MLB Prediction System

Metric Evolution & Audit

Every number that moved, the stage that moved it, the input it used, and the arithmetic that proves it

Slate 20261003Games 4Checks 656Schema metric_evolution_report_v1Built 2026-10-06 14:08Z

Verdict across the slate

656 invariants checked across 4 games: NO DEFECT FOUND

How to read this, and what a defect looks like

Every figure below is shown with the arithmetic that produced it and a verdict beside it, so a disagreement can be pointed at a specific line rather than at the system as a whole.

Stage chain. Each game lists every stage that touched the score, the score after it, and whether it changed the target. Most stages move nothing on most games; a chain that showed only movement would misrepresent it. A stage reporting a delta while changed_target is false computed an adjustment and did not apply it, which is normal and is stated.
Blend arithmetic. The KPI blend must satisfy blended = baseline + weight x (kpi_only - baseline) for all three targets. A FAIL here means the layer reported a number it did not compute.
Rounding. Published integers must be the rounding of the blended runs under the documented tie rule. A FAIL means the published score and the continuous line describe different games.
Log5 additivity. For every player metric, own skill plus opponent plus the Log5 remainder must equal the total against the league, exactly. A FAIL means the decomposition is not a decomposition.
Direction. A green delta helps the subject, a red one hurts him. Strikeouts invert for a hitter. If an elite arm's opponent shows green strikeouts, the orientation is wrong and the whole player section is suspect.
Measured versus published. The KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The per-player metric adjustments here are a measurement of the same catalog at player level, not what the pipeline published; the one club-wide ratio the pipeline actually applied to hitter lines is printed beside them.
Integer versus continuous. The integer player line is a simulation draw reconciled to the box score. The continuous expected_* beside it is the model's own view and is the rankable quantity. Judging the model by the integer is how a working model looks broken.

Slate overview

Game	Published	p(home)	Stages	KPI applied	Δ away runs	Δ home runs	Simulation draw chosen on	0-out starter
20261003_ATL@LAD	4 - 5	0.5467	7	no	-	-	-	no
20261003_CHW@CLE	4 - 2	0.4770	7	no	-	-	-	no
20261003_NYY@TB	3 - 4	0.5184	7	no	-	-	-	no
20261003_SD@MIL	4 - 6	0.5300	7	no	-	-	-	no

KPI model in force. candidate 20261005T125039Z_f5114dc0, 48 features built from 40 registered KPIs, blend weights {"home_runs": 0.44, "away_runs": 0.78, "home_win": 0.0}, frozen evaluation ends 2026-09-26. A target whose weight is zero contributes nothing by construction: the winner probability carries weight zero while its walk-forward verdict is inconclusive, so every win-probability movement below is expected to be exactly zero.

Per game

20261003_ATL@LAD — published 4-5, 171 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20261003_ATL@LAD__20261003T203748Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-10-03T20:37:48, first pitch 2026-10-03T20:00:00.
Published 4 - 5 with p(home) 0.546692. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 1 of 4 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.4669950633445845 - 5.887453590703506	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 6	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	away -0.3704; home +0.2249 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

A stage reporting its own adjustment while Changed target reads no computed a movement that a later reconciliation absorbed, or that rounded away at the integer score. That is recorded rather than hidden.

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

ATL against Chris Sale (LHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to ATL hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 25.926 of 35.94 projected batters (72.1%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 27.9%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Drake Baldwin	DH	Hitswhole staff	1.021 → 0.976	-0.046	0.2169	0.2374n=598 Very good	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2275	+0.090	-0.041	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9584 at 0.721 share (log5 0.2275 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9475 at 0.279 share (log5 0.2249 vs pen 0.2052) = x0.9554 \| starter alone would have been -0.043
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.270 → 1.610	+0.341	0.2212	0.2099n=598 Average	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.2774	-0.049	+0.306	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x1.3214 at 0.721 share (log5 0.2774 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.1307 at 0.279 share (log5 0.2374 vs pen 0.2497) = x1.2683 \| starter alone would have been +0.408
		Walkswhole staff	0.308 → 0.218	-0.090	0.0889	0.0915n=598 Average	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0543	+0.011	-0.159	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.5938 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0543 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.003 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0917 vs pen 0.0892) = x0.7078 \| starter alone would have been -0.125
		Home runswhole staff	0.173 → 0.151	-0.022	0.0304	0.0371n=598 Good	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0316	+0.030	-0.020	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8516 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0316 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.933 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0347 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.8743 \| starter alone would have been -0.026
Matt Olson	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.882 → 0.842	-0.040	0.2169	0.2232n=682 Average	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2137	+0.025	-0.037	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9577 at 0.721 share (log5 0.2137 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9466 at 0.279 share (log5 0.2113 vs pen 0.2052) = x0.9546 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.328 → 1.667	+0.339	0.2212	0.2406n=682 Average	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.3140	+0.077	+0.279	+0.015 ok
		split	starter x1.3052 at 0.721 share (log5 0.3140 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.125 at 0.279 share (log5 0.2706 vs pen 0.2497) = x1.255 \| starter alone would have been +0.405
		Walkswhole staff	0.286 → 0.203	-0.084	0.0889	0.0919n=682 Average	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0546	+0.012	-0.145	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.5939 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0546 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.003 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0921 vs pen 0.0892) = x0.7079 \| starter alone would have been -0.116
		Home runswhole staff	0.200 → 0.175	-0.025	0.0304	0.0518n=682 Very good	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0442	+0.086	-0.018	-0.012 ok
		split	starter x0.8535 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0442 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.9339 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0484 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.8759 \| starter alone would have been -0.029
Michael Harris II	CF	Hitswhole staff	1.031 → 0.986	-0.045	0.2169	0.2533n=608 Very good	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2429	+0.144	-0.037	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9592 at 0.721 share (log5 0.2429 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9485 at 0.279 share (log5 0.2402 vs pen 0.2052) = x0.9562 \| starter alone would have been -0.042
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.085 → 1.385	+0.300	0.2212	0.1915n=608 Average	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.2550	-0.117	+0.276	-0.025 ok
		split	starter x1.3314 at 0.721 share (log5 0.2550 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.1341 at 0.279 share (log5 0.2172 vs pen 0.2497) = x1.2764 \| starter alone would have been +0.360
		Walkswhole staff	0.138 → 0.097	-0.042	0.0889	0.0462n=608 Poor	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0269	-0.169	-0.143	+0.067 ok
		split	starter x0.5821 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0269 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.0032 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0463 vs pen 0.0892) = x0.6994 \| starter alone would have been -0.058
		Home runswhole staff	0.170 → 0.149	-0.021	0.0304	0.0379n=608 Good	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0322	+0.030	-0.018	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8516 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0322 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.933 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0353 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.8743 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.880 → 0.840	-0.040	0.2169	0.2212n=457 Average	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2118	+0.018	-0.039	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9576 at 0.721 share (log5 0.2118 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9464 at 0.279 share (log5 0.2094 vs pen 0.2052) = x0.9545 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.142 → 1.444	+0.302	0.2212	0.2190n=457 Average	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.2884	-0.009	+0.297	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.3165 at 0.721 share (log5 0.2884 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.129 at 0.279 share (log5 0.2473 vs pen 0.2497) = x1.2643 \| starter alone would have been +0.361
		Walkswhole staff	0.415 → 0.295	-0.120	0.0889	0.1104n=457 Good	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0661	+0.091	-0.154	-0.034 ok
		split	starter x0.5989 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0661 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.0029 at 0.279 share (log5 0.1107 vs pen 0.0892) = x0.7115 \| starter alone would have been -0.167
		Home runswhole staff	0.169 → 0.147	-0.021	0.0304	0.0389n=457 Good	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0331	+0.036	-0.019	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8518 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0331 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.9331 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0363 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.8745 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
Ozzie Albies	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.884 → 0.844	-0.041	0.2169	0.2154n=667 Average	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2062	-0.006	-0.036	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9573 at 0.721 share (log5 0.2062 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9461 at 0.279 share (log5 0.2038 vs pen 0.2052) = x0.9542 \| starter alone would have been -0.038
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.769 → 0.993	+0.224	0.2212	0.1576n=667 Good	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.2127	-0.251	+0.275	-0.057 ok
		split	starter x1.3502 at 0.721 share (log5 0.2127 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.1406 at 0.279 share (log5 0.1797 vs pen 0.2497) = x1.2918 \| starter alone would have been +0.269
		Walkswhole staff	0.268 → 0.188	-0.079	0.0889	0.0707n=667 Below average	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0416	-0.072	-0.142	+0.028 ok
		split	starter x0.5884 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0416 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.0031 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0709 vs pen 0.0892) = x0.7039 \| starter alone would have been -0.110
		Home runswhole staff	0.160 → 0.140	-0.020	0.0304	0.0322n=667 Average	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0274	+0.007	-0.018	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8509 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0274 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.9326 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0301 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.8737 \| starter alone would have been -0.024
Mauricio Dubón	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.878 → 0.839	-0.039	0.2169	0.2382n=603 Very good	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2283	+0.083	-0.036	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9585 at 0.721 share (log5 0.2283 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9475 at 0.279 share (log5 0.2257 vs pen 0.2052) = x0.9554 \| starter alone would have been -0.036
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.689 → 0.899	+0.211	0.2212	0.1270n=603 Very good	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.1737	-0.367	+0.272	-0.090 ok
		split	starter x1.3676 at 0.721 share (log5 0.1737 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.1464 at 0.279 share (log5 0.1456 vs pen 0.2497) = x1.306 \| starter alone would have been +0.253
		Walkswhole staff	0.224 → 0.157	-0.067	0.0889	0.0631n=603 Below average	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0370	-0.101	-0.141	+0.039 ok
		split	starter x0.5864 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0370 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.0031 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0633 vs pen 0.0892) = x0.7025 \| starter alone would have been -0.093
		Home runswhole staff	0.111 → 0.097	-0.014	0.0304	0.0231n=603 Below average	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0196	-0.028	-0.018	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8497 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0196 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.932 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0215 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.8726 \| starter alone would have been -0.017
Sean Murphy	C	Hitswhole staff	0.699 → 0.667	-0.032	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2076	0	-0.033	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9573 at 0.721 share (log5 0.2076 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9462 at 0.279 share (log5 0.2052 vs pen 0.2052) = x0.9542 \| starter alone would have been -0.030
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.178 → 1.488	+0.310	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.2910	0	+0.246	0 ok
		split	starter x1.3154 at 0.721 share (log5 0.2910 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.1286 at 0.279 share (log5 0.2497 vs pen 0.2497) = x1.2634 \| starter alone would have been +0.371
		Walkswhole staff	0.293 → 0.207	-0.086	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0527	0	-0.128	0 ok
		split	starter x0.5932 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0527 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.003 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0892 vs pen 0.0892) = x0.7074 \| starter alone would have been -0.119
		Home runswhole staff	0.120 → 0.105	-0.015	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0259	0	-0.016	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8507 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0259 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.9325 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0283 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.8735 \| starter alone would have been -0.018
Austin Riley	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.732 → 0.698	-0.034	0.2169	0.2034n=614 Below average	0.2076n=620 Average	0.1946	-0.049	-0.034	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9566 at 0.721 share (log5 0.1946 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9453 at 0.279 share (log5 0.1923 vs pen 0.2052) = x0.9535 \| starter alone would have been -0.032
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.450 → 1.778	+0.328	0.2212	0.3090n=614 Poor	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.3925	+0.321	+0.255	+0.050 ok
		split	starter x1.2702 at 0.721 share (log5 0.3925 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.1125 at 0.279 share (log5 0.3438 vs pen 0.2497) = x1.2263 \| starter alone would have been +0.392
		Walkswhole staff	0.272 → 0.192	-0.080	0.0889	0.0799n=614 Average	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0472	-0.033	-0.132	+0.013 ok
		split	starter x0.5908 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0472 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.003 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0802 vs pen 0.0892) = x0.7056 \| starter alone would have been -0.111
		Home runswhole staff	0.118 → 0.103	-0.015	0.0304	0.0308n=614 Average	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0262	+0.001	-0.017	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8507 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0262 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.9325 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0287 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.8735 \| starter alone would have been -0.018
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.587 → 0.560	-0.027	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2076n=620 Average	0.2076	0	-0.029	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9573 at 0.721 share (log5 0.2076 vs his 0.2076) + bullpen x0.9462 at 0.279 share (log5 0.2052 vs pen 0.2052) = x0.9542 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.007 → 1.272	+0.265	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.2910	0	+0.222	0 ok
		split	starter x1.3154 at 0.721 share (log5 0.2910 vs his 0.2910) + bullpen x1.1286 at 0.279 share (log5 0.2497 vs pen 0.2497) = x1.2634 \| starter alone would have been +0.318
		Walkswhole staff	0.290 → 0.205	-0.085	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.0527	0	-0.115	0 ok
		split	starter x0.5932 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0527 vs his 0.0527) + bullpen x1.003 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0892 vs pen 0.0892) = x0.7074 \| starter alone would have been -0.118
		Home runswhole staff	0.065 → 0.056	-0.008	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0259n=620 Good	0.0259	0	-0.014	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8507 at 0.721 share (log5 0.0259 vs his 0.0259) + bullpen x0.9325 at 0.279 share (log5 0.0283 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.8735 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
STARTER Dylan Dodd14.4204 BF	Starter	Hits	1.514 → 1.564	+0.050	0.2169	0.1933n=186 Very good	0.22389/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1996	-0.340	+0.099	-0.008 ok
		Strikeouts	3.500 → 3.174	-0.326	0.2212	0.2620n=186 Good	0.19969/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2376	+0.588	-0.312	-0.040 ok
		Walks	0.000 → 0.000	0	0.0889	0.0815n=186 Average	0.10059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0923	-0.107	+0.167	-0.013 ok
		Home runs	0.000 → 0.000	0	0.0304	0.0294n=186 Average	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0336	-0.015	+0.063	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Didier Fuentes4.2113 BF	Setup Man	Hits	1.054 → 1.088	+0.034	0.2169	0.2119n=290 Average	0.22389/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2187	-0.021	+0.029	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.024 → 0.931	-0.093	0.2212	0.2802n=290 Very good	0.19969/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2547	+0.249	-0.091	-0.016 ok
		Walks	0.197 → 0.223	+0.026	0.0889	0.0760n=290 Good	0.10059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0861	-0.054	+0.049	-0.006 ok
		Home runs	0.170 → 0.194	+0.025	0.0304	0.0266n=290 Good	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0304	-0.016	+0.018	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER AJ Smith-Shawver2.9887 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.653 → 0.674	+0.021	0.2169	0.2186n=144 Average	0.22389/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2256	+0.005	+0.021	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.596 → 0.537	-0.060	0.2212	0.1996n=144 Below average	0.19969/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1795	-0.065	-0.065	+0.005 ok
		Walks	0.297 → 0.336	+0.038	0.0889	0.0995n=144 Below average	0.10059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1123	+0.032	+0.035	+0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.104 → 0.119	+0.015	0.0304	0.0348n=144 Below average	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0398	+0.013	+0.013	+0.002 ok
RELIEVER Raisel Iglesias2.8534 BF	Closer	Hits	0.800 → 0.825	+0.026	0.2169	0.2121n=233 Average	0.22389/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2189	-0.014	+0.020	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.952 → 0.862	-0.089	0.2212	0.2546n=233 Good	0.19969/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2306	+0.095	-0.062	-0.007 ok
		Walks	0.206 → 0.234	+0.027	0.0889	0.0794n=233 Average	0.10059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0899	-0.027	+0.033	-0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.085 → 0.097	+0.012	0.0304	0.0288n=233 Average	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0330	-0.004	+0.013	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Dylan Lee2.4451 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.491 → 0.507	+0.016	0.2169	0.2007n=253 Good	0.22389/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2072	-0.040	+0.017	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.680 → 0.618	-0.062	0.2212	0.2783n=253 Very good	0.19969/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2529	+0.140	-0.053	-0.009 ok
		Walks	0.185 → 0.209	+0.025	0.0889	0.0755n=253 Good	0.10059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0856	-0.033	+0.028	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.058 → 0.066	+0.008	0.0304	0.0237n=253 Very good	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0271	-0.016	+0.011	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Brent Suter2.3775 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.531 → 0.547	+0.017	0.2169	0.2232n=377 Average	0.22389/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2302	+0.015	+0.016	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.498 → 0.449	-0.049	0.2212	0.2094n=377 Average	0.19969/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1886	-0.028	-0.051	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.178 → 0.202	+0.024	0.0889	0.0748n=377 Good	0.10059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0848	-0.034	+0.028	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.065 → 0.075	+0.009	0.0304	0.0274n=377 Average	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0314	-0.007	+0.011	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Victor Mederos2.1068 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.433 → 0.447	+0.014	0.2169	0.2054n=148 Good	0.22389/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2120	-0.024	+0.015	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.478 → 0.431	-0.046	0.2212	0.2267n=148 Average	0.19969/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2047	+0.012	-0.046	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.193 → 0.218	+0.025	0.0889	0.0917n=148 Average	0.10059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1036	+0.006	+0.024	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.052 → 0.059	+0.007	0.0304	0.0245n=148 Very good	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0281	-0.012	+0.009	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Ray Kerr2.1068 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.457 → 0.471	+0.015	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22389/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2238	0	+0.015	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.466 → 0.420	-0.046	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.19969/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1996	0	-0.046	0 ok
		Walks	0.187 → 0.212	+0.024	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1005	0	+0.024	0 ok
		Home runs	0.064 → 0.073	+0.009	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0348	0	+0.009	0 ok
RELIEVER Grant Holmes1.9015 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.411 → 0.424	+0.013	0.2169	0.2162n=607 Average	0.22389/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2230	-0.001	+0.013	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.353 → 0.318	-0.036	0.2212	0.1859n=607 Below average	0.19969/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1669	-0.067	-0.041	+0.005 ok
		Walks	0.174 → 0.197	+0.023	0.0889	0.0916n=607 Average	0.10059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1035	+0.005	+0.022	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.064 → 0.073	+0.009	0.0304	0.0338n=607 Below average	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0386	+0.006	+0.008	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Robert Suarez1.0196 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.211 → 0.218	+0.007	0.2169	0.2070n=130 Good	0.22389/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2137	-0.010	+0.007	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.212 → 0.191	-0.021	0.2212	0.2081n=130 Average	0.19969/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1874	-0.013	-0.022	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.071 → 0.080	+0.009	0.0889	0.0696n=130 Good	0.10059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0789	-0.020	+0.012	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.026 → 0.029	+0.004	0.0304	0.0253n=130 Good	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0290	-0.005	+0.004	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Chris Sale0.5436 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.113 → 0.116	+0.004	0.2169	0.2069n=628 Good	0.22389/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2136	-0.005	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.160 → 0.146	-0.014	0.2212	0.2947n=628 Very good	0.19969/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2684	+0.040	-0.012	-0.003 ok
		Walks	0.031 → 0.035	+0.004	0.0889	0.0573n=628 Very good	0.10059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0651	-0.017	+0.006	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.012 → 0.014	+0.002	0.0304	0.0219n=628 Very good	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0251	-0.005	+0.002	-0.001 ok

