Odds intelligence 2026-10-08
What the sportsbook player-prop market says about this slate, how it moved our published player lines, and how much the market has been worth on settled games.
Prices from output/odds/20261008/snapshots/odds_20261008T203041Z_594563db41bb.csv, written 2026-10-08T20:00:20.891628+00:00.
Books: BetMGM, BetOnline, BetRivers, Bovada, DraftKings, Fanatics, FanDuel, MyBookie, Caesars.
Key takeaways
- The market expects less offense than our model: hits 0.85×, runs 0.91×, rbi 0.78× of our projection across the slate.
- CHW: our hitters add up to 4.6 runs; the market's prices add up to 3.8; we publish 4.0.
- The published player lines already include the market at the fitted weights below; score, winner and win probability are not changed by it.
- Largest disagreement: Hagen Smith, pitcher hits allowed over 1.5: market 42%, our model 85%.
- Best price against the other books: Angel Martinez stolen bases over 0.5 at +1000 (FanDuel), fair 10.1%.
- Settled evidence so far: 1852 props over 4 date(s). A market needs 300 props over 10 dates for a verdict.
Market against our projection, by stat
| Stat | Players | Market ÷ our model | Our chance minus market's |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earned runs | 2 | 0.73× | 17.0% |
| Hits + runs + RBI | 15 | 0.76× | 12.3% |
| RBI | 15 | 0.78× | 5.2% |
| Strikeouts | 2 | 0.81× | 16.4% |
| Hits | 17 | 0.85× | 4.8% |
| Outs | 2 | 0.90× | 7.9% |
| Runs | 15 | 0.91× | 2.6% |
| Total bases | 15 | 0.98× | 1.0% |
| Walks | 17 | 1.01× | -0.9% |
| Home runs | 15 | 1.02× | 0.7% |
| Doubles | 15 | 1.04× | -0.7% |
| Singles | 15 | 1.07× | -1.8% |
| Triples | 1 | 2.95× | -2.7% |
Below 1.00× the market expects less than our model before odds. A shared gap across a whole slate is a calibration question before it is a player one.
Every priced player
| # | Player | Hits | Home runs | Runs | RBI | Total bases | Walks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase MeidrothCHW | 65%0.93model 0.94we publish 0.97 | 7%0.08model 0.11we publish 0.10 | 40%0.51model 0.60we publish 0.53 | 23%0.29model 0.42we publish 0.32 | –1.45model 1.49 | 35%0.41model 0.39we publish 0.40 |
| 2 | Randal GrichukCHW | 56%0.74model 0.96we publish 0.84 | 13%0.13model 0.17we publish 0.16 | 36%0.45model 0.39we publish 0.43 | 25%0.32model 0.54we publish 0.37 | –1.45model 1.76we publish 1.60 | 23%0.26model 0.23 |
| 3 | Miguel VargasCHW | 58%0.80model 0.80we publish 0.82 | 16%0.21model 0.19 | 40%0.52model 0.67we publish 0.54 | 31%0.43model 0.49we publish 0.45 | 58%1.60model 1.54we publish 1.57 | 45%0.56model 0.57we publish 0.56 |
| 4 | Munetaka MurakamiCHW | 52%0.68model 0.78we publish 0.74 | 19%0.24model 0.22 | 39%0.50model 0.63we publish 0.52 | 32%0.45model 0.59we publish 0.49 | 51%1.36model 1.60we publish 1.56 | 45%0.55model 0.53we publish 0.55 |
