Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.
Windows shown explicitly: newly generated team recent form targets the latest 10 games; each game below shows the window actually stored in its artifact. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games.
Savant layers shown explicitly: hitter Statcast quality, pitcher Statcast quality, and pitch movement from embedded data/all_players_stats.csv features.
Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | ATL 3 - 4 LAD | LAD | 0.515 | enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target | True |
| Simulation draw | ATL 3 - 4 LAD | LAD | - | organic_simulation_realized_target | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.5101; empirical=0.5768; weight=0.5000; final=0.5434 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=-13; abs=13; home delta=-0.0750; away delta=0.0750 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=2.2500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=0.5802; recent edge=0.6640; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 6.3000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5149 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_simulation_realized_target |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 3.875 | 5.057 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 4 | 5 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 3 | 4 | 0.5149 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 3 | 4 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 3 | 4 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 3 | 4 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 3 | 4 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.7298553600000002,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.42621015348288077,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5062101534828808,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.3036452065171194,
"confidence": 0.9,
"factors": {
"environmental": 1.05,
"pitcher_form": 1.4520000000000002,
"team_form": 1.08,
"situational": 1.04,
"combined": 1.7124307200000004
},
"prediction": "low_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 7,
"score_scale_mode": "control",
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 6.3,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 6.3,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 7,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
}{
"method": "monotone_reliability_shrinkage",
"policy": "shrink_toward_even_score_floor_v3",
"sample_size": 482,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 482,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 1081,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 1110,
"global_sample_size": 1129,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5768,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.574,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5816,
"raw_pick_probability_unclamped": 0.5816,
"score_probability_conflict": false,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.5073,
"margin_implied_pick_probability": 0.5073,
"score_blend_weight": 0.45,
"blended_raw_pick_probability": 0.5482,
"score_implied_floor_pick_probability": 0.5071,
"max_published_pick_probability": 0.9,
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.581638,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.418362,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.547,
"predicted_side": "home",
"reliability": 0.964,
"shrink_floor": 0.35,
"empirical_penalty": 1.0,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.9766
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.5101,
"sample_size": 482,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5768,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.54345,
"published_confidence": 0.514946,
"published_after_governors": true,
"governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": -13.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
"home_average_margin": -2.6,
"home_run_delta": -0.075,
"away_run_delta": 0.075,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -5.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -5.0
}
],
"adaptive_parameters": {
"h2h.history_limit": 5,
"h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
"h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
"h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
}
}{
"applied": true,
"home": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6172839506172839,
"runs_scored": 801,
"runs_allowed": 600,
"run_differential": 201,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407407407407407,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802469135802469,
"runs_scored": 742,
"runs_allowed": 626,
"run_differential": 116,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.7160493827160493,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.5247,
"win_pct_edge": 0.037,
"quality_edge": 0.6096,
"season_quality_edge": 0.5802,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": 0.5802,
"recent_quality_edge": 0.664,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "aligned",
"blended_quality_edge": 0.6096
},
"margin_adjustment": 0.256,
"reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
"margin_adjustment_policy": {
"adjustment": 0.256,
"cap": 1.4,
"scale": 0.42,
"quality_edge": 0.6096,
"season_quality_edge": 0.5802,
"recent_alignment": "aligned",
"large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
"method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 1.961,
"home_runs": 4.079,
"home_win_probability": 0.6801
}
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.028222820230211776
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.0265181780356338
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 2,
"probability": 0.026307011487808
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.026069515180494638
},
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.02598831593214533
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.0841529373742921,
"1": 0.12208141372398842,
"2": 0.15323247657232358,
"3": 0.1664075752743024,
"4": 0.15635665293570739,
"5": 0.12711026918853163,
"6": 0.08940584509052579,
"7": 0.054409180861758805,
"8": 0.028648340072565028,
"9": 0.013051118710441978,
"10": 0.005144190195562751
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.08767011620706518,
"1": 0.1268741591486834,
"2": 0.15808782409360952,
"3": 0.16960057367394443,
"4": 0.15666062760377497,
"5": 0.12459369260852138,
"6": 0.08531706417814217,
"7": 0.050301321878038256,
"8": 0.025534452110624006,
"9": 0.011160337784586449,
"10": 0.0041998307130102904
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 2.25,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
"applied": true,
"confidence_cap": 0.53,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [
"latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side",
"recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick",
"a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result",
"latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design"
],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"opponent_team": "ATL",
"h2h_net_margin": -3,
"opponent_breakout": false,
"opponent_blowout_win": false,
"split_recent_h2h": false,
"recent_h2h": [
{
"date": "2026-08-27",
"predicted_team_runs": 0,
"opponent_runs": 1,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -1,
"winner": "ATL"
},
{
"date": "2026-08-26",
"predicted_team_runs": 5,
"opponent_runs": 6,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -1,
"winner": "ATL"
},
{
"date": "2026-08-25",
"predicted_team_runs": 3,
"opponent_runs": 4,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -1,
"winner": "ATL"
}
],
"prediction_memory": {
"available": true,
"reason": "verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available",
"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
"verified_outcome_count": 4,
"consecutive_same_pick_count": 1,
"same_pick_actual_loss_count": 2,
"same_pick_blowout_loss_count": 0,
"prior_predictions": [
{
"date": "20261003",
"away": "ATL",
"home": "LAD",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"actual_winner": "LAD",
"actual_margin": 2,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.546692,
"artifact": "20261003_ATL@LAD.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260827",
"away": "LAD",
"home": "ATL",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "ATL",
"actual_winner": "ATL",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.560841,
"artifact": "20260827_LAD@ATL.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260826",
"away": "LAD",
"home": "ATL",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"actual_winner": "ATL",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5486690000000001,
"artifact": "20260826_LAD@ATL.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260825",
"away": "LAD",
"home": "ATL",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"actual_winner": "ATL",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5545089999999999,
"artifact": "20260825_LAD@ATL.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "LAD",
"guardrail_opponent_team": "ATL",
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "LAD",
"output_opponent_team": "ATL",
"simulation_score_winner": "LAD",
"final_score_winner": "LAD",
"pre_simulation_winner": "LAD",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false
},
"hard_flip_suppressed": true,
"flip_authority": "caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only",
"final_prediction_sync": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.073,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.314,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "LAD",
"model_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 6,
"published_winner": "LAD",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
"draw_majority_team": "ATL",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
"winner": "LAD",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"policy": "recency_uncertainty_shrinkage_v2",
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6172839506172839,
"runs_scored": 801,
"runs_allowed": 600,
"run_differential": 201,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407407407407407,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802469135802469,
"runs_scored": 742,
"runs_allowed": 626,
"run_differential": 116,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.7160493827160493,
"available": true
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_margin": 0.1,
"final_margin": 0.1,
"margin_cap": 1.5,
"season_quality_edge": 0.6096,
"reason": "raw target margin within supported range"
}{
"applied": true,
"policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
"raw_confidence": 0.53,
"final_confidence": 0.547,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.547,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.9766,
"hard_maximum": 0.9,
"confidence_floor": 0.505,
"score_gap": 0.1,
"calibration_sample_size": 482,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5768,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.574,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 0.6096,
"reasons": [
"confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
],
"score_coherence": {
"policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"published_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
},
"margin": 1,
"probability_before": 0.547049,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.572388,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.9766,
"side_flipped": false,
"applied": false,
"magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
"probability_after": 0.547049,
"aligned_pick_probability": 0.547049
},
"starter_experience": {
"applied": true,
"min_starter_games": 9,
"per_starter_career_games": {
"605483": 9,
"678061": 10
},
"shrink_factor": 0.8375,
"probability_before": 0.547049,
"probability_after": 0.539404,
"reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
}
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.073,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.314,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "LAD",
"model_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 6,
"published_winner": "LAD",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
"draw_majority_team": "ATL",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
"winner": "LAD",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"confidence": 0.51494642975,
"home_win_probability": 0.51494642975,
"away_win_probability": 0.48505357024999995,
"predicted_score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
"embedded_savant_score_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded temporal Savant features",
"feature_contract": {
"training_grain": "one player-game row after collapsing granular at-bat rows",
"temporal_rule": "all sl_/ab_/sv_ model features are shifted before the predicted game",
"hitter_signals": [
"xwoba",
"xba",
"xslg",
"barrel_batted_rate",
"hard_hit_percent",
"bat_speed",
"launch_quality",
"walk_rate",
"strikeout_rate"
],
"pitcher_signals": [
"xwoba_allowed",
"barrel_allowed",
"hard_hit_allowed",
"whiff_rate",
"command_score",
"movement_score",
"faced_est_woba",
"faced_strikeout_rate"
]
},
"away": {
"team": "ATL",
"original_runs": 3,
"run_delta": -0.289,
"adjusted_runs": 3,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 33.0,
"quality": 0.320458797104143,
"contact": 0.2686809842232322,
"power": 0.4673945699849016,
"discipline": -0.059907249421094946,
"xwoba": 0.32342424242424245,
"recent_xwoba": 0.32342424242424245,
"barrel": 9.509090909090908,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.45435027415690765,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.84172057949537,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2235377370515827,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "686948",
"player_name": "Drake Baldwin",
"position": "C",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 1.0670137986946104,
"contact": 1.1844050142805835,
"power": 1.3539229667299926,
"discipline": 0.06727892513048778,
"xwoba": 0.37,
"recent_xwoba": 0.37,
"barrel": 12.9,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.9952212393617579,
"ab_bat_speed": 74.04242166604175,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.21868489583333334,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "621566",
"player_name": "Matt Olson",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.9823875769794777,
"contact": 0.8519132503761044,
"power": 1.5404711088154983,
"discipline": -0.03793300443300427,
"xwoba": 0.351,
"recent_xwoba": 0.351,
"barrel": 14.199999999999998,
"ab_hard_contact": 1.45856503345283,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.3893757057633,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.24996825396825395,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "660670",
"player_name": "Ronald Acuña Jr.",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.7864013104772382,
"contact": 0.7181224823785824,
"power": 1.0940136878320283,
"discipline": 0.18704187692847501,
"xwoba": 0.366,
"recent_xwoba": 0.366,
"barrel": 13.0,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.6968451852120013,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.83432465277778,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.22835051546391752,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "671739",
"player_name": "Michael Harris II",
"position": "CF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.7018147690819536,
"contact": 0.9391361941788101,
"power": 0.932587260617144,
"discipline": -0.5114590894590894,
"xwoba": 0.342,
"recent_xwoba": 0.342,
"barrel": 10.3,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.8123166409143097,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.34894278169014,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.19970862470862472,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "645277",
"player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.6018908326375971,
"contact": -0.7020806619821718,
"power": -0.7431984876353556,
"discipline": 0.13636064636064646,
"xwoba": 0.273,
"recent_xwoba": 0.273,
"barrel": 3.7999999999999994,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.1750173717547262,
"ab_bat_speed": 67.61933040374987,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.14117460317460317,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "605483",
"player_name": "Blake Snell",
"quality": 0.8382475408702597,
"contact": 1.9573967771886167,
"command": 0.8032682499900546,
"movement": 0.5800024682289082,
"xwoba": 0.228,
"whiff": 34.8,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2648406655555556,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.79124666446208,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.2356947200176367,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006483162950047203
}
},
"home": {
"team": "LAD",
"original_runs": 4,
"run_delta": 0.4298,
"adjusted_runs": 4,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 33.0,
"quality": 0.5360312818932845,
"contact": 0.6623742865635179,
"power": 0.5050040744473899,
"discipline": 0.37142606282669793,
"xwoba": 0.3475454545454546,
"recent_xwoba": 0.3475454545454546,
"barrel": 9.127272727272725,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.27481741968372925,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.97270663019516,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.1860680611674261,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "660271",
"player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
"position": "DH",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 1.4503886004359066,
"contact": 1.4869636165871307,
"power": 1.943627620603825,
"discipline": 0.24233534874159865,
"xwoba": 0.397,
"recent_xwoba": 0.397,
"barrel": 16.4,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.9877905073145921,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.56303624131945,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.23862847222222222,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "669257",
"player_name": "Will Smith",
"position": "C",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 1.0663869410853188,
"contact": 1.1527183909846923,
"power": 1.0268003111223143,
"discipline": 0.9242695045275691,
"xwoba": 0.389,
"recent_xwoba": 0.389,
"barrel": 12.4,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.6097205081605782,
"ab_bat_speed": 68.76802419354838,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.18440860215053764,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "518692",
"player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.6838817384953523,
"contact": 0.947307326704232,
"power": 0.5469193741503438,
"discipline": 0.394883002721031,
"xwoba": 0.363,
"recent_xwoba": 0.363,
"barrel": 8.1,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.31229224491163454,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.18827654817797,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.16743796109993292,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "605141",
"player_name": "Mookie Betts",
"position": "SS",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.5826003159788192,
"contact": 0.7867756217345881,
"power": 0.36930075560252856,
"discipline": 0.8562365482365483,
"xwoba": 0.339,
"recent_xwoba": 0.339,
"barrel": 7.8,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.2547770168124725,
"ab_bat_speed": 68.07022756132757,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.10772727272727273,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "606192",
"player_name": "Teoscar Hernández",
"position": "LF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.34315714947630654,
"contact": 0.32813439212011186,
"power": 0.6723578148113253,
"discipline": -0.46713056679128107,
"xwoba": 0.332,
"recent_xwoba": 0.332,
"barrel": 10.7,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.1966801057503208,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.14743728741497,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.28016581632653065,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "678061",
"player_name": "Ray Kerr",
"quality": 0.07752379696485841,
"contact": 1.1286930971433782,
"command": -0.2948746071528026,
"movement": -0.08766997192106443,
"xwoba": 0.281,
"whiff": 23.4,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2648406655555556,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.79124666446208,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.2356947200176367,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006483162950047203
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": 0.6096,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.314,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.073,
"composite_home_edge": 0.4332,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.5394,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.7,
"winner_support_before_review": 0.4332
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.539404,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.460596,
"confidence_shrinkage": {
"policy": "starter_quality_shrinkage_v3",
"staged_confidence": 0.539404,
"discount_factor": 0.379312,
"published_confidence": 0.514946,
"guardrail_confidence_cap": 0.53,
"guardrail_cap_enforced": false,
"applied_discounts": [
{
"reason": "opposing_starter_is_elite",
"factor": 0.7
},
{
"reason": "starter_quality_favours_the_other_side",
"factor": 0.75
},
{
"reason": "projected_margin_is_one_run",
"factor": 0.85
},
{
"reason": "matchup_recency_guardrail",
"factor": 0.85
}
]
},
"score_probability_reconciliation": {
"policy": "published_probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"incoming_home_win_probability": 0.7,
"incoming_favoured_side": "home",
"score_winner_side": "home",
"published_home_win_probability": 0.514946,
"probability_side_reverted_by_score": false,
"note": "The probability and the projected score agree on the winner."
},
"confidence_note": "Probability shrunk toward even by starter-quality and guardrail discounts; no per-game clamp is applied. Discounts: opposing_starter_is_elite x0.70, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side x0.75, projected_margin_is_one_run x0.85, matchup_recency_guardrail x0.85.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"predicted_score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
"confidence": 0.51494642975,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.073,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.314,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "LAD",
"model_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 6,
"published_winner": "LAD",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
"draw_majority_team": "ATL",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
"winner": "LAD",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "LAD",
"display_confidence": 0.5149,
"internal_signal_score": 0.547,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.5149,
"confidence_compression_detected": false,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
"totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 0.664,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.073,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 4,
"median": 8,
"max": 9,
"range": 5
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away ATL | True | 1.0385 | 1.0385 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home LAD | True | 1.0614 | 1.0614 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | - | 1.0946 | 1.2607 | neutral | 0.3660 | 0.2610 | 0.4950 | 13 | 43.50 | 89.60 | 15.70 | 29 | 22 | 11.30 | 0.5143 |
| 2B | Ozzie Albies | - | 0.9552 | -0.5967 | neutral | 0.2730 | 0.2210 | 0.3370 | 3.80 | 27.70 | 87.10 | 17.80 | 21.20 | 15.40 | 6.70 | -0.7143 |
| SS | Mauricio Dubón | - | 0.9974 | -0.0343 | neutral | 0.3040 | 0.2680 | 0.3750 | 4 | 29.40 | 86.50 | 16.10 | 15.30 | 11.80 | 5.70 | -0.3714 |
| 1B | Matt Olson | - | 1.0899 | 1.1980 | neutral | 0.3510 | 0.2470 | 0.5030 | 14.20 | 52 | 92.50 | 18.10 | 25.40 | 24.50 | 9.20 | 0 |
| C | Drake Baldwin | - | 1.1093 | 1.4576 | neutral | 0.3700 | 0.2790 | 0.5050 | 12.90 | 50.60 | 91.50 | 11 | 24.40 | 21.50 | 8.90 | 0.3429 |
| DH | Sean Murphy | - | 0.9903 | -0.1298 | neutral | 0.2730 | 0.2060 | 0.3320 | 8.20 | 41.10 | 87.80 | 5.60 | 31.90 | 30.60 | 9.10 | 0.6000 |
| CF | Michael Harris II | - | 1.0702 | 0.9360 | neutral | 0.3420 | 0.2900 | 0.4770 | 10.30 | 47.60 | 90.50 | 10 | 24.60 | 19.20 | 3.70 | -0.2000 |
| LF | Lane Thomas | - | 1.0155 | 0.2061 | neutral | 0.3110 | 0.2380 | 0.3650 | 6.40 | 40.90 | 89.30 | 17.40 | 22.90 | 24.90 | 11.80 | -0.0571 |
| 3B | Austin Riley | - | 1.0239 | 0.3191 | neutral | 0.2990 | 0.2130 | 0.3960 | 12.40 | 44.30 | 91.30 | 18.50 | 31.90 | 31.90 | 7.60 | 0.2571 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | Shohei Ohtani | - | 1.1401 | 1.8682 | neutral | 0.3970 | 0.2860 | 0.5520 | 16.40 | 52.10 | 93.30 | 12.30 | 31.70 | 24.60 | 13.10 | 0.5714 |
| LF | Teoscar Hernández | - | 1.0522 | 0.6961 | neutral | 0.3320 | 0.2560 | 0.4370 | 10.70 | 44.80 | 90.30 | 13.90 | 32.60 | 27.50 | 8.60 | 0 |
| 1B | Freddie Freeman | - | 1.0846 | 1.1277 | neutral | 0.3630 | 0.2900 | 0.4630 | 8.10 | 41.30 | 89.50 | 12.20 | 23.20 | 17.70 | 10 | 0.4286 |
| C | Will Smith | - | 1.1236 | 1.6486 | positive_batter_regression | 0.3890 | 0.2790 | 0.5020 | 12.40 | 41.20 | 89.10 | 20.10 | 16.70 | 16.30 | 12.30 | 1.2571 |
| 3B | Miguel Rojas | - | 1.0168 | 0.2244 | neutral | 0.3090 | 0.2770 | 0.3860 | 4.80 | 36.20 | 87.30 | 14.60 | 17 | 10.70 | 6.30 | 0.0857 |
| SS | Mookie Betts | - | 1.0592 | 0.7895 | neutral | 0.3390 | 0.2780 | 0.4350 | 7.80 | 38 | 90.20 | 17.90 | 12.50 | 11 | 8.90 | 0.0286 |
| RF | Kyle Tucker | - | 1.0358 | 0.4771 | neutral | 0.3310 | 0.2560 | 0.3930 | 6.40 | 36.30 | 88.50 | 18.10 | 20.80 | 16.70 | 12.40 | 0.3714 |
| CF | Andy Pages | - | 1.0550 | 0.7337 | neutral | 0.3430 | 0.2740 | 0.4420 | 7.90 | 42.30 | 88.90 | 15.70 | 22.10 | 19.70 | 8.50 | -0.2571 |
| 2B | Tommy Edman | - | 0.9855 | -0.1936 | neutral | 0.3030 | 0.2400 | 0.3470 | 5.30 | 32 | 87.30 | 13.10 | 23 | 20.20 | 6.60 | -0.4857 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0614,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0614,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "660271",
"player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
"offense_factor": 1.1401,
"quality_score": 1.8682,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "660271",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 571.0,
"k_percent": 24.6,
"bb_percent": 13.1,
"woba": 0.377,
"xwoba": 0.397,
"xba": 0.286,
"xslg": 0.552,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 16.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 52.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 93.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.3,
"whiff_percent": 31.7,
"swing_percent": 46.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 2.0793,
"regression_edge": 0.5714,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"xba_edge": 1.4286,
"xslg_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 2.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.0714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.96,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.7833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "606192",
"player_name": "Teoscar Hernández",
"offense_factor": 1.0522,
"quality_score": 0.6961,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "606192",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 443.0,
"k_percent": 27.5,
"bb_percent": 8.6,
"woba": 0.332,
"xwoba": 0.332,
"xba": 0.256,
"xslg": 0.437,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 44.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.9,
"whiff_percent": 32.6,
"swing_percent": 48.0
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.8094,
"regression_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": 0.9429,
"xba_edge": 0.5714,
"xslg_edge": 1.0571,
"barrel_edge": 0.9111,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.0286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.76,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "518692",
"player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
"offense_factor": 1.0846,
"quality_score": 1.1277,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "518692",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 607.0,
"k_percent": 17.7,
"bb_percent": 10.0,
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}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
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"raw_average_factor": 1.0385,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
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"players": [
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{
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"player_name": "Mauricio Dubón",
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},
{
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"player_name": "Matt Olson",
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{
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"player_name": "Drake Baldwin",
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},
{
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"player_id": "669221",
"player_name": "Sean Murphy",
"offense_factor": 0.9903,
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{
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{
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"player_id": "657041",
"player_name": "Lane Thomas",
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},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "663586",
"player_name": "Austin Riley",
"offense_factor": 1.0239,
"quality_score": 0.3191,
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},
"metrics": {
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],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away ATL | True | - | 0.1441 | 0.4500 | 0.9878 | 0.9815 | 0.9442 | 0.9609 | negative_pitcher_regression | 0.2810 | 0.2090 | 16.70 | 3 | 23.40 | 5.90 | 31.40 | |
| Home LAD | True | - | 0.8478 | 0.6240 | 0.9279 | 1.0688 | 1 | 0.8350 | neutral | 0.2280 | 0.2450 | 31.80 | 9.20 | 34.80 | 2 | 15.80 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away ATL | True | None | 26 | 89.52 | 2149 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0191 | |
| Home LAD | True | None | 82 | 89.27 | 2342 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0332 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 0.9758 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 0.9939 |
| home_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9550 |
| away_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9945 |
| home_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6296 |
| away_pitcher_workload_share | 0.4815 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | 0.4644 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 156.0,
"k_percent": 31.8,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.245,
"xwoba": 0.228,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 15.8,
"avg_best_speed": 71.9158,
"avg_hyper_speed": 91.063,
"whiff_percent": 34.8,
"swing_percent": 49.7
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.8318,
"command_and_miss": 1.1036,
"regression_edge": 0.4857,
"xwoba_edge": 2.4,
"barrel_edge": 1.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
"whiff_edge": 1.3714,
"bb_edge": 0.0,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0332
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 82,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.27067101921558,
"release_spin_rate": 2341.8445698453625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.27067101921558,
"release_spin_rate": 2341.8445698453625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.2707,
"release_spin_rate": 2341.8446,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0332,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.2374,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.8478,
"sample_weight": 0.624,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9279,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0688,
"walk_factor": 1.0,
"homer_factor": 0.835,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.017,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "605483",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "678061",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 50.0,
"k_percent": 16.7,
"bb_percent": 3.0,
"woba": 0.209,
"xwoba": 0.281,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 31.4,
"avg_best_speed": 77.8999,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.2085,
"whiff_percent": 23.4,
"swing_percent": 52.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9908,
"command_and_miss": -0.1271,
"regression_edge": -2.0,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8857,
"barrel_edge": 0.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.9286,
"whiff_edge": -0.2571,
"bb_edge": 1.55,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0191
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "678061",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 26,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 26,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
"release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 26,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
"release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.5228,
"release_spin_rate": 2148.8919,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0191,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.1365,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.1441,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9878,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9815,
"walk_factor": 0.9442,
"homer_factor": 0.9609,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.072,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "678061",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 0.9758,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 0.9939,
"home_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.955,
"away_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.9945,
"home_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6296,
"away_pitcher_workload_share": 0.4815,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": 0.4644
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 2.0,
"home_runs": 4.0
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 1.9516,
"home_runs": 3.9755,
"home_win_probability": 0.6804
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away ATL | 5-5 | 0.500 | 4 | 3.90 | 1 | 1L | average | average |
| Home LAD | 8-2 | 0.800 | 5 | 2.20 | 28 | 3W | average | strong |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away ATL | 94-68 | 0.580 | 116 | 0.716 | True |
| Home LAD | 100-62 | 0.617 | 201 | 1.241 | True |
| Signal | - | - | 0.525 | 0.610 | applied=True |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | LAD @ ATL | 0 - 1 | ATL | 1 | close |
| 2026-08-26 | LAD @ ATL | 5 - 6 | ATL | 1 | close |
| 2026-08-25 | LAD @ ATL | 3 - 4 | ATL | 1 | close |
| 2026-05-10 | ATL @ LAD | 7 - 2 | ATL | 5 | blowout |
| 2026-05-09 | ATL @ LAD | 7 - 2 | ATL | 5 | blowout |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target ATL | - | - | 3 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target LAD | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized ATL | 33 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| Player finalized LAD | 33 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Player model fractional ATL | 34.99 | 7.21 | 4.09 | 1.42 | 4.20 | 3.10 | 8.97 |
| Player model fractional LAD | 33.22 | 7.78 | 4.61 | 1.43 | 4.48 | 3.05 | 6.64 |
| Simulation box ATL | 31 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| Simulation box LAD | 30 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away ATL | Starter | Ray Kerr | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2.90 | 1.03 | True |
| Away ATL | Setup Man | Didier Fuentes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.25 | 1.44 | True |
| Away ATL | Closer | Raisel Iglesias | 1.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.88 | 0.91 | True |
| Away ATL | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Dylan Lee | 0.20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5.90 | 1.38 | True |
| Home LAD | Starter | Blake Snell | 5.10 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 2.61 | 1.22 | True |
| Home LAD | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Edwin Díaz | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4.23 | 1.24 | True |
| Home LAD | Setup Man | Evan Phillips | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3.43 | 1.00 | True |
| Home LAD | Closer | Tanner Scott | 1.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4.32 | 1.17 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | LAD | batter | LF | Teoscar Hernández | better | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 3 | predicted_RBI | 2.3400 | boost | better |
| away | ATL | batter | CF | Michael Harris II | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | predicted_AB | -2.0500 | deboost | worse |
| away | ATL | batter | RF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_AB | -1.8100 | deboost | worse |
| away | ATL | batter | C | Drake Baldwin | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 9 | predicted_AB | -1.7500 | deboost | worse |
| home | LAD | batter | CF | Andy Pages | worse | 11 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 9 | predicted_AB | -1.5500 | deboost | worse |
| away | ATL | batter | SS | Mauricio Dubón | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 9 | predicted_SO | 1.5060 | boost | worse |
| away | ATL | batter | 2B | Ozzie Albies | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 8 | predicted_SO | 1.3580 | boost | worse |
| home | LAD | batter | RF | Kyle Tucker | worse | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | predicted_SO | 1.2980 | boost | worse |
| home | LAD | batter | 1B | Freddie Freeman | worse | 10 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 7 | predicted_SO | 1.2550 | boost | worse |
| away | ATL | batter | 1B | Matt Olson | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_AB | -1.1300 | deboost | worse |
| home | LAD | batter | SS | Mookie Betts | better | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 | predicted_AB | -1.1300 | deboost | worse |
| home | LAD | batter | DH | Shohei Ohtani | worse | 11 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 9 | predicted_SO | -1.1190 | deboost | better |
| away | ATL | batter | DH | Sean Murphy | better | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 | predicted_SO | -1.0860 | deboost | better |
| home | LAD | batter | C | Will Smith | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 8 | predicted_H | -1.0800 | deboost | worse |
| away | ATL | batter | LF | Lane Thomas | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 9 | predicted_AB | 1.0540 | boost | better |
| home | LAD | batter | 2B | Tommy Edman | worse | 10 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | predicted_SO | -0.8270 | deboost | better |
| home | LAD | batter | 3B | Miguel Rojas | worse | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | predicted_2B | 0.8220 | boost | better |
| away | ATL | batter | 3B | Austin Riley | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 7 | predicted_H | -0.7300 | deboost | worse |
| away | ATL | pitcher | Starter | Ray Kerr | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.6667 | boost | better |
| home | LAD | pitcher | Starter | Blake Snell | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.5667 | deboost | worse |
| away | ATL | pitcher | Closer | Raisel Iglesias | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.1000 | boost | better |
| away | ATL | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Dylan Lee | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.1000 | boost | better |
| home | LAD | pitcher | Setup Man | Evan Phillips | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.1000 | boost | better |
| home | LAD | pitcher | Closer | Tanner Scott | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.1000 | boost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Ray Kerr |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1441 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0191 |
| Avg Velo | 89.5228 |
| Avg Spin | 2148.8919 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 4 |
| Season ERA | 1.2462 |
| Season WHIP | 0.6000 |
| Role Avg IP | 3.1670 |
| Recent Avg IP | 3.1670 |
| Last Start IP | 3.1000 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.0198,
"defense_index": 1.1622,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1559
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6173,
"runs_scored": 801.0,
"runs_allowed": 600.0,
"run_differential": 201.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
"offense_index": 1.1009,
"defense_index": 1.2126,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
"run_differential": 28.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3566
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.2007,
"offense_edge": 0.0198,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1009,
"defense_strength": 0.1622,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2126,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9928,
"run_prevention": 1.01,
"strikeout": 0.9859
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "678061",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "678061",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 50.0,
"k_percent": 16.7,
"bb_percent": 3.0,
"woba": 0.209,
"xwoba": 0.281,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 31.4,
"avg_best_speed": 77.8999,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.2085,
"whiff_percent": 23.4,
"swing_percent": 52.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9908,
"command_and_miss": -0.1271,
"regression_edge": -2.0,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8857,
"barrel_edge": 0.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.9286,
"whiff_edge": -0.2571,
"bb_edge": 1.55,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0191
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "678061",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 26,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 26,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
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"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 26,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
"release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.5228,
"release_spin_rate": 2148.8919,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0191,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.1365,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.1441,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9878,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9815,
"walk_factor": 0.9442,
"homer_factor": 0.9609,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.072,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "678061",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9945,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9945,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9749,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9824,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9917,
"adjusted": 1
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 21.2,
"ER": 3,
"H": 10,
"BB": 3,
"SO": 13,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 1.2461538461538462,
"WHIP": 0.6,
"K9": 5.3999999999999995,
"HR9": 0.8307692307692307,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 1,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-01T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "678061",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 26,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 26,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
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"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 26,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
"release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2148.8919,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"velocity_edge": -0.1365,
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"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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},
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},
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"BB_per_IP": 0.13846,
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}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 1.069,
"predicted_H": 2.496,
"predicted_BB": 0.912,
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"predicted_ERA": 2.8969,
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}
}{
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"model_weight": 0.5731,
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"form_reliability": 0.4719,
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"final": 3.3921,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.8969,
"final": 2.8969,
"source": "form_only"
},
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Didier Fuentes |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.5937 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.4978 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1101 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.2320 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
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"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.0198,
"defense_index": 1.1622,
"current_streak": "L1",
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1559
},
"opponent": {
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"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6173,
"runs_scored": 801.0,
"runs_allowed": 600.0,
"run_differential": 201.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
"offense_index": 1.1009,
"defense_index": 1.2126,
"current_streak": "W3",
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"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
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},
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},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0198,
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"defense_strength": 0.1622,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2126,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
},
"player_factors": {
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"run_prevention": 1.01,
"strikeout": 0.9859
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "800311",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "800311",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 31.0,
"bb_percent": 7.1,
"woba": 0.269,
"xwoba": 0.275,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
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"avg_best_speed": 77.5089,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.3514,
"whiff_percent": 30.4,
"swing_percent": 52.7
},
"league_medians": {
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"bb_percent": 9.2,
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"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
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"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
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"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 0.9371,
"regression_edge": -0.1714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0571,
"barrel_edge": 0.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
"whiff_edge": 0.7429,
"bb_edge": 0.525,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
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"pitcher_id": "800311",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
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"walk_factor": 0.958,
"homer_factor": 0.9388,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "800311",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.9495,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 0.9495,
"adjusted": 1
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"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 0.958,
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"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.9388,
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}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"BB": 2,
"SO": 14,
"HR": 3,
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"K9": 9.692307692307692,
"HR9": 2.076923076923077,
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"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-01T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "800311",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
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"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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},
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},
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},
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"player_id": "800311",
"report_date": "20261004",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 60,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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},
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},
"rates": {
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}
},
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},
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},
"rates": {
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"HR_per_IP": 0.23077
}
},
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"totals": {
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"R": 22.0,
"H": 64.0,
"BB": 20.0,
"SO": 93.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 307.0,
"Pitches": 1267.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.35,
"R": 0.3667,
"H": 1.0667,
"BB": 0.3333,
"SO": 1.55,
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"H_per_IP": 0.84581,
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"SO_per_IP": 1.22907,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09251
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_H": 1.442,
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"predicted_HR": 0.282,
"predicted_ERA": 4.255,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.4387
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}{
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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},
"predicted_H": {
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"final": 1.242,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"final": 0.1078,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"final": 1.0153,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"final": 0.1544,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.255,
"final": 4.255,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.4387,
"final": 1.4387,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Raisel Iglesias |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.2863 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.4677 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0806 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.0160 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.0198,
"defense_index": 1.1622,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1559
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6173,
"runs_scored": 801.0,
"runs_allowed": 600.0,
"run_differential": 201.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
"offense_index": 1.1009,
"defense_index": 1.2126,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
"run_differential": 28.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3566
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0198,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1009,
"defense_strength": 0.1622,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2126,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
},
"player_factors": {
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"run_prevention": 1.01,
"strikeout": 0.9859
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "628452",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "628452",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 26.8,
"bb_percent": 7.1,
"woba": 0.274,
"xwoba": 0.289,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
"avg_best_speed": 77.1554,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.6867,
"whiff_percent": 30.0,
"swing_percent": 52.4
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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},
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}
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},
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},
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}{
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"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
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},
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}
},
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}
}{
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}
}{
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"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Dylan Lee |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.8721 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.1899 |
| Avg Velo | 86.4723 |
| Avg Spin | 2144.4657 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 0.2000 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 3.0146 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9175 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9540 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.9330 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.0198,
"defense_index": 1.1622,
"current_streak": "L1",
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1559
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6173,
"runs_scored": 801.0,
"runs_allowed": 600.0,
"run_differential": 201.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
"offense_index": 1.1009,
"defense_index": 1.2126,
"current_streak": "W3",
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"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
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},
"available": true,
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},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0198,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1009,
"defense_strength": 0.1622,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2126,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9928,
"run_prevention": 1.01,
"strikeout": 0.9859
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "669276",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669276",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 29.4,
"bb_percent": 6.5,
"woba": 0.248,
"xwoba": 0.252,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.001,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.1922,
"whiff_percent": 35.7,
"swing_percent": 52.7
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 1.1293,
"regression_edge": -0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.7143,
"barrel_edge": 0.4,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
"whiff_edge": 1.5,
"bb_edge": 0.675,
"pitch_design_score": -0.1899
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669276",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 14,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 14,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"components": {
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"velocity_edge": -1.3567,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
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"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.8721,
"sample_weight": 0.988,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9259,
"strikeout_factor": 1.1005,
"walk_factor": 0.9466,
"homer_factor": 0.8882,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669276",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.9268,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9268,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9472,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.8895,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.0993,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.0,
"ER": 9,
"H": 14,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 6,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 9.0,
"WHIP": 1.7777777777777777,
"K9": 6.0,
"HR9": 2.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-30T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669276",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 14,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 14,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 86.47228713726975,
"release_spin_rate": 2144.465666280228,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"spin_axis": 0.0,
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"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"whiff_percent": 0.0,
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},
"components": {
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.3567,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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},
"effective_weights": {
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},
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.739,
"prior_weight": 0.261
},
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"player_id": "669276",
"report_date": "20261004",
"season_year": 2026,
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"reference_playing_time": 0.1,
"windows": {
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},
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},
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}
},
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},
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},
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}
},
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}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4603,
"form_weight": 0.5397,
"form_reliability": 0.739,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 14.161,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.739,
"prior_weight": 0.261
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.1,
"form": 0.2,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 0.542,
"final": 1.6733,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.922,
"final": 1.4182,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.217,
"final": 1.0377,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.719,
"final": 0.3881,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.206,
"final": 0.5715,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 5.9008,
"final": 5.9008,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3789,
"final": 1.3789,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.164 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.180 | 0.000 | -0.180 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.810 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.872 | 4.000 | -0.872 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.257 | 0.250 | 0.076 | 0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.500 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.530 | 0.000 | 0.470 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.076 | 0.000 | -0.076 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.070 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.996 | 1.000 | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.187 | 0.000 | -0.187 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | 0.500 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.351 | 0.250 | 0.149 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.582 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.582 | 1.000 | -0.582 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.510 | 0.000 | -0.510 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.394 | 0.333 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.453 | 0.250 | -0.119 | 0.083 |
| predicted_SO | 0.945 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.978 | 0.000 | 0.022 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.5000 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.8100 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.8100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | - | predicted_AB: 4.8100 -> 4.3239 (deboost -0.4861, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3269 -> 0.2964 (deboost -0.0305, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.8799 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1201, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.5090 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5090, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.034 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5439 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4561, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.5221 (boost 0.5221, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8672 (deboost -0.1328, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.1946 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8054, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4792 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4792, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3624 -> 0.4270 (boost 0.0646, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4270 -> 0.3624 (deboost -0.0646, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "660670",
"player_name": "Ronald Acuña Jr.",
"position": "RF",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.164,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 4.81,
"predicted_AVG": 0.223,
"predicted_BB": 0.5,
"predicted_H": 1.07,
"predicted_HR": 0.2,
"predicted_OBP": 0.325,
"predicted_R": 0.582,
"predicted_RBI": 0.47,
"predicted_SLG": 0.394,
"predicted_SO": 0.945
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1363,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 4.3239,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2206,
"predicted_BB": 0.5117,
"predicted_H": 0.954,
"predicted_HBP": 0.091,
"predicted_HR": 0.1688,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3269,
"predicted_R": 0.5746,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4323,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3756,
"predicted_SO": 0.8753
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.164,
"after": 0.1363,
"delta": -0.0277,
"percent_delta": -0.1689,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.81,
"after": 4.3239,
"delta": -0.4861,
"percent_delta": -0.1011,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.2206,
"delta": -0.0024,
"percent_delta": -0.0108,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.5117,
"delta": 0.0117,
"percent_delta": 0.0234,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.07,
"after": 0.954,
"delta": -0.116,
"percent_delta": -0.1084,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.1688,
"delta": -0.0312,
"percent_delta": -0.156,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3269,
"delta": 0.0019,
"percent_delta": 0.0058,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.582,
"after": 0.5746,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0127,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.47,
"after": 0.4323,
"delta": -0.0377,
"percent_delta": -0.0802,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.394,
"after": 0.3756,
"delta": -0.0184,
"percent_delta": -0.0467,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.945,
"after": 0.8753,
"delta": -0.0697,
"percent_delta": -0.0738,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.81,
"after": 4.3239,
"delta": -0.4861,
"percent_delta": -0.1011,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 110
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1363,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 4.3239,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2136,
"predicted_BB": 0.509,
"predicted_H": 0.9234,
"predicted_HBP": 0.091,
"predicted_HR": 0.1639,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2964,
"predicted_R": 0.5439,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4092,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3624,
"predicted_SO": 0.8799
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1363,
"after": 0.1363,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.3239,
"after": 4.3239,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2206,
"after": 0.2136,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0317,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5117,
"after": 0.509,
"delta": -0.0027,
"percent_delta": -0.0053,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.954,
"after": 0.9234,
"delta": -0.0306,
"percent_delta": -0.0321,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.091,
"after": 0.091,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1688,
"after": 0.1639,
"delta": -0.0049,
"percent_delta": -0.029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3269,
"after": 0.2964,
"delta": -0.0305,
"percent_delta": -0.0933,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5746,
"after": 0.5439,
"delta": -0.0307,
"percent_delta": -0.0534,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4323,
"after": 0.4092,
"delta": -0.0231,
"percent_delta": -0.0534,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3756,
"after": 0.3624,
"delta": -0.0132,
"percent_delta": -0.0351,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8753,
"after": 0.8799,
"delta": 0.0046,
"percent_delta": 0.0053,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3269,
"after": 0.2964,
"delta": -0.0305,
"percent_delta": -0.0933,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.034",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1363,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1363,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.3239,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.3239,
"percent_delta": -0.0749,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.509,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.509,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9234,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0766,
"percent_delta": 0.083,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.091,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.091,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1639,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1639,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4092,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4092,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8799,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1201,
"percent_delta": 0.1365,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8799,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1201,
"percent_delta": 0.1365,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.509,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.509,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.427,
"after": 0.3624,
"delta": -0.0646,
"percent_delta": -0.1514,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.164,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.164,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.81,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.81,
"percent_delta": -0.3763,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.2136,
"delta": -0.0094,
"percent_delta": -0.0422,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.07,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.07,
"percent_delta": -0.0654,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.2964,
"delta": -0.0286,
"percent_delta": -0.088,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.582,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.582,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.47,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.47,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.394,
"after": 0.3624,
"delta": -0.0316,
"percent_delta": -0.0802,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.945,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.055,
"percent_delta": 0.0582,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.81,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.81,
"percent_delta": -0.3763,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.164 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.810 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.070 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.582 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.394 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.945 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | -0.028 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.324 | -0.486 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.512 | 0.012 |
| predicted_H | 0.954 | -0.116 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.091 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.169 | -0.031 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.575 | -0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.432 | -0.038 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.376 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 0.875 | -0.070 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.324 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.214 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.509 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.923 | -0.031 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.091 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.164 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | -0.031 |
| predicted_R | 0.544 | -0.031 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.409 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.362 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.880 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.034
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.195 | 0.195 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.522 | 0.522 |
| H | 0.867 | -0.133 |
| HR | 0.190 | 0.190 |
| RBI | 0.479 | 0.479 |
| SO | 1.113 | 0.113 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.805 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.478 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.133 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.190 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.479 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.113 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.324 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.509 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.077 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.164 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | 0.026 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.456 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.409 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.427 | 0.065 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.120 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.1111 | 0.2727 | 0.1111 | 0.1111 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 0.2059 | 0.3415 | 0.2941 | 0.2059 | 0.0294 | 0.1177 | 0.1765 | 0.1471 |
| season | 0.60 | 110 | - | 418.000 | 106.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 | 20.000 | 55.000 | 64.000 | 55.000 | 104.000 | 0.2536 | 0.3465 | 0.4450 | 0.2536 | 0.0478 | 0.1316 | 0.1316 | 0.2488 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6870 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2175 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5270 |
| predicted_H | 0.8020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0910 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1280 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3293 |
| predicted_R | 0.5650 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3830 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3515 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7840 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1640 | 0.1000 | 0.1363 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.8100 | 3.6870 | 4.3239 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2230 | 0.2175 | 0.2206 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5000 | 0.5270 | 0.5117 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0700 | 0.8020 | 0.9540 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0910 | 0.0910 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2000 | 0.1280 | 0.1688 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3250 | 0.3293 | 0.3269 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5820 | 0.5650 | 0.5746 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4700 | 0.3830 | 0.4323 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3940 | 0.3515 | 0.3756 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9450 | 0.7840 | 0.8753 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 445 |
| Season rows before report date | 445 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 110 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 660670 |
| playerID | 660670 |
| playerName | Ronald Acuña Jr. |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.348 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.366 |
| sl_xba | 0.261 |
| sl_xslg | 0.495 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.164 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.191 | 0.000 | -0.191 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.860 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.851 | 3.000 | 0.149 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.244 | 0.333 | 0.006 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.303 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.318 | 1.000 | -0.318 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.027 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.860 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.941 | 1.000 | 0.059 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.137 | 1.000 | -0.137 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.303 | 0.500 | -0.053 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.539 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.555 | 1.000 | -0.555 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.740 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.462 | 2.000 | -0.462 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.505 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.402 | 1.333 | -0.152 | -1.083 |
| predicted_SO | 0.642 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.664 | 0.000 | 1.336 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.6420 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3580, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.7400 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.3030 -> 0.3647 (boost 0.0617, better) | predicted_AB: 3.8600 -> 3.6971 (deboost -0.1629, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3348 -> 0.2917 (deboost -0.0431, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6502 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3498, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.3628 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3628, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.061 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.333) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5268 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4732, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3371 (boost 0.3371, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.4826 (deboost -0.5174, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.4826 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5174, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3371, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2917 -> 0.3010 (boost 0.0093, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4703 -> 0.3960 (deboost -0.0743, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3960 -> 0.4703 (boost 0.0743, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3010 -> 0.2917 (deboost -0.0093, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "645277",
"player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
"position": "2B",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.164,
"predicted_3B": 0.012,
"predicted_AB": 3.86,
"predicted_AVG": 0.223,
"predicted_BB": 0.303,
"predicted_H": 0.86,
"predicted_HR": 0.26,
"predicted_OBP": 0.334,
"predicted_R": 0.539,
"predicted_RBI": 0.74,
"predicted_SLG": 0.505,
"predicted_SO": 0.642
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1333,
"predicted_3B": 0.0396,
"predicted_AB": 3.6971,
"predicted_AVG": 0.23,
"predicted_BB": 0.3647,
"predicted_H": 0.8486,
"predicted_HBP": 0.119,
"predicted_HR": 0.242,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3348,
"predicted_R": 0.5565,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6923,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5016,
"predicted_SO": 0.6468
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.5174,
"percent_delta": 1.0721,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.23,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.301,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.396,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
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{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"material": true
}
],
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2222,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2917,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4703,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"percent_delta": null,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.301,
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"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -0.031,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.396,
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"delta": 0.0743,
"percent_delta": 0.1877,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.86,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.86,
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},
{
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"before": 0.26,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.539,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.539,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.74,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.74,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.505,
"after": 0.4703,
"delta": -0.0347,
"percent_delta": -0.0687,
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},
{
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"before": 0.642,
"after": 2.0,
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"percent_delta": 2.1153,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.164 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.860 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.303 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.860 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.539 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.740 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.505 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.642 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.133 | -0.031 |
| predicted_3B | 0.040 | 0.028 |
| predicted_AB | 3.697 | -0.163 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.365 | 0.062 |
| predicted_H | 0.849 | -0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.119 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.242 | -0.018 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.335 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.556 | 0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.692 | -0.048 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.502 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.647 | 0.005 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.133 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.040 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.697 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.222 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.363 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.821 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.235 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.292 | -0.043 |
| predicted_R | 0.527 | -0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.655 | -0.037 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.470 | -0.031 |
| predicted_SO | 0.650 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.061
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.333)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.181 | 0.181 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.337 | 0.337 |
| H | 0.838 | -0.162 |
| HR | 0.135 | 0.135 |
| RBI | 0.483 | -0.517 |
| SO | 0.792 | -0.208 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.181 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.337 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.162 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.135 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.517 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.208 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.133 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.040 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.303 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.363 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.179 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.235 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | 0.009 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.473 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.345 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | -0.074 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.350 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 0.2857 | 0.4737 | 0.8571 | 0.2857 | 0.1429 | 0.3571 | 0.2857 | 0.1429 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 0.1818 | 0.3077 | 0.4242 | 0.1818 | 0.0606 | 0.1818 | 0.1212 | 0.2727 |
| season | 0.60 | 165 | - | 620.000 | 150.000 | 27.000 | 2.000 | 24.000 | 78.000 | 89.000 | 50.000 | 106.000 | 0.2419 | 0.3016 | 0.4081 | 0.2419 | 0.0387 | 0.1258 | 0.0806 | 0.1710 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0940 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0750 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4880 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2390 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4440 |
| predicted_H | 0.8340 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1190 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2190 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3359 |
| predicted_R | 0.5790 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6310 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4972 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6530 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1640 | 0.0940 | 0.1333 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 | 0.0750 | 0.0396 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8600 | 3.4880 | 3.6971 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2230 | 0.2390 | 0.2300 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3030 | 0.4440 | 0.3647 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8600 | 0.8340 | 0.8486 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1190 | 0.1190 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2600 | 0.2190 | 0.2420 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3340 | 0.3359 | 0.3348 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5390 | 0.5790 | 0.5565 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7400 | 0.6310 | 0.6923 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5050 | 0.4972 | 0.5016 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6420 | 0.6530 | 0.6468 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 658 |
| Season rows before report date | 658 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 165 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 645277 |
| playerID | 645277 |
| playerName | Ozzie Albies |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.298 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.273 |
| sl_xba | 0.221 |
| sl_xslg | 0.337 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 27.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.186 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.192 | 0.000 | -0.192 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.724 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.823 | 3.000 | 0.177 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.278 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.231 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.246 | 1.000 | -0.246 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.026 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.062 | 0.000 | -0.062 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.077 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.081 | 0.000 | -0.081 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.325 | 0.250 | -0.075 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.423 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.447 | 0.000 | -0.447 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.468 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.509 | 0.000 | -0.509 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.398 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.403 | 0.000 | -0.153 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.494 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.486 | 1.000 | 1.514 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.4940 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.5060, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.4680 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4680, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3980 -> 0.4035 (boost 0.0055, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4035 -> 0.3924 (deboost -0.0111, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5453 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4547, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4252 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4252, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.023 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3835 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3835, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4636 (boost 0.4636, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.6642 (deboost -0.3358, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6642 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3358, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4636 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4636, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2646 -> 0.2450 (deboost -0.0196, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2450 -> 0.2646 (boost 0.0196, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "643289",
"player_name": "Mauricio Dubón",
"position": "SS",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.186,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 3.724,
"predicted_AVG": 0.275,
"predicted_BB": 0.231,
"predicted_H": 1.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.077,
"predicted_OBP": 0.318,
"predicted_R": 0.423,
"predicted_RBI": 0.468,
"predicted_SLG": 0.398,
"predicted_SO": 0.494
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1882,
"predicted_3B": 0.0159,
"predicted_AB": 3.7633,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2731,
"predicted_BB": 0.2266,
"predicted_H": 1.0286,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.0897,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3156,
"predicted_R": 0.4051,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4492,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4035,
"predicted_SO": 0.5425
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.186,
"after": 0.1882,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0118,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0159,
"delta": -0.0031,
"percent_delta": -0.1632,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.724,