LAD against Roki Sasaki (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to LAD hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 14.4204 of 36.977 projected batters (39.0%) and the 2 projected relievers for the remaining 61.0%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is OUTSIDE that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Shohei Ohtani	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.894 → 0.846	-0.048	0.2169	0.2255n=613 Good	0.1933n=186 Very good	0.2012	+0.038	-0.104	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8922 at 0.390 share (log5 0.2012 vs his 0.1933) + bullpen x0.9808 at 0.610 share (log5 0.2211 vs pen 0.2127) = x0.9462 \| starter alone would have been -0.096
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.288 → 1.433	+0.144	0.2212	0.2445n=613 Average	0.2620n=186 Good	0.2880	+0.103	+0.180	+0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.1779 at 0.390 share (log5 0.2880 vs his 0.2620) + bullpen x1.0702 at 0.610 share (log5 0.2616 vs pen 0.2372) = x1.1122 \| starter alone would have been +0.229
		Walkswhole staff	0.484 → 0.449	-0.035	0.0889	0.1251n=613 Very good	0.0815n=186 Average	0.1151	+0.160	-0.033	-0.012 ok
		split	starter x0.9199 at 0.390 share (log5 0.1151 vs his 0.0815) + bullpen x0.9317 at 0.610 share (log5 0.1166 vs pen 0.0826) = x0.9271 \| starter alone would have been -0.039
		Home runswhole staff	0.194 → 0.183	-0.011	0.0304	0.0434n=613 Very good	0.0294n=186 Average	0.0419	+0.057	-0.005	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9665 at 0.390 share (log5 0.0419 vs his 0.0294) + bullpen x0.9329 at 0.610 share (log5 0.0404 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.946 \| starter alone would have been -0.006
Will Smith	C	Hitswhole staff	0.803 → 0.759	-0.043	0.2169	0.2185n=276 Average	0.1933n=186 Very good	0.1947	+0.007	-0.097	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8914 at 0.390 share (log5 0.1947 vs his 0.1933) + bullpen x0.9806 at 0.610 share (log5 0.2142 vs pen 0.2127) = x0.9458 \| starter alone would have been -0.087
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.801 → 0.900	+0.100	0.2212	0.1718n=276 Good	0.2620n=186 Good	0.2058	-0.204	+0.168	-0.028 ok
		split	starter x1.1984 at 0.390 share (log5 0.2058 vs his 0.2620) + bullpen x1.0775 at 0.610 share (log5 0.1851 vs pen 0.2372) = x1.1247 \| starter alone would have been +0.159
		Walkswhole staff	0.452 → 0.419	-0.033	0.0889	0.1129n=276 Good	0.0815n=186 Average	0.1037	+0.099	-0.030	-0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.9189 at 0.390 share (log5 0.1037 vs his 0.0815) + bullpen x0.9308 at 0.610 share (log5 0.1051 vs pen 0.0826) = x0.9262 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Home runswhole staff	0.143 → 0.136	-0.008	0.0304	0.0334n=276 Average	0.0294n=186 Average	0.0322	+0.012	-0.004	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9662 at 0.390 share (log5 0.0322 vs his 0.0294) + bullpen x0.9322 at 0.610 share (log5 0.0311 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.9455 \| starter alone would have been -0.005
Mookie Betts	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.880 → 0.833	-0.047	0.2169	0.2268n=523 Good	0.1933n=186 Very good	0.2024	+0.043	-0.101	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8924 at 0.390 share (log5 0.2024 vs his 0.1933) + bullpen x0.9808 at 0.610 share (log5 0.2225 vs pen 0.2127) = x0.9463 \| starter alone would have been -0.095
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.577 → 0.654	+0.077	0.2212	0.1168n=523 Very good	0.2620n=186 Good	0.1418	-0.448	+0.175	-0.068 ok
		split	starter x1.2144 at 0.390 share (log5 0.1418 vs his 0.2620) + bullpen x1.0831 at 0.610 share (log5 0.1265 vs pen 0.2372) = x1.1343 \| starter alone would have been +0.124
		Walkswhole staff	0.379 → 0.350	-0.029	0.0889	0.0866n=523 Average	0.0815n=186 Average	0.0794	-0.010	-0.032	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9167 at 0.390 share (log5 0.0794 vs his 0.0815) + bullpen x0.9289 at 0.610 share (log5 0.0804 vs pen 0.0826) = x0.9241 \| starter alone would have been -0.032
		Home runswhole staff	0.180 → 0.170	-0.010	0.0304	0.0394n=523 Good	0.0294n=186 Average	0.0381	+0.039	-0.004	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9664 at 0.390 share (log5 0.0381 vs his 0.0294) + bullpen x0.9326 at 0.610 share (log5 0.0368 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.9458 \| starter alone would have been -0.006
Teoscar Hernández	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.822 → 0.778	-0.044	0.2169	0.2292n=487 Good	0.1933n=186 Very good	0.2046	+0.049	-0.094	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8927 at 0.390 share (log5 0.2046 vs his 0.1933) + bullpen x0.9809 at 0.610 share (log5 0.2248 vs pen 0.2127) = x0.9465 \| starter alone would have been -0.088
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.216 → 1.348	+0.132	0.2212	0.2684n=487 Below average	0.2620n=186 Good	0.3144	+0.187	+0.162	+0.021 ok
		split	starter x1.1713 at 0.390 share (log5 0.3144 vs his 0.2620) + bullpen x1.0678 at 0.610 share (log5 0.2866 vs pen 0.2372) = x1.1082 \| starter alone would have been +0.208
		Walkswhole staff	0.351 → 0.325	-0.027	0.0889	0.0868n=487 Average	0.0815n=186 Average	0.0795	-0.009	-0.029	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9167 at 0.390 share (log5 0.0795 vs his 0.0815) + bullpen x0.9289 at 0.610 share (log5 0.0806 vs pen 0.0826) = x0.9241 \| starter alone would have been -0.029
		Home runswhole staff	0.135 → 0.127	-0.007	0.0304	0.0320n=487 Average	0.0294n=186 Average	0.0309	+0.006	-0.004	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9661 at 0.390 share (log5 0.0309 vs his 0.0294) + bullpen x0.9321 at 0.610 share (log5 0.0298 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.9454 \| starter alone would have been -0.005
Freddie Freeman	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.900 → 0.852	-0.048	0.2169	0.2394n=652 Very good	0.1933n=186 Very good	0.2140	+0.093	-0.097	-0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.894 at 0.390 share (log5 0.2140 vs his 0.1933) + bullpen x0.9811 at 0.610 share (log5 0.2349 vs pen 0.2127) = x0.9471 \| starter alone would have been -0.095
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.896 → 1.007	+0.111	0.2212	0.1781n=652 Good	0.2620n=186 Good	0.2131	-0.178	+0.168	-0.024 ok
		split	starter x1.1966 at 0.390 share (log5 0.2131 vs his 0.2620) + bullpen x1.0769 at 0.610 share (log5 0.1918 vs pen 0.2372) = x1.1236 \| starter alone would have been +0.176
		Walkswhole staff	0.367 → 0.339	-0.028	0.0889	0.0993n=652 Average	0.0815n=186 Average	0.0912	+0.043	-0.030	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9178 at 0.390 share (log5 0.0912 vs his 0.0815) + bullpen x0.9298 at 0.610 share (log5 0.0924 vs pen 0.0826) = x0.9251 \| starter alone would have been -0.030
		Home runswhole staff	0.111 → 0.105	-0.006	0.0304	0.0262n=652 Average	0.0294n=186 Average	0.0253	-0.017	-0.004	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9659 at 0.390 share (log5 0.0253 vs his 0.0294) + bullpen x0.9318 at 0.610 share (log5 0.0244 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.9451 \| starter alone would have been -0.004
Tommy Edman	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.735 → 0.695	-0.040	0.2169	0.2160n=326 Average	0.1933n=186 Very good	0.1924	-0.003	-0.087	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8911 at 0.390 share (log5 0.1924 vs his 0.1933) + bullpen x0.9806 at 0.610 share (log5 0.2118 vs pen 0.2127) = x0.9457 \| starter alone would have been -0.080
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.881 → 0.986	+0.105	0.2212	0.2049n=326 Average	0.2620n=186 Good	0.2436	-0.060	+0.150	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x1.1889 at 0.390 share (log5 0.2436 vs his 0.2620) + bullpen x1.0742 at 0.610 share (log5 0.2201 vs pen 0.2372) = x1.1189 \| starter alone would have been +0.166
		Walkswhole staff	0.277 → 0.255	-0.021	0.0889	0.0732n=326 Below average	0.0815n=186 Average	0.0670	-0.058	-0.027	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9156 at 0.390 share (log5 0.0670 vs his 0.0815) + bullpen x0.9279 at 0.610 share (log5 0.0679 vs pen 0.0826) = x0.9231 \| starter alone would have been -0.023
		Home runswhole staff	0.108 → 0.102	-0.006	0.0304	0.0272n=326 Average	0.0294n=186 Average	0.0262	-0.012	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.966 at 0.390 share (log5 0.0262 vs his 0.0294) + bullpen x0.9318 at 0.610 share (log5 0.0253 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.9451 \| starter alone would have been -0.004
Andy Pages	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.789 → 0.747	-0.042	0.2169	0.2323n=569 Good	0.1933n=186 Very good	0.2075	+0.058	-0.089	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8931 at 0.390 share (log5 0.2075 vs his 0.1933) + bullpen x0.981 at 0.610 share (log5 0.2279 vs pen 0.2127) = x0.9467 \| starter alone would have been -0.084
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.848 → 0.950	+0.102	0.2212	0.1971n=569 Average	0.2620n=186 Good	0.2348	-0.091	+0.154	-0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.1911 at 0.390 share (log5 0.2348 vs his 0.2620) + bullpen x1.0749 at 0.610 share (log5 0.2119 vs pen 0.2372) = x1.1202 \| starter alone would have been +0.162
		Walkswhole staff	0.339 → 0.313	-0.026	0.0889	0.0866n=569 Average	0.0815n=186 Average	0.0794	-0.009	-0.028	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9167 at 0.390 share (log5 0.0794 vs his 0.0815) + bullpen x0.9289 at 0.610 share (log5 0.0804 vs pen 0.0826) = x0.9241 \| starter alone would have been -0.028
		Home runswhole staff	0.149 → 0.141	-0.008	0.0304	0.0372n=569 Good	0.0294n=186 Average	0.0360	+0.026	-0.004	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9663 at 0.390 share (log5 0.0360 vs his 0.0294) + bullpen x0.9325 at 0.610 share (log5 0.0347 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.9457 \| starter alone would have been -0.005
Kyle Tucker	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.750 → 0.709	-0.041	0.2169	0.2076n=622 Below average	0.1933n=186 Very good	0.1847	-0.037	-0.093	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.89 at 0.390 share (log5 0.1847 vs his 0.1933) + bullpen x0.9804 at 0.610 share (log5 0.2035 vs pen 0.2127) = x0.9451 \| starter alone would have been -0.083
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.819 → 0.921	+0.102	0.2212	0.1711n=622 Good	0.2620n=186 Good	0.2051	-0.198	+0.161	-0.027 ok
		split	starter x1.1986 at 0.390 share (log5 0.2051 vs his 0.2620) + bullpen x1.0776 at 0.610 share (log5 0.1844 vs pen 0.2372) = x1.1248 \| starter alone would have been +0.163
		Walkswhole staff	0.395 → 0.366	-0.029	0.0889	0.1195n=622 Very good	0.0815n=186 Average	0.1099	+0.121	-0.029	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.9195 at 0.390 share (log5 0.1099 vs his 0.0815) + bullpen x0.9313 at 0.610 share (log5 0.1113 vs pen 0.0826) = x0.9267 \| starter alone would have been -0.032
		Home runswhole staff	0.114 → 0.108	-0.006	0.0304	0.0282n=622 Average	0.0294n=186 Average	0.0273	-0.009	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.966 at 0.390 share (log5 0.0273 vs his 0.0294) + bullpen x0.9319 at 0.610 share (log5 0.0263 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.9452 \| starter alone would have been -0.004
Max Muncy	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.747 → 0.707	-0.041	0.2169	0.2173n=556 Average	0.1933n=186 Very good	0.1937	+0.002	-0.089	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8912 at 0.390 share (log5 0.1937 vs his 0.1933) + bullpen x0.9806 at 0.610 share (log5 0.2131 vs pen 0.2127) = x0.9457 \| starter alone would have been -0.081
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.133 → 1.259	+0.126	0.2212	0.2493n=556 Below average	0.2620n=186 Good	0.2933	+0.106	+0.154	+0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.1765 at 0.390 share (log5 0.2933 vs his 0.2620) + bullpen x1.0697 at 0.610 share (log5 0.2667 vs pen 0.2372) = x1.1114 \| starter alone would have been +0.200
		Walkswhole staff	0.369 → 0.342	-0.027	0.0889	0.1105n=556 Good	0.0815n=186 Average	0.1015	+0.081	-0.028	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.9187 at 0.390 share (log5 0.1015 vs his 0.0815) + bullpen x0.9306 at 0.610 share (log5 0.1028 vs pen 0.0826) = x0.926 \| starter alone would have been -0.030
		Home runswhole staff	0.174 → 0.165	-0.009	0.0304	0.0451n=556 Very good	0.0294n=186 Average	0.0436	+0.056	-0.004	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9666 at 0.390 share (log5 0.0436 vs his 0.0294) + bullpen x0.933 at 0.610 share (log5 0.0421 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.9461 \| starter alone would have been -0.006
STARTER Tarik Skubal25.926 BF	Starter	Hits	5.428 → 5.651	+0.223	0.2169	0.2076n=620 Average	0.22577/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2161	-0.240	+0.228	-0.007 ok
		Strikeouts	6.258 → 5.964	-0.294	0.2212	0.2910n=620 Very good	0.20987/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2773	+1.809	-0.295	-0.060 ok
		Walks	1.241 → 1.133	-0.108	0.0889	0.0527n=620 Very good	0.08157/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0482	-0.938	-0.194	+0.075 ok
		Home runs	0.509 → 0.587	+0.078	0.0304	0.0259n=620 Good	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0298	-0.118	+0.120	-0.017 ok
RELIEVER Tanner Scott1.5502 BF	Closer	Hits	0.687 → 0.716	+0.028	0.2169	0.2051n=251 Good	0.22577/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2135	-0.018	+0.014	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.274 → 1.215	-0.059	0.2212	0.3011n=251 Very good	0.20987/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2872	+0.124	-0.018	-0.004 ok
		Walks	0.293 → 0.268	-0.025	0.0889	0.0710n=251 Good	0.08157/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0649	-0.028	-0.012	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.054 → 0.063	+0.008	0.0304	0.0252n=251 Good	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0291	-0.008	+0.007	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Alex Vesia1.425 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.252 → 0.262	+0.011	0.2169	0.1766n=237 Very good	0.22577/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1841	-0.057	+0.013	-0.002 ok
		Strikeouts	0.412 → 0.393	-0.019	0.2212	0.2892n=237 Very good	0.20987/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2756	+0.097	-0.016	-0.003 ok
		Walks	0.166 → 0.153	-0.014	0.0889	0.1166n=237 Poor	0.08157/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1071	+0.040	-0.011	-0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.037 → 0.042	+0.006	0.0304	0.0257n=237 Good	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0296	-0.007	+0.007	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Evan Phillips1.425 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.760 → 0.791	+0.031	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22577/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2257	0	+0.013	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.221 → 1.159	-0.063	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.20987/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2098	0	-0.016	0 ok
		Walks	0.196 → 0.179	-0.017	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08157/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0815	0	-0.011	0 ok
		Home runs	0.215 → 0.248	+0.033	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	0	+0.007	0 ok
RELIEVER Justin Wrobleski1.2147 BF	Setup Man	Hits	2.083 → 2.167	+0.084	0.2169	0.2211n=578 Average	0.22577/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2300	+0.005	+0.011	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.536 → 1.456	-0.080	0.2212	0.2062n=578 Average	0.20987/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1954	-0.018	-0.014	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.466 → 0.425	-0.040	0.0889	0.0612n=578 Very good	0.08157/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0559	-0.034	-0.009	+0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.182 → 0.209	+0.028	0.0304	0.0337n=578 Below average	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0389	+0.004	+0.006	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Edgardo Henriquez1.0475 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.197 → 0.205	+0.008	0.2169	0.1880n=242 Very good	0.22577/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1959	-0.030	+0.009	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.288 → 0.275	-0.014	0.2212	0.2754n=242 Good	0.20987/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2622	+0.057	-0.012	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.102 → 0.094	-0.009	0.0889	0.0976n=242 Average	0.08157/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0895	+0.009	-0.008	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.022 → 0.026	+0.003	0.0304	0.0212n=242 Very good	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0244	-0.010	+0.005	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Brock Stewart1.0054 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.218 → 0.227	+0.009	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22577/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2257	0	+0.009	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.222 → 0.211	-0.011	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.20987/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2098	0	-0.011	0 ok
		Walks	0.089 → 0.082	-0.007	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08157/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0815	0	-0.007	0 ok
		Home runs	0.031 → 0.035	+0.005	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	0	+0.005	0 ok
RELIEVER Kris Bubic0.9223 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.184 → 0.192	+0.008	0.2169	0.1996n=226 Good	0.22577/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2078	-0.016	+0.008	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.222 → 0.211	-0.011	0.2212	0.2408n=226 Average	0.20987/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2287	+0.018	-0.011	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.096 → 0.088	-0.008	0.0889	0.1043n=226 Below average	0.08157/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0957	+0.014	-0.007	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.024 → 0.028	+0.004	0.0304	0.0261n=226 Good	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0301	-0.004	+0.004	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Edwin Díaz0.8382 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.182 → 0.189	+0.007	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22577/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2257	0	+0.007	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.185 → 0.176	-0.009	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.20987/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2098	0	-0.009	0 ok
		Walks	0.074 → 0.068	-0.006	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08157/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0815	0	-0.006	0 ok
		Home runs	0.025 → 0.029	+0.004	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	0	+0.004	0 ok
RELIEVER Roki Sasaki0.5868 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.127 → 0.132	+0.005	0.2169	0.2166n=522 Average	0.22577/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2254	-0.000	+0.005	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.137 → 0.130	-0.007	0.2212	0.2337n=522 Average	0.20987/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2219	+0.007	-0.007	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.053 → 0.049	-0.004	0.0889	0.0913n=522 Average	0.08157/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0836	+0.001	-0.004	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.021 → 0.025	+0.003	0.0304	0.0367n=522 Poor	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0423	+0.004	+0.003	+0.001 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Dylan Dodd	Starter	14.4	5.2	4.302	3 / 1.514	7 / 3.500	3 / 0.000	3 / 0.000	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	4.2	1.0	0.993	1 / 1.054	1 / 1.024	1 / 0.197	1 / 0.317	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	4.0	1.1	0.993	1 / 0.800	1 / 0.952	0 / 0.206	1 / 0.217	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Tarik Skubal	Starter	25.9	6.1	6.419	5 / 5.428	7 / 6.258	1 / 1.241	1 / 1.672	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Justin Wrobleski	Setup Man	7.6	1.1	1.690	1 / 2.083	1 / 1.536	0 / 0.466	0 / 0.774	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Tanner Scott	Closer	4.0	1.0	1.014	1 / 0.687	0 / 1.274	1 / 0.293	2 / 0.227	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.0	0.1	1.014	2 / 0.760	1 / 1.221	1 / 0.196	1 / 0.377	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity156 checks	PASS	156 of 156 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 3
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.302
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Dylan Dodd projected 14.4 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band2 checks	PASS	2 of 2 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 6.419
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Tarik Skubal projected 25.9 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

