MLB Prediction System

Metric Evolution & Audit

Every number that moved, the stage that moved it, the input it used, and the arithmetic that proves it

Slate 20261004Games 2Checks 331Schema metric_evolution_report_v1Built 2026-10-06 17:18Z

Verdict across the slate

331 invariants checked across 2 games: NO DEFECT FOUND

How to read this, and what a defect looks like

Every figure below is shown with the arithmetic that produced it and a verdict beside it, so a disagreement can be pointed at a specific line rather than at the system as a whole.

Stage chain. Each game lists every stage that touched the score, the score after it, and whether it changed the target. Most stages move nothing on most games; a chain that showed only movement would misrepresent it. A stage reporting a delta while changed_target is false computed an adjustment and did not apply it, which is normal and is stated.
Blend arithmetic. The KPI blend must satisfy blended = baseline + weight x (kpi_only - baseline) for all three targets. A FAIL here means the layer reported a number it did not compute.
Rounding. Published integers must be the rounding of the blended runs under the documented tie rule. A FAIL means the published score and the continuous line describe different games.
Log5 additivity. For every player metric, own skill plus opponent plus the Log5 remainder must equal the total against the league, exactly. A FAIL means the decomposition is not a decomposition.
Direction. A green delta helps the subject, a red one hurts him. Strikeouts invert for a hitter. If an elite arm's opponent shows green strikeouts, the orientation is wrong and the whole player section is suspect.
Measured versus published. The KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The per-player metric adjustments here are a measurement of the same catalog at player level, not what the pipeline published; the one club-wide ratio the pipeline actually applied to hitter lines is printed beside them.
Integer versus continuous. The integer player line is a simulation draw reconciled to the box score. The continuous expected_* beside it is the model's own view and is the rankable quantity. Judging the model by the integer is how a working model looks broken.

Slate overview

Game	Published	p(home)	Stages	Stages that moved it	KPI applied	Δ away runs	Δ home runs	Simulation draw chosen on	0-out starter
20261004_ATL@LAD	3 - 4	0.5149	7	0	no	-	-	-	no
20261004_SD@MIL	4 - 5	0.5538	7	0	no	-	-	-	no

KPI model in force. candidate 20261005T125039Z_f5114dc0, 48 features built from 40 registered KPIs, blend weights {"home_runs": 0.44, "away_runs": 0.78, "home_win": 0.0}, frozen evaluation ends 2026-09-26. A target whose weight is zero contributes nothing by construction: the winner probability carries weight zero while its walk-forward verdict is inconclusive, so every win-probability movement below is expected to be exactly zero.

Per game

20261004_ATL@LAD — published 3-4, 168 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20261004_ATL@LAD__20261005T003846Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-10-05T00:38:46, first pitch 2026-10-05T00:00:00.
Published 3 - 4 with p(home) 0.514946. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 0 of 6 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	3.87520551611148 - 5.056871594442494	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	away -0.2890; home +0.4298 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

A stage reporting its own adjustment while Changed target reads no computed a movement that a later reconciliation absorbed, or that rounded away at the integer score. That is recorded rather than hidden.

