Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.
Windows shown explicitly: newly generated team recent form targets the latest 10 games; each game below shows the window actually stored in its artifact. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games.
Savant layers shown explicitly: hitter Statcast quality, pitcher Statcast quality, and pitch movement from embedded data/all_players_stats.csv features.
Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | CLE 5 - 4 CHW | CLE | 0.535 | enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target | True |
| Simulation draw | CLE 5 - 4 CHW | CLE | - | organic_simulation_realized_target | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.5345; empirical=0.5819; weight=0.4500; final=0.5558 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=5; abs=5; home delta=0.0288; away delta=-0.0288 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=2.2500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=0.2685; recent edge=-0.0400; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 6.9000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5351 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_simulation_realized_target |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 8 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 4.630 | 2.802 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 5 | 3 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 5 | 4 | 0.5351 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| 4 | kpi_layer | 5 | 4 | - | Savant KPI blend applied to the model target |
| 5 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 4 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 6 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 4 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 7 | capped_target | 5 | 4 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 8 | simulation_result | 5 | 4 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.539574795477032,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.4275618374558304,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5075618374558304,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.11201295802120165,
"confidence": 0.7309903600000003,
"factors": {
"environmental": 1.0710000000000002,
"pitcher_form": 1.1,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.0712000000000002,
"combined": 1.2619807200000006
},
"prediction": "low_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 9,
"score_scale_mode": "control",
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 6.9,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 6.9,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 9,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
}{
"method": "monotone_reliability_shrinkage",
"policy": "shrink_toward_even_score_floor_v3",
"sample_size": 464,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 464,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 1089,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 1116,
"global_sample_size": 1135,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5819,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5788,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5846,
"raw_pick_probability_unclamped": 0.5846,
"score_probability_conflict": false,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.4927,
"margin_implied_pick_probability": 0.5073,
"score_blend_weight": 0.45,
"blended_raw_pick_probability": 0.5498,
"score_implied_floor_pick_probability": 0.5071,
"max_published_pick_probability": 0.9,
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.415355,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.584645,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5486,
"predicted_side": "away",
"reliability": 0.962656,
"shrink_floor": 0.35,
"empirical_penalty": 1.0,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.975726
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.534519,
"sample_size": 464,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5819,
"empirical_weight": 0.45,
"empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
"empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
"blended_confidence": 0.555841,
"published_confidence": 0.535129,
"published_after_governors": true,
"governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": 5.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
"home_average_margin": 1.0,
"home_run_delta": 0.0288,
"away_run_delta": -0.0288,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -3.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 4.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 2.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 3.0
}
],
"adaptive_parameters": {
"h2h.history_limit": 5,
"h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
"h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
"h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
}
}{
"applied": false,
"home": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185185185185185,
"runs_scored": 776,
"runs_allowed": 720,
"run_differential": 56,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.345679012345679,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "CLE",
"games": 162,
"wins": 85,
"losses": 77,
"win_pct": 0.5246913580246914,
"runs_scored": 678,
"runs_allowed": 667,
"run_differential": 11,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.06790123456790123,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.2778,
"win_pct_edge": -0.0062,
"quality_edge": 0.1605,
"season_quality_edge": 0.2685,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": 0.2685,
"recent_quality_edge": -0.04,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "conflict",
"blended_quality_edge": 0.1605
},
"margin_adjustment": 0.0,
"reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.017682571406886477
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.01766788067777547
},
{
"home_runs": 5,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.01748964662303455
},
{
"home_runs": 5,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.017475116176366247
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.01615689013542389
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.05092677718783937,
"1": 0.07550747472048212,
"2": 0.10117696873421211,
"3": 0.12252405090665044,
"4": 0.1340938918974087,
"5": 0.1326308674019953,
"6": 0.11855726976450373,
"7": 0.09577667025838944,
"8": 0.0699260899971712,
"9": 0.04613884521810992,
"10": 0.02751326694257132,
"11": 0.014827419282536827,
"12": 0.007221658384356077,
"13": 0.003178749303773532
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.04918643147186386,
"1": 0.0730093256033763,
"2": 0.09816074872009906,
"3": 0.11954292874158819,
"4": 0.13186709071293787,
"5": 0.13175753517015262,
"6": 0.11924522642548871,
"7": 0.09775366459122385,
"8": 0.07258578795794711,
"9": 0.048819873302705485,
"10": 0.02974186542042328,
"11": 0.01641217972377906,
"12": 0.008203342191200962,
"13": 0.003713999967213697
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 2.25,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
"applied": true,
"confidence_cap": 0.56,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [
"recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick",
"a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result"
],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "CLE",
"opponent_team": "CHW",
"h2h_net_margin": 0,
"opponent_breakout": false,
"opponent_blowout_win": false,
"split_recent_h2h": true,
"recent_h2h": [
{
"date": "2026-09-16",
"predicted_team_runs": 6,
"opponent_runs": 3,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 3,
"winner": "CLE"
},
{
"date": "2026-09-15",
"predicted_team_runs": 7,
"opponent_runs": 6,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 1,
"winner": "CLE"
},
{
"date": "2026-09-14",
"predicted_team_runs": 3,
"opponent_runs": 7,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -4,
"winner": "CHW"
}
],
"prediction_memory": {
"available": true,
"reason": "verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available",
"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
"verified_outcome_count": 13,
"consecutive_same_pick_count": 1,
"same_pick_actual_loss_count": 2,
"same_pick_blowout_loss_count": 0,
"prior_predictions": [
{
"date": "20261005",
"away": "CHW",
"home": "CLE",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "CLE",
"actual_winner": "CHW",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5185,
"artifact": "20261005_CHW@CLE.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20261003",
"away": "CHW",
"home": "CLE",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "CHW",
"actual_winner": "CHW",
"actual_margin": 3,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5229980000000001,
"artifact": "20261003_CHW@CLE.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260916",
"away": "CHW",
"home": "CLE",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "CLE",
"actual_winner": "CLE",
"actual_margin": 3,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.556513,
"artifact": "20260916_CHW@CLE.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260915",
"away": "CHW",
"home": "CLE",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "CHW",
"actual_winner": "CLE",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.544573,
"artifact": "20260915_CHW@CLE.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260914",
"away": "CHW",
"home": "CLE",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "CLE",
"actual_winner": "CHW",
"actual_margin": 4,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.505654,
"artifact": "20260914_CHW@CLE.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "CLE",
"guardrail_opponent_team": "CHW",
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "CLE",
"output_opponent_team": "CHW",
"simulation_score_winner": "CLE",
"final_score_winner": "CLE",
"pre_simulation_winner": "CLE",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false
},
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"flip_authority": "caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only"
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"policy": "recency_uncertainty_shrinkage_v2",
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185185185185185,
"runs_scored": 776,
"runs_allowed": 720,
"run_differential": 56,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.345679012345679,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "CLE",
"games": 162,
"wins": 85,
"losses": 77,
"win_pct": 0.5246913580246914,
"runs_scored": 678,
"runs_allowed": 667,
"run_differential": 11,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.06790123456790123,
"available": true
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_margin": -0.1,
"final_margin": -0.1,
"margin_cap": 1.5,
"season_quality_edge": 0.1605,
"reason": "raw target margin within supported range"
}{
"applied": true,
"policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
"raw_confidence": 0.555841,
"final_confidence": 0.5486,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5486,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.975726,
"hard_maximum": 0.9,
"confidence_floor": 0.505,
"score_gap": 0.1,
"calibration_sample_size": 464,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5819,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5788,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 0.1605,
"reasons": [
"confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
],
"score_coherence": {
"policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"published_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4
},
"margin": -1,
"probability_before": 0.451379,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.427612,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.975726,
"side_flipped": false,
"applied": false,
"magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
"probability_after": 0.451379,
"aligned_pick_probability": 0.548621
},
"starter_experience": {
"applied": false,
"min_starter_games": 15,
"shrink_factor": 1.0
}
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
"winner": "CLE"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
"winner": "CLE"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.008,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.03,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "CLE",
"model_winner": "CLE",
"simulation_winner": "CLE",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 3,
"published_winner": "CLE",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
"draw_majority_team": "CLE",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": -0.1605,
"winner": "CLE",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"confidence": 0.5351286725,
"home_win_probability": 0.46487132750000004,
"away_win_probability": 0.5351286725,
"predicted_score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.451379,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.548621,
"confidence_shrinkage": {
"policy": "starter_quality_shrinkage_v3",
"staged_confidence": 0.548621,
"discount_factor": 0.7225,
"published_confidence": 0.535129,
"guardrail_confidence_cap": 0.56,
"guardrail_cap_enforced": false,
"guardrail_soft_ceiling_applied": false,
"confidence_before_ceiling": 0.535129,
"applied_discounts": [
{
"reason": "projected_margin_is_one_run",
"factor": 0.85
},
{
"reason": "matchup_recency_guardrail",
"factor": 0.85
}
]
},
"score_probability_reconciliation": {
"policy": "published_probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"incoming_home_win_probability": 0.449263,
"incoming_favoured_side": "away",
"score_winner_side": "away",
"published_home_win_probability": 0.464871,
"probability_side_reverted_by_score": false,
"note": "The probability and the projected score agree on the winner."
},
"confidence_note": "Probability shrunk toward even by starter-quality and guardrail discounts; no per-game clamp is applied. Discounts: projected_margin_is_one_run x0.85, matchup_recency_guardrail x0.85.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"predicted_score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
"confidence": 0.5351286725,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
"winner": "CLE"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
"winner": "CLE"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.008,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.03,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "CLE",
"model_winner": "CLE",
"simulation_winner": "CLE",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 3,
"published_winner": "CLE",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
"draw_majority_team": "CLE",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": -0.1605,
"winner": "CLE",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CLE | True | 1.0220 | 1.0220 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home CHW | True | 1.0365 | 1.0365 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | Steven Kwan | - | 1.0007 | 0.0095 | neutral | 0.3280 | 0.2770 | 0.3430 | 0.40 | 10.50 | 83.90 | 12.80 | 8.20 | 9.70 | 13.30 | -0.1714 |
| 3B | José Ramírez | - | 1.0359 | 0.4788 | neutral | 0.3250 | 0.2660 | 0.3910 | 4.10 | 38.80 | 88.60 | 19 | 15.30 | 12.70 | 11 | 0.6857 |
| RF | Chase DeLauter | - | 1.0602 | 0.8032 | neutral | 0.3460 | 0.2770 | 0.4270 | 6.30 | 46.30 | 91.40 | 11.80 | 15 | 14.70 | 10.70 | -0.3714 |
| DH | Jo Adell | - | 1.0538 | 0.7179 | neutral | 0.3290 | 0.2570 | 0.4440 | 8.90 | 44.90 | 90.40 | 16.20 | 28.20 | 23.80 | 5.20 | 0.6286 |
| 1B | Nathaniel Lowe | - | 1.0555 | 0.7399 | neutral | 0.3350 | 0.2680 | 0.4370 | 8.40 | 41.40 | 89.60 | 14.60 | 22 | 23.10 | 8.90 | 0.1714 |
| LF | Angel Martínez | - | 0.9984 | -0.0218 | neutral | 0.2990 | 0.2510 | 0.4010 | 7.20 | 35.50 | 87.50 | 14.80 | 20.70 | 21.90 | 3.10 | -0.7714 |
| 2B | Travis Bazzana | - | 0.9817 | -0.2433 | neutral | 0.2990 | 0.2240 | 0.3470 | 5.20 | 36.20 | 87.60 | 15.70 | 23.20 | 20.70 | 10.80 | -0.8286 |
| C | Patrick Bailey | - | 1.0330 | 0.4406 | positive_batter_regression | 0.3070 | 0.2400 | 0.3980 | 7.70 | 42.40 | 90.50 | 13.40 | 26.80 | 26.70 | 8.10 | 1.0286 |
| SS | Brayan Rocchio | - | 0.9791 | -0.2783 | neutral | 0.2940 | 0.2460 | 0.3500 | 2.90 | 30 | 87 | 13.80 | 22.10 | 14.40 | 6.40 | -0.4857 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | Sam Antonacci | - | 1.0446 | 0.5947 | neutral | 0.3480 | 0.2840 | 0.3990 | 5 | 33.60 | 87.50 | 9.90 | 14.70 | 14.70 | 7.70 | 0.0857 |
| 3B | Miguel Vargas | - | 1.1095 | 1.4598 | neutral | 0.3780 | 0.2630 | 0.4960 | 13 | 43.80 | 90.10 | 20.50 | 21 | 17.90 | 14.30 | 0.4286 |
| 1B | Munetaka Murakami | - | 1.0835 | 1.1131 | neutral | 0.3510 | 0.2040 | 0.4690 | 20.50 | 56.80 | 93.90 | 16.10 | 42.30 | 35.40 | 16.60 | -0.1429 |
| C | Kyle Teel | - | 1.0131 | 0.1752 | neutral | 0.3210 | 0.2110 | 0.3750 | 11.40 | 47.10 | 85.70 | 13.60 | 35.60 | 35.40 | 13.20 | 0.1143 |
| 2B | Chase Meidroth | - | 0.9823 | -0.2365 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3010 | 0.2390 | 0.3480 | 4.60 | 34.60 | 87.20 | 8.50 | 19.70 | 21.90 | 9.50 | -1.0857 |
| CF | Tristan Peters | - | 1.0019 | 0.0255 | neutral | 0.3140 | 0.2480 | 0.3840 | 5.40 | 34.10 | 87.50 | 18 | 23 | 18.30 | 7.50 | -0.7429 |
| RF | Braden Montgomery | - | 1.0305 | 0.4073 | neutral | 0.3250 | 0.2550 | 0.3920 | 4.40 | 40.90 | 88.90 | 3 | 30.10 | 19.70 | 10.40 | 0.7714 |
| LF | Randal Grichuk | - | 1.0625 | 0.8328 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3350 | 0.2780 | 0.4780 | 11.20 | 49.80 | 91.30 | 17.10 | 24 | 21.80 | 3.90 | -1 |
| SS | Colson Montgomery | - | 1.0009 | 0.0126 | neutral | 0.2940 | 0.1990 | 0.3880 | 12 | 40.90 | 88.60 | 23.60 | 37.40 | 35.60 | 8.50 | -0.1714 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0365,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0365,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "803011",
"player_name": "Sam Antonacci",
"offense_factor": 1.0446,
"quality_score": 0.5947,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "803011",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 511.0,
"k_percent": 14.7,
"bb_percent": 7.7,
"woba": 0.345,
"xwoba": 0.348,
"xba": 0.284,
"xslg": 0.399,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 9.9,
"whiff_percent": 14.7,
"swing_percent": 42.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.6776,
"regression_edge": 0.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4,
"xba_edge": 1.3714,
"xslg_edge": 0.5143,
"barrel_edge": -0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5714,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.36,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.7833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "678246",
"player_name": "Miguel Vargas",
"offense_factor": 1.1095,
"quality_score": 1.4598,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "678246",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 651.0,
"k_percent": 17.9,
"bb_percent": 14.3,
"woba": 0.363,
"xwoba": 0.378,
"xba": 0.263,
"xslg": 0.496,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 13.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 20.5,
"whiff_percent": 21.0,
"swing_percent": 43.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.6277,
"regression_edge": 0.4286,
"xwoba_edge": 2.2571,
"xba_edge": 0.7714,
"xslg_edge": 1.9,
"barrel_edge": 1.4222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8857,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.68,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.0167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "808959",
"player_name": "Munetaka Murakami",
"offense_factor": 1.0835,
"quality_score": 1.1131,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "808959",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 491.0,
"k_percent": 35.4,
"bb_percent": 16.6,
"woba": 0.356,
"xwoba": 0.351,
"xba": 0.204,
"xslg": 0.469,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 20.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 56.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 93.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.1,
"whiff_percent": 42.3,
"swing_percent": 40.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.3175,
"regression_edge": -0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4857,
"xba_edge": -0.9143,
"xslg_edge": 1.5143,
"barrel_edge": 2.5,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": 2.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.4667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "691019",
"player_name": "Kyle Teel",
"offense_factor": 1.0131,
"quality_score": 0.1752,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "691019",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 106.0,
"k_percent": 35.4,
"bb_percent": 13.2,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.321,
"xba": 0.211,
"xslg": 0.375,
"sweet_spot_percent": 41.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 11.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 47.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.7,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.6,
"whiff_percent": 35.6,
"swing_percent": 45.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.4042,
"regression_edge": 0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.6286,
"xba_edge": -0.7143,
"xslg_edge": 0.1714,
"barrel_edge": 1.0667,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.3571,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.35,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "805367",
"player_name": "Chase Meidroth",
"offense_factor": 0.9823,
"quality_score": -0.2365,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "805367",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 597.0,
"k_percent": 21.9,
"bb_percent": 9.5,
"woba": 0.339,
"xwoba": 0.301,
"xba": 0.239,
"xslg": 0.348,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 8.5,
"whiff_percent": 19.7,
"swing_percent": 42.0
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.0983,
"regression_edge": -1.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
"xba_edge": 0.0857,
"xslg_edge": -0.2143,
"barrel_edge": -0.4444,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.1333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "671976",
"player_name": "Tristan Peters",
"offense_factor": 1.0019,
"quality_score": 0.0255,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "671976",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 452.0,
"k_percent": 18.3,
"bb_percent": 7.5,
"woba": 0.34,
"xwoba": 0.314,
"xba": 0.248,
"xslg": 0.384,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 18.0,
"whiff_percent": 23.0,
"swing_percent": 53.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.1505,
"regression_edge": -0.7429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
"xba_edge": 0.3429,
"xslg_edge": 0.3,
"barrel_edge": -0.2667,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.36,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.0333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "695731",
"player_name": "Braden Montgomery",
"offense_factor": 1.0305,
"quality_score": 0.4073,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "695731",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 332.0,
"k_percent": 19.7,
"bb_percent": 10.4,
"woba": 0.298,
"xwoba": 0.325,
"xba": 0.255,
"xslg": 0.392,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 3.0,
"whiff_percent": 30.1,
"swing_percent": 50.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.348,
"regression_edge": 0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": 0.7429,
"xba_edge": 0.5429,
"xslg_edge": 0.4143,
"barrel_edge": -0.4889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.85,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "545341",
"player_name": "Randal Grichuk",
"offense_factor": 1.0625,
"quality_score": 0.8328,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "545341",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 246.0,
"k_percent": 21.8,
"bb_percent": 3.9,
"woba": 0.37,
"xwoba": 0.335,
"xba": 0.278,
"xslg": 0.478,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 11.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 49.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.1,
"whiff_percent": 24.0,
"swing_percent": 53.0
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.1312,
"regression_edge": -1.0,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0286,
"xba_edge": 1.2,
"xslg_edge": 1.6429,
"barrel_edge": 1.0222,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.7429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.16,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.7333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "695657",
"player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
"offense_factor": 1.0009,
"quality_score": 0.0126,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "695657",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 588.0,
"k_percent": 35.6,
"bb_percent": 8.5,
"woba": 0.3,
"xwoba": 0.294,
"xba": 0.199,
"xslg": 0.388,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 23.6,
"whiff_percent": 37.4,
"swing_percent": 51.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0426,
"regression_edge": -0.1714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"xba_edge": -1.0571,
"xslg_edge": 0.3571,
"barrel_edge": 1.2,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.0667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.022,
"raw_average_factor": 1.022,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "680757",
"player_name": "Steven Kwan",
"offense_factor": 1.0007,
"quality_score": 0.0095,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "680757",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 580.0,
"k_percent": 9.7,
"bb_percent": 13.3,
"woba": 0.334,
"xwoba": 0.328,
"xba": 0.277,
"xslg": 0.343,
"sweet_spot_percent": 40.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 0.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 10.5,
"exit_velocity_avg": 83.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.8,
"whiff_percent": 8.2,
"swing_percent": 35.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.039,
"regression_edge": -0.1714,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8286,
"xba_edge": 1.1714,
"xslg_edge": -0.2857,
"barrel_edge": -1.3778,
"hard_hit_edge": -2.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.8,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.2167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "608070",
"player_name": "José Ramírez",
"offense_factor": 1.0359,
"quality_score": 0.4788,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "608070",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 486.0,
"k_percent": 12.7,
"bb_percent": 11.0,
"woba": 0.301,
"xwoba": 0.325,
"xba": 0.266,
"xslg": 0.391,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 19.0,
"whiff_percent": 15.3,
"swing_percent": 45.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.4451,
"regression_edge": 0.6857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.7429,
"xba_edge": 0.8571,
"xslg_edge": 0.4,
"barrel_edge": -0.5556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.3333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "800050",
"player_name": "Chase DeLauter",
"offense_factor": 1.0602,
"quality_score": 0.8032,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "800050",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 511.0,
"k_percent": 14.7,
"bb_percent": 10.7,
"woba": 0.359,
"xwoba": 0.346,
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"xslg": 0.427,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 46.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.8,
"whiff_percent": 15.0,
"swing_percent": 42.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.9944,
"regression_edge": -0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.3429,
"xba_edge": 1.1714,
"xslg_edge": 0.9143,
"barrel_edge": -0.0667,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.2429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.3,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "666176",
"player_name": "Jo Adell",
"offense_factor": 1.0538,
"quality_score": 0.7179,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "666176",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 605.0,
"k_percent": 23.8,
"bb_percent": 5.2,
"woba": 0.307,
"xwoba": 0.329,
"xba": 0.257,
"xslg": 0.444,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 44.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.2,
"whiff_percent": 28.2,
"swing_percent": 53.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.7325,
"regression_edge": 0.6286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8571,
"xba_edge": 0.6,
"xslg_edge": 1.1571,
"barrel_edge": 0.5111,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.0429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.8,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.1833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "663993",
"player_name": "Nathaniel Lowe",
"offense_factor": 1.0555,
"quality_score": 0.7399,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "663993",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 391.0,
"k_percent": 23.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.329,
"xwoba": 0.335,
"xba": 0.268,
"xslg": 0.437,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.6,
"whiff_percent": 22.0,
"swing_percent": 46.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.8325,
"regression_edge": 0.1714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0286,
"xba_edge": 0.9143,
"xslg_edge": 1.0571,
"barrel_edge": 0.4,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.5429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.0,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "682657",
"player_name": "Angel Martínez",
"offense_factor": 0.9984,
"quality_score": -0.0218,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "682657",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 374.0,
"k_percent": 21.9,
"bb_percent": 3.1,
"woba": 0.326,
"xwoba": 0.299,
"xba": 0.251,
"xslg": 0.401,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.8,
"whiff_percent": 20.7,
"swing_percent": 54.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.1002,
"regression_edge": -0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0,
"xba_edge": 0.4286,
"xslg_edge": 0.5429,
"barrel_edge": 0.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.3,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.36,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.3,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "683953",
"player_name": "Travis Bazzana",
"offense_factor": 0.9817,
"quality_score": -0.2433,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "683953",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 473.0,
"k_percent": 20.7,
"bb_percent": 10.8,
"woba": 0.328,
"xwoba": 0.299,
"xba": 0.224,
"xslg": 0.347,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 15.7,
"whiff_percent": 23.2,
"swing_percent": 45.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.1481,
"regression_edge": -0.8286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0,
"xba_edge": -0.3429,
"xslg_edge": -0.2286,
"barrel_edge": -0.3111,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.2,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.32,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.55,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "672275",
"player_name": "Patrick Bailey",
"offense_factor": 1.033,
"quality_score": 0.4406,
"regression_flag": "positive_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "672275",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 306.0,
"k_percent": 26.7,
"bb_percent": 8.1,
"woba": 0.271,
"xwoba": 0.307,
"xba": 0.24,
"xslg": 0.398,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.4,
"whiff_percent": 26.8,
"swing_percent": 49.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3449,
"regression_edge": 1.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
"xba_edge": 0.1143,
"xslg_edge": 0.5,
"barrel_edge": 0.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6857,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.84,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.55,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "677587",
"player_name": "Brayan Rocchio",
"offense_factor": 0.9791,
"quality_score": -0.2783,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "677587",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 548.0,
"k_percent": 14.4,
"bb_percent": 6.4,
"woba": 0.311,
"xwoba": 0.294,
"xba": 0.246,
"xslg": 0.35,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 30.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.0,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.8,
"whiff_percent": 22.1,
"swing_percent": 50.0
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.2445,
"regression_edge": -0.4857,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"xba_edge": 0.2857,
"xslg_edge": -0.1857,
"barrel_edge": -0.8222,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.0857,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.56,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.2667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CLE | Daniel Espino | True | - | 0.3987 | 0.4500 | 0.9661 | 1.0720 | 1.0144 | 1.0168 | positive_pitcher_regression | 0.2640 | 0.2990 | 38.50 | 10.80 | 36.80 | 12.10 | 36.40 |
| Home CHW | Sean Newcomb | True | - | -0.0519 | 1 | 1.0044 | 0.9954 | 0.9980 | 0.9958 | negative_pitcher_regression | 0.3170 | 0.2850 | 22.60 | 9.10 | 23.90 | 6.50 | 38.60 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CLE | Daniel Espino | True | None | 19 | 94.96 | 2413 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2800 |
| Home CHW | Sean Newcomb | False | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 1.0071 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 0.9892 |
| home_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 1.0044 |
| away_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9847 |
| home_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6296 |
| away_pitcher_workload_share | 0.4815 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | -0.2246 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656794",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 339.0,
"k_percent": 22.6,
"bb_percent": 9.1,
"woba": 0.285,
"xwoba": 0.317,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
"avg_best_speed": 77.7324,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.0135,
"whiff_percent": 23.9,
"swing_percent": 45.9
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0834,
"command_and_miss": -0.0279,
"regression_edge": -0.9143,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"barrel_edge": 0.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
"whiff_edge": -0.1857,
"bb_edge": 0.025,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "656794",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.0519,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0044,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
"walk_factor": 0.998,
"homer_factor": 0.9958,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.032,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "656794",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "682982",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 52.0,
"k_percent": 38.5,
"bb_percent": 10.8,
"woba": 0.299,
"xwoba": 0.264,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
"avg_best_speed": 72.8972,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.1724,
"whiff_percent": 36.8,
"swing_percent": 48.7
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6419,
"command_and_miss": 1.5543,
"regression_edge": 1.0,
"xwoba_edge": 1.3714,
"barrel_edge": -1.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.2143,
"whiff_edge": 1.6571,
"bb_edge": -0.4,
"pitch_design_score": 0.28
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "682982",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 19,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.96482029799016,
"release_spin_rate": 2413.0714912015155,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.96482029799016,
"release_spin_rate": 2413.0714912015155,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 94.9648,
"release_spin_rate": 2413.0715,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.28,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.3987,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9661,
"strikeout_factor": 1.072,
"walk_factor": 1.0144,
"homer_factor": 1.0168,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.035,
"regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "682982",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 1.0071,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 0.9892,
"home_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 1.0044,
"away_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.9847,
"home_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6296,
"away_pitcher_workload_share": 0.4815,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": -0.2246
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 5.0,
"home_runs": 4.0
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 5.0353,
"home_runs": 3.9569,
"home_win_probability": 0.4043
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CLE | 8-2 | 0.800 | 5.30 | 3.20 | 21 | 1L | hot | strong |
| Home CHW | 7-3 | 0.700 | 6.50 | 4.30 | 22 | 1W | hot | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CLE | 85-77 | 0.525 | 11 | 0.068 | True |
| Home CHW | 84-78 | 0.519 | 56 | 0.346 | True |
| Signal | - | - | 0.278 | 0.161 | applied=False |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | CHW @ CLE | 3 - 6 | CLE | 3 | blowout |
| 2026-09-15 | CHW @ CLE | 6 - 7 | CLE | 1 | close |
| 2026-09-14 | CHW @ CLE | 7 - 3 | CHW | 4 | blowout |
| 2026-08-09 | CLE @ CHW | 3 - 5 | CHW | 2 | close |
| 2026-08-08 | CLE @ CHW | 3 - 6 | CHW | 3 | blowout |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target CLE | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target CHW | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized CLE | 36 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Player finalized CHW | 33 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| Player model fractional CLE | 33.09 | 7.48 | 3.99 | 1.02 | 4.16 | 3.29 | 6.80 |
| Player model fractional CHW | 30.82 | 7.30 | 4.82 | 1.14 | 4.33 | 3.81 | 9.67 |
| Simulation box CLE | 36 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Simulation box CHW | 33 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CLE | Starter | Daniel Espino | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5.17 | 1.40 | True |
| Away CLE | Middle Reliever | Tim Herrin | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.94 | 1.48 | True |
| Away CLE | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Erik Sabrowski | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.33 | 1.24 | True |
| Away CLE | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Shawn Armstrong | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4.57 | 1.17 | True |
| Home CHW | Starter | Sean Newcomb | 3.10 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4.18 | 1.24 | True |
| Home CHW | Long Reliever | Hagen Smith | 1.10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2.73 | 1.13 | True |
| Home CHW | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Jordan Hicks | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5.08 | 1.49 | True |
| Home CHW | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Bryan Hudson | 3.10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3.44 | 1.27 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | CHW | pitcher | Starter | Sean Newcomb | worse | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | predicted_SO | -4.0000 | deboost | worse |
| home | CHW | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Bryan Hudson | better | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_IP | 2.1000 | boost | better |
| away | CLE | pitcher | Starter | Daniel Espino | better | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | predicted_BB | -2.0000 | deboost | better |
| away | CLE | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Shawn Armstrong | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 2.0000 | boost | better |
| home | CHW | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Jordan Hicks | better | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | predicted_ER | -2.0000 | deboost | better |
| away | CLE | batter | 1B | Nathaniel Lowe | better | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 3 | predicted_2B | 1.8140 | boost | better |
| away | CLE | batter | 2B | Travis Bazzana | better | 9 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | predicted_RBI | 1.7100 | boost | better |
| home | CHW | batter | 1B | Munetaka Murakami | deboosted | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | predicted_SO | -1.5570 | deboost | better |
| away | CLE | batter | 3B | José Ramírez | better | 11 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 2 | predicted_RBI | 1.5400 | boost | better |
| away | CLE | batter | SS | Brayan Rocchio | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 9 | predicted_SO | 1.4370 | boost | worse |
| home | CHW | batter | CF | Tristan Peters | worse | 9 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 7 | predicted_SO | 1.3870 | boost | worse |
| home | CHW | batter | RF | Braden Montgomery | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_SO | 1.1870 | boost | worse |
| away | CLE | batter | CF | Steven Kwan | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 7 | predicted_H | -1.0200 | deboost | worse |
| away | CLE | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Tim Herrin | worse | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | predicted_ER | 1.0000 | boost | worse |
| away | CLE | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Erik Sabrowski | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SO | 1.0000 | boost | better |
| home | CHW | pitcher | Long Reliever | Hagen Smith | worse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_ER | 1.0000 | boost | worse |
| away | CLE | batter | C | Patrick Bailey | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | predicted_AB | 0.9900 | boost | better |
| away | CLE | batter | DH | Jo Adell | worse | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | predicted_SO | 0.9880 | boost | worse |
| home | CHW | batter | DH | Sam Antonacci | worse | 12 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 9 | predicted_H | -0.9510 | deboost | worse |
| away | CLE | batter | LF | Angel Martínez | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | predicted_H | -0.9200 | deboost | worse |
| home | CHW | batter | LF | Randal Grichuk | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_HR | 0.8620 | boost | better |
| home | CHW | batter | C | Kyle Teel | worse | 12 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 10 | predicted_H | -0.8500 | deboost | worse |
| home | CHW | batter | SS | Colson Montgomery | better | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 | predicted_HR | 0.8300 | boost | better |
| home | CHW | batter | 3B | Miguel Vargas | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_2B | 0.8090 | boost | better |
| home | CHW | batter | 2B | Chase Meidroth | worse | 11 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 11 | predicted_RBI | -0.7100 | deboost | worse |
| away | CLE | batter | RF | Chase DeLauter | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 7 | predicted_SO | -0.6230 | deboost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Daniel Espino |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.3987 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2800 |
| Avg Velo | 94.9648 |
| Avg Spin | 2413.0715 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 4 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 3 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 5 |
| Season ERA | 3.9375 |
| Season WHIP | 1.3125 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.3330 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.3330 |
| Last Start IP | 1 |
{
"team": {
"team": "CLE",
"games": 162,
"wins": 85,
"losses": 77,
"win_pct": 0.5247,
"runs_scored": 678.0,
"runs_allowed": 667.0,
"run_differential": 11.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0679,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1852,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1173,
"offense_index": 0.9324,
"defense_index": 1.0902,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
"run_differential": 21.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1343
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0672,
"defense_index": 1.0099,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1281
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0062,
"offense_edge": -0.0676,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0672,
"defense_strength": 0.0902,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0099,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0003,
"run_prevention": 1.0014,
"strikeout": 0.9948
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "682982",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "682982",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 52.0,
"k_percent": 38.5,
"bb_percent": 10.8,
"woba": 0.299,
"xwoba": 0.264,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.1,
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},
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}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
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"struggling_form": false
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"error_prone": false
},
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"latest_game_date": "2026-10-03T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "682982",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
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}{
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}
},
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}{
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}{
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"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
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}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Tim Herrin |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1186 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.9653 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2832 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.8480 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
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"team": {
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"wins": 85,
"losses": 77,
"win_pct": 0.5247,
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"defense_strength": 0.0902,
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"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
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"run_prevention": 1.0014,
"strikeout": 0.9948
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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"pitcher_id": "682120",
"profile": {
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"pitcher_id": "682120",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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"swing_percent": 47.4
},
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},
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}
},
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}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
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"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
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"OPS": 0,
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},
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},
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}{
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}{
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},
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},
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},
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},
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}
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},
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}
},
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}{
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},
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},
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},
"predicted_SO": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
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"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.48,
"final": 1.48,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Erik Sabrowski |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.5594 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0383 |
| Avg Velo | 90.5485 |
| Avg Spin | 2569.9294 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.8421 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0855 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.8440 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.0670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "CLE",
"games": 162,
"wins": 85,
"losses": 77,
"win_pct": 0.5247,
"runs_scored": 678.0,
"runs_allowed": 667.0,
"run_differential": 11.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0679,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1852,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1173,
"offense_index": 0.9324,
"defense_index": 1.0902,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
"run_differential": 21.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1343
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0672,
"defense_index": 1.0099,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1281
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0062,
"offense_edge": -0.0676,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0672,
"defense_strength": 0.0902,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0099,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0003,
"run_prevention": 1.0014,
"strikeout": 0.9948
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "681870",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "681870",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 180.0,
"k_percent": 37.4,
"bb_percent": 15.3,
"woba": 0.258,
"xwoba": 0.251,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
"avg_best_speed": 79.9885,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.7378,
"whiff_percent": 30.8,
"swing_percent": 46.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9012,
"command_and_miss": 0.9586,
"regression_edge": 0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 1.7429,
"barrel_edge": 0.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.5571,
"whiff_edge": 0.8,
"bb_edge": -1.525,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0383
},
"quality_score": 0.5594,
"sample_weight": 0.72,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9525,
"strikeout_factor": 1.086,
"walk_factor": 1.0878,
"homer_factor": 0.9373,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "681870",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9658,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9658,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0632,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9549,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.0619,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.1,
"ER": 4,
"H": 3,
"BB": 7,
"SO": 12,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 3.8571428571428568,
"WHIP": 1.0714285714285714,
"K9": 11.571428571428571,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "681870",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 19,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.54853071894294,
"release_spin_rate": 2569.9294048098436,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.54853071894294,
"release_spin_rate": 2569.9294048098436,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 90.5485,
"release_spin_rate": 2569.9294,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0383,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.2738,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.462,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6766,
"prior_weight": 0.3234
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "681870",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 60,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 8.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 22.0,
"Pitches": 82.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.8,
"SO": 1.6,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.4,
"Pitches": 16.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.0625,
"WHIP": 1.3125,
"ER_per_IP": 0.5625,
"H_per_IP": 0.5625,
"BB_per_IP": 0.75,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.1,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 4.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 7.0,
"SO": 12.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 38.0,
"Pitches": 143.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.3,
"BB": 0.7,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 14.3
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.8571,
"WHIP": 1.0714,
"ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
"H_per_IP": 0.32143,
"BB_per_IP": 0.75,
"SO_per_IP": 1.28571,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 60,
"totals": {
"IP": 50.2,
"ER": 16.0,
"R": 18.0,
"H": 26.0,
"BB": 29.0,
"SO": 78.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 207.0,
"Pitches": 832.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2667,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.4333,
"BB": 0.4833,
"SO": 1.3,
"HR": 0.05,
"BF": 3.45,
"Pitches": 13.8667
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.8421,
"WHIP": 1.0855,
"ER_per_IP": 0.31579,
"H_per_IP": 0.51316,
"BB_per_IP": 0.57237,
"SO_per_IP": 1.53947,
"HR_per_IP": 0.05921
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.482,
"predicted_H": 0.636,
"predicted_BB": 0.606,
"predicted_SO": 1.272,
"predicted_HR": 0.056,
"predicted_ERA": 4.335,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2419
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4866,
"form_weight": 0.5134,
"form_reliability": 0.6766,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.462,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6766,
"prior_weight": 0.3234
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.482,
"final": 0.2474,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.636,
"final": 0.8131,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.606,
"final": 0.3111,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.272,
"final": 0.653,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.056,
"final": 0.0287,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.335,
"final": 4.335,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2419,
"final": 1.2419,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Shawn Armstrong |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0333 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0203 |
| Avg Velo | 90.2268 |
| Avg Spin | 2349.9541 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 3 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 3 |
| Season ERA | 2.9455 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2000 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9170 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "CLE",
"games": 162,
"wins": 85,
"losses": 77,
"win_pct": 0.5247,
"runs_scored": 678.0,
"runs_allowed": 667.0,
"run_differential": 11.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0679,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1852,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1173,
"offense_index": 0.9324,
"defense_index": 1.0902,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
"run_differential": 21.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1343
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0672,
"defense_index": 1.0099,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1281
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0062,
"offense_edge": -0.0676,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0672,
"defense_strength": 0.0902,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0099,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0003,
"run_prevention": 1.0014,
"strikeout": 0.9948
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "542888",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "542888",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 144.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 12.3,
"woba": 0.313,
"xwoba": 0.315,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.4,
"avg_best_speed": 78.2986,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4,
"whiff_percent": 23.7,
"swing_percent": 49.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0109,
"command_and_miss": -0.23,
"regression_edge": -0.0571,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0857,
"barrel_edge": 0.0222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3571,
"whiff_edge": -0.2143,
"bb_edge": -0.775,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0203
},
"quality_score": -0.0333,
"sample_weight": 0.576,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0028,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9951,
"walk_factor": 1.0357,
"homer_factor": 0.9922,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "542888",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0016,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0016,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0206,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9955,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9972,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 8.1,
"ER": 3,
"H": 6,
"BB": 3,
"SO": 7,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 3.2400000000000007,
"WHIP": 1.08,
"K9": 7.560000000000001,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "542888",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 20,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 20,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.22681028908328,
"release_spin_rate": 2349.954138348354,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 20,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.22681028908328,
"release_spin_rate": 2349.954138348354,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 90.2268,
"release_spin_rate": 2349.9541,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0203,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.1451,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 7.571,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6023,
"prior_weight": 0.3977
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "542888",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 40,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 2.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 17.0,
"Pitches": 70.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 0.4,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.4,
"Pitches": 14.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 6.2308,
"WHIP": 0.9231,
"ER_per_IP": 0.69231,
"H_per_IP": 0.46154,
"BB_per_IP": 0.46154,
"SO_per_IP": 0.46154,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 8.1,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 34.0,
"Pitches": 133.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.3,
"SO": 0.7,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.4,
"Pitches": 13.3
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.24,
"WHIP": 1.08,
"ER_per_IP": 0.36,
"H_per_IP": 0.72,
"BB_per_IP": 0.36,
"SO_per_IP": 0.84,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 40,
"totals": {
"IP": 36.2,
"ER": 12.0,
"R": 13.0,
"H": 27.0,
"BB": 17.0,
"SO": 35.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 151.0,
"Pitches": 621.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.325,
"H": 0.675,
"BB": 0.425,
"SO": 0.875,
"HR": 0.075,
"BF": 3.775,
"Pitches": 15.525
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.9455,
"WHIP": 1.2,
"ER_per_IP": 0.32727,
"H_per_IP": 0.73636,
"BB_per_IP": 0.46364,
"SO_per_IP": 0.95455,
"HR_per_IP": 0.08182
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.472,
"predicted_H": 0.704,
"predicted_BB": 0.379,
"predicted_SO": 0.733,
"predicted_HR": 0.064,
"predicted_ERA": 4.5658,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1655
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.518,
"form_weight": 0.482,
"form_reliability": 0.6023,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 7.571,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6023,
"prior_weight": 0.3977
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.472,
"final": 0.2275,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.704,
"final": 0.8573,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.379,
"final": 0.1827,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 0.733,
"final": 1.9074,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.064,
"final": 0.0308,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.5658,
"final": 4.5658,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1655,
"final": 1.1655,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.161 | 0.000 | -0.161 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | -0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.626 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.722 | 4.000 | 0.278 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.281 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.285 | 0.250 | -0.285 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.565 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.590 | 0.000 | 0.410 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.023 | 0.000 | -0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 1.059 | 1.000 | -1.059 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.023 | 0.000 | -0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.378 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.384 | 0.250 | -0.184 | -0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.537 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.605 | 1.000 | -0.605 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.218 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.238 | 0.000 | -0.238 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.349 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.352 | 0.250 | -0.352 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.388 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.423 | 0.000 | -0.423 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.5650 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4350, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.0200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.5650 -> 0.6169 (boost 0.0519, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.6154 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3846, better) | predicted_SO: 0.3566 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3566, better) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.005 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5274 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4726, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 0.4772 (boost 0.4772, worse) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.5316 (deboost -0.4684, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | predicted_BB: 0.5316 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4684, better) | predicted_SO: 0.4772 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4772, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3360 -> 0.3440 (boost 0.0080, better) | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "680757",
"player_name": "Steven Kwan",
"position": "CF",
"team": "CLE",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.143,
"predicted_3B": 0.02,
"predicted_AB": 3.626,
"predicted_AVG": 0.281,
"predicted_BB": 0.565,
"predicted_H": 1.02,
"predicted_HR": 0.02,
"predicted_OBP": 0.378,
"predicted_R": 0.537,
"predicted_RBI": 0.218,
"predicted_SLG": 0.349,
"predicted_SO": 0.388
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1194,
"predicted_3B": 0.0423,
"predicted_AB": 3.6168,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2803,
"predicted_BB": 0.6169,
"predicted_H": 1.0143,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.0187,
"predicted_OBP": 0.385,
"predicted_R": 0.5309,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2202,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3529,
"predicted_SO": 0.3557
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.565,
"after": 0.6169,
"delta": 0.0519,
"percent_delta": 0.0919,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.378,
"after": 0.385,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0185,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.565,
"after": 0.6169,
"delta": 0.0519,
"percent_delta": 0.0919,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 147
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1194,
"predicted_3B": 0.0423,
"predicted_AB": 3.6168,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2792,
"predicted_BB": 0.6154,
"predicted_H": 1.0099,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.0185,
"predicted_OBP": 0.384,
"predicted_R": 0.5274,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2188,
"predicted_SLG": 0.351,
"predicted_SO": 0.3566
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.005",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1194,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1194,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6168,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.3832,
"percent_delta": 0.106,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.6154,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3846,
"percent_delta": 0.625,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2188,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2188,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.3566,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3566,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.6154,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3846,
"percent_delta": 0.625,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.3566,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3566,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5274,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4726,
"percent_delta": 0.8961,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.5274,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4726,
"percent_delta": 0.8961,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1578,
"predicted_3B": 0.0162,
"predicted_BB": 0.5316,
"predicted_H": 0.9549,
"predicted_HR": 0.0528,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3094,
"predicted_SO": 0.4772
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1578,
"delta": 0.1578,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.5316,
"delta": -0.4684,
"percent_delta": -0.4684,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0528,
"delta": 0.0528,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.3094,
"delta": 0.3094,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.4772,
"delta": 0.4772,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.246,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.342,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.336,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"delta": -0.1578,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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{
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0528,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": -0.042,
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3094,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.351,
"after": 0.336,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -0.0427,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.4772,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4772,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5316,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4684,
"percent_delta": 0.8811,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.4772,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4772,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.246,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.342,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.336,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.246,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.342,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.336,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.252,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.345,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.344,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.246,
"after": 0.252,
"delta": 0.006,
"percent_delta": 0.0244,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.336,
"after": 0.344,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0238,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.336,
"after": 0.344,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0238,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.143,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.143,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.626,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.374,
"percent_delta": 0.1031,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.281,
"after": 0.252,
"delta": -0.029,
"percent_delta": -0.1032,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.565,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.435,
"percent_delta": 0.7699,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.02,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.02,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.378,
"after": 0.345,
"delta": -0.033,
"percent_delta": -0.0873,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.537,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.537,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.218,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.218,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.349,
"after": 0.344,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0143,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.388,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.388,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.565,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.435,
"percent_delta": 0.7699,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.02,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.02,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.626 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.281 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.565 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.020 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.378 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.537 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.218 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.349 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.388 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.119 | -0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.042 | 0.022 |
| predicted_AB | 3.617 | -0.009 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.280 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.617 | 0.052 |
| predicted_H | 1.014 | -0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.019 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.385 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.531 | -0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.220 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.353 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.356 | -0.032 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.042 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.617 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.279 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.615 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.010 | -0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.018 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.384 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.527 | -0.004 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.219 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.351 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.357 | 0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.005
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.158 | 0.158 |
| 3B | 0.016 | 0.016 |
| BB | 0.532 | -0.468 |
| H | 0.955 | -0.045 |
| HR | 0.053 | 0.053 |
| RBI | 0.309 | 0.309 |
| SO | 0.477 | 0.477 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.158 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.246 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.468 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.045 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.053 |
| OBP | 0.342 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.309 |
| SLG | 0.336 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.477 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.042 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.383 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | -0.033 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.385 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.010 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.018 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.342 | -0.042 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.473 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.219 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.357 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.246 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.342 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.336 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.2353 | 0.4091 | 0.3529 | 0.2353 | 0.0000 | 0.0588 | 0.2941 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 12.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 0.3243 | 0.4444 | 0.3784 | 0.3243 | 0.0000 | 0.0541 | 0.2162 | 0.0811 |
| season | 0.60 | 147 | - | 533.000 | 150.000 | 21.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 32.000 | 79.000 | 83.000 | 57.000 | 0.2814 | 0.3794 | 0.3490 | 0.2814 | 0.0056 | 0.0600 | 0.1557 | 0.1069 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0890 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0710 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6050 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2793 |
| predicted_BB | 0.6840 |
| predicted_H | 1.0070 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0130 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0170 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3941 |
| predicted_R | 0.5230 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2230 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3580 |
| predicted_SO | 0.3140 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1430 | 0.0890 | 0.1194 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0200 | 0.0710 | 0.0423 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6260 | 3.6050 | 3.6168 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2810 | 0.2793 | 0.2803 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5650 | 0.6840 | 0.6169 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0200 | 1.0070 | 1.0143 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0130 | 0.0130 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0200 | 0.0170 | 0.0187 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3780 | 0.3941 | 0.3850 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5370 | 0.5230 | 0.5309 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2180 | 0.2230 | 0.2202 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3490 | 0.3580 | 0.3529 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.3880 | 0.3140 | 0.3557 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 608 |
| Season rows before report date | 608 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 147 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 680757 |
| playerID | 680757 |
| playerName | Steven Kwan |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | CLE |
| teamID | 8 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 9.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.334 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.328 |
| sl_xba | 0.277 |
| sl_xslg | 0.343 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 40.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 0.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 10.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 83.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 8.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 35.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.239 | 0.000 | -0.239 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.180 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.828 | 3.000 | 1.172 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.212 | 0.400 | 0.400 | Hitting_AVG | 0.234 | 0.000 | 0.166 | 0.400 |
| predicted_BB | 0.496 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.517 | 1.000 | -0.517 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.033 | 0.000 | -0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.890 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_H | 0.896 | 0.000 | 1.104 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.900 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | 0.400 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.326 | 0.250 | 0.074 | 0.150 |
| predicted_R | 0.569 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.581 | 1.000 | 0.419 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.460 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.466 | 0.000 | 1.534 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.344 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.375 | 0.000 | 0.625 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.577 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.571 | 2.000 | -0.571 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 8 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 9 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.4600 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.5400, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.5770 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5770, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 4.1800 -> 4.0305 (deboost -0.1495, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3361 -> 0.3269 (deboost -0.0092, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6054 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3946, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4983 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4983, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.020 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6012 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3988, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.5450 (boost 0.5450, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.6272 (deboost -0.3728, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | predicted_2B: 0.2056 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7944, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4521 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4521, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 7 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "608070",
"player_name": "José Ramírez",
"position": "3B",
"team": "CLE",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.18,
"predicted_AVG": 0.212,
"predicted_BB": 0.496,
"predicted_H": 0.89,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.31,
"predicted_R": 0.569,
"predicted_RBI": 0.46,
"predicted_SLG": 0.344,
"predicted_SO": 0.577
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1913,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.0305,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2163,
"predicted_BB": 0.4995,
"predicted_H": 0.8731,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.0861,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3096,
"predicted_R": 0.6051,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4435,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3361,
"predicted_SO": 0.6039
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"before": 4.18,
"after": 4.0305,
"delta": -0.1495,
"percent_delta": -0.0358,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.344,
"after": 0.3361,
"delta": -0.0079,
"percent_delta": -0.023,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
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"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 123
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.0305,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2157,
"predicted_BB": 0.4983,
"predicted_H": 0.8693,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.0853,
"predicted_OBP": 0.302,
"predicted_R": 0.6012,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4406,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3269,
"predicted_SO": 0.6054
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"before": 0.3096,
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"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.0245,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
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"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3361,
"after": 0.3269,
"delta": -0.0092,
"percent_delta": -0.0274,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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"summary": {
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"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.020",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
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"changed_metrics": [
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"before": 0.1913,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1913,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
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"delta": 0.3946,
"percent_delta": 0.6518,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
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"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 4,
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"material": true
}
}
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{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
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"delta": 0.3988,
"percent_delta": 0.6633,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0084,
"predicted_BB": 0.545,
"predicted_H": 0.8695,
"predicted_HR": 0.1151,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4521,
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"direction": "boost",
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}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.22,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
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"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.363,
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"delta": 0.7944,
"percent_delta": 3.8638,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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"delta": 0.455,
"percent_delta": 0.8349,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
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"delta": 0.1305,
"percent_delta": 0.1501,
"direction": "boost",
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
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"after": 0.363,
"delta": 0.0361,
"percent_delta": 0.1104,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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"percent_delta": 0.5944,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
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"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 5,
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"percent_delta": 3.8638,
"direction": "boost",
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"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
}
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
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"predicted_AVG": 0.22,
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"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.22,
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{
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"step": "market_blend",
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{
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.22,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.319,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.363,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.22,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.18,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.82,
"percent_delta": 0.1962,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.212,
"after": 0.22,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0377,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.496,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.496,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.89,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.11,
"percent_delta": 1.2472,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.91,
"percent_delta": 10.1111,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.319,
"delta": 0.009,
"percent_delta": 0.029,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.569,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.431,
"percent_delta": 0.7575,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.46,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.54,
"percent_delta": 3.3478,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.344,
"after": 0.363,
"delta": 0.019,
"percent_delta": 0.0552,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.577,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.577,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 8,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 9,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.46,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.54,
"percent_delta": 3.3478,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.577,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.577,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.180 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.212 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.496 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.890 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.569 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.460 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.344 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.577 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.191 | -0.029 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.030 | -0.149 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.499 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.873 | -0.017 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.086 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | -0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.605 | 0.036 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.444 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.604 | 0.027 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.191 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.498 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.869 | -0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.085 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.302 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.601 | -0.004 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.441 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.327 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.605 | 0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.020
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.206 | 0.206 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.545 | 0.545 |
| H | 0.870 | -0.130 |
| HR | 0.115 | 0.115 |
| RBI | 0.452 | 0.452 |
| SO | 0.627 | -0.373 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.794 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.220 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.455 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.130 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.115 |
| OBP | 0.319 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| SLG | 0.363 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.373 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 1.000 | 0.809 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.030 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.502 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.131 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.085 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | 0.017 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.399 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.441 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.363 | 0.036 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.395 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.220 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.319 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.363 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.1579 | 0.2609 | 0.1579 | 0.1579 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.1579 | 0.2105 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3261 | 0.3500 | 0.2500 | 0.0250 | 0.1000 | 0.1250 | 0.1500 |
| season | 0.60 | 123 | - | 467.000 | 108.000 | 27.000 | 0.000 | 12.000 | 53.000 | 70.000 | 61.000 | 71.000 | 0.2313 | 0.3197 | 0.3662 | 0.2313 | 0.0257 | 0.1135 | 0.1306 | 0.1520 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1540 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8360 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2218 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5040 |
| predicted_H | 0.8510 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0810 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3090 |
| predicted_R | 0.6520 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4220 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3258 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6390 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2200 | 0.1540 | 0.1913 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.1800 | 3.8360 | 4.0305 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2120 | 0.2218 | 0.2163 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4960 | 0.5040 | 0.4995 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8900 | 0.8510 | 0.8731 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0160 | 0.0160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.0810 | 0.0861 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3100 | 0.3090 | 0.3096 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5690 | 0.6520 | 0.6051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4600 | 0.4220 | 0.4435 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3440 | 0.3258 | 0.3361 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5770 | 0.6390 | 0.6039 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 511 |
| Season rows before report date | 511 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 123 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 608070 |
| playerID | 608070 |
| playerName | José Ramírez |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | CLE |
| teamID | 8 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 12.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.301 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.325 |
| sl_xba | 0.266 |
| sl_xslg | 0.391 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 19.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 15.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.215 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.221 | 0.000 | -0.221 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.510 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.930 | 4.000 | 1.070 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.281 | 0.500 | -0.081 | -0.300 |
| predicted_BB | 0.438 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.463 | 0.000 | -0.463 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.017 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.160 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.106 | 2.000 | -0.106 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.127 | 0.000 | -0.127 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.340 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.356 | 0.500 | -0.156 | -0.300 |
| predicted_R | 0.462 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.499 | 1.000 | 0.501 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.530 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.561 | 0.000 | -0.561 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.409 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.449 | 0.500 | -0.249 | -0.300 |
| predicted_SO | 0.623 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.647 | 0.000 | -0.647 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.4620 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5380, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6230 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6230, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4090 -> 0.4234 (boost 0.0144, better) | predicted_AB: 4.5100 -> 4.2182 (deboost -0.2918, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3425 -> 0.3296 (deboost -0.0129, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.6420 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3580, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.5076 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5076, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.034 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4818 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4818, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5319 (boost 0.5319, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7088 (deboost -0.2912, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1246 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1246, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.3310 -> 0.3390 (boost 0.0080, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4060 -> 0.3970 (deboost -0.0090, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
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"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.251,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.339,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.397,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.331,
"after": 0.339,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0242,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.406,
"after": 0.397,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -0.0222,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.331,
"after": 0.339,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0242,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.406,
"after": 0.397,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -0.0222,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.215,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.215,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.51,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.49,
"percent_delta": 0.1086,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.258,
"after": 0.251,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0271,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.438,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.438,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.16,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.16,
"percent_delta": -0.1379,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.16,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.462,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.538,
"percent_delta": 1.1645,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.53,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.53,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.397,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.0293,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.623,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.623,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.462,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.538,
"percent_delta": 1.1645,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.623,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.623,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.215 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.510 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.438 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.160 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.340 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.462 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.530 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.409 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.623 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.212 | -0.003 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 4.218 | -0.292 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.452 | 0.014 |
| predicted_H | 1.093 | -0.067 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.025 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.157 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.343 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.485 | 0.023 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.511 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.423 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 0.640 | 0.017 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.212 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.218 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.451 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.088 | -0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.155 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.330 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.482 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.508 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.428 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.642 | 0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.034
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.180 | 0.180 |
| 3B | 0.017 | 0.017 |
| BB | 0.418 | 0.418 |
| H | 0.964 | -0.036 |
| HR | 0.125 | 0.125 |
| RBI | 0.532 | 0.532 |
| SO | 0.709 | -0.291 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.820 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.017 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.252 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.582 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.036 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.125 |
| OBP | 0.331 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.468 |
| SLG | 0.406 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.291 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 1.000 | 0.788 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.218 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.252 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.549 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.088 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.331 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.518 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.492 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.406 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.358 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.252 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.331 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.406 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.2000 | 0.3043 | 0.4000 | 0.2000 | 0.0500 | 0.1000 | 0.1500 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 0.2564 | 0.3556 | 0.4615 | 0.2564 | 0.0513 | 0.1282 | 0.1282 | 0.1538 |
| season | 0.60 | 130 | - | 490.000 | 140.000 | 28.000 | 3.000 | 16.000 | 66.000 | 60.000 | 57.000 | 81.000 | 0.2857 | 0.3600 | 0.4531 | 0.2857 | 0.0326 | 0.1347 | 0.1163 | 0.1653 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2080 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8390 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2619 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4700 |
| predicted_H | 1.0060 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0250 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1520 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3458 |
| predicted_R | 0.5150 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4422 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6630 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2150 | 0.2080 | 0.2120 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0230 | 0.0140 | 0.0191 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.5100 | 3.8390 | 4.2182 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2580 | 0.2619 | 0.2597 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4380 | 0.4700 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1600 | 1.0060 | 1.0930 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0250 | 0.0250 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.1520 | 0.1565 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3400 | 0.3458 | 0.3425 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4620 | 0.5150 | 0.4850 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5300 | 0.4860 | 0.5109 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4090 | 0.4422 | 0.4234 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6230 | 0.6630 | 0.6404 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 529 |
| Season rows before report date | 529 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 130 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 800050 |
| playerID | 800050 |
| playerName | Chase DeLauter |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | CLE |
| teamID | 8 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.359 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.346 |
| sl_xba | 0.277 |
| sl_xslg | 0.427 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 46.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 15.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.163 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.243 | 0.000 | -0.243 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.006 | 1.000 | -0.006 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.794 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.908 | 3.000 | 0.092 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.237 | 0.333 | 0.013 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.219 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.399 | 1.000 | -0.399 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.906 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.925 | 1.000 | 0.075 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.144 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.145 | 0.000 | -0.145 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.280 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.322 | 0.500 | -0.072 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.438 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.520 | 0.000 | 0.480 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.588 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.728 | 1.000 | -0.728 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.402 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.413 | 1.000 | -0.163 | -0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 1.012 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.110 | 2.000 | 0.890 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.0120 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.9880, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.5880 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5880, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.2190 -> 0.3021 (boost 0.0831, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5421 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4579, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3013 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3013, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.038 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4730 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4730, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.2811 (boost 0.2811, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5693 (deboost -0.4307, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 6 | predicted_RBI: 0.5693 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4307, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2811 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2811, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.2870 -> 0.3050 (boost 0.0180, better) | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
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"role": "batter",
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{
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"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.219,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.906,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.094,
"percent_delta": 0.1038,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.065,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.065,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.144,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.144,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.305,
"delta": 0.025,
"percent_delta": 0.0893,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.438,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.562,
"percent_delta": 1.2831,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.588,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.588,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.012,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.988,
"percent_delta": 0.9763,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.012,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.988,
"percent_delta": 0.9763,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.588,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.588,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.163 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.794 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.219 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.906 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.144 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.280 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.438 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.588 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.402 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.012 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | -0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.037 | 0.024 |
| predicted_AB | 3.778 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.242 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.302 | 0.083 |
| predicted_H | 0.915 | 0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.065 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.145 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | 0.021 |
| predicted_R | 0.476 | 0.038 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.546 | -0.042 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | 0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 1.025 | 0.013 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.037 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.778 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.301 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.911 | -0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.065 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.144 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.297 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.473 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.542 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.417 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 1.027 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.038
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.180 | 0.180 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.281 | 0.281 |
| H | 0.871 | -0.129 |
| HR | 0.149 | 0.149 |
| RBI | 0.569 | -0.431 |
| SO | 1.044 | 0.044 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.180 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.228 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.281 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.129 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.149 |
| OBP | 0.287 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.431 |
| SLG | 0.399 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.044 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.161 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.037 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.222 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | -0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.301 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.089 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.144 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.473 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.458 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.399 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.027 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.228 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.287 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.399 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 0.2778 | 0.4091 | 0.6111 | 0.2778 | 0.0556 | 0.1111 | 0.2222 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 10.000 | 0.2368 | 0.3409 | 0.3947 | 0.2368 | 0.0263 | 0.0790 | 0.1579 | 0.2632 |
| season | 0.60 | 160 | - | 607.000 | 145.000 | 26.000 | 2.000 | 23.000 | 94.000 | 70.000 | 35.000 | 162.000 | 0.2389 | 0.2982 | 0.4020 | 0.2389 | 0.0379 | 0.1549 | 0.0577 | 0.2669 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1590 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0670 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7580 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2463 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4090 |
| predicted_H | 0.9260 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0650 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1460 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3279 |
| predicted_R | 0.5250 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4910 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4408 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0410 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1630 | 0.1590 | 0.1613 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0670 | 0.0366 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7940 | 3.7580 | 3.7783 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2390 | 0.2463 | 0.2422 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2190 | 0.4090 | 0.3021 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9060 | 0.9260 | 0.9147 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0650 | 0.0650 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1440 | 0.1460 | 0.1449 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2800 | 0.3279 | 0.3009 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4380 | 0.5250 | 0.4761 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5880 | 0.4910 | 0.5456 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4020 | 0.4408 | 0.4190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0120 | 1.0410 | 1.0247 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 173 |
| Season rows before report date | 173 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 160 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 1 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 1 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 666176 |
| playerID | 666176 |
| playerName | Jo Adell |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | CLE |
| teamID | 8 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.307 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.329 |
| sl_xba | 0.257 |
| sl_xslg | 0.444 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.186 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.187 | 0.000 | 1.813 | 2.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.200 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.496 | 4.000 | -0.496 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | 0.667 | 0.667 | Hitting_AVG | 0.237 | 0.000 | 0.430 | 0.667 |
| predicted_BB | 0.305 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.309 | 0.000 | -0.309 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.750 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_H | 0.827 | 0.000 | 1.173 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.137 | 0.000 | -0.137 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.288 | 0.750 | 0.750 | Hitting_OBP | 0.292 | 0.000 | 0.458 | 0.750 |
| predicted_R | 0.297 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.345 | 0.000 | 0.655 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.610 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.705 | 1.000 | 0.295 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.380 | 1.333 | 1.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.407 | 0.000 | 0.926 | 1.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.806 | 1.000 | -0.806 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 8 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1860 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.8140, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8310 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8310, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.2866 -> 0.2956 (boost 0.0090, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.2121 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.7879, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2785 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2785, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.027 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2523 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2523, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3320 (boost 0.3320, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5741 (deboost -0.4259, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5741 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4259, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3320 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3320, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4040 -> 0.3910 (deboost -0.0130, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663993",
"player_name": "Nathaniel Lowe",
"position": "1B",
"team": "CLE",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.186,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.2,
"predicted_AVG": 0.235,
"predicted_BB": 0.305,
"predicted_H": 0.75,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.288,
"predicted_R": 0.297,
"predicted_RBI": 0.61,
"predicted_SLG": 0.38,
"predicted_SO": 0.831
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1804,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.2121,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2359,
"predicted_BB": 0.2792,
"predicted_H": 0.7565,
"predicted_HBP": 0.03,
"predicted_HR": 0.0878,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2866,
"predicted_R": 0.254,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6195,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3756,
"predicted_SO": 0.7867
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 118
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1804,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.2121,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2345,
"predicted_BB": 0.2785,
"predicted_H": 0.7532,
"predicted_HBP": 0.03,
"predicted_HR": 0.087,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2956,
"predicted_R": 0.2523,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6155,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3722,
"predicted_SO": 0.7887
},
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{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
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"index": 8,
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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},
{
"index": 10,
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
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},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
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},
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"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
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],
"total_change": {
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.186 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.200 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.305 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.750 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.288 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.297 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.610 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.380 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.180 | -0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.212 | 0.012 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.279 | -0.026 |
| predicted_H | 0.756 | 0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.088 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.254 | -0.043 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.620 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.376 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.787 | -0.044 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.180 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.212 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.279 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.753 | -0.003 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.087 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | 0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.252 | -0.002 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.616 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.372 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.789 | 0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.027
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.167 | 0.167 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.332 | 0.332 |
| H | 0.832 | -0.168 |
| HR | 0.138 | 0.138 |
| RBI | 0.574 | -0.426 |
| SO | 0.992 | -0.008 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.167 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.235 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.332 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.168 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.138 |
| OBP | 0.306 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.426 |
| SLG | 0.404 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.008 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.180 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.788 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.279 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.247 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.087 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.252 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.384 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.211 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.235 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.306 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.404 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.1875 | 0.2105 | 0.2500 | 0.1875 | 0.0000 | 0.3125 | 0.0625 | 0.1875 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2703 | 0.2812 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.1875 | 0.0312 | 0.1562 |
| season | 0.60 | 118 | - | 375.000 | 93.000 | 22.000 | 0.000 | 16.000 | 63.000 | 35.000 | 36.000 | 98.000 | 0.2480 | 0.3119 | 0.4347 | 0.2480 | 0.0427 | 0.1680 | 0.0960 | 0.2613 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1730 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2280 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2371 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2450 |
| predicted_H | 0.7650 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0300 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0850 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2848 |
| predicted_R | 0.1970 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6320 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3697 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7280 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1860 | 0.1730 | 0.1804 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.2000 | 3.2280 | 3.2121 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2350 | 0.2371 | 0.2359 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3050 | 0.2450 | 0.2792 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7500 | 0.7650 | 0.7565 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0300 | 0.0300 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.0850 | 0.0878 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2880 | 0.2848 | 0.2866 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2970 | 0.1970 | 0.2540 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6100 | 0.6320 | 0.6195 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3800 | 0.3697 | 0.3756 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.7280 | 0.7867 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 139 |
| Season rows before report date | 139 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 118 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 2 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 1 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663993 |
| playerID | 663993 |
| playerName | Nathaniel Lowe |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | CLE |
| teamID | 8 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.329 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.335 |
| sl_xba | 0.268 |
| sl_xslg | 0.437 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.239 | 0.000 | -0.239 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.260 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.842 | 4.000 | 0.158 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.260 | 0.000 | -0.260 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.119 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.133 | 0.000 | -0.133 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.033 | 0.000 | -0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.920 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 1.000 | 0.000 | -1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.171 | 0.000 | -0.171 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.298 | 0.000 | -0.298 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.450 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.497 | 0.000 | -0.497 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.650 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.606 | 0.000 | -0.606 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.464 | 0.000 | -0.464 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.872 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.917 | 2.000 | 0.083 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8720 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1280, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4010 -> 0.4080 (boost 0.0070, better) | predicted_AB: 4.2600 -> 4.0560 (deboost -0.2040, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4080 -> 0.3941 (deboost -0.0139, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.6522 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3478, better) | predicted_2B: 0.2239 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2239, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.036 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4205 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4205, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.2046 (boost 0.2046, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5556 (deboost -0.4444, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 10 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 3 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2046 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2046, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "682657",
"player_name": "Angel Martínez",
"position": "LF",
"team": "CLE",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.22,
"predicted_3B": 0.018,
"predicted_AB": 4.26,
"predicted_AVG": 0.216,
"predicted_BB": 0.119,
"predicted_H": 0.92,
"predicted_HR": 0.15,
"predicted_OBP": 0.25,
"predicted_R": 0.45,
"predicted_RBI": 0.65,
"predicted_SLG": 0.401,
"predicted_SO": 0.872
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2239,
"predicted_3B": 0.0154,
"predicted_AB": 4.056,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2191,
"predicted_BB": 0.1276,
"predicted_H": 0.8877,
"predicted_HBP": 0.04,
"predicted_HR": 0.1547,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2534,
"predicted_R": 0.4233,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6565,
"predicted_SLG": 0.408,
"predicted_SO": 0.8983
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.26,
"after": 4.056,
"delta": -0.204,
"percent_delta": -0.0479,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.408,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0175,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.408,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0175,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.26,
"after": 4.056,
"delta": -0.204,
"percent_delta": -0.0479,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 109
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2239,
"predicted_3B": 0.0154,
"predicted_AB": 4.056,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2179,
"predicted_BB": 0.1273,
"predicted_H": 0.8839,
"predicted_HBP": 0.04,
"predicted_HR": 0.1533,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2417,
"predicted_R": 0.4205,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6522,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3941,
"predicted_SO": 0.9005
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2534,
"after": 0.2417,
"delta": -0.0117,
"percent_delta": -0.0462,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.408,
"after": 0.3941,
"delta": -0.0139,
"percent_delta": -0.0341,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.408,
"after": 0.3941,
"delta": -0.0139,
"percent_delta": -0.0341,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.036",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2239,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2239,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.056,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.056,
"percent_delta": -0.0138,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1273,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1273,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8839,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1161,
"percent_delta": 0.1313,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1533,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1533,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6522,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3478,
"percent_delta": 0.5333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0135,
"predicted_BB": 0.2046,
"predicted_H": 0.8689,
"predicted_HR": 0.1637,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5556,
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.237,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.283,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.431,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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{
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
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"predicted_AVG": 0.237,
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},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.237,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.283,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.431,
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},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter",
"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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}
],
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}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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},
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},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.237,
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"predicted_CS": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
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"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
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}
}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.401,
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"delta": 0.03,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.260 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.119 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.920 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.450 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.650 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.872 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.224 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.056 | -0.204 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.128 | 0.009 |
| predicted_H | 0.888 | -0.032 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.155 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.253 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.423 | -0.027 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.656 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.408 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.898 | 0.026 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.224 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.056 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.218 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.127 | -0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.884 | -0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.040 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.153 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.242 | -0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.420 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.652 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.394 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 0.900 | 0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.036
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.198 | 0.198 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.205 | 0.205 |
| H | 0.869 | -0.131 |
| HR | 0.164 | 0.164 |
| RBI | 0.556 | -0.444 |
| SO | 0.941 | -0.059 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.198 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.237 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.205 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.131 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.836 |
| OBP | 0.283 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.444 |
| SLG | 0.431 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.059 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.224 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.056 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.237 | 0.019 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.127 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.116 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.847 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | 0.041 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.580 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.348 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.431 | 0.037 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.100 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.237 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.283 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.431 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.0952 | 0.1364 | 0.1429 | 0.0952 | 0.0000 | 0.1905 | 0.0476 | 0.2857 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.2632 | 0.2821 | 0.5789 | 0.2632 | 0.0790 | 0.2368 | 0.0263 | 0.2368 |
| season | 0.60 | 109 | - | 397.000 | 99.000 | 24.000 | 2.000 | 18.000 | 62.000 | 49.000 | 13.000 | 95.000 | 0.2494 | 0.2847 | 0.4559 | 0.2494 | 0.0453 | 0.1562 | 0.0328 | 0.2393 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2290 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7860 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2231 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1390 |
| predicted_H | 0.8450 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0400 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1610 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2579 |
| predicted_R | 0.3880 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6650 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4172 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9330 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2200 | 0.2290 | 0.2239 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0180 | 0.0120 | 0.0154 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.2600 | 3.7860 | 4.0560 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2160 | 0.2231 | 0.2191 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1190 | 0.1390 | 0.1276 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9200 | 0.8450 | 0.8877 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0400 | 0.0400 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1500 | 0.1610 | 0.1547 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2500 | 0.2579 | 0.2534 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4500 | 0.3880 | 0.4233 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6500 | 0.6650 | 0.6565 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4010 | 0.4172 | 0.4080 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8720 | 0.9330 | 0.8983 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 398 |
| Season rows before report date | 398 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 109 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 682657 |
| playerID | 682657 |
| playerName | Angel Martínez |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | CLE |
| teamID | 8 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.326 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.299 |
| sl_xba | 0.251 |
| sl_xslg | 0.401 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.177 | 0.000 | -0.177 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | -0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.634 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.709 | 3.000 | -0.709 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.249 | 0.000 | 0.084 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.447 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.503 | 1.000 | 0.497 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.045 | 0.000 | -0.045 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.800 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.925 | 0.000 | 0.075 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.126 | 0.000 | -0.126 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.304 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.344 | 0.250 | 0.156 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.439 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.466 | 0.000 | 0.534 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.521 | 0.000 | 1.479 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.171 | 0.000 | -0.171 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.378 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.405 | 0.000 | -0.071 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.870 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.900 | 1.000 | 0.100 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.2900 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.7100, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.6340 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.6340, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3780 -> 0.3877 (boost 0.0097, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3877 -> 0.3675 (deboost -0.0202, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.8160 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1840, better) | predicted_AB: 3.6652 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.6652, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.021 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4383 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4383, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4437 (boost 0.4437, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7884 (deboost -0.2116, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.7884 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2116, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4437 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4437, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "683953",
"player_name": "Travis Bazzana",
"position": "2B",
"team": "CLE",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.179,
"predicted_3B": 0.016,
"predicted_AB": 3.634,
"predicted_AVG": 0.226,
"predicted_BB": 0.447,
"predicted_H": 0.8,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.304,
"predicted_R": 0.439,
"predicted_RBI": 0.29,
"predicted_SLG": 0.378,
"predicted_SO": 0.87
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2211,
"predicted_3B": 0.0373,
"predicted_AB": 3.6652,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2269,
"predicted_BB": 0.4036,
"predicted_H": 0.8195,
"predicted_HBP": 0.035,
"predicted_HR": 0.0791,
"predicted_OBP": 0.301,
"predicted_R": 0.4412,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2874,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3877,
"predicted_SO": 0.8843
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.378,
"after": 0.3877,
"delta": 0.0097,
"percent_delta": 0.0257,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.378,
"after": 0.3877,
"delta": 0.0097,
"percent_delta": 0.0257,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 123
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2211,
"predicted_3B": 0.0373,
"predicted_AB": 3.6652,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2226,
"predicted_BB": 0.4026,
"predicted_H": 0.816,
"predicted_HBP": 0.035,
"predicted_HR": 0.0784,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2996,
"predicted_R": 0.4383,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2855,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3675,
"predicted_SO": 0.8865
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3877,
"after": 0.3675,
"delta": -0.0202,
"percent_delta": -0.0521,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3877,
"after": 0.3675,
"delta": -0.0202,
"percent_delta": -0.0521,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.021",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2211,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2211,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6652,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.6652,
"percent_delta": -0.1815,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4026,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4026,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.816,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.184,
"percent_delta": 0.2255,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0784,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0784,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2855,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2855,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8865,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1135,
"percent_delta": 0.128,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.816,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.184,
"percent_delta": 0.2255,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6652,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.6652,
"percent_delta": -0.1815,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4383,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4383,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4383,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4383,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1527,
"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_BB": 0.3882,
"predicted_H": 0.7884,
"predicted_HR": 0.113,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4437,
"predicted_SO": 0.8727
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1527,
"delta": 0.1527,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.3882,
"delta": 0.3882,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.7884,
"delta": -0.2116,
"percent_delta": -0.2116,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.113,
"delta": 0.113,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.4437,
"delta": 0.4437,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8727,
"delta": -0.1273,
"percent_delta": -0.1273,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.4437,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.7884,
"delta": -0.2116,
"percent_delta": -0.2116,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.228,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.378,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": -0.1527,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": 0.0054,
"percent_delta": 0.0243,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"delta": -0.3882,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": -0.113,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": 0.0124,
"percent_delta": 0.0414,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"after": 0.378,
"delta": 0.0105,
"percent_delta": 0.0286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 0.1273,
"percent_delta": 0.1459,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 4,
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"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.228,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.378,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.228,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.378,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"worse_metrics": 0,
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.227,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.309,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.374,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.179,
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"delta": -0.179,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.634,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.634,
"percent_delta": -0.1745,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.553,
"percent_delta": 1.2371,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.304,
"after": 0.309,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0164,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.439,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.561,
"percent_delta": 1.2779,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.71,
"percent_delta": 5.8966,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.13,
"percent_delta": 0.1494,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"better_metrics": 5,
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 3.634,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.634,
"percent_delta": -0.1745,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.634 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.447 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.800 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.304 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.439 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.378 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.870 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.221 | 0.042 |
| predicted_3B | 0.037 | 0.021 |
| predicted_AB | 3.665 | 0.031 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.404 | -0.043 |
| predicted_H | 0.820 | 0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.035 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.079 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.441 | 0.002 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.287 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.388 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.884 | 0.014 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.221 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.037 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.665 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.403 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.816 | -0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.078 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.300 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.438 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.285 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.367 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 0.886 | 0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.021
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.153 | 0.153 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.388 | 0.388 |
| H | 0.788 | -0.212 |
| HR | 0.113 | 0.113 |
| RBI | 0.444 | 0.444 |
| SO | 0.873 | -0.127 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.153 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.228 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.388 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.212 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.113 |
| OBP | 0.312 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.444 |
| SLG | 0.378 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.127 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.221 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.037 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.665 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.403 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.184 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.078 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.438 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.285 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.378 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.114 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.228 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.312 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.378 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2857 | 0.5000 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 0.1667 | 0.2105 | 0.3056 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.3056 |
| season | 0.60 | 123 | - | 447.000 | 107.000 | 22.000 | 2.000 | 15.000 | 55.000 | 54.000 | 55.000 | 107.000 | 0.2394 | 0.3288 | 0.3982 | 0.2394 | 0.0336 | 0.1230 | 0.1230 | 0.2394 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2760 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0650 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7060 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2281 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3470 |
| predicted_H | 0.8450 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0350 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0780 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2970 |
| predicted_R | 0.4440 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2840 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9030 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1790 | 0.2760 | 0.2211 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 | 0.0650 | 0.0373 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6340 | 3.7060 | 3.6652 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2260 | 0.2281 | 0.2269 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4470 | 0.3470 | 0.4036 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8000 | 0.8450 | 0.8195 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0350 | 0.0350 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0780 | 0.0791 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3040 | 0.2970 | 0.3010 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4390 | 0.4440 | 0.4412 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2900 | 0.2840 | 0.2874 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3780 | 0.4004 | 0.3877 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8700 | 0.9030 | 0.8843 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 491 |
| Season rows before report date | 491 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 123 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 683953 |
| playerID | 683953 |
| playerName | Travis Bazzana |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | CLE |
| teamID | 8 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.328 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.299 |
| sl_xba | 0.224 |
| sl_xslg | 0.347 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.135 | 0.000 | -0.135 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.010 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.094 | 4.000 | 0.906 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.222 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.261 | 0.000 | -0.011 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.314 | 0.000 | -0.314 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.660 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.808 | 0.000 | 0.192 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.122 | 0.000 | -0.122 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.260 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.329 | 0.000 | -0.079 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.290 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.359 | 0.000 | -0.359 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.465 | 0.000 | -0.465 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.398 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.434 | 0.000 | -0.184 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.900 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.922 | 1.000 | 0.078 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.0100 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.9900, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.4200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2220 -> 0.2163 (deboost -0.0057, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2562 -> 0.2664 (boost 0.0102, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4000 -> 0.3943 (deboost -0.0057, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.6525 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3475, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4130 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4130, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.051 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3118 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3118, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4195 (boost 0.4195, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7351 (deboost -0.2649, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 6 | predicted_OBP: 0.2664 -> 0.2960 (boost 0.0296, better) | predicted_H: 0.7351 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7351, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3750 -> 0.3690 (deboost -0.0060, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "672275",
"player_name": "Patrick Bailey",
"position": "C",
"team": "CLE",
"steps": [
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"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.01,
"predicted_AB": 3.01,
"predicted_AVG": 0.222,
"predicted_BB": 0.25,
"predicted_H": 0.66,
"predicted_HR": 0.14,
"predicted_OBP": 0.26,
"predicted_R": 0.29,
"predicted_RBI": 0.42,
"predicted_SLG": 0.398,
"predicted_SO": 0.9
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0087,
"predicted_AB": 3.0521,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2163,
"predicted_BB": 0.2194,
"predicted_H": 0.6553,
"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.1557,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2562,
"predicted_R": 0.3138,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4157,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4,
"predicted_SO": 0.9464
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"before": 0.222,
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"summary": {
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"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"last_10": 10,
"season": 100
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0087,
"predicted_AB": 3.0521,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2138,
"predicted_BB": 0.2189,
"predicted_H": 0.6525,
"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.1543,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2664,
"predicted_R": 0.3118,
"predicted_RBI": 0.413,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3943,
"predicted_SO": 0.9488
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{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
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}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.051",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0706,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
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{
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"direction": "deboost",
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"delta": 0.0512,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
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"direction": "boost",
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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"delta": -0.3118,
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
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}
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{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0107,
"predicted_BB": 0.3356,
"predicted_H": 0.7351,
"predicted_HR": 0.1188,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4195,
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
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}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.219,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.296,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.375,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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"delta": -0.1455,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0243,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
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"delta": -0.0193,
"percent_delta": -0.0489,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.219,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.219,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.296,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.375,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.217,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.296,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.369,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.375,
"after": 0.369,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.016,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.375,
"after": 0.369,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.016,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.01,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.99,
"percent_delta": 0.3289,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.222,
"after": 0.217,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0225,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.25,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.34,
"percent_delta": 0.5152,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.26,
"after": 0.296,
"delta": 0.036,
"percent_delta": 0.1385,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.29,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.42,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.398,
"after": 0.369,
"delta": -0.029,
"percent_delta": -0.0729,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1111,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.01,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.99,
"percent_delta": 0.3289,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.42,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.010 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.222 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.660 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.398 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.900 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.071 | -0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.052 | 0.042 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.219 | -0.031 |
| predicted_H | 0.655 | -0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.156 | 0.016 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.256 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.314 | 0.024 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.416 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.400 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.946 | 0.046 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.071 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.052 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.214 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.219 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.652 | -0.003 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.154 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.266 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.312 | -0.002 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.413 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.394 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.949 | 0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.051
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.145 | 0.145 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.336 | 0.336 |
| H | 0.735 | -0.265 |
| HR | 0.119 | 0.119 |
| RBI | 0.419 | 0.419 |
| SO | 1.008 | 0.008 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.219 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.336 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.735 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| OBP | 0.296 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.419 |
| SLG | 0.375 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.008 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.071 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.052 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.219 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.652 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.154 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | 0.030 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.312 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.413 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.375 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.051 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.219 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.296 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.375 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.6000 | 0.2000 | 0.1333 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 14.000 | 0.1875 | 0.2121 | 0.3750 | 0.1875 | 0.0625 | 0.0938 | 0.0312 | 0.4375 |
| season | 0.60 | 100 | - | 301.000 | 64.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 37.000 | 29.000 | 25.000 | 90.000 | 0.2126 | 0.2727 | 0.3455 | 0.2126 | 0.0332 | 0.1229 | 0.0831 | 0.2990 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0580 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 |
| predicted_AB | 3.1090 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2086 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1780 |
| predicted_H | 0.6490 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1770 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2510 |
| predicted_R | 0.3460 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4100 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4027 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0090 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0800 | 0.0580 | 0.0706 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 | 0.0070 | 0.0087 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.0100 | 3.1090 | 3.0521 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2220 | 0.2086 | 0.2163 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2500 | 0.1780 | 0.2194 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6600 | 0.6490 | 0.6553 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0080 | 0.0080 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.1770 | 0.1557 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2600 | 0.2510 | 0.2562 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2900 | 0.3460 | 0.3138 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4200 | 0.4100 | 0.4157 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3980 | 0.4027 | 0.4000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9000 | 1.0090 | 0.9464 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 245 |
| Season rows before report date | 245 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 100 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 672275 |
| playerID | 672275 |
| playerName | Patrick Bailey |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | CLE |
| teamID | 8 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.271 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.307 |
| sl_xba | 0.24 |
| sl_xslg | 0.398 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.165 | 0.000 | -0.165 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | -0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.490 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.602 | 3.000 | 0.398 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.245 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.256 | 0.000 | -0.256 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.035 | 0.000 | -0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.840 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.900 | 0.000 | 0.100 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.082 | 0.000 | -0.082 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.312 | 0.000 | -0.062 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.424 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.437 | 0.000 | -0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.442 | 0.000 | -0.442 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.416 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.371 | 0.000 | -0.121 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.563 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.581 | 0.000 | 1.419 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.5630 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4370, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.4800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.4240 -> 0.4828 (boost 0.0588, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3240 -> 0.3006 (deboost -0.0234, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.5683 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4317, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4894 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4894, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.041 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4797 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4797, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4076 (boost 0.4076, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.5524 (deboost -0.4476, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 6 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 0.5524 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5524, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3000 -> 0.3120 (boost 0.0120, better) | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "677587",
"player_name": "Brayan Rocchio",
"position": "SS",
"team": "CLE",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 3.49,
"predicted_AVG": 0.247,
"predicted_BB": 0.245,
"predicted_H": 0.84,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_OBP": 0.325,
"predicted_R": 0.424,
"predicted_RBI": 0.48,
"predicted_SLG": 0.416,
"predicted_SO": 0.563
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0108,
"predicted_AB": 3.4569,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2503,
"predicted_BB": 0.2724,
"predicted_H": 0.8526,
"predicted_HBP": 0.042,
"predicted_HR": 0.1435,
"predicted_OBP": 0.324,
"predicted_R": 0.4828,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4926,
"predicted_SLG": 0.44,
"predicted_SO": 0.5669
},
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"before": 0.424,
"after": 0.4828,
"delta": 0.0588,
"percent_delta": 0.1387,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.416,
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"delta": 0.024,
"percent_delta": 0.0577,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
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"last_10": 10,
"season": 151
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0108,
"predicted_AB": 3.4569,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2456,
"predicted_BB": 0.2717,
"predicted_H": 0.8489,
"predicted_HBP": 0.042,
"predicted_HR": 0.1422,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3006,
"predicted_R": 0.4797,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4894,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4276,
"predicted_SO": 0.5683
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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{
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{
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}
},
{
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"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"index": 6,
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{
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.242,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.383,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.234,
"after": 0.242,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0342,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.312,
"delta": 0.012,
"percent_delta": 0.04,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.376,
"after": 0.383,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0186,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.312,
"delta": 0.012,
"percent_delta": 0.04,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.166,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.166,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.49,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.51,
"percent_delta": 0.1461,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.247,
"after": 0.242,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0202,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.245,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.84,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.16,
"percent_delta": 0.1905,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.12,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.312,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -0.04,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.424,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.424,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.48,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.416,
"after": 0.383,
"delta": -0.033,
"percent_delta": -0.0793,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.563,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.437,
"percent_delta": 2.5524,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.563,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.437,
"percent_delta": 2.5524,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.48,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.490 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.245 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.840 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.424 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.416 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.563 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.181 | 0.015 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.457 | -0.033 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.272 | 0.027 |
| predicted_H | 0.853 | 0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.042 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.143 | 0.023 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.483 | 0.059 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.493 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.440 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 0.567 | 0.004 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.181 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.457 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.272 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.849 | -0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.042 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.142 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | -0.023 |
| predicted_R | 0.480 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.489 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.428 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.568 | 0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.041
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.157 | 0.157 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.275 | 0.275 |
| H | 0.745 | -0.255 |
| HR | 0.093 | 0.093 |
| RBI | 0.408 | 0.408 |
| SO | 0.552 | -0.448 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.157 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.234 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.275 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.255 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.093 |
| OBP | 0.300 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.408 |
| SLG | 0.376 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.552 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.181 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.457 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | -0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.272 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.151 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.142 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.300 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.520 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.489 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.376 | -0.052 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.568 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.234 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.300 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.376 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 2.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3333 | 0.6875 | 0.2500 | 0.1250 | 0.1875 | 0.1250 | 0.1875 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 0.2727 | 0.3514 | 0.5455 | 0.2727 | 0.0606 | 0.1818 | 0.1212 | 0.1515 |
| season | 0.60 | 151 | - | 527.000 | 132.000 | 25.000 | 2.000 | 13.000 | 67.000 | 64.000 | 37.000 | 85.000 | 0.2505 | 0.3109 | 0.3795 | 0.2505 | 0.0247 | 0.1271 | 0.0702 | 0.1613 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4140 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2545 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3080 |