"after": 3.7633,
"delta": 0.0393,
"percent_delta": 0.0106,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.275,
"after": 0.2731,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0069,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.2266,
"delta": -0.0044,
"percent_delta": -0.019,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.026,
"after": 1.0286,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.077,
"after": 0.0897,
"delta": 0.0127,
"percent_delta": 0.1649,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.318,
"after": 0.3156,
"delta": -0.0024,
"percent_delta": -0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.423,
"after": 0.4051,
"delta": -0.0179,
"percent_delta": -0.0423,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.468,
"after": 0.4492,
"delta": -0.0188,
"percent_delta": -0.0402,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.398,
"after": 0.4035,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0138,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.494,
"after": 0.5425,
"delta": 0.0485,
"percent_delta": 0.0982,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.398,
"after": 0.4035,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0138,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 156
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1882,
"predicted_3B": 0.0159,
"predicted_AB": 3.7633,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2646,
"predicted_BB": 0.2254,
"predicted_H": 0.9956,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.0871,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3061,
"predicted_R": 0.3835,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4252,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3924,
"predicted_SO": 0.5453
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1882,
"after": 0.1882,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0159,
"after": 0.0159,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7633,
"after": 3.7633,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2731,
"after": 0.2646,
"delta": -0.0085,
"percent_delta": -0.0311,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2266,
"after": 0.2254,
"delta": -0.0012,
"percent_delta": -0.0053,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0286,
"after": 0.9956,
"delta": -0.033,
"percent_delta": -0.0321,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.017,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0897,
"after": 0.0871,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3156,
"after": 0.3061,
"delta": -0.0095,
"percent_delta": -0.0301,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4051,
"after": 0.3835,
"delta": -0.0216,
"percent_delta": -0.0533,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4492,
"after": 0.4252,
"delta": -0.024,
"percent_delta": -0.0534,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4035,
"after": 0.3924,
"delta": -0.0111,
"percent_delta": -0.0275,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5425,
"after": 0.5453,
"delta": 0.0028,
"percent_delta": 0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4035,
"after": 0.3924,
"delta": -0.0111,
"percent_delta": -0.0275,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2646,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3061,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3924,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2646,
"delta": 0.0196,
"percent_delta": 0.0798,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.3061,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": 0.0037,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.3924,
"delta": 0.0024,
"percent_delta": 0.0063,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2646,
"delta": 0.0196,
"percent_delta": 0.0798,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.186,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.186,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.019,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.724,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.276,
"percent_delta": 0.0741,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.275,
"after": 0.2646,
"delta": -0.0104,
"percent_delta": -0.0378,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.231,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.026,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -0.0253,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.077,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.077,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.318,
"after": 0.3061,
"delta": -0.0119,
"percent_delta": -0.0374,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.423,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.423,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.468,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.468,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.398,
"after": 0.3924,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0141,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.494,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.506,
"percent_delta": 3.0486,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.494,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.506,
"percent_delta": 3.0486,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.468,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.468,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.186 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.724 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.231 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.026 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.077 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.423 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.468 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.398 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.494 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | 0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.763 | 0.039 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.273 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.227 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 1.029 | 0.003 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.405 | -0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.449 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.542 | 0.048 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.763 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.265 | -0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.225 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.996 | -0.033 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.087 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.384 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.425 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.392 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.545 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.023
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.173 | 0.173 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.284 | 0.284 |
| H | 0.892 | -0.108 |
| HR | 0.112 | 0.112 |
| RBI | 0.464 | 0.464 |
| SO | 0.664 | -0.336 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.173 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.284 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.108 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.112 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.464 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.336 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.188 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.237 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | -0.020 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.225 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.004 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.087 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.384 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.425 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.390 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.455 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2857 | 0.4500 | 0.2500 | 0.0500 | 0.1000 | 0.0500 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 0.2821 | 0.3171 | 0.4103 | 0.2821 | 0.0256 | 0.0769 | 0.0513 | 0.1795 |
| season | 0.60 | 156 | - | 581.000 | 160.000 | 29.000 | 3.000 | 12.000 | 73.000 | 66.000 | 36.000 | 77.000 | 0.2754 | 0.3205 | 0.3976 | 0.2754 | 0.0207 | 0.1257 | 0.0620 | 0.1325 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1910 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8140 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2706 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2210 |
| predicted_H | 1.0320 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1060 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3125 |
| predicted_R | 0.3820 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4250 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4105 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6050 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1860 | 0.1910 | 0.1882 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 | 0.0120 | 0.0159 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7240 | 3.8140 | 3.7633 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2750 | 0.2706 | 0.2731 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2310 | 0.2210 | 0.2266 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0260 | 1.0320 | 1.0286 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0170 | 0.0170 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0770 | 0.1060 | 0.0897 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3180 | 0.3125 | 0.3156 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4230 | 0.3820 | 0.4051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4680 | 0.4250 | 0.4492 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3980 | 0.4105 | 0.4035 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4940 | 0.6050 | 0.5425 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 593 |
| Season rows before report date | 593 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 156 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF-SS |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 643289 |
| playerID | 643289 |
| playerName | Mauricio Dubón |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 11.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.317 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.304 |
| sl_xba | 0.268 |
| sl_xslg | 0.375 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 15.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.206 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.227 | 0.000 | -0.227 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.130 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.897 | 4.000 | -0.897 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.253 | 0.000 | 0.080 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.388 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.429 | 0.000 | 0.571 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.910 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.987 | 0.000 | 0.013 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.280 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.265 | 0.000 | -0.265 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.263 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.172 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.606 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.656 | 0.000 | 0.344 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.690 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.593 | 0.000 | 0.407 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.453 | 0.333 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.515 | 0.000 | -0.182 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 1.055 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.091 | 1.000 | 0.909 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.0550 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.9450, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.1300 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.1300, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_AB: 4.1300 -> 3.9372 (deboost -0.1928, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2631 -> 0.2732 (boost 0.0101, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2153 -> 0.2084 (deboost -0.0069, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.6159 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3841, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3507 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3507, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.060 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.222) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5292 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4708, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3615 (boost 0.3615, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.6024 (deboost -0.3976, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_HR: 0.1961 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8039, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3615 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3615, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.2732 -> 0.2990 (boost 0.0258, better) | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4330 -> 0.4431 (boost 0.0101, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.2990 -> 0.2732 (deboost -0.0258, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "621566",
"player_name": "Matt Olson",
"position": "1B",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.206,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.13,
"predicted_AVG": 0.221,
"predicted_BB": 0.388,
"predicted_H": 0.91,
"predicted_HR": 0.28,
"predicted_OBP": 0.263,
"predicted_R": 0.606,
"predicted_RBI": 0.69,
"predicted_SLG": 0.453,
"predicted_SO": 1.055
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1775,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.9372,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2153,
"predicted_BB": 0.3525,
"predicted_H": 0.8478,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.2559,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2631,
"predicted_R": 0.5591,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6506,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4426,
"predicted_SO": 1.0344
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.206,
"after": 0.1775,
"delta": -0.0285,
"percent_delta": -0.1383,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.13,
"after": 3.9372,
"delta": -0.1928,
"percent_delta": -0.0467,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.221,
"after": 0.2153,
"delta": -0.0057,
"percent_delta": -0.0258,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.388,
"after": 0.3525,
"delta": -0.0355,
"percent_delta": -0.0915,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.91,
"after": 0.8478,
"delta": -0.0622,
"percent_delta": -0.0684,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.2559,
"delta": -0.0241,
"percent_delta": -0.0861,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.263,
"after": 0.2631,
"delta": 0.0001,
"percent_delta": 0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.606,
"after": 0.5591,
"delta": -0.0469,
"percent_delta": -0.0774,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.69,
"after": 0.6506,
"delta": -0.0394,
"percent_delta": -0.0571,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.453,
"after": 0.4426,
"delta": -0.0104,
"percent_delta": -0.023,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.055,
"after": 1.0344,
"delta": -0.0206,
"percent_delta": -0.0195,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 4.13,
"after": 3.9372,
"delta": -0.1928,
"percent_delta": -0.0467,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 165
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1775,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.9372,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2084,
"predicted_BB": 0.3507,
"predicted_H": 0.8206,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.2485,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2732,
"predicted_R": 0.5292,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6159,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4431,
"predicted_SO": 1.0398
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1775,
"after": 0.1775,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 3.9372,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2153,
"after": 0.2084,
"delta": -0.0069,
"percent_delta": -0.032,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 0.3507,
"delta": -0.0018,
"percent_delta": -0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8478,
"after": 0.8206,
"delta": -0.0272,
"percent_delta": -0.0321,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.011,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2559,
"after": 0.2485,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0289,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2631,
"after": 0.2732,
"delta": 0.0101,
"percent_delta": 0.0384,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5591,
"after": 0.5292,
"delta": -0.0299,
"percent_delta": -0.0535,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6506,
"after": 0.6159,
"delta": -0.0347,
"percent_delta": -0.0533,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4426,
"after": 0.4431,
"delta": 0.0005,
"percent_delta": 0.0011,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0344,
"after": 1.0398,
"delta": 0.0054,
"percent_delta": 0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 0.2732,
"delta": 0.0101,
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.060",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.1775,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1775,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9372,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0628,
"percent_delta": 0.016,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3507,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3507,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8206,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1794,
"percent_delta": 0.2186,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2485,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2485,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6159,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3841,
"percent_delta": 0.6236,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0398,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0398,
"percent_delta": -0.0383,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.6159,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3841,
"percent_delta": 0.6236,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3507,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3507,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.222)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.85,
"bvp": 0.15
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5292,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4708,
"percent_delta": 0.8896,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.69,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.31,
"percent_delta": 0.4493,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.453,
"after": 0.4431,
"delta": -0.0099,
"percent_delta": -0.0219,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.055,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.945,
"percent_delta": 0.8957,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.055,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.945,
"percent_delta": 0.8957,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.13,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.13,
"percent_delta": -0.2736,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.206 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.130 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.388 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.910 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.280 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.263 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.606 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.690 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.453 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.055 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.177 | -0.028 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.937 | -0.193 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.215 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.352 | -0.036 |
| predicted_H | 0.848 | -0.062 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.256 | -0.024 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.263 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.559 | -0.047 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.651 | -0.039 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.443 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 1.034 | -0.021 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.177 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.937 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.351 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.821 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.248 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.273 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.529 | -0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.616 | -0.035 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.443 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.040 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.060
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.222)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.189 | 0.189 |
| 3B | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| BB | 0.361 | 0.361 |
| H | 0.857 | -0.143 |
| HR | 0.196 | 0.196 |
| RBI | 0.602 | -0.398 |
| SO | 1.332 | 0.332 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.189 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.361 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.143 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.804 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.398 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.332 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.177 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.063 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | 0.018 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.351 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.179 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.248 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | 0.026 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.471 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.384 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.433 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.040 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.1176 | 0.1579 | 0.2941 | 0.1177 | 0.0588 | 0.1765 | 0.0588 | 0.3529 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 0.1714 | 0.2000 | 0.3714 | 0.1714 | 0.0571 | 0.2000 | 0.0571 | 0.2000 |
| season | 0.60 | 165 | - | 634.000 | 157.000 | 34.000 | 0.000 | 41.000 | 94.000 | 100.000 | 64.000 | 174.000 | 0.2476 | 0.3164 | 0.4953 | 0.2476 | 0.0647 | 0.1483 | 0.1009 | 0.2745 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1410 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6900 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2081 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3070 |
| predicted_H | 0.7680 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2250 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2632 |
| predicted_R | 0.4990 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4293 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0080 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2060 | 0.1410 | 0.1775 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.1300 | 3.6900 | 3.9372 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2210 | 0.2081 | 0.2153 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3880 | 0.3070 | 0.3525 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9100 | 0.7680 | 0.8478 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0110 | 0.0110 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2800 | 0.2250 | 0.2559 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2630 | 0.2632 | 0.2631 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6060 | 0.4990 | 0.5591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6900 | 0.6000 | 0.6506 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4530 | 0.4293 | 0.4426 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0550 | 1.0080 | 1.0344 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 669 |
| Season rows before report date | 669 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 165 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 621566 |
| playerID | 621566 |
| playerName | Matt Olson |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.351 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.351 |
| sl_xba | 0.247 |
| sl_xslg | 0.503 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 14.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 52.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.142 | 0.000 | 0.858 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.750 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.981 | 4.000 | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.283 | 0.250 | -0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.390 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.418 | 0.000 | -0.418 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.005 | 0.000 | -0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.340 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.128 | 1.000 | -0.128 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.181 | 0.000 | -0.181 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.360 | 0.250 | -0.110 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.596 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.623 | 0.000 | -0.623 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.670 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.608 | 0.000 | -0.608 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.455 | 0.250 | 0.045 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.943 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.954 | 1.000 | 1.046 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.9430 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0570, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.7500 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.7500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AVG: 0.2330 -> 0.2511 (boost 0.0181, better) | predicted_AB: 5.7500 -> 5.0214 (deboost -0.7286, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4305 -> 0.3785 (deboost -0.0520, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8 | predicted_SO: 0.9321 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0679, worse) | predicted_AB: 5.0214 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.0214, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.031 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5034 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4966, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5862 (boost 0.5862, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.3805 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6195, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4140 -> 0.3785 (deboost -0.0355, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "686948",
"player_name": "Drake Baldwin",
"position": "C",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.149,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.75,
"predicted_AVG": 0.233,
"predicted_BB": 0.39,
"predicted_H": 1.34,
"predicted_HR": 0.2,
"predicted_OBP": 0.308,
"predicted_R": 0.596,
"predicted_RBI": 0.67,
"predicted_SLG": 0.425,
"predicted_SO": 0.943
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1577,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 5.0214,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2511,
"predicted_BB": 0.342,
"predicted_H": 1.244,
"predicted_HBP": 0.058,
"predicted_HR": 0.1847,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3168,
"predicted_R": 0.5318,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6045,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4305,
"predicted_SO": 0.9273
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.149,
"after": 0.1577,
"delta": 0.0087,
"percent_delta": 0.0584,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.75,
"after": 5.0214,
"delta": -0.7286,
"percent_delta": -0.1267,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.2511,
"delta": 0.0181,
"percent_delta": 0.0777,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.342,
"delta": -0.048,
"percent_delta": -0.1231,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.34,
"after": 1.244,
"delta": -0.096,
"percent_delta": -0.0716,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.1847,
"delta": -0.0153,
"percent_delta": -0.0765,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.308,
"after": 0.3168,
"delta": 0.0088,
"percent_delta": 0.0286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.596,
"after": 0.5318,
"delta": -0.0642,
"percent_delta": -0.1077,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.67,
"after": 0.6045,
"delta": -0.0655,
"percent_delta": -0.0978,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.4305,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0129,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.943,
"after": 0.9273,
"delta": -0.0157,
"percent_delta": -0.0166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.2511,
"delta": 0.0181,
"percent_delta": 0.0777,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2398,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.288,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3785,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.246,
"after": 0.2398,
"delta": -0.0062,
"percent_delta": -0.0253,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.315,
"after": 0.288,
"delta": -0.027,
"percent_delta": -0.0856,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.414,
"after": 0.3785,
"delta": -0.0355,
"percent_delta": -0.0857,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.414,
"after": 0.3785,
"delta": -0.0355,
"percent_delta": -0.0857,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.149,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.851,
"percent_delta": 5.7114,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.75,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.75,
"percent_delta": -0.3043,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.2398,
"delta": 0.0068,
"percent_delta": 0.0292,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.39,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.34,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.34,
"percent_delta": -0.2537,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.308,
"after": 0.288,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -0.0649,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.596,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.596,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.67,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.67,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.3785,
"delta": -0.0465,
"percent_delta": -0.1094,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.943,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.057,
"percent_delta": 1.1209,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.943,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.057,
"percent_delta": 1.1209,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.75,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.75,
"percent_delta": -0.3043,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.750 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.390 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.340 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.596 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.670 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.943 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | 0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.021 | -0.729 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | 0.018 |
| predicted_BB | 0.342 | -0.048 |
| predicted_H | 1.244 | -0.096 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.058 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.185 | -0.015 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.317 | 0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.532 | -0.064 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.605 | -0.066 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.430 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.927 | -0.016 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.340 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.204 | -0.040 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.058 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.179 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.288 | -0.029 |
| predicted_R | 0.503 | -0.028 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.572 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.379 | -0.052 |
| predicted_SO | 0.932 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.031
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.161 | 0.161 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.381 | 0.381 |
| H | 1.002 | 0.002 |
| HR | 0.171 | 0.171 |
| RBI | 0.586 | 0.586 |
| SO | 1.241 | 0.241 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.161 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.619 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.002 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.171 |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.414 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.241 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.158 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -1.021 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.340 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.204 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.179 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | 0.027 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.497 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.572 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.414 | 0.035 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.068 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 22.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.2727 | 0.2727 | 0.4545 | 0.2727 | 0.0454 | 0.1364 | 0.0000 | 0.1818 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 42.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 0.2619 | 0.3111 | 0.3810 | 0.2619 | 0.0238 | 0.0714 | 0.0476 | 0.2143 |
| season | 0.60 | 141 | - | 558.000 | 157.000 | 21.000 | 0.000 | 25.000 | 80.000 | 84.000 | 55.000 | 133.000 | 0.2814 | 0.3542 | 0.4534 | 0.2814 | 0.0448 | 0.1434 | 0.0986 | 0.2384 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1690 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 4.0810 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2745 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2800 |
| predicted_H | 1.1200 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0580 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1650 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3282 |
| predicted_R | 0.4490 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5200 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4377 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9070 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1490 | 0.1690 | 0.1577 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.7500 | 4.0810 | 5.0214 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2330 | 0.2745 | 0.2511 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3900 | 0.2800 | 0.3420 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.3400 | 1.1200 | 1.2440 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0580 | 0.0580 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2000 | 0.1650 | 0.1847 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3080 | 0.3282 | 0.3168 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5960 | 0.4490 | 0.5318 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6700 | 0.5200 | 0.6045 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4250 | 0.4377 | 0.4305 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9430 | 0.9070 | 0.9273 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 586 |
| Season rows before report date | 586 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 141 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 686948 |
| playerID | 686948 |
| playerName | Drake Baldwin |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.358 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.37 |
| sl_xba | 0.279 |
| sl_xslg | 0.505 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 50.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.152 | 0.000 | 0.848 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.314 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.457 | 3.000 | -0.457 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.190 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.198 | 0.333 | 0.135 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.343 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.314 | 0.000 | 0.686 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.629 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.686 | 1.000 | 0.314 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.114 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.133 | 1.000 | -0.133 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.266 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.265 | 0.333 | 0.235 | 0.167 |
| predicted_R | 0.371 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.419 | 1.000 | -0.419 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.314 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.429 | 1.000 | -0.429 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | 0.667 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.358 | 1.333 | 0.309 | -0.667 |
| predicted_SO | 1.086 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.229 | 1.000 | -1.229 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1430 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8570, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0860 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0860, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3360 -> 0.3553 (boost 0.0193, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0860 -> 0.9980 (deboost -0.0880, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3553 -> 0.3460 (deboost -0.0093, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.6469 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3531, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3656 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3656, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3575 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3575, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3695 (boost 0.3695, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7228 (deboost -0.2772, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.7228 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2772, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3695 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3695, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3460 -> 0.3990 (boost 0.0530, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3990 -> 0.3460 (deboost -0.0530, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669221",
"player_name": "Sean Murphy",
"position": "DH",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.143,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.314,
"predicted_AVG": 0.19,
"predicted_BB": 0.343,
"predicted_H": 0.629,
"predicted_HR": 0.114,
"predicted_OBP": 0.266,
"predicted_R": 0.371,
"predicted_RBI": 0.314,
"predicted_SLG": 0.336,
"predicted_SO": 1.086
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1466,
"predicted_3B": 0.0012,
"predicted_AB": 3.3168,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2016,
"predicted_BB": 0.3675,
"predicted_H": 0.6684,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.1207,
"predicted_OBP": 0.281,
"predicted_R": 0.3777,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3101,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3553,
"predicted_SO": 0.998
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.143,
"after": 0.1466,
"delta": 0.0036,
"percent_delta": 0.0252,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0012,
"delta": 0.0012,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.314,
"after": 3.3168,
"delta": 0.0028,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.2016,
"delta": 0.0116,
"percent_delta": 0.0611,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 0.3675,
"delta": 0.0245,
"percent_delta": 0.0714,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.629,
"after": 0.6684,
"delta": 0.0394,
"percent_delta": 0.0626,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.114,
"after": 0.1207,
"delta": 0.0067,
"percent_delta": 0.0588,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.281,
"delta": 0.015,
"percent_delta": 0.0564,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.371,
"after": 0.3777,
"delta": 0.0067,
"percent_delta": 0.0181,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.3101,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.0124,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.336,
"after": 0.3553,
"delta": 0.0193,
"percent_delta": 0.0574,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.086,
"after": 0.998,
"delta": -0.088,
"percent_delta": -0.081,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.336,
"after": 0.3553,
"delta": 0.0193,
"percent_delta": 0.0574,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.086,
"after": 0.998,
"delta": -0.088,
"percent_delta": -0.081,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 35
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1466,
"predicted_3B": 0.0012,
"predicted_AB": 3.3168,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1951,
"predicted_BB": 0.3656,
"predicted_H": 0.6469,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.1172,
"predicted_OBP": 0.275,
"predicted_R": 0.3575,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2935,
"predicted_SLG": 0.346,
"predicted_SO": 1.0032
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1466,
"after": 0.1466,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0012,
"after": 0.0012,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.3168,
"after": 3.3168,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2016,
"after": 0.1951,
"delta": -0.0065,
"percent_delta": -0.0322,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3675,
"after": 0.3656,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6684,
"after": 0.6469,
"delta": -0.0215,
"percent_delta": -0.0322,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.005,
"after": 0.005,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1207,
"after": 0.1172,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.281,
"after": 0.275,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.0214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3777,
"after": 0.3575,
"delta": -0.0202,
"percent_delta": -0.0535,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3101,
"after": 0.2935,
"delta": -0.0166,
"percent_delta": -0.0535,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3553,
"after": 0.346,
"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -0.0262,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.998,
"after": 1.0032,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3553,
"after": 0.346,
"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -0.0262,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.035",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1466,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1466,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0012,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0012,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.3168,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.3168,
"percent_delta": -0.0955,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3656,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3656,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6469,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3531,
"percent_delta": 0.5458,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.005,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1172,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1172,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2935,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2935,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0032,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0032,
"percent_delta": -0.0032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6469,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3531,
"percent_delta": 0.5458,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3656,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3656,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.9158,
"bvp": 0.0842
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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{
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"before": 3.314,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.314,
"percent_delta": -0.0947,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.1951,
"delta": 0.0051,
"percent_delta": 0.0268,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.657,
"percent_delta": 1.9155,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.629,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.371,
"percent_delta": 0.5898,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.114,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.114,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.275,
"delta": 0.009,
"percent_delta": 0.0338,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.371,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.371,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.314,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.336,
"after": 0.346,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0298,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.086,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.086,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.143,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.857,
"percent_delta": 5.993,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.086,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.086,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.314 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.343 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.629 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.114 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.266 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.371 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.314 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.086 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.317 | 0.003 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.202 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.367 | 0.024 |
| predicted_H | 0.668 | 0.039 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.121 | 0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | 0.015 |
| predicted_R | 0.378 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.355 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 0.998 | -0.088 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.317 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.195 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.366 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.647 | -0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.117 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.275 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.357 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.293 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.346 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 1.003 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.168 | 0.168 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.369 | 0.369 |
| H | 0.723 | -0.277 |
| HR | 0.135 | 0.135 |
| RBI | 0.369 | 0.369 |
| SO | 1.206 | 0.206 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.168 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.369 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.277 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.135 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.369 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.206 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.317 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | 0.025 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.366 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.353 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.117 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | 0.030 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.357 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.293 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.399 | 0.053 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.003 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.3333 | 0.4444 | 0.6000 | 0.3333 | 0.0667 | 0.0667 | 0.2000 | 0.1333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 0.1613 | 0.2778 | 0.2903 | 0.1613 | 0.0323 | 0.0645 | 0.1613 | 0.2258 |
| season | 0.60 | 35 | - | 116.000 | 22.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 11.000 | 13.000 | 12.000 | 38.000 | 0.1897 | 0.2656 | 0.3362 | 0.1897 | 0.0345 | 0.0948 | 0.1035 | 0.3276 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1520 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0030 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3210 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2195 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4050 |
| predicted_H | 0.7290 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1310 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3041 |
| predicted_R | 0.3880 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3850 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8630 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1430 | 0.1520 | 0.1466 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0030 | 0.0012 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3140 | 3.3210 | 3.3168 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1900 | 0.2195 | 0.2016 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3430 | 0.4050 | 0.3675 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6290 | 0.7290 | 0.6684 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1140 | 0.1310 | 0.1207 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2660 | 0.3041 | 0.2810 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3710 | 0.3880 | 0.3777 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3140 | 0.3040 | 0.3101 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3360 | 0.3850 | 0.3553 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0860 | 0.8630 | 0.9980 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 105 |
| Season rows before report date | 105 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 35 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669221 |
| playerID | 669221 |
| playerName | Sean Murphy |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.252 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.273 |
| sl_xba | 0.206 |
| sl_xslg | 0.332 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 26.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 5.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.228 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.235 | 0.000 | -0.235 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.050 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.025 | 4.000 | -1.025 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.297 | 0.000 | -0.297 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.133 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.144 | 0.000 | -0.144 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.280 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.195 | 0.000 | -1.195 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.179 | 0.000 | -0.179 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.322 | 0.000 | -0.322 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.525 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.553 | 0.000 | 0.447 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.690 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.599 | 0.000 | 0.401 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.487 | 0.000 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.493 | 0.000 | -0.493 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.772 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.818 | 1.000 | 1.182 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7720 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2280, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.0500 -> 3.0000 (deboost -2.0500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.5250 -> 0.6019 (boost 0.0769, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0500 -> 4.5264 (deboost -0.5236, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5107 -> 0.4487 (deboost -0.0620, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8 | predicted_SO: 0.7567 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2433, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.6139 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6139, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.034 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5698 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4302, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5956 (boost 0.5956, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.1859 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8141, better) | predicted_BB: 0.1704 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1704, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2640 -> 0.2758 (boost 0.0118, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "671739",
"player_name": "Michael Harris II",
"position": "CF",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.228,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 5.05,
"predicted_AVG": 0.253,
"predicted_BB": 0.133,
"predicted_H": 1.28,
"predicted_HR": 0.19,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 0.525,
"predicted_RBI": 0.69,
"predicted_SLG": 0.487,
"predicted_SO": 0.772
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2555,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 4.5264,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2902,
"predicted_BB": 0.1308,
"predicted_H": 1.29,
"predicted_HBP": 0.069,
"predicted_HR": 0.1773,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3488,
"predicted_R": 0.6019,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6485,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5107,
"predicted_SO": 0.7528
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.228,
"after": 0.2555,
"delta": 0.0275,
"percent_delta": 0.1206,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.05,
"after": 4.5264,
"delta": -0.5236,
"percent_delta": -0.1037,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.253,
"after": 0.2902,
"delta": 0.0372,
"percent_delta": 0.147,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.133,
"after": 0.1308,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.0165,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.28,
"after": 1.29,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0078,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.1773,
"delta": -0.0127,
"percent_delta": -0.0668,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4487,
"after": 0.449,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "higher",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2758,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2961,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4487,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.264,
"after": 0.2758,
"delta": 0.0118,
"percent_delta": 0.0449,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.2961,
"delta": -0.0049,
"percent_delta": -0.0163,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.449,
"after": 0.4487,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.264,
"after": 0.2758,
"delta": 0.0118,
"percent_delta": 0.0449,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.228,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.228,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.05,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -2.05,
"percent_delta": -0.4059,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.253,
"after": 0.2758,
"delta": 0.0228,
"percent_delta": 0.0901,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.133,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.133,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.28,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.28,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2961,
"delta": -0.0369,
"percent_delta": -0.1108,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.525,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.475,
"percent_delta": 0.9048,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.69,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.31,
"percent_delta": 0.4493,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.487,
"after": 0.4487,
"delta": -0.0383,
"percent_delta": -0.0786,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.772,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.228,
"percent_delta": 1.5907,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.772,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.228,
"percent_delta": 1.5907,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.05,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -2.05,
"percent_delta": -0.4059,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.228 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.050 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.133 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.280 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.525 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.690 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.487 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.772 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.256 | 0.027 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.526 | -0.524 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.290 | 0.037 |
| predicted_BB | 0.131 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.290 | 0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.069 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.177 | -0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.349 | 0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.602 | 0.077 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.648 | -0.041 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.511 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 0.753 | -0.019 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.256 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.526 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | -0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.130 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.249 | -0.041 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.069 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.172 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | -0.053 |
| predicted_R | 0.570 | -0.032 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.614 | -0.035 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.449 | -0.062 |
| predicted_SO | 0.757 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.034
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.186 | 0.186 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.170 | 0.170 |
| H | 1.008 | 0.008 |
| HR | 0.168 | 0.168 |
| RBI | 0.596 | 0.596 |
| SO | 1.062 | 0.062 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.814 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.170 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.008 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.168 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.404 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.062 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.256 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.526 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | -0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.130 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.249 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.172 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.430 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.614 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.449 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.243 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.4500 | 0.4762 | 0.7000 | 0.4500 | 0.0500 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 14.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.3684 | 0.4146 | 0.5526 | 0.3684 | 0.0263 | 0.1316 | 0.0526 | 0.1316 |
| season | 0.60 | 158 | - | 604.000 | 180.000 | 36.000 | 1.000 | 27.000 | 90.000 | 83.000 | 21.000 | 122.000 | 0.2980 | 0.3233 | 0.4950 | 0.2980 | 0.0447 | 0.1490 | 0.0348 | 0.2020 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2910 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8510 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3382 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1280 |
| predicted_H | 1.3030 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0690 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1610 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3691 |
| predicted_R | 0.7010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5950 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5412 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7280 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2280 | 0.2910 | 0.2555 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.0500 | 3.8510 | 4.5264 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2530 | 0.3382 | 0.2902 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1330 | 0.1280 | 0.1308 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2800 | 1.3030 | 1.2900 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0690 | 0.0690 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1900 | 0.1610 | 0.1773 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3330 | 0.3691 | 0.3488 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5250 | 0.7010 | 0.6019 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6900 | 0.5950 | 0.6485 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4870 | 0.5412 | 0.5107 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7720 | 0.7280 | 0.7528 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 599 |
| Season rows before report date | 599 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 158 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 1 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 671739 |
| playerID | 671739 |
| playerName | Michael Harris II |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.349 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.342 |
| sl_xba | 0.29 |
| sl_xslg | 0.477 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 10.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.184 | 0.000 | -0.184 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.946 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.224 | 1.000 | 1.776 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.179 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.174 | 0.000 | -0.174 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.369 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.286 | 0.000 | -0.286 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.388 | 0.000 | -0.388 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.041 | 0.000 | -0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.239 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.268 | 0.000 | -0.268 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.315 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.306 | 0.000 | -0.306 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.143 | 0.000 | -0.143 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.309 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.312 | 0.000 | -0.312 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.847 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.796 | 1.000 | 0.204 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.9460 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0540, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.3690 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3690, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.2400 -> 0.3308 (boost 0.0908, better) | predicted_AB: 2.9460 -> 2.8313 (deboost -0.1147, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.2957 -> 0.2087 (deboost -0.0870, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_AB: 2.8313 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.1687, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3364 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3364, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.102 HR/AB=0.014 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2848 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2848, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 0.6737 (boost 0.6737, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.4094 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5906, better) | predicted_H: 0.6737 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6737, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2087 -> 0.3660 (boost 0.1573, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3660 -> 0.2087 (deboost -0.1573, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "657041",
"player_name": "Lane Thomas",
"position": "LF",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.171,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.946,
"predicted_AVG": 0.179,
"predicted_BB": 0.369,
"predicted_H": 0.24,
"predicted_HR": 0.03,
"predicted_OBP": 0.239,
"predicted_R": 0.315,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1,
"predicted_SLG": 0.309,
"predicted_SO": 0.847
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1487,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 2.8313,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1747,
"predicted_BB": 0.3382,
"predicted_H": 0.3308,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.0416,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2452,
"predicted_R": 0.3009,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1441,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2957,
"predicted_SO": 0.8744
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.171,
"after": 0.1487,
"delta": -0.0223,
"percent_delta": -0.1304,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.946,
"after": 2.8313,
"delta": -0.1147,
"percent_delta": -0.0389,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.179,
"after": 0.1747,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.024,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.3382,
"delta": -0.0308,
"percent_delta": -0.0835,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.3308,
"delta": 0.0908,
"percent_delta": 0.3783,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0416,
"delta": 0.0116,
"percent_delta": 0.3867,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.239,
"after": 0.2452,
"delta": 0.0062,
"percent_delta": 0.0259,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.315,
"after": 0.3009,
"delta": -0.0141,
"percent_delta": -0.0448,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.1441,
"delta": 0.0441,
"percent_delta": 0.441,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.309,
"after": 0.2957,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -0.043,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.847,
"after": 0.8744,
"delta": 0.0274,
"percent_delta": 0.0323,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.3308,
"delta": 0.0908,
"percent_delta": 0.3783,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.946,
"after": 2.8313,
"delta": -0.1147,
"percent_delta": -0.0389,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 111
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1487,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 2.8313,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1131,
"predicted_BB": 0.3364,
"predicted_H": 0.3202,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.0404,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2073,
"predicted_R": 0.2848,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1364,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2087,
"predicted_SO": 0.8789
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1487,
"after": 0.1487,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.8313,
"after": 2.8313,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1747,
"after": 0.1131,
"delta": -0.0616,
"percent_delta": -0.3526,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3382,
"after": 0.3364,
"delta": -0.0018,
"percent_delta": -0.0053,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3308,
"after": 0.3202,
"delta": -0.0106,
"percent_delta": -0.032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.011,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0416,
"after": 0.0404,
"delta": -0.0012,
"percent_delta": -0.0288,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2452,
"after": 0.2073,
"delta": -0.0379,
"percent_delta": -0.1546,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3009,
"after": 0.2848,
"delta": -0.0161,
"percent_delta": -0.0535,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1441,
"after": 0.1364,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.0534,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2957,
"after": 0.2087,
"delta": -0.087,
"percent_delta": -0.2942,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8744,
"after": 0.8789,
"delta": 0.0045,
"percent_delta": 0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2957,
"after": 0.2087,
"delta": -0.087,
"percent_delta": -0.2942,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.102 HR/AB=0.014",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1487,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1487,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.8313,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.1687,
"percent_delta": 0.0596,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3364,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3364,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3202,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3202,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0404,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0404,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1364,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1364,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8789,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1211,
"percent_delta": 0.1378,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.8313,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.1687,
"percent_delta": 0.0596,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3364,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3364,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.2087,
"delta": -0.1573,
"percent_delta": -0.4298,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.171,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.171,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.946,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.054,
"percent_delta": 0.3578,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.179,
"after": 0.1131,
"delta": -0.0659,
"percent_delta": -0.3682,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.369,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.24,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.03,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.239,
"after": 0.2073,
"delta": -0.0317,
"percent_delta": -0.1326,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.315,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.315,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.309,
"after": 0.2087,
"delta": -0.1003,
"percent_delta": -0.3246,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.847,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.153,
"percent_delta": 0.1806,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.946,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.054,
"percent_delta": 0.3578,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.369,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.946 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.179 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.369 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.239 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.315 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.309 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.847 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | -0.022 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.831 | -0.115 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.175 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.338 | -0.031 |
| predicted_H | 0.331 | 0.091 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.042 | 0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.245 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.301 | -0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.144 | 0.044 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.296 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.874 | 0.027 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.831 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.113 | -0.062 |
| predicted_BB | 0.336 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.320 | -0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.207 | -0.038 |
| predicted_R | 0.285 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.136 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.209 | -0.087 |
| predicted_SO | 0.879 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.102 HR/AB=0.014
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.150 | 0.150 |
| 3B | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| BB | 0.409 | 0.409 |
| H | 0.674 | 0.674 |
| HR | 0.105 | 0.105 |
| RBI | 0.350 | 0.350 |
| SO | 1.078 | 0.078 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.591 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.674 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.105 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.350 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.078 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.149 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.169 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.214 | 0.101 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.336 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.320 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.040 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | 0.103 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.285 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.366 | 0.157 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.121 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 10.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.0000 | 0.0909 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.6000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 21.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.1429 | 0.2174 | 0.1905 | 0.1429 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0952 | 0.2857 |
| season | 0.60 | 111 | - | 327.000 | 73.000 | 19.000 | 0.000 | 11.000 | 39.000 | 35.000 | 41.000 | 94.000 | 0.2232 | 0.3127 | 0.3823 | 0.2232 | 0.0336 | 0.1193 | 0.1254 | 0.2875 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1190 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 2.6780 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1689 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2970 |
| predicted_H | 0.4520 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0570 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2535 |
| predicted_R | 0.2820 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2779 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9110 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1710 | 0.1190 | 0.1487 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.9460 | 2.6780 | 2.8313 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1790 | 0.1689 | 0.1747 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3690 | 0.2970 | 0.3382 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.2400 | 0.4520 | 0.3308 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0110 | 0.0110 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 | 0.0570 | 0.0416 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2390 | 0.2535 | 0.2452 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3150 | 0.2820 | 0.3009 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1000 | 0.2030 | 0.1441 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3090 | 0.2779 | 0.2957 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8470 | 0.9110 | 0.8744 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 49 |
| Season rows before report date | 49 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 111 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 657041 |
| note | Struck out for Kim, Ha in the 8th. |
| playerID | 657041 |
| playerName | Lane Thomas |
| pos | LF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.313 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.311 |
| sl_xba | 0.238 |
| sl_xslg | 0.365 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.123 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.137 | 0.000 | -0.137 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.660 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.612 | 4.000 | -0.612 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.227 | 0.000 | -0.227 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.315 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 | -0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.730 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.818 | 0.000 | -0.818 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.117 | 0.000 | -0.117 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.293 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.302 | 0.000 | -0.302 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.407 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.431 | 0.000 | 0.569 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.500 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.479 | 0.000 | 0.521 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.369 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.369 | 0.000 | -0.369 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.235 | 1.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.262 | 2.000 | -0.262 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.4070 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5930, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7300 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7300, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.3150 -> 0.3735 (boost 0.0585, better) | predicted_AB: 3.6600 -> 3.5704 (deboost -0.0896, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2968 -> 0.2671 (deboost -0.0297, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.6812 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3188, better) | predicted_AB: 3.5704 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.5704, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.175 HR/AB=0.047 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3861 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3861, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4368 (boost 0.4368, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6794 (deboost -0.3206, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 1.3689 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.6311, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4368 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4368, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2671 -> 0.2830 (boost 0.0159, better) | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3530 -> 0.3700 (boost 0.0170, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.2830 -> 0.2671 (deboost -0.0159, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663586",
"player_name": "Austin Riley",
"position": "3B",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.123,
"predicted_3B": 0.012,
"predicted_AB": 3.66,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2,
"predicted_BB": 0.315,
"predicted_H": 0.73,
"predicted_HR": 0.18,
"predicted_OBP": 0.293,
"predicted_R": 0.407,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5,
"predicted_SLG": 0.369,
"predicted_SO": 1.235
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1025,
"predicted_3B": 0.0103,
"predicted_AB": 3.5704,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1973,
"predicted_BB": 0.3735,
"predicted_H": 0.7038,
"predicted_HBP": 0.104,
"predicted_HR": 0.1774,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2968,
"predicted_R": 0.4079,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5083,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3702,
"predicted_SO": 1.1782
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.123,
"after": 0.1025,
"delta": -0.0205,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4368,
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"delta": -0.4368,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"before": 1.3689,
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"delta": 0.6311,
"percent_delta": 0.461,
"direction": "boost",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.204,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.283,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.353,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 3,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"projection_effect": "better",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "higher",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1908,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2671,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.37,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.283,
"after": 0.2671,
"delta": -0.0159,
"percent_delta": -0.0563,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.353,
"after": 0.37,
"delta": 0.017,
"percent_delta": 0.0482,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.0159,
"percent_delta": -0.0563,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.123,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.123,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.012,
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"delta": -0.012,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.66,
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"delta": -0.66,
"percent_delta": -0.1803,
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},
{
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"percent_delta": -0.046,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.315,
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"delta": -0.315,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.73,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.73,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
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"delta": -0.18,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.293,
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"delta": -0.0259,
"percent_delta": -0.0884,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.407,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.593,
"percent_delta": 1.457,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.37,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.0027,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.235,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.235,
"percent_delta": -0.1903,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.407,
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"delta": 0.593,
"percent_delta": 1.457,
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.73,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.73,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.123 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.660 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.315 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.730 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.293 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.407 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.369 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.235 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.102 | -0.021 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.570 | -0.090 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.197 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.373 | 0.058 |
| predicted_H | 0.704 | -0.026 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.104 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.177 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.297 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.408 | 0.001 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.508 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.370 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.178 | -0.057 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.102 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.570 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.191 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.372 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.681 | -0.023 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.104 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.172 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.267 | -0.030 |
| predicted_R | 0.386 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.481 | -0.027 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.370 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.184 | 0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.175 HR/AB=0.047
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.135 | 0.135 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.336 | 0.336 |
| H | 0.679 | -0.321 |
| HR | 0.115 | 0.115 |
| RBI | 0.437 | 0.437 |
| SO | 1.369 | 0.369 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.135 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.336 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.321 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.115 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.631 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.102 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.570 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.204 | 0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.372 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.319 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.172 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | 0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.386 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.481 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.353 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.184 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 0.1250 | 0.3333 | 0.3125 | 0.1250 | 0.0625 | 0.1875 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 11.000 | 0.1765 | 0.2927 | 0.4412 | 0.1765 | 0.0882 | 0.1765 | 0.1471 | 0.3235 |