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

ATL against Chris Sale (LHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to ATL hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 19.6125 of 35.793 projected batters (54.8%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 45.2%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.867 → 0.812	-0.055	0.2169	0.2212n=457 Average	0.2029n=173 Good	0.2071	+0.019	-0.061	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.936 at 0.548 share (log5 0.2071 vs his 0.2029) + bullpen x0.9369 at 0.452 share (log5 0.2072 vs pen 0.2031) = x0.9364 \| starter alone would have been -0.056
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.113 → 1.376	+0.264	0.2212	0.2190n=457 Average	0.2873n=173 Very good	0.2847	-0.009	+0.290	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.2998 at 0.548 share (log5 0.2847 vs his 0.2873) + bullpen x1.1605 at 0.452 share (log5 0.2542 vs pen 0.2566) = x1.2368 \| starter alone would have been +0.334
		Walkswhole staff	0.522 → 0.537	+0.015	0.0889	0.1104n=457 Good	0.0908n=173 Average	0.1126	+0.094	+0.008	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0205 at 0.548 share (log5 0.1126 vs his 0.0908) + bullpen x1.0397 at 0.452 share (log5 0.1148 vs pen 0.0925) = x1.0292 \| starter alone would have been +0.011
		Home runswhole staff	0.190 → 0.153	-0.037	0.0304	0.0389n=457 Good	0.0219n=173 Very good	0.0281	+0.037	-0.037	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.7226 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0281 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9076 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0353 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.8062 \| starter alone would have been -0.053
Drake Baldwin	C	Hitswhole staff	1.002 → 0.940	-0.062	0.2169	0.2374n=598 Very good	0.2029n=173 Good	0.2225	+0.092	-0.062	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9373 at 0.548 share (log5 0.2225 vs his 0.2029) + bullpen x0.9381 at 0.452 share (log5 0.2227 vs pen 0.2031) = x0.9377 \| starter alone would have been -0.063
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.241 → 1.540	+0.298	0.2212	0.2099n=598 Average	0.2873n=173 Very good	0.2738	-0.050	+0.295	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x1.3043 at 0.548 share (log5 0.2738 vs his 0.2873) + bullpen x1.1626 at 0.452 share (log5 0.2441 vs pen 0.2566) = x1.2402 \| starter alone would have been +0.378
		Walkswhole staff	0.381 → 0.392	+0.011	0.0889	0.0915n=598 Average	0.0908n=173 Average	0.0934	+0.011	+0.008	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0209 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0934 vs his 0.0908) + bullpen x1.0406 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0952 vs pen 0.0925) = x1.0298 \| starter alone would have been +0.008
		Home runswhole staff	0.171 → 0.138	-0.033	0.0304	0.0371n=598 Good	0.0219n=173 Very good	0.0268	+0.030	-0.038	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.7223 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0268 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9075 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0337 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.806 \| starter alone would have been -0.047
Mauricio Dubón	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.892 → 0.837	-0.056	0.2169	0.2382n=603 Very good	0.2029n=173 Good	0.2233	+0.084	-0.055	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9373 at 0.548 share (log5 0.2233 vs his 0.2029) + bullpen x0.9382 at 0.452 share (log5 0.2235 vs pen 0.2031) = x0.9377 \| starter alone would have been -0.056
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.664 → 0.846	+0.181	0.2212	0.1270n=603 Very good	0.2873n=173 Very good	0.1711	-0.370	+0.260	-0.086 ok
		split	starter x1.3474 at 0.548 share (log5 0.1711 vs his 0.2873) + bullpen x1.1828 at 0.452 share (log5 0.1502 vs pen 0.2566) = x1.273 \| starter alone would have been +0.231
		Walkswhole staff	0.284 → 0.293	+0.009	0.0889	0.0631n=603 Below average	0.0908n=173 Average	0.0645	-0.101	+0.007	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0216 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0645 vs his 0.0908) + bullpen x1.0419 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0658 vs pen 0.0925) = x1.0308 \| starter alone would have been +0.006
		Home runswhole staff	0.112 → 0.090	-0.022	0.0304	0.0231n=603 Below average	0.0219n=173 Very good	0.0166	-0.029	-0.033	+0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.7194 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0166 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9063 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0209 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.8039 \| starter alone would have been -0.031
Sean Murphy	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.723 → 0.677	-0.046	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2029n=173 Good	0.2029	0	-0.051	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9357 at 0.548 share (log5 0.2029 vs his 0.2029) + bullpen x0.9365 at 0.452 share (log5 0.2031 vs pen 0.2031) = x0.9361 \| starter alone would have been -0.046
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.206 → 1.491	+0.285	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2873n=173 Very good	0.2873	0	+0.241	0 ok
		split	starter x1.2987 at 0.548 share (log5 0.2873 vs his 0.2873) + bullpen x1.1599 at 0.452 share (log5 0.2566 vs pen 0.2566) = x1.2359 \| starter alone would have been +0.360
		Walkswhole staff	0.369 → 0.381	+0.011	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0908n=173 Average	0.0908	0	+0.007	0 ok
		split	starter x1.021 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0908 vs his 0.0908) + bullpen x1.0407 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0925 vs pen 0.0925) = x1.0299 \| starter alone would have been +0.008
		Home runswhole staff	0.135 → 0.109	-0.026	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0219n=173 Very good	0.0219	0	-0.031	0 ok
		split	starter x0.7209 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0219 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9069 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0276 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.805 \| starter alone would have been -0.038
Ozzie Albies	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.838 → 0.784	-0.054	0.2169	0.2154n=667 Average	0.2029n=173 Good	0.2015	-0.006	-0.055	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9356 at 0.548 share (log5 0.2015 vs his 0.2029) + bullpen x0.9364 at 0.452 share (log5 0.2017 vs pen 0.2031) = x0.936 \| starter alone would have been -0.054
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.792 → 0.999	+0.207	0.2212	0.1576n=667 Good	0.2873n=173 Very good	0.2098	-0.253	+0.263	-0.055 ok
		split	starter x1.3312 at 0.548 share (log5 0.2098 vs his 0.2873) + bullpen x1.1753 at 0.452 share (log5 0.1852 vs pen 0.2566) = x1.2607 \| starter alone would have been +0.262
		Walkswhole staff	0.337 → 0.347	+0.010	0.0889	0.0707n=667 Below average	0.0908n=173 Average	0.0722	-0.072	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0214 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0722 vs his 0.0908) + bullpen x1.0415 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0737 vs pen 0.0925) = x1.0305 \| starter alone would have been +0.007
		Home runswhole staff	0.135 → 0.109	-0.026	0.0304	0.0322n=667 Average	0.0219n=173 Very good	0.0233	+0.007	-0.034	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.7213 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0233 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9071 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0293 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.8053 \| starter alone would have been -0.038
Matt Olson	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.857 → 0.802	-0.054	0.2169	0.2232n=682 Average	0.2029n=173 Good	0.2089	+0.026	-0.058	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9362 at 0.548 share (log5 0.2089 vs his 0.2029) + bullpen x0.937 at 0.452 share (log5 0.2091 vs pen 0.2031) = x0.9366 \| starter alone would have been -0.055
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.332 → 1.636	+0.304	0.2212	0.2406n=682 Average	0.2873n=173 Very good	0.3101	+0.080	+0.275	+0.015 ok
		split	starter x1.2891 at 0.548 share (log5 0.3101 vs his 0.2873) + bullpen x1.1553 at 0.452 share (log5 0.2779 vs pen 0.2566) = x1.2286 \| starter alone would have been +0.385
		Walkswhole staff	0.361 → 0.372	+0.011	0.0889	0.0919n=682 Average	0.0908n=173 Average	0.0938	+0.012	+0.008	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0209 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0938 vs his 0.0908) + bullpen x1.0405 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0956 vs pen 0.0925) = x1.0298 \| starter alone would have been +0.008
		Home runswhole staff	0.196 → 0.159	-0.038	0.0304	0.0518n=682 Very good	0.0219n=173 Very good	0.0376	+0.089	-0.035	-0.024 ok
		split	starter x0.7254 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0376 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9088 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0471 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.8083 \| starter alone would have been -0.054
Michael Harris II	CF	Hitswhole staff	1.008 → 0.947	-0.062	0.2169	0.2533n=608 Very good	0.2029n=173 Good	0.2377	+0.145	-0.056	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.9385 at 0.548 share (log5 0.2377 vs his 0.2029) + bullpen x0.9393 at 0.452 share (log5 0.2379 vs pen 0.2031) = x0.9389 \| starter alone would have been -0.062
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.062 → 1.325	+0.263	0.2212	0.1915n=608 Average	0.2873n=173 Very good	0.2516	-0.118	+0.264	-0.024 ok
		split	starter x1.3137 at 0.548 share (log5 0.2516 vs his 0.2873) + bullpen x1.1671 at 0.452 share (log5 0.2235 vs pen 0.2566) = x1.2474 \| starter alone would have been +0.333
		Walkswhole staff	0.170 → 0.176	+0.005	0.0889	0.0462n=608 Poor	0.0908n=173 Average	0.0472	-0.170	+0.007	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.022 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0472 vs his 0.0908) + bullpen x1.0427 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0482 vs pen 0.0925) = x1.0314 \| starter alone would have been +0.004
		Home runswhole staff	0.168 → 0.135	-0.033	0.0304	0.0379n=608 Good	0.0219n=173 Very good	0.0274	+0.030	-0.034	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.7224 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0274 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9075 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0344 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.8061 \| starter alone would have been -0.047