20261003_CHW@CLE — published 4-2, 170 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20261003_CHW@CLE__20261003T173812Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-10-03T17:38:12, first pitch 2026-10-03T17:00:00.
Published 4 - 2 with p(home) 0.477002. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 0 of 3 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.879317721946314 - 3.620441997905461	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	5 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	4 - 3	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 2	-	-	-	-	no	away -0.1596; home -0.5254 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 2	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	4 - 2	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	4 - 2	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

CHW against Jordan Hicks (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHW hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 22.7448 of 37.904 projected batters (60.0%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 40.0%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Randal Grichuk	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.977 → 0.930	-0.047	0.2169	0.2384n=279 Very good	0.2064n=727 Good	0.2272	+0.084	-0.041	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9531 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2272 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.9492 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2263 vs pen 0.2056) = x0.9515 \| starter alone would have been -0.046
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.958 → 1.106	+0.148	0.2212	0.2190n=279 Average	0.2536n=727 Good	0.2512	-0.009	+0.127	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.1471 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2512 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.1663 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2554 vs pen 0.2579) = x1.1548 \| starter alone would have been +0.141
		Walkswhole staff	0.218 → 0.196	-0.023	0.0889	0.0542n=279 Poor	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.0410	-0.135	-0.082	+0.031 ok
		split	starter x0.7561 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0410 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.1025 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0598 vs pen 0.0977) = x0.8946 \| starter alone would have been -0.053
		Home runswhole staff	0.142 → 0.122	-0.020	0.0304	0.0424n=279 Very good	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0352	+0.047	-0.020	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.831 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0352 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9023 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0383 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.8595 \| starter alone would have been -0.024
Munetaka Murakami	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.790 → 0.750	-0.041	0.2169	0.1915n=544 Poor	0.2064n=727 Good	0.1820	-0.109	-0.045	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9504 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1820 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.9463 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1812 vs pen 0.2056) = x0.9488 \| starter alone would have been -0.039
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.701 → 1.917	+0.216	0.2212	0.3438n=544 Poor	0.2536n=727 Good	0.3853	+0.527	+0.139	+0.039 ok
		split	starter x1.1208 at 0.600 share (log5 0.3853 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.1361 at 0.400 share (log5 0.3906 vs pen 0.2579) = x1.1269 \| starter alone would have been +0.205
		Walkswhole staff	0.534 → 0.481	-0.052	0.0889	0.1532n=544 Very good	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.1189	+0.276	-0.090	-0.057 ok
		split	starter x0.7759 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1189 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.0908 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1671 vs pen 0.0977) = x0.9018 \| starter alone would have been -0.120
		Home runswhole staff	0.192 → 0.166	-0.027	0.0304	0.0532n=544 Very good	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0443	+0.098	-0.022	-0.016 ok
		split	starter x0.8326 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0443 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9033 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0481 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.8609 \| starter alone would have been -0.032
Tommy Pham	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.692 → 0.658	-0.034	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2064n=727 Good	0.2064	0	-0.035	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9519 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2064 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.9479 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2056 vs pen 0.2056) = x0.9503 \| starter alone would have been -0.033
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.025 → 1.183	+0.158	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2536n=727 Good	0.2536	0	+0.109	0 ok
		split	starter x1.1466 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2536 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.1657 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2579 vs pen 0.2579) = x1.1542 \| starter alone would have been +0.150
		Walkswhole staff	0.318 → 0.285	-0.033	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.0678	0	-0.071	0 ok
		split	starter x0.763 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0678 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.0984 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0977 vs pen 0.0977) = x0.8971 \| starter alone would have been -0.075
		Home runswhole staff	0.094 → 0.081	-0.013	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0252	0	-0.017	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8292 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0252 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9012 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0274 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.858 \| starter alone would have been -0.016
Chase Meidroth	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.947 → 0.901	-0.046	0.2169	0.2330n=635 Good	0.2064n=727 Good	0.2220	+0.066	-0.043	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9528 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2220 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.9489 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2210 vs pen 0.2056) = x0.9512 \| starter alone would have been -0.045
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.998 → 1.153	+0.155	0.2212	0.2176n=635 Average	0.2536n=727 Good	0.2497	-0.015	+0.133	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.1474 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2497 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.1666 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2539 vs pen 0.2579) = x1.1551 \| starter alone would have been +0.147
		Walkswhole staff	0.380 → 0.341	-0.039	0.0889	0.0936n=635 Average	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.0715	+0.019	-0.087	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.7639 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0715 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.0979 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1028 vs pen 0.0977) = x0.8975 \| starter alone would have been -0.090
		Home runswhole staff	0.096 → 0.082	-0.014	0.0304	0.0267n=635 Average	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0221	-0.015	-0.021	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8287 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0221 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9009 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0241 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.8576 \| starter alone would have been -0.016
Braden Montgomery	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.761 → 0.723	-0.038	0.2169	0.2100n=362 Below average	0.2064n=727 Good	0.1998	-0.025	-0.038	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9515 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1998 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.9474 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1990 vs pen 0.2056) = x0.9499 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.892 → 1.034	+0.142	0.2212	0.1991n=362 Average	0.2536n=727 Good	0.2293	-0.082	+0.120	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x1.1514 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2293 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.1713 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2332 vs pen 0.2579) = x1.1594 \| starter alone would have been +0.135
		Walkswhole staff	0.356 → 0.320	-0.036	0.0889	0.1010n=362 Good	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.0773	+0.044	-0.078	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.7654 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0773 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.097 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1108 vs pen 0.0977) = x0.898 \| starter alone would have been -0.084
		Home runswhole staff	0.085 → 0.072	-0.012	0.0304	0.0224n=362 Below average	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0186	-0.029	-0.019	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.828 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0186 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9005 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0202 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.857 \| starter alone would have been -0.015
Miguel Vargas	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.837 → 0.795	-0.042	0.2169	0.2136n=695 Average	0.2064n=727 Good	0.2033	-0.014	-0.045	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9517 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2033 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.9477 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2024 vs pen 0.2056) = x0.9501 \| starter alone would have been -0.041
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.863 → 1.004	+0.141	0.2212	0.1826n=695 Good	0.2536n=727 Good	0.2109	-0.168	+0.141	-0.018 ok
		split	starter x1.155 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2109 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.1754 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2146 vs pen 0.2579) = x1.1632 \| starter alone would have been +0.134
		Walkswhole staff	0.553 → 0.498	-0.055	0.0889	0.1346n=695 Very good	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.1039	+0.199	-0.092	-0.042 ok
		split	starter x0.7721 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1039 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.093 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1471 vs pen 0.0977) = x0.9004 \| starter alone would have been -0.126
		Home runswhole staff	0.168 → 0.144	-0.024	0.0304	0.0428n=695 Very good	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0355	+0.054	-0.023	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.831 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0355 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9024 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0386 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.8596 \| starter alone would have been -0.028
Brenton Doyle	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.819 → 0.778	-0.041	0.2169	0.2195n=218 Average	0.2064n=727 Good	0.2090	+0.010	-0.040	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.952 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2090 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.948 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2081 vs pen 0.2056) = x0.9504 \| starter alone would have been -0.039
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.369 → 1.555	+0.186	0.2212	0.3029n=218 Poor	0.2536n=727 Good	0.3420	+0.309	+0.123	+0.025 ok
		split	starter x1.1293 at 0.600 share (log5 0.3420 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.1458 at 0.400 share (log5 0.3470 vs pen 0.2579) = x1.1359 \| starter alone would have been +0.177
		Walkswhole staff	0.256 → 0.229	-0.027	0.0889	0.0670n=218 Below average	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.0508	-0.083	-0.080	+0.018 ok
		split	starter x0.7586 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0508 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.101 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0738 vs pen 0.0977) = x0.8955 \| starter alone would have been -0.062
		Home runswhole staff	0.092 → 0.079	-0.013	0.0304	0.0291n=218 Average	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0241	-0.005	-0.020	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.829 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0241 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9011 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0262 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.8578 \| starter alone would have been -0.016
Kyle Teel	C	Hitswhole staff	0.764 → 0.726	-0.038	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2064n=727 Good	0.2064	0	-0.038	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9519 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2064 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.9479 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2056 vs pen 0.2056) = x0.9503 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.407 → 1.623	+0.217	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2536n=727 Good	0.2536	0	+0.118	0 ok
		split	starter x1.1466 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2536 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.1657 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2579 vs pen 0.2579) = x1.1542 \| starter alone would have been +0.206
		Walkswhole staff	0.316 → 0.283	-0.033	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.0678	0	-0.077	0 ok
		split	starter x0.763 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0678 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.0984 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0977 vs pen 0.0977) = x0.8971 \| starter alone would have been -0.075
		Home runswhole staff	0.102 → 0.088	-0.015	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0252	0	-0.019	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8292 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0252 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9012 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0274 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.858 \| starter alone would have been -0.018
Colson Montgomery	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.688 → 0.652	-0.035	0.2169	0.1929n=630 Poor	0.2064n=727 Good	0.1834	-0.084	-0.037	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9505 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1834 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.9464 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1826 vs pen 0.2056) = x0.9489 \| starter alone would have been -0.034
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.506 → 1.696	+0.190	0.2212	0.3459n=630 Poor	0.2536n=727 Good	0.3875	+0.437	+0.114	+0.032 ok
		split	starter x1.1203 at 0.600 share (log5 0.3875 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.1356 at 0.400 share (log5 0.3928 vs pen 0.2579) = x1.1264 \| starter alone would have been +0.181
		Walkswhole staff	0.260 → 0.233	-0.027	0.0889	0.0836n=630 Average	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.0637	-0.019	-0.074	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.7619 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0637 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.099 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0918 vs pen 0.0977) = x0.8967 \| starter alone would have been -0.062
		Home runswhole staff	0.132 → 0.113	-0.018	0.0304	0.0436n=630 Very good	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0363	+0.046	-0.018	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.8311 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0363 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9024 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0394 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.8596 \| starter alone would have been -0.022
STARTER Hagen Smith16.4513 BF	Starter	Hits	3.413 → 3.462	+0.048	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2199	0	+0.051	0 ok
		Strikeouts	4.207 → 3.459	-0.748	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.18199/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1819	0	-0.647	0 ok
		Walks	0.000 → 0.000	0	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09279/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0927	0	+0.061	0 ok
		Home runs	0.000 → 0.000	0	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.02829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0282	0	-0.036	0 ok
RELIEVER Erick Fedde4.6937 BF	Reliever	Hits	1.057 → 1.072	+0.015	0.2169	0.2253n=606 Below average	0.21999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2284	+0.040	+0.014	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.798 → 0.649	-0.149	0.2212	0.1701n=606 Poor	0.18199/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1383	-0.240	-0.185	+0.035 ok
		Walks	0.406 → 0.423	+0.017	0.0889	0.0865n=606 Average	0.09279/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0901	-0.012	+0.018	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.163 → 0.151	-0.012	0.0304	0.0347n=606 Below average	0.02829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0322	+0.020	-0.010	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Bryan Hudson2.9994 BF	Setup Man	Hits	1.020 → 1.034	+0.014	0.2169	0.2287n=282 Below average	0.21999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2319	+0.036	+0.009	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.004 → 0.824	-0.180	0.2212	0.2119n=282 Average	0.18199/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1738	-0.028	-0.118	+0.004 ok
		Walks	0.260 → 0.271	+0.011	0.0889	0.0728n=282 Good	0.09279/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0759	-0.048	+0.011	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.085 → 0.079	-0.006	0.0304	0.0255n=282 Good	0.02829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0236	-0.015	-0.007	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Sean Burke2.9994 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.619 → 0.627	+0.009	0.2169	0.2062n=694 Good	0.21999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2092	-0.032	+0.009	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.758 → 0.628	-0.130	0.2212	0.2528n=694 Good	0.18199/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2094	+0.095	-0.118	-0.012 ok
		Walks	0.268 → 0.279	+0.011	0.0889	0.0893n=694 Average	0.09279/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0930	+0.001	+0.011	0 ok
		Home runs	0.086 → 0.080	-0.006	0.0304	0.0286n=694 Average	0.02829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0265	-0.005	-0.007	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Davis Martin2.9994 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.691 → 0.700	+0.010	0.2169	0.2302n=617 Below average	0.21999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2335	+0.040	+0.009	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.601 → 0.492	-0.109	0.2212	0.2004n=617 Below average	0.18199/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1640	-0.062	-0.118	+0.009 ok
		Walks	0.232 → 0.242	+0.010	0.0889	0.0775n=617 Good	0.09279/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0808	-0.034	+0.011	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.078 → 0.072	-0.006	0.0304	0.0259n=617 Good	0.02829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0240	-0.013	-0.007	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Sean Newcomb2.4781 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	1.881 → 1.908	+0.027	0.2169	0.2048n=369 Good	0.21999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2077	-0.030	+0.008	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.897 → 1.561	-0.335	0.2212	0.2265n=369 Average	0.18199/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1865	+0.013	-0.097	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.639 → 0.666	+0.027	0.0889	0.0912n=369 Average	0.09279/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0950	+0.006	+0.009	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.038 → 0.035	-0.003	0.0304	0.0215n=369 Very good	0.02829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0200	-0.022	-0.005	+0.002 ok
RELIEVER David Sandlin1.0426 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.226 → 0.229	+0.003	0.2169	0.2164n=167 Average	0.21999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2195	-0.001	+0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.243 → 0.201	-0.043	0.2212	0.2336n=167 Average	0.18199/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1926	+0.013	-0.041	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.087 → 0.090	+0.004	0.0889	0.0832n=167 Average	0.09279/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0867	-0.006	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.035 → 0.032	-0.003	0.0304	0.0335n=167 Below average	0.02829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0311	+0.003	-0.002	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Anthony Kay0.782 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.175 → 0.178	+0.003	0.2169	0.2242n=686 Below average	0.21999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2274	+0.006	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.144 → 0.117	-0.026	0.2212	0.1837n=686 Below average	0.18199/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1498	-0.029	-0.031	+0.004 ok
		Walks	0.064 → 0.067	+0.003	0.0889	0.0818n=686 Average	0.09279/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0853	-0.006	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.024 → 0.022	-0.002	0.0304	0.0305n=686 Average	0.02829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0283	+0.000	-0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Huascar Brazobán0.391 BF	Middle Reliever	Hits	0.481 → 0.488	+0.007	0.2169	0.1901n=257 Very good	0.21999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1929	-0.010	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.095 → 0.899	-0.196	0.2212	0.2128n=257 Average	0.18199/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1746	-0.003	-0.015	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.356 → 0.371	+0.015	0.0889	0.0989n=257 Below average	0.09279/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1030	+0.004	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.040 → 0.037	-0.003	0.0304	0.0264n=257 Good	0.02829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0245	-0.002	-0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Grant Taylor0.391 BF	Closer	Hits	1.116 → 1.132	+0.016	0.2169	0.1974n=333 Good	0.21999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2003	-0.008	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	2.638 → 2.207	-0.431	0.2212	0.2970n=333 Very good	0.18199/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2485	+0.030	-0.015	-0.004 ok
		Walks	0.526 → 0.548	+0.022	0.0889	0.0897n=333 Average	0.09279/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0935	+0.000	+0.002	0 ok
		Home runs	0.103 → 0.096	-0.007	0.0304	0.0264n=333 Good	0.02829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0245	-0.002	-0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Jordan Hicks0.391 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.909 → 0.922	+0.013	0.2169	0.2054n=216 Good	0.21999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2084	-0.004	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.575 → 1.312	-0.264	0.2212	0.2760n=216 Good	0.18199/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2298	+0.021	-0.015	-0.003 ok
		Walks	0.680 → 0.708	+0.027	0.0889	0.1258n=216 Poor	0.09279/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1309	+0.014	+0.002	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.114 → 0.105	-0.008	0.0304	0.0265n=216 Good	0.02829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0246	-0.002	-0.001	+0.000 ok