| predicted_H | 0.8690 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0420 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1740 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3226 |
| predicted_R | 0.5590 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5090 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4710 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5720 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1660 | 0.2000 | 0.1808 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0080 | 0.0108 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4900 | 3.4140 | 3.4569 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2470 | 0.2545 | 0.2503 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2450 | 0.3080 | 0.2724 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8400 | 0.8690 | 0.8526 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0420 | 0.0420 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 | 0.1740 | 0.1435 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3250 | 0.3226 | 0.3240 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4240 | 0.5590 | 0.4828 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4800 | 0.5090 | 0.4926 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4160 | 0.4710 | 0.4400 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5630 | 0.5720 | 0.5669 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 570 |
| Season rows before report date | 570 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 151 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 677587 |
| playerID | 677587 |
| playerName | Brayan Rocchio |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | CLE |
| teamID | 8 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.311 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.294 |
| sl_xba | 0.246 |
| sl_xslg | 0.35 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 30.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.533 | 1.000 | 0.467 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.467 | 0.000 | 2.533 | 3.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_H | 0.867 | 1.000 | 2.133 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.973 | 0.200 | 3.027 | 3.800 |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.667 | 0.000 | 3.333 | 5.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 5 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 3.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 3.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -2.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score |
| 8 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | predicted_SO: 3.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 3.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -2.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 9 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "682982",
"player_name": "Daniel Espino",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "CLE",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 4.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.3333,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
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"stats": {},
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"summary": {
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},
"weights": {
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"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
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}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.0,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.6667,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"before": 2.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.3333,
"percent_delta": -0.0769,
"direction": "deboost",
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{
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"direction": "boost",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
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"percent_delta": -0.6667,
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"projection_effect": "better",
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}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.0,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
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],
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{
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"direction": "boost",
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],
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}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 4.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| BF | 16.000 | - |
| ER | 3.000 | - |
| H | 3.000 | - |
| HR | 1.000 | - |
| IP | 4.000 | - |
| Pitches | 51.000 | - |
| R | 3.000 | - |
| SO | 5.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 9.0000 | 1.7500 | 1.0000 | 0.7500 | 1.0000 | 1.2500 | 0.5000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 11.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 5.000 | 16.000 | 2.000 | 3.2727 | 1.1818 | 0.3636 | 0.7273 | 0.4546 | 1.4546 | 0.1818 |
| season | 0.20 | 15 | 16.000 | 7.000 | 13.000 | 8.000 | 25.000 | 3.000 | 3.9375 | 1.3125 | 0.4375 | 0.8125 | 0.5000 | 1.5625 | 0.1875 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.5060 |
| predicted_ER | 1.6910 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.1651 |
| predicted_H | 2.6340 |
| predicted_HR | 0.6450 |
| predicted_IP | 3.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.2810 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4046 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.0000 | 1.5060 | 2.4090 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 4.0000 | 1.6910 | 3.0865 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.1651 | 5.1651 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 2.6340 | 2.2508 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.6450 | 0.8596 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 4.1000 | 3.0000 | 3.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 3.0000 | 3.2810 | 3.1112 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4046 | 1.4046 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 15 |
| Season rows before report date | 15 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 15 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 4.0 |
| H | 3 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 5 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 16 |
| Pitches | 51 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 12 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 5 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261003_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 682982 |
| playerID | 682982 |
| playerName | Daniel Espino |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CLE |
| teamID | 8 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 38.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.299 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.264 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 36.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 72.897165882 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.172357879 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.412 | 0.000 | -0.412 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.279 | 0.000 | 0.721 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.676 | 0.000 | 0.324 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.656 | 1.000 | 0.344 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.809 | 1.000 | 0.191 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 4 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_ER: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | predicted_ER: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "682120",
"player_name": "Tim Herrin",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "CLE",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
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"summary": {
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}
},
{
"index": 2,
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"predicted_H": 0.0,
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"predicted_IP": 1.0,
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},
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}
},
{
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{
"index": 7,
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},
{
"index": 8,
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"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
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],
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 4.000 | - |
| ER | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HR | 1.000 | - |
| IP | 1.000 | - |
| Pitches | 14.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 2.0769 | 1.6154 | 0.2308 | 1.1539 | 0.4615 | 0.9231 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 4.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 2.0000 | 1.5556 | 0.2222 | 1.1111 | 0.4444 | 1.2222 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 68 | 57.200 | 19.000 | 46.000 | 28.000 | 55.000 | 5.000 | 2.9653 | 1.2832 | 0.3295 | 0.7977 | 0.4855 | 0.9538 | 0.0867 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4370 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3260 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.9364 |
| predicted_H | 1.0430 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0560 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0040 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4800 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4370 | 0.2295 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3260 | 0.1712 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.9364 | 2.9364 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.0430 | 0.5476 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0560 | 0.0294 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 1.0040 | 1.4770 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4800 | 1.4800 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 68 |
| Season rows before report date | 68 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 68 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 14 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 14 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 8 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261003_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 682120 |
| playerID | 682120 |
| playerName | Tim Herrin |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CLE |
| teamID | 8 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.308 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.304 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.8 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.510758684 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.778213026 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.532 | 1.000 | -0.532 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.274 | 2.000 | -0.274 | -2.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.452 | 1.000 | 0.548 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.640 | 0.200 | 0.360 | 0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.258 | 0.000 | -0.258 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "681870",
"player_name": "Erik Sabrowski",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "CLE",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 4.000 | - |
| ER | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 1.000 | - |
| Pitches | 10.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.100 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 5.0625 | 1.3125 | 0.5625 | 0.5625 | 0.7500 | 1.5000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.100 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 12.000 | 0.000 | 3.8571 | 1.0714 | 0.4286 | 0.3214 | 0.7500 | 1.2857 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 60 | 50.200 | 16.000 | 26.000 | 29.000 | 78.000 | 3.000 | 2.8421 | 1.0855 | 0.3158 | 0.5132 | 0.5724 | 1.5395 | 0.0592 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.6060 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4820 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.3350 |
| predicted_H | 0.6360 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0560 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2720 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2419 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.6060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.4820 | 0.2474 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.3350 | 4.3350 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.6360 | 0.8131 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0560 | 0.0287 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.2720 | 0.6530 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2419 | 1.2419 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 62 |
| Season rows before report date | 62 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 60 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 10 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 11.57 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 1 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 11 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 4 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 1 |
| Pitching_decision | L, BS |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681870 |
| playerID | 681870 |
| playerName | Erik Sabrowski |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CLE |
| teamID | 8 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 37.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.258 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.251 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.988533696 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.73779337 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.452 | 0.000 | -0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.429 | 0.000 | -0.429 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.714 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.712 | 1.100 | 2.288 | 1.900 |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.833 | 1.000 | 2.167 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "542888",
"player_name": "Shawn Armstrong",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "CLE",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
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},
{
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},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
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"weights": {
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"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
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"stats": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 3.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
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},
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"predicted_ER": 0.0,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_SO": 3.0
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"total_change": {
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"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
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}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 10.000 | - |
| ER | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 3.000 | - |
| Pitches | 40.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 3.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 6.2308 | 0.9231 | 0.6923 | 0.4615 | 0.4615 | 0.4615 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.100 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 3.2400 | 1.0800 | 0.3600 | 0.7200 | 0.3600 | 0.8400 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 40 | 36.200 | 12.000 | 27.000 | 17.000 | 35.000 | 3.000 | 2.9455 | 1.2000 | 0.3273 | 0.7364 | 0.4636 | 0.9546 | 0.0818 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3790 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4720 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.5658 |
| predicted_H | 0.7040 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0640 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7330 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1655 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3790 | 0.1827 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.4720 | 0.2275 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.5658 | 4.5658 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.7040 | 0.8573 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0640 | 0.0308 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 3.0000 | 0.7330 | 1.9074 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1655 | 1.1655 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 42 |
| Season rows before report date | 42 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 40 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 3.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 10 |
| Pitches | 40 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 16 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 12 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 542888 |
| playerID | 542888 |
| playerName | Shawn Armstrong |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CLE |
| teamID | 8 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.313 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.315 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.298572708 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.400017604 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Sean Newcomb |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0519 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 3.1000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 4 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 3 |
| Season ERA | 2.9893 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1250 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.7780 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.5330 |
| Last Start IP | 1 |
{
"team": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0672,
"defense_index": 1.0099,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1281
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CLE",
"games": 162,
"wins": 85,
"losses": 77,
"win_pct": 0.5247,
"runs_scored": 678.0,
"runs_allowed": 667.0,
"run_differential": 11.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0679,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1852,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1173,
"offense_index": 0.9324,
"defense_index": 1.0902,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
"run_differential": 21.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1343
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0062,
"offense_edge": 0.0672,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0676,
"defense_strength": 0.0099,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0902,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0028,
"run_prevention": 0.9885,
"strikeout": 1.0052
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "656794",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656794",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 339.0,
"k_percent": 22.6,
"bb_percent": 9.1,
"woba": 0.285,
"xwoba": 0.317,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
"avg_best_speed": 77.7324,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.0135,
"whiff_percent": 23.9,
"swing_percent": 45.9
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0834,
"command_and_miss": -0.0279,
"regression_edge": -0.9143,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"barrel_edge": 0.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
"whiff_edge": -0.1857,
"bb_edge": 0.025,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"quality_score": -0.0519,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0044,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
"walk_factor": 0.998,
"homer_factor": 0.9958,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.032,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "656794",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0044,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.0044,
"adjusted": 3
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.998,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9958,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 0.9954,
"adjusted": 4
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 11.2,
"ER": 9,
"H": 14,
"BB": 5,
"SO": 13,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 6.942857142857142,
"WHIP": 1.6285714285714283,
"K9": 10.028571428571427,
"HR9": 1.5428571428571427,
"games_pitched": 9,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 1,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "656794",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 19.272,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.794,
"prior_weight": 0.206
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "656794",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 60,
"reference_playing_time": 5.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 7.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 29.0,
"Pitches": 123.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.8,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 5.8,
"Pitches": 24.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.4545,
"WHIP": 0.9545,
"ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
"H_per_IP": 0.68182,
"BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
"SO_per_IP": 1.22727,
"HR_per_IP": 0.13636
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 13.1,
"ER": 10.0,
"R": 10.0,
"H": 16.0,
"BB": 5.0,
"SO": 14.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 59.0,
"Pitches": 255.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 1.6,
"BB": 0.5,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 5.9,
"Pitches": 25.5
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 6.75,
"WHIP": 1.575,
"ER_per_IP": 0.75,
"H_per_IP": 1.2,
"BB_per_IP": 0.375,
"SO_per_IP": 1.05,
"HR_per_IP": 0.15
}
},
"season": {
"games": 60,
"totals": {
"IP": 93.1,
"ER": 31.0,
"R": 34.0,
"H": 72.0,
"BB": 33.0,
"SO": 87.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 380.0,
"Pitches": 1502.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.2,
"ER": 0.5167,
"R": 0.5667,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.55,
"SO": 1.45,
"HR": 0.0667,
"BF": 6.3333,
"Pitches": 25.0333
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.9893,
"WHIP": 1.125,
"ER_per_IP": 0.33214,
"H_per_IP": 0.77143,
"BB_per_IP": 0.35357,
"SO_per_IP": 0.93214,
"HR_per_IP": 0.04286
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 2.1,
"predicted_ER": 1.058,
"predicted_H": 2.057,
"predicted_BB": 0.766,
"predicted_SO": 2.44,
"predicted_HR": 0.291,
"predicted_ERA": 4.1802,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2387
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.437,
"form_weight": 0.563,
"form_reliability": 0.794,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 19.272,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.794,
"prior_weight": 0.206
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.2,
"form": 2.1,
"final": 3.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.058,
"final": 1.0327,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 2.057,
"final": 2.4691,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.766,
"final": 0.8683,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 7.0,
"form": 2.44,
"final": 4.4329,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.291,
"final": 0.1638,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.1802,
"final": 4.1802,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2387,
"final": 1.2387,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Hagen Smith |
| Role | Long Reliever |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.4803 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0374 |
| Avg Velo | 89.1961 |
| Avg Spin | 2396.9611 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 0.8710 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9032 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.6250 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.2000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0672,
"defense_index": 1.0099,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1281
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CLE",
"games": 162,
"wins": 85,
"losses": 77,
"win_pct": 0.5247,
"runs_scored": 678.0,
"runs_allowed": 667.0,
"run_differential": 11.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0679,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1852,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1173,
"offense_index": 0.9324,
"defense_index": 1.0902,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
"run_differential": 21.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1343
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0062,
"offense_edge": 0.0672,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0676,
"defense_strength": 0.0099,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0902,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0028,
"run_prevention": 0.9885,
"strikeout": 1.0052
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "696146",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "696146",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 90.0,
"k_percent": 37.3,
"bb_percent": 14.5,
"woba": 0.211,
"xwoba": 0.243,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 1.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
"avg_best_speed": 75.8598,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4182,
"whiff_percent": 36.2,
"swing_percent": 42.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.4885,
"command_and_miss": 1.2621,
"regression_edge": -0.9143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.9714,
"barrel_edge": 1.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.5571,
"whiff_edge": 1.5714,
"bb_edge": -1.325,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0374
},
"quality_score": 0.4803,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9592,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
"walk_factor": 1.0477,
"homer_factor": 0.921,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.032,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "696146",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9816,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9816,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0215,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9645,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.0303,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 18.0,
"ER": 3,
"H": 8,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 23,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 1.5,
"WHIP": 0.7777777777777778,
"K9": 11.5,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-29T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "696146",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 30,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 30,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
"release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 30,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
"release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.1961,
"release_spin_rate": 2396.9611,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0374,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.2672,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 6.401,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5614,
"prior_weight": 0.4386
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "696146",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 18,
"reference_playing_time": 1.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 7.1,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 8.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 30.0,
"Pitches": 127.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.8,
"SO": 1.6,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 6.0,
"Pitches": 25.4
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.0909,
"ER_per_IP": 0.13636,
"H_per_IP": 0.54545,
"BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
"SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 18.0,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 8.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 23.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 68.0,
"Pitches": 272.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.2,
"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 2.3,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 6.8,
"Pitches": 27.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.5,
"WHIP": 0.7778,
"ER_per_IP": 0.16667,
"H_per_IP": 0.44444,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
"SO_per_IP": 1.27778,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 18,
"totals": {
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"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 12.0,
"BB": 16.0,
"SO": 42.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 120.0,
"Pitches": 503.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.2,
"ER": 0.1667,
"R": 0.1667,
"H": 0.6667,
"BB": 0.8889,
"SO": 2.3333,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 6.6667,
"Pitches": 27.9444
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.871,
"WHIP": 0.9032,
"ER_per_IP": 0.09677,
"H_per_IP": 0.3871,
"BB_per_IP": 0.51613,
"SO_per_IP": 1.35484,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_ER": 0.436,
"predicted_H": 1.007,
"predicted_BB": 0.615,
"predicted_SO": 1.563,
"predicted_HR": 0.093,
"predicted_ERA": 2.7309,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1288
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5353,
"form_weight": 0.4647,
"form_reliability": 0.5614,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 6.401,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5614,
"prior_weight": 0.4386
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.1,
"form": 1.1,
"final": 1.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.436,
"final": 0.7379,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.007,
"final": 1.5386,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.615,
"final": 0.2858,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.563,
"final": 0.7263,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.093,
"final": 0.5785,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.7309,
"final": 2.7309,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1288,
"final": 1.1288,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jordan Hicks |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.4937 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2800 |
| Avg Velo | 94.9903 |
| Avg Spin | 2069.2367 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.8250 |
| Season WHIP | 1.5000 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9510 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.2000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0672,
"defense_index": 1.0099,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1281
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CLE",
"games": 162,
"wins": 85,
"losses": 77,
"win_pct": 0.5247,
"runs_scored": 678.0,
"runs_allowed": 667.0,
"run_differential": 11.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0679,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1852,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1173,
"offense_index": 0.9324,
"defense_index": 1.0902,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
"run_differential": 21.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1343
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0062,
"offense_edge": 0.0672,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0676,
"defense_strength": 0.0099,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0902,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0028,
"run_prevention": 0.9885,
"strikeout": 1.0052
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "663855",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663855",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 164.0,
"k_percent": 29.6,
"bb_percent": 15.3,
"woba": 0.309,
"xwoba": 0.262,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 1.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.1,
"avg_best_speed": 78.2319,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4981,
"whiff_percent": 28.2,
"swing_percent": 44.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9121,
"command_and_miss": 0.3271,
"regression_edge": 1.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4286,
"barrel_edge": 1.2222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6857,
"whiff_edge": 0.4286,
"bb_edge": -1.525,
"pitch_design_score": 0.28
},
"quality_score": 0.4937,
"sample_weight": 0.656,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.958,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0394,
"walk_factor": 1.08,
"homer_factor": 0.8898,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.047,
"regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "663855",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9724,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9724,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0525,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9277,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0258,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 6,
"H": 13,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 14,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 5.4,
"WHIP": 1.7,
"K9": 12.6,
"HR9": 1.8,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663855",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 19,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.99032641703893,
"release_spin_rate": 2069.2367121559296,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.99032641703893,
"release_spin_rate": 2069.2367121559296,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 94.9903,
"release_spin_rate": 2069.2367,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.28,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.26,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6229,
"prior_weight": 0.3771
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "663855",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 42,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 4.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 27.0,
"Pitches": 103.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.8,
"R": 0.8,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.8,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 5.4,
"Pitches": 20.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 6.0,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.66667,
"H_per_IP": 1.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.5,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.16667
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 6.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 13.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 14.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 47.0,
"Pitches": 183.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 1.3,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.7,
"Pitches": 18.3
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.4,
"WHIP": 1.7,
"ER_per_IP": 0.6,
"H_per_IP": 1.3,
"BB_per_IP": 0.4,
"SO_per_IP": 1.4,
"HR_per_IP": 0.2
}
},
"season": {
"games": 42,
"totals": {
"IP": 40.0,
"ER": 17.0,
"R": 17.0,
"H": 35.0,
"BB": 25.0,
"SO": 49.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 178.0,
"Pitches": 695.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4048,
"R": 0.4048,
"H": 0.8333,
"BB": 0.5952,
"SO": 1.1667,
"HR": 0.0714,
"BF": 4.2381,
"Pitches": 16.5476
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.825,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.425,
"H_per_IP": 0.875,
"BB_per_IP": 0.625,
"SO_per_IP": 1.225,
"HR_per_IP": 0.075
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.617,
"predicted_H": 1.142,
"predicted_BB": 0.491,
"predicted_SO": 1.346,
"predicted_HR": 0.17,
"predicted_ERA": 5.0796,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.4929
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5093,
"form_weight": 0.4907,
"form_reliability": 0.6229,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.26,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6229,
"prior_weight": 0.3771
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 0.617,
"final": 1.8307,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 1.142,
"final": 2.5977,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.491,
"final": 0.7502,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.346,
"final": 1.1698,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.17,
"final": 0.5927,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 5.0796,
"final": 5.0796,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.4929,
"final": 1.4929,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Bryan Hudson |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.4091 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0787 |
| Avg Velo | 88.4591 |
| Avg Spin | 2154.7309 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 3.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 2.6173 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1633 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9600 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0672,
"defense_index": 1.0099,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1281
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CLE",
"games": 162,
"wins": 85,
"losses": 77,
"win_pct": 0.5247,
"runs_scored": 678.0,
"runs_allowed": 667.0,
"run_differential": 11.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0679,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1852,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1173,
"offense_index": 0.9324,
"defense_index": 1.0902,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
"run_differential": 21.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1343
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0062,
"offense_edge": 0.0672,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0676,
"defense_strength": 0.0099,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0902,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0028,
"run_prevention": 0.9885,
"strikeout": 1.0052
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "663542",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663542",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 256.0,
"k_percent": 20.9,
"bb_percent": 6.4,
"woba": 0.304,
"xwoba": 0.277,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
"avg_best_speed": 77.039,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.3019,
"whiff_percent": 23.1,
"swing_percent": 47.9
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6236,
"command_and_miss": -0.0421,
"regression_edge": 0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0,
"barrel_edge": 0.7111,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
"whiff_edge": -0.3,
"bb_edge": 0.7,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0787
},
"quality_score": 0.4091,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9652,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9811,
"walk_factor": 0.944,
"homer_factor": 0.908,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.027,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "663542",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9652,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9652,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.944,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.908,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9811,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.1,
"ER": 2,
"H": 11,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 7,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 1.741935483870968,
"WHIP": 1.0645161290322582,
"K9": 6.096774193548388,
"HR9": 0.870967741935484,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663542",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 13,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.45909611346684,
"release_spin_rate": 2154.7309004103313,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.45909611346684,
"release_spin_rate": 2154.7309004103313,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.4591,
"release_spin_rate": 2154.7309,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0787,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.562,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.491,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7296,
"prior_weight": 0.2704
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "663542",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 66,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 2.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 16.0,
"Pitches": 58.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.4,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 3.2,
"Pitches": 11.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.1538,
"WHIP": 1.3846,
"ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
"H_per_IP": 1.38462,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 0.46154,
"HR_per_IP": 0.23077
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 11.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 38.0,
"Pitches": 129.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 1.1,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.7,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 12.9
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.7419,
"WHIP": 1.0645,
"ER_per_IP": 0.19355,
"H_per_IP": 1.06452,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 0.67742,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09677
}
},
"season": {
"games": 66,
"totals": {
"IP": 65.1,
"ER": 19.0,
"R": 21.0,
"H": 59.0,
"BB": 17.0,
"SO": 59.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 266.0,
"Pitches": 1003.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2879,
"R": 0.3182,
"H": 0.8939,
"BB": 0.2576,
"SO": 0.8939,
"HR": 0.0758,
"BF": 4.0303,
"Pitches": 15.197
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.6173,
"WHIP": 1.1633,
"ER_per_IP": 0.29082,
"H_per_IP": 0.90306,
"BB_per_IP": 0.2602,
"SO_per_IP": 0.90306,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07653
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.382,
"predicted_H": 1.125,
"predicted_BB": 0.141,
"predicted_SO": 0.709,
"predicted_HR": 0.152,
"predicted_ERA": 3.441,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2654
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4642,
"form_weight": 0.5358,
"form_reliability": 0.7296,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.491,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7296,
"prior_weight": 0.2704
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.382,
"final": 0.2047,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.125,
"final": 0.6027,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.141,
"final": 0.0755,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.709,
"final": 0.3799,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.152,
"final": 0.0814,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.441,
"final": 3.441,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2654,
"final": 1.2654,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.188 | 0.000 | -0.188 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.028 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.034 | 0.000 | -0.034 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.437 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.632 | 1.000 | -0.632 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.272 | 0.000 | -0.272 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.310 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.362 | 0.000 | 0.638 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.056 | 0.000 | -0.056 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.951 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.987 | 0.000 | -0.987 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.056 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.066 | 0.000 | -0.066 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.374 | 0.000 | -0.124 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.585 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.630 | 0.000 | 0.370 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.352 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.386 | 0.000 | -0.386 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.395 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.396 | 0.000 | -0.396 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.585 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.640 | 0.000 | -0.640 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3100 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6900, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9510 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9510, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3360 -> 0.3614 (boost 0.0254, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3614 -> 0.3434 (deboost -0.0180, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.4139 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5861, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3695 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3695, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.014 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5808 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4192, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4039 (boost 0.4039, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7511 (deboost -0.2489, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 7 | predicted_2B: 0.1856 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8144, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4039 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4039, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3620 -> 0.3820 (boost 0.0200, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3300 -> 0.3150 (deboost -0.0150, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
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"role": "batter",
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"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.242,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.315,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.373,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.252,
"after": 0.242,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.0397,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.315,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -0.0455,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.373,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -0.0236,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.315,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -0.0455,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.183,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.183,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.437,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.437,
"percent_delta": -0.1271,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.242,
"delta": -0.035,
"percent_delta": -0.1264,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.69,
"percent_delta": 2.2258,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.951,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.951,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.261,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.261,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.056,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.056,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.336,
"after": 0.315,
"delta": -0.021,
"percent_delta": -0.0625,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.585,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.415,
"percent_delta": 0.7094,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.352,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.395,
"after": 0.373,
"delta": -0.022,
"percent_delta": -0.0557,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.585,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.585,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.69,
"percent_delta": 2.2258,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.951,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.951,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.028 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.437 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.951 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.056 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.585 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.352 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.395 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.585 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.213 | 0.030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.414 | -0.023 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.289 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.290 | -0.020 |
| predicted_H | 0.985 | 0.034 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.261 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.048 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.361 | 0.025 |
| predicted_R | 0.584 | -0.001 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.372 | 0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.406 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.543 | -0.042 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.213 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.414 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.287 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.291 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.981 | -0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.261 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.048 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.343 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 0.581 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.369 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.406 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.542 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.014
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.186 | 0.186 |
| 3B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.390 | 0.390 |
| H | 0.923 | -0.077 |
| HR | 0.087 | 0.087 |
| RBI | 0.404 | 0.404 |
| SO | 0.751 | -0.249 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.814 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.239 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.390 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.077 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.087 |
| OBP | 0.315 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.404 |
| SLG | 0.362 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.249 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 1.000 | 0.787 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.023 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.586 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | -0.048 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.291 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.019 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.048 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | -0.028 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.419 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.369 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.362 | -0.044 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.458 |
KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.252 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.330 | 0.015 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.382 | 0.020 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.3333 | 0.4444 | 0.4667 | 0.3333 | 0.0000 | 0.1333 | 0.0667 | 0.1333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 13.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.3714 | 0.4390 | 0.4571 | 0.3714 | 0.0000 | 0.1429 | 0.0571 | 0.0571 |
| season | 0.60 | 142 | - | 488.000 | 135.000 | 26.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 50.000 | 83.000 | 44.000 | 83.000 | 0.2766 | 0.3706 | 0.3955 | 0.2766 | 0.0164 | 0.1025 | 0.0902 | 0.1701 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2510 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3840 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3039 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2650 |
| predicted_H | 1.0290 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.2610 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0380 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3943 |
| predicted_R | 0.5830 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3970 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4213 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4890 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1830 | 0.2510 | 0.2126 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0280 | 0.0170 | 0.0232 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4370 | 3.3840 | 3.4139 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2770 | 0.3039 | 0.2887 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3100 | 0.2650 | 0.2904 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9510 | 1.0290 | 0.9849 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.2610 | 0.2610 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0560 | 0.0380 | 0.0482 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3360 | 0.3943 | 0.3614 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5850 | 0.5830 | 0.5841 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3520 | 0.3970 | 0.3716 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3950 | 0.4213 | 0.4064 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5850 | 0.4890 | 0.5432 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 533 |
| Season rows before report date | 533 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 142 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-DH |
| gameID | 20261003_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 803011 |
| note | Flied out for Pham in the 9th. |
| playerID | 803011 |
| playerName | Sam Antonacci |
| pos | SS |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.345 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.348 |
| sl_xba | 0.284 |
| sl_xslg | 0.399 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 9.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 14.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.191 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.209 | 0.000 | 0.791 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.710 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.810 | 2.000 | 0.190 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.252 | 0.500 | -0.002 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.648 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.643 | 2.000 | -0.643 | -2.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.930 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.961 | 1.000 | 0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.216 | 0.000 | -0.216 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.412 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.364 | 0.750 | -0.114 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.673 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.710 | 1.000 | 0.290 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.587 | 0.000 | -0.587 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.481 | 0.500 | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.796 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.812 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1910 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8090, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.6480 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6480, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | predicted_BB: 0.6480 -> 0.7957 (boost 0.1477, better) | predicted_AB: 3.7100 -> 3.6175 (deboost -0.0925, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3795 -> 0.3894 (boost 0.0099, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.4007 -> 0.3743 (deboost -0.0264, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.6175 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.3825, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4169 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4169, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.7120 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2880, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5195 (boost 0.5195, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.6031 (deboost -0.3969, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.5195 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4805, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1771 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1771, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4130 -> 0.4360 (boost 0.0230, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4360 -> 0.4420 (boost 0.0060, better) | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "678246",
"player_name": "Miguel Vargas",
"position": "3B",
"team": "CHW",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.238,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.356,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.442,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.351,
"after": 0.356,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0142,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.436,
"after": 0.442,
"delta": 0.006,
"percent_delta": 0.0138,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.436,
"after": 0.442,
"delta": 0.006,
"percent_delta": 0.0138,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.191,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.809,
"percent_delta": 4.2356,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.71,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.29,
"percent_delta": 0.0782,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.238,
"delta": -0.039,
"percent_delta": -0.1408,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.648,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.648,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.93,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.07,
"percent_delta": 0.0753,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.412,
"after": 0.356,
"delta": -0.056,
"percent_delta": -0.1359,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.673,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.327,
"percent_delta": 0.4859,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.41,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.442,
"delta": 0.041,
"percent_delta": 0.1022,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.796,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.204,
"percent_delta": 0.2563,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.191,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.809,
"percent_delta": 4.2356,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.648,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.648,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.191 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.710 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.648 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.930 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.412 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.673 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.796 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | -0.036 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.618 | -0.092 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.252 | -0.025 |
| predicted_BB | 0.796 | 0.148 |
| predicted_H | 0.858 | -0.072 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.025 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | -0.011 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.401 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.716 | 0.043 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.419 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.380 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SO | 0.781 | -0.015 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.618 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | -0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.798 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.855 | -0.003 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.129 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.374 | -0.026 |
| predicted_R | 0.712 | -0.004 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.417 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.389 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.779 | -0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.165 | 0.165 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.603 | -0.397 |
| H | 0.824 | -0.176 |
| HR | 0.177 | 0.177 |
| RBI | 0.519 | 0.519 |
| SO | 0.881 | -0.119 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.165 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.222 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.397 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.176 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.177 |
| OBP | 0.336 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.481 |
| SLG | 0.413 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.119 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.382 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.222 | -0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.202 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.145 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.129 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | -0.038 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.288 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.583 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.413 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.221 |
KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.234 | 0.012 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.351 | 0.015 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.436 | 0.023 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 0.1333 | 0.4348 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.5333 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 13.000 | 8.000 | 0.2121 | 0.4255 | 0.2121 | 0.2121 | 0.0000 | 0.1515 | 0.3939 | 0.2424 |
| season | 0.60 | 162 | - | 601.000 | 149.000 | 31.000 | 1.000 | 33.000 | 93.000 | 109.000 | 105.000 | 129.000 | 0.2479 | 0.3625 | 0.4676 | 0.2479 | 0.0549 | 0.1547 | 0.1747 | 0.2146 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1100 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4990 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2190 |
| predicted_BB | 0.9850 |
| predicted_H | 0.7660 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0250 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3862 |
| predicted_R | 0.7710 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4310 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3519 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7610 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1910 | 0.1100 | 0.1555 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7100 | 3.4990 | 3.6175 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2770 | 0.2190 | 0.2516 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.6480 | 0.9850 | 0.7957 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9300 | 0.7660 | 0.8581 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0250 | 0.0250 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.1160 | 0.1295 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4120 | 0.3862 | 0.4007 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6730 | 0.7710 | 0.7160 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4100 | 0.4310 | 0.4192 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4010 | 0.3519 | 0.3795 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7960 | 0.7610 | 0.7807 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 675 |
| Season rows before report date | 675 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 162 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 678246 |
| playerID | 678246 |
| playerName | Miguel Vargas |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 14.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.363 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.378 |
| sl_xba | 0.263 |
| sl_xslg | 0.496 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 20.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.122 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.132 | 0.000 | 0.868 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.588 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.685 | 4.000 | 0.315 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_AVG | 0.211 | 0.250 | 0.289 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.710 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.778 | 0.000 | -0.778 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.025 | 0.000 | -0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.748 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_H | 0.778 | 1.000 | 1.222 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.275 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.292 | 0.000 | -0.292 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.339 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.354 | 0.250 | 0.146 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.649 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.710 | 0.000 | -0.710 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.618 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.623 | 1.000 | 1.377 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.477 | 0.750 | 0.750 | Hitting_SLG | 0.489 | 0.250 | 0.261 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 1.557 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.578 | 1.000 | -1.578 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.6180 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3820, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.5570 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.5570, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.5880 -> 3.6607 (boost 0.0727, better) | predicted_BB: 0.7100 -> 0.6299 (deboost -0.0801, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | predicted_SO: 1.5622 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.4378, worse) | predicted_HR: 0.2759 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2759, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.075 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6661 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3339, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 0.2324 (boost 0.2324, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5531 (deboost -0.4469, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | predicted_HR: 0.2324 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7676, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1540 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1540, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4340 -> 0.4580 (boost 0.0240, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -2.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3510 -> 0.3250 (deboost -0.0260, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "808959",
"player_name": "Munetaka Murakami",
"position": "1B",
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.209,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.325,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.443,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.215,
"after": 0.209,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.0279,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.351,
"after": 0.325,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -0.0741,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.458,
"after": 0.443,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -0.0328,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.351,
"after": 0.325,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -0.0741,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.122,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.878,
"percent_delta": 7.1967,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.588,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.412,
"percent_delta": 0.1148,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.71,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.71,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.748,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.252,
"percent_delta": 1.6738,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.275,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.275,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.339,
"after": 0.325,
"delta": -0.014,
"percent_delta": -0.0413,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.649,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.649,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.618,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.382,
"percent_delta": 2.2362,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.477,
"after": 0.443,
"delta": -0.034,
"percent_delta": -0.0713,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.557,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.557,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.618,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.382,
"percent_delta": 2.2362,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.557,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.557,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.122 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.588 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.710 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.748 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.275 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.339 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.649 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.618 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.477 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.557 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | 0.014 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.661 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.630 | -0.080 |
| predicted_H | 0.800 | 0.052 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.047 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.276 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.670 | 0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.668 | 0.050 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.485 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 1.566 | 0.009 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.661 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.218 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.631 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.797 | -0.003 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.047 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.276 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.666 | -0.004 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.664 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.484 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.562 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.075
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.154 | 0.154 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.715 | -0.285 |
| H | 0.769 | -0.231 |
| HR | 0.232 | 0.232 |
| RBI | 0.553 | -0.447 |
| SO | 1.652 | -0.348 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.154 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.204 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.285 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.231 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.768 |
| OBP | 0.336 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.447 |
| SLG | 0.434 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.348 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.339 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.204 | -0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.369 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.203 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.724 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.334 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.336 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.434 | -0.050 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 0.438 |
KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.215 | 0.011 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.351 | 0.015 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.458 | 0.024 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -2.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2727 | 0.4500 | 0.2500 | 0.0500 | 0.2000 | 0.0500 | 0.4500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 11.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 16.000 | 0.2750 | 0.3333 | 0.6250 | 0.2750 | 0.1000 | 0.2750 | 0.0750 | 0.4000 |
| season | 0.60 | 131 | - | 470.000 | 98.000 | 16.000 | 1.000 | 36.000 | 81.000 | 85.000 | 93.000 | 204.000 | 0.2085 | 0.3450 | 0.4766 | 0.2085 | 0.0766 | 0.1723 | 0.1979 | 0.4340 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1530 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0050 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7550 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2310 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5260 |
| predicted_H | 0.8670 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0470 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2780 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3271 |
| predicted_R | 0.6970 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7320 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4963 |
| predicted_SO | 1.5780 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1220 | 0.1530 | 0.1355 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 | 0.0050 | 0.0067 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5880 | 3.7550 | 3.6607 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2090 | 0.2310 | 0.2186 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.7100 | 0.5260 | 0.6299 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7480 | 0.8670 | 0.7998 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0470 | 0.0470 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2750 | 0.2780 | 0.2763 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3390 | 0.3271 | 0.3338 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6490 | 0.6970 | 0.6699 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6180 | 0.7320 | 0.6676 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4770 | 0.4963 | 0.4854 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.5570 | 1.5780 | 1.5661 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 517 |
| Season rows before report date | 517 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 131 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 808959 |
| playerID | 808959 |
| playerName | Munetaka Murakami |
| pos | IF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 35.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 16.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.356 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.351 |
| sl_xba | 0.204 |
| sl_xslg | 0.469 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 20.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 56.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 93.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 42.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.071 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.126 | 0.000 | -0.126 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.530 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.529 | 4.000 | 0.471 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.242 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.207 | 0.250 | -0.207 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.429 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.555 | 0.000 | -0.555 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.850 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.731 | 1.000 | -0.731 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.168 | 0.000 | -0.168 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.330 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.325 | 0.250 | -0.325 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.548 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.605 | 1.000 | -0.605 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.857 | 0.000 | -0.857 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.349 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.386 | 0.250 | -0.386 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.381 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.538 | 2.000 | 0.462 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.3810 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.6190, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3305 -> 0.3208 (deboost -0.0097, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | predicted_SO: 1.3767 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.6233, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4130 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4130, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.028 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5702 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4298, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4631 (boost 0.4631, better) | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 1.4962 (deboost -0.5038, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.4631 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5369, better) | predicted_SO: 1.4962 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.4962, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3760 -> 0.3960 (boost 0.0200, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3290 -> 0.3170 (deboost -0.0120, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "691019",
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"predicted_AVG": 0.221,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.317,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.384,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.221,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -0.0474,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.329,
"after": 0.317,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.0365,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.384,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.0303,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.329,
"after": 0.317,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.0365,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.071,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.071,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.53,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.47,
"percent_delta": 0.1331,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.242,
"after": 0.221,
"delta": -0.021,
"percent_delta": -0.0868,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.429,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.85,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.09,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.317,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.548,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.548,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.56,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.56,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.349,
"after": 0.384,
"delta": 0.035,
"percent_delta": 0.1003,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.381,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.619,
"percent_delta": 0.4482,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.381,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.619,
"percent_delta": 0.4482,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.85,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.071 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.530 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.242 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.429 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.850 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.330 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.548 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.349 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.381 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.069 | -0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.545 | 0.015 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.412 | -0.017 |
| predicted_H | 0.860 | 0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.101 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.331 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.573 | 0.025 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.564 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.350 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.380 | -0.001 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.069 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.545 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.242 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.413 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.857 | -0.003 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.090 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.101 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.321 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.570 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.561 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.347 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.377 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.028
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.153 | 0.153 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.463 | 0.463 |
| H | 0.790 | -0.210 |
| HR | 0.129 | 0.129 |
| RBI | 0.539 | -0.461 |
| SO | 1.496 | -0.504 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.153 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.220 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.537 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.210 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.129 |
| OBP | 0.315 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.461 |
| SLG | 0.376 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.496 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.069 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.455 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | -0.022 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.587 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.143 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.101 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.430 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.439 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.376 | 0.029 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.377 |
KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.232 | 0.012 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.329 | 0.014 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.396 | 0.020 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.2857 | 0.3182 | 0.2857 | 0.2857 | 0.0000 | 0.0476 | 0.0476 | 0.4286 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 14.000 | 0.2973 | 0.4000 | 0.3784 | 0.2973 | 0.0270 | 0.1892 | 0.1351 | 0.3784 |
| season | 0.60 | 42 | - | 136.000 | 29.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 27.000 | 23.000 | 18.000 | 58.000 | 0.2132 | 0.3208 | 0.3456 | 0.2132 | 0.0368 | 0.1985 | 0.1323 | 0.4265 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0660 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5670 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2451 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3870 |
| predicted_H | 0.8740 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0900 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1020 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3312 |
| predicted_R | 0.6110 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5710 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3508 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3790 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0710 | 0.0660 | 0.0690 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5300 | 3.5670 | 3.5449 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2420 | 0.2451 | 0.2433 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4290 | 0.3870 | 0.4120 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8500 | 0.8740 | 0.8597 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1000 | 0.1020 | 0.1008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3300 | 0.3312 | 0.3305 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5480 | 0.6110 | 0.5734 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5600 | 0.5710 | 0.5644 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3490 | 0.3508 | 0.3497 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.3810 | 1.3790 | 1.3802 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 119 |
| Season rows before report date | 119 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 42 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 691019 |
| playerID | 691019 |
| playerName | Kyle Teel |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 35.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.317 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.321 |
| sl_xba | 0.211 |
| sl_xslg | 0.375 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 41.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.197 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.204 | 0.000 | -0.204 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.090 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.772 | 4.000 | 0.228 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.279 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.279 | 0.500 | -0.029 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.389 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.434 | 0.000 | -0.434 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.010 | 0.000 | -0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.140 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.051 | 2.000 | -0.051 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.114 | 0.000 | -0.114 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.368 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.356 | 0.500 | -0.106 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.586 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.625 | 0.000 | -0.625 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.710 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.434 | 1.000 | -0.434 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.461 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.423 | 0.500 | -0.173 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.917 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.938 | 1.000 | 0.062 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 11 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.9170 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0830, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.7100 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4610 -> 0.4888 (boost 0.0278, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0900 -> 3.8797 (deboost -0.2103, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3778 -> 0.3578 (deboost -0.0200, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.7025 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2975, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3545 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3545, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.040 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5749 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4251, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3965 (boost 0.3965, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.4302 (deboost -0.5698, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 7 | predicted_H: 0.8877 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1123, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4302 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4302, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3880 -> 0.4100 (boost 0.0220, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4100 -> 0.3920 (deboost -0.0180, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.392,
"delta": -0.018,
"percent_delta": -0.0439,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.197,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.197,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.09,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.09,
"percent_delta": -0.022,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.279,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.029,
"percent_delta": -0.1039,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.389,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.389,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.14,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -0.1228,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.16,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.368,
"after": 0.332,
"delta": -0.036,
"percent_delta": -0.0978,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.586,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.586,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.71,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.71,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.461,
"after": 0.392,
"delta": -0.069,
"percent_delta": -0.1497,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.917,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.083,
"percent_delta": 0.0905,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 11,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.917,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.083,
"percent_delta": 0.0905,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.71,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.71,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.197 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.090 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.279 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.389 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.140 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.368 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.586 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.710 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.461 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.917 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.197 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.880 | -0.210 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.302 | 0.023 |
| predicted_BB | 0.354 | -0.035 |
| predicted_H | 1.165 | 0.025 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.042 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.163 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.378 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.578 | -0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.707 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.489 | 0.028 |
| predicted_SO | 0.878 | -0.039 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.197 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.880 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.299 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.354 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.161 | -0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.042 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.162 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.358 | -0.020 |
| predicted_R | 0.575 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.703 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.476 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.876 | -0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.040
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.168 | 0.168 |
| 3B | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| BB | 0.397 | 0.397 |
| H | 0.888 | -0.112 |
| HR | 0.113 | 0.113 |
| RBI | 0.430 | -0.570 |
| SO | 1.042 | 0.042 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.168 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.245 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.397 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.112 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.113 |
| OBP | 0.325 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.430 |
| SLG | 0.388 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.042 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.197 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.120 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | -0.054 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.354 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.161 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.162 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | -0.033 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.425 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.703 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.388 | -0.088 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.124 |
KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.259 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.341 | 0.016 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.410 | 0.022 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.4118 | 0.4444 | 0.6471 | 0.4118 | 0.0588 | 0.2941 | 0.0588 | 0.1765 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 15.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 12.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 0.4286 | 0.4737 | 0.7429 | 0.4286 | 0.0857 | 0.3429 | 0.0571 | 0.2286 |
| season | 0.60 | 157 | - | 581.000 | 162.000 | 31.000 | 0.000 | 17.000 | 68.000 | 92.000 | 61.000 | 144.000 | 0.2788 | 0.3512 | 0.4200 | 0.2788 | 0.0293 | 0.1170 | 0.1050 | 0.2478 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1980 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6090 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3315 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3080 |
| predicted_H | 1.1970 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0420 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1660 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3904 |
| predicted_R | 0.5680 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5246 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8280 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1970 | 0.1980 | 0.1974 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.0900 | 3.6090 | 3.8797 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2790 | 0.3315 | 0.3019 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3890 | 0.3080 | 0.3536 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1400 | 1.1970 | 1.1649 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0420 | 0.0420 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.1660 | 0.1626 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3680 | 0.3904 | 0.3778 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5860 | 0.5680 | 0.5781 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7100 | 0.7020 | 0.7065 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4610 | 0.5246 | 0.4888 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9170 | 0.8280 | 0.8781 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 624 |
| Season rows before report date | 624 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 157 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 805367 |
| playerID | 805367 |
| playerName | Chase Meidroth |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.339 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.301 |
| sl_xba | 0.239 |
| sl_xslg | 0.348 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 8.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.207 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.252 | 0.000 | -0.252 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.973 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.206 | 2.000 | 0.794 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.289 | 0.500 | -0.289 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.247 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.272 | 0.000 | -0.272 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.927 | 1.000 | -0.927 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.106 | 0.000 | -0.106 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.356 | 0.500 | -0.356 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.413 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.482 | 0.000 | -0.482 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.484 | 0.000 | -0.484 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.484 | 0.500 | -0.484 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.613 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.605 | 0.000 | 1.395 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.6130 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3870, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.4130 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4130, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.4000 -> 0.5504 (boost 0.1504, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3820 -> 0.3711 (deboost -0.0109, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3711 -> 0.3028 (deboost -0.0683, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.5484 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4516, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.2514 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2514, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.015 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3939 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3939, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4297 (boost 0.4297, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8188 (deboost -0.1812, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.8188 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1812, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4297 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4297, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4150 -> 0.3880 (deboost -0.0270, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "671976",
"player_name": "Tristan Peters",
"position": "CF",
"team": "CHW",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.207,
"predicted_3B": 0.027,
"predicted_AB": 2.973,
"predicted_AVG": 0.224,
"predicted_BB": 0.247,
"predicted_H": 0.4,
"predicted_HR": 0.04,
"predicted_OBP": 0.303,
"predicted_R": 0.413,
"predicted_RBI": 0.19,
"predicted_SLG": 0.382,
"predicted_SO": 0.613
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.171,
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"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.415,
"after": 0.388,
"delta": -0.027,
"percent_delta": -0.0651,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.207,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.207,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.973,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.027,
"percent_delta": 0.3454,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.247,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.247,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.059,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.059,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.413,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.388,
"delta": 0.006,
"percent_delta": 0.0157,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.613,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.387,
"percent_delta": 2.2626,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.613,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.387,
"percent_delta": 2.2626,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.413,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.207 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.973 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.247 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.413 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.613 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | -0.036 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 2.965 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.240 | -0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.550 | 0.150 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.059 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.045 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.396 | -0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.253 | 0.063 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.371 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.617 | 0.004 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.965 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.185 | -0.051 |
| predicted_BB | 0.240 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.548 | -0.002 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.059 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.045 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.246 | -0.064 |
| predicted_R | 0.394 | -0.002 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.251 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.303 | -0.068 |
| predicted_SO | 0.615 | -0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.015
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.185 | 0.185 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.336 | 0.336 |
| H | 0.819 | -0.181 |
| HR | 0.105 | 0.105 |
| RBI | 0.430 | 0.430 |
| SO | 0.822 | -0.178 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.185 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.239 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.336 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.181 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.105 |
| OBP | 0.313 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.430 |
| SLG | 0.393 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.178 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.171 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.035 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | 0.054 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.240 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.452 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.045 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | 0.067 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.394 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.251 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.393 | 0.090 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.385 |
KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.252 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.328 | 0.015 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.415 | 0.022 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.2857 | 0.3333 | 0.2857 | 0.2857 | 0.0000 | 0.0714 | 0.0714 | 0.2143 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 28.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.1786 | 0.2581 | 0.1786 | 0.1786 | 0.0000 | 0.1071 | 0.0714 | 0.2143 |
| season | 0.60 | 150 | - | 446.000 | 119.000 | 31.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 | 57.000 | 62.000 | 37.000 | 92.000 | 0.2668 | 0.3354 | 0.4350 | 0.2668 | 0.0269 | 0.1278 | 0.0830 | 0.2063 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1240 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 |
| predicted_AB | 2.9550 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2527 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2300 |
| predicted_H | 0.7470 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0590 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0510 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3187 |
| predicted_R | 0.3740 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3350 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3569 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6210 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2070 | 0.1240 | 0.1710 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0270 | 0.0160 | 0.0222 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.9730 | 2.9550 | 2.9652 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2240 | 0.2527 | 0.2364 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2470 | 0.2300 | 0.2396 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.4000 | 0.7470 | 0.5504 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0590 | 0.0590 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 | 0.0510 | 0.0448 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3030 | 0.3187 | 0.3098 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4130 | 0.3740 | 0.3961 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1900 | 0.3350 | 0.2528 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3820 | 0.3569 | 0.3711 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6130 | 0.6210 | 0.6165 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 481 |
| Season rows before report date | 481 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 150 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-LF |
| gameID | 20261003_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 671976 |
| note | Singled for Grichuk in the 6th. |
| playerID | 671976 |
| playerName | Tristan Peters |
| pos | CF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.34 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.314 |
| sl_xba | 0.248 |
| sl_xslg | 0.384 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.177 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.163 | 1.000 | -0.163 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.031 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.040 | 0.000 | -0.040 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.521 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.645 | 4.000 | 0.355 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.216 | 0.250 | -0.216 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.396 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.481 | 0.000 | -0.481 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.037 | 0.000 | -0.037 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.792 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.788 | 1.000 | -0.788 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.062 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.074 | 0.000 | -0.074 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.312 | 0.250 | -0.312 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.553 | 1.000 | -0.553 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.417 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.484 | 2.000 | -0.484 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.346 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.344 | 0.500 | -0.344 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.813 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.831 | 2.000 | 1.169 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8130 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1870, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7920 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7920, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.8130 -> 0.8657 (boost 0.0527, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.3960 -> 0.3309 (deboost -0.0651, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.8266 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1734, better) | predicted_AB: 3.5583 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.5583, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.015 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5058 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4942, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4215 (boost 0.4215, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7577 (deboost -0.2423, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 10 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 7 | predicted_BB: 0.4215 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5785, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3260 -> 0.3120 (deboost -0.0140, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "695731",
"player_name": "Braden Montgomery",
"position": "RF",
"team": "CHW",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.177,
"predicted_3B": 0.031,
"predicted_AB": 3.521,
"predicted_AVG": 0.225,
"predicted_BB": 0.396,
"predicted_H": 0.792,
"predicted_HR": 0.062,
"predicted_OBP": 0.303,
"predicted_R": 0.5,
"predicted_RBI": 0.417,
"predicted_SLG": 0.346,
"predicted_SO": 0.813
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1809,
"predicted_3B": 0.0259,
"predicted_AB": 3.5583,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2331,
"predicted_BB": 0.3309,
"predicted_H": 0.8297,
"predicted_HBP": 0.02,
"predicted_HR": 0.0547,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2993,
"predicted_R": 0.5086,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4003,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3448,
"predicted_SO": 0.8657
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.417,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.417,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.346,
"after": 0.368,
"delta": 0.022,
"percent_delta": 0.0636,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.813,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.187,
"percent_delta": 1.46,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.813,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.187,
"percent_delta": 1.46,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.792,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.792,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.177 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.031 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.521 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.396 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.792 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.062 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.417 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.346 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.813 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.181 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.558 | 0.037 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.331 | -0.065 |
| predicted_H | 0.830 | 0.038 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.055 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.509 | 0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.345 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.866 | 0.053 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.181 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.558 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.332 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.827 | -0.003 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.055 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.298 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.506 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.398 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.344 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.864 | -0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.015
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.162 | 0.162 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.421 | 0.421 |
| H | 0.758 | -0.242 |
| HR | 0.087 | 0.087 |
| RBI | 0.407 | 0.407 |
| SO | 0.902 | -0.098 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.162 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.221 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.579 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.758 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.087 |
| OBP | 0.311 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.407 |
| SLG | 0.351 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.098 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.181 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.026 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.558 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.668 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.827 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.055 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | 0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.506 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.398 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.351 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.136 |
KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.233 | 0.012 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.326 | 0.015 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.370 | 0.019 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2105 | 0.2632 | 0.2105 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.0000 | 0.3684 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 12.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 9.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3333 | 0.3889 | 0.3333 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.0000 | 0.2500 |
| season | 0.60 | 96 | - | 338.000 | 76.000 | 17.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 40.000 | 48.000 | 38.000 | 78.000 | 0.2249 | 0.3079 | 0.3462 | 0.2248 | 0.0177 | 0.1183 | 0.1124 | 0.2308 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1860 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6080 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2440 |
| predicted_H | 0.8800 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0200 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0450 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2944 |
| predicted_R | 0.5200 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3780 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3432 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9360 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1770 | 0.1860 | 0.1809 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0310 | 0.0190 | 0.0259 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5210 | 3.6080 | 3.5583 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2250 | 0.2440 | 0.2331 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3960 | 0.2440 | 0.3309 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7920 | 0.8800 | 0.8297 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0200 | 0.0200 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0620 | 0.0450 | 0.0547 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3030 | 0.2944 | 0.2993 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5000 | 0.5200 | 0.5086 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4170 | 0.3780 | 0.4003 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3460 | 0.3432 | 0.3448 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8130 | 0.9360 | 0.8657 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 349 |
| Season rows before report date | 349 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 96 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 695731 |
| playerID | 695731 |
| playerName | Braden Montgomery |
| pos | OF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.298 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.325 |
| sl_xba | 0.255 |
| sl_xslg | 0.392 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 3.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.231 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.278 | 0.000 | -0.278 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.030 | 0.000 | -0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.787 | 1.000 | 0.213 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.288 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.310 | 0.000 | 0.023 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.111 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.122 | 1.000 | -0.122 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.720 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.865 | 0.000 | 0.135 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.138 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.161 | 0.000 | 0.839 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.342 | 0.500 | -0.009 | -0.167 |
| predicted_R | 0.378 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.391 | 1.000 | 0.609 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.424 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.530 | 0.000 | 0.470 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.561 | 1.333 | 1.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.605 | 0.000 | 0.728 | 1.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.581 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.600 | 1.000 | 0.400 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.1380 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8620, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_2B: 0.2310 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2310, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 2.5650 (boost 0.0650, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5610 -> 0.5477 (deboost -0.0133, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.4531 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5469, better) | predicted_2B: 0.2082 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2082, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.057 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3940 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3940, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.2188 (boost 0.2188, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5200 (deboost -0.4800, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 6 | predicted_RBI: 0.5200 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4800, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2188 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2188, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4520 -> 0.4760 (boost 0.0240, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2610 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.0110, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "545341",
"player_name": "Randal Grichuk",
"position": "LF",
"team": "CHW",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.231,
"predicted_3B": 0.018,
"predicted_AB": 2.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.288,
"predicted_BB": 0.111,
"predicted_H": 0.72,
"predicted_HR": 0.138,
"predicted_OBP": 0.318,
"predicted_R": 0.378,
"predicted_RBI": 0.424,
"predicted_SLG": 0.561,
"predicted_SO": 0.581
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2082,
"predicted_3B": 0.0155,
"predicted_AB": 2.565,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2829,
"predicted_BB": 0.1431,
"predicted_H": 0.7251,
"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.1464,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3196,
"predicted_R": 0.3962,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4557,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5477,
"predicted_SO": 0.5747
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.565,
"delta": 0.065,
"percent_delta": 0.026,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.2829,
"delta": -0.0051,
"percent_delta": -0.0177,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.561,
"after": 0.5477,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -0.0237,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.565,
"delta": 0.065,
"percent_delta": 0.026,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.561,
"after": 0.5477,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -0.0237,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 115
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0155,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.1462,
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"predicted_R": 0.394,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4531,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5459,
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},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.057",
"stats": {
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
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},
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}
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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},
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},
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},
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},
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}
],
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}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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},
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},
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},
{
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],
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}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
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"summary": {
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}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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},
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}
],
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_H": 1.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.304,
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"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 4.0
},
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},
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],
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.424,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.576,
"percent_delta": 1.3585,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.561,
"after": 0.467,
"delta": -0.094,
"percent_delta": -0.1676,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.581,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.419,
"percent_delta": 0.7212,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"percent_delta": 6.2464,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.231,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.231 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.288 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.111 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.720 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.138 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.378 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.424 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.561 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.581 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.208 | -0.023 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 2.565 | 0.065 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.283 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.143 | 0.032 |
| predicted_H | 0.725 | 0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.146 | 0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.396 | 0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.456 | 0.032 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.548 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.575 | -0.006 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.208 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.565 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.282 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.143 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.722 | -0.003 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.146 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.394 | -0.002 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.453 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.546 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.573 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.057
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.181 | 0.181 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.219 | 0.219 |
| H | 0.823 | -0.177 |
| HR | 0.160 | 0.160 |
| RBI | 0.520 | -0.480 |
| SO | 0.955 | -0.045 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.181 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.247 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.219 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.177 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.160 |
| OBP | 0.299 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.480 |
| SLG | 0.452 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.045 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.208 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.435 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | -0.035 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.143 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.278 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.146 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | -0.021 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.394 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.547 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.452 | -0.094 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.427 |
KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.261 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.314 | 0.015 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.476 | 0.024 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.2308 | 0.3333 | 0.4615 | 0.2308 | 0.0769 | 0.2308 | 0.1538 | 0.2308 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 30.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.3000 | 0.3333 | 0.5667 | 0.3000 | 0.0667 | 0.2333 | 0.0667 | 0.1333 |
| season | 0.60 | 115 | - | 271.000 | 78.000 | 25.000 | 2.000 | 15.000 | 46.000 | 41.000 | 12.000 | 63.000 | 0.2878 | 0.3171 | 0.5609 | 0.2878 | 0.0554 | 0.1697 | 0.0443 | 0.2325 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1770 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 2.6540 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2759 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1870 |
| predicted_H | 0.7320 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1580 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3219 |
| predicted_R | 0.4210 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4990 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5294 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5660 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2310 | 0.1770 | 0.2082 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0180 | 0.0120 | 0.0155 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 2.6540 | 2.5650 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2880 | 0.2759 | 0.2829 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1110 | 0.1870 | 0.1431 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7200 | 0.7320 | 0.7251 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0080 | 0.0080 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1380 | 0.1580 | 0.1464 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3180 | 0.3219 | 0.3196 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3780 | 0.4210 | 0.3962 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4240 | 0.4990 | 0.4557 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5610 | 0.5294 | 0.5477 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5810 | 0.5660 | 0.5747 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 230 |
| Season rows before report date | 230 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 115 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-DH |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 545341 |
| note | Walked for Benintendi in the 6th. |
| playerID | 545341 |
| playerName | Randal Grichuk |
| pos | DH |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.37 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.335 |
| sl_xba | 0.278 |
| sl_xslg | 0.478 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 49.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.175 | 1.000 | -0.175 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.699 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.819 | 3.000 | -0.819 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.206 | 0.667 | 0.127 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.353 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.374 | 0.000 | -0.374 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.800 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.788 | 2.000 | 0.212 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.219 | 0.000 | 0.781 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.286 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.292 | 0.667 | 0.041 | -0.333 |
| predicted_R | 0.462 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.506 | 0.000 | 0.494 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.618 | 1.000 | 0.382 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.395 | 1.333 | 1.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.424 | 1.000 | 0.910 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 1.474 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.502 | 0.000 | -0.502 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.1700 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8300, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.6990 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.6990, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_AB: 3.6990 -> 3.6177 (deboost -0.0813, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2805 -> 0.2700 (deboost -0.0105, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.7331 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2669, better) | predicted_AB: 3.6177 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.6177, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.047 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4220 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4220, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4619 (boost 0.4619, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6613 (deboost -0.3387, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | predicted_OBP: 0.2700 -> 0.2890 (boost 0.0190, better) | predicted_H: 0.6613 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6613, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "695657",
"player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
"position": "SS",
"team": "CHW",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.16,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.699,
"predicted_AVG": 0.216,
"predicted_BB": 0.353,
"predicted_H": 0.8,
"predicted_HR": 0.17,
"predicted_OBP": 0.286,
"predicted_R": 0.462,
"predicted_RBI": 0.56,
"predicted_SLG": 0.395,
"predicted_SO": 1.474
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1596,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.6177,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2029,
"predicted_BB": 0.3329,
"predicted_H": 0.7358,
"predicted_HBP": 0.118,
"predicted_HR": 0.1752,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2805,
"predicted_R": 0.4244,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5159,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3914,
"predicted_SO": 1.4342
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.699,
"after": 3.6177,
"delta": -0.0813,
"percent_delta": -0.022,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.216,
"after": 0.2029,
"delta": -0.0131,
"percent_delta": -0.0606,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8,
"after": 0.7358,
"delta": -0.0642,
"percent_delta": -0.0803,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.286,
"after": 0.2805,
"delta": -0.0055,
"percent_delta": -0.0192,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.699,
"after": 3.6177,
"delta": -0.0813,
"percent_delta": -0.022,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 156
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1596,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.6177,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2026,
"predicted_BB": 0.3337,
"predicted_H": 0.7331,
"predicted_HBP": 0.118,
"predicted_HR": 0.175,
"predicted_OBP": 0.27,
"predicted_R": 0.422,
"predicted_RBI": 0.513,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3921,
"predicted_SO": 1.4306
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2805,
"after": 0.27,
"delta": -0.0105,
"percent_delta": -0.0374,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2805,
"after": 0.27,
"delta": -0.0105,
"percent_delta": -0.0374,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.047",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1596,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1596,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6177,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.6177,
"percent_delta": -0.1707,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"step": "consistency_constraints",
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0052,
"predicted_BB": 0.3475,
"predicted_H": 0.6613,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.4619,
"predicted_SO": 1.4036
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.217,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.302,
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
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},
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],
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}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
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}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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},
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},
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},
{
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}
],
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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},
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},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.218,
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"predicted_HR": 1.0,
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"predicted_SS": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 4.0
},
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}
}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.44,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.036,
"percent_delta": 0.0911,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.699 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.353 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.800 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.286 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.462 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.395 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.474 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | -0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.618 | -0.081 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.203 | -0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.333 | -0.020 |
| predicted_H | 0.736 | -0.064 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.118 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.175 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.424 | -0.038 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.516 | -0.044 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.391 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.434 | -0.040 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.618 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.203 | -0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.334 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.733 | -0.003 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.118 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.175 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.270 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.422 | -0.002 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.513 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.392 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.431 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.047
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.145 | 0.145 |
| 3B | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| BB | 0.347 | 0.347 |
| H | 0.661 | -0.339 |
| HR | 0.165 | 0.165 |
| RBI | 0.462 | 0.462 |
| SO | 1.404 | 0.404 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.206 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.347 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.661 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.165 |
| OBP | 0.289 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.462 |
| SLG | 0.408 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.404 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.160 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.618 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.206 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.334 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.733 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.175 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | 0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.422 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.513 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.408 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.431 |
KPI club run ratio x1.111 applied to runs and RBI, x1.054 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.217 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.302 | 0.013 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SLG | 0.430 | 0.022 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2941 | 0.4667 | 0.2000 | 0.0667 | 0.1333 | 0.0667 | 0.4000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 14.000 | 0.1176 | 0.2105 | 0.2353 | 0.1177 | 0.0294 | 0.0588 | 0.0882 | 0.4118 |
| season | 0.60 | 156 | - | 577.000 | 115.000 | 25.000 | 0.000 | 32.000 | 89.000 | 72.000 | 55.000 | 230.000 | 0.1993 | 0.2851 | 0.4090 | 0.1993 | 0.0555 | 0.1542 | 0.0953 | 0.3986 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1590 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5130 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1860 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3070 |
| predicted_H | 0.6530 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1180 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1820 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2735 |
| predicted_R | 0.3760 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4590 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3867 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3830 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1600 | 0.1590 | 0.1596 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6990 | 3.5130 | 3.6177 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2160 | 0.1860 | 0.2029 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3530 | 0.3070 | 0.3329 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8000 | 0.6530 | 0.7358 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1180 | 0.1180 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1700 | 0.1820 | 0.1752 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2860 | 0.2735 | 0.2805 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4620 | 0.3760 | 0.4244 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5600 | 0.4590 | 0.5159 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3950 | 0.3867 | 0.3914 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.4740 | 1.3830 | 1.4342 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 613 |
| Season rows before report date | 613 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 156 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.667 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20261003_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 695657 |
| playerID | 695657 |
| playerName | Colson Montgomery |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 35.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.3 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.294 |
| sl_xba | 0.199 |
| sl_xslg | 0.388 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 23.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 37.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.565 | 1.000 | 0.435 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.532 | 0.000 | 1.468 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_H | 1.226 | 1.000 | 2.774 | 3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 3.100 | 3.100 | 3.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.310 | 2.000 | 1.790 | 1.100 |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.403 | 3.000 | 1.597 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 4 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_ER: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 7.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -4.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | starter_usage_guardrail | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.0000 (deboost -0.6667, worse) | Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context. |
| 8 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 9 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score |
| 10 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | predicted_ER: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_SO: 7.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -4.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 11 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656794",
"player_name": "Sean Newcomb",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "CHW",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.6667,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
"description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": -0.6667,
"percent_delta": -0.1176,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": -0.6667,
"percent_delta": -0.1176,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 3.1,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 3.1,
"delta": -1.9,
"percent_delta": -0.38,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -4.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5714,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -4.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5714,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 3.1,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 3.1,
"delta": -2.5667,
"percent_delta": -0.4529,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -4.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5714,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -4.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5714,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | -0.667 |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | 0.000 |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | 0.000 |
Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| BF | 16.000 | - |
| ER | 2.000 | - |
| H | 4.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 3.100 | - |
| Pitches | 66.000 | - |
| R | 2.000 | - |
| SO | 3.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 7.100 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 2.4545 | 0.9545 | 0.2727 | 0.6818 | 0.2727 | 1.2273 | 0.1364 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 13.100 | 10.000 | 16.000 | 5.000 | 14.000 | 2.000 | 6.7500 | 1.5750 | 0.7500 | 1.2000 | 0.3750 | 1.0500 | 0.1500 |
| season | 0.20 | 60 | 93.100 | 31.000 | 72.000 | 33.000 | 87.000 | 4.000 | 2.9893 | 1.1250 | 0.3321 | 0.7714 | 0.3536 | 0.9321 | 0.0429 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.7660 |
| predicted_ER | 1.0580 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.1802 |
| predicted_H | 2.0570 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2910 |
| predicted_IP | 2.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 2.4400 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2387 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.7660 | 0.8683 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 1.0580 | 1.0327 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.1802 | 4.1802 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 3.0000 | 2.0570 | 2.4691 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.2910 | 0.1638 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 | 2.1000 | 3.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 7.0000 | 2.4400 | 4.4329 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2387 | 1.2387 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 62 |
| Season rows before report date | 62 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 60 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 3.1 |
| H | 4 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 3 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 16 |
| Pitches | 66 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 1 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 9 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 6.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 2 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 2.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 40 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 3 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 24 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261005_CHW@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656794 |
| playerID | 656794 |
| playerName | Sean Newcomb |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.285 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.317 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.9 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.732436083 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.013500335 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.842 | 0.000 | -0.842 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.211 | 0.000 | 1.789 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 0.684 | 2.000 | 1.316 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.484 | 3.000 | -0.384 | -1.900 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 2.211 | 1.000 | -1.211 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 3 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_ER: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_ER: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "696146",
"player_name": "Hagen Smith",
"position": "Long Reliever",
"team": "CHW",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 6.000 | - |
| ER | 2.000 | - |
| H | 2.000 | - |
| HR | 1.000 | - |
| IP | 1.100 | - |
| Pitches | 32.000 | - |
| R | 2.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 7.100 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 1.2273 | 1.0909 | 0.1364 | 0.5454 | 0.5454 | 1.0909 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 18.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 23.000 | 0.000 | 1.5000 | 0.7778 | 0.1667 | 0.4444 | 0.3333 | 1.2778 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 18 | 31.000 | 3.000 | 12.000 | 16.000 | 42.000 | 0.000 | 0.8710 | 0.9032 | 0.0968 | 0.3871 | 0.5161 | 1.3548 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.6150 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4360 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.7309 |
| predicted_H | 1.0070 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0930 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.5630 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1288 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.6150 | 0.2858 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.4360 | 0.7379 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.7309 | 2.7309 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 1.0070 | 1.5386 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.0930 | 0.5785 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.5630 | 0.7263 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1288 | 1.1288 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 19 |
| Season rows before report date | 19 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 18 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 6 |
| Pitches | 32 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 11 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 7 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 3.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 38 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 28 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 696146 |
| playerID | 696146 |
| playerName | Hagen Smith |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 37.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 14.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.211 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.243 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 1.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 36.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.859778846 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.418211538 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.581 | 0.000 | 0.419 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.395 | 3.000 | 0.605 | -2.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 0.837 | 4.000 | 1.163 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.784 | 1.000 | 0.216 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.140 | 2.000 | -0.140 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 3 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_ER: 3.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -2.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | - | predicted_ER: 3.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -2.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "663855",
"player_name": "Jordan Hicks",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "CHW",
"steps": [
{
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}
},
{
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"stats": {
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"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
"weights": {
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"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
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}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
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"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
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"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 3.0,
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"percent_delta": -0.6667,
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},
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{
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"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| BF | 6.000 | - |
| ER | 1.000 | - |
| H | 2.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 1.000 | - |
| Pitches | 22.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 6.0000 | 1.5000 | 0.6667 | 1.0000 | 0.5000 | 1.5000 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 6.000 | 13.000 | 4.000 | 14.000 | 2.000 | 5.4000 | 1.7000 | 0.6000 | 1.3000 | 0.4000 | 1.4000 | 0.2000 |
| season | 0.20 | 42 | 40.000 | 17.000 | 35.000 | 25.000 | 49.000 | 3.000 | 3.8250 | 1.5000 | 0.4250 | 0.8750 | 0.6250 | 1.2250 | 0.0750 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4910 |
| predicted_ER | 0.6170 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.0796 |
| predicted_H | 1.1420 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1700 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3460 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4929 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.4910 | 0.7502 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 0.6170 | 1.8307 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.0796 | 5.0796 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 4.0000 | 1.1420 | 2.5977 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.1700 | 0.5927 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.3460 | 1.1698 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4929 | 1.4929 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 43 |
| Season rows before report date | 43 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 42 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 6 |
| Pitches | 22 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 7 |
| Pitching_ER | 3 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.83 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 4 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 24 |
| Pitching_R | 3 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 19 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260825_TEX@CHW |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663855 |
| playerID | 663855 |
| playerName | Jordan Hicks |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-08-25 |
| game_pk | 824556.0 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.309 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.262 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 1.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.3 |
| sv_pitch_count | 24.0 |
| sv_outs_recorded_est | 3.0 |
| sv_release_speed | 94.46666666666664 |
| sv_release_spin_rate | 2106.5 |
| sv_effective_speed | 94.69583333333333 |
| sv_launch_speed | 87.17777777777778 |
| sv_launch_angle | 28.33333333333333 |
| sv_woba_value | 5.05 |
| sv_woba_denom | 7.0 |
| sv_delta_run_exp | 2.059 |
| sv_delta_home_win_exp | -0.049 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.231887586 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.498076 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.254 | 0.000 | -0.254 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.328 | 2.000 | -0.328 | -2.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.925 | 4.000 | 0.075 | -3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 3.100 | 3.100 | 3.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.857 | 0.100 | 2.243 | 3.000 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.881 | 0.000 | 1.119 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 3 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 3.1000 (boost 2.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 3.1000 (boost 2.1000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "663542",
"player_name": "Bryan Hudson",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "CHW",
"steps": [
{
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"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
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},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
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},
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"index": 6,
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"index": 7,
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"predicted_IP": 3.1,
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}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 11.000 | - |
| ER | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 3.100 | - |
| Pitches | 36.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 4.1538 | 1.3846 | 0.4615 | 1.3846 | 0.0000 | 0.4615 | 0.2308 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.100 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 1.7419 | 1.0645 | 0.1935 | 1.0645 | 0.0000 | 0.6774 | 0.0968 |
| season | 0.20 | 66 | 65.100 | 19.000 | 59.000 | 17.000 | 59.000 | 5.000 | 2.6173 | 1.1633 | 0.2908 | 0.9031 | 0.2602 | 0.9031 | 0.0765 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1410 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3820 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.4410 |
| predicted_H | 1.1250 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1520 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7090 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2654 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1410 | 0.0755 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3820 | 0.2047 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.4410 | 3.4410 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.1250 | 0.6027 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1520 | 0.0814 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.7090 | 0.3799 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2654 | 1.2654 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 67 |
| Season rows before report date | 67 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 66 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 3.1 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 11 |
| Pitches | 36 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 1 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.03 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 4 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 1 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 14 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 9 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 1 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 6 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260918_DET@CHW |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663542 |
| playerID | 663542 |
| playerName | Bryan Hudson |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-18 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.304 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.277 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.9 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.03898567 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.301948299 |
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | LAD 6 - 4 ATL | LAD | 0.507 | enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target | True |
| Simulation draw | LAD 6 - 4 ATL | LAD | - | organic_simulation_realized_target | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.5348; empirical=0.5474; weight=0.4500; final=0.5405 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=13; abs=13; home delta=0.0750; away delta=-0.0750 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=2.2500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=-0.5802; recent edge=-0.6640; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 6.2000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5072 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_simulation_realized_target |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 8 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 4.695 | 3.971 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 5 | 4 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 5 | 4 | 0.5072 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| 4 | kpi_layer | 5 | 4 | - | Savant KPI blend applied to the model target |
| 5 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 6 | 4 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 6 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 6 | 4 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 7 | capped_target | 6 | 4 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 8 | simulation_result | 6 | 4 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.7692178284320569,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.4275618374558304,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5075618374558304,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.3416559909762265,
"confidence": 0.9,
"factors": {
"environmental": 1.0710000000000002,
"pitcher_form": 1.4520000000000002,
"team_form": 1.08,
"situational": 1.0712000000000002,
"combined": 1.7990797144320008
},
"prediction": "low_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 10,
"score_scale_mode": "control",
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 6.2,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 6.2,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 10,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
}{
"method": "monotone_reliability_shrinkage",
"policy": "shrink_toward_even_score_floor_v3",
"sample_size": 612,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 612,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 822,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 905,
"global_sample_size": 1135,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5474,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.546,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5097,
"raw_pick_probability_unclamped": 0.5097,
"score_probability_conflict": false,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.4927,
"margin_implied_pick_probability": 0.5073,
"score_blend_weight": 0.45,
"blended_raw_pick_probability": 0.5086,
"score_implied_floor_pick_probability": 0.5071,
"max_published_pick_probability": 0.9,
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.490314,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.509686,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5084,
"predicted_side": "away",
"reliability": 0.971429,
"shrink_floor": 0.35,
"empirical_penalty": 1.0,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.981429
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.534804,
"sample_size": 612,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5474,
"empirical_weight": 0.45,
"empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
"empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
"blended_confidence": 0.540472,
"published_confidence": 0.507177,
"published_after_governors": true,
"governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": 13.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
"home_average_margin": 2.6,
"home_run_delta": 0.075,
"away_run_delta": -0.075,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 5.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 5.0
}
],
"adaptive_parameters": {
"h2h.history_limit": 5,
"h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
"h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
"h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
}
}{
"applied": true,
"home": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802469135802469,
"runs_scored": 742,
"runs_allowed": 626,
"run_differential": 116,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.7160493827160493,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6172839506172839,
"runs_scored": 801,
"runs_allowed": 600,
"run_differential": 201,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407407407407407,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.5247,
"win_pct_edge": -0.037,
"quality_edge": -0.6096,
"season_quality_edge": -0.5802,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": -0.5802,
"recent_quality_edge": -0.664,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "aligned",
"blended_quality_edge": -0.6096
},
"margin_adjustment": -0.256,
"reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
"margin_adjustment_policy": {
"adjustment": -0.256,
"cap": 1.4,
"scale": 0.42,
"quality_edge": -0.6096,
"season_quality_edge": -0.5802,
"recent_alignment": "aligned",
"large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
"method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 3.853,
"home_runs": 1.95,
"home_win_probability": 0.3382
}
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.029489293489311747
},
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.027917437096966608
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 2,
"probability": 0.02755127327653959
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.027151150086434102
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.026653902819991263
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.09211252309380141,
"1": 0.13288998686610193,
"2": 0.16404895161360217,
"3": 0.17328552273421471,
"4": 0.15662414851489012,
"5": 0.12113308721911,
"6": 0.08016309371442268,
"7": 0.045393510879338794,
"8": 0.02199483451469634,
"9": 0.00911916858374983,
"10": 0.003235172266072179
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.08833595639220453,
"1": 0.1277785247823392,
"2": 0.15899350875836135,
"3": 0.17017747948016648,
"4": 0.15668446883516363,
"5": 0.12409405660453059,
"6": 0.08454290824049321,
"7": 0.04954553863778199,
"8": 0.024976587112597547,
"9": 0.010830856563193806,
"10": 0.004040114593167503
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 2.25,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
"applied": true,
"confidence_cap": 0.53,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [
"latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side",
"recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick",
"local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks",
"a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result",
"latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design"
],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"opponent_team": "ATL",
"h2h_net_margin": -3,
"opponent_breakout": false,
"opponent_blowout_win": false,
"split_recent_h2h": false,
"recent_h2h": [
{
"date": "2026-08-27",
"predicted_team_runs": 0,
"opponent_runs": 1,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -1,
"winner": "ATL"
},
{
"date": "2026-08-26",
"predicted_team_runs": 5,
"opponent_runs": 6,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -1,
"winner": "ATL"
},
{
"date": "2026-08-25",
"predicted_team_runs": 3,
"opponent_runs": 4,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -1,
"winner": "ATL"
}
],
"prediction_memory": {
"available": true,
"reason": "verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available",
"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
"verified_outcome_count": 6,
"consecutive_same_pick_count": 3,
"same_pick_actual_loss_count": 3,
"same_pick_blowout_loss_count": 0,
"prior_predictions": [
{
"date": "20261006",
"away": "LAD",
"home": "ATL",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"actual_winner": "LAD",
"actual_margin": 2,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.505154,
"artifact": "20261006_LAD@ATL.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20261004",
"away": "ATL",
"home": "LAD",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"actual_winner": "ATL",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.514946,
"artifact": "20261004_ATL@LAD.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20261003",
"away": "ATL",
"home": "LAD",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"actual_winner": "LAD",
"actual_margin": 2,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.546692,
"artifact": "20261003_ATL@LAD.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260827",
"away": "LAD",
"home": "ATL",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "ATL",
"actual_winner": "ATL",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.560841,
"artifact": "20260827_LAD@ATL.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260826",
"away": "LAD",
"home": "ATL",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"actual_winner": "ATL",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5486690000000001,
"artifact": "20260826_LAD@ATL.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "LAD",
"guardrail_opponent_team": "ATL",
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "LAD",
"output_opponent_team": "ATL",
"simulation_score_winner": "LAD",
"final_score_winner": "LAD",
"pre_simulation_winner": "LAD",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false
},
"hard_flip_suppressed": true,
"flip_authority": "caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only"
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"policy": "recency_uncertainty_shrinkage_v2",
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802469135802469,
"runs_scored": 742,
"runs_allowed": 626,
"run_differential": 116,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.7160493827160493,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6172839506172839,
"runs_scored": 801,
"runs_allowed": 600,
"run_differential": 201,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407407407407407,
"available": true
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_margin": -0.1,
"final_margin": -0.1,
"margin_cap": 1.5,
"season_quality_edge": 0.6096,
"reason": "raw target margin within supported range"
}{
"applied": true,
"policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
"raw_confidence": 0.535236,
"final_confidence": 0.5084,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5084,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.981429,
"hard_maximum": 0.9,
"confidence_floor": 0.505,
"score_gap": 0.1,
"calibration_sample_size": 612,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5474,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.546,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 0.6096,
"reasons": [
"confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
],
"score_coherence": {
"policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"published_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3
},
"margin": -1,
"probability_before": 0.491557,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.427612,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.981429,
"side_flipped": false,
"applied": false,
"magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
"probability_after": 0.491557,
"aligned_pick_probability": 0.508443
},
"starter_experience": {
"applied": false,
"min_starter_games": 13,
"shrink_factor": 1.0
}
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1387,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.314,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "LAD",
"model_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 6,
"published_winner": "LAD",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
"draw_majority_team": "LAD",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 2,
"simulation_margin": 2,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 4
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 2,
"final_margin": 2,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
"winner": "LAD",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 4,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 4,
"confidence": 0.50717655,
"home_win_probability": 0.49282345000000005,
"away_win_probability": 0.50717655,
"predicted_score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL",
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.491557,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.508443,
"confidence_shrinkage": {
"policy": "starter_quality_shrinkage_v3",
"staged_confidence": 0.508443,
"discount_factor": 0.85,
"published_confidence": 0.507177,
"guardrail_confidence_cap": 0.53,
"guardrail_cap_enforced": false,
"guardrail_soft_ceiling_applied": false,
"confidence_before_ceiling": 0.507177,
"applied_discounts": [
{
"reason": "matchup_recency_guardrail",
"factor": 0.85
}
]
},
"score_probability_reconciliation": {
"policy": "published_probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"incoming_home_win_probability": 0.3,
"incoming_favoured_side": "away",
"score_winner_side": "away",
"published_home_win_probability": 0.492823,
"probability_side_reverted_by_score": false,
"note": "The probability and the projected score agree on the winner."