Austin Riley	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.679 → 0.635	-0.044	0.2169	0.2034n=614 Below average	0.2029n=173 Good	0.1901	-0.049	-0.051	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9347 at 0.548 share (log5 0.1901 vs his 0.2029) + bullpen x0.9355 at 0.452 share (log5 0.1903 vs pen 0.2031) = x0.9351 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.369 → 1.647	+0.279	0.2212	0.3090n=614 Poor	0.2873n=173 Very good	0.3882	+0.322	+0.242	+0.048 ok
		split	starter x1.2564 at 0.548 share (log5 0.3882 vs his 0.2873) + bullpen x1.1394 at 0.452 share (log5 0.3521 vs pen 0.2566) = x1.2035 \| starter alone would have been +0.351
		Walkswhole staff	0.336 → 0.346	+0.010	0.0889	0.0799n=614 Average	0.0908n=173 Average	0.0816	-0.033	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0212 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0816 vs his 0.0908) + bullpen x1.0411 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0832 vs pen 0.0925) = x1.0302 \| starter alone would have been +0.007
		Home runswhole staff	0.115 → 0.093	-0.022	0.0304	0.0308n=614 Average	0.0219n=173 Very good	0.0222	+0.001	-0.031	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.721 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0222 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9069 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0279 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.805 \| starter alone would have been -0.032
Lane Thomas	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.674 → 0.630	-0.043	0.2169	0.2079n=370 Below average	0.2029n=173 Good	0.1944	-0.032	-0.050	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.935 at 0.548 share (log5 0.1944 vs his 0.2029) + bullpen x0.9359 at 0.452 share (log5 0.1946 vs pen 0.2031) = x0.9354 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.078 → 1.323	+0.244	0.2212	0.2455n=370 Average	0.2873n=173 Very good	0.3158	+0.086	+0.235	+0.015 ok
		split	starter x1.2867 at 0.548 share (log5 0.3158 vs his 0.2873) + bullpen x1.1542 at 0.452 share (log5 0.2833 vs pen 0.2566) = x1.2268 \| starter alone would have been +0.309
		Walkswhole staff	0.409 → 0.421	+0.012	0.0889	0.1096n=370 Good	0.0908n=173 Average	0.1118	+0.073	+0.007	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0205 at 0.548 share (log5 0.1118 vs his 0.0908) + bullpen x1.0397 at 0.452 share (log5 0.1139 vs pen 0.0925) = x1.0292 \| starter alone would have been +0.008
		Home runswhole staff	0.105 → 0.085	-0.021	0.0304	0.0300n=370 Average	0.0219n=173 Very good	0.0216	-0.001	-0.030	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.7208 at 0.548 share (log5 0.0216 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9069 at 0.452 share (log5 0.0272 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.8049 \| starter alone would have been -0.029
STARTER Ray Kerr16.3939 BF	Starter	Hits	2.170 → 2.246	+0.077	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22459/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2245	0	+0.126	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.329 → 1.126	-0.203	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.18759/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1875	0	-0.553	0 ok
		Walks	1.318 → 1.436	+0.118	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0969	0	+0.131	0 ok
		Home runs	0.000 → 0.000	0	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03269/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0326	0	+0.037	0 ok
RELIEVER Didier Fuentes3.6026 BF	Setup Man	Hits	1.062 → 1.100	+0.038	0.2169	0.2119n=290 Average	0.22459/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2195	-0.018	+0.028	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.026 → 0.880	-0.146	0.2212	0.2802n=290 Very good	0.18759/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2403	+0.213	-0.121	-0.022 ok
		Walks	0.198 → 0.215	+0.018	0.0889	0.0760n=290 Good	0.09699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0829	-0.047	+0.029	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.175 → 0.188	+0.013	0.0304	0.0266n=290 Good	0.03269/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0285	-0.014	+0.008	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER AJ Smith-Shawver3.3134 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.724 → 0.750	+0.026	0.2169	0.2186n=144 Average	0.22459/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2263	+0.006	+0.025	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.661 → 0.558	-0.103	0.2212	0.1996n=144 Below average	0.18759/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1684	-0.072	-0.112	+0.009 ok
		Walks	0.330 → 0.359	+0.029	0.0889	0.0995n=144 Below average	0.09699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1083	+0.035	+0.026	+0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.115 → 0.124	+0.009	0.0304	0.0348n=144 Below average	0.03269/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0374	+0.015	+0.007	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Brent Suter2.4414 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.545 → 0.564	+0.019	0.2169	0.2232n=377 Average	0.22459/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2310	+0.015	+0.019	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.511 → 0.432	-0.079	0.2212	0.2094n=377 Average	0.18759/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1771	-0.029	-0.082	+0.003 ok
		Walks	0.183 → 0.199	+0.017	0.0889	0.0748n=377 Good	0.09699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0817	-0.034	+0.019	-0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.067 → 0.072	+0.005	0.0304	0.0274n=377 Average	0.03269/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0294	-0.007	+0.005	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Raisel Iglesias2.4414 BF	Closer	Hits	0.806 → 0.835	+0.029	0.2169	0.2121n=233 Average	0.22459/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2196	-0.012	+0.019	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.953 → 0.813	-0.140	0.2212	0.2546n=233 Good	0.18759/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2172	+0.082	-0.082	-0.009 ok
		Walks	0.207 → 0.226	+0.019	0.0889	0.0794n=233 Average	0.09699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0866	-0.023	+0.019	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.088 → 0.094	+0.006	0.0304	0.0288n=233 Average	0.03269/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0309	-0.004	+0.005	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Dylan Lee2.0926 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.808 → 0.837	+0.029	0.2169	0.2007n=253 Good	0.22459/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2079	-0.034	+0.016	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.059 → 0.907	-0.151	0.2212	0.2783n=253 Very good	0.18759/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2385	+0.119	-0.071	-0.013 ok
		Walks	0.220 → 0.240	+0.020	0.0889	0.0755n=253 Good	0.09699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0824	-0.028	+0.017	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.167 → 0.180	+0.012	0.0304	0.0237n=253 Very good	0.03269/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0254	-0.014	+0.005	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Victor Mederos2.0352 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.418 → 0.433	+0.015	0.2169	0.2054n=148 Good	0.22459/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2127	-0.023	+0.016	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.461 → 0.392	-0.070	0.2212	0.2267n=148 Average	0.18759/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1924	+0.011	-0.069	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.187 → 0.203	+0.017	0.0889	0.0917n=148 Average	0.09699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0999	+0.006	+0.016	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.050 → 0.054	+0.004	0.0304	0.0245n=148 Very good	0.03269/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0263	-0.012	+0.005	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Grant Holmes1.6269 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.352 → 0.364	+0.012	0.2169	0.2162n=607 Average	0.22459/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2238	-0.001	+0.013	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.302 → 0.255	-0.048	0.2212	0.1859n=607 Below average	0.18759/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1565	-0.058	-0.055	+0.007 ok
		Walks	0.149 → 0.162	+0.013	0.0889	0.0916n=607 Average	0.09699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0997	+0.004	+0.013	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.055 → 0.059	+0.004	0.0304	0.0338n=607 Below average	0.03269/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0362	+0.005	+0.004	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Dylan Dodd1.6269 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.314 → 0.326	+0.011	0.2169	0.1933n=186 Very good	0.22459/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2003	-0.038	+0.013	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.426 → 0.364	-0.062	0.2212	0.2620n=186 Good	0.18759/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2238	+0.066	-0.055	-0.007 ok
		Walks	0.133 → 0.145	+0.012	0.0889	0.0815n=186 Average	0.09699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0889	-0.012	+0.013	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.048 → 0.051	+0.004	0.0304	0.0294n=186 Average	0.03269/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0315	-0.002	+0.004	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Robert Suarez0.8719 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.180 → 0.187	+0.006	0.2169	0.2070n=130 Good	0.22459/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2144	-0.009	+0.007	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.181 → 0.153	-0.028	0.2212	0.2081n=130 Average	0.18759/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1759	-0.011	-0.029	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.061 → 0.066	+0.006	0.0889	0.0696n=130 Good	0.09699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0760	-0.017	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.022 → 0.024	+0.002	0.0304	0.0253n=130 Good	0.03269/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0271	-0.004	+0.002	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Chris Sale0.4657 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.096 → 0.100	+0.004	0.2169	0.2069n=628 Good	0.22459/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2143	-0.005	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.137 → 0.118	-0.019	0.2212	0.2947n=628 Very good	0.18759/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2534	+0.034	-0.016	-0.004 ok
		Walks	0.027 → 0.029	+0.003	0.0889	0.0573n=628 Very good	0.09699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0626	-0.015	+0.004	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.010 → 0.011	+0.001	0.0304	0.0219n=628 Very good	0.03269/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0236	-0.004	+0.001	-0.000 ok