| 5 | Tommy PhamCHW | 48%0.60model 0.68we publish 0.64 | 9%0.09model 0.11 | 30%0.36model 0.33we publish 0.36 | 25%0.33model 0.37we publish 0.34 | 49%1.04model 1.16we publish 1.12 | 32%0.37model 0.33we publish 0.36 |
| 6 | Brenton DoyleCHW | 51%0.65model 0.79we publish 0.69 | 11%0.11model 0.11 | 29%0.34model 0.45we publish 0.36 | 24%0.31model 0.34we publish 0.32 | 51%1.09model 1.30we publish 1.21 | 22%0.24model 0.25we publish 0.24 |
| 7 | Kyle TeelCHW | 49%0.63model 0.77we publish 0.69 | 10%0.10model 0.12 | 30%0.36model 0.55we publish 0.39 | 22%0.28model 0.56we publish 0.35 | 50%1.06model 1.28we publish 1.20 | 35%0.40model 0.33we publish 0.39 |
| 8 | Braden MontgomeryCHW | 52%0.67model 0.74we publish 0.71 | 7%0.07model 0.10we publish 0.09 | 31%0.37model 0.53we publish 0.39 | 24%0.31model 0.40we publish 0.33 | 53%1.12model 1.21we publish 1.17 | 27%0.31model 0.36we publish 0.32 |
| 9 | Colson MontgomeryCHW | 47%0.59model 0.68we publish 0.63 | –0.22model 0.15 | 33%0.40model 0.42we publish 0.40 | 27%0.35model 0.51we publish 0.39 | 46%1.07model 1.28we publish 1.23 | 31%0.36model 0.26we publish 0.34 |
| Hagen SmithCHW | –1.45model 3.36we publish 2.21 | – | – | – | – | 56%0.81model 1.49we publish 1.06 | |
| 1 | Steven KwanCLE | 66%0.96model 0.86we publish 0.95 | 5%0.05model 0.05 | 42%0.55model 0.55we publish 0.55 | 25%0.33model 0.32we publish 0.32 | –1.41model 1.21we publish 1.31 | 44%0.55model 0.64we publish 0.56 |
| 3 | Chase DeLauterCLE | 65%0.93model 0.86we publish 0.94 | 12%0.13model 0.12 | 40%0.52model 0.51we publish 0.51 | 34%0.50model 0.54we publish 0.51 | –1.58model 1.44we publish 1.53 | 45%0.56model 0.50we publish 0.55 |
| 4 | Jo AdellCLE | 59%0.80model 0.78we publish 0.82 | 14%0.17model 0.15 | 38%0.48model 0.44we publish 0.47 | 34%0.51model 0.58we publish 0.53 | 58%1.53model 1.43we publish 1.48 | 37%0.44model 0.34we publish 0.42 |
| 5 | Nathaniel LoweCLE | 58%0.78model 0.72we publish 0.78 | 11%0.12model 0.13 | 36%0.45model 0.28we publish 0.41 | 31%0.45model 0.55we publish 0.48 | 60%1.49model 1.29we publish 1.35 | 35%0.41model 0.41 |
| 7 | Travis BazzanaCLE | 53%0.69model 0.69we publish 0.74 | 8%0.09model 0.11we publish 0.10 | 36%0.44model 0.48we publish 0.45 | 25%0.32model 0.44we publish 0.35 | 53%1.20model 1.20we publish 1.23 | 36%0.42model 0.47we publish 0.43 |
| 9 | Brayan RocchioCLE | 56%0.73model 0.67we publish 0.74 | 9%0.09model 0.09 | 33%0.41model 0.47we publish 0.42 | 26%0.34model 0.41we publish 0.36 | 56%1.25model 1.13we publish 1.21 | 31%0.35model 0.33we publish 0.35 |
| Parker MessickCLE | –4.04model 4.59we publish 4.31 | – | – | – | – | –1.84model 1.28we publish 1.57 |
Each cell: the market's chance of at least one (top), the expectation the market's price implies (bold; red below our model, green above), our model before odds, and the published value after the blend.