},
"confidence_note": "Probability shrunk toward even by starter-quality and guardrail discounts; no per-game clamp is applied. Discounts: matchup_recency_guardrail x0.85.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 4,
"predicted_score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL",
"confidence": 0.50717655,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1387,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.314,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "LAD",
"model_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 6,
"published_winner": "LAD",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
"draw_majority_team": "LAD",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 2,
"simulation_margin": 2,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 4
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 2,
"final_margin": 2,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
"winner": "LAD",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 4,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | True | 1.0680 | 1.0680 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home ATL | True | 1.0386 | 1.0386 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS | Mookie Betts | - | 1.0592 | 0.7895 | neutral | 0.3390 | 0.2780 | 0.4350 | 7.80 | 38 | 90.20 | 17.90 | 12.50 | 11 | 8.90 | 0.0286 |
| 1B | Freddie Freeman | - | 1.0846 | 1.1277 | neutral | 0.3630 | 0.2900 | 0.4630 | 8.10 | 41.30 | 89.50 | 12.20 | 23.20 | 17.70 | 10 | 0.4286 |
| C | Will Smith | - | 1.1236 | 1.6486 | positive_batter_regression | 0.3890 | 0.2790 | 0.5020 | 12.40 | 41.20 | 89.10 | 20.10 | 16.70 | 16.30 | 12.30 | 1.2571 |
| DH | Shohei Ohtani | - | 1.1401 | 1.8682 | neutral | 0.3970 | 0.2860 | 0.5520 | 16.40 | 52.10 | 93.30 | 12.30 | 31.70 | 24.60 | 13.10 | 0.5714 |
| LF | Teoscar Hernández | - | 1.0522 | 0.6961 | neutral | 0.3320 | 0.2560 | 0.4370 | 10.70 | 44.80 | 90.30 | 13.90 | 32.60 | 27.50 | 8.60 | 0 |
| 3B | Max Muncy | - | 1.0693 | 0.9236 | neutral | 0.3490 | 0.2420 | 0.4700 | 12.90 | 45.80 | 89.90 | 17.50 | 29.20 | 25 | 11.60 | -0.3429 |
| 2B | Enrique Hernández | - | 0.9921 | -0.1058 | neutral | 0.2790 | 0.2200 | 0.3670 | 8.10 | 40.30 | 89 | 10.90 | 25 | 29.20 | 6.30 | -0.4000 |
| RF | Kyle Tucker | - | 1.0358 | 0.4771 | neutral | 0.3310 | 0.2560 | 0.3930 | 6.40 | 36.30 | 88.50 | 18.10 | 20.80 | 16.70 | 12.40 | 0.3714 |
| CF | Andy Pages | - | 1.0550 | 0.7337 | neutral | 0.3430 | 0.2740 | 0.4420 | 7.90 | 42.30 | 88.90 | 15.70 | 22.10 | 19.70 | 8.50 | -0.2571 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | Michael Harris II | - | 1.0702 | 0.9360 | neutral | 0.3420 | 0.2900 | 0.4770 | 10.30 | 47.60 | 90.50 | 10 | 24.60 | 19.20 | 3.70 | -0.2000 |
| RF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | - | 1.0946 | 1.2607 | neutral | 0.3660 | 0.2610 | 0.4950 | 13 | 43.50 | 89.60 | 15.70 | 29 | 22 | 11.30 | 0.5143 |
| 1B | Matt Olson | - | 1.0899 | 1.1980 | neutral | 0.3510 | 0.2470 | 0.5030 | 14.20 | 52 | 92.50 | 18.10 | 25.40 | 24.50 | 9.20 | 0 |
| 2B | Ozzie Albies | - | 0.9552 | -0.5967 | neutral | 0.2730 | 0.2210 | 0.3370 | 3.80 | 27.70 | 87.10 | 17.80 | 21.20 | 15.40 | 6.70 | -0.7143 |
| DH | Drake Baldwin | - | 1.1093 | 1.4576 | neutral | 0.3700 | 0.2790 | 0.5050 | 12.90 | 50.60 | 91.50 | 11 | 24.40 | 21.50 | 8.90 | 0.3429 |
| LF | Mike Yastrzemski | - | 1.0162 | 0.2160 | neutral | 0.3090 | 0.2350 | 0.3680 | 6.80 | 43 | 90.40 | 16.20 | 23.20 | 24 | 10 | 0.0857 |
| SS | Mauricio Dubón | - | 0.9974 | -0.0343 | neutral | 0.3040 | 0.2680 | 0.3750 | 4 | 29.40 | 86.50 | 16.10 | 15.30 | 11.80 | 5.70 | -0.3714 |
| 3B | Austin Riley | - | 1.0239 | 0.3191 | neutral | 0.2990 | 0.2130 | 0.3960 | 12.40 | 44.30 | 91.30 | 18.50 | 31.90 | 31.90 | 7.60 | 0.2571 |
| C | Sean Murphy | - | 0.9903 | -0.1298 | neutral | 0.2730 | 0.2060 | 0.3320 | 8.20 | 41.10 | 87.80 | 5.60 | 31.90 | 30.60 | 9.10 | 0.6000 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0386,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0386,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "671739",
"player_name": "Michael Harris II",
"offense_factor": 1.0702,
"quality_score": 0.936,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "671739",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 573.0,
"k_percent": 19.2,
"bb_percent": 3.7,
"woba": 0.349,
"xwoba": 0.342,
"xba": 0.29,
"xslg": 0.477,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 47.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 10.0,
"whiff_percent": 24.6,
"swing_percent": 56.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.1209,
"regression_edge": -0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2286,
"xba_edge": 1.5429,
"xslg_edge": 1.6286,
"barrel_edge": 0.8222,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.4286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.84,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "660670",
"player_name": "Ronald Acuña Jr.",
"offense_factor": 1.0946,
"quality_score": 1.2607,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "660670",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 429.0,
"k_percent": 22.0,
"bb_percent": 11.3,
"woba": 0.348,
"xwoba": 0.366,
"xba": 0.261,
"xslg": 0.495,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 13.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.5,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 15.7,
"whiff_percent": 29.0,
"swing_percent": 49.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.3822,
"regression_edge": 0.5143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.9143,
"xba_edge": 0.7143,
"xslg_edge": 1.8857,
"barrel_edge": 1.4222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.2333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "621566",
"player_name": "Matt Olson",
"offense_factor": 1.0899,
"quality_score": 1.198,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "621566",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 646.0,
"k_percent": 24.5,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.351,
"xwoba": 0.351,
"xba": 0.247,
"xslg": 0.503,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 14.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 52.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 92.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 18.1,
"whiff_percent": 25.4,
"swing_percent": 46.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.3931,
"regression_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4857,
"xba_edge": 0.3143,
"xslg_edge": 2.0,
"barrel_edge": 1.6889,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.0571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.64,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "645277",
"player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
"offense_factor": 0.9552,
"quality_score": -0.5967,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "645277",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 634.0,
"k_percent": 15.4,
"bb_percent": 6.7,
"woba": 0.298,
"xwoba": 0.273,
"xba": 0.221,
"xslg": 0.337,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 27.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.8,
"whiff_percent": 21.2,
"swing_percent": 56.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.5775,
"regression_edge": -0.7143,
"xwoba_edge": -0.7429,
"xba_edge": -0.4286,
"xslg_edge": -0.3714,
"barrel_edge": -0.6222,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.4143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.52,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.1667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "686948",
"player_name": "Drake Baldwin",
"offense_factor": 1.1093,
"quality_score": 1.4576,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "686948",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 570.0,
"k_percent": 21.5,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.358,
"xwoba": 0.37,
"xba": 0.279,
"xslg": 0.505,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 50.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.0,
"whiff_percent": 24.4,
"swing_percent": 51.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.6391,
"regression_edge": 0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 2.0286,
"xba_edge": 1.2286,
"xslg_edge": 2.0286,
"barrel_edge": 1.4,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.8571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.7,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "573262",
"player_name": "Mike Yastrzemski",
"offense_factor": 1.0162,
"quality_score": 0.216,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "573262",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 363.0,
"k_percent": 24.0,
"bb_percent": 10.0,
"woba": 0.306,
"xwoba": 0.309,
"xba": 0.235,
"xslg": 0.368,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.2,
"whiff_percent": 23.2,
"swing_percent": 42.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.2372,
"regression_edge": 0.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
"xba_edge": -0.0286,
"xslg_edge": 0.0714,
"barrel_edge": 0.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.8,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.3333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "643289",
"player_name": "Mauricio Dubón",
"offense_factor": 0.9974,
"quality_score": -0.0343,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "643289",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 574.0,
"k_percent": 11.8,
"bb_percent": 5.7,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.304,
"xba": 0.268,
"xslg": 0.375,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 29.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 86.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.1,
"whiff_percent": 15.3,
"swing_percent": 53.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0206,
"regression_edge": -0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1429,
"xba_edge": 0.9143,
"xslg_edge": 0.1714,
"barrel_edge": -0.5778,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.1714,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.76,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.5333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "663586",
"player_name": "Austin Riley",
"offense_factor": 1.0239,
"quality_score": 0.3191,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "663586",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 589.0,
"k_percent": 31.9,
"bb_percent": 7.6,
"woba": 0.29,
"xwoba": 0.299,
"xba": 0.213,
"xslg": 0.396,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 44.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 18.5,
"whiff_percent": 31.9,
"swing_percent": 48.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3291,
"regression_edge": 0.2571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0,
"xba_edge": -0.6571,
"xslg_edge": 0.4714,
"barrel_edge": 1.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.9571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.16,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.1667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "669221",
"player_name": "Sean Murphy",
"offense_factor": 0.9903,
"quality_score": -0.1298,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669221",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 96.0,
"k_percent": 30.6,
"bb_percent": 9.1,
"woba": 0.252,
"xwoba": 0.273,
"xba": 0.206,
"xslg": 0.332,
"sweet_spot_percent": 26.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 5.6,
"whiff_percent": 31.9,
"swing_percent": 50.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.433,
"regression_edge": 0.6,
"xwoba_edge": -0.7429,
"xba_edge": -0.8571,
"xslg_edge": -0.4429,
"barrel_edge": 0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": -1.2167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.068,
"raw_average_factor": 1.068,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "605141",
"player_name": "Mookie Betts",
"offense_factor": 1.0592,
"quality_score": 0.7895,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "605141",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 475.0,
"k_percent": 11.0,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.338,
"xwoba": 0.339,
"xba": 0.278,
"xslg": 0.435,
"sweet_spot_percent": 40.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.9,
"whiff_percent": 12.5,
"swing_percent": 41.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.9134,
"regression_edge": 0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 1.1429,
"xba_edge": 1.2,
"xslg_edge": 1.0286,
"barrel_edge": 0.2667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.72,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.1833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "518692",
"player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
"offense_factor": 1.0846,
"quality_score": 1.1277,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "518692",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 607.0,
"k_percent": 17.7,
"bb_percent": 10.0,
"woba": 0.348,
"xwoba": 0.363,
"xba": 0.29,
"xslg": 0.463,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.2,
"whiff_percent": 23.2,
"swing_percent": 50.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.2415,
"regression_edge": 0.4286,
"xwoba_edge": 1.8286,
"xba_edge": 1.5429,
"xslg_edge": 1.4286,
"barrel_edge": 0.3333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.5286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.44,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.9,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "669257",
"player_name": "Will Smith",
"offense_factor": 1.1236,
"quality_score": 1.6486,
"regression_flag": "positive_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669257",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 242.0,
"k_percent": 16.3,
"bb_percent": 12.3,
"woba": 0.345,
"xwoba": 0.389,
"xba": 0.279,
"xslg": 0.502,
"sweet_spot_percent": 43.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 20.1,
"whiff_percent": 16.7,
"swing_percent": 41.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.7123,
"regression_edge": 1.2571,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"xba_edge": 1.2286,
"xslg_edge": 1.9857,
"barrel_edge": 1.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.5143,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.28,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.6667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "660271",
"player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
"offense_factor": 1.1401,
"quality_score": 1.8682,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "660271",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 571.0,
"k_percent": 24.6,
"bb_percent": 13.1,
"woba": 0.377,
"xwoba": 0.397,
"xba": 0.286,
"xslg": 0.552,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 16.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 52.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 93.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.3,
"whiff_percent": 31.7,
"swing_percent": 46.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 2.0793,
"regression_edge": 0.5714,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"xba_edge": 1.4286,
"xslg_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 2.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.0714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.96,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.7833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "606192",
"player_name": "Teoscar Hernández",
"offense_factor": 1.0522,
"quality_score": 0.6961,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "606192",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 443.0,
"k_percent": 27.5,
"bb_percent": 8.6,
"woba": 0.332,
"xwoba": 0.332,
"xba": 0.256,
"xslg": 0.437,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 44.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.9,
"whiff_percent": 32.6,
"swing_percent": 48.0
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.8094,
"regression_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": 0.9429,
"xba_edge": 0.5714,
"xslg_edge": 1.0571,
"barrel_edge": 0.9111,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.0286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.76,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "571970",
"player_name": "Max Muncy",
"offense_factor": 1.0693,
"quality_score": 0.9236,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "571970",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 519.0,
"k_percent": 25.0,
"bb_percent": 11.6,
"woba": 0.361,
"xwoba": 0.349,
"xba": 0.242,
"xslg": 0.47,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 45.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.5,
"whiff_percent": 29.2,
"swing_percent": 44.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.1298,
"regression_edge": -0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4286,
"xba_edge": 0.1714,
"xslg_edge": 1.5286,
"barrel_edge": 1.4,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.1714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.6,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.4167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "571771",
"player_name": "Enrique Hernández",
"offense_factor": 0.9921,
"quality_score": -0.1058,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "571771",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 80.0,
"k_percent": 29.2,
"bb_percent": 6.3,
"woba": 0.293,
"xwoba": 0.279,
"xba": 0.22,
"xslg": 0.367,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.0,
"launch_angle_avg": 10.9,
"whiff_percent": 25.0,
"swing_percent": 52.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.2084,
"regression_edge": -0.4,
"xwoba_edge": -0.5714,
"xba_edge": -0.4571,
"xslg_edge": 0.0571,
"barrel_edge": 0.3333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3857,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.9833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "663656",
"player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
"offense_factor": 1.0358,
"quality_score": 0.4771,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "663656",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 576.0,
"k_percent": 16.7,
"bb_percent": 12.4,
"woba": 0.318,
"xwoba": 0.331,
"xba": 0.256,
"xslg": 0.393,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 18.1,
"whiff_percent": 20.8,
"swing_percent": 48.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.4943,
"regression_edge": 0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 0.9143,
"xba_edge": 0.5714,
"xslg_edge": 0.4286,
"barrel_edge": -0.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.1857,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.04,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.15,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "681624",
"player_name": "Andy Pages",
"offense_factor": 1.055,
"quality_score": 0.7337,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "681624",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 544.0,
"k_percent": 19.7,
"bb_percent": 8.5,
"woba": 0.352,
"xwoba": 0.343,
"xba": 0.274,
"xslg": 0.442,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 15.7,
"whiff_percent": 22.1,
"swing_percent": 47.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.895,
"regression_edge": -0.2571,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2571,
"xba_edge": 1.0857,
"xslg_edge": 1.1286,
"barrel_edge": 0.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.6833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | Tyler Glasnow | True | - | 0.6422 | 0.9600 | 0.9454 | 1.1031 | 0.9904 | 0.9846 | neutral | 0.2630 | 0.2450 | 34 | 8.70 | 32.10 | 8.50 | 38.40 |
| Home ATL | Tyler Mahle | True | - | 0.0461 | 1 | 0.9961 | 0.9880 | 0.9660 | 0.9832 | neutral | 0.3060 | 0.3110 | 22.30 | 7.50 | 22.90 | 6.80 | 37.10 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | Tyler Glasnow | True | None | 90 | 90.86 | 2626 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0556 |
| Home ATL | Tyler Mahle | True | None | 93 | 89.64 | 2135 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0125 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 1.0031 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 0.9705 |
| home_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9961 |
| away_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9476 |
| home_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6667 |
| away_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6667 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | -0.3974 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "641816",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 543.0,
"k_percent": 22.3,
"bb_percent": 7.5,
"woba": 0.311,
"xwoba": 0.306,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
"avg_best_speed": 80.0191,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8316,
"whiff_percent": 22.9,
"swing_percent": 45.6
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0666,
"command_and_miss": -0.0171,
"regression_edge": 0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
"barrel_edge": 0.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1143,
"whiff_edge": -0.3286,
"bb_edge": 0.425,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0125
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "641816",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 93,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 93,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.64026118417685,
"release_spin_rate": 2134.9981031675284,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 93,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.64026118417685,
"release_spin_rate": 2134.9981031675284,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.6403,
"release_spin_rate": 2134.9981,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0125,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.0896,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.0461,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9961,
"strikeout_factor": 0.988,
"walk_factor": 0.966,
"homer_factor": 0.9832,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "641816",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "607192",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 240.0,
"k_percent": 34.0,
"bb_percent": 8.7,
"woba": 0.245,
"xwoba": 0.263,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
"avg_best_speed": 80.9446,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9414,
"whiff_percent": 32.1,
"swing_percent": 42.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.7516,
"command_and_miss": 1.135,
"regression_edge": -0.5143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4,
"barrel_edge": -0.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0714,
"whiff_edge": 0.9857,
"bb_edge": 0.125,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0556
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "607192",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 90,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 90,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.85773330934553,
"release_spin_rate": 2625.986737733158,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 90,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.85773330934553,
"release_spin_rate": 2625.986737733158,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 90.8577,
"release_spin_rate": 2625.9867,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0556,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.3974,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.6422,
"sample_weight": 0.96,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9454,
"strikeout_factor": 1.1031,
"walk_factor": 0.9904,
"homer_factor": 0.9846,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.018,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "607192",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 1.0031,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 0.9705,
"home_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.9961,
"away_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.9476,
"home_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6667,
"away_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6667,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": -0.3974
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 4.0,
"home_runs": 2.0
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 4.0123,
"home_runs": 1.9411,
"home_win_probability": 0.3168
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | 8-2 | 0.800 | 5 | 2.20 | 28 | 3W | average | strong |
| Home ATL | 5-5 | 0.500 | 4 | 3.90 | 1 | 1L | average | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | 100-62 | 0.617 | 201 | 1.241 | True |
| Home ATL | 94-68 | 0.580 | 116 | 0.716 | True |
| Signal | - | - | -0.525 | -0.610 | applied=True |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | LAD @ ATL | 0 - 1 | ATL | 1 | close |
| 2026-08-26 | LAD @ ATL | 5 - 6 | ATL | 1 | close |
| 2026-08-25 | LAD @ ATL | 3 - 4 | ATL | 1 | close |
| 2026-05-10 | ATL @ LAD | 7 - 2 | ATL | 5 | blowout |
| 2026-05-09 | ATL @ LAD | 7 - 2 | ATL | 5 | blowout |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target LAD | - | - | 6 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target ATL | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized LAD | 36 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| Player finalized ATL | 34 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| Player model fractional LAD | 34.01 | 8.36 | 4.66 | 1.61 | 4.29 | 3.28 | 7.67 |
| Player model fractional ATL | 33.97 | 6.57 | 3.95 | 1.20 | 3.77 | 3.05 | 9.60 |
| Simulation box LAD | 36 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| Simulation box ATL | 34 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | Starter | Tyler Glasnow | 5.10 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4.04 | 1.10 | True |
| Away LAD | Middle Reliever | Alex Vesia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.71 | 0.69 | True |
| Away LAD | Middle Reliever | Roki Sasaki | 1.10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4.03 | 1.35 | True |
| Away LAD | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Brock Stewart | 1.10 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3.45 | 1.09 | True |
| Home ATL | Starter | Tyler Mahle | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2.81 | 1.07 | True |
| Home ATL | Long Reliever | Grant Holmes | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3.80 | 1.45 | True |
| Home ATL | Middle Reliever | Dylan Dodd | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3.83 | 1.04 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away | LAD | pitcher | Starter | Tyler Glasnow | worse | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | predicted_BB | -4.0000 | deboost | better |
| away | LAD | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Brock Stewart | worse | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | predicted_SO | 4.0000 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Dylan Dodd | better | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | predicted_ER | -4.0000 | deboost | better |
| home | ATL | pitcher | Starter | Tyler Mahle | worse | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | predicted_SO | 3.0000 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | pitcher | Long Reliever | Grant Holmes | worse | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | predicted_ER | 2.0000 | boost | worse |
| away | LAD | batter | 1B | Freddie Freeman | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_H | 1.9100 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | 3B | Austin Riley | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | predicted_SO | 1.7620 | boost | worse |
| away | LAD | batter | 3B | Max Muncy | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_RBI | 1.7100 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | C | Will Smith | better | 8 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | predicted_RBI | 1.5300 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | CF | Michael Harris II | worse | 12 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 11 | predicted_AB | -1.5200 | deboost | worse |
| away | LAD | batter | LF | Teoscar Hernández | better | 10 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 2 | predicted_R | 1.4680 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | 2B | Enrique Hernández | boosted | 10 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | predicted_AB | 1.4590 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | LF | Mike Yastrzemski | better | 11 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 3 | predicted_AB | 1.3210 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | SS | Mookie Betts | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_H | -1.2300 | deboost | worse |
| away | LAD | batter | CF | Andy Pages | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 8 | predicted_H | -1.1200 | deboost | worse |
| home | ATL | batter | 2B | Ozzie Albies | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 8 | predicted_AB | -1.1000 | deboost | worse |
| home | ATL | batter | RF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | worse | 12 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | predicted_SO | 1.0540 | boost | worse |
| away | LAD | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Roki Sasaki | better | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_HR | -1.0000 | deboost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | 1B | Matt Olson | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 7 | predicted_H | -0.9400 | deboost | worse |
| home | ATL | batter | SS | Mauricio Dubón | better | 9 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | predicted_HR | 0.9240 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | DH | Shohei Ohtani | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 8 | predicted_AB | -0.8540 | deboost | worse |
| home | ATL | batter | DH | Drake Baldwin | worse | 12 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 9 | predicted_2B | 0.8530 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | RF | Kyle Tucker | worse | 9 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 6 | predicted_SO | -0.6990 | deboost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | C | Sean Murphy | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | predicted_R | 0.6390 | boost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Tyler Glasnow |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6422 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0556 |
| Avg Velo | 90.8577 |
| Avg Spin | 2625.9867 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5.1000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 4 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 5 |
| Season ERA | 3.5270 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9459 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.6920 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 6.1000 |
{
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6173,
"runs_scored": 801.0,
"runs_allowed": 600.0,
"run_differential": 201.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
"offense_index": 1.1022,
"defense_index": 1.2112,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
"run_differential": 28.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3568
},
"opponent": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 1.1609,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.156
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.2008,
"offense_edge": 0.1022,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.021,
"defense_strength": 0.2112,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1609,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0135,
"run_prevention": 0.9722,
"strikeout": 1.0043
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "607192",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "607192",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 240.0,
"k_percent": 34.0,
"bb_percent": 8.7,
"woba": 0.245,
"xwoba": 0.263,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
"avg_best_speed": 80.9446,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9414,
"whiff_percent": 32.1,
"swing_percent": 42.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.7516,
"command_and_miss": 1.135,
"regression_edge": -0.5143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4,
"barrel_edge": -0.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0714,
"whiff_edge": 0.9857,
"bb_edge": 0.125,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0556
},
"quality_score": 0.6422,
"sample_weight": 0.96,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9454,
"strikeout_factor": 1.1031,
"walk_factor": 0.9904,
"homer_factor": 0.9846,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.018,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "607192",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 0.9476,
"adjusted": 3
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 0.9476,
"adjusted": 4
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9908,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9852,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 8.0,
"factor": 1.099,
"adjusted": 9
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 56.0,
"ER": 21,
"H": 32,
"BB": 21,
"SO": 76,
"HR": 5,
"ERA": 3.375,
"WHIP": 0.9464285714285714,
"K9": 12.214285714285714,
"HR9": 0.8035714285714286,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 5,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "607192",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 90,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 90,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.85773330934553,
"release_spin_rate": 2625.986737733158,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 90,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.85773330934553,
"release_spin_rate": 2625.986737733158,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 90.8577,
"release_spin_rate": 2625.9867,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0556,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.3974,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7222,
"prior_weight": 0.2778
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "607192",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 13,
"reference_playing_time": 6.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 29.1,
"ER": 14.0,
"R": 14.0,
"H": 19.0,
"BB": 12.0,
"SO": 42.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 119.0,
"Pitches": 461.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 2.8,
"R": 2.8,
"H": 3.8,
"BB": 2.4,
"SO": 8.4,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 23.8,
"Pitches": 92.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.2955,
"WHIP": 1.0568,
"ER_per_IP": 0.47727,
"H_per_IP": 0.64773,
"BB_per_IP": 0.40909,
"SO_per_IP": 1.43182,
"HR_per_IP": 0.06818
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 56.0,
"ER": 21.0,
"R": 21.0,
"H": 32.0,
"BB": 21.0,
"SO": 76.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 217.0,
"Pitches": 858.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 2.1,
"R": 2.1,
"H": 3.2,
"BB": 2.1,
"SO": 7.6,
"HR": 0.5,
"BF": 21.7,
"Pitches": 85.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.375,
"WHIP": 0.9464,
"ER_per_IP": 0.375,
"H_per_IP": 0.57143,
"BB_per_IP": 0.375,
"SO_per_IP": 1.35714,
"HR_per_IP": 0.08929
}
},
"season": {
"games": 13,
"totals": {
"IP": 74.0,
"ER": 29.0,
"R": 29.0,
"H": 45.0,
"BB": 25.0,
"SO": 98.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 288.0,
"Pitches": 1149.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 2.2308,
"R": 2.2308,
"H": 3.4615,
"BB": 1.9231,
"SO": 7.5385,
"HR": 0.5385,
"BF": 22.1538,
"Pitches": 88.3846
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.527,
"WHIP": 0.9459,
"ER_per_IP": 0.39189,
"H_per_IP": 0.60811,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33784,
"SO_per_IP": 1.32432,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09459
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.636,
"predicted_H": 4.204,
"predicted_BB": 2.242,
"predicted_SO": 7.388,
"predicted_HR": 0.584,
"predicted_ERA": 4.0432,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0987
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4674,
"form_weight": 0.5326,
"form_reliability": 0.7222,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7222,
"prior_weight": 0.2778
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 6.0,
"final": 6.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 2.636,
"final": 2.8061,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 4.204,
"final": 4.1087,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 2.242,
"final": 3.0636,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 7.388,
"final": 6.7393,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.584,
"final": 0.3111,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.0432,
"final": 4.0432,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.0987,
"final": 1.0987,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Alex Vesia |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6990 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0789 |
| Avg Velo | 88.4549 |
| Avg Spin | 2384.6779 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.5932 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0508 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.8080 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6173,
"runs_scored": 801.0,
"runs_allowed": 600.0,
"run_differential": 201.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
"offense_index": 1.1022,
"defense_index": 1.2112,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
"run_differential": 28.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3568
},
"opponent": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 1.1609,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.156
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.2008,
"offense_edge": 0.1022,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.021,
"defense_strength": 0.2112,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1609,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0135,
"run_prevention": 0.9722,
"strikeout": 1.0043
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "681911",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "681911",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 221.0,
"k_percent": 31.2,
"bb_percent": 13.5,
"woba": 0.233,
"xwoba": 0.254,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
"avg_best_speed": 77.4874,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.7576,
"whiff_percent": 33.6,
"swing_percent": 48.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.1636,
"command_and_miss": 0.79,
"regression_edge": -0.6,
"xwoba_edge": 1.6571,
"barrel_edge": 0.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6143,
"whiff_edge": 1.2,
"bb_edge": -1.075,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0789
},
"quality_score": 0.699,
"sample_weight": 0.884,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9406,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0884,
"walk_factor": 1.076,
"homer_factor": 0.917,
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},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.9475,
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"predicted_HR": {
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}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
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"R": 0,
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"SO": 0,
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"3B": 0,
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"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
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"cold_streak": true,
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},
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"HR9": 0.0,
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},
"fielding": {
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"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-03T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "681911",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 17,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
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"release_speed": 88.45489013894718,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
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}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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}
},
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}{
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},
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},
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Roki Sasaki |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0604 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.1341 |
| Avg Velo | 92.2587 |
| Avg Spin | 1707.2249 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 4.4155 |
| Season WHIP | 1.3110 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.2500 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.2500 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6173,
"runs_scored": 801.0,
"runs_allowed": 600.0,
"run_differential": 201.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
"offense_index": 1.1022,
"defense_index": 1.2112,
"current_streak": "W3",
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"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
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"avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
"run_differential": 28.0
},
"available": true,
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},
"opponent": {
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"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 1.1609,
"current_streak": "L1",
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
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},
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},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
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"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.1022,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.021,
"defense_strength": 0.2112,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1609,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
},
"player_factors": {
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"run_prevention": 0.9722,
"strikeout": 1.0043
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "808963",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "808963",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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"metrics": {
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"bb_percent": 9.2,
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"sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.8,
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"avg_best_speed": 78.9079,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.4308,
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"swing_percent": 50.1
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"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 0.3214,
"regression_edge": 0.6,
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"barrel_edge": -0.5778,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.7,
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"bb_edge": 0.0,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1341
},
"quality_score": -0.0604,
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"strikeout_factor": 1.0343,
"walk_factor": 1.0,
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"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "808963",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 1.0051,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 1.0051,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 1.0,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 1.0794,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"H": 31,
"BB": 16,
"SO": 39,
"HR": 3,
"ERA": 3.1061946902654864,
"WHIP": 1.247787610619469,
"K9": 9.31858407079646,
"HR9": 0.7168141592920353,
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"quality_starts": 3,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
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"latest_game_date": "2026-10-04T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "808963",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.9578,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
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"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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},
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},
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},
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"player_id": "808963",
"report_date": "20261007",
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"windows": {
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},
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},
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}
},
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},
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},
"rates": {
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"HR_per_IP": 0.07965
}
},
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"H": 113.0,
"BB": 50.0,
"SO": 124.0,
"HR": 22.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"R": 2.3333,
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},
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}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
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}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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},
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 2.2,
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},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.213,
"final": 1.1244,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 2.481,
"final": 1.8649,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.179,
"final": 0.6885,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 2.917,
"final": 2.1195,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.331,
"final": 0.6093,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.0252,
"final": 4.0252,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3499,
"final": 1.3499,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Brock Stewart |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.4068 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 4 |
| Season ERA | 2.2500 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9286 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9640 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6173,
"runs_scored": 801.0,
"runs_allowed": 600.0,
"run_differential": 201.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
"offense_index": 1.1022,
"defense_index": 1.2112,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
"run_differential": 28.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3568
},
"opponent": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 1.1609,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.156
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.2008,
"offense_edge": 0.1022,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.021,
"defense_strength": 0.2112,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1609,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0135,
"run_prevention": 0.9722,
"strikeout": 1.0043
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "592779",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "592779",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 86.0,
"k_percent": 24.3,
"bb_percent": 9.7,
"woba": 0.258,
"xwoba": 0.248,
"sweet_spot_percent": 23.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 27.9,
"avg_best_speed": 65.8762,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.3881,
"whiff_percent": 28.2,
"swing_percent": 49.2
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.4394,
"command_and_miss": 0.2664,
"regression_edge": 0.2857,
"xwoba_edge": 1.8286,
"barrel_edge": 0.6222,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.4286,
"whiff_edge": 0.4286,
"bb_edge": -0.125,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"quality_score": 0.4068,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9654,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0134,
"walk_factor": 1.0045,
"homer_factor": 0.9272,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.01,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "592779",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9844,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9844,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.002,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9672,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.006,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 8.0,
"ER": 1,
"H": 4,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 7,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 1.125,
"WHIP": 0.75,
"K9": 7.875,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 9,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-04T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "592779",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 5.782,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5363,
"prior_weight": 0.4637
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "592779",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 29,
"reference_playing_time": 0.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 16.0,
"Pitches": 57.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.2,
"Pitches": 11.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.0769,
"WHIP": 0.6923,
"ER_per_IP": 0.23077,
"H_per_IP": 0.46154,
"BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
"SO_per_IP": 1.15385,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.0,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 4.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 8.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 34.0,
"Pitches": 125.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.7,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 0.8,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.4,
"Pitches": 12.5
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.0,
"WHIP": 1.0,
"ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
"H_per_IP": 0.77778,
"BB_per_IP": 0.22222,
"SO_per_IP": 0.88889,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 29,
"totals": {
"IP": 28.0,
"ER": 7.0,
"R": 9.0,
"H": 16.0,
"BB": 10.0,
"SO": 26.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 106.0,
"Pitches": 393.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2414,
"R": 0.3103,
"H": 0.5517,
"BB": 0.3448,
"SO": 0.8966,
"HR": 0.069,
"BF": 3.6552,
"Pitches": 13.5517
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.25,
"WHIP": 0.9286,
"ER_per_IP": 0.25,
"H_per_IP": 0.57143,
"BB_per_IP": 0.35714,
"SO_per_IP": 0.92857,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07143
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.324,
"predicted_H": 0.656,
"predicted_BB": 0.264,
"predicted_SO": 0.827,
"predicted_HR": 0.065,
"predicted_ERA": 3.4501,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0876
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5459,
"form_weight": 0.4541,
"form_reliability": 0.5363,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 5.782,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5363,
"prior_weight": 0.4637
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.2,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.324,
"final": 0.1471,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.656,
"final": 0.2979,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.264,
"final": 0.1199,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.827,
"final": 0.3755,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.065,
"final": 0.0295,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.4501,
"final": 3.4501,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.0876,
"final": 1.0876,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.202 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.191 | 0.000 | -0.191 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.960 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.061 | 5.000 | -0.061 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.248 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.260 | 0.400 | -0.260 | -0.400 |
| predicted_BB | 0.379 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.359 | 0.000 | 0.641 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.018 | 0.000 | -0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.230 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 1.057 | 2.000 | -1.057 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.197 | 0.000 | -0.197 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.323 | 0.400 | -0.123 | -0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.565 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.621 | 0.000 | 0.379 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.460 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.606 | 0.000 | -0.606 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.453 | 0.400 | -0.453 | -0.400 |
| predicted_SO | 0.468 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.489 | 1.000 | 0.511 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3790 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6210, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.2300 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.2300, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_SO: 0.4680 -> 0.5371 (boost 0.0691, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.9600 -> 4.4343 (deboost -0.5257, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3359 -> 0.3174 (deboost -0.0185, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | - | predicted_SO: 0.5317 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5317, better) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.036 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5228 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4772, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 0.5243 (boost 0.5243, worse) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.4993 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5007, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3120 -> 0.3510 (boost 0.0390, better) | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "605141",
"player_name": "Mookie Betts",
"position": "SS",
"team": "LAD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.202,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.96,
"predicted_AVG": 0.248,
"predicted_BB": 0.379,
"predicted_H": 1.23,
"predicted_HR": 0.18,
"predicted_OBP": 0.337,
"predicted_R": 0.565,
"predicted_RBI": 0.46,
"predicted_SLG": 0.401,
"predicted_SO": 0.468
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1833,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.4343,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2477,
"predicted_BB": 0.4246,
"predicted_H": 1.0988,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.1752,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3359,
"predicted_R": 0.5085,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4383,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4117,
"predicted_SO": 0.5371
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.96,
"after": 4.4343,
"delta": -0.5257,
"percent_delta": -0.106,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.23,
"after": 1.0988,
"delta": -0.1312,
"percent_delta": -0.1067,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.565,
"after": 0.5085,
"delta": -0.0565,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.4117,
"delta": 0.0107,
"percent_delta": 0.0267,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.468,
"after": 0.5371,
"delta": 0.0691,
"percent_delta": 0.1476,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.468,
"after": 0.5371,
"delta": 0.0691,
"percent_delta": 0.1476,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.96,
"after": 4.4343,
"delta": -0.5257,
"percent_delta": -0.106,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 124
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1833,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.4343,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2514,
"predicted_BB": 0.4289,
"predicted_H": 1.1146,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.1763,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3174,
"predicted_R": 0.5228,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4506,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4121,
"predicted_SO": 0.5317
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3359,
"after": 0.3174,
"delta": -0.0185,
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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"index": 11,
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},
{
"index": 12,
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},
{
"index": 13,
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},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
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},
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},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
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"total_change": {
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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"delta": 0.053,
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.202 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.960 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.248 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.379 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.230 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.565 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.460 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.468 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | -0.019 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.434 | -0.526 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.248 | -0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.425 | 0.046 |
| predicted_H | 1.099 | -0.131 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.175 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.508 | -0.056 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.438 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.412 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.537 | 0.069 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.434 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.429 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 1.115 | 0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.176 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.317 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 0.523 | 0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.451 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.412 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.532 | -0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.036
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.183 | 0.183 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.308 | 0.308 |
| H | 0.963 | -0.037 |
| HR | 0.166 | 0.166 |
| RBI | 0.499 | 0.499 |
| SO | 0.524 | 0.524 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.183 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.251 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.308 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.037 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| OBP | 0.312 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.501 |
| SLG | 0.433 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.524 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.183 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.434 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | -0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.429 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.115 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.176 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.523 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.549 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.433 | 0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.532 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.251 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.312 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.433 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.2353 | 0.3500 | 0.4118 | 0.2353 | 0.0588 | 0.0588 | 0.1765 | 0.2941 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 0.2222 | 0.3488 | 0.3611 | 0.2222 | 0.0278 | 0.0556 | 0.1944 | 0.1667 |
| season | 0.60 | 124 | - | 485.000 | 126.000 | 25.000 | 0.000 | 23.000 | 69.000 | 70.000 | 47.000 | 58.000 | 0.2598 | 0.3271 | 0.4536 | 0.2598 | 0.0474 | 0.1423 | 0.0969 | 0.1196 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1590 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7500 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2474 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4840 |
| predicted_H | 0.9280 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1690 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3344 |
| predicted_R | 0.4350 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4100 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4257 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6270 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2020 | 0.1590 | 0.1833 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.9600 | 3.7500 | 4.4343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 | 0.2474 | 0.2477 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3790 | 0.4840 | 0.4246 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2300 | 0.9280 | 1.0988 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0110 | 0.0110 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1800 | 0.1690 | 0.1752 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3370 | 0.3344 | 0.3359 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5650 | 0.4350 | 0.5085 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4600 | 0.4100 | 0.4383 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4010 | 0.4257 | 0.4117 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4680 | 0.6270 | 0.5371 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 493 |
| Season rows before report date | 493 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 124 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.4 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 605141 |
| playerID | 605141 |
| playerName | Mookie Betts |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 11.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.338 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.339 |
| sl_xba | 0.278 |
| sl_xslg | 0.435 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 40.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 12.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.206 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.228 | 0.000 | -0.228 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.230 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.805 | 4.000 | 1.195 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.259 | 0.600 | 0.600 | Hitting_AVG | 0.293 | 0.250 | 0.307 | 0.350 |
| predicted_BB | 0.439 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.493 | 1.000 | -0.493 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.090 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_H | 1.113 | 1.000 | 1.887 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.113 | 1.000 | -0.113 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.340 | 0.600 | 0.600 | Hitting_OBP | 0.375 | 0.400 | 0.225 | 0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.497 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.541 | 1.000 | 0.459 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.520 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.491 | 1.000 | -0.491 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.467 | 0.600 | 0.600 | Hitting_SLG | 0.445 | 1.000 | 0.155 | -0.400 |
| predicted_SO | 0.748 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.753 | 1.000 | 1.247 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.0900 -> 3.0000 (boost 1.9100, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.5200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 4.2300 -> 4.0371 (deboost -0.1929, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4610 -> 0.4816 (boost 0.0206, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.7673 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2327, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.5041 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5041, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.054 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.421) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5042 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4958, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5212 (boost 0.5212, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7293 (deboost -0.2707, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 10 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | predicted_2B: 0.1859 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8141, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2850 -> 0.2710 (deboost -0.0140, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "518692",
"player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
"position": "1B",
"team": "LAD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.206,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 4.23,
"predicted_AVG": 0.259,
"predicted_BB": 0.439,
"predicted_H": 1.09,
"predicted_HR": 0.26,
"predicted_OBP": 0.34,
"predicted_R": 0.497,
"predicted_RBI": 0.52,
"predicted_SLG": 0.467,
"predicted_SO": 0.748
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.171,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 4.0371,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2628,
"predicted_BB": 0.4136,
"predicted_H": 1.0568,
"predicted_HBP": 0.02,
"predicted_HR": 0.2289,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3378,
"predicted_R": 0.4904,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4903,
"predicted_SLG": 0.461,
"predicted_SO": 0.7751
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.23,
"after": 4.0371,
"delta": -0.1929,
"percent_delta": -0.0456,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.467,
"after": 0.461,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.0128,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.23,
"after": 4.0371,
"delta": -0.1929,
"percent_delta": -0.0456,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 155
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.171,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 4.0371,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2655,
"predicted_BB": 0.4178,
"predicted_H": 1.072,
"predicted_HBP": 0.02,
"predicted_HR": 0.2303,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3344,
"predicted_R": 0.5042,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5041,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4816,
"predicted_SO": 0.7673
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.461,
"after": 0.4816,
"delta": 0.0206,
"percent_delta": 0.0447,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.461,
"after": 0.4816,
"delta": 0.0206,
"percent_delta": 0.0447,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.054",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.171,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.171,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4178,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4178,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.421)",
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"weights": {
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}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
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},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged",
"stats": {
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},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
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"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
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"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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},
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},
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],
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.035,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.206 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.230 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.259 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.439 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.090 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.340 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.497 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.520 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.467 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.748 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | -0.035 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.037 | -0.193 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.414 | -0.025 |
| predicted_H | 1.057 | -0.033 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.229 | -0.031 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.338 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.490 | -0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.490 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.461 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.775 | 0.027 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.037 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.418 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 1.072 | 0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.230 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.504 | 0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.504 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.482 | 0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 0.767 | -0.008 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.054
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.421)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.186 | 0.186 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.383 | 0.383 |
| H | 1.115 | 0.115 |
| HR | 0.139 | 0.139 |
| RBI | 0.521 | 0.521 |
| SO | 0.729 | -0.271 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.814 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.285 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.617 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.115 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.139 |
| OBP | 0.354 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.479 |
| SLG | 0.443 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.271 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 1.000 | 0.829 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.037 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.285 | 0.019 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.582 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.072 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.230 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.354 | 0.020 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.504 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.496 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.443 | -0.039 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.233 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.285 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.354 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.443 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.2222 | 0.3000 | 0.5556 | 0.2222 | 0.1111 | 0.1111 | 0.1111 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2857 | 0.4000 | 0.2500 | 0.0500 | 0.1250 | 0.0500 | 0.2500 |
| season | 0.60 | 155 | - | 586.000 | 170.000 | 32.000 | 1.000 | 18.000 | 70.000 | 77.000 | 68.000 | 116.000 | 0.2901 | 0.3654 | 0.4403 | 0.2901 | 0.0307 | 0.1195 | 0.1160 | 0.1979 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1260 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7890 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2676 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3810 |
| predicted_H | 1.0140 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0200 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1890 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3350 |
| predicted_R | 0.4820 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4520 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4532 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8100 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2060 | 0.1260 | 0.1710 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.2300 | 3.7890 | 4.0371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2590 | 0.2676 | 0.2628 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4390 | 0.3810 | 0.4136 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0900 | 1.0140 | 1.0568 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0200 | 0.0200 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2600 | 0.1890 | 0.2289 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3400 | 0.3350 | 0.3378 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4970 | 0.4820 | 0.4904 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5200 | 0.4520 | 0.4903 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4670 | 0.4532 | 0.4610 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7480 | 0.8100 | 0.7751 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 627 |
| Season rows before report date | 627 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 155 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 3 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 518692 |
| playerID | 518692 |
| playerName | Freddie Freeman |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.348 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.363 |
| sl_xba | 0.29 |
| sl_xslg | 0.463 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.123 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.156 | 0.000 | -0.156 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.100 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.598 | 4.000 | 1.402 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.251 | 0.250 | -0.051 | -0.050 |
| predicted_BB | 0.438 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.492 | 0.000 | -0.492 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.030 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.902 | 1.000 | 0.098 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.121 | 0.000 | 0.879 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.345 | 0.250 | -0.145 | -0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.479 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.531 | 0.000 | 0.469 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.523 | 0.000 | 1.477 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.433 | 0.800 | 0.800 | Hitting_SLG | 0.395 | 0.250 | 0.405 | 0.550 |
| predicted_SO | 0.685 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.688 | 3.000 | -0.688 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.4700 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.5300, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6850 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6850, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | predicted_SO: 0.6850 -> 0.7589 (boost 0.0739, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.1000 -> 3.8552 (deboost -0.2448, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3235 -> 0.3299 (boost 0.0064, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.7512 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2488, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4398 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4398, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.042 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4751 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4751, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4856 (boost 0.4856, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.6988 (deboost -0.3012, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.6988 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3012, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4856 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4856, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3230 -> 0.3370 (boost 0.0140, better) | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669257",
"player_name": "Will Smith",
"position": "C",
"team": "LAD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.123,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.1,
"predicted_AVG": 0.251,
"predicted_BB": 0.438,
"predicted_H": 1.03,
"predicted_HR": 0.19,
"predicted_OBP": 0.318,
"predicted_R": 0.479,
"predicted_RBI": 0.47,
"predicted_SLG": 0.433,
"predicted_SO": 0.685
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.107,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.8552,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2567,
"predicted_BB": 0.3983,
"predicted_H": 0.9882,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.1706,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3235,
"predicted_R": 0.4621,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4278,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4241,
"predicted_SO": 0.7589
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1,
"after": 3.8552,
"delta": -0.2448,
"percent_delta": -0.0597,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.251,
"after": 0.2567,
"delta": 0.0057,
"percent_delta": 0.0227,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.318,
"after": 0.3235,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0173,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.433,
"after": 0.4241,
"delta": -0.0089,
"percent_delta": -0.0206,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.685,
"after": 0.7589,
"delta": 0.0739,
"percent_delta": 0.1079,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.685,
"after": 0.7589,
"delta": 0.0739,
"percent_delta": 0.1079,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1,
"after": 3.8552,
"delta": -0.2448,
"percent_delta": -0.0597,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 73
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.107,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.8552,
"predicted_AVG": 0.26,
"predicted_BB": 0.4023,
"predicted_H": 1.0024,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.1717,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3299,
"predicted_R": 0.4751,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4398,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4216,
"predicted_SO": 0.7512
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3235,
"after": 0.3299,
"delta": 0.0064,
"percent_delta": 0.0198,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3235,
"after": 0.3299,
"delta": 0.0064,
"percent_delta": 0.0198,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.042",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.107,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.107,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8552,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.1448,
"percent_delta": 0.0376,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
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},
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"summary": {
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)",
"stats": {
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},
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"weights": {
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"bvp": 0.1
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0086,
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},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
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},
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},
{
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}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.252,
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
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}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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{
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}
],
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}
}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.253,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
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"predicted_H": 1.0,
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"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.337,
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"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
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"predicted_TB": 4.0
},
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],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
{
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},
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},
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],
"summary": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.123 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.100 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.438 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.030 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.479 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.433 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.685 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.107 | -0.016 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.855 | -0.245 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.257 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.398 | -0.040 |
| predicted_H | 0.988 | -0.042 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.171 | -0.019 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.462 | -0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | -0.042 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.759 | 0.074 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.107 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.855 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.402 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 1.002 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.172 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.330 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.475 | 0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.422 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.751 | -0.008 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.042
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.159 | 0.159 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.354 | 0.354 |
| H | 0.932 | -0.068 |
| HR | 0.158 | 0.158 |
| RBI | 0.486 | 0.486 |
| SO | 0.699 | -0.301 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.252 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.354 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.068 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.158 |
| OBP | 0.323 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.486 |
| SLG | 0.428 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.301 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.107 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.145 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.252 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.402 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.002 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.172 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.323 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.475 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.440 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.428 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.249 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.252 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.323 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.428 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 0.2632 | 0.2632 | 0.2632 | 0.2632 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.3684 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 0.3143 | 0.3846 | 0.5714 | 0.3143 | 0.0857 | 0.1143 | 0.1143 | 0.2571 |
| season | 0.60 | 73 | - | 247.000 | 62.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 10.000 | 33.000 | 35.000 | 32.000 | 50.000 | 0.2510 | 0.3404 | 0.4089 | 0.2510 | 0.0405 | 0.1336 | 0.1295 | 0.2024 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0850 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5200 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2644 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3440 |
| predicted_H | 0.9310 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0260 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1440 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3311 |
| predicted_R | 0.4390 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3700 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4118 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8600 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1230 | 0.0850 | 0.1070 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.1000 | 3.5200 | 3.8552 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2510 | 0.2644 | 0.2567 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4380 | 0.3440 | 0.3983 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0300 | 0.9310 | 0.9882 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0260 | 0.0260 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1900 | 0.1440 | 0.1706 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3180 | 0.3311 | 0.3235 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4790 | 0.4390 | 0.4621 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4700 | 0.3700 | 0.4278 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4330 | 0.4118 | 0.4241 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6850 | 0.8600 | 0.7589 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 256 |
| Season rows before report date | 256 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 73 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 3 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669257 |
| playerID | 669257 |
| playerName | Will Smith |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.345 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.389 |
| sl_xba | 0.279 |
| sl_xslg | 0.502 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 43.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 20.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 16.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.182 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.185 | 0.000 | -0.185 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.029 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.033 | 0.000 | -0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.854 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.899 | 2.000 | -0.899 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.273 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.279 | 0.000 | 0.055 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.599 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.638 | 1.000 | 0.362 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.051 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.086 | 0.000 | -0.086 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.219 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.230 | 0.000 | -0.230 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.370 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.384 | 0.333 | 0.116 | 0.167 |
| predicted_R | 0.642 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.688 | 0.000 | 0.312 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.577 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.630 | 0.000 | -0.630 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.506 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.520 | 0.000 | -0.186 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 1.124 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.136 | 1.000 | -0.136 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.5990 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4010, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.8540 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.8540, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | - | predicted_R: 0.6420 -> 0.5381 (deboost -0.1039, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.5464 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4536, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4985 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4985, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.047 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.083) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5532 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4468, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4714 (boost 0.4714, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.9257 (deboost -0.0743, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 6 | predicted_BB: 0.4591 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5409, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4714 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4714, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2460 -> 0.2380 (deboost -0.0080, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "660271",
"player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
"position": "DH",
"team": "LAD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.182,
"predicted_3B": 0.029,
"predicted_AB": 3.854,
"predicted_AVG": 0.273,
"predicted_BB": 0.599,
"predicted_H": 1.051,
"predicted_HR": 0.219,
"predicted_OBP": 0.37,
"predicted_R": 0.642,
"predicted_RBI": 0.577,
"predicted_SLG": 0.506,
"predicted_SO": 1.124
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1593,
"predicted_3B": 0.0238,
"predicted_AB": 3.8274,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2608,
"predicted_BB": 0.5409,
"predicted_H": 0.9977,
"predicted_HBP": 0.049,
"predicted_HR": 0.1797,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3534,
"predicted_R": 0.5381,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4849,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4557,
"predicted_SO": 1.1559
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.273,
"after": 0.2608,
"delta": -0.0122,
"percent_delta": -0.0447,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.599,
"after": 0.5409,
"delta": -0.0581,
"percent_delta": -0.097,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.051,
"after": 0.9977,
"delta": -0.0533,
"percent_delta": -0.0507,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.3534,
"delta": -0.0166,
"percent_delta": -0.0449,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.642,
"after": 0.5381,
"delta": -0.1039,
"percent_delta": -0.1618,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.577,
"after": 0.4849,
"delta": -0.0921,
"percent_delta": -0.1596,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.506,
"after": 0.4557,
"delta": -0.0503,
"percent_delta": -0.0994,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.642,
"after": 0.5381,
"delta": -0.1039,
"percent_delta": -0.1618,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 137
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1593,
"predicted_3B": 0.0238,
"predicted_AB": 3.8274,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2644,
"predicted_BB": 0.5464,
"predicted_H": 1.0121,
"predicted_HBP": 0.049,
"predicted_HR": 0.1808,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3563,
"predicted_R": 0.5532,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4985,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4602,
"predicted_SO": 1.1442
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.047",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1593,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1593,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8274,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.1726,
"percent_delta": 0.0451,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5464,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4536,
"percent_delta": 0.8302,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1808,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1808,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4985,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4985,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1442,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1442,
"percent_delta": -0.126,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5464,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4536,
"percent_delta": 0.8302,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4985,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4985,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.083)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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"weights": {
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"bvp": 0.1143
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
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{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0153,
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"predicted_H": 0.9257,
"predicted_HR": 0.1811,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4714,
"predicted_SO": 1.0124
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{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.246,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.44,
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
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},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.246,
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
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"summary": {
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.238,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.331,
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"predicted_SB": 0.0,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.435,
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"predicted_TB": 1.0
},
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],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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"delta": -0.071,
"percent_delta": -0.1403,
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},
{
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"before": 1.124,
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],
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.182 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.029 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.854 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.273 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.599 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.051 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.219 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.370 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.642 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.577 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.506 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.124 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | -0.023 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.827 | -0.027 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.261 | -0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.541 | -0.058 |
| predicted_H | 0.998 | -0.053 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.049 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | -0.039 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.353 | -0.017 |
| predicted_R | 0.538 | -0.104 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.485 | -0.092 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.456 | -0.050 |
| predicted_SO | 1.156 | 0.032 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.827 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.546 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 1.012 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.049 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.181 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.356 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.553 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.498 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.460 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 1.144 | -0.012 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.047
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.083)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.155 | 0.155 |
| 3B | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| BB | 0.459 | 0.459 |
| H | 0.926 | -0.074 |
| HR | 0.181 | 0.181 |
| RBI | 0.471 | 0.471 |
| SO | 1.012 | 0.012 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.246 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.541 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.074 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.181 |
| OBP | 0.333 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.471 |
| SLG | 0.440 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.012 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.024 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.173 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | -0.018 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.454 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.012 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.181 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | -0.023 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.447 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.498 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.440 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.144 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.246 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.333 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.440 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.2222 | 0.2632 | 0.2222 | 0.2222 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.2778 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 17.000 | 0.1842 | 0.2791 | 0.2105 | 0.1842 | 0.0000 | 0.0263 | 0.1053 | 0.4474 |
| season | 0.60 | 137 | - | 528.000 | 144.000 | 25.000 | 4.000 | 30.000 | 79.000 | 88.000 | 82.000 | 154.000 | 0.2727 | 0.3746 | 0.5057 | 0.2727 | 0.0568 | 0.1496 | 0.1553 | 0.2917 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1300 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7930 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2450 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4660 |
| predicted_H | 0.9290 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0490 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1290 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3319 |
| predicted_R | 0.4040 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3660 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3908 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1970 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1820 | 0.1300 | 0.1593 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0290 | 0.0170 | 0.0238 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8540 | 3.7930 | 3.8274 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2730 | 0.2450 | 0.2608 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5990 | 0.4660 | 0.5409 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0510 | 0.9290 | 0.9977 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0490 | 0.0490 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2190 | 0.1290 | 0.1797 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3700 | 0.3319 | 0.3534 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6420 | 0.4040 | 0.5381 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5770 | 0.3660 | 0.4849 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5060 | 0.3908 | 0.4557 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1240 | 1.1970 | 1.1559 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 605 |
| Season rows before report date | 605 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 137 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 660271 |
| playerID | 660271 |
| playerName | Shohei Ohtani |
| pos | TWP |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.377 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.397 |
| sl_xba | 0.286 |
| sl_xslg | 0.552 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 16.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 52.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 93.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.135 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.139 | 0.000 | -0.139 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.040 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.664 | 4.000 | -0.664 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.265 | 0.000 | 0.068 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.325 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.375 | 0.000 | 0.625 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.920 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.972 | 0.000 | 0.028 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.870 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.276 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.336 | 0.000 | 0.164 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.532 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_R | 0.553 | 0.000 | 1.447 | 2.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.520 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.549 | 0.000 | 0.451 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.418 | 1.333 | 1.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.419 | 0.000 | 0.914 | 1.333 |
| predicted_SO | 1.087 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.091 | 0.000 | -0.091 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 8 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.5320 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4680, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.0400 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2280 -> 0.2359 (boost 0.0079, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0400 -> 3.8554 (deboost -0.1846, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2820 -> 0.2892 (boost 0.0072, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4203 -> 0.4153 (deboost -0.0050, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.8554 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.1446, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.5043 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5043, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.043 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5407 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4593, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4812 (boost 0.4812, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_OBP: 0.2892 -> 0.3170 (boost 0.0278, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4812 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4812, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "606192",
"player_name": "Teoscar Hernández",
"position": "LF",
"team": "LAD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.135,
"predicted_3B": 0.016,
"predicted_AB": 4.04,
"predicted_AVG": 0.228,
"predicted_BB": 0.325,
"predicted_H": 0.92,
"predicted_HR": 0.18,
"predicted_OBP": 0.276,
"predicted_R": 0.532,
"predicted_RBI": 0.52,
"predicted_SLG": 0.418,
"predicted_SO": 1.087
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1385,
"predicted_3B": 0.0134,
"predicted_AB": 3.8554,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2359,
"predicted_BB": 0.2713,
"predicted_H": 0.907,
"predicted_HBP": 0.038,
"predicted_HR": 0.1709,
"predicted_OBP": 0.282,
"predicted_R": 0.5259,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4905,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4203,
"predicted_SO": 1.1078
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.04,
"after": 3.8554,
"delta": -0.1846,
"percent_delta": -0.0457,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.228,
"after": 0.2359,
"delta": 0.0079,
"percent_delta": 0.0346,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.2713,
"delta": -0.0537,
"percent_delta": -0.1652,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.282,
"delta": 0.006,
"percent_delta": 0.0217,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.228,
"after": 0.2359,
"delta": 0.0079,
"percent_delta": 0.0346,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.04,
"after": 3.8554,
"delta": -0.1846,
"percent_delta": -0.0457,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 126
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1385,
"predicted_3B": 0.0134,
"predicted_AB": 3.8554,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2386,
"predicted_BB": 0.274,
"predicted_H": 0.9201,
"predicted_HBP": 0.038,
"predicted_HR": 0.172,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2892,
"predicted_R": 0.5407,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5043,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4153,
"predicted_SO": 1.0966
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.282,
"after": 0.2892,
"delta": 0.0072,
"percent_delta": 0.0255,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4203,
"after": 0.4153,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0119,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.282,
"after": 0.2892,
"delta": 0.0072,
"percent_delta": 0.0255,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4203,
"after": 0.4153,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0119,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.043",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1385,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1385,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8554,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.1446,
"percent_delta": 0.0375,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.274,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.274,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9201,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0799,
"percent_delta": 0.0868,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.172,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.172,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5043,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5043,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0966,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0966,
"percent_delta": -0.0881,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8554,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.1446,
"percent_delta": 0.0375,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5043,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5043,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.9077,
"bvp": 0.0923
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.5407,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4593,
"percent_delta": 0.8495,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1598,
"predicted_3B": 0.0116,
"predicted_BB": 0.2797,
"predicted_H": 0.9516,
"predicted_HR": 0.1341,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4812,
"predicted_SO": 1.0569
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1341,
"delta": 0.1341,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.4812,
"delta": 0.4812,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0569,
"delta": 0.0569,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.4812,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.259,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.317,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.419,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.1598,
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"delta": -0.1598,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2386,
"after": 0.259,
"delta": 0.0204,
"percent_delta": 0.0855,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.2797,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2797,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2892,
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"delta": 0.0278,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.4812,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4812,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0569,
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"delta": -0.0569,
"percent_delta": -0.0538,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.4812,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.259,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.317,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.419,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.259,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.317,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.419,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.259,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.317,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.419,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 4.0
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.135,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.135,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.04,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.04,
"percent_delta": -0.2574,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.228,
"after": 0.259,
"delta": 0.031,
"percent_delta": 0.136,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.675,
"percent_delta": 2.0769,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.92,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.08,
"percent_delta": 0.087,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.82,
"percent_delta": 4.5556,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.317,
"delta": 0.041,
"percent_delta": 0.1486,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.532,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.468,
"percent_delta": 2.7594,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.52,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.48,
"percent_delta": 0.9231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.087,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.087,
"percent_delta": -0.08,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"delta": 1.468,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 4.04,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.04,
"percent_delta": -0.2574,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.135 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.040 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.325 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.920 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.276 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.532 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.520 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.418 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.087 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.139 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.855 | -0.185 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.271 | -0.054 |
| predicted_H | 0.907 | -0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.038 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.171 | -0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.282 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.526 | -0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.490 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.420 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 1.108 | 0.021 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.139 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.855 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.274 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.920 | 0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.038 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.172 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.541 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.504 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.415 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 1.097 | -0.011 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.043
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.160 | 0.160 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.280 | 0.280 |
| H | 0.952 | -0.048 |
| HR | 0.134 | 0.134 |
| RBI | 0.481 | 0.481 |
| SO | 1.057 | 0.057 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.160 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.259 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.280 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.048 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.134 |
| OBP | 0.317 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.481 |
| SLG | 0.419 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.057 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.139 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.145 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.259 | 0.020 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.274 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.172 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.317 | 0.028 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.459 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.504 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.097 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.259 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.317 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.419 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.3889 | 0.1667 | 0.0556 | 0.1111 | 0.0000 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 13.000 | 0.2703 | 0.2895 | 0.4595 | 0.2703 | 0.0541 | 0.0811 | 0.0000 | 0.3513 |
| season | 0.60 | 126 | - | 450.000 | 119.000 | 17.000 | 2.000 | 17.000 | 65.000 | 67.000 | 41.000 | 137.000 | 0.2644 | 0.3293 | 0.4244 | 0.2644 | 0.0378 | 0.1444 | 0.0911 | 0.3044 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1430 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6140 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2462 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2010 |
| predicted_H | 0.8900 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0380 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1590 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2898 |
| predicted_R | 0.5180 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4520 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4233 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1350 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1350 | 0.1430 | 0.1385 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 | 0.0100 | 0.0134 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.0400 | 3.6140 | 3.8554 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2280 | 0.2462 | 0.2359 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3250 | 0.2010 | 0.2713 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9200 | 0.8900 | 0.9070 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0380 | 0.0380 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1800 | 0.1590 | 0.1709 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2760 | 0.2898 | 0.2820 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5320 | 0.5180 | 0.5259 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5200 | 0.4520 | 0.4905 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4180 | 0.4233 | 0.4203 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0870 | 1.1350 | 1.1078 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 461 |
| Season rows before report date | 461 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 126 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 2 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 606192 |
| playerID | 606192 |
| playerName | Teoscar Hernández |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.332 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.332 |
| sl_xba | 0.256 |
| sl_xslg | 0.437 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 32.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.173 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.175 | 0.000 | -0.175 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.280 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.520 | 1.000 | 0.480 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.260 | 0.000 | -0.010 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.427 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.485 | 0.000 | -0.485 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.380 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.914 | 0.000 | 0.086 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.227 | 0.000 | -0.227 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.357 | 0.000 | -0.107 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.547 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.610 | 0.000 | -0.610 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.587 | 0.000 | 1.413 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.547 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.508 | 0.000 | -0.258 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.947 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.017 | 1.000 | 0.983 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.2900 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.7100, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.5470 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5470, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.3800 -> 0.5724 (boost 0.1924, better) | predicted_SO: 0.9470 -> 0.8756 (deboost -0.0714, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5483 -> 0.4172 (deboost -0.1311, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.2535 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.7465, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4080 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4080, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.059 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.316) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5641 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4359, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4965 (boost 0.4965, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.9133 (deboost -0.0867, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | predicted_HR: 0.1839 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8161, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1671 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1671, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "571970",
"player_name": "Max Muncy",
"position": "3B",
"team": "LAD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.173,
"predicted_3B": 0.007,
"predicted_AB": 3.28,
"predicted_AVG": 0.227,
"predicted_BB": 0.427,
"predicted_H": 0.38,
"predicted_HR": 0.15,
"predicted_OBP": 0.313,
"predicted_R": 0.547,
"predicted_RBI": 0.29,
"predicted_SLG": 0.547,
"predicted_SO": 0.947
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1865,
"predicted_3B": 0.0057,
"predicted_AB": 3.2535,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2393,
"predicted_BB": 0.4039,
"predicted_H": 0.5724,
"predicted_HBP": 0.028,
"predicted_HR": 0.1918,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3234,
"predicted_R": 0.5487,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3696,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5483,
"predicted_SO": 0.8756
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.227,
"after": 0.2393,
"delta": 0.0123,
"percent_delta": 0.0542,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.5724,
"delta": 0.1924,
"percent_delta": 0.5063,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.313,
"after": 0.3234,
"delta": 0.0104,
"percent_delta": 0.0332,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.3696,
"delta": 0.0796,
"percent_delta": 0.2745,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.947,
"after": 0.8756,
"delta": -0.0714,
"percent_delta": -0.0754,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 0.5724,
"delta": 0.1924,
"percent_delta": 0.5063,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.947,
"after": 0.8756,
"delta": -0.0714,
"percent_delta": -0.0754,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 150
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1865,
"predicted_3B": 0.0057,
"predicted_AB": 3.2535,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1785,
"predicted_BB": 0.408,
"predicted_H": 0.5806,
"predicted_HBP": 0.028,
"predicted_HR": 0.193,
"predicted_OBP": 0.27,
"predicted_R": 0.5641,
"predicted_RBI": 0.38,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4172,
"predicted_SO": 0.8668
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2393,
"after": 0.1785,
"delta": -0.0608,
"percent_delta": -0.2541,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3234,
"after": 0.27,
"delta": -0.0534,
"percent_delta": -0.1651,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5483,
"after": 0.4172,
"delta": -0.1311,
"percent_delta": -0.2391,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.5483,
"after": 0.4172,
"delta": -0.1311,
"percent_delta": -0.2391,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.059",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1865,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1865,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2535,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.7465,
"percent_delta": 0.2294,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.408,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.408,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5806,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4194,
"percent_delta": 0.7224,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.193,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.193,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.38,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8668,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1332,
"percent_delta": 0.1537,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.2535,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.7465,
"percent_delta": 0.2294,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.408,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.408,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.316)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {
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"bvp": 0.1551
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5641,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4359,
"percent_delta": 0.7727,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.5641,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4359,
"percent_delta": 0.7727,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1671,
"predicted_3B": 0.0087,
"predicted_BB": 0.381,
"predicted_H": 0.9133,
"predicted_HR": 0.1839,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4965,
"predicted_SO": 0.9664
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1671,
"delta": 0.1671,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.381,
"delta": 0.381,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.9133,
"delta": -0.0867,
"percent_delta": -0.0867,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1839,
"delta": 0.1839,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.4965,
"delta": 0.4965,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.4965,
"delta": 0.4965,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.9133,
"delta": -0.0867,
"percent_delta": -0.0867,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.256,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.462,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1671,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1671,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1785,
"after": 0.256,
"delta": 0.0775,
"percent_delta": 0.4342,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.381,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.619,
"percent_delta": 1.6247,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9133,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0867,
"percent_delta": 0.0949,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1839,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.8161,
"percent_delta": 4.4377,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.063,
"percent_delta": 0.2333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4965,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5035,
"percent_delta": 1.0141,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4172,
"after": 0.462,
"delta": 0.0448,
"percent_delta": 0.1074,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.1839,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.8161,
"percent_delta": 4.4377,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1671,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1671,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.256,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.462,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.256,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.462,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.256,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.462,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_TB": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.173,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.173,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.28,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.72,
"percent_delta": 0.2195,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.227,
"after": 0.256,
"delta": 0.029,
"percent_delta": 0.1278,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.427,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.427,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.62,
"percent_delta": 1.6316,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.15,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.313,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.02,
"percent_delta": 0.0639,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.547,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.547,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.71,
"percent_delta": 5.8966,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.547,
"after": 0.462,
"delta": -0.085,
"percent_delta": -0.1554,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.947,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.053,
"percent_delta": 1.1119,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.29,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.71,
"percent_delta": 5.8966,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.547,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.547,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.173 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.280 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.427 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.380 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.547 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.547 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.947 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.186 | 0.014 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.253 | -0.026 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.404 | -0.023 |
| predicted_H | 0.572 | 0.192 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.028 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.192 | 0.042 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.323 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.549 | 0.002 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.370 | 0.080 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.548 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.876 | -0.071 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.186 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.253 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.178 | -0.061 |
| predicted_BB | 0.408 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.581 | 0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.193 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.270 | -0.053 |
| predicted_R | 0.564 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.417 | -0.131 |
| predicted_SO | 0.867 | -0.009 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.059
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.316)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.167 | 0.167 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.381 | 0.381 |
| H | 0.913 | -0.087 |
| HR | 0.184 | 0.184 |
| RBI | 0.496 | 0.496 |
| SO | 0.966 | -0.034 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.167 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.256 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.619 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.087 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.816 |
| OBP | 0.333 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.504 |
| SLG | 0.462 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.034 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.186 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.747 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.256 | 0.078 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.592 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.419 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.807 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.063 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.436 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.620 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.462 | 0.045 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.133 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.256 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.333 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.462 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.2857 | 0.3750 | 0.7857 | 0.2857 | 0.1429 | 0.1429 | 0.1429 | 0.1429 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 0.2424 | 0.2857 | 0.5152 | 0.2424 | 0.0606 | 0.1212 | 0.0606 | 0.2121 |
| season | 0.60 | 150 | - | 492.000 | 123.000 | 26.000 | 1.000 | 31.000 | 78.000 | 82.000 | 64.000 | 142.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3440 | 0.4959 | 0.2500 | 0.0630 | 0.1585 | 0.1301 | 0.2886 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2040 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2190 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2552 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3740 |
| predicted_H | 0.8220 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0280 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2460 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3369 |
| predicted_R | 0.5510 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4730 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5501 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7830 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1730 | 0.2040 | 0.1865 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 | 0.0040 | 0.0057 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.2800 | 3.2190 | 3.2535 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2270 | 0.2552 | 0.2393 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4270 | 0.3740 | 0.4039 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.3800 | 0.8220 | 0.5724 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0280 | 0.0280 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1500 | 0.2460 | 0.1918 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3130 | 0.3369 | 0.3234 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5470 | 0.5510 | 0.5487 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2900 | 0.4730 | 0.3696 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5470 | 0.5501 | 0.5483 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9470 | 0.7830 | 0.8756 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 538 |
| Season rows before report date | 538 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 150 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 571970 |
| note | Struck out for Hernández, T in the 9th. |
| playerID | 571970 |
| playerName | Max Muncy |
| pos | 3B |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.361 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.349 |
| sl_xba | 0.242 |
| sl_xslg | 0.47 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 45.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.108 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.098 | 0.000 | -0.098 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.541 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.598 | 4.000 | 1.402 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.226 | 0.250 | 0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.162 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.207 | 0.000 | -0.207 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.568 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.587 | 1.000 | 0.413 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.135 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.130 | 1.000 | -0.130 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.270 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.283 | 0.250 | -0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.351 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.391 | 1.000 | -0.391 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.378 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.435 | 2.000 | 0.565 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.426 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.414 | 1.000 | -0.164 | -0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.811 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.880 | 2.000 | 0.120 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | boosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.5410 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.4590, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.3510 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3510, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AB: 2.5410 -> 2.7238 (boost 0.1828, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4411 -> 0.4467 (boost 0.0056, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.4315 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5685, better) | predicted_BB: 0.1598 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1598, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.057 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3691 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3691, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.2234 (boost 0.2234, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.4383 (deboost -0.5617, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.8055 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1945, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4383 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4383, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "571771",
"player_name": "Enrique Hernández",
"position": "2B",
"team": "LAD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.108,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.541,
"predicted_AVG": 0.223,
"predicted_BB": 0.162,
"predicted_H": 0.568,
"predicted_HR": 0.135,
"predicted_OBP": 0.27,
"predicted_R": 0.351,
"predicted_RBI": 0.378,
"predicted_SLG": 0.426,
"predicted_SO": 0.811
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1187,
"predicted_3B": 0.0011,
"predicted_AB": 2.7238,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2271,
"predicted_BB": 0.1582,
"predicted_H": 0.6204,
"predicted_HBP": 0.006,
"predicted_HR": 0.1545,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2708,
"predicted_R": 0.359,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4197,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4411,
"predicted_SO": 0.8206
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.541,
"after": 2.7238,
"delta": 0.1828,
"percent_delta": 0.0719,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.568,
"after": 0.6204,
"delta": 0.0524,
"percent_delta": 0.0923,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.426,
"after": 0.4411,
"delta": 0.0151,
"percent_delta": 0.0354,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 2.541,
"after": 2.7238,
"delta": 0.1828,
"percent_delta": 0.0719,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 37
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1187,
"predicted_3B": 0.0011,
"predicted_AB": 2.7238,
"predicted_AVG": 0.231,
"predicted_BB": 0.1598,
"predicted_H": 0.6293,
"predicted_HBP": 0.006,
"predicted_HR": 0.1555,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2737,
"predicted_R": 0.3691,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4315,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4467,
"predicted_SO": 0.8123
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4411,
"after": 0.4467,
"delta": 0.0056,
"percent_delta": 0.0127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.4411,
"after": 0.4467,
"delta": 0.0056,
"percent_delta": 0.0127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.057",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1187,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1187,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.7238,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.2762,
"percent_delta": 0.1014,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1598,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1598,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6293,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3707,
"percent_delta": 0.5891,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1555,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1555,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4315,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5685,
"percent_delta": 1.3175,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8123,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1877,
"percent_delta": 0.2311,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4315,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5685,
"percent_delta": 1.3175,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1598,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1598,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3691,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3691,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.3691,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3691,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1363,
"predicted_3B": 0.0095,
"predicted_BB": 0.2234,
"predicted_H": 0.8055,
"predicted_HR": 0.1373,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4383,
"predicted_SO": 0.9796
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1363,
"delta": 0.1363,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.2234,
"delta": 0.2234,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8055,
"delta": -0.1945,
"percent_delta": -0.1945,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1373,
"delta": 0.1373,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.4383,
"delta": -0.5617,
"percent_delta": -0.5617,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.2234,
"delta": 0.2234,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.4383,
"delta": -0.5617,
"percent_delta": -0.5617,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.247,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.301,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.422,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1363,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1363,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.247,
"delta": 0.016,
"percent_delta": 0.0693,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2234,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2234,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8055,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1945,
"percent_delta": 0.2415,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1373,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1373,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2737,
"after": 0.301,
"delta": 0.0273,
"percent_delta": 0.0997,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4383,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4383,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4467,
"after": 0.422,
"delta": -0.0247,
"percent_delta": -0.0553,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8055,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1945,
"percent_delta": 0.2415,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4383,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4383,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.247,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.301,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.422,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.247,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.301,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.422,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.247,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.301,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.422,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.108,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.108,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.541,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.459,
"percent_delta": 0.5742,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.247,
"delta": 0.024,
"percent_delta": 0.1076,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.162,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.162,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.568,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.432,
"percent_delta": 0.7606,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.135,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.135,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.301,
"delta": 0.031,
"percent_delta": 0.1148,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.351,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.351,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.378,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.622,
"percent_delta": 1.6455,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.811,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.189,
"percent_delta": 0.233,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.541,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.459,
"percent_delta": 0.5742,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.351,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.351,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "boosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.108 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.541 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.162 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.568 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.135 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.351 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.378 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.426 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.811 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.119 | 0.011 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.724 | 0.183 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.158 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.620 | 0.052 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.154 | 0.019 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.271 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.359 | 0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | 0.042 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.441 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 0.821 | 0.010 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.724 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.231 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.160 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.629 | 0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.155 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.274 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.369 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.431 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.447 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.812 | -0.008 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.057
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.136 | 0.136 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.223 | 0.223 |
| H | 0.805 | -0.195 |
| HR | 0.137 | 0.137 |
| RBI | 0.438 | -0.562 |
| SO | 0.980 | -0.020 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.247 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.223 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.195 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.137 |
| OBP | 0.301 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.438 |
| SLG | 0.422 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.020 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.276 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | 0.016 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.160 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.371 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | 0.027 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.369 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.431 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.422 | -0.025 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.188 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.247 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.301 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.422 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.6875 | 0.2500 | 0.1250 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 0.2258 | 0.2500 | 0.4516 | 0.2258 | 0.0645 | 0.1613 | 0.0323 | 0.2581 |
| season | 0.60 | 37 | - | 94.000 | 21.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 14.000 | 13.000 | 6.000 | 30.000 | 0.2234 | 0.2700 | 0.4255 | 0.2234 | 0.0532 | 0.1489 | 0.0638 | 0.3191 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1360 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0030 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0190 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2336 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1520 |
| predicted_H | 0.7050 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0060 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1860 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2720 |
| predicted_R | 0.3720 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4870 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4656 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8360 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1080 | 0.1360 | 0.1187 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0030 | 0.0011 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5410 | 3.0190 | 2.7238 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2230 | 0.2336 | 0.2271 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1620 | 0.1520 | 0.1582 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.5680 | 0.7050 | 0.6204 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0060 | 0.0060 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 | 0.1860 | 0.1545 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2700 | 0.2720 | 0.2708 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3510 | 0.3720 | 0.3590 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3780 | 0.4870 | 0.4197 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4260 | 0.4656 | 0.4411 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8110 | 0.8360 | 0.8206 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 92 |
| Season rows before report date | 92 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 37 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 571771 |
| playerID | 571771 |
| playerName | Enrique Hernández |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.293 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.279 |
| sl_xba | 0.22 |
| sl_xslg | 0.367 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 10.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.168 | 0.000 | -0.168 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.030 | 0.000 | -0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.030 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.696 | 4.000 | 0.304 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.240 | 0.250 | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.477 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.521 | 0.000 | -0.521 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.910 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.885 | 1.000 | 0.115 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.121 | 0.000 | -0.121 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.333 | 0.250 | -0.083 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.588 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.631 | 0.000 | -0.631 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.514 | 0.000 | -0.514 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.389 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.400 | 0.250 | -0.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.699 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.724 | 1.000 | -0.724 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.9100 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0900, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6990 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6990, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2270 -> 0.2370 (boost 0.0100, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0300 -> 3.8815 (deboost -0.1485, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.6950 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3050, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.8815 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.8815, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.000) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5798 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4202, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4086 (boost 0.4086, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.6588 (deboost -0.3412, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | - | predicted_H: 0.7940 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7940, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3100 -> 0.3220 (boost 0.0120, better) | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663656",
"player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
"position": "RF",
"team": "LAD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.026,
"predicted_AB": 4.03,
"predicted_AVG": 0.227,
"predicted_BB": 0.477,
"predicted_H": 0.91,
"predicted_HR": 0.15,
"predicted_OBP": 0.308,
"predicted_R": 0.588,
"predicted_RBI": 0.42,
"predicted_SLG": 0.389,
"predicted_SO": 0.699
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1269,
"predicted_3B": 0.0216,
"predicted_AB": 3.8815,
"predicted_AVG": 0.237,
"predicted_BB": 0.4207,
"predicted_H": 0.9157,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.1413,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3108,
"predicted_R": 0.564,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4148,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3896,
"predicted_SO": 0.7021
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"delta": -0.1485,
"percent_delta": -0.0368,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0441,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
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"percent_delta": -0.118,
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"summary": {
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"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 153
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0216,
"predicted_AB": 3.8815,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2393,
"predicted_BB": 0.4249,
"predicted_H": 0.9289,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.1422,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3144,
"predicted_R": 0.5798,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4265,
"predicted_SLG": 0.393,
"predicted_SO": 0.695
},
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"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 5,
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
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{
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"step": "bvp_blend",
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.227,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.322,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.381,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.322,
"delta": 0.012,
"percent_delta": 0.0387,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.376,
"after": 0.381,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0133,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.322,
"delta": 0.012,
"percent_delta": 0.0387,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.15,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.477,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.477,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.91,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.09,
"percent_delta": 0.0989,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.15,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.308,
"after": 0.322,
"delta": 0.014,
"percent_delta": 0.0455,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.588,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.588,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.42,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.389,
"after": 0.381,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -0.0206,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.699,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.699,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.91,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.09,
"percent_delta": 0.0989,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.699,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.699,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.030 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.477 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.910 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.588 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.389 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.699 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.127 | -0.023 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.881 | -0.149 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.237 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.421 | -0.056 |
| predicted_H | 0.916 | 0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.141 | -0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.564 | -0.024 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.415 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.390 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.702 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.127 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.881 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.425 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.929 | 0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.142 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.580 | 0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.426 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.393 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.695 | -0.007 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.000)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.140 | 0.140 |
| 3B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.380 | 0.380 |
| H | 0.794 | -0.206 |
| HR | 0.115 | 0.115 |
| RBI | 0.409 | 0.409 |
| SO | 0.659 | -0.341 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.140 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.228 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.380 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.794 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.115 |
| OBP | 0.310 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.409 |
| SLG | 0.376 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.659 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.127 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.881 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.425 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.929 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.142 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.420 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.426 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.376 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.695 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.228 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.310 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.376 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.3000 | 0.3333 | 0.4500 | 0.3000 | 0.0500 | 0.1000 | 0.0500 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.2432 | 0.2632 | 0.3243 | 0.2432 | 0.0270 | 0.0541 | 0.0270 | 0.1622 |
| season | 0.60 | 153 | - | 547.000 | 129.000 | 23.000 | 4.000 | 18.000 | 72.000 | 90.000 | 73.000 | 107.000 | 0.2358 | 0.3259 | 0.3912 | 0.2358 | 0.0329 | 0.1316 | 0.1335 | 0.1956 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0970 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6900 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3480 |
| predicted_H | 0.9230 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0130 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3144 |
| predicted_R | 0.5330 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4080 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3904 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7060 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1500 | 0.0970 | 0.1269 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0260 | 0.0160 | 0.0216 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.0300 | 3.6900 | 3.8815 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2270 | 0.2500 | 0.2370 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4770 | 0.3480 | 0.4207 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9100 | 0.9230 | 0.9157 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0130 | 0.0130 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1500 | 0.1300 | 0.1413 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3080 | 0.3144 | 0.3108 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5880 | 0.5330 | 0.5640 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4200 | 0.4080 | 0.4148 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3890 | 0.3904 | 0.3896 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6990 | 0.7060 | 0.7021 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 601 |
| Season rows before report date | 601 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 153 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663656 |
| playerID | 663656 |
| playerName | Kyle Tucker |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.318 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.331 |
| sl_xba | 0.256 |
| sl_xslg | 0.393 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.185 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.198 | 0.000 | -0.198 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.018 | 0.000 | -0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.560 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.957 | 4.000 | 0.043 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.275 | 0.500 | -0.275 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.370 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.380 | 0.000 | -0.380 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.054 | 0.000 | -0.054 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 1.089 | 2.000 | -1.089 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.173 | 0.000 | -0.173 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.329 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.342 | 0.500 | -0.342 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.563 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.625 | 1.000 | -0.625 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.640 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.652 | 0.000 | -0.652 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.466 | 0.500 | -0.466 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.859 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.843 | 1.000 | -0.843 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AVG: 0.2450 -> 0.2550 (boost 0.0100, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.1200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | predicted_SO: 0.8590 -> 0.9609 (boost 0.1019, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.5600 -> 4.1387 (deboost -0.4213, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3333 -> 0.3185 (deboost -0.0148, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | predicted_AB: 4.1387 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.1387, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=4.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.041 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5484 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4516, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4949 (boost 0.4949, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7307 (deboost -0.2693, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.4949 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5051, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2599 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2599, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.3220 -> 0.3300 (boost 0.0080, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4410 -> 0.4310 (deboost -0.0100, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "681624",
"player_name": "Andy Pages",
"position": "CF",
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"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.431,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.263,
"after": 0.255,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -0.0304,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.322,
"after": 0.33,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0248,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.441,
"after": 0.431,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.0227,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.322,
"after": 0.33,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0248,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.441,
"after": 0.431,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.0227,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.185,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.185,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.56,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.56,
"percent_delta": -0.1228,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.255,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0408,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.37,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.12,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.12,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.075,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.075,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.563,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.563,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.64,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.424,
"after": 0.431,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0165,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.859,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.859,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.255,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0408,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.12,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.12,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.185 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.560 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.370 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.120 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.329 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.563 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.640 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.859 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | -0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.139 | -0.421 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.248 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.403 | 0.033 |
| predicted_H | 1.026 | -0.094 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.075 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.187 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.533 | -0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.635 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.433 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.961 | 0.102 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.139 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.252 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.407 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 1.041 | 0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.075 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.188 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | -0.015 |
| predicted_R | 0.548 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.653 | 0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.433 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.951 | -0.010 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=4.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.041
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.141 | 0.141 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.260 | 0.260 |
| H | 0.865 | -0.135 |
| HR | 0.142 | 0.142 |
| RBI | 0.495 | 0.495 |
| SO | 0.731 | -0.269 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.141 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.263 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.260 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.135 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.142 |
| OBP | 0.322 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.505 |
| SLG | 0.441 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.269 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.161 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -1.139 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.407 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.041 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.188 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.347 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.441 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.049 |
KPI club run ratio within 2% of 1.0; lineup line unchanged
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.263 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.322 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.441 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 0.1765 | 0.2857 | 0.3529 | 0.1765 | 0.0588 | 0.2353 | 0.1765 | 0.4706 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 30.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 12.000 | 0.2667 | 0.3947 | 0.5000 | 0.2667 | 0.0667 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.4000 |
| season | 0.60 | 135 | - | 518.000 | 141.000 | 25.000 | 2.000 | 23.000 | 84.000 | 76.000 | 50.000 | 116.000 | 0.2722 | 0.3408 | 0.4614 | 0.2722 | 0.0444 | 0.1622 | 0.0965 | 0.2239 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1300 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5930 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2518 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4450 |
| predicted_H | 0.9050 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0750 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1830 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3388 |
| predicted_R | 0.4950 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6290 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4454 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0930 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1850 | 0.1300 | 0.1610 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 | 0.0090 | 0.0124 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.5600 | 3.5930 | 4.1387 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2450 | 0.2518 | 0.2480 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3700 | 0.4450 | 0.4027 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1200 | 0.9050 | 1.0263 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0750 | 0.0750 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1900 | 0.1830 | 0.1870 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3290 | 0.3388 | 0.3333 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5630 | 0.4950 | 0.5334 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6400 | 0.6290 | 0.6352 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4240 | 0.4454 | 0.4333 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8590 | 1.0930 | 0.9609 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 560 |
| Season rows before report date | 560 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 135 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681624 |
| playerID | 681624 |
| playerName | Andy Pages |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.352 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.343 |
| sl_xba | 0.274 |
| sl_xslg | 0.442 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.923 | 2.000 | -1.923 | -2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.231 | 3.000 | -0.231 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_H | 3.462 | 3.000 | 0.538 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.100 | 5.100 | 5.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.638 | 6.100 | -0.538 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_SO | 7.538 | 11.000 | -2.538 | -6.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 5 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 4.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -4.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SO: 6.0000 -> 7.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 8 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score |
| 9 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | predicted_BB: 4.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -4.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 10 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "607192",
"player_name": "Tyler Glasnow",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "LAD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 4.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
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"step": "play_by_play_realization",
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}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | 1.000 |
Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 20.000 | - |
| ER | 2.000 | - |
| H | 4.000 | - |
| HR | 2.000 | - |
| IP | 5.100 | - |
| Pitches | 94.000 | - |
| R | 2.000 | - |
| SO | 5.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 29.100 | 14.000 | 19.000 | 12.000 | 42.000 | 2.000 | 4.2955 | 1.0568 | 0.4773 | 0.6477 | 0.4091 | 1.4318 | 0.0682 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 56.000 | 21.000 | 32.000 | 21.000 | 76.000 | 5.000 | 3.3750 | 0.9464 | 0.3750 | 0.5714 | 0.3750 | 1.3571 | 0.0893 |
| season | 0.20 | 13 | 74.000 | 29.000 | 45.000 | 25.000 | 98.000 | 7.000 | 3.5270 | 0.9459 | 0.3919 | 0.6081 | 0.3378 | 1.3243 | 0.0946 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.2420 |
| predicted_ER | 2.6360 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.0432 |
| predicted_H | 4.2040 |
| predicted_HR | 0.5840 |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 7.3880 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0987 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 4.0000 | 2.2420 | 3.0636 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 2.6360 | 2.8061 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.0432 | 4.0432 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 4.0000 | 4.2040 | 4.1087 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.5840 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 | 6.0000 | 6.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 6.0000 | 7.3880 | 6.7393 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0987 | 1.0987 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 13 |
| Season rows before report date | 13 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 13 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.1 |
| H | 4 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 5 |
| HR | 2 |
| BF | 20 |
| Pitches | 94 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 24 |
| Pitching_ER | 3 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.53 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 4 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 6.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 91 |
| Pitching_R | 3 |
| Pitching_SO | 11 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 58 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260924_SD@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 607192 |
| playerID | 607192 |
| playerName | Tyler Glasnow |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-09-24 |
| sl_k_percent | 34.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.245 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.263 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 32.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 80.944570988 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.941386111 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.438 | 0.000 | -0.438 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.233 | 0.000 | -0.233 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.411 | 0.000 | -0.411 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.664 | 1.000 | 0.336 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.027 | 1.000 | -0.027 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "681911",
"player_name": "Alex Vesia",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAD",
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}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 3.000 | - |
| ER | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 1.000 | - |