CLE against Shawn Armstrong (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CLE hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 16.4513 of 35.617 projected batters (46.2%) and the 5 projected relievers for the remaining 53.8%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is OUTSIDE that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Steven Kwan	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.885 → 0.889	+0.004	0.2169	0.2296n=620 Good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2296	+0.057	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.2296 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0085 at 0.538 share (log5 0.2316 vs pen 0.2188) = x1.0046 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.556 → 0.540	-0.015	0.2212	0.1013n=620 Very good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1013	-0.536	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.1013 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9484 at 0.538 share (log5 0.0961 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9722 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.588 → 0.574	-0.014	0.0889	0.1280n=620 Very good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1280	+0.175	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.1280 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9547 at 0.538 share (log5 0.1222 vs pen 0.0847) = x0.9756 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.047 → 0.046	-0.002	0.0304	0.0125n=620 Poor	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0125	-0.080	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.0125 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9366 at 0.538 share (log5 0.0117 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9659 \| starter alone would have been 0
Jo Adell	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.808 → 0.812	+0.004	0.2169	0.2185n=656 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2185	+0.006	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.2185 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0087 at 0.538 share (log5 0.2203 vs pen 0.2188) = x1.0047 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.166 → 1.138	-0.028	0.2212	0.2367n=656 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2367	+0.063	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.2367 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9559 at 0.538 share (log5 0.2262 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9763 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.304 → 0.296	-0.008	0.0889	0.0575n=656 Poor	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0575	-0.128	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.0575 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9512 at 0.538 share (log5 0.0547 vs pen 0.0847) = x0.9737 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.129 → 0.124	-0.004	0.0304	0.0337n=656 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0337	+0.014	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.0337 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9379 at 0.538 share (log5 0.0316 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9666 \| starter alone would have been 0
David Fry	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.633 → 0.636	+0.003	0.2169	0.2019n=211 Below average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2019	-0.053	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.2019 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0089 at 0.538 share (log5 0.2037 vs pen 0.2188) = x1.0048 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.095 → 1.070	-0.025	0.2212	0.2648n=211 Below average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2648	+0.155	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.2648 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9574 at 0.538 share (log5 0.2535 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9771 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.434 → 0.423	-0.011	0.0889	0.1139n=211 Good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1139	+0.089	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.1139 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.954 at 0.538 share (log5 0.1086 vs pen 0.0847) = x0.9752 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.107 → 0.104	-0.004	0.0304	0.0337n=211 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0337	+0.012	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.0337 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9379 at 0.538 share (log5 0.0316 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9666 \| starter alone would have been 0
José Ramírez	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.826 → 0.830	+0.004	0.2169	0.2095n=531 Below average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2095	-0.034	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.2095 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0088 at 0.538 share (log5 0.2113 vs pen 0.2188) = x1.0047 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.714 → 0.695	-0.019	0.2212	0.1376n=531 Very good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1376	-0.385	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.1376 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9504 at 0.538 share (log5 0.1308 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9733 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.599 → 0.584	-0.015	0.0889	0.1086n=531 Good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1086	+0.091	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.1086 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9538 at 0.538 share (log5 0.1036 vs pen 0.0847) = x0.9751 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.102 → 0.098	-0.003	0.0304	0.0252n=531 Below average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0252	-0.024	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.0252 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9373 at 0.538 share (log5 0.0236 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9663 \| starter alone would have been 0
Angel Martínez	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.827 → 0.830	+0.004	0.2169	0.2293n=408 Good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2293	+0.049	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.2293 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0085 at 0.538 share (log5 0.2312 vs pen 0.2188) = x1.0046 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.074 → 1.048	-0.026	0.2212	0.2185n=408 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2185	-0.011	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.2185 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9548 at 0.538 share (log5 0.2086 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9757 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.232 → 0.226	-0.006	0.0889	0.0429n=408 Poor	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0429	-0.182	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.0429 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9505 at 0.538 share (log5 0.0407 vs pen 0.0847) = x0.9734 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.145 → 0.140	-0.005	0.0304	0.0387n=408 Good	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0387	+0.033	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.0387 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9382 at 0.538 share (log5 0.0363 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9667 \| starter alone would have been 0
Travis Bazzana	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.715 → 0.718	+0.003	0.2169	0.2129n=506 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2129	-0.015	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.2129 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0087 at 0.538 share (log5 0.2148 vs pen 0.2188) = x1.0047 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.980 → 0.956	-0.024	0.2212	0.2087n=506 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2087	-0.048	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.2087 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9543 at 0.538 share (log5 0.1992 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9754 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.419 → 0.408	-0.011	0.0889	0.1033n=506 Good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1033	+0.055	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.1033 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9535 at 0.538 share (log5 0.0985 vs pen 0.0847) = x0.975 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.099 → 0.096	-0.003	0.0304	0.0299n=506 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0299	-0.002	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.0299 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9376 at 0.538 share (log5 0.0280 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9664 \| starter alone would have been 0
Chase DeLauter	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.890 → 0.894	+0.004	0.2169	0.2364n=543 Very good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2364	+0.084	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.2364 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0085 at 0.538 share (log5 0.2384 vs pen 0.2188) = x1.0046 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.827 → 0.805	-0.022	0.2212	0.1534n=543 Good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1534	-0.291	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.1534 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9513 at 0.538 share (log5 0.1459 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9738 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.469 → 0.457	-0.012	0.0889	0.1051n=543 Good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1051	+0.069	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.1051 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9536 at 0.538 share (log5 0.1002 vs pen 0.0847) = x0.975 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.111 → 0.108	-0.004	0.0304	0.0298n=543 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0298	-0.003	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.0298 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9376 at 0.538 share (log5 0.0279 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9664 \| starter alone would have been 0
Austin Hedges	C	Hitswhole staff	0.655 → 0.659	+0.003	0.2169	0.2144n=243 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2144	-0.009	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.2144 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0087 at 0.538 share (log5 0.2162 vs pen 0.2188) = x1.0047 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.769 → 0.750	-0.019	0.2212	0.1912n=243 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1912	-0.105	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.1912 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9533 at 0.538 share (log5 0.1823 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9749 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.420 → 0.410	-0.011	0.0889	0.0983n=243 Average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0983	+0.033	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.0983 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9533 at 0.538 share (log5 0.0937 vs pen 0.0847) = x0.9749 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.086 → 0.083	-0.003	0.0304	0.0277n=243 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0277	-0.010	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.0277 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9375 at 0.538 share (log5 0.0259 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9664 \| starter alone would have been 0
Brayan Rocchio	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.704 → 0.707	+0.003	0.2169	0.2238n=576 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2238	+0.025	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.2238 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0086 at 0.538 share (log5 0.2258 vs pen 0.2188) = x1.0046 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.641 → 0.624	-0.017	0.2212	0.1501n=576 Good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1501	-0.250	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.1501 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9511 at 0.538 share (log5 0.1428 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9737 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.302 → 0.294	-0.008	0.0889	0.0699n=576 Below average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0699	-0.067	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.0699 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9519 at 0.538 share (log5 0.0665 vs pen 0.0847) = x0.9741 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.081 → 0.078	-0.003	0.0304	0.0250n=576 Below average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0250	-0.019	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.462 share (log5 0.0250 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9373 at 0.538 share (log5 0.0235 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9663 \| starter alone would have been 0
STARTER Parker Messick22.7448 BF	Starter	Hits	5.384 → 5.332	-0.052	0.2169	0.2064n=727 Good	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2044	-0.237	-0.048	+0.002 ok
		Strikeouts	5.103 → 5.738	+0.634	0.2212	0.2536n=727 Good	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2852	+0.738	+0.656	+0.061 ok
		Walks	1.355 → 1.492	+0.136	0.0889	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.09767/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0747	-0.479	+0.198	-0.043 ok
		Home runs	0.533 → 0.633	+0.100	0.0304	0.0252n=727 Good	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0299	-0.118	+0.129	-0.021 ok
RELIEVER Joey Cantillo2.7378 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.580 → 0.574	-0.006	0.2169	0.2118n=687 Average	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2097	-0.014	-0.006	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.673 → 0.758	+0.085	0.2212	0.2460n=687 Good	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2769	+0.068	+0.079	+0.006 ok
		Walks	0.308 → 0.337	+0.029	0.0889	0.1125n=687 Below average	0.09767/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1232	+0.065	+0.024	+0.005 ok
		Home runs	0.074 → 0.088	+0.014	0.0304	0.0270n=687 Good	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0320	-0.009	+0.015	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Hunter Gaddis2.6892 BF	Setup Man	Hits	1.085 → 1.074	-0.011	0.2169	0.2138n=252 Average	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2118	-0.008	-0.006	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.759 → 0.858	+0.099	0.2212	0.2220n=252 Average	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2509	+0.002	+0.078	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.315 → 0.346	+0.031	0.0889	0.0879n=252 Average	0.09767/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0965	-0.003	+0.023	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.167 → 0.198	+0.031	0.0304	0.0294n=252 Average	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0349	-0.003	+0.015	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Cade Smith2.2981 BF	Closer	Hits	0.569 → 0.563	-0.006	0.2169	0.1909n=281 Very good	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1890	-0.060	-0.005	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.247 → 1.384	+0.137	0.2212	0.3315n=281 Very good	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3679	+0.254	+0.066	+0.017 ok
		Walks	0.294 → 0.324	+0.029	0.0889	0.0776n=281 Good	0.09767/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0853	-0.026	+0.020	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.049 → 0.058	+0.009	0.0304	0.0255n=281 Good	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0303	-0.011	+0.013	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Matt Festa1.9555 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.430 → 0.426	-0.004	0.2169	0.2199n=278 Average	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2177	+0.006	-0.004	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.452 → 0.510	+0.058	0.2212	0.2310n=278 Average	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2607	+0.019	+0.056	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.157 → 0.173	+0.016	0.0889	0.0804n=278 Average	0.09767/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0883	-0.017	+0.017	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.053 → 0.063	+0.010	0.0304	0.0270n=278 Good	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0321	-0.007	+0.011	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Tim Herrin1.9555 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.397 → 0.393	-0.004	0.2169	0.2029n=237 Good	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2010	-0.027	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.442 → 0.499	+0.057	0.2212	0.2262n=237 Average	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2554	+0.010	+0.056	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.208 → 0.228	+0.020	0.0889	0.1065n=237 Below average	0.09767/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1167	+0.034	+0.017	+0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.053 → 0.063	+0.010	0.0304	0.0272n=237 Average	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0322	-0.006	+0.011	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Erik Sabrowski1.81 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.452 → 0.447	-0.004	0.2169	0.1819n=194 Very good	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1801	-0.063	-0.004	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.312 → 1.455	+0.143	0.2212	0.3346n=194 Very good	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3712	+0.205	+0.052	+0.014 ok
		Walks	0.682 → 0.745	+0.064	0.0889	0.1280n=194 Poor	0.09767/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1400	+0.071	+0.016	+0.006 ok
		Home runs	0.045 → 0.054	+0.009	0.0304	0.0259n=194 Good	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0307	-0.008	+0.010	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Daniel Espino1.1733 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.255 → 0.252	-0.003	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2148	0	-0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.260 → 0.293	+0.034	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2501	0	+0.034	0 ok
		Walks	0.104 → 0.115	+0.010	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09767/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0976	0	+0.010	0 ok
		Home runs	0.036 → 0.042	+0.007	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0360	0	+0.007	0 ok
RELIEVER Shawn Armstrong0.5382 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.112 → 0.111	-0.001	0.2169	0.2076n=148 Average	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2056	-0.005	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.117 → 0.133	+0.015	0.2212	0.2180n=148 Average	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2465	-0.002	+0.015	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.056 → 0.062	+0.005	0.0889	0.1048n=148 Below average	0.09767/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1148	+0.009	+0.005	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.015 → 0.018	+0.003	0.0304	0.0279n=148 Average	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0331	-0.001	+0.003	-0.000 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Hagen Smith	Starter	16.5	5.0	4.346	2 / 3.413	5 / 4.207	2 / 0.000	0 / 0.000	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Grant Taylor	Closer	6.7	1.1	1.672	2 / 1.116	1 / 2.638	0 / 0.526	2 / 0.333	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	8.5	1.1	2.006	0 / 1.881	1 / 1.897	0 / 0.639	0 / 0.819	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Bryan Hudson	Setup Man	4.3	1.0	1.003	0 / 1.020	0 / 1.004	0 / 0.260	0 / 0.317	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.6	0.1	1.003	0 / 0.909	1 / 1.575	0 / 0.680	0 / 0.488	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	3.8	0.0	1.003	1 / 0.481	1 / 1.095	0 / 0.356	0 / 0.229	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Parker Messick	Starter	22.7	6.0	5.335	5 / 5.384	5 / 5.103	1 / 1.355	3 / 1.744	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Cade Smith	Closer	3.9	1.0	1.000	0 / 0.569	0 / 1.247	0 / 0.294	0 / 0.169	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.1	2.0	1.000	1 / 0.452	0 / 1.312	1 / 0.682	1 / 0.214	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	4.4	0.0	1.000	1 / 1.085	0 / 0.759	1 / 0.315	0 / 0.382	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity152 checks	PASS	152 of 152 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 6
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.346
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Hagen Smith projected 16.5 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band5 checks	PASS	5 of 5 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.335
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Parker Messick projected 22.7 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