LAD against Roki Sasaki (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to LAD hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 16.3939 of 36.91 projected batters (44.4%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 55.6%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is OUTSIDE that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Shohei Ohtani	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.896 → 0.883	-0.013	0.2169	0.2255n=613 Good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2255	+0.037	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.2255 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9737 at 0.556 share (log5 0.2195 vs pen 0.2111) = x0.9854 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.133 → 1.180	+0.048	0.2212	0.2445n=613 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2445	+0.101	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.2445 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0759 at 0.556 share (log5 0.2630 vs pen 0.2386) = x1.0422 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.444 → 0.427	-0.017	0.0889	0.1251n=613 Very good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1251	+0.158	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.1251 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.931 at 0.556 share (log5 0.1165 vs pen 0.0825) = x0.9616 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.190 → 0.184	-0.007	0.0304	0.0434n=613 Very good	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0434	+0.056	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.0434 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9354 at 0.556 share (log5 0.0406 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.9641 \| starter alone would have been 0
Will Smith	C	Hitswhole staff	0.802 → 0.790	-0.012	0.2169	0.2185n=276 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2185	+0.006	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.2185 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9734 at 0.556 share (log5 0.2127 vs pen 0.2111) = x0.9852 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.702 → 0.735	+0.033	0.2212	0.1718n=276 Good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1718	-0.202	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.1718 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0839 at 0.556 share (log5 0.1862 vs pen 0.2386) = x1.0466 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.420 → 0.404	-0.016	0.0889	0.1129n=276 Good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1129	+0.098	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.1129 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9301 at 0.556 share (log5 0.1050 vs pen 0.0825) = x0.9611 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.145 → 0.140	-0.005	0.0304	0.0334n=276 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0334	+0.012	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.0334 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9348 at 0.556 share (log5 0.0312 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.9638 \| starter alone would have been 0
Freddie Freeman	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.913 → 0.900	-0.013	0.2169	0.2394n=652 Very good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2394	+0.093	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.2394 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9741 at 0.556 share (log5 0.2332 vs pen 0.2111) = x0.9856 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.798 → 0.835	+0.037	0.2212	0.1781n=652 Good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1781	-0.178	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.1781 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0832 at 0.556 share (log5 0.1929 vs pen 0.2386) = x1.0462 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.345 → 0.331	-0.014	0.0889	0.0993n=652 Average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0993	+0.043	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.0993 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9291 at 0.556 share (log5 0.0923 vs pen 0.0825) = x0.9606 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.111 → 0.107	-0.004	0.0304	0.0262n=652 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0262	-0.017	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.0262 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9344 at 0.556 share (log5 0.0245 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.9635 \| starter alone would have been 0
Mookie Betts	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.878 → 0.865	-0.013	0.2169	0.2268n=523 Good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2268	+0.042	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.2268 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9737 at 0.556 share (log5 0.2209 vs pen 0.2111) = x0.9854 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.513 → 0.538	+0.026	0.2212	0.1168n=523 Very good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1168	-0.443	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.1168 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0899 at 0.556 share (log5 0.1273 vs pen 0.2386) = x1.05 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.358 → 0.344	-0.014	0.0889	0.0866n=523 Average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0866	-0.010	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.0866 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9281 at 0.556 share (log5 0.0804 vs pen 0.0825) = x0.96 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.181 → 0.175	-0.006	0.0304	0.0394n=523 Good	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0394	+0.038	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.0394 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9352 at 0.556 share (log5 0.0369 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.964 \| starter alone would have been 0
Miguel Rojas	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.678 → 0.668	-0.010	0.2169	0.2246n=252 Good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2246	+0.025	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.2246 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9736 at 0.556 share (log5 0.2187 vs pen 0.2111) = x0.9853 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.434 → 0.455	+0.021	0.2212	0.1256n=252 Very good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1256	-0.307	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.1256 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0889 at 0.556 share (log5 0.1368 vs pen 0.2386) = x1.0494 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.208 → 0.199	-0.008	0.0889	0.0717n=252 Below average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0717	-0.056	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.0717 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.927 at 0.556 share (log5 0.0664 vs pen 0.0825) = x0.9594 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.084 → 0.081	-0.003	0.0304	0.0233n=252 Below average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0233	-0.023	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.0233 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9342 at 0.556 share (log5 0.0218 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.9634 \| starter alone would have been 0
Teoscar Hernández	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.829 → 0.817	-0.012	0.2169	0.2292n=487 Good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2292	+0.049	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.2292 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9738 at 0.556 share (log5 0.2231 vs pen 0.2111) = x0.9854 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.087 → 1.131	+0.044	0.2212	0.2684n=487 Below average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2684	+0.186	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.2684 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0734 at 0.556 share (log5 0.2881 vs pen 0.2386) = x1.0408 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.328 → 0.315	-0.013	0.0889	0.0868n=487 Average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0868	-0.009	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.0868 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9281 at 0.556 share (log5 0.0805 vs pen 0.0825) = x0.96 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.143 → 0.137	-0.005	0.0304	0.0320n=487 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0320	+0.006	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.0320 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9347 at 0.556 share (log5 0.0299 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.9637 \| starter alone would have been 0
Kyle Tucker	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.771 → 0.759	-0.011	0.2169	0.2076n=622 Below average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2076	-0.037	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.2076 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9731 at 0.556 share (log5 0.2020 vs pen 0.2111) = x0.985 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.747 → 0.782	+0.035	0.2212	0.1711n=622 Good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1711	-0.199	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.1711 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0839 at 0.556 share (log5 0.1855 vs pen 0.2386) = x1.0466 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.370 → 0.355	-0.014	0.0889	0.1195n=622 Very good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1195	+0.121	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.1195 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9305 at 0.556 share (log5 0.1112 vs pen 0.0825) = x0.9614 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.119 → 0.114	-0.004	0.0304	0.0282n=622 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0282	-0.009	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.0282 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9345 at 0.556 share (log5 0.0264 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.9636 \| starter alone would have been 0
Andy Pages	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.795 → 0.783	-0.011	0.2169	0.2323n=569 Good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2323	+0.058	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.2323 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9739 at 0.556 share (log5 0.2263 vs pen 0.2111) = x0.9855 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.772 → 0.807	+0.035	0.2212	0.1971n=569 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1971	-0.091	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.1971 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0811 at 0.556 share (log5 0.2131 vs pen 0.2386) = x1.0451 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.318 → 0.306	-0.013	0.0889	0.0866n=569 Average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0866	-0.009	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.0866 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9281 at 0.556 share (log5 0.0804 vs pen 0.0825) = x0.96 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.152 → 0.147	-0.005	0.0304	0.0372n=569 Good	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0372	+0.026	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.0372 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9351 at 0.556 share (log5 0.0348 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.9639 \| starter alone would have been 0
Tommy Edman	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.719 → 0.708	-0.011	0.2169	0.2160n=326 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2160	-0.003	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.2160 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9733 at 0.556 share (log5 0.2102 vs pen 0.2111) = x0.9852 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.768 → 0.803	+0.034	0.2212	0.2049n=326 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2049	-0.058	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.2049 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0802 at 0.556 share (log5 0.2213 vs pen 0.2386) = x1.0446 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.260 → 0.250	-0.011	0.0889	0.0732n=326 Below average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0732	-0.056	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.0732 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9272 at 0.556 share (log5 0.0679 vs pen 0.0825) = x0.9595 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.107 → 0.103	-0.004	0.0304	0.0272n=326 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0272	-0.012	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.444 share (log5 0.0272 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9344 at 0.556 share (log5 0.0254 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.9635 \| starter alone would have been 0
STARTER Blake Snell19.6125 BF	Starter	Hits	3.731 → 3.867	+0.137	0.2169	0.2029n=173 Good	0.22478/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2104	-0.274	+0.153	-0.007 ok
		Strikeouts	5.253 → 5.062	-0.191	0.2212	0.2873n=173 Very good	0.21258/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2768	+1.296	-0.172	-0.033 ok
		Walks	1.692 → 1.593	-0.099	0.0889	0.0908n=173 Average	0.08378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0855	+0.037	-0.102	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.000 → 0.000	0	0.0304	0.0219n=173 Very good	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0253	-0.166	+0.090	-0.025 ok
RELIEVER Tanner Scott3.1584 BF	Closer	Hits	0.765 → 0.793	+0.028	0.2169	0.2051n=251 Good	0.22478/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2126	-0.037	+0.025	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.093 → 1.054	-0.039	0.2212	0.3011n=251 Very good	0.21258/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2904	+0.253	-0.028	-0.006 ok
		Walks	0.240 → 0.226	-0.014	0.0889	0.0710n=251 Good	0.08378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0668	-0.057	-0.016	+0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.111 → 0.127	+0.017	0.0304	0.0252n=251 Good	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0290	-0.016	+0.015	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Alex Vesia2.542 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.449 → 0.466	+0.017	0.2169	0.1766n=237 Very good	0.22478/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1833	-0.102	+0.020	-0.003 ok
		Strikeouts	0.735 → 0.709	-0.027	0.2212	0.2892n=237 Very good	0.21258/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2787	+0.173	-0.022	-0.004 ok
		Walks	0.296 → 0.280	-0.017	0.0889	0.1166n=237 Poor	0.08378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1100	+0.070	-0.013	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.065 → 0.075	+0.010	0.0304	0.0257n=237 Good	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0296	-0.012	+0.012	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Evan Phillips2.3882 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.733 → 0.759	+0.026	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22478/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2247	0	+0.019	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.132 → 1.087	-0.045	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21258/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2125	0	-0.021	0 ok
		Walks	0.271 → 0.255	-0.016	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0837	0	-0.012	0 ok
		Home runs	0.160 → 0.184	+0.024	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	0	+0.011	0 ok
RELIEVER Brock Stewart1.9255 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.418 → 0.433	+0.015	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22478/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2247	0	+0.015	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.426 → 0.409	-0.017	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21258/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2125	0	-0.017	0 ok
		Walks	0.171 → 0.161	-0.010	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0837	0	-0.010	0 ok
		Home runs	0.059 → 0.067	+0.009	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	0	+0.009	0 ok
RELIEVER Edgardo Henriquez1.8494 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.348 → 0.361	+0.013	0.2169	0.1880n=242 Very good	0.22478/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1950	-0.053	+0.014	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.509 → 0.491	-0.019	0.2212	0.2754n=242 Good	0.21258/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2653	+0.100	-0.016	-0.003 ok
		Walks	0.181 → 0.170	-0.011	0.0889	0.0976n=242 Average	0.08378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0920	+0.016	-0.010	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.039 → 0.045	+0.006	0.0304	0.0212n=242 Very good	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0244	-0.017	+0.009	-0.003 ok
RELIEVER Kris Bubic1.6957 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.338 → 0.351	+0.012	0.2169	0.1996n=226 Good	0.22478/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2069	-0.029	+0.013	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.408 → 0.393	-0.016	0.2212	0.2408n=226 Average	0.21258/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2315	+0.033	-0.015	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.177 → 0.167	-0.010	0.0889	0.1043n=226 Below average	0.08378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0983	+0.026	-0.009	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.044 → 0.051	+0.007	0.0304	0.0261n=226 Good	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0301	-0.007	+0.008	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Edwin Díaz1.5404 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	1.029 → 1.066	+0.037	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22478/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2247	0	+0.012	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.339 → 1.286	-0.053	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21258/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2125	0	-0.013	0 ok
		Walks	0.484 → 0.456	-0.028	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0837	0	-0.008	0 ok
		Home runs	0.131 → 0.151	+0.020	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	0	+0.007	0 ok
RELIEVER Roki Sasaki1.0792 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.234 → 0.242	+0.008	0.2169	0.2166n=522 Average	0.22478/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2244	-0.000	+0.008	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.252 → 0.242	-0.010	0.2212	0.2337n=522 Average	0.21258/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2246	+0.013	-0.009	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.099 → 0.093	-0.006	0.0889	0.0913n=522 Average	0.08378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0859	+0.003	-0.006	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.040 → 0.046	+0.006	0.0304	0.0367n=522 Poor	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0423	+0.007	+0.005	+0.001 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Ray Kerr	Starter	16.4	5.0	4.302	2 / 2.170	4 / 1.329	0 / 1.318	1 / 0.000	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	4.2	1.0	0.993	1 / 1.062	1 / 1.026	0 / 0.198	0 / 0.317	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	4.0	1.1	0.993	0 / 0.806	1 / 0.953	0 / 0.207	0 / 0.217	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.0	0.2	0.993	2 / 0.808	0 / 1.059	2 / 0.220	3 / 0.402	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Blake Snell	Starter	19.6	5.1	4.730	2 / 3.731	9 / 5.253	3 / 1.692	1 / 0.776	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.6	1.0	1.014	2 / 1.029	1 / 1.339	0 / 0.484	1 / 0.611	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Evan Phillips	Setup Man	4.0	1.1	1.014	2 / 0.733	1 / 1.132	0 / 0.271	1 / 0.341	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Tanner Scott	Closer	4.0	1.1	1.014	0 / 0.765	2 / 1.093	0 / 0.240	0 / 0.337	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity152 checks	PASS	152 of 152 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.302
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Ray Kerr projected 16.4 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.73
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Blake Snell projected 19.6 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