| Pitches | 14.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 1.6000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.3333 | 0.0000 | 0.2222 | 0.1111 | 1.4444 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 73 | 59.000 | 17.000 | 30.000 | 32.000 | 75.000 | 4.000 | 2.5932 | 1.0508 | 0.2881 | 0.5085 | 0.5424 | 1.2712 | 0.0678 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2660 |
| predicted_ER | 0.1810 |
| predicted_ERA | 1.7135 |
| predicted_H | 0.3940 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0500 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2590 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.6929 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2660 | 0.1402 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.1810 | 0.0954 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 1.7135 | 1.7135 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.3940 | 0.2077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.0264 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.2590 | 1.1365 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.6929 | 0.6929 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 73 |
| Season rows before report date | 73 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 73 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 14 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 15 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681911 |
| playerID | 681911 |
| playerName | Alex Vesia |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.233 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.254 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 33.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.487421364 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.757592977 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.852 | 2.000 | -1.852 | -2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.259 | 0.000 | -1.259 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 4.185 | 0.000 | -3.185 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.519 | 2.000 | -3.419 | -0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 4.593 | 1.000 | -2.593 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 3 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "808963",
"player_name": "Roki Sasaki",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 5.000 | - |
| ER | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 1.100 | - |
| Pitches | 24.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 8.100 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 4.3200 | 1.4400 | 0.4800 | 0.9600 | 0.4800 | 1.2000 | 0.1200 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 37.200 | 13.000 | 31.000 | 16.000 | 39.000 | 3.000 | 3.1062 | 1.2478 | 0.3451 | 0.8230 | 0.4248 | 1.0354 | 0.0796 |
| season | 0.20 | 27 | 124.100 | 61.000 | 113.000 | 50.000 | 124.000 | 22.000 | 4.4155 | 1.3110 | 0.4906 | 0.9089 | 0.4021 | 0.9973 | 0.1769 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.1790 |
| predicted_ER | 1.2130 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.0252 |
| predicted_H | 2.4810 |
| predicted_HR | 0.3310 |
| predicted_IP | 2.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 2.9170 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3499 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 1.1790 | 0.6885 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 1.2130 | 1.1244 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.0252 | 4.0252 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 2.4810 | 1.8649 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.3310 | 0.6093 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 2.2000 | 2.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 2.9170 | 2.1195 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3499 | 1.3499 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 27 |
| Season rows before report date | 27 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 27 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 24 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 8 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 4 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 1 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 2.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 36 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 18 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 7 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261004_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 808963 |
| playerID | 808963 |
| playerName | Roki Sasaki |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-04 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.339 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.318 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.907905814 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.430844694 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.667 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.267 | 0.000 | 0.733 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 0.567 | 0.000 | 1.433 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.840 | 0.100 | 0.260 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.867 | 0.000 | 3.133 | 4.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 5 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 4.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 4.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "592779",
"player_name": "Brock Stewart",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "LAD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
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},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"before": 0.0,
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{
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 2.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
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"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.4333,
"percent_delta": 0.65,
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],
"summary": {
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"biggest_deboost": null
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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},
{
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],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 5,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| BF | 7.000 | - |
| ER | 1.000 | - |
| H | 2.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 1.100 | - |
| Pitches | 29.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| SO | 4.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 2.0769 | 0.6923 | 0.2308 | 0.4615 | 0.2308 | 1.1539 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 3.0000 | 1.0000 | 0.3333 | 0.7778 | 0.2222 | 0.8889 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 29 | 28.000 | 7.000 | 16.000 | 10.000 | 26.000 | 2.000 | 2.2500 | 0.9286 | 0.2500 | 0.5714 | 0.3571 | 0.9286 | 0.0714 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2640 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3240 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.4501 |
| predicted_H | 0.6560 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0650 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8270 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0876 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2640 | 0.1199 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3240 | 0.1471 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.4501 | 3.4501 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.6560 | 0.2979 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0650 | 0.0295 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 1.0000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.8270 | 0.3755 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0876 | 1.0876 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 30 |
| Season rows before report date | 30 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 29 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 4 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 7 |
| Pitches | 29 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 1 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 2 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 2 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261004_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 592779 |
| playerID | 592779 |
| playerName | Brock Stewart |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-04 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.258 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.248 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 23.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.2 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 65.876245588 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.388121765 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Tyler Mahle |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0461 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0125 |
| Avg Velo | 89.6403 |
| Avg Spin | 2134.9981 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 6 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 4 |
| Season ERA | 3.8654 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2244 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.5710 |
| Recent Avg IP | 6.2000 |
| Last Start IP | 7 |
{
"team": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 1.1609,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.156
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6173,
"runs_scored": 801.0,
"runs_allowed": 600.0,
"run_differential": 201.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
"offense_index": 1.1022,
"defense_index": 1.2112,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
"run_differential": 28.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3568
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.2008,
"offense_edge": 0.021,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1022,
"defense_strength": 0.1609,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2112,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9927,
"run_prevention": 1.0103,
"strikeout": 0.9858
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "641816",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "641816",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 543.0,
"k_percent": 22.3,
"bb_percent": 7.5,
"woba": 0.311,
"xwoba": 0.306,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
"avg_best_speed": 80.0191,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8316,
"whiff_percent": 22.9,
"swing_percent": 45.6
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0666,
"command_and_miss": -0.0171,
"regression_edge": 0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
"barrel_edge": 0.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1143,
"whiff_edge": -0.3286,
"bb_edge": 0.425,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0125
},
"quality_score": 0.0461,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9961,
"strikeout_factor": 0.988,
"walk_factor": 0.966,
"homer_factor": 0.9832,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "641816",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9961,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 0.9961,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.966,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9832,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 0.988,
"adjusted": 5
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 61.1,
"ER": 13,
"H": 49,
"BB": 10,
"SO": 54,
"HR": 6,
"ERA": 1.9076086956521738,
"WHIP": 0.9619565217391304,
"K9": 7.923913043478261,
"HR9": 0.8804347826086956,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 8,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-30T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "641816",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 93,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 93,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.64026118417685,
"release_spin_rate": 2134.9981031675284,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 93,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.64026118417685,
"release_spin_rate": 2134.9981031675284,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.6403,
"release_spin_rate": 2134.9981,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0125,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.0896,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 28.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8485,
"prior_weight": 0.1515
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "641816",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 28,
"reference_playing_time": 6.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 31.0,
"ER": 8.0,
"R": 10.0,
"H": 25.0,
"BB": 5.0,
"SO": 22.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 121.0,
"Pitches": 475.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.1,
"ER": 1.6,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 4.4,
"HR": 0.6,
"BF": 24.2,
"Pitches": 95.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.3226,
"WHIP": 0.9677,
"ER_per_IP": 0.25806,
"H_per_IP": 0.80645,
"BB_per_IP": 0.16129,
"SO_per_IP": 0.70968,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09677
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 61.1,
"ER": 13.0,
"R": 15.0,
"H": 49.0,
"BB": 10.0,
"SO": 54.0,
"HR": 6.0,
"BF": 238.0,
"Pitches": 919.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 1.3,
"R": 1.5,
"H": 4.9,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 5.4,
"HR": 0.6,
"BF": 23.8,
"Pitches": 91.9
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.9076,
"WHIP": 0.962,
"ER_per_IP": 0.21196,
"H_per_IP": 0.79891,
"BB_per_IP": 0.16304,
"SO_per_IP": 0.88043,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09783
}
},
"season": {
"games": 28,
"totals": {
"IP": 156.0,
"ER": 67.0,
"R": 70.0,
"H": 144.0,
"BB": 47.0,
"SO": 143.0,
"HR": 20.0,
"BF": 642.0,
"Pitches": 2497.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 2.3929,
"R": 2.5,
"H": 5.1429,
"BB": 1.6786,
"SO": 5.1071,
"HR": 0.7143,
"BF": 22.9286,
"Pitches": 89.1786
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.8654,
"WHIP": 1.2244,
"ER_per_IP": 0.42949,
"H_per_IP": 0.92308,
"BB_per_IP": 0.30128,
"SO_per_IP": 0.91667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.12821
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.895,
"predicted_H": 5.167,
"predicted_BB": 1.328,
"predicted_SO": 5.036,
"predicted_HR": 0.669,
"predicted_ERA": 2.8099,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0699
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.414,
"form_weight": 0.586,
"form_reliability": 0.8485,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 28.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8485,
"prior_weight": 0.1515
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 6.0,
"final": 6.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.895,
"final": 1.5245,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 5.167,
"final": 5.0979,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.328,
"final": 1.6062,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 5.036,
"final": 3.3651,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.669,
"final": 0.392,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.8099,
"final": 2.8099,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.0699,
"final": 1.0699,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Grant Holmes |
| Role | Long Reliever |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.4698 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0250 |
| Avg Velo | 89.4178 |
| Avg Spin | 2448.3693 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 2 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 3.6269 |
| Season WHIP | 1.3497 |
| Role Avg IP | 2.6670 |
| Recent Avg IP | 2.6670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 1.1609,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.156
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6173,
"runs_scored": 801.0,
"runs_allowed": 600.0,
"run_differential": 201.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
"offense_index": 1.1022,
"defense_index": 1.2112,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
"run_differential": 28.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3568
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.2008,
"offense_edge": 0.021,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1022,
"defense_strength": 0.1609,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2112,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9927,
"run_prevention": 1.0103,
"strikeout": 0.9858
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "656550",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656550",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 599.0,
"k_percent": 17.9,
"bb_percent": 9.7,
"woba": 0.314,
"xwoba": 0.342,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 45.2,
"avg_best_speed": 82.0972,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.9338,
"whiff_percent": 27.3,
"swing_percent": 48.7
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.6043,
"command_and_miss": -0.19,
"regression_edge": -0.8,
"xwoba_edge": -0.8571,
"barrel_edge": -0.3778,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.0429,
"whiff_edge": 0.3,
"bb_edge": -0.125,
"pitch_design_score": -0.025
},
"quality_score": -0.4698,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0399,
"strikeout_factor": 0.988,
"walk_factor": 1.01,
"homer_factor": 1.0977,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "656550",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0399,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0399,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.01,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0977,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.988,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 40.1,
"ER": 16,
"H": 38,
"BB": 16,
"SO": 22,
"HR": 5,
"ERA": 3.570247933884298,
"WHIP": 1.3388429752066118,
"K9": 4.90909090909091,
"HR9": 1.115702479338843,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 3,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-04T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656550",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 80,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 80,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.41776598581812,
"release_spin_rate": 2448.3692690088064,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 80,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.41776598581812,
"release_spin_rate": 2448.3692690088064,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.4178,
"release_spin_rate": 2448.3693,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.025,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.1786,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 34.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8718,
"prior_weight": 0.1282
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "656550",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 34,
"reference_playing_time": 2.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 16.2,
"ER": 7.0,
"R": 7.0,
"H": 20.0,
"BB": 7.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 72.0,
"Pitches": 257.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 3.1,
"ER": 1.4,
"R": 1.4,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 1.4,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.8,
"BF": 14.4,
"Pitches": 51.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.78,
"WHIP": 1.62,
"ER_per_IP": 0.42,
"H_per_IP": 1.2,
"BB_per_IP": 0.42,
"SO_per_IP": 0.36,
"HR_per_IP": 0.24
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 40.1,
"ER": 16.0,
"R": 16.0,
"H": 38.0,
"BB": 16.0,
"SO": 22.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 168.0,
"Pitches": 615.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.0,
"ER": 1.6,
"R": 1.6,
"H": 3.8,
"BB": 1.6,
"SO": 2.2,
"HR": 0.5,
"BF": 16.8,
"Pitches": 61.5
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.5702,
"WHIP": 1.3388,
"ER_per_IP": 0.39669,
"H_per_IP": 0.94215,
"BB_per_IP": 0.39669,
"SO_per_IP": 0.54545,
"HR_per_IP": 0.12397
}
},
"season": {
"games": 34,
"totals": {
"IP": 156.1,
"ER": 63.0,
"R": 65.0,
"H": 144.0,
"BB": 67.0,
"SO": 118.0,
"HR": 23.0,
"BF": 668.0,
"Pitches": 2482.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.2,
"ER": 1.8529,
"R": 1.9118,
"H": 4.2353,
"BB": 1.9706,
"SO": 3.4706,
"HR": 0.6765,
"BF": 19.6471,
"Pitches": 73.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.6269,
"WHIP": 1.3497,
"ER_per_IP": 0.40299,
"H_per_IP": 0.92111,
"BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
"SO_per_IP": 0.7548,
"HR_per_IP": 0.14712
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 3.2,
"predicted_ER": 1.518,
"predicted_H": 3.761,
"predicted_BB": 1.473,
"predicted_SO": 2.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.636,
"predicted_ERA": 3.7976,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.4545
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4042,
"form_weight": 0.5958,
"form_reliability": 0.8718,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 34.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8718,
"prior_weight": 0.1282
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 3.2,
"final": 3.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.518,
"final": 0.9045,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 3.761,
"final": 2.6451,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.473,
"final": 0.8777,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 2.012,
"final": 2.0072,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.636,
"final": 0.379,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.7976,
"final": 3.7976,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.4545,
"final": 1.4545,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Dylan Dodd |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.2846 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 2 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 2.4847 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9018 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.0270 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.1330 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 1.1609,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.156
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6173,
"runs_scored": 801.0,
"runs_allowed": 600.0,
"run_differential": 201.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
"offense_index": 1.1022,
"defense_index": 1.2112,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
"run_differential": 28.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3568
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.2008,
"offense_edge": 0.021,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1022,
"defense_strength": 0.1609,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2112,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9927,
"run_prevention": 1.0103,
"strikeout": 0.9858
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "689266",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "689266",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 168.0,
"k_percent": 27.3,
"bb_percent": 7.2,
"woba": 0.26,
"xwoba": 0.273,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
"avg_best_speed": 80.0941,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4986,
"whiff_percent": 29.5,
"swing_percent": 54.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.5212,
"command_and_miss": 0.6493,
"regression_edge": -0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.1143,
"barrel_edge": -0.3778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1143,
"whiff_edge": 0.6143,
"bb_edge": 0.5,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"quality_score": 0.2846,
"sample_weight": 0.672,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9758,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0365,
"walk_factor": 0.9731,
"homer_factor": 0.9948,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.013,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "689266",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9837,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9837,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9819,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9965,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0245,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 11.1,
"ER": 5,
"H": 9,
"BB": 1,
"SO": 15,
"HR": 3,
"ERA": 3.9705882352941173,
"WHIP": 0.8823529411764706,
"K9": 11.911764705882351,
"HR9": 2.3823529411764706,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-06T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "689266",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.219,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6917,
"prior_weight": 0.3083
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "689266",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 51,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 7.2,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 31.0,
"Pitches": 124.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.2,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 1.4,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 1.8,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 6.2,
"Pitches": 24.8
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.913,
"ER_per_IP": 0.3913,
"H_per_IP": 0.91304,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 1.17391,
"HR_per_IP": 0.13043
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 11.1,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 15.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 45.0,
"Pitches": 182.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.5,
"R": 0.5,
"H": 0.9,
"BB": 0.1,
"SO": 1.5,
"HR": 0.3,
"BF": 4.5,
"Pitches": 18.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.9706,
"WHIP": 0.8824,
"ER_per_IP": 0.44118,
"H_per_IP": 0.79412,
"BB_per_IP": 0.08824,
"SO_per_IP": 1.32353,
"HR_per_IP": 0.26471
}
},
"season": {
"games": 51,
"totals": {
"IP": 54.1,
"ER": 15.0,
"R": 15.0,
"H": 35.0,
"BB": 14.0,
"SO": 59.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 212.0,
"Pitches": 857.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2941,
"R": 0.2941,
"H": 0.6863,
"BB": 0.2745,
"SO": 1.1569,
"HR": 0.1373,
"BF": 4.1569,
"Pitches": 16.8039
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.4847,
"WHIP": 0.9018,
"ER_per_IP": 0.27607,
"H_per_IP": 0.64417,
"BB_per_IP": 0.25767,
"SO_per_IP": 1.08589,
"HR_per_IP": 0.12883
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_ER": 0.513,
"predicted_H": 1.05,
"predicted_BB": 0.21,
"predicted_SO": 1.357,
"predicted_HR": 0.203,
"predicted_ERA": 3.8269,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0436
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4803,
"form_weight": 0.5197,
"form_reliability": 0.6917,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.219,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6917,
"prior_weight": 0.3083
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.1,
"final": 1.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 0.513,
"final": 2.6679,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 1.05,
"final": 2.947,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.21,
"final": 1.0697,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.357,
"final": 0.7053,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.203,
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.8269,
"final": 3.8269,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.0436,
"final": 1.0436,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.231 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.236 | 0.000 | -0.236 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | -0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.520 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.027 | 4.000 | -0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.289 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_AVG | 0.298 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.131 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.143 | 0.000 | -0.143 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.600 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_H | 1.198 | 1.000 | 0.802 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.178 | 0.000 | -0.178 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.323 | 0.250 | 0.177 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.525 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.552 | 0.000 | -0.552 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.730 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.599 | 0.000 | -0.599 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.514 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.494 | 0.250 | 0.006 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.762 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.815 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 11 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.6000 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.4000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.5200 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.5200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | predicted_AVG: 0.2890 -> 0.2992 (boost 0.0102, better) | predicted_AB: 5.5200 -> 4.8349 (deboost -0.6851, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5210 -> 0.4660 (deboost -0.0550, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8 | predicted_SO: 0.7343 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2657, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.8349 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.8349, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.033 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5087 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4913, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5850 (boost 0.5850, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | predicted_2B: 0.1964 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8036, better) | predicted_BB: 0.1785 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1785, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4390 -> 0.4860 (boost 0.0470, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4860 -> 0.4550 (deboost -0.0310, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "671739",
"player_name": "Michael Harris II",
"position": "CF",
"team": "ATL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.231,
"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 5.52,
"predicted_AVG": 0.289,
"predicted_BB": 0.131,
"predicted_H": 1.6,
"predicted_HR": 0.21,
"predicted_OBP": 0.322,
"predicted_R": 0.525,
"predicted_RBI": 0.73,
"predicted_SLG": 0.514,
"predicted_SO": 0.762
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2415,
"predicted_3B": 0.0344,
"predicted_AB": 4.8349,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2992,
"predicted_BB": 0.1131,
"predicted_H": 1.4401,
"predicted_HBP": 0.067,
"predicted_HR": 0.1882,
"predicted_OBP": 0.329,
"predicted_R": 0.5372,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6789,
"predicted_SLG": 0.521,
"predicted_SO": 0.7305
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.52,
"after": 4.8349,
"delta": -0.6851,
"percent_delta": -0.1241,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.289,
"after": 0.2992,
"delta": 0.0102,
"percent_delta": 0.0353,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.6,
"after": 1.4401,
"delta": -0.1599,
"percent_delta": -0.0999,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.322,
"after": 0.329,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0217,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.73,
"after": 0.6789,
"delta": -0.0511,
"percent_delta": -0.07,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.514,
"after": 0.521,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0136,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.289,
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"delta": 0.0102,
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 5.52,
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"delta": -0.6851,
"percent_delta": -0.1241,
"direction": "deboost",
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}
},
"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 160
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2415,
"predicted_3B": 0.0344,
"predicted_AB": 4.8349,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2884,
"predicted_BB": 0.1125,
"predicted_H": 1.3943,
"predicted_HBP": 0.067,
"predicted_HR": 0.1828,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3046,
"predicted_R": 0.5087,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6429,
"predicted_SLG": 0.466,
"predicted_SO": 0.7343
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2992,
"after": 0.2884,
"delta": -0.0108,
"percent_delta": -0.0361,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.329,
"after": 0.3046,
"delta": -0.0244,
"percent_delta": -0.0742,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.521,
"after": 0.466,
"delta": -0.055,
"percent_delta": -0.1056,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.521,
"after": 0.466,
"delta": -0.055,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.033",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2415,
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"delta": -0.2415,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.8349,
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"delta": -0.8349,
"percent_delta": -0.1727,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1125,
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"delta": -0.1125,
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{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"percent_delta": -0.2828,
"direction": "deboost",
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{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": -0.067,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": -0.1828,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": -0.6429,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 0.2657,
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"direction": "boost",
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],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": {
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"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
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"weights": {
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
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"changed_metrics": [
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"metric": "predicted_R",
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1964,
"predicted_3B": 0.012,
"predicted_BB": 0.1785,
"predicted_H": 1.0262,
"predicted_HR": 0.1777,
"predicted_RBI": 0.585,
"predicted_SO": 1.0994
},
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}
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.29,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.439,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.253,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
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"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.28,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.319,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.486,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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"material": true
},
{
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{
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.296,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.455,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 2.0
},
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"material": true
},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.031,
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}
],
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}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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"before": 0.525,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.73,
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"delta": -0.73,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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"delta": -0.059,
"percent_delta": -0.1148,
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},
{
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"before": 0.762,
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"percent_delta": 0.3123,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.231 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.520 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.289 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.131 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.600 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.525 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.730 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.514 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.762 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.241 | 0.010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.034 | 0.021 |
| predicted_AB | 4.835 | -0.685 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.299 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.113 | -0.018 |
| predicted_H | 1.440 | -0.160 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.067 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.188 | -0.022 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.329 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.537 | 0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.679 | -0.051 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.521 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.731 | -0.031 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.241 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.034 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.835 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.288 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.113 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.394 | -0.046 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.067 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.183 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | -0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.509 | -0.028 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.643 | -0.036 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.466 | -0.055 |
| predicted_SO | 0.734 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.033
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.196 | 0.196 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.178 | 0.178 |
| H | 1.026 | 0.026 |
| HR | 0.178 | 0.178 |
| RBI | 0.585 | 0.585 |
| SO | 1.099 | 0.099 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.804 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.253 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.178 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.026 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.178 |
| OBP | 0.290 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.415 |
| SLG | 0.439 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.099 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 1.000 | 0.758 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.034 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.835 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | -0.035 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.113 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.394 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.183 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | -0.015 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.491 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.357 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.439 | -0.027 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.266 |
KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.280 | 0.027 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.319 | 0.029 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.486 | 0.047 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.2857 | 0.3182 | 0.5714 | 0.2857 | 0.0476 | 0.1905 | 0.0000 | 0.1429 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 41.000 | 16.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.3902 | 0.4048 | 0.6098 | 0.3902 | 0.0244 | 0.1463 | 0.0000 | 0.1220 |
| season | 0.60 | 160 | - | 613.000 | 184.000 | 37.000 | 2.000 | 27.000 | 91.000 | 84.000 | 21.000 | 122.000 | 0.3002 | 0.3250 | 0.4992 | 0.3002 | 0.0440 | 0.1484 | 0.0343 | 0.1990 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2550 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0620 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9520 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3123 |
| predicted_BB | 0.0900 |
| predicted_H | 1.2340 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0670 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3381 |
| predicted_R | 0.5530 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6130 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5300 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6900 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2310 | 0.2550 | 0.2415 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0620 | 0.0344 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.5200 | 3.9520 | 4.8349 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2890 | 0.3123 | 0.2992 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1310 | 0.0900 | 0.1131 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.6000 | 1.2340 | 1.4401 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0670 | 0.0670 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2100 | 0.1600 | 0.1882 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3220 | 0.3381 | 0.3290 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5250 | 0.5530 | 0.5372 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7300 | 0.6130 | 0.6789 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5140 | 0.5300 | 0.5210 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7620 | 0.6900 | 0.7305 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 601 |
| Season rows before report date | 601 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 160 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 671739 |
| playerID | 671739 |
| playerName | Michael Harris II |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.349 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.342 |
| sl_xba | 0.29 |
| sl_xslg | 0.477 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 10.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 | -0.179 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.991 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.440 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.872 | 3.000 | 0.128 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.256 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.530 | 1.000 | -0.530 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.076 | 0.000 | -0.076 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.980 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.993 | 0.000 | 0.007 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.186 | 0.000 | -0.186 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.350 | 0.250 | -0.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.580 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.582 | 0.000 | -0.582 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.508 | 0.000 | 0.492 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.369 | 0.750 | 0.750 | Hitting_SLG | 0.451 | 0.000 | 0.299 | 0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.946 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.978 | 1.000 | 1.022 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.9460 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0540, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.5800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_AB: 4.4400 -> 4.1312 (deboost -0.3088, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3158 -> 0.2976 (deboost -0.0182, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_H: 0.8721 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1279, better) | predicted_BB: 0.5086 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5086, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.030 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.273) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5587 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4413, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4507 (boost 0.4507, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8596 (deboost -0.1404, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.4135 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5865, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4507 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4507, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_3B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "660670",
"player_name": "Ronald Acuña Jr.",
"position": "RF",
"team": "ATL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.161,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 4.44,
"predicted_AVG": 0.221,
"predicted_BB": 0.5,
"predicted_H": 0.98,
"predicted_HR": 0.16,
"predicted_OBP": 0.314,
"predicted_R": 0.58,
"predicted_RBI": 0.42,
"predicted_SLG": 0.369,
"predicted_SO": 0.946
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1341,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 4.1312,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2179,
"predicted_BB": 0.5113,
"predicted_H": 0.9007,
"predicted_HBP": 0.051,
"predicted_HR": 0.1366,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3158,
"predicted_R": 0.59,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3676,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3518,
"predicted_SO": 0.9027
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.44,
"after": 4.1312,
"delta": -0.3088,
"percent_delta": -0.0695,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.98,
"after": 0.9007,
"delta": -0.0793,
"percent_delta": -0.0809,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.3676,
"delta": -0.0524,
"percent_delta": -0.1248,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.3518,
"delta": -0.0172,
"percent_delta": -0.0466,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.44,
"after": 4.1312,
"delta": -0.3088,
"percent_delta": -0.0695,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 112
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1341,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 4.1312,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2111,
"predicted_BB": 0.5086,
"predicted_H": 0.8721,
"predicted_HBP": 0.051,
"predicted_HR": 0.1327,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2976,
"predicted_R": 0.5587,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3481,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3436,
"predicted_SO": 0.9074
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2179,
"after": 0.2111,
"delta": -0.0068,
"percent_delta": -0.0312,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3158,
"after": 0.2976,
"delta": -0.0182,
"percent_delta": -0.0576,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3518,
"after": 0.3436,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.0233,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3158,
"after": 0.2976,
"delta": -0.0182,
"percent_delta": -0.0576,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.030",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1341,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1341,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1312,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.1312,
"percent_delta": -0.0318,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5086,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5086,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8721,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1279,
"percent_delta": 0.1467,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.051,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.051,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1327,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1327,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3481,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3481,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9074,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0926,
"percent_delta": 0.102,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8721,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1279,
"percent_delta": 0.1467,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5086,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5086,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.273)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.8927,
"bvp": 0.1073
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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],
"summary": {
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"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0099,
"predicted_BB": 0.4135,
"predicted_H": 0.8596,
"predicted_HR": 0.1582,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4507,
"predicted_SO": 1.1239
},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
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}
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.223,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.303,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.394,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.1404,
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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"after": 0.303,
"delta": 0.0054,
"percent_delta": 0.0181,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3436,
"after": 0.394,
"delta": 0.0504,
"percent_delta": 0.1467,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 1.1239,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.223,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.303,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.394,
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.247,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.332,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.437,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"material": true
},
{
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"delta": 0.024,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.303,
"after": 0.332,
"delta": 0.029,
"percent_delta": 0.0957,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": 0.043,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 1.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 1.0,
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"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 1.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 1.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.247,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.332,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.437,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_TB": 3.0
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.161,
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.009,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.991,
"percent_delta": 110.1111,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.221,
"after": 0.247,
"delta": 0.026,
"percent_delta": 0.1176,
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},
{
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"after": 0.0,
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.051,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.051,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.332,
"delta": 0.018,
"percent_delta": 0.0573,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.58,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.58,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.58,
"percent_delta": 1.381,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.437,
"delta": 0.068,
"percent_delta": 0.1843,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.946,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.054,
"percent_delta": 1.1142,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 5,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.58,
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.440 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.980 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.580 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.369 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.946 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.134 | -0.027 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.131 | -0.309 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.218 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.511 | 0.011 |
| predicted_H | 0.901 | -0.079 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.051 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.137 | -0.023 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.590 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.368 | -0.052 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.352 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 0.903 | -0.043 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.134 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.131 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.211 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.509 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.872 | -0.029 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.051 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.133 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.298 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 0.559 | -0.031 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.348 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.344 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.907 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.030
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.273)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.169 | 0.169 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.413 | 0.413 |
| H | 0.860 | -0.140 |
| HR | 0.158 | 0.158 |
| RBI | 0.451 | 0.451 |
| SO | 1.124 | 0.124 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.169 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.223 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.587 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.140 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.158 |
| OBP | 0.303 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.451 |
| SLG | 0.394 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.124 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.134 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.131 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.491 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.128 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.133 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.441 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.348 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.394 | 0.050 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.093 |
KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.247 | 0.024 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.332 | 0.029 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SLG | 0.437 | 0.043 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 0.1667 | 0.3182 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2222 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 0.1389 | 0.2439 | 0.1389 | 0.1389 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1111 | 0.1667 |
| season | 0.60 | 112 | - | 426.000 | 107.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 | 20.000 | 55.000 | 65.000 | 56.000 | 106.000 | 0.2512 | 0.3442 | 0.4390 | 0.2512 | 0.0469 | 0.1291 | 0.1315 | 0.2488 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0990 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7270 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2139 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5260 |
| predicted_H | 0.7970 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0510 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1060 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3182 |
| predicted_R | 0.6030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2990 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3293 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8460 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1610 | 0.0990 | 0.1341 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.4400 | 3.7270 | 4.1312 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2210 | 0.2139 | 0.2179 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5000 | 0.5260 | 0.5113 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9800 | 0.7970 | 0.9007 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0510 | 0.0510 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.1060 | 0.1366 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3140 | 0.3182 | 0.3158 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5800 | 0.6030 | 0.5900 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4200 | 0.2990 | 0.3676 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3690 | 0.3293 | 0.3518 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9460 | 0.8460 | 0.9027 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 447 |
| Season rows before report date | 447 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 112 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 660670 |
| playerID | 660670 |
| playerName | Ronald Acuña Jr. |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.348 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.366 |
| sl_xba | 0.261 |
| sl_xslg | 0.495 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.204 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.227 | 0.000 | -0.227 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.260 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.897 | 4.000 | 0.103 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.253 | 0.250 | -0.253 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.389 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.429 | 0.000 | -0.429 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.987 | 1.000 | -0.987 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.264 | 0.000 | -0.264 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.328 | 0.250 | -0.328 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.605 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.656 | 0.000 | -0.656 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.600 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.592 | 0.000 | -0.592 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.417 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.514 | 0.250 | -0.514 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.066 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.094 | 2.000 | -0.094 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SLG: 0.4170 -> 0.4600 (boost 0.0430, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9400 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AB: 4.2600 -> 4.0444 (deboost -0.2156, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4159 -> 0.4044 (deboost -0.0115, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5578 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4422, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3778 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3778, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.047 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.154) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5447 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4553, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3638 (boost 0.3638, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.4837 (deboost -0.5163, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 1 | predicted_HR: 0.2105 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7895, better) | predicted_SO: 1.1837 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.1837, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4250 -> 0.4710 (boost 0.0460, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4710 -> 0.4600 (deboost -0.0110, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "621566",
"player_name": "Matt Olson",
"position": "1B",
"team": "ATL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.204,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.26,
"predicted_AVG": 0.221,
"predicted_BB": 0.389,
"predicted_H": 0.94,
"predicted_HR": 0.21,
"predicted_OBP": 0.283,
"predicted_R": 0.605,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6,
"predicted_SLG": 0.417,
"predicted_SO": 1.066
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1681,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.0444,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2208,
"predicted_BB": 0.3798,
"predicted_H": 0.8922,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.2069,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2836,
"predicted_R": 0.5752,
"predicted_RBI": 0.589,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4159,
"predicted_SO": 1.0936
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.26,
"after": 4.0444,
"delta": -0.2156,
"percent_delta": -0.0506,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.26,
"after": 4.0444,
"delta": -0.2156,
"percent_delta": -0.0506,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 167
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1681,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.0444,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2136,
"predicted_BB": 0.3778,
"predicted_H": 0.8638,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.201,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2808,
"predicted_R": 0.5447,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5578,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4044,
"predicted_SO": 1.0993
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2208,
"after": 0.2136,
"delta": -0.0072,
"percent_delta": -0.0326,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4159,
"after": 0.4044,
"delta": -0.0115,
"percent_delta": -0.0277,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4159,
"after": 0.4044,
"delta": -0.0115,
"percent_delta": -0.0277,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.047",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1681,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1681,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3778,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3778,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8638,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1362,
"percent_delta": 0.1577,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.201,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.201,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5578,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4422,
"percent_delta": 0.7928,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0993,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0993,
"percent_delta": -0.0903,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5578,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4422,
"percent_delta": 0.7928,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3778,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3778,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.154)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.8791,
"bvp": 0.1209
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5447,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4553,
"percent_delta": 0.8359,
"direction": "boost",
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1657,
"predicted_3B": 0.0066,
"predicted_BB": 0.3638,
"predicted_H": 0.8136,
"predicted_HR": 0.2105,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4837,
"predicted_SO": 1.1837
},
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],
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}
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.213,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.287,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.425,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
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},
{
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{
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],
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}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
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"predicted_AVG": 0.213,
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"predicted_HR": 1.0,
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},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.236,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.314,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.471,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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],
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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"delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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"delta": -1.0,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.226,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.313,
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"predicted_SB": 0.0,
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"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
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},
{
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"delta": -0.011,
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}
],
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}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"delta": -0.204,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.417,
"after": 0.46,
"delta": 0.043,
"percent_delta": 0.1031,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.066,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.066,
"percent_delta": -0.0619,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.204 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.260 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.389 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.605 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.600 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.417 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.066 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.168 | -0.036 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.044 | -0.216 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | -0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.380 | -0.009 |
| predicted_H | 0.892 | -0.048 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.207 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.284 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.575 | -0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.589 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.416 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.094 | 0.028 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.168 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.044 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.214 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.378 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.864 | -0.028 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.201 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.545 | -0.031 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.558 | -0.031 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 1.099 | 0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.047
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.154)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.166 | 0.166 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.364 | 0.364 |
| H | 0.814 | -0.186 |
| HR | 0.210 | 0.210 |
| RBI | 0.484 | -0.516 |
| SO | 1.184 | 0.184 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.213 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.636 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.186 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.789 |
| OBP | 0.287 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.516 |
| SLG | 0.425 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.184 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.168 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.044 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.213 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.622 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.136 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.799 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.455 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.442 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | 0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.099 |
KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.236 | 0.023 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.314 | 0.027 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.471 | 0.046 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2727 | 0.3684 | 0.2105 | 0.0526 | 0.1579 | 0.1053 | 0.3684 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 11.000 | 0.1429 | 0.1951 | 0.2286 | 0.1429 | 0.0286 | 0.1714 | 0.0857 | 0.3143 |
| season | 0.60 | 167 | - | 642.000 | 159.000 | 34.000 | 0.000 | 41.000 | 94.000 | 101.000 | 65.000 | 178.000 | 0.2477 | 0.3166 | 0.4922 | 0.2477 | 0.0639 | 0.1464 | 0.1013 | 0.2773 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1220 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7680 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2205 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3680 |
| predicted_H | 0.8310 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2030 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2844 |
| predicted_R | 0.5370 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5750 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4144 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1290 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2040 | 0.1220 | 0.1681 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.2600 | 3.7680 | 4.0444 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2210 | 0.2205 | 0.2208 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3890 | 0.3680 | 0.3798 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9400 | 0.8310 | 0.8922 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0110 | 0.0110 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2100 | 0.2030 | 0.2069 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2830 | 0.2844 | 0.2836 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6050 | 0.5370 | 0.5752 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6000 | 0.5750 | 0.5890 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4170 | 0.4144 | 0.4159 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0660 | 1.1290 | 1.0936 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 671 |
| Season rows before report date | 671 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 167 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 621566 |
| playerID | 621566 |
| playerName | Matt Olson |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.351 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.351 |
| sl_xba | 0.247 |
| sl_xslg | 0.503 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 14.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 52.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.168 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.192 | 1.000 | -0.192 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.100 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.852 | 4.000 | -0.852 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.211 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.244 | 0.250 | -0.244 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.305 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 | 0.682 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.027 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.939 | 1.000 | -0.939 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.136 | 0.000 | -0.136 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.303 | 0.250 | -0.053 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.533 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.553 | 0.000 | 0.447 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.461 | 0.000 | -0.461 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.439 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.402 | 0.500 | -0.402 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.653 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.667 | 2.000 | -0.667 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3050 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6950, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.1000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.1000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.3050 -> 0.3646 (boost 0.0596, better) | predicted_AB: 4.1000 -> 3.9082 (deboost -0.1918, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4448 -> 0.4006 (deboost -0.0442, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.7136 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2864, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.5307 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5307, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.044 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4823 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4823, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4357 (boost 0.4357, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7633 (deboost -0.2367, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4357 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4357, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3690 -> 0.4080 (boost 0.0390, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4080 -> 0.3800 (deboost -0.0280, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "645277",
"player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
"position": "2B",
"team": "ATL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.168,
"predicted_3B": 0.012,
"predicted_AB": 4.1,
"predicted_AVG": 0.211,
"predicted_BB": 0.305,
"predicted_H": 0.87,
"predicted_HR": 0.17,
"predicted_OBP": 0.299,
"predicted_R": 0.533,
"predicted_RBI": 0.56,
"predicted_SLG": 0.439,
"predicted_SO": 0.653
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1649,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 3.9082,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2171,
"predicted_BB": 0.3646,
"predicted_H": 0.8499,
"predicted_HBP": 0.052,
"predicted_HR": 0.1853,
"predicted_OBP": 0.305,
"predicted_R": 0.5093,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5604,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4448,
"predicted_SO": 0.7099
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1,
"after": 3.9082,
"delta": -0.1918,
"percent_delta": -0.0468,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.211,
"after": 0.2171,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0289,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.3646,
"delta": 0.0596,
"percent_delta": 0.1954,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.299,
"after": 0.305,
"delta": 0.006,
"percent_delta": 0.0201,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.439,
"after": 0.4448,
"delta": 0.0058,
"percent_delta": 0.0132,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.653,
"after": 0.7099,
"delta": 0.0569,
"percent_delta": 0.0871,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.3646,
"delta": 0.0596,
"percent_delta": 0.1954,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1,
"after": 3.9082,
"delta": -0.1918,
"percent_delta": -0.0468,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 167
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1649,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 3.9082,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2106,
"predicted_BB": 0.3627,
"predicted_H": 0.8229,
"predicted_HBP": 0.052,
"predicted_HR": 0.18,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2776,
"predicted_R": 0.4823,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5307,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4006,
"predicted_SO": 0.7136
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2171,
"after": 0.2106,
"delta": -0.0065,
"percent_delta": -0.0299,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.2776,
"delta": -0.0274,
"percent_delta": -0.0898,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4448,
"after": 0.4006,
"delta": -0.0442,
"percent_delta": -0.0994,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4448,
"after": 0.4006,
"delta": -0.0442,
"percent_delta": -0.0994,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.044",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1649,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1649,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9082,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0918,
"percent_delta": 0.0235,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3627,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3627,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8229,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1771,
"percent_delta": 0.2152,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.052,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.052,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.18,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5307,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5307,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7136,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2864,
"percent_delta": 0.4013,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7136,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2864,
"percent_delta": 0.4013,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5307,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5307,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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"weights": {
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"bvp": 0.1
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0103,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.4357,
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},
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{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
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},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
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},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.233,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.408,
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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},
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"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.168 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.100 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.211 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.305 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.533 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.439 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.653 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.165 | -0.003 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 3.908 | -0.192 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.217 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.365 | 0.060 |
| predicted_H | 0.850 | -0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.052 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.185 | 0.015 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.509 | -0.024 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.445 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.710 | 0.057 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.165 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.908 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.211 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.363 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.823 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.052 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | -0.027 |
| predicted_R | 0.482 | -0.027 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.531 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | -0.044 |
| predicted_SO | 0.714 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.044
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.150 | 0.150 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.287 | 0.287 |
| H | 0.763 | -0.237 |
| HR | 0.136 | 0.136 |
| RBI | 0.436 | 0.436 |
| SO | 0.781 | -0.219 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.210 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.287 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.237 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| OBP | 0.274 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.436 |
| SLG | 0.369 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.219 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.165 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.092 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.210 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.363 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.177 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.180 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.274 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.518 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.531 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.369 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.286 |
KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.233 | 0.023 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.300 | 0.026 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.408 | 0.039 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 0.2222 | 0.3636 | 0.6111 | 0.2222 | 0.1111 | 0.2222 | 0.2222 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 11.000 | 0.1765 | 0.3000 | 0.4412 | 0.1765 | 0.0588 | 0.1765 | 0.1471 | 0.3235 |
| season | 0.60 | 167 | - | 628.000 | 151.000 | 28.000 | 2.000 | 24.000 | 78.000 | 89.000 | 51.000 | 109.000 | 0.2404 | 0.3006 | 0.4061 | 0.2404 | 0.0382 | 0.1242 | 0.0812 | 0.1736 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1610 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0280 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6620 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4410 |
| predicted_H | 0.8240 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0520 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2050 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3128 |
| predicted_R | 0.4790 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5610 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4522 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7830 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1680 | 0.1610 | 0.1649 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 | 0.0280 | 0.0190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.1000 | 3.6620 | 3.9082 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2110 | 0.2250 | 0.2171 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3050 | 0.4410 | 0.3646 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8700 | 0.8240 | 0.8499 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0520 | 0.0520 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1700 | 0.2050 | 0.1853 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2990 | 0.3128 | 0.3050 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5330 | 0.4790 | 0.5093 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5600 | 0.5610 | 0.5604 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4390 | 0.4522 | 0.4448 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6530 | 0.7830 | 0.7099 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 660 |
| Season rows before report date | 660 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 167 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 645277 |
| playerID | 645277 |
| playerName | Ozzie Albies |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.298 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.273 |
| sl_xba | 0.221 |
| sl_xslg | 0.337 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 27.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.141 | 0.000 | 0.859 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.944 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.978 | 4.000 | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.278 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.283 | 0.000 | -0.033 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.406 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.422 | 0.000 | -0.422 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.005 | 0.000 | -0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.098 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.124 | 0.000 | -0.124 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.175 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.180 | 0.000 | -0.180 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.346 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.360 | 0.000 | -0.110 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.587 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.621 | 0.000 | -0.621 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.566 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.607 | 1.000 | 0.393 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.449 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.454 | 0.000 | 0.046 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.944 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.954 | 2.000 | 0.046 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1470 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8530, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.5870 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5870, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_R: 0.5870 -> 0.5036 (deboost -0.0834, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3344 -> 0.3228 (deboost -0.0116, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.5083 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4917, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4091 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4091, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.038 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4769 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4769, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3739 (boost 0.3739, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5074 (deboost -0.4926, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.3739 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6261, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1661 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1661, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4490 -> 0.4260 (deboost -0.0230, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "686948",
"player_name": "Drake Baldwin",
"position": "DH",
"team": "ATL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.147,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.944,
"predicted_AVG": 0.278,
"predicted_BB": 0.406,
"predicted_H": 1.098,
"predicted_HR": 0.175,
"predicted_OBP": 0.346,
"predicted_R": 0.587,
"predicted_RBI": 0.566,
"predicted_SLG": 0.449,
"predicted_SO": 0.944
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1566,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.9423,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2606,
"predicted_BB": 0.4112,
"predicted_H": 1.0281,
"predicted_HBP": 0.056,
"predicted_HR": 0.1532,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3344,
"predicted_R": 0.5036,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5367,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4172,
"predicted_SO": 0.9436
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.2606,
"delta": -0.0174,
"percent_delta": -0.0626,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.098,
"after": 1.0281,
"delta": -0.0699,
"percent_delta": -0.0637,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.346,
"after": 0.3344,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.0335,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.587,
"after": 0.5036,
"delta": -0.0834,
"percent_delta": -0.1421,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.449,
"after": 0.4172,
"delta": -0.0318,
"percent_delta": -0.0708,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.587,
"after": 0.5036,
"delta": -0.0834,
"percent_delta": -0.1421,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 143
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1566,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.9423,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2525,
"predicted_BB": 0.4091,
"predicted_H": 0.9954,
"predicted_HBP": 0.056,
"predicted_HR": 0.1488,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3228,
"predicted_R": 0.4769,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5083,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4057,
"predicted_SO": 0.9485
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2606,
"after": 0.2525,
"delta": -0.0081,
"percent_delta": -0.0311,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3344,
"after": 0.3228,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.0347,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4172,
"after": 0.4057,
"delta": -0.0115,
"percent_delta": -0.0276,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3344,
"after": 0.3228,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.0347,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.038",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1566,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1566,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9423,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0577,
"percent_delta": 0.0146,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4091,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4091,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.056,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.056,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1488,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1488,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5083,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4917,
"percent_delta": 0.9673,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9485,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0515,
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)",
"stats": {
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},
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"weights": {
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"bvp": 0.0571
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0074,
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},
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},
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}
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}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.259,
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},
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},
{
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}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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},
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],
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}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
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},
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},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.24,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.314,
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"predicted_TB": 2.0
},
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},
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}
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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"before": 0.587,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.566,
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"delta": 0.434,
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"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.023,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.944,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.944 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.278 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.406 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.098 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.175 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.346 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.587 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.566 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.449 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.944 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.157 | 0.010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.942 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.261 | -0.017 |
| predicted_BB | 0.411 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 1.028 | -0.070 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.056 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.153 | -0.022 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | -0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.504 | -0.083 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.537 | -0.029 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.417 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 0.944 | -0.000 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.157 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.942 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.409 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.995 | -0.033 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.056 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.149 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.323 | -0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.477 | -0.027 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.508 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.406 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.949 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.038
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.155 | 0.155 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.374 | 0.374 |
| H | 0.911 | -0.089 |
| HR | 0.166 | 0.166 |
| RBI | 0.507 | -0.493 |
| SO | 1.070 | 0.070 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.234 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.626 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.089 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| OBP | 0.307 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.493 |
| SLG | 0.406 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.070 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.157 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.058 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | -0.018 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.591 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.005 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.149 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | -0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.477 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.492 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.406 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.051 |
KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.259 | 0.025 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.336 | 0.029 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.449 | 0.043 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.1579 | 0.2727 | 0.2105 | 0.1579 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.1579 | 0.2632 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 41.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 0.1951 | 0.2667 | 0.3171 | 0.1951 | 0.0244 | 0.0976 | 0.0732 | 0.2195 |
| season | 0.60 | 143 | - | 564.000 | 157.000 | 21.000 | 0.000 | 25.000 | 81.000 | 84.000 | 58.000 | 135.000 | 0.2784 | 0.3539 | 0.4486 | 0.2784 | 0.0443 | 0.1436 | 0.1028 | 0.2394 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1690 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9400 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2381 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4180 |
| predicted_H | 0.9380 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0560 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1250 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3195 |
| predicted_R | 0.3960 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4990 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3761 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9430 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1470 | 0.1690 | 0.1566 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9440 | 3.9400 | 3.9423 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2780 | 0.2381 | 0.2606 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4060 | 0.4180 | 0.4112 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0980 | 0.9380 | 1.0281 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0560 | 0.0560 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1750 | 0.1250 | 0.1532 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3460 | 0.3195 | 0.3344 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5870 | 0.3960 | 0.5036 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5660 | 0.4990 | 0.5367 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4490 | 0.3761 | 0.4172 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9440 | 0.9430 | 0.9436 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 588 |
| Season rows before report date | 588 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 143 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 1 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 686948 |
| playerID | 686948 |
| playerName | Drake Baldwin |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.358 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.37 |
| sl_xba | 0.279 |
| sl_xslg | 0.505 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 50.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.131 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.150 | 0.000 | -0.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 | -0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.679 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.930 | 1.000 | 1.070 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.185 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.222 | 0.000 | 0.028 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.277 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.359 | 0.000 | -0.359 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.190 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.651 | 0.000 | 0.349 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.920 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.312 | 0.000 | -0.062 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.350 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.401 | 0.000 | 0.599 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.110 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.315 | 0.000 | 0.685 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.287 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.359 | 0.000 | 0.641 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.723 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.762 | 0.000 | 1.238 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 9 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 8 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.6790 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.3210, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.2770 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2770, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.1900 -> 0.3040 (boost 0.1140, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.2870 -> 0.2787 (deboost -0.0083, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.2787 -> 0.2068 (deboost -0.0719, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_AB: 2.6670 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.3330, better) | predicted_H: 0.2943 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2943, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=2.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.098 HR/AB=0.017 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2854 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2854, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 0.7416 (boost 0.7416, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.7416 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2584, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4124 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4124, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3610 -> 0.4000 (boost 0.0390, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4000 -> 0.3620 (deboost -0.0380, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "573262",
"player_name": "Mike Yastrzemski",
"position": "LF",
"team": "ATL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.131,
"predicted_3B": 0.007,
"predicted_AB": 2.679,
"predicted_AVG": 0.185,
"predicted_BB": 0.277,
"predicted_H": 0.19,
"predicted_HR": 0.04,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 0.35,
"predicted_RBI": 0.11,
"predicted_SLG": 0.287,
"predicted_SO": 0.723
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1095,
"predicted_3B": 0.0061,
"predicted_AB": 2.667,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1792,
"predicted_BB": 0.2456,
"predicted_H": 0.304,
"predicted_HBP": 0.014,
"predicted_HR": 0.0465,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2132,
"predicted_R": 0.3014,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1792,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2787,
"predicted_SO": 0.7441
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.185,
"after": 0.1792,
"delta": -0.0058,
"percent_delta": -0.0314,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.304,
"delta": 0.114,
"percent_delta": 0.6,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.2132,
"delta": 0.0132,
"percent_delta": 0.066,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.1792,
"delta": 0.0692,
"percent_delta": 0.6291,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.287,
"after": 0.2787,
"delta": -0.0083,
"percent_delta": -0.0289,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.304,
"delta": 0.114,
"percent_delta": 0.6,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.287,
"after": 0.2787,
"delta": -0.0083,
"percent_delta": -0.0289,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 137
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1095,
"predicted_3B": 0.0061,
"predicted_AB": 2.667,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1104,
"predicted_BB": 0.2443,
"predicted_H": 0.2943,
"predicted_HBP": 0.014,
"predicted_HR": 0.0452,
"predicted_OBP": 0.185,
"predicted_R": 0.2854,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1697,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2068,
"predicted_SO": 0.748
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1792,
"after": 0.1104,
"delta": -0.0688,
"percent_delta": -0.3839,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2132,
"after": 0.185,
"delta": -0.0282,
"percent_delta": -0.1323,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2787,
"after": 0.2068,
"delta": -0.0719,
"percent_delta": -0.258,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2787,
"after": 0.2068,
"delta": -0.0719,
"percent_delta": -0.258,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=2.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.098 HR/AB=0.017",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1095,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1095,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)",
"stats": {
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"weights": {
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}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0102,
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},
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}
],
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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],
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}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.232,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.311,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.4,
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},
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},
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},
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}
],
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
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}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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],
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}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.199,
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"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
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"predicted_SB": 0.0,
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"predicted_TB": 4.0
},
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},
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},
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}
],
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.11,
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"delta": 0.89,
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},
{
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"before": 0.287,
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"delta": 0.075,
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},
{
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"before": 0.723,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 2,
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.131 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.679 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.185 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.350 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.287 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.723 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.110 | -0.022 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.667 | -0.012 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.179 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.246 | -0.031 |
| predicted_H | 0.304 | 0.114 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.014 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.046 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.213 | 0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.301 | -0.049 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.179 | 0.069 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.279 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.744 | 0.021 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.110 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.667 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.110 | -0.069 |
| predicted_BB | 0.244 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.294 | -0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.045 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.185 | -0.028 |
| predicted_R | 0.285 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.170 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.207 | -0.072 |
| predicted_SO | 0.748 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=2.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.098 HR/AB=0.017
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.154 | 0.154 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.343 | 0.343 |
| H | 0.742 | 0.742 |
| HR | 0.121 | 0.121 |
| RBI | 0.412 | 0.412 |
| SO | 1.138 | 0.138 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.154 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.209 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.343 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.258 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.121 |
| OBP | 0.284 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.412 |
| SLG | 0.361 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.138 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.110 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 1.333 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | 0.099 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.244 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.706 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.045 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.284 | 0.099 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.285 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.170 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.361 | 0.154 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.252 |
KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.232 | 0.023 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.311 | 0.027 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.400 | 0.039 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 11.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.0909 | 0.0909 | 0.0909 | 0.0909 | 0.0000 | 0.0909 | 0.0000 | 0.3636 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 26.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 0.0769 | 0.1429 | 0.0769 | 0.0769 | 0.0000 | 0.0769 | 0.0769 | 0.3077 |
| season | 0.60 | 137 | - | 367.000 | 81.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 | 12.000 | 41.000 | 48.000 | 38.000 | 99.000 | 0.2207 | 0.2976 | 0.3733 | 0.2207 | 0.0327 | 0.1117 | 0.1035 | 0.2697 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0050 |
| predicted_AB | 2.6510 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1716 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2040 |
| predicted_H | 0.4550 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0140 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0550 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2308 |
| predicted_R | 0.2370 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2710 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2677 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7720 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1310 | 0.0810 | 0.1095 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 | 0.0050 | 0.0061 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.6790 | 2.6510 | 2.6670 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1850 | 0.1716 | 0.1792 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2770 | 0.2040 | 0.2456 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.1900 | 0.4550 | 0.3040 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0140 | 0.0140 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 | 0.0550 | 0.0465 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2000 | 0.2308 | 0.2132 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3500 | 0.2370 | 0.3014 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1100 | 0.2710 | 0.1792 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2870 | 0.2677 | 0.2787 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7230 | 0.7720 | 0.7441 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 387 |
| Season rows before report date | 387 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 137 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 573262 |
| note | Grounded out for Thomas, L in the 9th. |
| playerID | 573262 |
| playerName | Mike Yastrzemski |
| pos | LF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.306 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.309 |
| sl_xba | 0.235 |
| sl_xslg | 0.368 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.184 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.192 | 0.000 | -0.192 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.722 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.822 | 4.000 | 0.178 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.278 | 0.250 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.234 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.247 | 0.000 | -0.247 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.025 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.062 | 1.000 | -0.062 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.076 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.081 | 0.000 | 0.919 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.325 | 0.250 | -0.075 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.424 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.447 | 1.000 | 0.553 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.468 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.509 | 0.000 | 0.491 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.403 | 0.250 | 0.597 | 0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.500 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.487 | 0.000 | 0.513 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.0760 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.9240, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.2340 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2340, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3960 -> 0.3807 (deboost -0.0153, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3807 -> 0.3706 (deboost -0.0101, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5425 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4575, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4172 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4172, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.019 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3837 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3837, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4597 (boost 0.4597, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.6282 (deboost -0.3718, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_RBI: 0.4597 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5403, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2233 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2233, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3690 -> 0.4090 (boost 0.0400, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "643289",
"player_name": "Mauricio Dubón",
"position": "SS",
"team": "ATL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.184,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 3.722,
"predicted_AVG": 0.276,
"predicted_BB": 0.234,
"predicted_H": 1.025,
"predicted_HR": 0.076,
"predicted_OBP": 0.318,
"predicted_R": 0.424,
"predicted_RBI": 0.468,
"predicted_SLG": 0.396,
"predicted_SO": 0.5
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1617,
"predicted_3B": 0.0159,
"predicted_AB": 3.7364,
"predicted_AVG": 0.271,
"predicted_BB": 0.2537,
"predicted_H": 1.011,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.0729,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3178,
"predicted_R": 0.4052,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4405,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3807,
"predicted_SO": 0.5397
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.271,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0181,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.3807,
"delta": -0.0153,
"percent_delta": -0.0386,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.3807,
"delta": -0.0153,
"percent_delta": -0.0386,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 158
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1617,
"predicted_3B": 0.0159,
"predicted_AB": 3.7364,
"predicted_AVG": 0.262,
"predicted_BB": 0.2524,
"predicted_H": 0.9789,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.0708,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3087,
"predicted_R": 0.3837,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4172,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3706,
"predicted_SO": 0.5425
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.271,
"after": 0.262,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -0.0332,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3178,
"after": 0.3087,
"delta": -0.0091,
"percent_delta": -0.0286,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3807,
"after": 0.3706,
"delta": -0.0101,
"percent_delta": -0.0265,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3807,
"after": 0.3706,
"delta": -0.0101,
"percent_delta": -0.0265,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.019",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1617,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1617,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7364,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.2636,
"percent_delta": 0.0705,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2524,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2524,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0708,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0708,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": -0.4172,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.5425,
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"delta": 0.4575,
"percent_delta": 0.8433,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0129,
"predicted_BB": 0.2233,
"predicted_H": 0.8574,
"predicted_HR": 0.0937,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4597,
"predicted_SO": 0.6282
},
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{
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}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.239,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.29,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.369,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.239,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.29,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.369,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.265,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.318,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.409,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"before": 0.239,
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"delta": 0.026,
"percent_delta": 0.1088,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.318,
"delta": 0.028,
"percent_delta": 0.0966,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.369,
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}
],
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}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter",
"stats": {},
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"summary": {
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}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.265,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.318,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.409,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 4.0
},
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}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.184,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.184,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"percent_delta": 0.0747,
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.013,
"percent_delta": 0.0328,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"before": 0.5,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.184 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.722 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.234 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.025 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.076 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.424 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.468 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.500 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.162 | -0.022 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.736 | 0.014 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.271 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.254 | 0.020 |
| predicted_H | 1.011 | -0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.073 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | -0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.405 | -0.019 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.441 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.381 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 0.540 | 0.040 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.162 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.736 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.262 | -0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.252 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.979 | -0.032 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.071 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.384 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.417 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.371 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.542 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.019
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.157 | 0.157 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.223 | 0.223 |
| H | 0.857 | -0.143 |
| HR | 0.094 | 0.094 |
| RBI | 0.460 | 0.460 |
| SO | 0.628 | -0.372 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.157 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.239 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.223 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.143 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.094 |
| OBP | 0.290 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.540 |
| SLG | 0.369 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.372 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.162 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.264 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | -0.023 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.252 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.021 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.071 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | -0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.384 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.583 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.369 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.458 |
KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.265 | 0.026 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.318 | 0.028 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.409 | 0.040 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2857 | 0.2105 | 0.2105 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.1053 | 0.2105 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.2895 | 0.3415 | 0.3947 | 0.2895 | 0.0263 | 0.1053 | 0.0790 | 0.1579 |
| season | 0.60 | 158 | - | 588.000 | 162.000 | 29.000 | 3.000 | 12.000 | 74.000 | 67.000 | 37.000 | 79.000 | 0.2755 | 0.3212 | 0.3963 | 0.2755 | 0.0204 | 0.1258 | 0.0629 | 0.1343 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1330 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7550 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2645 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2790 |
| predicted_H | 0.9930 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0690 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3176 |
| predicted_R | 0.3810 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4050 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3610 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5910 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1840 | 0.1330 | 0.1617 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 | 0.0120 | 0.0159 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7220 | 3.7550 | 3.7364 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2760 | 0.2645 | 0.2710 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2340 | 0.2790 | 0.2537 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0250 | 0.9930 | 1.0110 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0160 | 0.0160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0760 | 0.0690 | 0.0729 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3180 | 0.3176 | 0.3178 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4240 | 0.3810 | 0.4052 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4680 | 0.4050 | 0.4405 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3960 | 0.3610 | 0.3807 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5000 | 0.5910 | 0.5397 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 595 |
| Season rows before report date | 595 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 158 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF-SS |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 643289 |
| playerID | 643289 |
| playerName | Mauricio Dubón |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 11.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.317 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.304 |
| sl_xba | 0.268 |
| sl_xslg | 0.375 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 15.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.122 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.137 | 0.000 | -0.137 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.524 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.610 | 3.000 | 0.390 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.183 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.226 | 0.000 | -0.226 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.311 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.317 | 0.000 | -0.317 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.630 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.816 | 0.000 | -0.816 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.117 | 0.000 | -0.117 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.280 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.302 | 0.000 | -0.302 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.402 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.429 | 0.000 | -0.429 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.477 | 0.000 | -0.477 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.368 | 0.000 | -0.368 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.238 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.263 | 2.000 | 1.737 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.2380 -> 3.0000 (boost 1.7620, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.6300 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6300, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3300 -> 0.3130 (deboost -0.0170, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2785 -> 0.2438 (deboost -0.0347, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | - | predicted_H: 0.5816 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5816, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.147 HR/AB=0.037 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.083) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3571 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3571, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 0.6597 (boost 0.6597, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | predicted_SO: 1.4549 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.5451, worse) | predicted_H: 0.6597 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6597, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2200 -> 0.2060 (deboost -0.0140, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663586",
"player_name": "Austin Riley",
"position": "3B",
"team": "ATL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.122,
"predicted_3B": 0.012,
"predicted_AB": 3.524,
"predicted_AVG": 0.183,
"predicted_BB": 0.311,
"predicted_H": 0.63,
"predicted_HR": 0.15,
"predicted_OBP": 0.28,
"predicted_R": 0.402,
"predicted_RBI": 0.39,
"predicted_SLG": 0.33,
"predicted_SO": 1.238
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1015,
"predicted_3B": 0.0098,
"predicted_AB": 3.4755,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1751,
"predicted_BB": 0.353,
"predicted_H": 0.6007,
"predicted_HBP": 0.127,
"predicted_HR": 0.1343,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2785,
"predicted_R": 0.3771,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3834,
"predicted_SLG": 0.313,
"predicted_SO": 1.2258
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.183,
"after": 0.1751,
"delta": -0.0079,
"percent_delta": -0.0432,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.313,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -0.0515,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.313,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -0.0515,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 164
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1015,
"predicted_3B": 0.0098,
"predicted_AB": 3.4755,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1673,
"predicted_BB": 0.3512,
"predicted_H": 0.5816,
"predicted_HBP": 0.127,
"predicted_HR": 0.1305,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2438,
"predicted_R": 0.3571,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3631,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3148,
"predicted_SO": 1.2322
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1751,
"after": 0.1673,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.0445,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2785,
"after": 0.2438,
"delta": -0.0347,
"percent_delta": -0.1246,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2785,
"after": 0.2438,
"delta": -0.0347,
"percent_delta": -0.1246,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.147 HR/AB=0.037",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1015,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1015,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4755,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4755,
"percent_delta": -0.1368,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3512,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3512,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5816,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5816,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.127,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.127,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1305,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1305,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3631,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3631,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.2322,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.2322,
"percent_delta": -0.1884,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5816,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5816,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.083)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.8857,
"bvp": 0.1143
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3571,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3571,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3571,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3571,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1182,
"predicted_3B": 0.0094,
"predicted_BB": 0.2632,
"predicted_H": 0.6597,
"predicted_HR": 0.1125,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4168,
"predicted_SO": 1.4549
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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"material": true
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{
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{
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],
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}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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},
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},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_R": 0.0,
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"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
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}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.122 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.524 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.183 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.311 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.630 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.280 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.402 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.238 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.102 | -0.020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.475 | -0.049 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.175 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.353 | 0.042 |
| predicted_H | 0.601 | -0.029 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.127 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.134 | -0.016 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.279 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.377 | -0.025 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.383 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.313 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 1.226 | -0.012 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.102 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.475 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.167 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.351 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.582 | -0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.127 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.131 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.244 | -0.035 |
| predicted_R | 0.357 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.363 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.315 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 1.232 | 0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.147 HR/AB=0.037
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.083)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.118 | 0.118 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.263 | 0.263 |
| H | 0.660 | 0.660 |
| HR | 0.113 | 0.113 |
| RBI | 0.417 | 0.417 |
| SO | 1.455 | 0.455 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.118 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.198 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.263 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.660 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.113 |
| OBP | 0.263 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.417 |
| SLG | 0.341 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.545 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.102 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.475 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.198 | 0.031 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.351 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.582 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.131 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.263 | 0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.357 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.363 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.341 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 0.768 |
KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.220 | 0.022 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.288 | 0.025 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.377 | 0.036 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 3.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.0625 | 0.2500 | 0.0625 | 0.0625 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1875 | 0.3750 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 12.000 | 0.0938 | 0.2500 | 0.2812 | 0.0938 | 0.0625 | 0.1562 | 0.1562 | 0.3750 |
| season | 0.60 | 164 | - | 578.000 | 125.000 | 20.000 | 2.000 | 20.000 | 75.000 | 66.000 | 51.000 | 203.000 | 0.2163 | 0.2921 | 0.3616 | 0.2163 | 0.0346 | 0.1298 | 0.0882 | 0.3512 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0750 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4130 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1649 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4070 |
| predicted_H | 0.5630 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1270 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1140 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2766 |
| predicted_R | 0.3450 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3750 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2911 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2100 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1220 | 0.0750 | 0.1015 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 | 0.0070 | 0.0098 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5240 | 3.4130 | 3.4755 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1830 | 0.1649 | 0.1751 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3110 | 0.4070 | 0.3530 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6300 | 0.5630 | 0.6007 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1270 | 0.1270 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1500 | 0.1140 | 0.1343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2800 | 0.2766 | 0.2785 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4020 | 0.3450 | 0.3771 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3900 | 0.3750 | 0.3834 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3300 | 0.2911 | 0.3130 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.2380 | 1.2100 | 1.2258 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 608 |
| Season rows before report date | 608 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 164 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663586 |
| playerID | 663586 |
| playerName | Austin Riley |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.29 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.299 |
| sl_xba | 0.213 |
| sl_xslg | 0.396 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.139 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.151 | 0.000 | -0.151 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.250 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.434 | 1.000 | -0.434 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.197 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.198 | 0.000 | 0.136 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.361 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.321 | 1.000 | -0.321 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.530 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.679 | 0.000 | 0.321 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.132 | 0.000 | -0.132 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.266 | 0.500 | 0.067 | -0.167 |
| predicted_R | 0.361 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.415 | 0.000 | 0.585 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.230 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.425 | 0.000 | -0.425 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.349 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.357 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 1.083 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.226 | 1.000 | -0.226 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.3610 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6390, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.3610 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3610, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.5300 -> 0.6059 (boost 0.0759, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0830 -> 1.0099 (deboost -0.0731, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3102 -> 0.2666 (deboost -0.0436, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | predicted_H: 0.5866 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5866, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.160 HR/AB=0.033 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.3501 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3501, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3511 (boost 0.3511, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6502 (deboost -0.3498, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 5 | predicted_SLG: 0.3273 -> 0.3650 (boost 0.0377, better) | predicted_H: 0.6502 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6502, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3650 -> 0.4050 (boost 0.0400, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4050 -> 0.3660 (deboost -0.0390, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669221",
"player_name": "Sean Murphy",
"position": "C",
"team": "ATL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.139,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.25,
"predicted_AVG": 0.197,
"predicted_BB": 0.361,
"predicted_H": 0.53,
"predicted_HR": 0.1,
"predicted_OBP": 0.309,
"predicted_R": 0.361,
"predicted_RBI": 0.23,
"predicted_SLG": 0.349,
"predicted_SO": 1.083
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1437,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.233,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2081,
"predicted_BB": 0.3772,
"predicted_H": 0.6059,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.1119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3102,
"predicted_R": 0.3697,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2494,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3674,
"predicted_SO": 1.0099
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.197,
"after": 0.2081,
"delta": 0.0111,
"percent_delta": 0.0563,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.53,
"after": 0.6059,
"delta": 0.0759,
"percent_delta": 0.1432,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.349,
"after": 0.3674,
"delta": 0.0184,
"percent_delta": 0.0527,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.083,
"after": 1.0099,
"delta": -0.0731,
"percent_delta": -0.0675,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.53,
"after": 0.6059,
"delta": 0.0759,
"percent_delta": 0.1432,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.083,
"after": 1.0099,
"delta": -0.0731,
"percent_delta": -0.0675,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 36
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1437,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.233,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1815,
"predicted_BB": 0.3752,
"predicted_H": 0.5866,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.1087,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2666,
"predicted_R": 0.3501,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2362,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3273,
"predicted_SO": 1.0152
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2081,
"after": 0.1815,
"delta": -0.0266,
"percent_delta": -0.1278,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3102,
"after": 0.2666,
"delta": -0.0436,
"percent_delta": -0.1406,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3674,
"after": 0.3273,
"delta": -0.0401,
"percent_delta": -0.1091,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3102,
"after": 0.2666,
"delta": -0.0436,
"percent_delta": -0.1406,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.160 HR/AB=0.033",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1437,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1437,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.233,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.233,
"percent_delta": -0.0721,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3752,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3752,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5866,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5866,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1087,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1087,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2362,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2362,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5866,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5866,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3501,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3501,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3501,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3501,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1288,
"predicted_3B": 0.0087,
"predicted_BB": 0.2854,
"predicted_H": 0.6502,
"predicted_HR": 0.1109,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3511,
"predicted_SO": 1.1355
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1288,
"delta": 0.1288,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
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{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
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"stats": {
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
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},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
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{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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},
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"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
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"predicted_OBP": 0.28,
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"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 1.0
},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.139 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.250 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.197 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.361 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.530 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.361 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.230 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.349 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.083 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.144 | 0.005 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.233 | -0.017 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.377 | 0.016 |
| predicted_H | 0.606 | 0.076 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.112 | 0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.370 | 0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.249 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.367 | 0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 1.010 | -0.073 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.144 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.233 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.181 | -0.027 |
| predicted_BB | 0.375 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.587 | -0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.109 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.267 | -0.044 |
| predicted_R | 0.350 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.236 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.327 | -0.040 |
| predicted_SO | 1.015 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.160 HR/AB=0.033
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.129 | 0.129 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.285 | 0.285 |
| H | 0.650 | -0.350 |
| HR | 0.111 | 0.111 |
| RBI | 0.351 | 0.351 |
| SO | 1.135 | 0.135 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.129 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.210 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.285 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.650 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.111 |
| OBP | 0.283 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.351 |
| SLG | 0.365 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.135 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.144 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.233 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.210 | 0.028 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.375 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.587 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.109 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | 0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.350 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.236 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.365 | 0.038 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.015 |
KPI club run ratio x1.228 applied to runs and RBI, x1.108 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.233 | 0.023 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.310 | 0.027 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.405 | 0.040 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.3571 | 0.4375 | 0.6429 | 0.3571 | 0.0714 | 0.0714 | 0.1429 | 0.2143 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 28.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 0.1786 | 0.3235 | 0.3214 | 0.1786 | 0.0357 | 0.0357 | 0.2143 | 0.2500 |
| season | 0.60 | 36 | - | 117.000 | 22.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 11.000 | 13.000 | 13.000 | 39.000 | 0.1880 | 0.2692 | 0.3333 | 0.1880 | 0.0342 | 0.0940 | 0.1111 | 0.3333 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1510 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2070 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2252 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4020 |
| predicted_H | 0.7220 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3121 |
| predicted_R | 0.3830 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2790 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3955 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8980 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1390 | 0.1510 | 0.1437 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.2500 | 3.2070 | 3.2330 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1970 | 0.2252 | 0.2081 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3610 | 0.4020 | 0.3772 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.5300 | 0.7220 | 0.6059 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1000 | 0.1300 | 0.1119 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3090 | 0.3121 | 0.3102 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3610 | 0.3830 | 0.3697 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2300 | 0.2790 | 0.2494 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3490 | 0.3955 | 0.3674 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0830 | 0.8980 | 1.0099 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 106 |
| Season rows before report date | 106 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 36 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20261004_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669221 |
| playerID | 669221 |
| playerName | Sean Murphy |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-04 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.252 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.273 |
| sl_xba | 0.206 |
| sl_xslg | 0.332 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 26.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 5.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.300 | 1.000 | 1.700 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_H | 4.900 | 6.000 | 1.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 6.040 | 7.000 | -1.040 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_SO | 5.400 | 6.000 | -1.400 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 4 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 3.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 6.0000 -> 5.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score |
| 8 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 3.0000, better) | predicted_IP: 6.0000 -> 5.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 9 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "641816",
"player_name": "Tyler Mahle",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "ATL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.1667,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": 3.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": 3.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.1667,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.1667,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": 3.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": 3.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.1667,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 2.000 | - |
| BF | 23.000 | - |
| ER | 3.000 | - |
| H | 6.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 5.000 | - |
| Pitches | 85.000 | - |
| R | 3.000 | - |
| SO | 4.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 31.000 | 8.000 | 25.000 | 5.000 | 22.000 | 3.000 | 2.3226 | 0.9677 | 0.2581 | 0.8065 | 0.1613 | 0.7097 | 0.0968 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 61.100 | 13.000 | 49.000 | 10.000 | 54.000 | 6.000 | 1.9076 | 0.9620 | 0.2120 | 0.7989 | 0.1630 | 0.8804 | 0.0978 |
| season | 0.20 | 28 | 156.000 | 67.000 | 144.000 | 47.000 | 143.000 | 20.000 | 3.8654 | 1.2244 | 0.4295 | 0.9231 | 0.3013 | 0.9167 | 0.1282 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.3280 |
| predicted_ER | 1.8950 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.8099 |
| predicted_H | 5.1670 |
| predicted_HR | 0.6690 |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 5.0360 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0699 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 1.3280 | 1.6062 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 1.8950 | 1.5245 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.8099 | 2.8099 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 5.0000 | 5.1670 | 5.0979 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.6690 | 0.3920 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 | 6.0000 | 6.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 5.0360 | 3.3651 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0699 | 1.0699 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 10 |
| Season rows before report date | 10 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 28 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.0 |
| H | 6 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 4 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 23 |
| Pitches | 85 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 28 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.29 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 3 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 9 |
| Pitching_H | 6 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 7.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 95 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 6 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 66 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 641816 |
| playerID | 641816 |
| playerName | Tyler Mahle |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.311 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.306 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 80.019062512 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.831595995 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.971 | 1.000 | -0.971 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.853 | 1.000 | 0.147 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 4.235 | 2.000 | -3.235 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.488 | 0.200 | -2.488 | 1.800 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 3.471 | 0.000 | -1.471 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 3 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_ER: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | predicted_ER: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | - | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656550",
"player_name": "Grant Holmes",
"position": "Long Reliever",
"team": "ATL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 2.0,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| BF | 8.000 | - |
| ER | 2.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HR | 1.000 | - |
| IP | 2.000 | - |
| Pitches | 30.000 | - |
| R | 2.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 16.200 | 7.000 | 20.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 3.7800 | 1.6200 | 0.4200 | 1.2000 | 0.4200 | 0.3600 | 0.2400 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 40.100 | 16.000 | 38.000 | 16.000 | 22.000 | 5.000 | 3.5702 | 1.3388 | 0.3967 | 0.9422 | 0.3967 | 0.5454 | 0.1240 |
| season | 0.20 | 34 | 156.100 | 63.000 | 144.000 | 67.000 | 118.000 | 23.000 | 3.6269 | 1.3497 | 0.4030 | 0.9211 | 0.4286 | 0.7548 | 0.1471 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.4730 |
| predicted_ER | 1.5180 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.7976 |
| predicted_H | 3.7610 |
| predicted_HR | 0.6360 |
| predicted_IP | 3.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 2.0120 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4545 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 1.4730 | 0.8777 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 1.5180 | 0.9045 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.7976 | 3.7976 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 3.7610 | 2.6451 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.6360 | 0.3790 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 2.0000 | 3.2000 | 3.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 2.0120 | 2.0072 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4545 | 1.4545 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 34 |
| Season rows before report date | 34 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 34 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 2.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 8 |
| Pitches | 30 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 6.75 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 17 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261004_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656550 |
| playerID | 656550 |
| playerName | Grant Holmes |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-04 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.314 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.342 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 45.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 82.097232183 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.933788534 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.275 | 0.000 | -0.275 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.294 | 0.000 | 0.706 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 0.686 | 1.000 | 1.314 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.951 | 1.000 | 1.049 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.157 | 2.000 | 0.843 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 5 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_ER: 5.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -4.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_ER: 5.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -4.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "689266",
"player_name": "Dylan Dodd",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "ATL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 5.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 2.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -4.0,
"percent_delta": -0.8,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -0.6,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -4.0,
"percent_delta": -0.8,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -4.0,
"percent_delta": -0.8,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -0.6,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -4.0,
"percent_delta": -0.8,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 8.000 | - |
| ER | 1.000 | - |
| H | 2.000 | - |
| HR | 1.000 | - |
| IP | 2.000 | - |
| Pitches | 28.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 7.200 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 3.5217 | 0.9130 | 0.3913 | 0.9130 | 0.0000 | 1.1739 | 0.1304 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 11.100 | 5.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 15.000 | 3.000 | 3.9706 | 0.8824 | 0.4412 | 0.7941 | 0.0882 | 1.3235 | 0.2647 |
| season | 0.20 | 51 | 54.100 | 15.000 | 35.000 | 14.000 | 59.000 | 7.000 | 2.4847 | 0.9018 | 0.2761 | 0.6442 | 0.2577 | 1.0859 | 0.1288 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2100 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5130 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.8269 |
| predicted_H | 1.0500 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2030 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3570 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0436 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 0.2100 | 1.0697 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 5.0000 | 0.5130 | 2.6679 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.8269 | 3.8269 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 5.0000 | 1.0500 | 2.9470 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.2030 | 0.5858 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.1000 | 1.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.3570 | 0.7053 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0436 | 1.0436 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 51 |
| Season rows before report date | 51 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 51 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 2.0 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 8 |
| Pitches | 28 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.93 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 17 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 11 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261006_LAD@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 689266 |
| playerID | 689266 |
| playerName | Dylan Dodd |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.26 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.273 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 80.094113934 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.49856377 |
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | MIL 6 - 5 SD | MIL | 0.505 | enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target | True |
| Simulation draw | MIL 6 - 5 SD | MIL | - | organic_simulation_realized_target | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.5045; empirical=0.5485; weight=0.4500; final=0.5243 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=7; abs=7; home delta=0.0404; away delta=-0.0404 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=2.2500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=-1.1790; recent edge=0.1240; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 6.4000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5050 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_simulation_realized_target |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 8 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 4.317 | 3.958 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 4 | 4 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.5050 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run) |
| 4 | kpi_layer | 4 | 5 | - | Savant KPI blend applied to the model target |
| 5 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 6 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 6 | 5 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 7 | capped_target | 6 | 5 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 8 | simulation_result | 6 | 5 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.7122387300296822,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.4275618374558304,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5075618374558304,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.2846768925738518,
"confidence": 0.9,
"factors": {
"environmental": 1.0710000000000002,
"pitcher_form": 1.4520000000000002,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.0712000000000002,
"combined": 1.6658145504000006
},
"prediction": "low_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 11,
"score_scale_mode": "control",
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 6.4,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 6.4,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 11,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
}{
"method": "monotone_reliability_shrinkage",
"policy": "shrink_toward_even_score_floor_v3",
"sample_size": 567,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 567,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 789,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 893,
"global_sample_size": 1135,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5485,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.547,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5,
"raw_pick_probability_unclamped": 0.4991,
"score_probability_conflict": true,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.5033,
"margin_implied_pick_probability": 0.5033,
"score_blend_weight": 0.45,
"blended_raw_pick_probability": 0.5015,
"score_implied_floor_pick_probability": 0.5032,
"max_published_pick_probability": 0.9,
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.49913,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.50087,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.505,
"predicted_side": "home",
"reliability": 0.969231,
"shrink_floor": 0.35,
"empirical_penalty": 1.0,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.98
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.504492,
"sample_size": 567,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5485,
"empirical_weight": 0.45,
"empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
"empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
"blended_confidence": 0.524296,
"published_confidence": 0.505,
"published_after_governors": true,
"governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": 7.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
"home_average_margin": 1.4,
"home_run_delta": 0.0404,
"away_run_delta": -0.0404,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 9.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -6.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 2.0
}
],
"adaptive_parameters": {
"h2h.history_limit": 5,
"h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
"h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
"h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
}
}{
"applied": true,
"home": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617283950617284,
"runs_scored": 722,
"runs_allowed": 681,
"run_differential": 41,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.25308641975308643,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358024691358025,
"runs_scored": 832,
"runs_allowed": 618,
"run_differential": 214,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.3209876543209877,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.0679,
"win_pct_edge": -0.0741,
"quality_edge": -0.723,
"season_quality_edge": -1.179,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": -1.179,
"recent_quality_edge": 0.124,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "conflict",
"blended_quality_edge": -0.723
},
"margin_adjustment": -0.3037,
"reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
"margin_adjustment_policy": {
"adjustment": -0.3037,
"cap": 1.4,
"scale": 0.42,
"quality_edge": -0.723,
"season_quality_edge": -1.179,
"recent_alignment": "conflict",
"large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
"method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 4.261,
"home_runs": 3.769,
"home_win_probability": 0.4582
}
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.02027699864654153
},
{
"home_runs": 5,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.019270353943855057
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.019194832702538276
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.019163729559404433
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.019112176732514634
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.057878380388167616,
"1": 0.08543432439696529,
"2": 0.11296422029027611,
"3": 0.13379562991725308,
"4": 0.14195001672048477,
"5": 0.13490295640999328,
"6": 0.11484179887848654,
"7": 0.0875731569195755,
"8": 0.059818363148433945,
"9": 0.03660079712742226,
"10": 0.02006037572285571,
"11": 0.009848726603451263,
"12": 0.004331253476634715
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.058821078416750536,
"1": 0.08677233064039432,
"2": 0.11452137735737351,
"3": 0.13522247581227848,
"4": 0.14284604619997457,
"5": 0.13500336246624,
"6": 0.1141505391270846,
"7": 0.08635119834475068,
"8": 0.058440751389698314,
"9": 0.03538508423048862,
"10": 0.01916821608854328,
"11": 0.009289667716227187,
"12": 0.004027872210195613
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 2.25,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "SD",
"opponent_team": "MIL",
"h2h_net_margin": 11,
"recent_h2h": [
{
"date": "2026-08-12",
"predicted_team_runs": 4,
"opponent_runs": 3,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 1,
"winner": "SD"
},
{
"date": "2026-08-11",
"predicted_team_runs": 11,
"opponent_runs": 2,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 9,
"winner": "SD"
},
{
"date": "2026-08-10",
"predicted_team_runs": 3,
"opponent_runs": 2,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 1,
"winner": "SD"
}
],
"prediction_memory": {
"available": true,
"reason": "verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available",
"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
"verified_outcome_count": 6,
"consecutive_same_pick_count": 1,
"same_pick_actual_loss_count": 0,
"same_pick_blowout_loss_count": 0,
"prior_predictions": [
{
"date": "20261006",
"away": "MIL",
"home": "SD",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "SD",
"actual_winner": "SD",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.56643,
"artifact": "20261006_MIL@SD.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20261004",
"away": "SD",
"home": "MIL",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "MIL",
"actual_winner": "MIL",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.553789,
"artifact": "20261004_SD@MIL.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20261003",
"away": "SD",
"home": "MIL",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "MIL",
"actual_winner": "MIL",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.53,
"artifact": "20261003_SD@MIL.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260812",
"away": "MIL",
"home": "SD",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "SD",
"actual_winner": "SD",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.51,
"artifact": "20260812_MIL@SD.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260811",
"away": "MIL",
"home": "SD",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "MIL",
"actual_winner": "SD",
"actual_margin": 9,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.51256,
"artifact": "20260811_MIL@SD.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "SD",
"guardrail_opponent_team": "MIL",
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "MIL",
"output_opponent_team": "SD",
"simulation_score_winner": "MIL",
"final_score_winner": "MIL",
"pre_simulation_winner": "MIL",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false
}
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"policy": "recency_uncertainty_shrinkage_v2",
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617283950617284,
"runs_scored": 722,
"runs_allowed": 681,
"run_differential": 41,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.25308641975308643,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358024691358025,
"runs_scored": 832,
"runs_allowed": 618,
"run_differential": 214,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.3209876543209877,
"available": true
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_margin": 0.0447,
"final_margin": 0.0447,
"margin_cap": 1.5,
"season_quality_edge": 0.723,
"reason": "raw target margin within supported range"
}{
"applied": true,
"policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
"raw_confidence": 0.524296,
"final_confidence": 0.505,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.505,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.98,
"hard_maximum": 0.9,
"confidence_floor": 0.505,
"score_gap": 0.0447,
"calibration_sample_size": 567,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5485,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.547,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 0.723,
"reasons": [
"confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
],
"score_coherence": {
"policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"published_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
},
"margin": 1,
"probability_before": 0.505,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.572388,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.98,
"side_flipped": false,
"applied": false,
"magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
"probability_after": 0.505,
"aligned_pick_probability": 0.505
},
"starter_experience": {
"applied": false,
"min_starter_games": 21,
"shrink_factor": 1.0
}
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD",
"winner": "MIL"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD",
"winner": "MIL"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0447,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.334,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner": "MIL",
"model_winner": "MIL",
"simulation_winner": "MIL",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 6,
"published_winner": "MIL",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667,
"draw_majority_team": "SD",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.723,
"winner": "MIL",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"confidence": 0.505,
"home_win_probability": 0.495,
"away_win_probability": 0.505,
"predicted_score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD",
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.495,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.505,
"confidence_shrinkage": {
"policy": "starter_quality_shrinkage_v3",
"staged_confidence": 0.505,
"discount_factor": 0.85,
"published_confidence": 0.505,
"guardrail_confidence_cap": null,
"guardrail_cap_enforced": false,
"guardrail_soft_ceiling_applied": false,
"confidence_before_ceiling": 0.505,
"applied_discounts": [
{
"reason": "projected_margin_is_one_run",
"factor": 0.85
}
]
},
"score_probability_reconciliation": {
"policy": "published_probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"incoming_home_win_probability": 0.385805,
"incoming_favoured_side": "away",
"score_winner_side": "away",
"published_home_win_probability": 0.495,
"probability_side_reverted_by_score": false,
"note": "The probability and the projected score agree on the winner."