| season | 0.60 | 162 | - | 572.000 | 125.000 | 20.000 | 2.000 | 20.000 | 75.000 | 66.000 | 51.000 | 200.000 | 0.2185 | 0.2938 | 0.3654 | 0.2185 | 0.0350 | 0.1311 | 0.0892 | 0.3497 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0760 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4550 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1939 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4490 |
| predicted_H | 0.6700 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1040 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1740 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3017 |
| predicted_R | 0.4090 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5190 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3717 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1050 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1230 | 0.0760 | 0.1025 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 | 0.0080 | 0.0103 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6600 | 3.4550 | 3.5704 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2000 | 0.1939 | 0.1973 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3150 | 0.4490 | 0.3735 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7300 | 0.6700 | 0.7038 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1040 | 0.1040 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1800 | 0.1740 | 0.1774 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2930 | 0.3017 | 0.2968 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4070 | 0.4090 | 0.4079 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5000 | 0.5190 | 0.5083 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3690 | 0.3717 | 0.3702 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.2350 | 1.1050 | 1.1782 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 606 |
| Season rows before report date | 606 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 162 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 1 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663586 |
| playerID | 663586 |
| playerName | Austin Riley |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.29 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.299 |
| sl_xba | 0.213 |
| sl_xslg | 0.396 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.300 | 1.000 | -0.300 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.300 | 0.000 | 0.700 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 2.050 | 3.100 | 2.950 | 1.900 |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.300 | 2.000 | 2.700 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 4.3333 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.6667, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | starter_usage_guardrail | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 4.3333 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.6667, better) | - | Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "678061",
"player_name": "Ray Kerr",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.3333,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
"description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.6667,
"percent_delta": 0.1538,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.6667,
"percent_delta": 0.1538,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.6667,
"percent_delta": 0.1539,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.6667,
"percent_delta": 0.1539,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 4.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | - |
Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | 0.667 |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 11.200 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.7714 | 0.6857 | 0.0857 | 0.5143 | 0.1714 | 0.6000 | 0.0857 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 21.200 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 13.000 | 2.000 | 1.2462 | 0.6000 | 0.1385 | 0.4615 | 0.1385 | 0.6000 | 0.0923 |
| season | 0.20 | 10 | 21.200 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 13.000 | 2.000 | 1.2462 | 0.6000 | 0.1385 | 0.4615 | 0.1385 | 0.6000 | 0.0923 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.9120 |
| predicted_ER | 1.0690 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.8969 |
| predicted_H | 2.4960 |
| predicted_HR | 0.3980 |
| predicted_IP | 3.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 2.5760 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0261 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.9120 | 0.3893 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 1.0690 | 1.0295 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.8969 | 2.8969 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 2.4960 | 2.2117 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.3980 | 0.7430 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 4.1000 | 3.1000 | 4.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 4.0000 | 2.5760 | 3.3921 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0261 | 1.0261 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 10 |
| Season rows before report date | 10 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 10 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.0 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 4 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 18 |
| Pitches | 77 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 12 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 3 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 4 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 3.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 47 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 29 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261001_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 678061 |
| playerID | 678061 |
| playerName | Ray Kerr |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-01 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.209 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.281 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.899917917 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.208475625 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.344 | 0.000 | -0.344 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.344 | 0.000 | -0.344 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 1.049 | 0.000 | -0.049 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.157 | 1.000 | -0.157 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.574 | 0.000 | -0.574 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "800311",
"player_name": "Didier Fuentes",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 5.4000 | 1.8000 | 0.6000 | 1.8000 | 0.0000 | 0.6000 | 0.4000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 13.000 | 5.000 | 14.000 | 2.000 | 14.000 | 3.000 | 3.4615 | 1.2308 | 0.3846 | 1.0769 | 0.1538 | 1.0769 | 0.2308 |
| season | 0.20 | 60 | 75.200 | 21.000 | 64.000 | 20.000 | 93.000 | 7.000 | 2.4978 | 1.1101 | 0.2775 | 0.8458 | 0.2643 | 1.2291 | 0.0925 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1970 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5380 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.2550 |
| predicted_H | 1.4420 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2820 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0280 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4387 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1970 | 0.1078 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.5380 | 0.2945 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.2550 | 4.2550 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 1.4420 | 1.2420 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.2820 | 0.1544 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.0280 | 1.0153 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4387 | 1.4387 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 61 |
| Season rows before report date | 61 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 60 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 13 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 9 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261001_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 800311 |
| playerID | 800311 |
| playerName | Didier Fuentes |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-10-01 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.269 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.275 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.508901348 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.351390506 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.279 | 0.000 | -0.279 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.279 | 0.000 | -0.279 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.820 | 1.000 | -0.820 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.982 | 1.000 | 0.118 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.049 | 0.000 | -0.049 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "628452",
"player_name": "Raisel Iglesias",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.6000 | 0.0000 | 0.6000 | 0.0000 | 0.8000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.9000 | 0.7000 | 0.1000 | 0.6000 | 0.1000 | 1.0000 | 0.1000 |
| season | 0.20 | 61 | 62.000 | 17.000 | 50.000 | 17.000 | 64.000 | 6.000 | 2.4677 | 1.0806 | 0.2742 | 0.8065 | 0.2742 | 1.0323 | 0.0968 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1710 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2090 |
| predicted_ERA | 1.8773 |
| predicted_H | 0.7380 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0810 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9210 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.9089 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1710 | 0.0908 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2090 | 0.1110 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 1.8773 | 1.8773 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.7380 | 0.3921 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0810 | 0.0430 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.9210 | 0.9580 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.9089 | 0.9089 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 61 |
| Season rows before report date | 61 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 61 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 17 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 9 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 628452 |
| playerID | 628452 |
| playerName | Raisel Iglesias |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.274 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.289 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.155392051 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.686712949 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.233 | 0.000 | 1.767 | 2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.342 | 2.000 | 2.658 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 0.685 | 2.000 | 1.315 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.200 | 1.000 | 0.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.819 | 0.200 | 0.181 | 0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.082 | 1.000 | -1.082 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 0.1000 -> 0.2000 (boost 0.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 0.1000 -> 0.2000 (boost 0.1000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "669276",
"player_name": "Dylan Lee",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.200 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 5.7857 | 1.2857 | 0.6429 | 1.0714 | 0.2143 | 0.8571 | 0.4286 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 9.000 | 14.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 9.0000 | 1.7778 | 1.0000 | 1.5556 | 0.2222 | 0.6667 | 0.2222 |
| season | 0.20 | 72 | 68.200 | 23.000 | 47.000 | 16.000 | 79.000 | 5.000 | 3.0146 | 0.9175 | 0.3350 | 0.6845 | 0.2330 | 1.1505 | 0.0728 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2170 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5420 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.9008 |
| predicted_H | 0.9220 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2060 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7190 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3789 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 0.2170 | 1.0377 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 0.5420 | 1.6733 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.9008 | 5.9008 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 0.9220 | 1.4182 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.2060 | 0.5715 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.7190 | 0.3881 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3789 | 1.3789 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 73 |
| Season rows before report date | 73 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 72 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 6 |
| Pitches | 22 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 10.80 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 15 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | BS |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669276 |
| playerID | 669276 |
| playerName | Dylan Lee |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.248 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.252 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.001041951 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.192195092 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Blake Snell |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.8478 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0332 |
| Avg Velo | 89.2707 |
| Avg Spin | 2341.8446 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5.1000 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 3 |
| Pre SO | 9 |
| Season ERA | 1.8984 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1016 |
| Role Avg IP | 4.7410 |
| Recent Avg IP | 4.3330 |
| Last Start IP | 4 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6173,
"runs_scored": 801.0,
"runs_allowed": 600.0,
"run_differential": 201.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
"offense_index": 1.1009,
"defense_index": 1.2126,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
"run_differential": 28.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3566
},
"opponent": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.0198,
"defense_index": 1.1622,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1559
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.2007,
"offense_edge": 0.1009,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0198,
"defense_strength": 0.2126,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1622,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0136,
"run_prevention": 0.9719,
"strikeout": 1.0044
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 156.0,
"k_percent": 31.8,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.245,
"xwoba": 0.228,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 15.8,
"avg_best_speed": 71.9158,
"avg_hyper_speed": 91.063,
"whiff_percent": 34.8,
"swing_percent": 49.7
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.8318,
"command_and_miss": 1.1036,
"regression_edge": 0.4857,
"xwoba_edge": 2.4,
"barrel_edge": 1.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
"whiff_edge": 1.3714,
"bb_edge": 0.0,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0332
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 82,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.27067101921558,
"release_spin_rate": 2341.8445698453625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.27067101921558,
"release_spin_rate": 2341.8445698453625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.2707,
"release_spin_rate": 2341.8446,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0332,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.2374,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.8478,
"sample_weight": 0.624,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9279,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0688,
"walk_factor": 1.0,
"homer_factor": 0.835,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.017,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "605483",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.955,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 0.955,
"adjusted": 4
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.897,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 6.0,
"factor": 1.0429,
"adjusted": 6
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 42.2,
"ER": 9,
"H": 31,
"BB": 16,
"SO": 55,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 1.8984374999999998,
"WHIP": 1.1015624999999998,
"K9": 11.601562499999998,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 9,
"quality_starts": 4,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 9,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 9,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 82,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.27067101921558,
"release_spin_rate": 2341.8445698453625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.27067101921558,
"release_spin_rate": 2341.8445698453625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.2707,
"release_spin_rate": 2341.8446,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0332,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.2374,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.6164383561643836,
"last_10": 0.3835616438356164
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6429,
"prior_weight": 0.3571
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "605483",
"report_date": "20261004",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 9,
"reference_playing_time": 5.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 21.2,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 18.0,
"BB": 7.0,
"SO": 29.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 86.0,
"Pitches": 396.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 3.6,
"BB": 1.4,
"SO": 5.8,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 17.2,
"Pitches": 79.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.2462,
"WHIP": 1.1538,
"ER_per_IP": 0.13846,
"H_per_IP": 0.83077,
"BB_per_IP": 0.32308,
"SO_per_IP": 1.33846,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 9,
"totals": {
"IP": 42.2,
"ER": 9.0,
"R": 10.0,
"H": 31.0,
"BB": 16.0,
"SO": 55.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 173.0,
"Pitches": 741.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.2,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.1111,
"H": 3.4444,
"BB": 1.7778,
"SO": 6.1111,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 19.2222,
"Pitches": 82.3333
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.8984,
"WHIP": 1.1016,
"ER_per_IP": 0.21094,
"H_per_IP": 0.72656,
"BB_per_IP": 0.375,
"SO_per_IP": 1.28906,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 9,
"totals": {
"IP": 42.2,
"ER": 9.0,
"R": 10.0,
"H": 31.0,
"BB": 16.0,
"SO": 55.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 173.0,
"Pitches": 741.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.2,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.1111,
"H": 3.4444,
"BB": 1.7778,
"SO": 6.1111,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 19.2222,
"Pitches": 82.3333
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.8984,
"WHIP": 1.1016,
"ER_per_IP": 0.21094,
"H_per_IP": 0.72656,
"BB_per_IP": 0.375,
"SO_per_IP": 1.28906,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.418,
"predicted_H": 4.206,
"predicted_BB": 1.742,
"predicted_SO": 5.779,
"predicted_HR": 0.258,
"predicted_ERA": 2.6084,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2159
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5009,
"form_weight": 0.4991,
"form_reliability": 0.6429,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6429,
"prior_weight": 0.3571
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.2,
"form": 5.0,
"final": 5.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.418,
"final": 1.2086,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 4.206,
"final": 3.1011,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 1.742,
"final": 2.3721,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 9.0,
"form": 5.779,
"final": 7.3923,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.258,
"final": 0.1288,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.6084,
"final": 2.6084,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2159,
"final": 1.2159,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Edwin Díaz |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0796 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.1928 |
| Avg Velo | 93.3073 |
| Avg Spin | 2308.9177 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 7.2321 |
| Season WHIP | 1.7679 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9330 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6173,
"runs_scored": 801.0,
"runs_allowed": 600.0,
"run_differential": 201.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
"offense_index": 1.1009,
"defense_index": 1.2126,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
"run_differential": 28.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3566
},
"opponent": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.0198,
"defense_index": 1.1622,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1559
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.2007,
"offense_edge": 0.1009,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0198,
"defense_strength": 0.2126,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1622,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0136,
"run_prevention": 0.9719,
"strikeout": 1.0044
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 76.0,
"k_percent": 29.2,
"bb_percent": 11.5,
"woba": 0.4,
"xwoba": 0.328,
"sweet_spot_percent": 42.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 46.3,
"avg_best_speed": 80.2542,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.7749,
"whiff_percent": 24.9,
"swing_percent": 44.8
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.8523,
"command_and_miss": 0.3264,
"regression_edge": 2.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.4571,
"barrel_edge": -0.0667,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.2,
"whiff_edge": -0.0429,
"bb_edge": -0.575,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1928
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 23,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 23,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 93.30728583885033,
"release_spin_rate": 2308.917669666491,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 23,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 93.30728583885033,
"release_spin_rate": 2308.917669666491,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 93.3073,
"release_spin_rate": 2308.9177,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1928,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.3773,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.0796,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0068,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0175,
"walk_factor": 1.0207,
"homer_factor": 1.0302,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.072,
"regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "621242",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0031,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0031,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0093,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0136,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.0079,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 7,
"H": 11,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 14,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 6.517241379310345,
"WHIP": 1.5517241379310345,
"K9": 13.03448275862069,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-27T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 23,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 23,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 93.30728583885033,
"release_spin_rate": 2308.917669666491,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 23,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 93.30728583885033,
"release_spin_rate": 2308.917669666491,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 93.3073,
"release_spin_rate": 2308.9177,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1928,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.3773,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 3.849,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.435,
"prior_weight": 0.565
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "621242",
"report_date": "20261004",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 20,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 17.0,
"Pitches": 83.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.2,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 1.8,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.4,
"Pitches": 16.6
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.4,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.2,
"BB_per_IP": 0.2,
"SO_per_IP": 1.8,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 7.0,
"R": 7.0,
"H": 11.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 14.0,
"HR": 0.0,
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"Pitches": 192.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.7,
"R": 0.7,
"H": 1.1,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.4,
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},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.72414,
"H_per_IP": 1.13793,
"BB_per_IP": 0.41379,
"SO_per_IP": 1.44828,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 20,
"totals": {
"IP": 18.2,
"ER": 15.0,
"R": 15.0,
"H": 23.0,
"BB": 10.0,
"SO": 28.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 92.0,
"Pitches": 382.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.75,
"R": 0.75,
"H": 1.15,
"BB": 0.5,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.15,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.7679,
"ER_per_IP": 0.80357,
"H_per_IP": 1.23214,
"BB_per_IP": 0.53571,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.16071
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.47,
"predicted_H": 0.876,
"predicted_BB": 0.363,
"predicted_SO": 1.23,
"predicted_HR": 0.097,
"predicted_ERA": 4.2264,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2388
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5887,
"form_weight": 0.4113,
"form_reliability": 0.435,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 3.849,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.435,
"prior_weight": 0.565
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
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"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.47,
"final": 0.782,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.876,
"final": 1.5377,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.363,
"final": 0.1493,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.23,
"final": 1.0946,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.097,
"final": 0.0399,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.2264,
"final": 4.2264,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2388,
"final": 1.2388,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Evan Phillips |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0340 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.1410 |
| Avg Velo | 92.3821 |
| Avg Spin | 2484.0896 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.4177 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1013 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.8230 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
"win_pct": 0.6173,
"runs_scored": 801.0,
"runs_allowed": 600.0,
"run_differential": 201.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
"offense_index": 1.1009,
"defense_index": 1.2126,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
"run_differential": 28.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3566
},
"opponent": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
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"pitcher_id": "623465",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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},
"components": {
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},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
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"pitcher_id": "623465",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 17,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
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},
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},
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},
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}{
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"primary_pitch": {
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}{
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}
}{
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}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Tanner Scott |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6728 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 2.9378 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0104 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9190 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.9330 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
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"wins": 100,
"losses": 62,
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},
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"strikeout": 1.0044
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "656945",
"profile": {
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"pitcher_id": "656945",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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},
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},
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}
},
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},
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}
}
}{
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"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
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"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"HR": 1,
"ERA": 5.3999999999999995,
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"HR9": 1.0799999999999998,
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},
"fielding": {
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},
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"latest_game_date": "2026-10-03T00:00:00"
}{
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"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
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},
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},
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},
"role": "pitcher",
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"player_id": "656945",
"report_date": "20261004",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 70,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
"H_per_IP": 0.64286,
"BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
"SO_per_IP": 1.28571,
"HR_per_IP": 0.21429
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 8.1,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 15.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 38.0,
"Pitches": 145.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.5,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 0.9,
"BB": 0.3,
"SO": 1.5,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 14.5
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.4,
"WHIP": 1.44,
"ER_per_IP": 0.6,
"H_per_IP": 1.08,
"BB_per_IP": 0.36,
"SO_per_IP": 1.8,
"HR_per_IP": 0.12
}
},
"season": {
"games": 70,
"totals": {
"IP": 64.1,
"ER": 21.0,
"R": 22.0,
"H": 50.0,
"BB": 15.0,
"SO": 82.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 255.0,
"Pitches": 975.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.3143,
"H": 0.7143,
"BB": 0.2143,
"SO": 1.1714,
"HR": 0.0714,
"BF": 3.6429,
"Pitches": 13.9286
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.9378,
"WHIP": 1.0104,
"ER_per_IP": 0.32642,
"H_per_IP": 0.7772,
"BB_per_IP": 0.23316,
"SO_per_IP": 1.27461,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07772
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.44,
"predicted_H": 0.793,
"predicted_BB": 0.274,
"predicted_SO": 1.207,
"predicted_HR": 0.139,
"predicted_ERA": 4.322,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1662
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4656,
"form_weight": 0.5344,
"form_reliability": 0.7263,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.267,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7263,
"prior_weight": 0.2737
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.44,
"final": 0.2351,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.793,
"final": 0.4237,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.274,
"final": 0.1464,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.207,
"final": 1.5763,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.139,
"final": 0.0743,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.322,
"final": 4.322,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1662,
"final": 1.1662,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.185 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.186 | 0.000 | -0.186 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.033 | 0.000 | -0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.867 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.902 | 4.000 | 0.098 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.274 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.279 | 0.250 | -0.279 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.600 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.638 | 0.000 | -0.638 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.059 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.088 | 1.000 | -1.088 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.222 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.231 | 0.000 | -0.231 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.371 | 0.000 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.384 | 0.250 | -0.384 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.652 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.690 | 0.000 | -0.690 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.585 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.632 | 0.000 | -0.632 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.510 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.521 | 0.250 | -0.521 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.119 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.134 | 0.000 | -1.134 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.8670 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.1330, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.1190 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1190, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | predicted_R: 0.6520 -> 0.5686 (deboost -0.0834, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5268 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4732, better) | predicted_BB: 0.5350 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5350, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.048 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5844 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4156, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4437 (boost 0.4437, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5623 (deboost -0.4377, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_HR: 0.1904 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8096, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1651 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1651, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4250 -> 0.4676 (boost 0.0426, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "660271",
"player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
"position": "DH",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.185,
"predicted_3B": 0.03,
"predicted_AB": 3.867,
"predicted_AVG": 0.274,
"predicted_BB": 0.6,
"predicted_H": 1.059,
"predicted_HR": 0.222,
"predicted_OBP": 0.371,
"predicted_R": 0.652,
"predicted_RBI": 0.585,
"predicted_SLG": 0.51,
"predicted_SO": 1.119
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1789,
"predicted_3B": 0.0248,
"predicted_AB": 3.8962,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2626,
"predicted_BB": 0.5297,
"predicted_H": 1.0223,
"predicted_HBP": 0.07,
"predicted_HR": 0.1845,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3529,
"predicted_R": 0.5686,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5126,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4638,
"predicted_SO": 1.1605
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.185,
"after": 0.1789,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0248,
"delta": -0.0052,
"percent_delta": -0.1733,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.867,
"after": 3.8962,
"delta": 0.0292,
"percent_delta": 0.0076,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.274,
"after": 0.2626,
"delta": -0.0114,
"percent_delta": -0.0416,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.5297,
"delta": -0.0703,
"percent_delta": -0.1172,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.059,
"after": 1.0223,
"delta": -0.0367,
"percent_delta": -0.0347,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.222,
"after": 0.1845,
"delta": -0.0375,
"percent_delta": -0.1689,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.371,
"after": 0.3529,
"delta": -0.0181,
"percent_delta": -0.0488,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.652,
"after": 0.5686,
"delta": -0.0834,
"percent_delta": -0.1279,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.585,
"after": 0.5126,
"delta": -0.0724,
"percent_delta": -0.1238,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 0.4638,
"delta": -0.0462,
"percent_delta": -0.0906,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.119,
"after": 1.1605,
"delta": 0.0415,
"percent_delta": 0.0371,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.652,
"after": 0.5686,
"delta": -0.0834,
"percent_delta": -0.1279,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 135
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1789,
"predicted_3B": 0.0248,
"predicted_AB": 3.8962,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2661,
"predicted_BB": 0.535,
"predicted_H": 1.0367,
"predicted_HBP": 0.07,
"predicted_HR": 0.1856,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3547,
"predicted_R": 0.5844,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5268,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4676,
"predicted_SO": 1.1488
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1789,
"after": 0.1789,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0248,
"after": 0.0248,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8962,
"after": 3.8962,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2626,
"after": 0.2661,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0133,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5297,
"after": 0.535,
"delta": 0.0053,
"percent_delta": 0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0223,
"after": 1.0367,
"delta": 0.0144,
"percent_delta": 0.0141,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.07,
"after": 0.07,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1845,
"after": 0.1856,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": 0.006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3529,
"after": 0.3547,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5686,
"after": 0.5844,
"delta": 0.0158,
"percent_delta": 0.0278,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5126,
"after": 0.5268,
"delta": 0.0142,
"percent_delta": 0.0277,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4638,
"after": 0.4676,
"delta": 0.0038,
"percent_delta": 0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1605,
"after": 1.1488,
"delta": -0.0117,
"percent_delta": -0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.048",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1789,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0248,
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{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"percent_delta": 0.0266,
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{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": -0.0367,
"percent_delta": -0.0354,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": -0.07,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1856,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.4732,
"percent_delta": 0.8983,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": -0.1488,
"percent_delta": -0.1295,
"direction": "deboost",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.535,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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"percent_delta": -0.0288,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.6,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.059,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.059,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.222,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.222,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.371,
"after": 0.3547,
"delta": -0.0163,
"percent_delta": -0.0439,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.652,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.652,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.585,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.585,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 0.4676,
"delta": -0.0424,
"percent_delta": -0.0831,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.119,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.119,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.867,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.133,
"percent_delta": 0.0344,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.119,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.119,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.185 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.867 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.274 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.600 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.059 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.222 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.371 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.652 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.585 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.510 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.119 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | -0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.896 | 0.029 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.530 | -0.070 |
| predicted_H | 1.022 | -0.037 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.070 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.184 | -0.038 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.353 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 0.569 | -0.083 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.513 | -0.072 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.464 | -0.046 |
| predicted_SO | 1.161 | 0.042 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.896 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.535 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 1.037 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.070 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.186 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.355 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.584 | 0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.527 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.468 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.149 | -0.012 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.048
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.165 | 0.165 |
| 3B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.444 | 0.444 |
| H | 0.896 | -0.104 |
| HR | 0.190 | 0.190 |
| RBI | 0.562 | -0.438 |
| SO | 1.133 | 0.133 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.165 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.556 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.104 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.810 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.438 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.133 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.179 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.025 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.104 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | -0.037 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.535 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.037 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.186 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | -0.042 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.416 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.473 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | -0.043 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.149 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.2381 | 0.2381 | 0.2857 | 0.2381 | 0.0000 | 0.0476 | 0.0000 | 0.2857 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 16.000 | 0.1795 | 0.2889 | 0.2051 | 0.1795 | 0.0000 | 0.0256 | 0.1026 | 0.4103 |
| season | 0.60 | 135 | - | 522.000 | 143.000 | 25.000 | 4.000 | 30.000 | 79.000 | 88.000 | 81.000 | 151.000 | 0.2739 | 0.3756 | 0.5096 | 0.2740 | 0.0575 | 0.1513 | 0.1552 | 0.2893 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1710 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0180 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9340 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2479 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4390 |
| predicted_H | 0.9750 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0700 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1360 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3296 |
| predicted_R | 0.4610 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4190 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4041 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2140 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1850 | 0.1710 | 0.1789 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0300 | 0.0180 | 0.0248 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8670 | 3.9340 | 3.8962 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2740 | 0.2479 | 0.2626 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.6000 | 0.4390 | 0.5297 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0590 | 0.9750 | 1.0223 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0700 | 0.0700 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2220 | 0.1360 | 0.1845 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3710 | 0.3296 | 0.3529 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6520 | 0.4610 | 0.5686 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5850 | 0.4190 | 0.5126 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5100 | 0.4041 | 0.4638 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1190 | 1.2140 | 1.1605 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 603 |
| Season rows before report date | 603 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 135 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 660271 |
| playerID | 660271 |
| playerName | Shohei Ohtani |
| pos | TWP |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.377 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.397 |
| sl_xba | 0.286 |
| sl_xslg | 0.552 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 16.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 52.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 93.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.137 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.139 | 0.000 | -0.139 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.960 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.662 | 4.000 | 0.338 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.267 | 0.500 | -0.017 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.331 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.377 | 0.000 | -0.377 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.070 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.976 | 2.000 | 0.024 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.230 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.131 | 1.000 | 0.869 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.338 | 0.500 | -0.088 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.540 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.556 | 2.000 | 0.444 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.660 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.551 | 2.000 | 2.449 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.472 | 1.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.421 | 1.250 | 0.579 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.089 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.092 | 2.000 | -1.092 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.6600 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.3400, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0890 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0890, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_SO: 1.0890 -> 1.1518 (boost 0.0628, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.9600 -> 3.8084 (deboost -0.1516, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4782 -> 0.4918 (boost 0.0136, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.6142 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3858, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2788 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2788, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.055 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5723 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4277, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3277 (boost 0.3277, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5002 (deboost -0.4998, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5002 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4998, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3277 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3277, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4918 -> 0.3980 (deboost -0.0938, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3980 -> 0.4918 (boost 0.0938, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "606192",
"player_name": "Teoscar Hernández",
"position": "LF",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.137,
"predicted_3B": 0.016,
"predicted_AB": 3.96,
"predicted_AVG": 0.269,
"predicted_BB": 0.331,
"predicted_H": 1.07,
"predicted_HR": 0.23,
"predicted_OBP": 0.315,
"predicted_R": 0.54,
"predicted_RBI": 0.66,
"predicted_SLG": 0.472,
"predicted_SO": 1.089
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1409,
"predicted_3B": 0.0134,
"predicted_AB": 3.8084,
"predicted_AVG": 0.271,
"predicted_BB": 0.276,
"predicted_H": 1.0345,
"predicted_HBP": 0.078,
"predicted_HR": 0.2174,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3194,
"predicted_R": 0.5569,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5976,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4782,
"predicted_SO": 1.1518
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.137,
"after": 0.1409,
"delta": 0.0039,
"percent_delta": 0.0285,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0134,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.1625,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.96,
"after": 3.8084,
"delta": -0.1516,
"percent_delta": -0.0383,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.269,
"after": 0.271,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": 0.0074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.331,
"after": 0.276,
"delta": -0.055,
"percent_delta": -0.1662,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.07,
"after": 1.0345,
"delta": -0.0355,
"percent_delta": -0.0332,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.2174,
"delta": -0.0126,
"percent_delta": -0.0548,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.315,
"after": 0.3194,
"delta": 0.0044,
"percent_delta": 0.014,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.54,
"after": 0.5569,
"delta": 0.0169,
"percent_delta": 0.0313,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 0.5976,
"delta": -0.0624,
"percent_delta": -0.0945,
"direction": "deboost",
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4918,
"after": 0.398,
"delta": -0.0938,
"percent_delta": -0.1907,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2755,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3249,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4918,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.2755,
"delta": 0.0465,
"percent_delta": 0.2029,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.299,
"after": 0.3249,
"delta": 0.0259,
"percent_delta": 0.0866,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.398,
"after": 0.4918,
"delta": 0.0938,
"percent_delta": 0.2356,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.398,
"after": 0.4918,
"delta": 0.0938,
"percent_delta": 0.2356,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.137,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.137,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.96,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.04,
"percent_delta": 0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.269,
"after": 0.2755,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0242,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.331,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.331,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.07,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.07,
"percent_delta": -0.0654,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.77,
"percent_delta": 3.3478,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.315,
"after": 0.3249,
"delta": 0.0099,
"percent_delta": 0.0314,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.54,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.46,
"percent_delta": 0.8519,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.34,
"percent_delta": 3.5455,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.472,
"after": 0.4918,
"delta": 0.0198,
"percent_delta": 0.0419,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.089,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.089,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.34,
"percent_delta": 3.5455,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.089,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.089,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.137 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.960 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.331 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.070 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.230 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.540 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.660 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.472 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.089 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.141 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.808 | -0.152 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.271 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.276 | -0.055 |
| predicted_H | 1.034 | -0.036 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.078 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.217 | -0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.557 | 0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.598 | -0.062 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.478 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 1.152 | 0.063 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.141 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.808 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.279 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.049 | 0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.078 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.219 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.572 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.614 | 0.017 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.492 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 1.140 | -0.012 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.055
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.163 | 0.163 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.328 | 0.328 |
| H | 0.829 | -0.171 |
| HR | 0.143 | 0.143 |
| RBI | 0.500 | -0.500 |
| SO | 1.087 | 0.087 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.163 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.328 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.171 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.143 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.500 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.087 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.141 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.192 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | -0.047 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.279 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.049 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.219 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | -0.026 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.428 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.386 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.398 | -0.094 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.140 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 8.000 | 0.2353 | 0.2778 | 0.6471 | 0.2353 | 0.1177 | 0.1765 | 0.0000 | 0.4706 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 14.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3500 | 0.5128 | 0.3333 | 0.0513 | 0.1026 | 0.0000 | 0.3590 |
| season | 0.60 | 124 | - | 442.000 | 119.000 | 17.000 | 2.000 | 17.000 | 65.000 | 67.000 | 41.000 | 135.000 | 0.2692 | 0.3347 | 0.4321 | 0.2692 | 0.0385 | 0.1471 | 0.0928 | 0.3054 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1460 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6100 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2737 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2040 |
| predicted_H | 0.9880 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0780 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3252 |
| predicted_R | 0.5790 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5160 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4864 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2340 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1370 | 0.1460 | 0.1409 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 | 0.0100 | 0.0134 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9600 | 3.6100 | 3.8084 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2690 | 0.2737 | 0.2710 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3310 | 0.2040 | 0.2760 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0700 | 0.9880 | 1.0345 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0780 | 0.0780 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2300 | 0.2010 | 0.2174 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3150 | 0.3252 | 0.3194 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5400 | 0.5790 | 0.5569 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6600 | 0.5160 | 0.5976 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4720 | 0.4864 | 0.4782 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0890 | 1.2340 | 1.1518 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 459 |
| Season rows before report date | 459 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 124 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 3 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 606192 |
| playerID | 606192 |
| playerName | Teoscar Hernández |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.332 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.332 |
| sl_xba | 0.256 |
| sl_xslg | 0.437 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 32.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.209 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.229 | 0.000 | -0.229 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.990 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.805 | 3.000 | 0.195 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.292 | 0.333 | -0.042 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.438 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.493 | 1.000 | -0.493 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.112 | 1.000 | -0.112 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.110 | 0.000 | -0.110 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.329 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.375 | 0.500 | -0.125 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.490 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.539 | 1.000 | 0.461 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.490 | 0.000 | -0.490 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.373 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.443 | 0.333 | -0.193 | -0.083 |
| predicted_SO | 0.745 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.752 | 0.000 | 1.248 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7450 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2550, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.4380 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4380, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AVG: 0.2340 -> 0.2414 (boost 0.0074, better) | predicted_AB: 3.9900 -> 3.9096 (deboost -0.0804, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3583 -> 0.3674 (boost 0.0091, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3210 -> 0.3154 (deboost -0.0056, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.7647 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2353, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.3992 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3992, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.024 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4632 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4632, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4639 (boost 0.4639, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7984 (deboost -0.2016, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.7984 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2016, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4639 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4639, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3674 -> 0.3790 (boost 0.0116, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3154 -> 0.3100 (deboost -0.0054, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.3100 -> 0.3154 (boost 0.0054, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3790 -> 0.3674 (deboost -0.0116, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "518692",
"player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
"position": "1B",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.209,
"predicted_3B": 0.007,
"predicted_AB": 3.99,
"predicted_AVG": 0.234,
"predicted_BB": 0.438,
"predicted_H": 0.94,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_OBP": 0.329,
"predicted_R": 0.49,
"predicted_RBI": 0.38,
"predicted_SLG": 0.373,
"predicted_SO": 0.745
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.174,
"predicted_3B": 0.0057,
"predicted_AB": 3.9096,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2414,
"predicted_BB": 0.3952,
"predicted_H": 0.9466,
"predicted_HBP": 0.02,
"predicted_HR": 0.0964,
"predicted_OBP": 0.321,
"predicted_R": 0.4507,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3682,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3583,
"predicted_SO": 0.7725
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.174,
"delta": -0.035,
"percent_delta": -0.1675,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.0057,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1857,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 3.9096,
"delta": -0.0804,
"percent_delta": -0.0202,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.234,
"after": 0.2414,
"delta": 0.0074,
"percent_delta": 0.0316,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.438,
"after": 0.3952,
"delta": -0.0428,
"percent_delta": -0.0977,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.94,
"after": 0.9466,
"delta": 0.0066,
"percent_delta": 0.007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.0964,
"delta": -0.0236,
"percent_delta": -0.1967,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.329,
"after": 0.321,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -0.0243,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.49,
"after": 0.4507,
"delta": -0.0393,
"percent_delta": -0.0802,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.3682,
"delta": -0.0118,
"percent_delta": -0.0311,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.373,
"after": 0.3583,
"delta": -0.0147,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.745,
"after": 0.7725,
"delta": 0.0275,
"percent_delta": 0.0369,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.234,
"after": 0.2414,
"delta": 0.0074,
"percent_delta": 0.0316,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 3.9096,
"delta": -0.0804,
"percent_delta": -0.0202,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 153
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.174,
"predicted_3B": 0.0057,
"predicted_AB": 3.9096,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2455,
"predicted_BB": 0.3992,
"predicted_H": 0.9599,
"predicted_HBP": 0.02,
"predicted_HR": 0.097,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3154,
"predicted_R": 0.4632,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3784,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3674,
"predicted_SO": 0.7647
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.174,
"after": 0.174,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0057,
"after": 0.0057,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9096,
"after": 3.9096,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2414,
"after": 0.2455,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.017,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3952,
"after": 0.3992,
"delta": 0.004,
"percent_delta": 0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9466,
"after": 0.9599,
"delta": 0.0133,
"percent_delta": 0.0141,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.02,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0964,
"after": 0.097,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0062,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.321,
"after": 0.3154,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0174,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4507,
"after": 0.4632,
"delta": 0.0125,
"percent_delta": 0.0277,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3682,
"after": 0.3784,
"delta": 0.0102,
"percent_delta": 0.0277,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3583,
"after": 0.3674,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0254,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7725,
"after": 0.7647,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3583,
"after": 0.3674,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0254,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.321,
"after": 0.3154,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0174,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.024",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.174,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.174,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0057,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0057,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9096,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0904,
"percent_delta": 0.0231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3992,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3992,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9599,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0401,
"percent_delta": 0.0418,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.097,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.097,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3784,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3784,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7647,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2353,
"percent_delta": 0.3077,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7647,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2353,
"percent_delta": 0.3077,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3992,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3992,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
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"delta": -0.0136,
"percent_delta": -0.0413,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.49,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.51,
"percent_delta": 1.0408,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.38,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.373,
"after": 0.3674,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.015,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.745,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.255,
"percent_delta": 1.6846,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.745,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.255,
"percent_delta": 1.6846,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.438,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.438,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.209 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.990 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.438 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.329 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.490 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.373 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.745 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | -0.035 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.910 | -0.080 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.395 | -0.043 |
| predicted_H | 0.947 | 0.007 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.096 | -0.024 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.321 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.451 | -0.039 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.368 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.358 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 0.772 | 0.027 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.910 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.399 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.960 | 0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.097 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.463 | 0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.378 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.367 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.765 | -0.008 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.024
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.172 | 0.172 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.345 | 0.345 |
| H | 0.913 | -0.087 |
| HR | 0.111 | 0.111 |
| RBI | 0.464 | 0.464 |
| SO | 0.798 | -0.202 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.172 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.345 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.087 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.111 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.464 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.202 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.090 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.399 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.040 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.097 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.463 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.378 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.379 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.235 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.1579 | 0.2000 | 0.1579 | 0.1579 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.2105 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 0.2308 | 0.2619 | 0.2308 | 0.2308 | 0.0000 | 0.1026 | 0.0513 | 0.2564 |
| season | 0.60 | 153 | - | 578.000 | 167.000 | 32.000 | 1.000 | 16.000 | 68.000 | 75.000 | 67.000 | 114.000 | 0.2889 | 0.3643 | 0.4308 | 0.2889 | 0.0277 | 0.1177 | 0.1159 | 0.1972 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1290 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8060 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2510 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3400 |
| predicted_H | 0.9550 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0200 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0660 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3107 |
| predicted_R | 0.4000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3530 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3393 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8080 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2090 | 0.1290 | 0.1740 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 | 0.0040 | 0.0057 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9900 | 3.8060 | 3.9096 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2340 | 0.2510 | 0.2414 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4380 | 0.3400 | 0.3952 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9400 | 0.9550 | 0.9466 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0200 | 0.0200 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 | 0.0660 | 0.0964 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3290 | 0.3107 | 0.3210 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4900 | 0.4000 | 0.4507 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3800 | 0.3530 | 0.3682 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3730 | 0.3393 | 0.3583 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7450 | 0.8080 | 0.7725 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 625 |
| Season rows before report date | 625 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 153 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 518692 |
| playerID | 518692 |
| playerName | Freddie Freeman |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.348 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.363 |
| sl_xba | 0.29 |
| sl_xslg | 0.463 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.127 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.157 | 0.000 | -0.157 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.990 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.594 | 4.000 | -0.594 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.252 | 0.000 | -0.252 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.451 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.496 | 0.000 | 0.504 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.080 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.906 | 0.000 | -0.906 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.122 | 0.000 | -0.122 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.357 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.346 | 0.000 | -0.096 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.493 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.535 | 0.000 | -0.535 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.520 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.528 | 0.000 | -0.528 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.504 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.398 | 0.000 | -0.398 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.634 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.673 | 0.000 | 0.327 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.4510 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5490, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.0800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2690 -> 0.2770 (boost 0.0080, better) | predicted_AB: 3.9900 -> 3.7578 (deboost -0.2322, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4919 -> 0.4662 (deboost -0.0257, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.6459 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3541, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4933 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4933, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.048 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5002 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4998, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4671 (boost 0.4671, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7022 (deboost -0.2978, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_BB: 0.4205 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5795, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3870 -> 0.4662 (boost 0.0792, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669257",
"player_name": "Will Smith",
"position": "C",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.127,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.99,
"predicted_AVG": 0.269,
"predicted_BB": 0.451,
"predicted_H": 1.08,
"predicted_HR": 0.2,
"predicted_OBP": 0.357,
"predicted_R": 0.493,
"predicted_RBI": 0.52,
"predicted_SLG": 0.504,
"predicted_SO": 0.634
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1173,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.7578,
"predicted_AVG": 0.277,
"predicted_BB": 0.4594,
"predicted_H": 1.0421,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.1912,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3648,
"predicted_R": 0.4867,
"predicted_RBI": 0.48,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4919,
"predicted_SO": 0.6525
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.127,
"after": 0.1173,
"delta": -0.0097,
"percent_delta": -0.0764,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 3.7578,
"delta": -0.2322,
"percent_delta": -0.0582,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.269,
"after": 0.277,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0297,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.451,
"after": 0.4594,
"delta": 0.0084,
"percent_delta": 0.0186,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.08,
"after": 1.0421,
"delta": -0.0379,
"percent_delta": -0.0351,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.1912,
"delta": -0.0088,
"percent_delta": -0.044,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.357,
"after": 0.3648,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.493,
"after": 0.4867,
"delta": -0.0063,
"percent_delta": -0.0128,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.52,
"after": 0.48,
"delta": -0.04,
"percent_delta": -0.0769,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.504,
"after": 0.4919,
"delta": -0.0121,
"percent_delta": -0.024,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.634,
"after": 0.6525,
"delta": 0.0185,
"percent_delta": 0.0292,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.269,
"after": 0.277,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0297,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
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"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2812,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3602,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4662,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.2812,
"delta": 0.0622,
"percent_delta": 0.2841,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.304,
"after": 0.3602,
"delta": 0.0562,
"percent_delta": 0.185,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.387,
"after": 0.4662,
"delta": 0.0792,
"percent_delta": 0.2046,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.387,
"after": 0.4662,
"delta": 0.0792,
"percent_delta": 0.2046,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.127,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.127,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.99,
"percent_delta": -0.2481,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.269,
"after": 0.2812,
"delta": 0.0122,
"percent_delta": 0.0454,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.451,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.549,
"percent_delta": 1.2173,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.357,
"after": 0.3602,
"delta": 0.0032,
"percent_delta": 0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.493,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.493,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.52,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.52,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.504,
"after": 0.4662,
"delta": -0.0378,
"percent_delta": -0.075,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.634,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.366,
"percent_delta": 0.5773,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.451,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.549,
"percent_delta": 1.2173,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.127 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.990 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.451 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.080 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.357 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.493 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.520 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.504 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.634 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.117 | -0.010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.758 | -0.232 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.459 | 0.008 |
| predicted_H | 1.042 | -0.038 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.191 | -0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.365 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.487 | -0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | -0.040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.492 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.652 | 0.018 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.117 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.758 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.281 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.464 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 1.057 | 0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.192 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.360 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.500 | 0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.493 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.466 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 0.646 | -0.007 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.048
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.166 | 0.166 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.420 | 0.420 |
| H | 0.802 | -0.198 |
| HR | 0.145 | 0.145 |
| RBI | 0.467 | 0.467 |
| SO | 0.702 | -0.298 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.580 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.198 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.467 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.298 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.117 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.242 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | -0.062 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.464 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.057 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.192 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.304 | -0.056 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.500 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.493 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.387 | -0.079 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.354 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.3529 | 0.4500 | 0.5294 | 0.3529 | 0.0588 | 0.0588 | 0.1765 | 0.2353 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 0.3429 | 0.4250 | 0.6286 | 0.3429 | 0.0857 | 0.1429 | 0.1429 | 0.1714 |
| season | 0.60 | 71 | - | 239.000 | 61.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 10.000 | 33.000 | 35.000 | 32.000 | 45.000 | 0.2552 | 0.3466 | 0.4184 | 0.2552 | 0.0418 | 0.1381 | 0.1339 | 0.1883 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1040 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4390 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2880 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4710 |
| predicted_H | 0.9900 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0260 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1790 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3754 |
| predicted_R | 0.4780 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4250 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4753 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6780 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1270 | 0.1040 | 0.1173 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9900 | 3.4390 | 3.7578 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2690 | 0.2880 | 0.2770 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4510 | 0.4710 | 0.4594 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0800 | 0.9900 | 1.0421 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0260 | 0.0260 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2000 | 0.1790 | 0.1912 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3570 | 0.3754 | 0.3648 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4930 | 0.4780 | 0.4867 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5200 | 0.4250 | 0.4800 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5040 | 0.4753 | 0.4919 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6340 | 0.6780 | 0.6525 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 254 |
| Season rows before report date | 254 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 71 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669257 |
| playerID | 669257 |
| playerName | Will Smith |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.345 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.389 |
| sl_xba | 0.279 |
| sl_xslg | 0.502 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 43.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 20.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 16.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.188 | 0.000 | 0.812 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.748 | 2.000 | 0.252 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | 0.333 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.266 | 0.000 | 0.067 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.144 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.168 | 1.000 | -0.168 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.667 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.732 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.044 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.064 | 0.000 | -0.064 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | 0.333 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.303 | 0.333 | 0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.304 | 1.000 | -0.304 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.256 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.300 | 0.000 | -0.300 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.391 | 0.667 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.405 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.667 |