Largest disagreements
| Player | Prop | Market chance | Our model | Difference | Expectation: ours → market | Betting decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hagen Smith | Pitcher hits allowed over 1.5 | 42% | 85% | 42% | 3.36 → 1.45 | pass |
| Hagen Smith | Pitcher outs over 5.5 | 56% | 98% | 41% | 11.84 → 6.07 | pass |
| Hagen Smith | Pitcher earned runs over 0.5 | 37% | 77% | 40% | 1.47 → 0.47 | pass |
| Hagen Smith | Pitcher strikeouts over 2.5 | 41% | 69% | 28% | 3.56 → 2.31 | pass |
| Kyle Teel | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 55% | 82% | 27% | 1.89 → 0.90 | pass |
| Hagen Smith | Pitcher strikeouts over 1.5 | 60% | 87% | 27% | 3.56 → 2.03 | pass |
| Brenton Doyle | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 53% | 77% | 24% | 1.59 → 0.85 | pass |
| Colson Montgomery | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 53% | 75% | 22% | 1.61 → 0.90 | pass |
| Hagen Smith | Pitcher walks allowed over 0.5 | 56% | 78% | 22% | 1.49 → 0.81 | pass |
| Randal Grichuk | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 60% | 82% | 22% | 1.89 → 1.06 | pass |
| Braden Montgomery | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 58% | 79% | 21% | 1.67 → 0.94 | pass |
| Tommy Pham | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 53% | 71% | 18% | 1.38 → 0.86 | pass |
| Parker Messick | Pitcher walks allowed over 1.5 | 55% | 37% | -18% | 1.28 → 1.84 | pass |
| Travis Bazzana | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 60% | 77% | 17% | 1.61 → 1.04 | pass |
| Brayan Rocchio | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 61% | 76% | 15% | 1.55 → 1.03 | pass |
Disagreements are research signals. Every one is a pass until settled games show our model beats the market on that market.
Best prices between books
| Player | Prop | Best price | Book | Fair (other books) | Value vs fair | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel Martinez | Stolen bases over 0.5 | +1000 | FanDuel | 10.1% | 10.7% | 2 |
| Parker Messick | Pitcher outs under 14.5 | +158 | DraftKings | 41.7% | 7.6% | 6 |
| Brenton Doyle | Hits over 0.5 | +108 | BetRivers | 50.8% | 5.7% | 3 |
| Tommy Pham | Hits + runs + RBI under 0.5 | +120 | BetMGM | 48.0% | 5.5% | 4 |
| Jose Ramirez | Stolen bases over 0.5 | +350 | FanDuel | 22.9% | 3.0% | 2 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | Hits under 0.5 | +140 | BetMGM | 42.9% | 2.8% | 3 |
One book's price against the consensus of the others. Hypothetical value between books, not a model view and not a wager.
What the market has been worth
| Market | Props | Players | Games | Dates | Market log loss | Model log loss | Model − market | 95% interval (by game) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doubles | 159 | 95 | 10 | 4 | 0.325 | 0.316 | -0.010 | -0.022 to +0.002 no clear leader | needs 6 more dates and 141 more props |
| Hits | 166 | 95 | 10 | 4 | 0.660 | 0.662 | 0.002 | -0.038 to +0.039 no clear leader | needs 6 more dates and 134 more props |
| Hits + runs + RBI | 179 | 96 | 10 | 4 | 0.696 | 0.763 | 0.067 | -0.013 to +0.141 no clear leader | needs 6 more dates and 121 more props |
| Home runs | 191 | 95 | 10 | 4 | 0.315 | 0.305 | -0.011 | -0.025 to +0.002 no clear leader | needs 6 more dates and 109 more props |
| RBI | 159 | 95 | 10 | 4 | 0.599 | 0.609 | 0.010 | -0.013 to +0.031 no clear leader | needs 6 more dates and 141 more props |
| Runs | 159 | 95 | 10 | 4 | 0.639 | 0.656 | 0.017 | -0.015 to +0.041 no clear leader | needs 6 more dates and 141 more props |
| Singles | 159 | 95 | 10 | 4 | 0.677 | 0.687 | 0.010 | -0.020 to +0.040 no clear leader | needs 6 more dates and 141 more props |
| Stolen bases | 143 | 87 | 10 | 4 | 0.272 | 0.261 | -0.011 | -0.029 to +0.011 no clear leader | needs 6 more dates and 157 more props |
| Total bases | 174 | 94 | 10 | 4 | 0.665 | 0.660 | -0.005 | -0.042 to +0.028 no clear leader | needs 6 more dates and 126 more props |
| Triples | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0.043 | 0.013 | -0.029 | -0.033 to -0.025 model ahead | needs 6 more dates and 293 more props |
| Walks | 153 | 93 | 10 | 4 | 0.582 | 0.598 | 0.016 | +0.001 to +0.032 market ahead | needs 6 more dates and 147 more props |
| Pitcher earned runs | 19 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 0.686 | 0.666 | -0.019 | -0.123 to +0.069 no clear leader | needs 7 more dates and 281 more props |
| Pitcher hits allowed | 24 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 0.670 | 0.605 | -0.064 | -0.160 to +0.030 no clear leader | needs 7 more dates and 276 more props |
| Pitcher outs | 34 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 0.659 | 0.768 | 0.109 | -0.025 to +0.261 no clear leader | needs 7 more dates and 266 more props |
| Pitcher strikeouts | 26 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 0.631 | 0.613 | -0.018 | -0.080 to +0.059 no clear leader | needs 7 more dates and 274 more props |
| Pitcher walks allowed | 17 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 0.608 | 0.681 | 0.073 | -0.124 to +0.293 no clear leader | needs 7 more dates and 283 more props |
Log loss scores each probability against what happened; lower is better, and a negative model − market means our model was more accurate. Props count only when both the market and our model priced them. The interval resamples whole games, because props in one game are not independent: one at-bat settles a hitter's hits, singles and total bases, and nine hitters face the same pitcher. With 4 games it is wide, which is why a verdict needs 300 props over 10 dates, not just 300 props.