},
"confidence_note": "Probability shrunk toward even by starter-quality and guardrail discounts; no per-game clamp is applied. Discounts: projected_margin_is_one_run x0.85.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"predicted_score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD",
"confidence": 0.505,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD",
"winner": "MIL"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD",
"winner": "MIL"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0447,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.334,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner": "MIL",
"model_winner": "MIL",
"simulation_winner": "MIL",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 6,
"published_winner": "MIL",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667,
"draw_majority_team": "SD",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.723,
"winner": "MIL",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away MIL | True | 1.0370 | 1.0370 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home SD | True | 1.0319 | 1.0319 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LF | Jackson Chourio | - | 1.0702 | 0.9355 | neutral | 0.3440 | 0.2650 | 0.4750 | 12.30 | 47 | 91.60 | 11.80 | 25.10 | 23.40 | 8.20 | -0.4857 |
| DH | Christian Yelich | - | 1.0168 | 0.2241 | neutral | 0.3080 | 0.2300 | 0.3850 | 9.60 | 42.90 | 88.90 | 4 | 29.60 | 27 | 9.80 | 0.0857 |
| C | William Contreras | - | 1.0555 | 0.7396 | neutral | 0.3340 | 0.2610 | 0.4410 | 8.50 | 44.10 | 90.30 | 13.20 | 20.70 | 14.70 | 9.50 | 0.1143 |
| 2B | Brice Turang | - | 1.0512 | 0.6822 | neutral | 0.3440 | 0.2550 | 0.4280 | 7.70 | 41.60 | 90.30 | 8.80 | 23.10 | 25.10 | 13.20 | -0.4000 |
| 1B | Jake Bauers | - | 1.0987 | 1.3163 | neutral | 0.3710 | 0.2530 | 0.4670 | 14 | 51.90 | 92.10 | 12.10 | 29.80 | 27 | 16.30 | -0.2857 |
| SS | Cooper Pratt | - | 1.0048 | 0.0641 | neutral | 0.3150 | 0.2660 | 0.3620 | 3.20 | 27.40 | 87 | 9.10 | 21.80 | 18 | 9.80 | -0.1429 |
| RF | Sal Frelick | - | 0.9660 | -0.4529 | neutral | 0.2810 | 0.2410 | 0.3240 | 2.30 | 26.80 | 85.70 | 9.80 | 10.10 | 9.90 | 8.10 | 0.1714 |
| CF | Garrett Mitchell | - | 1.0836 | 1.1148 | neutral | 0.3530 | 0.2680 | 0.4470 | 11.70 | 52.70 | 93.20 | 2.20 | 35.80 | 31.50 | 11.30 | 0.3714 |
| 3B | Joey Ortiz | - | 0.9858 | -0.1888 | neutral | 0.2970 | 0.2430 | 0.3460 | 4 | 37.60 | 89.20 | 6.40 | 19.90 | 19.80 | 8.40 | -0.6857 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | - | 1.1212 | 1.6157 | neutral | 0.3790 | 0.2960 | 0.5000 | 12.70 | 53.90 | 92.90 | 5.30 | 25.90 | 18.50 | 9.10 | 0.6000 |
| CF | Jackson Merrill | - | 1.0922 | 1.2295 | neutral | 0.3470 | 0.2700 | 0.4910 | 12.40 | 48.70 | 91.50 | 14.30 | 27.60 | 24.10 | 6.20 | 0.7714 |
| 3B | Manny Machado | - | 1.0494 | 0.6585 | neutral | 0.3280 | 0.2430 | 0.4200 | 9.70 | 43.60 | 90.10 | 14.50 | 25.30 | 21.30 | 11.20 | 0.5143 |
| 1B | Ty France | - | 1.0355 | 0.4740 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3270 | 0.2480 | 0.4210 | 9.10 | 47.40 | 91.50 | 14.60 | 28.10 | 21.60 | 7.40 | -1.3143 |
| DH | Austin Hays | - | 1.0006 | 0.0077 | neutral | 0.2950 | 0.2780 | 0.3830 | 4.10 | 41.90 | 87.50 | 4.90 | 33.80 | 25.70 | 3.80 | -0.2571 |
| SS | Xander Bogaerts | - | 1.0303 | 0.4040 | neutral | 0.3250 | 0.2480 | 0.3760 | 5.50 | 42.30 | 89.60 | 6.70 | 23.10 | 18 | 12.70 | 0.5429 |
| C | Luis Campusano | - | 1.0206 | 0.2740 | neutral | 0.3270 | 0.2390 | 0.3910 | 8.10 | 37.70 | 87.30 | 16.30 | 26 | 21.40 | 12.10 | -0.7429 |
| 2B | Jake Cronenworth | - | 0.9549 | -0.6015 | neutral | 0.2750 | 0.2130 | 0.3080 | 3.90 | 29.70 | 87.20 | 11.40 | 21.30 | 22.80 | 8.90 | -0.3429 |
| LF | Samad Taylor | - | 0.9823 | -0.2355 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3090 | 0.2560 | 0.3280 | 3.60 | 25.20 | 85.90 | 9 | 25.20 | 25.70 | 10.30 | -1.3429 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0319,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0319,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "665487",
"player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
"offense_factor": 1.1212,
"quality_score": 1.6157,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "665487",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 649.0,
"k_percent": 18.5,
"bb_percent": 9.1,
"woba": 0.358,
"xwoba": 0.379,
"xba": 0.296,
"xslg": 0.5,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 53.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 92.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 5.3,
"whiff_percent": 25.9,
"swing_percent": 46.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.7811,
"regression_edge": 0.6,
"xwoba_edge": 2.2857,
"xba_edge": 1.7143,
"xslg_edge": 1.9571,
"barrel_edge": 1.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.3286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.8,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.1833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "701538",
"player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
"offense_factor": 1.0922,
"quality_score": 1.2295,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "701538",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 619.0,
"k_percent": 24.1,
"bb_percent": 6.2,
"woba": 0.32,
"xwoba": 0.347,
"xba": 0.27,
"xslg": 0.491,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 48.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.3,
"whiff_percent": 27.6,
"swing_percent": 56.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.3041,
"regression_edge": 0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.3714,
"xba_edge": 0.9714,
"xslg_edge": 1.8286,
"barrel_edge": 1.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.5857,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.0833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "592518",
"player_name": "Manny Machado",
"offense_factor": 1.0494,
"quality_score": 0.6585,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "592518",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 624.0,
"k_percent": 21.3,
"bb_percent": 11.2,
"woba": 0.31,
"xwoba": 0.328,
"xba": 0.243,
"xslg": 0.42,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.5,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.682,
"regression_edge": 0.5143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8286,
"xba_edge": 0.2,
"xslg_edge": 0.8143,
"barrel_edge": 0.6889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.68,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.1,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "664034",
"player_name": "Ty France",
"offense_factor": 1.0355,
"quality_score": 0.474,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "664034",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 454.0,
"k_percent": 21.6,
"bb_percent": 7.4,
"woba": 0.373,
"xwoba": 0.327,
"xba": 0.248,
"xslg": 0.421,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 47.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.6,
"whiff_percent": 28.1,
"swing_percent": 54.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.7651,
"regression_edge": -1.3143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8,
"xba_edge": 0.3429,
"xslg_edge": 0.8286,
"barrel_edge": 0.5556,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.4,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.8667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "669720",
"player_name": "Austin Hays",
"offense_factor": 1.0006,
"quality_score": 0.0077,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669720",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 86.0,
"k_percent": 25.7,
"bb_percent": 3.8,
"woba": 0.304,
"xwoba": 0.295,
"xba": 0.278,
"xslg": 0.383,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 4.9,
"whiff_percent": 33.8,
"swing_percent": 53.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0617,
"regression_edge": -0.2571,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
"xba_edge": 1.2,
"xslg_edge": 0.2857,
"barrel_edge": -0.5556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.36,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.3,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "593428",
"player_name": "Xander Bogaerts",
"offense_factor": 1.0303,
"quality_score": 0.404,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "593428",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 568.0,
"k_percent": 18.0,
"bb_percent": 12.7,
"woba": 0.306,
"xwoba": 0.325,
"xba": 0.248,
"xslg": 0.376,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 6.7,
"whiff_percent": 23.1,
"swing_percent": 41.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3813,
"regression_edge": 0.5429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.7429,
"xba_edge": 0.3429,
"xslg_edge": 0.1857,
"barrel_edge": -0.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.9,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "669134",
"player_name": "Luis Campusano",
"offense_factor": 1.0206,
"quality_score": 0.274,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669134",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 226.0,
"k_percent": 21.4,
"bb_percent": 12.1,
"woba": 0.353,
"xwoba": 0.327,
"xba": 0.239,
"xslg": 0.391,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.3,
"whiff_percent": 26.0,
"swing_percent": 46.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.4396,
"regression_edge": -0.7429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8,
"xba_edge": 0.0857,
"xslg_edge": 0.4,
"barrel_edge": 0.3333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.44,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.7333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "630105",
"player_name": "Jake Cronenworth",
"offense_factor": 0.9549,
"quality_score": -0.6015,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "630105",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 383.0,
"k_percent": 22.8,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.287,
"xwoba": 0.275,
"xba": 0.213,
"xslg": 0.308,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 29.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.4,
"whiff_percent": 21.3,
"swing_percent": 45.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.6436,
"regression_edge": -0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": -0.6857,
"xba_edge": -0.6571,
"xslg_edge": -0.7857,
"barrel_edge": -0.6,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.1286,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.4333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "669392",
"player_name": "Samad Taylor",
"offense_factor": 0.9823,
"quality_score": -0.2355,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669392",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 143.0,
"k_percent": 25.7,
"bb_percent": 10.3,
"woba": 0.356,
"xwoba": 0.309,
"xba": 0.256,
"xslg": 0.328,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 25.2,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 9.0,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 44.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.2026,
"regression_edge": -1.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
"xba_edge": 0.5714,
"xslg_edge": -0.5,
"barrel_edge": -0.6667,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.7714,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.0,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.037,
"raw_average_factor": 1.037,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "694192",
"player_name": "Jackson Chourio",
"offense_factor": 1.0702,
"quality_score": 0.9355,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "694192",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 523.0,
"k_percent": 23.4,
"bb_percent": 8.2,
"woba": 0.361,
"xwoba": 0.344,
"xba": 0.265,
"xslg": 0.475,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 47.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.8,
"whiff_percent": 25.1,
"swing_percent": 47.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.1669,
"regression_edge": -0.4857,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2857,
"xba_edge": 0.8286,
"xslg_edge": 1.6,
"barrel_edge": 1.2667,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.3429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.28,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "592885",
"player_name": "Christian Yelich",
"offense_factor": 1.0168,
"quality_score": 0.2241,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "592885",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 456.0,
"k_percent": 27.0,
"bb_percent": 9.8,
"woba": 0.305,
"xwoba": 0.308,
"xba": 0.23,
"xslg": 0.385,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 4.0,
"whiff_percent": 29.6,
"swing_percent": 45.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.2466,
"regression_edge": 0.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2571,
"xba_edge": -0.1714,
"xslg_edge": 0.3143,
"barrel_edge": 0.6667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.6333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "661388",
"player_name": "William Contreras",
"offense_factor": 1.0555,
"quality_score": 0.7396,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "661388",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 590.0,
"k_percent": 14.7,
"bb_percent": 9.5,
"woba": 0.33,
"xwoba": 0.334,
"xba": 0.261,
"xslg": 0.441,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 44.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.2,
"whiff_percent": 20.7,
"swing_percent": 47.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.8414,
"regression_edge": 0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0,
"xba_edge": 0.7143,
"xslg_edge": 1.1143,
"barrel_edge": 0.4222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.9286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.76,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "668930",
"player_name": "Brice Turang",
"offense_factor": 1.0512,
"quality_score": 0.6822,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "668930",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 619.0,
"k_percent": 25.1,
"bb_percent": 13.2,
"woba": 0.358,
"xwoba": 0.344,
"xba": 0.255,
"xslg": 0.428,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 8.8,
"whiff_percent": 23.1,
"swing_percent": 43.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.8584,
"regression_edge": -0.4,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2857,
"xba_edge": 0.5429,
"xslg_edge": 0.9286,
"barrel_edge": 0.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.5714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.76,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.8667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "641343",
"player_name": "Jake Bauers",
"offense_factor": 1.0987,
"quality_score": 1.3163,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "641343",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 526.0,
"k_percent": 27.0,
"bb_percent": 16.3,
"woba": 0.381,
"xwoba": 0.371,
"xba": 0.253,
"xslg": 0.467,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 14.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 51.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 92.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.1,
"whiff_percent": 29.8,
"swing_percent": 40.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.5771,
"regression_edge": -0.2857,
"xwoba_edge": 2.0571,
"xba_edge": 0.4857,
"xslg_edge": 1.4857,
"barrel_edge": 1.6444,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.0429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.8833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "806198",
"player_name": "Cooper Pratt",
"offense_factor": 1.0048,
"quality_score": 0.0641,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "806198",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 232.0,
"k_percent": 18.0,
"bb_percent": 9.8,
"woba": 0.32,
"xwoba": 0.315,
"xba": 0.266,
"xslg": 0.362,
"sweet_spot_percent": 41.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 27.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.0,
"launch_angle_avg": 9.1,
"whiff_percent": 21.8,
"swing_percent": 46.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0977,
"regression_edge": -0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
"xba_edge": 0.8571,
"xslg_edge": -0.0143,
"barrel_edge": -0.7556,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.4571,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.56,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.3,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "686217",
"player_name": "Sal Frelick",
"offense_factor": 0.966,
"quality_score": -0.4529,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "686217",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 356.0,
"k_percent": 9.9,
"bb_percent": 8.1,
"woba": 0.275,
"xwoba": 0.281,
"xba": 0.241,
"xslg": 0.324,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 26.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.7,
"launch_angle_avg": 9.8,
"whiff_percent": 10.1,
"swing_percent": 42.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.5545,
"regression_edge": 0.1714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
"xba_edge": 0.1429,
"xslg_edge": -0.5571,
"barrel_edge": -0.9556,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.5429,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.9833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "669003",
"player_name": "Garrett Mitchell",
"offense_factor": 1.0836,
"quality_score": 1.1148,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669003",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 480.0,
"k_percent": 31.5,
"bb_percent": 11.3,
"woba": 0.34,
"xwoba": 0.353,
"xba": 0.268,
"xslg": 0.447,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 11.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 52.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 93.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 2.2,
"whiff_percent": 35.8,
"swing_percent": 43.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.2358,
"regression_edge": 0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.5429,
"xba_edge": 0.9143,
"xslg_edge": 1.2,
"barrel_edge": 1.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.1571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.92,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.3,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "687401",
"player_name": "Joey Ortiz",
"offense_factor": 0.9858,
"quality_score": -0.1888,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "687401",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 378.0,
"k_percent": 19.8,
"bb_percent": 8.4,
"woba": 0.321,
"xwoba": 0.297,
"xba": 0.243,
"xslg": 0.346,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 6.4,
"whiff_percent": 19.9,
"swing_percent": 44.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.1079,
"regression_edge": -0.6857,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0571,
"xba_edge": 0.2,
"xslg_edge": -0.2429,
"barrel_edge": -0.5778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.32,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.6833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away MIL | Robert Gasser | True | - | -0.0263 | 1 | 1.0022 | 0.9857 | 0.9640 | 0.9891 | neutral | 0.3170 | 0.3090 | 22.30 | 7.40 | 22.50 | 7.60 | 34 |
| Home SD | Walker Buehler | True | - | -0.1628 | 1 | 1.0138 | 0.9560 | 0.9920 | 1.0302 | neutral | 0.3170 | 0.3290 | 20.10 | 8.80 | 19.50 | 8.40 | 38.70 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away MIL | Robert Gasser | True | None | 82 | 88.38 | 2279 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0829 |
| Home SD | Walker Buehler | True | None | 69 | 89.84 | 2199 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0012 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 1.0060 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 1.0040 |
| home_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 1.0138 |
| away_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 1.0022 |
| home_pitcher_workload_share | 0.5185 |
| away_pitcher_workload_share | 0.5926 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | -0.0688 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621111",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 583.0,
"k_percent": 20.1,
"bb_percent": 8.8,
"woba": 0.329,
"xwoba": 0.317,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
"avg_best_speed": 78.722,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.112,
"whiff_percent": 19.5,
"swing_percent": 45.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.169,
"command_and_miss": -0.3936,
"regression_edge": 0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"barrel_edge": -0.2667,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.1143,
"whiff_edge": -0.8143,
"bb_edge": 0.1,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0012
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621111",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 69,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 69,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.84218390169383,
"release_spin_rate": 2199.080983688629,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 69,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.84218390169383,
"release_spin_rate": 2199.080983688629,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.8422,
"release_spin_rate": 2199.081,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0012,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.0088,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.1628,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0138,
"strikeout_factor": 0.956,
"walk_factor": 0.992,
"homer_factor": 1.0302,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "621111",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "688107",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 414.0,
"k_percent": 22.3,
"bb_percent": 7.4,
"woba": 0.309,
"xwoba": 0.317,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
"avg_best_speed": 74.5916,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.1705,
"whiff_percent": 22.5,
"swing_percent": 49.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0205,
"command_and_miss": -0.0321,
"regression_edge": -0.2286,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"barrel_edge": -0.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.5571,
"whiff_edge": -0.3857,
"bb_edge": 0.45,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0829
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "688107",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 82,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.38349307541424,
"release_spin_rate": 2279.059113316552,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.38349307541424,
"release_spin_rate": 2279.059113316552,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.3835,
"release_spin_rate": 2279.0591,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0829,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.5923,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.0263,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0022,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9857,
"walk_factor": 0.964,
"homer_factor": 0.9891,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "688107",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 1.006,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 1.004,
"home_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 1.0138,
"away_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 1.0022,
"home_pitcher_workload_share": 0.5185,
"away_pitcher_workload_share": 0.5926,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": -0.0688
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 4.0,
"home_runs": 4.0
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 4.0241,
"home_runs": 4.0161,
"home_win_probability": 0.4981
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away MIL | 8-2 | 0.800 | 4.40 | 3 | 14 | 5W | average | strong |
| Home SD | 8-2 | 0.800 | 6.30 | 4.50 | 18 | 2W | hot | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away MIL | 103-59 | 0.636 | 214 | 1.321 | True |
| Home SD | 91-71 | 0.562 | 41 | 0.253 | True |
| Signal | - | - | -1.068 | -0.723 | applied=True |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | MIL @ SD | 3 - 4 | SD | 1 | close |
| 2026-08-11 | MIL @ SD | 2 - 11 | SD | 9 | blowout |
| 2026-08-10 | MIL @ SD | 2 - 3 | SD | 1 | close |
| 2026-05-14 | SD @ MIL | 1 - 7 | MIL | 6 | blowout |
| 2026-05-13 | SD @ MIL | 3 - 1 | SD | 2 | close |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target MIL | - | - | 6 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target SD | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized MIL | 38 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Player finalized SD | 37 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Player model fractional MIL | 34.16 | 8.93 | 4.86 | 1.10 | 4.93 | 3.88 | 7.63 |
| Player model fractional SD | 32.59 | 7.57 | 4.10 | 0.99 | 3.85 | 2.88 | 7.64 |
| Simulation box MIL | 38 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Simulation box SD | 37 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away MIL | Starter | Robert Gasser | 3.20 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2.95 | 1.11 | True |
| Away MIL | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Antonio Senzatela | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.30 | 1.36 | True |
| Away MIL | Setup Man | Aaron Ashby | 1.10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2.02 | 0.84 | True |
| Away MIL | Closer | Trevor Megill | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2.74 | 0.91 | True |
| Home SD | Starter | Walker Buehler | 3.20 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4.20 | 1.27 | True |
| Home SD | Long Reliever | Bradgley Rodriguez | 1.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.14 | 1.07 | True |
| Home SD | Setup Man | Jason Adam | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.51 | 1.22 | True |
| Home SD | Closer | Adrian Morejon | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2.95 | 1.14 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away | MIL | pitcher | Starter | Robert Gasser | deboosted | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | predicted_ER | -3.0000 | deboost | better |
| away | MIL | pitcher | Closer | Trevor Megill | worse | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | predicted_H | 3.0000 | boost | worse |
| home | SD | pitcher | Starter | Walker Buehler | worse | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | predicted_BB | 3.0000 | boost | worse |
| home | SD | pitcher | Closer | Adrian Morejon | worse | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | predicted_H | 3.0000 | boost | worse |
| home | SD | batter | CF | Jackson Merrill | worse | 9 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | predicted_RBI | 2.4600 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | DH | Austin Hays | boosted | 10 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | predicted_AB | 2.3250 | boost | better |
| away | MIL | pitcher | Setup Man | Aaron Ashby | worse | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | predicted_SO | 2.0000 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | predicted_AB | -1.9600 | deboost | worse |
| away | MIL | batter | 2B | Brice Turang | better | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 3 | predicted_H | 1.9500 | boost | better |
| away | MIL | batter | C | William Contreras | worse | 12 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 9 | predicted_AB | -1.9400 | deboost | worse |
| away | MIL | batter | SS | Cooper Pratt | worse | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | predicted_AB | 1.7600 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | LF | Samad Taylor | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 7 | predicted_R | 1.4710 | boost | better |
| away | MIL | batter | DH | Christian Yelich | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | predicted_RBI | 1.4500 | boost | better |
| away | MIL | batter | LF | Jackson Chourio | worse | 12 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 10 | predicted_H | -1.3400 | deboost | worse |
| away | MIL | batter | 3B | Joey Ortiz | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 7 | predicted_H | 1.1690 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | 2B | Jake Cronenworth | worse | 12 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 11 | predicted_SO | 1.1150 | boost | worse |
| away | MIL | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Antonio Senzatela | boosted | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_ER | 1.0000 | boost | worse |
| home | SD | batter | 3B | Manny Machado | worse | 12 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 9 | predicted_SF | 1.0000 | boost | higher |
| home | SD | pitcher | Long Reliever | Bradgley Rodriguez | worse | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | predicted_H | -1.0000 | deboost | better |
| home | SD | pitcher | Setup Man | Jason Adam | better | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | predicted_BB | -1.0000 | deboost | better |
| home | SD | batter | 1B | Ty France | worse | 12 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 9 | predicted_AB | 0.9900 | boost | better |
| away | MIL | batter | CF | Garrett Mitchell | worse | 9 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 7 | predicted_H | -0.9100 | deboost | worse |
| home | SD | batter | SS | Xander Bogaerts | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_H | -0.8700 | deboost | worse |
| away | MIL | batter | 1B | Jake Bauers | better | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 3 | predicted_2B | 0.8580 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | C | Luis Campusano | deboosted | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | predicted_2B | 0.8360 | boost | better |
| away | MIL | batter | RF | Sal Frelick | worse | 10 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 7 | predicted_AB | 0.8300 | boost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Robert Gasser |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0263 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0829 |
| Avg Velo | 88.3835 |
| Avg Spin | 2279.0591 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 3.2000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 3 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 4 |
| Season ERA | 3.8689 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1890 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.2000 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.4000 |
| Last Start IP | 6 |
{
"team": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358,
"runs_scored": 832.0,
"runs_allowed": 618.0,
"run_differential": 214.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
"offense_index": 1.1449,
"defense_index": 1.1759,
"current_streak": "W5",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
"run_differential": 14.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3824
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9936,
"defense_index": 1.0671,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1885
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.1939,
"offense_edge": 0.1449,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0064,
"defense_strength": 0.1759,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0671,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0133,
"run_prevention": 0.9717,
"strikeout": 1.0063
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "688107",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "688107",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 414.0,
"k_percent": 22.3,
"bb_percent": 7.4,
"woba": 0.309,
"xwoba": 0.317,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
"avg_best_speed": 74.5916,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.1705,
"whiff_percent": 22.5,
"swing_percent": 49.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0205,
"command_and_miss": -0.0321,
"regression_edge": -0.2286,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"barrel_edge": -0.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.5571,
"whiff_edge": -0.3857,
"bb_edge": 0.45,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0829
},
"quality_score": -0.0263,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0022,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9857,
"walk_factor": 0.964,
"homer_factor": 0.9891,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "688107",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0022,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.0022,
"adjusted": 3
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.964,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9891,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 0.9857,
"adjusted": 5
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 52.0,
"ER": 17,
"H": 42,
"BB": 21,
"SO": 51,
"HR": 4,
"ERA": 2.9423076923076925,
"WHIP": 1.2115384615384617,
"K9": 8.826923076923078,
"HR9": 0.6923076923076924,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 3,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 1,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "688107",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 82,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.38349307541424,
"release_spin_rate": 2279.059113316552,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.38349307541424,
"release_spin_rate": 2279.059113316552,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.3835,
"release_spin_rate": 2279.0591,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0829,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.5923,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 21.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8077,
"prior_weight": 0.1923
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "688107",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 21,
"reference_playing_time": 5.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 27.0,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 13.0,
"BB": 10.0,
"SO": 25.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 105.0,
"Pitches": 442.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.2,
"H": 2.6,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 21.0,
"Pitches": 88.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.6667,
"WHIP": 0.8519,
"ER_per_IP": 0.18519,
"H_per_IP": 0.48148,
"BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
"SO_per_IP": 0.92593,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07407
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 52.0,
"ER": 17.0,
"R": 18.0,
"H": 42.0,
"BB": 21.0,
"SO": 51.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 221.0,
"Pitches": 873.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 1.7,
"R": 1.8,
"H": 4.2,
"BB": 2.1,
"SO": 5.1,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 22.1,
"Pitches": 87.3
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.9423,
"WHIP": 1.2115,
"ER_per_IP": 0.32692,
"H_per_IP": 0.80769,
"BB_per_IP": 0.40385,
"SO_per_IP": 0.98077,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07692
}
},
"season": {
"games": 21,
"totals": {
"IP": 109.1,
"ER": 47.0,
"R": 49.0,
"H": 95.0,
"BB": 35.0,
"SO": 103.0,
"HR": 15.0,
"BF": 463.0,
"Pitches": 1817.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 2.2381,
"R": 2.3333,
"H": 4.5238,
"BB": 1.6667,
"SO": 4.9048,
"HR": 0.7143,
"BF": 22.0476,
"Pitches": 86.5238
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.8689,
"WHIP": 1.189,
"ER_per_IP": 0.42988,
"H_per_IP": 0.8689,
"BB_per_IP": 0.32012,
"SO_per_IP": 0.94207,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1372
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 5.1,
"predicted_ER": 1.749,
"predicted_H": 3.91,
"predicted_BB": 1.993,
"predicted_SO": 5.043,
"predicted_HR": 0.53,
"predicted_ERA": 2.9518,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1068
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4312,
"form_weight": 0.5688,
"form_reliability": 0.8077,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 21.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8077,
"prior_weight": 0.1923
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.1,
"form": 5.1,
"final": 5.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 1.749,
"final": 3.151,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 3.91,
"final": 3.9488,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.993,
"final": 1.5648,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 5.043,
"final": 5.0245,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.53,
"final": 0.3014,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.9518,
"final": 2.9518,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1068,
"final": 1.1068,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Antonio Senzatela |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0156 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.9600 |
| Season WHIP | 1.3733 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.2050 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358,
"runs_scored": 832.0,
"runs_allowed": 618.0,
"run_differential": 214.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
"offense_index": 1.1449,
"defense_index": 1.1759,
"current_streak": "W5",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
"run_differential": 14.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3824
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9936,
"defense_index": 1.0671,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1885
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.1939,
"offense_edge": 0.1449,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0064,
"defense_strength": 0.1759,
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"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
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"run_prevention": 0.9717,
"strikeout": 1.0063
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "622608",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "622608",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 19.3,
"bb_percent": 8.4,
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"league_medians": {
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"components": {
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"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"quality_score": -0.0156,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0013,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9743,
"walk_factor": 0.984,
"homer_factor": 0.9966,
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"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "622608",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 1.0013,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 1.0013,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 0.984,
"adjusted": 0
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"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.9966,
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},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 0.9743,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
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"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"H": 9,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 6,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 2.16,
"WHIP": 1.3200000000000003,
"K9": 6.480000000000001,
"HR9": 1.08,
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"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
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"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-06T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "622608",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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},
"effective_weights": {
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},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
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"player_id": "622608",
"report_date": "20261007",
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"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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},
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},
"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 0.92308,
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"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"HR_per_IP": 0.12
}
},
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"totals": {
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"H": 76.0,
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},
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"R": 0.6441,
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"rates": {
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}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_H": 0.956,
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}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.299,
"final": 2.299,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3612,
"final": 1.3612,
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Aaron Ashby |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.7133 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.1497 |
| Avg Velo | 92.5376 |
| Avg Spin | 2237.9882 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 3.0326 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2935 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.1800 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.5330 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358,
"runs_scored": 832.0,
"runs_allowed": 618.0,
"run_differential": 214.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
"offense_index": 1.1449,
"defense_index": 1.1759,
"current_streak": "W5",
"recent": {
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"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
"run_differential": 14.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3824
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9936,
"defense_index": 1.0671,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1885
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.1449,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0064,
"defense_strength": 0.1759,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0671,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0133,
"run_prevention": 0.9717,
"strikeout": 1.0063
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "676879",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "676879",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 30.3,
"bb_percent": 10.7,
"woba": 0.287,
"xwoba": 0.268,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.9,
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"avg_best_speed": 76.2048,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.4472,
"whiff_percent": 32.1,
"swing_percent": 40.5
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 0.7971,
"regression_edge": 0.5429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2571,
"barrel_edge": 0.5111,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.3286,
"whiff_edge": 0.9857,
"bb_edge": -0.375,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1497
},
"quality_score": 0.7133,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9394,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0863,
"walk_factor": 1.03,
"homer_factor": 0.9345,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.019,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "676879",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9394,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9394,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.03,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9345,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.0863,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 3,
"H": 9,
"BB": 3,
"SO": 9,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 2.0769230769230766,
"WHIP": 0.9230769230769229,
"K9": 6.23076923076923,
"HR9": 0.6923076923076922,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-04T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "676879",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 26,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 26,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.53759546608512,
"release_spin_rate": 2237.9882290125556,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 26,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.53759546608512,
"release_spin_rate": 2237.9882290125556,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 92.5376,
"release_spin_rate": 2237.9882,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1497,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.0694,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
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"sample_size": 18.997,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7916,
"prior_weight": 0.2084
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "676879",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 77,
"reference_playing_time": 1.333,
"windows": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 25.0,
"Pitches": 107.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 5.0,
"Pitches": 21.4
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.2609,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.26087,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 0.91304,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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"H": 9.0,
"BB": 3.0,
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"Pitches": 205.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.9,
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"SO": 0.9,
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"BF": 5.0,
"Pitches": 20.5
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.9231,
"ER_per_IP": 0.23077,
"H_per_IP": 0.69231,
"BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
"SO_per_IP": 0.69231,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07692
}
},
"season": {
"games": 77,
"totals": {
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"ER": 31.0,
"R": 36.0,
"H": 78.0,
"BB": 41.0,
"SO": 118.0,
"HR": 8.0,
"BF": 392.0,
"Pitches": 1617.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.4026,
"R": 0.4675,
"H": 1.013,
"BB": 0.5325,
"SO": 1.5325,
"HR": 0.1039,
"BF": 5.0909,
"Pitches": 21.0
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.2935,
"ER_per_IP": 0.33696,
"H_per_IP": 0.84783,
"BB_per_IP": 0.44565,
"SO_per_IP": 1.28261,
"HR_per_IP": 0.08696
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.326,
"predicted_H": 0.907,
"predicted_BB": 0.31,
"predicted_SO": 1.328,
"predicted_HR": 0.096,
"predicted_ERA": 2.0193,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.8381
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.438,
"form_weight": 0.562,
"form_reliability": 0.7916,
"adaptive_parameters": {
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},
"form_shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7916,
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 1.1,
"final": 1.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"form": 0.907,
"final": 0.9477,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.31,
"final": 0.1742,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.328,
"final": 0.7463,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.096,
"final": 0.0539,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.0193,
"final": 2.0193,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.8381,
"final": 0.8381,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Trevor Megill |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.5987 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 4 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 3 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 1.9688 |
| Season WHIP | 0.8438 |
| Role Avg IP | 1 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.0670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358,
"runs_scored": 832.0,
"runs_allowed": 618.0,
"run_differential": 214.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
"offense_index": 1.1449,
"defense_index": 1.1759,
"current_streak": "W5",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
"run_differential": 14.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3824
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9936,
"defense_index": 1.0671,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1885
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.1939,
"offense_edge": 0.1449,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0064,
"defense_strength": 0.1759,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0671,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0133,
"run_prevention": 0.9717,
"strikeout": 1.0063
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "656730",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656730",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 216.0,
"k_percent": 28.5,
"bb_percent": 6.2,
"woba": 0.208,
"xwoba": 0.252,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.0,
"avg_best_speed": 81.2085,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.3067,
"whiff_percent": 30.5,
"swing_percent": 54.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.0782,
"command_and_miss": 0.8264,
"regression_edge": -1.2571,
"xwoba_edge": 1.7143,
"barrel_edge": 0.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5857,
"whiff_edge": 0.7571,
"bb_edge": 0.75,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"quality_score": 0.5987,
"sample_weight": 0.864,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9491,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0578,
"walk_factor": 0.9482,
"homer_factor": 0.9635,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.044,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "656730",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.956,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.956,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9552,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9685,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0499,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 5,
"H": 10,
"BB": 1,
"SO": 9,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 4.655172413793104,
"WHIP": 1.1379310344827587,
"K9": 8.379310344827587,
"HR9": 0.9310344827586208,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-04T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "656730",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.215,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7255,
"prior_weight": 0.2745
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "656730",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 64,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 18.0,
"Pitches": 57.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.6,
"Pitches": 11.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.375,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.375,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 0.9375,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 10.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 40.0,
"Pitches": 135.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.5,
"R": 0.5,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.1,
"SO": 0.9,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 4.0,
"Pitches": 13.5
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.6552,
"WHIP": 1.1379,
"ER_per_IP": 0.51724,
"H_per_IP": 1.03448,
"BB_per_IP": 0.10345,
"SO_per_IP": 0.93103,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10345
}
},
"season": {
"games": 64,
"totals": {
"IP": 64.0,
"ER": 14.0,
"R": 16.0,
"H": 39.0,
"BB": 15.0,
"SO": 71.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 245.0,
"Pitches": 891.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2188,
"R": 0.25,
"H": 0.6094,
"BB": 0.2344,
"SO": 1.1094,
"HR": 0.0156,
"BF": 3.8281,
"Pitches": 13.9219
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.9688,
"WHIP": 0.8438,
"ER_per_IP": 0.21875,
"H_per_IP": 0.60938,
"BB_per_IP": 0.23438,
"SO_per_IP": 1.10938,
"HR_per_IP": 0.01562
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.304,
"predicted_H": 0.744,
"predicted_BB": 0.165,
"predicted_SO": 0.96,
"predicted_HR": 0.069,
"predicted_ERA": 2.7372,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.9087
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.466,
"form_weight": 0.534,
"form_reliability": 0.7255,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.215,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7255,
"prior_weight": 0.2745
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.304,
"final": 0.1623,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.744,
"final": 0.3973,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.165,
"final": 0.0881,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 0.96,
"final": 1.9106,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.069,
"final": 0.0368,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.7372,
"final": 2.7372,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.9087,
"final": 0.9087,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.211 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.252 | 0.000 | -0.252 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.320 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.272 | 4.000 | 0.728 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.299 | 0.000 | -0.299 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.367 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.379 | 0.000 | -0.379 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.040 | 0.000 | -0.040 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.340 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 1.279 | 0.000 | -1.279 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.200 | 0.000 | -0.200 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.357 | 0.000 | -0.357 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.758 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.820 | 0.000 | -0.820 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.623 | 1.000 | -0.623 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.480 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.499 | 0.000 | -0.499 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.055 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.096 | 1.000 | -1.096 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 11 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AVG: 0.2510 -> 0.2660 (boost 0.0150, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.3400 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.3400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | predicted_AVG: 0.2510 -> 0.2770 (boost 0.0260, better) | predicted_AB: 5.3200 -> 4.7053 (deboost -0.6147, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4870 -> 0.4594 (deboost -0.0276, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.9287 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0713, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.7053 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.7053, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.043 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.7866 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2134, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3901 (boost 0.3901, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5595 (deboost -0.4405, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | predicted_HR: 0.1751 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8249, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3901 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3901, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4350 -> 0.4240 (deboost -0.0110, worse) | KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4240 -> 0.4380 (boost 0.0140, better) | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "694192",
"player_name": "Jackson Chourio",
"position": "LF",
"team": "MIL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.211,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.32,
"predicted_AVG": 0.251,
"predicted_BB": 0.367,
"predicted_H": 1.34,
"predicted_HR": 0.24,
"predicted_OBP": 0.337,
"predicted_R": 0.758,
"predicted_RBI": 1.09,
"predicted_SLG": 0.48,
"predicted_SO": 1.055
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1727,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.7053,
"predicted_AVG": 0.277,
"predicted_BB": 0.34,
"predicted_H": 1.2851,
"predicted_HBP": 0.075,
"predicted_HR": 0.2226,
"predicted_OBP": 0.349,
"predicted_R": 0.7632,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0037,
"predicted_SLG": 0.487,
"predicted_SO": 0.9396
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.32,
"after": 4.7053,
"delta": -0.6147,
"percent_delta": -0.1155,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.251,
"after": 0.277,
"delta": 0.026,
"percent_delta": 0.1036,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.34,
"after": 1.2851,
"delta": -0.0549,
"percent_delta": -0.041,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.337,
"after": 0.349,
"delta": 0.012,
"percent_delta": 0.0356,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.09,
"after": 1.0037,
"delta": -0.0863,
"percent_delta": -0.0792,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 0.487,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0146,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.055,
"after": 0.9396,
"delta": -0.1154,
"percent_delta": -0.1094,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.251,
"after": 0.277,
"delta": 0.026,
"percent_delta": 0.1036,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.32,
"after": 4.7053,
"delta": -0.6147,
"percent_delta": -0.1155,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 128
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1727,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.7053,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2777,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 11,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.251,
"after": 0.266,
"delta": 0.015,
"percent_delta": 0.0598,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.34,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.34,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.211 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.320 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.367 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.340 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.758 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 1.090 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.480 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.055 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.173 | -0.038 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.705 | -0.615 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | 0.026 |
| predicted_BB | 0.340 | -0.027 |
| predicted_H | 1.285 | -0.055 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.075 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.223 | -0.017 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.349 | 0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.763 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.004 | -0.086 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.487 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.940 | -0.115 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.173 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.705 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.278 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.344 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 1.307 | 0.022 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.075 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.227 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | -0.022 |
| predicted_R | 0.787 | 0.023 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.034 | 0.031 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.459 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SO | 0.929 | -0.011 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.043
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.163 | 0.163 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.390 | 0.390 |
| H | 1.071 | 0.071 |
| HR | 0.175 | 0.175 |
| RBI | 0.559 | -0.441 |
| SO | 1.017 | 0.017 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.163 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.262 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.390 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.071 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.825 |
| OBP | 0.332 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.441 |
| SLG | 0.435 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.017 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.173 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.705 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.262 | -0.016 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.344 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.307 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.773 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.332 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.213 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | -0.034 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.435 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.071 |
KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.256 | -0.006 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.325 | -0.007 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.424 | -0.011 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.3500 | 0.3636 | 0.5000 | 0.3500 | 0.0500 | 0.4000 | 0.0000 | 0.0500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 0.3438 | 0.4211 | 0.5312 | 0.3438 | 0.0625 | 0.3125 | 0.1250 | 0.1875 |
| season | 0.60 | 128 | - | 528.000 | 154.000 | 27.000 | 0.000 | 26.000 | 80.000 | 97.000 | 47.000 | 135.000 | 0.2917 | 0.3511 | 0.4905 | 0.2917 | 0.0492 | 0.1515 | 0.0890 | 0.2557 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1230 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9090 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3106 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3050 |
| predicted_H | 1.2140 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0750 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3645 |
| predicted_R | 0.7700 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8920 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4960 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7900 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2110 | 0.1230 | 0.1727 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.3200 | 3.9090 | 4.7053 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2510 | 0.3106 | 0.2770 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3670 | 0.3050 | 0.3400 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.3400 | 1.2140 | 1.2851 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0750 | 0.0750 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2400 | 0.2000 | 0.2226 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3370 | 0.3645 | 0.3490 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.7580 | 0.7700 | 0.7632 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 1.0900 | 0.8920 | 1.0037 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4800 | 0.4960 | 0.4870 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0550 | 0.7900 | 0.9396 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 544 |
| Season rows before report date | 544 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 128 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 1 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 694192 |
| playerID | 694192 |
| playerName | Jackson Chourio |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.361 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.344 |
| sl_xba | 0.265 |
| sl_xslg | 0.475 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.200 | 0.000 | -0.200 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.380 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.973 | 4.000 | 1.027 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.239 | 0.500 | -0.039 | -0.300 |
| predicted_BB | 0.436 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.459 | 1.000 | -0.459 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.010 | 0.000 | -0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.070 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.948 | 2.000 | 0.052 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.104 | 0.000 | 0.896 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.332 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.322 | 0.600 | -0.122 | -0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.590 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_R | 0.637 | 0.000 | 1.363 | 2.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.550 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.526 | 1.000 | 1.474 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.371 | 0.800 | 0.800 | Hitting_SLG | 0.378 | 0.500 | 0.422 | 0.300 |
| predicted_SO | 1.128 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.182 | 0.000 | -1.182 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.5500 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.1280 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1280, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 4.3800 -> 4.0312 (deboost -0.3488, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3718 -> 0.3810 (boost 0.0092, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3323 -> 0.3242 (deboost -0.0081, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | - | predicted_RBI: 0.5257 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5257, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.024 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.250) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5808 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4192, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4713 (boost 0.4713, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8778 (deboost -0.1222, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | predicted_BB: 0.4713 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5287, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4402 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4402, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3730 -> 0.3640 (deboost -0.0090, worse) | KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3150 -> 0.3090 (deboost -0.0060, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "592885",
"player_name": "Christian Yelich",
"position": "DH",
"team": "MIL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.188,
"predicted_3B": 0.017,
"predicted_AB": 4.38,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.436,
"predicted_H": 1.07,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_OBP": 0.332,
"predicted_R": 0.59,
"predicted_RBI": 0.55,
"predicted_SLG": 0.371,
"predicted_SO": 1.128
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1815,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 4.0312,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2464,
"predicted_BB": 0.4351,
"predicted_H": 0.9929,
"predicted_HBP": 0.02,
"predicted_HR": 0.1035,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3323,
"predicted_R": 0.5636,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5101,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3718,
"predicted_SO": 1.0825
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.38,
"after": 4.0312,
"delta": -0.3488,
"percent_delta": -0.0796,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.07,
"after": 0.9929,
"delta": -0.0771,
"percent_delta": -0.0721,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.38,
"after": 4.0312,
"delta": -0.3488,
"percent_delta": -0.0796,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 117
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1815,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 4.0312,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2505,
"predicted_BB": 0.4401,
"predicted_H": 1.0097,
"predicted_HBP": 0.02,
"predicted_HR": 0.1056,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3242,
"predicted_R": 0.5808,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5257,
"predicted_SLG": 0.381,
"predicted_SO": 1.0699
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3323,
"after": 0.3242,
"delta": -0.0081,
"percent_delta": -0.0244,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3718,
"after": 0.381,
"delta": 0.0092,
"percent_delta": 0.0247,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
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},
{
"index": 4,
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"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 5,
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{
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}
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{
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{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
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},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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},
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"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
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},
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],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.01,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.380 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.436 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.070 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.332 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.590 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.550 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.371 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.128 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.181 | -0.007 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.031 | -0.349 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.435 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.993 | -0.077 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.103 | -0.017 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.332 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.564 | -0.026 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.510 | -0.040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.372 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.083 | -0.045 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.181 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.440 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 1.010 | 0.017 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.106 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.581 | 0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.526 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.381 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 1.070 | -0.013 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.024
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.250)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.146 | 0.146 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.471 | 0.471 |
| H | 0.878 | -0.122 |
| HR | 0.122 | 0.122 |
| RBI | 0.440 | 0.440 |
| SO | 1.029 | 0.029 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.146 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.232 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.529 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.122 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.122 |
| OBP | 0.322 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.440 |
| SLG | 0.373 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.029 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.181 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.031 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | -0.018 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.560 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.010 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.106 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.419 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.526 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.373 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.070 |
KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.226 | -0.006 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.315 | -0.007 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.364 | -0.009 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.3125 | 0.3889 | 0.3750 | 0.3125 | 0.0000 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 0.2353 | 0.3333 | 0.3529 | 0.2353 | 0.0294 | 0.1177 | 0.1471 | 0.2941 |
| season | 0.60 | 117 | - | 437.000 | 102.000 | 22.000 | 2.000 | 12.000 | 58.000 | 69.000 | 51.000 | 132.000 | 0.2334 | 0.3165 | 0.3753 | 0.2334 | 0.0275 | 0.1327 | 0.1167 | 0.3021 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1730 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5750 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2495 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4340 |
| predicted_H | 0.8920 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0200 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0820 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3327 |
| predicted_R | 0.5290 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4580 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3728 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0230 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1880 | 0.1730 | 0.1815 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 | 0.0100 | 0.0140 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3800 | 3.5750 | 4.0312 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2495 | 0.2464 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4360 | 0.4340 | 0.4351 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0700 | 0.8920 | 0.9929 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0200 | 0.0200 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 | 0.0820 | 0.1035 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3320 | 0.3327 | 0.3323 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5900 | 0.5290 | 0.5636 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5500 | 0.4580 | 0.5101 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3710 | 0.3728 | 0.3718 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1280 | 1.0230 | 1.0825 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 479 |
| Season rows before report date | 479 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 117 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 2 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 592885 |
| playerID | 592885 |
| playerName | Christian Yelich |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.305 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.308 |
| sl_xba | 0.23 |
| sl_xslg | 0.385 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 4.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.185 | 0.000 | -0.185 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.940 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.984 | 4.000 | -0.984 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.257 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.275 | 0.750 | -0.275 | -0.750 |
| predicted_BB | 0.419 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.439 | 1.000 | 0.561 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.270 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 1.095 | 3.000 | -1.095 | -3.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.310 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.131 | 1.000 | -0.131 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.353 | 0.400 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.346 | 0.800 | 0.054 | -0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.568 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.611 | 2.000 | 0.389 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.840 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.679 | 1.000 | -0.679 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.485 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.424 | 1.500 | -0.424 | -1.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.635 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.641 | 0.000 | 1.359 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.6350 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3650, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.9400 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.9400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AVG: 0.2570 -> 0.2677 (boost 0.0107, better) | predicted_AB: 4.9400 -> 4.4330 (deboost -0.5070, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4855 -> 0.4929 (boost 0.0074, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3550 -> 0.3369 (deboost -0.0181, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.7941 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2059, better) | predicted_SO: 0.6099 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6099, better) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.056 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5715 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4285, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 0.6212 (boost 0.6212, worse) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5529 (deboost -0.4471, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_RBI: 0.5529 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4471, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4204 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4204, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3900 -> 0.3800 (deboost -0.0100, worse) | KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3800 -> 0.3870 (boost 0.0070, better) | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "661388",
"player_name": "William Contreras",
"position": "C",
"team": "MIL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.176,
"predicted_3B": 0.007,
"predicted_AB": 4.94,
"predicted_AVG": 0.257,
"predicted_BB": 0.419,
"predicted_H": 1.27,
"predicted_HR": 0.31,
"predicted_OBP": 0.353,
"predicted_R": 0.568,
"predicted_RBI": 0.84,
"predicted_SLG": 0.485,
"predicted_SO": 0.635
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1454,
"predicted_3B": 0.0057,
"predicted_AB": 4.433,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2677,
"predicted_BB": 0.4387,
"predicted_H": 1.1795,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.2707,
"predicted_OBP": 0.355,
"predicted_R": 0.5545,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7705,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4855,
"predicted_SO": 0.6171
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.94,
"after": 4.433,
"delta": -0.507,
"percent_delta": -0.1026,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.257,
"after": 0.2677,
"delta": 0.0107,
"percent_delta": 0.0416,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.27,
"after": 1.1795,
"delta": -0.0905,
"percent_delta": -0.0713,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.84,
"after": 0.7705,
"delta": -0.0695,
"percent_delta": -0.0827,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.257,
"after": 0.2677,
"delta": 0.0107,
"percent_delta": 0.0416,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.94,
"after": 4.433,
"delta": -0.507,
"percent_delta": -0.1026,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 148
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1454,
"predicted_3B": 0.0057,
"predicted_AB": 4.433,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2706,
"predicted_BB": 0.4438,
"predicted_H": 1.1994,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.2762,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3369,
"predicted_R": 0.5715,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7941,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4929,
"predicted_SO": 0.6099
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.355,
"after": 0.3369,
"delta": -0.0181,
"percent_delta": -0.051,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4855,
"after": 0.4929,
"delta": 0.0074,
"percent_delta": 0.0152,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4855,
"after": 0.4929,
"delta": 0.0074,
"percent_delta": 0.0152,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
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{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
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},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
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},
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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],
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.940 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.257 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.419 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.270 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.353 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.568 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.840 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.485 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.635 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.145 | -0.031 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.433 | -0.507 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.268 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.439 | 0.020 |
| predicted_H | 1.179 | -0.091 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.271 | -0.039 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.355 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.554 | -0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.770 | -0.070 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.485 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.617 | -0.018 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.145 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.433 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.271 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.444 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 1.199 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.276 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 0.572 | 0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.794 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.493 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.610 | -0.007 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.056
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.144 | 0.144 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.420 | 0.420 |
| H | 0.952 | -0.048 |
| HR | 0.125 | 0.125 |
| RBI | 0.553 | -0.447 |
| SO | 0.621 | 0.621 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.144 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.249 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.420 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.048 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.125 |
| OBP | 0.329 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.447 |
| SLG | 0.390 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.379 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.433 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | -0.022 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.444 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.199 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.276 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.329 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.428 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.206 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.390 | -0.103 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.390 |
KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.243 | -0.006 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.322 | -0.007 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.380 | -0.010 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.3158 | 0.4091 | 0.6316 | 0.3158 | 0.1053 | 0.1579 | 0.1579 | 0.1053 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 0.2857 | 0.3659 | 0.5429 | 0.2857 | 0.0857 | 0.2571 | 0.1429 | 0.1714 |
| season | 0.60 | 148 | - | 572.000 | 155.000 | 26.000 | 1.000 | 20.000 | 95.000 | 84.000 | 62.000 | 94.000 | 0.2710 | 0.3416 | 0.4248 | 0.2710 | 0.0350 | 0.1661 | 0.1084 | 0.1643 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1060 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7800 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2814 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4640 |
| predicted_H | 1.0630 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2200 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3575 |
| predicted_R | 0.5370 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6810 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4861 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5940 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1760 | 0.1060 | 0.1454 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 | 0.0040 | 0.0057 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.9400 | 3.7800 | 4.4330 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2570 | 0.2814 | 0.2677 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4190 | 0.4640 | 0.4387 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2700 | 1.0630 | 1.1795 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0170 | 0.0170 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.3100 | 0.2200 | 0.2707 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3530 | 0.3575 | 0.3550 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5680 | 0.5370 | 0.5545 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8400 | 0.6810 | 0.7705 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4850 | 0.4861 | 0.4855 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6350 | 0.5940 | 0.6171 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 610 |
| Season rows before report date | 610 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 148 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 1 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.75 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 3 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 6 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 661388 |
| playerID | 661388 |
| playerName | William Contreras |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.33 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.334 |
| sl_xba | 0.261 |
| sl_xslg | 0.441 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.247 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.260 | 0.000 | 0.740 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.520 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.960 | 4.000 | 0.040 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | 0.750 | 0.750 | Hitting_AVG | 0.277 | 0.250 | 0.473 | 0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.587 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.589 | 1.000 | 0.411 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.037 | 0.000 | -0.037 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.050 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_H | 1.096 | 1.000 | 1.904 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.142 | 0.000 | -0.142 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | 0.800 | 0.800 | Hitting_OBP | 0.370 | 0.400 | 0.430 | 0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.680 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.713 | 0.000 | 0.287 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.710 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.734 | 0.000 | 1.266 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.130 | 0.000 | -0.130 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.397 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.464 | 0.250 | 0.536 | 0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 1.120 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.081 | 1.000 | -0.081 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 8 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.0500 -> 3.0000 (boost 1.9500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.5200 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.5200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3970 -> 0.4126 (boost 0.0156, better) | predicted_AB: 4.5200 -> 4.2251 (deboost -0.2949, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4126 -> 0.4204 (boost 0.0078, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.7074 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2926, better) | predicted_BB: 0.5655 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5655, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.036 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6386 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3614, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.5708 (boost 0.5708, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5341 (deboost -0.4659, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.1683 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8317, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1239 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1239, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4000 -> 0.3900 (deboost -0.0100, worse) | KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3450 -> 0.3390 (deboost -0.0060, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "668930",
"player_name": "Brice Turang",
"position": "2B",
"team": "MIL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.247,
"predicted_3B": 0.02,
"predicted_AB": 4.52,
"predicted_AVG": 0.233,
"predicted_BB": 0.587,
"predicted_H": 1.05,
"predicted_HR": 0.16,
"predicted_OBP": 0.324,
"predicted_R": 0.68,
"predicted_RBI": 0.71,
"predicted_SLG": 0.397,
"predicted_SO": 1.12
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2277,
"predicted_3B": 0.0165,
"predicted_AB": 4.2251,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2388,
"predicted_BB": 0.559,
"predicted_H": 1.0049,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.1613,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3294,
"predicted_R": 0.6196,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6864,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4126,
"predicted_SO": 1.1191
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.52,
"after": 4.2251,
"delta": -0.2949,
"percent_delta": -0.0652,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.2388,
"delta": 0.0058,
"percent_delta": 0.0249,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3294,
"delta": 0.0054,
"percent_delta": 0.0167,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.68,
"after": 0.6196,
"delta": -0.0604,
"percent_delta": -0.0888,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.397,
"after": 0.4126,
"delta": 0.0156,
"percent_delta": 0.0393,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.397,
"after": 0.4126,
"delta": 0.0156,
"percent_delta": 0.0393,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.52,
"after": 4.2251,
"delta": -0.2949,
"percent_delta": -0.0652,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 150
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2277,
"predicted_3B": 0.0165,
"predicted_AB": 4.2251,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2419,
"predicted_BB": 0.5655,
"predicted_H": 1.0219,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.1646,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3314,
"predicted_R": 0.6386,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7074,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4204,
"predicted_SO": 1.1061
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4126,
"after": 0.4204,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0189,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4126,
"after": 0.4204,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0189,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
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"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
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"stats": {
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
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},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
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},
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
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},
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},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
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},
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"total_change": {
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},
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},
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},
"has_material_change": true,
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}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.247 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.520 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.587 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.050 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.680 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.710 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.397 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.120 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.228 | -0.019 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.225 | -0.295 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.559 | -0.028 |
| predicted_H | 1.005 | -0.045 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.161 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.329 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.620 | -0.060 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.686 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.413 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 1.119 | -0.001 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.228 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.225 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.242 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.566 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 1.022 | 0.017 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.165 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.331 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.639 | 0.019 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.707 | 0.021 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.420 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 1.106 | -0.013 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.036
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.168 | 0.168 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.571 | 0.571 |
| H | 0.909 | -0.091 |
| HR | 0.124 | 0.124 |
| RBI | 0.534 | -0.466 |
| SO | 0.955 | -0.045 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.832 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.247 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.429 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.091 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.124 |
| OBP | 0.352 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.466 |
| SLG | 0.400 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.045 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 1.000 | 0.772 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.017 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.225 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.434 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.022 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.165 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.352 | 0.021 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.361 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.293 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.400 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.106 |
KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.240 | -0.007 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.345 | -0.007 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.390 | -0.010 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.1667 | 0.2857 | 0.3333 | 0.1667 | 0.0556 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.2778 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 13.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3023 | 0.4750 | 0.2500 | 0.0500 | 0.1750 | 0.0750 | 0.3250 |
| season | 0.60 | 150 | - | 582.000 | 158.000 | 37.000 | 3.000 | 21.000 | 101.000 | 102.000 | 88.000 | 168.000 | 0.2715 | 0.3670 | 0.4536 | 0.2715 | 0.0361 | 0.1735 | 0.1512 | 0.2887 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8460 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2463 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5230 |
| predicted_H | 0.9470 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1630 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3364 |
| predicted_R | 0.5420 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6560 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4327 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1180 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2470 | 0.2030 | 0.2277 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0200 | 0.0120 | 0.0165 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.5200 | 3.8460 | 4.2251 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2330 | 0.2463 | 0.2388 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5870 | 0.5230 | 0.5590 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0500 | 0.9470 | 1.0049 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.1630 | 0.1613 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3240 | 0.3364 | 0.3294 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6800 | 0.5420 | 0.6196 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7100 | 0.6560 | 0.6864 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3970 | 0.4327 | 0.4126 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1200 | 1.1180 | 1.1191 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 654 |
| Season rows before report date | 654 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 150 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 3 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 668930 |
| playerID | 668930 |
| playerName | Brice Turang |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.358 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.344 |
| sl_xba | 0.255 |
| sl_xslg | 0.428 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 8.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.142 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.142 | 0.000 | 0.858 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.530 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.511 | 4.000 | 0.489 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.269 | 0.000 | -0.019 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.638 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.736 | 1.000 | 0.264 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.035 | 0.000 | -0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.800 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.944 | 0.000 | 0.056 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.202 | 0.000 | -0.202 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | 0.400 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.398 | 0.200 | 0.002 | 0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.645 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.702 | 0.000 | 0.298 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.665 | 0.000 | -0.665 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.491 | 0.000 | 0.009 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 1.135 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.127 | 4.000 | -0.127 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1420 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8580, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.4400 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | predicted_SO: 1.1350 -> 1.2439 (boost 0.1089, worse) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3773 -> 0.3902 (boost 0.0129, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.5226 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.4774, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4481 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4481, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.037 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6135 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3865, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5123 (boost 0.5123, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.6453 (deboost -0.3547, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.5123 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4877, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1741 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1741, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4240 -> 0.4130 (deboost -0.0110, worse) | KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3500 -> 0.3320 (deboost -0.0180, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "641343",
"player_name": "Jake Bauers",
"position": "1B",
"team": "MIL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.142,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 3.53,
"predicted_AVG": 0.227,
"predicted_BB": 0.638,
"predicted_H": 0.8,
"predicted_HR": 0.14,
"predicted_OBP": 0.336,
"predicted_R": 0.645,
"predicted_RBI": 0.44,
"predicted_SLG": 0.382,
"predicted_SO": 1.135
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1359,
"predicted_3B": 0.0118,
"predicted_AB": 3.5226,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2305,
"predicted_BB": 0.5931,
"predicted_H": 0.8113,
"predicted_HBP": 0.078,
"predicted_HR": 0.1274,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3401,
"predicted_R": 0.5953,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4348,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3773,
"predicted_SO": 1.2439
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.135,
"after": 1.2439,
"delta": 0.1089,
"percent_delta": 0.0959,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.135,
"after": 1.2439,
"delta": 0.1089,
"percent_delta": 0.0959,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 141
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1359,
"predicted_3B": 0.0118,
"predicted_AB": 3.5226,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2342,
"predicted_BB": 0.6,
"predicted_H": 0.825,
"predicted_HBP": 0.078,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3457,
"predicted_R": 0.6135,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4481,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3902,
"predicted_SO": 1.2295
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3401,
"after": 0.3457,
"delta": 0.0056,
"percent_delta": 0.0165,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3773,
"after": 0.3902,
"delta": 0.0129,
"percent_delta": 0.0342,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3773,
"after": 0.3902,
"delta": 0.0129,
"percent_delta": 0.0342,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.037",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1359,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1359,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5226,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.4774,
"percent_delta": 0.1355,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4,
"percent_delta": 0.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.825,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.175,
"percent_delta": 0.2121,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.078,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.078,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4481,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4481,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.2295,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.2295,
"percent_delta": -0.1867,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5226,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.4774,
"percent_delta": 0.1355,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4481,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4481,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
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{
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"step": "consistency_constraints",
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"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
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{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
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}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_OBP": 0.332,
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},
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],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.142 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.530 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.638 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.800 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.645 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.135 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | -0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.523 | -0.007 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.231 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.593 | -0.045 |
| predicted_H | 0.811 | 0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.078 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.127 | -0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.340 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.595 | -0.050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.435 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.377 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 1.244 | 0.109 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.523 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.600 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.825 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.078 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.346 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.614 | 0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.448 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.390 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 1.230 | -0.014 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.037
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.132 | 0.132 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.645 | -0.355 |
| H | 0.849 | -0.151 |
| HR | 0.174 | 0.174 |
| RBI | 0.512 | 0.512 |
| SO | 1.016 | 0.016 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.132 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.236 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.355 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.151 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| OBP | 0.357 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.488 |
| SLG | 0.424 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.016 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.477 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.400 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.175 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.130 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.357 | 0.011 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.386 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.552 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | 0.034 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.230 |
KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.230 | -0.006 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.350 | -0.007 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.413 | -0.011 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 0.1667 | 0.2857 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1111 | 0.5000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 19.000 | 0.2162 | 0.3023 | 0.2703 | 0.2162 | 0.0000 | 0.0811 | 0.1081 | 0.5135 |
| season | 0.60 | 141 | - | 479.000 | 126.000 | 20.000 | 2.000 | 25.000 | 84.000 | 91.000 | 90.000 | 160.000 | 0.2630 | 0.3830 | 0.4697 | 0.2631 | 0.0522 | 0.1754 | 0.1879 | 0.3340 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1280 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5130 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2351 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5350 |
| predicted_H | 0.8260 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0780 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1110 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3453 |
| predicted_R | 0.5310 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3711 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3850 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1420 | 0.1280 | 0.1359 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 | 0.0090 | 0.0118 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5300 | 3.5130 | 3.5226 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2270 | 0.2351 | 0.2305 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.6380 | 0.5350 | 0.5931 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8000 | 0.8260 | 0.8113 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0780 | 0.0780 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.1110 | 0.1274 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3360 | 0.3453 | 0.3401 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6450 | 0.5310 | 0.5953 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4400 | 0.4280 | 0.4348 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3820 | 0.3711 | 0.3773 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1350 | 1.3850 | 1.2439 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 550 |
| Season rows before report date | 550 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 141 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 4 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 641343 |
| playerID | 641343 |
| playerName | Jake Bauers |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 16.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.381 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.371 |
| sl_xba | 0.253 |
| sl_xslg | 0.467 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 14.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 51.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.082 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.104 | 0.000 | 0.896 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.056 | 0.000 | -0.056 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.240 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.315 | 4.000 | 1.685 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.280 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.287 | 0.500 | -0.087 | -0.300 |
| predicted_BB | 0.329 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.375 | 0.000 | -0.375 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.024 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.910 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.952 | 2.000 | 0.048 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.048 | 0.000 | -0.048 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.331 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.356 | 0.500 | -0.156 | -0.300 |
| predicted_R | 0.425 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.538 | 1.000 | -0.538 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.330 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.554 | 0.000 | 1.446 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.348 | 0.400 | 0.400 | Hitting_SLG | 0.395 | 0.500 | 0.005 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.658 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.645 | 0.000 | 1.355 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.2400 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.7600, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.4250 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4250, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3322 -> 0.3472 (boost 0.0150, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6794 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3206, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3501 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3501, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.289 HR/AB=0.010 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3990 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3990, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4333 (boost 0.4333, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7004 (deboost -0.2996, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.7004 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2996, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4333 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4333, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3540 -> 0.3450 (deboost -0.0090, worse) | KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3150 -> 0.3070 (deboost -0.0080, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "806198",
"player_name": "Cooper Pratt",
"position": "SS",
"team": "MIL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.082,
"predicted_3B": 0.027,
"predicted_AB": 3.24,
"predicted_AVG": 0.28,
"predicted_BB": 0.329,
"predicted_H": 0.91,
"predicted_HR": 0.03,
"predicted_OBP": 0.331,
"predicted_R": 0.425,
"predicted_RBI": 0.33,
"predicted_SLG": 0.348,
"predicted_SO": 0.658
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0955,
"predicted_3B": 0.0228,
"predicted_AB": 3.277,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2783,
"predicted_BB": 0.316,
"predicted_H": 0.9138,
"predicted_HBP": 0.018,
"predicted_HR": 0.0321,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3322,
"predicted_R": 0.3872,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3397,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3496,
"predicted_SO": 0.6874
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 73
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0955,
"predicted_3B": 0.0228,
"predicted_AB": 3.277,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2836,
"predicted_BB": 0.3197,
"predicted_H": 0.9292,
"predicted_HBP": 0.018,
"predicted_HR": 0.0328,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3472,
"predicted_R": 0.399,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3501,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3566,
"predicted_SO": 0.6794
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2783,
"after": 0.2836,
"delta": 0.0053,
"percent_delta": 0.019,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3322,
"after": 0.3472,
"delta": 0.015,
"percent_delta": 0.0452,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3496,
"after": 0.3566,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.02,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3322,
"after": 0.3472,
"delta": 0.015,
"percent_delta": 0.0452,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.289 HR/AB=0.010",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0955,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0955,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.277,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.277,
"percent_delta": -0.0845,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3197,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3197,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9292,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.0762,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3501,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3501,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6794,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3206,
"percent_delta": 0.4719,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6794,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3206,
"percent_delta": 0.4719,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3501,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3501,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.399,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.399,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.399,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.399,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1198,
"predicted_3B": 0.0125,
"predicted_BB": 0.361,
"predicted_H": 0.8538,
"predicted_HR": 0.0765,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4333,
"predicted_SO": 0.7004
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1198,
"delta": 0.1198,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.361,
"delta": 0.361,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8538,
"delta": -0.1462,
"percent_delta": -0.1462,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0765,
"delta": 0.0765,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
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],
"summary": {
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}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.246,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.322,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.354,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0376,
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},
{
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"delta": -0.361,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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{
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.322,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.354,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.24,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.315,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.345,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
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"delta": 1.0,
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
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"delta": 2.0,
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
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],
"summary": {
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"biggest_deboost": null
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.24,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.307,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.348,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 2.0
},
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}
],
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}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
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{
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"percent_delta": 11.1951,
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},
{
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"percent_delta": 0.5432,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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}
],
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.082 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.240 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.280 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.329 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.910 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.331 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.425 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.330 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.348 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.658 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.096 | 0.013 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.277 | 0.037 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.278 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.316 | -0.013 |
| predicted_H | 0.914 | 0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.018 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.032 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.332 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.387 | -0.038 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.340 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.350 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.687 | 0.029 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.096 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.277 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.284 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.320 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.929 | 0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.033 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.347 | 0.015 |
| predicted_R | 0.399 | 0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.350 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.357 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.679 | -0.008 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.289 HR/AB=0.010
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.120 | 0.120 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.361 | 0.361 |
| H | 0.854 | -0.146 |
| HR | 0.076 | 0.076 |
| RBI | 0.433 | 0.433 |
| SO | 0.700 | -0.300 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.120 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.246 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.361 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.146 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.076 |
| OBP | 0.322 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.433 |
| SLG | 0.354 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.300 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.096 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.023 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.277 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | -0.038 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.320 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.071 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.033 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | -0.025 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.399 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.350 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.321 |
KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.240 | -0.006 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.315 | -0.007 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.345 | -0.009 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 2.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.2778 | 0.3158 | 0.3333 | 0.2778 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 0.2812 | 0.3429 | 0.3125 | 0.2812 | 0.0000 | 0.0938 | 0.0938 | 0.2500 |
| season | 0.60 | 73 | - | 233.000 | 65.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 33.000 | 31.000 | 24.000 | 48.000 | 0.2790 | 0.3421 | 0.3605 | 0.2790 | 0.0129 | 0.1416 | 0.1030 | 0.2060 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1140 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3280 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2760 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2980 |
| predicted_H | 0.9190 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0180 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3338 |
| predicted_R | 0.3350 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3530 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3517 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7280 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0820 | 0.1140 | 0.0955 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0270 | 0.0170 | 0.0228 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.2400 | 3.3280 | 3.2770 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2800 | 0.2760 | 0.2783 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3290 | 0.2980 | 0.3160 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9100 | 0.9190 | 0.9138 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0180 | 0.0180 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 | 0.0350 | 0.0321 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3310 | 0.3338 | 0.3322 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4250 | 0.3350 | 0.3872 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3300 | 0.3530 | 0.3397 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3480 | 0.3517 | 0.3496 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6580 | 0.7280 | 0.6874 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 251 |
| Season rows before report date | 251 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 73 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 1 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 806198 |
| playerID | 806198 |
| playerName | Cooper Pratt |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.32 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.315 |
| sl_xba | 0.266 |
| sl_xslg | 0.362 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 41.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 27.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 9.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.209 | 0.000 | -0.209 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.170 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.495 | 4.000 | 0.505 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.239 | 0.250 | -0.239 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.278 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.326 | 0.000 | -0.326 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.027 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.730 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.837 | 1.000 | -0.837 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.048 | 0.000 | -0.048 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.305 | 0.250 | -0.305 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.343 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.393 | 0.000 | -0.393 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.436 | 0.000 | -0.436 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.293 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.340 | 0.250 | -0.340 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.352 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.420 | 0.000 | 0.580 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.1700 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.8300, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7300 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7300, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.2780 -> 0.3474 (boost 0.0694, better) | predicted_AB: 3.1700 -> 3.0822 (deboost -0.0878, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3038 -> 0.3186 (boost 0.0148, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3278 -> 0.3145 (deboost -0.0133, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.7284 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2716, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4078 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4078, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.009 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3226 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3226, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 0.4177 (boost 0.4177, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7980 (deboost -0.2020, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SLG: 0.3186 -> 0.3420 (boost 0.0234, better) | predicted_H: 0.7980 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7980, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3420 -> 0.3340 (deboost -0.0080, worse) | KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3340 -> 0.3450 (boost 0.0110, better) | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "686217",
"player_name": "Sal Frelick",
"position": "RF",
"team": "MIL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.167,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.17,
"predicted_AVG": 0.232,
"predicted_BB": 0.278,
"predicted_H": 0.73,
"predicted_HR": 0.03,
"predicted_OBP": 0.326,
"predicted_R": 0.343,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4,
"predicted_SLG": 0.293,
"predicted_SO": 0.352
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1649,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.0822,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2335,
"predicted_BB": 0.3474,
"predicted_H": 0.7163,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.0287,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3278,
"predicted_R": 0.313,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3957,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3038,
"predicted_SO": 0.3019
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.17,
"after": 3.0822,
"delta": -0.0878,
"percent_delta": -0.0277,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.3474,
"delta": 0.0694,
"percent_delta": 0.2496,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.293,
"after": 0.3038,
"delta": 0.0108,
"percent_delta": 0.0369,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.3019,
"delta": -0.0501,
"percent_delta": -0.1423,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 0.3474,
"delta": 0.0694,
"percent_delta": 0.2496,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 3.17,
"after": 3.0822,
"delta": -0.0878,
"percent_delta": -0.0277,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 108
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1649,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.0822,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2363,
"predicted_BB": 0.3514,
"predicted_H": 0.7284,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.0293,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3145,
"predicted_R": 0.3226,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4078,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3186,
"predicted_SO": 0.2984
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3278,
"after": 0.3145,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -0.0406,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3038,
"after": 0.3186,
"delta": 0.0148,
"percent_delta": 0.0487,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3038,
"after": 0.3186,
"delta": 0.0148,
"percent_delta": 0.0487,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3278,
"after": 0.3145,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -0.0406,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.009",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1649,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1649,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0822,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.0822,
"percent_delta": -0.0267,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3514,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3514,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7284,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2716,
"percent_delta": 0.3729,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4078,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4078,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.2984,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2984,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.7284,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2716,
"percent_delta": 0.3729,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4078,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4078,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3226,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3226,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.3226,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3226,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1435,
"predicted_3B": 0.0073,
"predicted_BB": 0.3499,
"predicted_H": 0.798,
"predicted_HR": 0.0695,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3779,
"predicted_SO": 0.4177
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1435,
"delta": 0.1435,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.3499,
"delta": 0.3499,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.798,
"delta": -0.202,
"percent_delta": -0.202,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0695,
"delta": 0.0695,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.3779,
"delta": 0.3779,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.4177,
"delta": 0.4177,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.4177,
"delta": 0.4177,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.798,
"delta": -0.202,
"percent_delta": -0.202,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.234,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.311,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.342,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1435,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1435,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3499,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3499,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.798,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.798,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0695,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0695,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3779,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3779,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3186,
"after": 0.342,
"delta": 0.0234,
"percent_delta": 0.0734,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.4177,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4177,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.234,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.311,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.342,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.229,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.304,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.334,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.234,
"after": 0.229,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.311,
"after": 0.304,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0225,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.342,
"after": 0.334,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -0.0234,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.008,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.238,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.302,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.345,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.238,
"delta": 0.009,
"percent_delta": 0.0393,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.334,
"after": 0.345,
"delta": 0.011,
"percent_delta": 0.0329,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.334,
"after": 0.345,
"delta": 0.011,
"percent_delta": 0.0329,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.167,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.167,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.17,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.83,
"percent_delta": 0.2618,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.238,
"delta": 0.006,
"percent_delta": 0.0259,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.278,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.73,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.73,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.326,
"after": 0.302,
"delta": -0.024,
"percent_delta": -0.0736,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.343,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.293,
"after": 0.345,
"delta": 0.052,
"percent_delta": 0.1775,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.648,
"percent_delta": 1.8409,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.17,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.83,
"percent_delta": 0.2618,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.73,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.73,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.170 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.278 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.730 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.343 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.293 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.352 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.165 | -0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.082 | -0.088 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.347 | 0.069 |
| predicted_H | 0.716 | -0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.029 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.328 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.313 | -0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.396 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.304 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.302 | -0.050 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.165 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.082 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.351 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.728 | 0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.029 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.323 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.408 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.319 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 0.298 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.009
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.143 | 0.143 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.350 | 0.350 |
| H | 0.798 | -0.202 |
| HR | 0.070 | 0.070 |
| RBI | 0.378 | 0.378 |
| SO | 0.418 | 0.418 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.143 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.234 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.350 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.798 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.070 |
| OBP | 0.311 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.378 |
| SLG | 0.342 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.418 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.165 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.082 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.351 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.728 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.029 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.323 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.408 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.342 | 0.023 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.298 |
KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.229 | -0.005 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.304 | -0.007 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.334 | -0.008 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.2308 | 0.4118 | 0.3077 | 0.2308 | 0.0000 | 0.1538 | 0.3077 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 25.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.2400 | 0.3548 | 0.2800 | 0.2400 | 0.0000 | 0.1600 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.60 | 108 | - | 338.000 | 79.000 | 18.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 39.000 | 37.000 | 30.000 | 38.000 | 0.2337 | 0.2984 | 0.3225 | 0.2337 | 0.0118 | 0.1154 | 0.0888 | 0.1124 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1620 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 2.9650 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2354 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4400 |
| predicted_H | 0.6980 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0270 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3303 |
| predicted_R | 0.2730 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3900 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3182 |
| predicted_SO | 0.2350 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1670 | 0.1620 | 0.1649 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1700 | 2.9650 | 3.0822 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2320 | 0.2354 | 0.2335 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2780 | 0.4400 | 0.3474 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7300 | 0.6980 | 0.7163 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0120 | 0.0120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 | 0.0270 | 0.0287 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3260 | 0.3303 | 0.3278 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3430 | 0.2730 | 0.3130 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4000 | 0.3900 | 0.3957 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2930 | 0.3182 | 0.3038 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.3520 | 0.2350 | 0.3019 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 374 |
| Season rows before report date | 374 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 108 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 686217 |
| playerID | 686217 |
| playerName | Sal Frelick |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 9.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.275 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.281 |
| sl_xba | 0.241 |
| sl_xslg | 0.324 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 26.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 9.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 10.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.232 | 0.000 | -0.232 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.029 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.034 | 0.000 | -0.034 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.960 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.541 | 4.000 | 0.459 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.273 | 0.000 | -0.273 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.430 | 0.000 | -0.430 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.057 | 0.000 | -0.057 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.910 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.966 | 0.000 | -0.966 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.083 | 0.000 | -0.083 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.357 | 0.000 | -0.357 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.521 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.582 | 0.000 | -0.582 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.300 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.525 | 0.000 | -0.525 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.341 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.428 | 0.000 | -0.428 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.200 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.184 | 3.000 | 0.816 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.2000 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.8000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9100 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_OBP: 0.3150 -> 0.3206 (boost 0.0056, better) | predicted_AB: 3.9600 -> 3.6752 (deboost -0.2848, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3337 -> 0.3483 (boost 0.0146, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3206 -> 0.3140 (deboost -0.0066, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.8654 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1346, better) | predicted_AB: 3.6752 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.6752, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.017 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5589 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4411, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4384 (boost 0.4384, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8187 (deboost -0.1813, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.4384 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5616, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3670 -> 0.3580 (deboost -0.0090, worse) | KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3250 -> 0.3200 (deboost -0.0050, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669003",
"player_name": "Garrett Mitchell",
"position": "CF",
"team": "MIL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2,
"predicted_3B": 0.029,
"predicted_AB": 3.96,
"predicted_AVG": 0.23,
"predicted_BB": 0.4,
"predicted_H": 0.91,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.315,
"predicted_R": 0.521,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3,
"predicted_SLG": 0.341,
"predicted_SO": 1.2
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1661,
"predicted_3B": 0.0238,
"predicted_AB": 3.6752,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2319,
"predicted_BB": 0.4161,
"predicted_H": 0.851,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.0657,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3206,
"predicted_R": 0.5423,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2822,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3337,
"predicted_SO": 1.236
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.96,
"after": 3.6752,
"delta": -0.2848,
"percent_delta": -0.0719,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.91,
"after": 0.851,
"delta": -0.059,
"percent_delta": -0.0648,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.315,
"after": 0.3206,
"delta": 0.0056,
"percent_delta": 0.0178,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.341,
"after": 0.3337,
"delta": -0.0073,
"percent_delta": -0.0214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 0.3206,
"delta": 0.0056,
"percent_delta": 0.0178,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 3.96,
"after": 3.6752,
"delta": -0.2848,
"percent_delta": -0.0719,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 140
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0238,
"predicted_AB": 3.6752,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2355,
"predicted_BB": 0.4209,
"predicted_H": 0.8654,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.067,
"predicted_OBP": 0.314,
"predicted_R": 0.5589,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2908,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3483,
"predicted_SO": 1.2217
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3206,
"after": 0.314,
"delta": -0.0066,
"percent_delta": -0.0206,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3337,
"after": 0.3483,
"delta": 0.0146,
"percent_delta": 0.0438,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.3337,
"after": 0.3483,
"delta": 0.0146,
"percent_delta": 0.0438,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3206,
"after": 0.314,
"delta": -0.0066,
"percent_delta": -0.0206,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.017",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1661,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1661,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6752,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.6752,
"percent_delta": -0.1837,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4209,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4209,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8654,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1346,
"percent_delta": 0.1555,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.067,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.067,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2908,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2908,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.2217,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.2217,
"percent_delta": -0.1815,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.8654,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1346,
"percent_delta": 0.1555,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 3.6752,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.6752,
"percent_delta": -0.1837,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5589,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4411,
"percent_delta": 0.7892,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.4411,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1509,
"predicted_3B": 0.0142,
"predicted_BB": 0.4384,
"predicted_H": 0.8187,
"predicted_HR": 0.0843,
"predicted_RBI": 0.39,
"predicted_SO": 1.1099
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1509,
"delta": 0.1509,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.4384,
"delta": 0.4384,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8187,
"delta": -0.1813,
"percent_delta": -0.1813,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0843,
"delta": 0.0843,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.39,
"delta": 0.39,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1099,
"delta": 0.1099,
"percent_delta": 0.1099,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.4384,
"delta": 0.4384,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8187,
"delta": -0.1813,
"percent_delta": -0.1813,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.24,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.332,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.367,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1509,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1509,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4384,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5616,
"percent_delta": 1.281,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8187,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1813,
"percent_delta": 0.2214,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0843,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0843,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.332,
"delta": 0.018,
"percent_delta": 0.0573,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.39,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3483,
"after": 0.367,
"delta": 0.0187,
"percent_delta": 0.0537,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1099,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1099,
"percent_delta": -0.099,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4384,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5616,
"percent_delta": 1.281,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.24,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.332,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.367,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.234,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.325,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.358,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.234,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.025,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.332,
"after": 0.325,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0211,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.367,
"after": 0.358,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -0.0245,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.367,
"after": 0.358,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -0.0245,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.232,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.32,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.362,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.32,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0154,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.32,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0154,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.91,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.91,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.315,
"after": 0.32,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0159,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.521,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.521,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.341,
"after": 0.362,
"delta": 0.021,
"percent_delta": 0.0616,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.2,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.8,
"percent_delta": 0.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 1.2,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.8,
"percent_delta": 0.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.91,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.91,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.029 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.960 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.910 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.521 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.300 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.341 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.200 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | -0.034 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.675 | -0.285 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.416 | 0.016 |
| predicted_H | 0.851 | -0.059 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.066 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.321 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.542 | 0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.282 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.334 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 1.236 | 0.036 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.675 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.421 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.865 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.067 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.559 | 0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.291 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.348 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 1.222 | -0.014 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.017
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.151 | 0.151 |
| 3B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.438 | 0.438 |
| H | 0.819 | -0.181 |
| HR | 0.084 | 0.084 |
| RBI | 0.390 | 0.390 |
| SO | 1.110 | 0.110 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.151 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.240 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.562 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.181 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.084 |
| OBP | 0.332 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.390 |
| SLG | 0.367 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.110 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.024 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.675 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.579 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.135 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.067 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.332 | 0.018 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.559 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.291 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.367 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.222 |
KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.234 | -0.006 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.325 | -0.007 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.358 | -0.009 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 0.2000 | 0.3333 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.4667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 15.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2821 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1143 | 0.4286 |
| season | 0.60 | 140 | - | 461.000 | 118.000 | 28.000 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 58.000 | 73.000 | 56.000 | 168.000 | 0.2560 | 0.3435 | 0.3991 | 0.2560 | 0.0217 | 0.1258 | 0.1215 | 0.3644 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1220 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3040 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2344 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4370 |
| predicted_H | 0.7740 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0260 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0470 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3279 |
| predicted_R | 0.5700 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2590 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3242 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2830 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2000 | 0.1220 | 0.1661 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0290 | 0.0170 | 0.0238 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9600 | 3.3040 | 3.6752 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2300 | 0.2344 | 0.2319 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4000 | 0.4370 | 0.4161 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9100 | 0.7740 | 0.8510 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0260 | 0.0260 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0470 | 0.0657 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3150 | 0.3279 | 0.3206 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5210 | 0.5700 | 0.5423 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3000 | 0.2590 | 0.2822 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3410 | 0.3242 | 0.3337 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.2000 | 1.2830 | 1.2360 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 505 |
| Season rows before report date | 505 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 140 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 3 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669003 |
| playerID | 669003 |
| playerName | Garrett Mitchell |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.34 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.353 |
| sl_xba | 0.268 |
| sl_xslg | 0.447 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 52.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 93.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 2.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.117 | 0.000 | -0.117 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.034 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.034 | 0.000 | -0.034 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.127 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.244 | 2.000 | 0.756 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_AVG | 0.280 | 0.500 | 0.220 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.288 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.308 | 0.000 | -0.308 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.037 | 0.000 | -0.037 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.831 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_H | 0.907 | 1.000 | 1.093 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.076 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.098 | 0.000 | -0.098 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.328 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.338 | 0.500 | 0.162 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.398 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.450 | 0.000 | 0.550 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.418 | 0.000 | -0.418 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.427 | 0.500 | 0.073 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.712 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.692 | 0.000 | -0.692 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.8310 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1690, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7120 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7120, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.7120 -> 0.8057 (boost 0.0937, worse) | predicted_SLG: 0.3960 -> 0.3809 (deboost -0.0151, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3250 -> 0.3303 (boost 0.0053, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.7964 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2036, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3678 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3678, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.021 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3894 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3894, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3949 (boost 0.3949, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7470 (deboost -0.2530, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 8 | predicted_SO: 0.7470 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2530, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3949 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3949, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3720 -> 0.3630 (deboost -0.0090, worse) | KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3120 -> 0.2990 (deboost -0.0130, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "687401",
"player_name": "Joey Ortiz",
"position": "3B",
"team": "MIL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.11,
"predicted_3B": 0.034,
"predicted_AB": 3.127,
"predicted_AVG": 0.266,
"predicted_BB": 0.288,
"predicted_H": 0.831,
"predicted_HR": 0.076,
"predicted_OBP": 0.328,
"predicted_R": 0.398,
"predicted_RBI": 0.39,
"predicted_SLG": 0.396,
"predicted_SO": 0.712
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0954,
"predicted_3B": 0.0357,
"predicted_AB": 3.2065,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2663,
"predicted_BB": 0.282,
"predicted_H": 0.8538,
"predicted_HBP": 0.002,
"predicted_HR": 0.0661,
"predicted_OBP": 0.325,
"predicted_R": 0.3778,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3569,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3809,
"predicted_SO": 0.8057
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.127,
"after": 3.2065,
"delta": 0.0795,
"percent_delta": 0.0254,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.3809,
"delta": -0.0151,
"percent_delta": -0.0381,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 0.8057,
"delta": 0.0937,
"percent_delta": 0.1316,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.3809,
"delta": -0.0151,
"percent_delta": -0.0381,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 118
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0357,
"predicted_AB": 3.2065,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2708,
"predicted_BB": 0.2853,
"predicted_H": 0.8682,
"predicted_HBP": 0.002,
"predicted_HR": 0.0674,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3303,
"predicted_R": 0.3894,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3678,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3859,
"predicted_SO": 0.7964
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3303,
"delta": 0.0053,
"percent_delta": 0.0163,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3809,
"after": 0.3859,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0131,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