20261004_SD@MIL — published 4-5, 163 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20261004_SD@MIL__20261004T203741Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-10-04T20:37:41, first pitch 2026-10-04T20:00:00.
Published 4 - 5 with p(home) 0.553789. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 0 of 6 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	3.806406525760892 - 5.00975768773032	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, season_quality_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	away -0.1652; home +0.2946 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

SD against Joe Musgrove (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to SD hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 21.6802 of 37.739 projected batters (57.5%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 42.5%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Ty France	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.918 → 0.831	-0.087	0.2169	0.2398n=500 Very good	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.2111	+0.094	-0.110	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.8802 at 0.575 share (log5 0.2111 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.94 at 0.425 share (log5 0.2254 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.9056 \| starter alone would have been -0.110
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.173 → 1.416	+0.243	0.2212	0.2165n=500 Average	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.2765	-0.019	+0.251	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.2774 at 0.575 share (log5 0.2765 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.1122 at 0.425 share (log5 0.2407 vs pen 0.2459) = x1.2071 \| starter alone would have been +0.325
		Walkswhole staff	0.278 → 0.234	-0.044	0.0889	0.0769n=500 Below average	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0530	-0.050	-0.112	+0.014 ok
		split	starter x0.6901 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0530 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0495 at 0.425 share (log5 0.0807 vs pen 0.0933) = x0.843 \| starter alone would have been -0.086
		Home runswhole staff	0.150 → 0.153	+0.003	0.0304	0.0380n=500 Good	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0426	+0.031	+0.015	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.121 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0426 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8821 at 0.425 share (log5 0.0335 vs pen 0.0268) = x1.0193 \| starter alone would have been +0.018
Manny Machado	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.784 → 0.707	-0.077	0.2169	0.2000n=677 Poor	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.1750	-0.072	-0.113	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.8747 at 0.575 share (log5 0.1750 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.9371 at 0.425 share (log5 0.1874 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.9013 \| starter alone would have been -0.098
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.158 → 1.399	+0.241	0.2212	0.2133n=677 Average	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.2727	-0.034	+0.259	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.2788 at 0.575 share (log5 0.2727 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.1127 at 0.425 share (log5 0.2373 vs pen 0.2459) = x1.2081 \| starter alone would have been +0.323
		Walkswhole staff	0.405 → 0.343	-0.062	0.0889	0.1088n=677 Good	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0759	+0.084	-0.116	-0.024 ok
		split	starter x0.6976 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0759 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0477 at 0.425 share (log5 0.1140 vs pen 0.0933) = x0.8466 \| starter alone would have been -0.122
		Home runswhole staff	0.165 → 0.168	+0.003	0.0304	0.0404n=677 Good	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0453	+0.043	+0.016	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.1206 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0453 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8824 at 0.425 share (log5 0.0357 vs pen 0.0268) = x1.0192 \| starter alone would have been +0.020
Gavin Sheets	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.624 → 0.562	-0.061	0.2169	0.2007n=419 Poor	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.1756	-0.055	-0.090	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8748 at 0.575 share (log5 0.1756 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.9372 at 0.425 share (log5 0.1881 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.9014 \| starter alone would have been -0.078
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.862 → 1.044	+0.182	0.2212	0.2048n=419 Average	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.2627	-0.056	+0.206	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x1.2827 at 0.575 share (log5 0.2627 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.114 at 0.425 share (log5 0.2281 vs pen 0.2459) = x1.2109 \| starter alone would have been +0.244
		Walkswhole staff	0.337 → 0.285	-0.052	0.0889	0.1107n=419 Good	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0773	+0.074	-0.092	-0.021 ok
		split	starter x0.698 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0773 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0476 at 0.425 share (log5 0.1160 vs pen 0.0933) = x0.8468 \| starter alone would have been -0.102
		Home runswhole staff	0.124 → 0.127	+0.002	0.0304	0.0366n=419 Good	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0411	+0.021	+0.013	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.1212 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0411 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.882 at 0.425 share (log5 0.0323 vs pen 0.0268) = x1.0194 \| starter alone would have been +0.015
Dustin Harris	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.875 → 0.790	-0.085	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.1902	0	-0.111	0 ok
		split	starter x0.877 at 0.575 share (log5 0.1902 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.9384 at 0.425 share (log5 0.2035 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.9031 \| starter alone would have been -0.108
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.813 → 0.980	+0.167	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.2821	0	+0.253	0 ok
		split	starter x1.2752 at 0.575 share (log5 0.2821 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.1114 at 0.425 share (log5 0.2459 vs pen 0.2459) = x1.2055 \| starter alone would have been +0.224
		Walkswhole staff	0.298 → 0.252	-0.046	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0616	0	-0.114	0 ok
		split	starter x0.6929 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0616 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0488 at 0.425 share (log5 0.0933 vs pen 0.0933) = x0.8443 \| starter alone would have been -0.091
		Home runswhole staff	0.078 → 0.080	+0.002	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0341	0	+0.015	0 ok
		split	starter x1.1221 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0341 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8813 at 0.425 share (log5 0.0268 vs pen 0.0268) = x1.0196 \| starter alone would have been +0.009
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.954 → 0.864	-0.090	0.2169	0.2416n=704 Very good	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.2127	+0.107	-0.115	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.8804 at 0.575 share (log5 0.2127 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.9402 at 0.425 share (log5 0.2272 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.9058 \| starter alone would have been -0.114
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.073 → 1.306	+0.233	0.2212	0.1870n=704 Good	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.2414	-0.148	+0.263	-0.028 ok
		split	starter x1.2908 at 0.575 share (log5 0.2414 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.1169 at 0.425 share (log5 0.2089 vs pen 0.2459) = x1.2168 \| starter alone would have been +0.312
		Walkswhole staff	0.338 → 0.286	-0.053	0.0889	0.0906n=704 Average	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0628	+0.007	-0.118	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.6933 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0628 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0487 at 0.425 share (log5 0.0950 vs pen 0.0933) = x0.8445 \| starter alone would have been -0.104
		Home runswhole staff	0.145 → 0.148	+0.003	0.0304	0.0341n=704 Average	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0383	+0.016	+0.016	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.1215 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0383 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8817 at 0.425 share (log5 0.0301 vs pen 0.0268) = x1.0195 \| starter alone would have been +0.018
Jackson Merrill	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.878 → 0.794	-0.084	0.2169	0.2277n=664 Good	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.2001	+0.045	-0.110	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8785 at 0.575 share (log5 0.2001 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.9392 at 0.425 share (log5 0.2139 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.9043 \| starter alone would have been -0.107
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.280 → 1.536	+0.256	0.2212	0.2396n=664 Average	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.3036	+0.076	+0.250	+0.013 ok
		split	starter x1.267 at 0.575 share (log5 0.3036 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.1085 at 0.425 share (log5 0.2656 vs pen 0.2459) = x1.1996 \| starter alone would have been +0.342
		Walkswhole staff	0.264 → 0.222	-0.042	0.0889	0.0659n=664 Below average	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0453	-0.095	-0.112	+0.028 ok
		split	starter x0.6876 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0453 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0501 at 0.425 share (log5 0.0692 vs pen 0.0933) = x0.8418 \| starter alone would have been -0.082
		Home runswhole staff	0.149 → 0.152	+0.003	0.0304	0.0367n=664 Good	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0411	+0.026	+0.015	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.1212 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0411 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.882 at 0.425 share (log5 0.0323 vs pen 0.0268) = x1.0194 \| starter alone would have been +0.018
Xander Bogaerts	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.708 → 0.638	-0.070	0.2169	0.2059n=606 Below average	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.1803	-0.041	-0.101	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8755 at 0.575 share (log5 0.1803 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.9375 at 0.425 share (log5 0.1931 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.9019 \| starter alone would have been -0.088