| predicted_SO | 0.300 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.344 | 1.000 | 0.656 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1780 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8220, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.2560 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2560, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2670 -> 0.2574 (deboost -0.0096, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3075 -> 0.3125 (boost 0.0050, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_AB: 2.4665 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.5335, better) | predicted_SO: 0.3127 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3127, better) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.019 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2581 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2581, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 0.4336 (boost 0.4336, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6778 (deboost -0.3222, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.6778 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6778, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2612 -> 0.2260 (deboost -0.0352, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2260 -> 0.2612 (boost 0.0352, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "500743",
"player_name": "Miguel Rojas",
"position": "3B",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.178,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.267,
"predicted_BB": 0.144,
"predicted_H": 0.667,
"predicted_HR": 0.044,
"predicted_OBP": 0.307,
"predicted_R": 0.244,
"predicted_RBI": 0.256,
"predicted_SLG": 0.391,
"predicted_SO": 0.3
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.173,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 2.4665,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2574,
"predicted_BB": 0.1825,
"predicted_H": 0.6352,
"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.0469,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3075,
"predicted_R": 0.2511,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2598,
"predicted_SLG": 0.385,
"predicted_SO": 0.3159
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.178,
"after": 0.173,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0281,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.4665,
"delta": -0.0335,
"percent_delta": -0.0134,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.2574,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.036,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.144,
"after": 0.1825,
"delta": 0.0385,
"percent_delta": 0.2674,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.667,
"after": 0.6352,
"delta": -0.0318,
"percent_delta": -0.0477,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.044,
"after": 0.0469,
"delta": 0.0029,
"percent_delta": 0.0659,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.3075,
"delta": 0.0005,
"percent_delta": 0.0016,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2511,
"delta": 0.0071,
"percent_delta": 0.0291,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.256,
"after": 0.2598,
"delta": 0.0038,
"percent_delta": 0.0148,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.391,
"after": 0.385,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.0153,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.3159,
"delta": 0.0159,
"percent_delta": 0.053,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.2574,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.036,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 97
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.173,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 2.4665,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2612,
"predicted_BB": 0.1843,
"predicted_H": 0.6442,
"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.0472,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3125,
"predicted_R": 0.2581,
"predicted_RBI": 0.267,
"predicted_SLG": 0.389,
"predicted_SO": 0.3127
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.173,
"after": 0.173,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.4665,
"after": 2.4665,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2612,
"delta": 0.0038,
"percent_delta": 0.0148,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1825,
"after": 0.1843,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0099,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6352,
"after": 0.6442,
"delta": 0.009,
"percent_delta": 0.0142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.008,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0469,
"after": 0.0472,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0064,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3075,
"after": 0.3125,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0163,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2511,
"after": 0.2581,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0279,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2598,
"after": 0.267,
"delta": 0.0072,
"percent_delta": 0.0277,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.385,
"after": 0.389,
"delta": 0.004,
"percent_delta": 0.0104,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.3159,
"after": 0.3127,
"delta": -0.0032,
"percent_delta": -0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.3075,
"after": 0.3125,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0163,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.019",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.173,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.173,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.5335,
"percent_delta": 0.2163,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1843,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6442,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3558,
"percent_delta": 0.5523,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0472,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0472,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.267,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.3127,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3127,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.4665,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.5335,
"percent_delta": 0.2163,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.3127,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3127,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2581,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2581,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2581,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1587,
"predicted_3B": 0.0061,
"predicted_BB": 0.2076,
"predicted_H": 0.6778,
"predicted_HR": 0.0838,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3374,
"predicted_SO": 0.4336
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.6778,
"delta": -0.3222,
"percent_delta": -0.3222,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0061,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2076,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6778,
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"delta": -0.6778,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0838,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0838,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.4336,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"better_metrics": 1,
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.226,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.281,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.366,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2612,
"after": 0.226,
"delta": -0.0352,
"percent_delta": -0.1348,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3125,
"after": 0.281,
"delta": -0.0315,
"percent_delta": -0.1008,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.389,
"after": 0.366,
"delta": -0.023,
"percent_delta": -0.0591,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"percent_delta": -0.1348,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2612,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3125,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.389,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.226,
"after": 0.2612,
"delta": 0.0352,
"percent_delta": 0.1556,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.281,
"after": 0.3125,
"delta": 0.0315,
"percent_delta": 0.1122,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.389,
"delta": 0.023,
"percent_delta": 0.0629,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.226,
"after": 0.2612,
"delta": 0.0352,
"percent_delta": 0.1556,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.178,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.822,
"percent_delta": 4.618,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.2612,
"delta": -0.0058,
"percent_delta": -0.0217,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.144,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.144,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.333,
"percent_delta": 0.4993,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.044,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.044,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.3125,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0179,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.244,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.256,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.256,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.391,
"after": 0.389,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.7,
"percent_delta": 2.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.178,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.822,
"percent_delta": 4.618,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.256,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.256,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.144 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.044 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.256 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.391 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.300 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.173 | -0.005 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.466 | -0.034 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.257 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.182 | 0.039 |
| predicted_H | 0.635 | -0.032 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.047 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.251 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.260 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.385 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.316 | 0.016 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.173 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.466 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.261 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.184 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.644 | 0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.047 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.258 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.267 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.389 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.313 | -0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.019
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.159 | 0.159 |
| 3B | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| BB | 0.208 | 0.208 |
| H | 0.678 | -0.322 |
| HR | 0.084 | 0.084 |
| RBI | 0.337 | 0.337 |
| SO | 0.434 | 0.434 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.208 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.678 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.084 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.337 |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.434 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.173 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.534 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | -0.035 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.184 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.356 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.047 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | -0.031 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.258 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.267 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.366 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.313 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 10.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.2000 | 0.3333 | 0.3000 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 23.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.2174 | 0.3077 | 0.3913 | 0.2174 | 0.0435 | 0.1304 | 0.1304 | 0.0870 |
| season | 0.60 | 97 | - | 225.000 | 60.000 | 16.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 23.000 | 22.000 | 13.000 | 27.000 | 0.2667 | 0.3008 | 0.3911 | 0.2667 | 0.0178 | 0.1022 | 0.0578 | 0.1200 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1660 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 2.4200 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2360 |
| predicted_H | 0.5910 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0510 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3083 |
| predicted_R | 0.2610 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2650 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3767 |
| predicted_SO | 0.3380 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1780 | 0.1660 | 0.1730 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 2.4200 | 2.4665 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2670 | 0.2440 | 0.2574 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1440 | 0.2360 | 0.1825 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6670 | 0.5910 | 0.6352 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0080 | 0.0080 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0440 | 0.0510 | 0.0469 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3070 | 0.3083 | 0.3075 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2440 | 0.2610 | 0.2511 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2560 | 0.2650 | 0.2598 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3910 | 0.3767 | 0.3850 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.3000 | 0.3380 | 0.3159 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 250 |
| Season rows before report date | 250 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 97 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260927_LAD@SF |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 500743 |
| playerID | 500743 |
| playerName | Miguel Rojas |
| pos | 2B |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 10.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.306 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.309 |
| sl_xba | 0.277 |
| sl_xslg | 0.386 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 17.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.205 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.191 | 0.000 | -0.191 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.130 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.063 | 3.000 | -1.063 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.257 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.260 | 0.333 | 0.073 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.369 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.356 | 1.000 | 0.644 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.018 | 0.000 | -0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.060 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.057 | 1.000 | -0.057 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.198 | 0.000 | 0.802 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.358 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.322 | 0.500 | 0.178 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.574 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.623 | 0.000 | 0.377 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.500 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.609 | 0.000 | 0.391 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.465 | 1.333 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.453 | 0.333 | 0.880 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.467 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.489 | 1.000 | -0.489 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.1900 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8100, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.1300 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.1300, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4650 -> 0.4885 (boost 0.0235, better) | predicted_AB: 4.1300 -> 3.9746 (deboost -0.1554, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3600 -> 0.3409 (deboost -0.0191, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_RBI: 0.5192 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5192, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.048 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5832 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4168, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5335 (boost 0.5335, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8780 (deboost -0.1220, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.1940 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8060, better) | predicted_SO: 0.5129 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5129, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4190 -> 0.4799 (boost 0.0609, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "605141",
"player_name": "Mookie Betts",
"position": "SS",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.205,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.13,
"predicted_AVG": 0.257,
"predicted_BB": 0.369,
"predicted_H": 1.06,
"predicted_HR": 0.19,
"predicted_OBP": 0.358,
"predicted_R": 0.574,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5,
"predicted_SLG": 0.465,
"predicted_SO": 0.467
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2289,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.9746,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2682,
"predicted_BB": 0.4159,
"predicted_H": 1.063,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.1987,
"predicted_OBP": 0.36,
"predicted_R": 0.5675,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5052,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4885,
"predicted_SO": 0.5096
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.205,
"after": 0.2289,
"delta": 0.0239,
"percent_delta": 0.1166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.13,
"after": 3.9746,
"delta": -0.1554,
"percent_delta": -0.0376,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.257,
"after": 0.2682,
"delta": 0.0112,
"percent_delta": 0.0436,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.4159,
"delta": 0.0469,
"percent_delta": 0.1271,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.06,
"after": 1.063,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0028,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.1987,
"delta": 0.0087,
"percent_delta": 0.0458,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.36,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": 0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.574,
"after": 0.5675,
"delta": -0.0065,
"percent_delta": -0.0113,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.5052,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0104,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4885,
"delta": 0.0235,
"percent_delta": 0.0505,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.467,
"after": 0.5096,
"delta": 0.0426,
"percent_delta": 0.0912,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4885,
"delta": 0.0235,
"percent_delta": 0.0505,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.13,
"after": 3.9746,
"delta": -0.1554,
"percent_delta": -0.0376,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 122
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2289,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.9746,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2712,
"predicted_BB": 0.4201,
"predicted_H": 1.078,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.1999,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3409,
"predicted_R": 0.5832,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5192,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4799,
"predicted_SO": 0.5045
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2289,
"after": 0.2289,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9746,
"after": 3.9746,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2682,
"after": 0.2712,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0112,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2712,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3409,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4799,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.226,
"after": 0.2712,
"delta": 0.0452,
"percent_delta": 0.2001,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.297,
"after": 0.3409,
"delta": 0.0439,
"percent_delta": 0.1478,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.419,
"after": 0.4799,
"delta": 0.0609,
"percent_delta": 0.1453,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.419,
"after": 0.4799,
"delta": 0.0609,
"percent_delta": 0.1453,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.205,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.205,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.13,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.13,
"percent_delta": -0.2736,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.257,
"after": 0.2712,
"delta": 0.0142,
"percent_delta": 0.0553,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.631,
"percent_delta": 1.71,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.06,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.06,
"percent_delta": -0.0566,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.81,
"percent_delta": 4.2632,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.3409,
"delta": -0.0171,
"percent_delta": -0.0478,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.574,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.426,
"percent_delta": 0.7422,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4799,
"delta": 0.0149,
"percent_delta": 0.032,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.467,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.467,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.81,
"percent_delta": 4.2632,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.13,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.13,
"percent_delta": -0.2736,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.205 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.130 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.257 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.369 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.060 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.358 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.574 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.465 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.467 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.229 | 0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.975 | -0.155 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.268 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.416 | 0.047 |
| predicted_H | 1.063 | 0.003 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.199 | 0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.360 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.568 | -0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.505 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.488 | 0.023 |
| predicted_SO | 0.510 | 0.043 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.229 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.975 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.271 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.420 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 1.078 | 0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.341 | -0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.583 | 0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.519 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.480 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.504 | -0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.048
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.194 | 0.194 |
| 3B | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| BB | 0.358 | 0.358 |
| H | 0.878 | -0.122 |
| HR | 0.181 | 0.181 |
| RBI | 0.533 | 0.533 |
| SO | 0.513 | 0.513 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.806 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.358 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.122 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.181 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.467 |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.513 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.229 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.025 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | -0.045 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.420 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.078 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.200 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.297 | -0.044 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.417 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.519 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | -0.061 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.504 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.2941 | 0.4000 | 0.5294 | 0.2941 | 0.0588 | 0.0588 | 0.1765 | 0.2353 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 13.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 5.000 | 0.3514 | 0.4545 | 0.7297 | 0.3513 | 0.0811 | 0.1892 | 0.1892 | 0.1351 |
| season | 0.60 | 122 | - | 478.000 | 124.000 | 25.000 | 0.000 | 23.000 | 69.000 | 70.000 | 45.000 | 57.000 | 0.2594 | 0.3251 | 0.4561 | 0.2594 | 0.0481 | 0.1444 | 0.0941 | 0.1192 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2600 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7720 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2828 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4770 |
| predicted_H | 1.0670 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2100 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3627 |
| predicted_R | 0.5590 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5120 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5191 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5650 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2050 | 0.2600 | 0.2289 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.1300 | 3.7720 | 3.9746 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2570 | 0.2828 | 0.2682 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3690 | 0.4770 | 0.4159 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0600 | 1.0670 | 1.0630 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0110 | 0.0110 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1900 | 0.2100 | 0.1987 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3580 | 0.3627 | 0.3600 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5740 | 0.5590 | 0.5675 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5000 | 0.5120 | 0.5052 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4650 | 0.5191 | 0.4885 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4670 | 0.5650 | 0.5096 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 491 |
| Season rows before report date | 491 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 122 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 605141 |
| playerID | 605141 |
| playerName | Mookie Betts |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 11.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.338 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.339 |
| sl_xba | 0.278 |
| sl_xslg | 0.435 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 40.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 12.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.152 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.169 | 0.000 | -0.169 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.030 | 0.000 | -0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.810 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.694 | 4.000 | -0.694 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.239 | 0.500 | 0.094 | -0.167 |
| predicted_BB | 0.483 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.523 | 0.000 | -0.523 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.900 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.885 | 2.000 | 0.115 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.122 | 1.000 | -0.122 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.333 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.333 | 0.500 | 0.000 | -0.167 |
| predicted_R | 0.596 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.633 | 1.000 | 0.367 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.516 | 2.000 | -0.516 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.426 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.400 | 1.250 | -0.067 | -0.917 |
| predicted_SO | 0.702 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.725 | 2.000 | 1.275 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7020 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2980, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.8100 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.8100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 3.8100 -> 3.7397 (deboost -0.0703, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3120 -> 0.3217 (boost 0.0097, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.7035 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2965, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4477 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4477, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.044 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6121 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3879, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4789 (boost 0.4789, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7472 (deboost -0.2528, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.3696 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6304, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4789 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4789, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3610 -> 0.4212 (boost 0.0602, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663656",
"player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
"position": "RF",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.152,
"predicted_3B": 0.026,
"predicted_AB": 3.81,
"predicted_AVG": 0.236,
"predicted_BB": 0.483,
"predicted_H": 0.9,
"predicted_HR": 0.18,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.596,
"predicted_RBI": 0.44,
"predicted_SLG": 0.426,
"predicted_SO": 0.702
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.128,
"predicted_3B": 0.0216,
"predicted_AB": 3.7397,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2373,
"predicted_BB": 0.442,
"predicted_H": 0.8878,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.1669,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.5956,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4356,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4137,
"predicted_SO": 0.7107
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.152,
"after": 0.128,
"delta": -0.024,
"percent_delta": -0.1579,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0216,
"delta": -0.0044,
"percent_delta": -0.1692,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.81,
"after": 3.7397,
"delta": -0.0703,
"percent_delta": -0.0185,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.236,
"after": 0.2373,
"delta": 0.0013,
"percent_delta": 0.0055,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.483,
"after": 0.442,
"delta": -0.041,
"percent_delta": -0.0849,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9,
"after": 0.8878,
"delta": -0.0122,
"percent_delta": -0.0136,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.1669,
"delta": -0.0131,
"percent_delta": -0.0728,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.312,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.596,
"after": 0.5956,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 0.4356,
"delta": -0.0044,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.426,
"after": 0.4137,
"delta": -0.0123,
"percent_delta": -0.0289,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.702,
"after": 0.7107,
"delta": 0.0087,
"percent_delta": 0.0124,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 3.81,
"after": 3.7397,
"delta": -0.0703,
"percent_delta": -0.0185,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 151
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.128,
"predicted_3B": 0.0216,
"predicted_AB": 3.7397,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2407,
"predicted_BB": 0.4465,
"predicted_H": 0.9003,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.1679,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3217,
"predicted_R": 0.6121,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4477,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4212,
"predicted_SO": 0.7035
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.128,
"after": 0.128,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"delta": 0.0045,
"percent_delta": 0.0102,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8878,
"after": 0.9003,
"delta": 0.0125,
"percent_delta": 0.0141,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.1679,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3217,
"delta": 0.0097,
"percent_delta": 0.0311,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5956,
"after": 0.6121,
"delta": 0.0165,
"percent_delta": 0.0277,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4356,
"after": 0.4477,
"delta": 0.0121,
"percent_delta": 0.0278,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4137,
"after": 0.4212,
"delta": 0.0075,
"percent_delta": 0.0181,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 0.7035,
"delta": -0.0072,
"percent_delta": -0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
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},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
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"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.4465,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0997,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
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{
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"delta": -0.013,
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1679,
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"delta": -0.1679,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": -0.4477,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.2965,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"material": true
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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},
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0129,
"predicted_BB": 0.3696,
"predicted_H": 0.7709,
"predicted_HR": 0.1187,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4789,
"predicted_SO": 0.7472
},
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{
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.3696,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": -0.2291,
"percent_delta": -0.2291,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.1187,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2407,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3217,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4212,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0602,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.596,
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"delta": 0.404,
"percent_delta": 0.6779,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.44,
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"delta": -0.44,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.426,
"after": 0.4212,
"delta": -0.0048,
"percent_delta": -0.0113,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.702,
"after": 2.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.152 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.810 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.483 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.900 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.596 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.426 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.702 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.128 | -0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.740 | -0.070 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.237 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.442 | -0.041 |
| predicted_H | 0.888 | -0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.167 | -0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.596 | -0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.436 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.414 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.711 | 0.009 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.128 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.740 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.447 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.900 | 0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.168 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.612 | 0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.448 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.421 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.704 | -0.007 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.044
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.147 | 0.147 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.370 | 0.370 |
| H | 0.771 | -0.229 |
| HR | 0.119 | 0.119 |
| RBI | 0.479 | 0.479 |
| SO | 0.747 | -0.253 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.630 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.229 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.479 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.253 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.128 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.260 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.214 | -0.027 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.447 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.100 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.168 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.293 | -0.029 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.388 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.448 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.361 | -0.060 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.296 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2381 | 0.3500 | 0.2000 | 0.0500 | 0.1000 | 0.0500 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.2857 | 0.3421 | 0.4571 | 0.2857 | 0.0571 | 0.0857 | 0.0857 | 0.1429 |
| season | 0.60 | 151 | - | 539.000 | 127.000 | 23.000 | 4.000 | 18.000 | 72.000 | 90.000 | 73.000 | 106.000 | 0.2356 | 0.3269 | 0.3933 | 0.2356 | 0.0334 | 0.1336 | 0.1354 | 0.1967 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0970 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6490 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2389 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3890 |
| predicted_H | 0.8720 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0130 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1500 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3119 |
| predicted_R | 0.5950 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4300 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3979 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7220 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1520 | 0.0970 | 0.1280 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0260 | 0.0160 | 0.0216 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8100 | 3.6490 | 3.7397 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2360 | 0.2389 | 0.2373 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4830 | 0.3890 | 0.4420 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9000 | 0.8720 | 0.8878 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0130 | 0.0130 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1800 | 0.1500 | 0.1669 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3119 | 0.3120 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5960 | 0.5950 | 0.5956 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4400 | 0.4300 | 0.4356 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4260 | 0.3979 | 0.4137 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7020 | 0.7220 | 0.7107 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 599 |
| Season rows before report date | 599 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 151 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663656 |
| playerID | 663656 |
| playerName | Kyle Tucker |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.318 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.331 |
| sl_xba | 0.256 |
| sl_xslg | 0.393 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.199 | 0.000 | -0.199 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.018 | 0.000 | -0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.550 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.959 | 4.000 | -0.959 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.275 | 0.000 | -0.275 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.368 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.380 | 0.000 | -0.380 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.054 | 0.000 | -0.054 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.010 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.090 | 0.000 | -1.090 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.174 | 0.000 | -0.174 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.329 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.342 | 0.000 | -0.342 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.564 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.625 | 0.000 | -0.625 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.750 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.654 | 0.000 | -0.654 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.449 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.466 | 0.000 | -0.466 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.857 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.842 | 3.000 | -0.842 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AVG: 0.2230 -> 0.2356 (boost 0.0126, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.5500 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.5500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.8570 -> 0.9511 (boost 0.0941, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.5500 -> 4.1429 (deboost -0.4071, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3307 -> 0.3022 (deboost -0.0285, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_RBI: 0.7394 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2606, better) | predicted_AB: 4.1429 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.1429, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=4.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.048 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5488 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4512, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3184 (boost 0.3184, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5182 (deboost -0.4818, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5182 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4818, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3184 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3184, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4392 -> 0.4160 (deboost -0.0232, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4160 -> 0.4392 (boost 0.0232, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "681624",
"player_name": "Andy Pages",
"position": "CF",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.188,
"predicted_3B": 0.015,
"predicted_AB": 4.55,
"predicted_AVG": 0.223,
"predicted_BB": 0.368,
"predicted_H": 1.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.21,
"predicted_OBP": 0.329,
"predicted_R": 0.564,
"predicted_RBI": 0.75,
"predicted_SLG": 0.449,
"predicted_SO": 0.857
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1627,
"predicted_3B": 0.0124,
"predicted_AB": 4.1429,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2344,
"predicted_BB": 0.3915,
"predicted_H": 0.9625,
"predicted_HBP": 0.071,
"predicted_HR": 0.2174,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3307,
"predicted_R": 0.534,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7195,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4616,
"predicted_SO": 0.9511
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.188,
"after": 0.1627,
"delta": -0.0253,
"percent_delta": -0.1346,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.015,
"after": 0.0124,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.1733,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.55,
"after": 4.1429,
"delta": -0.4071,
"percent_delta": -0.0895,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.2344,
"delta": 0.0114,
"percent_delta": 0.0511,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.368,
"after": 0.3915,
"delta": 0.0235,
"percent_delta": 0.0639,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.01,
"after": 0.9625,
"delta": -0.0475,
"percent_delta": -0.047,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.2174,
"delta": 0.0074,
"percent_delta": 0.0352,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.329,
"after": 0.3307,
"delta": 0.0017,
"percent_delta": 0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.564,
"after": 0.534,
"delta": -0.03,
"percent_delta": -0.0532,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.7195,
"delta": -0.0305,
"percent_delta": -0.0407,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.449,
"after": 0.4616,
"delta": 0.0126,
"percent_delta": 0.0281,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.857,
"after": 0.9511,
"delta": 0.0941,
"percent_delta": 0.1098,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.857,
"after": 0.9511,
"delta": 0.0941,
"percent_delta": 0.1098,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.55,
"after": 4.1429,
"delta": -0.4071,
"percent_delta": -0.0895,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 133
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1627,
"predicted_3B": 0.0124,
"predicted_AB": 4.1429,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2356,
"predicted_BB": 0.3955,
"predicted_H": 0.9761,
"predicted_HBP": 0.071,
"predicted_HR": 0.2187,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3022,
"predicted_R": 0.5488,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7394,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4392,
"predicted_SO": 0.9415
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1627,
"after": 0.1627,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0124,
"after": 0.0124,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1429,
"after": 4.1429,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2344,
"after": 0.2356,
"delta": 0.0012,
"percent_delta": 0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3915,
"after": 0.3955,
"delta": 0.004,
"percent_delta": 0.0102,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9625,
"after": 0.9761,
"delta": 0.0136,
"percent_delta": 0.0141,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.071,
"after": 0.071,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2174,
"after": 0.2187,
"delta": 0.0013,
"percent_delta": 0.006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3307,
"after": 0.3022,
"delta": -0.0285,
"percent_delta": -0.0862,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.534,
"after": 0.5488,
"delta": 0.0148,
"percent_delta": 0.0277,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7195,
"after": 0.7394,
"delta": 0.0199,
"percent_delta": 0.0277,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4616,
"after": 0.4392,
"delta": -0.0224,
"percent_delta": -0.0485,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9511,
"after": 0.9415,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.2356,
"delta": 0.0056,
"percent_delta": 0.0244,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.3022,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.416,
"after": 0.4392,
"delta": 0.0232,
"percent_delta": 0.0558,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.416,
"after": 0.4392,
"delta": 0.0232,
"percent_delta": 0.0558,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.188,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.188,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.015,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.55,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.55,
"percent_delta": -0.3407,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.2356,
"delta": 0.0126,
"percent_delta": 0.0565,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.368,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.368,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.01,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.01,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.21,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.329,
"after": 0.3022,
"delta": -0.0268,
"percent_delta": -0.0815,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.564,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.564,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.75,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.449,
"after": 0.4392,
"delta": -0.0098,
"percent_delta": -0.0218,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.857,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.857,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.2356,
"delta": 0.0126,
"percent_delta": 0.0565,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.55,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.55,
"percent_delta": -0.3407,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.550 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.368 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.010 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.329 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.564 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.750 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.449 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.857 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.163 | -0.025 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.143 | -0.407 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.392 | 0.024 |
| predicted_H | 0.963 | -0.047 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.071 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.217 | 0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.331 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.534 | -0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.720 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.462 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.951 | 0.094 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.163 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.143 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.396 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.976 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.071 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.219 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.302 | -0.028 |
| predicted_R | 0.549 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.739 | 0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.439 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SO | 0.942 | -0.010 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=4.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.048
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.168 | 0.168 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.318 | 0.318 |
| H | 0.795 | -0.205 |
| HR | 0.152 | 0.152 |
| RBI | 0.518 | -0.482 |
| SO | 0.772 | -0.228 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.168 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.205 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.152 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.482 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.228 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.163 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -1.143 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.396 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.024 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.219 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.300 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.451 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.261 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.416 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.058 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 0.1875 | 0.3000 | 0.5625 | 0.1875 | 0.1250 | 0.3125 | 0.1875 | 0.5000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 11.000 | 0.2424 | 0.3500 | 0.4545 | 0.2424 | 0.0606 | 0.1515 | 0.1212 | 0.3333 |
| season | 0.60 | 133 | - | 511.000 | 139.000 | 25.000 | 2.000 | 23.000 | 84.000 | 75.000 | 49.000 | 114.000 | 0.2720 | 0.3403 | 0.4638 | 0.2720 | 0.0450 | 0.1644 | 0.0959 | 0.2231 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1300 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6150 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2491 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4220 |
| predicted_H | 0.9010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0710 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2270 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3328 |
| predicted_R | 0.4950 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6800 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4780 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0730 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1880 | 0.1300 | 0.1627 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 | 0.0090 | 0.0124 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.5500 | 3.6150 | 4.1429 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2230 | 0.2491 | 0.2344 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3680 | 0.4220 | 0.3915 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0100 | 0.9010 | 0.9625 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0710 | 0.0710 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2100 | 0.2270 | 0.2174 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3290 | 0.3328 | 0.3307 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5640 | 0.4950 | 0.5340 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7500 | 0.6800 | 0.7195 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4490 | 0.4780 | 0.4616 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8570 | 1.0730 | 0.9511 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 558 |
| Season rows before report date | 558 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 133 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 3 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681624 |
| playerID | 681624 |
| playerName | Andy Pages |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.352 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.343 |
| sl_xba | 0.274 |
| sl_xslg | 0.442 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.148 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 | -0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.029 | 0.000 | -0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.568 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.718 | 2.000 | -0.718 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.253 | 0.000 | -0.253 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.272 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.289 | 1.000 | -0.289 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.036 | 0.000 | -0.036 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.730 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.942 | 0.000 | -0.942 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.101 | 0.000 | -0.101 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.338 | 0.333 | -0.338 | -0.333 |
| predicted_R | 0.506 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.568 | 0.000 | -0.568 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.460 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.523 | 0.000 | -0.523 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.091 | 0.000 | -0.091 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.365 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.393 | 0.000 | -0.393 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.827 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.857 | 1.000 | -0.857 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8270 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8270, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3650 -> 0.3707 (boost 0.0057, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3152 -> 0.2807 (deboost -0.0345, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_H: 0.7826 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2174, better) | predicted_AB: 3.5267 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.5267, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.030 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4851 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4851, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4314 (boost 0.4314, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7190 (deboost -0.2810, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.7684 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2316, worse) | predicted_H: 0.7190 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7190, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669242",
"player_name": "Tommy Edman",
"position": "2B",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_BB": 0.272,
"predicted_H": 0.73,
"predicted_HR": 0.11,
"predicted_OBP": 0.316,
"predicted_R": 0.506,
"predicted_RBI": 0.46,
"predicted_SLG": 0.365,
"predicted_SO": 0.827
},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_HR": 0.1062,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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{
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{
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"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
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{
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{
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{
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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],
"total_change": {
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},
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},
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},
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],
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},
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}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.148 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.568 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.272 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.730 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.506 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.460 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.365 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.827 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | 0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.527 | -0.041 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.285 | 0.013 |
| predicted_H | 0.772 | 0.042 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.108 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.106 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.472 | -0.034 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.483 | 0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.371 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.824 | -0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.527 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.222 | -0.018 |
| predicted_BB | 0.288 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.783 | 0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.108 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.107 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | -0.034 |
| predicted_R | 0.485 | 0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.497 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.367 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.816 | -0.008 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.030
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.153 | 0.153 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.260 | 0.260 |
| H | 0.719 | -0.281 |
| HR | 0.107 | 0.107 |
| RBI | 0.431 | 0.431 |
| SO | 0.768 | -0.232 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.153 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.260 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.719 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.107 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.431 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.232 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.527 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.217 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.288 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.217 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.107 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.280 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.485 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.497 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.366 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.184 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3158 | 0.3125 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 0.2121 | 0.2895 | 0.4242 | 0.2121 | 0.0606 | 0.2121 | 0.0909 | 0.2424 |
| season | 0.60 | 81 | - | 289.000 | 70.000 | 12.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 40.000 | 41.000 | 22.000 | 67.000 | 0.2422 | 0.3231 | 0.3806 | 0.2422 | 0.0277 | 0.1384 | 0.0761 | 0.2318 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1520 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4710 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2386 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3030 |
| predicted_H | 0.8280 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3141 |
| predicted_R | 0.4260 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5150 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3784 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8210 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1480 | 0.1520 | 0.1497 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0250 | 0.0140 | 0.0203 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5680 | 3.4710 | 3.5267 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2410 | 0.2386 | 0.2400 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2720 | 0.3030 | 0.2852 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7300 | 0.8280 | 0.7717 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1080 | 0.1080 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1100 | 0.1010 | 0.1062 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3160 | 0.3141 | 0.3152 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5060 | 0.4260 | 0.4720 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4600 | 0.5150 | 0.4834 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3650 | 0.3784 | 0.3707 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8270 | 0.8210 | 0.8244 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 308 |
| Season rows before report date | 308 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 81 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669242 |
| playerID | 669242 |
| playerName | Tommy Edman |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.32 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.303 |
| sl_xba | 0.24 |
| sl_xslg | 0.347 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.778 | 0.000 | 1.222 | 3.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 3.444 | 5.000 | -1.444 | -3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.100 | 5.100 | 5.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.689 | 4.000 | 0.411 | 1.100 |
| predicted_SO | 9.000 | 9.000 | 9.000 | Pitching_SO | 6.111 | 3.000 | 2.889 | 6.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.1000 (deboost -0.5667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | starter_usage_guardrail | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.1000 (deboost -0.5667, worse) | Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context. |
| 3 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 4 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "605483",
"player_name": "Blake Snell",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.6667,
"predicted_SO": 9.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
"description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.1,
"predicted_SO": 9.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.5667,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 9.0,
"after": 9.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.5667,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.1,
"predicted_SO": 9.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.1,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 9.0,
"after": 9.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.1,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 9.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.1,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 9.0,
"after": 9.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.5667,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 9.0,
"after": 9.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.5667,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 9.000 | - |
Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.100 | -0.567 |
| predicted_SO | 9.000 | 0.000 |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 9.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 21.200 | 3.000 | 18.000 | 7.000 | 29.000 | 0.000 | 1.2462 | 1.1538 | 0.1385 | 0.8308 | 0.3231 | 1.3385 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 9 | 42.200 | 9.000 | 31.000 | 16.000 | 55.000 | 0.000 | 1.8984 | 1.1016 | 0.2109 | 0.7266 | 0.3750 | 1.2891 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 9 | 42.200 | 9.000 | 31.000 | 16.000 | 55.000 | 0.000 | 1.8984 | 1.1016 | 0.2109 | 0.7266 | 0.3750 | 1.2891 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.7420 |
| predicted_ER | 1.4180 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.6084 |
| predicted_H | 4.2060 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2580 |
| predicted_IP | 5.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 5.7790 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2159 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.0000 | 1.7420 | 2.3721 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 1.4180 | 1.2086 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.6084 | 2.6084 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 4.2060 | 3.1011 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.2580 | 0.1288 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 | 5.0000 | 5.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 9.0000 | 5.7790 | 7.3923 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2159 | 1.2159 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 9 |
| Season rows before report date | 9 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 9 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.1 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 3 |
| SO | 9 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 21 |
| Pitches | 97 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 16 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.90 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 5 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 5 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 77 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 3 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 50 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260926_LAD@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 605483 |
| playerID | 605483 |
| playerName | Blake Snell |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.245 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.228 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 15.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 34.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 71.9158414 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 91.0630215 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.524 | 0.000 | -0.524 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.857 | 0.000 | 0.143 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 1.238 | 0.000 | 0.762 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.833 | 1.000 | 0.167 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.333 | 1.000 | -0.333 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "621242",
"player_name": "Edwin Díaz",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.4000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 1.8000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.200 | 7.000 | 11.000 | 4.000 | 14.000 | 0.000 | 6.5172 | 1.5517 | 0.7241 | 1.1379 | 0.4138 | 1.4483 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 20 | 18.200 | 15.000 | 23.000 | 10.000 | 28.000 | 3.000 | 7.2321 | 1.7679 | 0.8036 | 1.2321 | 0.5357 | 1.5000 | 0.1607 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3630 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4700 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.2264 |
| predicted_H | 0.8760 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0970 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2300 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2388 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3630 | 0.1493 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.4700 | 0.7820 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.2264 | 4.2264 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 0.8760 | 1.5377 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0970 | 0.0399 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.2300 | 1.0946 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2388 | 1.2388 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 21 |
| Season rows before report date | 21 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 20 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 19 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 8.68 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 11 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 8 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260927_LAD@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 621242 |
| playerID | 621242 |
| playerName | Edwin Díaz |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.4 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.328 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 42.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 46.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.8 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 80.254157778 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.774877547 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.219 | 1.000 | -0.219 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.312 | 0.000 | 0.688 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 0.688 | 0.000 | 1.312 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.706 | 0.100 | 0.394 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.031 | 0.000 | -0.031 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "623465",
"player_name": "Evan Phillips",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 2.0769 | 0.4615 | 0.2308 | 0.2308 | 0.2308 | 1.6154 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.200 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 2.0769 | 0.6923 | 0.2308 | 0.4615 | 0.2308 | 1.3846 | 0.1154 |
| season | 0.20 | 32 | 26.100 | 10.000 | 22.000 | 7.000 | 33.000 | 5.000 | 3.4177 | 1.1013 | 0.3797 | 0.8354 | 0.2658 | 1.2532 | 0.1899 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2950 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3680 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.4311 |
| predicted_H | 0.6730 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1080 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1670 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0027 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2950 | 0.1320 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.3680 | 0.7172 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.4311 | 3.4311 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 0.6730 | 1.4062 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1080 | 0.0483 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.1670 | 1.0747 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0027 | 1.0027 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 32 |
| Season rows before report date | 32 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 32 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 6 |
| Pitches | 26 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 2 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 12 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 8 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 623465 |
| playerID | 623465 |
| playerName | Evan Phillips |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.292 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.321 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 16.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 80.133585455 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 95.348925152 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.214 | 0.000 | -0.214 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.300 | 2.000 | -0.300 | -2.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.714 | 2.000 | -0.714 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.836 | 0.200 | 0.264 | 0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.171 | 0.000 | 0.829 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656945",
"player_name": "Tanner Scott",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.200 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 3.8571 | 0.8571 | 0.4286 | 0.6429 | 0.2143 | 1.2857 | 0.2143 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.100 | 5.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 15.000 | 1.000 | 5.4000 | 1.4400 | 0.6000 | 1.0800 | 0.3600 | 1.8000 | 0.1200 |
| season | 0.20 | 70 | 64.100 | 21.000 | 50.000 | 15.000 | 82.000 | 5.000 | 2.9378 | 1.0104 | 0.3264 | 0.7772 | 0.2332 | 1.2746 | 0.0777 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2740 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4400 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.3220 |
| predicted_H | 0.7930 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1390 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2070 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1662 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2740 | 0.1464 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.4400 | 0.2351 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.3220 | 4.3220 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.7930 | 0.4237 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1390 | 0.0743 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 1.2070 | 1.5763 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1662 | 1.1662 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 70 |
| Season rows before report date | 70 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 70 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 17 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 27.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 12 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 9 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261003_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656945 |
| playerID | 656945 |
| playerName | Tanner Scott |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.25 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.27 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.9267356 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.6064356 |
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | SD 4 - 5 MIL | MIL | 0.554 | enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target | True |
| Simulation draw | SD 4 - 5 MIL | MIL | - | organic_simulation_realized_target | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.5782; empirical=0.5789; weight=0.5000; final=0.5785 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=-7; abs=7; home delta=-0.0404; away delta=0.0404 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=2.2500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=1.1790; recent edge=-0.1240; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 6.5000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5538 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_simulation_realized_target |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 3.806 | 5.010 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 4 | 5 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.5538 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, season_quality_guardrail) |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 5 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 4 | 5 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 4 | 5 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.6757920000000002,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.42621015348288077,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5062101534828808,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.2495818465171194,
"confidence": 0.8927920000000001,
"factors": {
"environmental": 1.05,
"pitcher_form": 1.4520000000000002,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.04,
"combined": 1.5855840000000003
},
"prediction": "low_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 9,
"score_scale_mode": "control",
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 6.5,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 6.5,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 9,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
}{
"method": "monotone_reliability_shrinkage",
"policy": "shrink_toward_even_score_floor_v3",
"sample_size": 437,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 437,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 925,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 1112,
"global_sample_size": 1129,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5789,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5758,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5995,
"raw_pick_probability_unclamped": 0.5995,
"score_probability_conflict": false,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.5529,
"margin_implied_pick_probability": 0.5529,
"score_blend_weight": 0.45,
"blended_raw_pick_probability": 0.5785,
"score_implied_floor_pick_probability": 0.5515,
"max_published_pick_probability": 0.9,
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.599522,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.400478,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5765,
"predicted_side": "home",
"reliability": 0.96044,
"shrink_floor": 0.35,
"empirical_penalty": 1.0,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.974286
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.578158,
"sample_size": 437,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5789,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.578529,
"published_confidence": 0.553789,
"published_after_governors": true,
"governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": -7.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
"home_average_margin": -1.4,
"home_run_delta": -0.0404,
"away_run_delta": 0.0404,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -9.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 6.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -2.0
}
],
"adaptive_parameters": {
"h2h.history_limit": 5,
"h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
"h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
"h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
}
}{
"applied": true,
"home": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358024691358025,
"runs_scored": 832,
"runs_allowed": 618,
"run_differential": 214,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.3209876543209877,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617283950617284,
"runs_scored": 722,
"runs_allowed": 681,
"run_differential": 41,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.25308641975308643,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.0679,
"win_pct_edge": 0.0741,
"quality_edge": 0.723,
"season_quality_edge": 1.179,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": 1.179,
"recent_quality_edge": -0.124,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "conflict",
"blended_quality_edge": 0.723
},
"margin_adjustment": 0.3037,
"reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
"margin_adjustment_policy": {
"adjustment": 0.3037,
"cap": 1.4,
"scale": 0.42,
"quality_edge": 0.723,
"season_quality_edge": 1.179,
"recent_alignment": "conflict",
"large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
"method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 3.761,
"home_runs": 4.108,
"home_win_probability": 0.5295
}
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.01951804457688806
},
{
"home_runs": 5,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.0194654955380338
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.01896005841534769
},
{
"home_runs": 5,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.018909011660001772
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.017843640828593545
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.0495064378502637,
"1": 0.07346909897918259,
"2": 0.09871752985077217,
"3": 0.12009650712701961,
"4": 0.1322857318567977,
"5": 0.1319295748639277,
"6": 0.11912909770342466,
"7": 0.09739576490685303,
"8": 0.07209561052174608,
"9": 0.04831968627849282,
"10": 0.029321482112307024,
"11": 0.016109952597631975,
"12": 0.008013996291812242,
"13": 0.003609529059768694
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.06445252855479482,
"1": 0.0947294456992689,
"2": 0.12364614055302993,
"3": 0.14332655645638626,
"4": 0.14754459383432814,
"5": 0.13488711577685256,
"6": 0.10951362847898655,
"7": 0.07896168391257363,
"8": 0.05056094320504607,
"9": 0.028751762044095786,
"10": 0.014519922444994893,
"11": 0.006512004030580646,
"12": 0.002593675009061732
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 2.25,
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}{
"applied": false,
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{
"date": "2026-08-12",
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},
{
"date": "2026-08-11",
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{
"date": "2026-08-10",
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],
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"available": true,
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"verified_outcome_count": 4,
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{
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{
"date": "20260812",
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},
{
"date": "20260811",
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{
"date": "20260810",
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]
},
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},
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},
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},
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"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
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},
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}
}{
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},
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},
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}
}{
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}{
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"margin": 1,
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}
}{
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},
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"available": true,
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"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
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},
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},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
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"applied": true,
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"xba",
"xslg",
"barrel_batted_rate",
"hard_hit_percent",
"bat_speed",
"launch_quality",
"walk_rate",
"strikeout_rate"
],
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"barrel_allowed",
"hard_hit_allowed",
"whiff_rate",
"command_score",
"movement_score",
"faced_est_woba",
"faced_strikeout_rate"
]
},
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{
"player_id": "665487",
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{
"player_id": "701538",
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{
"player_id": "630105",
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},
{
"player_id": "592518",
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{
"player_id": "664034",
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]
},
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},
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{
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},
{
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{
"player_id": "694192",
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},
{
"player_id": "666152",
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},
{
"player_id": "686217",
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}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "650633",
"player_name": "Michael King",
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}
},
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"applied": false,
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},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
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},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": 0.723,
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},
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"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
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"policy": "starter_quality_shrinkage_v3",
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{
"reason": "projected_margin_is_one_run",
"factor": 0.85
},
{
"reason": "season_quality_guardrail",
"factor": 0.85
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]
},
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"policy": "published_probability_follows_published_score_v1",
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"note": "The probability and the projected score agree on the winner."