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"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"delta": 0.0053,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.021",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0954,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0954,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
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{
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"before": 3.2065,
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"delta": -0.2065,
"percent_delta": -0.0644,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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{
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"delta": -0.2853,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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{
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"delta": 0.1318,
"percent_delta": 0.1518,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0674,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3678,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3678,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2036,
"percent_delta": 0.2557,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.2036,
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
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"delta": -0.3678,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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"delta": -0.3894,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
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}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0147,
"predicted_BB": 0.3279,
"predicted_H": 0.8245,
"predicted_HR": 0.0899,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3949,
"predicted_SO": 0.747
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"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.119,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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"direction": "boost",
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{
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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"direction": "boost",
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"delta": -0.253,
"percent_delta": -0.253,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.3949,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.247,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.32,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.372,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.119,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.2708,
"after": 0.247,
"delta": -0.0238,
"percent_delta": -0.0879,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.3279,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": 0.1755,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.0899,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.3949,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.0139,
"percent_delta": -0.036,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.747,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.253,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 8,
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"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.247,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.32,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.372,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.241,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.363,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.247,
"after": 0.241,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.0243,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.312,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -0.025,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.372,
"after": 0.363,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -0.0242,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.372,
"after": 0.363,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -0.0242,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.235,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.299,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.359,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.235,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.0249,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.299,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -0.0417,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.299,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -0.0417,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.11,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.127,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.873,
"percent_delta": 0.2792,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.235,
"delta": -0.031,
"percent_delta": -0.1165,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.288,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.169,
"percent_delta": 1.4067,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.076,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.076,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.299,
"delta": -0.029,
"percent_delta": -0.0884,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.398,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.602,
"percent_delta": 1.5126,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.39,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.359,
"delta": -0.037,
"percent_delta": -0.0934,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.712,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.712,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.169,
"percent_delta": 1.4067,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.712,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.712,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.034 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.127 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.288 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.831 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.076 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.398 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.712 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.095 | -0.015 |
| predicted_3B | 0.036 | 0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.207 | 0.080 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.282 | -0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.854 | 0.023 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.066 | -0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.378 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.357 | -0.033 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.381 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 0.806 | 0.094 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.095 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.036 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.207 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.271 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.285 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.868 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.067 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.330 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.389 | 0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.368 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.386 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.796 | -0.009 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.021
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.119 | 0.119 |
| 3B | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| BB | 0.328 | 0.328 |
| H | 0.825 | -0.175 |
| HR | 0.090 | 0.090 |
| RBI | 0.395 | 0.395 |
| SO | 0.747 | -0.253 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.247 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.328 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.175 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.090 |
| OBP | 0.320 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.395 |
| SLG | 0.372 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.253 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.095 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.036 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.207 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | -0.024 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.285 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.132 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.067 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.389 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.368 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.372 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.204 |
KPI club run ratio x0.951 applied to runs and RBI, x0.975 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.241 | -0.006 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.312 | -0.008 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.363 | -0.009 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.2941 | 0.3333 | 0.2941 | 0.2941 | 0.0000 | 0.0588 | 0.0588 | 0.3529 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 14.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3077 | 0.3056 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0278 | 0.0833 | 0.3889 |
| season | 0.60 | 118 | - | 369.000 | 98.000 | 13.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 46.000 | 47.000 | 34.000 | 84.000 | 0.2656 | 0.3235 | 0.3957 | 0.2656 | 0.0244 | 0.1247 | 0.0921 | 0.2276 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0760 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0380 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3120 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2668 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2740 |
| predicted_H | 0.8840 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0530 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3211 |
| predicted_R | 0.3510 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3130 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3608 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9300 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1100 | 0.0760 | 0.0954 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0340 | 0.0380 | 0.0357 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1270 | 3.3120 | 3.2065 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2660 | 0.2668 | 0.2663 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2880 | 0.2740 | 0.2820 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8310 | 0.8840 | 0.8538 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0760 | 0.0530 | 0.0661 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3280 | 0.3211 | 0.3250 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3980 | 0.3510 | 0.3778 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3900 | 0.3130 | 0.3569 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3960 | 0.3608 | 0.3809 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7120 | 0.9300 | 0.8057 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 409 |
| Season rows before report date | 409 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 118 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 1 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 687401 |
| playerID | 687401 |
| playerName | Joey Ortiz |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.321 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.297 |
| sl_xba | 0.243 |
| sl_xslg | 0.346 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 6.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.667 | 1.000 | -0.667 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.238 | 1.000 | -0.238 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_H | 4.524 | 1.000 | -1.524 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 3.200 | 3.200 | 3.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.029 | 6.000 | -1.829 | -2.800 |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_SO | 4.905 | 9.000 | -0.905 | -5.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 4 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_ER: 5.0000 -> 2.0000 (deboost -3.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score |
| 8 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | - | predicted_ER: 5.0000 -> 2.0000 (deboost -3.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 9 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "688107",
"player_name": "Robert Gasser",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "MIL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 5.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.3333,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 3.2,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -0.6,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.3333,
"after": 3.2,
"delta": -2.1333,
"percent_delta": -0.4,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.2,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -0.6,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 3.2,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -0.6,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.3333,
"after": 3.2,
"delta": -2.1333,
"percent_delta": -0.4,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.2,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -0.6,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| BF | 15.000 | - |
| ER | 2.000 | - |
| H | 3.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 3.200 | - |
| Pitches | 64.000 | - |
| R | 2.000 | - |
| SO | 4.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 27.000 | 5.000 | 13.000 | 10.000 | 25.000 | 2.000 | 1.6667 | 0.8519 | 0.1852 | 0.4815 | 0.3704 | 0.9259 | 0.0741 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 52.000 | 17.000 | 42.000 | 21.000 | 51.000 | 4.000 | 2.9423 | 1.2115 | 0.3269 | 0.8077 | 0.4038 | 0.9808 | 0.0769 |
| season | 0.20 | 21 | 109.100 | 47.000 | 95.000 | 35.000 | 103.000 | 15.000 | 3.8689 | 1.1890 | 0.4299 | 0.8689 | 0.3201 | 0.9421 | 0.1372 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.9930 |
| predicted_ER | 1.7490 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.9518 |
| predicted_H | 3.9100 |
| predicted_HR | 0.5300 |
| predicted_IP | 5.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 5.0430 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1068 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 1.9930 | 1.5648 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 5.0000 | 1.7490 | 3.1510 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.9518 | 2.9518 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 4.0000 | 3.9100 | 3.9488 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.5300 | 0.3014 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.1000 | 5.1000 | 5.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 5.0000 | 5.0430 | 5.0245 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1068 | 1.1068 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 21 |
| Season rows before report date | 21 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 21 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 3.2 |
| H | 3 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 4 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 15 |
| Pitches | 64 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 20 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.87 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 6.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 87 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 9 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 57 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260925_STL@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 688107 |
| playerID | 688107 |
| playerName | Robert Gasser |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.309 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.317 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.591601538 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.170492147 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.600 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.480 | 0.000 | 0.520 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.720 | 1.000 | 0.280 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.600 | 1.000 | 0.400 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | boosted |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_ER: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_ER: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | - | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "622608",
"player_name": "Antonio Senzatela",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "MIL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
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"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "boosted"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| BF | 4.000 | - |
| ER | 1.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 1.000 | - |
| Pitches | 14.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.3846 | 0.0000 | 0.9231 | 0.4615 | 0.6923 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.100 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 2.1600 | 1.3200 | 0.2400 | 1.0800 | 0.2400 | 0.7200 | 0.1200 |
| season | 0.20 | 59 | 75.000 | 33.000 | 76.000 | 27.000 | 61.000 | 6.000 | 3.9600 | 1.3733 | 0.4400 | 1.0133 | 0.3600 | 0.8133 | 0.0800 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3540 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2460 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.2990 |
| predicted_H | 0.9560 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0770 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7480 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3612 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.3540 | 0.6467 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2460 | 0.1345 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.2990 | 2.2990 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.9560 | 0.5228 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0770 | 0.0421 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.7480 | 0.4091 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3612 | 1.3612 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 25 |
| Season rows before report date | 25 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 59 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 14 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 14 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 622608 |
| playerID | 622608 |
| playerName | Antonio Senzatela |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.31 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.31 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.021888727 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.288859455 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.532 | 0.000 | -0.532 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.403 | 0.000 | 0.597 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 1.013 | 2.000 | -0.013 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.095 | 1.000 | 0.005 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.532 | 1.000 | 0.468 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 4 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "676879",
"player_name": "Aaron Ashby",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "MIL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 5.000 | - |
| ER | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HR | 1.000 | - |
| IP | 1.100 | - |
| Pitches | 19.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 7.200 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.2609 | 0.0000 | 0.2609 | 0.0000 | 0.9130 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 13.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 2.0769 | 0.9231 | 0.2308 | 0.6923 | 0.2308 | 0.6923 | 0.0769 |
| season | 0.20 | 77 | 92.000 | 31.000 | 78.000 | 41.000 | 118.000 | 8.000 | 3.0326 | 1.2935 | 0.3370 | 0.8478 | 0.4456 | 1.2826 | 0.0870 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3100 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3260 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.0193 |
| predicted_H | 0.9070 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0960 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3280 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.8381 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3100 | 0.1742 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3260 | 0.1832 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.0193 | 2.0193 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.9070 | 0.9477 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0960 | 0.0539 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.3280 | 0.7463 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.8381 | 0.8381 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 77 |
| Season rows before report date | 77 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 77 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 19 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 12 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 9 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261004_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 676879 |
| playerID | 676879 |
| playerName | Aaron Ashby |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-04 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.287 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.268 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 32.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.20475045 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.447155135 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.231 | 0.000 | 0.769 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.277 | 0.000 | -0.277 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_H | 0.631 | 0.000 | 2.369 | 3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.963 | 1.000 | 3.037 | 3.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.092 | 0.000 | -0.092 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 4 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 3.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 3.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -2.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 3.0000, worse) | predicted_SO: 3.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -2.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656730",
"player_name": "Trevor Megill",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "MIL",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": 3.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.6667,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.6667,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": 3.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.6667,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.6667,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| BF | 17.000 | - |
| ER | 0.000 | - |
| H | 3.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 4.000 | - |
| Pitches | 67.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.100 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.3750 | 0.0000 | 0.3750 | 0.0000 | 0.9375 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.200 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 4.6552 | 1.1379 | 0.5172 | 1.0345 | 0.1035 | 0.9310 | 0.1035 |
| season | 0.20 | 64 | 64.000 | 14.000 | 39.000 | 15.000 | 71.000 | 1.000 | 1.9688 | 0.8438 | 0.2188 | 0.6094 | 0.2344 | 1.1094 | 0.0156 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1650 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3040 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.7372 |
| predicted_H | 0.7440 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0690 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9600 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.9087 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1650 | 0.0881 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3040 | 0.1623 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.7372 | 2.7372 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.7440 | 0.3973 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0690 | 0.0368 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 3.0000 | 0.9600 | 1.9106 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.9087 | 0.9087 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 65 |
| Season rows before report date | 65 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 64 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 4.0 |
| H | 3 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 17 |
| Pitches | 67 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 9 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261004_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656730 |
| playerID | 656730 |
| playerName | Trevor Megill |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-04 |
| sl_k_percent | 28.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.208 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.252 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 81.208537368 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.306671184 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Walker Buehler |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.1628 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0012 |
| Avg Velo | 89.8422 |
| Avg Spin | 2199.0810 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 3.2000 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 4 |
| Pre BB | 3 |
| Pre SO | 4 |
| Season ERA | 4.6269 |
| Season WHIP | 1.3471 |
| Role Avg IP | 4.8020 |
| Recent Avg IP | 4.4670 |
| Last Start IP | 3.2000 |
{
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9936,
"defense_index": 1.0671,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1885
},
"opponent": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358,
"runs_scored": 832.0,
"runs_allowed": 618.0,
"run_differential": 214.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
"offense_index": 1.1449,
"defense_index": 1.1759,
"current_streak": "W5",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
"run_differential": 14.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3824
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1939,
"offense_edge": -0.0064,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1449,
"defense_strength": 0.0671,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1759,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9885,
"run_prevention": 1.0262,
"strikeout": 0.9826
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "621111",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621111",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 583.0,
"k_percent": 20.1,
"bb_percent": 8.8,
"woba": 0.329,
"xwoba": 0.317,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
"avg_best_speed": 78.722,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.112,
"whiff_percent": 19.5,
"swing_percent": 45.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.169,
"command_and_miss": -0.3936,
"regression_edge": 0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"barrel_edge": -0.2667,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.1143,
"whiff_edge": -0.8143,
"bb_edge": 0.1,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0012
},
"quality_score": -0.1628,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0138,
"strikeout_factor": 0.956,
"walk_factor": 0.992,
"homer_factor": 1.0302,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "621111",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0138,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 1.0138,
"adjusted": 4
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.992,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0302,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 0.956,
"adjusted": 4
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 49.1,
"ER": 19,
"H": 43,
"BB": 13,
"SO": 39,
"HR": 8,
"ERA": 3.4662162162162162,
"WHIP": 1.135135135135135,
"K9": 7.114864864864865,
"HR9": 1.4594594594594594,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 4,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621111",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 69,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 69,
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"release_pos_z": null,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
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"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 69,
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],
"summary": {
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"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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}
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}{
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}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Bradgley Rodriguez |
| Role | Long Reliever |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 1.0127 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 1.7089 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9747 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.1360 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.4000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
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"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
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"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
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"strikeout": 0.9826
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"profile": {
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"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
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"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
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"fielding": {
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}{
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}{
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},
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},
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},
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}
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"H": 56.0,
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"SO": 88.0,
"HR": 4.0,
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},
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}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
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}
}{
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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},
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},
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},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
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"final": 2.1422,
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},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.0688,
"final": 1.0688,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jason Adam |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0599 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.1391 |
| Avg Velo | 87.3795 |
| Avg Spin | 2393.0679 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.4545 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1727 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.8940 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
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"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
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"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1885
},
"opponent": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358,
"runs_scored": 832.0,
"runs_allowed": 618.0,
"run_differential": 214.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
"offense_index": 1.1449,
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},
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},
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},
"player_factors": {
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"run_prevention": 1.0262,
"strikeout": 0.9826
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "592094",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "592094",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"bb_percent": 7.0,
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},
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}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
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},
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},
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"latest_game_date": "2026-10-06T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "592094",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 24,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 24,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
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],
"summary": {
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}{
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}{
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}{
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"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Adrian Morejon |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 1.1536 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 4 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 4 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 3 |
| Season ERA | 2.8000 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0778 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.1540 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.4670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
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"team": {
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"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
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"player_factors": {
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"strikeout": 0.9826
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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"pitcher_id": "670970",
"profile": {
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"player_name": "",
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},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
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},
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}{
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}{
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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}
},
"blend_segments": {},
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}{
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1382,
"final": 1.1382,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.198 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.213 | 0.000 | -0.213 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.960 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.047 | 4.000 | -1.047 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.291 | 0.000 | 0.042 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.389 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.409 | 0.000 | 1.591 | 2.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.084 | 0.000 | -0.084 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.190 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.178 | 0.000 | -0.178 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.164 | 0.000 | -0.164 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | 0.600 | 0.600 | Hitting_OBP | 0.359 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.600 |
| predicted_R | 0.611 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.636 | 0.000 | 0.364 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.570 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.551 | 1.000 | -0.551 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.435 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.476 | 0.000 | -0.143 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.840 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.846 | 1.000 | -0.846 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3890 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.6110, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.9600 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.9600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_OBP: 0.2960 -> 0.3031 (boost 0.0071, better) | predicted_AB: 4.9600 -> 4.5510 (deboost -0.4090, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4262 -> 0.4021 (deboost -0.0241, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.8884 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1116, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.5510 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.5510, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5999 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4001, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4823 (boost 0.4823, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.8281 (deboost -0.1719, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | predicted_2B: 0.1740 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8260, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4228 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4228, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2610 -> 0.2560 (deboost -0.0050, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "665487",
"player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
"position": "RF",
"team": "SD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.198,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 4.96,
"predicted_AVG": 0.241,
"predicted_BB": 0.389,
"predicted_H": 1.19,
"predicted_HR": 0.2,
"predicted_OBP": 0.296,
"predicted_R": 0.611,
"predicted_RBI": 0.57,
"predicted_SLG": 0.435,
"predicted_SO": 0.84
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1818,
"predicted_3B": 0.0155,
"predicted_AB": 4.551,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2467,
"predicted_BB": 0.364,
"predicted_H": 1.1168,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.1803,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3031,
"predicted_R": 0.6233,
"predicted_RBI": 0.527,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4262,
"predicted_SO": 0.883
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.96,
"after": 4.551,
"delta": -0.409,
"percent_delta": -0.0825,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2467,
"delta": 0.0057,
"percent_delta": 0.0237,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.19,
"after": 1.1168,
"delta": -0.0732,
"percent_delta": -0.0615,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": 0.0071,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": -0.0088,
"percent_delta": -0.0202,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.409,
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}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 162
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0155,
"predicted_AB": 4.551,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2399,
"predicted_BB": 0.3618,
"predicted_H": 1.0917,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.1752,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2959,
"predicted_R": 0.5999,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5072,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4021,
"predicted_SO": 0.8884
},
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"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.0072,
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"after": 0.4021,
"delta": -0.0241,
"percent_delta": -0.0565,
"direction": "deboost",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"better_metrics": 0,
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"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
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"summary": {
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},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
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"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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{
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{
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"direction": "deboost",
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{
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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}
],
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}
},
{
"index": 6,
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"predicted_CS": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
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}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
{
"index": 10,
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"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.251,
"after": 0.261,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0398,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.339,
"delta": 0.011,
"percent_delta": 0.0335,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.415,
"after": 0.431,
"delta": 0.016,
"percent_delta": 0.0386,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.256,
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.337,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.428,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.261,
"after": 0.256,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0192,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.261,
"after": 0.256,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0192,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.198,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.198,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.96,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.96,
"percent_delta": -0.3952,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.256,
"delta": 0.015,
"percent_delta": 0.0622,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.389,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.611,
"percent_delta": 4.1414,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.19,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -0.1597,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.296,
"after": 0.337,
"delta": 0.041,
"percent_delta": 0.1385,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.611,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.389,
"percent_delta": 0.6367,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.57,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.435,
"after": 0.428,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0161,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.84,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.84,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.389,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.611,
"percent_delta": 4.1414,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.96,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.96,
"percent_delta": -0.3952,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.198 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.960 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.389 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.190 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.611 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.570 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.435 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.840 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.182 | -0.016 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.551 | -0.409 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.364 | -0.025 |
| predicted_H | 1.117 | -0.073 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | -0.020 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.623 | 0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.527 | -0.043 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.426 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.883 | 0.043 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.182 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.551 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.362 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.092 | -0.025 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.175 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.600 | -0.023 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.507 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.402 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 0.888 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.174 | 0.174 |
| 3B | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| BB | 0.423 | 0.423 |
| H | 1.007 | 0.007 |
| HR | 0.150 | 0.150 |
| RBI | 0.482 | 0.482 |
| SO | 0.828 | -0.172 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.826 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.251 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.423 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.007 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| OBP | 0.328 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.518 |
| SLG | 0.415 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.172 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 1.000 | 0.818 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.551 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.362 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.092 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.175 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.328 | 0.032 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.400 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.493 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.415 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.112 |
KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.261 | 0.010 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.339 | 0.011 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.431 | 0.016 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.1429 | 0.1818 | 0.2857 | 0.1429 | 0.0476 | 0.0952 | 0.0476 | 0.2857 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 0.2750 | 0.3256 | 0.4000 | 0.2750 | 0.0250 | 0.1000 | 0.0750 | 0.2500 |
| season | 0.60 | 162 | - | 647.000 | 184.000 | 32.000 | 3.000 | 26.000 | 84.000 | 99.000 | 63.000 | 136.000 | 0.2844 | 0.3518 | 0.4637 | 0.2844 | 0.0402 | 0.1298 | 0.0974 | 0.2102 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1610 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0110 |
| predicted_AB | 4.0270 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2540 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3320 |
| predicted_H | 1.0230 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0260 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1550 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3123 |
| predicted_R | 0.6390 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4720 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4150 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9380 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1980 | 0.1610 | 0.1818 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 | 0.0110 | 0.0155 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.9600 | 4.0270 | 4.5510 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2410 | 0.2540 | 0.2467 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3890 | 0.3320 | 0.3640 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1900 | 1.0230 | 1.1168 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0260 | 0.0260 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2000 | 0.1550 | 0.1803 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2960 | 0.3123 | 0.3031 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6110 | 0.6390 | 0.6233 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5700 | 0.4720 | 0.5270 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4350 | 0.4150 | 0.4262 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8400 | 0.9380 | 0.8830 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 675 |
| Season rows before report date | 675 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 162 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 665487 |
| playerID | 665487 |
| playerName | Fernando Tatis Jr. |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.358 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.379 |
| sl_xba | 0.296 |
| sl_xslg | 0.5 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 53.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 5.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.169 | 0.000 | -0.169 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.031 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.036 | 0.000 | -0.036 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.240 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.002 | 4.000 | 0.998 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | 0.600 | 0.600 | Hitting_AVG | 0.265 | 0.250 | 0.335 | 0.350 |
| predicted_BB | 0.259 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.276 | 0.000 | -0.276 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.310 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_H | 1.059 | 1.000 | 1.941 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.175 | 0.000 | 0.825 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | 0.600 | 0.600 | Hitting_OBP | 0.314 | 0.250 | 0.286 | 0.350 |
| predicted_R | 0.543 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.578 | 1.000 | 0.422 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.540 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.603 | 0.000 | 2.397 | 3.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.408 | 1.200 | 1.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.456 | 0.250 | 0.744 | 0.950 |
| predicted_SO | 1.031 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.016 | 2.000 | -0.016 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.5400 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.4600, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.2590 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2590, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AVG: 0.2510 -> 0.2573 (boost 0.0063, better) | predicted_AB: 5.2400 -> 4.6535 (deboost -0.5865, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3961 -> 0.3640 (deboost -0.0321, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | - | predicted_AB: 4.6535 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.6535, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.022 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5155 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4845, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5538 (boost 0.5538, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5538 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4462, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2698 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2698, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4060 -> 0.4210 (boost 0.0150, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2550 -> 0.2350 (deboost -0.0200, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "701538",
"player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
"position": "CF",
"team": "SD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.16,
"predicted_3B": 0.031,
"predicted_AB": 5.24,
"predicted_AVG": 0.251,
"predicted_BB": 0.259,
"predicted_H": 1.31,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.305,
"predicted_R": 0.543,
"predicted_RBI": 0.54,
"predicted_SLG": 0.408,
"predicted_SO": 1.031
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1421,
"predicted_3B": 0.0253,
"predicted_AB": 4.6535,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2573,
"predicted_BB": 0.2494,
"predicted_H": 1.1896,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.116,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3067,
"predicted_R": 0.5356,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5094,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3961,
"predicted_SO": 1.0726
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.24,
"after": 4.6535,
"delta": -0.5865,
"percent_delta": -0.1119,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.251,
"after": 0.2573,
"delta": 0.0063,
"percent_delta": 0.0251,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.31,
"after": 1.1896,
"delta": -0.1204,
"percent_delta": -0.0919,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": -0.0119,
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"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 162
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0253,
"predicted_AB": 4.6535,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2499,
"predicted_BB": 0.2479,
"predicted_H": 1.1628,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.1127,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2878,
"predicted_R": 0.5155,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4902,
"predicted_SLG": 0.364,
"predicted_SO": 1.0791
},
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"before": 0.2573,
"after": 0.2499,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0288,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3067,
"after": 0.2878,
"delta": -0.0189,
"percent_delta": -0.0616,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3961,
"after": 0.364,
"delta": -0.0321,
"percent_delta": -0.081,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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"material": true
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}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
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"summary": {
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{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
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"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
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"delta": -0.2479,
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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"delta": -0.0791,
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},
{
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
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{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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{
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"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.235,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.292,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.255,
"after": 0.235,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -0.0784,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.292,
"delta": -0.018,
"percent_delta": -0.0581,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.421,
"after": 0.403,
"delta": -0.018,
"percent_delta": -0.0428,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.255,
"after": 0.235,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -0.0784,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.16,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.24,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": -0.24,
"percent_delta": -0.0458,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.251,
"after": 0.235,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -0.0637,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.259,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.259,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.31,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 1.69,
"percent_delta": 1.2901,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.87,
"percent_delta": 6.6923,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.292,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -0.0426,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.543,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.457,
"percent_delta": 0.8416,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.54,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.46,
"percent_delta": 4.5556,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.54,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.46,
"percent_delta": 4.5556,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.259,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.259,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.031 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.240 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.259 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.310 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.543 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.540 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.408 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.031 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.142 | -0.018 |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 4.654 | -0.587 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.257 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.249 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 1.190 | -0.120 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.536 | -0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.509 | -0.031 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 1.073 | 0.042 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.142 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.654 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.248 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.163 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.113 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.288 | -0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.515 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.490 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.364 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 1.079 | 0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.022
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.146 | 0.146 |
| 3B | 0.023 | 0.023 |
| BB | 0.270 | 0.270 |
| H | 0.975 | -0.025 |
| HR | 0.147 | 0.147 |
| RBI | 0.554 | 0.554 |
| SO | 1.115 | 0.115 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.146 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.023 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.246 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.270 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.025 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| OBP | 0.300 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.446 |
| SLG | 0.406 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.115 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.142 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.025 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.654 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.248 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.163 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.113 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.300 | 0.012 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.485 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.510 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.406 | 0.042 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.079 |
KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.255 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.310 | 0.010 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.421 | 0.015 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.3000 | 0.3333 | 0.3000 | 0.3000 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.0500 | 0.3500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 12.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3000 | 0.2895 | 0.2632 | 0.0000 | 0.0790 | 0.0526 | 0.3158 |
| season | 0.60 | 162 | - | 633.000 | 162.000 | 26.000 | 5.000 | 26.000 | 89.000 | 88.000 | 42.000 | 167.000 | 0.2559 | 0.3040 | 0.4360 | 0.2559 | 0.0411 | 0.1406 | 0.0664 | 0.2638 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1190 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0180 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2654 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2370 |
| predicted_H | 1.0350 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0980 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3089 |
| predicted_R | 0.5260 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4700 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3807 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1260 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1600 | 0.1190 | 0.1421 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0310 | 0.0180 | 0.0253 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.2400 | 3.9000 | 4.6535 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2510 | 0.2654 | 0.2573 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2590 | 0.2370 | 0.2494 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.3100 | 1.0350 | 1.1896 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0120 | 0.0120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.0980 | 0.1160 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3050 | 0.3089 | 0.3067 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5430 | 0.5260 | 0.5356 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5400 | 0.4700 | 0.5094 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4080 | 0.3807 | 0.3961 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0310 | 1.1260 | 1.0726 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 645 |
| Season rows before report date | 645 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 162 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 3 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 3 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 701538 |
| playerID | 701538 |
| playerName | Jackson Merrill |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.32 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.347 |
| sl_xba | 0.27 |
| sl_xslg | 0.491 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.153 | 0.000 | -0.153 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.790 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.765 | 3.000 | 0.235 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.223 | 0.333 | -0.223 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.497 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.508 | 1.000 | -0.508 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.920 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.840 | 1.000 | -0.840 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.196 | 0.000 | -0.196 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.358 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.312 | 0.500 | -0.312 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.521 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.552 | 0.000 | -0.552 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.720 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.606 | 1.000 | 0.394 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.462 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.420 | 0.333 | -0.420 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.896 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.897 | 0.000 | 0.103 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SF: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, higher) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4620 -> 0.4796 (boost 0.0176, better) | predicted_AB: 3.7900 -> 3.6967 (deboost -0.0933, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4796 -> 0.4559 (deboost -0.0237, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.5379 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4621, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1995 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1995, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.053 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5073 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4927, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 0.1652 (boost 0.1652, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5056 (deboost -0.4944, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | predicted_HR: 0.1652 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8348, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1471 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1471, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3910 -> 0.4050 (boost 0.0140, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | predicted_SF: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, higher) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4050 -> 0.4170 (boost 0.0120, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3240 -> 0.3140 (deboost -0.0100, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
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"role": "batter",
"player_id": "592518",
"player_name": "Manny Machado",
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"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "higher",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "higher",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.232,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.314,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.417,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.232,
"delta": 0.009,
"percent_delta": 0.0404,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.314,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.0309,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.405,
"after": 0.417,
"delta": 0.012,
"percent_delta": 0.0296,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.405,
"after": 0.417,
"delta": 0.012,
"percent_delta": 0.0296,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.314,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.0309,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.147,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.147,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.79,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.21,
"percent_delta": 0.0554,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.243,
"after": 0.232,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -0.0453,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.497,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.497,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.92,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.92,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.314,
"delta": -0.044,
"percent_delta": -0.1229,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.521,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.521,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.72,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.28,
"percent_delta": 0.3889,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "higher",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.462,
"after": 0.417,
"delta": -0.045,
"percent_delta": -0.0974,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.896,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.104,
"percent_delta": 0.1161,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "higher",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.92,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.92,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.790 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.497 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.920 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.358 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.521 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.720 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.462 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.896 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | 0.029 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.697 | -0.093 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.252 | 0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.541 | 0.044 |
| predicted_H | 0.931 | 0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.205 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.359 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.527 | 0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.695 | -0.025 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.480 | 0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 0.833 | -0.063 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.697 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.538 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.910 | -0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.342 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 0.507 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.669 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.456 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 0.838 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.053
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.147 | 0.147 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.506 | -0.494 |
| H | 0.804 | -0.196 |
| HR | 0.165 | 0.165 |
| RBI | 0.506 | -0.494 |
| SO | 0.854 | -0.146 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.215 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.494 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.196 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.835 |
| OBP | 0.314 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.494 |
| SLG | 0.391 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.146 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.176 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.303 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.215 | -0.031 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.462 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.090 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.800 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | -0.028 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.493 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.331 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.391 | -0.065 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.162 |
KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.223 | 0.008 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.324 | 0.010 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.405 | 0.014 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.3750 | 0.5238 | 0.6875 | 0.3750 | 0.0625 | 0.1875 | 0.3125 | 0.1250 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 0.2857 | 0.3659 | 0.6000 | 0.2857 | 0.0857 | 0.2857 | 0.1429 | 0.2000 |
| season | 0.60 | 163 | - | 605.000 | 134.000 | 24.000 | 0.000 | 31.000 | 94.000 | 85.000 | 81.000 | 146.000 | 0.2215 | 0.3099 | 0.4149 | 0.2215 | 0.0512 | 0.1554 | 0.1339 | 0.2413 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2130 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5770 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2643 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5980 |
| predicted_H | 0.9450 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2120 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3615 |
| predicted_R | 0.5350 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6630 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5023 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7520 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1470 | 0.2130 | 0.1759 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7900 | 3.5770 | 3.6967 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2430 | 0.2643 | 0.2523 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4970 | 0.5980 | 0.5412 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9200 | 0.9450 | 0.9309 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2000 | 0.2120 | 0.2053 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3580 | 0.3615 | 0.3595 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5210 | 0.5350 | 0.5271 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7200 | 0.6630 | 0.6950 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4620 | 0.5023 | 0.4796 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8960 | 0.7520 | 0.8329 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 648 |
| Season rows before report date | 648 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 163 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 1 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 592518 |
| playerID | 592518 |
| playerName | Manny Machado |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.31 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.328 |
| sl_xba | 0.243 |
| sl_xslg | 0.42 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.189 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.214 | 0.000 | -0.214 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | -0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.010 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.600 | 4.000 | 1.400 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.307 | 0.000 | -0.107 | 0.200 |
| predicted_BB | 0.280 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.301 | 0.000 | -0.301 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.060 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.106 | 0.000 | -0.106 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.176 | 0.000 | -0.176 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.350 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.372 | 0.000 | -0.172 | 0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.462 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.496 | 0.000 | 0.504 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.570 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.600 | 0.000 | -0.600 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.421 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.520 | 0.000 | -0.320 | 0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 0.848 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.832 | 1.000 | 0.168 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 4.0100 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.9900, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.5700 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5700, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2630 -> 0.2822 (boost 0.0192, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0100 -> 3.8394 (deboost -0.1706, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3607 -> 0.3198 (deboost -0.0409, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_RBI: 0.5193 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4807, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2503 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2503, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.026 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4442 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4442, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3473 (boost 0.3473, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5383 (deboost -0.4617, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.5383 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4617, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3473 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3473, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4250 -> 0.4420 (boost 0.0170, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3310 -> 0.3120 (deboost -0.0190, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "664034",
"player_name": "Ty France",
"position": "1B",
"team": "SD",
"steps": [
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"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_AB": 4.01,
"predicted_AVG": 0.263,
"predicted_BB": 0.28,
"predicted_H": 1.06,
"predicted_HR": 0.11,
"predicted_OBP": 0.35,
"predicted_R": 0.462,
"predicted_RBI": 0.57,
"predicted_SLG": 0.421,
"predicted_SO": 0.848
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1829,
"predicted_3B": 0.0128,
"predicted_AB": 3.8394,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2822,
"predicted_BB": 0.2518,
"predicted_H": 1.0821,
"predicted_HBP": 0.195,
"predicted_HR": 0.1061,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3607,
"predicted_R": 0.4616,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5396,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4312,
"predicted_SO": 0.8571
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
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"last_10": 10,
"season": 132
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"predicted_AB": 3.8394,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2755,
"predicted_BB": 0.2503,
"predicted_H": 1.0578,
"predicted_HBP": 0.195,
"predicted_HR": 0.1031,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3198,
"predicted_R": 0.4442,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5193,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4104,
"predicted_SO": 0.8623
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{
"index": 4,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.253,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.427,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.262,
"after": 0.253,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -0.0344,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.331,
"after": 0.312,
"delta": -0.019,
"percent_delta": -0.0574,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.427,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -0.0339,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.331,
"after": 0.312,
"delta": -0.019,
"percent_delta": -0.0574,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.189,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.189,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.01,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.99,
"percent_delta": 0.2469,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.263,
"after": 0.253,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.038,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.28,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.06,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.06,
"percent_delta": -0.0566,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.195,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.195,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.11,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.312,
"delta": -0.038,
"percent_delta": -0.1086,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.462,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.538,
"percent_delta": 1.1645,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.57,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.421,
"after": 0.427,
"delta": 0.006,
"percent_delta": 0.0143,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.848,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.152,
"percent_delta": 0.1792,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.01,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.99,
"percent_delta": 0.2469,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.57,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.189 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.010 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.280 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.060 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.350 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.462 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.570 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.421 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.848 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | -0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.839 | -0.171 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.282 | 0.019 |
| predicted_BB | 0.252 | -0.028 |
| predicted_H | 1.082 | 0.022 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.195 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.106 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.361 | 0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.462 | -0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.540 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.431 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.857 | 0.009 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.839 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.250 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.058 | -0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.195 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.103 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | -0.041 |
| predicted_R | 0.444 | -0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.519 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.410 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 0.862 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.026
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.172 | 0.172 |
| 3B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.347 | 0.347 |
| H | 0.976 | -0.024 |
| HR | 0.156 | 0.156 |
| RBI | 0.538 | -0.462 |
| SO | 0.906 | -0.094 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.172 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.253 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.347 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.024 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.156 |
| OBP | 0.320 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.462 |
| SLG | 0.425 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.094 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.183 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.161 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | -0.023 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.250 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.058 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.103 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.444 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.481 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.138 |
KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.262 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.331 | 0.011 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.442 | 0.017 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.3684 | 0.4286 | 0.4211 | 0.3684 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.0000 | 0.2105 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 0.2895 | 0.3721 | 0.3158 | 0.2895 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.0526 | 0.2632 |
| season | 0.60 | 132 | - | 459.000 | 137.000 | 25.000 | 2.000 | 21.000 | 74.000 | 61.000 | 37.000 | 112.000 | 0.2985 | 0.3642 | 0.4989 | 0.2985 | 0.0457 | 0.1612 | 0.0806 | 0.2440 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1750 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6170 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3073 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2150 |
| predicted_H | 1.1110 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1950 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3747 |
| predicted_R | 0.4610 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4446 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8690 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1890 | 0.1750 | 0.1829 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 | 0.0100 | 0.0128 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.0100 | 3.6170 | 3.8394 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2630 | 0.3073 | 0.2822 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2800 | 0.2150 | 0.2518 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0600 | 1.1110 | 1.0821 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1950 | 0.1950 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1100 | 0.1010 | 0.1061 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3500 | 0.3747 | 0.3607 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4620 | 0.4610 | 0.4616 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5700 | 0.5000 | 0.5396 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4210 | 0.4446 | 0.4312 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 | 0.8690 | 0.8571 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 482 |
| Season rows before report date | 482 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 132 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664034 |
| playerID | 664034 |
| playerName | Ty France |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.373 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.327 |
| sl_xba | 0.248 |
| sl_xslg | 0.421 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.075 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.088 | 0.000 | -0.088 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.675 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.772 | 1.000 | 2.228 | 4.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.259 | 0.000 | -0.059 | 0.200 |
| predicted_BB | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.088 | 0.000 | -0.088 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.220 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.719 | 0.000 | 0.281 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.035 | 0.000 | -0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.232 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.280 | 0.000 | -0.080 | 0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.350 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.561 | 0.000 | -0.561 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.211 | 0.000 | -0.211 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.283 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.329 | 0.000 | -0.129 | 0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 0.750 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.719 | 1.000 | 1.281 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | boosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.6750 -> 5.0000 (boost 2.3250, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.3500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.2200 -> 0.3864 (boost 0.1664, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3001 -> 0.2109 (deboost -0.0892, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_AB: 2.6870 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.3130, better) | predicted_H: 0.3777 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3777, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.136 HR/AB=0.015 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.3436 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3436, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4184 (boost 0.4184, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8018 (deboost -0.1982, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.8018 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1982, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4184 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4184, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3800 -> 0.3940 (boost 0.0140, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2450 -> 0.2380 (deboost -0.0070, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
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"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669720",
"player_name": "Austin Hays",
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"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 0.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 0.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.238,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.293,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.387,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_TB": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.238,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0286,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.293,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0233,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.394,
"after": 0.387,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0178,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.238,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0286,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.075,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.075,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.675,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 2.325,
"percent_delta": 0.8692,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.238,
"delta": 0.038,
"percent_delta": 0.19,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.05,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.05,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.78,
"percent_delta": 3.5455,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.293,
"delta": 0.061,
"percent_delta": 0.2629,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.35,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.283,
"after": 0.387,
"delta": 0.104,
"percent_delta": 0.3675,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.25,
"percent_delta": 1.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.675,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 2.325,
"percent_delta": 0.8692,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.35,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "boosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.075 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.675 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.050 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.232 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.350 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.283 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.750 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.070 | -0.005 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.687 | 0.012 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.215 | 0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.079 | 0.029 |
| predicted_H | 0.386 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | 0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.249 | 0.017 |
| predicted_R | 0.357 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.254 | 0.084 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.300 | 0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 0.754 | 0.004 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.070 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.687 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.141 | -0.075 |
| predicted_BB | 0.079 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.378 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.039 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.165 | -0.084 |
| predicted_R | 0.344 | -0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.245 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.211 | -0.089 |
| predicted_SO | 0.758 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.136 HR/AB=0.015
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.138 | 0.138 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.226 | 0.226 |
| H | 0.802 | -0.198 |
| HR | 0.109 | 0.109 |
| RBI | 0.418 | 0.418 |
| SO | 0.949 | -0.051 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.138 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.236 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.226 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.198 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.109 |
| OBP | 0.290 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.418 |
| SLG | 0.380 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.051 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.070 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.313 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | 0.095 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.079 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.622 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.039 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | 0.125 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.344 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.245 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.380 | 0.169 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.242 |
KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.245 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.300 | 0.010 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.394 | 0.014 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 2.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 11.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.1818 | 0.2500 | 0.1818 | 0.1818 | 0.0000 | 0.1818 | 0.0909 | 0.3636 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 18.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.2222 | 0.2632 | 0.2222 | 0.2222 | 0.0000 | 0.1667 | 0.0556 | 0.2778 |
| season | 0.60 | 40 | - | 107.000 | 28.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 14.000 | 14.000 | 2.000 | 30.000 | 0.2617 | 0.2752 | 0.3738 | 0.2617 | 0.0280 | 0.1308 | 0.0187 | 0.2804 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0630 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 2.7060 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2400 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1260 |
| predicted_H | 0.6500 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0560 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2759 |
| predicted_R | 0.3680 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3880 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3271 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7600 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0750 | 0.0630 | 0.0704 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.6750 | 2.7060 | 2.6870 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2000 | 0.2400 | 0.2155 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.0500 | 0.1260 | 0.0794 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.2200 | 0.6500 | 0.3864 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 | 0.0560 | 0.0401 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2320 | 0.2759 | 0.2490 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3500 | 0.3680 | 0.3570 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1700 | 0.3880 | 0.2543 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2830 | 0.3271 | 0.3001 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7500 | 0.7600 | 0.7539 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 57 |
| Season rows before report date | 57 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 40 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-DH |
| gameID | 20261004_SD@MIL |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 669720 |
| note | Struck out for Sheets in the 6th. |
| playerID | 669720 |
| playerName | Austin Hays |
| pos | DH |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-04 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.304 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.295 |
| sl_xba | 0.278 |
| sl_xslg | 0.383 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 4.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 33.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.126 | 0.000 | -0.126 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.399 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.505 | 3.000 | 0.495 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.265 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.236 | 0.333 | -0.236 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.517 | 0.000 | -0.517 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.827 | 1.000 | -0.827 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 | -0.090 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.364 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.335 | 0.333 | -0.335 | -0.333 |
| predicted_R | 0.456 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.456 | 1.000 | -0.456 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.350 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.423 | 0.000 | -0.423 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.354 | 0.333 | -0.354 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.715 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.721 | 1.000 | 0.279 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.3990 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.6010, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8700 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8700, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.4560 -> 0.5080 (boost 0.0520, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4312 -> 0.3990 (deboost -0.0322, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.7286 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2714, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4948 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4948, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.033 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4889 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4889, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.5036 (boost 0.5036, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.6928 (deboost -0.3072, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 0.6928 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6928, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3450 -> 0.3580 (boost 0.0130, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3580 -> 0.3650 (boost 0.0070, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3350 -> 0.3220 (deboost -0.0130, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
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"player_id": "593428",
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"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.235,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.322,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.365,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.235,
"delta": 0.006,
"percent_delta": 0.0262,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.335,
"after": 0.322,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -0.0388,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.365,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0196,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.365,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0196,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.335,
"after": 0.322,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -0.0388,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.12,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.399,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.601,
"percent_delta": 0.1768,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.265,
"after": 0.235,
"delta": -0.03,
"percent_delta": -0.1132,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.87,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.364,
"after": 0.322,
"delta": -0.042,
"percent_delta": -0.1154,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.456,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.456,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.35,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.424,
"after": 0.365,
"delta": -0.059,
"percent_delta": -0.1392,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.715,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.285,
"percent_delta": 0.3986,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.399,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.601,
"percent_delta": 0.1768,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.87,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.399 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.265 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.364 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.456 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.350 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.715 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.126 | 0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.374 | -0.025 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.270 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.498 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.894 | 0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.115 | 0.015 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.367 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.508 | 0.052 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.358 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.431 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.724 | 0.009 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.126 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.374 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.259 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.495 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.874 | -0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.112 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.354 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.489 | -0.019 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.344 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.399 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 0.729 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.033
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.132 | 0.132 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.504 | 0.504 |
| H | 0.766 | -0.234 |
| HR | 0.093 | 0.093 |
| RBI | 0.359 | 0.359 |
| SO | 0.693 | -0.307 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.132 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.221 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.496 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.234 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.093 |
| OBP | 0.324 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.359 |
| SLG | 0.345 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.693 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.126 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.374 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | -0.038 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.505 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.126 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.112 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | -0.030 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.511 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.344 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.345 | -0.054 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.729 |
KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.229 | 0.008 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.335 | 0.011 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.358 | 0.013 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.3529 | 0.4211 | 0.5882 | 0.3529 | 0.0588 | 0.1177 | 0.1177 | 0.2353 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 30.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 0.3333 | 0.4444 | 0.5667 | 0.3333 | 0.0667 | 0.1000 | 0.2000 | 0.2333 |
| season | 0.60 | 158 | - | 537.000 | 126.000 | 19.000 | 1.000 | 14.000 | 59.000 | 72.000 | 79.000 | 113.000 | 0.2346 | 0.3344 | 0.3520 | 0.2346 | 0.0261 | 0.1099 | 0.1471 | 0.2104 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1340 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2766 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4950 |
| predicted_H | 0.9240 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3706 |
| predicted_R | 0.5750 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3680 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4406 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7360 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1200 | 0.1340 | 0.1261 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3990 | 3.3410 | 3.3737 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2650 | 0.2766 | 0.2701 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5000 | 0.4950 | 0.4978 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8700 | 0.9240 | 0.8936 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0160 | 0.0160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1000 | 0.1350 | 0.1153 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3640 | 0.3706 | 0.3669 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4560 | 0.5750 | 0.5080 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3500 | 0.3680 | 0.3579 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4240 | 0.4406 | 0.4312 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7150 | 0.7360 | 0.7242 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 588 |
| Season rows before report date | 588 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 158 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 593428 |
| playerID | 593428 |
| playerName | Xander Bogaerts |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.306 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.325 |
| sl_xba | 0.248 |
| sl_xslg | 0.376 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 6.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.164 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.186 | 0.000 | 0.814 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.440 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.284 | 2.000 | 0.716 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.252 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.263 | 0.500 | -0.013 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.425 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.432 | 1.000 | -0.432 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.864 | 1.000 | 0.136 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 | -0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.358 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.358 | 0.667 | -0.108 | -0.417 |
| predicted_R | 0.356 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.356 | 1.000 | -0.356 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.475 | 0.000 | 0.525 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.368 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.428 | 0.500 | 0.072 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.726 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.797 | 0.000 | -0.797 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1640 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8360, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7260 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7260, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AB: 3.4400 -> 3.3435 (deboost -0.0965, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3570 -> 0.3361 (deboost -0.0209, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.3435 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.6565, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4366 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4366, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.027 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3770 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3770, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4704 (boost 0.4704, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.8029 (deboost -0.1971, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | predicted_BB: 0.4704 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5296, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4333 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4333, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3830 -> 0.3980 (boost 0.0150, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3400 -> 0.2930 (deboost -0.0470, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669134",
"player_name": "Luis Campusano",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.218,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.293,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.367,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.243,
"after": 0.218,
"delta": -0.025,
"percent_delta": -0.1029,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.293,
"delta": -0.047,
"percent_delta": -0.1382,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.398,
"after": 0.367,
"delta": -0.031,
"percent_delta": -0.0779,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.293,
"delta": -0.047,
"percent_delta": -0.1382,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.164,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.836,
"percent_delta": 5.0976,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.44,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.56,
"percent_delta": 0.1628,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.252,
"after": 0.218,
"delta": -0.034,
"percent_delta": -0.1349,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.425,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.13,
"percent_delta": 0.1494,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.293,
"delta": -0.065,
"percent_delta": -0.1816,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.356,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.356,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.57,
"percent_delta": 1.3256,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.726,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.726,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.164,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.836,
"percent_delta": 5.0976,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.726,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.726,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.164 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.440 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.252 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.425 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.358 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.356 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.368 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.726 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.141 | -0.023 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.344 | -0.096 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.255 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.439 | 0.014 |
| predicted_H | 0.853 | -0.017 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.096 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.357 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.392 | 0.036 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.372 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.681 | -0.044 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.141 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.344 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.437 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | -0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.093 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | -0.021 |
| predicted_R | 0.377 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.405 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.375 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.686 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.027
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.153 | 0.153 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.470 | 0.470 |
| H | 0.834 | -0.166 |
| HR | 0.118 | 0.118 |
| RBI | 0.433 | 0.433 |
| SO | 0.803 | -0.197 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.153 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.234 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.530 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.118 |
| OBP | 0.329 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.433 |
| SLG | 0.383 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.197 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.141 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.656 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | -0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.563 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.093 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.329 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.377 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.405 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.383 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.314 |
KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.243 | 0.009 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.340 | 0.011 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.398 | 0.015 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.2667 | 0.3889 | 0.2667 | 0.2667 | 0.0000 | 0.1333 | 0.2000 | 0.0667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 0.2286 | 0.3250 | 0.3143 | 0.2286 | 0.0286 | 0.0857 | 0.1429 | 0.1714 |
| season | 0.60 | 73 | - | 224.000 | 60.000 | 12.000 | 0.000 | 8.000 | 31.000 | 26.000 | 31.000 | 53.000 | 0.2679 | 0.3643 | 0.4286 | 0.2679 | 0.0357 | 0.1384 | 0.1384 | 0.2366 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1080 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2100 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2586 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4590 |
| predicted_H | 0.8300 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0260 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3555 |
| predicted_R | 0.4410 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4070 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3769 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6200 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1640 | 0.1080 | 0.1405 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4400 | 3.2100 | 3.3435 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2520 | 0.2586 | 0.2548 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4250 | 0.4590 | 0.4393 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8700 | 0.8300 | 0.8532 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0260 | 0.0260 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1000 | 0.0900 | 0.0958 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3580 | 0.3555 | 0.3570 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3560 | 0.4410 | 0.3917 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4300 | 0.4070 | 0.4204 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3680 | 0.3769 | 0.3717 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7260 | 0.6200 | 0.6815 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 236 |
| Season rows before report date | 236 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 73 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20261004_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669134 |
| playerID | 669134 |
| playerName | Luis Campusano |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-04 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.353 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.327 |
| sl_xba | 0.239 |
| sl_xslg | 0.391 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.115 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.123 | 0.000 | -0.123 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | -0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.469 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.677 | 2.000 | 0.323 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.232 | 1.000 | -0.232 | -1.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.336 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.368 | 0.000 | -0.368 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.750 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.854 | 2.000 | -0.854 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.059 | 1.000 | -0.059 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.311 | 1.000 | -0.311 | -1.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.416 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.457 | 1.000 | -0.457 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.358 | 1.000 | -0.358 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.081 | 0.000 | -0.081 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.497 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.321 | 2.500 | -0.321 | -2.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.885 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.921 | 0.000 | 1.079 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 11 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8850 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1150, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4970 -> 0.4307 (deboost -0.0663, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4307 -> 0.3540 (deboost -0.0767, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_H: 0.7200 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2800, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4466 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4466, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3663 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3663, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3831 (boost 0.3831, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7602 (deboost -0.2398, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.8833 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1167, worse) | predicted_H: 0.7602 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7602, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3390 -> 0.3520 (boost 0.0130, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2350 -> 0.2120 (deboost -0.0230, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.284,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.329,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.235,
"after": 0.212,
"delta": -0.023,
"percent_delta": -0.0979,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.284,
"delta": -0.022,
"percent_delta": -0.0719,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.329,
"delta": -0.023,
"percent_delta": -0.0653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.235,
"after": 0.212,
"delta": -0.023,
"percent_delta": -0.0979,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.115,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.115,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.469,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.531,
"percent_delta": 0.1531,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.212,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -0.0493,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.336,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.336,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.75,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.122,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.122,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.315,
"after": 0.284,
"delta": -0.031,
"percent_delta": -0.0984,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.416,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.416,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.47,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.47,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.497,
"after": 0.329,
"delta": -0.168,
"percent_delta": -0.338,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.885,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.115,
"percent_delta": 1.2599,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 11,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.885,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.115,
"percent_delta": 1.2599,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.75,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.115 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.469 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.336 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.750 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.416 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.497 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.885 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.105 | -0.010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | -0.059 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.293 | -0.043 |
| predicted_H | 0.737 | -0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.122 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.126 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.381 | -0.035 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.464 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.431 | -0.066 |
| predicted_SO | 0.862 | -0.023 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.105 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.211 | -0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.291 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.720 | -0.017 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.122 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.122 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.273 | -0.032 |
| predicted_R | 0.366 | -0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.447 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | -0.077 |
| predicted_SO | 0.867 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.117 | 0.117 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.302 | 0.302 |
| H | 0.760 | -0.240 |
| HR | 0.079 | 0.079 |
| RBI | 0.383 | 0.383 |
| SO | 0.883 | -0.117 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.117 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.227 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.302 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.760 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.079 |
| OBP | 0.296 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.383 |
| SLG | 0.339 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.117 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.105 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.016 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.291 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.720 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.122 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | 0.023 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.366 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.447 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.339 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.133 |
KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.235 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.306 | 0.010 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.352 | 0.013 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2500 | 0.4000 | 0.2000 | 0.0667 | 0.1333 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 0.1935 | 0.2857 | 0.3226 | 0.1935 | 0.0323 | 0.2258 | 0.0645 | 0.2903 |
| season | 0.60 | 113 | - | 392.000 | 88.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 43.000 | 47.000 | 38.000 | 100.000 | 0.2245 | 0.3059 | 0.3240 | 0.2245 | 0.0204 | 0.1097 | 0.0969 | 0.2551 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0920 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3330 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2156 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2370 |
| predicted_H | 0.7190 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1220 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1070 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2916 |
| predicted_R | 0.3340 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4560 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3433 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1150 | 0.0920 | 0.1051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4690 | 3.3330 | 3.4103 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2230 | 0.2156 | 0.2198 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3360 | 0.2370 | 0.2933 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7500 | 0.7190 | 0.7366 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1220 | 0.1220 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.1070 | 0.1258 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3150 | 0.2916 | 0.3049 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4160 | 0.3340 | 0.3806 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4700 | 0.4560 | 0.4640 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4970 | 0.3433 | 0.4307 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8850 | 0.8310 | 0.8617 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 405 |
| Season rows before report date | 405 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 113 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 1.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 1 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 630105 |
| playerID | 630105 |
| playerName | Jake Cronenworth |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.287 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.275 |
| sl_xba | 0.213 |
| sl_xslg | 0.308 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.078 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.094 | 0.000 | -0.094 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.039 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.044 | 0.000 | -0.044 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.118 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.462 | 3.000 | -0.462 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.294 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.332 | 0.333 | -0.332 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.353 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.456 | 0.000 | 0.544 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.062 | 0.000 | -0.062 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.780 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 1.150 | 1.000 | -1.150 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.037 | 0.000 | -0.037 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.344 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.414 | 0.333 | -0.164 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.529 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_R | 0.625 | 1.000 | 1.375 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.412 | 0.000 | -0.412 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.370 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.417 | 0.333 | -0.417 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.922 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.044 | 0.000 | -1.044 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.5290 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4710, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.9220 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9220, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AB: 3.1180 -> 3.0364 (deboost -0.0816, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2922 -> 0.2596 (deboost -0.0326, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.7884 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2116, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2965 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2965, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.010 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4585 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4585, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3639 (boost 0.3639, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7760 (deboost -0.2240, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.7760 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2240, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3639 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3639, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3670 -> 0.3810 (boost 0.0140, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3810 -> 0.3530 (deboost -0.0280, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669392",
"player_name": "Samad Taylor",
"position": "LF",
"team": "SD",
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{
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"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.381,
"after": 0.353,
"delta": -0.028,
"percent_delta": -0.0735,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.078,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.078,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.118,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.118,
"percent_delta": -0.0378,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.227,
"delta": -0.067,
"percent_delta": -0.2279,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.353,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.647,
"percent_delta": 1.8329,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.78,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.78,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.344,
"after": 0.315,
"delta": -0.029,
"percent_delta": -0.0843,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.529,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.471,
"percent_delta": 2.7807,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.22,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.353,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -0.0459,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.922,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.922,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.529,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.471,
"percent_delta": 2.7807,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.922,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.922,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.078 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.039 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.118 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.294 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.353 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.780 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.344 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.529 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.370 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.922 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.078 | -0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.032 | -0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 3.036 | -0.082 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.292 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.298 | -0.055 |
| predicted_H | 0.806 | 0.026 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.031 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.342 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.476 | -0.053 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.229 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.368 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.883 | -0.039 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.078 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.032 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.036 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | -0.033 |
| predicted_BB | 0.296 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.788 | -0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | -0.017 |
| predicted_R | 0.459 | -0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.221 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 0.889 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.010
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.124 | 0.124 |
| 3B | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| BB | 0.364 | 0.364 |
| H | 0.776 | -0.224 |
| HR | 0.077 | 0.077 |
| RBI | 0.355 | 0.355 |
| SO | 0.870 | -0.130 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.124 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.245 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.364 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.224 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.077 |
| OBP | 0.328 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.355 |
| SLG | 0.367 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.130 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.078 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.032 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.036 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | -0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.296 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.212 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.030 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.328 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.459 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.221 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.367 | 0.031 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.111 |
KPI club run ratio x1.078 applied to runs and RBI, x1.038 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.254 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.339 | 0.011 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.381 | 0.014 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 10.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.3000 | 0.3000 | 0.3000 | 0.3000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.3000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 25.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.2400 | 0.2692 | 0.2800 | 0.2400 | 0.0000 | 0.0400 | 0.0400 | 0.2800 |
| season | 0.60 | 51 | - | 159.000 | 50.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 18.000 | 27.000 | 18.000 | 47.000 | 0.3145 | 0.3855 | 0.4025 | 0.3145 | 0.0126 | 0.1132 | 0.1132 | 0.2956 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0770 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0210 |
| predicted_AB | 2.9180 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2897 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2190 |
| predicted_H | 0.8450 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0130 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0330 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3394 |
| predicted_R | 0.4000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2430 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3646 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8270 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0780 | 0.0770 | 0.0776 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0390 | 0.0210 | 0.0317 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1180 | 2.9180 | 3.0364 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2940 | 0.2897 | 0.2922 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3530 | 0.2190 | 0.2983 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7800 | 0.8450 | 0.8065 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0130 | 0.0130 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 | 0.0330 | 0.0312 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3440 | 0.3394 | 0.3421 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5290 | 0.4000 | 0.4764 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2200 | 0.2430 | 0.2294 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3700 | 0.3646 | 0.3678 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9220 | 0.8270 | 0.8832 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 160 |
| Season rows before report date | 160 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 51 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 2 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669392 |
| playerID | 669392 |
| playerName | Samad Taylor |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.356 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.309 |
| sl_xba | 0.256 |
| sl_xslg | 0.328 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 25.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 9.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.781 | 1.000 | 1.219 | 2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.469 | 3.000 | 0.531 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_H | 4.688 | 5.000 | -0.688 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 3.200 | 3.200 | 3.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.634 | 3.200 | -1.434 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_SO | 4.094 | 3.000 | -0.094 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 5 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 3.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_ER: 6.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -3.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score |
| 8 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 3.0000, worse) | predicted_ER: 6.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -3.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 9 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "621111",
"player_name": "Walker Buehler",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "SD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 6.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.6667,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 3.2,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.3333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 3.2,
"delta": -1.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.3143,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.2,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 3.2,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.3333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 3.2,
"delta": -1.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.3143,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.2,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 4.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 3.000 | - |
| BF | 18.000 | - |
| ER | 3.000 | - |
| H | 4.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 3.200 | - |
| Pitches | 75.000 | - |
| R | 3.000 | - |
| SO | 4.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 22.100 | 11.000 | 21.000 | 8.000 | 20.000 | 5.000 | 4.4328 | 1.2985 | 0.4925 | 0.9403 | 0.3582 | 0.8955 | 0.2239 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 49.100 | 19.000 | 43.000 | 13.000 | 39.000 | 8.000 | 3.4662 | 1.1351 | 0.3851 | 0.8716 | 0.2635 | 0.7905 | 0.1622 |
| season | 0.20 | 32 | 153.200 | 79.000 | 150.000 | 57.000 | 131.000 | 22.000 | 4.6269 | 1.3471 | 0.5141 | 0.9761 | 0.3709 | 0.8525 | 0.1432 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.5520 |
| predicted_ER | 2.1640 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.1997 |
| predicted_H | 4.3220 |
| predicted_HR | 0.8390 |
| predicted_IP | 4.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.9960 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2665 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 1.5520 | 0.9202 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 6.0000 | 2.1640 | 3.7256 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.1997 | 4.1997 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 6.0000 | 4.3220 | 5.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.8390 | 0.4975 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 4.2000 | 4.2000 | 4.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 5.0000 | 3.9960 | 4.4047 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2665 | 1.2665 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 32 |
| Season rows before report date | 32 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 32 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 3.2 |
| H | 4 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 3 |
| SO | 4 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 18 |
| Pitches | 75 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 18 |
| Pitching_ER | 3 |
| Pitching_ERA | 4.63 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 6 |
| Pitching_H | 5 |
| Pitching_HBP | 1 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 3.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 73 |
| Pitching_R | 4 |
| Pitching_SO | 3 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 38 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260926_ARI@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 621111 |
| playerID | 621111 |
| playerName | Walker Buehler |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.329 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.317 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.721987566 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.111974602 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.306 | 0.000 | -0.306 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.264 | 1.000 | -0.264 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.861 | 3.000 | -0.861 | -3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.951 | 1.100 | 0.149 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.222 | 3.000 | -0.222 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 3 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "699134",
"player_name": "Bradgley Rodriguez",
"position": "Long Reliever",
"team": "SD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 5.000 | - |
| ER | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 1.100 | - |
| Pitches | 19.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 1.2857 | 1.0000 | 0.1429 | 0.5714 | 0.4286 | 1.2857 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 13.200 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 4.000 | 16.000 | 1.000 | 1.3171 | 0.9512 | 0.1463 | 0.6585 | 0.2927 | 1.1707 | 0.0732 |
| season | 0.20 | 70 | 79.000 | 15.000 | 56.000 | 21.000 | 88.000 | 4.000 | 1.7089 | 0.9747 | 0.1899 | 0.7089 | 0.2658 | 1.1139 | 0.0506 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4560 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3050 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.1422 |
| predicted_H | 0.9140 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.4700 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0688 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4560 | 0.2512 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3050 | 0.1680 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.1422 | 2.1422 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.9140 | 0.9526 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0800 | 0.0441 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 1.4700 | 1.7080 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0688 | 1.0688 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 72 |
| Season rows before report date | 72 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 70 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 19 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 7 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.80 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 21 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 3 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 16 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 699134 |
| playerID | 699134 |
| playerName | Bradgley Rodriguez |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.266 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.239 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 30.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.26349102 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.978718367 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.293 | 1.000 | -0.293 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.244 | 0.000 | -0.244 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.756 | 1.000 | -0.756 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.832 | 0.100 | 0.168 | 0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.537 | 0.000 | 0.463 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "592094",
"player_name": "Jason Adam",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "SD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 3.000 | - |
| ER | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 1.000 | - |
| Pitches | 14.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.0769 | 1.1538 | 0.2308 | 0.2308 | 0.9231 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.100 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 3.8571 | 1.0714 | 0.4286 | 0.6429 | 0.4286 | 0.4286 | 0.1071 |
| season | 0.20 | 41 | 36.200 | 10.000 | 31.000 | 12.000 | 22.000 | 5.000 | 2.4545 | 1.1727 | 0.2727 | 0.8455 | 0.3273 | 0.6000 | 0.1364 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.5310 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3900 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.5109 |
| predicted_H | 0.6920 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0980 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5340 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2230 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.5310 | 0.7740 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3900 | 0.1880 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.5109 | 3.5109 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.6920 | 0.3335 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0980 | 0.0472 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.5340 | 0.7754 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2230 | 1.2230 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 41 |
| Season rows before report date | 41 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 41 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 14 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 1 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 13 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 8 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261006_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 592094 |
| playerID | 592094 |
| playerName | Jason Adam |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.307 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.3 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 26.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.065990566 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.431740849 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.359 | 0.000 | -0.359 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.359 | 1.000 | 1.641 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_H | 0.885 | 3.000 | 3.115 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.028 | 2.000 | 2.972 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.397 | 2.000 | 1.603 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 5 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 3.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 3.0000, worse) | - | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "670970",
"player_name": "Adrian Morejon",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "SD",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.0,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": 3.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 2.6667,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": 3.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": 3.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 2.6667,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": 3.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 16.000 | - |
| ER | 2.000 | - |
| H | 4.000 | - |
| HR | 1.000 | - |
| IP | 4.000 | - |
| Pitches | 70.000 | - |
| R | 3.000 | - |
| SO | 3.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 7.100 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 2.4545 | 1.0909 | 0.2727 | 0.8182 | 0.2727 | 0.8182 | 0.1364 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 11.100 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 2.3824 | 1.0588 | 0.2647 | 0.7059 | 0.3529 | 1.1471 | 0.0882 |
| season | 0.20 | 78 | 90.000 | 28.000 | 69.000 | 28.000 | 109.000 | 5.000 | 2.8000 | 1.0778 | 0.3111 | 0.7667 | 0.3111 | 1.2111 | 0.0556 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3850 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3900 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.9491 |
| predicted_H | 0.9680 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1340 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1830 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1382 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3850 | 0.2158 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3900 | 0.2186 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.9491 | 2.9491 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.9680 | 0.9821 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1340 | 0.0751 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.1830 | 1.1026 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1382 | 1.1382 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 78 |
| Season rows before report date | 78 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 78 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 4.0 |
| H | 4 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 16 |
| Pitches | 70 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 9 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.25 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 2.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 31 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 20 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670970 |
| playerID | 670970 |
| playerName | Adrian Morejon |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.244 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.237 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 34.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.331806132 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.323366588 |
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | TB 3 - 4 NYY | NYY | 0.544 | enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target | True |
| Simulation draw | TB 3 - 4 NYY | NYY | - | organic_simulation_realized_target | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.4838; empirical=0.5674; weight=0.4500; final=0.5214 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=14; abs=14; home delta=0.0808; away delta=-0.0808 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=2.2500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=0.2853; recent edge=-0.0280; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 6.4000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5440 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_simulation_realized_target |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 8 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 3.960 | 5.569 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 4 | 6 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 3 | 4 | 0.5440 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| 4 | kpi_layer | 3 | 4 | - | Savant KPI blend applied to the model target |
| 5 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 3 | 4 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 6 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 3 | 4 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 7 | capped_target | 3 | 4 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 8 | simulation_result | 3 | 4 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.7122387300296822,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.4275618374558304,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5075618374558304,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.2846768925738518,
"confidence": 0.9,
"factors": {
"environmental": 1.0710000000000002,
"pitcher_form": 1.4520000000000002,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.0712000000000002,
"combined": 1.6658145504000006
},
"prediction": "low_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 7,
"score_scale_mode": "control",
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 6.4,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 6.4,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 7,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
}{
"method": "monotone_reliability_shrinkage",
"policy": "shrink_toward_even_score_floor_v3",
"sample_size": 393,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 393,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 631,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 1124,
"global_sample_size": 1135,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5674,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5645,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.6185,
"raw_pick_probability_unclamped": 0.6185,
"score_probability_conflict": false,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.5073,
"margin_implied_pick_probability": 0.5073,
"score_blend_weight": 0.45,
"blended_raw_pick_probability": 0.5684,
"score_implied_floor_pick_probability": 0.5071,
"max_published_pick_probability": 0.9,
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.618462,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.381538,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5665,
"predicted_side": "home",
"reliability": 0.956204,
"shrink_floor": 0.35,
"empirical_penalty": 1.0,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.971533
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.483821,
"sample_size": 393,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5674,
"empirical_weight": 0.45,
"empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
"empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
"blended_confidence": 0.521431,
"published_confidence": 0.544016,
"published_after_governors": true,
"governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": 14.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
"home_average_margin": 2.8,
"home_run_delta": 0.0808,
"away_run_delta": -0.0808,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 2.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 7.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -5.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 2.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 8.0
}
],
"adaptive_parameters": {
"h2h.history_limit": 5,
"h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
"h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
"h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
}
}{
"applied": false,
"home": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.577639751552795,
"runs_scored": 739,
"runs_allowed": 601,
"run_differential": 138,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571428571428571,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 162,
"wins": 98,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.6049382716049383,
"runs_scored": 736,
"runs_allowed": 650,
"run_differential": 86,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.5308641975308642,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3263,
"win_pct_edge": -0.0273,
"quality_edge": 0.1757,
"season_quality_edge": 0.2853,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": 0.2853,
"recent_quality_edge": -0.028,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "conflict",
"blended_quality_edge": 0.1757
},
"margin_adjustment": 0.0,
"reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.024571149423370492
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.024254044154911086
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.023920224256027942
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.023611519563234765
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 2,
"probability": 0.02206000976023823
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.07360930233901197,
"1": 0.10754056582013177,
"2": 0.13786423793583563,
"3": 0.15508529613698727,
"4": 0.15308382833349696,
"5": 0.13259516778739763,
"6": 0.10077800843404823,
"7": 0.06721149223989481,
"8": 0.039333355352088026,
"9": 0.020198454734309753,
"10": 0.00910154219490888,
"11": 0.003598748691889274
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.0765518225234127,
"1": 0.11161827464051573,
"2": 0.14224436687248906,
"3": 0.15843635751042914,
"4": 0.15423915001522223,
"5": 0.13123642713898623,
"6": 0.0975964845844931,
"7": 0.06343573149970959,
"8": 0.036037423291023184,
"9": 0.017893426383670735,
"10": 0.007765211553087446,
"11": 0.002945323986960967
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 2.25,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
"applied": true,
"confidence_cap": 0.54,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [
"predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs",
"a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result",
"a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs"
],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "NYY",
"opponent_team": "TB",
"h2h_net_margin": 4,
"opponent_breakout": false,
"opponent_blowout_win": true,
"split_recent_h2h": true,
"recent_h2h": [
{
"date": "2026-09-24",
"predicted_team_runs": 6,
"opponent_runs": 4,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 2,
"winner": "NYY"
},
{
"date": "2026-09-23",
"predicted_team_runs": 9,
"opponent_runs": 2,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 7,
"winner": "NYY"
},
{
"date": "2026-09-22",
"predicted_team_runs": 1,
"opponent_runs": 6,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -5,
"winner": "TB"
}
],
"prediction_memory": {
"available": true,
"reason": "verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available",
"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
"verified_outcome_count": 8,
"consecutive_same_pick_count": 1,
"same_pick_actual_loss_count": 3,
"same_pick_blowout_loss_count": 1,
"prior_predictions": [
{
"date": "20261005",
"away": "NYY",
"home": "TB",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "NYY",
"actual_winner": "TB",
"actual_margin": 3,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5396190000000001,
"artifact": "20261005_NYY@TB.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20261003",
"away": "NYY",
"home": "TB",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "TB",
"actual_winner": "TB",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.518365,
"artifact": "20261003_NYY@TB.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260924",
"away": "TB",
"home": "NYY",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "NYY",
"actual_winner": "NYY",
"actual_margin": 2,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.531136,
"artifact": "20260924_TB@NYY.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260923",
"away": "TB",
"home": "NYY",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "TB",
"actual_winner": "NYY",
"actual_margin": 7,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.505259,
"artifact": "20260923_TB@NYY.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260922",
"away": "TB",
"home": "NYY",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "NYY",
"actual_winner": "NYY",
"actual_margin": 2,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.534918,
"artifact": "20260922_TB@NYY.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "NYY",
"guardrail_opponent_team": "TB",
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "NYY",
"output_opponent_team": "TB",
"simulation_score_winner": "NYY",
"final_score_winner": "NYY",
"pre_simulation_winner": "NYY",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false
},
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"flip_authority": "caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only"
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"policy": "recency_uncertainty_shrinkage_v2",
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.577639751552795,
"runs_scored": 739,
"runs_allowed": 601,
"run_differential": 138,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571428571428571,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 162,
"wins": 98,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.6049382716049383,
"runs_scored": 736,
"runs_allowed": 650,
"run_differential": 86,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.5308641975308642,
"available": true
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_margin": 0.1,
"final_margin": 0.1,
"margin_cap": 1.5,
"season_quality_edge": 0.1757,
"reason": "raw target margin within supported range"
}{
"applied": true,
"policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
"raw_confidence": 0.521431,
"final_confidence": 0.5665,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5665,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.971533,
"hard_maximum": 0.9,
"confidence_floor": 0.505,
"score_gap": 0.1,
"calibration_sample_size": 393,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5674,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5645,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 0.1757,
"reasons": [
"confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
],
"score_coherence": {
"policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"published_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
},
"margin": 1,
"probability_before": 0.566481,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.572388,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.971533,
"side_flipped": false,
"applied": false,
"magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
"probability_after": 0.566481,
"aligned_pick_probability": 0.566481
},
"starter_experience": {
"applied": false,
"min_starter_games": 21,
"shrink_factor": 1.0
}
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0142,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.182,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "NYY",
"model_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 3,
"published_winner": "NYY",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
"draw_majority_team": "NYY",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.1757,
"winner": "NYY",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"confidence": 0.54401626125,
"home_win_probability": 0.54401626125,
"away_win_probability": 0.45598373875,
"predicted_score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY",
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.566481,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.433519,
"confidence_shrinkage": {
"policy": "starter_quality_shrinkage_v3",
"staged_confidence": 0.566481,
"discount_factor": 0.7225,
"published_confidence": 0.544016,
"guardrail_confidence_cap": 0.54,
"guardrail_cap_enforced": false,
"guardrail_soft_ceiling_applied": true,
"confidence_before_ceiling": 0.548033,
"applied_discounts": [
{
"reason": "projected_margin_is_one_run",
"factor": 0.85
},
{
"reason": "matchup_recency_guardrail",
"factor": 0.85
}
]
},
"score_probability_reconciliation": {
"policy": "published_probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"incoming_home_win_probability": 0.641479,
"incoming_favoured_side": "home",
"score_winner_side": "home",
"published_home_win_probability": 0.544016,
"probability_side_reverted_by_score": false,
"note": "The probability and the projected score agree on the winner."