20261003_NYY@TB — published 3-4, 151 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20261003_NYY@TB__20261003T223732Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-10-03T22:37:32, first pitch 2026-10-03T22:30:00.
Published 3 - 4 with p(home) 0.518365. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 0 of 3 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.330188683970775 - 4.7654968017036134	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	away -0.0719; home -0.1452 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

NYY against Will Warren (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to NYY hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 23.4551 of 35.726 projected batters (65.6%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 34.4%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Spencer Jones	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.870 → 0.801	-0.070	0.2169	0.2177n=283 Average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1968	+0.004	-0.085	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.904 at 0.656 share (log5 0.1968 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9504 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2069 vs pen 0.2061) = x0.9199 \| starter alone would have been -0.084
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.522 → 1.673	+0.152	0.2212	0.3460n=283 Poor	0.2559n=669 Good	0.3905	+0.506	+0.141	+0.040 ok
		split	starter x1.1286 at 0.656 share (log5 0.3905 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.0442 at 0.344 share (log5 0.3613 vs pen 0.2329) = x1.0996 \| starter alone would have been +0.196
		Walkswhole staff	0.269 → 0.188	-0.081	0.0889	0.0885n=283 Average	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0554	-0.002	-0.135	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.6259 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0554 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8382 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0742 vs pen 0.0745) = x0.6988 \| starter alone would have been -0.101
		Home runswhole staff	0.154 → 0.135	-0.019	0.0304	0.0348n=283 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0283	+0.018	-0.023	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.814 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0283 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x0.9987 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0347 vs pen 0.0303) = x0.8774 \| starter alone would have been -0.029
Cody Bellinger	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.937 → 0.863	-0.074	0.2169	0.2269n=549 Good	0.1960n=669 Good	0.2054	+0.043	-0.090	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.905 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2054 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9509 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2158 vs pen 0.2061) = x0.9208 \| starter alone would have been -0.089
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.700 → 0.792	+0.092	0.2212	0.1619n=549 Good	0.2559n=669 Good	0.1896	-0.256	+0.150	-0.030 ok
		split	starter x1.171 at 0.656 share (log5 0.1896 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.0573 at 0.344 share (log5 0.1712 vs pen 0.2329) = x1.1319 \| starter alone would have been +0.120
		Walkswhole staff	0.332 → 0.233	-0.099	0.0889	0.1027n=549 Good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0646	+0.059	-0.144	-0.021 ok
		split	starter x0.6296 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0646 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8403 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0863 vs pen 0.0745) = x0.702 \| starter alone would have been -0.123
		Home runswhole staff	0.136 → 0.120	-0.017	0.0304	0.0295n=549 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0240	-0.004	-0.025	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8132 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0240 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x0.9987 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0295 vs pen 0.0303) = x0.8769 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
George Lombard Jr.	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.875 → 0.805	-0.070	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1960	0	-0.083	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9039 at 0.656 share (log5 0.1960 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9503 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2061 vs pen 0.2061) = x0.9198 \| starter alone would have been -0.084
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.126 → 1.262	+0.137	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2559	0	+0.138	0 ok
		split	starter x1.157 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2559 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.0531 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2329 vs pen 0.2329) = x1.1213 \| starter alone would have been +0.177
		Walkswhole staff	0.206 → 0.144	-0.062	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0557	0	-0.132	0 ok
		split	starter x0.626 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0557 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8382 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0745 vs pen 0.0745) = x0.6989 \| starter alone would have been -0.077
		Home runswhole staff	0.154 → 0.135	-0.019	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0247	0	-0.022	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8133 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0247 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x0.9987 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0303 vs pen 0.0303) = x0.877 \| starter alone would have been -0.029
Ben Rice	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.849 → 0.782	-0.068	0.2169	0.2240n=651 Average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.2027	+0.030	-0.087	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9047 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2027 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9508 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2130 vs pen 0.2061) = x0.9205 \| starter alone would have been -0.081
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.117 → 1.249	+0.132	0.2212	0.2398n=651 Average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2764	+0.078	+0.146	+0.008 ok
		split	starter x1.1526 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2764 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.0517 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2522 vs pen 0.2329) = x1.1179 \| starter alone would have been +0.171
		Walkswhole staff	0.388 → 0.274	-0.114	0.0889	0.1228n=651 Very good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0780	+0.142	-0.140	-0.049 ok
		split	starter x0.6349 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0780 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8433 at 0.344 share (log5 0.1036 vs pen 0.0745) = x0.7065 \| starter alone would have been -0.142
		Home runswhole staff	0.248 → 0.218	-0.030	0.0304	0.0536n=651 Very good	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0438	+0.097	-0.024	-0.017 ok
		split	starter x0.817 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0438 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x0.9988 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0535 vs pen 0.0303) = x0.8794 \| starter alone would have been -0.045
Luis García Jr.	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.949 → 0.875	-0.074	0.2169	0.2435n=539 Very good	0.1960n=669 Good	0.2208	+0.108	-0.085	-0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.9068 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2208 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9519 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2318 vs pen 0.2061) = x0.9223 \| starter alone would have been -0.088
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.823 → 0.929	+0.106	0.2212	0.1817n=539 Good	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2119	-0.161	+0.141	-0.018 ok
		split	starter x1.1662 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2119 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.0559 at 0.344 share (log5 0.1918 vs pen 0.2329) = x1.1283 \| starter alone would have been +0.137
		Walkswhole staff	0.172 → 0.119	-0.053	0.0889	0.0541n=539 Poor	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0334	-0.142	-0.135	+0.051 ok
		split	starter x0.6172 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0334 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8331 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0451 vs pen 0.0745) = x0.6914 \| starter alone would have been -0.066
		Home runswhole staff	0.215 → 0.189	-0.026	0.0304	0.0473n=539 Very good	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0386	+0.069	-0.023	-0.012 ok
		split	starter x0.816 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0386 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x0.9988 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0473 vs pen 0.0303) = x0.8788 \| starter alone would have been -0.040
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.728 → 0.669	-0.059	0.2169	0.2095n=526 Below average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1892	-0.027	-0.076	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9031 at 0.656 share (log5 0.1892 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9499 at 0.344 share (log5 0.1990 vs pen 0.2061) = x0.9192 \| starter alone would have been -0.071
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.150 → 1.276	+0.126	0.2212	0.2902n=526 Below average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.3311	+0.252	+0.127	+0.023 ok
		split	starter x1.1411 at 0.656 share (log5 0.3311 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.0481 at 0.344 share (log5 0.3042 vs pen 0.2329) = x1.1092 \| starter alone would have been +0.162
		Walkswhole staff	0.279 → 0.196	-0.083	0.0889	0.1032n=526 Good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0650	+0.052	-0.121	-0.018 ok
		split	starter x0.6297 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0650 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8404 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0867 vs pen 0.0745) = x0.7021 \| starter alone would have been -0.103
		Home runswhole staff	0.126 → 0.111	-0.015	0.0304	0.0342n=526 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0278	+0.014	-0.021	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8139 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0278 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x0.9987 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0342 vs pen 0.0303) = x0.8774 \| starter alone would have been -0.024
Trent Grisham	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.779 → 0.715	-0.064	0.2169	0.1996n=474 Poor	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1800	-0.065	-0.078	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.902 at 0.656 share (log5 0.1800 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9493 at 0.344 share (log5 0.1895 vs pen 0.2061) = x0.9182 \| starter alone would have been -0.076
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.773 → 0.872	+0.099	0.2212	0.1871n=474 Good	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2179	-0.128	+0.131	-0.015 ok
		split	starter x1.165 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2179 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.0555 at 0.344 share (log5 0.1974 vs pen 0.2329) = x1.1274 \| starter alone would have been +0.128
		Walkswhole staff	0.327 → 0.231	-0.096	0.0889	0.1190n=474 Very good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0754	+0.113	-0.125	-0.039 ok
		split	starter x0.6339 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0754 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8427 at 0.344 share (log5 0.1003 vs pen 0.0745) = x0.7056 \| starter alone would have been -0.120
		Home runswhole staff	0.148 → 0.130	-0.018	0.0304	0.0339n=474 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0276	+0.013	-0.021	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8139 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0276 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x0.9987 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0339 vs pen 0.0303) = x0.8774 \| starter alone would have been -0.028
Austin Wells	C	Hitswhole staff	0.589 → 0.541	-0.049	0.2169	0.1904n=387 Poor	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1715	-0.085	-0.067	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.9009 at 0.656 share (log5 0.1715 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9487 at 0.344 share (log5 0.1806 vs pen 0.2061) = x0.9173 \| starter alone would have been -0.058
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.842 → 0.938	+0.097	0.2212	0.2588n=387 Below average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2972	+0.120	+0.111	+0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.1482 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2972 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.0504 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2719 vs pen 0.2329) = x1.1146 \| starter alone would have been +0.125
		Walkswhole staff	0.271 → 0.191	-0.080	0.0889	0.1158n=387 Good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0733	+0.086	-0.106	-0.030 ok
		split	starter x0.633 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0733 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8422 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0975 vs pen 0.0745) = x0.7049 \| starter alone would have been -0.100
		Home runswhole staff	0.131 → 0.115	-0.016	0.0304	0.0338n=387 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0275	+0.011	-0.018	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8139 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0275 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x0.9987 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0338 vs pen 0.0303) = x0.8774 \| starter alone would have been -0.024
Ryan McMahon	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.651 → 0.599	-0.053	0.2169	0.2083n=354 Below average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1881	-0.028	-0.068	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9029 at 0.656 share (log5 0.1881 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9498 at 0.344 share (log5 0.1979 vs pen 0.2061) = x0.919 \| starter alone would have been -0.063
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.103 → 1.225	+0.121	0.2212	0.2850n=354 Below average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.3256	+0.209	+0.114	+0.019 ok
		split	starter x1.1423 at 0.656 share (log5 0.3256 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.0485 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2988 vs pen 0.2329) = x1.1101 \| starter alone would have been +0.157
		Walkswhole staff	0.206 → 0.143	-0.062	0.0889	0.0816n=354 Average	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0509	-0.024	-0.109	+0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.6241 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0509 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8371 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0683 vs pen 0.0745) = x0.6973 \| starter alone would have been -0.077
		Home runswhole staff	0.105 → 0.092	-0.013	0.0304	0.0308n=354 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0250	+0.001	-0.019	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8134 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0250 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x0.9987 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0307 vs pen 0.0303) = x0.8771 \| starter alone would have been -0.020
STARTER Gerrit Cole23.6187 BF	Starter	Hits	5.527 → 5.888	+0.361	0.2169	0.2199n=519 Average	0.23119/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2343	+0.071	+0.336	+0.003 ok
		Strikeouts	5.867 → 4.734	-1.133	0.2212	0.2482n=519 Good	0.17739/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2003	+0.638	-1.038	-0.094 ok
		Walks	0.983 → 0.980	-0.003	0.0889	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.08879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0575	-0.738	-0.006	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	1.809 → 1.816	+0.007	0.0304	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.03059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0370	+0.152	+0.003	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER John Schreiber2.4856 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.519 → 0.553	+0.034	0.2169	0.2088n=246 Average	0.23119/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2227	-0.020	+0.035	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.440 → 0.349	-0.091	0.2212	0.1770n=246 Below average	0.17739/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1403	-0.110	-0.109	+0.018 ok
		Walks	0.246 → 0.246	-0.001	0.0889	0.0991n=246 Below average	0.08879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0989	+0.025	-0.001	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.074 → 0.074	+0.000	0.0304	0.0297n=246 Average	0.03059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0298	-0.002	+0.000	0 ok
RELIEVER David Bednar2.2697 BF	Closer	Hits	0.704 → 0.751	+0.047	0.2169	0.2027n=277 Good	0.23119/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2163	-0.032	+0.032	-0.002 ok
		Strikeouts	1.108 → 0.897	-0.211	0.2212	0.2624n=277 Good	0.17739/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2125	+0.094	-0.100	-0.013 ok
		Walks	0.371 → 0.370	-0.001	0.0889	0.0783n=277 Good	0.08879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0780	-0.024	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.052 → 0.052	+0.000	0.0304	0.0243n=277 Very good	0.03059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0244	-0.014	+0.000	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Paul Blackburn2.2164 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.440 → 0.470	+0.030	0.2169	0.1987n=329 Good	0.23119/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2120	-0.040	+0.032	-0.002 ok
		Strikeouts	0.454 → 0.362	-0.092	0.2212	0.2046n=329 Average	0.17739/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1633	-0.037	-0.097	+0.006 ok
		Walks	0.210 → 0.209	-0.001	0.0889	0.0946n=329 Average	0.08879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0943	+0.013	-0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.059 → 0.059	+0.000	0.0304	0.0265n=329 Good	0.03059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0266	-0.009	+0.000	0 ok
RELIEVER Brent Headrick2.2164 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.606 → 0.646	+0.040	0.2169	0.2125n=326 Average	0.23119/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2266	-0.010	+0.032	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.903 → 0.736	-0.168	0.2212	0.2849n=326 Very good	0.17739/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2321	+0.141	-0.097	-0.020 ok
		Walks	0.310 → 0.309	-0.001	0.0889	0.0848n=326 Average	0.08879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0846	-0.009	-0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.083 → 0.083	+0.000	0.0304	0.0240n=326 Very good	0.03059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0241	-0.014	+0.000	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Ryan Yarbrough1.7833 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.371 → 0.396	+0.025	0.2169	0.2080n=253 Average	0.23119/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2218	-0.016	+0.025	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.346 → 0.276	-0.071	0.2212	0.1943n=253 Below average	0.17739/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1547	-0.048	-0.078	+0.008 ok
		Walks	0.152 → 0.152	-0.000	0.0889	0.0853n=253 Average	0.08879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0850	-0.006	-0.000	0 ok
		Home runs	0.042 → 0.042	+0.000	0.0304	0.0237n=253 Very good	0.03059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0238	-0.012	+0.000	0 ok
RELIEVER Will Warren1.7299 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.397 → 0.422	+0.026	0.2169	0.2293n=673 Below average	0.23119/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2441	+0.021	+0.025	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.401 → 0.323	-0.079	0.2212	0.2320n=673 Average	0.17739/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1864	+0.019	-0.076	-0.003 ok
		Walks	0.140 → 0.139	-0.000	0.0889	0.0807n=673 Average	0.08879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0805	-0.014	-0.000	0 ok
		Home runs	0.053 → 0.054	+0.000	0.0304	0.0309n=673 Average	0.03059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0310	+0.001	+0.000	0 ok