},
"confidence_note": "Probability shrunk toward even by starter-quality and guardrail discounts; no per-game clamp is applied. Discounts: projected_margin_is_one_run x0.85, season_quality_guardrail x0.85.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 5 MIL",
"confidence": 0.5537894025,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "SD 4 - 5 MIL",
"winner": "MIL"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "SD 4 - 5 MIL",
"winner": "MIL"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0331,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.334,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner": "MIL",
"model_winner": "MIL",
"simulation_winner": "MIL",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 6,
"published_winner": "MIL",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
"draw_majority_team": null,
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.723,
"winner": "MIL",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "MIL",
"display_confidence": 0.5538,
"internal_signal_score": 0.5505,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.5538,
"confidence_compression_detected": false,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
"totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.723,
"winner_recent_form_edge": -0.124,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0331,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8333,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 2,
"median": 4,
"max": 8,
"range": 6
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away SD | True | 1.0286 | 1.0286 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home MIL | True | 1.0334 | 1.0334 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1B | Ty France | - | 1.0355 | 0.4740 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3270 | 0.2480 | 0.4210 | 9.10 | 47.40 | 91.50 | 14.60 | 28.10 | 21.60 | 7.40 | -1.3143 |
| LF | Dustin Harris | - | 0.9964 | -0.0484 | neutral | 0.3140 | 0.2780 | 0.3600 | 1.70 | 19.50 | 85.20 | 15.60 | 19.30 | 13.20 | 7.20 | -0.3429 |
| 3B | Manny Machado | - | 1.0494 | 0.6585 | neutral | 0.3280 | 0.2430 | 0.4200 | 9.70 | 43.60 | 90.10 | 14.50 | 25.30 | 21.30 | 11.20 | 0.5143 |
| DH | Ethan Salas | - | 0.9573 | -0.5694 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2270 | 0.1880 | 0.3160 | 3.30 | 33.30 | 90.10 | 25.70 | 19.40 | 22.50 | 2.50 | -2 |
| RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | - | 1.1212 | 1.6157 | neutral | 0.3790 | 0.2960 | 0.5000 | 12.70 | 53.90 | 92.90 | 5.30 | 25.90 | 18.50 | 9.10 | 0.6000 |
| CF | Jackson Merrill | - | 1.0922 | 1.2295 | neutral | 0.3470 | 0.2700 | 0.4910 | 12.40 | 48.70 | 91.50 | 14.30 | 27.60 | 24.10 | 6.20 | 0.7714 |
| SS | Xander Bogaerts | - | 1.0303 | 0.4040 | neutral | 0.3250 | 0.2480 | 0.3760 | 5.50 | 42.30 | 89.60 | 6.70 | 23.10 | 18 | 12.70 | 0.5429 |
| C | Luis Campusano | - | 1.0206 | 0.2740 | neutral | 0.3270 | 0.2390 | 0.3910 | 8.10 | 37.70 | 87.30 | 16.30 | 26 | 21.40 | 12.10 | -0.7429 |
| 2B | Jake Cronenworth | - | 0.9549 | -0.6015 | neutral | 0.2750 | 0.2130 | 0.3080 | 3.90 | 29.70 | 87.20 | 11.40 | 21.30 | 22.80 | 8.90 | -0.3429 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2B | Brice Turang | - | 1.0512 | 0.6822 | neutral | 0.3440 | 0.2550 | 0.4280 | 7.70 | 41.60 | 90.30 | 8.80 | 23.10 | 25.10 | 13.20 | -0.4000 |
| LF | Jackson Chourio | - | 1.0702 | 0.9355 | neutral | 0.3440 | 0.2650 | 0.4750 | 12.30 | 47 | 91.60 | 11.80 | 25.10 | 23.40 | 8.20 | -0.4857 |
| C | William Contreras | - | 1.0555 | 0.7396 | neutral | 0.3340 | 0.2610 | 0.4410 | 8.50 | 44.10 | 90.30 | 13.20 | 20.70 | 14.70 | 9.50 | 0.1143 |
| 1B | Jake Bauers | - | 1.0987 | 1.3163 | neutral | 0.3710 | 0.2530 | 0.4670 | 14 | 51.90 | 92.10 | 12.10 | 29.80 | 27 | 16.30 | -0.2857 |
| SS | Cooper Pratt | - | 1.0048 | 0.0641 | neutral | 0.3150 | 0.2660 | 0.3620 | 3.20 | 27.40 | 87 | 9.10 | 21.80 | 18 | 9.80 | -0.1429 |
| CF | Garrett Mitchell | - | 1.0836 | 1.1148 | neutral | 0.3530 | 0.2680 | 0.4470 | 11.70 | 52.70 | 93.20 | 2.20 | 35.80 | 31.50 | 11.30 | 0.3714 |
| DH | Christian Yelich | - | 1.0168 | 0.2241 | neutral | 0.3080 | 0.2300 | 0.3850 | 9.60 | 42.90 | 88.90 | 4 | 29.60 | 27 | 9.80 | 0.0857 |
| RF | Sal Frelick | - | 0.9660 | -0.4529 | neutral | 0.2810 | 0.2410 | 0.3240 | 2.30 | 26.80 | 85.70 | 9.80 | 10.10 | 9.90 | 8.10 | 0.1714 |
| 3B | David Hamilton | - | 0.9538 | -0.6156 | neutral | 0.2760 | 0.2250 | 0.3160 | 3.40 | 27.90 | 86.80 | 12.70 | 21.90 | 22.20 | 8.30 | -0.4857 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0334,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0334,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "668930",
"player_name": "Brice Turang",
"offense_factor": 1.0512,
"quality_score": 0.6822,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "668930",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 619.0,
"k_percent": 25.1,
"bb_percent": 13.2,
"woba": 0.358,
"xwoba": 0.344,
"xba": 0.255,
"xslg": 0.428,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 8.8,
"whiff_percent": 23.1,
"swing_percent": 43.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.8584,
"regression_edge": -0.4,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2857,
"xba_edge": 0.5429,
"xslg_edge": 0.9286,
"barrel_edge": 0.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.5714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.76,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.8667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "694192",
"player_name": "Jackson Chourio",
"offense_factor": 1.0702,
"quality_score": 0.9355,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "694192",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 523.0,
"k_percent": 23.4,
"bb_percent": 8.2,
"woba": 0.361,
"xwoba": 0.344,
"xba": 0.265,
"xslg": 0.475,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 47.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.8,
"whiff_percent": 25.1,
"swing_percent": 47.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.1669,
"regression_edge": -0.4857,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2857,
"xba_edge": 0.8286,
"xslg_edge": 1.6,
"barrel_edge": 1.2667,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.3429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.28,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "661388",
"player_name": "William Contreras",
"offense_factor": 1.0555,
"quality_score": 0.7396,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "661388",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 590.0,
"k_percent": 14.7,
"bb_percent": 9.5,
"woba": 0.33,
"xwoba": 0.334,
"xba": 0.261,
"xslg": 0.441,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 44.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.2,
"whiff_percent": 20.7,
"swing_percent": 47.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.8414,
"regression_edge": 0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0,
"xba_edge": 0.7143,
"xslg_edge": 1.1143,
"barrel_edge": 0.4222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.9286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.76,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "641343",
"player_name": "Jake Bauers",
"offense_factor": 1.0987,
"quality_score": 1.3163,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "641343",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 526.0,
"k_percent": 27.0,
"bb_percent": 16.3,
"woba": 0.381,
"xwoba": 0.371,
"xba": 0.253,
"xslg": 0.467,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 14.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 51.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 92.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.1,
"whiff_percent": 29.8,
"swing_percent": 40.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.5771,
"regression_edge": -0.2857,
"xwoba_edge": 2.0571,
"xba_edge": 0.4857,
"xslg_edge": 1.4857,
"barrel_edge": 1.6444,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.0429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.8833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "806198",
"player_name": "Cooper Pratt",
"offense_factor": 1.0048,
"quality_score": 0.0641,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "806198",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 232.0,
"k_percent": 18.0,
"bb_percent": 9.8,
"woba": 0.32,
"xwoba": 0.315,
"xba": 0.266,
"xslg": 0.362,
"sweet_spot_percent": 41.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 27.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.0,
"launch_angle_avg": 9.1,
"whiff_percent": 21.8,
"swing_percent": 46.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0977,
"regression_edge": -0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
"xba_edge": 0.8571,
"xslg_edge": -0.0143,
"barrel_edge": -0.7556,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.4571,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.56,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.3,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "669003",
"player_name": "Garrett Mitchell",
"offense_factor": 1.0836,
"quality_score": 1.1148,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669003",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 480.0,
"k_percent": 31.5,
"bb_percent": 11.3,
"woba": 0.34,
"xwoba": 0.353,
"xba": 0.268,
"xslg": 0.447,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 11.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 52.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 93.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 2.2,
"whiff_percent": 35.8,
"swing_percent": 43.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.2358,
"regression_edge": 0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.5429,
"xba_edge": 0.9143,
"xslg_edge": 1.2,
"barrel_edge": 1.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.1571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.92,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.3,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "592885",
"player_name": "Christian Yelich",
"offense_factor": 1.0168,
"quality_score": 0.2241,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "592885",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 456.0,
"k_percent": 27.0,
"bb_percent": 9.8,
"woba": 0.305,
"xwoba": 0.308,
"xba": 0.23,
"xslg": 0.385,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 4.0,
"whiff_percent": 29.6,
"swing_percent": 45.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.2466,
"regression_edge": 0.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2571,
"xba_edge": -0.1714,
"xslg_edge": 0.3143,
"barrel_edge": 0.6667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.6333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "686217",
"player_name": "Sal Frelick",
"offense_factor": 0.966,
"quality_score": -0.4529,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "686217",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 356.0,
"k_percent": 9.9,
"bb_percent": 8.1,
"woba": 0.275,
"xwoba": 0.281,
"xba": 0.241,
"xslg": 0.324,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 26.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.7,
"launch_angle_avg": 9.8,
"whiff_percent": 10.1,
"swing_percent": 42.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.5545,
"regression_edge": 0.1714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
"xba_edge": 0.1429,
"xslg_edge": -0.5571,
"barrel_edge": -0.9556,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.5429,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.9833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "666152",
"player_name": "David Hamilton",
"offense_factor": 0.9538,
"quality_score": -0.6156,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "666152",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 344.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.3,
"woba": 0.293,
"xwoba": 0.276,
"xba": 0.225,
"xslg": 0.316,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 27.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 86.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.7,
"whiff_percent": 21.9,
"swing_percent": 45.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.6367,
"regression_edge": -0.4857,
"xwoba_edge": -0.6571,
"xba_edge": -0.3143,
"xslg_edge": -0.6714,
"barrel_edge": -0.7111,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.3857,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.64,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.6667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0286,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0286,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "664034",
"player_name": "Ty France",
"offense_factor": 1.0355,
"quality_score": 0.474,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "664034",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 454.0,
"k_percent": 21.6,
"bb_percent": 7.4,
"woba": 0.373,
"xwoba": 0.327,
"xba": 0.248,
"xslg": 0.421,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 47.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.6,
"whiff_percent": 28.1,
"swing_percent": 54.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.7651,
"regression_edge": -1.3143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8,
"xba_edge": 0.3429,
"xslg_edge": 0.8286,
"barrel_edge": 0.5556,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.4,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.8667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "687957",
"player_name": "Dustin Harris",
"offense_factor": 0.9964,
"quality_score": -0.0484,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "687957",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 105.0,
"k_percent": 13.2,
"bb_percent": 7.2,
"woba": 0.326,
"xwoba": 0.314,
"xba": 0.278,
"xslg": 0.36,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 1.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 19.5,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 15.6,
"whiff_percent": 19.3,
"swing_percent": 48.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.0621,
"regression_edge": -0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
"xba_edge": 1.2,
"xslg_edge": -0.0429,
"barrel_edge": -1.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": -2.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.28,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.0833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "592518",
"player_name": "Manny Machado",
"offense_factor": 1.0494,
"quality_score": 0.6585,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "592518",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 624.0,
"k_percent": 21.3,
"bb_percent": 11.2,
"woba": 0.31,
"xwoba": 0.328,
"xba": 0.243,
"xslg": 0.42,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.5,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.682,
"regression_edge": 0.5143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8286,
"xba_edge": 0.2,
"xslg_edge": 0.8143,
"barrel_edge": 0.6889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.68,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.1,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "806956",
"player_name": "Ethan Salas",
"offense_factor": 0.9573,
"quality_score": -0.5694,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "806956",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 20.0,
"k_percent": 22.5,
"bb_percent": 2.5,
"woba": 0.316,
"xwoba": 0.227,
"xba": 0.188,
"xslg": 0.316,
"sweet_spot_percent": 23.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 25.7,
"whiff_percent": 19.4,
"swing_percent": 48.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -1.1458,
"regression_edge": -2.0,
"xwoba_edge": -2.0571,
"xba_edge": -1.3714,
"xslg_edge": -0.6714,
"barrel_edge": -0.7333,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.6143,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.68,
"sweet_spot_edge": -1.6667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "665487",
"player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
"offense_factor": 1.1212,
"quality_score": 1.6157,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "665487",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 649.0,
"k_percent": 18.5,
"bb_percent": 9.1,
"woba": 0.358,
"xwoba": 0.379,
"xba": 0.296,
"xslg": 0.5,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 53.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 92.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 5.3,
"whiff_percent": 25.9,
"swing_percent": 46.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.7811,
"regression_edge": 0.6,
"xwoba_edge": 2.2857,
"xba_edge": 1.7143,
"xslg_edge": 1.9571,
"barrel_edge": 1.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.3286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.8,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.1833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "701538",
"player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
"offense_factor": 1.0922,
"quality_score": 1.2295,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "701538",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 619.0,
"k_percent": 24.1,
"bb_percent": 6.2,
"woba": 0.32,
"xwoba": 0.347,
"xba": 0.27,
"xslg": 0.491,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 48.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.3,
"whiff_percent": 27.6,
"swing_percent": 56.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.3041,
"regression_edge": 0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.3714,
"xba_edge": 0.9714,
"xslg_edge": 1.8286,
"barrel_edge": 1.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.5857,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.0833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "593428",
"player_name": "Xander Bogaerts",
"offense_factor": 1.0303,
"quality_score": 0.404,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "593428",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 568.0,
"k_percent": 18.0,
"bb_percent": 12.7,
"woba": 0.306,
"xwoba": 0.325,
"xba": 0.248,
"xslg": 0.376,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 6.7,
"whiff_percent": 23.1,
"swing_percent": 41.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3813,
"regression_edge": 0.5429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.7429,
"xba_edge": 0.3429,
"xslg_edge": 0.1857,
"barrel_edge": -0.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.9,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "669134",
"player_name": "Luis Campusano",
"offense_factor": 1.0206,
"quality_score": 0.274,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669134",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 226.0,
"k_percent": 21.4,
"bb_percent": 12.1,
"woba": 0.353,
"xwoba": 0.327,
"xba": 0.239,
"xslg": 0.391,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.3,
"whiff_percent": 26.0,
"swing_percent": 46.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.4396,
"regression_edge": -0.7429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8,
"xba_edge": 0.0857,
"xslg_edge": 0.4,
"barrel_edge": 0.3333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.44,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.7333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "630105",
"player_name": "Jake Cronenworth",
"offense_factor": 0.9549,
"quality_score": -0.6015,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "630105",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 383.0,
"k_percent": 22.8,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.287,
"xwoba": 0.275,
"xba": 0.213,
"xslg": 0.308,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 29.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.4,
"whiff_percent": 21.3,
"swing_percent": 45.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.6436,
"regression_edge": -0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": -0.6857,
"xba_edge": -0.6571,
"xslg_edge": -0.7857,
"barrel_edge": -0.6,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.1286,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.4333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away SD | True | - | -0.0884 | 1 | 1.0075 | 0.9897 | 1 | 0.9966 | neutral | 0.3220 | 0.2950 | 21 | 9.20 | 24.50 | 8.20 | 32.70 | |
| Home MIL | True | - | 0.6816 | 1 | 0.9421 | 1.0503 | 0.9180 | 0.9667 | neutral | 0.2570 | 0.2520 | 29.60 | 5.10 | 26.50 | 8.30 | 36.90 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away SD | True | None | 98 | 89.00 | 2292 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0483 | |
| Home MIL | True | None | 95 | 88.27 | 2418 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0895 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 0.9668 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 1.0107 |
| home_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9421 |
| away_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 1.0075 |
| home_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6667 |
| away_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6667 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | 0.5133 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "701656",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 348.0,
"k_percent": 29.6,
"bb_percent": 5.1,
"woba": 0.252,
"xwoba": 0.257,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.2333,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8148,
"whiff_percent": 26.5,
"swing_percent": 53.2
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9063,
"command_and_miss": 0.7521,
"regression_edge": -0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.5714,
"barrel_edge": -0.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
"whiff_edge": 0.1857,
"bb_edge": 1.025,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0895
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "701656",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 95,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.2657231915627,
"release_spin_rate": 2417.7993644891867,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.2657231915627,
"release_spin_rate": 2417.7993644891867,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.2657,
"release_spin_rate": 2417.7994,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0895,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.6394,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.6816,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9421,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0503,
"walk_factor": 0.918,
"homer_factor": 0.9667,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "701656",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650633",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 730.0,
"k_percent": 21.0,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.295,
"xwoba": 0.322,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
"avg_best_speed": 75.9245,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.0549,
"whiff_percent": 24.5,
"swing_percent": 46.5
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0358,
"command_and_miss": -0.1057,
"regression_edge": -0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
"barrel_edge": -0.2222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
"whiff_edge": -0.1,
"bb_edge": 0.0,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0483
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650633",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 98,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.0017,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0483,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.345,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.0884,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
"walk_factor": 1.0,
"homer_factor": 0.9966,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "650633",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 0.9668,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 1.0107,
"home_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.9421,
"away_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 1.0075,
"home_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6667,
"away_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6667,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": 0.5133
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 4.0,
"home_runs": 4.0
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 3.8673,
"home_runs": 4.0427,
"home_win_probability": 0.5241
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away SD | 8-2 | 0.800 | 6.30 | 4.50 | 18 | 2W | hot | average |
| Home MIL | 8-2 | 0.800 | 4.40 | 3 | 14 | 5W | average | strong |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away SD | 91-71 | 0.562 | 41 | 0.253 | True |
| Home MIL | 103-59 | 0.636 | 214 | 1.321 | True |
| Signal | - | - | 1.068 | 0.723 | applied=True |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | MIL @ SD | 3 - 4 | SD | 1 | close |
| 2026-08-11 | MIL @ SD | 2 - 11 | SD | 9 | blowout |
| 2026-08-10 | MIL @ SD | 2 - 3 | SD | 1 | close |
| 2026-05-14 | SD @ MIL | 1 - 7 | MIL | 6 | blowout |
| 2026-05-13 | SD @ MIL | 3 - 1 | SD | 2 | close |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target SD | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target MIL | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized SD | 33 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| Player finalized MIL | 33 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| Player model fractional SD | 33.95 | 8.01 | 4.38 | 1.15 | 4.47 | 2.49 | 8.09 |
| Player model fractional MIL | 32.76 | 7.83 | 5.01 | 1.08 | 4.96 | 3.96 | 7.75 |
| Simulation box SD | 32 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| Simulation box MIL | 34 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away SD | Starter | Michael King | 6 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 3.03 | 1.14 | True |
| Away SD | Closer | Mason Miller | 1.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.94 | 1.36 | True |
| Away SD | Setup Man | Adrian Morejon | 0.10 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2.95 | 1.14 | True |
| Home MIL | Starter | Logan Henderson | 6 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2.73 | 0.90 | True |
| Home MIL | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Aaron Ashby | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3.05 | 0.91 | True |
| Home MIL | Setup Man | Abner Uribe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.11 | 1.35 | True |
| Home MIL | Closer | Trevor Megill | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3.84 | 1.03 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | MIL | batter | DH | Christian Yelich | better | 9 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 2 | predicted_RBI | 2.5200 | boost | better |
| home | MIL | batter | C | William Contreras | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_SO | 2.3630 | boost | worse |
| home | MIL | batter | 1B | Jake Bauers | better | 12 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | predicted_H | 2.1300 | boost | better |
| away | SD | batter | DH | Ethan Salas | better | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 3 | predicted_AB | 1.5000 | boost | better |
| away | SD | batter | RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | worse | 10 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 10 | predicted_H | -1.3600 | deboost | worse |
| away | SD | batter | CF | Jackson Merrill | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_RBI | 1.3400 | boost | better |
| away | SD | batter | SS | Xander Bogaerts | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_SO | 1.2950 | boost | worse |
| home | MIL | batter | 3B | David Hamilton | worse | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8 | predicted_SO | 1.2410 | boost | worse |
| away | SD | batter | 1B | Ty France | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 8 | predicted_AB | -1.2100 | deboost | worse |
| away | SD | batter | 3B | Manny Machado | worse | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 9 | predicted_H | -1.1900 | deboost | worse |
| home | MIL | batter | 2B | Brice Turang | worse | 11 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 9 | predicted_SO | -1.1220 | deboost | better |
| home | MIL | batter | LF | Jackson Chourio | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 7 | predicted_RBI | -1.1100 | deboost | worse |
| away | SD | pitcher | Starter | Michael King | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SO | 1.0000 | boost | better |
| away | SD | pitcher | Closer | Mason Miller | neutral | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO | -1.0000 | deboost | worse |
| away | SD | batter | LF | Dustin Harris | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_H | 0.8900 | boost | better |
| home | MIL | batter | RF | Sal Frelick | worse | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | predicted_AB | 0.8680 | boost | better |
| away | SD | batter | C | Luis Campusano | worse | 9 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | predicted_H | -0.8500 | deboost | worse |
| home | MIL | batter | SS | Cooper Pratt | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | predicted_H | -0.8500 | deboost | worse |
| away | SD | batter | 2B | Jake Cronenworth | worse | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 9 | predicted_H | -0.7300 | deboost | worse |
| home | MIL | batter | CF | Garrett Mitchell | deboosted | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | predicted_R | 0.4780 | boost | better |
| away | SD | pitcher | Setup Man | Adrian Morejon | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Michael King |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0884 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0483 |
| Avg Velo | 89.0017 |
| Avg Spin | 2291.8143 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 6 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 6 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 5 |
| Season ERA | 3.0938 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1562 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.8180 |
| Recent Avg IP | 6 |
| Last Start IP | 7 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9922,
"defense_index": 1.0686,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"opponent": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358,
"runs_scored": 832.0,
"runs_allowed": 618.0,
"run_differential": 214.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
"offense_index": 1.1433,
"defense_index": 1.1775,
"current_streak": "W5",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
"run_differential": 14.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3822
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1938,
"offense_edge": -0.0078,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1433,
"defense_strength": 0.0686,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1775,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9886,
"run_prevention": 1.0258,
"strikeout": 0.9827
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "650633",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650633",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 730.0,
"k_percent": 21.0,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.295,
"xwoba": 0.322,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
"avg_best_speed": 75.9245,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.0549,
"whiff_percent": 24.5,
"swing_percent": 46.5
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0358,
"command_and_miss": -0.1057,
"regression_edge": -0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
"barrel_edge": -0.2222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
"whiff_edge": -0.1,
"bb_edge": 0.0,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0483
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650633",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 98,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.0017,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0483,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.345,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.0884,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
"walk_factor": 1.0,
"homer_factor": 0.9966,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "650633",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0075,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 1.0075,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9966,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 0.9897,
"adjusted": 5
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 61.2,
"ER": 16,
"H": 47,
"BB": 19,
"SO": 53,
"HR": 6,
"ERA": 2.335135135135135,
"WHIP": 1.0702702702702702,
"K9": 7.735135135135135,
"HR9": 0.8756756756756756,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 9,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-29T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650633",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 98,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.0017,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0483,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.345,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 33.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8684,
"prior_weight": 0.1316
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "650633",
"report_date": "20261004",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 33,
"reference_playing_time": 6.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 30.0,
"ER": 10.0,
"R": 10.0,
"H": 23.0,
"BB": 10.0,
"SO": 26.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 121.0,
"Pitches": 474.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 4.6,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.2,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 24.2,
"Pitches": 94.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.0,
"WHIP": 1.1,
"ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
"H_per_IP": 0.76667,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
"SO_per_IP": 0.86667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.06667
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 61.2,
"ER": 16.0,
"R": 17.0,
"H": 47.0,
"BB": 19.0,
"SO": 53.0,
"HR": 6.0,
"BF": 245.0,
"Pitches": 944.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 1.6,
"R": 1.7,
"H": 4.7,
"BB": 1.9,
"SO": 5.3,
"HR": 0.6,
"BF": 24.5,
"Pitches": 94.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.3351,
"WHIP": 1.0703,
"ER_per_IP": 0.25946,
"H_per_IP": 0.76216,
"BB_per_IP": 0.30811,
"SO_per_IP": 0.85946,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0973
}
},
"season": {
"games": 33,
"totals": {
"IP": 192.0,
"ER": 66.0,
"R": 68.0,
"H": 149.0,
"BB": 73.0,
"SO": 167.0,
"HR": 20.0,
"BF": 783.0,
"Pitches": 3078.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0606,
"H": 4.5152,
"BB": 2.2121,
"SO": 5.0606,
"HR": 0.6061,
"BF": 23.7273,
"Pitches": 93.2727
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.0938,
"WHIP": 1.1562,
"ER_per_IP": 0.34375,
"H_per_IP": 0.77604,
"BB_per_IP": 0.38021,
"SO_per_IP": 0.86979,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10417
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.998,
"predicted_H": 4.727,
"predicted_BB": 2.02,
"predicted_SO": 5.192,
"predicted_HR": 0.554,
"predicted_ERA": 3.0261,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1354
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4056,
"form_weight": 0.5944,
"form_reliability": 0.8684,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 33.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8684,
"prior_weight": 0.1316
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 6.0,
"final": 6.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.998,
"final": 1.9988,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 4.727,
"final": 5.2433,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 2.02,
"final": 1.2007,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 5.192,
"final": 4.7085,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.554,
"final": 0.7349,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.0261,
"final": 3.0261,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1354,
"final": 1.1354,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Mason Miller |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 1.4216 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.2000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 1.6479 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9014 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.0600 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9922,
"defense_index": 1.0686,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"opponent": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358,
"runs_scored": 832.0,
"runs_allowed": 618.0,
"run_differential": 214.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
"offense_index": 1.1433,
"defense_index": 1.1775,
"current_streak": "W5",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
"run_differential": 14.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3822
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1938,
"offense_edge": -0.0078,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1433,
"defense_strength": 0.0686,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1775,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9886,
"run_prevention": 1.0258,
"strikeout": 0.9827
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "695243",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "695243",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 245.0,
"k_percent": 47.4,
"bb_percent": 9.6,
"woba": 0.208,
"xwoba": 0.201,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 28.7,
"avg_best_speed": 75.8134,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.7864,
"whiff_percent": 45.3,
"swing_percent": 47.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.6353,
"command_and_miss": 1.98,
"regression_edge": 0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 0.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.3143,
"whiff_edge": 2.5,
"bb_edge": -0.1,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "695243",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 1.4216,
"sample_weight": 0.98,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.8792,
"strikeout_factor": 1.16,
"walk_factor": 1.0078,
"homer_factor": 0.8715,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "695243",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.8816,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.8816,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0076,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.8741,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.1568,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.2,
"ER": 5,
"H": 9,
"BB": 5,
"SO": 20,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 4.218749999999999,
"WHIP": 1.3124999999999998,
"K9": 16.874999999999996,
"HR9": 0.8437499999999999,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-30T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "695243",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 14.642,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7454,
"prior_weight": 0.2546
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "695243",
"report_date": "20261004",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 67,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 4.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 8.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 24.0,
"Pitches": 85.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.8,
"R": 0.8,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.6,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.8,
"Pitches": 17.0
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.6,
"ER_per_IP": 0.8,
"H_per_IP": 1.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.6,
"SO_per_IP": 1.6,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.2,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 5.0,
"SO": 20.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 47.0,
"Pitches": 184.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.5,
"R": 0.5,
"H": 0.9,
"BB": 0.5,
"SO": 2.0,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 4.7,
"Pitches": 18.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.2188,
"WHIP": 1.3125,
"ER_per_IP": 0.46875,
"H_per_IP": 0.84375,
"BB_per_IP": 0.46875,
"SO_per_IP": 1.875,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09375
}
},
"season": {
"games": 67,
"totals": {
"IP": 71.0,
"ER": 13.0,
"R": 16.0,
"H": 38.0,
"BB": 26.0,
"SO": 131.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 276.0,
"Pitches": 1168.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.194,
"R": 0.2388,
"H": 0.5672,
"BB": 0.3881,
"SO": 1.9552,
"HR": 0.0448,
"BF": 4.1194,
"Pitches": 17.4328
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.6479,
"WHIP": 0.9014,
"ER_per_IP": 0.1831,
"H_per_IP": 0.53521,
"BB_per_IP": 0.3662,
"SO_per_IP": 1.84507,
"HR_per_IP": 0.04225
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.548,
"predicted_H": 0.886,
"predicted_BB": 0.475,
"predicted_SO": 1.538,
"predicted_HR": 0.068,
"predicted_ERA": 4.9352,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3607
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4576,
"form_weight": 0.5424,
"form_reliability": 0.7454,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 14.642,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7454,
"prior_weight": 0.2546
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.548,
"final": 0.2973,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.886,
"final": 0.4806,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.475,
"final": 0.2577,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.538,
"final": 1.7494,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.068,
"final": 0.0369,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.9352,
"final": 4.9352,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3607,
"final": 1.3607,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Adrian Morejon |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 1.1536 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 0.1000 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 4 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.8000 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0778 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.1540 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.4670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9922,
"defense_index": 1.0686,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"opponent": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358,
"runs_scored": 832.0,
"runs_allowed": 618.0,
"run_differential": 214.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
"offense_index": 1.1433,
"defense_index": 1.1775,
"current_streak": "W5",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
"run_differential": 14.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3822
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1938,
"offense_edge": -0.0078,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1433,
"defense_strength": 0.0686,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1775,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9886,
"run_prevention": 1.0258,
"strikeout": 0.9827
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "670970",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670970",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 324.0,
"k_percent": 30.4,
"bb_percent": 8.0,
"woba": 0.244,
"xwoba": 0.237,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.5,
"avg_best_speed": 74.3318,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.3234,
"whiff_percent": 34.2,
"swing_percent": 52.6
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.5398,
"command_and_miss": 1.0436,
"regression_edge": 0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 2.1429,
"barrel_edge": 0.9778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7714,
"whiff_edge": 1.2857,
"bb_edge": 0.3,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "670970",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 1.1536,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9019,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0989,
"walk_factor": 0.976,
"homer_factor": 0.8266,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "670970",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9019,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9019,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.976,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.8266,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0989,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 11.1,
"ER": 3,
"H": 8,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 13,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 2.382352941176471,
"WHIP": 1.0588235294117647,
"K9": 10.323529411764707,
"HR9": 0.7941176470588236,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-03T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "670970",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 18.56,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7878,
"prior_weight": 0.2122
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "670970",
"report_date": "20261004",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 78,
"reference_playing_time": 0.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 7.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 29.0,
"Pitches": 98.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 5.8,
"Pitches": 19.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.4545,
"WHIP": 1.0909,
"ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
"H_per_IP": 0.81818,
"BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
"SO_per_IP": 0.81818,
"HR_per_IP": 0.13636
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 11.1,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 8.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 13.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 45.0,
"Pitches": 158.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.3,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 4.5,
"Pitches": 15.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.3824,
"WHIP": 1.0588,
"ER_per_IP": 0.26471,
"H_per_IP": 0.70588,
"BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
"SO_per_IP": 1.14706,
"HR_per_IP": 0.08824
}
},
"season": {
"games": 78,
"totals": {
"IP": 90.0,
"ER": 28.0,
"R": 33.0,
"H": 69.0,
"BB": 28.0,
"SO": 109.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 367.0,
"Pitches": 1378.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.359,
"R": 0.4231,
"H": 0.8846,
"BB": 0.359,
"SO": 1.3974,
"HR": 0.0641,
"BF": 4.7051,
"Pitches": 17.6667
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.8,
"WHIP": 1.0778,
"ER_per_IP": 0.31111,
"H_per_IP": 0.76667,
"BB_per_IP": 0.31111,
"SO_per_IP": 1.21111,
"HR_per_IP": 0.05556
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.32,
"predicted_H": 0.795,
"predicted_BB": 0.316,
"predicted_SO": 0.972,
"predicted_HR": 0.11,
"predicted_ERA": 2.9466,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1379
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4397,
"form_weight": 0.5603,
"form_reliability": 0.7878,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 18.56,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7878,
"prior_weight": 0.2122
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.1,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 0.32,
"final": 1.4983,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 0.795,
"final": 2.2041,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.316,
"final": 0.1771,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.972,
"final": 0.9843,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.11,
"final": 0.0616,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.9466,
"final": 2.9466,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1379,
"final": 1.1379,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.192 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.215 | 0.000 | -0.215 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.210 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.600 | 4.000 | -0.600 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.280 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.307 | 0.250 | 0.026 | 0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.285 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.302 | 0.000 | 0.698 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.180 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.106 | 1.000 | -0.106 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.177 | 0.000 | -0.177 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.385 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.372 | 0.400 | 0.128 | 0.100 |
| predicted_R | 0.469 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.498 | 0.000 | 0.502 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.598 | 0.000 | -0.598 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.521 | 0.250 | -0.188 | 0.083 |
| predicted_SO | 0.846 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.831 | 1.000 | 1.169 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8460 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1540, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.2100 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.2100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2800 -> 0.2901 (boost 0.0101, better) | predicted_AB: 4.2100 -> 3.9693 (deboost -0.2407, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3807 -> 0.3299 (deboost -0.0508, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.8542 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1458, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4538 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4538, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.026 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4933 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4933, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5709 (boost 0.5709, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.9179 (deboost -0.0821, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5709 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4291, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2782 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2782, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2390 -> 0.2829 (boost 0.0439, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "664034",
"player_name": "Ty France",
"position": "1B",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.015,
"predicted_AB": 4.21,
"predicted_AVG": 0.28,
"predicted_BB": 0.285,
"predicted_H": 1.18,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_OBP": 0.385,
"predicted_R": 0.469,
"predicted_RBI": 0.48,
"predicted_SLG": 0.424,
"predicted_SO": 0.846
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1855,
"predicted_3B": 0.0128,
"predicted_AB": 3.9693,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2901,
"predicted_BB": 0.2798,
"predicted_H": 1.1492,
"predicted_HBP": 0.171,
"predicted_HR": 0.1126,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3807,
"predicted_R": 0.5128,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4718,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4318,
"predicted_SO": 0.849
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"delta": -0.0065,
"percent_delta": -0.0339,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.015,
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"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.1467,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 3.9693,
"delta": -0.2407,
"percent_delta": -0.0572,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"delta": 0.0101,
"percent_delta": 0.0361,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"delta": -0.0052,
"percent_delta": -0.0182,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.18,
"after": 1.1492,
"delta": -0.0308,
"percent_delta": -0.0261,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.1126,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0617,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.385,
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"delta": -0.0043,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"percent_delta": 0.0934,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 0.4718,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.0171,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.424,
"after": 0.4318,
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"percent_delta": 0.0184,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 130
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0128,
"predicted_AB": 3.9693,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2829,
"predicted_BB": 0.2781,
"predicted_H": 1.1231,
"predicted_HBP": 0.171,
"predicted_HR": 0.1094,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3299,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.4538,
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{
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{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
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},
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{
"index": 4,
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"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
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{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.026",
"stats": {
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{
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{
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"step": "consistency_constraints",
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
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"predicted_3B": 0.011,
"predicted_BB": 0.2782,
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"predicted_HR": 0.1502,
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{
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{
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{
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],
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"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
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},
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],
"summary": {
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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},
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{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2829,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3299,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4188,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": 0.0108,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.469,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.48,
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"delta": -0.48,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.424,
"after": 0.4188,
"delta": -0.0052,
"percent_delta": -0.0123,
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"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.846,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.154,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 7,
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 4.21,
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.192 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.210 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.280 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.285 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.180 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.385 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.469 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.846 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.185 | -0.007 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.969 | -0.241 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.290 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.280 | -0.005 |
| predicted_H | 1.149 | -0.031 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.171 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.113 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.381 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.513 | 0.044 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.472 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.432 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.849 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.185 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.969 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.283 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.278 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.123 | -0.026 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.171 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.109 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.330 | -0.051 |
| predicted_R | 0.493 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.454 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.854 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.026
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.174 | 0.174 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.278 | 0.278 |
| H | 0.918 | -0.082 |
| HR | 0.150 | 0.150 |
| RBI | 0.571 | 0.571 |
| SO | 1.173 | 0.173 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.278 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.082 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.429 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.173 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.185 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.031 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | -0.044 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.278 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.123 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.109 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | -0.034 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.493 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.454 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.408 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.146 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.4000 | 0.4783 | 0.4500 | 0.4000 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.0500 | 0.1500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 11.000 | 0.2368 | 0.3256 | 0.2632 | 0.2368 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.0790 | 0.2895 |
| season | 0.60 | 130 | - | 452.000 | 135.000 | 25.000 | 2.000 | 21.000 | 72.000 | 61.000 | 37.000 | 110.000 | 0.2987 | 0.3640 | 0.5022 | 0.2987 | 0.0465 | 0.1593 | 0.0819 | 0.2434 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1770 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6550 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3033 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2730 |
| predicted_H | 1.1090 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1710 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1030 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3751 |
| predicted_R | 0.5700 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4610 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4419 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8530 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1920 | 0.1770 | 0.1855 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 | 0.0100 | 0.0128 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.2100 | 3.6550 | 3.9693 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2800 | 0.3033 | 0.2901 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2850 | 0.2730 | 0.2798 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1800 | 1.1090 | 1.1492 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1710 | 0.1710 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 | 0.1030 | 0.1126 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3850 | 0.3751 | 0.3807 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4690 | 0.5700 | 0.5128 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4800 | 0.4610 | 0.4718 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4240 | 0.4419 | 0.4318 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8460 | 0.8530 | 0.8490 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 480 |
| Season rows before report date | 480 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 130 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664034 |
| playerID | 664034 |
| playerName | Ty France |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.373 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.327 |
| sl_xba | 0.248 |
| sl_xslg | 0.421 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.093 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.151 | 0.000 | -0.151 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.093 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.137 | 0.000 | -0.137 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.820 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.616 | 4.000 | 0.384 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.290 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.356 | 0.500 | 0.144 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.233 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.233 | 1.000 | -0.233 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.041 | 1.000 | -0.041 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.110 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.288 | 2.000 | 0.712 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.391 | 0.600 | 0.109 | -0.100 |
| predicted_R | 0.535 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.671 | 0.000 | 0.329 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.767 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.370 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.473 | 0.500 | 0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.465 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.452 | 0.000 | 0.548 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.1100 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.8900, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.2330 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2330, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AB: 3.8200 -> 3.6972 (deboost -0.1228, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3743 -> 0.3822 (boost 0.0079, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3352 -> 0.3241 (deboost -0.0111, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.4541 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5459, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3634 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3634, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.008 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5332 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4668, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5003 (boost 0.5003, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.8128 (deboost -0.1872, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.8128 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1872, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.5003 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5003, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2820 -> 0.2270 (deboost -0.0550, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2270 -> 0.2820 (boost 0.0550, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "687957",
"player_name": "Dustin Harris",
"position": "LF",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.093,
"predicted_3B": 0.093,
"predicted_AB": 3.82,
"predicted_AVG": 0.29,
"predicted_BB": 0.233,
"predicted_H": 1.11,
"predicted_HR": 0.04,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 0.535,
"predicted_RBI": 0.41,
"predicted_SLG": 0.37,
"predicted_SO": 0.465
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0866,
"predicted_3B": 0.0954,
"predicted_AB": 3.6972,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2882,
"predicted_BB": 0.2314,
"predicted_H": 1.0669,
"predicted_HBP": 0.076,
"predicted_HR": 0.0319,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3352,
"predicted_R": 0.5543,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3778,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3743,
"predicted_SO": 0.4513
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.093,
"after": 0.0866,
"delta": -0.0064,
"percent_delta": -0.0688,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.093,
"after": 0.0954,
"delta": 0.0024,
"percent_delta": 0.0258,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.82,
"after": 3.6972,
"delta": -0.1228,
"percent_delta": -0.0321,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.2882,
"delta": -0.0018,
"percent_delta": -0.0062,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.2314,
"delta": -0.0016,
"percent_delta": -0.0069,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.11,
"after": 1.0669,
"delta": -0.0431,
"percent_delta": -0.0388,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.0319,
"delta": -0.0081,
"percent_delta": -0.2025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3352,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0066,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.535,
"after": 0.5543,
"delta": 0.0193,
"percent_delta": 0.0361,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.3778,
"delta": -0.0322,
"percent_delta": -0.0785,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.3743,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.0116,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4513,
"delta": -0.0137,
"percent_delta": -0.0295,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.82,
"after": 3.6972,
"delta": -0.1228,
"percent_delta": -0.0321,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 43
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0866,
"predicted_3B": 0.0954,
"predicted_AB": 3.6972,
"predicted_AVG": 0.282,
"predicted_BB": 0.23,
"predicted_H": 1.0427,
"predicted_HBP": 0.076,
"predicted_HR": 0.031,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3241,
"predicted_R": 0.5332,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3634,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3822,
"predicted_SO": 0.4541
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0866,
"after": 0.0866,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0954,
"after": 0.0954,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6972,
"after": 3.6972,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2882,
"after": 0.282,
"delta": -0.0062,
"percent_delta": -0.0215,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2314,
"after": 0.23,
"delta": -0.0014,
"percent_delta": -0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0669,
"after": 1.0427,
"delta": -0.0242,
"percent_delta": -0.0227,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.076,
"after": 0.076,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0319,
"after": 0.031,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0282,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3352,
"after": 0.3241,
"delta": -0.0111,
"percent_delta": -0.0331,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5543,
"after": 0.5332,
"delta": -0.0211,
"percent_delta": -0.0381,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3778,
"after": 0.3634,
"delta": -0.0144,
"percent_delta": -0.0381,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3743,
"after": 0.3822,
"delta": 0.0079,
"percent_delta": 0.0211,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.4513,
"after": 0.4541,
"delta": 0.0028,
"percent_delta": 0.0062,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3743,
"after": 0.3822,
"delta": 0.0079,
"percent_delta": 0.0211,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3352,
"after": 0.3241,
"delta": -0.0111,
"percent_delta": -0.0331,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.227,
"after": 0.282,
"delta": 0.055,
"percent_delta": 0.2424,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.3241,
"delta": 0.0361,
"percent_delta": 0.1252,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.341,
"after": 0.3822,
"delta": 0.0412,
"percent_delta": 0.1208,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.227,
"after": 0.282,
"delta": 0.055,
"percent_delta": 0.2424,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.093,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.093,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.093,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.093,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.82,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.18,
"percent_delta": 0.0471,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.282,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -0.0276,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.233,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.11,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.89,
"percent_delta": 0.8018,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.04,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3241,
"delta": -0.0089,
"percent_delta": -0.0267,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.535,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.465,
"percent_delta": 0.8692,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.59,
"percent_delta": 1.439,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.3822,
"delta": 0.0122,
"percent_delta": 0.033,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.535,
"percent_delta": 1.1505,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.11,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.89,
"percent_delta": 0.8018,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.233,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.093 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.093 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.820 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.233 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.110 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.535 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.370 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.465 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.087 | -0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.095 | 0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.697 | -0.123 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.288 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.231 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.067 | -0.043 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.076 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.032 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.335 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.554 | 0.019 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.378 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.374 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.451 | -0.014 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.087 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.095 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.697 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.282 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.230 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.043 | -0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.076 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.031 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.533 | -0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.363 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.454 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.008
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.166 | 0.166 |
| 3B | 0.021 | 0.021 |
| BB | 0.298 | 0.298 |
| H | 0.875 | -0.125 |
| HR | 0.078 | 0.078 |
| RBI | 0.500 | 0.500 |
| SO | 0.813 | -0.187 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.021 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.298 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.125 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.078 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.500 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.187 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.087 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.095 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.303 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | -0.055 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.230 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.043 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.031 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.288 | -0.036 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.467 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.363 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.341 | -0.041 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.546 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.3500 | 0.3810 | 0.4500 | 0.3500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3171 | 0.3056 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0278 | 0.0556 | 0.0833 |
| season | 0.60 | 43 | - | 139.000 | 40.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 19.000 | 23.000 | 10.000 | 20.000 | 0.2878 | 0.3419 | 0.3741 | 0.2878 | 0.0000 | 0.1367 | 0.0719 | 0.1439 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0770 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0990 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5150 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2855 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2290 |
| predicted_H | 1.0030 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0760 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0200 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3384 |
| predicted_R | 0.5830 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3300 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3807 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4310 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0930 | 0.0770 | 0.0866 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0930 | 0.0990 | 0.0954 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8200 | 3.5150 | 3.6972 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2900 | 0.2855 | 0.2882 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2330 | 0.2290 | 0.2314 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1100 | 1.0030 | 1.0669 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0760 | 0.0760 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 | 0.0200 | 0.0319 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3330 | 0.3384 | 0.3352 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5350 | 0.5830 | 0.5543 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4100 | 0.3300 | 0.3778 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3700 | 0.3807 | 0.3743 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4650 | 0.4310 | 0.4513 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 73 |
| Season rows before report date | 73 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 43 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 1 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 687957 |
| playerID | 687957 |
| playerName | Dustin Harris |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 13.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.326 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.314 |
| sl_xba | 0.278 |
| sl_xslg | 0.36 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 1.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 19.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.153 | 1.000 | -0.153 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.530 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.769 | 4.000 | 0.231 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.223 | 0.500 | -0.223 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.484 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.505 | 1.000 | -0.505 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.190 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.841 | 2.000 | -0.841 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.197 | 0.000 | -0.197 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | 0.000 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.311 | 0.600 | -0.311 | -0.600 |
| predicted_R | 0.522 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.553 | 0.000 | -0.553 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.790 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.607 | 0.000 | -0.607 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.477 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.420 | 0.750 | -0.420 | -0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.907 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.899 | 1.000 | 1.101 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.9070 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0930, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.1900 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1900, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4770 -> 0.5004 (boost 0.0234, better) | predicted_AB: 4.5300 -> 4.1666 (deboost -0.3634, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5004 -> 0.4733 (deboost -0.0271, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_RBI: 0.7464 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2536, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4549 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4549, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.053 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4984 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4984, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4046 (boost 0.4046, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5598 (deboost -0.4402, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.1579 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.1579, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3760 -> 0.4733 (boost 0.0973, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "592518",
"player_name": "Manny Machado",
"position": "3B",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_HR": 0.24,
"predicted_OBP": 0.345,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.79,
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"predicted_SO": 0.907
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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},
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"percent_delta": -0.0707,
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},
{
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},
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
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{
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"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.204,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.285,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.376,
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},
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2594,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3323,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4733,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0973,
"percent_delta": 0.2587,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.522,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.79,
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"delta": -0.79,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.477,
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"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0078,
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},
{
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"before": 0.907,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.530 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.484 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.190 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.522 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.790 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.477 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.907 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.175 | 0.026 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.167 | -0.363 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.458 | -0.026 |
| predicted_H | 1.106 | -0.084 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.245 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.344 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.518 | -0.004 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.776 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.500 | 0.023 |
| predicted_SO | 0.887 | -0.020 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.175 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.167 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.259 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.455 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.081 | -0.025 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.238 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.332 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.498 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.746 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.473 | -0.027 |