},
"confidence_note": "Probability shrunk toward even by starter-quality and guardrail discounts; no per-game clamp is applied. Discounts: projected_margin_is_one_run x0.85, matchup_recency_guardrail x0.85.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"predicted_score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY",
"confidence": 0.54401626125,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0142,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.182,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "NYY",
"model_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 3,
"published_winner": "NYY",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
"draw_majority_team": "NYY",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.1757,
"winner": "NYY",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TB | True | 1.0131 | 1.0131 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home NYY | True | 1.0359 | 1.0359 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | Yandy Díaz | - | 1.0626 | 0.8349 | neutral | 0.3460 | 0.2810 | 0.4390 | 7.10 | 48.10 | 90.90 | 6 | 14.80 | 14.30 | 8.20 | -0.1143 |
| 1B | Jonathan Aranda | - | 1.0632 | 0.8421 | neutral | 0.3430 | 0.2540 | 0.4380 | 9.90 | 46 | 91.10 | 14.40 | 22.50 | 24.40 | 10.30 | -0.1429 |
| 3B | Junior Caminero | - | 1.0942 | 1.2566 | neutral | 0.3640 | 0.2730 | 0.4990 | 13.10 | 49.70 | 92.70 | 10.40 | 24.10 | 18.40 | 11.30 | -0.3143 |
| LF | Victor Mesa Jr. | - | 1.0395 | 0.5271 | neutral | 0.3290 | 0.2490 | 0.4390 | 10.80 | 42.20 | 89.40 | 21 | 25.50 | 20.20 | 8.80 | -0.7429 |
| RF | Ryan Vilade | - | 1.0338 | 0.4503 | neutral | 0.3270 | 0.2520 | 0.4210 | 7.10 | 39.90 | 89.20 | 17 | 23.60 | 23.40 | 9.40 | 0 |
| C | Liam Hicks | - | 0.9913 | -0.1157 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3190 | 0.2610 | 0.3580 | 3.70 | 27.10 | 84.60 | 14.50 | 11.40 | 9.90 | 10.10 | -0.9429 |
| CF | Jonny DeLuca | - | 0.9339 | -0.8814 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2610 | 0.2320 | 0.3250 | 3.60 | 30.20 | 85.80 | 13.90 | 24.90 | 21.10 | 4.60 | -1.6000 |
| 2B | Richie Palacios | - | 0.9867 | -0.1772 | neutral | 0.3060 | 0.2430 | 0.3340 | 4 | 28.80 | 86.20 | 13.40 | 20.70 | 17 | 11.50 | -0.2857 |
| SS | Taylor Walls | - | 0.9131 | -1.1589 | neutral | 0.2510 | 0.1900 | 0.2610 | 2.20 | 21.90 | 85.60 | 19.40 | 22 | 24.20 | 10.40 | -0.7714 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | Trent Grisham | - | 1.0646 | 0.8608 | neutral | 0.3370 | 0.2450 | 0.4290 | 9.60 | 45.30 | 90.60 | 17.50 | 18.20 | 18.40 | 12.60 | 0.7429 |
| DH | Ben Rice | - | 1.1109 | 1.4788 | neutral | 0.3780 | 0.2670 | 0.5110 | 14.30 | 48.60 | 91.90 | 14.50 | 25.40 | 24.30 | 12.70 | -0.1714 |
| 1B | Luis García Jr. | - | 1.0715 | 0.9531 | neutral | 0.3410 | 0.2760 | 0.4860 | 12.20 | 46.10 | 91.40 | 11.50 | 20.80 | 17.90 | 4.60 | -0.4000 |
| LF | Cody Bellinger | - | 1.0450 | 0.6002 | neutral | 0.3350 | 0.2710 | 0.4110 | 6.60 | 37.80 | 89.20 | 17.60 | 20 | 15.80 | 10.50 | -0.0286 |
| SS | George Lombard Jr. | - | 1.0001 | 0.0012 | neutral | 0.2980 | 0.2400 | 0.3880 | 8.20 | 35.10 | 87.10 | 8.50 | 25.60 | 26.50 | 6 | -0.1429 |
| C | Austin Wells | - | 1.0129 | 0.1724 | neutral | 0.3020 | 0.2110 | 0.3630 | 7.70 | 42.70 | 89.30 | 20.50 | 27.90 | 26.50 | 12.40 | 0.6000 |
| 2B | Anthony Volpe | - | 0.9854 | -0.1947 | neutral | 0.2910 | 0.2320 | 0.3340 | 4.90 | 37 | 87.90 | 12.60 | 25.20 | 22.80 | 10.20 | -0.1714 |
| RF | Spencer Jones | - | 1.0783 | 1.0438 | neutral | 0.3280 | 0.2380 | 0.4550 | 15.90 | 55.10 | 94.10 | 20.60 | 38.70 | 36.30 | 8.70 | 0.1429 |
| 3B | José Caballero | - | 0.9542 | -0.6102 | neutral | 0.2780 | 0.2270 | 0.3330 | 4.20 | 25.60 | 83.80 | 13.90 | 27.90 | 24.30 | 6.40 | -0.3429 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0359,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0359,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "663757",
"player_name": "Trent Grisham",
"offense_factor": 1.0646,
"quality_score": 0.8608,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "663757",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 477.0,
"k_percent": 18.4,
"bb_percent": 12.6,
"woba": 0.311,
"xwoba": 0.337,
"xba": 0.245,
"xslg": 0.429,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 45.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.5,
"whiff_percent": 18.2,
"swing_percent": 39.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.88,
"regression_edge": 0.7429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0857,
"xba_edge": 0.2571,
"xslg_edge": 0.9429,
"barrel_edge": 0.6667,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.1,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.88,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.4,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "700250",
"player_name": "Ben Rice",
"offense_factor": 1.1109,
"quality_score": 1.4788,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "700250",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 611.0,
"k_percent": 24.3,
"bb_percent": 12.7,
"woba": 0.384,
"xwoba": 0.378,
"xba": 0.267,
"xslg": 0.511,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 14.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 48.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.5,
"whiff_percent": 25.4,
"swing_percent": 43.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.7474,
"regression_edge": -0.1714,
"xwoba_edge": 2.2571,
"xba_edge": 0.8857,
"xslg_edge": 2.1143,
"barrel_edge": 1.7111,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.5714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.4,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.85,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "671277",
"player_name": "Luis García Jr.",
"offense_factor": 1.0715,
"quality_score": 0.9531,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "671277",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 509.0,
"k_percent": 17.9,
"bb_percent": 4.6,
"woba": 0.355,
"xwoba": 0.341,
"xba": 0.276,
"xslg": 0.486,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 46.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.5,
"whiff_percent": 20.8,
"swing_percent": 52.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.1734,
"regression_edge": -0.4,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2,
"xba_edge": 1.1429,
"xslg_edge": 1.7571,
"barrel_edge": 1.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.2143,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.05,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "641355",
"player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
"offense_factor": 1.045,
"quality_score": 0.6002,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "641355",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 521.0,
"k_percent": 15.8,
"bb_percent": 10.5,
"woba": 0.336,
"xwoba": 0.335,
"xba": 0.271,
"xslg": 0.411,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.6,
"whiff_percent": 20.0,
"swing_percent": 47.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.7026,
"regression_edge": -0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0286,
"xba_edge": 1.0,
"xslg_edge": 0.6857,
"barrel_edge": 0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.32,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.8167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "806146",
"player_name": "George Lombard Jr.",
"offense_factor": 1.0001,
"quality_score": 0.0012,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "806146",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 127.0,
"k_percent": 26.5,
"bb_percent": 6.0,
"woba": 0.303,
"xwoba": 0.298,
"xba": 0.24,
"xslg": 0.388,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 8.5,
"whiff_percent": 25.6,
"swing_percent": 46.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0257,
"regression_edge": -0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0286,
"xba_edge": 0.1143,
"xslg_edge": 0.3571,
"barrel_edge": 0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.3571,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.52,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "669224",
"player_name": "Austin Wells",
"offense_factor": 1.0129,
"quality_score": 0.1724,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669224",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 358.0,
"k_percent": 26.5,
"bb_percent": 12.4,
"woba": 0.281,
"xwoba": 0.302,
"xba": 0.211,
"xslg": 0.363,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 20.5,
"whiff_percent": 27.9,
"swing_percent": 46.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.1028,
"regression_edge": 0.6,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
"xba_edge": -0.7143,
"xslg_edge": 0.0,
"barrel_edge": 0.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.36,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "683011",
"player_name": "Anthony Volpe",
"offense_factor": 0.9854,
"quality_score": -0.1947,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "683011",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 209.0,
"k_percent": 22.8,
"bb_percent": 10.2,
"woba": 0.297,
"xwoba": 0.291,
"xba": 0.232,
"xslg": 0.334,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.6,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 45.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.2104,
"regression_edge": -0.1714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.2286,
"xba_edge": -0.1143,
"xslg_edge": -0.4143,
"barrel_edge": -0.3778,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0857,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "682987",
"player_name": "Spencer Jones",
"offense_factor": 1.0783,
"quality_score": 1.0438,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "682987",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 253.0,
"k_percent": 36.3,
"bb_percent": 8.7,
"woba": 0.323,
"xwoba": 0.328,
"xba": 0.238,
"xslg": 0.455,
"sweet_spot_percent": 43.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 15.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 55.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 94.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 20.6,
"whiff_percent": 38.7,
"swing_percent": 53.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.1904,
"regression_edge": 0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8286,
"xba_edge": 0.0571,
"xslg_edge": 1.3143,
"barrel_edge": 2.0667,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": 2.28,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.7667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "676609",
"player_name": "José Caballero",
"offense_factor": 0.9542,
"quality_score": -0.6102,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "676609",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 423.0,
"k_percent": 24.3,
"bb_percent": 6.4,
"woba": 0.29,
"xwoba": 0.278,
"xba": 0.227,
"xslg": 0.333,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 25.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 83.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.9,
"whiff_percent": 27.9,
"swing_percent": 51.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.6537,
"regression_edge": -0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": -0.6,
"xba_edge": -0.2571,
"xslg_edge": -0.4286,
"barrel_edge": -0.5333,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.7143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.84,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0131,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0131,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "650490",
"player_name": "Yandy Díaz",
"offense_factor": 1.0626,
"quality_score": 0.8349,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "650490",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 642.0,
"k_percent": 14.3,
"bb_percent": 8.2,
"woba": 0.35,
"xwoba": 0.346,
"xba": 0.281,
"xslg": 0.439,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 48.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 6.0,
"whiff_percent": 14.8,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.9894,
"regression_edge": -0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.3429,
"xba_edge": 1.2857,
"xslg_edge": 1.0857,
"barrel_edge": 0.1111,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.0,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.6,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "666018",
"player_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
"offense_factor": 1.0632,
"quality_score": 0.8421,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "666018",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 625.0,
"k_percent": 24.4,
"bb_percent": 10.3,
"woba": 0.348,
"xwoba": 0.343,
"xba": 0.254,
"xslg": 0.438,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 46.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.4,
"whiff_percent": 22.5,
"swing_percent": 46.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.0024,
"regression_edge": -0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2571,
"xba_edge": 0.5143,
"xslg_edge": 1.0714,
"barrel_edge": 0.7333,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.2,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.9167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "691406",
"player_name": "Junior Caminero",
"offense_factor": 1.0942,
"quality_score": 1.2566,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "691406",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 640.0,
"k_percent": 18.4,
"bb_percent": 11.3,
"woba": 0.375,
"xwoba": 0.364,
"xba": 0.273,
"xslg": 0.499,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 13.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 49.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 92.7,
"launch_angle_avg": 10.4,
"whiff_percent": 24.1,
"swing_percent": 44.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.5123,
"regression_edge": -0.3143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.8571,
"xba_edge": 1.0571,
"xslg_edge": 1.9429,
"barrel_edge": 1.4444,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.7286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.72,
"sweet_spot_edge": -1.0333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "683748",
"player_name": "Victor Mesa Jr.",
"offense_factor": 1.0395,
"quality_score": 0.5271,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "683748",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 223.0,
"k_percent": 20.2,
"bb_percent": 8.8,
"woba": 0.355,
"xwoba": 0.329,
"xba": 0.249,
"xslg": 0.439,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.2,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 21.0,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 55.0
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.7339,
"regression_edge": -0.7429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8571,
"xba_edge": 0.3714,
"xslg_edge": 1.0857,
"barrel_edge": 0.9333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.4,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "668723",
"player_name": "Ryan Vilade",
"offense_factor": 1.0338,
"quality_score": 0.4503,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "668723",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 237.0,
"k_percent": 23.4,
"bb_percent": 9.4,
"woba": 0.327,
"xwoba": 0.327,
"xba": 0.252,
"xslg": 0.421,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.0,
"whiff_percent": 23.6,
"swing_percent": 48.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.5236,
"regression_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8,
"xba_edge": 0.4571,
"xslg_edge": 0.8286,
"barrel_edge": 0.1111,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.32,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.5667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "689414",
"player_name": "Liam Hicks",
"offense_factor": 0.9913,
"quality_score": -0.1157,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "689414",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 515.0,
"k_percent": 9.9,
"bb_percent": 10.1,
"woba": 0.352,
"xwoba": 0.319,
"xba": 0.261,
"xslg": 0.358,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 27.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 84.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.5,
"whiff_percent": 11.4,
"swing_percent": 41.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.019,
"regression_edge": -0.9429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.5714,
"xba_edge": 0.7143,
"xslg_edge": -0.0714,
"barrel_edge": -0.6444,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.52,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.4167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "676356",
"player_name": "Jonny DeLuca",
"offense_factor": 0.9339,
"quality_score": -0.8814,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "676356",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 325.0,
"k_percent": 21.1,
"bb_percent": 4.6,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.261,
"xba": 0.232,
"xslg": 0.325,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 30.2,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.9,
"whiff_percent": 24.9,
"swing_percent": 52.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.7644,
"regression_edge": -1.6,
"xwoba_edge": -1.0857,
"xba_edge": -0.1143,
"xslg_edge": -0.5429,
"barrel_edge": -0.6667,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.0571,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.04,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.7667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "680700",
"player_name": "Richie Palacios",
"offense_factor": 0.9867,
"quality_score": -0.1772,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "680700",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 364.0,
"k_percent": 17.0,
"bb_percent": 11.5,
"woba": 0.316,
"xwoba": 0.306,
"xba": 0.243,
"xslg": 0.334,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 28.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 86.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.4,
"whiff_percent": 20.7,
"swing_percent": 46.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.1595,
"regression_edge": -0.2857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2,
"xba_edge": 0.2,
"xslg_edge": -0.4143,
"barrel_edge": -0.5778,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.2571,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.88,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.0333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "670764",
"player_name": "Taylor Walls",
"offense_factor": 0.9131,
"quality_score": -1.1589,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "670764",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 398.0,
"k_percent": 24.2,
"bb_percent": 10.4,
"woba": 0.278,
"xwoba": 0.251,
"xba": 0.19,
"xslg": 0.261,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 21.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 19.4,
"whiff_percent": 22.0,
"swing_percent": 43.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -1.222,
"regression_edge": -0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": -1.3714,
"xba_edge": -1.3143,
"xslg_edge": -1.4571,
"barrel_edge": -0.9778,
"hard_hit_edge": -2.2429,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.12,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TB | Nick Martinez | True | - | -0.0517 | 1 | 1.0044 | 0.9154 | 0.8880 | 0.9600 | neutral | 0.3070 | 0.2950 | 15.10 | 3.60 | 17.40 | 6.80 | 32.90 |
| Home NYY | Max Fried | True | - | 0.8585 | 1 | 0.9270 | 1.0097 | 0.9680 | 0.8118 | neutral | 0.2460 | 0.2450 | 24 | 7.60 | 25 | 2.40 | 29.80 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TB | Nick Martinez | True | None | 77 | 87.20 | 2198 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1492 |
| Home NYY | Max Fried | True | None | 71 | 88.11 | 2247 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0984 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 0.9567 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 1.0071 |
| home_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9270 |
| away_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 1.0044 |
| home_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6667 |
| away_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6296 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | 0.6049 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608331",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 380.0,
"k_percent": 24.0,
"bb_percent": 7.6,
"woba": 0.245,
"xwoba": 0.246,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 29.8,
"avg_best_speed": 74.5561,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.6087,
"whiff_percent": 25.0,
"swing_percent": 46.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.463,
"command_and_miss": 0.1921,
"regression_edge": -0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 1.8857,
"barrel_edge": 1.0667,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.1571,
"whiff_edge": -0.0286,
"bb_edge": 0.4,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0984
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608331",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 71,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 71,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.10778862071564,
"release_spin_rate": 2246.884199292124,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 71,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.10778862071564,
"release_spin_rate": 2246.884199292124,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.1078,
"release_spin_rate": 2246.8842,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0984,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.7025,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.8585,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.927,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0097,
"walk_factor": 0.968,
"homer_factor": 0.8118,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "608331",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "607259",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 680.0,
"k_percent": 15.1,
"bb_percent": 3.6,
"woba": 0.295,
"xwoba": 0.307,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
"avg_best_speed": 75.7599,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.1768,
"whiff_percent": 17.4,
"swing_percent": 50.9
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.2502,
"command_and_miss": -0.56,
"regression_edge": -0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1429,
"barrel_edge": 0.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7143,
"whiff_edge": -1.1143,
"bb_edge": 1.4,
"pitch_design_score": -0.1492
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "607259",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 77,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 77,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.20062905927892,
"release_spin_rate": 2197.645020819482,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 77,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.20062905927892,
"release_spin_rate": 2197.645020819482,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 87.2006,
"release_spin_rate": 2197.645,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.1492,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.0654,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.0517,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0044,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9154,
"walk_factor": 0.888,
"homer_factor": 0.96,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "607259",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 0.9567,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 1.0071,
"home_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.927,
"away_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 1.0044,
"home_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6667,
"away_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6296,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": 0.6049
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 3.0,
"home_runs": 4.0
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 2.8702,
"home_runs": 4.0283,
"home_win_probability": 0.6093
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TB | 5-5 | 0.500 | 3.80 | 3.20 | 6 | 1L | average | strong |
| Home NYY | 5-5 | 0.500 | 4.60 | 4.50 | 1 | 1W | average | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TB | 98-64 | 0.605 | 86 | 0.531 | True |
| Home NYY | 93-68 | 0.578 | 138 | 0.857 | True |
| Signal | - | - | 0.326 | 0.176 | applied=False |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | TB @ NYY | 4 - 6 | NYY | 2 | close |
| 2026-09-23 | TB @ NYY | 2 - 9 | NYY | 7 | blowout |
| 2026-09-22 | TB @ NYY | 6 - 1 | TB | 5 | blowout |
| 2026-09-22 | TB @ NYY | 0 - 2 | NYY | 2 | close |
| 2026-07-09 | NYY @ TB | 12 - 4 | NYY | 8 | blowout |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target TB | - | - | 3 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target NYY | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized TB | 33 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 |
| Player finalized NYY | 36 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| Player model fractional TB | 32.07 | 7.13 | 4.29 | 1.06 | 4.17 | 3.06 | 6.90 |
| Player model fractional NYY | 32.80 | 8.17 | 4.33 | 1.53 | 4.68 | 2.55 | 6.98 |
| Simulation box TB | 33 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 |
| Simulation box NYY | 36 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TB | Starter | Nick Martinez | 4.10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3.78 | 1.11 | True |
| Away TB | Setup Man | Cam Booser | 0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.96 | 0.86 | True |
| Away TB | Closer | Bryan Baker | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.45 | 0.95 | True |
| Away TB | Middle Reliever | Cole Sulser | 2.20 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2.93 | 1.17 | True |
| Home NYY | Starter | Max Fried | 5.10 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2.93 | 1.03 | True |
| Home NYY | Middle Reliever | Ryan Weathers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.71 | 1.20 | True |
| Home NYY | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Paul Blackburn | 1.10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.22 | 1.06 | True |
| Home NYY | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | John Schreiber | 1.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.22 | 1.06 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away | TB | pitcher | Starter | Nick Martinez | better | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | predicted_H | -4.0000 | deboost | better |
| away | TB | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Cole Sulser | worse | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | predicted_H | 4.0000 | boost | worse |
| home | NYY | pitcher | Starter | Max Fried | worse | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | predicted_ER | 2.0000 | boost | worse |
| home | NYY | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Ryan Weathers | better | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | predicted_ER | -2.0000 | deboost | better |
| home | NYY | batter | LF | Cody Bellinger | better | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 3 | predicted_AB | -1.6500 | deboost | worse |
| home | NYY | batter | 1B | Luis García Jr. | better | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 3 | predicted_R | 1.5330 | boost | better |
| away | TB | batter | 1B | Jonathan Aranda | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | predicted_R | 1.5190 | boost | better |
| away | TB | batter | DH | Yandy Díaz | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | predicted_H | -1.3500 | deboost | worse |
| away | TB | batter | RF | Ryan Vilade | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_SO | 1.2700 | boost | worse |
| away | TB | batter | LF | Victor Mesa Jr. | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_SO | 1.2500 | boost | worse |
| home | NYY | batter | C | Austin Wells | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | predicted_AB | 1.1950 | boost | better |
| away | TB | pitcher | Setup Man | Cam Booser | better | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | predicted_BB | -1.0000 | deboost | better |
| away | TB | pitcher | Closer | Bryan Baker | better | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | predicted_BB | -1.0000 | deboost | better |
| home | NYY | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Paul Blackburn | worse | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | predicted_BB | -1.0000 | deboost | better |
| home | NYY | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | John Schreiber | better | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | predicted_BB | 1.0000 | boost | worse |
| away | TB | batter | 3B | Junior Caminero | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | predicted_H | 0.9500 | boost | better |
| home | NYY | batter | DH | Ben Rice | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 8 | predicted_AB | 0.9500 | boost | better |
| away | TB | batter | SS | Taylor Walls | worse | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | predicted_AB | 0.8660 | boost | better |
| home | NYY | batter | RF | Spencer Jones | worse | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | predicted_AB | 0.8260 | boost | better |
| home | NYY | batter | 2B | Anthony Volpe | worse | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | predicted_AB | 0.7650 | boost | better |
| home | NYY | batter | 3B | José Caballero | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_H | -0.7580 | deboost | worse |
| away | TB | batter | 2B | Richie Palacios | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | predicted_H | -0.7200 | deboost | worse |
| away | TB | batter | CF | Jonny DeLuca | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_AB | 0.6380 | boost | better |
| away | TB | batter | C | Liam Hicks | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_SO | 0.6180 | boost | worse |
| home | NYY | batter | SS | George Lombard Jr. | worse | 8 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 6 | predicted_R | -0.5780 | deboost | worse |
| home | NYY | batter | CF | Trent Grisham | better | 11 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 5 | predicted_BB | 0.5080 | boost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Nick Martinez |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0517 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.1492 |
| Avg Velo | 87.2006 |
| Avg Spin | 2197.6450 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 4.1000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 4 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 4 |
| Season ERA | 3.1000 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0944 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.8060 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.2670 |
| Last Start IP | 2.2000 |
{
"team": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 162,
"wins": 98,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.6049,
"runs_scored": 736.0,
"runs_allowed": 650.0,
"run_differential": 86.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.5309,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5432,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.0123,
"offense_index": 1.0128,
"defense_index": 1.118,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
"run_differential": 6.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1543
},
"opponent": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0233,
"defense_index": 1.2017,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1711
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0168,
"offense_edge": 0.0128,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0233,
"defense_strength": 0.118,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2017,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0019,
"run_prevention": 0.9928,
"strikeout": 0.9976
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "607259",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "607259",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 680.0,
"k_percent": 15.1,
"bb_percent": 3.6,
"woba": 0.295,
"xwoba": 0.307,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
"avg_best_speed": 75.7599,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.1768,
"whiff_percent": 17.4,
"swing_percent": 50.9
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.2502,
"command_and_miss": -0.56,
"regression_edge": -0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1429,
"barrel_edge": 0.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7143,
"whiff_edge": -1.1143,
"bb_edge": 1.4,
"pitch_design_score": -0.1492
},
"quality_score": -0.0517,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0044,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9154,
"walk_factor": 0.888,
"homer_factor": 0.96,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "607259",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0044,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 1.0044,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.888,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.96,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 0.9154,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 56.2,
"ER": 24,
"H": 55,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 40,
"HR": 7,
"ERA": 3.811764705882353,
"WHIP": 1.076470588235294,
"K9": 6.352941176470589,
"HR9": 1.111764705882353,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 5,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-27T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "607259",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 77,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 77,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.20062905927892,
"release_spin_rate": 2197.645020819482,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 77,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.20062905927892,
"release_spin_rate": 2197.645020819482,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 87.2006,
"release_spin_rate": 2197.645,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.1492,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.0654,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 31.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8611,
"prior_weight": 0.1389
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "607259",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 31,
"reference_playing_time": 5.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 26.1,
"ER": 11.0,
"R": 11.0,
"H": 24.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 18.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 104.0,
"Pitches": 374.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 2.2,
"R": 2.2,
"H": 4.8,
"BB": 0.8,
"SO": 3.6,
"HR": 0.8,
"BF": 20.8,
"Pitches": 74.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.7595,
"WHIP": 1.0633,
"ER_per_IP": 0.41772,
"H_per_IP": 0.91139,
"BB_per_IP": 0.1519,
"SO_per_IP": 0.68354,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1519
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 56.2,
"ER": 24.0,
"R": 24.0,
"H": 55.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 40.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 225.0,
"Pitches": 799.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 2.4,
"R": 2.4,
"H": 5.5,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 4.0,
"HR": 0.7,
"BF": 22.5,
"Pitches": 79.9
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.8118,
"WHIP": 1.0765,
"ER_per_IP": 0.42353,
"H_per_IP": 0.97059,
"BB_per_IP": 0.10588,
"SO_per_IP": 0.70588,
"HR_per_IP": 0.12353
}
},
"season": {
"games": 31,
"totals": {
"IP": 180.0,
"ER": 62.0,
"R": 62.0,
"H": 171.0,
"BB": 26.0,
"SO": 109.0,
"HR": 22.0,
"BF": 722.0,
"Pitches": 2524.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 5.5161,
"BB": 0.8387,
"SO": 3.5161,
"HR": 0.7097,
"BF": 23.2903,
"Pitches": 81.4194
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.1,
"WHIP": 1.0944,
"ER_per_IP": 0.34444,
"H_per_IP": 0.95,
"BB_per_IP": 0.14444,
"SO_per_IP": 0.60556,
"HR_per_IP": 0.12222
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_ER": 2.327,
"predicted_H": 5.239,
"predicted_BB": 0.933,
"predicted_SO": 3.941,
"predicted_HR": 0.763,
"predicted_ERA": 3.7818,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1146
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4087,
"form_weight": 0.5913,
"form_reliability": 0.8611,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 31.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8611,
"prior_weight": 0.1389
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.2,
"form": 5.2,
"final": 5.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 2.327,
"final": 3.0107,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 8.0,
"form": 5.239,
"final": 6.3674,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.933,
"final": 1.3691,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 3.941,
"final": 4.7825,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.763,
"final": 1.2685,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.7818,
"final": 3.7818,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1146,
"final": 1.1146,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Cam Booser |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.4179 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0509 |
| Avg Velo | 90.7732 |
| Avg Spin | 2027.3870 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 0.2000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 1.9597 |
| Season WHIP | 0.7742 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9610 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.6670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 162,
"wins": 98,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.6049,
"runs_scored": 736.0,
"runs_allowed": 650.0,
"run_differential": 86.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.5309,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5432,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.0123,
"offense_index": 1.0128,
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"wins": 93,
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"method": "team_form_snapshot",
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"defense_strength": 0.118,
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"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
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"strikeout": 0.9976
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "592155",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "592155",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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}
},
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},
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},
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}{
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"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
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},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
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}{
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}
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}{
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}{
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"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
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}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Bryan Baker |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.4514 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 1.2591 |
| Season WHIP | 0.8394 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9900 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
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},
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},
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}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
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},
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}{
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}{
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},
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},
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},
"rates": {
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}
},
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"H": 5.0,
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},
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},
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}
},
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},
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}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.161,
"predicted_H": 0.665,
"predicted_BB": 0.288,
"predicted_SO": 0.721,
"predicted_HR": 0.05,
"predicted_ERA": 1.4478,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.9539
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4656,
"form_weight": 0.5344,
"form_reliability": 0.7265,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.284,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7265,
"prior_weight": 0.2735
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.161,
"final": 0.086,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.665,
"final": 0.821,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.288,
"final": 0.6195,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.721,
"final": 0.3853,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.05,
"final": 0.0267,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.4478,
"final": 1.4478,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.9539,
"final": 0.9539,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Cole Sulser |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.1006 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.1013 |
| Avg Velo | 88.0544 |
| Avg Spin | 2119.2007 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 2.2000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 4 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 3.8343 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1893 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.0900 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 162,
"wins": 98,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.6049,
"runs_scored": 736.0,
"runs_allowed": 650.0,
"run_differential": 86.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.5309,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5432,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.0123,
"offense_index": 1.0128,
"defense_index": 1.118,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
"run_differential": 6.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1543
},
"opponent": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0233,
"defense_index": 1.2017,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1711
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0168,
"offense_edge": 0.0128,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0233,
"defense_strength": 0.118,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2017,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0019,
"run_prevention": 0.9928,
"strikeout": 0.9976
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "642121",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "642121",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 209.0,
"k_percent": 23.7,
"bb_percent": 7.2,
"woba": 0.306,
"xwoba": 0.321,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 11.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.1,
"avg_best_speed": 75.7042,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.3453,
"whiff_percent": 27.1,
"swing_percent": 51.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.2621,
"command_and_miss": 0.2979,
"regression_edge": -0.4286,
"xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
"barrel_edge": -1.0222,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.4571,
"whiff_edge": 0.2714,
"bb_edge": 0.5,
"pitch_design_score": -0.1013
},
"quality_score": -0.1006,
"sample_weight": 0.836,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0085,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0167,
"walk_factor": 0.9666,
"homer_factor": 1.0901,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "642121",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0071,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0071,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9721,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0753,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.014,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 2,
"H": 6,
"BB": 3,
"SO": 8,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 1.8,
"WHIP": 0.9,
"K9": 7.2,
"HR9": 0.9,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "642121",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 12,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 12,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.05442215361292,
"release_spin_rate": 2119.2006534735324,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 12,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.05442215361292,
"release_spin_rate": 2119.2006534735324,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.0544,
"release_spin_rate": 2119.2007,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.1013,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.7239,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.632,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6994,
"prior_weight": 0.3006
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "642121",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 50,
"reference_playing_time": 0.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 21.0,
"Pitches": 91.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.2,
"Pitches": 18.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.8,
"WHIP": 1.2,
"ER_per_IP": 0.2,
"H_per_IP": 0.8,
"BB_per_IP": 0.4,
"SO_per_IP": 1.2,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 8.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 39.0,
"Pitches": 162.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.3,
"SO": 0.8,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 3.9,
"Pitches": 16.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.8,
"WHIP": 0.9,
"ER_per_IP": 0.2,
"H_per_IP": 0.6,
"BB_per_IP": 0.3,
"SO_per_IP": 0.8,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1
}
},
"season": {
"games": 50,
"totals": {
"IP": 56.1,
"ER": 24.0,
"R": 28.0,
"H": 51.0,
"BB": 16.0,
"SO": 56.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 233.0,
"Pitches": 925.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.48,
"R": 0.56,
"H": 1.02,
"BB": 0.32,
"SO": 1.12,
"HR": 0.14,
"BF": 4.66,
"Pitches": 18.5
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.8343,
"WHIP": 1.1893,
"ER_per_IP": 0.42604,
"H_per_IP": 0.90533,
"BB_per_IP": 0.28402,
"SO_per_IP": 0.99408,
"HR_per_IP": 0.12426
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.293,
"predicted_H": 0.739,
"predicted_BB": 0.318,
"predicted_SO": 0.894,
"predicted_HR": 0.078,
"predicted_ERA": 2.9336,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1749
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.477,
"form_weight": 0.523,
"form_reliability": 0.6994,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.632,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6994,
"prior_weight": 0.3006
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.2,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.293,
"final": 0.1532,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.739,
"final": 0.3865,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.318,
"final": 0.1663,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.894,
"final": 0.4676,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.078,
"final": 0.0408,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.9336,
"final": 2.9336,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1749,
"final": 1.1749,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.168 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.173 | 0.000 | -0.173 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.230 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.075 | 4.000 | -0.075 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.259 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.299 | 0.250 | -0.299 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.368 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.363 | 1.000 | 0.637 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.350 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 1.217 | 1.000 | -1.217 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.148 | 0.000 | -0.148 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.363 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.363 | 0.400 | -0.163 | -0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.606 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.614 | 1.000 | 0.386 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.490 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.578 | 0.000 | -0.578 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.415 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.454 | 0.250 | -0.454 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.632 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.641 | 1.000 | -0.641 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3680 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6320, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.3500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.3500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_R: 0.6060 -> 0.6699 (boost 0.0639, better) | predicted_AB: 5.2300 -> 4.6845 (deboost -0.5455, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3608 -> 0.3208 (deboost -0.0400, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | - | predicted_AB: 4.6845 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.6845, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.022 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=20.0, weight=0.160, BvP AVG=0.200) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6542 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3458, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5201 (boost 0.5201, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7348 (deboost -0.2652, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_BB: 0.3969 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6031, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.5201 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5201, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "650490",
"player_name": "Yandy Díaz",
"position": "DH",
"team": "TB",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.168,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 5.23,
"predicted_AVG": 0.259,
"predicted_BB": 0.368,
"predicted_H": 1.35,
"predicted_HR": 0.14,
"predicted_OBP": 0.363,
"predicted_R": 0.606,
"predicted_RBI": 0.49,
"predicted_SLG": 0.415,
"predicted_SO": 0.632
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1649,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 4.6845,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2725,
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"before": 5.23,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.23,
"percent_delta": -0.2352,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.368,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.632,
"percent_delta": 1.7174,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.35,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.35,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.363,
"after": 0.336,
"delta": -0.027,
"percent_delta": -0.0744,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.606,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.394,
"percent_delta": 0.6502,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.49,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.49,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.415,
"after": 0.432,
"delta": 0.017,
"percent_delta": 0.041,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.632,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.632,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.368,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.632,
"percent_delta": 1.7174,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.35,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.35,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.168 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.230 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.259 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.368 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.350 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.363 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.606 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.490 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.415 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.632 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.165 | -0.003 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.684 | -0.546 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.273 | 0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.380 | 0.012 |
| predicted_H | 1.265 | -0.085 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.039 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.117 | -0.023 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.361 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.670 | 0.064 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.456 | -0.034 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.408 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.597 | -0.035 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.165 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.684 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.380 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.245 | -0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.115 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.321 | -0.040 |
| predicted_R | 0.654 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.445 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.377 | -0.031 |
| predicted_SO | 0.597 | 0.000 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.022
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=20.0, weight=0.160, BvP AVG=0.200)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 1.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.170 | 0.170 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.397 | 0.397 |
| H | 0.981 | -0.019 |
| HR | 0.152 | 0.152 |
| RBI | 0.520 | 0.520 |
| SO | 0.735 | -0.265 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.170 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.242 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.603 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.019 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.152 |
| OBP | 0.315 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.520 |
| SLG | 0.402 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.265 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.165 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.684 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.242 | -0.024 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.620 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.245 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.115 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.346 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.445 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.402 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.403 |
KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.260 | 0.018 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.336 | 0.021 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.432 | 0.030 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.3500 | 0.4091 | 0.4000 | 0.3500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.0500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 0.2250 | 0.3111 | 0.2500 | 0.2250 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.1250 | 0.1500 |
| season | 0.60 | 155 | - | 618.000 | 182.000 | 26.000 | 1.000 | 22.000 | 85.000 | 94.000 | 57.000 | 98.000 | 0.2945 | 0.3603 | 0.4466 | 0.2945 | 0.0356 | 0.1375 | 0.0922 | 0.1586 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1610 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9840 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2899 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3950 |
| predicted_H | 1.1550 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0390 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0870 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3579 |
| predicted_R | 0.7520 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4120 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3983 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5530 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1680 | 0.1610 | 0.1649 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.2300 | 3.9840 | 4.6845 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2590 | 0.2899 | 0.2725 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3680 | 0.3950 | 0.3798 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.3500 | 1.1550 | 1.2646 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0390 | 0.0390 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.0870 | 0.1168 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3630 | 0.3579 | 0.3608 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6060 | 0.7520 | 0.6699 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4900 | 0.4120 | 0.4558 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4150 | 0.3983 | 0.4077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6320 | 0.5530 | 0.5974 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 663 |
| Season rows before report date | 663 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 155 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 650490 |
| playerID | 650490 |
| playerName | Yandy Díaz |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.35 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.346 |
| sl_xba | 0.281 |
| sl_xslg | 0.439 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 6.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 14.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.173 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.175 | 0.000 | -0.175 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.390 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.907 | 5.000 | -0.907 | -2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.283 | 0.400 | 0.050 | -0.067 |
| predicted_BB | 0.436 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.460 | 0.000 | 0.540 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.100 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.107 | 2.000 | -0.107 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.152 | 0.000 | 0.848 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.338 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.364 | 0.400 | 0.136 | 0.100 |
| predicted_R | 0.481 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_R | 0.517 | 1.000 | 1.483 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.654 | 0.000 | 0.346 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.438 | 1.333 | 1.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.445 | 0.400 | 0.888 | 0.933 |
| predicted_SO | 1.038 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.067 | 0.000 | -1.067 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.4810 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.5190, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.3900 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.3900, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2490 -> 0.2566 (boost 0.0076, better) | predicted_AB: 4.3900 -> 4.0789 (deboost -0.3111, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3420 -> 0.3248 (deboost -0.0172, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_RBI: 0.5020 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5020, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.042 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.091) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4479 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4479, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.6194 (boost 0.6194, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8845 (deboost -0.1155, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 5 | predicted_BB: 0.3854 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6146, better) | predicted_SO: 1.2718 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.2718, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4400 -> 0.4190 (deboost -0.0210, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "666018",
"player_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
"position": "1B",
"team": "TB",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.173,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.39,
"predicted_AVG": 0.249,
"predicted_BB": 0.436,
"predicted_H": 1.1,
"predicted_HR": 0.2,
"predicted_OBP": 0.338,
"predicted_R": 0.481,
"predicted_RBI": 0.56,
"predicted_SLG": 0.438,
"predicted_SO": 1.038
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1778,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.0789,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2566,
"predicted_BB": 0.4351,
"predicted_H": 1.0475,
"predicted_HBP": 0.041,
"predicted_HR": 0.186,
"predicted_OBP": 0.342,
"predicted_R": 0.4587,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5141,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4448,
"predicted_SO": 1.0371
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.39,
"after": 4.0789,
"delta": -0.3111,
"percent_delta": -0.0709,
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"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.39,
"percent_delta": -0.3166,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.239,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.0402,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.436,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.564,
"percent_delta": 1.2936,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -0.0909,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.8,
"percent_delta": 4.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.338,
"after": 0.317,
"delta": -0.021,
"percent_delta": -0.0621,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.481,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.519,
"percent_delta": 3.158,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.56,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.44,
"percent_delta": 0.7857,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.438,
"after": 0.419,
"delta": -0.019,
"percent_delta": -0.0434,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.038,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.038,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.481,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.519,
"percent_delta": 3.158,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.39,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.39,
"percent_delta": -0.3166,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.173 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.390 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.436 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.100 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.338 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.481 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.438 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.038 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | 0.005 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.079 | -0.311 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.257 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.435 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.048 | -0.052 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.186 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.342 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.459 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.514 | -0.046 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.445 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 1.037 | -0.001 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.079 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.435 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.031 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.182 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | -0.017 |
| predicted_R | 0.448 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.502 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.431 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 1.037 | 0.000 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.042
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.091)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.155 | 0.155 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.385 | 0.385 |
| H | 0.884 | -0.116 |
| HR | 0.174 | 0.174 |
| RBI | 0.619 | 0.619 |
| SO | 1.272 | 0.272 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.229 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.615 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.116 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| OBP | 0.305 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.381 |
| SLG | 0.410 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.272 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.178 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.079 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | -0.024 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.565 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.031 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.182 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | -0.020 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.448 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.498 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.410 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.037 |
KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.246 | 0.017 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.324 | 0.019 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.440 | 0.030 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.2778 | 0.3810 | 0.5000 | 0.2778 | 0.0556 | 0.0556 | 0.1667 | 0.2778 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 11.000 | 0.2286 | 0.2895 | 0.4571 | 0.2286 | 0.0571 | 0.0857 | 0.0857 | 0.3143 |
| season | 0.60 | 156 | - | 586.000 | 162.000 | 27.000 | 0.000 | 23.000 | 93.000 | 75.000 | 68.000 | 162.000 | 0.2765 | 0.3581 | 0.4403 | 0.2764 | 0.0393 | 0.1587 | 0.1160 | 0.2764 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1840 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6790 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2664 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4340 |
| predicted_H | 0.9800 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0410 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1680 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3471 |
| predicted_R | 0.4300 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4550 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4535 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0360 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1730 | 0.1840 | 0.1778 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3900 | 3.6790 | 4.0789 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2490 | 0.2664 | 0.2566 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4360 | 0.4340 | 0.4351 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1000 | 0.9800 | 1.0475 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0410 | 0.0410 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2000 | 0.1680 | 0.1860 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3380 | 0.3471 | 0.3420 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4810 | 0.4300 | 0.4587 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5600 | 0.4550 | 0.5141 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4380 | 0.4535 | 0.4448 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0380 | 1.0360 | 1.0371 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 644 |
| Season rows before report date | 644 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 156 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 2 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.4 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 666018 |
| playerID | 666018 |
| playerName | Jonathan Aranda |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.348 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.343 |
| sl_xba | 0.254 |
| sl_xslg | 0.438 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 46.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.163 | 1.000 | -0.163 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.080 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.890 | 4.000 | 0.110 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.256 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_AVG | 0.285 | 0.500 | 0.215 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.497 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.536 | 0.000 | -0.536 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.050 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_H | 1.107 | 2.000 | 0.893 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.277 | 0.000 | -0.277 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.367 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.373 | 0.500 | 0.127 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.620 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.671 | 1.000 | -0.671 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.610 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.672 | 0.000 | 0.328 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.501 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.543 | 0.750 | -0.043 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.791 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.788 | 0.000 | -0.788 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.0500 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.9500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7910 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7910, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2560 -> 0.2683 (boost 0.0123, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0800 -> 3.8544 (deboost -0.2256, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5064 -> 0.4835 (deboost -0.0229, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5593 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4407, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4878 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4878, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.055 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.133) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6410 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3590, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4806 (boost 0.4806, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5227 (deboost -0.4773, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | predicted_HR: 0.2312 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7688, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1944 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1944, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4740 -> 0.5090 (boost 0.0350, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2450 -> 0.2570 (boost 0.0120, better) | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "691406",
"player_name": "Junior Caminero",
"position": "3B",
"team": "TB",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.16,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 4.08,
"predicted_AVG": 0.256,
"predicted_BB": 0.497,
"predicted_H": 1.05,
"predicted_HR": 0.24,
"predicted_OBP": 0.367,
"predicted_R": 0.62,
"predicted_RBI": 0.61,
"predicted_SLG": 0.501,
"predicted_SO": 0.791
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1683,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 3.8544,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2683,
"predicted_BB": 0.4878,
"predicted_H": 1.0338,
"predicted_HBP": 0.015,
"predicted_HR": 0.2269,
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{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.08,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -0.0196,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.497,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.497,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.05,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.95,
"percent_delta": 0.9048,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.24,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.367,
"after": 0.341,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -0.0708,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.62,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.62,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.39,
"percent_delta": 0.6393,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.501,
"after": 0.506,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.01,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.791,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.791,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.05,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.95,
"percent_delta": 0.9048,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.791,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.791,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.080 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.256 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.497 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.050 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.367 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.620 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.610 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.501 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.791 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.168 | 0.008 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.854 | -0.226 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.268 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.488 | -0.009 |
| predicted_H | 1.034 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.227 | -0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.368 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.656 | 0.036 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.573 | -0.037 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.506 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.779 | -0.012 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.168 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.854 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.488 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.018 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.223 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.347 | -0.021 |
| predicted_R | 0.641 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.559 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.483 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SO | 0.779 | 0.000 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.055
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.133)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.194 | 0.194 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.481 | 0.481 |
| H | 0.841 | -0.159 |
| HR | 0.231 | 0.231 |
| RBI | 0.523 | -0.477 |
| SO | 0.803 | -0.197 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.194 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.228 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.519 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.159 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.769 |
| OBP | 0.322 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.477 |
| SLG | 0.474 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.197 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.168 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.146 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | -0.036 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.512 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.018 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.777 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | -0.025 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.359 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.441 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.474 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.221 |
KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.245 | 0.017 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.342 | 0.020 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.509 | 0.035 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.3333 | 0.4444 | 0.6000 | 0.3333 | 0.0667 | 0.1333 | 0.2000 | 0.2667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.2647 | 0.3243 | 0.4118 | 0.2647 | 0.0294 | 0.1177 | 0.0882 | 0.1765 |
| season | 0.60 | 163 | - | 618.000 | 171.000 | 26.000 | 1.000 | 42.000 | 101.000 | 101.000 | 81.000 | 129.000 | 0.2767 | 0.3626 | 0.5259 | 0.2767 | 0.0680 | 0.1634 | 0.1311 | 0.2087 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1790 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5650 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2841 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4760 |
| predicted_H | 1.0130 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0150 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2100 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3686 |
| predicted_R | 0.7030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5250 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5134 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7640 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1600 | 0.1790 | 0.1683 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.0800 | 3.5650 | 3.8544 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2560 | 0.2841 | 0.2683 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4970 | 0.4760 | 0.4878 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0500 | 1.0130 | 1.0338 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0150 | 0.0150 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2400 | 0.2100 | 0.2269 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3670 | 0.3686 | 0.3677 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6200 | 0.7030 | 0.6564 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6100 | 0.5250 | 0.5728 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5010 | 0.5134 | 0.5064 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7910 | 0.7640 | 0.7792 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 674 |
| Season rows before report date | 674 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 163 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 691406 |
| playerID | 691406 |
| playerName | Junior Caminero |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.375 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.364 |
| sl_xba | 0.273 |
| sl_xslg | 0.499 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 49.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 10.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.111 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.107 | 0.000 | -0.107 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.042 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.053 | 0.000 | -0.053 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.306 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.420 | 3.000 | 0.580 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.261 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.262 | 0.333 | -0.262 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.306 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.337 | 0.000 | -0.337 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.049 | 0.000 | -0.049 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.861 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.897 | 1.000 | -0.897 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.194 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.214 | 0.000 | -0.214 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.323 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.328 | 0.333 | -0.328 | -0.333 |
| predicted_R | 0.514 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.556 | 0.000 | -0.556 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.472 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.527 | 0.000 | -0.527 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.496 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.513 | 0.333 | -0.513 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.750 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.724 | 1.000 | 1.276 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7500 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2500, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8610 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8610, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.3060 -> 3.4017 (boost 0.0957, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4960 -> 0.4827 (deboost -0.0133, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4827 -> 0.4747 (deboost -0.0080, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.4017 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5983, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2976 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2976, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.050 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5073 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4927, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3485 (boost 0.3485, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5097 (deboost -0.4903, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 7 | predicted_H: 0.8298 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1702, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.5097 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5097, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4430 -> 0.4760 (boost 0.0330, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4760 -> 0.4340 (deboost -0.0420, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "683748",
"player_name": "Victor Mesa Jr.",
"position": "LF",
"team": "TB",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.111,
"predicted_3B": 0.042,
"predicted_AB": 3.306,
"predicted_AVG": 0.261,
"predicted_BB": 0.306,
"predicted_H": 0.861,
"predicted_HR": 0.194,
"predicted_OBP": 0.323,
"predicted_R": 0.514,
"predicted_RBI": 0.472,
"predicted_SLG": 0.496,
"predicted_SO": 0.75
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.14,
"predicted_3B": 0.0349,
"predicted_AB": 3.4017,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2683,
"predicted_BB": 0.2976,
"predicted_H": 0.9126,
"predicted_HBP": 0.003,
"predicted_HR": 0.1722,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3271,
"predicted_R": 0.5195,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4766,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4827,
"predicted_SO": 0.7911
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.306,
"after": 3.4017,
"delta": 0.0957,
"percent_delta": 0.0289,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.514,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.514,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.472,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.472,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.496,
"after": 0.434,
"delta": -0.062,
"percent_delta": -0.125,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.25,
"percent_delta": 1.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.25,
"percent_delta": 1.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.861,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.861,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.111 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.042 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.306 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.261 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.306 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.861 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.194 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.323 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.514 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.472 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.496 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.750 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.140 | 0.029 |
| predicted_3B | 0.035 | -0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 3.402 | 0.096 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.268 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.298 | -0.008 |
| predicted_H | 0.913 | 0.052 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.003 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.172 | -0.022 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.519 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.477 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.483 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.791 | 0.041 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.140 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.402 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.298 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.898 | -0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.169 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.323 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.507 | -0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.465 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.475 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.791 | 0.000 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.050
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.158 | 0.158 |
| 3B | 0.021 | 0.021 |
| BB | 0.348 | 0.348 |
| H | 0.830 | -0.170 |
| HR | 0.201 | 0.201 |
| RBI | 0.510 | -0.490 |
| SO | 0.972 | -0.028 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.158 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.021 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.225 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.348 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.170 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.201 |
| OBP | 0.298 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.510 |
| SLG | 0.443 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.028 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.140 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.035 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.598 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | -0.039 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.298 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.102 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.169 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.298 | -0.025 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.493 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.465 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.443 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.209 |
KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.242 | 0.017 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.317 | 0.019 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.476 | 0.033 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.3500 | 0.3810 | 0.4500 | 0.3500 | 0.0000 | 0.1500 | 0.0500 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 0.2778 | 0.3333 | 0.4167 | 0.2778 | 0.0278 | 0.1111 | 0.0833 | 0.2778 |
| season | 0.60 | 72 | - | 238.000 | 62.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 14.000 | 34.000 | 37.000 | 22.000 | 54.000 | 0.2605 | 0.3218 | 0.4958 | 0.2605 | 0.0588 | 0.1429 | 0.0924 | 0.2269 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1800 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0250 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5340 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2784 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2860 |
| predicted_H | 0.9840 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0030 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1420 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3328 |
| predicted_R | 0.5270 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4830 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4643 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1110 | 0.1800 | 0.1400 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0420 | 0.0250 | 0.0349 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3060 | 3.5340 | 3.4017 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2610 | 0.2784 | 0.2683 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3060 | 0.2860 | 0.2976 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8610 | 0.9840 | 0.9126 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0030 | 0.0030 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1940 | 0.1420 | 0.1722 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3230 | 0.3328 | 0.3271 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5140 | 0.5270 | 0.5195 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4720 | 0.4830 | 0.4766 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4960 | 0.4643 | 0.4827 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7500 | 0.8480 | 0.7911 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 243 |
| Season rows before report date | 243 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 72 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 1 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20261003_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 683748 |
| playerID | 683748 |
| playerName | Victor Mesa Jr. |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.355 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.329 |
| sl_xba | 0.249 |
| sl_xslg | 0.439 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 21.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 55.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.124 | 0.000 | -0.124 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.039 | 0.000 | -0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.708 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.062 | 2.000 | -0.062 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.275 | 0.000 | 0.059 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.270 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.310 | 0.000 | 0.690 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.320 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.841 | 0.000 | 0.159 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.147 | 0.000 | -0.147 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.274 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.344 | 0.000 | 0.156 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.315 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.391 | 0.000 | -0.391 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.558 | 0.000 | -0.558 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.345 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.485 | 0.000 | -0.151 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.730 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.775 | 0.000 | 1.225 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7300 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2700, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.3150 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3150, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.3200 -> 0.4374 (boost 0.1174, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3450 -> 0.3352 (deboost -0.0098, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3352 -> 0.2686 (deboost -0.0666, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.7624 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2376, worse) | predicted_H: 0.4306 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4306, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.141 HR/AB=0.024 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.3052 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3052, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5340 (boost 0.5340, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7576 (deboost -0.2424, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5340 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4660, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3601 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3601, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4060 -> 0.4360 (boost 0.0300, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3170 -> 0.2880 (deboost -0.0290, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "668723",
"player_name": "Ryan Vilade",
"position": "RF",
"team": "TB",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.09,
"predicted_3B": 0.022,
"predicted_AB": 2.708,
"predicted_AVG": 0.22,
"predicted_BB": 0.27,
"predicted_H": 0.32,
"predicted_HR": 0.06,
"predicted_OBP": 0.274,
"predicted_R": 0.315,
"predicted_RBI": 0.25,
"predicted_SLG": 0.345,
"predicted_SO": 0.73
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0799,
"predicted_3B": 0.0186,
"predicted_AB": 2.798,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2137,
"predicted_BB": 0.2755,
"predicted_H": 0.4374,
"predicted_HBP": 0.057,
"predicted_HR": 0.0693,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2792,
"predicted_R": 0.3125,
"predicted_RBI": 0.335,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3352,
"predicted_SO": 0.7624
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.708,
"after": 2.798,
"delta": 0.09,
"percent_delta": 0.0332,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.2137,
"delta": -0.0063,
"percent_delta": -0.0286,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.4374,
"delta": 0.1174,
"percent_delta": 0.3669,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.274,
"after": 0.2792,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.019,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.335,
"delta": 0.085,
"percent_delta": 0.34,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.3352,
"delta": -0.0098,
"percent_delta": -0.0284,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
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"before": 0.27,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.73,
"percent_delta": 2.7037,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.68,
"percent_delta": 2.125,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.057,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.057,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.06,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.274,
"after": 0.288,
"delta": 0.014,
"percent_delta": 0.0511,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.315,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.315,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.25,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.421,
"delta": 0.076,
"percent_delta": 0.2203,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.73,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.27,
"percent_delta": 1.7397,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.73,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.27,
"percent_delta": 1.7397,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.315,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.315,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.708 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.320 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.274 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.315 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.345 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.730 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.080 | -0.010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 2.798 | 0.090 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.214 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.276 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.437 | 0.117 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.057 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.069 | 0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.279 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.312 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.335 | 0.085 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.335 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.762 | 0.032 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.080 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.798 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.154 | -0.060 |
| predicted_BB | 0.276 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.431 | -0.007 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.057 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.068 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.230 | -0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.305 | -0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.327 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.269 | -0.067 |
| predicted_SO | 0.762 | 0.000 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.141 HR/AB=0.024
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.149 | 0.149 |
| 3B | 0.018 | 0.018 |
| BB | 0.360 | 0.360 |
| H | 0.758 | -0.242 |
| HR | 0.155 | 0.155 |
| RBI | 0.534 | 0.534 |
| SO | 0.971 | -0.029 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.149 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.018 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.218 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.360 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.242 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| OBP | 0.298 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.466 |
| SLG | 0.406 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.029 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.080 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.202 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.218 | 0.064 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.276 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.569 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.068 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.298 | 0.068 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.305 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.673 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.406 | 0.137 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.238 |
KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.235 | 0.017 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.317 | 0.019 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.436 | 0.030 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.1333 | 0.1875 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.0000 | 0.1333 | 0.0667 | 0.2667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 30.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 0.1333 | 0.2778 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.0000 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.3333 |
| season | 0.60 | 89 | - | 241.000 | 59.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 42.000 | 28.000 | 24.000 | 65.000 | 0.2448 | 0.3185 | 0.4315 | 0.2448 | 0.0456 | 0.1743 | 0.0996 | 0.2697 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0660 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 |
| predicted_AB | 2.9220 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2050 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2830 |
| predicted_H | 0.5990 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0570 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0820 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2863 |
| predicted_R | 0.3090 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4520 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3217 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8070 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0900 | 0.0660 | 0.0799 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0220 | 0.0140 | 0.0186 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.7080 | 2.9220 | 2.7980 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2200 | 0.2050 | 0.2137 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2700 | 0.2830 | 0.2755 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.3200 | 0.5990 | 0.4374 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0570 | 0.0570 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0600 | 0.0820 | 0.0693 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2740 | 0.2863 | 0.2792 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3150 | 0.3090 | 0.3125 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2500 | 0.4520 | 0.3350 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3450 | 0.3217 | 0.3352 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7300 | 0.8070 | 0.7624 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 258 |
| Season rows before report date | 258 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 89 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-1B |
| gameID | 20260927_TB@PHI |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 668723 |
| note | Lined out for Aranda in the 6th. |
| playerID | 668723 |
| playerName | Ryan Vilade |
| pos | RF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.327 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.327 |
| sl_xba | 0.252 |
| sl_xslg | 0.421 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.118 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.208 | 0.000 | -0.208 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.710 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.368 | 3.000 | 0.632 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.316 | 0.000 | -0.066 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.396 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.440 | 0.000 | -0.440 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.830 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.064 | 0.000 | -0.064 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.144 | 0.000 | -0.144 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.409 | 0.000 | -0.159 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.458 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.368 | 0.000 | -0.368 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.490 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.736 | 1.000 | -0.736 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.373 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.506 | 0.000 | -0.256 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.382 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.344 | 0.000 | 0.656 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.3820 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6180, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.4900 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4900, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.8300 -> 0.8848 (boost 0.0548, better) | predicted_AB: 3.7100 -> 3.6421 (deboost -0.0679, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3445 -> 0.3127 (deboost -0.0318, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.8711 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1289, better) | predicted_AB: 3.6421 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.6421, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.023 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4187 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4187, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5781 (boost 0.5781, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8391 (deboost -0.1609, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5781 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4219, better) | predicted_SO: 0.5006 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5006, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4050 -> 0.4350 (boost 0.0300, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4350 -> 0.3850 (deboost -0.0500, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "689414",
"player_name": "Liam Hicks",
"position": "C",
"team": "TB",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.118,
"predicted_3B": 0.007,
"predicted_AB": 3.71,
"predicted_AVG": 0.224,
"predicted_BB": 0.396,
"predicted_H": 0.83,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.345,
"predicted_R": 0.458,
"predicted_RBI": 0.49,
"predicted_SLG": 0.373,
"predicted_SO": 0.382
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1689,
"predicted_3B": 0.0061,
"predicted_AB": 3.6421,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2435,
"predicted_BB": 0.3899,
"predicted_H": 0.8848,
"predicted_HBP": 0.047,
"predicted_HR": 0.0861,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3445,
"predicted_R": 0.4288,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3876,
"predicted_SO": 0.3959
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.118,
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"delta": 0.0509,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.09,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.308,
"delta": -0.037,
"percent_delta": -0.1072,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.458,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.458,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.49,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.49,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.373,
"after": 0.385,
"delta": 0.012,
"percent_delta": 0.0322,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.618,
"percent_delta": 1.6178,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.618,
"percent_delta": 1.6178,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.49,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.49,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.118 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.710 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.396 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.830 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.458 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.490 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.373 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.382 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.169 | 0.051 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.642 | -0.068 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | 0.019 |
| predicted_BB | 0.390 | -0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.885 | 0.055 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.047 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.086 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.344 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.429 | -0.029 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.500 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.388 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 0.396 | 0.014 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.169 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.642 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.390 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.871 | -0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.047 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.084 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | -0.032 |
| predicted_R | 0.419 | -0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.488 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.358 | -0.029 |
| predicted_SO | 0.396 | 0.000 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.023
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.137 | 0.137 |
| 3B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.350 | 0.350 |
| H | 0.839 | -0.161 |
| HR | 0.137 | 0.137 |
| RBI | 0.578 | 0.578 |
| SO | 0.501 | 0.501 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.137 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.240 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.350 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.161 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.137 |
| OBP | 0.315 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.422 |
| SLG | 0.405 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.501 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.169 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.642 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.390 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.129 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.084 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.419 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.512 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.405 | 0.047 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.396 |
KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.258 | 0.018 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.335 | 0.020 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.435 | 0.030 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.2381 | 0.2727 | 0.3810 | 0.2381 | 0.0000 | 0.0952 | 0.0476 | 0.0952 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 0.2647 | 0.3590 | 0.3529 | 0.2647 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.1471 | 0.1177 |
| season | 0.60 | 144 | - | 485.000 | 137.000 | 17.000 | 1.000 | 18.000 | 83.000 | 66.000 | 57.000 | 55.000 | 0.2825 | 0.3661 | 0.4330 | 0.2825 | 0.0371 | 0.1711 | 0.1175 | 0.1134 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2350 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0050 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5540 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2689 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3820 |
| predicted_H | 0.9560 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0470 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0810 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3439 |
| predicted_R | 0.3910 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5130 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4066 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4140 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1180 | 0.2350 | 0.1689 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 | 0.0050 | 0.0061 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7100 | 3.5540 | 3.6421 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2240 | 0.2689 | 0.2435 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3960 | 0.3820 | 0.3899 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8300 | 0.9560 | 0.8848 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0470 | 0.0470 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.0810 | 0.0861 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3450 | 0.3439 | 0.3445 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4580 | 0.3910 | 0.4288 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4900 | 0.5130 | 0.5000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3730 | 0.4066 | 0.3876 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.3820 | 0.4140 | 0.3959 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 125 |
| Season rows before report date | 125 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 144 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 689414 |
| playerID | 689414 |
| playerName | Liam Hicks |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 9.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.352 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.319 |
| sl_xba | 0.261 |
| sl_xslg | 0.358 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 27.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 84.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 11.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.238 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.269 | 1.000 | -0.269 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.362 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.674 | 4.000 | 0.326 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.278 | 0.250 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.162 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.177 | 0.000 | -0.177 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.054 | 0.000 | -0.054 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.895 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.023 | 1.000 | -0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.105 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.109 | 0.000 | -0.109 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.300 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.312 | 0.250 | -0.062 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.419 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.483 | 1.000 | -0.483 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.476 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.560 | 0.000 | 0.440 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.431 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.440 | 0.500 | -0.190 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.752 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.760 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.3620 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.6380, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.4190 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4190, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3620 -> 3.4373 (boost 0.0753, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4569 -> 0.4512 (deboost -0.0057, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.4373 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5627, better) | predicted_2B: 0.2461 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2461, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.039 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4455 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4455, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.2353 (boost 0.2353, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5516 (deboost -0.4484, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | predicted_2B: 0.1885 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8115, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2353 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2353, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4070 -> 0.4380 (boost 0.0310, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "676356",
"player_name": "Jonny DeLuca",
"position": "CF",
"team": "TB",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.238,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.362,
"predicted_AVG": 0.266,
"predicted_BB": 0.162,
"predicted_H": 0.895,
"predicted_HR": 0.105,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3,
"predicted_R": 0.419,
"predicted_RBI": 0.476,
"predicted_SLG": 0.431,
"predicted_SO": 0.752
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2461,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.4373,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2678,
"predicted_BB": 0.1787,
"predicted_H": 0.9211,
"predicted_HBP": 0.002,
"predicted_HR": 0.135,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3042,
"predicted_R": 0.4562,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4953,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4569,
"predicted_SO": 0.7713
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.362,
"after": 3.4373,
"delta": 0.0753,
"percent_delta": 0.0224,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.431,
"after": 0.4569,
"delta": 0.0259,
"percent_delta": 0.0601,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.362,
"after": 3.4373,
"delta": 0.0753,
"percent_delta": 0.0224,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 105
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.4373,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2638,
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"predicted_H": 0.9068,
"predicted_HBP": 0.002,
"predicted_HR": 0.1324,
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"predicted_R": 0.4455,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4837,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4512,
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},
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},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.039",
"stats": {
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},
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},
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222)",
"stats": {
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},
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},
"weights": {
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"bvp": 0.0923
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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},
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},
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},
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}
],
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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}
],
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.253,
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"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.438,
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},
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},
{
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"delta": 0.019,
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter",
"stats": {},
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"summary": {
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}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"before": 1.0,
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"delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.253,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
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"predicted_H": 1.0,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.308,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.438,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 1.0
},
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}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
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},
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},
{
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"delta": 0.105,
"percent_delta": 0.1173,
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0267,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.419,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.419,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.476,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.524,
"percent_delta": 1.1008,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.431,
"after": 0.438,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0162,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.752,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.248,
"percent_delta": 0.3298,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.638,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.419,
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.238 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.362 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.162 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.895 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.105 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.300 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.419 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.476 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.431 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.752 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.246 | 0.008 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.437 | 0.075 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.268 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.179 | 0.017 |
| predicted_H | 0.921 | 0.026 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.135 | 0.030 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.304 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.456 | 0.037 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.495 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.457 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 0.771 | 0.019 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.246 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.179 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.907 | -0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.132 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.300 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.446 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.484 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.451 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.771 | 0.000 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.039
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.189 | 0.189 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.235 | 0.235 |
| H | 0.837 | -0.163 |
| HR | 0.132 | 0.132 |
| RBI | 0.552 | -0.448 |
| SO | 0.993 | -0.007 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.811 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.235 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.235 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.163 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.132 |
| OBP | 0.289 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.448 |
| SLG | 0.407 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.007 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 1.000 | 0.754 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.563 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | -0.029 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.179 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.093 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.132 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.446 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.516 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.407 | -0.044 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.229 |
KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.253 | 0.018 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.308 | 0.019 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.438 | 0.031 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3000 | 0.6316 | 0.2632 | 0.1053 | 0.1579 | 0.0526 | 0.1579 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 11.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 11.000 | 0.2973 | 0.3500 | 0.5676 | 0.2973 | 0.0541 | 0.1622 | 0.0811 | 0.2973 |
| season | 0.60 | 105 | - | 353.000 | 94.000 | 25.000 | 0.000 | 11.000 | 50.000 | 44.000 | 17.000 | 79.000 | 0.2663 | 0.3000 | 0.4306 | 0.2663 | 0.0312 | 0.1416 | 0.0482 | 0.2238 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2570 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5380 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2701 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2010 |
| predicted_H | 0.9560 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1750 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3097 |
| predicted_R | 0.5060 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5210 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4914 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7970 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2380 | 0.2570 | 0.2461 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3620 | 3.5380 | 3.4373 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2660 | 0.2701 | 0.2678 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1620 | 0.2010 | 0.1787 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8950 | 0.9560 | 0.9211 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1050 | 0.1750 | 0.1350 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3000 | 0.3097 | 0.3042 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4190 | 0.5060 | 0.4562 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4760 | 0.5210 | 0.4953 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4310 | 0.4914 | 0.4569 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7520 | 0.7970 | 0.7713 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 350 |
| Season rows before report date | 350 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 105 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 676356 |
| playerID | 676356 |
| playerName | Jonny DeLuca |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.317 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.261 |
| sl_xba | 0.232 |
| sl_xslg | 0.325 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 30.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.130 | 0.000 | -0.130 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 | -0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.933 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.161 | 4.000 | -0.161 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.262 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.245 | 0.250 | -0.245 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.383 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.464 | 0.000 | 0.536 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.052 | 0.000 | -0.052 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.720 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.775 | 1.000 | -0.775 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.101 | 0.000 | -0.101 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.338 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.346 | 0.250 | -0.096 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.495 | 0.000 | -0.495 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.600 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.521 | 2.000 | -0.521 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.142 | 0.000 | -0.142 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.385 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.397 | 0.250 | -0.397 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.575 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.627 | 1.000 | 0.373 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3830 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6170, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 2.9330 -> 2.9854 (boost 0.0524, better) | predicted_R: 0.4000 -> 0.3480 (deboost -0.0520, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2597 -> 0.2465 (deboost -0.0132, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_SO: 0.5634 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4366, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.3839 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3839, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.021 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3398 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3398, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3453 (boost 0.3453, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5110 (deboost -0.4890, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8 | predicted_SO: 0.7384 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2616, worse) | predicted_H: 0.7025 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7025, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "680700",
"player_name": "Richie Palacios",
"position": "2B",
"team": "TB",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.125,
"predicted_3B": 0.017,
"predicted_AB": 2.933,
"predicted_AVG": 0.262,
"predicted_BB": 0.383,
"predicted_H": 0.72,
"predicted_HR": 0.07,
"predicted_OBP": 0.338,
"predicted_R": 0.4,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6,
"predicted_SLG": 0.385,
"predicted_SO": 0.575
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.162,
"predicted_3B": 0.0144,
"predicted_AB": 2.9854,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2597,
"predicted_BB": 0.3839,
"predicted_H": 0.7475,
"predicted_HBP": 0.021,
"predicted_HR": 0.064,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3402,
"predicted_R": 0.348,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6417,
"predicted_SLG": 0.386,
"predicted_SO": 0.5634
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.933,
"after": 2.9854,
"delta": 0.0524,
"percent_delta": 0.0179,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.348,
"delta": -0.052,
"percent_delta": -0.13,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.933,
"after": 2.9854,
"delta": 0.0524,
"percent_delta": 0.0179,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.348,
"delta": -0.052,
"percent_delta": -0.13,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 120
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.162,
"predicted_3B": 0.0144,
"predicted_AB": 2.9854,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2465,
"predicted_BB": 0.3839,
"predicted_H": 0.7359,
"predicted_HBP": 0.021,
"predicted_HR": 0.0628,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3324,
"predicted_R": 0.3398,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6266,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3735,
"predicted_SO": 0.5634
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2597,
"after": 0.2465,
"delta": -0.0132,
"percent_delta": -0.0508,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3402,
"after": 0.3324,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.0229,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.386,
"after": 0.3735,
"delta": -0.0125,
"percent_delta": -0.0324,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2597,
"after": 0.2465,
"delta": -0.0132,
"percent_delta": -0.0508,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.021",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
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},
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{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.237,
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter",
"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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},
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}
],
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}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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},
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"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
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"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": 0.0442,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.933 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.262 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.383 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.720 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.338 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.600 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.385 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.575 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.162 | 0.037 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 2.985 | 0.052 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.384 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.748 | 0.028 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.021 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.064 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.340 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.348 | -0.052 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.642 | 0.042 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.386 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.563 | -0.012 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.162 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.985 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | -0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.384 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.736 | -0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.063 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.332 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.340 | -0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.627 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.373 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.563 | 0.000 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.021
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.134 | 0.134 |
| 3B | 0.017 | 0.017 |
| BB | 0.345 | 0.345 |
| H | 0.703 | -0.297 |
| HR | 0.106 | 0.106 |
| RBI | 0.511 | -0.489 |
| SO | 0.738 | -0.262 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.134 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.017 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.221 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.345 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.703 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.106 |
| OBP | 0.303 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.511 |
| SLG | 0.374 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.262 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.162 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.015 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | -0.025 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.384 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.736 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.063 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | -0.029 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.340 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.627 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.374 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.437 |
KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.237 | 0.016 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.322 | 0.019 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.402 | 0.028 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.3125 | 0.3889 | 0.4375 | 0.3125 | 0.0000 | 0.3750 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 30.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 0.2667 | 0.3529 | 0.3667 | 0.2667 | 0.0000 | 0.3000 | 0.1333 | 0.1667 |
| season | 0.60 | 120 | - | 352.000 | 83.000 | 15.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 59.000 | 48.000 | 46.000 | 69.000 | 0.2358 | 0.3292 | 0.3750 | 0.2358 | 0.0284 | 0.1676 | 0.1307 | 0.1960 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2110 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0110 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0550 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2567 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3850 |
| predicted_H | 0.7840 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0210 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0560 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3431 |
| predicted_R | 0.2790 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6970 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3873 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1250 | 0.2110 | 0.1620 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 | 0.0110 | 0.0144 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.9330 | 3.0550 | 2.9854 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2620 | 0.2567 | 0.2597 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3830 | 0.3850 | 0.3839 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7200 | 0.7840 | 0.7475 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0210 | 0.0210 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0700 | 0.0560 | 0.0640 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3380 | 0.3431 | 0.3402 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4000 | 0.2790 | 0.3480 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6000 | 0.6970 | 0.6417 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3850 | 0.3873 | 0.3860 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5750 | 0.5480 | 0.5634 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 386 |
| Season rows before report date | 386 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 120 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 680700 |
| playerID | 680700 |
| playerName | Richie Palacios |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.316 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.306 |
| sl_xba | 0.243 |
| sl_xslg | 0.334 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 28.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.141 | 0.000 | -0.141 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | -0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.134 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.222 | 4.000 | 0.778 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.194 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.220 | 0.000 | -0.220 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.378 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.405 | 0.000 | -0.405 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.560 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.710 | 0.000 | -0.710 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.019 | 0.000 | -0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.291 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.309 | 0.000 | -0.309 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.496 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.527 | 0.000 | -0.527 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.260 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.328 | 0.000 | -0.328 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.272 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.293 | 0.000 | -0.293 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.899 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.932 | 1.000 | 0.068 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.1340 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.8660, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.5600 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.5600 -> 0.6358 (boost 0.0758, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2961 -> 0.2792 (deboost -0.0169, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.6259 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3741, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3664 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3664, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.008 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.400) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5294 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4706, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3754 (boost 0.3754, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6940 (deboost -0.3060, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.9279 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0721, worse) | predicted_H: 0.6940 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6940, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3290 -> 0.2960 (deboost -0.0330, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "670764",
"player_name": "Taylor Walls",
"position": "SS",
"team": "TB",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.143,
"predicted_3B": 0.017,
"predicted_AB": 3.134,
"predicted_AVG": 0.194,
"predicted_BB": 0.378,
"predicted_H": 0.56,
"predicted_HR": 0.03,
"predicted_OBP": 0.291,
"predicted_R": 0.496,
"predicted_RBI": 0.26,
"predicted_SLG": 0.272,
"predicted_SO": 0.899
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1671,
"predicted_3B": 0.0144,
"predicted_AB": 3.1878,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2077,
"predicted_BB": 0.3664,
"predicted_H": 0.6358,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.0244,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2961,
"predicted_R": 0.5421,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2764,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2882,
"predicted_SO": 0.9223
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.134,
"after": 3.1878,
"delta": 0.0538,
"percent_delta": 0.0172,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.194,
"after": 0.2077,
"delta": 0.0137,
"percent_delta": 0.0706,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.56,
"after": 0.6358,
"delta": 0.0758,
"percent_delta": 0.1354,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.2961,
"delta": 0.0051,
"percent_delta": 0.0175,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.272,
"after": 0.2882,
"delta": 0.0162,
"percent_delta": 0.0596,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.56,
"after": 0.6358,
"delta": 0.0758,
"percent_delta": 0.1354,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 119
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1671,
"predicted_3B": 0.0144,
"predicted_AB": 3.1878,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1964,
"predicted_BB": 0.3664,
"predicted_H": 0.6259,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.0239,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2792,
"predicted_R": 0.5294,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2699,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2803,
"predicted_SO": 0.9223
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2077,
"after": 0.1964,
"delta": -0.0113,
"percent_delta": -0.0544,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2961,
"after": 0.2792,
"delta": -0.0169,
"percent_delta": -0.0571,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2882,
"after": 0.2803,
"delta": -0.0079,
"percent_delta": -0.0274,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2961,
"after": 0.2792,
"delta": -0.0169,
"percent_delta": -0.0571,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.008",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1671,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1671,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.1878,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.1878,
"percent_delta": -0.0589,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3664,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3664,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6259,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3741,
"percent_delta": 0.5977,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2699,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2699,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9223,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0777,
"percent_delta": 0.0842,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.400)",
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"weights": {
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}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
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{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
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},
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{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
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},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.237,
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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},
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},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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},
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"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
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},
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],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
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],
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.134 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.194 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.378 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.560 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.291 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.496 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.272 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.899 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | 0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.188 | 0.054 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | 0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.366 | -0.012 |
| predicted_H | 0.636 | 0.076 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.024 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.542 | 0.046 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.276 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.288 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.922 | 0.023 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.188 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.196 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.366 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.626 | -0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.024 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.279 | -0.017 |
| predicted_R | 0.529 | -0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.270 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.280 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.922 | 0.000 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.008
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.400)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.161 | 0.161 |
| 3B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.375 | 0.375 |
| H | 0.694 | -0.306 |
| HR | 0.056 | 0.056 |
| RBI | 0.355 | 0.355 |
| SO | 0.928 | -0.072 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.161 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.221 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.375 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.694 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.056 |
| OBP | 0.309 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.355 |
| SLG | 0.335 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.072 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.167 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.188 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | 0.025 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.366 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.626 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.024 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | 0.030 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.471 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.270 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.335 | 0.055 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.078 |
KPI club run ratio x1.154 applied to runs and RBI, x1.074 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.237 | 0.016 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.329 | 0.020 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.360 | 0.025 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3000 | 0.3684 | 0.2632 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.0526 | 0.3158 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 29.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 0.2069 | 0.3030 | 0.2759 | 0.2069 | 0.0000 | 0.1035 | 0.1379 | 0.3103 |
| season | 0.60 | 119 | - | 373.000 | 81.000 | 17.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 36.000 | 59.000 | 45.000 | 107.000 | 0.2172 | 0.3035 | 0.2895 | 0.2172 | 0.0054 | 0.0965 | 0.1206 | 0.2869 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1990 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0110 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2590 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2259 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3510 |
| predicted_H | 0.7360 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0170 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3029 |
| predicted_R | 0.6030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2980 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3095 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9530 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1430 | 0.1990 | 0.1671 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 | 0.0110 | 0.0144 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1340 | 3.2590 | 3.1878 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1940 | 0.2259 | 0.2077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3780 | 0.3510 | 0.3664 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.5600 | 0.7360 | 0.6358 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0170 | 0.0170 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 | 0.0170 | 0.0244 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2910 | 0.3029 | 0.2961 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4960 | 0.6030 | 0.5421 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2600 | 0.2980 | 0.2764 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2720 | 0.3095 | 0.2882 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8990 | 0.9530 | 0.9223 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 427 |
| Season rows before report date | 427 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 119 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670764 |
| playerID | 670764 |
| playerName | Taylor Walls |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.278 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.251 |
| sl_xba | 0.19 |
| sl_xslg | 0.261 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 21.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 19.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.839 | 1.000 | 1.161 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | -2.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_H | 5.516 | 7.000 | -1.516 | -3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.100 | 4.100 | 4.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.671 | 2.200 | -1.571 | 1.900 |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_SO | 3.516 | 1.000 | 0.484 | 3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 5 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 8.0000 -> 4.0000 (deboost -4.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | - | predicted_ER: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 8 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score |
| 9 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | - | predicted_H: 8.0000 -> 4.0000 (deboost -4.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 10 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "607259",
"player_name": "Nick Martinez",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "TB",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 4.0,
"predicted_H": 8.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.6667,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 8.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.1,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.3333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -4.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.2,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -1.1,
"percent_delta": -0.2115,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.3333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -4.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.1,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -4.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -1.5667,
"percent_delta": -0.2765,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.3333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -4.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 8.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 8.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | -0.467 |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | 0.000 |
Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 2.000 | - |
| BF | 19.000 | - |
| ER | 2.000 | - |
| H | 4.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 4.100 | - |
| Pitches | 80.000 | - |
| R | 2.000 | - |
| SO | 4.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 26.100 | 11.000 | 24.000 | 4.000 | 18.000 | 4.000 | 3.7595 | 1.0633 | 0.4177 | 0.9114 | 0.1519 | 0.6835 | 0.1519 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 56.200 | 24.000 | 55.000 | 6.000 | 40.000 | 7.000 | 3.8118 | 1.0765 | 0.4235 | 0.9706 | 0.1059 | 0.7059 | 0.1235 |
| season | 0.20 | 31 | 180.000 | 62.000 | 171.000 | 26.000 | 109.000 | 22.000 | 3.1000 | 1.0944 | 0.3444 | 0.9500 | 0.1444 | 0.6056 | 0.1222 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.9330 |
| predicted_ER | 2.3270 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.7818 |
| predicted_H | 5.2390 |
| predicted_HR | 0.7630 |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.9410 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1146 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 0.9330 | 1.3691 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 4.0000 | 2.3270 | 3.0107 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.7818 | 3.7818 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 8.0000 | 5.2390 | 6.3674 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 2.0000 | 0.7630 | 1.2685 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 6.0000 | 3.9410 | 4.7825 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1146 | 1.1146 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 31 |
| Season rows before report date | 31 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 31 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 4.1 |
| H | 4 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 4 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 19 |
| Pitches | 80 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 16 |
| Pitching_ER | 4 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.10 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 4 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 7 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 2.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 50 |
| Pitching_R | 4 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 35 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 1 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260927_TB@PHI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 607259 |
| playerID | 607259 |
| playerName | Nick Martinez |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.295 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.307 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 17.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.9 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.759860346 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.176832266 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.163 | 1.000 | -0.163 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.209 | 0.000 | -0.209 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.581 | 0.000 | -0.581 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.777 | 0.100 | -0.577 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.047 | 0.000 | -0.047 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 3 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "592155",
"player_name": "Cam Booser",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "TB",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 2.000 | - |
| ER | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 0.200 | - |
| Pitches | 12.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 3.100 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.6000 | 0.0000 | 0.3000 | 0.3000 | 0.9000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 7.100 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.4091 | 0.0000 | 0.2727 | 0.1364 | 0.8182 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 43 | 41.100 | 9.000 | 25.000 | 7.000 | 45.000 | 5.000 | 1.9597 | 0.7742 | 0.2177 | 0.6048 | 0.1694 | 1.0887 | 0.1210 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1960 |
| predicted_ER | 0.1540 |
| predicted_ERA | 1.9555 |
| predicted_H | 0.4150 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0500 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6510 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.8627 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.1960 | 0.6029 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.1540 | 0.0761 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 1.9555 | 1.9555 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.4150 | 0.7111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.0247 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.6510 | 0.8276 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.8627 | 0.8627 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 43 |
| Season rows before report date | 43 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 43 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.2 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 2 |