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.869 → 1.059	+0.190	0.2212	0.1829n=606 Good	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.2365	-0.144	+0.230	-0.028 ok
		split	starter x1.2927 at 0.575 share (log5 0.2365 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.1175 at 0.425 share (log5 0.2044 vs pen 0.2459) = x1.2182 \| starter alone would have been +0.254
		Walkswhole staff	0.390 → 0.330	-0.059	0.0889	0.1208n=606 Very good	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0846	+0.120	-0.103	-0.034 ok
		split	starter x0.7004 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0846 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0471 at 0.425 share (log5 0.1265 vs pen 0.0933) = x0.8479 \| starter alone would have been -0.117
		Home runswhole staff	0.088 → 0.090	+0.002	0.0304	0.0242n=606 Below average	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0271	-0.024	+0.014	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.1229 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0271 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8806 at 0.425 share (log5 0.0213 vs pen 0.0268) = x1.0198 \| starter alone would have been +0.011
Jake Cronenworth	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.696 → 0.628	-0.068	0.2169	0.2086n=425 Below average	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.1827	-0.030	-0.097	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8759 at 0.575 share (log5 0.1827 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.9377 at 0.425 share (log5 0.1956 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.9022 \| starter alone would have been -0.086
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.052 → 1.266	+0.214	0.2212	0.2275n=425 Average	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.2895	+0.023	+0.220	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.2724 at 0.575 share (log5 0.2895 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.1104 at 0.425 share (log5 0.2526 vs pen 0.2459) = x1.2035 \| starter alone would have been +0.287
		Walkswhole staff	0.302 → 0.255	-0.047	0.0889	0.0893n=425 Average	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0619	+0.001	-0.099	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.693 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0619 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0488 at 0.425 share (log5 0.0937 vs pen 0.0933) = x0.8444 \| starter alone would have been -0.093
		Home runswhole staff	0.076 → 0.077	+0.002	0.0304	0.0218n=425 Below average	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0245	-0.031	+0.013	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.1233 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0245 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8804 at 0.425 share (log5 0.0192 vs pen 0.0268) = x1.0199 \| starter alone would have been +0.009
Luis Campusano	C	Hitswhole staff	0.777 → 0.702	-0.075	0.2169	0.2215n=248 Average	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.1944	+0.018	-0.103	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8777 at 0.575 share (log5 0.1944 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.9387 at 0.425 share (log5 0.2080 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.9037 \| starter alone would have been -0.095
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.044 → 1.261	+0.217	0.2212	0.2149n=248 Average	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.2747	-0.024	+0.235	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.2781 at 0.575 share (log5 0.2747 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.1124 at 0.425 share (log5 0.2391 vs pen 0.2459) = x1.2076 \| starter alone would have been +0.290
		Walkswhole staff	0.363 → 0.308	-0.056	0.0889	0.1106n=248 Good	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0772	+0.084	-0.106	-0.024 ok
		split	starter x0.698 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0772 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0476 at 0.425 share (log5 0.1158 vs pen 0.0933) = x0.8468 \| starter alone would have been -0.110
		Home runswhole staff	0.113 → 0.115	+0.002	0.0304	0.0313n=248 Average	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0351	+0.004	+0.014	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.1219 at 0.575 share (log5 0.0351 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8814 at 0.425 share (log5 0.0276 vs pen 0.0268) = x1.0196 \| starter alone would have been +0.014
STARTER Michael King24.8059 BF	Starter	Hits	4.766 → 4.908	+0.142	0.2169	0.2015n=757 Good	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2075	-0.382	+0.157	-0.008 ok
		Strikeouts	4.712 → 4.754	+0.042	0.2212	0.2111n=757 Average	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2130	-0.251	+0.048	-0.002 ok
		Walks	2.244 → 2.596	+0.352	0.0889	0.0919n=757 Average	0.10299/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1063	+0.073	+0.348	+0.010 ok
		Home runs	0.519 → 0.480	-0.040	0.0304	0.0279n=757 Average	0.02819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0258	-0.062	-0.057	+0.005 ok
RELIEVER Adrian Morejon2.4048 BF	Setup Man	Hits	1.075 → 1.107	+0.032	0.2169	0.1993n=352 Good	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2053	-0.042	+0.015	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.324 → 1.335	+0.011	0.2212	0.2886n=352 Very good	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2909	+0.162	+0.005	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.426 → 0.493	+0.068	0.0889	0.0824n=352 Average	0.10299/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0955	-0.016	+0.034	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.112 → 0.103	-0.009	0.0304	0.0220n=352 Very good	0.02819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0203	-0.020	-0.006	+0.002 ok
RELIEVER Mason Miller2.2899 BF	Closer	Hits	0.656 → 0.676	+0.020	0.2169	0.1780n=272 Very good	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1835	-0.089	+0.015	-0.002 ok
		Strikeouts	1.621 → 1.632	+0.011	0.2212	0.4166n=272 Very good	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.4194	+0.448	+0.004	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.444 → 0.514	+0.070	0.0889	0.0931n=272 Average	0.10299/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1077	+0.010	+0.032	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.035 → 0.033	-0.003	0.0304	0.0231n=272 Very good	0.02819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0213	-0.017	-0.005	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Bradgley Rodriguez2.2525 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.465 → 0.478	+0.014	0.2169	0.2063n=301 Good	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2124	-0.024	+0.014	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.584 → 0.588	+0.005	0.2212	0.2590n=301 Good	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2612	+0.085	+0.004	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.167 → 0.194	+0.027	0.0889	0.0742n=301 Good	0.10299/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0861	-0.033	+0.032	-0.005 ok
		Home runs	0.059 → 0.054	-0.004	0.0304	0.0262n=301 Good	0.02819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0242	-0.009	-0.005	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Yuki Matsui1.8707 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.340 → 0.351	+0.010	0.2169	0.1819n=260 Very good	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1875	-0.065	+0.012	-0.002 ok
		Strikeouts	0.471 → 0.475	+0.004	0.2212	0.2520n=260 Good	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2542	+0.058	+0.004	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.224 → 0.258	+0.034	0.0889	0.1198n=260 Poor	0.10299/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1379	+0.058	+0.026	+0.008 ok
		Home runs	0.054 → 0.050	-0.004	0.0304	0.0291n=260 Average	0.02819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0269	-0.002	-0.004	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER David Morgan1.7558 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.388 → 0.399	+0.011	0.2169	0.2210n=162 Average	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2274	+0.007	+0.011	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.411 → 0.415	+0.004	0.2212	0.2343n=162 Average	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2363	+0.023	+0.003	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.198 → 0.228	+0.030	0.0889	0.1127n=162 Below average	0.10299/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1299	+0.042	+0.025	+0.006 ok
		Home runs	0.045 → 0.042	-0.003	0.0304	0.0256n=162 Good	0.02819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0236	-0.008	-0.004	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Randy Vásquez1.2979 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.302 → 0.310	+0.009	0.2169	0.2324n=587 Below average	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2391	+0.020	+0.008	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.204 → 0.206	+0.002	0.2212	0.1570n=587 Poor	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1585	-0.083	+0.003	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.089 → 0.103	+0.014	0.0889	0.0685n=587 Very good	0.10299/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0796	-0.026	+0.018	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.037 → 0.034	-0.003	0.0304	0.0286n=587 Average	0.02819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0264	-0.002	-0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Jason Adam0.6876 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.148 → 0.152	+0.004	0.2169	0.2150n=142 Average	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2214	-0.001	+0.004	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.123 → 0.124	+0.001	0.2212	0.1789n=142 Below average	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1805	-0.029	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.055 → 0.064	+0.009	0.0889	0.0802n=142 Average	0.10299/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0929	-0.006	+0.010	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.022 → 0.020	-0.002	0.0304	0.0316n=142 Average	0.02819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0292	+0.001	-0.002	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Joe Musgrove0.3432 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.074 → 0.077	+0.002	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2232	0	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.076 → 0.077	+0.001	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2232	0	+0.001	0 ok
		Walks	0.030 → 0.035	+0.005	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10299/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1029	0	+0.005	0 ok
		Home runs	0.010 → 0.010	-0.001	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.02819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0281	0	-0.001	0 ok