| predicted_SO | 0.893 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.053
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.154 | 0.154 |
| 3B | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| BB | 0.405 | 0.405 |
| H | 0.784 | -0.216 |
| HR | 0.165 | 0.165 |
| RBI | 0.560 | -0.440 |
| SO | 1.158 | 0.158 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.154 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.595 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.216 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.836 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.440 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.158 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.175 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.167 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.204 | -0.055 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.455 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.081 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.238 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | -0.047 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.498 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.254 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.376 | -0.097 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.107 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.4444 | 0.5000 | 0.8889 | 0.4444 | 0.1111 | 0.3333 | 0.1111 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 0.2432 | 0.2927 | 0.5405 | 0.2432 | 0.0811 | 0.2432 | 0.0811 | 0.2703 |
| season | 0.60 | 161 | - | 600.000 | 133.000 | 24.000 | 0.000 | 31.000 | 93.000 | 84.000 | 78.000 | 146.000 | 0.2217 | 0.3077 | 0.4167 | 0.2217 | 0.0517 | 0.1550 | 0.1300 | 0.2433 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2090 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2696 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4240 |
| predicted_H | 0.9980 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2520 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3416 |
| predicted_R | 0.5130 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7580 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5305 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8620 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1490 | 0.2090 | 0.1753 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.5300 | 3.7000 | 4.1666 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2630 | 0.2696 | 0.2659 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4840 | 0.4240 | 0.4577 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1900 | 0.9980 | 1.1059 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2400 | 0.2520 | 0.2453 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3450 | 0.3416 | 0.3435 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5220 | 0.5130 | 0.5181 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7900 | 0.7580 | 0.7760 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4770 | 0.5305 | 0.5004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9070 | 0.8620 | 0.8873 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 646 |
| Season rows before report date | 646 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 161 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 592518 |
| playerID | 592518 |
| playerName | Manny Machado |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.31 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.328 |
| sl_xba | 0.243 |
| sl_xslg | 0.42 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.058 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.067 | 0.000 | -0.067 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.700 | 3.000 | 1.300 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.256 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.222 | 0.333 | 0.028 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.058 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.033 | 0.000 | -0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.640 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.600 | 1.000 | 0.400 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.267 | 0.000 | 0.733 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.273 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.229 | 0.333 | 0.021 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.407 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.467 | 1.000 | 0.533 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.349 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.442 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.568 | 0.333 | 0.432 | 0.667 |
| predicted_SO | 0.640 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.700 | 1.000 | -0.700 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 8 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.5000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6400 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6400, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 2.6682 (boost 0.1682, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4451 -> 0.4353 (deboost -0.0098, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_SO: 0.6587 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3413, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3655 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3655, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.043 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4303 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4303, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4088 (boost 0.4088, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6962 (deboost -0.3038, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.6962 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6962, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4353 -> 0.3750 (deboost -0.0603, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3750 -> 0.4353 (boost 0.0603, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "806956",
"player_name": "Ethan Salas",
"position": "DH",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.058,
"predicted_AB": 2.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.256,
"predicted_BB": 0.058,
"predicted_H": 0.64,
"predicted_HR": 0.116,
"predicted_OBP": 0.273,
"predicted_R": 0.407,
"predicted_RBI": 0.349,
"predicted_SLG": 0.442,
"predicted_SO": 0.64
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0186,
"predicted_3B": 0.0487,
"predicted_AB": 2.6682,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2683,
"predicted_BB": 0.0793,
"predicted_H": 0.7199,
"predicted_HBP": 0.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.1173,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2889,
"predicted_R": 0.4473,
"predicted_RBI": 0.38,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4451,
"predicted_SO": 0.6547
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0186,
"delta": 0.0186,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.058,
"after": 0.0487,
"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -0.1603,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.6682,
"delta": 0.1682,
"percent_delta": 0.0673,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.256,
"after": 0.2683,
"delta": 0.0123,
"percent_delta": 0.048,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.058,
"after": 0.0793,
"delta": 0.0213,
"percent_delta": 0.3672,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 0.7199,
"delta": 0.0799,
"percent_delta": 0.1248,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.1173,
"delta": 0.0013,
"percent_delta": 0.0112,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.273,
"after": 0.2889,
"delta": 0.0159,
"percent_delta": 0.0582,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.407,
"after": 0.4473,
"delta": 0.0403,
"percent_delta": 0.099,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.349,
"after": 0.38,
"delta": 0.031,
"percent_delta": 0.0888,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.4451,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 0.6547,
"delta": 0.0147,
"percent_delta": 0.023,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.6682,
"delta": 0.1682,
"percent_delta": 0.0673,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 18
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0186,
"predicted_3B": 0.0487,
"predicted_AB": 2.6682,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2637,
"predicted_BB": 0.0788,
"predicted_H": 0.7036,
"predicted_HBP": 0.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.114,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2848,
"predicted_R": 0.4303,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3655,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4353,
"predicted_SO": 0.6587
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0186,
"after": 0.0186,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0487,
"after": 0.0487,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.6682,
"after": 2.6682,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2683,
"after": 0.2637,
"delta": -0.0046,
"percent_delta": -0.0171,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0793,
"after": 0.0788,
"delta": -0.0005,
"percent_delta": -0.0063,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7199,
"after": 0.7036,
"delta": -0.0163,
"percent_delta": -0.0226,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.01,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1173,
"after": 0.114,
"delta": -0.0033,
"percent_delta": -0.0281,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2889,
"after": 0.2848,
"delta": -0.0041,
"percent_delta": -0.0142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4473,
"after": 0.4303,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -0.038,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.3655,
"delta": -0.0145,
"percent_delta": -0.0382,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4451,
"after": 0.4353,
"delta": -0.0098,
"percent_delta": -0.022,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6547,
"after": 0.6587,
"delta": 0.004,
"percent_delta": 0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4451,
"after": 0.4353,
"delta": -0.0098,
"percent_delta": -0.022,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.043",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0186,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0186,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0487,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0487,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
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"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.2848,
"delta": 0.0068,
"percent_delta": 0.0245,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.375,
"after": 0.4353,
"delta": 0.0603,
"percent_delta": 0.1608,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.375,
"after": 0.4353,
"delta": 0.0603,
"percent_delta": 0.1608,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.058,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.058,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.5,
"percent_delta": 0.6,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.256,
"after": 0.2637,
"delta": 0.0077,
"percent_delta": 0.0301,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.058,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.058,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.36,
"percent_delta": 0.5625,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.884,
"percent_delta": 7.6207,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.273,
"after": 0.2848,
"delta": 0.0118,
"percent_delta": 0.0432,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.407,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.593,
"percent_delta": 1.457,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.349,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.651,
"percent_delta": 1.8653,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.4353,
"delta": -0.0067,
"percent_delta": -0.0152,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.64,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 8,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.5,
"percent_delta": 0.6,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.64,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.058 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.256 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.058 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.640 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.273 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.407 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.349 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.640 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.019 | 0.019 |
| predicted_3B | 0.049 | -0.009 |
| predicted_AB | 2.668 | 0.168 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.268 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.079 | 0.021 |
| predicted_H | 0.720 | 0.080 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.117 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | 0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.447 | 0.040 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | 0.031 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.445 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.655 | 0.015 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.049 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.668 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.079 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.704 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.114 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.430 | -0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.365 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.435 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.659 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.043
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.137 | 0.137 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.229 | 0.229 |
| H | 0.696 | -0.304 |
| HR | 0.110 | 0.110 |
| RBI | 0.409 | 0.409 |
| SO | 1.013 | 0.013 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.137 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.229 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.696 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.110 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.409 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.013 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.049 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.332 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | -0.044 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.079 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.296 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.114 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.430 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.365 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.375 | -0.060 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.341 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.4615 | 0.4615 | 0.4615 | 0.4615 | 0.0000 | 0.1538 | 0.0000 | 0.2308 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 26.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.3846 | 0.3929 | 0.6154 | 0.3846 | 0.0769 | 0.2308 | 0.0385 | 0.1538 |
| season | 0.60 | 18 | - | 43.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 11.000 | 0.2558 | 0.2667 | 0.4419 | 0.2558 | 0.0465 | 0.1395 | 0.0233 | 0.2558 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0560 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0300 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0050 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2929 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1220 |
| predicted_H | 0.8800 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0100 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3207 |
| predicted_R | 0.5280 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4420 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4513 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6840 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0000 | 0.0560 | 0.0186 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0580 | 0.0300 | 0.0487 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 3.0050 | 2.6682 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2560 | 0.2929 | 0.2683 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.0580 | 0.1220 | 0.0793 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6400 | 0.8800 | 0.7199 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0100 | 0.0100 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1200 | 0.1173 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2730 | 0.3207 | 0.2889 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4070 | 0.5280 | 0.4473 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3490 | 0.4420 | 0.3800 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4420 | 0.4513 | 0.4451 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6400 | 0.6840 | 0.6547 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 30 |
| Season rows before report date | 30 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 18 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 806956 |
| playerID | 806956 |
| playerName | Ethan Salas |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 2.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.316 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.227 |
| sl_xba | 0.188 |
| sl_xslg | 0.316 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 23.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 25.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.214 | 0.000 | -0.214 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.190 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.046 | 5.000 | -0.046 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.262 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.292 | 0.200 | -0.292 | -0.200 |
| predicted_BB | 0.394 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.410 | 0.000 | -0.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.085 | 0.000 | -0.085 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.360 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.181 | 1.000 | -1.181 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.165 | 0.000 | -0.165 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.349 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.360 | 0.200 | -0.360 | -0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.612 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.636 | 0.000 | -0.636 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.620 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.551 | 0.000 | -0.551 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.495 | 0.000 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.477 | 0.200 | -0.477 | -0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 0.838 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.845 | 2.000 | 0.155 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8380 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1620, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.3600 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.3600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AVG: 0.2620 -> 0.2745 (boost 0.0125, better) | predicted_AB: 5.1900 -> 4.6366 (deboost -0.5534, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4955 -> 0.4547 (deboost -0.0408, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.8453 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1547, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.6366 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.6366, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.041 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6097 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3903, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5168 (boost 0.5168, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.1761 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8239, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3382 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3382, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3990 -> 0.4547 (boost 0.0557, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "665487",
"player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
"position": "RF",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 5.19,
"predicted_AVG": 0.262,
"predicted_BB": 0.394,
"predicted_H": 1.36,
"predicted_HR": 0.24,
"predicted_OBP": 0.349,
"predicted_R": 0.612,
"predicted_RBI": 0.62,
"predicted_SLG": 0.495,
"predicted_SO": 0.838
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
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{
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
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"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.2664,
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{
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},
{
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],
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},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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}
],
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.190 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.262 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.394 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.360 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.349 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.612 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.620 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.495 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.838 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | -0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.637 | -0.553 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | 0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.384 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 1.264 | -0.096 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.046 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.220 | -0.020 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.353 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.634 | 0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.563 | -0.057 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.495 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.840 | 0.002 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.637 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.382 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.235 | -0.029 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.046 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.214 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | -0.030 |
| predicted_R | 0.610 | -0.024 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.541 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.455 | -0.041 |
| predicted_SO | 0.845 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.041
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.176 | 0.176 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.338 | 0.338 |
| H | 0.954 | -0.046 |
| HR | 0.145 | 0.145 |
| RBI | 0.517 | 0.517 |
| SO | 1.073 | 0.073 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.824 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.338 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.046 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.483 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.073 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.200 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.637 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | -0.026 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.382 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.235 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.214 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | -0.017 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.390 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.541 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.399 | -0.056 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.155 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3333 | 0.4737 | 0.2632 | 0.0526 | 0.1053 | 0.1053 | 0.2105 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 13.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3953 | 0.6154 | 0.3333 | 0.0769 | 0.1282 | 0.0769 | 0.2308 |
| season | 0.60 | 160 | - | 638.000 | 184.000 | 32.000 | 3.000 | 26.000 | 83.000 | 98.000 | 63.000 | 134.000 | 0.2884 | 0.3562 | 0.4702 | 0.2884 | 0.0408 | 0.1301 | 0.0988 | 0.2100 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1990 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0110 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9270 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2906 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3720 |
| predicted_H | 1.1410 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0460 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1950 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3573 |
| predicted_R | 0.6620 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4900 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4962 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8430 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2000 | 0.1990 | 0.1996 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 | 0.0110 | 0.0155 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.1900 | 3.9270 | 4.6366 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2620 | 0.2906 | 0.2745 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3940 | 0.3720 | 0.3844 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.3600 | 1.1410 | 1.2640 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0460 | 0.0460 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2400 | 0.1950 | 0.2203 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3490 | 0.3573 | 0.3526 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6120 | 0.6620 | 0.6339 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6200 | 0.4900 | 0.5630 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4950 | 0.4962 | 0.4955 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8380 | 0.8430 | 0.8402 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 673 |
| Season rows before report date | 673 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 160 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 665487 |
| playerID | 665487 |
| playerName | Fernando Tatis Jr. |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.358 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.379 |
| sl_xba | 0.296 |
| sl_xslg | 0.5 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 53.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 5.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.163 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.170 | 0.000 | -0.170 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.031 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.036 | 0.000 | -0.036 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.220 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.002 | 5.000 | -0.002 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.265 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.263 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.277 | 0.000 | -0.277 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.200 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.059 | 0.000 | -0.059 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.176 | 0.000 | 0.824 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.314 | 0.000 | -0.064 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.544 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.579 | 0.000 | 0.421 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.660 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.605 | 0.000 | 1.395 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | 1.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.457 | 0.000 | 0.543 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.025 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.014 | 2.000 | 0.986 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.6600 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3400, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.2200 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.2200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AVG: 0.2290 -> 0.2524 (boost 0.0234, better) | predicted_AB: 5.2200 -> 4.6088 (deboost -0.6112, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3288 -> 0.2862 (deboost -0.0426, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | - | predicted_AB: 4.6088 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.6088, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.025 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5490 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4510, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5418 (boost 0.5418, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8782 (deboost -0.1218, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5418 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4582, better) | predicted_SO: 1.2804 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.2804, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3691 -> 0.3970 (boost 0.0279, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2290 -> 0.2433 (boost 0.0143, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3970 -> 0.3691 (deboost -0.0279, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "701538",
"player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
"position": "CF",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.031,
"predicted_AB": 5.22,
"predicted_AVG": 0.229,
"predicted_BB": 0.263,
"predicted_H": 1.2,
"predicted_HR": 0.16,
"predicted_OBP": 0.324,
"predicted_R": 0.544,
"predicted_RBI": 0.66,
"predicted_SLG": 0.401,
"predicted_SO": 1.025
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1433,
"predicted_3B": 0.0253,
"predicted_AB": 4.6088,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2524,
"predicted_BB": 0.2783,
"predicted_H": 1.1475,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.1324,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3288,
"predicted_R": 0.5707,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5957,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4002,
"predicted_SO": 1.0609
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.163,
"after": 0.1433,
"delta": -0.0197,
"percent_delta": -0.1209,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.031,
"after": 0.0253,
"delta": -0.0057,
"percent_delta": -0.1839,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.22,
"after": 4.6088,
"delta": -0.6112,
"percent_delta": -0.1171,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.2524,
"delta": 0.0234,
"percent_delta": 0.1022,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.263,
"after": 0.2783,
"delta": 0.0153,
"percent_delta": 0.0582,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2,
"after": 1.1475,
"delta": -0.0525,
"percent_delta": -0.0437,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.1324,
"delta": -0.0276,
"percent_delta": -0.1725,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3288,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.0148,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.544,
"after": 0.5707,
"delta": 0.0267,
"percent_delta": 0.0491,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 0.5957,
"delta": -0.0643,
"percent_delta": -0.0974,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.4002,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.025,
"after": 1.0609,
"delta": 0.0359,
"percent_delta": 0.035,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.2524,
"delta": 0.0234,
"percent_delta": 0.1022,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.22,
"after": 4.6088,
"delta": -0.6112,
"percent_delta": -0.1171,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 160
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1433,
"predicted_3B": 0.0253,
"predicted_AB": 4.6088,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2433,
"predicted_BB": 0.2766,
"predicted_H": 1.1215,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.1286,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2862,
"predicted_R": 0.549,
"predicted_RBI": 0.573,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3691,
"predicted_SO": 1.0674
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1433,
"after": 0.1433,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0253,
"after": 0.0253,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.6088,
"after": 4.6088,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2524,
"after": 0.2433,
"delta": -0.0091,
"percent_delta": -0.0361,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2783,
"after": 0.2766,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1475,
"after": 1.1215,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -0.0227,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.012,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1324,
"after": 0.1286,
"delta": -0.0038,
"percent_delta": -0.0287,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3288,
"after": 0.2862,
"delta": -0.0426,
"percent_delta": -0.1296,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5707,
"after": 0.549,
"delta": -0.0217,
"percent_delta": -0.038,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5957,
"after": 0.573,
"delta": -0.0227,
"percent_delta": -0.0381,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4002,
"after": 0.3691,
"delta": -0.0311,
"percent_delta": -0.0777,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0609,
"after": 1.0674,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.3288,
"after": 0.2862,
"delta": -0.0426,
"percent_delta": -0.1296,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.025",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1433,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1433,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0253,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0253,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.6088,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.6088,
"percent_delta": -0.1321,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2766,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2766,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1215,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1215,
"percent_delta": -0.1083,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1286,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1286,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.573,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.573,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0674,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0674,
"percent_delta": -0.0631,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.6088,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.6088,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.397,
"after": 0.3691,
"delta": -0.0279,
"percent_delta": -0.0702,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.163,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.163,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.031,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.031,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.22,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.22,
"percent_delta": -0.2337,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.2433,
"delta": 0.0143,
"percent_delta": 0.0624,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.263,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.263,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -0.1667,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.84,
"percent_delta": 5.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.2862,
"delta": -0.0378,
"percent_delta": -0.1167,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.544,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.456,
"percent_delta": 0.8382,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.34,
"percent_delta": 2.0303,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.3691,
"delta": -0.0319,
"percent_delta": -0.0796,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.025,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.975,
"percent_delta": 0.9512,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.34,
"percent_delta": 2.0303,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.22,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.22,
"percent_delta": -0.2337,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.163 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.031 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.220 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.263 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.200 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.544 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.660 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.025 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | -0.020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 4.609 | -0.611 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.252 | 0.023 |
| predicted_BB | 0.278 | 0.015 |
| predicted_H | 1.147 | -0.052 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.132 | -0.028 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.329 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.571 | 0.027 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.596 | -0.064 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.400 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.061 | 0.036 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.609 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | -0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.277 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.121 | -0.026 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.129 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.286 | -0.043 |
| predicted_R | 0.549 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.573 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.369 | -0.031 |
| predicted_SO | 1.067 | 0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.025
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.170 | 0.170 |
| 3B | 0.016 | 0.016 |
| BB | 0.264 | 0.264 |
| H | 0.878 | -0.122 |
| HR | 0.149 | 0.149 |
| RBI | 0.542 | 0.542 |
| SO | 1.280 | 0.280 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.170 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.264 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.122 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.149 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.458 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.280 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.143 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.025 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.609 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | -0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.277 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.121 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.129 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.284 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.451 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.573 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.397 | 0.028 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.067 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.3889 | 0.4500 | 0.3889 | 0.3889 | 0.0000 | 0.1667 | 0.1111 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 13.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3171 | 0.2895 | 0.2632 | 0.0000 | 0.0790 | 0.0790 | 0.3421 |
| season | 0.60 | 160 | - | 625.000 | 160.000 | 26.000 | 5.000 | 26.000 | 89.000 | 87.000 | 42.000 | 164.000 | 0.2560 | 0.3046 | 0.4384 | 0.2560 | 0.0416 | 0.1424 | 0.0672 | 0.2624 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1180 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0180 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8230 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2825 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2980 |
| predicted_H | 1.0800 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0970 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3349 |
| predicted_R | 0.6050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5130 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3991 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1070 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1630 | 0.1180 | 0.1433 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0310 | 0.0180 | 0.0253 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.2200 | 3.8230 | 4.6088 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2290 | 0.2825 | 0.2524 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2630 | 0.2980 | 0.2783 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2000 | 1.0800 | 1.1475 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0120 | 0.0120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.0970 | 0.1324 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3240 | 0.3349 | 0.3288 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5440 | 0.6050 | 0.5707 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6600 | 0.5130 | 0.5957 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4010 | 0.3991 | 0.4002 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0250 | 1.1070 | 1.0609 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 643 |
| Season rows before report date | 643 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 160 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 701538 |
| playerID | 701538 |
| playerName | Jackson Merrill |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.32 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.347 |
| sl_xba | 0.27 |
| sl_xslg | 0.491 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.122 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.126 | 0.000 | -0.126 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.404 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.507 | 3.000 | -0.507 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.236 | 0.333 | -0.236 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.500 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.517 | 1.000 | -0.517 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.910 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.828 | 1.000 | -0.828 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 | -0.090 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.399 | 0.000 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.335 | 0.500 | -0.335 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.455 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.456 | 1.000 | -0.456 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.425 | 0.000 | -0.425 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.482 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.354 | 0.333 | -0.354 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.705 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.718 | 0.000 | 1.282 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7050 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2950, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9100 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.4550 -> 0.5545 (boost 0.0995, better) | predicted_AB: 3.4040 -> 3.3529 (deboost -0.0511, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5052 -> 0.4597 (deboost -0.0455, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.6667 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3333, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.5117 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5117, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.043 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5334 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4666, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3897 (boost 0.3897, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7079 (deboost -0.2921, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.3897 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6103, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3798 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3798, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3300 -> 0.4597 (boost 0.1297, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "593428",
"player_name": "Xander Bogaerts",
"position": "SS",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.122,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 3.404,
"predicted_AVG": 0.277,
"predicted_BB": 0.5,
"predicted_H": 0.91,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.399,
"predicted_R": 0.455,
"predicted_RBI": 0.43,
"predicted_SLG": 0.482,
"predicted_SO": 0.705
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1373,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 3.3529,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2965,
"predicted_BB": 0.5148,
"predicted_H": 0.9746,
"predicted_HBP": 0.015,
"predicted_HR": 0.1514,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4061,
"predicted_R": 0.5545,
"predicted_RBI": 0.423,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5052,
"predicted_SO": 0.6627
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.122,
"after": 0.1373,
"delta": 0.0153,
"percent_delta": 0.1254,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.404,
"after": 3.3529,
"delta": -0.0511,
"percent_delta": -0.015,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.2965,
"delta": 0.0195,
"percent_delta": 0.0704,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.5148,
"delta": 0.0148,
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3789,
"after": 0.297,
"delta": -0.0819,
"percent_delta": -0.2162,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4597,
"after": 0.33,
"delta": -0.1297,
"percent_delta": -0.2821,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"after": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2841,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3789,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4597,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.2841,
"delta": 0.0751,
"percent_delta": 0.3592,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.297,
"after": 0.3789,
"delta": 0.0819,
"percent_delta": 0.2756,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.4597,
"delta": 0.1297,
"percent_delta": 0.393,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.4597,
"delta": 0.1297,
"percent_delta": 0.393,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.122,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.122,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.404,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.404,
"percent_delta": -0.1187,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2841,
"delta": 0.0071,
"percent_delta": 0.0256,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.91,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.91,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.399,
"after": 0.3789,
"delta": -0.0201,
"percent_delta": -0.0504,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.455,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.455,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.43,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.482,
"after": 0.4597,
"delta": -0.0223,
"percent_delta": -0.0463,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.705,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.295,
"percent_delta": 1.8369,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.295,
"percent_delta": 1.8369,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.91,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.91,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.122 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.404 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.910 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.399 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.455 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.482 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.705 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.137 | 0.015 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.353 | -0.051 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.296 | 0.019 |
| predicted_BB | 0.515 | 0.015 |
| predicted_H | 0.975 | 0.065 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.151 | 0.021 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.406 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.554 | 0.099 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.423 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.505 | 0.023 |
| predicted_SO | 0.663 | -0.042 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.137 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.353 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.284 | -0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.512 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.953 | -0.022 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.147 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.379 | -0.027 |
| predicted_R | 0.533 | -0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.407 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.460 | -0.045 |
| predicted_SO | 0.667 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.043
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.130 | 0.130 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.390 | 0.390 |
| H | 0.708 | -0.292 |
| HR | 0.088 | 0.088 |
| RBI | 0.380 | 0.380 |
| SO | 0.869 | -0.131 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.130 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.610 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.292 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.088 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.380 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.131 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.137 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.353 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | -0.075 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.512 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.047 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.297 | -0.082 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.467 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.407 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | -0.130 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.333 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.5333 | 0.6111 | 1.0000 | 0.5333 | 0.1333 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.1333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 12.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 0.3871 | 0.4865 | 0.6452 | 0.3871 | 0.0645 | 0.0968 | 0.1935 | 0.1613 |
| season | 0.60 | 156 | - | 531.000 | 125.000 | 19.000 | 1.000 | 14.000 | 59.000 | 71.000 | 78.000 | 110.000 | 0.2354 | 0.3350 | 0.3540 | 0.2354 | 0.0264 | 0.1111 | 0.1469 | 0.2072 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1570 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2870 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3217 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5340 |
| predicted_H | 1.0580 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0150 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1790 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4152 |
| predicted_R | 0.6830 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4140 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5352 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6080 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1220 | 0.1570 | 0.1373 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4040 | 3.2870 | 3.3529 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2770 | 0.3217 | 0.2965 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5000 | 0.5340 | 0.5148 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9100 | 1.0580 | 0.9746 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0150 | 0.0150 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.1790 | 0.1514 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3990 | 0.4152 | 0.4061 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4550 | 0.6830 | 0.5545 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4300 | 0.4140 | 0.4230 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4820 | 0.5352 | 0.5052 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7050 | 0.6080 | 0.6627 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 586 |
| Season rows before report date | 586 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 156 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 593428 |
| playerID | 593428 |
| playerName | Xander Bogaerts |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.306 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.325 |
| sl_xba | 0.248 |
| sl_xslg | 0.376 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 6.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.187 | 0.000 | -0.187 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.490 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.289 | 3.000 | -0.289 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.263 | 0.333 | -0.263 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.417 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.430 | 1.000 | -0.430 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.850 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.864 | 1.000 | -0.864 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 | -0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.357 | 0.500 | -0.357 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.347 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.353 | 0.000 | -0.353 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.477 | 1.000 | -0.477 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.370 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.428 | 0.333 | -0.428 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.736 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.800 | 0.000 | -0.800 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AB: 3.4900 -> 3.4213 (deboost -0.0687, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3359 -> 0.3233 (deboost -0.0126, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.4213 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5787, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4287 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4287, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.027 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3475 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3475, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4634 (boost 0.4634, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7773 (deboost -0.2227, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.3634 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6366, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4634 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4634, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3000 -> 0.3233 (boost 0.0233, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669134",
"player_name": "Luis Campusano",
"position": "C",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.167,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.49,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.417,
"predicted_H": 0.85,
"predicted_HR": 0.1,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 0.347,
"predicted_RBI": 0.47,
"predicted_SLG": 0.37,
"predicted_SO": 0.736
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1444,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.4213,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2487,
"predicted_BB": 0.4099,
"predicted_H": 0.8496,
"predicted_HBP": 0.027,
"predicted_HR": 0.0971,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3359,
"predicted_R": 0.3613,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4457,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3715,
"predicted_SO": 0.6941
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.167,
"after": 0.1444,
"delta": -0.0226,
"percent_delta": -0.1353,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.49,
"after": 3.4213,
"delta": -0.0687,
"percent_delta": -0.0197,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2487,
"delta": 0.0047,
"percent_delta": 0.0193,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.417,
"after": 0.4099,
"delta": -0.0071,
"percent_delta": -0.017,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 0.8496,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0971,
"delta": -0.0029,
"percent_delta": -0.029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3359,
"delta": 0.0029,
"percent_delta": 0.0087,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.347,
"after": 0.3613,
"delta": 0.0143,
"percent_delta": 0.0412,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.47,
"after": 0.4457,
"delta": -0.0243,
"percent_delta": -0.0517,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.3715,
"delta": 0.0015,
"percent_delta": 0.0041,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.736,
"after": 0.6941,
"delta": -0.0419,
"percent_delta": -0.0569,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 3.4213,
"delta": -0.0687,
"percent_delta": -0.0197,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 72
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1444,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.4213,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2427,
"predicted_BB": 0.4074,
"predicted_H": 0.8303,
"predicted_HBP": 0.027,
"predicted_HR": 0.0943,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3233,
"predicted_R": 0.3475,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4287,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3679,
"predicted_SO": 0.6983
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1444,
"after": 0.1444,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4213,
"after": 3.4213,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2487,
"after": 0.2427,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.0241,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4099,
"after": 0.4074,
"delta": -0.0025,
"percent_delta": -0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8496,
"after": 0.8303,
"delta": -0.0193,
"percent_delta": -0.0227,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.027,
"after": 0.027,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0971,
"after": 0.0943,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.0288,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3359,
"after": 0.3233,
"delta": -0.0126,
"percent_delta": -0.0375,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3613,
"after": 0.3475,
"delta": -0.0138,
"percent_delta": -0.0382,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4457,
"after": 0.4287,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -0.0381,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3715,
"after": 0.3679,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0097,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6941,
"after": 0.6983,
"delta": 0.0042,
"percent_delta": 0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.3359,
"after": 0.3233,
"delta": -0.0126,
"percent_delta": -0.0375,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.027",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1444,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1444,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4213,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5787,
"percent_delta": 0.1691,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.4074,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4074,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8303,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1697,
"percent_delta": 0.2044,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.027,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.027,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0943,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0943,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4287,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4287,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6983,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3017,
"percent_delta": 0.432,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.4213,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5787,
"percent_delta": 0.1691,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.4287,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4287,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3233,
"delta": -0.0097,
"percent_delta": -0.0291,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.347,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.347,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.47,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.47,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.3679,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.0057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.736,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.736,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.85,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.490 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.417 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.850 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.347 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.370 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.736 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.144 | -0.023 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.421 | -0.069 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.410 | -0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.850 | -0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.027 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.097 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.361 | 0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.446 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.371 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.694 | -0.042 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.144 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.421 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.407 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.830 | -0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.094 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.323 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.347 | -0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.429 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.368 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.698 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.027
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.154 | 0.154 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.363 | 0.363 |
| H | 0.777 | -0.223 |
| HR | 0.113 | 0.113 |
| RBI | 0.463 | 0.463 |
| SO | 1.044 | 0.044 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.154 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.637 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.223 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.113 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.463 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.044 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.144 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.579 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.222 | -0.021 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.407 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.094 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.300 | -0.023 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.347 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.429 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.367 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.302 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.2941 | 0.3684 | 0.2941 | 0.2941 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.1177 | 0.0588 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 0.1892 | 0.2683 | 0.2703 | 0.1892 | 0.0270 | 0.0811 | 0.1081 | 0.1622 |
| season | 0.60 | 72 | - | 222.000 | 59.000 | 12.000 | 0.000 | 8.000 | 31.000 | 25.000 | 30.000 | 53.000 | 0.2658 | 0.3608 | 0.4279 | 0.2658 | 0.0360 | 0.1396 | 0.1351 | 0.2387 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1130 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3260 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2553 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4000 |
| predicted_H | 0.8490 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0270 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0930 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3398 |
| predicted_R | 0.3810 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4120 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3736 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6360 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1670 | 0.1130 | 0.1444 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4900 | 3.3260 | 3.4213 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2553 | 0.2487 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4170 | 0.4000 | 0.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8500 | 0.8490 | 0.8496 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0270 | 0.0270 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1000 | 0.0930 | 0.0971 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3330 | 0.3398 | 0.3359 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3470 | 0.3810 | 0.3613 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4700 | 0.4120 | 0.4457 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3700 | 0.3736 | 0.3715 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7360 | 0.6360 | 0.6941 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 235 |
| Season rows before report date | 235 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 72 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669134 |
| playerID | 669134 |
| playerName | Luis Campusano |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.353 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.327 |
| sl_xba | 0.239 |
| sl_xslg | 0.391 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.117 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.124 | 0.000 | -0.124 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | -0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.480 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.680 | 3.000 | -0.680 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.232 | 0.000 | -0.232 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.342 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.370 | 0.000 | -0.370 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.730 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.854 | 0.000 | -0.854 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.057 | 0.000 | -0.057 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.311 | 0.000 | -0.311 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.414 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.457 | 0.000 | -0.457 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.620 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.357 | 1.000 | -0.357 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.082 | 0.000 | -0.082 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.325 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.319 | 0.000 | -0.319 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.901 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.926 | 2.000 | 0.074 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.9010 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0990, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7300 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7300, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3250 -> 0.3320 (boost 0.0070, better) | predicted_AB: 3.4800 -> 3.4270 (deboost -0.0530, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3126 -> 0.2789 (deboost -0.0337, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_RBI: 0.5947 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4053, better) | predicted_AB: 3.4270 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.4270, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.022 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3812 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3812, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3016 (boost 0.3016, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.3762 (deboost -0.6238, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.6958 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6958, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "630105",
"player_name": "Jake Cronenworth",
"position": "2B",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.117,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 3.48,
"predicted_AVG": 0.209,
"predicted_BB": 0.342,
"predicted_H": 0.73,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.309,
"predicted_R": 0.414,
"predicted_RBI": 0.62,
"predicted_SLG": 0.325,
"predicted_SO": 0.901
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1334,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.427,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2135,
"predicted_BB": 0.3342,
"predicted_H": 0.733,
"predicted_HBP": 0.164,
"predicted_HR": 0.0804,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3126,
"predicted_R": 0.3963,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6183,
"predicted_SLG": 0.332,
"predicted_SO": 0.9273
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.117,
"after": 0.1334,
"delta": 0.0164,
"percent_delta": 0.1402,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.48,
"after": 3.427,
"delta": -0.053,
"percent_delta": -0.0152,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.2135,
"delta": 0.0045,
"percent_delta": 0.0215,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.342,
"after": 0.3342,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.0228,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.73,
"after": 0.733,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0041,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0804,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.309,
"after": 0.3126,
"delta": 0.0036,
"percent_delta": 0.0117,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.414,
"after": 0.3963,
"delta": -0.0177,
"percent_delta": -0.0428,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.62,
"after": 0.6183,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0027,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.332,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0215,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.901,
"after": 0.9273,
"delta": 0.0263,
"percent_delta": 0.0292,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.332,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0215,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.209,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2789,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3208,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.209,
"delta": -0.001,
"percent_delta": -0.0046,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.281,
"after": 0.2789,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.0074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3208,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.0128,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.117,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.117,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.48,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.48,
"percent_delta": -0.1379,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.209,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.342,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.342,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.73,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.73,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.309,
"after": 0.2789,
"delta": -0.0301,
"percent_delta": -0.0974,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.414,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.414,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.62,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.62,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3208,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.0129,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.901,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.099,
"percent_delta": 0.1099,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.901,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.099,
"percent_delta": 0.1099,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.73,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.73,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.117 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.480 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.342 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.730 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.414 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.620 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.325 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.901 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.133 | 0.016 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.427 | -0.053 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.213 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.334 | -0.008 |
| predicted_H | 0.733 | 0.003 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.164 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.396 | -0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.618 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.332 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.927 | 0.026 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.133 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.427 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.332 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.716 | -0.017 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.164 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.078 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.279 | -0.034 |
| predicted_R | 0.381 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.595 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.321 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.933 | 0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.022
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.138 | 0.138 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.302 | 0.302 |
| H | 0.696 | -0.304 |
| HR | 0.076 | 0.076 |
| RBI | 0.376 | -0.624 |
| SO | 1.052 | 0.052 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.138 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.302 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.696 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.076 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.376 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.052 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.133 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.427 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.210 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.332 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.284 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.078 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.381 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.405 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.325 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.067 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.2000 | 0.3684 | 0.2667 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.2667 | 0.1333 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 0.2188 | 0.3056 | 0.4688 | 0.2188 | 0.0625 | 0.3438 | 0.0625 | 0.3438 |
| season | 0.60 | 111 | - | 386.000 | 86.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 42.000 | 46.000 | 38.000 | 100.000 | 0.2228 | 0.3056 | 0.3161 | 0.2228 | 0.0181 | 0.1088 | 0.0984 | 0.2591 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3570 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2194 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3240 |
| predicted_H | 0.7370 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1640 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0810 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3173 |
| predicted_R | 0.3730 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6160 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3413 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9620 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1170 | 0.1550 | 0.1334 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4800 | 3.3570 | 3.4270 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2090 | 0.2194 | 0.2135 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3420 | 0.3240 | 0.3342 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7300 | 0.7370 | 0.7330 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1640 | 0.1640 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0810 | 0.0804 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3090 | 0.3173 | 0.3126 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4140 | 0.3730 | 0.3963 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6200 | 0.6160 | 0.6183 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3250 | 0.3413 | 0.3320 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9010 | 0.9620 | 0.9273 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 403 |
| Season rows before report date | 403 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 111 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 630105 |
| playerID | 630105 |
| playerName | Jake Cronenworth |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.287 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.275 |
| sl_xba | 0.213 |
| sl_xslg | 0.308 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 2.212 | 3.000 | -2.212 | -3.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_H | 4.515 | 1.000 | 1.485 | 5.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.733 | 7.000 | 0.267 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_SO | 5.061 | 8.000 | -0.061 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SO: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "650633",
"player_name": "Michael King",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | - |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 30.000 | 10.000 | 23.000 | 10.000 | 26.000 | 2.000 | 3.0000 | 1.1000 | 0.3333 | 0.7667 | 0.3333 | 0.8667 | 0.0667 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 61.200 | 16.000 | 47.000 | 19.000 | 53.000 | 6.000 | 2.3351 | 1.0703 | 0.2595 | 0.7622 | 0.3081 | 0.8595 | 0.0973 |
| season | 0.20 | 33 | 192.000 | 66.000 | 149.000 | 73.000 | 167.000 | 20.000 | 3.0938 | 1.1562 | 0.3438 | 0.7760 | 0.3802 | 0.8698 | 0.1042 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0200 |
| predicted_ER | 1.9980 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.0261 |
| predicted_H | 4.7270 |
| predicted_HR | 0.5540 |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 5.1920 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1354 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 2.0200 | 1.2007 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 1.9980 | 1.9988 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.0261 | 3.0261 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 6.0000 | 4.7270 | 5.2433 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.5540 | 0.7349 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 | 6.0000 | 6.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 4.0000 | 5.1920 | 4.7085 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1354 | 1.1354 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 33 |
| Season rows before report date | 33 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 33 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 6.0 |
| H | 6 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 5 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 24 |