| Pitches | 12 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 2 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 8 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 4 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 592155 |
| playerID | 592155 |
| playerName | Cam Booser |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.222 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.252 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 55.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 81.083061042 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.197371771 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | -0.328 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.149 | 0.000 | -0.149 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.522 | 0.000 | 0.478 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.936 | 1.000 | 0.064 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.970 | 0.000 | 0.030 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "641329",
"player_name": "Bryan Baker",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "TB",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"better_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
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"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {
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"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
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}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
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"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
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],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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],
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"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 4.000 | - |
| ER | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 1.000 | - |
| Pitches | 16.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.8000 | 0.0000 | 0.6000 | 0.2000 | 0.6000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.100 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.7742 | 0.0000 | 0.4839 | 0.2903 | 0.4839 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 65 | 64.100 | 9.000 | 34.000 | 20.000 | 65.000 | 4.000 | 1.2591 | 0.8394 | 0.1399 | 0.5285 | 0.3109 | 1.0104 | 0.0622 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2880 |
| predicted_ER | 0.1610 |
| predicted_ERA | 1.4478 |
| predicted_H | 0.6650 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0500 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7210 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.9539 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.2880 | 0.6195 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.1610 | 0.0860 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 1.4478 | 1.4478 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.6650 | 0.8210 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.0267 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.7210 | 0.3853 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.9539 | 0.9539 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 67 |
| Season rows before report date | 67 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 65 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 9 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 6 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 641329 |
| playerID | 641329 |
| playerName | Bryan Baker |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.231 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.272 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.996232987 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.55885961 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.333 | 1.000 | -0.333 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.529 | 0.000 | 1.471 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_H | 1.039 | 1.000 | 2.961 | 3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 2.200 | 2.200 | 2.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.018 | 1.000 | 1.182 | 1.200 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.098 | 2.000 | 0.902 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 5 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 4.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | pitcher_quality_run_redistribution | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | predicted_ER: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Runs moved off a protected strong starter and assigned to bullpen exposure to keep team totals coherent. |
| 8 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 3.0000, worse) | - | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 9 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "642121",
"player_name": "Cole Sulser",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "TB",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
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}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
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"stats": {},
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"summary": {
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"weights": {
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"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
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"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "pitcher_quality_run_redistribution",
"description": "Runs moved off a protected strong starter and assigned to bullpen exposure to keep team totals coherent.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
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"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 2.2,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
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},
{
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"delta": 3.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 10.0,
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},
{
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],
"summary": {
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"delta": 3.0,
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
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"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
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"predicted_H": 4.0,
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"predicted_IP": 2.2,
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},
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],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 4.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 2.2,
"delta": 1.5333,
"percent_delta": 2.3,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 4.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Runs moved off a protected strong starter and assigned to bullpen exposure to keep team totals coherent.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.200 | -0.467 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 13.000 | - |
| ER | 2.000 | - |
| H | 4.000 | - |
| HR | 1.000 | - |
| IP | 2.200 | - |
| Pitches | 58.000 | - |
| R | 2.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 1.8000 | 1.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.8000 | 0.4000 | 1.2000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 1.8000 | 0.9000 | 0.2000 | 0.6000 | 0.3000 | 0.8000 | 0.1000 |
| season | 0.20 | 50 | 56.100 | 24.000 | 51.000 | 16.000 | 56.000 | 7.000 | 3.8343 | 1.1893 | 0.4260 | 0.9053 | 0.2840 | 0.9941 | 0.1243 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3180 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2930 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.9336 |
| predicted_H | 0.7390 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0780 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8940 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1749 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3180 | 0.1663 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2930 | 0.1532 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.9336 | 2.9336 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.7390 | 0.3865 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0780 | 0.0408 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.8940 | 0.4676 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1749 | 1.1749 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 51 |
| Season rows before report date | 51 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 50 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 2.2 |
| H | 4 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 13 |
| Pitches | 58 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 4.31 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 25 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 16 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 1 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 7 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260926_TB@PHI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 642121 |
| playerID | 642121 |
| playerName | Cole Sulser |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.306 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.321 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.704230875 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.345345975 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Max Fried |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.8585 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0984 |
| Avg Velo | 88.1078 |
| Avg Spin | 2246.8842 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5.1000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 4 |
| Pre BB | 3 |
| Pre SO | 7 |
| Season ERA | 2.7303 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9775 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.6510 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.7330 |
| Last Start IP | 6 |
{
"team": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0233,
"defense_index": 1.2017,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1711
},
"opponent": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 162,
"wins": 98,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.6049,
"runs_scored": 736.0,
"runs_allowed": 650.0,
"run_differential": 86.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.5309,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5432,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.0123,
"offense_index": 1.0128,
"defense_index": 1.118,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
"run_differential": 6.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1543
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0168,
"offense_edge": 0.0233,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0128,
"defense_strength": 0.2017,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.118,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0062,
"run_prevention": 0.981,
"strikeout": 0.9995
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "608331",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608331",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 380.0,
"k_percent": 24.0,
"bb_percent": 7.6,
"woba": 0.245,
"xwoba": 0.246,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 29.8,
"avg_best_speed": 74.5561,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.6087,
"whiff_percent": 25.0,
"swing_percent": 46.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.463,
"command_and_miss": 0.1921,
"regression_edge": -0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 1.8857,
"barrel_edge": 1.0667,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.1571,
"whiff_edge": -0.0286,
"bb_edge": 0.4,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0984
},
"quality_score": 0.8585,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.927,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0097,
"walk_factor": 0.968,
"homer_factor": 0.8118,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "608331",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.927,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 0.927,
"adjusted": 4
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.968,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.82,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 1.0097,
"adjusted": 5
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 52.0,
"ER": 14,
"H": 38,
"BB": 14,
"SO": 53,
"HR": 4,
"ERA": 2.423076923076923,
"WHIP": 1.0,
"K9": 9.173076923076923,
"HR9": 0.6923076923076923,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 3,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-30T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608331",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 71,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 71,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.10778862071564,
"release_spin_rate": 2246.884199292124,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 71,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.10778862071564,
"release_spin_rate": 2246.884199292124,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.1078,
"release_spin_rate": 2246.8842,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0984,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.7025,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 21.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8077,
"prior_weight": 0.1923
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "608331",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 21,
"reference_playing_time": 6.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 28.2,
"ER": 8.0,
"R": 8.0,
"H": 20.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 27.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 109.0,
"Pitches": 435.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 1.6,
"R": 1.6,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 1.2,
"SO": 5.4,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 21.8,
"Pitches": 87.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.5116,
"WHIP": 0.907,
"ER_per_IP": 0.27907,
"H_per_IP": 0.69767,
"BB_per_IP": 0.2093,
"SO_per_IP": 0.94186,
"HR_per_IP": 0.06977
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 52.0,
"ER": 14.0,
"R": 14.0,
"H": 38.0,
"BB": 14.0,
"SO": 53.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 200.0,
"Pitches": 820.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 1.4,
"R": 1.4,
"H": 3.8,
"BB": 1.4,
"SO": 5.3,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 20.0,
"Pitches": 82.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.4231,
"WHIP": 1.0,
"ER_per_IP": 0.26923,
"H_per_IP": 0.73077,
"BB_per_IP": 0.26923,
"SO_per_IP": 1.01923,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07692
}
},
"season": {
"games": 21,
"totals": {
"IP": 118.2,
"ER": 36.0,
"R": 36.0,
"H": 82.0,
"BB": 34.0,
"SO": 110.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 456.0,
"Pitches": 1794.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 1.7143,
"R": 1.7143,
"H": 3.9048,
"BB": 1.619,
"SO": 5.2381,
"HR": 0.2381,
"BF": 21.7143,
"Pitches": 85.4286
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.7303,
"WHIP": 0.9775,
"ER_per_IP": 0.30337,
"H_per_IP": 0.69101,
"BB_per_IP": 0.28652,
"SO_per_IP": 0.92697,
"HR_per_IP": 0.04213
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_ER": 1.834,
"predicted_H": 4.291,
"predicted_BB": 1.531,
"predicted_SO": 5.41,
"predicted_HR": 0.464,
"predicted_ERA": 2.9282,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0329
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4312,
"form_weight": 0.5688,
"form_reliability": 0.8077,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 21.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8077,
"prior_weight": 0.1923
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 5.2,
"final": 5.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.834,
"final": 1.0431,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 4.291,
"final": 3.303,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.531,
"final": 1.7333,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 5.41,
"final": 5.2332,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.464,
"final": 0.2639,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.9282,
"final": 2.9282,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.0329,
"final": 1.0329,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Ryan Weathers |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0108 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0503 |
| Avg Velo | 88.9654 |
| Avg Spin | 2333.7436 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 3.5612 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2158 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.8330 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8330 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0233,
"defense_index": 1.2017,
"current_streak": "W1",
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
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"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1711
},
"opponent": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 162,
"wins": 98,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.6049,
"runs_scored": 736.0,
"runs_allowed": 650.0,
"run_differential": 86.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.5309,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5432,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.0123,
"offense_index": 1.0128,
"defense_index": 1.118,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
"run_differential": 6.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1543
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0168,
"offense_edge": 0.0233,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0128,
"defense_strength": 0.2017,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.118,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0062,
"run_prevention": 0.981,
"strikeout": 0.9995
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "677960",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "677960",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 25.2,
"bb_percent": 6.7,
"woba": 0.306,
"xwoba": 0.319,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6823,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.6018,
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"swing_percent": 44.8
},
"league_medians": {
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"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
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"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
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"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 0.4143,
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"hard_hit_edge": -0.3857,
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"bb_edge": 0.625,
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},
"quality_score": 0.0108,
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"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "677960",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.9991,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 0.9991,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 0.95,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 1.0463,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.028,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 11,
"H": 42,
"BB": 12,
"SO": 39,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 2.121428571428571,
"WHIP": 1.157142857142857,
"K9": 7.5214285714285705,
"HR9": 0.3857142857142857,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 3,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "677960",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 90,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 90,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.96544929273789,
"release_spin_rate": 2333.743615585118,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 90,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.96544929273789,
"release_spin_rate": 2333.743615585118,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.9654,
"release_spin_rate": 2333.7436,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.3595,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
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},
"effective_weights": {
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},
"shrinkage": {
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"prior_size": 5.0,
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},
"role": "pitcher",
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"player_id": "677960",
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"rows_used": 27,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.22222,
"H_per_IP": 0.88889,
"BB_per_IP": 0.27778,
"SO_per_IP": 0.61111,
"HR_per_IP": 0.05556
}
},
"last_10": {
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},
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},
"rates": {
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"HR_per_IP": 0.04286
}
},
"season": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 55.0,
"R": 61.0,
"H": 130.0,
"BB": 39.0,
"SO": 143.0,
"HR": 18.0,
"BF": 574.0,
"Pitches": 2303.0
},
"per_game": {
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"R": 2.2593,
"H": 4.8148,
"BB": 1.4444,
"SO": 5.2963,
"HR": 0.6667,
"BF": 21.2593,
"Pitches": 85.2963
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.2158,
"ER_per_IP": 0.39568,
"H_per_IP": 0.93525,
"BB_per_IP": 0.28058,
"SO_per_IP": 1.02878,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1295
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 1.135,
"predicted_H": 3.45,
"predicted_BB": 1.087,
"predicted_SO": 3.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.297,
"predicted_ERA": 2.7093,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2032
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.416,
"form_weight": 0.584,
"form_reliability": 0.8438,
"adaptive_parameters": {
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},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8438,
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 3.2,
"final": 2.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"final": 1.4948,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"form": 3.45,
"final": 2.8468,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"form": 1.087,
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"form": 3.01,
"final": 2.1739,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.297,
"final": 0.1734,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.7093,
"final": 2.7093,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.2032,
"final": 1.2032,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Paul Blackburn |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1948 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 1.5112 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0522 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.3700 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.2670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
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"offense_index": 1.0233,
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"current_streak": "W1",
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
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},
"available": true,
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},
"opponent": {
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"wins": 98,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.6049,
"runs_scored": 736.0,
"runs_allowed": 650.0,
"run_differential": 86.0,
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"offense_index": 1.0128,
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"current_streak": "L1",
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"losses": 5,
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},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1543
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0233,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0128,
"defense_strength": 0.2017,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.118,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0062,
"run_prevention": 0.981,
"strikeout": 0.9995
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "621112",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621112",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 20.5,
"bb_percent": 9.8,
"woba": 0.259,
"xwoba": 0.296,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.5,
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"avg_best_speed": 75.0557,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4658,
"whiff_percent": 22.8,
"swing_percent": 45.7
},
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"bb_percent": 9.2,
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"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
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"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": -0.2529,
"regression_edge": -1.0571,
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"barrel_edge": 0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3857,
"whiff_edge": -0.3429,
"bb_edge": -0.15,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"quality_score": 0.1948,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9834,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9771,
"walk_factor": 1.012,
"homer_factor": 0.9424,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.037,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "621112",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.9834,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 0.9834,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 1.012,
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},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.9424,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 0.9771,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 0,
"H": 7,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 4,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 1.1818181818181817,
"K9": 3.272727272727272,
"HR9": 0.0,
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"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "621112",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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},
"shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7867,
"prior_weight": 0.2133
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "621112",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 65,
"reference_playing_time": 1.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 6.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 24.0,
"Pitches": 90.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 0.2,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.8,
"Pitches": 18.0
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.7895,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.47368,
"BB_per_IP": 0.31579,
"SO_per_IP": 0.15789,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 11.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 4.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 45.0,
"Pitches": 170.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.1,
"H": 0.7,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 0.4,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.5,
"Pitches": 17.0
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.1818,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.63636,
"BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
"SO_per_IP": 0.36364,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 65,
"totals": {
"IP": 89.1,
"ER": 15.0,
"R": 19.0,
"H": 60.0,
"BB": 34.0,
"SO": 69.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 350.0,
"Pitches": 1293.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.2308,
"R": 0.2923,
"H": 0.9231,
"BB": 0.5231,
"SO": 1.0615,
"HR": 0.1077,
"BF": 5.3846,
"Pitches": 19.8923
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.5112,
"WHIP": 1.0522,
"ER_per_IP": 0.16791,
"H_per_IP": 0.67164,
"BB_per_IP": 0.3806,
"SO_per_IP": 0.77239,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07836
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_ER": 0.169,
"predicted_H": 0.818,
"predicted_BB": 0.5,
"predicted_SO": 0.592,
"predicted_HR": 0.055,
"predicted_ERA": 1.2242,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0617
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4401,
"form_weight": 0.5599,
"form_reliability": 0.7867,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 18.446,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7867,
"prior_weight": 0.2133
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.1,
"form": 1.1,
"final": 1.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.169,
"final": 0.0946,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.818,
"final": 0.458,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.5,
"final": 0.7201,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.592,
"final": 0.7716,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.055,
"final": 0.0308,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2242,
"final": 1.2242,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.0617,
"final": 1.0617,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | John Schreiber |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0926 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.1765 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2032 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9170 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"team": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0233,
"defense_index": 1.2017,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1711
},
"opponent": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 162,
"wins": 98,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.6049,
"runs_scored": 736.0,
"runs_allowed": 650.0,
"run_differential": 86.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.5309,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5432,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.0123,
"offense_index": 1.0128,
"defense_index": 1.118,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
"run_differential": 6.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1543
},
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0168,
"offense_edge": 0.0233,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0128,
"defense_strength": 0.2017,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.118,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0062,
"run_prevention": 0.981,
"strikeout": 0.9995
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "670167",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670167",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 224.0,
"k_percent": 16.3,
"bb_percent": 10.6,
"woba": 0.3,
"xwoba": 0.309,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
"avg_best_speed": 77.8632,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8817,
"whiff_percent": 20.9,
"swing_percent": 44.6
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.1668,
"command_and_miss": -0.6579,
"regression_edge": -0.2571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
"barrel_edge": 0.4667,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0143,
"whiff_edge": -0.6143,
"bb_edge": -0.35,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"quality_score": -0.0926,
"sample_weight": 0.896,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0079,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9483,
"walk_factor": 1.0251,
"homer_factor": 0.9648,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "670167",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0071,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0071,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0225,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9685,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9537,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
},
"club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 2,
"H": 8,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 5,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 1.8620689655172415,
"WHIP": 1.0344827586206897,
"K9": 4.655172413793104,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "670167",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 12.871,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7202,
"prior_weight": 0.2798
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "670167",
"report_date": "20261007",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 68,
"reference_playing_time": 0.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 16.0,
"Pitches": 58.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.2,
"Pitches": 11.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.75,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.75,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 0.75,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 8.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 38.0,
"Pitches": 128.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 0.5,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 12.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.8621,
"WHIP": 1.0345,
"ER_per_IP": 0.2069,
"H_per_IP": 0.82759,
"BB_per_IP": 0.2069,
"SO_per_IP": 0.51724,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 68,
"totals": {
"IP": 62.1,
"ER": 22.0,
"R": 26.0,
"H": 49.0,
"BB": 26.0,
"SO": 42.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 252.0,
"Pitches": 1023.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3235,
"R": 0.3824,
"H": 0.7206,
"BB": 0.3824,
"SO": 0.6176,
"HR": 0.1029,
"BF": 3.7059,
"Pitches": 15.0441
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.1765,
"WHIP": 1.2032,
"ER_per_IP": 0.35294,
"H_per_IP": 0.7861,
"BB_per_IP": 0.41711,
"SO_per_IP": 0.6738,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1123
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_ER": 0.197,
"predicted_H": 0.671,
"predicted_BB": 0.175,
"predicted_SO": 0.585,
"predicted_HR": 0.046,
"predicted_ERA": 2.2209,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0593
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4682,
"form_weight": 0.5318,
"form_reliability": 0.7202,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 12.871,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7202,
"prior_weight": 0.2798
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.2,
"form": 0.2,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.197,
"final": 0.573,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.671,
"final": 1.2933,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.175,
"final": 0.0931,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.585,
"final": 0.3111,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.046,
"final": 0.0245,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.2209,
"final": 2.2209,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.0593,
"final": 1.0593,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.169 | 0.000 | -0.169 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | -0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.480 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.756 | 3.000 | 0.244 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.194 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.209 | 0.000 | 0.041 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.492 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.541 | 0.000 | 0.459 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.020 | 0.000 | -0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.785 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.157 | 0.000 | -0.157 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | 0.400 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.306 | 0.000 | 0.094 | 0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.559 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.598 | 0.000 | 0.402 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.528 | 0.000 | -0.528 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.338 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.390 | 0.000 | -0.140 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.763 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.787 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.4920 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5080, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.4800 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.4800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_AVG: 0.1940 -> 0.1990 (boost 0.0050, better) | predicted_AB: 4.4800 -> 3.9433 (deboost -0.5367, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3280 -> 0.3108 (deboost -0.0172, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.7438 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2562, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4523 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4523, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.022 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.667) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4878 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4878, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 0.6783 (boost 0.6783, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8934 (deboost -0.1066, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 3 | predicted_2B: 0.1913 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8087, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4607 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4607, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2490 -> 0.2210 (deboost -0.0280, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663757",
"player_name": "Trent Grisham",
"position": "CF",
"team": "NYY",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.161,
"predicted_3B": 0.017,
"predicted_AB": 4.48,
"predicted_AVG": 0.194,
"predicted_BB": 0.492,
"predicted_H": 0.87,
"predicted_HR": 0.11,
"predicted_OBP": 0.294,
"predicted_R": 0.559,
"predicted_RBI": 0.47,
"predicted_SLG": 0.338,
"predicted_SO": 0.763
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1311,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 3.9433,
"predicted_AVG": 0.199,
"predicted_BB": 0.4517,
"predicted_H": 0.7817,
"predicted_HBP": 0.002,
"predicted_HR": 0.0974,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2926,
"predicted_R": 0.4923,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4354,
"predicted_SLG": 0.328,
"predicted_SO": 0.7448
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.48,
"after": 3.9433,
"delta": -0.5367,
"percent_delta": -0.1198,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.194,
"after": 0.199,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0258,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 0.7817,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.1015,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.559,
"after": 0.4923,
"delta": -0.0667,
"percent_delta": -0.1193,
"direction": "deboost",
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"percent_delta": 0.1392,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.492,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.508,
"percent_delta": 1.0325,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.13,
"percent_delta": 0.1494,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.11,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.303,
"delta": 0.009,
"percent_delta": 0.0306,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.559,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.441,
"percent_delta": 0.7889,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.47,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.47,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.338,
"after": 0.414,
"delta": 0.076,
"percent_delta": 0.2249,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.763,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.237,
"percent_delta": 0.3106,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.492,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.508,
"percent_delta": 1.0325,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.48,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.48,
"percent_delta": -0.1071,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.480 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.194 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.492 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.559 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.338 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.763 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.131 | -0.030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.943 | -0.537 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.199 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.452 | -0.040 |
| predicted_H | 0.782 | -0.088 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.097 | -0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.293 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.492 | -0.067 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.435 | -0.035 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.328 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.745 | -0.018 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.131 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.943 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.197 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.452 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.777 | -0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.097 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.280 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.488 | -0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.431 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.311 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 0.744 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.022
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.667)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.191 | 0.191 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.411 | 0.411 |
| H | 0.893 | -0.107 |
| HR | 0.154 | 0.154 |
| RBI | 0.461 | 0.461 |
| SO | 0.678 | 0.678 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.809 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.243 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.589 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.107 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.154 |
| OBP | 0.324 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.461 |
| SLG | 0.428 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.322 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 1.000 | 0.869 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.057 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | 0.046 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.548 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.223 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.097 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | 0.044 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.488 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.431 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.428 | 0.117 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.256 |
KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.249 | 0.006 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.331 | 0.007 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.438 | 0.010 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 12.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3077 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0833 | 0.0833 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 30.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 0.1333 | 0.2286 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.1333 | 0.3000 |
| season | 0.60 | 118 | - | 418.000 | 88.000 | 19.000 | 2.000 | 17.000 | 58.000 | 66.000 | 58.000 | 90.000 | 0.2105 | 0.3042 | 0.3876 | 0.2105 | 0.0407 | 0.1388 | 0.1388 | 0.2153 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0920 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2400 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2056 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3990 |
| predicted_H | 0.6660 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0810 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2907 |
| predicted_R | 0.4050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3900 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3150 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7210 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1610 | 0.0920 | 0.1311 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 | 0.0100 | 0.0140 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.4800 | 3.2400 | 3.9433 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1940 | 0.2056 | 0.1990 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4920 | 0.3990 | 0.4517 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8700 | 0.6660 | 0.7817 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1100 | 0.0810 | 0.0974 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2940 | 0.2907 | 0.2926 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5590 | 0.4050 | 0.4923 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4700 | 0.3900 | 0.4354 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3380 | 0.3150 | 0.3280 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7630 | 0.7210 | 0.7448 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 492 |
| Season rows before report date | 492 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 118 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663757 |
| playerID | 663757 |
| playerName | Trent Grisham |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.311 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.337 |
| sl_xba | 0.245 |
| sl_xslg | 0.429 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 45.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 18.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 39.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.156 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 | 0.841 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.050 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.830 | 3.000 | 1.170 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.341 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.271 | 0.667 | -0.071 | -0.467 |
| predicted_BB | 0.571 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.604 | 1.000 | -0.604 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.002 | 0.000 | -0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.380 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.038 | 2.000 | -0.038 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.670 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.269 | 2.000 | -0.269 | -2.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.435 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.375 | 0.750 | -0.175 | -0.550 |
| predicted_R | 0.708 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.720 | 2.000 | -0.720 | -2.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.050 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.681 | 2.000 | 0.319 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.855 | 0.400 | 0.400 | Hitting_SLG | 0.535 | 2.667 | -0.135 | -2.267 |
| predicted_SO | 1.039 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.057 | 0.000 | -0.057 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 4.0500 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.9500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.7080 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7080, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | predicted_R: 0.7080 -> 0.7710 (boost 0.0630, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0500 -> 3.8991 (deboost -0.1509, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.8146 -> 0.8304 (boost 0.0158, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.4335 -> 0.4242 (deboost -0.0093, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_HR: 0.5651 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4349, better) | predicted_BB: 0.5967 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5967, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.335 HR/AB=0.140 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.444) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.7640 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2360, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4586 (boost 0.4586, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.6003 (deboost -0.3997, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | predicted_HR: 0.2578 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7422, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.8304 -> 0.5270 (deboost -0.3034, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.5270 -> 0.5390 (boost 0.0120, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.3550 -> 0.3620 (boost 0.0070, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2690 -> 0.2610 (deboost -0.0080, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "700250",
"player_name": "Ben Rice",
"position": "DH",
"team": "NYY",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.156,
"predicted_3B": 0.026,
"predicted_AB": 4.05,
"predicted_AVG": 0.341,
"predicted_BB": 0.571,
"predicted_H": 1.38,
"predicted_HR": 0.67,
"predicted_OBP": 0.435,
"predicted_R": 0.708,
"predicted_RBI": 1.05,
"predicted_SLG": 0.855,
"predicted_SO": 1.039
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1897,
"predicted_3B": 0.0212,
"predicted_AB": 3.8991,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3382,
"predicted_BB": 0.5959,
"predicted_H": 1.3188,
"predicted_HBP": 0.024,
"predicted_HR": 0.5698,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4335,
"predicted_R": 0.771,
"predicted_RBI": 0.9848,
"predicted_SLG": 0.8146,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.355,
"after": 0.362,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0197,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.539,
"after": 0.533,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.0111,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.355,
"after": 0.362,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0197,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.269,
"after": 0.261,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -0.0297,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.156,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.844,
"percent_delta": 5.4103,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.05,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.95,
"percent_delta": 0.2346,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.341,
"after": 0.261,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -0.2346,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.571,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.571,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.38,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.38,
"percent_delta": -0.2754,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.67,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.67,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.435,
"after": 0.362,
"delta": -0.073,
"percent_delta": -0.1678,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.708,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.708,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.05,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.05,
"percent_delta": -0.0476,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.855,
"after": 0.533,
"delta": -0.322,
"percent_delta": -0.3766,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.05,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.95,
"percent_delta": 0.2346,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.708,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.708,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.156 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.050 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.341 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.571 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.380 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.670 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.435 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.708 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 1.050 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.855 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.039 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.190 | 0.034 |
| predicted_3B | 0.021 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.899 | -0.151 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.338 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.596 | 0.025 |
| predicted_H | 1.319 | -0.061 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.024 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.570 | -0.100 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.433 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.771 | 0.063 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.985 | -0.065 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.815 | -0.040 |
| predicted_SO | 1.054 | 0.015 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.190 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.899 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.336 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.597 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.310 | -0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.565 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.424 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.764 | -0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.976 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.830 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 1.053 | -0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.335 HR/AB=0.140
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.444)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.188 | 0.188 |
| 3B | 0.016 | 0.016 |
| BB | 0.459 | 0.459 |
| H | 0.987 | -0.013 |
| HR | 0.258 | 0.258 |
| RBI | 0.600 | -0.400 |
| SO | 0.871 | -0.129 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.188 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.262 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.541 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.013 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.742 |
| OBP | 0.348 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.400 |
| SLG | 0.527 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.129 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.190 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.021 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.101 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.262 | -0.074 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.403 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.310 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.435 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.348 | -0.076 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.236 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.527 | -0.303 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.053 |
KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.269 | 0.007 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.355 | 0.007 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.539 | 0.012 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 0.5000 | 0.5909 | 1.2778 | 0.5000 | 0.2222 | 0.4444 | 0.2222 | 0.2778 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 14.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 10.000 | 10.000 | 7.000 | 13.000 | 0.3784 | 0.4773 | 0.9459 | 0.3784 | 0.1622 | 0.2703 | 0.1892 | 0.3513 |
| season | 0.60 | 154 | - | 575.000 | 156.000 | 24.000 | 4.000 | 44.000 | 101.000 | 109.000 | 88.000 | 160.000 | 0.2713 | 0.3726 | 0.5565 | 0.2713 | 0.0765 | 0.1757 | 0.1530 | 0.2783 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2330 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7050 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3346 |
| predicted_BB | 0.6280 |
| predicted_H | 1.2400 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0240 |
| predicted_HR | 0.4410 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4316 |
| predicted_R | 0.8520 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.9010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.7627 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0740 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1560 | 0.2330 | 0.1897 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0260 | 0.0150 | 0.0212 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.0500 | 3.7050 | 3.8991 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3410 | 0.3346 | 0.3382 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5710 | 0.6280 | 0.5959 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.3800 | 1.2400 | 1.3188 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0240 | 0.0240 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.6700 | 0.4410 | 0.5698 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4350 | 0.4316 | 0.4335 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.7080 | 0.8520 | 0.7710 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 1.0500 | 0.9010 | 0.9848 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.8550 | 0.7627 | 0.8146 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0390 | 1.0740 | 1.0543 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 636 |
| Season rows before report date | 636 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 154 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.667 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 2 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 8 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 700250 |
| playerID | 700250 |
| playerName | Ben Rice |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.384 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.378 |
| sl_xba | 0.267 |
| sl_xslg | 0.511 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 14.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.173 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.172 | 0.000 | -0.172 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.033 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.210 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.914 | 4.000 | 0.086 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_AVG | 0.296 | 0.000 | 0.204 | 0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.167 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.232 | 0.000 | -0.232 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.990 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_H | 1.159 | 0.000 | 0.841 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.220 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.212 | 0.000 | 0.788 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.167 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.467 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_R | 0.543 | 0.000 | 1.457 | 2.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.580 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.470 | 0.000 | 0.530 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.452 | 1.250 | 1.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.503 | 0.000 | 0.747 | 1.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.667 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.808 | 2.000 | -0.808 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 8 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.4670 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.5330, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6670 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6670, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2350 -> 0.2416 (boost 0.0066, better) | predicted_AB: 4.2100 -> 3.8881 (deboost -0.3219, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2851 -> 0.2722 (deboost -0.0129, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6834 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3166, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.5360 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5360, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.048 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4524 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4524, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.6408 (boost 0.6408, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7473 (deboost -0.2527, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.6408 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3592, better) | predicted_HR: 0.2281 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2281, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "671277",
"player_name": "Luis García Jr.",
"position": "1B",
"team": "NYY",
"steps": [
{
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"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.173,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.173,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.21,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.21,
"percent_delta": -0.0499,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.235,
"after": 0.273,
"delta": 0.038,
"percent_delta": 0.1617,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.167,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.167,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.99,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.01,
"percent_delta": 1.0202,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.78,
"percent_delta": 3.5455,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.283,
"after": 0.315,
"delta": 0.032,
"percent_delta": 0.1131,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.467,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.533,
"percent_delta": 3.2827,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.58,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.42,
"percent_delta": 0.7241,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.452,
"after": 0.511,
"delta": 0.059,
"percent_delta": 0.1305,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.667,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.667,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 8,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.467,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.533,
"percent_delta": 3.2827,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.667,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.667,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.173 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.210 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.167 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.990 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.467 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.580 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.452 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.667 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.144 | -0.029 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 3.888 | -0.322 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.242 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.175 | 0.008 |
| predicted_H | 0.937 | -0.053 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.203 | -0.017 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.457 | -0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.541 | -0.039 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.451 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.684 | 0.017 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.144 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.888 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.175 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.931 | -0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.202 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.272 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | -0.004 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.536 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.446 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.683 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.048
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.175 | 0.175 |
| 3B | 0.021 | 0.021 |
| BB | 0.200 | 0.200 |
| H | 1.031 | 0.031 |
| HR | 0.228 | 0.228 |
| RBI | 0.641 | 0.641 |
| SO | 0.747 | -0.253 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.175 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.021 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.266 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.200 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.031 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.228 |
| OBP | 0.308 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.359 |
| SLG | 0.499 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.253 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.144 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.027 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.112 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | 0.027 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.175 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.069 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.202 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | 0.036 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.464 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.499 | 0.053 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.317 |
KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.273 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| OBP | 0.315 | 0.007 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.511 | 0.012 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2941 | 0.4375 | 0.2500 | 0.0625 | 0.1250 | 0.0625 | 0.1875 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 0.1714 | 0.2162 | 0.2571 | 0.1714 | 0.0286 | 0.0571 | 0.0571 | 0.2571 |
| season | 0.60 | 150 | - | 528.000 | 146.000 | 26.000 | 5.000 | 31.000 | 93.000 | 70.000 | 25.000 | 100.000 | 0.2765 | 0.3081 | 0.5208 | 0.2765 | 0.0587 | 0.1761 | 0.0474 | 0.1894 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1060 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4700 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2501 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1850 |
| predicted_H | 0.8680 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1820 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2879 |
| predicted_R | 0.4430 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4900 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4491 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7070 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1730 | 0.1060 | 0.1439 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0330 | 0.0190 | 0.0269 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.2100 | 3.4700 | 3.8881 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2350 | 0.2501 | 0.2416 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1670 | 0.1850 | 0.1748 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9900 | 0.8680 | 0.9369 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2200 | 0.1820 | 0.2035 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2830 | 0.2879 | 0.2851 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4670 | 0.4430 | 0.4566 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5800 | 0.4900 | 0.5409 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4520 | 0.4491 | 0.4507 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6670 | 0.7070 | 0.6844 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 151 |
| Season rows before report date | 151 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 150 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 2 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 671277 |
| playerID | 671277 |
| playerName | Luis García Jr. |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.355 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.341 |
| sl_xba | 0.276 |
| sl_xslg | 0.486 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 46.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.206 | 0.000 | 0.794 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.650 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.790 | 4.000 | -0.790 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.276 | 0.250 | 0.057 | 0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.436 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.481 | 0.000 | 0.519 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.046 | 0.000 | -0.046 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.060 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.046 | 1.000 | -0.046 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | -0.130 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.277 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.353 | 0.250 | 0.147 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.556 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.597 | 0.000 | 0.403 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.630 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.594 | 0.000 | 0.406 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.377 | 0.667 | 0.667 | Hitting_SLG | 0.447 | 0.250 | 0.220 | 0.417 |
| predicted_SO | 0.647 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.622 | 0.000 | -0.622 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 8 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1880 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8120, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.6500 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.6500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6470 -> 0.6997 (boost 0.0527, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.6500 -> 4.3253 (deboost -0.3247, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.2764 -> 0.2878 (boost 0.0114, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.6191 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3809, better) | predicted_SO: 0.6987 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6987, better) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, weight=0.145, BvP AVG=0.294) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4945 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4945, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 0.6078 (boost 0.6078, worse) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5539 (deboost -0.4461, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 2 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 0.6078 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6078, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4470 -> 0.4580 (boost 0.0110, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3380 -> 0.3100 (deboost -0.0280, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "641355",
"player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
"position": "LF",
"team": "NYY",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.188,
"predicted_3B": 0.023,
"predicted_AB": 4.65,
"predicted_AVG": 0.228,
"predicted_BB": 0.436,
"predicted_H": 1.06,
"predicted_HR": 0.17,
"predicted_OBP": 0.277,
"predicted_R": 0.556,
"predicted_RBI": 0.63,
"predicted_SLG": 0.377,
"predicted_SO": 0.647
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1584,
"predicted_3B": 0.0191,
"predicted_AB": 4.3253,
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{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.65,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.65,
"percent_delta": -0.3548,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.228,
"after": 0.251,
"delta": 0.023,
"percent_delta": 0.1009,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.436,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.564,
"percent_delta": 1.2936,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.06,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.06,
"percent_delta": -0.0566,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.31,
"delta": 0.033,
"percent_delta": 0.1191,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.556,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.444,
"percent_delta": 0.7986,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.63,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.37,
"percent_delta": 0.5873,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.377,
"after": 0.444,
"delta": 0.067,
"percent_delta": 0.1777,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.647,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.647,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 8,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.188,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.812,
"percent_delta": 4.3191,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.65,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.65,
"percent_delta": -0.3548,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.650 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.436 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.060 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.556 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.630 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.377 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.647 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | -0.030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 4.325 | -0.325 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | -0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.372 | -0.064 |
| predicted_H | 0.986 | -0.074 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.165 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.276 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.499 | -0.057 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.625 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.700 | 0.053 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.325 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.372 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.979 | -0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.164 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.288 | 0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.494 | -0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.619 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.386 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.699 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, weight=0.145, BvP AVG=0.294)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.188 | 0.188 |
| 3B | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| BB | 0.379 | 0.379 |
| H | 1.008 | 0.008 |
| HR | 0.170 | 0.170 |
| RBI | 0.554 | -0.446 |
| SO | 0.608 | 0.608 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.188 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.259 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.621 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.008 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.170 |
| OBP | 0.330 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.446 |
| SLG | 0.447 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.608 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.158 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.325 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.259 | 0.033 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.627 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.021 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.164 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.330 | 0.042 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.506 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.381 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.447 | 0.061 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.699 |
KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.266 | 0.007 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.338 | 0.008 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.458 | 0.011 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.1905 | 0.1905 | 0.3333 | 0.1905 | 0.0476 | 0.1905 | 0.0000 | 0.2381 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.1500 | 0.1707 | 0.3000 | 0.1500 | 0.0500 | 0.1500 | 0.0250 | 0.2250 |
| season | 0.60 | 133 | - | 503.000 | 133.000 | 25.000 | 3.000 | 18.000 | 77.000 | 74.000 | 58.000 | 86.000 | 0.2644 | 0.3363 | 0.4334 | 0.2644 | 0.0358 | 0.1531 | 0.1153 | 0.1710 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1200 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9040 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2278 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2890 |
| predicted_H | 0.8890 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1590 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2756 |
| predicted_R | 0.4250 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6180 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3877 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7680 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1880 | 0.1200 | 0.1584 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0230 | 0.0140 | 0.0191 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.6500 | 3.9040 | 4.3253 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2280 | 0.2278 | 0.2279 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4360 | 0.2890 | 0.3720 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0600 | 0.8890 | 0.9856 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1700 | 0.1590 | 0.1652 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2770 | 0.2756 | 0.2764 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5560 | 0.4250 | 0.4990 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6300 | 0.6180 | 0.6248 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3770 | 0.3877 | 0.3817 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6470 | 0.7680 | 0.6997 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 539 |
| Season rows before report date | 539 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 133 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 641355 |
| playerID | 641355 |
| playerName | Cody Bellinger |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.336 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.335 |
| sl_xba | 0.271 |
| sl_xslg | 0.411 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.089 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.092 | 0.000 | -0.092 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.210 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.641 | 4.000 | 0.359 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.226 | 0.000 | 0.024 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.222 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.246 | 0.000 | -0.246 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.980 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.824 | 0.000 | 0.176 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.106 | 0.000 | -0.106 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.274 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.277 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.578 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.570 | 0.000 | -0.570 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.490 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.394 | 0.000 | -0.394 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.391 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.354 | 0.000 | -0.104 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.022 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.035 | 1.000 | -0.035 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SLG: 0.3910 -> 0.4120 (boost 0.0210, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.5780 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5780, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AB: 4.2100 -> 4.0172 (deboost -0.1928, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3933 -> 0.3829 (deboost -0.0104, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.9482 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0518, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4904 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4904, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.037 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5780 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4220, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5145 (boost 0.5145, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.9286 (deboost -0.0714, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 8 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5145 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4855, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2384 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2384, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4260 -> 0.4360 (boost 0.0100, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4360 -> 0.4120 (deboost -0.0240, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "806146",
"player_name": "George Lombard Jr.",
"position": "SS",
"team": "NYY",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.089,
"predicted_3B": 0.022,
"predicted_AB": 4.21,
"predicted_AVG": 0.234,
"predicted_BB": 0.222,
"predicted_H": 0.98,
"predicted_HR": 0.16,
"predicted_OBP": 0.274,
"predicted_R": 0.578,
"predicted_RBI": 0.49,
"predicted_SLG": 0.391,
"predicted_SO": 1.022
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0886,
"predicted_3B": 0.0187,
"predicted_AB": 4.0172,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2386,
"predicted_BB": 0.1943,
"predicted_H": 0.9543,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.1559,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2749,
"predicted_R": 0.5833,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4949,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3933,
"predicted_SO": 1.0363
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.21,
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
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},
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},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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{
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"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
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{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
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},
{
"index": 6,
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"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
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"stats": {
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{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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},
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},
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],
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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},
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"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
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"predicted_TB": 1.0
},
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],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
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}
],
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.089 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.210 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.222 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.980 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.274 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.578 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.490 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.391 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.022 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.089 | -0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.017 | -0.193 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.194 | -0.028 |
| predicted_H | 0.954 | -0.026 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.156 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.275 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.583 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.495 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.393 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 1.036 | 0.014 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.089 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.195 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.948 | -0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.155 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.271 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.578 | -0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.490 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.383 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 1.035 | -0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.037
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.152 | 0.152 |
| 3B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.238 | 0.238 |
| H | 0.929 | -0.071 |
| HR | 0.165 | 0.165 |
| RBI | 0.514 | 0.514 |
| SO | 0.987 | -0.013 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.152 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.246 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.238 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.071 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.165 |
| OBP | 0.297 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.486 |
| SLG | 0.426 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.013 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.089 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.017 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.195 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.052 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.297 | 0.026 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.422 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.510 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.426 | 0.043 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.035 |
KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.253 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.304 | 0.007 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.436 | 0.010 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2105 | 0.2105 | 0.2105 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.0000 | 0.3158 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 12.000 | 0.2821 | 0.2821 | 0.5385 | 0.2821 | 0.0769 | 0.2051 | 0.0000 | 0.3077 |
| season | 0.60 | 45 | - | 164.000 | 40.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 23.000 | 26.000 | 10.000 | 46.000 | 0.2439 | 0.2881 | 0.4085 | 0.2439 | 0.0427 | 0.1402 | 0.0610 | 0.2805 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0880 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7370 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2453 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1540 |
| predicted_H | 0.9170 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1500 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2763 |
| predicted_R | 0.5910 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3967 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0570 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0890 | 0.0880 | 0.0886 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0220 | 0.0140 | 0.0187 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.2100 | 3.7370 | 4.0172 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2340 | 0.2453 | 0.2386 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2220 | 0.1540 | 0.1943 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9800 | 0.9170 | 0.9543 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0160 | 0.0160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.1500 | 0.1559 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2740 | 0.2763 | 0.2749 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5780 | 0.5910 | 0.5833 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4900 | 0.5020 | 0.4949 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3910 | 0.3967 | 0.3933 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0220 | 1.0570 | 1.0363 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 142 |
| Season rows before report date | 142 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 45 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 1 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 806146 |
| playerID | 806146 |
| playerName | George Lombard Jr. |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.303 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.298 |
| sl_xba | 0.24 |
| sl_xslg | 0.388 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 8.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.073 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.069 | 1.000 | -0.069 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.805 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.011 | 3.000 | 0.989 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.193 | 0.333 | 0.057 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.382 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.437 | 0.000 | -0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.660 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.582 | 1.000 | 0.418 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.127 | 0.000 | -0.127 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.339 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.299 | 0.333 | -0.049 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.370 | 0.000 | -0.370 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.460 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.310 | 0.000 | -0.310 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.410 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.343 | 0.667 | -0.093 | -0.417 |
| predicted_SO | 0.854 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.913 | 2.000 | 0.087 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.8050 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.1950, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.4600 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4100 -> 0.4213 (boost 0.0113, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4213 -> 0.3894 (deboost -0.0319, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.6920 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3080, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4562 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4562, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3785 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3785, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3700 (boost 0.3700, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7028 (deboost -0.2972, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 8 | predicted_SO: 0.7986 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2014, worse) | predicted_H: 0.7028 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7028, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4220 -> 0.4330 (boost 0.0110, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3160 -> 0.2950 (deboost -0.0210, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669224",
"player_name": "Austin Wells",
"position": "C",
"team": "NYY",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.073,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.805,
"predicted_AVG": 0.245,
"predicted_BB": 0.382,
"predicted_H": 0.66,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.339,
"predicted_R": 0.333,
"predicted_RBI": 0.46,
"predicted_SLG": 0.41,
"predicted_SO": 0.854
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1129,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 2.826,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2519,
"predicted_BB": 0.4086,
"predicted_H": 0.6965,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.099,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3416,
"predicted_R": 0.382,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4604,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4213,
"predicted_SO": 0.839
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2519,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.0282,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.4213,
"delta": 0.0113,
"percent_delta": 0.0276,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.4213,
"delta": 0.0113,
"percent_delta": 0.0276,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 123
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1129,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 2.826,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2449,
"predicted_BB": 0.4092,
"predicted_H": 0.692,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.0982,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3404,
"predicted_R": 0.3785,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4562,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3894,
"predicted_SO": 0.8378
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2519,
"after": 0.2449,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0278,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4213,
"after": 0.3894,
"delta": -0.0319,
"percent_delta": -0.0757,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4213,
"after": 0.3894,
"delta": -0.0319,
"percent_delta": -0.0757,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.035",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1129,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1129,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
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},
{
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"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)",
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},
{
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"step": "consistency_constraints",
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
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},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
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},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
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},
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},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
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"predicted_C": 0.0,
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},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.073 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.805 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.382 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.660 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.339 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.460 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.410 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.854 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.113 | 0.040 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.826 | 0.021 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.252 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.409 | 0.027 |
| predicted_H | 0.697 | 0.036 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.099 | 0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.342 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.382 | 0.049 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.460 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.421 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.839 | -0.015 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.113 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.826 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.409 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.692 | -0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.098 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.340 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.379 | -0.004 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.456 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.389 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 0.838 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.118 | 0.118 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.333 | 0.333 |
| H | 0.703 | -0.297 |
| HR | 0.154 | 0.154 |
| RBI | 0.370 | 0.370 |
| SO | 0.799 | -0.201 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.118 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.229 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.333 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.703 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.154 |
| OBP | 0.310 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.370 |
| SLG | 0.422 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.201 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.113 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.174 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | -0.016 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.409 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.692 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.098 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | -0.030 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.379 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.456 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.422 | 0.033 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.162 |
KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.234 | 0.005 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.316 | 0.006 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.433 | 0.011 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.3571 | 0.3889 | 0.5000 | 0.3571 | 0.0000 | 0.2857 | 0.1429 | 0.2857 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 27.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 0.3704 | 0.4722 | 0.6667 | 0.3704 | 0.0741 | 0.2222 | 0.2593 | 0.2593 |
| season | 0.60 | 123 | - | 345.000 | 67.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 14.000 | 36.000 | 41.000 | 47.000 | 105.000 | 0.1942 | 0.2932 | 0.3420 | 0.1942 | 0.0406 | 0.1043 | 0.1362 | 0.3044 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1660 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 2.8540 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2610 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4440 |
| predicted_H | 0.7450 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1110 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3451 |
| predicted_R | 0.4470 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4610 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4363 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8190 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0730 | 0.1660 | 0.1129 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.8050 | 2.8540 | 2.8260 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2450 | 0.2610 | 0.2519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3820 | 0.4440 | 0.4086 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6600 | 0.7450 | 0.6965 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0160 | 0.0160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.1110 | 0.0990 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3390 | 0.3451 | 0.3416 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3330 | 0.4470 | 0.3820 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4600 | 0.4610 | 0.4604 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4100 | 0.4363 | 0.4213 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8540 | 0.8190 | 0.8390 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 378 |
| Season rows before report date | 378 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 123 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 1 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669224 |
| playerID | 669224 |
| playerName | Austin Wells |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.281 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.302 |
| sl_xba | 0.211 |
| sl_xslg | 0.363 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 20.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.196 | 0.000 | -0.196 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.018 | 0.000 | -0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.235 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.366 | 3.000 | 0.634 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.264 | 0.333 | -0.014 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.368 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.411 | 0.000 | -0.411 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.062 | 0.000 | -0.062 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.794 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.888 | 1.000 | 0.112 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.029 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.045 | 0.000 | -0.045 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.344 | 0.333 | -0.094 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.353 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.433 | 0.000 | -0.433 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.382 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.482 | 0.000 | 0.518 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.183 | 0.000 | -0.183 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.373 | 0.333 | -0.123 | -0.083 |
| predicted_SO | 0.824 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.817 | 0.000 | 0.183 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.2350 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.7650, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.3680 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3680, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.2350 -> 3.3153 (boost 0.0803, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3220 -> 0.3164 (deboost -0.0056, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.3153 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.6847, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3860 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3860, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.009 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3133 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3133, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4197 (boost 0.4197, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8306 (deboost -0.1694, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 7 | predicted_H: 0.8306 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1694, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4197 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4197, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3600 -> 0.3690 (boost 0.0090, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3110 -> 0.2930 (deboost -0.0180, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "683011",
"player_name": "Anthony Volpe",
"position": "2B",
"team": "NYY",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.176,
"predicted_3B": 0.015,
"predicted_AB": 3.235,
"predicted_AVG": 0.245,
"predicted_BB": 0.368,
"predicted_H": 0.794,
"predicted_HR": 0.029,
"predicted_OBP": 0.322,
"predicted_R": 0.353,
"predicted_RBI": 0.382,
"predicted_SLG": 0.336,
"predicted_SO": 0.824
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1869,
"predicted_3B": 0.0129,
"predicted_AB": 3.3153,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2459,
"predicted_BB": 0.3404,
"predicted_H": 0.8162,
"predicted_HBP": 0.003,
"predicted_HR": 0.0294,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3164,
"predicted_R": 0.3162,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3895,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3367,
"predicted_SO": 0.8817
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.235,
"after": 3.3153,
"delta": 0.0803,
"percent_delta": 0.0248,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.322,
"after": 0.3164,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0174,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.824,
"after": 0.8817,
"delta": 0.0577,
"percent_delta": 0.07,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.235,
"after": 3.3153,
"delta": 0.0803,
"percent_delta": 0.0248,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.322,
"after": 0.3164,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0174,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 68
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1869,
"predicted_3B": 0.0129,
"predicted_AB": 3.3153,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2446,
"predicted_BB": 0.3409,
"predicted_H": 0.811,
"predicted_HBP": 0.003,
"predicted_HR": 0.0292,
"predicted_OBP": 0.315,
"predicted_R": 0.3133,
"predicted_RBI": 0.386,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3352,
"predicted_SO": 0.8805
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.009",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1869,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1869,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.3153,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.6847,
"percent_delta": 0.2065,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3409,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3409,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.811,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.189,
"percent_delta": 0.233,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.386,
"after": 0.0,
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{
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"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)",
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"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
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{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
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{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
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},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
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{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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},
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"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
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},
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],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.235 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.368 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.794 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.029 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.353 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.382 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.824 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.187 | 0.011 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.315 | 0.080 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.340 | -0.028 |
| predicted_H | 0.816 | 0.022 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.003 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.316 | -0.037 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.337 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.882 | 0.058 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.187 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.315 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.341 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.811 | -0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.029 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.313 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.386 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.335 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.880 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.009
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.152 | 0.152 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.311 | 0.311 |
| H | 0.831 | -0.169 |
| HR | 0.085 | 0.085 |
| RBI | 0.420 | 0.420 |
| SO | 0.852 | -0.148 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.152 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.237 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.311 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.169 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.085 |
| OBP | 0.305 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.420 |
| SLG | 0.360 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.148 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.187 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.685 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.237 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.341 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.189 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.029 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.313 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.386 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.360 | 0.025 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.120 |
KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.243 | 0.006 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.311 | 0.006 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.369 | 0.009 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.2353 | 0.2778 | 0.2941 | 0.2353 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.0588 | 0.4118 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3000 | 0.3421 | 0.2632 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.0526 | 0.2632 |
| season | 0.60 | 68 | - | 220.000 | 54.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 26.000 | 24.000 | 25.000 | 56.000 | 0.2455 | 0.3224 | 0.3364 | 0.2455 | 0.0091 | 0.1182 | 0.1136 | 0.2545 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4270 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2471 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3020 |
| predicted_H | 0.8470 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0030 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3086 |
| predicted_R | 0.2650 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3376 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9620 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1760 | 0.2020 | 0.1869 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 | 0.0100 | 0.0129 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.2350 | 3.4270 | 3.3153 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2450 | 0.2471 | 0.2459 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3680 | 0.3020 | 0.3404 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7940 | 0.8470 | 0.8162 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0030 | 0.0030 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0290 | 0.0300 | 0.0294 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3220 | 0.3086 | 0.3164 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3530 | 0.2650 | 0.3162 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3820 | 0.4000 | 0.3895 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3360 | 0.3376 | 0.3367 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8240 | 0.9620 | 0.8817 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 224 |
| Season rows before report date | 224 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 68 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 1 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260929_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 683011 |
| playerID | 683011 |
| playerName | Anthony Volpe |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.297 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.291 |
| sl_xba | 0.232 |
| sl_xslg | 0.334 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.181 | 0.000 | -0.181 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.174 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.288 | 4.000 | 0.712 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.256 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.291 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.351 | 0.000 | -0.351 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.044 | 0.000 | -0.044 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.756 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.841 | 0.000 | 0.159 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.128 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.137 | 0.000 | -0.137 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.302 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.329 | 0.000 | -0.079 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.453 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.472 | 0.000 | -0.472 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.465 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.542 | 0.000 | -0.542 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.414 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.444 | 0.000 | -0.194 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.291 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.336 | 1.000 | 0.664 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.1740 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.8260, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.4650 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4650, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.1740 -> 3.2947 (boost 0.1207, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4140 -> 0.3844 (deboost -0.0296, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.2947 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.7053, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4260 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4260, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4934 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4934, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4894 (boost 0.4894, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8604 (deboost -0.1396, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4894 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4894, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | kpi_run_environment | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 11 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated |
| 12 | play_by_play_realization | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 13 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 14 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2370 (deboost -0.0130, worse) | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "682987",
"player_name": "Spencer Jones",
"position": "RF",
"team": "NYY",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.151,
"predicted_3B": 0.012,
"predicted_AB": 3.174,
"predicted_AVG": 0.238,
"predicted_BB": 0.291,
"predicted_H": 0.756,
"predicted_HR": 0.128,
"predicted_OBP": 0.302,
"predicted_R": 0.453,
"predicted_RBI": 0.465,
"predicted_SLG": 0.414,
"predicted_SO": 1.291
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1383,
"predicted_3B": 0.0103,
"predicted_AB": 3.2947,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2281,
"predicted_BB": 0.2783,
"predicted_H": 0.7501,
"predicted_HBP": 0.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.1174,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2887,
"predicted_R": 0.4979,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4299,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3844,
"predicted_SO": 1.3372
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.174,
"after": 3.2947,
"delta": 0.1207,
"percent_delta": 0.038,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.238,
"after": 0.2281,
"delta": -0.0099,
"percent_delta": -0.0416,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.302,
"after": 0.2887,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -0.044,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.414,
"after": 0.3844,
"delta": -0.0296,
"percent_delta": -0.0715,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.174,
"after": 3.2947,
"delta": 0.1207,
"percent_delta": 0.038,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.414,
"after": 0.3844,
"delta": -0.0296,
"percent_delta": -0.0715,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 86
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1383,
"predicted_3B": 0.0103,
"predicted_AB": 3.2947,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2262,
"predicted_BB": 0.2787,
"predicted_H": 0.7453,
"predicted_HBP": 0.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.1164,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2866,
"predicted_R": 0.4934,
"predicted_RBI": 0.426,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3805,
"predicted_SO": 1.3353
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.035",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1383,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1383,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2947,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.7053,
"percent_delta": 0.2141,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2787,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2787,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7453,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2547,
"percent_delta": 0.3417,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1164,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1164,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.426,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.426,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.3353,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.3353,
"percent_delta": -0.2511,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2947,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.7053,
"percent_delta": 0.2141,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.426,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.426,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0126,
"predicted_BB": 0.2924,
"predicted_H": 0.8604,
"predicted_HR": 0.1561,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4894,
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
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{
"index": 10,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated",
"stats": {},
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},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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"predicted_H": 1.0,
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},
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"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_TB": 1.0
},
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],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
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}
],
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.174 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.291 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.756 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.128 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.302 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.453 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.465 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.414 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.291 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | -0.013 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.295 | 0.121 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.278 | -0.013 |
| predicted_H | 0.750 | -0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.117 | -0.011 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.498 | 0.045 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | -0.035 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.384 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SO | 1.337 | 0.046 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.295 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.279 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.745 | -0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.493 | -0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.426 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.381 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.335 | -0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.163 | 0.163 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.292 | 0.292 |
| H | 0.860 | -0.140 |
| HR | 0.156 | 0.156 |
| RBI | 0.489 | 0.489 |
| SO | 1.244 | 0.244 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.163 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.244 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.292 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.140 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.156 |
| OBP | 0.307 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.489 |
| SLG | 0.430 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.244 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.138 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.705 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.018 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.279 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.255 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.116 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | 0.020 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.507 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.426 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.430 | 0.049 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.335 |
KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.250 | 0.006 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.314 | 0.007 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SLG | 0.440 | 0.010 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Continuous line blended with the props market: model x (market/model) ** w per stat, w fitted on settled props; lineup integers re-allocated
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.1579 | 0.2000 | 0.1579 | 0.1579 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.0526 | 0.4737 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 16.000 | 0.1842 | 0.2250 | 0.2895 | 0.1842 | 0.0263 | 0.0526 | 0.0526 | 0.4210 |
| season | 0.60 | 86 | - | 273.000 | 65.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 11.000 | 40.000 | 39.000 | 25.000 | 111.000 | 0.2381 | 0.3033 | 0.4139 | 0.2381 | 0.0403 | 0.1465 | 0.0916 | 0.4066 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1210 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4590 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2146 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2610 |
| predicted_H | 0.7420 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0100 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1030 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2705 |
| predicted_R | 0.5590 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3820 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3441 |
| predicted_SO | 1.4000 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1510 | 0.1210 | 0.1383 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 | 0.0080 | 0.0103 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1740 | 3.4590 | 3.2947 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2380 | 0.2146 | 0.2281 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2910 | 0.2610 | 0.2783 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7560 | 0.7420 | 0.7501 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0100 | 0.0100 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1280 | 0.1030 | 0.1174 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3020 | 0.2705 | 0.2887 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4530 | 0.5590 | 0.4979 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4650 | 0.3820 | 0.4299 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4140 | 0.3441 | 0.3844 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.2910 | 1.4000 | 1.3372 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 271 |
| Season rows before report date | 271 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 86 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 682987 |
| playerID | 682987 |
| playerName | Spencer Jones |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 36.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.323 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.328 |
| sl_xba | 0.238 |
| sl_xslg | 0.455 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 43.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 15.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 55.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 94.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 20.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 38.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.097 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.114 | 0.000 | -0.114 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.298 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.376 | 0.000 | 0.624 | 4.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.246 | - | -0.246 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.234 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.236 | 0.000 | -0.236 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.082 | 0.000 | -0.082 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.758 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.831 | 0.000 | -0.831 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.113 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.129 | 0.000 | -0.129 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.302 | - | -0.302 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.387 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.439 | 0.000 | -0.439 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.403 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.463 | 0.000 | -0.463 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.362 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.394 | - | -0.394 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.895 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.882 | 0.000 | 0.118 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.2980 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.7020, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7580 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7580, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.8950 -> 0.9455 (boost 0.0505, worse) | predicted_H: 0.7580 -> 0.7032 (deboost -0.0548, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.6987 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3013, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3596 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3596, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.031 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3638 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3638, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3905 (boost 0.3905, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8024 (deboost -0.1976, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.8024 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1976, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3905 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3905, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | kpi_run_environment | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3990 -> 0.4090 (boost 0.0100, better) | - | KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup |
| 12 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter |
| 13 | play_by_play_realization | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score |
| 14 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 15 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "676609",
"player_name": "José Caballero",
"position": "3B",
"team": "NYY",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.097,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.298,
"predicted_AVG": 0.23,
"predicted_BB": 0.234,
"predicted_H": 0.758,
"predicted_HR": 0.113,
"predicted_OBP": 0.281,
"predicted_R": 0.387,
"predicted_RBI": 0.403,
"predicted_SLG": 0.362,
"predicted_SO": 0.895
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0828,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.2958,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2135,
"predicted_BB": 0.2625,
"predicted_H": 0.7032,
"predicted_HBP": 0.029,
"predicted_HR": 0.1031,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2738,
"predicted_R": 0.3671,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3629,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3324,
"predicted_SO": 0.9455
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.2135,
"delta": -0.0165,
"percent_delta": -0.0717,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.758,
"after": 0.7032,
"delta": -0.0548,
"percent_delta": -0.0723,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.281,
"after": 0.2738,
"delta": -0.0072,
"percent_delta": -0.0256,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.362,
"after": 0.3324,
"delta": -0.0296,
"percent_delta": -0.0818,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.895,
"after": 0.9455,
"delta": 0.0505,
"percent_delta": 0.0564,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.895,
"after": 0.9455,
"delta": 0.0505,
"percent_delta": 0.0564,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.758,
"after": 0.7032,
"delta": -0.0548,
"percent_delta": -0.0723,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 124
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0828,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.2958,
"predicted_AVG": 0.212,
"predicted_BB": 0.2629,
"predicted_H": 0.6987,
"predicted_HBP": 0.029,
"predicted_HR": 0.1023,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2702,
"predicted_R": 0.3638,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3596,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3304,
"predicted_SO": 0.9442
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.031",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0828,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0828,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2958,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.2958,
"percent_delta": -0.0898,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2629,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2629,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6987,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3013,
"percent_delta": 0.4312,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1023,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1023,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3596,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3596,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9442,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0558,
"percent_delta": 0.0591,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6987,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3013,
"percent_delta": 0.4312,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3596,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3596,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.9077,
"bvp": 0.0923
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3638,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3638,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.3638,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3638,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.119,
"predicted_3B": 0.0073,
"predicted_BB": 0.2081,
"predicted_H": 0.8024,
"predicted_HR": 0.1223,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3905,
"predicted_SO": 0.8256
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.119,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.2081,
"delta": 0.2081,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8024,
"delta": -0.1976,
"percent_delta": -0.1976,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1223,
"delta": 0.1223,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.3905,
"delta": 0.3905,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8256,
"delta": -0.1744,
"percent_delta": -0.1744,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.3905,
"delta": 0.3905,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 1.0,
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"delta": -0.1976,
"percent_delta": -0.1976,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.246,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.297,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.399,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.119,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.212,
"after": 0.246,
"delta": 0.034,
"percent_delta": 0.1604,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2081,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2081,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8024,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1976,
"percent_delta": 0.2463,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1223,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1223,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2702,
"after": 0.297,
"delta": 0.0268,
"percent_delta": 0.0992,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3905,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3905,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3304,
"after": 0.399,
"delta": 0.0686,
"percent_delta": 0.2076,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8256,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1744,
"percent_delta": 0.2112,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8024,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1976,
"percent_delta": 0.2463,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3905,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3905,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.246,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.297,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.399,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.252,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.303,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.409,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.246,
"after": 0.252,
"delta": 0.006,
"percent_delta": 0.0244,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.297,
"after": 0.303,
"delta": 0.006,
"percent_delta": 0.0202,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.399,
"after": 0.409,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0251,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.399,
"after": 0.409,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0251,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 13,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 14,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"reference_only": true
},
{
"index": 15,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.252,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.303,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.409,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.097,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.097,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.298,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.702,
"percent_delta": 0.2129,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.252,
"delta": 0.022,
"percent_delta": 0.0957,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.234,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.234,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.758,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.758,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.113,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.113,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.281,
"after": 0.303,
"delta": 0.022,
"percent_delta": 0.0783,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.387,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.387,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.403,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.362,
"after": 0.409,
"delta": 0.047,
"percent_delta": 0.1298,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.895,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.105,
"percent_delta": 0.1173,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.298,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.702,
"percent_delta": 0.2129,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.758,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.758,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.097 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.298 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.234 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.758 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.113 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.387 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.362 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.895 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.083 | -0.014 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.296 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.213 | -0.017 |
| predicted_BB | 0.263 | 0.028 |
| predicted_H | 0.703 | -0.055 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.029 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.103 | -0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.274 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.367 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.363 | -0.040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.332 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SO | 0.946 | 0.050 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.083 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.296 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.212 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.263 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.699 | -0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.102 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.270 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.364 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.360 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.944 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.031
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.119 | 0.119 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.208 | 0.208 |
| H | 0.802 | -0.198 |
| HR | 0.122 | 0.122 |
| RBI | 0.391 | 0.391 |
| SO | 0.826 | -0.174 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.246 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.208 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.198 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.122 |
| OBP | 0.297 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.391 |
| SLG | 0.399 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.174 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.083 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.296 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | 0.034 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.263 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.301 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.102 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.297 | 0.027 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.364 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.360 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.399 | 0.069 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.056 |
KPI club run ratio x1.050 applied to runs and RBI, x1.025 to on-base events; integer line re-allocated across the lineup
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| AVG | 0.252 | 0.006 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| OBP | 0.303 | 0.006 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SLG | 0.409 | 0.010 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Market blend not applied: no props for this hitter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the one realized game whose plays produce the published score; identical to the play by play and the box score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 0.0625 | 0.1667 | 0.0625 | 0.0625 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1250 | 0.4375 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 0.1875 | 0.2778 | 0.2812 | 0.1875 | 0.0312 | 0.0938 | 0.1250 | 0.3125 |
| season | 0.60 | 124 | - | 409.000 | 94.000 | 12.000 | 0.000 | 14.000 | 50.000 | 48.000 | 29.000 | 111.000 | 0.2298 | 0.2879 | 0.3619 | 0.2298 | 0.0342 | 0.1222 | 0.0709 | 0.2714 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0640 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2930 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1917 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3000 |
| predicted_H | 0.6310 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0290 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2644 |
| predicted_R | 0.3410 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3100 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2935 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0120 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0970 | 0.0640 | 0.0828 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.2980 | 3.2930 | 3.2958 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2300 | 0.1917 | 0.2135 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2340 | 0.3000 | 0.2625 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7580 | 0.6310 | 0.7032 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0290 | 0.0290 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1130 | 0.0900 | 0.1031 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2810 | 0.2644 | 0.2738 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3870 | 0.3410 | 0.3671 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4030 | 0.3100 | 0.3629 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3620 | 0.2935 | 0.3324 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8950 | 1.0120 | 0.9455 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 449 |
| Season rows before report date | 449 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 124 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 676609 |
| playerID | 676609 |
| playerName | José Caballero |
| pos | SS |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.29 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.278 |
| sl_xba | 0.227 |
| sl_xslg | 0.333 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 25.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 83.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.619 | 1.000 | 1.381 | 2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.714 | 1.000 | 0.286 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_H | 3.905 | 3.000 | 0.095 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.100 | 5.100 | 5.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.495 | 6.000 | -0.395 | -0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | Pitching_SO | 5.238 | 6.000 | 1.762 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 5 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_ER: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 6.0000 -> 5.1000 (deboost -0.9000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 8 | market_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score |
| 9 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | predicted_ER: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | predicted_IP: 6.0000 -> 5.1000 (deboost -0.9000, worse) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 10 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "608331",
"player_name": "Max Fried",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "NYY",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "market_blend",
"description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.1,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.9,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 0.4,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.9,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.1,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.9,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 0.4,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.9,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | 0.000 |
Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 3.000 | - |
| BF | 23.000 | - |
| ER | 2.000 | - |
| H | 4.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 5.100 | - |
| Pitches | 92.000 | - |
| R | 2.000 | - |
| SO | 7.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 28.200 | 8.000 | 20.000 | 6.000 | 27.000 | 2.000 | 2.5116 | 0.9070 | 0.2791 | 0.6977 | 0.2093 | 0.9419 | 0.0698 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 52.000 | 14.000 | 38.000 | 14.000 | 53.000 | 4.000 | 2.4231 | 1.0000 | 0.2692 | 0.7308 | 0.2692 | 1.0192 | 0.0769 |
| season | 0.20 | 21 | 118.200 | 36.000 | 82.000 | 34.000 | 110.000 | 5.000 | 2.7303 | 0.9775 | 0.3034 | 0.6910 | 0.2865 | 0.9270 | 0.0421 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.5310 |
| predicted_ER | 1.8340 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.9282 |
| predicted_H | 4.2910 |
| predicted_HR | 0.4640 |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 5.4100 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0329 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 1.5310 | 1.7333 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 1.8340 | 1.0431 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.9282 | 2.9282 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 4.2910 | 3.3030 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.4640 | 0.2639 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 5.0000 | 5.4100 | 5.2332 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0329 | 1.0329 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 21 |
| Season rows before report date | 21 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 21 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.1 |
| H | 4 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 3 |
| SO | 7 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 23 |
| Pitches | 92 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 22 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.50 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 8 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 6.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 98 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 6 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 62 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 608331 |
| playerID | 608331 |
| playerName | Max Fried |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.245 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.246 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.556119375 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.608685451 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.444 | 1.000 | -1.444 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.037 | 0.000 | -2.037 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 4.815 | 0.000 | -4.815 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.941 | 0.200 | -3.941 | 0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 5.296 | 0.000 | -5.296 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 4 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_ER: 2.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -2.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | - | predicted_ER: 2.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -2.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "677960",
"player_name": "Ryan Weathers",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "NYY",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 3.000 | - |
| ER | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 1.000 | - |
| Pitches | 9.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 18.000 | 4.000 | 16.000 | 5.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 2.0000 | 1.1667 | 0.2222 | 0.8889 | 0.2778 | 0.6111 | 0.0556 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 46.200 | 11.000 | 42.000 | 12.000 | 39.000 | 2.000 | 2.1214 | 1.1571 | 0.2357 | 0.9000 | 0.2571 | 0.8357 | 0.0429 |
| season | 0.20 | 27 | 139.000 | 55.000 | 130.000 | 39.000 | 143.000 | 18.000 | 3.5612 | 1.2158 | 0.3957 | 0.9353 | 0.2806 | 1.0288 | 0.1295 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0870 |
| predicted_ER | 1.1350 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.7093 |
| predicted_H | 3.4500 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2970 |
| predicted_IP | 3.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.0100 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2032 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 1.0870 | 1.0508 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 1.1350 | 1.4948 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.7093 | 2.7093 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 3.4500 | 2.8468 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.2970 | 0.1734 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 3.2000 | 2.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 3.0100 | 2.1739 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2032 | 1.2032 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 27 |
| Season rows before report date | 27 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 27 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 9 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 13 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 677960 |
| playerID | 677960 |
| playerName | Ryan Weathers |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.306 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.319 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.8 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.68228672 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.601750608 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.523 | 0.000 | -0.523 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.231 | 0.000 | 0.769 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.923 | 0.000 | 0.077 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.220 | 1.000 | -0.120 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.062 | 0.000 | -1.062 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 6 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_ER: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | predicted_ER: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "621112",
"player_name": "Paul Blackburn",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "NYY",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| BF | 5.000 | - |
| ER | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HR | 1.000 | - |
| IP | 1.100 | - |
| Pitches | 23.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.100 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.7895 | 0.0000 | 0.4737 | 0.3158 | 0.1579 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.1818 | 0.0000 | 0.6364 | 0.5454 | 0.3636 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 65 | 89.100 | 15.000 | 60.000 | 34.000 | 69.000 | 7.000 | 1.5112 | 1.0522 | 0.1679 | 0.6716 | 0.3806 | 0.7724 | 0.0784 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.5000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.1690 |
| predicted_ERA | 1.2242 |
| predicted_H | 0.8180 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0550 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5920 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0617 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.5000 | 0.7201 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.1690 | 0.0946 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 1.2242 | 1.2242 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.8180 | 0.4580 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0550 | 0.0308 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.5920 | 0.7716 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0617 | 1.0617 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 65 |
| Season rows before report date | 65 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 65 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 23 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 12 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 621112 |
| playerID | 621112 |
| playerName | Paul Blackburn |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.259 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.296 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.055748879 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.465775108 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.308 | 0.000 | 0.692 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.154 | 0.000 | -0.154 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.615 | 0.000 | 0.385 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.892 | 1.000 | 0.208 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.462 | 1.000 | 0.538 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_rate_projection |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 5 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_ER: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_rate_projection | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty |
| 2 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 3 | team_form_adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors |
| 4 | savant_pitcher_quality | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors |
| 5 | opposing_lineup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances |
| 6 | kpi_run_environment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale |
| 7 | play_by_play_realization | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_ER: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play |
| 8 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line) |
{
"trace_version": "1.1",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "670167",
"player_name": "John Schreiber",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "NYY",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_adjustment",
"description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
"description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "opposing_lineup_context",
"description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.15,
"SO": 0.35,
"HR": 0.0
}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "kpi_run_environment",
"description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "play_by_play_realization",
"description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.4333,
"percent_delta": 0.65,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.4333,
"percent_delta": 0.65,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, weighted by plate appearances
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| BF | 6.000 | - |
| ER | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| IP | 1.100 | - |
| Pitches | 25.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.7500 | 0.0000 | 0.7500 | 0.0000 | 0.7500 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.200 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 1.8621 | 1.0345 | 0.2069 | 0.8276 | 0.2069 | 0.5172 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 68 | 62.100 | 22.000 | 49.000 | 26.000 | 42.000 | 7.000 | 3.1765 | 1.2032 | 0.3529 | 0.7861 | 0.4171 | 0.6738 | 0.1123 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1750 |
| predicted_ER | 0.1970 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.2209 |
| predicted_H | 0.6710 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0460 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5850 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0593 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1750 | 0.0931 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.1970 | 0.5730 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.2209 | 2.2209 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 0.6710 | 1.2933 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0460 | 0.0245 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.5850 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0593 | 1.0593 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 13 |
| Season rows before report date | 13 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 68 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 6 |
| Pitches | 25 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 15 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261005_NYY@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670167 |
| playerID | 670167 |
| playerName | John Schreiber |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-10-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.3 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.309 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.86320375 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.8817088 |