MIL against Shane Drohan (LHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to MIL hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 24.8059 of 37.707 projected batters (65.8%) and the 2 projected relievers for the remaining 34.2%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Brice Turang	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.883 → 0.822	-0.061	0.2169	0.2264n=666 Good	0.2015n=757 Good	0.2105	+0.042	-0.067	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9299 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2105 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.9314 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2109 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.9304 \| starter alone would have been -0.062
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.056 → 1.105	+0.050	0.2212	0.2473n=666 Below average	0.2111n=757 Average	0.2364	+0.113	-0.044	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9558 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2364 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.2227 at 0.342 share (log5 0.3024 vs pen 0.2726) = x1.0471 \| starter alone would have been -0.047
		Walkswhole staff	0.605 → 0.623	+0.017	0.0889	0.1243n=666 Very good	0.0919n=757 Average	0.1282	+0.154	+0.013	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0317 at 0.658 share (log5 0.1282 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0232 at 0.342 share (log5 0.1272 vs pen 0.0911) = x1.0288 \| starter alone would have been +0.019
		Home runswhole staff	0.117 → 0.105	-0.012	0.0304	0.0312n=666 Average	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0286	+0.004	-0.011	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.918 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0286 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.8503 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0265 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8948 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
William Contreras	C	Hitswhole staff	0.845 → 0.786	-0.059	0.2169	0.2303n=630 Good	0.2015n=757 Good	0.2142	+0.057	-0.065	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9302 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2142 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.9317 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2146 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.9307 \| starter alone would have been -0.059
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.750 → 0.792	+0.042	0.2212	0.1529n=630 Good	0.2111n=757 Average	0.1453	-0.290	-0.043	+0.011 ok
		split	starter x0.9505 at 0.658 share (log5 0.1453 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.2579 at 0.342 share (log5 0.1923 vs pen 0.2726) = x1.0557 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Walkswhole staff	0.436 → 0.449	+0.013	0.0889	0.0942n=630 Average	0.0919n=757 Average	0.0973	+0.023	+0.013	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0328 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0973 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.024 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0965 vs pen 0.0911) = x1.0298 \| starter alone would have been +0.014
		Home runswhole staff	0.113 → 0.101	-0.012	0.0304	0.0291n=630 Average	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0267	-0.005	-0.011	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9178 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0267 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.85 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0247 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8946 \| starter alone would have been -0.009
Jake Bauers	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.794 → 0.739	-0.056	0.2169	0.2179n=567 Average	0.2015n=757 Good	0.2025	+0.004	-0.066	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9292 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2025 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.9307 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2028 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.9297 \| starter alone would have been -0.056
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.186 → 1.240	+0.054	0.2212	0.2676n=567 Below average	0.2111n=757 Average	0.2561	+0.200	-0.043	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.957 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2561 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.2154 at 0.342 share (log5 0.3253 vs pen 0.2726) = x1.0454 \| starter alone would have been -0.051
		Walkswhole staff	0.681 → 0.701	+0.019	0.0889	0.1510n=567 Very good	0.0919n=757 Average	0.1556	+0.267	+0.013	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x1.0307 at 0.658 share (log5 0.1556 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0225 at 0.342 share (log5 0.1544 vs pen 0.0911) = x1.0279 \| starter alone would have been +0.021
		Home runswhole staff	0.145 → 0.130	-0.015	0.0304	0.0397n=567 Good	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0365	+0.040	-0.011	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9186 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0365 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.8514 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0338 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8956 \| starter alone would have been -0.012
Jackson Chourio	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.981 → 0.915	-0.067	0.2169	0.2457n=567 Very good	0.2015n=757 Good	0.2289	+0.130	-0.070	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.9315 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2289 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.933 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2292 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.932 \| starter alone would have been -0.067
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.190 → 1.247	+0.057	0.2212	0.2351n=567 Average	0.2111n=757 Average	0.2246	+0.063	-0.046	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9551 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2246 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.2272 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2886 vs pen 0.2726) = x1.0482 \| starter alone would have been -0.053
		Walkswhole staff	0.415 → 0.427	+0.013	0.0889	0.0839n=567 Average	0.0919n=757 Average	0.0867	-0.022	+0.013	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0332 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0867 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0243 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0860 vs pen 0.0911) = x1.0302 \| starter alone would have been +0.014
		Home runswhole staff	0.168 → 0.151	-0.018	0.0304	0.0397n=567 Good	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0365	+0.042	-0.011	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9186 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0365 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.8514 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0338 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8956 \| starter alone would have been -0.014
Cooper Pratt	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.772 → 0.718	-0.054	0.2169	0.2255n=258 Good	0.2015n=757 Good	0.2097	+0.032	-0.057	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9298 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2097 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.9313 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2100 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.9303 \| starter alone would have been -0.054
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.784 → 0.826	+0.041	0.2212	0.1851n=258 Good	0.2111n=757 Average	0.1763	-0.135	-0.038	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.9523 at 0.658 share (log5 0.1763 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.2457 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2306 vs pen 0.2726) = x1.0527 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Walkswhole staff	0.370 → 0.381	+0.011	0.0889	0.0917n=258 Average	0.0919n=757 Average	0.0947	+0.010	+0.011	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0329 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0947 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0241 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0939 vs pen 0.0911) = x1.0299 \| starter alone would have been +0.012
		Home runswhole staff	0.073 → 0.066	-0.008	0.0304	0.0211n=258 Below average	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0194	-0.035	-0.009	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9172 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0194 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.849 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0179 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8939 \| starter alone would have been -0.006
Sal Frelick	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.803 → 0.746	-0.057	0.2169	0.2106n=374 Below average	0.2015n=757 Good	0.1955	-0.024	-0.058	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9286 at 0.658 share (log5 0.1955 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.9301 at 0.342 share (log5 0.1959 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.9291 \| starter alone would have been -0.057
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.498 → 0.527	+0.030	0.2212	0.1106n=374 Very good	0.2111n=757 Average	0.1049	-0.416	-0.038	+0.016 ok
		split	starter x0.9482 at 0.658 share (log5 0.1049 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.2743 at 0.342 share (log5 0.1410 vs pen 0.2726) = x1.0598 \| starter alone would have been -0.026
		Walkswhole staff	0.353 → 0.364	+0.011	0.0889	0.0843n=374 Average	0.0919n=757 Average	0.0871	-0.017	+0.011	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0332 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0871 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0243 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0864 vs pen 0.0911) = x1.0302 \| starter alone would have been +0.012
		Home runswhole staff	0.065 → 0.058	-0.007	0.0304	0.0173n=374 Poor	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0158	-0.049	-0.009	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9169 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0158 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.8485 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0147 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8935 \| starter alone would have been -0.005
Garrett Mitchell	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.807 → 0.750	-0.057	0.2169	0.2215n=519 Average	0.2015n=757 Good	0.2059	+0.019	-0.062	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9295 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2059 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.931 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2062 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.93 \| starter alone would have been -0.057
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.290 → 1.344	+0.054	0.2212	0.3061n=519 Poor	0.2111n=757 Average	0.2936	+0.342	-0.041	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.9591 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2936 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.2018 at 0.342 share (log5 0.3679 vs pen 0.2726) = x1.0421 \| starter alone would have been -0.053
		Walkswhole staff	0.483 → 0.497	+0.014	0.0889	0.1091n=519 Good	0.0919n=757 Average	0.1126	+0.081	+0.012	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0323 at 0.658 share (log5 0.1126 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0236 at 0.342 share (log5 0.1116 vs pen 0.0911) = x1.0293 \| starter alone would have been +0.016
		Home runswhole staff	0.087 → 0.078	-0.009	0.0304	0.0243n=519 Below average	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0223	-0.025	-0.010	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9174 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0223 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.8494 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0206 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8941 \| starter alone would have been -0.007
Christian Yelich	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.779 → 0.724	-0.055	0.2169	0.2108n=487 Average	0.2015n=757 Good	0.1958	-0.025	-0.062	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9286 at 0.658 share (log5 0.1958 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.9301 at 0.342 share (log5 0.1961 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.9291 \| starter alone would have been -0.056