TB against Ian Seymour (LHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to TB hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 23.6187 of 36.32 projected batters (65.0%) and the 2 projected relievers for the remaining 35.0%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Liam Hicks	C	Hitswhole staff	0.954 → 0.951	-0.003	0.2169	0.2335n=551 Good	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2367	+0.066	+0.012	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0136 at 0.650 share (log5 0.2367 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.9657 at 0.350 share (log5 0.2255 vs pen 0.2093) = x0.9968 \| starter alone would have been +0.013
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.457 → 0.503	+0.046	0.2212	0.1080n=551 Very good	0.2482n=519 Good	0.1234	-0.445	+0.106	-0.046 ok
		split	starter x1.1425 at 0.650 share (log5 0.1234 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0241 at 0.350 share (log5 0.1106 vs pen 0.2258) = x1.1011 \| starter alone would have been +0.065
		Walkswhole staff	0.297 → 0.228	-0.069	0.0889	0.0994n=551 Average	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0647	+0.041	-0.123	-0.013 ok
		split	starter x0.6511 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0647 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9859 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0980 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.7682 \| starter alone would have been -0.104
		Home runswhole staff	0.138 → 0.151	+0.013	0.0304	0.0319n=551 Average	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0387	+0.006	+0.025	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.2118 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0387 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8725 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0279 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0931 \| starter alone would have been +0.029
Junior Caminero	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.912 → 0.909	-0.003	0.2169	0.2330n=695 Good	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2361	+0.064	+0.012	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0136 at 0.650 share (log5 0.2361 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.9657 at 0.350 share (log5 0.2250 vs pen 0.2093) = x0.9968 \| starter alone would have been +0.012
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.788 → 0.860	+0.072	0.2212	0.1853n=695 Good	0.2482n=519 Good	0.2091	-0.143	+0.108	-0.013 ok
		split	starter x1.1285 at 0.650 share (log5 0.2091 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.022 at 0.350 share (log5 0.1893 vs pen 0.2258) = x1.0913 \| starter alone would have been +0.101
		Walkswhole staff	0.310 → 0.239	-0.071	0.0889	0.1100n=695 Good	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0719	+0.084	-0.124	-0.027 ok
		split	starter x0.6538 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0719 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.986 at 0.350 share (log5 0.1085 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.77 \| starter alone would have been -0.107
		Home runswhole staff	0.214 → 0.234	+0.019	0.0304	0.0522n=695 Very good	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0629	+0.087	+0.026	+0.017 ok
		split	starter x1.2065 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0629 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8748 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0456 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0905 \| starter alone would have been +0.044
Yandy Díaz	DH	Hitswhole staff	1.140 → 1.137	-0.004	0.2169	0.2464n=678 Very good	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2496	+0.128	+0.013	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0133 at 0.650 share (log5 0.2496 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.9663 at 0.350 share (log5 0.2380 vs pen 0.2093) = x0.9969 \| starter alone would have been +0.015
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.728 → 0.798	+0.070	0.2212	0.1455n=678 Very good	0.2482n=519 Good	0.1653	-0.329	+0.117	-0.032 ok
		split	starter x1.1356 at 0.650 share (log5 0.1653 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0231 at 0.350 share (log5 0.1489 vs pen 0.2258) = x1.0963 \| starter alone would have been +0.099
		Walkswhole staff	0.262 → 0.200	-0.061	0.0889	0.0835n=678 Average	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0541	-0.023	-0.136	+0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.6471 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0541 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9856 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0823 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.7655 \| starter alone would have been -0.092
		Home runswhole staff	0.153 → 0.167	+0.014	0.0304	0.0319n=678 Average	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0386	+0.006	+0.028	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.2118 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0386 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8725 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0278 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0931 \| starter alone would have been +0.032
Jonny DeLuca	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.932 → 0.929	-0.003	0.2169	0.2346n=363 Good	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2378	+0.067	+0.011	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0135 at 0.650 share (log5 0.2378 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.9658 at 0.350 share (log5 0.2266 vs pen 0.2093) = x0.9968 \| starter alone would have been +0.013
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.925 → 1.006	+0.081	0.2212	0.2132n=363 Average	0.2482n=519 Good	0.2395	-0.030	+0.102	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.1236 at 0.650 share (log5 0.2395 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0212 at 0.350 share (log5 0.2177 vs pen 0.2258) = x1.0878 \| starter alone would have been +0.114
		Walkswhole staff	0.159 → 0.121	-0.038	0.0889	0.0572n=363 Poor	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0367	-0.119	-0.118	+0.040 ok
		split	starter x0.6406 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0367 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9852 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0564 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.7611 \| starter alone would have been -0.057
		Home runswhole staff	0.123 → 0.135	+0.011	0.0304	0.0303n=363 Average	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0368	-0.000	+0.024	0 ok
		split	starter x1.2122 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0368 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8723 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0265 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0933 \| starter alone would have been +0.026
Jonathan Aranda	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.988 → 0.985	-0.003	0.2169	0.2302n=661 Good	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2333	+0.055	+0.012	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0136 at 0.650 share (log5 0.2333 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.9656 at 0.350 share (log5 0.2223 vs pen 0.2093) = x0.9968 \| starter alone would have been +0.013
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.099 → 1.191	+0.092	0.2212	0.2420n=661 Average	0.2482n=519 Good	0.2707	+0.086	+0.112	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x1.1185 at 0.650 share (log5 0.2707 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0204 at 0.350 share (log5 0.2470 vs pen 0.2258) = x1.0842 \| starter alone would have been +0.130
		Walkswhole staff	0.316 → 0.242	-0.073	0.0889	0.1007n=661 Good	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0656	+0.049	-0.129	-0.016 ok
		split	starter x0.6514 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0656 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9859 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0993 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.7684 \| starter alone would have been -0.110
		Home runswhole staff	0.139 → 0.152	+0.013	0.0304	0.0325n=661 Average	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0393	+0.009	+0.027	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.2117 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0393 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8725 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0283 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0931 \| starter alone would have been +0.029
Richie Palacios	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.760 → 0.757	-0.002	0.2169	0.2110n=396 Average	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2140	-0.020	+0.010	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.014 at 0.650 share (log5 0.2140 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.9648 at 0.350 share (log5 0.2036 vs pen 0.2093) = x0.9968 \| starter alone would have been +0.011
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.667 → 0.729	+0.062	0.2212	0.1749n=396 Good	0.2482n=519 Good	0.1977	-0.159	+0.093	-0.015 ok
		split	starter x1.1304 at 0.650 share (log5 0.1977 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0223 at 0.350 share (log5 0.1788 vs pen 0.2258) = x1.0926 \| starter alone would have been +0.087
		Walkswhole staff	0.285 → 0.219	-0.066	0.0889	0.1099n=396 Good	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0718	+0.072	-0.107	-0.023 ok
		split	starter x0.6537 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0718 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.986 at 0.350 share (log5 0.1083 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.7699 \| starter alone would have been -0.099
		Home runswhole staff	0.097 → 0.106	+0.009	0.0304	0.0273n=396 Average	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0331	-0.011	+0.022	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.213 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0331 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8719 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0238 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0937 \| starter alone would have been +0.021
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.918 → 0.915	-0.003	0.2169	0.2223n=259 Average	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2254	+0.021	+0.012	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0138 at 0.650 share (log5 0.2254 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.9652 at 0.350 share (log5 0.2146 vs pen 0.2093) = x0.9968 \| starter alone would have been +0.013
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.864 → 0.940	+0.076	0.2212	0.2073n=259 Average	0.2482n=519 Good	0.2331	-0.054	+0.104	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.1246 at 0.650 share (log5 0.2331 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0214 at 0.350 share (log5 0.2117 vs pen 0.2258) = x1.0885 \| starter alone would have been +0.108
		Walkswhole staff	0.250 → 0.192	-0.058	0.0889	0.0888n=259 Average	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0576	-0.000	-0.120	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.6484 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0576 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9857 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0876 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.7664 \| starter alone would have been -0.088
		Home runswhole staff	0.180 → 0.197	+0.017	0.0304	0.0421n=259 Good	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0509	+0.045	+0.025	+0.009 ok
		split	starter x1.2091 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0509 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8736 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0368 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0918 \| starter alone would have been +0.038
Taylor Walls	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.672 → 0.670	-0.002	0.2169	0.2028n=430 Below average	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2056	-0.047	+0.010	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0141 at 0.650 share (log5 0.2056 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.9644 at 0.350 share (log5 0.1956 vs pen 0.2093) = x0.9967 \| starter alone would have been +0.009
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.896 → 0.971	+0.075	0.2212	0.2418n=430 Average	0.2482n=519 Good	0.2705	+0.069	+0.091	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.1185 at 0.650 share (log5 0.2705 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0204 at 0.350 share (log5 0.2468 vs pen 0.2258) = x1.0842 \| starter alone would have been +0.106
		Walkswhole staff	0.264 → 0.203	-0.061	0.0889	0.1012n=430 Good	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0660	+0.041	-0.105	-0.013 ok
		split	starter x0.6516 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0660 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9859 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0998 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.7685 \| starter alone would have been -0.092
		Home runswhole staff	0.049 → 0.054	+0.005	0.0304	0.0144n=430 Poor	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0176	-0.053	+0.022	-0.011 ok
		split	starter x1.2165 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0176 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8705 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0126 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0955 \| starter alone would have been +0.011
Chandler Simpson	LF	Hitswhole staff	1.117 → 1.113	-0.004	0.2169	0.2576n=606 Very good	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2610	+0.162	+0.012	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0131 at 0.650 share (log5 0.2610 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.9668 at 0.350 share (log5 0.2490 vs pen 0.2093) = x0.9969 \| starter alone would have been +0.015
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.382 → 0.421	+0.040	0.2212	0.0898n=606 Very good	0.2482n=519 Good	0.1029	-0.522	+0.107	-0.055 ok
		split	starter x1.1458 at 0.650 share (log5 0.1029 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0246 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0920 vs pen 0.2258) = x1.1034 \| starter alone would have been +0.056
		Walkswhole staff	0.156 → 0.118	-0.037	0.0889	0.0505n=606 Poor	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0322	-0.153	-0.124	+0.052 ok
		split	starter x0.639 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0322 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9851 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0497 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.76 \| starter alone would have been -0.056
		Home runswhole staff	0.040 → 0.043	+0.004	0.0304	0.0092n=606 Poor	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0112	-0.084	+0.026	-0.018 ok
		split	starter x1.2179 at 0.650 share (log5 0.0112 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8699 at 0.350 share (log5 0.0080 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0962 \| starter alone would have been +0.009
STARTER Drew Rasmussen23.4551 BF	Starter	Hits	4.174 → 4.163	-0.011	0.2169	0.1960n=669 Good	0.21638/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1955	-0.489	-0.013	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	4.772 → 5.141	+0.369	0.2212	0.2559n=669 Good	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2757	+0.814	+0.422	+0.043 ok
		Walks	1.245 → 1.366	+0.120	0.0889	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.09728/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0611	-0.780	+0.194	-0.068 ok
		Home runs	0.303 → 0.366	+0.064	0.0304	0.0247n=669 Good	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0299	-0.133	+0.149	-0.027 ok
RELIEVER Steven Matz2.4885 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.539 → 0.538	-0.001	0.2169	0.2166n=342 Average	0.21638/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2161	-0.001	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.464 → 0.504	+0.040	0.2212	0.1865n=342 Below average	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2024	-0.086	+0.045	-0.005 ok
		Walks	0.194 → 0.213	+0.018	0.0889	0.0781n=342 Good	0.09728/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0855	-0.027	+0.021	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.090 → 0.109	+0.019	0.0304	0.0362n=342 Poor	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0438	+0.015	+0.016	+0.003 ok
RELIEVER Cole Sulser2.3744 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.523 → 0.522	-0.001	0.2169	0.2203n=236 Average	0.21638/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2197	+0.008	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.554 → 0.598	+0.044	0.2212	0.2332n=236 Average	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2518	+0.029	+0.043	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.187 → 0.205	+0.018	0.0889	0.0788n=236 Good	0.09728/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0862	-0.024	+0.020	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.072 → 0.087	+0.015	0.0304	0.0301n=236 Average	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0365	-0.001	+0.015	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Kevin Kelly2.3744 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.847 → 0.845	-0.002	0.2169	0.2073n=279 Average	0.21638/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2067	-0.023	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.757 → 0.819	+0.061	0.2212	0.2248n=279 Average	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2430	+0.009	+0.043	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.119 → 0.130	+0.011	0.0889	0.0573n=279 Very good	0.09728/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0628	-0.075	+0.020	-0.006 ok
		Home runs	0.065 → 0.079	+0.014	0.0304	0.0270n=279 Good	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0327	-0.008	+0.015	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Bryan Baker1.81 BF	Closer	Hits	0.617 → 0.616	-0.002	0.2169	0.1836n=244 Very good	0.21638/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1831	-0.060	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.694 → 0.748	+0.054	0.2212	0.2490n=244 Good	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2685	+0.050	+0.033	+0.003 ok
		Walks	0.290 → 0.317	+0.027	0.0889	0.0897n=244 Average	0.09728/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0980	+0.001	+0.015	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.050 → 0.060	+0.011	0.0304	0.0254n=244 Good	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0308	-0.009	+0.011	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Cam Booser1.5265 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.567 → 0.565	-0.002	0.2169	0.1990n=152 Good	0.21638/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1985	-0.027	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.867 → 0.932	+0.066	0.2212	0.2702n=152 Good	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2907	+0.075	+0.027	+0.004 ok
		Walks	0.120 → 0.131	+0.011	0.0889	0.0646n=152 Very good	0.09728/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0708	-0.037	+0.013	-0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.099 → 0.120	+0.021	0.0304	0.0310n=152 Average	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0375	+0.001	+0.010	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Tyler Wells1.1314 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.219 → 0.218	-0.001	0.2169	0.1936n=273 Very good	0.21638/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1931	-0.026	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.287 → 0.310	+0.022	0.2212	0.2541n=273 Good	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2738	+0.037	+0.020	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.084 → 0.092	+0.008	0.0889	0.0743n=273 Good	0.09728/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0814	-0.017	+0.009	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.034 → 0.041	+0.007	0.0304	0.0300n=273 Average	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0363	-0.001	+0.007	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Garrett Cleavinger0.3387 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.072 → 0.072	-0.000	0.2169	0.2121n=181 Average	0.21638/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2116	-0.002	-0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.093 → 0.100	+0.007	0.2212	0.2747n=181 Good	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2953	+0.018	+0.006	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.036 → 0.039	+0.003	0.0889	0.1064n=181 Below average	0.09728/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1161	+0.006	+0.003	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.011 → 0.013	+0.002	0.0304	0.0312n=181 Average	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0377	+0.000	+0.002	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Ian Seymour0.2258 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.048 → 0.047	-0.000	0.2169	0.2104n=551 Average	0.21638/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2098	-0.002	-0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.063 → 0.068	+0.005	0.2212	0.2784n=551 Very good	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2993	+0.013	+0.004	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.016 → 0.018	+0.002	0.0889	0.0706n=551 Good	0.09728/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0773	-0.004	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.009 → 0.011	+0.002	0.0304	0.0387n=551 Poor	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0467	+0.002	+0.001	+0.000 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Gerrit Cole	Starter	23.6	5.2	5.703	7 / 5.527	6 / 5.867	3 / 0.983	3 / 2.798	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	2.9	1.2	0.671	0 / 0.606	1 / 0.903	0 / 0.310	0 / 0.228	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
David Bednar	Closer	4.1	0.2	1.006	1 / 0.704	0 / 1.108	0 / 0.371	1 / 0.199	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Drew Rasmussen	Starter	23.5	6.0	6.012	1 / 4.174	5 / 4.772	3 / 1.245	2 / 1.261	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Bryan Baker	Closer	3.9	1.0	1.002	1 / 0.617	0 / 0.694	1 / 0.290	0 / 0.110	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	3.7	1.0	1.002	1 / 0.567	0 / 0.867	0 / 0.120	1 / 0.179	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	4.0	1.0	1.002	1 / 0.847	0 / 0.757	0 / 0.119	0 / 0.258	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity136 checks	PASS	136 of 136 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 3
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.703
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Gerrit Cole projected 23.6 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band2 checks	PASS	2 of 2 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 6.012
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Drew Rasmussen projected 23.5 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

20261003_SD@MIL — published 4-6, 164 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20261003_SD@MIL__20261004T003703Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-10-04T00:37:03, first pitch 2026-10-04T00:30:00.
Published 4 - 6 with p(home) 0.530000. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 1 of 1 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	3.7426866281279048 - 6.328560068290372	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 6	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	5 - 6	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 6	-	-	-	-	no	away -0.8995; home +0.4826 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 6	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	4 - 6	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	4 - 6	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