Weights in force
How far each published stat moves toward the market: 0% keeps the model, 100% takes the market. Fitted on the settled props above.
Data quality and gaps
Full-game moneyline context in the team router decision profile, review_prediction_results and the deep slate diagnosis reads this file and reports unavailable for every game since. The event feed carries only inning-period markets (first 1/3/5/7), so it cannot refill it. Ask the odds source to add full-game h2h, totals and spreads.
Stolen bases have a market and no model expectation. A SB rate from sprint speed, attempt rate and catcher pop time is a self-contained new hitter metric with a market to measure it against.
Pull the feed at open, mid-day and near first pitch. Line movement and closing-line value against our early number are the strongest independent checks a single price cannot give.
One-sided rows are scaled by the market's median hold; a two-way price would remove the estimate.
Books post props for bench players before lineups are out. With confirmed lineups this is information; with projected lineups, rerun once they confirm.
Known (R-27). Anchoring hitter R and RBI to the club target was measured on 1,128 settled hitter-games and lost accuracy, so the lines are left unanchored; the market blend moves R and RBI toward the market instead.
Player audit
| Player | Check | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | market floor H | explained | market 65.8% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 34% to exactly that |
| Steven Kwan | market floor 1B | explained | market 56.3% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 44% to exactly that |
| Travis Bazzana | market floor H | explained | market 53.3% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 47% to exactly that |
| Travis Bazzana | market floor TB | explained | market 53.3% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 47% to exactly that |
| Brayan Rocchio | market floor H | explained | market 55.6% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 44% to exactly that |
| Brayan Rocchio | market floor HRR | explained | market 60.9% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 39% to exactly that |
| Brayan Rocchio | market floor TB | explained | market 56.4% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 44% to exactly that |
| Brenton Doyle | market floor H | explained | market 50.8% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 49% to exactly that |
| Brenton Doyle | market floor HRR | explained | market 53.0% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 47% to exactly that |
| Brenton Doyle | market floor TB | explained | market 51.4% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 49% to exactly that |
| Colson Montgomery | market floor HRR | explained | market 53.2% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 47% to exactly that |
Every batter and starter is checked: box identities, rate line, the odds step's arithmetic and position, market floors and the play by play. Explained means the market and the single realized game differ for a reason the check names.
Reference
Book margins by market and by book
| Doubles | 6.1% |
| Pitcher strikeouts | 6.5% |
| RBI | 6.8% |
| Hits | 6.9% |
| Hits + runs + RBI | 6.9% |
| Stolen bases | 7.0% |
| Total bases | 7.0% |
| Pitcher hits allowed | 7.0% |
| Pitcher outs | 7.1% |
| Pitcher earned runs | 7.2% |
| Pitcher walks allowed | 7.3% |
| Runs | 7.3% |
| Singles | 7.6% |
| Walks | 7.7% |
| BetOnline | 6.5% |
| Bovada | 6.8% |
| BetMGM | 7.0% |
| DraftKings | 7.0% |
| FanDuel | 7.0% |
| Caesars | 7.1% |
| MyBookie | 8.0% |
| Fanatics | 8.3% |
The margin is what a book adds on top of a fair price; lower is a sharper book.