| Pitches | 95 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 3 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 26 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 4 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 7 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 7.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 97 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 8 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 62 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260929_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 650633 |
| playerID | 650633 |
| playerName | Michael King |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.295 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.322 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.924543175 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.05490175 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.388 | 0.000 | -0.388 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.194 | 0.000 | -0.194 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.567 | 1.000 | -0.567 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.200 | 1.200 | 1.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.007 | 1.000 | 0.193 | 0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.955 | 2.000 | -0.955 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.2000 (boost 0.2000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.2000 (boost 0.2000, better) | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "695243",
"player_name": "Mason Miller",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.2,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.2,
"delta": 0.2,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.2,
"delta": 0.2,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.2,
"delta": 0.2,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.2,
"delta": 0.2,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 7.2000 | 1.6000 | 0.8000 | 1.0000 | 0.6000 | 1.6000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.200 | 5.000 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 20.000 | 1.000 | 4.2188 | 1.3125 | 0.4688 | 0.8438 | 0.4688 | 1.8750 | 0.0938 |
| season | 0.20 | 67 | 71.000 | 13.000 | 38.000 | 26.000 | 131.000 | 3.000 | 1.6479 | 0.9014 | 0.1831 | 0.5352 | 0.3662 | 1.8451 | 0.0423 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4750 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5480 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.9352 |
| predicted_H | 0.8860 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0680 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.5380 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3607 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4750 | 0.2577 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.5480 | 0.2973 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.9352 | 4.9352 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.8860 | 0.4806 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0680 | 0.0369 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 1.5380 | 1.7494 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3607 | 1.3607 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 67 |
| Season rows before report date | 67 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 67 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.2 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 21 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 19 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 13 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 695243 |
| playerID | 695243 |
| playerName | Mason Miller |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 47.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.208 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.201 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 28.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 45.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.813395439 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.786414386 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.359 | 0.000 | -0.359 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.359 | 1.000 | 2.641 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_H | 0.885 | 3.000 | 3.115 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.028 | 2.000 | -0.928 | -1.900 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.397 | 2.000 | -0.397 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 0.3333 -> 0.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 0.3333 -> 0.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "670970",
"player_name": "Adrian Morejon",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.3333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 7.100 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 2.4545 | 1.0909 | 0.2727 | 0.8182 | 0.2727 | 0.8182 | 0.1364 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 11.100 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 2.3824 | 1.0588 | 0.2647 | 0.7059 | 0.3529 | 1.1471 | 0.0882 |
| season | 0.20 | 78 | 90.000 | 28.000 | 69.000 | 28.000 | 109.000 | 5.000 | 2.8000 | 1.0778 | 0.3111 | 0.7667 | 0.3111 | 1.2111 | 0.0556 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3160 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3200 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.9466 |
| predicted_H | 0.7950 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1100 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9720 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1379 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3160 | 0.1771 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 0.3200 | 1.4983 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.9466 | 2.9466 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 4.0000 | 0.7950 | 2.2041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1100 | 0.0616 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 | 1.0000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.9720 | 0.9843 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1379 | 1.1379 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 78 |
| Season rows before report date | 78 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 78 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.1 |
| H | 4 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 9 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.25 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 2.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 31 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 20 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670970 |
| playerID | 670970 |
| playerName | Adrian Morejon |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.244 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.237 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 34.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.331806132 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.323366588 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Logan Henderson |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6816 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0895 |
| Avg Velo | 88.2657 |
| Avg Spin | 2417.7994 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 6 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 8 |
| Season ERA | 2.4712 |
| Season WHIP | 0.8441 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.4630 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.8000 |
| Last Start IP | 5 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358,
"runs_scored": 832.0,
"runs_allowed": 618.0,
"run_differential": 214.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
"offense_index": 1.1433,
"defense_index": 1.1775,
"current_streak": "W5",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
"run_differential": 14.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3822
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9922,
"defense_index": 1.0686,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.1938,
"offense_edge": 0.1433,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0078,
"defense_strength": 0.1775,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0686,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0134,
"run_prevention": 0.9713,
"strikeout": 1.0064
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "701656",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "701656",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 348.0,
"k_percent": 29.6,
"bb_percent": 5.1,
"woba": 0.252,
"xwoba": 0.257,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.2333,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8148,
"whiff_percent": 26.5,
"swing_percent": 53.2
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9063,
"command_and_miss": 0.7521,
"regression_edge": -0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.5714,
"barrel_edge": -0.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
"whiff_edge": 0.1857,
"bb_edge": 1.025,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0895
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "701656",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 95,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.2657231915627,
"release_spin_rate": 2417.7993644891867,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.2657231915627,
"release_spin_rate": 2417.7993644891867,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.2657,
"release_spin_rate": 2417.7994,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0895,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.6394,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
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},
"adjusted_fields": {
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}
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}{
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"H": 0,
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"SO": 0,
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"OPS": 0,
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},
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"HR9": 1.35,
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},
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}{
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"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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"primary_pitch": {
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"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"season": {
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"totals": {
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}
},
"blend_segments": {},
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}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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},
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Aaron Ashby |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.7133 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.1497 |
| Avg Velo | 92.5376 |
| Avg Spin | 2237.9882 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.0659 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2857 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.1820 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.5330 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358,
"runs_scored": 832.0,
"runs_allowed": 618.0,
"run_differential": 214.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
"offense_index": 1.1433,
"defense_index": 1.1775,
"current_streak": "W5",
"recent": {
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"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
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"avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
"run_differential": 14.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3822
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9922,
"defense_index": 1.0686,
"current_streak": "W2",
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"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
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},
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},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.1433,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0078,
"defense_strength": 0.1775,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0686,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0134,
"run_prevention": 0.9713,
"strikeout": 1.0064
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "676879",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "676879",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 30.3,
"bb_percent": 10.7,
"woba": 0.287,
"xwoba": 0.268,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.2,
"avg_best_speed": 76.2048,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.4472,
"whiff_percent": 32.1,
"swing_percent": 40.5
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 0.7971,
"regression_edge": 0.5429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2571,
"barrel_edge": 0.5111,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.3286,
"whiff_edge": 0.9857,
"bb_edge": -0.375,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1497
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "676879",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 26,
"primary_pitch": {
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},
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
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"sample_weight": 1.0,
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"strikeout_factor": 1.0863,
"walk_factor": 1.03,
"homer_factor": 0.9345,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.019,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "676879",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.9394,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 0.9394,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
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},
"predicted_HR": {
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},
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}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 4,
"H": 10,
"BB": 3,
"SO": 10,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 2.769230769230769,
"WHIP": 1.0,
"K9": 6.923076923076923,
"HR9": 1.3846153846153846,
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"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-03T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "676879",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 26,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 26,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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},
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
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},
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},
"shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7896,
"prior_weight": 0.2104
},
"role": "pitcher",
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"player_id": "676879",
"report_date": "20261004",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 76,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"H": 2.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.4,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.3913,
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"H_per_IP": 0.26087,
"BB_per_IP": 0.13043,
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}
},
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"SO": 10.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 51.0,
"Pitches": 216.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 1.0,
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"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 5.1,
"Pitches": 21.6
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.0,
"ER_per_IP": 0.30769,
"H_per_IP": 0.76923,
"BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
"SO_per_IP": 0.76923,
"HR_per_IP": 0.15385
}
},
"season": {
"games": 76,
"totals": {
"IP": 91.0,
"ER": 31.0,
"R": 36.0,
"H": 76.0,
"BB": 41.0,
"SO": 117.0,
"HR": 8.0,
"BF": 388.0,
"Pitches": 1605.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.4079,
"R": 0.4737,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.5395,
"SO": 1.5395,
"HR": 0.1053,
"BF": 5.1053,
"Pitches": 21.1184
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.0659,
"WHIP": 1.2857,
"ER_per_IP": 0.34066,
"H_per_IP": 0.83516,
"BB_per_IP": 0.45055,
"SO_per_IP": 1.28571,
"HR_per_IP": 0.08791
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.469,
"predicted_H": 0.89,
"predicted_BB": 0.361,
"predicted_SO": 1.23,
"predicted_HR": 0.185,
"predicted_ERA": 3.0537,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.9054
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4389,
"form_weight": 0.5611,
"form_reliability": 0.7896,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 18.766,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7896,
"prior_weight": 0.2104
},
"applied_metrics": {
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"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.1,
"final": 1.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.469,
"final": 0.2632,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.89,
"final": 1.3772,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"form": 0.361,
"final": 0.2026,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"form": 1.23,
"final": 1.1291,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.185,
"final": 0.1038,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.0537,
"final": 3.0537,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.9054,
"final": 0.9054,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Abner Uribe |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6573 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2700 |
| Avg Velo | 94.6849 |
| Avg Spin | 2398.7948 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 1.9609 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0559 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9620 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358,
"runs_scored": 832.0,
"runs_allowed": 618.0,
"run_differential": 214.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
"offense_index": 1.1433,
"defense_index": 1.1775,
"current_streak": "W5",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
"run_differential": 14.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3822
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9922,
"defense_index": 1.0686,
"current_streak": "W2",
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"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.1433,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0078,
"defense_strength": 0.1775,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0686,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0134,
"run_prevention": 0.9713,
"strikeout": 1.0064
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "682842",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "682842",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 213.0,
"k_percent": 26.5,
"bb_percent": 8.1,
"woba": 0.239,
"xwoba": 0.26,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.9,
"avg_best_speed": 76.7219,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4788,
"whiff_percent": 26.8,
"swing_percent": 43.0
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.2521,
"command_and_miss": 0.4179,
"regression_edge": -0.6,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4857,
"barrel_edge": 1.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4286,
"whiff_edge": 0.2286,
"bb_edge": 0.275,
"pitch_design_score": 0.27
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "682842",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 6,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 6,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.68489223992312,
"release_spin_rate": 2398.794798347504,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 6,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"release_spin_rate": 2398.794798347504,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2398.7948,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.27,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.9283,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.6573,
"sample_weight": 0.852,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9441,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0292,
"walk_factor": 0.9813,
"homer_factor": 0.8687,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.021,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "682842",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9524,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9524,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9841,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.8881,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0249,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.0,
"ER": 2,
"H": 12,
"BB": 1,
"SO": 10,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 2.0,
"WHIP": 1.4444444444444444,
"K9": 10.0,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-03T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "682842",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 6,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 6,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.68489223992312,
"release_spin_rate": 2398.794798347504,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 6,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.68489223992312,
"release_spin_rate": 2398.794798347504,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2398.7948,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.27,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.9283,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 12.305,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7111,
"prior_weight": 0.2889
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "682842",
"report_date": "20261004",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 62,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 6.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 1.2,
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"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.0,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.3846,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 1.38462,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 1.38462,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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"BB": 1.0,
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},
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},
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"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 13.0,
"R": 13.0,
"H": 44.0,
"BB": 19.0,
"SO": 62.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 238.0,
"Pitches": 934.0
},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.2097,
"H": 0.7097,
"BB": 0.3065,
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},
"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 0.73743,
"BB_per_IP": 0.31844,
"SO_per_IP": 1.03911,
"HR_per_IP": 0.05028
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_SO": 1.137,
"predicted_HR": 0.05,
"predicted_ERA": 2.1086,
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}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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"model_weight": 0.4721,
"form_weight": 0.5279,
"form_reliability": 0.7111,
"adaptive_parameters": {
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},
"form_shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
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},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
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"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"final": 0.1235,
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},
"predicted_H": {
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"final": 0.6145,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"form": 1.137,
"final": 0.6003,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.05,
"final": 0.0264,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.1086,
"final": 2.1086,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.3467,
"final": 1.3467,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Trevor Megill |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6168 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2613 |
| Avg Velo | 94.5299 |
| Avg Spin | 2505.9405 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 2 |
| Season WHIP | 0.8571 |
| Role Avg IP | 1 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.0670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 103,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.6358,
"runs_scored": 832.0,
"runs_allowed": 618.0,
"run_differential": 214.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
"offense_index": 1.1433,
"defense_index": 1.1775,
"current_streak": "W5",
"recent": {
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"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
"run_differential": 14.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.3822
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9922,
"defense_index": 1.0686,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
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"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.1433,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0078,
"defense_strength": 0.1775,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0686,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0134,
"run_prevention": 0.9713,
"strikeout": 1.0064
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "656730",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656730",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 216.0,
"k_percent": 28.5,
"bb_percent": 6.2,
"woba": 0.208,
"xwoba": 0.252,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.0,
"avg_best_speed": 81.2085,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.3067,
"whiff_percent": 30.5,
"swing_percent": 54.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.0782,
"command_and_miss": 0.8264,
"regression_edge": -1.2571,
"xwoba_edge": 1.7143,
"barrel_edge": 0.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5857,
"whiff_edge": 0.7571,
"bb_edge": 0.75,
"pitch_design_score": 0.2613
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656730",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 8,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 8,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.52994912427022,
"release_spin_rate": 2505.9404761978085,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 8,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.52994912427022,
"release_spin_rate": 2505.9404761978085,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 94.5299,
"release_spin_rate": 2505.9405,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.2613,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.8663,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.6168,
"sample_weight": 0.864,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9476,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0578,
"walk_factor": 0.9482,
"homer_factor": 0.9635,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.044,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "656730",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9547,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9547,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9552,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9685,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0499,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 5,
"H": 10,
"BB": 1,
"SO": 12,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 4.655172413793104,
"WHIP": 1.1379310344827587,
"K9": 11.172413793103448,
"HR9": 0.9310344827586208,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-10-03T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656730",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 8,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 8,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.52994912427022,
"release_spin_rate": 2505.9404761978085,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 8,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.52994912427022,
"release_spin_rate": 2505.9404761978085,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 94.5299,
"release_spin_rate": 2505.9405,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.2613,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.8663,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 12.992,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7221,
"prior_weight": 0.2779
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "656730",
"report_date": "20261004",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 63,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 20.0,
"Pitches": 66.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.0,
"Pitches": 13.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.375,
"WHIP": 0.75,
"ER_per_IP": 0.375,
"H_per_IP": 0.75,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 1.125,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 10.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 12.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 40.0,
"Pitches": 146.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.5,
"R": 0.5,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.1,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 4.0,
"Pitches": 14.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.6552,
"WHIP": 1.1379,
"ER_per_IP": 0.51724,
"H_per_IP": 1.03448,
"BB_per_IP": 0.10345,
"SO_per_IP": 1.24138,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10345
}
},
"season": {
"games": 63,
"totals": {
"IP": 63.0,
"ER": 14.0,
"R": 16.0,
"H": 39.0,
"BB": 15.0,
"SO": 71.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 242.0,
"Pitches": 882.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2222,
"R": 0.254,
"H": 0.619,
"BB": 0.2381,
"SO": 1.127,
"HR": 0.0159,
"BF": 3.8413,
"Pitches": 14.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.0,
"WHIP": 0.8571,
"ER_per_IP": 0.22222,
"H_per_IP": 0.61905,
"BB_per_IP": 0.2381,
"SO_per_IP": 1.12698,
"HR_per_IP": 0.01587
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.427,
"predicted_H": 0.868,
"predicted_BB": 0.166,
"predicted_SO": 1.101,
"predicted_HR": 0.069,
"predicted_ERA": 3.8433,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.034
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4674,
"form_weight": 0.5326,
"form_reliability": 0.7221,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 12.992,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7221,
"prior_weight": 0.2779
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.427,
"final": 0.6948,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.868,
"final": 0.9297,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.166,
"final": 0.0884,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.101,
"final": 1.5212,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.069,
"final": 0.5042,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.8433,
"final": 3.8433,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.034,
"final": 1.034,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.250 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.261 | 0.000 | -0.261 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.320 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.960 | 3.000 | 0.040 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.277 | 0.000 | -0.277 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.588 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.589 | 1.000 | -0.589 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.037 | 0.000 | -0.037 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.090 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.098 | 0.000 | -1.098 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.143 | 0.000 | -0.143 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.368 | 0.000 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.371 | 0.250 | -0.371 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.689 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.715 | 0.000 | -0.715 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.800 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.736 | 0.000 | -0.736 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.130 | 1.000 | -0.130 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.471 | 0.000 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.465 | 0.000 | -0.465 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.122 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.081 | 1.000 | -1.081 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AVG: 0.2510 -> 0.2687 (boost 0.0177, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.1220 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1220, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2510 -> 0.2642 (boost 0.0132, better) | predicted_AB: 4.3200 -> 4.1542 (deboost -0.1658, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4766 -> 0.4553 (deboost -0.0213, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.5492 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4508, better) | predicted_2B: 0.2649 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2649, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.037 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.273) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6914 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3086, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.6053 (boost 0.6053, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5981 (deboost -0.4019, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.1807 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8193, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1170 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1170, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3860 -> 0.4553 (boost 0.0693, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "668930",
"player_name": "Brice Turang",
"position": "2B",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.25,
"predicted_3B": 0.02,
"predicted_AB": 4.32,
"predicted_AVG": 0.251,
"predicted_BB": 0.588,
"predicted_H": 1.09,
"predicted_HR": 0.15,
"predicted_OBP": 0.368,
"predicted_R": 0.689,
"predicted_RBI": 0.8,
"predicted_SLG": 0.471,
"predicted_SO": 1.122
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2649,
"predicted_3B": 0.0169,
"predicted_AB": 4.1542,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2642,
"predicted_BB": 0.543,
"predicted_H": 1.0979,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.1557,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3644,
"predicted_R": 0.6711,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7891,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4766,
"predicted_SO": 1.1452
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2649,
"delta": 0.0149,
"percent_delta": 0.0596,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0169,
"delta": -0.0031,
"percent_delta": -0.155,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.32,
"after": 4.1542,
"delta": -0.1658,
"percent_delta": -0.0384,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.251,
"after": 0.2642,
"delta": 0.0132,
"percent_delta": 0.0526,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.588,
"after": 0.543,
"delta": -0.045,
"percent_delta": -0.0765,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.09,
"after": 1.0979,
"delta": 0.0079,
"percent_delta": 0.0072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.1557,
"delta": 0.0057,
"percent_delta": 0.038,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.368,
"after": 0.3644,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0098,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.689,
"after": 0.6711,
"delta": -0.0179,
"percent_delta": -0.026,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.348,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.386,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": -1.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": -1.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"delta": -1.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"better_metrics": 1,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2687,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3541,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4553,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"after": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.348,
"after": 0.3541,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0175,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.386,
"after": 0.4553,
"delta": 0.0693,
"percent_delta": 0.1794,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0139,
"percent_delta": -0.0378,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.689,
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"delta": -0.689,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.8,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.8,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.471,
"after": 0.4553,
"delta": -0.0157,
"percent_delta": -0.0333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 1.122,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.122,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 2,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.320 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.588 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.090 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.368 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.689 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.800 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.471 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.122 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.265 | 0.015 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.154 | -0.166 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | 0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.543 | -0.045 |
| predicted_H | 1.098 | 0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.156 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.364 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.671 | -0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.789 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.477 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 1.145 | 0.023 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.265 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.154 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.549 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 1.116 | 0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.159 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.354 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.691 | 0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.813 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.455 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 1.132 | -0.013 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.037
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.273)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.181 | 0.181 |
| 3B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.605 | 0.605 |
| H | 0.883 | -0.117 |
| HR | 0.117 | 0.117 |
| RBI | 0.598 | -0.402 |
| SO | 1.056 | 0.056 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.819 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.395 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.117 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.117 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.402 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.056 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.265 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.017 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.154 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | -0.033 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.549 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.116 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.348 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.309 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.187 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.386 | -0.069 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.132 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.3000 | 0.3636 | 0.5500 | 0.3000 | 0.0500 | 0.3000 | 0.1000 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 41.000 | 12.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 16.000 | 0.2927 | 0.3409 | 0.5122 | 0.2927 | 0.0488 | 0.1707 | 0.0732 | 0.3902 |
| season | 0.60 | 148 | - | 574.000 | 157.000 | 37.000 | 3.000 | 21.000 | 101.000 | 102.000 | 87.000 | 166.000 | 0.2735 | 0.3690 | 0.4582 | 0.2735 | 0.0366 | 0.1760 | 0.1516 | 0.2892 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2840 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2812 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4850 |
| predicted_H | 1.1080 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1630 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3598 |
| predicted_R | 0.6480 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7750 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4839 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1750 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2500 | 0.2840 | 0.2649 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0200 | 0.0130 | 0.0169 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3200 | 3.9410 | 4.1542 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2510 | 0.2812 | 0.2642 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5880 | 0.4850 | 0.5430 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0900 | 1.1080 | 1.0979 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1500 | 0.1630 | 0.1557 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3680 | 0.3598 | 0.3644 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6890 | 0.6480 | 0.6711 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8000 | 0.7750 | 0.7891 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4710 | 0.4839 | 0.4766 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1220 | 1.1750 | 1.1452 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 652 |
| Season rows before report date | 652 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 148 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 668930 |
| playerID | 668930 |
| playerName | Brice Turang |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.358 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.344 |
| sl_xba | 0.255 |
| sl_xslg | 0.428 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 8.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.214 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.253 | 0.000 | -0.253 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.080 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.273 | 4.000 | -0.273 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.288 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.300 | 0.250 | 0.200 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.373 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.380 | 0.000 | -0.380 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.041 | 0.000 | -0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.460 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.282 | 1.000 | 0.718 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.320 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.201 | 1.000 | -0.201 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.400 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.358 | 0.250 | 0.142 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.770 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.823 | 1.000 | 0.177 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.110 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.620 | 2.000 | -0.620 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.570 | 0.500 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.500 | 1.000 | -0.000 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 1.063 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.098 | 0.000 | -1.098 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.4600 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.5400, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 1.1100 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | predicted_R: 0.7700 -> 0.8532 (boost 0.0832, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0800 -> 4.4796 (deboost -0.6004, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.4090 -> 0.3730 (deboost -0.0360, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.9186 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0814, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.4796 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.4796, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.060 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.8790 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1210, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4147 (boost 0.4147, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5709 (deboost -0.4291, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | predicted_HR: 0.1682 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8318, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4147 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4147, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4080 -> 0.5620 (boost 0.1540, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "694192",
"player_name": "Jackson Chourio",
"position": "LF",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.214,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.08,
"predicted_AVG": 0.288,
"predicted_BB": 0.373,
"predicted_H": 1.46,
"predicted_HR": 0.32,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4,
"predicted_R": 0.77,
"predicted_RBI": 1.11,
"predicted_SLG": 0.57,
"predicted_SO": 1.063
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1722,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.4796,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3184,
"predicted_BB": 0.3895,
"predicted_H": 1.4008,
"predicted_HBP": 0.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.3008,
"predicted_OBP": 0.409,
"predicted_R": 0.8532,
"predicted_RBI": 1.019,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5892,
"predicted_SO": 0.9293
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.214,
"after": 0.1722,
"delta": -0.0418,
"percent_delta": -0.1953,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.08,
"after": 4.4796,
"delta": -0.6004,
"percent_delta": -0.1182,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": 0.0304,
"percent_delta": 0.1056,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.373,
"after": 0.3895,
"delta": 0.0165,
"percent_delta": 0.0442,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.46,
"after": 1.4008,
"delta": -0.0592,
"percent_delta": -0.0405,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.3008,
"delta": -0.0192,
"percent_delta": -0.06,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.409,
"delta": 0.009,
"percent_delta": 0.0225,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.77,
"after": 0.8532,
"delta": 0.0832,
"percent_delta": 0.1081,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.11,
"after": 1.019,
"delta": -0.091,
"percent_delta": -0.082,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.5892,
"delta": 0.0192,
"percent_delta": 0.0337,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.063,
"after": 0.9293,
"delta": -0.1337,
"percent_delta": -0.1258,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.77,
"after": 0.8532,
"delta": 0.0832,
"percent_delta": 0.1081,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.08,
"after": 4.4796,
"delta": -0.6004,
"percent_delta": -0.1182,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 126
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1722,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.4796,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3179,
"predicted_BB": 0.394,
"predicted_H": 1.4241,
"predicted_HBP": 0.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.3068,
"predicted_OBP": 0.373,
"predicted_R": 0.879,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0498,
"predicted_SLG": 0.562,
"predicted_SO": 0.9186
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1722,
"after": 0.1722,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.4796,
"after": 4.4796,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3184,
"after": 0.3179,
"delta": -0.0005,
"percent_delta": -0.0016,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3895,
"after": 0.394,
"delta": 0.0045,
"percent_delta": 0.0116,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.4008,
"after": 1.4241,
"delta": 0.0233,
"percent_delta": 0.0166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.01,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.3008,
"after": 0.3068,
"delta": 0.006,
"percent_delta": 0.0199,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.373,
"delta": -0.036,
"percent_delta": -0.088,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.8532,
"after": 0.879,
"delta": 0.0258,
"percent_delta": 0.0302,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.019,
"after": 1.0498,
"delta": 0.0308,
"percent_delta": 0.0302,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5892,
"after": 0.562,
"delta": -0.0272,
"percent_delta": -0.0462,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9293,
"after": 0.9186,
"delta": -0.0107,
"percent_delta": -0.0115,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.373,
"delta": -0.036,
"percent_delta": -0.088,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.060",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1722,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1722,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.4796,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.4796,
"percent_delta": -0.1071,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.394,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.394,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.4241,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.4241,
"percent_delta": -0.2978,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.239,
"after": 0.3179,
"delta": 0.0789,
"percent_delta": 0.3301,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.373,
"delta": 0.059,
"percent_delta": 0.188,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.408,
"after": 0.562,
"delta": 0.154,
"percent_delta": 0.3774,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.408,
"after": 0.562,
"delta": 0.154,
"percent_delta": 0.3774,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.214,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.214,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.08,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.08,
"percent_delta": -0.2126,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.3179,
"delta": 0.0299,
"percent_delta": 0.1038,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.373,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.373,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.46,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.54,
"percent_delta": 0.3699,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.32,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.373,
"delta": -0.027,
"percent_delta": -0.0675,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.77,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.23,
"percent_delta": 0.2987,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.11,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.11,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.562,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -0.014,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.063,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.063,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.46,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.54,
"percent_delta": 0.3699,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.11,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.11,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.214 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.080 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.288 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.373 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.460 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.320 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.770 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 1.110 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.570 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.063 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.172 | -0.042 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.480 | -0.600 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.318 | 0.030 |
| predicted_BB | 0.390 | 0.017 |
| predicted_H | 1.401 | -0.059 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.301 | -0.019 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.409 | 0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.853 | 0.083 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.019 | -0.091 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.589 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 0.929 | -0.134 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.172 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.480 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.318 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.394 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 1.424 | 0.023 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.307 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.373 | -0.036 |
| predicted_R | 0.879 | 0.026 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.050 | 0.031 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.562 | -0.027 |
| predicted_SO | 0.919 | -0.011 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.060
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.177 | 0.177 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.415 | 0.415 |
| H | 0.981 | -0.019 |
| HR | 0.168 | 0.168 |
| RBI | 0.571 | -0.429 |
| SO | 1.190 | 0.190 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.177 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.415 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.019 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.832 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.429 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.190 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.172 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.480 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | -0.079 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.394 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.424 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.307 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | -0.059 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.121 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | -0.050 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.408 | -0.154 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.081 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.5714 | 0.6250 | 1.0000 | 0.5714 | 0.1429 | 0.5000 | 0.1429 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 12.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 0.3636 | 0.4474 | 0.6364 | 0.3636 | 0.0909 | 0.3030 | 0.1515 | 0.2424 |
| season | 0.60 | 126 | - | 520.000 | 153.000 | 27.000 | 0.000 | 26.000 | 77.000 | 97.000 | 47.000 | 134.000 | 0.2942 | 0.3538 | 0.4962 | 0.2942 | 0.0500 | 0.1481 | 0.0904 | 0.2577 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1180 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7010 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3578 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4110 |
| predicted_H | 1.3240 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0100 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2760 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4207 |
| predicted_R | 0.9610 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.9010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.6141 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7560 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2140 | 0.1180 | 0.1722 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.0800 | 3.7010 | 4.4796 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2880 | 0.3578 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3730 | 0.4110 | 0.3895 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.4600 | 1.3240 | 1.4008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0100 | 0.0100 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.3200 | 0.2760 | 0.3008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4000 | 0.4207 | 0.4090 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.7700 | 0.9610 | 0.8532 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 1.1100 | 0.9010 | 1.0190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5700 | 0.6141 | 0.5892 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0630 | 0.7560 | 0.9293 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 542 |
| Season rows before report date | 542 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 126 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 694192 |
| playerID | 694192 |
| playerName | Jackson Chourio |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.361 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.344 |
| sl_xba | 0.265 |
| sl_xslg | 0.475 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.186 | 0.000 | 0.814 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.630 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.984 | 3.000 | 0.016 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.275 | 0.333 | -0.025 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.418 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.439 | 1.000 | -0.439 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.100 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.094 | 1.000 | -0.094 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.130 | 1.000 | -0.130 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.339 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.345 | 0.500 | -0.095 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.562 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.610 | 1.000 | 0.390 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.900 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.679 | 1.000 | 1.321 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.440 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.423 | 1.333 | 0.077 | -0.833 |
| predicted_SO | 0.637 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.641 | 0.000 | 2.359 | 3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.6370 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.3630, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.6300 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.6300, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | predicted_AVG: 0.2380 -> 0.2469 (boost 0.0089, better) | predicted_AB: 4.6300 -> 4.2333 (deboost -0.3967, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3390 -> 0.3208 (deboost -0.0182, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.6184 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3816, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4440 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4440, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.043 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.000) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5209 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4791, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4360 (boost 0.4360, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5615 (deboost -0.4385, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.5615 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4385, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4288 -> 0.3550 (deboost -0.0738, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3550 -> 0.4288 (boost 0.0738, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "661388",
"player_name": "William Contreras",
"position": "C",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
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"predicted_AVG": 0.238,
"predicted_BB": 0.418,
"predicted_H": 1.1,
"predicted_HR": 0.22,
"predicted_OBP": 0.339,
"predicted_R": 0.562,
"predicted_RBI": 0.9,
"predicted_SLG": 0.44,
"predicted_SO": 0.637
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0057,
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"predicted_BB": 0.439,
"predicted_H": 1.0393,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.1934,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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"season": 0.6
}
},
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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"stats": {
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},
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],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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},
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2496,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.3208,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.4288,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0738,
"percent_delta": 0.2078,
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -0.0909,
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},
{
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},
{
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.562,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.438,
"percent_delta": 0.7794,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.9,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.1,
"percent_delta": 1.2222,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 0.4288,
"delta": -0.0112,
"percent_delta": -0.0255,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.637,
"after": 3.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.630 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.418 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.100 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.339 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.562 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.900 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.440 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.637 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | -0.023 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.233 | -0.397 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | 0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.439 | 0.021 |
| predicted_H | 1.039 | -0.061 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.193 | -0.027 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.339 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.506 | -0.056 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.822 | -0.078 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.432 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.626 | -0.011 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.233 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.444 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 1.057 | 0.017 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.197 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.321 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 0.521 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.847 | 0.025 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.429 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.618 | -0.007 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.043
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.000)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.153 | 0.153 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.436 | 0.436 |
| H | 0.845 | -0.155 |
| HR | 0.113 | 0.113 |
| RBI | 0.561 | -0.439 |
| SO | 0.750 | -0.250 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.153 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.436 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.155 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.113 |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.439 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.250 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.233 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.222 | -0.028 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.444 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.057 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.197 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | -0.014 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.479 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.153 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.355 | -0.074 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.382 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.2353 | 0.3500 | 0.4118 | 0.2353 | 0.0588 | 0.2353 | 0.1765 | 0.1177 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3333 | 0.4444 | 0.2500 | 0.0556 | 0.2500 | 0.1389 | 0.1944 |
| season | 0.60 | 146 | - | 564.000 | 152.000 | 26.000 | 1.000 | 19.000 | 94.000 | 82.000 | 61.000 | 93.000 | 0.2695 | 0.3401 | 0.4202 | 0.2695 | 0.0337 | 0.1667 | 0.1082 | 0.1649 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1260 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7220 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2583 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4660 |
| predicted_H | 0.9610 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1590 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3391 |
| predicted_R | 0.4330 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7220 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4226 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6110 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1780 | 0.1260 | 0.1553 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 | 0.0040 | 0.0057 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.6300 | 3.7220 | 4.2333 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2380 | 0.2583 | 0.2469 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4180 | 0.4660 | 0.4390 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1000 | 0.9610 | 1.0393 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0170 | 0.0170 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2200 | 0.1590 | 0.1934 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3390 | 0.3391 | 0.3390 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5620 | 0.4330 | 0.5056 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.9000 | 0.7220 | 0.8222 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4400 | 0.4226 | 0.4324 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6370 | 0.6110 | 0.6256 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 608 |
| Season rows before report date | 608 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 146 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 661388 |
| playerID | 661388 |
| playerName | William Contreras |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.33 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.334 |
| sl_xba | 0.261 |
| sl_xslg | 0.441 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.144 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.142 | 0.000 | 0.858 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | 0.984 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.388 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.509 | 3.000 | 0.491 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | 0.750 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.270 | 0.667 | 0.480 | 0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.640 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.737 | 0.000 | -0.737 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.035 | 0.000 | -0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.947 | 2.000 | 2.053 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.203 | 0.000 | -0.203 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.389 | 0.750 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.399 | 0.750 | 0.351 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.655 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.704 | 0.000 | 0.296 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.490 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.668 | 0.000 | -0.668 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.431 | 1.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.493 | 0.667 | 1.007 | 0.833 |
| predicted_SO | 1.108 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.120 | 0.000 | -1.120 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.8700 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.1300, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.1080 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1080, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.1080 -> 1.1681 (boost 0.0601, worse) | predicted_OBP: 0.3890 -> 0.3840 (deboost -0.0050, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4304 -> 0.4425 (boost 0.0121, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2751 -> 0.2693 (deboost -0.0058, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.4324 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5676, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1623 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1623, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.040 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6631 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3369, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 1.1860 (boost 0.1860, worse) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5239 (deboost -0.4761, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.5239 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4761, better) | predicted_SO: 1.1860 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.1860, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4425 -> 0.3860 (deboost -0.0565, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3860 -> 0.4425 (boost 0.0565, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "641343",
"player_name": "Jake Bauers",
"position": "1B",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.144,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 3.388,
"predicted_AVG": 0.275,
"predicted_BB": 0.64,
"predicted_H": 0.87,
"predicted_HR": 0.15,
"predicted_OBP": 0.389,
"predicted_R": 0.655,
"predicted_RBI": 0.49,
"predicted_SLG": 0.431,
"predicted_SO": 1.108
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1623,
"predicted_3B": 0.0118,
"predicted_AB": 3.4324,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2751,
"predicted_BB": 0.5965,
"predicted_H": 0.9092,
"predicted_HBP": 0.077,
"predicted_HR": 0.1335,
"predicted_OBP": 0.384,
"predicted_R": 0.6437,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5118,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4304,
"predicted_SO": 1.1681
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.144,
"after": 0.1623,
"delta": 0.0183,
"percent_delta": 0.1271,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.0118,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.1571,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.388,
"after": 3.4324,
"delta": 0.0444,
"percent_delta": 0.0131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.275,
"after": 0.2751,
"delta": 0.0001,
"percent_delta": 0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 0.5965,
"delta": -0.0435,
"percent_delta": -0.068,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 0.9092,
"delta": 0.0392,
"percent_delta": 0.0451,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.1335,
"delta": -0.0165,
"percent_delta": -0.11,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.389,
"after": 0.384,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0129,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.655,
"after": 0.6437,
"delta": -0.0113,
"percent_delta": -0.0173,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.49,
"after": 0.5118,
"delta": 0.0218,
"percent_delta": 0.0445,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.431,
"after": 0.4304,
"delta": -0.0006,
"percent_delta": -0.0014,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.108,
"after": 1.1681,
"delta": 0.0601,
"percent_delta": 0.0542,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.108,
"after": 1.1681,
"delta": 0.0601,
"percent_delta": 0.0542,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.389,
"after": 0.384,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0129,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 139
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1623,
"predicted_3B": 0.0118,
"predicted_AB": 3.4324,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2693,
"predicted_BB": 0.6034,
"predicted_H": 0.9243,
"predicted_HBP": 0.077,
"predicted_HR": 0.1362,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3785,
"predicted_R": 0.6631,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5273,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4425,
"predicted_SO": 1.1547
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1623,
"after": 0.1623,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0118,
"after": 0.0118,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4425,
"after": 0.386,
"delta": -0.0565,
"percent_delta": -0.1277,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 1.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 1.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2693,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3785,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4425,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.2693,
"delta": 0.0503,
"percent_delta": 0.2296,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.348,
"after": 0.3785,
"delta": 0.0305,
"percent_delta": 0.0877,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.386,
"after": 0.4425,
"delta": 0.0565,
"percent_delta": 0.1463,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.386,
"after": 0.4425,
"delta": 0.0565,
"percent_delta": 0.1463,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.144,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.856,
"percent_delta": 5.9444,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.986,
"percent_delta": 70.4286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.388,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.612,
"percent_delta": 0.1806,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.275,
"after": 0.2693,
"delta": -0.0057,
"percent_delta": -0.0207,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.64,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.13,
"percent_delta": 2.4483,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.15,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.389,
"after": 0.3785,
"delta": -0.0105,
"percent_delta": -0.027,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.655,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.345,
"percent_delta": 0.5267,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.49,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.49,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.431,
"after": 0.4425,
"delta": 0.0115,
"percent_delta": 0.0267,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.108,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.108,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.13,
"percent_delta": 2.4483,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.108,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.108,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.144 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.388 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.640 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.389 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.655 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.490 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.431 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.108 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.162 | 0.018 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.432 | 0.044 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.597 | -0.043 |
| predicted_H | 0.909 | 0.039 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.077 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.134 | -0.016 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.384 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.644 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.512 | 0.022 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.430 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.168 | 0.060 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.162 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.432 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.603 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.924 | 0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.077 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.136 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.379 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.663 | 0.019 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.527 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.443 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 1.155 | -0.013 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.040
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.147 | 0.147 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.681 | -0.319 |
| H | 0.794 | -0.206 |
| HR | 0.145 | 0.145 |
| RBI | 0.524 | -0.476 |
| SO | 1.186 | 0.186 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.319 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.206 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.476 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.186 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.162 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.568 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | -0.050 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.397 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.076 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.348 | -0.031 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.337 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.473 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.386 | -0.056 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.155 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.3158 | 0.3636 | 0.3684 | 0.3158 | 0.0000 | 0.1579 | 0.0526 | 0.3684 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 16.000 | 0.2647 | 0.3810 | 0.3529 | 0.2647 | 0.0000 | 0.0882 | 0.1765 | 0.4706 |
| season | 0.60 | 139 | - | 471.000 | 126.000 | 20.000 | 2.000 | 25.000 | 84.000 | 91.000 | 89.000 | 154.000 | 0.2675 | 0.3873 | 0.4777 | 0.2675 | 0.0531 | 0.1783 | 0.1890 | 0.3270 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1860 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4900 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2752 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5400 |
| predicted_H | 0.9600 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0770 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1120 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3775 |
| predicted_R | 0.6290 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5400 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4297 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2460 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1440 | 0.1860 | 0.1623 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 | 0.0090 | 0.0118 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3880 | 3.4900 | 3.4324 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2750 | 0.2752 | 0.2751 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.6400 | 0.5400 | 0.5965 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8700 | 0.9600 | 0.9092 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0770 | 0.0770 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1500 | 0.1120 | 0.1335 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3890 | 0.3775 | 0.3840 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6550 | 0.6290 | 0.6437 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4900 | 0.5400 | 0.5118 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4310 | 0.4297 | 0.4304 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1080 | 1.2460 | 1.1681 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 548 |
| Season rows before report date | 548 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 139 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 3 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.667 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 641343 |
