.645	1.584	-0.056	4
CHW@CLE	CLE	Travis Bazzana	R	0.478	0.442	-0.037	0.448	-0.030	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Travis Bazzana	RBI	0.392	0.368	-0.024	0.375	-0.018	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Travis Bazzana	SB	0.152	0.137	-0.015	0.152	+0.000	4
CHW@CLE	CLE	Travis Bazzana	TB	1.264	1.220	-0.044	1.254	-0.010	4
CHW@CLE	CLE	Gavin Williams	BB	2.239	2.075	-0.164	2.143	-0.097	2
CHW@CLE	CLE	Gavin Williams	ER	1.933	1.319	-0.615	1.585	-0.348	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Gavin Williams	H	3.730	3.259	-0.471	3.462	-0.268	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Gavin Williams	OUTS	14.544	14.827	+0.283	14.453	-0.091	3
CHW@CLE	CLE	Gavin Williams	SO	7.658	6.903	-0.755	7.208	-0.450	6