SD against Joe Musgrove (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to SD hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 21.6371 of 37.243 projected batters (58.1%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 41.9%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Ty France	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.840 → 0.711	-0.129	0.2169	0.2398n=500 Very good	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1869	+0.094	-0.202	-0.016 ok
		split	starter x0.7792 at 0.581 share (log5 0.1869 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.94 at 0.419 share (log5 0.2254 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.8466 \| starter alone would have been -0.186
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.259 → 1.778	+0.519	0.2212	0.2165n=500 Average	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.3529	-0.019	+0.568	-0.007 ok
		split	starter x1.6303 at 0.581 share (log5 0.3529 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1101 at 0.419 share (log5 0.2403 vs pen 0.2454) = x1.4123 \| starter alone would have been +0.793
		Walkswhole staff	0.299 → 0.274	-0.025	0.0889	0.0769n=500 Below average	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0627	-0.050	-0.067	+0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.816 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0627 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0525 at 0.419 share (log5 0.0809 vs pen 0.0935) = x0.9151 \| starter alone would have been -0.055
		Home runswhole staff	0.151 → 0.124	-0.027	0.0304	0.0380n=500 Good	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0295	+0.031	-0.028	-0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.7758 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0295 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8864 at 0.419 share (log5 0.0337 vs pen 0.0269) = x0.8221 \| starter alone would have been -0.034
Manny Machado	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.714 → 0.600	-0.114	0.2169	0.2000n=677 Poor	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1541	-0.072	-0.208	+0.013 ok
		split	starter x0.7703 at 0.581 share (log5 0.1541 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.9371 at 0.419 share (log5 0.1874 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.8402 \| starter alone would have been -0.164
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.242 → 1.758	+0.515	0.2212	0.2133n=677 Average	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.3486	-0.034	+0.587	-0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.6345 at 0.581 share (log5 0.3486 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1106 at 0.419 share (log5 0.2369 vs pen 0.2454) = x1.415 \| starter alone would have been +0.788
		Walkswhole staff	0.430 → 0.394	-0.035	0.0889	0.1088n=677 Good	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0893	+0.084	-0.069	-0.014 ok
		split	starter x0.8212 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0893 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0506 at 0.419 share (log5 0.1143 vs pen 0.0935) = x0.9173 \| starter alone would have been -0.077
		Home runswhole staff	0.166 → 0.136	-0.029	0.0304	0.0404n=677 Good	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0314	+0.043	-0.029	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.7763 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0314 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8866 at 0.419 share (log5 0.0358 vs pen 0.0269) = x0.8225 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
Dustin Harris	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.807 → 0.680	-0.127	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1679	0	-0.206	0 ok
		split	starter x0.774 at 0.581 share (log5 0.1679 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.9383 at 0.419 share (log5 0.2035 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.8428 \| starter alone would have been -0.182
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.905 → 1.274	+0.369	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.3593	0	+0.579	0 ok
		split	starter x1.6241 at 0.581 share (log5 0.3593 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1094 at 0.419 share (log5 0.2454 vs pen 0.2454) = x1.4084 \| starter alone would have been +0.565
		Walkswhole staff	0.311 → 0.285	-0.026	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0727	0	-0.068	0 ok
		split	starter x0.818 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0727 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0518 at 0.419 share (log5 0.0935 vs pen 0.0935) = x0.916 \| starter alone would have been -0.057
		Home runswhole staff	0.079 → 0.065	-0.014	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0235	0	-0.029	0 ok
		split	starter x0.7745 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0235 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8856 at 0.419 share (log5 0.0269 vs pen 0.0269) = x0.8211 \| starter alone would have been -0.018
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.874 → 0.740	-0.134	0.2169	0.2416n=704 Very good	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1884	+0.107	-0.212	-0.018 ok
		split	starter x0.7796 at 0.581 share (log5 0.1884 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.9401 at 0.419 share (log5 0.2272 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.8468 \| starter alone would have been -0.193
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.143 → 1.642	+0.500	0.2212	0.1870n=704 Good	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.3123	-0.148	+0.597	-0.055 ok
		split	starter x1.6698 at 0.581 share (log5 0.3123 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1147 at 0.419 share (log5 0.2085 vs pen 0.2454) = x1.4372 \| starter alone would have been +0.765
		Walkswhole staff	0.363 → 0.333	-0.030	0.0889	0.0906n=704 Average	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0742	+0.007	-0.070	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8183 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0742 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0517 at 0.419 share (log5 0.0953 vs pen 0.0935) = x0.9161 \| starter alone would have been -0.066
		Home runswhole staff	0.146 → 0.120	-0.026	0.0304	0.0341n=704 Average	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0264	+0.016	-0.030	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.7751 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0264 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.886 at 0.419 share (log5 0.0302 vs pen 0.0269) = x0.8216 \| starter alone would have been -0.033
Luis Campusano	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.715 → 0.603	-0.112	0.2169	0.2215n=248 Average	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1717	+0.018	-0.191	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.7751 at 0.581 share (log5 0.1717 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.9386 at 0.419 share (log5 0.2080 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.8436 \| starter alone would have been -0.161
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.142 → 1.614	+0.472	0.2212	0.2149n=248 Average	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.3508	-0.024	+0.537	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x1.6323 at 0.581 share (log5 0.3508 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1103 at 0.419 share (log5 0.2387 vs pen 0.2454) = x1.4136 \| starter alone would have been +0.722
		Walkswhole staff	0.385 → 0.353	-0.032	0.0889	0.1106n=248 Good	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0908	+0.084	-0.063	-0.014 ok
		split	starter x0.8215 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0908 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0505 at 0.419 share (log5 0.1162 vs pen 0.0935) = x0.9175 \| starter alone would have been -0.069
		Home runswhole staff	0.115 → 0.094	-0.021	0.0304	0.0313n=248 Average	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0242	+0.004	-0.027	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.7746 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0242 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8857 at 0.419 share (log5 0.0277 vs pen 0.0269) = x0.8212 \| starter alone would have been -0.026
Ethan Salas	C	Hitswhole staff	0.625 → 0.526	-0.098	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1679	0	-0.163	0 ok
		split	starter x0.774 at 0.581 share (log5 0.1679 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.9383 at 0.419 share (log5 0.2035 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.8428 \| starter alone would have been -0.141
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.054 → 1.484	+0.430	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.3593	0	+0.460	0 ok
		split	starter x1.6241 at 0.581 share (log5 0.3593 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1094 at 0.419 share (log5 0.2454 vs pen 0.2454) = x1.4084 \| starter alone would have been +0.657
		Walkswhole staff	0.243 → 0.223	-0.021	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0727	0	-0.054	0 ok
		split	starter x0.818 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0727 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0518 at 0.419 share (log5 0.0935 vs pen 0.0935) = x0.916 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
		Home runswhole staff	0.108 → 0.089	-0.019	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0235	0	-0.023	0 ok
		split	starter x0.7745 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0235 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8856 at 0.419 share (log5 0.0269 vs pen 0.0269) = x0.8211 \| starter alone would have been -0.024
Jackson Merrill	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.807 → 0.681	-0.125	0.2169	0.2277n=664 Good	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1768	+0.045	-0.201	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.7764 at 0.581 share (log5 0.1768 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.9391 at 0.419 share (log5 0.2139 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.8446 \| starter alone would have been -0.180
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.367 → 1.905	+0.538	0.2212	0.2396n=664 Average	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.3835	+0.075	+0.566	+0.024 ok
		split	starter x1.6005 at 0.581 share (log5 0.3835 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1065 at 0.419 share (log5 0.2651 vs pen 0.2454) = x1.3935 \| starter alone would have been +0.821
		Walkswhole staff	0.282 → 0.258	-0.024	0.0889	0.0659n=664 Below average	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0536	-0.095	-0.066	+0.016 ok
		split	starter x0.8142 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0536 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0532 at 0.419 share (log5 0.0694 vs pen 0.0935) = x0.9143 \| starter alone would have been -0.052
		Home runswhole staff	0.148 → 0.122	-0.026	0.0304	0.0367n=664 Good	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0284	+0.026	-0.028	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.7756 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0284 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8862 at 0.419 share (log5 0.0325 vs pen 0.0269) = x0.8219 \| starter alone would have been -0.033
Xander Bogaerts	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.664 → 0.558	-0.105	0.2169	0.2059n=606 Below average	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1589	-0.042	-0.190	+0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.7716 at 0.581 share (log5 0.1589 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.9375 at 0.419 share (log5 0.1931 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.8411 \| starter alone would have been -0.152
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.962 → 1.386	+0.424	0.2212	0.1829n=606 Good	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.3065	-0.148	+0.535	-0.056 ok
		split	starter x1.6755 at 0.581 share (log5 0.3065 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1153 at 0.419 share (log5 0.2040 vs pen 0.2454) = x1.4408 \| starter alone would have been +0.650
		Walkswhole staff	0.425 → 0.390	-0.035	0.0889	0.1208n=606 Very good	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0994	+0.123	-0.063	-0.020 ok
		split	starter x0.8232 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0994 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0499 at 0.419 share (log5 0.1268 vs pen 0.0935) = x0.9182 \| starter alone would have been -0.075
		Home runswhole staff	0.091 → 0.074	-0.016	0.0304	0.0242n=606 Below average	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0187	-0.024	-0.026	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.7733 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0187 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8849 at 0.419 share (log5 0.0214 vs pen 0.0269) = x0.8201 \| starter alone would have been -0.021
Jake Cronenworth	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.647 → 0.545	-0.103	0.2169	0.2086n=425 Below average	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.1611	-0.030	-0.180	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.7722 at 0.581 share (log5 0.1611 vs his 0.1679) + bullpen x0.9377 at 0.419 share (log5 0.1956 vs pen 0.2035) = x0.8415 \| starter alone would have been -0.147
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.131 → 1.587	+0.456	0.2212	0.2275n=425 Average	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.3676	+0.023	+0.506	+0.008 ok
		split	starter x1.6159 at 0.581 share (log5 0.3676 vs his 0.3593) + bullpen x1.1084 at 0.419 share (log5 0.2522 vs pen 0.2454) = x1.4033 \| starter alone would have been +0.697
		Walkswhole staff	0.327 → 0.300	-0.028	0.0889	0.0893n=425 Average	0.0727n=640 Good	0.0731	+0.001	-0.059	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.818 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0731 vs his 0.0727) + bullpen x1.0518 at 0.419 share (log5 0.0939 vs pen 0.0935) = x0.916 \| starter alone would have been -0.059
		Home runswhole staff	0.077 → 0.063	-0.014	0.0304	0.0218n=425 Below average	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.0169	-0.032	-0.025	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.7729 at 0.581 share (log5 0.0169 vs his 0.0235) + bullpen x0.8847 at 0.419 share (log5 0.0193 vs pen 0.0269) = x0.8197 \| starter alone would have been -0.017
STARTER Robbie Ray22.5508 BF	Starter	Hits	4.800 → 4.985	+0.185	0.2169	0.2074n=679 Average	0.22519/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2154	-0.214	+0.187	-0.006 ok
		Strikeouts	3.710 → 3.879	+0.170	0.2212	0.1972n=679 Below average	0.23109/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2063	-0.541	+0.221	-0.018 ok
		Walks	2.922 → 3.364	+0.442	0.0889	0.1148n=679 Poor	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1321	+0.583	+0.313	+0.078 ok
		Home runs	0.711 → 0.674	-0.036	0.0304	0.0316n=679 Average	0.02889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0300	+0.027	-0.035	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Mason Miller2.8901 BF	Closer	Hits	0.660 → 0.687	+0.026	0.2169	0.1780n=272 Very good	0.22519/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1852	-0.112	+0.024	-0.003 ok
		Strikeouts	1.643 → 1.697	+0.054	0.2212	0.4166n=272 Very good	0.23109/9 qualified lineup mean	0.4303	+0.565	+0.028	+0.011 ok
		Walks	0.426 → 0.492	+0.066	0.0889	0.0931n=272 Average	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1076	+0.012	+0.040	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.035 → 0.033	-0.002	0.0304	0.0231n=272 Very good	0.02889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0219	-0.021	-0.004	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Adrian Morejon2.601 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.953 → 0.990	+0.037	0.2169	0.1993n=352 Good	0.22519/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2071	-0.046	+0.021	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.420 → 1.477	+0.057	0.2212	0.2886n=352 Very good	0.23109/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3003	+0.175	+0.025	+0.005 ok
		Walks	0.552 → 0.639	+0.087	0.0889	0.0824n=352 Average	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0954	-0.017	+0.036	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.047 → 0.045	-0.003	0.0304	0.0220n=352 Very good	0.02889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0209	-0.022	-0.004	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Bradgley Rodriguez2.601 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.866 → 0.899	+0.034	0.2169	0.2063n=301 Good	0.22519/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2143	-0.027	+0.021	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.373 → 1.431	+0.058	0.2212	0.2590n=301 Good	0.23109/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2699	+0.098	+0.025	+0.003 ok
		Walks	0.426 → 0.494	+0.068	0.0889	0.0742n=301 Good	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0860	-0.038	+0.036	-0.005 ok
		Home runs	0.054 → 0.052	-0.003	0.0304	0.0262n=301 Good	0.02889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0248	-0.011	-0.004	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER David Morgan2.2159 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.490 → 0.508	+0.019	0.2169	0.2210n=162 Average	0.22519/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2293	+0.009	+0.018	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.519 → 0.542	+0.023	0.2212	0.2343n=162 Average	0.23109/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2445	+0.029	+0.022	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.250 → 0.288	+0.038	0.0889	0.1127n=162 Below average	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1298	+0.053	+0.031	+0.007 ok
		Home runs	0.057 → 0.054	-0.003	0.0304	0.0256n=162 Good	0.02889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0243	-0.011	-0.004	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Yuki Matsui2.1672 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.394 → 0.410	+0.016	0.2169	0.1819n=260 Very good	0.22519/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1892	-0.076	+0.018	-0.002 ok
		Strikeouts	0.546 → 0.569	+0.023	0.2212	0.2520n=260 Good	0.23109/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2627	+0.067	+0.021	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.260 → 0.298	+0.039	0.0889	0.1198n=260 Poor	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1378	+0.067	+0.030	+0.009 ok
		Home runs	0.063 → 0.060	-0.003	0.0304	0.0291n=260 Average	0.02889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0276	-0.003	-0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Randy Vásquez1.6376 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.381 → 0.395	+0.014	0.2169	0.2324n=587 Below average	0.22519/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2411	+0.025	+0.013	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.257 → 0.270	+0.012	0.2212	0.1570n=587 Poor	0.23109/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1645	-0.105	+0.016	-0.004 ok
		Walks	0.112 → 0.130	+0.018	0.0889	0.0685n=587 Very good	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0795	-0.033	+0.023	-0.005 ok
		Home runs	0.047 → 0.044	-0.002	0.0304	0.0286n=587 Average	0.02889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0271	-0.003	-0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Jason Adam0.6742 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.145 → 0.150	+0.005	0.2169	0.2150n=142 Average	0.22519/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2233	-0.001	+0.006	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.121 → 0.126	+0.006	0.2212	0.1789n=142 Below average	0.23109/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1872	-0.029	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.054 → 0.063	+0.009	0.0889	0.0802n=142 Average	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0928	-0.006	+0.009	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.021 → 0.020	-0.001	0.0304	0.0316n=142 Average	0.02889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0299	+0.001	-0.001	0 ok
RELIEVER Joe Musgrove0.4337 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.094 → 0.098	+0.004	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22519/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2251	0	+0.004	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.096 → 0.100	+0.004	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23109/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2310	0	+0.004	0 ok
		Walks	0.039 → 0.045	+0.006	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1028	0	+0.006	0 ok
		Home runs	0.013 → 0.013	-0.001	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.02889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0288	0	-0.001	0 ok