| playerID | 641343 |
| playerName | Jake Bauers |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 16.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.381 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.371 |
| sl_xba | 0.253 |
| sl_xslg | 0.467 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 14.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 51.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.085 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.104 | 0.000 | -0.104 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.028 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.056 | 0.000 | -0.056 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.200 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.313 | 4.000 | -0.313 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.286 | 0.000 | -0.286 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.338 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.378 | 0.000 | -0.378 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.024 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.850 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.948 | 0.000 | -0.948 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.048 | 0.000 | -0.048 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.332 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.355 | 0.000 | -0.355 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.423 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.538 | 0.000 | -0.538 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.340 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.558 | 0.000 | -0.558 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.334 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.395 | 0.000 | -0.395 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.676 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.651 | 2.000 | -0.651 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_OBP: 0.3320 -> 0.3433 (boost 0.0113, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3340 -> 0.3401 (boost 0.0061, better) | predicted_R: 0.4230 -> 0.3668 (deboost -0.0562, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3357 -> 0.3433 (boost 0.0076, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6952 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3048, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3706 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3706, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.008 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3779 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3779, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4556 (boost 0.4556, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7716 (deboost -0.2284, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.7845 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2155, worse) | predicted_H: 0.7716 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7716, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2713 -> 0.2300 (deboost -0.0413, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2300 -> 0.2713 (boost 0.0413, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "806198",
"player_name": "Cooper Pratt",
"position": "SS",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.085,
"predicted_3B": 0.028,
"predicted_AB": 3.2,
"predicted_AVG": 0.266,
"predicted_BB": 0.338,
"predicted_H": 0.85,
"predicted_HR": 0.02,
"predicted_OBP": 0.332,
"predicted_R": 0.423,
"predicted_RBI": 0.34,
"predicted_SLG": 0.334,
"predicted_SO": 0.676
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0988,
"predicted_3B": 0.023,
"predicted_AB": 3.1924,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2672,
"predicted_BB": 0.346,
"predicted_H": 0.8521,
"predicted_HBP": 0.018,
"predicted_HR": 0.0259,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3357,
"predicted_R": 0.3668,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3597,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3401,
"predicted_SO": 0.7033
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.085,
"after": 0.0988,
"delta": 0.0138,
"percent_delta": 0.1624,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.028,
"after": 0.023,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.1786,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2,
"after": 3.1924,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.0024,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.2672,
"delta": 0.0012,
"percent_delta": 0.0045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.338,
"after": 0.346,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0237,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 0.8521,
"delta": 0.0021,
"percent_delta": 0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0259,
"delta": 0.0059,
"percent_delta": 0.295,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.332,
"after": 0.3357,
"delta": 0.0037,
"percent_delta": 0.0111,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.423,
"after": 0.3668,
"delta": -0.0562,
"percent_delta": -0.1329,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.3597,
"delta": 0.0197,
"percent_delta": 0.0579,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.334,
"after": 0.3401,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0183,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.676,
"after": 0.7033,
"delta": 0.0273,
"percent_delta": 0.0404,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.334,
"after": 0.3401,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0183,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.423,
"after": 0.3668,
"delta": -0.0562,
"percent_delta": -0.1329,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 71
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0988,
"predicted_3B": 0.023,
"predicted_AB": 3.1924,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2713,
"predicted_BB": 0.35,
"predicted_H": 0.8662,
"predicted_HBP": 0.018,
"predicted_HR": 0.0264,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3433,
"predicted_R": 0.3779,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3706,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3415,
"predicted_SO": 0.6952
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0988,
"after": 0.0988,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 0.023,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.1924,
"after": 3.1924,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2672,
"after": 0.2713,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0153,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.346,
"after": 0.35,
"delta": 0.004,
"percent_delta": 0.0116,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8521,
"after": 0.8662,
"delta": 0.0141,
"percent_delta": 0.0165,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.018,
"after": 0.018,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0259,
"after": 0.0264,
"delta": 0.0005,
"percent_delta": 0.0193,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3357,
"after": 0.3433,
"delta": 0.0076,
"percent_delta": 0.0226,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3668,
"after": 0.3779,
"delta": 0.0111,
"percent_delta": 0.0303,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3597,
"after": 0.3706,
"delta": 0.0109,
"percent_delta": 0.0303,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3401,
"after": 0.3415,
"delta": 0.0014,
"percent_delta": 0.0041,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7033,
"after": 0.6952,
"delta": -0.0081,
"percent_delta": -0.0115,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3357,
"after": 0.3433,
"delta": 0.0076,
"percent_delta": 0.0226,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.008",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0988,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0988,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.023,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.1924,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.1924,
"percent_delta": -0.0603,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.35,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8662,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1338,
"percent_delta": 0.1545,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.018,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.018,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0264,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0264,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3706,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3706,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6952,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3048,
"percent_delta": 0.4384,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6952,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3048,
"percent_delta": 0.4384,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3706,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3706,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
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"percent_delta": 0.034,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.423,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.423,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.34,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.334,
"after": 0.3415,
"delta": 0.0075,
"percent_delta": 0.0225,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.676,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.676,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.332,
"after": 0.3433,
"delta": 0.0113,
"percent_delta": 0.034,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.85,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.085 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.028 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.200 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.338 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.850 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.332 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.423 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.340 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.334 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.676 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.099 | 0.014 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.192 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.346 | 0.008 |
| predicted_H | 0.852 | 0.002 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.018 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.026 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.367 | -0.056 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.360 | 0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.340 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.703 | 0.027 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.099 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.192 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.271 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.350 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.866 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.026 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.343 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.378 | 0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.371 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.342 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.695 | -0.008 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.008
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.130 | 0.130 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.370 | 0.370 |
| H | 0.772 | -0.228 |
| HR | 0.073 | 0.073 |
| RBI | 0.456 | 0.456 |
| SO | 0.784 | -0.216 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.130 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.370 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.772 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.073 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.456 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.216 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.099 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.023 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.192 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | -0.041 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.350 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.134 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.026 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | -0.031 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.378 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.371 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.341 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.305 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.2667 | 0.3529 | 0.3333 | 0.2667 | 0.0000 | 0.0667 | 0.1333 | 0.2667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 30.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 0.2667 | 0.3529 | 0.3000 | 0.2667 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.1333 | 0.2667 |
| season | 0.60 | 71 | - | 226.000 | 62.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 33.000 | 30.000 | 24.000 | 48.000 | 0.2743 | 0.3398 | 0.3584 | 0.2743 | 0.0133 | 0.1460 | 0.1062 | 0.2124 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1180 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 |
| predicted_AB | 3.1820 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2689 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3570 |
| predicted_H | 0.8550 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0180 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0340 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3409 |
| predicted_R | 0.2890 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3870 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3485 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7410 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0850 | 0.1180 | 0.0988 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0280 | 0.0160 | 0.0230 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.2000 | 3.1820 | 3.1924 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2660 | 0.2689 | 0.2672 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3380 | 0.3570 | 0.3460 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8500 | 0.8550 | 0.8521 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0180 | 0.0180 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0200 | 0.0340 | 0.0259 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3320 | 0.3409 | 0.3357 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4230 | 0.2890 | 0.3668 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3400 | 0.3870 | 0.3597 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3340 | 0.3485 | 0.3401 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6760 | 0.7410 | 0.7033 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 249 |
| Season rows before report date | 249 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 71 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 806198 |
| playerID | 806198 |
| playerName | Cooper Pratt |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.32 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.315 |
| sl_xba | 0.266 |
| sl_xslg | 0.362 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 41.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 27.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 9.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.233 | 0.000 | -0.233 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.029 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.034 | 0.000 | -0.034 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.690 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.539 | 3.000 | 0.461 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.274 | 0.333 | -0.024 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.406 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.431 | 1.000 | -0.431 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.058 | 0.000 | -0.058 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.890 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.968 | 1.000 | 0.032 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.083 | 0.000 | -0.083 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.358 | 0.500 | -0.108 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.522 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.583 | 1.000 | 0.417 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.330 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.527 | 0.000 | -0.527 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.358 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.429 | 0.333 | -0.179 | -0.083 |
| predicted_SO | 1.181 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.179 | 1.000 | -0.179 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.5220 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4780, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.4060 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4060, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 3.6900 -> 3.5286 (deboost -0.1614, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3468 -> 0.3638 (boost 0.0170, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3350 -> 0.3274 (deboost -0.0076, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.5286 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.4714, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4322 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4322, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.018 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5682 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4318, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4828 (boost 0.4828, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8066 (deboost -0.1934, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.4828 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5172, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4412 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4412, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2280 -> 0.2450 (boost 0.0170, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669003",
"player_name": "Garrett Mitchell",
"position": "CF",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.203,
"predicted_3B": 0.029,
"predicted_AB": 3.69,
"predicted_AVG": 0.241,
"predicted_BB": 0.406,
"predicted_H": 0.89,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.334,
"predicted_R": 0.522,
"predicted_RBI": 0.33,
"predicted_SLG": 0.358,
"predicted_SO": 1.181
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1692,
"predicted_3B": 0.0238,
"predicted_AB": 3.5286,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2409,
"predicted_BB": 0.4273,
"predicted_H": 0.8505,
"predicted_HBP": 0.027,
"predicted_HR": 0.0661,
"predicted_OBP": 0.335,
"predicted_R": 0.5515,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3014,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3468,
"predicted_SO": 1.194
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.203,
"after": 0.1692,
"delta": -0.0338,
"percent_delta": -0.1665,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.029,
"after": 0.0238,
"delta": -0.0052,
"percent_delta": -0.1793,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.69,
"after": 3.5286,
"delta": -0.1614,
"percent_delta": -0.0437,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2409,
"delta": -0.0001,
"percent_delta": -0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.406,
"after": 0.4273,
"delta": 0.0213,
"percent_delta": 0.0525,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.89,
"after": 0.8505,
"delta": -0.0395,
"percent_delta": -0.0444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0661,
"delta": -0.0139,
"percent_delta": -0.1737,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.334,
"after": 0.335,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.003,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.522,
"after": 0.5515,
"delta": 0.0295,
"percent_delta": 0.0565,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.3014,
"delta": -0.0286,
"percent_delta": -0.0867,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.3468,
"delta": -0.0112,
"percent_delta": -0.0313,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.181,
"after": 1.194,
"delta": 0.013,
"percent_delta": 0.011,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.69,
"after": 3.5286,
"delta": -0.1614,
"percent_delta": -0.0437,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
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"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.245,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3274,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3638,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.228,
"after": 0.245,
"delta": 0.017,
"percent_delta": 0.0747,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3274,
"delta": 0.0024,
"percent_delta": 0.0074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.36,
"after": 0.3638,
"delta": 0.0038,
"percent_delta": 0.0105,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.228,
"after": 0.245,
"delta": 0.017,
"percent_delta": 0.0747,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.203,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.203,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.029,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.029,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.69,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.31,
"percent_delta": 0.084,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.245,
"delta": 0.004,
"percent_delta": 0.0166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.406,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.406,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.89,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.11,
"percent_delta": 0.1236,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.334,
"after": 0.3274,
"delta": -0.0066,
"percent_delta": -0.0198,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.522,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.478,
"percent_delta": 0.9157,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.33,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.3638,
"delta": 0.0058,
"percent_delta": 0.0162,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.181,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.181,
"percent_delta": -0.1533,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.522,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.478,
"percent_delta": 0.9157,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.406,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.406,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.029 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.690 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.406 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.890 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.522 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.330 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.358 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.181 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.169 | -0.034 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.529 | -0.161 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | -0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.427 | 0.021 |
| predicted_H | 0.851 | -0.039 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.027 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.066 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.335 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.551 | 0.029 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.301 | -0.029 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.347 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.194 | 0.013 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.169 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.529 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.432 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.865 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.067 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.568 | 0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.364 | 0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 1.180 | -0.014 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.018
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.177 | 0.177 |
| 3B | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| BB | 0.483 | 0.483 |
| H | 0.807 | -0.193 |
| HR | 0.087 | 0.087 |
| RBI | 0.441 | 0.441 |
| SO | 1.290 | 0.290 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.177 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.517 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.193 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.087 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.441 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.290 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.169 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.024 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.471 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | -0.017 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.432 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.135 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.067 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.432 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.310 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.360 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.180 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3684 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1875 | 0.3750 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 14.000 | 0.1765 | 0.2821 | 0.1765 | 0.1765 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1471 | 0.4118 |
| season | 0.60 | 138 | - | 453.000 | 117.000 | 28.000 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 58.000 | 72.000 | 56.000 | 163.000 | 0.2583 | 0.3469 | 0.4040 | 0.2583 | 0.0221 | 0.1280 | 0.1236 | 0.3598 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1250 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3180 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2407 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4550 |
| predicted_H | 0.7990 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0270 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0480 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3364 |
| predicted_R | 0.5900 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2640 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3321 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2110 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2030 | 0.1250 | 0.1692 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0290 | 0.0170 | 0.0238 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6900 | 3.3180 | 3.5286 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2410 | 0.2407 | 0.2409 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4060 | 0.4550 | 0.4273 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8900 | 0.7990 | 0.8505 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0270 | 0.0270 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0480 | 0.0661 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3340 | 0.3364 | 0.3350 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5220 | 0.5900 | 0.5515 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3300 | 0.2640 | 0.3014 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3580 | 0.3321 | 0.3468 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1810 | 1.2110 | 1.1940 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 503 |
| Season rows before report date | 503 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 138 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669003 |
| playerID | 669003 |
| playerName | Garrett Mitchell |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.34 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.353 |
| sl_xba | 0.268 |
| sl_xslg | 0.447 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 52.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 93.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 2.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.199 | 0.000 | -0.199 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.770 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.975 | 3.000 | 0.025 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.238 | 0.333 | 0.262 | 0.167 |
| predicted_BB | 0.426 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.457 | 0.000 | -0.457 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.010 | 0.000 | -0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.945 | 1.000 | 1.055 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.105 | 0.000 | 0.895 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | 0.500 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.321 | 0.333 | 0.179 | 0.167 |
| predicted_R | 0.583 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.635 | 0.000 | 0.365 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | 3.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.526 | 0.000 | 2.474 | 3.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.367 | 1.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.378 | 0.333 | 0.872 | 0.917 |
| predicted_SO | 1.139 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.184 | 0.000 | -1.184 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.4800 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.5200, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.1390 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1390, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AB: 3.7700 -> 3.6782 (deboost -0.0918, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3684 -> 0.3886 (boost 0.0202, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.6782 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.3218, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4936 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4936, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5663 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4337, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4607 (boost 0.4607, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7789 (deboost -0.2211, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.4597 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5403, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4607 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4607, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 3.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3540 -> 0.3886 (boost 0.0346, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "592885",
"player_name": "Christian Yelich",
"position": "DH",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.183,
"predicted_3B": 0.017,
"predicted_AB": 3.77,
"predicted_AVG": 0.23,
"predicted_BB": 0.426,
"predicted_H": 0.87,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.308,
"predicted_R": 0.583,
"predicted_RBI": 0.48,
"predicted_SLG": 0.367,
"predicted_SO": 1.139
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1505,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 3.6782,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2287,
"predicted_BB": 0.4191,
"predicted_H": 0.8432,
"predicted_HBP": 0.021,
"predicted_HR": 0.1287,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3084,
"predicted_R": 0.5497,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4791,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3684,
"predicted_SO": 1.1078
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.183,
"after": 0.1505,
"delta": -0.0325,
"percent_delta": -0.1776,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.014,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.1765,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.77,
"after": 3.6782,
"delta": -0.0918,
"percent_delta": -0.0244,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.2287,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.0057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.426,
"after": 0.4191,
"delta": -0.0069,
"percent_delta": -0.0162,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 0.8432,
"delta": -0.0268,
"percent_delta": -0.0308,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1287,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.308,
"after": 0.3084,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0013,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.583,
"after": 0.5497,
"delta": -0.0333,
"percent_delta": -0.0571,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 0.4791,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0019,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.367,
"after": 0.3684,
"delta": 0.0014,
"percent_delta": 0.0038,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.139,
"after": 1.1078,
"delta": -0.0312,
"percent_delta": -0.0274,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 3.77,
"after": 3.6782,
"delta": -0.0918,
"percent_delta": -0.0244,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 115
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1505,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 3.6782,
"predicted_AVG": 0.233,
"predicted_BB": 0.4239,
"predicted_H": 0.8572,
"predicted_HBP": 0.021,
"predicted_HR": 0.1313,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3123,
"predicted_R": 0.5663,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4936,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3886,
"predicted_SO": 1.0951
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1505,
"after": 0.1505,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.014,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"after": 3.6782,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.233,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.0188,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.4239,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.0115,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8432,
"after": 0.8572,
"delta": 0.014,
"percent_delta": 0.0166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.021,
"after": 0.021,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.1313,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0202,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3084,
"after": 0.3123,
"delta": 0.0039,
"percent_delta": 0.0126,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5497,
"after": 0.5663,
"delta": 0.0166,
"percent_delta": 0.0302,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.4936,
"delta": 0.0145,
"percent_delta": 0.0303,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"after": 0.3886,
"delta": 0.0202,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1078,
"after": 1.0951,
"delta": -0.0127,
"percent_delta": -0.0115,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.0202,
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.035",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1505,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1505,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.014,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.3218,
"percent_delta": 0.0875,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4239,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1428,
"percent_delta": 0.1666,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.021,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.021,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1313,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1313,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4936,
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"delta": -0.4936,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.0951,
"percent_delta": -0.0868,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.3218,
"percent_delta": 0.0875,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.4936,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"delta": 0.4337,
"percent_delta": 0.7658,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.4337,
"percent_delta": 0.7658,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1651,
"predicted_3B": 0.011,
"predicted_BB": 0.4597,
"predicted_H": 0.7789,
"predicted_HR": 0.1021,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4607,
"predicted_SO": 1.1276
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1651,
"delta": 0.1651,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
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{
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},
{
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"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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"stats": {
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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],
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}
},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.233,
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"predicted_DH": 0.0,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.3123,
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"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.3886,
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},
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0013,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.583,
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"delta": 0.417,
"percent_delta": 0.7153,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.52,
"percent_delta": 5.25,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.367,
"after": 0.3886,
"delta": 0.0216,
"percent_delta": 0.0589,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.770 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.426 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.583 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.367 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.139 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | -0.033 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.678 | -0.092 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.419 | -0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.843 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.021 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.129 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.550 | -0.033 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.479 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.368 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.108 | -0.031 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.678 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.424 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.857 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.131 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.566 | 0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.494 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.389 | 0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 1.095 | -0.013 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.165 | 0.165 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.460 | 0.460 |
| H | 0.779 | -0.221 |
| HR | 0.102 | 0.102 |
| RBI | 0.461 | 0.461 |
| SO | 1.128 | 0.128 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.165 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.540 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.221 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.102 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.461 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.128 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.322 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.217 | -0.016 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.424 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.143 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.131 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.434 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.494 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | -0.035 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.095 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 3.000 | 3.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.2667 | 0.3529 | 0.4667 | 0.2667 | 0.0667 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.2667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 | 0.1714 | 0.2564 | 0.2571 | 0.1714 | 0.0286 | 0.1429 | 0.1143 | 0.3429 |
| season | 0.60 | 115 | - | 430.000 | 99.000 | 21.000 | 2.000 | 12.000 | 57.000 | 67.000 | 49.000 | 131.000 | 0.2302 | 0.3121 | 0.3721 | 0.2302 | 0.0279 | 0.1326 | 0.1139 | 0.3046 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1080 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5580 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2270 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4100 |
| predicted_H | 0.8080 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0210 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1270 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3089 |
| predicted_R | 0.5060 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4780 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3703 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0670 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1830 | 0.1080 | 0.1505 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 | 0.0100 | 0.0140 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7700 | 3.5580 | 3.6782 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2300 | 0.2270 | 0.2287 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4260 | 0.4100 | 0.4191 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8700 | 0.8080 | 0.8432 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0210 | 0.0210 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.1270 | 0.1287 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3080 | 0.3089 | 0.3084 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5830 | 0.5060 | 0.5497 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4800 | 0.4780 | 0.4791 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3670 | 0.3703 | 0.3684 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1390 | 1.0670 | 1.1078 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 477 |
| Season rows before report date | 477 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 115 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 3 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 592885 |
| playerID | 592885 |
| playerName | Christian Yelich |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.305 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.308 |
| sl_xba | 0.23 |
| sl_xslg | 0.385 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 4.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.210 | 0.000 | -0.210 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.132 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.497 | 3.000 | 0.503 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.193 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.239 | 0.000 | 0.011 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.264 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.323 | 0.000 | -0.323 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.027 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.590 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.836 | 0.000 | 0.164 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.048 | 0.000 | -0.048 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.255 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.304 | 0.000 | -0.054 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.340 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.392 | 0.000 | -0.392 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.330 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.435 | 0.000 | -0.435 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.278 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.341 | 0.000 | -0.091 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.358 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.422 | 0.000 | 0.578 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.1320 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.8680, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.3400 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.2550 -> 0.2605 (boost 0.0055, better) | predicted_AB: 3.1320 -> 3.0619 (deboost -0.0701, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.2767 -> 0.2711 (deboost -0.0056, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.5902 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4098, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3378 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3378, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.008 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.500) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2921 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2921, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 0.4977 (boost 0.4977, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8032 (deboost -0.1968, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.4977 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5023, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4017 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4017, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2711 -> 0.3480 (boost 0.0769, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3480 -> 0.2711 (deboost -0.0769, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "686217",
"player_name": "Sal Frelick",
"position": "RF",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.17,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.132,
"predicted_AVG": 0.193,
"predicted_BB": 0.264,
"predicted_H": 0.59,
"predicted_HR": 0.02,
"predicted_OBP": 0.255,
"predicted_R": 0.34,
"predicted_RBI": 0.33,
"predicted_SLG": 0.278,
"predicted_SO": 0.358
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1674,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.0619,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1922,
"predicted_BB": 0.2815,
"predicted_H": 0.5806,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.0234,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2605,
"predicted_R": 0.2835,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3279,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2767,
"predicted_SO": 0.3071
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.1674,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0153,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.132,
"after": 3.0619,
"delta": -0.0701,
"percent_delta": -0.0224,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.193,
"after": 0.1922,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -0.0041,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.264,
"after": 0.2815,
"delta": 0.0175,
"percent_delta": 0.0663,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 0.5806,
"delta": -0.0094,
"percent_delta": -0.0159,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0234,
"delta": 0.0034,
"percent_delta": 0.17,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.255,
"after": 0.2605,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0216,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.2835,
"delta": -0.0565,
"percent_delta": -0.1662,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.3279,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.0064,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.2767,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.0047,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.3071,
"delta": -0.0509,
"percent_delta": -0.1422,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.255,
"after": 0.2605,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0216,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.132,
"after": 3.0619,
"delta": -0.0701,
"percent_delta": -0.0224,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 106
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1674,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.0619,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1928,
"predicted_BB": 0.2847,
"predicted_H": 0.5902,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.0239,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2614,
"predicted_R": 0.2921,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3378,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2711,
"predicted_SO": 0.3036
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1674,
"after": 0.1674,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0619,
"after": 3.0619,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1922,
"after": 0.1928,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0031,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2815,
"after": 0.2847,
"delta": 0.0032,
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"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1928,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2614,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2711,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.236,
"after": 0.1928,
"delta": -0.0432,
"percent_delta": -0.1832,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.313,
"after": 0.2614,
"delta": -0.0516,
"percent_delta": -0.1647,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.348,
"after": 0.2711,
"delta": -0.0769,
"percent_delta": -0.221,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.348,
"after": 0.2711,
"delta": -0.0769,
"percent_delta": -0.221,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.132,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.868,
"percent_delta": 0.2771,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.193,
"after": 0.1928,
"delta": -0.0002,
"percent_delta": -0.001,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.264,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.264,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.41,
"percent_delta": 0.6949,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.255,
"after": 0.2614,
"delta": 0.0064,
"percent_delta": 0.0251,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.34,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.33,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.2711,
"delta": -0.0069,
"percent_delta": -0.0248,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.642,
"percent_delta": 1.7933,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.132,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.868,
"percent_delta": 0.2771,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.34,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.132 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.193 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.264 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.590 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.255 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.340 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.330 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.278 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.358 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | -0.003 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.062 | -0.070 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.192 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.281 | 0.017 |
| predicted_H | 0.581 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.023 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.261 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.283 | -0.057 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.328 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.277 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.307 | -0.051 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.062 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.193 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.285 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.590 | 0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.024 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.261 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.292 | 0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.338 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.271 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.304 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.008
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.500)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.173 | 0.173 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.353 | 0.353 |
| H | 0.803 | -0.197 |
| HR | 0.065 | 0.065 |
| RBI | 0.402 | 0.402 |
| SO | 0.498 | 0.498 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.173 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.353 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.197 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.065 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.402 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.502 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.167 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.062 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | 0.043 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.285 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.410 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.024 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | 0.052 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.292 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.338 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.348 | 0.077 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.304 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.0769 | 0.2000 | 0.1538 | 0.0769 | 0.0000 | 0.0769 | 0.1538 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 25.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.1600 | 0.2414 | 0.2000 | 0.1600 | 0.0000 | 0.1200 | 0.1200 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.60 | 106 | - | 332.000 | 77.000 | 18.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 38.000 | 36.000 | 28.000 | 38.000 | 0.2319 | 0.2940 | 0.3223 | 0.2319 | 0.0120 | 0.1145 | 0.0843 | 0.1145 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1640 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 2.9680 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1912 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3050 |
| predicted_H | 0.5680 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0280 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2678 |
| predicted_R | 0.2080 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3250 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.2390 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1700 | 0.1640 | 0.1674 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1320 | 2.9680 | 3.0619 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1930 | 0.1912 | 0.1922 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2640 | 0.3050 | 0.2815 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.5900 | 0.5680 | 0.5806 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0120 | 0.0120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0200 | 0.0280 | 0.0234 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2550 | 0.2678 | 0.2605 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3400 | 0.2080 | 0.2835 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3300 | 0.3250 | 0.3279 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2780 | 0.2750 | 0.2767 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.3580 | 0.2390 | 0.3071 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 372 |
| Season rows before report date | 372 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 106 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260927_STL@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 686217 |
| playerID | 686217 |
| playerName | Sal Frelick |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 9.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.275 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.281 |
| sl_xba | 0.241 |
| sl_xslg | 0.324 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 26.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 9.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 10.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.123 | 0.000 | -0.123 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.009 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.187 | 3.000 | -0.187 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.256 | 0.333 | -0.256 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.259 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.313 | 0.000 | -0.313 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.053 | 0.000 | -0.053 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.600 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.816 | 1.000 | -0.816 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.048 | 0.000 | -0.048 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.317 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.324 | 0.333 | -0.324 | -0.333 |
| predicted_R | 0.429 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.492 | 1.000 | -0.492 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.283 | 0.000 | -0.283 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.357 | 0.333 | -0.357 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.759 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.762 | 0.000 | 1.238 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7590 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2410, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.6000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.6000 -> 0.6839 (boost 0.0839, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3225 -> 0.2895 (deboost -0.0330, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.6953 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3047, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2443 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2443, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.010 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4485 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4485, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3370 (boost 0.3370, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7193 (deboost -0.2807, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8699 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1301, worse) | predicted_H: 0.7193 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7193, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2317 -> 0.2250 (deboost -0.0067, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2250 -> 0.2317 (boost 0.0067, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3050 -> 0.2895 (deboost -0.0155, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "666152",
"player_name": "David Hamilton",
"position": "3B",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.027,
"predicted_AB": 3.009,
"predicted_AVG": 0.249,
"predicted_BB": 0.259,
"predicted_H": 0.6,
"predicted_HR": 0.03,
"predicted_OBP": 0.317,
"predicted_R": 0.429,
"predicted_RBI": 0.22,
"predicted_SLG": 0.33,
"predicted_SO": 0.759
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.149,
"predicted_3B": 0.0223,
"predicted_AB": 3.0013,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2563,
"predicted_BB": 0.2415,
"predicted_H": 0.6839,
"predicted_HBP": 0.071,
"predicted_HR": 0.0291,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3225,
"predicted_R": 0.4354,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2012,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3465,
"predicted_SO": 0.7701
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.149,
"delta": 0.033,
"percent_delta": 0.2845,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.027,
"after": 0.0223,
"delta": -0.0047,
"percent_delta": -0.1741,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.009,
"after": 3.0013,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.0026,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.2563,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0293,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.259,
"after": 0.2415,
"delta": -0.0175,
"percent_delta": -0.0676,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.6839,
"delta": 0.0839,
"percent_delta": 0.1398,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0291,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.03,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.317,
"after": 0.3225,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0174,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.4354,
"delta": 0.0064,
"percent_delta": 0.0149,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.2012,
"delta": -0.0188,
"percent_delta": -0.0855,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.3465,
"delta": 0.0165,
"percent_delta": 0.05,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.759,
"after": 0.7701,
"delta": 0.0111,
"percent_delta": 0.0146,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.6839,
"delta": 0.0839,
"percent_delta": 0.1398,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 112
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.149,
"predicted_3B": 0.0223,
"predicted_AB": 3.0013,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2317,
"predicted_BB": 0.2443,
"predicted_H": 0.6953,
"predicted_HBP": 0.071,
"predicted_HR": 0.0297,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2895,
"predicted_R": 0.4485,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2073,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3258,
"predicted_SO": 0.7612
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.149,
"after": 0.149,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0223,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0013,
"after": 3.0013,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2563,
"after": 0.2317,
"delta": -0.0246,
"percent_delta": -0.096,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2415,
"after": 0.2443,
"delta": 0.0028,
"percent_delta": 0.0116,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6839,
"after": 0.6953,
"delta": 0.0114,
"percent_delta": 0.0167,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.071,
"after": 0.071,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0291,
"after": 0.0297,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0206,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3225,
"after": 0.2895,
"delta": -0.033,
"percent_delta": -0.1023,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4354,
"after": 0.4485,
"delta": 0.0131,
"percent_delta": 0.0301,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2012,
"after": 0.2073,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0303,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3465,
"after": 0.3258,
"delta": -0.0207,
"percent_delta": -0.0597,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7701,
"after": 0.7612,
"delta": -0.0089,
"percent_delta": -0.0116,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.010",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.149,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.149,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.0223,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0013,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"before": 0.2443,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2443,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6953,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3047,
"percent_delta": 0.4382,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.071,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.071,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0297,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0297,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2073,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2073,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7612,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2388,
"percent_delta": 0.3137,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.6953,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3047,
"percent_delta": 0.4382,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2443,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2443,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4485,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4485,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 0.3258,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.0127,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.759,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.241,
"percent_delta": 1.635,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.759,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.241,
"percent_delta": 1.635,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.6,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.009 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.259 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.600 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.317 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.429 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.759 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | 0.033 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.001 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.256 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.241 | -0.018 |
| predicted_H | 0.684 | 0.084 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.071 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.029 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.323 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.435 | 0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.201 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.346 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.770 | 0.011 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | -0.025 |
| predicted_BB | 0.244 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.695 | 0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.071 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | -0.033 |
| predicted_R | 0.449 | 0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.207 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.326 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 0.761 | -0.009 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.010
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.139 | 0.139 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.337 | 0.337 |
| H | 0.719 | -0.281 |
| HR | 0.064 | 0.064 |
| RBI | 0.305 | 0.305 |
| SO | 0.870 | -0.130 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.139 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.337 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.719 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.064 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.305 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.130 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.149 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.244 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.305 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.030 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | 0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.449 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.207 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.337 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.239 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.3571 | 0.4375 | 0.5000 | 0.3571 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0714 | 0.2143 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 28.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3000 | 0.3214 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0357 | 0.0357 | 0.3571 |
| season | 0.60 | 112 | - | 337.000 | 82.000 | 13.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 26.000 | 48.000 | 29.000 | 85.000 | 0.2433 | 0.3071 | 0.3353 | 0.2433 | 0.0119 | 0.0771 | 0.0861 | 0.2522 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1930 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 |
| predicted_AB | 2.9910 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2660 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2180 |
| predicted_H | 0.7960 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0710 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0280 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3298 |
| predicted_R | 0.4440 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1760 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3686 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7850 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1160 | 0.1930 | 0.1490 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0270 | 0.0160 | 0.0223 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.0090 | 2.9910 | 3.0013 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2490 | 0.2660 | 0.2563 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2590 | 0.2180 | 0.2415 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6000 | 0.7960 | 0.6839 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0710 | 0.0710 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 | 0.0280 | 0.0291 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3170 | 0.3298 | 0.3225 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4290 | 0.4440 | 0.4354 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2200 | 0.1760 | 0.2012 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3300 | 0.3686 | 0.3465 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7590 | 0.7850 | 0.7701 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 374 |
| Season rows before report date | 374 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 112 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260927_STL@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 666152 |
| playerID | 666152 |
| playerName | David Hamilton |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.293 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.276 |
| sl_xba | 0.225 |
| sl_xslg | 0.316 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.056 | 3.000 | -0.056 | -2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.500 | 1.000 | 1.500 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 3.556 | 4.000 | -1.556 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.411 | 5.000 | 0.589 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 8.000 | 8.000 | 8.000 | Pitching_SO | 6.111 | 3.000 | 1.889 | 5.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "701656",
"player_name": "Logan Henderson",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 8.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 8.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 8.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 8.000 | - |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 8.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 29.000 | 7.000 | 16.000 | 5.000 | 31.000 | 4.000 | 2.1724 | 0.7241 | 0.2414 | 0.5517 | 0.1724 | 1.0690 | 0.1379 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 60.000 | 14.000 | 35.000 | 12.000 | 63.000 | 9.000 | 2.1000 | 0.7833 | 0.2333 | 0.5833 | 0.2000 | 1.0500 | 0.1500 |
| season | 0.20 | 18 | 98.100 | 27.000 | 64.000 | 19.000 | 110.000 | 14.000 | 2.4712 | 0.8441 | 0.2746 | 0.6509 | 0.1932 | 1.1186 | 0.1424 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.3190 |
| predicted_ER | 1.7520 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.7294 |
| predicted_H | 3.8710 |
| predicted_HR | 0.8320 |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 6.0210 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.8981 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 1.3190 | 1.1780 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 1.7520 | 2.3034 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.7294 | 2.7294 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 3.8710 | 3.0443 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.8320 | 0.9062 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 8.0000 | 6.0210 | 6.8954 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.8981 | 0.8981 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 18 |
| Season rows before report date | 18 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 18 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 6.0 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 8 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 21 |
| Pitches | 86 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 3 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 22 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.47 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 5 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 4 |
| Pitching_H | 4 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 87 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 3 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 51 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260923_MIL@PHI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 701656 |
| playerID | 701656 |
| playerName | Logan Henderson |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-09-23 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.252 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.257 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.2 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.233269412 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.814807899 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.539 | 0.000 | -0.539 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.408 | 0.000 | -0.408 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.096 | 1.200 | -0.096 | -0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.539 | 1.000 | -0.539 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "676879",
"player_name": "Aaron Ashby",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 7.200 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 2.3478 | 0.3913 | 0.2609 | 0.2609 | 0.1304 | 0.7826 | 0.1304 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 13.000 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 2.7692 | 1.0000 | 0.3077 | 0.7692 | 0.2308 | 0.7692 | 0.1538 |
| season | 0.20 | 76 | 91.000 | 31.000 | 76.000 | 41.000 | 117.000 | 8.000 | 3.0659 | 1.2857 | 0.3407 | 0.8352 | 0.4506 | 1.2857 | 0.0879 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3610 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4690 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.0537 |
| predicted_H | 0.8900 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1850 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2300 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.9054 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3610 | 0.2026 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.4690 | 0.2632 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.0537 | 3.0537 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 0.8900 | 1.3772 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1850 | 0.1038 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.1000 | 1.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.2300 | 1.1291 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.9054 | 0.9054 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 76 |
| Season rows before report date | 76 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 76 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 23 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 15 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 1 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 676879 |
| playerID | 676879 |
| playerName | Aaron Ashby |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.287 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.268 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 32.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.20475045 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.447155135 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.306 | 0.000 | -0.306 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.210 | 0.000 | -0.210 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.710 | 2.000 | -0.710 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.887 | 0.100 | 0.113 | 0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.000 | 0.000 | -1.000 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "682842",
"player_name": "Abner Uribe",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.3846 | 0.0000 | 1.3846 | 0.0000 | 1.3846 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 2.0000 | 1.4444 | 0.2222 | 1.3333 | 0.1111 | 1.1111 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 62 | 59.200 | 13.000 | 44.000 | 19.000 | 62.000 | 3.000 | 1.9609 | 1.0559 | 0.2179 | 0.7374 | 0.3184 | 1.0391 | 0.0503 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1830 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2340 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.1086 |
| predicted_H | 1.1640 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0500 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1370 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3467 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1830 | 0.0966 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2340 | 0.1235 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.1086 | 2.1086 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.1640 | 0.6145 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.0264 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.1370 | 0.6003 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3467 | 1.3467 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 62 |
| Season rows before report date | 62 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 62 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 13 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 1 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 16 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 8 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 682842 |
| playerID | 682842 |
| playerName | Abner Uribe |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.239 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.26 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.721875867 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.478825705 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.234 | 0.000 | -0.234 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.281 | 0.000 | 0.719 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.641 | 1.000 | 0.359 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.963 | 1.100 | 0.037 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.109 | 2.000 | 0.891 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656730",
"player_name": "Trevor Megill",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.100 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 3.3750 | 0.7500 | 0.3750 | 0.7500 | 0.0000 | 1.1250 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.200 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 4.6552 | 1.1379 | 0.5172 | 1.0345 | 0.1035 | 1.2414 | 0.1035 |
| season | 0.20 | 63 | 63.000 | 14.000 | 39.000 | 15.000 | 71.000 | 1.000 | 2.0000 | 0.8571 | 0.2222 | 0.6190 | 0.2381 | 1.1270 | 0.0159 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1660 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4270 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.8433 |
| predicted_H | 0.8680 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0690 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1010 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0340 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1660 | 0.0884 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.4270 | 0.6948 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.8433 | 3.8433 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.8680 | 0.9297 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.0690 | 0.5042 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 1.1010 | 1.5212 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0340 | 1.0340 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 64 |
| Season rows before report date | 64 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 63 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 17 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 13 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 6 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20261003_SD@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656730 |
| playerID | 656730 |
| playerName | Trevor Megill |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-10-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 28.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.208 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.252 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 81.208537368 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.306671184 |