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.128 → 1.179	+0.051	0.2212	0.2684n=487 Below average	0.2111n=757 Average	0.2568	+0.191	-0.041	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.957 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2568 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.2152 at 0.342 share (log5 0.3261 vs pen 0.2726) = x1.0453 \| starter alone would have been -0.049
		Walkswhole staff	0.460 → 0.473	+0.014	0.0889	0.0983n=487 Average	0.0919n=757 Average	0.1015	+0.038	+0.012	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0327 at 0.658 share (log5 0.1015 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0239 at 0.342 share (log5 0.1007 vs pen 0.0911) = x1.0297 \| starter alone would have been +0.015
		Home runswhole staff	0.102 → 0.091	-0.011	0.0304	0.0267n=487 Average	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0245	-0.015	-0.010	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9176 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0245 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.8497 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0227 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8944 \| starter alone would have been -0.008
David Hamilton	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.719 → 0.669	-0.051	0.2169	0.2156n=383 Average	0.2015n=757 Good	0.2003	-0.005	-0.054	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.929 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2003 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.9305 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2006 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.9295 \| starter alone would have been -0.051
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.870 → 0.913	+0.043	0.2212	0.2218n=383 Average	0.2111n=757 Average	0.2117	+0.002	-0.036	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9544 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2117 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.232 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2733 vs pen 0.2726) = x1.0494 \| starter alone would have been -0.040
		Walkswhole staff	0.337 → 0.347	+0.010	0.0889	0.0828n=383 Average	0.0919n=757 Average	0.0856	-0.021	+0.010	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0332 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0856 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0244 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0849 vs pen 0.0911) = x1.0302 \| starter alone would have been +0.011
		Home runswhole staff	0.064 → 0.058	-0.007	0.0304	0.0186n=383 Poor	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0170	-0.042	-0.009	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.917 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0170 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.8486 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0158 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8936 \| starter alone would have been -0.005
STARTER Logan Henderson21.6802 BF	Starter	Hits	3.304 → 3.333	+0.029	0.2169	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.21878/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1919	-0.578	+0.041	-0.004 ok
		Strikeouts	6.216 → 5.977	-0.238	0.2212	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.21208/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2713	+1.320	-0.199	-0.036 ok
		Walks	1.148 → 1.232	+0.085	0.0889	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.09538/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0662	-0.592	+0.138	-0.039 ok
		Home runs	0.718 → 0.775	+0.057	0.0304	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.03288/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0368	+0.080	+0.052	+0.006 ok
RELIEVER DL Hall2.5726 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.447 → 0.451	+0.004	0.2169	0.1738n=234 Very good	0.21878/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1754	-0.111	+0.005	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.653 → 0.627	-0.026	0.2212	0.2538n=234 Good	0.21208/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2437	+0.084	-0.024	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.315 → 0.337	+0.022	0.0889	0.1226n=234 Poor	0.09538/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1310	+0.087	+0.016	+0.005 ok
		Home runs	0.070 → 0.076	+0.006	0.0304	0.0273n=234 Average	0.03288/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0295	-0.008	+0.006	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Aaron Ashby2.4072 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.864 → 0.872	+0.008	0.2169	0.2024n=372 Good	0.21878/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2041	-0.035	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.516 → 1.458	-0.058	0.2212	0.2869n=372 Very good	0.21208/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2760	+0.158	-0.022	-0.004 ok
		Walks	0.543 → 0.581	+0.038	0.0889	0.1039n=372 Below average	0.09538/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1112	+0.036	+0.015	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.123 → 0.133	+0.010	0.0304	0.0251n=372 Good	0.03288/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0271	-0.013	+0.006	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER JoJo Romero1.9913 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.430 → 0.434	+0.004	0.2169	0.2159n=233 Average	0.21878/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2177	-0.002	+0.004	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.450 → 0.431	-0.019	0.2212	0.2259n=233 Average	0.21208/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2165	+0.009	-0.018	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.158 → 0.170	+0.011	0.0889	0.0794n=233 Average	0.09538/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0852	-0.019	+0.013	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.060 → 0.065	+0.005	0.0304	0.0303n=233 Average	0.03288/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0327	-0.000	+0.005	0 ok
RELIEVER Chad Patrick1.9913 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.397 → 0.400	+0.004	0.2169	0.1991n=438 Good	0.21878/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2009	-0.035	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.425 → 0.408	-0.018	0.2212	0.2137n=438 Average	0.21208/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2048	-0.015	-0.018	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.207 → 0.222	+0.015	0.0889	0.1041n=438 Below average	0.09538/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1114	+0.030	+0.013	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.055 → 0.060	+0.004	0.0304	0.0278n=438 Average	0.03288/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0300	-0.005	+0.005	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Abner Uribe1.8259 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.853 → 0.860	+0.007	0.2169	0.2018n=230 Good	0.21878/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2036	-0.027	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.115 → 1.071	-0.044	0.2212	0.2538n=230 Good	0.21208/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2437	+0.060	-0.017	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.289 → 0.310	+0.021	0.0889	0.0826n=230 Average	0.09538/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0886	-0.012	+0.012	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.037 → 0.040	+0.003	0.0304	0.0245n=230 Very good	0.03288/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0265	-0.011	+0.004	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Antonio Senzatela1.8259 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.415 → 0.419	+0.004	0.2169	0.2274n=303 Below average	0.21878/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2293	+0.019	+0.003	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.361 → 0.345	-0.015	0.2212	0.1977n=303 Below average	0.21208/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1892	-0.043	-0.017	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.155 → 0.166	+0.011	0.0889	0.0847n=303 Average	0.09538/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0908	-0.008	+0.012	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.048 → 0.051	+0.004	0.0304	0.0261n=303 Good	0.03288/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0282	-0.008	+0.004	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Trevor Megill1.7841 BF	Closer	Hits	0.641 → 0.647	+0.006	0.2169	0.1936n=242 Very good	0.21878/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1953	-0.042	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.136 → 1.092	-0.044	0.2212	0.2692n=242 Good	0.21208/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2587	+0.086	-0.016	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.207 → 0.222	+0.015	0.0889	0.0726n=242 Good	0.09538/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0779	-0.029	+0.011	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.011 → 0.012	+0.001	0.0304	0.0212n=242 Very good	0.03288/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0229	-0.017	+0.004	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Kyle Harrison0.9539 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.219 → 0.221	+0.002	0.2169	0.2300n=505 Below average	0.21878/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2319	+0.013	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.259 → 0.249	-0.010	0.2212	0.2713n=505 Good	0.21208/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2607	+0.048	-0.009	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.072 → 0.077	+0.005	0.0889	0.0755n=505 Good	0.09538/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0810	-0.013	+0.006	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.034 → 0.036	+0.003	0.0304	0.0353n=505 Below average	0.03288/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0381	+0.005	+0.002	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Shane Drohan0.705 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.159 → 0.160	+0.001	0.2169	0.2248n=528 Below average	0.21878/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2267	+0.006	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.166 → 0.159	-0.007	0.2212	0.2347n=528 Average	0.21208/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2251	+0.009	-0.006	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.060 → 0.064	+0.004	0.0889	0.0846n=528 Average	0.09538/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0907	-0.003	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.020 → 0.021	+0.002	0.0304	0.0283n=528 Average	0.03288/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0305	-0.002	+0.002	-0.000 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Michael King	Starter	24.8	6.0	5.932	6 / 4.766	5 / 4.712	0 / 2.244	2 / 2.088	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Mason Miller	Closer	4.1	1.2	0.989	1 / 0.656	1 / 1.621	0 / 0.444	0 / 0.325	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	5.5	0.1	1.318	3 / 1.075	1 / 1.324	1 / 0.426	3 / 0.410	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Logan Henderson	Starter	21.7	6.0	5.743	2 / 3.304	8 / 6.216	1 / 1.148	3 / 1.404	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5.5	1.0	1.351	1 / 0.864	2 / 1.516	1 / 0.543	1 / 0.398	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Abner Uribe	Setup Man	4.2	1.0	1.013	0 / 0.853	0 / 1.115	0 / 0.289	0 / 0.171	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Trevor Megill	Closer	3.9	1.0	1.013	0 / 0.641	2 / 1.136	1 / 0.207	0 / 0.250	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity148 checks	PASS	148 of 148 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 3
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.932
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Michael King projected 24.8 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band2 checks	PASS	2 of 2 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.743
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Logan Henderson projected 21.7 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

Provenance. Read only from published artifacts and stored KPI value documents. Nothing is recomputed, so this document cannot disagree with what was published. Per-player metric adjustments are a measurement of the catalog at player level and are labelled as such throughout; the pipeline itself moved team runs, the win probability, and hitter lines by one club-wide ratio.