MIL against Shane Drohan (LHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to MIL hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 22.5508 of 37.77 projected batters (59.7%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 40.3%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
William Contreras	C	Hitswhole staff	0.922 → 0.873	-0.049	0.2169	0.2303n=630 Good	0.2074n=679 Average	0.2204	+0.060	-0.042	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9569 at 0.597 share (log5 0.2204 vs his 0.2074) + bullpen x0.9321 at 0.403 share (log5 0.2147 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9469 \| starter alone would have been -0.040
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.689 → 0.714	+0.025	0.2212	0.1529n=630 Good	0.1972n=679 Below average	0.1350	-0.304	-0.107	+0.027 ok
		split	starter x0.8832 at 0.597 share (log5 0.1350 vs his 0.1972) + bullpen x1.2641 at 0.403 share (log5 0.1933 vs pen 0.2738) = x1.0367 \| starter alone would have been -0.081
		Walkswhole staff	0.560 → 0.663	+0.103	0.0889	0.0942n=630 Average	0.1148n=679 Poor	0.1214	+0.024	+0.115	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.2884 at 0.597 share (log5 0.1214 vs his 0.1148) + bullpen x1.0273 at 0.403 share (log5 0.0968 vs pen 0.0914) = x1.1832 \| starter alone would have been +0.162
		Home runswhole staff	0.113 → 0.109	-0.004	0.0304	0.0291n=630 Average	0.0316n=679 Average	0.0303	-0.006	+0.005	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.04 at 0.597 share (log5 0.0303 vs his 0.0316) + bullpen x0.8497 at 0.403 share (log5 0.0247 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.9633 \| starter alone would have been +0.004
Brice Turang	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.916 → 0.867	-0.049	0.2169	0.2264n=666 Good	0.2074n=679 Average	0.2166	+0.042	-0.042	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9567 at 0.597 share (log5 0.2166 vs his 0.2074) + bullpen x0.9318 at 0.403 share (log5 0.2110 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9467 \| starter alone would have been -0.040
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.141 → 1.174	+0.033	0.2212	0.2473n=666 Below average	0.1972n=679 Below average	0.2213	+0.114	-0.105	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.8949 at 0.597 share (log5 0.2213 vs his 0.1972) + bullpen x1.228 at 0.403 share (log5 0.3037 vs pen 0.2738) = x1.0291 \| starter alone would have been -0.120
		Walkswhole staff	0.616 → 0.724	+0.108	0.0889	0.1243n=666 Very good	0.1148n=679 Poor	0.1586	+0.155	+0.113	+0.037 ok
		split	starter x1.2762 at 0.597 share (log5 0.1586 vs his 0.1148) + bullpen x1.0263 at 0.403 share (log5 0.1276 vs pen 0.0914) = x1.1755 \| starter alone would have been +0.170
		Home runswhole staff	0.117 → 0.112	-0.004	0.0304	0.0312n=666 Average	0.0316n=679 Average	0.0325	+0.004	+0.005	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0399 at 0.597 share (log5 0.0325 vs his 0.0316) + bullpen x0.85 at 0.403 share (log5 0.0265 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.9634 \| starter alone would have been +0.005
Jackson Chourio	LF	Hitswhole staff	1.062 → 1.006	-0.055	0.2169	0.2457n=567 Very good	0.2074n=679 Average	0.2353	+0.134	-0.044	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9577 at 0.597 share (log5 0.2353 vs his 0.2074) + bullpen x0.9334 at 0.403 share (log5 0.2293 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9479 \| starter alone would have been -0.045
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.064 → 1.095	+0.032	0.2212	0.2351n=567 Average	0.1972n=679 Below average	0.2101	+0.065	-0.111	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8934 at 0.597 share (log5 0.2101 vs his 0.1972) + bullpen x1.2325 at 0.403 share (log5 0.2898 vs pen 0.2738) = x1.03 \| starter alone would have been -0.113
		Walkswhole staff	0.529 → 0.627	+0.098	0.0889	0.0839n=567 Average	0.1148n=679 Poor	0.1085	-0.023	+0.120	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.2927 at 0.597 share (log5 0.1085 vs his 0.1148) + bullpen x1.0276 at 0.403 share (log5 0.0863 vs pen 0.0914) = x1.1859 \| starter alone would have been +0.155
		Home runswhole staff	0.168 → 0.162	-0.006	0.0304	0.0397n=567 Good	0.0316n=679 Average	0.0413	+0.043	+0.006	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0395 at 0.597 share (log5 0.0413 vs his 0.0316) + bullpen x0.8511 at 0.403 share (log5 0.0338 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.9636 \| starter alone would have been +0.007
Jake Bauers	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.851 → 0.805	-0.046	0.2169	0.2179n=567 Average	0.2074n=679 Average	0.2084	+0.004	-0.041	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9562 at 0.597 share (log5 0.2084 vs his 0.2074) + bullpen x0.9311 at 0.403 share (log5 0.2029 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9461 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.171 → 1.203	+0.032	0.2212	0.2676n=567 Below average	0.1972n=679 Below average	0.2402	+0.199	-0.102	-0.015 ok
		split	starter x0.8974 at 0.597 share (log5 0.2402 vs his 0.1972) + bullpen x1.2205 at 0.403 share (log5 0.3266 vs pen 0.2738) = x1.0276 \| starter alone would have been -0.120
		Walkswhole staff	0.690 → 0.806	+0.117	0.0889	0.1510n=567 Very good	0.1148n=679 Poor	0.1911	+0.265	+0.111	+0.061 ok
		split	starter x1.2656 at 0.597 share (log5 0.1911 vs his 0.1148) + bullpen x1.0255 at 0.403 share (log5 0.1548 vs pen 0.0914) = x1.1689 \| starter alone would have been +0.183
		Home runswhole staff	0.148 → 0.143	-0.005	0.0304	0.0397n=567 Good	0.0316n=679 Average	0.0413	+0.040	+0.005	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0395 at 0.597 share (log5 0.0413 vs his 0.0316) + bullpen x0.8511 at 0.403 share (log5 0.0338 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.9636 \| starter alone would have been +0.006
Luis Lara	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.846 → 0.800	-0.046	0.2169	0.2182n=208 Average	0.2074n=679 Average	0.2087	+0.006	-0.039	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9562 at 0.597 share (log5 0.2087 vs his 0.2074) + bullpen x0.9311 at 0.403 share (log5 0.2032 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9461 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.913 → 0.942	+0.028	0.2212	0.2212n=208 Average	0.1972n=679 Below average	0.1972	-0.000	-0.097	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8916 at 0.597 share (log5 0.1972 vs his 0.1972) + bullpen x1.2378 at 0.403 share (log5 0.2738 vs pen 0.2738) = x1.0311 \| starter alone would have been -0.099
		Walkswhole staff	0.450 → 0.533	+0.084	0.0889	0.0843n=208 Average	0.1148n=679 Poor	0.1090	-0.018	+0.105	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.2925 at 0.597 share (log5 0.1090 vs his 0.1148) + bullpen x1.0276 at 0.403 share (log5 0.0867 vs pen 0.0914) = x1.1858 \| starter alone would have been +0.132
		Home runswhole staff	0.073 → 0.070	-0.003	0.0304	0.0191n=208 Poor	0.0316n=679 Average	0.0199	-0.046	+0.005	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0404 at 0.597 share (log5 0.0199 vs his 0.0316) + bullpen x0.8484 at 0.403 share (log5 0.0162 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.963 \| starter alone would have been +0.003
Joey Ortiz	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.826 → 0.782	-0.044	0.2169	0.2271n=403 Good	0.2074n=679 Average	0.2172	+0.039	-0.036	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9567 at 0.597 share (log5 0.2172 vs his 0.2074) + bullpen x0.9318 at 0.403 share (log5 0.2116 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9467 \| starter alone would have been -0.036
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.797 → 0.823	+0.026	0.2212	0.2010n=403 Average	0.1972n=679 Below average	0.1787	-0.078	-0.092	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.8891 at 0.597 share (log5 0.1787 vs his 0.1972) + bullpen x1.2455 at 0.403 share (log5 0.2503 vs pen 0.2738) = x1.0327 \| starter alone would have been -0.088
		Walkswhole staff	0.445 → 0.527	+0.082	0.0889	0.0873n=403 Average	0.1148n=679 Poor	0.1128	-0.006	+0.099	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.2913 at 0.597 share (log5 0.1128 vs his 0.1148) + bullpen x1.0275 at 0.403 share (log5 0.0897 vs pen 0.0914) = x1.185 \| starter alone would have been +0.130
		Home runswhole staff	0.092 → 0.088	-0.003	0.0304	0.0255n=403 Below average	0.0316n=679 Average	0.0265	-0.019	+0.005	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0402 at 0.597 share (log5 0.0265 vs his 0.0316) + bullpen x0.8492 at 0.403 share (log5 0.0217 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.9632 \| starter alone would have been +0.004
Cooper Pratt	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.845 → 0.800	-0.045	0.2169	0.2255n=258 Good	0.2074n=679 Average	0.2158	+0.035	-0.038	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9566 at 0.597 share (log5 0.2158 vs his 0.2074) + bullpen x0.9317 at 0.403 share (log5 0.2101 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9466 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.748 → 0.773	+0.025	0.2212	0.1851n=258 Good	0.1972n=679 Below average	0.1642	-0.144	-0.096	+0.012 ok
		split	starter x0.8872 at 0.597 share (log5 0.1642 vs his 0.1972) + bullpen x1.2516 at 0.403 share (log5 0.2317 vs pen 0.2738) = x1.034 \| starter alone would have been -0.084
		Walkswhole staff	0.494 → 0.585	+0.091	0.0889	0.0917n=258 Average	0.1148n=679 Poor	0.1183	+0.011	+0.103	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.2895 at 0.597 share (log5 0.1183 vs his 0.1148) + bullpen x1.0274 at 0.403 share (log5 0.0942 vs pen 0.0914) = x1.1839 \| starter alone would have been +0.143
		Home runswhole staff	0.079 → 0.076	-0.003	0.0304	0.0211n=258 Below average	0.0316n=679 Average	0.0220	-0.037	+0.005	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0403 at 0.597 share (log5 0.0220 vs his 0.0316) + bullpen x0.8486 at 0.403 share (log5 0.0179 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.9631 \| starter alone would have been +0.003
Christian Yelich	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.853 → 0.807	-0.046	0.2169	0.2108n=487 Average	0.2074n=679 Average	0.2015	-0.025	-0.040	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9558 at 0.597 share (log5 0.2015 vs his 0.2074) + bullpen x0.9305 at 0.403 share (log5 0.1962 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9456 \| starter alone would have been -0.038
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.143 → 1.174	+0.031	0.2212	0.2684n=487 Below average	0.1972n=679 Below average	0.2409	+0.198	-0.101	-0.015 ok
		split	starter x0.8975 at 0.597 share (log5 0.2409 vs his 0.1972) + bullpen x1.2202 at 0.403 share (log5 0.3275 vs pen 0.2738) = x1.0275 \| starter alone would have been -0.117
		Walkswhole staff	0.485 → 0.573	+0.088	0.0889	0.0983n=487 Average	0.1148n=679 Poor	0.1265	+0.040	+0.109	+0.010 ok
		split	starter x1.2868 at 0.597 share (log5 0.1265 vs his 0.1148) + bullpen x1.0271 at 0.403 share (log5 0.1010 vs pen 0.0914) = x1.1822 \| starter alone would have been +0.139
		Home runswhole staff	0.094 → 0.091	-0.004	0.0304	0.0267n=487 Average	0.0316n=679 Average	0.0277	-0.016	+0.005	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0401 at 0.597 share (log5 0.0277 vs his 0.0316) + bullpen x0.8494 at 0.403 share (log5 0.0226 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.9633 \| starter alone would have been +0.004
Garrett Mitchell	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.795 → 0.752	-0.043	0.2169	0.2215n=519 Average	0.2074n=679 Average	0.2118	+0.017	-0.036	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9564 at 0.597 share (log5 0.2118 vs his 0.2074) + bullpen x0.9314 at 0.403 share (log5 0.2063 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9463 \| starter alone would have been -0.035
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.235 → 1.266	+0.031	0.2212	0.3061n=519 Poor	0.1972n=679 Below average	0.2762	+0.319	-0.090	-0.022 ok
		split	starter x0.9023 at 0.597 share (log5 0.2762 vs his 0.1972) + bullpen x1.2065 at 0.403 share (log5 0.3693 vs pen 0.2738) = x1.0249 \| starter alone would have been -0.121
		Walkswhole staff	0.454 → 0.535	+0.081	0.0889	0.1091n=519 Good	0.1148n=679 Poor	0.1399	+0.076	+0.097	+0.019 ok
		split	starter x1.2824 at 0.597 share (log5 0.1399 vs his 0.1148) + bullpen x1.0268 at 0.403 share (log5 0.1120 vs pen 0.0914) = x1.1794 \| starter alone would have been +0.128
		Home runswhole staff	0.079 → 0.076	-0.003	0.0304	0.0243n=519 Below average	0.0316n=679 Average	0.0253	-0.023	+0.005	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0402 at 0.597 share (log5 0.0253 vs his 0.0316) + bullpen x0.849 at 0.403 share (log5 0.0206 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.9632 \| starter alone would have been +0.003
STARTER Jacob Misiorowski21.6371 BF	Starter	Hits	3.512 → 3.570	+0.058	0.2169	0.1679n=640 Very good	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1706	-1.060	+0.072	-0.013 ok
		Strikeouts	7.577 → 7.359	-0.218	0.2212	0.3593n=640 Very good	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3489	+2.987	-0.166	-0.057 ok
		Walks	1.913 → 2.009	+0.096	0.0889	0.0727n=640 Good	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0764	-0.350	+0.095	-0.016 ok
		Home runs	0.285 → 0.302	+0.017	0.0304	0.0235n=640 Very good	0.03227/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0249	-0.148	+0.038	-0.009 ok
RELIEVER DL Hall2.5875 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.450 → 0.457	+0.007	0.2169	0.1738n=234 Very good	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1767	-0.111	+0.009	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.657 → 0.635	-0.022	0.2212	0.2538n=234 Good	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2453	+0.084	-0.020	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.317 → 0.332	+0.015	0.0889	0.1226n=234 Poor	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1284	+0.087	+0.011	+0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.071 → 0.075	+0.004	0.0304	0.0273n=234 Average	0.03227/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0289	-0.008	+0.005	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Aaron Ashby2.2472 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.947 → 0.961	+0.015	0.2169	0.2024n=372 Good	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2055	-0.033	+0.007	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.636 → 1.584	-0.052	0.2212	0.2869n=372 Very good	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2777	+0.148	-0.017	-0.003 ok
		Walks	0.595 → 0.624	+0.029	0.0889	0.1039n=372 Below average	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1089	+0.034	+0.010	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.123 → 0.131	+0.007	0.0304	0.0251n=372 Good	0.03227/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0266	-0.012	+0.004	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Chad Patrick2.035 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.405 → 0.412	+0.006	0.2169	0.1991n=438 Good	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2023	-0.036	+0.007	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.435 → 0.420	-0.015	0.2212	0.2137n=438 Average	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2062	-0.015	-0.016	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.212 → 0.222	+0.010	0.0889	0.1041n=438 Below average	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1092	+0.031	+0.009	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.057 → 0.060	+0.003	0.0304	0.0278n=438 Average	0.03227/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0294	-0.005	+0.004	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER JoJo Romero2.035 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.439 → 0.446	+0.007	0.2169	0.2159n=233 Average	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2192	-0.002	+0.007	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.460 → 0.444	-0.016	0.2212	0.2259n=233 Average	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2181	+0.009	-0.016	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.162 → 0.170	+0.008	0.0889	0.0794n=233 Average	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0834	-0.019	+0.009	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.062 → 0.065	+0.004	0.0304	0.0303n=233 Average	0.03227/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0320	-0.000	+0.004	0 ok
RELIEVER Antonio Senzatela1.6964 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.386 → 0.392	+0.006	0.2169	0.2274n=303 Below average	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2309	+0.018	+0.006	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.335 → 0.323	-0.012	0.2212	0.1977n=303 Below average	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1906	-0.040	-0.013	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.144 → 0.151	+0.007	0.0889	0.0847n=303 Average	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0889	-0.007	+0.007	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.044 → 0.047	+0.003	0.0304	0.0261n=303 Good	0.03227/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0276	-0.007	+0.003	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Abner Uribe1.6964 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.787 → 0.799	+0.012	0.2169	0.2018n=230 Good	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2050	-0.025	+0.006	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.141 → 1.103	-0.038	0.2212	0.2538n=230 Good	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2454	+0.055	-0.013	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.278 → 0.291	+0.014	0.0889	0.0826n=230 Average	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0867	-0.011	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.036 → 0.038	+0.002	0.0304	0.0245n=230 Very good	0.03227/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0259	-0.010	+0.003	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Trevor Megill1.6121 BF	Closer	Hits	0.625 → 0.635	+0.010	0.2169	0.1936n=242 Very good	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1967	-0.037	+0.005	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.202 → 1.163	-0.039	0.2212	0.2692n=242 Good	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2604	+0.077	-0.012	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.210 → 0.221	+0.011	0.0889	0.0726n=242 Good	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0763	-0.026	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.012 → 0.013	+0.001	0.0304	0.0212n=242 Very good	0.03227/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0224	-0.015	+0.003	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Kyle Harrison0.9754 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.224 → 0.228	+0.003	0.2169	0.2300n=505 Below average	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2335	+0.013	+0.003	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.265 → 0.256	-0.009	0.2212	0.2713n=505 Good	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2624	+0.049	-0.007	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.074 → 0.077	+0.004	0.0889	0.0755n=505 Good	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0793	-0.013	+0.004	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.034 → 0.036	+0.002	0.0304	0.0353n=505 Below average	0.03227/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0373	+0.005	+0.002	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Shane Drohan0.721 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.162 → 0.165	+0.003	0.2169	0.2248n=528 Below average	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2282	+0.006	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.169 → 0.163	-0.006	0.2212	0.2347n=528 Average	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2267	+0.010	-0.005	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.061 → 0.064	+0.003	0.0889	0.0846n=528 Average	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0888	-0.003	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.020 → 0.022	+0.001	0.0304	0.0283n=528 Average	0.03227/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0299	-0.002	+0.001	-0.000 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Robbie Ray	Starter	22.6	5.0	4.943	6 / 4.800	4 / 3.710	1 / 2.922	3 / 2.834	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5.2	1.2	1.318	0 / 0.866	0 / 1.373	1 / 0.426	0 / 0.188	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Mason Miller	Closer	4.1	1.0	0.989	1 / 0.660	0 / 1.643	0 / 0.426	1 / 0.325	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	5.5	0.1	1.318	1 / 0.953	1 / 1.420	1 / 0.552	2 / 0.371	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	21.6	6.0	5.404	4 / 3.512	6 / 7.577	4 / 1.913	1 / 1.198	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5.6	1.0	1.351	3 / 0.947	0 / 1.636	0 / 0.595	2 / 0.398	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Abner Uribe	Setup Man	4.1	1.0	1.013	2 / 0.787	0 / 1.141	0 / 0.278	0 / 0.166	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Trevor Megill	Closer	3.9	1.0	1.013	1 / 0.625	1 / 1.202	0 / 0.210	1 / 0.257	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity148 checks	PASS	148 of 148 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.943
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Robbie Ray projected 22.6 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.404
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Jacob Misiorowski projected 21.6 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

Provenance. Read only from published artifacts and stored KPI value documents. Nothing is recomputed, so this document cannot disagree with what was published. Per-player metric adjustments are a measurement of the catalog at player level and are labelled as such throughout; the pipeline itself moved team runs, the win probability, and hitter lines by one club-wide ratio.